MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Alex Pereira Beat Magomed Ankalaev And Reclaim Gold At UFC 320?

Episode Date: October 1, 2025

We're back! Due to a light schedule and some technical difficulties, it's been nearly a month since the last No Bets Barred, but we are back just in time for the first pay-per-view event in a month. ...This Saturday, UFC 320 goes down in Las Vegas, headlined by a light heavyweight title rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Alex Pereira, and also featuring a bantamweight title fight between Merab Dvalishvili and Cory Sandhagen. And with such a big event, No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Morning Kombat's Luke Noseda to take a deep dive into all things UFC 320, plus a little PFL action as well. Topics discussed include Pereira's chances to reclaim the light heavyweight title, Sandhagen's chances to upset Merab, the banger of a feature fight between Jiri Prochazka and Khalil Rountree Jr., some gimmick parlays, the next step of The Climb, and much more. Tune in for episode 138 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠⁠@MainCardMinute ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:00 When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?
Starting point is 00:00:19 Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. My name is Jed Mishu.
Starting point is 00:00:48 I'm a writer for MMAfighting. Dot com. A terrific website. And it's UFC 320 Fight Week, folks. That's right. It has been a long layoff. We have not had a pay-per-view in weeks and weeks. The entire month of September was Sons' pay-per-view.
Starting point is 00:01:05 But now we got two of them in the month of October We're in kicking it off, right? The first weekend of October, we are, you know, we're in fall here in Georgia. The temperature is cooling just slightly. Had to bring in, you know, basically the pay-per-view All-Star, the man who has joined me for most of the pay-per-view this year, talking, of course, about Long Island, Luke, Luc Nocita of the main card minute of morning combat fame, all that good jazz. Luke, you excited about UC320? Jed, I'm hyped.
Starting point is 00:01:36 As you were saying, it feels like we have a high. had a pay-per-view in like way longer than a month. It feels like months, plural. So I'm hyped for this. Two title fights. Pretty damn good main card too. Prelims could use a little work for a pay-per-view, but you know, I'm not going to complain. We've had worse, so I'll take it. Yeah, I have gotten progressively more excited about this as this week has gone on. I think that for two reasons. One, it just has been a while since we've done this, right? Like, I haven't done a watch party in over a month. Like, I've, I've been allowed. to miss this aspect of the UFC, which is nice because they usually are unrelenting.
Starting point is 00:02:15 It's every three weeks. So that little extra time off has made the absence has made the heart grow fonder. But also, I am, I'm just way more into this main event than I was a week ago. The more I've had to sort of engage with it for various things, you know, previews, writing, etc. the more interested I have become in the matchup because I, you know, it is no secret. I was from the mountaintop screaming, this fight is stupid and we shouldn't do it. It's meaningless. And while I still kind of believe that, right, like I still think that this is, we are taking a detour from the obvious clear future for Alex Pereira, which is heavyweight and, you know, injecting some life into that division and just closing the chapter on this.
Starting point is 00:03:05 or closing the book on this particular chapter of his career. I am interested in this fight. There are a lot of variables in the Alex Pereira, Magerman Ankelaev, rematch that headlines UFC 320. And some variables in the co-main. Like you said, this main card has got some juice to it. And the prelims are the prelims. But, you know, we don't pay for those prelims. So it's okay.
Starting point is 00:03:28 It'll be a good time. Plus, it's really like two prelims. because Friday night, PFL, whatever they're calling it, I don't know what the hell they're calling this shit. Goodbye. But it's a damn good fight card. It's basically the best that PFL can offer.
Starting point is 00:03:46 And also a main event rematch, a main event title rematch. Usman Narragamatov 2 and the first fight, if you're at home listening and you haven't seen it, I highly encourage you to watch it. Stone Cold Bangor, this is the best fight PFO can put on. So Friday will be a good time as well.
Starting point is 00:04:08 And also Friday's going to be great. I get to see you, Luke. Yeah, coming up to NYC, morning combat, pregame preview. We're going to have a good time on Friday. So it is a weekend that I'm pretty pumped about. Any other thoughts you have on this before we dive into the nitty gritty here? No, I just one thing I want to reiterate is we just went like, what, six weeks without any pay-per-views. And now I think in the next six weeks, not only do we do.
Starting point is 00:04:31 we have two this month, but we have three pay-per-views in the next six weeks. So we got a pretty nice jam-packed thing here between... Is that true? Jesus. Yeah, because MSG's the 15th, so... Oh, my God, you were correct. Yeah, so that's pretty exciting. I'm hyped for that.
