MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Breaking Down the Best Bets for UFC 310, the Final Pay-Per-View of 2024

Episode Date: December 4, 2024

The final pay-per-view of the year is here! This Saturday, UFC 310 takes place in Las Vegas, headlined by a flyweight title fight between Alexandre Pantoja and UFC-debutant Kai Asakura. Also on the card, two undefeated welterweights collide when Shavkat Rakhmonov faces down Ian Machado Garry in a title eliminator bout. It's the final big event of the year and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. MMA Fighting's Jed Meshew is joined by The Action Network's Billy Ward to dive deep into UFC 310. Topics discussed this week include Asakura's chances to even make 125 pounds successfully, whether Shavkat can continue his finishing streak, if the Ciryl Gane vs. Alexander Volkov rematch is destined to end like the first, the big featherweight bout between Movsar Evloev and Aljamain Sterling, a bevy of gimmick bets, the next level up in THE CLIMB, and much more. Tune in for episode 110 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Billy Ward: @Psychoward586 Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Service fees exclusions in terms apply. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. And the last big one of the year. It's not the last one of the year. We do have one more event after this week. But this week, the final UFC pay-per-view of 2024 is coming at us.

Heading back to beautiful Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC 310, Alejandro Pantoja, taking on Kaya, Sikura for the men's flyweight title and frankly very good card and so because it's a very good card and because I've heard the feedback more people wanted uh you know a second chair more people wanted this individual in particular to make a return and I owed him one because the last event he was here was let's not pretend that it was a good event uh but uc 310 i think is a pretty good one So joining me this week to talk everything coming at you this weekend is of the Action Network. Billy Ward, Billy. How you doing, man?

I'm good. I'm pretty excited for this one, as you alluded to. Not the most fun event. It was UFC Vegas 99. Couldn't even get me on for the centennial. But I'm glad you had me back despite the audio issues. I think we got that hammered out. And I'm excited for a fight card where we actually know everybody and, you know who these people are and the fights matter a little bit.

Yeah. Yeah, Vegas 99. The Centennial episode wasn't even good anyway because I was trying. I was in the middle of traveling and doing much of stuff. So it was real ramshack. It was like a 20 minute I did it with the bare bones because it's all I had to do it. So you're lucky you weren't on that one because that was just all bad all the time. But 310, Billy, before we hop into, you know, breaking this card down like we did last time.

And like I do every time here on No Bet's Bard. Just give me your overall thoughts on this card. as a whole because we've had a week off not technically we had pfl last week but i don't know about you i did very light gambling on pfl did not do a ton um just enjoyed the the holiday here in the states and so i've had had some time to really sit and digest this one and i personally i really like ufc310 but i want to get your thoughts yeah so i was going through and looking at every fight on the card making my notes the word that came to mind for me was top heavy because there's a really good card a couple prelimb fights i'm really interested but some of these i was looking at at the bottom's

like why why are we doing this who is this for was the question i asked so i think this wouldn't be a bad one you want to go out to the boys go to b dubs or whatever you can wait for the first couple hours maybe let that pass don't have to make that appointment viewing very excited about the top of the card though i love fly weights we all love fly weights we got a flyweight title fight we got a couple more flyweight fights i like weirdo grapplers we got some of that going on so yeah generally excited about it might not tune in right from the first bell though wow uh the michael kesa max griffin disrespect is palpable here in in the no bets bard studios uh but let's just dive right on into it because there are how many i'd be a better podcast if i'd had this off the top

my head 14 fights coming at us this saturday as a lot to talk about uh and i have thoughts on a lot of them actually not all of them a couple of them but uh i've got a fair amount of action down and i've got one bet that's not in yet but i want to see where you're at and we'll go from there to decide if i lock it in but our main event mentioned it already alexandre pentosa putting his flyweight title on the line against ufc debutante kai asakura pantosia coming in a favorite minus 250ish at least at the time i took notes i have not updated these for today so these lines could be like a couple points out of whack. Asakura, the underdog at plus 220.

I'll start us off and just say Pantosha's on a heck of a run right now. Six-fight winning streak, you know, picks up a UD over Steve Ursaig at U.S.A.S.A. 301 back in May. You know, he's, he has looked to be the best flyweight in the world since winning the belt, even if the fights have been maybe more competitive than, you know,

I think we all thought the brand new revolve. it wouldn't be as competitive, despite it being a clear dominant performance. Still, the stack going around the Twitter sphere this week has been that Pantosia is 9 and O against ranked UFC flyweight, which is a true stat. He's got three wins over Moreno, a couple wins over Roy Val, Steve Versag, a whole bunch of them. So, Billy, let me kick it to you and say, I think I know where you're going because I read over on Action Network, your pre, you know, your early liens drop. And I may or may not be agreeing

with you, but I want you to, as the guest, have the floor to talk about the main event first. Yeah, it's an interesting one. You know, I didn't get too much into the stylistic nature of that. This is kind of just trying to get ahead of line movements. I think fundamentally, anytime we get someone coming in from outside the UFC, there's a little bit of bias in the market towards the name we know. There's so many MMA fans, they only watch the UFC. They don't know what Ryzen is. They don't know what these other promotions are. And even since you took your notes, the line has moved a little bit more towards Pantosha.

Asa Kerr now all the way up to plus 225. I mean, we had Erie P come in as an underdog in his UFC debut as a former rising champ. Forget who he fought, but like not a competitive matchup, just dominated his first few. There's that bias in the market. So I want to be on the Asikura side. I was thinking money line would be the way to go, thought that was kind of locked in. But something interesting happened this week on Draft Kings with the point spread bets.

They usually do plus or minus 5.5 for five-round fights. Made it 9.5 this time. Pantoja gets in a lot of close fights. He's not putting these people away. No disrespect to him. He's fighting the best guys in the world, but he wouldn't have covered this line in most of his title fights. Kai Asakura plus 9.5 points is plus 105.

If you're not familiar with those bets, it's just the sum total of the judge's scorecards. So basically, if Asakura makes it to the final bell, even if he loses 4 to 1 on all three judges' scorecards, he covers that line. Obviously, a win outright gets him there. Only way he loses it is if Pantosha wins every round or gets a stoppage. Don't really see the stoppage happening here. I'm a little worried for the cardio element of Asa Kerr, but outside of that, a stoppage isn't super likely. So that's probably how I'm playing it. I might have a little bit of sprinkle on the Asa Kerr

money line as well, but I love that plus 9.5 that just came online. That's a big, big spread. I had not looked at the point spread. That is fairly large. I have, a lot of questions that have made me not take aside. And that's actually a lie because I realized I previously took aside as a very dumb part of me. But that would now have me. If I were giving my advice now, I would say I would stay away from aside. My big questions are all around Asakura because not only is this as UFC debut, you know, people talk about octagon jitters. I tend to think that that won't really be a thing for a guy who has as much experience as Asikora does fought in a big show for a very long time.

but there's some other real like legitimate concerns namely uh this man hasn't weighed 125 pounds since uh 2017 was the last time he fought down at flyweight he's been competing at bantam weight for most of his rise and run uh over the last several years and he's a big dude like he is not a small man if he can make the weight he will have a pretty notable size advantage over pantosia and I'm operating under the assumption he will make the weight because, you know, he's a professional, I think give him the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. But will he make the weight and be compromised? I don't know.

