MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Bets Bets For UFC Vegas 113
Episode Date: February 5, 2026The UFC is finally in the new and improved APEX. This Saturday, the UFC returns to its flagship venue, the Meta APEX, for UFC Vegas 113, headlined by a ranked bantamweight matchup between Mario Bauti...sta and Vinicius Oliveira. It’s the UFC’s first event in the APEX in nearly two months, and the first since the venue got overhauled to add more seats, and No Bets Barred is here to break the action down. This week, host Jed Meshew flies solo to discuss the biggest fights at UFC Vegas 113. Topics discussed include a brief recap of UFC 325, the nip-tuck main event between Super Mario and Lok Dog, Kyoji Horiguchi and Amir Albazi trying to put themselves into the thick of the 125 title picture, whether Jailton Almeida can get his aura back, the continuation of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 148 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.
What is up, y'all?
We are back for another edition of No Batsbar.
Sorry I've come to you a little bit late this week.
I'm just not used to it, man.
I'm not in the swing of things.
I know we are in the month of February already.
And yet, I am still a little bit behind the eight ball.
And I know we've had two events.
But I had guests for those events.
And I was not going to subject anybody to the first Apex card to be a guest.
so flying solo this week to talk about UFC Vegas 113, Mario Batista, taking on Venetius
Olivera, aka Loebuck Dog.
Before we get to that, let's do a very brief recap of last week.
UFC 325 went down in Sydney, Australia, and we had our first losing week of the year.
Fortunately, not that bad.
So we ended up losing a unit and a little bit of change.
Basically, we missed all our bets, or our bets pushed,
our bets got canceled.
The one bet we hit, we did have a CKB parlay on the road to UFC.
Lawrence Louis ends up getting a win that maybe he didn't deserve to win,
but that ended up cashing out at plus 195 since Aaron Tao had the wage shenanigans
and it's no longer employed by the UFC.
So that kind of saved us from having a really bad week.
And overall, we won just a little over a unit to start the year.
Or at UFC 324, we lost a little over a unit.
minute. We are $5 a head as things stand right now. So, hey, ahead is ahead. And I'll be honest,
not a ton of action coming for us this week. As a result, we're going to keep this fairly short.
But the most important thing, of course, is the update on the climb. And we are four steps
down successfully on the climb because both of them cashed last week. Granted, a little sweaty
at times, but the Binwasandini did get the victory.
Cashed that leg.
And the Torres-Finney Jacob Malcun fight hitting the over one and a half.
Again, very, very sweaty at various points in time, but ended up going to decision.
So probably would have been better just not to watch that fight and pick up the slip at the end.
But that is four legs down.
26 to go.
We're trying to climb to 30.
We're actually
basically won ahead of schedule,
so we're basically at the value we'd be at
if we had five minus 500 bets together.
So we've got a little bit of wiggle room
or we can just skip a step
if things kind of keep going this way.
And we'll talk about the climb for this week
because I'm going to level with you.
Not a ton of fights I want to talk about
so we're going to fly through some of these very quickly.
But there were a lot of potential climb bets
and I haven't made my decision on what is going to get selected and what is not.
Basically looking at four, four things I've got circled.
Maybe I'll do them all.
Maybe I'll do a mix of it.
I'll post the update on social whenever I end up getting those slips in.
But let's dive into this event because, I mean, by the time this comes out, it'll be Thursday afternoon, Thursday evening.
So it'll be right around the corner for us.
The main event, a Bantamweight contest, top 15 bantamweight contest, by the way.
Moro Batista taking on Venetius Oliver, oliva, aka Loekdog.
Batista, minus 180 Olivera plus 145 is your underdog.
Batista 4 and 1 over his past five coming off the unanimous decision,
but very spirited defeat to Umar Naramagamatov at UFC 321.
Loak Dog, meanwhile, undefeated in the UFC since coming off contender series,
picked up unanimous decision win over Kyler Phillips at UFC 318 last year.
