MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Best Bets For UFC 324 And 2026 Champion Picks And Longshots

Episode Date: January 21, 2026

The UFC is finally back! This Saturday, the world's leading MMA promotion returns from a six-week hiatus, kicking off 2026 with UFC 324. Headlined by an interim lightweight title fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett, UFC 324 is the first event of the UFC's new Paramount broadcast deal, and sets the tone for the next era of MMA. So, of course, No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Morning Kombat's Luke Noseda to discuss UFC 324, and predict the year-end champions for 2026. Topics discussed include whether Paddy Pimblett can complete his UFC title journey, how much Justin Gaethje has left in the tank, if Sean O'Malley will get a title shot with a win over Song Yadong, if Jean Silva is also fighting for a title shot, the start of a brand new Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 146 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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To the Vox Media Podcast Network. We're back, and I do mean back because it has been a long, long time since No Betts Bard was in your ear holes. That is right. MMA Fighting's Gambling podcast has finally returned after six weeks away because 2020, is here and it's here in full force. We have got an event coming up this weekend. Finally, UFC 324 goes down in Las Vegas to kickstart the year. Much has been said about that card.

Many more things will be said, but mainly, I'm just excited to be back in the mix, back in the heat of battle. Last year, devastatingly bad year for me, I lost so much money, not even counting the money I lost in the climb, which wasn't actually that bad overall, but was still a loser net. But frankly, that's okay. Because 2026, we wiped the slate clean, we starred anew, and it is a perfect, perfect place to start at U.S.C. 324

with our good friend Luke NoCed, a Long Island Luke from Morning Combat, main card minute, and of course, you all know it and you love it. Prop Quiz, Luke, it has been a long time off. We've chatted plenty in between then at various other intervals, but how you doing, man? How's this break treated you? Dude, the break has been weird. You know, it starts out at first and you kind of don't even know what to do with yourself. You're like, wait, there's no major MMA this week.

And then as it goes on, you kind of even forget that the sport ever existed. And you kind of get in that groove. And now it's been a little weird this week to kind of come back down to earth and be like, oh, shit, let's lock in. It's fight week. So I got to say, I'm a little like, I don't. don't know. I still think it hasn't hit me yet really as hard as it should. But either way, I'm freaking excited, man. We got a stack card. Let's get in. I am thrilled. You know, I've been

having to bet on high lie and things. I don't know anything about just to feel the rush again of losing money because that is all I did last year, a catastrophic year. But I intend to have an equally good this year to make up for how bad last year was. And as part of that, This year, we're going to finish the climb. I feel so good about it. This is iteration 10, I believe, which we will start this weekend. I have potentially a controversial choice. I don't think so, but it was the only thing I felt good about.

I haven't actually put it in yet. So you could even talk me off the ledge if you think I'm wrong, but we will get into all of that. And then at the end, Luke, you know this, but listeners, we will also be doing an year-end prediction section. So I do it at the start of every year. I will pick one champion in each weight class. Technically, I'll only be picking 10 because one of the weight classes does not have odds up.

I'll throw 10 bucks on each of them, and I'll try and make some money last year. Oh, for 10! Truly a terrible run. Though I will say I did at least get Magerman Ankelyev right in part, but he didn't end the year's champion. That would have actually saved me a whole lot of money had he done it, but alas was not to be. So, Luke, let's dive right into UFC 324. The first event of the new Paramount era, you know, historically these have been pay-per-views. I don't know what we're calling them now.

I'm just going to stick with pay-per-view, frankly, because other people are paying for it. America, it's not a pay-per-view, but, you know, not all pay-per-views were paper-views in other countries. So I'm calling it pay-per-views until they give us a better name. I don't like PLE. I think that's a stupid name, and I'm not going to do it. And this pay-per-view, Luke, look, a lot has been said about it. We know what the main event is. It is an interim lightweight contest between former interim champion Justin Gae

and one of the biggest stars in the sport right now, Patty Pimblet. Big fight, Pimbled, decent-sized favorite here. Minus 240, Gachie, the comeback plus 195 thereabouts. A little bit of background before we get into the matchup here, Luke, Gachie. Three and two over his last five, and he says, this is it. This is the fight for him. If he wins it, he continues on. If he loses, he may well retire. He is coming off a unanimous decision win over Hafeel Fiziv, his rematch with Fiziv, a U.C 313 in March. Pimbleau, 7 and O in the OC, that many people think he should have

one loss tucked in there. Coming off a TKO win over Michael Chandler at 314 back in April. So Luke, obviously people have talked all about the merit of this fight. fight, whether it should be for the interim belt, that's not what matters to us on Saturday. What matters is these two dudes are going to step into the cage and they are going to throw hammers at each other who is going to emerge victorious. Tell me your read and where we're feeling to kick things off. I can't get a read, Jed. I can't do it. I feel like this fight just goes one of two ways. It's either a patty sub or a Gaichi K.O. And like I'm trying to figure out which way. For a degree. Yeah, yeah. So Gachie does have the better striking accuracy and striking

defense, but he also has a negative striking differential. And he gets hit as often as Patty with over seven, oh, sorry, twice as often as Patty with over seven strikes absorbed per minute, which is absurd. If you're getting hit with seven strikes per minute, like, I don't even know how he's lasted this long in this sport. Uh, he lands more strikes per minute. Patty is no slouch, though. Patty lands five strikes per minute as well. Like, that's pretty damn good. This stays on the feet, though. I feel like Justin could get the upset. Like, it could definitely happen. Everyone always points to Justin's D1 wrestling background though is like, oh, how come he never uses it? I think if you don't use it, you fucking lose it.

This dude got taken down twice by Raphael Fiziv, bro. Do you lose it? Yeah, I'm talking 40-year-old virgin. He got taken down twice by Raphael Fiziv. What do you think Patty's going to be able to do? I'm not like Patty's like, oh, this great wrestler or anything, but Patty has taken down four of his last six opponents. Obviously, if he gets you down, he can take the back.

And if he takes the back, this fight probably isn't lasting long. 10 of Paddy's 23 pro wins have come by sub and Justin's been sub twice before, including his last two UFC title bouts. I'm not counting BMF title bouts because they're dumb and that doesn't count. I may take a Gaichi K.O. or Patty sub bet when that drops like the either or bet, but my official play is going to be the over one and a half, took it in a parley, minus 225. Gachie's hit it in three of his last four and Patty's hit it in four of his last five.

Ooh. I like that as a bet. I think that this has a real chance to go long here. I got to tell you, I don't have that many questions about it. I have one question about this fight. It's a very simple question. It's how good is Patty Pimblech chin? Because his head's straight up in the air.

Justin's going to tag him and Justin hits really hard. I think Patty can take Justin down. I don't think he's going to get him down the first time, the second time. But the third time will probably be the charm, and that'll be enough, it's whether he even gets to that level, right? Because if he's just going to get tagged beforehand, Justin Gachie is an extremely good fighter everywhere other than when he is on his back.

He is much like a turtle in that way. If you put him on his back, he has nothing to offer you. And so I get why Patty Pimble is the favorite. And I am not doubting that he can win. I want to be very clear. I will not be surprised. This is not me saying.

saying Patty Pimble is bum. This is me saying his chin is very up in the air. And I would like to, I'm not ready personally to let go of Justin Gichi. And if he loses, we probably are. Maybe you can get him to come back for another fight, a BMF belt or something like that. But I think the much more likely scenario is a loss on Saturday is the end of Justin Gage's career. And this fighter, he is the most exciting fighter in the history of this sport.

and I'm not ready to say goodbye to him. So selfishly, I picked him on my fantasy team this year. I'm going to pick him to beat Patty Pimble. And as a result, plus 195, I'm taking a shot on him as an underdog. And hopefully he will cash it out. And this will be great. I think you could look at other things here that are maybe a little bit more. But when I looked at the CO line, it's plus 450.

That is probably almost certainly like how he does win because a submission is not really there, but I don't know. It just seems fine to me to take a plus 200. I'm not getting that much extra juice. And I can cover my bases in case somehow this does go 25 minutes. So Justin Gaichi is my pick and my bet. And I really hope he pulls it off, man. I just shamelessly want him to win this fight. You're kind of inspiring me, A, to take him and B, you're so right, because he is the most exciting fighter. Has ever lived. Yeah, history of life.

And it's like, fuck, dude. If this is, Trevor Whitman said like, oh, if he loses, he's done. And I believe that. But I didn't, it didn't actually, like, click in my head until you said it. Like, if this is the last Justin Gachie fight, that really sucks. It sucks. It sucks so hard. Because, like, I've been calling Gachi the most exciting fighter alive for, like, years,

who's ever lived for years. And everybody is kind of just sort of agrees because it's really hard to argue the point at this like at the minimum he's in the conversation with like two other dudes but to hear him own it has been awesome to like him just coming up like i'm the most exciting fighter who's ever lived is great and i was on sub radio this past sunday uh with aaron sider and dennis and we all just sort of agreed we talked about everyone's like yeah he kind of is and nobody nobody wants the most exciting fighter to walk away from the sport when he still could do it like it would obviously be good for his health to walk away.

But like, I mean, you know, he'd just be Fazeve. Like, he's still got the juice. It's just maybe he doesn't have the title juice. And that's what he's in it for. So, uh, I won't feel bad if I lose because I am trying to will this man to a thing. Like, it would just be, I got to tell you, I'm not a big Alexander Volcanovsky fan. I don't hate him. Um, but like I don't love you.

Boo. I know. Everyone booze me and that's okay. But Volk laid out like a very, A perfect career ending of he beats Diego Lopez. He defends the belt against Mavisar or Lorone Murphy. And then he goes up to lightweight for one final crack. And I got to tell you, that's a fairy tale ending.