Starting point is 00:04:47 Yeah. Wow. Wowsers, Wowsers. That is. Yeah. You, I mean, technically, it's like seven weeks. That's close. But, but, because it's seven events functionally, but yeah it is functionally a six six week gap so we are i mean we're going to be right on into the thick of it and let's us get right on into the thick of it with the ufc 320 main event magman ankylai of
Starting point is 00:05:14 taking on alex perera a rematch of their ufc three 13 fight i think january earlier this year march march march earlier this sorry january is 311 correct i could have done that math uh ankliav your betting favorite minus 230 the comeback on Pereira plus 210. Ancolaev, he's a light heavyweight champ. He's on the three-fright wind street. He took the belt. Pereira was, you know,
Starting point is 00:05:42 climbing up the ranks of greatest of all time, greatest light heavyweight conversation before the lost to Anka Lyev. I will also, as we dive into this, I'll reveal one important thing. I have made zero bets on this card thus far. mainly because there's just kind of a lot of tweeners that I have liens or have thoughts, but I figured I'd come in here and we'd just talk through it and then I can make a note of what
Starting point is 00:06:10 I'm going to do and then I can get some action down. The only bet I had intended fell off the card because I had intended Luke to climb with the table goatee by knockout, which on the offshores was like minus 500. However, obviously Ozzy Diaz fell out. there is now a replacement fighter there. We will get to that matchup in due time. No odds on it yet. So let's talk about this main event, Luke,
Starting point is 00:06:37 because like I said, I'm really interested in it because I don't know what to expect. Rarely do I go into a fight with this many questions, especially when I've already seen the two dudes fight. Usually it's like, what's it going to look like? I don't know, maybe this may be that. what do you make of their first matchup, Luke? Because I think you could draw a lot of different conclusions
Starting point is 00:07:03 based on the day of the week, basically. And I can't quite figure out whether I think it was Alex Pereira, you know, is on the decline. When you factor in the Khalil Roundtree performance, you could make the argument, well, maybe Alex has just passed his prime here and he's declining. You know, much has been made of a potential hand injury with Pereira. The idea that Pereira was simply fighting too much, he had been super active.
Starting point is 00:07:28 And historically, when fighters are that active, we do see worse and worse performances happen down them. But on the other side of it, Magrana Goliath also wasn't his best performance, despite winning the belt. He was in the middle of Ramadan. The ability to train during that was obviously, you know, impacted. Just so many different variables that I don't quite know how to account for. What's your take on why the first fight was the way?
Starting point is 00:07:54 it was and are we going to get something similar this time around? I, all right, two questions there. One is, I feel like we're going to get the same thing this time around, but the factors are going to be completely different. So I feel like I'm buying into the fact that Poetan was injured in the first fight. I hate to say it, he did an interview with Brian Campbell, he said he was 40% going into that. Someone like him saying that, I weirdly believe it.
Starting point is 00:08:18 This isn't like when Kamarouzman was like, that was only 30% against Emil Mech, you know, that was clear bullshit. And that was right after the fight. Poetan waiting like six, seven months and then being like, I was very hurt in that. It's so Poetan. Like, I'm buying into that a lot. You ask me how it's going to go, though. Again, I'll get to my bet, but I just like weirdly feel like we're going to get the exact
Starting point is 00:08:40 same fucking fight, man. We're all going to be waiting for Poetan to uncock this left hand. It's probably never going to happen. Uncle I was going to push him against the cage. Maybe not take him down because he didn't take him down in the first fight, but I don't know. I just see him stalling him for a while. I do want to say though in the first fight I told myself yo whoever the dog is
Starting point is 00:08:58 I'll take here I don't even care who it is and the odds were pretty close in the first fight I think Poetan was like minus 1 30 I got Ancolaev at like plus 110 Going into this I'm not saying Ancolaev should be the dog Obviously you shouldn't he won the first fight But I thought they'd be a little closer
Starting point is 00:09:13 Have you seen the odds on Poetan Like those are fucking juicy man I don't know I I'm pretty intrigued by that shit I do believe Poetan wasn't 100% the first time and the fight was already relatively close. Two judges did give him two rounds in that fight. I didn't think it was that close, but like, if you're telling me it was 48, 47
Starting point is 00:09:34 on two judges' scorecards, and now he's arguably going to be 100% healthy this time. That's pretty fucking intriguing. He also lands more strikes per minute. He's going to have a four-inch reach advantage. I'm taking the plus money on Poetton this time. Plus 220 and he's at plus 230 right now on Draft King. So it's only climbing from here.
Starting point is 00:09:54 How are you feeling, Jen? Yeah, the plus 230 on draft kings. So like I said, I have some ideas for some of these fights. And Alex Pereira is absolutely one of them, just because the price is too good to ignore here. I don't know straight up, you know, 50-50 who I'm picking to win this fight. I rewatched their first fight again this morning. And I left that fight feeling no more confident in a prediction
Starting point is 00:10:21 than before. But to your point, at the time I scored it 3-2, Uncle I have on rewatch, I think it's just like a clear three-two to me of like Pereira wins one and three, Anclyev wins two, four, and five. And Ancolaev basically wins that fight because he showed urgency in the championship rounds and Pereer did not. Like that was, and if it is because Poetan, you know, had a hurt hand and he can't throw the jab as much, you know, if he was just burnt out, whatever.
Starting point is 00:10:51 that is just such a razor-close fight that you're getting a great price on Alex Pereira. Even if you're factoring in that like the old adage of being champion makes you 20% better, you're still getting a really, really good price. So I think a Pereira dogshot is a must. Here's the only thing I am confident about. And I might look like a huge jackass come Sunday. But, you know, going on morning combat this week. Thanks for having me, by the way.
Starting point is 00:11:21 You got to come with your A game. You got to be prepping. And so I've been working my takes, getting ready. And watch this fight a bunch. And here's my take. This is the corner I'm planting my flag in, Luke. This fight is going to look nothing like the first fight. Oh, shit.