Um, this is a very good main event, but I will be honest, it's one I don't have a particularly great read on because it does feel perhaps that Batista is being undervalued, but maybe he's just exactly on the, maybe this is exactly lined appropriately. Uh, he was even a little bit bigger of a favorite. Some money has come in on Olivares this week. Uh, kind of anticipate that trend continuing. Log dog is pretty popular dude. But Batista has been very, very, very, very. Um, I kind of anticipate that trend continuing. And I'm very,
very good. As much as I've had some personal issues with him, if you are a long time listening to the show,
you will know what that is. But I mean, look, he lost to Umar, but Umar might be the second or third
best Ben of weight in the world and he didn't lose by much. Meanwhile, this is a pretty big step up in
competition. Kyler Phillips is a good win, but Mario Batista is a better, a better opponent. And when you're
looking at things like the stats, when you're just kind of seeing how this fight will break down,
and it feels really even, very nip-tuck here, you know.
I think that Batista is maybe a little bit more of a classically better, quote-unquote,
more technical fighter, but Loak Dog feels like the more dynamic guy,
the more threatening sort of finisher.
And so it's hard to say, how will Loke Dog look in a five-rounder?
That's also sort of up for debate here.
And all of it's going to take place in the world's meta-ist apex with 700.
hundred fans in attendance.
I am ultimately not taking a side on this one.
I may take a point spread bet.
I saw some point spread numbers up on other books,
not a book available to me,
but it looks like around minus 135 to get a five and a half points for Olivaire
as the underdog.
Something like that appeals to me.
I think that this is just going to be a full-throated mixed martial arts contest,
competing in all phases, very close.
And I'll tell you the thing I'm looking at, and again, I haven't put any climb bets in,
but I had a climb option circled here, and it's the over one and a half in this main event.
Both men have hit that over four, one and a half, four straight times, Batista's three straight decisions.
Olivero's three decisions in his UFC is past three UFC fights.
Before that was a third round stoppage.
We think of them as exciting action guys, but as they have climbed and gotten up to higher levels of opposition,
we are seeing the scorecards more and more.
Briefly flirted, looked at some lines about maybe fight goes to a decision.
You can get like a plus number there.
But five rounds with some guys who have historically been good finishers,
it's a question mark.
And so I think I'm going to avoid anything straight up on this one
and look at that over one and a half.
And if it doesn't end up being part of a climb this week,
then the over one and a half in the main event,
I think I'll still throw in some sort of stewy parlay,
just putting a bunch of extra bits and odds and ends to get there,
maybe even a couple of PFL guys.
Those odds are very long that I've seen on the PFL stuff so far.
Moving on to the co-main event of the evening,
and arguably a fight I'm even more excited for
as it is Amir al-Bazi taking on Kiyoji Horoguchi in a flyweight contest,
and Kioji is a big betting favorite at minus 400.
to come back on Albazi plus 300.
Albazi has had a very good UFC career that feels deeply unmemorable.
He's 5 and 1 in the promotion.
Granted, maybe he lost to Kikara France,
but he got the split decision.
But he's coming off that first loss of his UFC career to Brandon Moreno,
but it was a long time ago, 15 months ago, to be precise,
November of 2024, the last time we saw him, Yalbazi.
Kioji, he's on a four-fought win streak.
He won his return to the UFC debut.
be submitting to Girutu Lumpakov in November at U.C. Cutter.
And, you know, it looked like maybe there was even a chance he was fighting for the belt.
Now this happens.
Flyweight is up in the air right now.
Everything's a little wonky.
And then, of course, there's the whole Kioji was approached about fighting Brandon Moreno
to step in as a replacement at UFC Mexico in a few weeks here and said, yes,
but he wanted to fight Albazi first.
So a lot of different sort of things swirling around here.
I want to note a couple of things.
One, stylistically, this does feel like a very good fight for Kioji.
Abazi is not somebody who is particularly threatening on the feet.
And Kiyoji is a solid defensive wrestler.
We'll call him amazing people who can succeed there.
But he is generally tough to hold down,
and he is just a much more dynamic, athletic, lateral mover.
And on the feet got more power, got more craft, got more everything than Albaazi.
so I really like his chances stylistically in the fight.
I will also say 7 and 0 is a betting favorite for Kioji Horoguchi.
And when you are perfect, when Vegas has you lined all the way right,
that's something that makes me stand up and be like,
man, minus 400 still makes me feel like Kioji Horoguchi isn't a good spot in this matchup.