Also, sneaky, you know, fighting and rising all that time, hasn't really competed in a cage. So like that, like those are two very, very different things. And we're dealing with a guy who we have seen get taken down. Archiletta was able to wrestle him fairly effectively in the ring. before getting killed in his last fight. Ogacubo in their rematch had a lot of success getting top position and holding it on him. And so I am concerned about how that size would manifest if he makes weight, but I'm also concerned about whether he's going to be drained,

this being his debut, just a lot of unknown question marks that would make me avoid aside. I do have a parlay that I put in with him basically as soon as lines dropped with him in one other fighter. I have a little bit of regret on that parlay. I won't lie to you. But it's fine. I don't, like, I'm not cashing it out. I'll live and ride on it and we'll see how it goes. But what I am on here is I'm on the over two and a half rounds.

It's around minus 130. To your point, Pantosia tends to go long, certainly since winning the belt. He's gone to decisions. He has closer fights than you want. And while Asakura is a guy who noted for his power, his ability to finish fights,

Panto's never been stopped. He is close to unkillable, and so I'll be really impressed if he finds a way to get him out of there early. I think this is very likely to just be a decision win for either person. And so I'm on the over two and a half because I think the price is pretty good at minus 130. So that's where I'm at on this one. And then we move to arguably the actual fight that people are most excited about this weekend. This was one half of what was supposed to be the main event. Originally, the main event of U.S.C. 310 was a welterweight title fight between

Belaw, Mohamed and Shavkat, Harkmanov. Mohammed broke his foot, or I think it was actually a toe, but I don't want to say he broke his toe because that sounds like soft. And if you go check his Instagram and you see like, oh, like, no, his foot is jacked up. Truly could not have competed. as Shavcott stays on the fight card and is now in a five-round Walterweight contest with Ian Machado

Gary. Gary was supposed to headline UFC Tampa the weekend after this. He gets pulled the insert here and now we have a matchup of two undefeated Shavkat healthy favorite, Billy. Minus 3.50. Come back on

Machado Gary plus 315 somewhere in that neighborhood. And is this your are you like the masses? is the fight you're most excited about this weekend and give me your thoughts on it? No, I'm actually more excited about the main event. I said in the intro, love fly weights. It's always fun seeing how these guys outside of the UFC stack up.

Ian Gary, for all of his talking, it's good that he does that because his fights aren't always the most entertaining. Like he kind of has a style that sucks the fun out of most of what he's involved in, stays on the outside, uses his length really well to his credit, but doesn't really take a lot of chances. is hard one to bet. You know, I want to be on Shavkat somehow, and I was thinking Shavkot finished. That's minus 135.

It's kind of hard to lay that. I don't really see him just rolling through Ian Gary because Ian Gary does slow the pace down so much and make it hard to have an exciting fight. His decision prop, Shavcott, that is, plus 275. Don't really love that. I think if you had to get some action down, you can go finish only on Shavcott at Draft Kings,

where the fighters are funded if it goes to a decision at all. Looking up the line on that right now. Okay, that's minus 575. So don't bet that. Never mind. Thought we'd get a better price there. Yeah, I'm excited to see who wins. We don't get a lot of undefeated against each other anymore in the UFC.

Not one that I have a ton of interest betting on. Yeah, 18 and O versus, what's to carry, 17 and 0. Is that right? Let me look this up real quick. 15 and 0, sorry. 18 and 0 versus. versus 15 and 0. Shavkat notably, you know,

I get why the line for a finish is still a minus 130. He's never gone to the cards. 18 up, 18 finishes, including the Jeff Neal one, which, you know, was close to not be in, but then he finds a way to get it done. Shafka is just kind of that dude. I think that this is a really good matchup for Shafkot. Maybe you and Gary can slow it down.

Over three rounds, I would say he's, you know, a little better opportunity for Gary over five when you have a finisher like Shavcott. It's just he's so dangerous when he gets you into a clinch and when he gets top position. It's just curtains at that point in time. And we've seen Gary, basically, Gary is a good fighter who I very much believe, you know, we'll fight for about one day. Gary has struggled as he has continued this climb up the ranks. Like his last few fights have not frankly been that impressive. He won a unanimous decision over Michael Vennam Page.

That was touch and go at points. He won it with grappling functionally, which just ain't going to happen in Shavkat. And a lot of people thought he lost to Jeff Neal. I don't honestly remember how I scored that fight, but competitive fight with Jeff Neal. Jeff Neal is a dude who makes everybody have to compete against him. And so I really like Shavkat to get things done here. I have Shavkat in a gimmick parlay, which if you've listened to this podcast for any amount of time, you could probably figure out what the gimmick is, but we'll get there in the not too distant future.

And most importantly, Billy, I can't remember, was I doing the climb the last time we did this show? I was just going to ask if Shavcott was going to be your climb pick. Oh, Shavcott is my climber this week, baby. Good. In updates to the climb, we've had some setbacks. This is version 3.0 of the climb now. Four is the biggest number we have gotten to. And Anatoly Malikin is the most recent person who disappointed the climb as Rugrug upset him as a minus 600 favorite or whatever.

Or minus 750, I think, is what I had the price at. It was disappointing, particularly because at the time I thought Malikin won and I thought I was going to continue. But we have rebounded. We have been continuing to build. we opted not to climb at PFL last week, which, frankly, we were very, very glad that we did not do that because I would not have succeeded. I was thinking about Impakasangene, and he obviously got obliterated. So the climb continues. This is step four, or this is step four, and it will be Shavkat Rakmanov as the representative of it. and let's keep it rolling as we move on down the main card.

Cyril Ghan rematching Alexander Volkov in a heavyweight contest from their fight in 2021, 2019. I don't remember, I'm not going to look it up. Don't care enough. Cyril Gahn, your betting favorite minus 300 Volkov, the comeback plus 280. Gone. Hadn done a ton since they last fought, obviously notably lost to Francis Inganu. and then most recently lost to John Jones, but rebounded earlier this year by beating Sergei Spivak at UFC Paris.

Volkov since then, been on a bit of a heater, won five of six, the only loss to Tom Aspinall, no shame in that, and is currently on a four-fight winning streak. So, Billy, does Volkov have what it takes to get things done in the rematch or is gone going to move to 2 and O and just kind of keep being the next best guy at heavyweight? Yeah, you said earlier this year for Seraghan's last fight.

actually September of 2023. He's been out almost 15 months now. Filming a movie. I think they offered him a fight, but he was like, no, I got to do this or whatever. That's what gives me a little bit of hope

and bulk off here, because 15 months is a long time. You know, not a young man, Cyril gone, but not a super experienced I'm a May fighter. You know, most of his life,

he was just doing the striking. Not a lot of time to plug grappling holes. And then when you take all that time off to go fill a movie, you're burning precious years of prime at that point. Not on Fulton Ford.

He probably made more doing that than he would to fight Alexander Volkov again. I like Volkov. The line keeps getting a little bit wider. We need him to grapple here. I don't know that he will. He's had success not grappling, and sometimes that can be tantalizing.

It's hard to go away from that when you start punching people in the face, and it goes well. If he grapples against Gan, he leagues better than him in that realm. At plus 280, I'm willing to take that chance and find out. It's not going to be a big bet for me. With that said, you're listening to this on a Wednesday afternoon. And if that line is better than I said, keep waiting because it might get even bigger. I think there's money coming in on God.