Starting point is 00:11:40 Because when I watched that first fight and I've watched a bunch this week, my main takeaway is how timid both men look. You know, they are feeling. kneeling each other out early. Ancolaev is trying to get there in the open stance matchup. Ancolaev is trying not to walk into the big power of Alex Pereira. Pereira is getting backed up by Uncle Alas' pressure. He can't quite get himself set.
Starting point is 00:12:07 He's throwing that, you know, little half-checked lead, low-kick, calf kick. And Anclyev is just kind of walking through it in a way that Yiri Perashka, for instance, didn't. You know, Ankyv ate that. with ease. Maybe he hurt the next day, but he didn't show anything. And so you got this very timid, awkward performance where neither man looked like they got out of second gear. And with all the heat that has been built up in this fight, they are talking mad amounts
Starting point is 00:12:36 of shit to each other this week. You know, they're trying to fight each other at the PI or whatever that situation was. With all of that, not even with all that, frankly, that's just the cherry on top because I think Alex Pereira, everything he said is true, you know. I was at 30%, I didn't fight my best. He's not going to go out there and lose this rematch by being timid. And Magam and I, I think he's riding high. He is high on the hog right now.
Starting point is 00:13:06 He is feeling, hey, I won primarily a striking matchup with Alex Pereira. I was the one who had by far the most effective strikes on the feet. You know, Alex had a bunch of low kicks and that's about it, whereas Uncle Alive buzzed him. a few times, you know? Like, he's, he has tasted Pereira's power, at least what he thinks Pereira's power is, whether that's true or not, I guess we'll find out. I think he's coming in with a lot more confidence.
Starting point is 00:13:30 He's going to press the issue right out of the gate much more, and Alex is going to come in, and he is not going to go quietly into that good night. So my take is that this will be much more action. And if Alex Pereer is involved in a shootout, one man's going down. It could be either of them. I am not confident that this will favor one fighter or the other because both men can get cracked.
Starting point is 00:13:56 We've never seen Uncle I have slept, but it's Alex Pereira, and we have seen Alex Pereira get slept. And so given that, the under four and a half right now, minus 110. Wow. And I feel so strongly that this is going to be a different fight. I really like that bet. That's the other one I'm going to be taken on the main event. Who would have thought you could ever get a Poetan fight? Who cares who it's against?
Starting point is 00:14:19 minus four and a half at pick a odds. That's crazy. Isn't like, because as I was, I was genuinely like, I'm going to bet Alex, probably, because it's just too good a price. But I still don't feel great about the bet as a winner or loser. I feel great about the value. But I don't, it's not like, oh, that's book that plus 230. It's like, he might well lose this fight.
Starting point is 00:14:41 I don't have, I'm not confident who's going to win Saturday. But then I was looking, I was like, I'm getting basically even money that it just doesn't go to decision on an Alex Pereira fight? That's insane. That is insane to me. So maybe I'll look like a world's greatest jackass, but that's where I'm standing on the main event. Anything else you have to say on this one before we move on down the road to the second title fight of the evening. No, just reiterating your point. Like, I also don't feel that confident in Poetan, but I just love the value on that. And honestly, Jed, I might tell you on that under four and a half. That seems nice right here. Look, life's too short to be betting overs, unless they're heavyweight overs, because
Starting point is 00:15:20 then the blood's pumping, then you're sweating it out, and it's a good time, a good experience. So that is the main event. I'm very excited about it. I am also, frankly, I've become more and more excited about this co-main event, a bantamweight title fight. Marab de Vallechefeely making the third defense this year of his bantam weight title. Basically, Marab has an opportunity to salt away, lock up fighter of the year. year. I mean, he's already, I think, the frontrunner, but if he goes out here and he beats Corey Sandhagen, three title defenses in one year, that's your fighter of the year, ladies and gentlemen. But Corey Sandhagen finally getting his day in court, his opportunity to fight for the
Starting point is 00:16:01 belt. Kind of strange situation. He's on a one-fight win streak. You know, he beat Davidson Figurato back in May, the forced knee injury, and he's just sort of the next guy in line based on timing and the fact that Marav's beaten a lot of the other dudes already. And you're getting the price that you would imagine in such a situation because Marab Davalishvili, a pretty healthy betting favorite, minus 380 or so. Come back on Corey Sandhagan plus 300. Marab's on that massive 13 fight win streak right now and just tapped out Sean O'Malley in their rematch back in June.
Starting point is 00:16:42 Is this just straightforward? Because I won't lie to you. When the Atabogotea fight fell off, and I know he's got a replacement, we'll talk about it. As I said, this was the other fight that was strongly giving climb vibes to me from Mr. Marab de Vallechevili. Is that crazy? Is this just going to be business as usual for champion Maraub? Or is Corey Sandhagan have something here? I don't know if he has something here, but this would make me a little worried for the climb.