That would be dope. If that last crack came against Justin Gachie, the now undisputed lightweight champion who beats Patty Pimblit and Ilya either vacates or somehow Gachy beats him, that would just be the most incredible thing ever. So that's the storyline I'm pulling for. now. Those two old dudes to fight for the lightweight belt at the end of 2026.

That's a fight I've never really thought about. And that is a banger of a fight. Again, as a well-known Volcanovsky hater, people think I don't like, I wish he wasn't a featherweight. I think it's very stupid that he's doing this. Because I don't know what it means to beat Diego Lopez a second time. Like that, I just don't know how to rate that at all as like a historically significant victory. it's not nothing, but I don't know that it's much. And like, who cares what you do as the not really best featherway in the world?

Like, Ilya is he just left. So why are you doing this? Just go be a lightweight and fight fun dudes. Like, I would have loved to watch outside of just fighting Islam. Like, why can't I watch Volkovsky fight Charles Oliva? That would rip. Like, why can't I watch him fight Justin Gagie? Or I know he retired, but Dustin Porre.

Those would have been awesome fights that we could have had, but instead he's just like, still like holding on to featherweight that I don't think people care about. But that's a different soapbox for a different time. We got stuff to talk about, including the co-main event on Saturday, a three-round bantam weight contest. Originally, of course, this was supposed to be the fight, the merit fight, the good fight. The Amanda Nunes, Kayla Harrison, long-awaited bout.

That has been postponed after a neck injury forced Kayla Harrison to get. surgery hope she comes back soon and healthy but in its stead shan o'malley former bannamweight champion gets bumped up to co-main of its status as he takes on song yadong in a pretty significant bannam weight fight frankly maybe not but it really feels like sean o'malley despite what's happened maybe fighting for a title shot here he is your betting favorite minus 200 the comeback on songy dong around plus 165. O'Malley on that two-fight losing streak, both to Marab de Valishvili.

He was tapped out. Most recently, he got submitted by Marab at UFC 316. Song, meanwhile, three and two over his past five, but he is coming off that very solid win over Henry Suhudo, a technical decision after some weirdness that went on, but a fight that absolutely Song was winning, regardless of how it got wonky at the end there. How are we feeling about this one, Luke?

This one took a hit for me when it became the Comain, I got to say, like out of all the fights on the, like this Arnold Allen-John Silva fight to me is such a banger. I know they're not going to take it off the opening slot, but like that to me arguably better Comane. Anyways, O'Malley lands twice as often as he gets hit. He lands more strikes for minute than song, and he's going to have a five-inch reach advantage here.

He's clearly the better striker, song is well-rounded and he's taken down five of his 15 UFC opponents, including Peotor Yan, who like, we saw Marab have trouble with that in the most recent bout. It just feels like Song comes up short, though, every time he gets a chance at like the top of this division, you know, he lost to Yon, he lost to Corey, O'Malley. I still put him up there in the top of that division. Sean's take down defense, also probably the best it's ever been coming off back-to-back camps against Marab, even if he wasn't able to stuff those, feel like against someone like

song who's not as good of a wrestler, he should be able to. to. I'm confident O'Malley's going to be able to keep this standing and either win a clear decision, maybe even a late TKO. Either way, I'm rocking with Sugar Sean O'Malley here, took him in a parlay money line. Yeah, hard to argue, frankly, here. The question for me is only like, you know, Sean has lost two in a row. Is that going to affect him coming into this? But stylistically, this is just a super favorable matchup for, in my opinion, has a very clear, size advantage. Song is not like a huge take-down artist.

He's gotten some, but he does not shoot them that often. And this really lines up well. I love who song is and what song continues to develop and be. But this seems like he is like a perfect setup fight for the UFC's ultimate ambition to get Sean O'Malley to fight Pele de Yon again. And I think there's a very real chance that happens that Sean, look, Sean O'Malley is a very weird fighter. He is a very, very curious guy to rate historically because his path to the title was really weak.

And then a great, like, beating Piotrion is a great win. Most people don't think he beat him. Though it's not a robbery, right? So, like, but it is weird to rate that, like, super highly. And then he kills Aljo, which is a great win. Who gives his shit about the Cheeto Vero win? that's functionally meaningless, and then immediately loses twice. So he is a hard guy to sort of have a concept of where he truly fits in this weight class.

But just based on what he has done and sort of how I've seen him fight, I like his chances against Song here. Also, to note, you know, he is largely paid off as a betting favorite, eight and two when he comes in as a betting favorite. And Song is two and two as a dog, not a great dog line. I will note that I didn't mention this for the last fight. Gachi, do you know what Gachi is as an underdog? Because it is an astonishing record

as an underdog for Justin Gachy. I'm going to assume it's a winning record. It's a really winning record. What are we talking? Seven and three as a dog. Damn. I was shocked when I pulled that up. So Pimbley, obviously never lost, but.

I know he was a dog in the most recent physique fight because I took him as a dog in that. I can't even remember. I think he was a dog in the first one. one too. I'd have to go look, but hold on. I can pull that up right now and it'll be pretty easy to check, but he was definitely a dog to Viseev. He was actually a favorite over Max, which is funny, because I made a lot of money on Max that night. But he was a dog in the rematch to Porre. He was a dog to Viziv the first time. He was a dog to Habib, obviously, but he was

a dog to Tony in the Tony fight. Like, he's been a dog a lot. But I think largely because of his style you know like he gets hit so much it's easy to tell him but seven and three is an underdog it's a hell of a record and he's going to be eight and three sunday morning let's go uh so yeah i'm on shone emalley i just got him straight i think minus two hundred's a very fair price uh i genuinely considered climbing with him but that feels a little ambitious and there's one there's one fighter that i felt a little bit better about in that climb spot so let's move on to the feature bout of the evening heavy weights luke heavy weights waldo cortez acosta he of the monstrously successful uh... twenty twenty five campaign taking on derrick lewis acosta minus three hundred lewis plus two

forty wca four and one last year uh... back-to-back knockout wins uh... he is the most recent was over shemil gazzev back in november meanwhile derrick lewis on a two-fight winning streak of his own TKOed Talison Tshara in July. Derek Lewis, one of the most popular fighters on roster. Famously,

he is Donald Trump's favorite fighter. Win or lose, it's likely he's competing at the UFC White House card, but if he beats WCA, he might be fighting at the White House card for some sort of gold. Whereas WCA came out nowhere, right? Like before last

year, this was a dude who nobody cared about because he tackled rebellus to Spain. And then, you know, a knight's tale, baby, he changed his stars in one year and is suddenly the hottest thing going at heavyweight. Luke, how are you feeling about a fight that I never would have imagined has like meaningful stakes and is something people are super looking forward to? But that's where we are in 2026, man. Dude.

See, I feel like this fight's flying under the radar and it's a banger. And you mentioned that Robelis the Spain fight. I'm like still salty about that. But, you know, I don't want to talk about that too long. WCA lands twice as many strikes per minute as Derek. And Derek gets hit twice as often as he lands. I was also kind of surprised. Dude, Derek Lewis only lands two and a half strikes per minute.

I guess I shouldn't be so surprised when you think back to like the Angano fight. But for a striker in general, that's like really low numbers. Like you see those kind of numbers with grapplers usually. And Derek Lewis, he ain't a grappler, bro. He does have that fuck you power though. I guess it really only just takes one and that's why he doesn't need to throw as often. I don't know.

He lets the fight come to him and then he kills you. That's just how that goes. That's exactly, yeah. I guess he's just a good counter. There you go. This will most likely stay on the feet. Naturally, I'd favor the age and momentum of salsa boy.

But I really don't know what to expect with salsa boy anymore. Jed, you mentioned like how he totally changed hands. I swore he was a guaranteed heavyweight over and now he's gotten he's a hundred of his last five. Buddy, as the perpetrator of heavyweight overs, he was. We loved him so much in the heavyweight over nation. He's literally who comes to mind when I say heavyweight over out loud, but he's gotten

chaos in three of his last five and two straight. Like he is no longer a heavyweight over guy. Derek Lewis hates heavyweight overs. He's a heavyweight under guy, okay? Knock on the distance in 10 of his last 11. I'm going to just root for violence here, dude. I took fight does not go the distance. I love the price at minus 240 for a heavyweight.

fight parlayed it with the over one and a half in the main event got it at plus 105 uh i like that in general because i do think that's sort of where wca is now and i know that sergey and he went to the distance but it's not really how derrick lewis gets down i think they're going to get their boogie i really like wca in this fight um i wish i didn't i want to believe in derrick lewis because i think it would be deeply funny for derrick lewis who is an old man at this point 40s years old, about to be 41 in just a couple of weeks here. But, and, and look, I do not want to totally disrespect his current win streak, because I definitely bettered him against Regigo Nassimento.

I don't remember if I bet on him against Talasin Desher. I probably didn't. But Rijigo Nassiminto is not very good. Talosin DeSherr puts his head directly into the air and he got, got punished for it. The thing about WCA, he's never been knocked out. Not that, not just that. He's never been dropped. And I know Derek Lewis has, you know, a power.