I'm just a little bit more recognizable of a name. And he won the first one. So if you're going to be a lazy handicap or you go, oh, well, he won the first one, it's going to be the same thing this time. Doesn't always work that way. Going to have a sprinkle on bulk off. Don't absolutely love it, though. Billy, I'm excited for you to find out that here on this podcast with my former co-host,

one, Connor Berks, we had a little thing when, when we, we both selected underdogs called the Wolfpack Wager, where we would then howl like wolves. And buddy, you are locked in for your first Wolfpack wager. Oh, oh, oh, because Alexander Volkov, I am on the underdog price at plus 280 as well. Yeah, I was honestly not even factoring in the layoff for gone,

mostly factoring in. I think people, if you just, if you remember watching the first fight and don't go actually watch it again. You'll have a very different idea of what that fight was like versus how that fight actually played out. Yes, Zero Gone won and arguably won all five rounds. He did not pull away really in any of the rounds.

They were very competitive. If you look at the stats, they're extremely competitive. But you go back and rewatch the fight, and Volkov is just slower than him. It's pretty much the long and short. He just does not have the quickness. He's a bit of a plotter. And Gon takes advantage of that.

that could still absolutely happen, but again, we're talking a very close fight, and that was over five rounds, three rounds. Things get a little tighter. Since then, I think Volkov has gotten demonstrably better. He is, like, what we have seen, the way he is approaching the game is better. And the kicker for me is the grappling. It means Manazikov took Tai Tui Vasa. He doesn't want to engage in grappling. He does not usually take fights down. But, seeing how easy John Jones had it with him doing it. It would be astonishing to me if Volkov doesn't at least look to it occasionally. And if he does get it, then the dynamics of this fight changed dramatically. I just straight up, I just think this is a much closer fight than the odds suggest. And I think the odds are entirely based on lazy handicapping. He won the first one. It's not that far removed.

It's going to be the same fight. And maybe ultimately that ends up being the case. but I think plus 28 is a great price. And so I am on Alexander Volkov to get things done. And Billy, we're moving on to my favorite fight of the weekend. I am very excited about this one. I wrote about this fight this week for M.A.Fighton.com. Go check that out.

It's on our roundtable about this event. I'm speaking, of course, the featherweight contest that has much maligned featherweight contest between Bryce Mitchell and Cron Gracie. people are asking billy why is this on the main card what why why why is this over something like most i have loved al germane sterling that a a potential title eliminator fight when bryce mitchell hasn't fought in a year and the last time he's already got killed literally almost died i thought i truly was watching josh emitt and thought i'd just seen a murder committed and cron greciy isn't good and hasn't fought in like eight years it seems why is this on the main card because ladies and gentlemen this is

the most exciting fight of the weekend. It is, as far as I can tell, we'll never know for sure, because not everybody is putting their views out there. This is the first fight featuring two fighters who do not believe the Earth is round in modern UFC history. And I got to tell you the flat earther bowl, I couldn't be more excited about this thing. I am frigging pumped. So, Billy, are you as excited as I am about this? Oh, by the way, Bryce Mitchell's a monster favorite at minus 700, Cron Gracie plus 550. But, Billy, are you as pumped for the Flat Earth Bowl as I am? Because I got to tell you, I'm pretty stoked.

I hate to say it, you stole a little bit of my thunder because I was about to say that this is my favorite fight of the card as well. I've been telling all my Jiu-Jitsu buddies like Cron Gracie's fighting this weekend. I don't give them any more details than that. I don't want them to think too hard about it. Just that's going to happen, so you guys should come out and watch it with me. Yeah, I'm very excited for this one. I tweeted about it when I saw this matchup announced.

If you're going to make Crown Gracie still be on the roster, this is like the only fight that makes sense because you have the one person who also likes to grapple as much as him and might be dumb enough to willingly engage in a grappling match with Helio Gracie's grandson. And that's Bryce Mitchell. Excuse me, sir. Ryan Hall, I believe, is still officially under UFC contract.

I didn't know if Ryan Hall still caught. Yeah, Ryan Hall would be another. Didn't Bryce Mitchell fight Ryan Hall? Or am I imagining that? That sounds vaguely. No, he didn't. He didn't. I'm thinking of somebody else. Either way. But yeah, there's few of these guys left. They both have terrible striking, really fun grappling. There's a non-zero chance that this becomes

the worst fight on the card because we just get a horrible striking match between two people who want to prove a point. If that doesn't happen, though, is going to be so much fun. I'm taking a tiny sprinklet at Cron Gracie. Wait till Saturday. Like, it's only going to get bigger, but plus 500 or longer, against the only dude who might play to his strengths. You've got to take it. it there. If you're not bed and cron gracy here, you never will, which is also probably smart. But I'm going to take it this time. Again, small bet for me. This is the one shot he has. It's the best matchup. Bryce Mitchell, I have no idea how Bryce Mitchell is going to be physically after, as you said, put it almost dying against Josh Emmett. That is not good. Yeah, it just,

there's a lot to like about this fight. There's a lot to be very skeptical of. I'm mostly just rooting for it to have some grappling, though. I think it's going to have some grappling. I was briefly tempted to make the exact same wager just because, like, I think Bryce Mitchell is a better strike than Cron Gracie. It's not by like a lot. I do think he is a better wrestler. I don't know that that's hugely, but that matters that much. Like, they're both just good grapplers.

And so it will be scrambly. Wrestling probably won't be as significant of a factor there. Ultimately, I decided that what you said about. not betting cron gracie is just the better way to go through your life and so i opted not to do that but i am really really really very very certain uh that this fight is going long and probably going to the cards frankly so uh i also have i've got three parlays this week uh this is the start of the third parlay i have it's they're both they're all of them are two legs this one i'm taking the over one and a half uh and i'm parlaying it with another over one and a half just

I would frankly feel confident in both of these going over two and a half, but just give me, you know, not that much extra juicing, buy an extra round and cover my bases. So over one and a half in this, the flat earth bowl is going to probably last 15 full minutes, and I can't be more excited for it. So then we move on and we round out our main card, Billy, and it is actually a legitimately sick-ass featherweight fight.

When people looked at this card and said, why is Bryce Mitchell Cron Gracie on the main card? We all understood. Nobody asked that question about Nate Landweer taking on Dooh Troy, because this fight is a certified banger. It is going to be electric. That's just what both of these dudes bring to the cage. Landware, very slight favorite, minus 135-ish.

Dooh-Troy comeback at plus 125. Billy, last main or first main card fight, technically, how are we feeling a about this featherweight matchup also very excited my first note that i just clicked over to check on was great matchmaking is what i put because this is this is tremendous matchmaking two very exciting guys i i'm personally always rooting for nate landware just because i want to see what he says in his interview after because that is oftentimes just as entertaining in his fights and that's not a knock at his fights because those are fun too from a betting standpoint i see this is kind of an early late binary fight where do-hoo troy before he took a couple years off for military service finished

all of his fights in the first couple rounds he lost the only fight that went to three rounds still to this day he's four and four in the ufc all of his wins in the first two rounds losses after that Nate landware you know as he would say if you don't beat me I'm probably going to win which is exactly what happens because Nate landware almost gets finished all the time usually comes back and figures it out. So I'll be coming into this one with like a do-hoo-choi round one or round two ticket. You can get those on Fandul. And then just looking to get Nate Landware at plus money. Pretty much any time he goes plus money after almost dying in a fight, that is the time to jump in on Nate Landware. Because again, as he says, whip his ass and see what happens. Usually

he comes back and wins. Nate Landry is just a treat. I have a bet on Nate Land-Ware and Billy, I believe we did. I believe I showed you this one as well last time we did it. The good old fashioned chat GPT pick of the week was was unveiled last time out. I do not have in my notes because I'm a bad host what I picked last time and how it won. But chat GPT this year, too, and okay. It's not as good as it was last year where it hit it like 82%.