Starting point is 00:17:10 I'm not going to lie. I'm the biggest, like, Marab Homer here. So you already know who I'm back in in this. fight. You know he's going to wrestle, push the pace. He averages six takedowns per 15 minutes. Corey's been taken down in three straight fights, and he was taken down in 11 of his 15 UFC fights. So Corey's pretty much always working off his back. Corey does stay busy on the feet, though. He's actually outstruck two of his four opponents in his UFC losses. So it's going to be up to Marab to get him down and keep him down here. I feel like there's upset potential for Corey. Just because
Starting point is 00:17:42 it's Corey Sandhagan, he is well-rounded. enough where I could totally see like, look what he did to Davidson with that weird 50-50 position. You could see him like popping some shit out of Marab and Maraub being like, ah, he, I don't know what he did by knee, you know, I don't know, dude. I could just see some weird fluky shit. I can't pick against Marab, though. He's proven he can outrestle anyone and not to do MMA math, but we did just see Umar dominate Corey in the grappling. We saw Marab dominate Umar in the grappling. So, you know, I feel like this probably goes the same way. I'm taking Maraub money line in a parlay. I'm not going to tell you not to do it, Jed,
Starting point is 00:18:17 because it's obviously, I mean, I'm all in on it. But I guess I want to see what the rest of the card is and what else you were thinking, climb-wise, before I tell you. Look, I mean, we're not locking it in yet. This is just one that's circled as a potential climb. I've had, you know, I like to talk with people about my possible climbs, you know.
Starting point is 00:18:36 And I've had some people push back and be like, I think Corey's got a way better chance than people think. And I can't quite see it. haven't spent as much time on this fight yet as I did have on the main event. But I think what we're in store for is basically the classic Corey Sandhagen performance, which is exceeds expectations, competitive, makes some work for it, and loses. Like that is, and perhaps that's mean to call that the classic Corey Sandhagen performance. But like, if you look at his resume, that is the.
Starting point is 00:19:14 classic Corey Sandhagan performance against elite elite guys. Rob Fawn, Barlenvera, you know, he tunes him up. He takes the wood to him. Those are, you know, B level top 10 guys. They're top 10, not top 5 guys.
Starting point is 00:19:30 But Umar Nomegamesov, what was the story? Umar won. Man, way to go, Corey. He really out kicked his coverage there. Big underdog performed pretty solidly. Piotr Yan, you know, I know there are people that thought that Corey maybe won that fight or, but again, certainly competitive, lost the fight.
Starting point is 00:19:48 T.J. Dillishaw, a lot of people thought he beat T.J. Dillashaw. I actually thought T.J. won that fight. And again, it was just, this is what Corey Sandhagan has done since losing to Al Jermaine Sterling, right? He has looked really good and proven that he is one of the best in the world, but he has also proven that he is not the best in the world. And I think we're in store for that, again, because I don't know how you beat Marab, man. That's just the issue. What's the plan?
Starting point is 00:20:21 And I have been very critical of Marab, and I'm not really changing my critiques of Marab in most ways. Because the critiques I've had of Marab have not ever been that he is not great. He is great. It is that his fighting style doesn't appeal to me that much, frankly. But, I mean, now he added the submission went over Sean O'Malley. He's getting better. That's the issue here. Like if I would favor Marab the worst version, you know, the two fights ago Maraubo of
Starting point is 00:20:53 Corey Sandhaken and he's adding tools, he still has that imprint like insane cardio. Corey Sanagan can't really do anything. I think Corey Sanhagen has a chance to make this competitive and not totally get blanked 50-45. I just don't see how he wins the matchup. But I guess that's why they fight the fights. So I've got this circled as a potential climb bet. If I don't, it will get thrown in as some sort of a parlay mixer. I was also kind of looking at the overs here.
Starting point is 00:21:25 You know, the variable overs are pretty pricey. Corey Sandhagen, he's been stopped by Aljo, but that's basically it. So you're having to take, like the over four and a half in this fight is minus 360. That's just not a bad. It's more than Marab Money Line. That's just not a bet I'm willing to make. I, in fact, I think there's probably honestly some value on the under at like plus 280 at one of the books I'm looking at right now.
Starting point is 00:21:55 Just because if Corey's going to win, I have to imagine it's, he doesn't win a decision. And if Marab is, if Marab is doing the Habib thing, right, where the knock on Habib before he won the belt was, well, he goes to some decisions and he's not the most exciting. and then he, you know, beat Ally Quinta and just finished everybody for the remainder of his career. If Maraub's doing that, you're getting a decent price. So I might actually splash on the under four and a half here, depending on what my book has it at. Because I don't know. If it's a 280, that feels like a good price.
Starting point is 00:22:30 Am I crazy there? No, you're not. And I was even looking at the Marab's sub prop, which is even probably crazier. Only two of his pro wins have come by sub, but you just mentioned he just subbed O'Malley. also you mentioned the Al Jemaine Sterling fight where Corey got subs. So like it's on the table. Corey's been sub, Marab just won by sub. And it's like plus 850 or something crazy.
Starting point is 00:22:51 Yeah. And the thing that I, again, this is all gut, right? This is all straight from right in here, you know. I don't think Corey's going to go out happy to be competitive. I think that he recognizes this is his one chance at the belt. He'll never get back here again. Just Bannon weight's too tough. He's had too many opportunities to get back here and has come up short.