Like real, real lunchbox that he's swinging. But the fact that WCA has never really been hurt, you know, I know he got knocked out in boxing, not quite the same thing, is still, it gives me a lot of confidence in him coming into this fight. Because I do think Derek Lewis is a little bit washed. He is basically all in on knocking you out. And Waldo Ken, now, has found his own power and can put Derek down or he can play sort of a cagey or boring game

if need be. And so riding the momentum, riding WCA here, and I'm riding him right up the mountain, baby. This is going to be the first step of our climb. For those who do not know, the climb is my, it's my dream, my ambition, my life's work to string together 30 consecutive bets. You started a hundred bucks. You keep rolling them one into the other, into the other, the other you get well over you get into the five figures if you string 30 of them together I don't remember the exact number actually I might have it

in front of me if I look for but it's like 28 grand or something insane if you can string 30 of them together our highest climb was 21 steps and I'm still heartbroken about stupid ass Daniel Zell Hubert who ruined my dreams

and I'll never forgive him for it oh against Michael Johnson who's fighting on this card sure was Um, ruin my dreams. Unfortunately, he gets a little bit of a past because I was also climbing with Kevin Holland right after that who then also ruined my dreams. So,

you know, we, it's not the worst thing, but we didn't know how good we had it when we were up that high up the mountain. But this is the first step of our journey to 30. Um, am I crazy for backing WCA with the first step of the climb? I don't think you're crazy.

I mean, the odds don't think you're crazy. And I'm favoring. him here as well. What I will say is back when we were on the commain, you were like, you know, I considered O'Malley as my climb. And I was thinking, wow, what a great climb

because of the price. You know, he's minus 200 or whatever right now. Like, damn, that's pretty good climb. You normally go maybe a little. It's actually, it's actually close to three. So in that sense, dude, I kind of just, I like the odds better on O'Malley and getting

two steps in one rather than risking it with salsa boy here. I mean, I'm still getting pretty close to two steps here and it's not three steps. Like you do what is yeah right now though? Like minus three something. It's minus three for for WCA at my book.

Oh, just straight up three. Straight up three at my book so. All right. Yeah, that's not bad. I just part of me is like I'm going to throw in a Derek Lewis bet. It's not my official bet but I'm definitely going to have to sprinkle one in there. I mean I understand that. I'll tell you what. There is another thing that I was

again, I haven't put anything in yet. but this is the one I this is where I'm leaning this is the one I'm feeling the best about there is however at least one other fight that I am that was in consideration I have some qualms

about it so let's get into it because it's the next fight we're going to be talking about it's the women's flyway contest Natalia Silva taking on Rosemu Yunus in a straight up title eliminator I don't think the UFC has announced it as such but Natalia Silva should frankly be fighting for the belt

already instead she's fighting rose rose nominus super popular rosemunus today as the time of recording went on arohael hawani show and said she was told with a win she will fight valentin of shipchenko this is a flyweight title eliminator uh also arguably it should be the co-main of it but i get what they're doing with shana malley natalia sylva big big favorite here minus 475 the comeback on rose plus 350 natty i a 7 and O in the UFC. UD win over Alexa Grasso at UFC 315 last May. Rose, obviously a former two-time strawweight champion,

moved up to flyweight, had some success, but not as much as maybe you would have anticipated only three and two in the weight class. She's coming off a unanimous decision win over Miranda Maverick back at UFC Atlanta last June. Where are we on this title eliminator bout, Luke? All right.

And you just mentioned them, but like first things first, the odds on this fight are just absolutely insane. Even if Natty Ice will clearly win this fight, it's just absurd that Rose is plus 350. I was looking for literally any reason I could to take her because of that. I was like, oh shit, Rose is a plus 350, but I really couldn't find many reasons to back her up, dude. Silva lands more strikes per minute.

She gets hit less often. And while Rose has looked to wrestle more recently, landing a takedown in four straight fights, Natale has a 92% takedown defense, which is pretty damn good. She also stuffed all six of Jasmine Jazzavissie's take down attempts. So like, she's pretty fucking damn legit. She has been taken down twice in the UFC though. So, you know, Rose maybe could get one.

Odds wise, going to have to throw in a rose spread bet, jet. I just have to, you know, the plus three and a half she could steal around here. Maybe it's 29, 28 unanimous, maybe, whatever. It doesn't matter. But my official play, I'm going to take fight goes the distance. I wanted to take the over two and a half. I'm a big over two and a half guy. But fight,

I had to get this a plus money. So I took fight goes the distance parlayed. It was Sean O'Malley Money line at plus 100. Over two and a half wouldn't have been plus money. Silvas hit it in four straight fights and Rose. God damn, excuse me. Roses hit it in seven straight fights. Okay.

So I think I know where you're going to say when I, when I proffer this because I agree wholeheartedly. I don't think there's, I just don't think there's going to be takedowns in this fight. I think this fight is going to compete on the feet. and I think people dramatically underestimate how good Rosnam Yunus is when fights are just exclusively about striking. She almost always wins those fights, right?

Like she lost to Manon in a fight that was very, very close. Mano Fior is obviously extremely good as well, and that was her first fight up at Flyweight. If they ran it back, I think Manal would be a favorite, and I think I'd be betting on Rose. Natalia Silva is a little bit more active. I think Rose is just a much more dynamic fighter and this is sort of where she thrives.

She's six and three as an underdog for reference. Though two of those three losses have come at flyweight. Also should be known. I just think the odds are super off here and so I'm going to be taking a bet on Rose at plus 350. I think that is a huge price. For a fight that will be exclusively on the feet, neither woman has like a huge physical edge.

And I think that fight might. play out very well for rose so on rose what i have looked at what was basically there were three options i had as climbs and i think i and i decided wca felt the best to me uh in part because you're getting a little bit better price there the other option is here as mentioned and you you said it the over two and a half it is minus 500 rose has gone to a decision in all five of her flyweight bouts Natalia Silva, seven bouts in the UFC. She has hit the over in five of them. Two stoppages.

One was a third round stoppage against Teresa Bleda, so that was actually fairly close. And then she smoked Victoria Leonardo. Neither of those women are very good, frankly. I do anticipate this going along. The odds suggest it. That's why it's minus 500. Do we think that's better? Do we just think that's better than the WCA at minus 300 for the close?

I got to say, I think it's 1,000% better. But, you know, I'm also the person with the fight goes the distance bet on this. And I didn't really have a dog in the race in the WCA one. So naturally, I'm going to side with this. But to me, this feels like a sure thing. This fight goes the distance. I understand it. I think where I have like a little bit of concern is I have so much confidence in WCA to win this fight.

And it hasn't happened in a really long time. But Natalia Silva has been stopped before. And so that gives me some pause. And it's just like over two and a halfs are just so sweaty because you're just, you're just waiting. You are waiting the whole fight. But you might be right. You might be right. So maybe what we will do is put Rose Natalia Silva over two and a half.

I think I think I can do that. I think I can do that. And I don't have to feel that bad about that choice. so Rosnamu Eunice I'm penciling this in so I can get my bets down as as need be that's going to be our climb let's go what are we going to do with WCA then yeah you could I mean if you really want to get cocky you could go like one and a half here parlayed with I mean I might just I might just no no if I was going to do if I'm going to do I'm just going to double step the climb and go just just just parlay the two for the first climb bet uh

And you know what? Let's live a little. It's the first one. It's the first one. Let's get two steps up the mountain. Not going to be three because I have real concerns about the other one that I thought about, which we'll get to momentarily. But we're going to put both of those down as a double step for the climb this week.

And let's see. Let's get off to a really strong start in 2026. Hey, it's Olivia from Ollie. I got to tell you, I saw when you asked AI about probiotics. No judgment. But I think Ollie. can help. Probiotics are the good bacteria that support your digestive and immune system. Just two gummies a day to bring balance to your gut. So, save the AI for drafting that reply to your

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No weird wet salad aftertaste. Better sleep can start tonight. Go to OLLY.com to choose your snooze. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. Speaking of getting off to a strong

start, though the final main card fight here is a banger as you previously mentioned. It is a featherweight contest. Arnold Allen takes on Jean Silva and a fight that is going to be fun because I think Arnold Allen is one more fun than people give him credit for. And Jean Silva has basically never been in a boring fight ever.

Alan, decent size underdog plus 225. The comeback on Silva minus 300. Actually, I think that price has moved last I was looking at my book. We pull this up because I think that price is different now. Minus 325 for Silva at the book I have, which I have. will not say and plus 240 for alan so a little bit of money still coming in on on lord silver alan has not fought in 18 months that last fight was unanimoussition win over giga chicade a uc c o four in july of 2024 meanwhile jean silva incredibly active fighting nerd but he is coming off the first

loss of his uc career a tk o stoppage to diego lopez in a fight that he sure was about to win until got way too cocky and Aiden a spinning elbow for his trouble. My beautiful boy down he went and his title aspirations took a hit because he would be the man fighting Alexander Volcanovsky if he could

have been a little bit more patient in the process of beating the shit out of Diego Lopez. But that's not what happened and so here we are he gets on it Allen and Alan's return fight. How are we feeling about this featherweight contest loop? This is literally my favorite fight

than a night. Like this, this is my main event. I'm so excited for this fucking fight. Arnold Allen, worth noting, does not have a win over a currently ranked featherweight, despite being what, top five, top 10 right now. He has fought three guys that are currently ranked. Two of them have moved to lightweight being Dan Hooker and Max Holloway. The only guy he's actually fought in the top 15 of featherweight is Mopsar of Loyav. He obviously lost that fight. Silva, not really beating anyone in the top of the division either, with the exception of his Dana White Contender Series fight when he beat Kevin Vigejos, who's currently ranked

number 13. That win is obviously aging fantastically, but his actual UFC run has been all against currently on rank guys. Silva does land more strikes per minute, but he also gets hit twice as often as Arnold Allen. Arnold Allen has better striking defense. He'll also have a slight height and reach

advantage, and I'm not saying he's going to shoot. He's just a bigger dude. I'm not saying he's going to shoot either, because he doesn't usually wrestle, but he has taken down five different opponents in the UFC, and Silva definitely been susceptible to the takedowns before. He's taken down four times in his last two fights. I just want to say in general, dude,

I think the odds on John Silva's last four fights have been absolutely wild, and I'm pretty sure I've taken the dog every single time. Obviously, I've looked like an idiot. That hasn't really worked out for you that much. I've looked pretty terrible every single time, except that Diego Lopez fight, you mentioned. It was like plus 220.