And so this one is circled.
It is extremely likely Kiyoji Horoguchi is going to be a climb.
bet this week.
Not set in stone, but very much looking like it.
Something else I am considering here is the over one and a half in this fight as well.
Keoggi is great, but in four of his past five fights, he's hit this overnumber.
Al-Bazi in four of his six bouts in the UFC's hit that number.
I anticipate Al-Bazi's going to try and wrestle.
He's not going to get that far.
you know, Kiyogi is not an early knockout guy so much as maybe he was a little bit more in his youth.
And so I like the idea.
Al-Bazi obviously never been finished either.
I like the chances of this fight to go long.
But that's just something we're circling at.
More focused on Kiyoji straight up, probably as a climb piece.
I'm leaning towards two.
You don't want to overextend on the climb too much.
And so I'm leaning towards two, and Kiyoji is sort of the first one I'm sort of,
and prime. It's got pole position.
One A option right now is
Kioji Horaguchi as we move
through the week.
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Now let's go to arguably the last fight that I care about on this card. There's some other fights
and they can be fun.
There are some interesting things.
There's actually one other fight
that I am genuinely very interested in,
but this is the fight
that anybody can be interested in.
It's a heavyweight contest.
Again, top 15 heavyweights going at it.
Jelton Almeda takes on Risvon Kunev
and Almeida is a very slight favorite,
minus 150.
The comeback on the former PFL heavyweight
plus 120.
Almeida obviously took the world by storm
when he joined the UFC,
came out hot, hot,
stumbled a bit lately, though.
Three and two over his past five
lost a split decision
to Alexander Volkov,
a UFC 321 in October.
That seemed to kind of move him.
Obviously, that felt like
maybe a title eliminated bout,
and then he lost it,
and so now here he is.
Meanwhile, Kunev
made his UFC,
he's won in, how many is he in the UFC?
I got to remember
how many fights he's had in the UFC.
It's been a hot.
I think it's just the one.
I believe he just has the one in the UFC.
Obviously, formerly PFL fighter, won some fights there, got popped for taking a lot of things.
Sussied, comes back, goes to contender series, gets signed off contender series, loses a split decision to Curtis Blades in June at UFC Baku.
I mean, I'm betting my first.
first straight action of the evening comes on Jailton Almeida at minus 150.
I think he's going to get this done.
Rizvon Kunev is not some world beater.
He was a above average heavyweight at PFL.
I think he will be sort of in that above average heavyweight in the UFC.
Jelton Almeida has flaws and faults, but he is one of the very few good heavyweights.
And, you know, I'm just not going to doubt him.
I saw this man take down Curtis Blades at will.
I'm not going to doubt his ability to kind of do that to anybody.
And Kunev not the best grapplers, fine.
You know, he's Russian.
But I think Almeida can get him down with that sort of rope power double game,
and that'll be just enough to get it.
Maybe he gets a finish on the ground.
Maybe he doesn't, but I think he is going to get his hand raised.
Almeida, eight and two his betting favorites are historically a pretty safe bet
when you're putting your money behind him.
But I can't quit Jailton Almeda.
And furthermore, I shouldn't have to.
There are very few things to be excited about
in the heavyweight division.
Why not choose Joy and I choose Jailton Almeida?
We move on.
I mean, we are flying through this.
I'm so proud of me.
To the middleweight division,
as Mikhail Oleg Seych takes on,
Mark Andre Bachrio.
And what I assume is designed,
at least to be just a quick fast banger, something just to have some fun with.
You know the type.
You know the type.
As Oleg Seych is a very sizable betting favorite, minus 475.
The comeback on MAB is plus 350.
Oleg Seychic's on a two-fight winning streak right now.
Knocked out Gerald Mearschart at 319 last August.
Meanwhile, MAB has won one of his last four fights and coming off a unanimous decision
loss to Shara Bullet at Abu Dhabi last summer.
Like Alameda, Olegh, Jake, A and 2 is a favorite, and I really like him to move to 9 and 2
as a favorite here.
This feels very set up for Mikhail to come in, do his thing, be hyper-aggressive.