It's still picking it like 71% this year. The robots seem to know how things go And in this fight I decided to enlist them Because I didn't want to choose because I love watching both these two dudes fight I don't want to be Responsible for the outcome Let the machines pick it out

And the very brief rundown is this This one's Landwehr's relentless pressure and control And the clenching on the ground proves decisive Both fighters leave the octagon To a standing ovation Joy's striking and Landward's unyielding heart Made it a fight to remember with both men

earning fight of the night honors. So chat TPD is predicting fight of the night honors, which, frankly, that seems like that could absolutely be happening. And Nate Landre going to outlast Duho Troy. And so I'm on Nate Landware as we continue to trust in

artificial intelligence to lead to better betting. And that takes us to our prelim card, everybody. Main card pretty solid. I'm curious to find out where Billy draws the line, told us that this is top. heavy. Now we're past the top top. Got this little middle tier here. And where in the middle tier does he draw the line?

I think I might know. I think it could be obvious. But I bet he's not considering this fight like must see television. Because I don't know if anyone is, despite it, I think being at least one of these guys is ranked. Actually, let me go pull up the USC rankings right now to see if Anthony Smith is still hanging out there in the rankings. Oh, he is. Of course he is. I am talking about a light heavy weight contest between Dominic Reyes and Anthony Smith. Reyes, big favorite minus 300 to come back on Smith plus 270.

Reyes gets one win. He beats Dustin Jacoby and all is forgiven. His four-fight losing streak. Everyone forgets. And now he's a monster favorite over Anthony Smith. Billy, is this wise? Should Dominic Reyes be such a hefty favorite over a guy who's, I don't know, 70 fights or whatever that else Smith has now?

Yeah, I mean, probably. To answer the drawing the line question, it's not a straight line right in the middle of the topology card. There's some fights sprinkled in throughout. We're zigzagging. Yeah, we're zigzagging a little bit. This is probably like the bathroom break fight of the night. You know, if you need to take a few minutes,

stretch your legs a little bit, this is when I would do it. You know, you talked about the Flat Earth Bowl. This is like the retirement home bowl. It's just a battle to see who is less washed between two people who've looked really bad since they got their souls to. taken by John Jones at various points in their career. Anthony Smith just lost to a middleweight who took the fight on like two weeks notice. It was deeply funny.

Yeah, that's kind of worse than anything Dominic Reyes has done. Not taking aside, I'm not laying minus 350 on Dominic Reyes post-John's crisis era. I will have some interest in the under or fight doesn't go to the decision. Those lines aren't available now. Kind of want plus money on like under two and a half. If it comes out at one and a half, maybe stay away. these guys are just both very physically broken. They're both highly skilled.

I respect what they've done. I respect their abilities. But Dom Reyes, horrible knee surgeries, Anthony Smith looks a million years old. Somebody's going to break. Something bad's going to happen to somebody here. I don't think it takes too long. Any kind of this fighter's short props, we can get at better odds. That's what I'm looking for because I don't want to pick a side.

I don't really care aside. And if it goes short, that means, you know, your bathroom break probably lines up nicely with the start of the main car. You can order another drink, whatever. Get ready for all the fun fights that we're looking forward to. We already talked about. Can't disagree with, frankly, anything he just said, except I do have a side on this one. When I mentioned earlier that I had a parlay that I put in almost as soon as the event was announced,

it was Pantosia and Reyes were the two legs of that parlay. I think Anthony Smith is super duper extra washed. I know that he beat Vitor Petrino. He got him in a guillotine choke. if he doesn't pull that off. I think he's just dead. I think Petrino would have killed him. But, you know, sometimes you jump a gilly and sometimes that works out.

I think Smith has just been washed for a very, very long time. And while Reyes is certainly, you know, a bit faded as well, I honestly think he just needed to remember how to win. Like, he just physically needed to, oh, I am allowed to win fights and get that break the CEO, Dustin Jacoby managed to get it done. And I think that he won't, he's not going to run to the title or anything, but I think he can still contribute in a substantive way here. And certainly it has more tread left on the tires and Anthony Smith, who I should have retired ages ago.

And maybe this will be the thing that does it. So I have Reyes in, in my parlay with Pantosia. I got it basically even money because I got them both back early. So I don't feel terrible about it. probably wouldn't have made, frankly, either of those bets today. But, you know, it is what it is, Billy. It's fine. And that keeps us trucking on down the line to a super weird fight. I don't know how else to describe this.

We're now in the really weird section of this card where a bunch of odd shit is about to happen. Relatively large favorites, matchups I never would have thought. And this is one of those because Vicente Lucke is taking on Timbo-Grimbo, originally luke was scheduled to fight nick dyes nick dyes withdrew from the event his second time that that fight was supposed to happen and second time nick dyes withdrew this time tim o'girombo steps in luke underdog plus 150 as the and the rock's favorite fighter coming in

as your betting favorite minus 160 where is this on the zigzag of shit you care about this week i don't care about it in terms of like i think either these guys are going to be top 10 fighters or have a huge impact on the division. I kind of care. I just want to see, I just want to see if Asante Luca is okay. Because remember when he fought Joaquin Buckley? And it really didn't seem like he wanted to be there.

And he was just doing weird stuff. And he kind of had a moment in there at the beginning where it looked like he might want to fight and then that was it. I'm worried about that. He's the more skilled fighter here. He should be better than Tembo-Grimbo. Like by any reasonable metrics, if we had video game character stats on him, his overall would be higher.

He's also somehow younger than Tembo Grimbo, which really surprised me when I looked that up. He's sneaky young. It's so weird. Yeah. Yeah, I thought he'd be like, I swear I remember watching him fight at UFC 98 or whatever, and here he is still 33 years old.

Just turned 33 last week. So I am not met in this one. He and Panthosia are sneaky, sneaky young. Because I feel the same about Pantosia, because I've been watching him fight for it feels like 20 years. But it's like, yeah, I'm just, I'm in my mid-30s. Okay. That's weird.

Yeah, I was a small child watching Vicente Lucke fight in the UFC who is somehow younger than me in actual years. But yeah, so long story short, I am staying away from it. I want to bet Vicente Lucke. There's a yearning in my soul to bet on the better fighter, the younger fighter at underdog money. Normally I'd be all over that. I just don't trust him. And frankly, I have enough action on this card that I don't want to have the whole bankroll on weird fights like this. Like this is just one that I don't need in my life for my own mental health.