Thank you very much. I'm just a real roller coaster, because the first round you look like a genius. The second round, you look like a genius. an idiot until you look like a genius. It doesn't matter. Fight ended, baby. I don't think this fight will go the same way. In fact, I see it coming by decision.

But either way, dude, I am taking the dog yet again against John Silva. I'm riding with Arnold Allen money line plus 240, baby. Let's go. I don't hate it because Arnold Allen is basically Roy McDonald. And he's just really hard to look good against and to win fights against. My biggest concern here is the 18-month layout. for Arnold Allen. I've really liked Arnold Island, but I think his time has come and gone. He was simply too injured and not active enough. And, you know, this is a guy who should have fought for a

belt. You would have at some point he would have and he could never get over the hump with the big win to do it. And he's just been so inactive throughout his UFC career that I just, it's hard for me to believe in him, even though I like Arnold Island a lot. And he's still only 31, which kind of seems wild because he's been in the promotion forever at this point. But Jean Silva is just a much more dynamic dude. I do agree that this is going along. I think this is going to the cards because Arnold Island is defensively sound. But I just think John Silva has too much significant offense.

And Arnold Allen can be a little plotting, a little, you know, his offense maybe doesn't stand out as much. And so Jean Silva is going to get the better of exchanges. and win a decision. And so I'm looking at Jean Silva by decision at plus 165. I think that price at minus 325 is, that's just too high. But I really don't love Silva's chances of getting Arnold Allen out of there. And so a decision prop bet feels like you're getting some value. So that's what I'm looking at for John Silva.

Do you think regardless of what happens in Volk Diego, too, that John Silva with a win gets the title shot? Or do you think they go Lorone or Obloyo? I do not think it is regardless. I think it could happen, depending on how impressive Jean-Silva is if he wins

and sort of Volk's decision. If Diego beats Volk and Volk wants to fight again and doesn't want to take like a huge layoff, they'll just run the trilogy bout. If Volk wins, I think it's very, very possible, especially if Sean Silver.

gets a big win. Because, you know, nothing being confirmed, heavily rumored that Movsar and Laurel Murphy are fighting at the return to London later this year. And ostensibly, that would be a number one contenders bout. In this new day and age, I just straight up don't know if Movsar Evelov's going to be allowed to fight for the title. They just might not allow him to fight for the belt. So I think a win he is very live for a title fight.

if he beats Arnold Island impressively on Saturday. But I don't think he's the frontrunner, but I do think he is not far out of the mix, if that makes sense. And that's our main car for USC 324. Still got a couple of really good fights to talk about, but the rest of this, we will go a little bit faster on because there's also some filler here.

Let's be straight up. Let's be honest about it. This isn't filler, though it is enormous odds, frankly. the prelim main event is going back to the bantamweight division and you know i would say it's unlikely but not impossible for this to be a title eliminator for one of the men involved umar namadov takes on davison figurado umar the biggest betting favorite on the card the biggest betting favorite of the year probably even by the time the year ends minus sixteen hundred against Figgie Smalls plus a thousand

the comeback for the former flyway champion. Umar 7 and 1 in the UFC obviously lost to Maraub last January in his title fight, a competitive fight that he did lose and then took a competitive win over Mario Batista at UC321 that maybe

slowed some energy behind him. Figgie, four and two since bumping up to 135 pounds coming off a split decision win over Montel Jackson in October. Figgie continuing, just for context. Every underdog on this card so far has basically been a cash cow as an underdogs,

the exception of Song You Dong, Derek Lewis, 11 and 7 as an underdog. Rosamian, Eunice, I mentioned six and three, Ard Allen three and two as a dog, and Figgy Small, six and three as an underdog. And he is a big, big underdog against the guy everyone thought win the belt last year and didn't and really had kind of a disappointing 2025. Is he going to have a better year this year? Is this price remotely acceptable, Luke? The price isn't remotely acceptable, but at the same time,

I'm not even going to bother throwing anything on Davidson Figurato. This fight like sounds fun on paper. I think just because of the name value, you're getting a former champ. You're getting arguably the number one guy at Bannamweight. But it's just, it's going to be one-sided. It's going to be probably pretty fucking boring. Umar lands twice the amount of strikes per minute as Figgi and he gets hit less often. Not only that, but Figgi has a negative striking differential.

Real factor here like any Umar fight is obviously going to be the wrestling. He averages almost five takedowns per 15 minutes. Figgy's take down defense 57%, which is pretty bad. He's also been taken down in three straight fights. He's been taken down in all five of his UFC losses and he's been taken down in more than half of his UFC fights. Odds way too crazy to take Umar money line, but I'll gladly take an Umar. decision bet at minus 120. I'm going to parlay it. I haven't actually taken it yet, so I don't know what I'm going to parlay it with, but four of his seven UFC wins have come by decision and

Figgies lost by decision twice before, dude. Am I crazy that this fight definitely goes to the distance? And you're getting a minus 1,600 favorite at minus 120 to go the distance? Like, that seems wild. I think you're crazy that it definitely goes the distance. I do think by decision you're getting almost undeniably good value on. Yeah. I think, and now my bet will reveal why. I was, before I looked at the odds, I assumed I would be climbing with Umar because he is going to win this fight. And then I looked at the odds like, well, I can't do that.

The climb is minus 500, not minus 5,000. So he's going to win this fight. I have placed or will be placing a wager on Umar by sub at plus 210. Uh, you know, Umar goes to decision more than he gets finishes, but when he finishes people, it's like seven of eight are submissions or whatever and I this seems so one-sided of a fight to me of he is going to tackle figgy can figgy survive 15 minutes if he plays full defense he could but I think figgy's going to try and move and the other thing is god bless davis and figurato who probably a hall of famer great fighter dude is 38 like he is old he's an old man at this point

in a way class like this against the young guys. dude who is significantly larger than him and uh i think it's just going to tackle him to great effect get on the back and and send a statement that still won't get him a title fight which kind of sucks for him but it's sort of the nature of 135 right now and everything that is going on in this weight class but uh plus 210 just felt like a pretty good price there so i actually like either that a decision or submission like either prop whichever you're feeling better i think those are way better choices than putting him in a parlay at minus a billion. So,

100%. But I do just think, I think Figgie is done. And he didn't even look great against Montel Jackson. I think he might just be done. And so I'm backing a finish here. Might look stupid if last year in my bets or anything, everything I've told you is wrong. I'm going to lose a million dollars.

We move on to a bet and a fight that I don't think anyone can screw. up here. It's very straightforward. It's middleweight contest. A taba, Atabh, a table of Gautier takes on Andre Pulaev, Gautier, minus 850, Pulaev plus 575, Gotea 3 and O in the UFC coming off contender series. All knockouts, I think all bonuses, maybe not all bonuses, a lot of bonuses in there. TKO Tristan Vines in October. Pulive, one in one in the UFC, knocked out Nick Klein back in August to get back to 500 in the promotion. Gautier, I'm just going to run this very quickly, Luke, and you can say your piece if you have anything to add. Gotea kills people, and Palliav can be killed.

So even though I think Andre Pallive could maybe make this a little more interesting, he is a, I would say, a slight step up in competition here. This is a set up fight for Gautier to get an emphatic victory. Maybe it doesn't come in the first round. Maybe it comes in round two. But a table of Gautier, I have as much. stock as I can have. I loved him coming off Contender series. I think he's going to do violent

violent things on Saturday night. House, what say you? I was just going to say, I think every time we do a breakdown, we're breaking down in a Tebow-Gautier fight, and it checks out, dude. This is his third straight fight on a pay-per-view. And I was going to, I wrote, I don't know about you, but you already went before me. I do know

about you. My opinion has not changed on him much at all in this amount of time. And if anything, those last couple of fights have just reiterated what we thought about him. He lands twice the amount of strikes per Piliyev gets hit three times as often. Gautier's striking differential is even more impressive, though. He lands six times more often than he gets hit.

And like you mentioned, when he hits you, you go down. Seven of his eight pro wins have come by K.O., including all three of his UFC wins. Pulli have been K-Oed before. Not much more we need to say here. I'm taking a Tiba by KO in a parlay. It is minus 600, which, you know, very pricey. But, you know, it's got...

There's two prices to even put as the climb, which I honestly just straight up would have, because this he is 23 like that dude he's fighting for a belt i just have so much so much confidence in that happening but uh yeah man so what i did do there's some look we talked about it offline there are some gimmick paulets available we got a couple of silvas we got a couple of johnsons i got a gimmick paulet that i guarantee you nobody else has nobody else has this one together and a table goatea he is the first step of that um oh my book actually has gotier by I. KO. at minus 425, which honestly. Well, the good news is I didn't actually take it yet. I just wrote

what the odds were. Sorry. My book is at minus 425. I could, I could be climbing with a table. Oh, well, yeah, you should. I could, I could have three climb steps with WCA, Silva Rose over 500, and a table. Check my socials. We might also make that, that legitimately, that might be a thing, even though it's sort of insane to climb with, uh, That kind of, I'm kind of interested in that. But yeah, I've got a tabas, the first half of a two-leg gimmick parlay, which I will explain when we get to the other leg. And then you'll see how the puzzle all comes together. Scambling to figure it out right now.

You'll never, you'll never, never is going to get it. But you won't have to wait long because the next fight we are talking about, here it is. Modestis Bukowsk is taking on Nikita Krillow. any late heavyweight contest, uh, the middle prelim card, all of it's on Paramarama Plus, so it kind of doesn't really matter,

but the opener for the middle prelims. Krilov plus 130 underdog, Modestis Buchauskis minus 165, a very slight favorite. Krillov on a two-fight skid, uh, both knockouts got caoed by Bogdan Gusov in July. Meanwhile,

Modestis Bukowskis, quietly on a four-fight winning streak at light heavyweight, knocked out Paul Craig in September, uh, to sort of keep this momentum train rolling. How do you feel about this one, Luke? Can I guess the parlay now that I know it's this fight? Is it fighters not born in England, but who train in England or something?