Starting point is 00:23:18 And I think he recognizes, hey, this is it. And so he is not going to be a guy who, oh, once Marab gets rolling downhill, he just sort of consents to losing a decision. I think he is going to, you know, take some risks if he gets behind the eight ball. And that, in turn, will open up more opportunities for Marob to get a finish. So I actually am looking at that under And it looks like I can get it for around plus 260 I believe that's the price currently at draft Kings
Starting point is 00:23:48 And so Yeah, I'm probably going to take a stab at that One last thing that I used to do a lot more I haven't done lately Because it's just a little tedious Draft Kings does have a fun thing You can look at the stats And I usually look at these more
Starting point is 00:24:05 I've kind of fell off on it Corey Sanhagan only one in three is underdog. So Vegas has a pretty good read on Corey Sandhagan when he is coming into a fight. He is 10 and 1 is a favorite, 1 in 3 is a dog. And so I do
Starting point is 00:24:21 I am, I will say this is a leader in the clubhouse for the climb bet. And for those who don't know, if this is your first time listening, thanks for tuning in. The climb is my attempt to turn $100 into $10,000 by parlaying functionally and rolling between 28 and 30 minus 500-ish bets over and over and over again. We are on climb 8.
Starting point is 00:24:45 We are one step down. We succeeded with the first step of the climb. We have, you know, 29 to go. So leader in the clubhouse, Maraud DeVos really Corey Sandhagan right now. And that takes us to the feature fight of the evening. There's just no way this isn't. It's a guaranteed banger. It's probably going to end up being your fight of the night.
Starting point is 00:25:09 It is Yeri Perashka, Kaleo Roundtree, a light heavyweight contest. Can't wait for this one, Luke. Yeri, minus 180. Kaleel plus 150 or so looking at making sure. Yeah, odds haven't really changed substantially for when I was doing my sheet. Here's my notes. Yeri, three and two over his past five. Coming off the TK.
Starting point is 00:25:31 A win over Jamal Hill in January. Khalil, really good run right now. Four and one, unanimous decision in his past five, famously had the competitive loss to Alex Pereira, but rebounded by also beating Jamal Hill, unanimous decision win over Jamal Hill in June. Interesting MMA math there, you know, because Jamal Hill only went to decision against Khalil,
Starting point is 00:25:57 got knocked out by Yiri, but, I mean, inarguably, Khalil did better against Alex Pereira, than Yeri did. And Yeri had two cracks at it. So, in a-of-a-math, not doing you any great favors here. How are you feeling, I mean, aside from obviously loving this fight because it rips, how are we feeling from predictions, betting, et cetera, et cetera?
Starting point is 00:26:19 So I'll just say every time I look at a fight, I kind of like make a line in my head of what I think the line's going to be. And I kind of do. I kind of had this one flip-flopped. I thought Yeri would be a slight dog. Really? Yeah, just slight. Like plus 110, something like that. You know, I thought, I feel like Khalil should be like a minus 1.30 in this.
Starting point is 00:26:36 And then I look at the odds and I see that it's flip-flopped, but for whatever reason, that still isn't like selling me on Khalil, even though I thought he would be the favorite. Now he's the dog. I should hop on that. But I just feel like Yiri has fought only top 10 guys, his entire UFC career. He's fought a former champion four times and a former title challenger twice in seven UFC fights. Only one of those fights didn't come against a really good guy.
Starting point is 00:27:00 This one obviously stays standing, I think. Striking numbers are pretty interesting here. Uri does land almost twice the amount of strikes per minute, and he has a way better striking accuracy, but he also gets hit about as often as he lands, and Kaleel gets hit way less often. So I feel like it's going to be the output of Uri versus the defense of Kaleel.
Starting point is 00:27:20 I mentioned I thought Yuri was going to be the dog, but I still don't want to take Kaleal Money Line. I'm actually going to take the over one and a half here. How about this for value, Jed? It's only minus 120. Uri's hit it in five of his last six, and Khalil's hit it in four of his last five. Like, don't get me wrong. I'm going to be sweating that so hard, but like, considering they hit it most of the time,
Starting point is 00:27:41 it's a pretty good price on that. That is interesting because you're right. Like, that's not a bet for the faint of heart. Yeah. Right? There ain't no chance that's a bet. But, I mean, honestly, even based on how they fight, it seems pretty viable because It's, here he becomes a Tasmanian devil, but he doesn't start as a Tasmanian devil.
Starting point is 00:28:04 Like he kind of eases his way into it. What did you say the price on that was? Minus 120. And I'm actually parlaying it with the Marab money line. So those two together, plus 136. Oh, I am not seeing minus 120 as a price available anymore. All right. What are you got?
Starting point is 00:28:20 It's looking like minus 150 from our friends over at draft kings and our friends at Fandle. frankly. You know, so prices, other people saw what you saw. That's still a pretty good price, though. It's not a bad price. It's not a bad price. Run the stats back. How many did they hit?
Starting point is 00:28:42 Uri's hit it in five of his last six, and Khalil's hit it in four of his last five. Okay, so that's, you know, that's nine out of 11. Is that how that math works? That's, I mean, statistically, that's better than the whatever, So 60% minus 150 is. That's it 66% minus 150 is. I might tell you on that just for funsies. Because it'll be a sweat and God knows we love a sweat.