MAB can sort of get run over a little bit.
If it gets out of the first, maybe gets a little bit interesting, but I'm just not projecting
that to happen.
Let me tell you, the stat I feel the most confident about it.
out 0 and 7 as an underdog.
Mark Andre Bechreot, I mean, maybe he's due, but he has not ever cashed when Vegas has
doubted him there, doubting him now, and I am doubting his opportunity to finally get on the
board there.
This is another one of those that I'm sort of circling that is in consideration for the
climb this week.
It's obviously very clean to just do a horoguchi-o-exeachic parlay, slot it in for the climb
and feel good.
but I don't know
maybe we won't maybe we'll just go
horroguucci we're going to figure that all out
because I just don't have any level
I'm not confident in the way I'd like to be
about which ones I'm absolutely selecting
at this moment of time
but follow the socials
we'll get you in before the fights
we move on to
the fight I'm outside of the main two fights
the fight I'm the most excited for this weekend
as a Jean Matsumoto
takes on
Farid Basharot in a bantamweight contest.
That is A plus very, very good fighting.
Jean Matsumoto,
one of my guys coming off
contender series a couple years ago,
and he is a big underdog here.
Plus 220 to the better of the Basharabros,
both competing,
but he is the better of the Basharovros.
Matsumoto is 3 and 1 in the UFC.
Coming off a split decision winner
over Miles John,
that did not inspire confidence.
That one lost, though,
was they lost to Rob Font, who frankly, I thought he defeated.
Very competitive fight, not a robbery, but I thought he, I believe he should be 4 and O in the
UFC at this point in time.
And, you know, getting a lot more hype than he is.
Instead, he's a size of Wonderdog 2-3-Boshery-Bosherat, who is 5-0 in the UFC and coming
off a very, very good win, a unanimous decision over Chris Gutierrez at UFC 320.
I love this fight.
I mean, both of these guys are very good prospects.
It's basically the long and short of this fight.
You know,
Matsumoto has,
I think the reason he's such an obvious underdog here
is that Matsumoto is on the cusp, right?
He's getting good, he's getting quality wins,
but he's not standing out in the way that maybe you'd hope he could stand out, right?
A lot of decisions for him.
He's one finish over Dan Argueta, but, you know, he pulls a decision over Brad Catona and whoever that duty faced a contender series.
Just looking very clean without dazzling.
Meanwhile, the Basharab brothers have the Basharat brother have the brothers gimmick anyway.
And he, as the better of the brother, he kind of feels like he's got a little more juice,
despite the fact that he is also going to just a ton of decisions.
So that gets, that gets interesting.
And basically, I think this price is just too big, right?
Maybe this is homerism, John Matsumoto, my dude,
but he's made every fight very close.
And that's not great if you're winning,
but if you're behind, maybe making it close,
you can kind of sneak one out there.
And so big price here.
I'm going to take a half-unit flyer on Jean-Matsimoto
just because it plus 220.
You know, if I lose, I lose.
If I win, it's still covering a full bet.
So just a little half-unit flyer on John Matsumoto and see how that goes down.
Might be better, frankly, in a three-round fight, to look at, you know, something like a point spread bet.
But, again, I don't have any of those on offer to me at this moment of time.
I did take a brief look at some of the other props here because, again, we're talking about two-two-they-go-two decision.
But those numbers are pretty juicy, right?
the over two and a half is minus four something.
Fight to go to the distance is minus three something.
Like you're not getting a ton of juice there.
Maybe I'll throw that into, you know,
the over two and a half in the Matsumoto Basharat.
Actually, as I'm thinking about that,
I'm going to make a note of this right here.
And be like the over two and a half at minus,
let me find that number right now while I'm on air.
Great podcasting.
The over two and a half.
half is minus 425.
That might go in the big stew,
in the just big leftover parley stew that we're going to cook up together
because I do think this is going long.
I mean, statistically, that's the likelihood.
I think this fights can be very close, very, very good Bannonweight fight that I'm looking
forward to.
And our last main card fight, Dustin Jacoby takes on Julius Walker in a light heavyweight
contest, Jacoby, a minus 200 betting favorite Walker, plus 160.