No. I believe Atiba and Bukowska's both train in England, but neither are from England. That is not the parley. It's a much better gimmick. All right, good, good. Krilov, he's got the better striking numbers, Lanzomor strikes for a minute, and he gets hit less often. Bukowska's negative striking differential.

that's never good, dude. Not only that, Bukkowskis. That is never good. You're right. Bukowskis been outstruck in five of his seven UFC wins. His wins he's getting outstruck in. Khrlov does like to grapple. He averages over two takedowns for 15 minutes and having landed at least one takedown in

nine of his last 12 UFC fights. Bukkowskis does have an 80% takedown defense. And no, he hasn't been taken down once in the four-fight win streak. You mentioned, but he was taken down in three straight before that. So I don't really know. if he shorted up or just hasn't been getting shot on as much.

But the stats are actually making me lean Krilov. And while he is still just 33 years old, he's been fighting professionally for 14 years, dude. He's been chaoed in two straight, like you mentioned. I think I naturally just got a side with the younger fighter here, riding the momentum. I'm going to take Modestis Bukowskis money line in a parlay. But I also like this fight end by K.O. prop.

It's minus 190. 45% of their combined pro fights have ended by K.O. and they've both been caoed a combined seven times before, including both of their last two losses. I like Bukowskis here. For all the reasons you said, mainly the biggest one is I think Kulloch's just kind of washed. He's been fighting so long.

He's looked so bad. He had the big long layoff and then got clobbered a bunch. Like he, I think he might just be done. And Bukakis on a bit of a heater has knockout power. 8 and 1 is a favorite. So Vegas has him pretty well. pegged when they put him as a favorite he he mostly pays that off so i like buchoskis and he is

parlayed with the tabogotee not for the reasons you said but if you go over to tapology or if you are just a bit of a flagophile if you if you know the nation's flags very well a tabogotee is from camroon modestis bucowskos lithuania those two flags share a lot in common specifically their color palettes Cameroon is a green, red, and yellow flag. So is Lithuania, also a green, red and yellow tricolor. This is the red, green and yellow parlay. The two of them together pays out a minus 120. Let's go for primary colors, baby.

Good. The red, green, and yellow, and the, we train in England, but aren't from here. I didn't realize that at all, but I was looking through. I was like, man, there's a lot of Americans on this card. Man, oh, Lithuanian Cameroon. I didn't realize that those two flags were this. exact same color palette. And here we are.

Boom goes to dynamite. Modestis Bukowskis. A table of Gautier, they're going to cash a minus 120 ticket for me on Saturday. I was making my gimmick parlays, and I had an England parlay with Patty and Arnold Allen. And then I was like, do I add Gautier and Bukowskis?

Because like they train there. They're not from there. You know, I left them out, but I wanted to acknowledge that, you know, fair. Look, there are several gimmicks running around out there. You can go. I just gave you a new one.

That's why you come to no-bets bar. Nobody else has the red-green and yellow parlay. I guarantee you. We move on to the early prelims a flyaway contest. Alex Perez takes on Charles Johnson. Charles Johnson minus 220 betting favorite Perez plus 170. Perez 1 in 4 over his past 5. Got submitted by Osama Bayev in November.

Johnson, 4 and 1 over his past 5. Knocked out Lonnie Kavanaugh in August. Fightie was losing, but it doesn't matter if you are losing if you can finish the fight. Charles Johnson also famous is a win over new flyweight champion Joshua Vand. So this man is maybe not that far off from fighting for a belt if things break right for him. How are you feeling about this flyweight bout? I mean, it's good matchup on paper.

And like, you're right, Charles Johnson does feel like he could be a couple wins away from a tight shot, but he is also 35 years old. He's got to kind of just win out if he needs to get that back. But anyways, both guys land and absorb roughly. the same strikes per minute, but if you actually go but fight by fight, the most strikes Perez has landed in a fight in the last six years is 41.

Johnson has landed over 41 strikes in nine straight fights. And he's going to have a five inch reach advantage. So I do feel like Johnson could definitely out-volume him on the feet, but we also got to talk about the wrestling. Perez averages over two takedowns per 15 minutes and he's taken down more than half of his UFC

opponents. Charles Johnson been taken down by 10 of his 12 UFC opponents, pretty much everyone. and in all five of his UFC losses. I'm not a big believer in Alex Perez. In fact, I've been doubting him the last couple of years, but he really did not look bad against Osuomo Baya before getting caught in that guillotine.

There's a clear wrestling path to victory for him here. I'm going to take a Perez spread bet. I won't take a money line. I'll take spread. He could steal around, just went out right? It's probably going to be minus money when it drops. I don't think it has dropped yet. So I'll probably parlay it with something.

But either way, taking the spread. I came into this thing. I was betting Charles Johnson and I left my research thinking I'm not betting this fight. I do think losing is contagious and Alex Perez has lost so much that that sort of just gets in your skin and you can't really shake it. And so I expect Charles Johnson to win. But there is absolutely a path where Alex Perez just scores two takedowns and doesn't get knocked out even though he likes to get knocked out. One of his favorite things to do is get knocked out. Charles Johnson has knocked a lot of people out.

but every time he does it, it still just feels weird. Despite the fact that I know he can do it and he has like several KOs to his like name, most of those didn't come in the UFC, right? It's just he's had a couple in the UFC that have been big. The Josh Van Lawny Kavanaugh ones in fights he was losing and then just sort of like pulled the knockout out of his ass. But like every time it feels like a shocker, it's like, oh, he was losing that fight and then just sort of did it.

and I didn't see that happening. So it's hard to believe in him, even though the numbers tell you to believe in it. I just, I felt really confident about Charles Johnson and now looking at sort of the data and watching them fight. I'm like, I don't know, he might get tackled twice

and that might just be the fight. So this is a stay away from me. The first, I think this is the first bout I haven't placed any money on. But, you know, I think you can bet Charles Johnson here. I don't hate that spread bet except for like also maybe Charles Johnson knocks him out. I just didn't feel good about it.

Felt nothing good about it. So I skipped. I like it on paper the spread bet but the fact that I'm going to put money on Alex Perez just feels wrong. That's hard to click the button. You can put it in there but to click the confirm that's a tough confirm click right there.

We move on to a lightweight contest. Michael Johnson takes on Alexander Hernandez in a sneaky relevant. lightweight contest in the year 2026 Johnson a slight under dollar plus 140 Hernandez minus 170 Johnson three fight winning streak

unanimous decision win over Daniel Zell Hubert the aforementioned one where he ruined my hopes and dreams Alexander Hernandez quietly on a four fight win streak knocked out Carlos Diego Faheda in September I'll

I'll like likewise. I'm going to lead this one off and say, like the last fight, I came into this feeling very confident that I was betting on Alexander Hernandez. You could have given me a million guesses. I don't think I ever would have realized that Michael Johnson was on a three-fight winning streak

coming into this. And I made money on that streak. I lost to Zell-Huber, but I actually picked him against a Zytar and bet him. So like, it's just shocking to me how relevant this is in 2026, Luke. This is like not a top.

15 lightweight contest, but the winner of this is probably fighting a ranked dude. Yeah, but also like, okay, Michael Johnson is on a quiet, we'll definitely, we got to emphasize quiet three fight winchreet dude, been over the course of two years. I mean, you know, he fought Darius Flowers like February of 2024. So literally coming up on two years there. About to be 40. Good for him. Yeah.

As far as their striking numbers, they're pretty similar. Hernandez does have a negative striking differential. we already mentioned earlier. That's never good. Johnson will have a slight height and reach advantage. Neither guy known for their grappling, but both capable of taking it to the ground. Johnson having the better take down accuracy and take down defense. Age and momentum, though, you have to factor them both in here. Johnson is on a three-fight win streak.

Hasn't been very active. This will be Hernandez's fourth fight in the last 10 months. Johnson also been fighting professionally for 18 years and has been finished 12 times before. I mean, come on. We're at the end of the road here, MJ. I'm going to side with the youth and momentum of Alexander Hernandez. I'll take him money line in a parlay. Yeah, I still did ultimately decide to back Alexander Hernandez,

but I don't feel that great about it. Johnson, nine and five is a dog. Again, a lot of barking dogs competing on this card. And Hernandez is like the exact sort of fighter who shits the bed again. Like in fights, he's supposed to win. He's six and four as a betting favorite as a, you know, to show that. So I feel way less confident than I did coming in,

but I just don't believe that 40-year-old Michael Johnson still has a juice, which is probably why he's going to knock out Alexander Nandez. I'm going to feel silly. But it is what it is. And also, for me, that's the last bit I have in this card. So we have three more fights we can go through.

I got no action on the remainder, so I'll have very limited things to say as we move to the heavyweight division, Josh Hokit, making his sophomore appearance in the promotion, taking on Denzel Freeman also making a second fight for the UFC. Hocke at minus 240 betting favorite Freeman

plus 190 as the dog. Both men 1 and 0 in the UFC. Hoket knocked out Max Jimenez in November, whereas Freeman won a unanimous decision over Marik Bouglow in November in a fight that made no sense because that was a fight that should have been on

contender series. For some reason it was just on a regular fight card and had it been on contender series, I promise you anything you'd like to bed. Dana White would have come back and said, you didn't show me enough that you deserve to be here. But Freeman didn't have to do the contender series thing for some reason. So here he is. And I believe that's why Hokit is the betting favorite. But I wouldn't bet on this loop because you're talking about low level heavyweights with minimal experience. Are you betting on it?