That is like I would just check mark. That is the exact breakdown I have here. I desperately wanted to talk myself into Lucke because I like Lucay. Luke is super fun. I think Timma Grimbo is not good at fighting. I just do not believe in him whatsoever. And Luca looks so bad against Buckley that it's just like I can't, I can't trust him. Like I, maybe Timbo just shoots a bunch of takedown.

and Lucay can't do anything. He just sits there and loses. It's very, very possible that happens. I hope Luke A good because a great performance is cool. But a part of, like, I hated it because Nick Diaz just should not be fighting. But a part of me was like, if he's going to, that's a reasonable matchup. Like, all parties here are in weird spots. That's okay.

I don't think Timba's good, but I get it. But you thought that about Nick Diaz because you thought Luque was also 45 years. exactly it's like yeah they're both old and washed and weird and they haven't looked good in years i don't know and so i i'm just staying away and i'll have my fingers crossed for luke but one of the few fights on this card i have no action whatsoever on uh the same cannot be said of our necks though billy because this is you know we can't call it the sleeper fight because it's one of those things where it's so underrated it's overrated now all the people are talking about it the featherweight, I would say title

Eliminator, it may not work out that way because of the backlog of contenders at featherweight right now, but Mobsar Evluev taking on former Bantamweight champion, Al Jermaine Sterling, in a bout that should, maybe won't but should determine not the next opponent, but a

next opponent for Ilya Tupori and the featherweight title. Evluav, comfortable favorite, minus 240, to come back on Sterling, plus 220-ish. been a little bit of fluctuation in those lines this week and I have two bets on this card Billy I think you could probably guess one of them and you might be able to guess the other one

but I want to hear your thoughts before we get into my shenanigans yeah this is a really interesting one if the UFC didn't by the UFC I mean Dana White if Dana Waite didn't personally hate both of these fighters there should be the number one contender fight like I'd be way more interested in either of these guys than Alexander Volcanowski

again or whatever we plan on doing with it. I mean, Diego Lopez feels like he's earned it. You mean the guy that lost to Movsar, Evov already, that guy, that Diego Lopez? Like, I hear you. He's winning in the streets, though. He's winning in the Twitter streets. But that's what I mean about being deserving. I agree with you.

I would probably actually be more interested to see Diego Lopez because who doesn't love Diego Lopez? That's really the cases that I would rather watch Diego Lopez by Elia than Moves so fight up. But if we're grasping on to the last thread of this being a meritocracy, this is probably the fight to see who the second best featherweight in the world is right now.

It's an interesting one. Been a long time since we saw Movsar. Ten months when he fought Arnold Allen, basically the first, was it the first pay-per-view of the year? It's very early in the year. I think that 297 was January, if I'm remembering correctly. Yeah, January 20th, so that was probably... First pay-per-view of the year, because there's

a 16 card in there. a 14 card or whatever in the 20, yeah. Yeah, and Aljo looked great at UFC 300 against Calvin Cater. There's obviously a big step-up in competition for Aljo. I am betting Al Jermaine Sterling. It feels like I've watched this line all week. It gets to 215 or 220 and gets bumped back down immediately. There's someone who's waiting to prompts on that every time it happens.

So keep an eye on it as you're doing it. My thesis here is if the grappling cancels out, as we're concerned it will in some other fights on this card, who do we think wins a striking match? probably Aljo. Neither guy is a great striker. I kind of trust Aljo's athleticism, speed and power. I'd give him a little bit of an edge over Mosvar.

And I guess I'm a little scared for how Mavzar looked in the striking against Diego Lopez before Lopez got tired. He even got outstruck by Arnold Allen on the feet before taking him down five times. Aljo's fought some really good wrestlers, guys. Henry Sehudo couldn't hold him down. Obviously a different weight class. I think there's a better than two to one chance that he can defend those takedowns from Mastrar win the fight.

So not one I'm hugely confident in. This is also one. We'll see what the point spread bet comes in at because it'll be plus three and a half on Sterling. If you can get plus money on that, I really like that too, because can he keep it standing for one round and we'll steal one round that way? Don't really see either guy having huge finishing upside here.

Mavzar's kind of famously not finished anyone really in the UFC, which is why he hasn't had a title fight. So, yeah, Al Jermain Sterling point spread, depending on the line we can get. And then just keep an eye on the, the line. If you see 215, 2.20, that's where I'd want to jump in. The best I'm seeing right now is 210, but it's been moving all week. There's one thing I'm very confident in this fight, and that is, it's going long. This thing ain't ending quickly, and so this is the other half of the

pacifist parlay, the over one and a half here, paired up with the over one and a half in the Mitchell Gracie fight, pays out around minus 250, and to me feels all, you know, there are no guarantees in gambling, that feels pretty damn good though, frankly. And then the, reasonably, if I wasn't doing a lot of gimmicks, that would probably be my climb this week. I'd be like, that's, that's going to go. Instead, I do have a gimmick. And the other facet of the gimmick parlay comes into play here, because I don't know if you've,

you know, you've done your research, you had a lot of good, important things to say. And some of it, I agree with some of it. Maybe I'm a little more skeptical of. The thing you didn't mention is, I think, the most important thing. Mavlovv in his illustrious MMA career, well, he's 18 and O. And in the co-main event, there's another man who's 18 and O. And how many times are you going to get an 18 and 0 undefeated parlay opportunity? Not many.

And so I have taken advantage of it. I have paired Rachmanov and Mazarevluev, and it pays out at minus 125. So, you know, probably a little juicier. you know, certainly on the Evalov side of things. I get your arguments. I will say I have zero belief in Al Jemaine Sterling as a striker, just none whatsoever. I know that he has been effective.

I can't, he gives me the ick because he like, I'm not kidding. Watch him strike and he looks like the most uncomfortable human being. Like he is doing it because he's supposed to, but he feels no level of comfort whatsoever. it is astonishing to me that he can have done this sport for as long as he haven't been as good as he have and be like that

not good at striking when he's a great athlete to your point and I will also say that you know losing the striking to Arnold Allen and Diego Lopez that's fine like he'd like to be more competitive maybe than he was but that's fine

and I also think he can have some success with the wrestling that's really the part I'm interested in I think we all are is to see who's initiating the grappling exchanges and how those play out. If the size of Sterling bumping up, if this comes into play here, it obviously

didn't against Cater. So a lot of questions, but 18 and 0, 18 and you got to parlay. I love a gimmick and that's a great gimmick. It's a good one. I actually do like that one. I never would have seen that coming. See, because we view fight cards, all I do is I try and find

the gimmicks that I can bet. That's all I do with my cards. Like, What are the silly things? I got one more coming up and very excited about. But moving on to the final or first fight of the middle prelim section of the event, Randy Brown taking on Brian Battle in a welterweight contest battle. Mine is 200-ish favorite. Randy Brown comeback plus 185-ish somewhere in that neighborhood.

I'm very interested in your thoughts on this fight in particular because I have a side. leaned to, but I did not pull the trigger on a bit because I have a lot of action already, and I'm not sure I really want to trust the bet that I would make here. So I was like, what if we just leave it? Don't make any rash decisions. And let's talk this through. Let's get Billy on and see if Billy's already on here, lock it in, boom, let's go. If Billy's on the other side of things, okay, let's, you know, maybe let's reconsider. So Billy, what are we thinking here for this pivotal welterweight clash? So a couple of things. If I had to draw a firm line on the card,

I think it would be probably right above this, if you're looking at the tap. That was what I would have thought. Yeah, that would have been like roughly where I do. There's one more after this that I'm really excited about. So that's why it's more of a zigzag. I'm going to disappoint you a little bit. I don't have strong feelings here.