Jacoby's on two-fight winning street.
Knocked out Bruno Lopez in May, Walker.
Meanwhile, coming off a unanimous decision win over Rafael Cirqueira in August.
I found out today that apparently Dustin Jacoby is the best golfer in the UFC, so that interests me, frankly.
Justin Gagey acknowledged that he is not as good a golfer as Jacoby, and so didn't know that, but okay, good to find out.
as far as a fight breakdown goes
I don't think much of Julius Walker
the Hafeel Siketa
fight was set up to be a squash match
and he did not squash him
that is you know I know he made his UFC debut
on short notice against Alonzo Minifield
and the Lonza Minifield was Alonzo Minifield
he lost that fight but it is what it is
I don't have a ton of confidence here
I think this line is right basically
is Jacoby's a more proven commodity
I kind of want to support him
but at the same time,
I don't know if I really want to support Jacoby
who's pushing his 37, 38,
a lot of mileage on him.
This feels like a stay away.
I intend to stay away.
And we move to the prelims
where we're going to really zip through here
because less than 30 is a great goal
for a card like this.
And I basically just don't have a lot to say about some of these.
Including this one, Alex Marano,
I think the biggest underdog on the card,
plus 500.
versus Daniel Duncenko minus 700 in this welterweight contest.
Brainos on three-fight losing streak got knocked out by Carlos Leal at U.C. 313.
Donchenko technically didn't win the Ultimate Fighter 33 because his finale fight against Rodrigo,
Cizanando, got canceled.
I do not remember why, but he ended up fighting him and he ended up beating him.
So he's the spiritual tough 33 champion.
Or maybe he's the actual champion.
I don't remember how that worked.
This is squash match.
You know, Marano's, it's not Shark Week, and he's not that guy anymore.
This is being lined up for Donchenko to get a W.
The price is too high for any climb action, and I don't want to bet on a prop here.
I'm comfortable just passing, and I encourage you to be comfortable as well.
If I was going to, I'd be looking at the Donchenko inside the distance slash knockout props, though.
We stay in the Walterweight Division as we move to Nikolai Veritinov versus Nico Price.
Veritinov 1 and 3 in the UFC, man.
unanimous decision lost to Punisoriano in October at UFC 320.
Nico on a two-fight losing street, got subbed by Jacoby Smith at UFC 317.
Probably a loser leaves town match, and I favor Veritnikov to be the guy who gets to keep his job.
Nico Price has been around the block like eight times at this point.
and I think there's always a place for a guy like him who dies well
if you're losing the guys like Nikola of Veritinov
you probably shouldn't be on roster so I'm going to spec and say
Veritinoch wins but I have no interest in betting in guys who are
fighting for their jobs if both men are in a pink slip derby
that means I'm not involved in action on that fight more likely than not
we move to the women's strawweight division as Bruno Brazil takes on
Ketland-Souza in a prelim bout that she is an underdog in.
Brazil plus 130, Ketland-Suzza minus 160 is the betting favorite.
Again, a very middling fight here.
Brazil 3 and 3 in the UFC.
Not technically because I think her last one was actually a road to UFC win over Ming-Shee,
but kind of the UFC, soza 2 and 3 in the promotion,
coming off back-to-back split decision losses.
So, you know, you can view that as.
two lost in a row, not great performances, frankly,
or she's two judges away from being undefeated in the promotion.
So frankly, I understand why Kedlin Suza is the betting favorite here.
Makes sense.
Bruno Brazil, not a great fighter.
Also, she's alternated wins and losses for a last, like, nine fights or something like that,
and is due for a loss.
So if you are, you know, a little superstitious, maybe that's one to go with.
But for me, I'm going with pass.
very briefly abandamate belt the other basharov brother javid basharat taking on giani vasquez
at the time of recording this was literally like just announced uh as a replacement
basharat was supposed to take on said no brigumetov that would have been a fun fight he's out
giani vaskis is in there are no lines up i assume basherat will be a very substantial betting favorite
and the truth is i don't know much about giani vassiz so no action for me last fight i am
considering action on here, though.
Don't have a bet, but I'm going to talk through it.
And I think ultimately I may, in fact, place a wager.