Of course. This is my kind of fight, Jed. I didn't realize that contender series thing like that was supposed to be on contender series. Oh, it wasn't. It was just like, is the sort of fight that's supposed to be on Contender Series. But they just booked it for a fight card. I got you. I got you. Denzel Freeman does have a win over Stephen I'll suck your toes, Dana Aspland. So maybe that's why they saw something in him.

Oh, he beat Stephen Aspland. So he does shoot him right into the promotion. He doesn't make contingency. Give him a ranked opponent next time, why don't you? Hoke it, though, obviously a good wrestler. Through two Zufa fights, 12 takedowns per 15 minutes, which is actually absurd because he didn't even shoot

to take down in that Max Jimenez fight that you're talking about. So that's fair that Max Jimenez's fight was like 30 seconds. Yeah, but still,

fucking crazy. He lands five times more often than he gets hit and he lands almost twice as often as Freeman lands. Freeman gets hit twice as much. Freeman's going to have a four-inch reach advantage.

I don't think that's really going to matter, especially if Hocat decides to wrestle here. Hatham-a-love him for his cringy post-fight interview. I'm taking Josh Hocat money line, baby. Let's go. Yeah,

I think he's probably going to win this fight, but, I have general rules about not betting on guys who have, you know, less than 10 fights. And that's where both of these dudes live. So firm paths for me. We move to not the case for our next fight, a bantamweight contest. Ricky Terseus takes on Cameron Smotherman in a possible loser leaves town matchup here. Both been on two fight losing streaks.

Terseos lost to Bernardo Sopage in January of last year, Smotherman. lost to Ricky Simone last June. So now he is trying to prove that he is not allergic to Rickies as he takes on Terseos. He is the betting favorite minus 200. Terseos plus 165. I just straight to don't have a great feel about this one, which is why I avoided it as like, eh, I don't, I got a lot of action.

I think Smotherman is just a little bit more like dynamic of a fighter, but I don't feel confident here. What say you loop? Yeah, I, this is probably my. least favorite fight of the night. Not as far as like, oh, it's not going to be exciting. Just as like, again, getting a read of it, kind of like unsure where both of these guys are at. Terseos hasn't been that active, hasn't want to fight in over three years. He does land more strikes per minute. He also gets hit with slightly less strikes per minute. He's going to have a two-inch

reach advantage for whatever that's worth. Interesting thing to me here, though, is if Terseos will try and implement some wrestling and expose Smotherman's biggest weakness, which is obviously his takedown defense. It's deeply ironic that a man named Smotherman is as bad at wrestling. as he is. Gets smothered all the time. Yeah. Ricky not really known. You're like smothered man.

Yeah. Ricky not really known as a wrestler, but he does have five takedowns through five UFC fights. And he does train at team alpha male. You know, there's decent wrestlers out there. Smotherman taken down eight times in his last two fights and controlled for almost 15 minutes combined in those two fights. Activity of both guys probably going to play a big role.

Ricky only fighting five times in the last five years. Smotherman's entire 18 fights. pro career taking place in that stretch. Also worth noting, you already mentioned it, Cam Smotherman, O-N-1 against guys name Ricky. So, you know, you got to factor that in. These are important stats. I still like the stats.

If he loses, book him against Ricky Bandejas. Let's see what. Yeah, and another one to the name. The stats do lean towards Ricky, but I don't really, this feels like the Alex Perez thing, where like, I don't like putting my money on Ricky Terseos, but the stats are leading in that way. I'm going to take a spread bet on him, Jed.

Maybe he could win around. I don't like that way better if you're going to do it. Yeah, because it's like Cam Smotherman. She definitely can win around. Yeah, but I loved Ricky coming off tough, dude. He's just the inactivity and yeah, he's just kind of been me. Hard to have any level of confidence there. I get you.

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More doing you, boo. Go to OLLY.com to learn more. These statements have not been evaluated by the Food and Drug Administration. This product is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. This week on Net Worth and Chill, I'm breaking down the essential money tips for every stage of your relationship. From the first state to forever. Who actually pays on the first state? How do you split rent when you move in together if one of you makes way more than the other person?

And yes, we need to talk about pre-ups. Plus, I'm sharing why I believe in equity over equality when it comes to splitting costs. Whether you're single and swiping, moving in with your partner, or planning your wedding, this episode will help you navigate the uncomfortable money conversations that can make or break your relationship. Listen wherever you get your podcasts or watch on YouTube.com slash your rich BFF. And we move on to the opening bout of the evening. Last and least, Ty Miller taking on Adam Fujit Miller. Big betting favorite minus 425.

Come back on Fujit plus 325 in this well-to-weight contest. Fugit 2 and 3 in the UFC got knocked out by Islam Dulatov at UFC 318 last June. Miller making his UFC debut off-contender series. You know, I'll tell you, I think he has some. some ceiling here like he is he's some potential right time Miller is uh he's 25 he's a big dude for welterweight you know like and he's got some ability but i had questions in my ranking of him about his broader athleticism he i comped him to a welterweight rob font which you know rob font's a very good fighter can but to me that's sort of his ceiling

that should be enough to get past adam fugit but i don't want to lay almost minus 500 on a six a guy with six fights making his promotional debut. So how do you feel, Luke? I was interested to hear where you ranked him because I, like, I watched I gave him a three star prospect. Okay, because when I see it, you know, UFC debutante coming off contender series at a minus 500 favorite, I'm like, oh, is this guy really good or is this just typical? Because we see this happen all the time and they lose, you know?

So I was looking into it and this makes me feel a lot better that, you know, you didn't, we weren't too high on him. No, but also I like, I miss people all the time. Not, you know, I get some right, get some wrong. Maybe he's one of those. He's young. Because he could be like, like, I,

viewed him in the same way I viewed Quillan Salkild coming off Contender Series. And Quillan has obviously been incredible and looks like he's a real talent. So there is possible that time Miller is better than that. I just wasn't super impressed. He has a real athleticism cap, but Adam Fuget is not going to be.

a problem for that. I know what it is. I still have PTSD. I bet Josh Quinlan in that Adam Fuget fight and Adam Fuget won. So I'm like, I think I hold him higher than I should. Maybe I should really just hold Josh Quinlan down lower. Anyways, this isn't about Josh Quinlan. Miller lands more strikes per minute, gets hit less.

Fuget does have a negative strike. Or he doesn't have a negative strike in differential, but it's pretty damn close, man. But like, you know, like point two off. He gets hit as often as he lands. Wrestling does make it interesting, though, because Miller was taken down in his contender series fight is takedown defense only 50% if you get does average almost two takedowns for 15 minutes not getting any in his last three fights he did have five in his first two ufc uh fights though including one on michael morales if you you know think he has great take down defense

fugue got him down if you get cheney though been caoed three times before and he's been finished in all three of his ufc losses to me this is a perfect either or bet jed i'm going the K-O for Miller or a decision by Fuget. Because I think if Fuget does get the upset, he probably wrestles him for 15 minutes. And I think if Miller is really a minus 500 favorite, he'll get an early K.O. on Fuget. I will just say he has not been a guy

who's got a ton of finishes in his career. His pre-contender series thing, he's of his six fights, only two of those are knockouts. Like I said, man, he's really, he's a lot of Rob Fon. He has got a very good jab. Everything works off the jab.

I don't know. If I was looking at something here trying to, this might be the one I'd feel the best about a spread bet on Fuget because he needs one takedown, really, and that can be done. So I don't know. I just don't, the price is really high here for anything. And just, you don't have to bet everything.

I know you do. But for the listeners home, you don't have to bet everything. And I would encourage you to maybe just watch this. one and let's get a read on Ty Miller as he gets becomes a going concern in the UFC and that ladies and gentlemen is UFC 324 but we're not done yet before we get out of here I tasked Luke with uh taking a look at the year end predictions who will be the UFC champion to end 2026 uh it's just a fun game I've done it a lot I don't remember if I said this at the top of the order here but I went oh and 11 last year. Let me tell you who

I thought, Luke, before we give our picks here. Not all of these are who I thought. I did just take some value bets last year. I want to say about all the ones that, I mean, we haven't given them out yet, but when we do, all of mine are just value bets. None of them are really who I think will win.

I could just see scenarios where they end up as champion. I have a mix of like, ooh, that price was too good. It was the best price I saw versus some things. But last year, I picked John Jones at plus 450. Obviously, he vacated the belt. That pick was largely, I kind of thought they just let him hold the belt forever.

Magerman Ankaliev, he did win the belt, but he then lost it. Drickus Duplase, just didn't get there. Shavka-Rachmanov didn't fight it all last year. He would have. He was going to fight for the belt, and he would have. But alas, I boldly picked Volcanovsky to win the lightweight belt, which I think was apparently insane. So failed there. Mavsar Evluev didn't fight.

Cheeto Vera, you know, that's a thing that sometimes you do. We thought we need more of an explanation. I don't, I don't have the reasoning for why I did it. I'm just looking at the sheet. Manel Cop,

which was actually pretty close to being good, frankly. That was plus 800. That would have been tidy, but there you go. And, you know, Tatiana Suarez failed. Aaron Blanchfield failed. I just did a lot of failing last year. So this year, we're going to not fail.

That's what I'm saying. This year, you know what we're going to do? We're going to succeed, Luke. 11 weight classes, but only 10 of them had odds up. For some reason, the middleweight division just didn't have odds anywhere. So we'll start at the top. Let's go with your heavyweight, Luke. Who do you think has the best value at heavyweight?