I think Randy Brown is the better. Brian Battle's kind of like the Tembo Grimbo of this fight, where I don't think they're that good, and I keep betting against them. and I have much less money because I keep doing that and that makes me sad. Yeah. So if I had to bet this fight and like I didn't have the PTSD of betting against Brian Battle to not do stupid things to win fights, I would probably bet Randy Brown. I think he is the better fighter.

He's looked good in recent fights against tougher guys than Brian Battle has ever fought, I think. Looking at Brian Battle's record, you know, he's beat some guys. He's looked really good against A.J. Fletcher and Ken, having you set but you know and randy brown is beating the ageless wonders of muslims salikov and elizzi oleski both of whom have looked good at their old age it should be randy brown especially at plus money i can't do it i can't donate any more money to the brian battle fade fund because it's it's driving me into the poor house my daughter's not going to college because of brian battle you're useless you're literally useless because that is exactly my thoughts i'm looking at this and

like this should at least be a coin flip, if not maybe favored, favored towards Brown. He's on a great, yeah, he's on a three-fight win streak. He's won seven of his past eight. His only loss is a Jack Della. Like, losing a Jack Della Madalena has nothing to be ashamed of. And while Brian Battles on a solid, you know, run of his own, and I honestly have a lot of respect for Kevin Jusset, who I think is a good fighter, who he beat at U.S. Paris, I think his best performance.

the level of competition here, the difference between them is stark. And so it just feels like this should be a coin flip fight, maybe even slightly odds flip slightly in the other direction. And I was just like, I have a lot of underdog. I've got a couple of silly underdog bets here. I've got a lot of bets. I probably don't need to bet on this.

And like, I won't pretend that I really dove super deep into breaking this down. There's too much other shit going on. on my head my gut says randy brown is a value play but i was like maybe i'll just pull and if billy says absolutely i'm with you then i'm in but that sort of nonsense answer just killed me so i guess i'm not betting it and if randy brown wins i'm going to be upset at you that's true i say real quick before we go on if i'm up like two or three bets coming into this one i probably will pull the trigger on randy brown because i feel like it's house money i will not be coming an

into the event with that. So that's my slight like disclaimer. So I can still brag about going at different ways. I've never, I'm never up bets. Like I always hit bets to say it to salvage a bad card. I am never like, ooh, I'm five up. Like I've cashed through because and frankly it's good.

Because if I would immediately throw that money back because I would just start getting. Oh yeah, throw a tenor. Oh, on a spot right over here. Let's go. Just fire and bullets. So it'll never be the case. particularly with a couple of the bets I have coming up that are very silly. But we're going to lock it in as no passing on Randy Brown, and you will get a strongly worded email from me should he pull this off. And that takes us to the early prelims.

Five fights left to go, y'all. So we're moving in a pretty decent clip here. And this one, I don't have a ton to say because it talked about it a couple weeks ago. So Billy, it's mostly going to be the U-show because Chris Wyatman, he is returning. a catchweight contest, 195 pounds, against Eric Anders. These two were originally set for UFC 309, that Anders pulled out for sickness, I think. I can't honestly entirely remember.

Yeah, I think it was tummy troubles. He had some tummy troubles. Some tubby issues. You know, we've all eaten bad clams before a fist fight. It's happened to the best of us. There has been one substantive change from UFC 309 to UFC 310, and that is in the odds because this is basically a pick-em at this point in time. And at USC 309, Anders was a slight favorite.

They were down to functionally pick-um odds at a lot of books. And so I will just, I'll just lead off and say, Billy, I was originally on Chris Wyman as underdog odds because I think both are washed. This is another retirement bowl, as you so eloquently put it earlier. but Widman's peak was higher than Anderspeak by a pretty considerable margin and so if they're both washed

assuming the same rate of washed which is a big assumption give me the dude who was better and who I think is like a good enough boxer and maybe could take down Eric Anders if he needed to at Pickamods I am substantially less inclined to bet

than I was when his underdog but this is one of those where I if the odds switch, I'm going in on Chris Wydenman, and maybe I'll just do it anyway because why not? Who doesn't want to root for Chris Wydman to have a good return to form? Yeah, I think I'm going against you a little bit here. This is not one I've bet already. I probably wouldn't bet either guy until I see a plus in front of their name,

because I think the best on Anders right now is minus 105. I just kind of got a bad taste to my mouth of Chris Wythman beating Bruno Silva by repeatedly stabbing him in the eye. Why? And then getting that rule that decay. I'm sorry, that's called being a savvy fighter. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, you're not wrong.

The bet I originally gave out on this for UFC 309. Remember, before 309, they said, we're going back to the old gloves. In theory, the new gloves helped limit eye pokes. So we had two of the most prolific eye pokers in the UFC history, and Chris Wydeman and John Jones at 309. All of a sudden, we got the eye-pokey gloves back. you can get point to be deducted at plus 2,000 odds. I love that bet so much.

I love that bet too because you probably should win every fight. Yeah. It should win almost every fight. It almost never wins because UFC refs, they don't care. They'll let you do whatever. But I'm probably going to do that again. I'll have like 10 bucks on it just to hope we get a ref who cares a little bit here. And then on a more serious note, if Anders gets to plus money, I think he's less washed.

He's three years younger. We've never seen his leg separated into two different pieces. He's actually won two of his last three fights, surprisingly, and not looked horrible doing it. Yeah, one of those is Kyle Dawkins, though, you know. But he still won it. I mean, Chris Wyden beat Bruno Silva by iPok, and Bruno Silva is openly admitted not wanting to be fighting while he is currently fighting. So that's a Kyle Dawkins level when I would say it's on the same level. And then the other thing, this one's, I believe, a 195.

catch weight. It is. I don't entirely know why. If we think the issues with Eric anders, the weight cut already. But if we think the issues with Eric Anders were more because of the weight cut and less because he randomly tried like a New York City street hot dog and got sick, which I do. I personally think that's what happened. He's the bigger, stronger guy here. So maybe the extra 10 pounds benefits him a little bit more than Wyman. That's a little bit conspiracy theorist. I'm not worried too much about it. Again, I am not betting it until I get a plus on one guy, but keep an eye on those lines throughout the week because there might be an opportunity. I like the weight consideration. That's a fun one. And I I recklessly take iPop bets.

Like I've been doing it forever just as like a I used to do a lot of pick the exact minute ending of a fight because they're always like plus 20,000 or whatever. And I just throw like three bucks on it just to see because you're just like maybe I can spike it. What if? Exactly. It's just stone gambling. And that's how the lottery. makes all its money is people doing dumb shit exactly like that. Moving on, a fight that sneaky kind of good, I think. A flyweight contest.

We all love flyweight in your words, Billy. Cody Darden taking on Joshua Van, this is his fourth fight of the year. He's been an active little man here, 23 years old, 24 years old, however old he is, Josh Van.