Starting point is 00:29:11 So I think I am going to join you on that. Let's go. I've got two unders, you know. Let's add an over in there. Let's have a little bit of fun. Can I interest you in a fun fact that I did not know until I looked this up? Yeah. This is only the second time,
Starting point is 00:29:30 Yuri Prahashka's been a betting favorite. Do you know the other one? I'd have to be coming off the... Who do you fight after the Ozedemir when... Who did he fight after Ozedemir? Yeah. Dominic Reyes. So was it that fight?
Starting point is 00:29:47 No. He was not. That was pretty close to pick him. Fuck. Because remember, that was before Dom fell off. Was it Glover? It was Glover. Oh, wow.
Starting point is 00:29:56 It was the only fight. fight and that fight was he was a minus 200 over Glover and that fight was hammer and tongs and so I was absolutely shocked to look it up both men have been underdogs more than they've been favorites
Starting point is 00:30:10 and both men have very good underdog records would you care to just ballpark if I told you Khalil's been an underdog nine times how many of those do you think he's won? I'm going to say five and four six and three baby and he and that's
Starting point is 00:30:27 obviously doesn't include the Alex Pereira where he vastly out kicked his coverage. So Kalil Rauntree, Vegas just does not have a bead on him is where you're learning. And honestly, scared the hell out of me because Iri Prasca is one of my boys and you always got to support your boys. And so this was a forced move for me, right? Like I wasn't not going to do this. but I have some concerns here just about your winning. The fact that he still won't be checking
Starting point is 00:31:00 low kicks and Cleo's going to chew his front leg up it's going to drive me insane but he does have more tools he can activate the grappling if he needs to do we saw him go to that to some extent against Alex I think he can try and bring that to the table against Khalil I also again I'm doing a lot of vibes on this car just this is
Starting point is 00:31:21 straight up feels bets all over the place here. I think, and this is based almost on nothing, frankly. But I do think we saw in the Jamal Hill fight with Yeri that he is becoming a little less Bushita Wildman and a little more technical, you know, gentlemen here. And I've likened it to Justin Gachie, where Justin Gachie, when he entered the UFC, it was like, I, is there nobody else? I'm looking to find my equal in here. And he brought his chaotic highlight style.
Starting point is 00:32:00 And then he got jawed twice in, like, he found his equals. Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Porreier went to war with him and put him down. I think Yeri, the first time he lost to Alex, his brain physically couldn't understand it. Because he is God's chosen, Bushita warrior. And so, and that's why he was like, Alex. Alex is using spirits and it's cheating, which is one of the funniest things that's ever been said in this sport.
Starting point is 00:32:28 I don't think people talk about it enough that Yuri Perashka, not tongue and cheek in the slightest, with absolute sincerity, he was like, Alex Pereira needs to not bring his Amazonian spirits to the cage because that's bullshit.
Starting point is 00:32:44 The greatest PEDs known to man are the Amazon spirits is the best. But I think he believed did in his heart. And then he lost again, and he had to reckon with the fact that, you know, actually maybe he just beat me in a fist fight. Like, maybe that's what happened. And so I think he has become a little bit more measured. He still has that chaos, but to bring out, but it's a controlled chaos. And I think that that is going to make him a much better fighter like we saw with Justin Geichi. Kuo Roanchi has always been a good fighter. But to me, he's, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:19 sort of that classic good but not great fighter. He had a great moment against Alex Pereira. He is still having a sort of career resurgence right now. But I'm going to back my boy. Yuri Prohashka, minus 180. I'm going to be putting that in because, you know, you got to stand with your people. Because if you don't stand by your people, you know,
Starting point is 00:33:40 you're nothing yourself, as the great Bodie brought us once said. We are taking our sweet time, but we'll move a lot quicker on the prelims, frankly, because they aren't as good. And those three fights are just as good as it gets. Frankly, I am hugely into all three of them. Still decently interested in the fourth fight of the main card, or I guess the second fight of the main card, technically. A featherweight contest as Josh Emmett takes on Yusuf Zalal.
Starting point is 00:34:07 Emmett, big underdog here, plus 340, the comeback on Zal minus 390. Emmett, old man now 40 years old, and he's two and three over his past five. unanimous decision lost to Lorone Murphy in April. That is probable future title challenge of Lorone Murphy. Zalal, seven-fight win streak, man. Unanimous decision went over Calvin Cater in February to get himself moved up and into the rankings.
Starting point is 00:34:32 Luke, how are you seeing this featherweight fight going down? This is interesting because I feel like the last time both these guys fought, there were similar odds. Obviously, they were fighting different opponents. Josh Eamon against Lorone Murphy was like a plus 350. And Zalalal against Calvin Cater was like a minus. is 400. And I feel like both those don't deserve that. Just like this fight doesn't really deserve that. Josh Emmett, he has lost three of his last four. They all came to top five guys.