All right. So I also want to say not only did I do this based on value, but I did two things. So I did what I think is just a solid play that has like a good chance of hitting. And then I did a shot in the dark that like I could see this playing out. So my solid pick at heavyweight is Cyril gone at plus 400. All right? Sure. Tom Aspinall could end the year as champion.

We all think he's probably the best heavyweight. But Cyril was looking pretty damn good in that first fight. reasonable to think he could do that again if they fight again. Also, maybe Tom can't come back from the eye injury this year. Maybe they make him vacate and they do Cyril Gone versus someone else for a vacant title. There's plenty of scenarios where Gone could end the year as champion plus 400. I really hope you picked the guy I want you to pick for your outside of the box. All right.

So my shot in the dark was Alex Poeton Pereira at plus 1,100. They do the gone Tom rematch in the summer. Poetan moves up. for the end-a-year pay-per-view against the winner for the heavyweight title and he went. Also, Jed, I have to note this because this is absurd to me. Mohamed Usman, who, for those of you who don't know, was just suspended two and a half years from the sport and will most definitely not even compete in 2026, let alone whatever, win the belt. He is a plus 50,000 to be heavyweight champion.

So that is really fucked up, honestly, because there are some schmows out there who have no idea what they're betting on and are just like yeah throw in a few of these and picking random guys and some of them are going to bet on mo is umma to be heavyweight champion and that is just crazy i mean they serve you're right if you're betting on mo's yeah zero gone is my pick just he's plus 400 is a good price tag i think because if tom asmanal does return i don't think that fight was indicative of how that fight might go but you know i think watching that first round like He's got better than a one in four chance of beating Tom Aspinall. And if not, you know, if Alex Pereira moves up and Tom has to vacate because he's out,

I think Seore has got a decent check, like chance at beating Alex Pereira for the heavyweight belt. So plus 400 seems like a good price. I may, just for the fun of it, throw a five or down on Gable Steven at plus 25,000. Because Gable Steveson- How many people are calling this? I feel like I don't think this is going to happen this year. He, I think next year he'll win the belt,

but he's going to fight at the White House card. He's going to be signed. He's going to fight at the White House card. They're going to give him a match match. And if he then comes out and is just like, all right, June, I killed somebody.

Let me come in September and I get a top 10 guy. And Tom is out because Tom can't compete. All right, Tom still can't compete. and Alex fought John and John beat Alex in a whatever fight at the White House because I'd still think that is what's going to happen. Then who's fighting for the heavyweight belt? Like Waldo Cortez-A-Costa, maybe, but maybe the U.S. is just like, screw it. Who cares? Let's have some fun.

And by December, you've got Cyril gone taking on Gable Steve Sid. And I got to tell you, Gables win in that fight. Plus 25,000. I think that this is mostly me lighting five. bucks on fire but there's a dream there's a dream there and that's plus 25,000 is a big number and I can see it. I can see the path ahead. So that's where I'm at on that.

Let's go to lay heavyweight. Who do you have for the 205 pound champion on December 31st? All right. So my solid play here is Alex Poton Pereira at plus 120. Not the betting favor, by the way. The betting favorite is middleweight champion Hamzaa Chimae of minus 140, which is nuts. Everyone's convinced Poetons go in a heavyweight, but like if John doesn't come back, is he going to heavyweight? Like there's a solid chance he just stays at light heavy because Tom and Cyril still need to resolve whatever that's going on.

Tom isn't healthy. There's a world. Poetan stays at 205, defends the belt against Olberg, defends the belt against someone else later in the year. And it's still your champion at the end of the year. So he's my solid play. my shot in the dark is the aforementioned Carlos Olberg plus 800. He's like clearly the next guy in line for title shot. So let's just say Poetan stays there.

Can he beat Poetan? I don't know. Maybe there's a world. I don't think like you were saying earlier, is he an eight to one underdog against Poetton? Hell no. So you're getting a lot of value there. Also, if Poetan does move up,

they're going to do a vacant title with like Oldberg and Yeri. And I would definitely favor Oldberg against Yerie. So I feel like there's definitely pass there. for Ulberg to become champion plus 800 800 is honestly not a bad price I think Chumai's an insane betting favorite my bet here is Yeri

Perashka I think Alex is gone I just think he did why like why stick around 205 I think he's gone and when he goes it'll be Yeri it'll be Uncle Iv it'll be

Ulberg in some sort of toss up there and I like year's chances against any of those dudes I don't think they're going to let Chamaa fight for the light heavy belt this year maybe next year. So plus 600, Uri is one of my boys.

I'm doing that. I don't feel great about that one, frankly, but, you know, it's fine. Maybe if you're really looking for a big long shot,

because I looked at big long shots, the aforementioned, the man, the Lithuanian beast himself, Modestis Buchakoskis plus 15,000. Five-five winning streak. That should be higher, dude.

Five-five-fing streak and a really ratchet, division he's not that far off i'm just saying he's not that far off if he comes out next this saturday blows the doors off krillov he's suddenly a top like 12 dude so i don't know how about nick uh nic kitty a korel off how about uh calil roundtree a plus 10 000 that seems more likely than that year he broke him he's done uh we move on to the welterweight division because 185 isn't there which is a shame i wanted to see the line on bow nickel because i think bow has a very short path to a title he fights once at white house gets a w maybe he gets one more and suddenly he's

fighting shemayev because they have a built-in rivalry but there's no well no middle weight lines we moved to welterweight islam machachev the betting favorite of minus 200 not where i have gone where did you go loop i mean my this is the only solid play by the way that's minus money i tried to go plus money on everything but to me islam macha chath like it's guaranteed he's got he's to be champion at the end of the year. To me, it just feels like a foregone conclusion. I think that's very likely. I'm not favoring anyone to beat him. But if you want to come up with something, a shot in the dark, I'm going Shavkat at plus 500. Probably realistically needs to fight once more before they're going to just give him a title shot. But he beats someone in the top five,

him versus Islam. It's one of the most intriguing fights you can make at Welterweight. I don't know if I say he has a great chance. But again, if we're getting it picky, I think he has more than a five to one chance against Islam, even if I would definitely favor it. Islam in that fight. Shafkat is my bet at, you know, plus 500. I think he has a very good chance to get that fight this year. And I think he has at, you know, 50, 50, 40, 60 chance to beat Islam. People just have forgotten who Shafat is.

Because he didn't fight for a year and they forgot about him. But I haven't forgot about you, buddy. I still believe. Do you think they make him fight before Islam or do you think he gets it immediately? I still think he's going to get it immediately. because Islam has played this poorly. They're just transparently trying to make the Usman happen, and I think people don't want that,

and it has no appeal to anyone. And if they were trying to fight somebody else, then that might happen. But in the app, everything kind of shaking out as it is, I think there's a real chance that the UFC is like, dude, Shafcott did us a solid, and this fight bangs will just do it. People will like it.

Chofcott's tremendously popular. people just kind of forgot about it so we'll see it this was by far the hardest way class to find in general because also like there weren't even long shots that I really liked you like who who were you picking to feel good about like are you picking Connor McGregor at plus 50,000 no no I'm not doing that about Amosov at plus 10,000 that's probably like the best one but I don't even really like that. Yeah, I don't either. I don't like...

Brian Battle is on this list. It's $14,000. All of it's insane. There's nobody I liked as far as a long shot here because none of the long shots are going to get a title fight. There's just not a path. There's too many dudes and they're all priced competitively. Like the longest odds I would have any feel good, like any remotely okay about is call

his protest at plus 1,000 because he has a path to get a title fight this year, even though I don't like it. But like tough, tough weight class. Lightweight division. Ilya Tupor, your betting favorite, also minus 200 as to remain champion throughout this year.

Where did you come down, Luke? So I did an either or here because I, I mean, we did the breakdown on the card already. I was iffy on the main event this weekend. And I feel like, depending on where you're leaning,

just take one of those guys. So Patty is plus 300, Gaichi plus 500, depending on who you like. Solid chance, Ilya does not fight in 2026. UFC really does not seem keen on giving Armin a title shot anytime soon. I think the winner is going to defend against the winner of Olivera Holloway.

And like, dude, if you like Patty or Gaci, those are two winnable fights for the, I mean, they've got to beat one of each other and then just beat Oliver or Holloway. Like, that's totally doable. My shot in the dark is Max Holloway at plus 700. I think he beats Oliver in their rematch. Then Patty Gachie fight him for the undisputed title. Maybe they even add BMF on top of it. They do undisputed NBMF together or some shit like that,

especially if it's Gaichi, you do the Gaichi Holloway rematch or something. I could see it, but yeah, that's where I'm going with Lightway. I'm sticking with Ilya, because I don't think they're going to take the belt off him. I think he is going to fight once this year.

I think he's going to fight the winner of Gaichi and Patty, and I think he's going to beat that dude. I don't, he said he might come back in the spring. I am doubtful. I think he will fight sometime in the summer, one time. He'll fight the winner of that.

He will transparent. avoid fighting almond surukian uh and you know try and move up to welterweight they will talk about it and he'll still have the belt by the end of the year uh and so iliot to pour is my bet at minus 200 if i'm taking a long shot though this one i actually feel decent about just as you know i think that there's a path here because if ilia does vacate to go pursue or the welterweight or just you know whatever the hell he's doing you know like arman patty gaitchi you know you know like armin patty they're all in the mix. Max and Charles also with the BMF,

though I think that's, I think they're not going to really be in the mix because I think those two dudes are going to like do something else after that fight. I, I, it's just a really big number on Quill and Salkild. And he's on such a heater right now.