His fourth fight of the year, he is a slight betting favorite. at minus 145. Come back on Durden, from my neck of the woods, by the way. So think of that as you make a prediction here. It's plus 130 from the man from the North Atlanta suburbs

who trains it not at the gym I used to train in, but with guys I used to train with. So consider that, Billy. Consider that before you make your declarations about this Cody Durd versus Josh fan fight. Yeah, sorry to do it to you. This might be the only favorite I'm laying the juice on is Josh Van here.

I was worried about Josh Van, right? He got knocked out by Charles Johnson. He got dead by Charles Johnson. And then somehow managed to fight like two months after that. I stayed away from him there, looked great, landed three takedowns, definitely one on the feet against Edgar Chiris. Edgar Chir is kind of sneaky, good fighter, despite his record. I think he's a lot better than his record indicates because they've had him fight Tetsuro, Tyra and Josh Van in like his first three UFC fights, which sucks.

but yeah Cody Durdon's gimmick has kind of started to wear out he had those fights where he got 11 take downs against Charles Johnson four against Jake Hadley if he can't easily take you down there's not really a plan B

other than lock up a miracle guillotine choke against Matt the Dangerer Snell which he did last time in a fight that was I believe two judges had in his favor one against him after one round I don't trust the guillotine guys like they're high variance they shouldn't ever work I kind of don't know

you get to the UFC and don't know how to defend a guillotine because they're fairly straightforward, and you can teach it in five minutes. For all those reasons, I'm going to lay the juice on Josh Van. These guys are, I believe, trending in opposite directions. We've got roughly a 10-year age gap. You look up the stats on age gaps that wide, especially in lighter divisions. The younger fighter outperforms the betting odds, like 10 or 15 percent clips. So I'm not going to fade that here.

Love Josh Van. Maybe the only favorite I'm laying juice on. I'd be disappointed if I wasn't also betting Josh Van. You know, I've never met Cody Durden. Like I said, he does train. He trains at ATT, Gwynette and then ATT, you know, spent the last two months down in Coconut Creek. But ATT Gwinnett is the sister school of American Top Team Atlanta, which I trained at for a very long time.

And so, you know, I know a lot of people who know them. They speak highly of him. Um, he seems like a great guy. I don't know him as even that much. People, people, people like him. And, uh, you know, frankly, he's had a better career that I envisioned for him in the USC thus far already. Like proven to legitimately deserve to be here is he may even actually have a ranking in

the UFC right now. Let me check that up. He is number 14, the UFC, uh, ranking. So like, uh, honestly better than I thought he would be, but I am very high on Josh fan. The Charles Johnson fight made me take a step back. and then I was very concerned about the Edgar Chiras fight just because that's such a quick turnaround

after getting deaded like that. Young man should probably take some more time, but he came out, he looked good. And I'm a huge fan. I've said this a lot with regard to Boe Nickel in developmental guys, prospects, just getting in the cage and fighting a bunch, just getting better, learn by doing,

compete, compete, compete. And Josh Van is taking that to heart. I love the state of the Flyway Division. you've got like 20 dudes who are young and super talented coming in to this weight clash and Josh Van is among them so uh i think that he should be able to stuff enough take downs and he is athletic great boxing super fast i think he should have a pretty good day here so i am also have the juice on josh van i am sorry to my atlanta brethren that i have disappointed you all so this fight i don't even know when i saw this fight i was like this fight both makes sense

and it's also kind of weird that whatever's happening. Another old bull, you know, neither man seems like they're close to retiring, but they're both old, and it is the welterway fight between Michael Keisa and Max Griffin.

Griffin, a slight favorite, minus 125 to come back on Keesat plus 105. I guess Kea's not getting a ton of credit for beating a fellow old and Tony Ferguson back in August. Well, as Griffin is on a pretty good run right now is 1-5 of 6. and his losses, many people thought, you know, split loss to Neil Magni, which a lot of people

thought he won. And then losing to Michael Morales, ain't no shame in that Michael Morales is a very, very, very good fighters. So, Keisa versus Max Griffin, I have one interesting piece of information. I don't know if you're aware of. So let me hear your breakdown before I give you what I think is the critical component to this matchup. I don't love all the pressure you're putting on me for a fight that I don't.

I don't care too much about. This is another one where my note started with like, why? Who is this for? You're right, though. It does make sense. Yeah, but who else does Michael Kiesel or Max Griffin fight at this point, assuming Nick Diaz can't make it back? Because that'd be fine, either of those guys against Diaz, I guess.

I want to bet Max Griffin here. I kind of do. Both of his last two wins and his only wins in the last three and a half years for split decisions. I thought he lost to Jeremiah Wells. I think Jeremiah Wells is very good. I agree. He lost to Jeremiah Wells. I've got some bias there, though, so I'm glad you agree because I thought that was maybe just me. I can't bet on a guy who's only wins in his last four fights are both split decisions.

That's just I do my luck ratings piece that's entirely designed on finding guys who've been lucky or unlucky and fading or betting them appropriately. So for that reason, I'm staying away. He should beat Michael Kiesa. They're both kind of like you said with Anders and Luque, I would say, roughly. equal levels of wash. Kiesa somehow gets hit with the same submission every other fight. Another one, like, it's got to be in his head at this point. He's got to know, but it's concerning. Not that Griffin's going to submit anyone, but he's much bigger, stronger,

more physical, should be the better fighter. But I'm not, I'm not laying minus 155 on a guy who only wins splits. I'm here to tell you that you, you know, you've got your luck rating. Here's a piece of information you defect. in that you clearly haven't, Billy. Because do you know what Saturday is? Is it one of their birthdays? It's Michael Keyes's 37th birthday.

Nobody loses on their birthday. That's not actually true, but I can't stress to you how much time I spent trying to find data for fighters competing on their birthday and making a determination there. I could not find anybody who has done that sort of statistical breakdown prior. And I'll be honest, I wasn't going to go through all fighters and look at their birthdays and see if they ever fought on them to create. That may become a long-term project for me, just like, I'll do five fighters a day for a year and eventually I'll have a database and have established. But what I did is I looked at all the fighters on this card. I was like, have any of you all ever fought on your birthday?

let's see. Only one man had. It was Alexander Volkov and he won on his birthday because nobody wants to spin their birthday being a loser piece of shit. They don't want to do it. And so Michael Kiesa is going to be empowered by his birthday wish and he will come through and pick up a critical victory over Max Griffin. And truly, I want this to be very clear to all the listeners. I am betting this entirely because it is his birthday. There is no breakdown. It's. It's. strictly it's his birthday i'm betting on him let's see how it goes so michael quiesa happy 37th birthday get that dub get that extra paycheck baby yeah it's it's hard to argue with that and you've given me a very good idea to talk about for this next one which i don't think you've actually considered so oh i have are you about to say that clay guida's birthday is sunday oh man you beat me to it as because i sure had i was very close to parlaying quesan quita up in another gimmick, but I already had three parlaces week, and so I didn't. However, that does take us right into Clay Grida versus Chase Hooper, a lightweight contest,

Guida, a monster underdog plus 700. Hooper, biggest favor of the card, minus 1,000. And Billy, I'm going to lead us off here because you kind of teed me up already. Very simply put, I am not betting Clay Guida because it's his birthday, or that would be obviously silly. I am absolutely taking a dogshot on Clay Guida, because Chase Huber shouldn't be a minus goddamn 1,000 favorite over anybody. Chase Hooper is three in three as a betting favorite in the UFC.