Starting point is 00:34:57 Yair, Ilya, Lorone Murphy. These aren't bad losses at all. You mentioned Zalal, unbeaten in eight straight fights. Four of those coming in the UFC. You know, some of those are regional. But either way, hasn't fought really any, yeah, he fought Calvin Cater. But like, you know, hasn't really stepped it up. Also, pretty underwhelming performance there. You could argue Calvin won it. He definitely won one round. striking numbers they land roughly the same strikes per minute but Emmett gets hit almost three times
Starting point is 00:35:23 as often Zalal also averages two takedowns for 15 minutes and Emmett's take down defense is less than 50%. So I could see a world where Zalalalal just takes them down holds them down. But with any Josh Emmett fight dude there's always the threat of the K-O like
Starting point is 00:35:38 boom right? Like I there's so many guys on this card by the way with what I call fuck you power and I think you gotta do a parlay of all of them between Poeton Josh Emmett, Joe Piper. I mean, these are guys that... I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Yeah, please. My beautiful baby boy, Atiba, Go, T, A. I was just going to say, and Atba. And, all right, yeah, so add him in there, dude. These are guys that'll just put your lights out with a one shot,
Starting point is 00:36:01 so it doesn't even matter how this fight's going. That being said, there's value on Josh Emmett here. I'm not going to take it, but, like, he could put his lights out. We saw how close the cater fight was, too. A lot of stalling, a lot of clinching. No real, like, progression. You know what I mean? Like Zalalal is just kind of wading it out. He also made like a lot of greasing claims against Kater. That was kind of weird. I think Zalalal probably wins a unanimous decision here,
Starting point is 00:36:26 but at minus 450, dude, I am not touching that whatsoever. I'm instead going to again take the over one and a half. It is the alt total rounds line is set at two and a half. I'm going to take it in a parlay, but I just don't feel confident it goes the distance, but I also think it probably goes long. Yeah, this is a fight that I had earmarked as, let's just not get involved because I don't feel massively confident. I do think Josh Emmett's a little undervalued for the sake of it, 7 and 4 is an underdog. So basically if every time Josh Emmett's an underdog, you bet him, you're doing a-okay with your ROI.
Starting point is 00:37:05 You know, Zalal is still sort of an anomaly. He's definitely a good fighter. it is a little hard for me to sort of separate the fighter he has become from the fact that, you know, he got burned out of the UFC fairly quickly, you know, lost three in a row. Granted, Ilya, Tuporia, Sean Woodson, Choi Song Wu, those aren't terrible names. One of them is an incredible name, frankly. And Sean Woodson's like a pretty solid fighter, you know. But like, you kind of, you noted it.
Starting point is 00:37:38 who are the wins over the Calvin Cater is is the obvious high water mark of his career thus far Calvin Cater in 2025 that ain't the Calvin Cater of you know 2018
Starting point is 00:37:51 2020 2020 like that when Calvin Cater was cooking Gigacadze Calvin Cater he ain't the same dude I mean Calvin Cater he's not a five fight losing street because the law was number four of that right like that's I don't know how much stock to put in that
Starting point is 00:38:07 And so I think that just reflexively looks like Josh Emmett has value here because this is a very big price for a guy who, to your point, has only lost to the top top dudes. That being said, I've been burnt a lot, especially this year in backing dudes who have only lost to great opposition. Because sometimes maybe his law is great. And this is this is his opportunity to prove it. I don't really know I bet on a 40-year-old dude. The age gap between, like, I had it. but I don't have anymore. 11 years, 29 to 40.
Starting point is 00:38:39 No, but yeah, but the age gap, when for like over like a six year age gap, the statistics are like massively in favor of the younger fighter. And there are obvious reasons for that in general, but like an 11 year age gap just strongly favors the 29 year olds of the 4 year old. So I just don't feel confident in a bet here. I think, you know, Dogger Pass situation.
Starting point is 00:39:07 I'm going to be passing because I've already, I mean, I've put five bets that are going to go up on the board here. And that's not even including the climb. So I'm going to pass on this one. But I think it's a good fight. Makes sense as matchmaking. And, you know, I hope to look as good as Josh Schmidt does when I'm 40 years old. Maybe not the same beard. But man is physically fit if you have seen him on social media.
Starting point is 00:39:30 He is, who, buddy? I'd love to see you at 40 with a red and gray beard. I mean, you know, I got a little gray going, but there's no red. We could dye it. I don't know how you dye it and keep the gray in there. I have to work on that. But yeah, Josh Emmett, always dangerous, dude. And this is a big step up for Zla, so we'll see how that shakes out.
Starting point is 00:39:54 And that takes us to the final fight of the main card, certainly the weakest of the main card. It's a middleweight matchup. Abis Magamatov taking on Joe Pfeiffer, B. Joe Pfeiffer. Min is 225. Abis, around plus 170 is the price unless that's changed. Wow, that has, that price has shifted. He is now up to around plus 200 as money apparently has come in on Joe Pfeiffer since I took these notes yesterday.
Starting point is 00:40:22 Piper around minus 245, some places 260 even. So money's come in on Joe Pfeiffer. Abis, three-fight win streak, beat Michelle Pahetta in April. Piper, two-fight win streak, beat Kelvin Gagne. Gastilum in June. How are we feeling about the main card opener, Luke? I don't love the odds on this, right? Like, I feel like Joe Pfeer are a little too big of a favorite here.