We'll see Wang Tong, I'm sorry, Wang Tong taking on Eduardo, Mora in a women's
flyweight contest, Tong three and one in the UFC, riding a two-fight winning streak,
UD over Arianne, Lipski de Silva at UFC 316.
Mora, two-fight winning streak as well, also three-and-one in the UFC, also coming up.
if you and his decision went, though she beat Lauren Murphy in July.
I mean, a matchup of rising prospects in this flyweight division.
Tong was supposed to be the hot issue.
She has famously fought Valentina Shepchenko beat her in kickboxing.
She suffered one of the biggest mathematical upset losses ever, got set back.
She's back on the road.
Mora, very, very talented grappler.
This is Stryker versus Grappler.
Tong does not get taken down.
the one time she ended up on the ground, she got choked out.
Can't have more and more get takedowns?
Vegas clearly doesn't think she can.
And I kind of agree with that sentiment.
Wang Tong has been very good at her with her defensive wrestling,
especially in a fight like this, she knows it's the only thing to focus on.
The price here is frankly too big.
I don't think that.
But we're considering Wang for the stew, right?
There's no consideration for Wang Tong to go into the climb,
but as just another thing that we dump into this pot of parley,
Wang Tong is being considered.
Two fights left.
We will very briefly, because one of them I have literally nothing to say about.
But it's not this one.
Muin Gaffrov taking on Jacob Wicklachs in a men's band-oomweight contest.
Gaffarov, two and two in the U.C., started on two-fight losing street,
one back-to-back, including a very big upset win over Rinyanok.
Kamura in his last fight.
Just being a hard-nosed dog, man.
Meanwhile, Jakob Wicklet's, you know, a KSW guy, long history there, made his U.C.
debut in October.
He won a split decision over Patchy Mix at UFC 320.
I think I kind of thought Patchy Mix won that fight, but not a hill.
I am willing to die on whatsoever.
And, you know, Gavrov is just an overachiever.
He is a dude who is he's going to try, he's going to scrap.
He's not going to take himself out of the fight.
You're going to have to take him out of the fight.
So I kind of understand why he's a betting favorite,
but I do think Yakkawaklats has just shown to be a more dynamic,
more kind of compelling fighter.
And maybe this is just sort of a bad style for him
because Gaffrov is not going to beat himself.
And there's a little bit of that in Wicklax's opponents,
especially in KSW.
but I am going to back the more dynamic guy
and I'm going to throw in a slight underdog money
on Jakob Wicklats
and that takes us to our opening bout of the evening
a women's band-and-weight contest.
Claudia Segula takes on Priscilla Casheera
Casheera plus 120, Segula minus 145.
Segula coming in off that knockout loss
to Yasselin Edwards in August.
Well, Casuala coming in off a W, right?
I'm sorry, I have that backwards.
Casuarra coming in off the knockout loss to Yasunegro is in August.
Segula coming in off the UD win over Arena Alexiva last summer.
I'll never bet on Priscilla Casualero, but, you know, this should probably be a pick-um.
The fact that Segula is close, you know, a slight favorite is nothing's crazy about that.
But, you know, Cashurorah's fought a lot better level of competition.
Seguula, a little bit unproven.
Ultimately, this is simply a fight to not be too fussed about.
And so that's where I'm at.
No action for me on this one.
And I just got to figure out between this sort of Horaguchi,
Bashera over one and a half, are those joining,
is Alexeyek joining a climb?
How's all that going to shake down?
But I don't have the answers now.
And this is the last you hear from me for a bit.
because next week we are off there's no UFC action next week uh so you you listening to this
I'm certain that you are a very attractive smart wise handsome appealing man you probably have a
significant other and so you can spend next Saturday instead of watching fistfights it's
Valentine's Day you can take your significant other out and then we will reconvene the week after
that because then we are back in business for you
F.
Houston,
Sean Strickland,
taking on Anthony
Fluffy Hernandez,
possible title
eliminated,
but certainly a very good fight.
The rest of that card,
it's happening.
It sure is happening,
but we'll talk about that
in two weeks.
Again, sorry that this was out
a little late this week,
but thanks for being with me.
Thank you for listening.
Love y'all.