I think that he looked much better in his last fight beating Slava Clause. It's also Slava Claus. Like, that was a matchup that was handpicked for him. I do think the bumping up of weight class is beneficial. I'm not saying Chase Hooper is terrible and he will always be terrible. I am saying Chase Hooper, what he has shown in Cage does not. not deserve to be a minus 1,000 betting favorite against competent opposition, which even though he's old, which Claygwick is old, and he'll be older the day after

UFC 310, he's still some level of competent. And so I didn't throw like a full unit, just a little splash, but a plus 700 million, 700, that's a big number for Chase Hooper to be covering. It's a shame he's not later on the card because we could argue if it's after midnight Eastern time. I was looking at it. I was like, oh, man, is this were like, this car was happening in Abu Dhabi or something?

Like, boom. It'd be so great. We're not getting there. So since we're throwing out totally unsubstantiated statistical factoid's out here now. Yeah. The 18-year age gap between Clay Guida and Chase Hooper is actually the largest ever in UFC history, according to me, that I just made up right now.

But it's got to be. So that's not technically true, but it's not far off. off. Is there actually a larger one? It's the largest in modern UFC history. If you go to, like, UFC, I think Toledo was like 54 or whatever. But like Van Cleef was like, Van Cleef was actually like 53 or something in things. So like there are a couple in the, you know, pre-modern back in the stone age of UFC.

But this is the biggest age gap in modern UFC history. Biggest age gap since they figured out gloves. Pretty much. Since they had rules. Yeah. Other fun fact on this one, if you count professional grappling matches, Clay Guida has lost three combat sports events in a row. All right? He lost to Joachim Silva and Hoffa Garcia. Before that, he was submitted in the first round of a professional grappling match by Chase Hooper. Chase Hooper, calf slicered him in the first round of a grappling match two years ago

when Chase Hooper was still in high school, I'm pretty sure. He tapped out Clay Guida. I also made that up. That's not true. He's not that young. There's no way. Clay Gweed has one thing is the grappling, and we just found out he can't do that against Chase Hooper. What's he going to do? What's he going to do to Chase Hooper here? I'm also not laying minus $1,000 on Chase Hooper, though, for all the reasons you outlined. Chase Hooper is an incredible DFS play this week. If you're into that, that's probably where I'm starting. If we can get like not crazy odds on Chase Hooper by finish or Chase Hooper by submission, I'll probably take one of those two. I don't know what those open at. Probably not great because he's a minus

1,000 favorite. Other than that, I'm staying away. This is one that in theory I'm interested in, but it's going to be kind of sad, I think, because Clay Guido is 43 years old almost. It's going to be a great birthday. Remember when he fake retired last time out? That was funny as hell. A few times, I think. I mean, he didn't do the fake way down. I actually think he has, in fact, done it twice. He definitely did it at the Kansas City show against Rothschilder. I remember that. because I was physically at that. And I was like, oh, something cool is happening that I will get to like, dude, nope, never mind. And then I asked Dana about it and Dana like the post.

He was very mad. And Dana was quite upset. He's like, that's some bullshit. It's like, oh, okay. So yeah, whatever, Clay Guido, bring it home plus 700, baby. So birthday boys getting wins is what I would say. Why are you buttoners individually? Just throw them both together.

I have a fundamental opposition to parlaying. underdogs because you're already getting the juice. You don't need the parley juice as well. And I don't need four paulets. So we took them single. It's where we're at. And the last fight we have to talk about Billy as we are over an hour at this point. So let's keep this pithy because I don't think we need to talk too much about it, frankly.

Kennedy and Zuchukwu taking on Lucas Breske in a heavyweight contest. Kenny Nunchukes, mine is 600 betting favorite. the comeback on Breske plus 450. And yeah, I am not betting this is the long and the short here. I briefly considered Kenny Nunchucks as my member of the climb this week because I think he probably wins, mainly because Breski is a dude whose job it is to lose and he's very good at that job. I have a lot of respect for his ability to help enhancement talent.

but I don't know if you know this when you mentioned earlier you were talking you likened Mr. Brian Battle to Timbergrimbo saying I got a guy that I'm betting against them fading and it keeps not working out for me

me and Kenny Nunchucks have the inverse relationship where I continue to believe in him far too long and he kept losing he has five and four as a betting favorite and all four of those losses I had cash on his ass and so now i just can't trust him at all and my uh my response is to

entirely stay away from kidding nunchucks so i don't have any action here uh i do think uh insachukuo will get things done but billy uh for the first fight slash last fight do you have any thoughts yeah not really i mean you said the last fight we have to talk about which is how i describe it as well we don't get to talk about this one we have to talk about this one so this is but below the exact line. Well, below, yeah, any metric, this one's definitely below that. It's heavyweight MMA. There's like four dudes we care about, and most of them are in weird contract disputes.

Yeah, if you could get Nchukwu at like plus money to get a knockout, maybe, or plus money with him parlayed on the under one and a half, I would probably take that. I don't think we will. Those lines aren't out yet. If we see a minus 550 guy who mostly wins by knockout, come in at those price, I would take it. But, yeah, unless we get that, I'm staying away. Yeah, and frankly, that's it, guys.

We did it. Way to go, us. Way to go, Billy. We nailed it. U.S.C. 310, nothing but winners given out. And that means come Saturday, we'll all have a bunch of money as we make our way to the final event of the year in Amelie Arena, Tampa, Florida. I may or may not be in attendance. I've yet to decide that.

My best friend does live in Tampa, so I may go down and do it just to do it. I was more excited before it became Colby Covington versus Joaquin Buckley as the Walter Main event, but the rest of the card is fairly decent. Amendeheba's McKinsey-Durne. Cove Swanson, Billy Que should at least be fun. Adrian Janiez making his returning is Daniel Marcos. Also should be very, very fun. I love me some Joel Alvarez.

Dragar Close should be a very good matchup. So a lot of good things coming up. But we've got Saturday to worry about Billy, thanks for joining. and before we get out of here, tell the people where they can find you, and then we'll skedaddle. Yeah, head over to actionnetwork.com. You can click UFC. That is a ton of stuff. Some of these I gave kind of wishy-washy answers on.

I hope to have more firm thoughts by Friday or so. So check back later in the week, and we'll have all of our picks, all of our good stuff out there. And also the Action Network app. It's B-Word-586. Get real-time updates any time I put it in. So if you're wondering where I'm going to fall on some of these, that is the best way to find out. uh check out the action network app you're going to see billy decide that the birthday bet is undeniable and a lot of units come in pouring in on michael kiesa for victory on saturday billy thanks for

coming back i'm glad we got you on for a better card than ucc vegas 99 uh maybe next time we'll we'll get you on just some real dog shit just something awful and and make your life a little worse actually here's what we're going to do if randy brown wins the next card you're coming on, it's going to be a real piece of shit. It's going to be the worst card you've ever seen. And if Randy Brown loses, then you can come on for a pay-per-view, you know, 3-12, something like that.

We'll let Randy Brown... I like that wager, actually. Yeah, that's fun. So, you know, I hope for your sake that Brian Battle once again is victorious, or you and me are locked in for UFC Vegas 104, baby. Let's go. Thanks for

tuning this week. Love y'all. Unwrap Holiday Magic at Holt with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to lux beauty and fragrance sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holt's holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com.