He's going to get a big opponent. And maybe he can come out of nowhere plus 30,000. Again, it's plus 30,000. That's not a thing that's going to happen. But I'm, I'm going for the real, dark horse big money shots for these that would be the big money shot i'd be taking it lightweight can we put it on record that when quill and sal killed had a fight booked against jamy malarkey you picked him

to be champion later that year yeah 100 we can put that i'll also say this is also categorically crazy 70 000 on conna mcgregor a dollar maybe a dollar see now you're talking that's like totally it wouldn't be just but like you're telling you're telling you're telling you me that he comes back, they're not like, you, you can fight the Patty Gachie winner. We could definitely do that. Can he make 55 though? That would be. Everyone says he can't.

I think he can. I just don't, he's not a big dude. He's like a bigish person, but like he can make it. Do they have a line on him at Welter? They do, but it was, it was plus 50, I think. We got to move on. This is taking us too long. We are only a featherweight.

Let's zip through this a little bit quicker so we can keep this from being a two-hour show. 145. The betting favorite is Agenda Volkovsky. Not where I've gone. Just behind him, Diego Lopez is a plus 200. That's where I put my money. I'm picking Diego to beat Volk in their rematch. I might look very stupid very, very soon. But even if he loses, shit, he might fight again for the belt by the end of the year. They love this dude. So I'm betting him. All right. I went the opposite. I took Volk plus 170. I think he beats Diego in the rematch. Then we talked earlier. I think if John Silva beats Arnold Allen, they'd probably skip over.

Murphy and of Loya of again. They do Volk Silva, Volk wins again, rides it out to the end of the year. Shot in the dark though, Jed. People are going to hate this. Al Jermaine Sterling, plus 1,300.

Currently ranked number five, and while the UFC probably hates his fighting style, admittedly, he's the only American in the top five. I think he's also the only American. He should be fighting Volk.

That'd be better than Diego. Dude. He's also like the only American in the top eight, I think. I think Steve Garcia is right around eight or nine. You know they're trying to push the Americans, too. Like,

there's a real world. We get Volk. Sterling at the White House. Like I'm just saying. I think it's unlikely, but possible. My long shot, no one will be surprised. Kevin Valleos, I love this kid. He's plus 15,000.

I don't think he gets it. But, you know, he's getting the Josh Emmett fight. He'll be a top 10, top 11. I don't remember where Emmett's ranked. And this kid is just incredible. I think I've been singing his praises since he lost on Contender series. And people are starting to realize how special he is. So that's my long shot.

we move to men's bantam weight. Piotrion plus 100 is the favorite to retain throughout the year. Where are you at, Luke? I'm going my boy, Marab, plus 150. Give him some time to rest up. He'll get that belt back. We just have to stop him from trying to defend it too many times this year. And then I think he can hold on to it to the end of the year.

Shot in the dark, going to have to be Sean O'Malley at plus 800. If he wins against Song Ya Dong, there's definitely a world. They do the Peotor-Yon rematch. If O'Malley can just pull off the upset in the Yon rematch, ride out the last few months before attempting to, defend his belt in early 2027. O'Malley is my bet. I think that that is very, very possible.

I'll pick Peoria on to beat him, but I won't be massively confident in that. And then he can just hold on. Bannam Wade is the most egregious of all the nonsense bets. You can bet Cody Garbrandt. No chance. You can bet Dominic Cruz. No chance.

You can bet Josaldo. Retired. Like, you can bet a whole lot of insane things happening. at Bantamweight. And I didn't like any of the other odds, frankly. I, you know. You didn't like Chris Moutinho to be Bandonweight champ at plus $200,000?

Sure did not. If I had to pick like a long odds, Raul Roses Jr. would be, I think, the best pick just because he is popular. And maybe he could fly up the rankings quickly. But I don't want to make that bet at all. I won't be betting it. Flyweight, former champion, Alhanda Pantosha, a minus

120 favorite to get the belt when he returns from injury and hold it by the end of the year. Straight up, I'm surprised by this. Out of all of the bets, this is the one I feel by far the best about. I think it's just honestly

a good bet. Josh Vanna, plus 300 is where I'm at here. Like, you know, it won't shock me if pants beats him if they rematch, but dude, we haven't seen the Josh Van. Every subsequent Josh ban will be better than the one we have seen and he was good enough to win the belt. Give me Josh Van at plus 300. That feels like a good value. That is also my solid

pick. He has the highest odds of any current champ on this list, which is just crazy. And like you said, dude, maybe Pantosia comes back. Maybe Van beats him. Like we saw a fluky first fight, but maybe we just... I will pick Van to beat him when they rematch. Yeah, it's kind of, it's in When I will pick Van. Pantoja's also like in the gym already working out. Like I feel like you're rushing back too soon, bro. But anyways. I see that way.

Shot in the dark, I'm going Kioji Horaguchi a plus 800. If he gets past Amira Albazi, he could get the next title shot, whether it's Pantosia or Van as the champion at the time because he already kind of set up that pantoja fight. Obviously, he'd love to avenge Pantosia and beat Van. I like his chances at that price plus 800. Yeah, I didn't love any of the shot in the darks here. if you know, Tyra's the fourth best at plus 700. He's my pick to be champion,

but it's a tricky path to walk. But I didn't love any of these, honestly. So I just, I think Vance is a great value at plus 300. Women's Bannemweight, Kayla Harrison, minus 120, which is wild that she's minus 120

and pants is minus 120. Given she might not even fight this year with neck injury. So, well, I took Kayla Harrison because I think there's a very, real possibility. She just doesn't fight this year and just holds the belt.

And if not, I'm picking her to beat Amanda when they fight. So Kayla, it's a minus 120. So based on that timeline, I fully agree with you. Like, if they don't strip her,

she definitely ends the year's champion. And if she fights Amanda, she definitely ends the year's champion. But I'm going Valentina Shevchenko at plus 200. Because Kayla may not be back this year. Amanda just put all this time into coming back. Sure, I know she wants the Kayla fight,

but like in Amanda's eyes, if you present her, yo, you do the trilogy with Val, Amanda might be like, oh, that's a good tune up for me. I've already beat her twice. Let me get that in before the Kayla fight. Or maybe they're going to be like, yo, Kayla may never come back. And Amanda's like, well, I just put in months of work for nothing.

I got to fight someone. They do Amanda Val 3 for the vacant title. Val wins. That's my logic. Shot in the dark here. That's a fun path. It's a real shot in the dark. Jacqueline Cavalcanti,

she's probably like the best woman's band and way prospect right now, plus 900 for this. She's 5 and 0 in the UFC. Still just 28 years old, but I realistically think she's nowhere near a time shot at this point. So it's a real shot in the dark. Any shot in the dark here

is basically a waste of money. But if I was going to do it, it'd be a mosquito. Because, you know, 15 plus 1,500. But no, don't bet on anybody that's not Amanda, Kayla, or Shepchenko. There's no point in doing that. I had be a mosquito originally,

but I didn't realize she's booked in March against Rendon, who's not ranked and I'm like, well then. Yeah, she's going to kill her, but like, just don't bet any of these,

frankly. It's terrible. It's a horrible way class. Straw weight, I was stunned by this one. McKinsey Dern is the favorite at plus 125. I went for Zhang Wili. Despite the fact that I picked McKinsey Dern

in my year-in champion prediction, that is more because I refuse to give up a McKinsey turn. If she fight Zhang Wai Li, Zhang Wei is going to kill her. So, uh, Zhang Wei, I think is the best value at plus 150. Yeah.

I mean, that's my solid play as well. The fact that she's plus money is absurd. And the fact that she's not the betting favorite is absurd. Uh, shot in the dark, I'm going Tabitha Ritchie at plus 3,500. She's booked against Vrna Jandrova in April.

Verna just lost, you know, for the belt. So there's an argument like she wins that. She's the number one contender. Uh, same argument could be laid, made for Lupy if she beats Tatiana Suarez.

I just don't think Lupy is going to be Tatiana. minus whereas, whereas I do think Tabitha could beat Virna, so I'm going with that as my shot in the dark. Yeah, I didn't really like any shot in the dark here either. Maybe Elise Ardellian, because she's got a fight

coming up, but just don't do that either here. Oh, I skipped women's flyweight, sorry. Women's flyweight, the last one. Shivchenko, minus 150, your favorite, and not where I went.

I went for what you might qualify as a shot in the dark, but what I think great value we already talked about it this fight card rose nomi unis plus 1100 i think she gets passed natalia sylva she's fighting for the belt this year and if i get rose at plus 1100 against val i think val i think val wins that fight but plus 1100 1100 that's a huge number give me rose nomi unis you read this exactly how i did in fact my shot in the dark was rose namuus at plus 1100 and i literally wrote as long as she could beat natalia she'll get the next title shot yeah uh my solid play is the opposite end of it. Natalia, plus 2.30.

If she's just going to beat Rose on Saturday, she gets the next shot at Val. I don't think she beats Val, but you're getting her plus 2.30? Good value there. Plus 1100 is insane. That is our year-in champions. Let's get out of here so we can be done right at the 90-minute mark, basically.

Luke, thank you for joining me. I'm glad to be back. I thank all of you if you stuck with us this long to listen. Luke, tell the people where they can find you. We'll have morning combat Friday with Jed this Friday. So, make sure you 11 a.m. Eastern. And then I'll have a new prop quiz.

It's Jose Young's against Gaff. So Gaff just won the tournament. He's got to go against the champ, Jose Youngs. I think people can predict how that one will go. But, you know, we'll see. We'll see. And, yeah, that's pretty much it. That breakdown out now.

We'll do a watch-along on Saturday. First watch-along in six weeks. So looking forward to it. Yeah, dude. And you know what it is? M.5.com. Great website. That's where we're at.

We'll do a watch-long. We do everything. I am on MK this Friday with Luke and Luke. that'll be fun. And then next week, UFC 325, we keep on going. Back-to-back pay-per-views to Kickstarter 2026. Like I said, thanks for tuning in if you stuck with us this long. Good luck this weekend. Love y'all.