Starting point is 00:40:46 But at the same time, like, who's Abous Magabano? You know, he has won three straight fights. And both of his losses did come to top eight guys. So it's not like he's losing to scrubs, but like, I don't know, man. Maybe it's just because he got, like, he got chinned in his debut, right? Or maybe it was his second fight against Sean Strickland. It was, I believe it was his second fight against Sean Strickland. And yes, that is absolutely looming large.
Starting point is 00:41:08 Yeah, right? Like, that's still just lingering in my head every time this guy fights. I'm like, oh, that's that guy that got finished by Sean Strickland. Yeah, I don't know if I'm backing him. I do think the biggest factor here, though, is going to be if he can wrestle, dude. He averages almost three takedowns per 15 minutes. Piper was taken down in his lone UFC loss against Jack Bramanton, and he was taken down in his contender series loss.
Starting point is 00:41:29 So clearly a weakness there. At the same time, if Piper can keep it standing, I mean, this is his fight to lose, right? A boost was outstruck in half of his UFC fights, including one of his wins. Not to mention Piper hits hard as book. And Aboos, we just mentioned, was C-O'd by Sean Strickland. So, you know, not to talk shit, but people say he doesn't hit that hard. You know, Piper does hit that hard.
Starting point is 00:41:51 So there you go. That being said, I do feel like this is a 50-50 fight, so I really don't love the price tag on Piper. But I also don't want to back a suspect chin against a power puncher in Abuse. So I am for the third fight in a row, taking the over one and a half here, baby. I'm actually parlaying it with the over one and a half in Emmett Zalal, those two together, plus 124. Interesting. I will not be tailing you on that. But I am tailing you on your breakdown of this fight.
Starting point is 00:42:21 I'm in the exact same boat. I think these odds are just straight wrong. Could be wrong myself. But I think this fight is much close to 50-50. It's a total doggar pass, and I'm passing because I don't want. want to be betting on Abis Megamatov. You know, Michelle Pahedah, not the same Michelle Pahedda. He used to be either.
Starting point is 00:42:43 And so that being the best win of Abis's career doesn't instill super confidence. That being said, I have, I guess I'm a Joe Pfeer hater. I have never once thought that this guy was the elite prospect, the UFC made him out to be. Maybe he will end up getting there. You know, he still is only 29. And he has some tools, obviously. but I he screams to me as sort of a hammer a frontrunner a dude who you know he just has mowed down people by being with his physicality and the first dude who didn't just wilt over and die against his physicality and Jackramansen beat him that's just how that fight went like he Joe Piver doesn't have like a deep bag of technical tricks he throws a real real heavy shot and if you do. die to it, you die to it. Kelvin
Starting point is 00:43:35 Gastilum is super washed, and Kelvin Gaston has an incredible chin. And so, like, Joe Piper couldn't knock him out, but he could just throw the thing. And to Joe Piper's credit, he did look a little more measured. You know, he brought up a little bit more tactics, but he still didn't show
Starting point is 00:43:51 a lot of depth. He doesn't have a bag of tricks. He's got a big right hand and a couple of ways to deploy it. And that's probably, like, that could easily be good enough to beat Abis. Um, but it shouldn't be good enough to be this big a favorite when he's not historically been not good of defensive wrestler. And Abis might just tackle him.
Starting point is 00:44:11 So my guess is Joe Piper wins this. I'll never bet on Joe Piper, uh, personally, because don't like him. Uh, Abis not going to bet on him because I, I, um, he gave me the ick. It's what it is. It's an ick. He gave me the ick when he lost to Sean Strickland. And I know Sean Strickland's actually good, but it doesn't matter. Once you have the ick, ask anybody.
Starting point is 00:44:33 Once you get the ick, you can't, you can't just fall back in love with that person. You've got the ick, it's over. Me and Abis, we're done. So, doggar pass, and I'm taking the pass option. Let's move on to the prelims, and we'll be a little bit quicker here. We will touch on this fight just briefly, though there are no odds on it. It's a middleweight contest. Got a lot of middleweight fights on this card.
Starting point is 00:44:55 A table go-tie taking on Treston Vines. Now, this fight does not have odds out on it because it, it is a replacement fight. Tibby Gautier was supposed to take on Ozzy Diaz. Diaz got injured with Drew. Vine stepped in. Late Tuesday is when he sort of got announced for this. To his credit, Vines was preparing for a fight at LFA.
Starting point is 00:45:21 That was supposed to happen next week, so he was bid in camp. But a pretty big gap in what's going on here from facing Andreas Chichomitis. who is supposed to be fighting over an LFA, to shifting focus to one of my favorite prospects, currently active in the UFC, a table of Gautier. For reference, Luke, Gautier was a minus 1,000 betting favorite over Ozzy Diaz, and this was what I had decided was going to be the climb, not Gaultier because minus 1,000 is too big a price,
Starting point is 00:45:56 but Gautier by knockout, which was around minus 500, minus 550 on some offshores, I was going to be climbing with that because of who Gautier is and the fact that when Ozzy Diaz dies, he dies spectacularly in knockout fashion. I'm going to guess we're going to get something similar, odds-wise here, a man who all three of his career losses have been by knockout. Anything, any thoughts you have on a table of Gautier, and if these odds are the same as the Ozzy Diaz, should this be the climb, Gautier by knockout? I think yes, this should be the climb for sure.
Starting point is 00:46:34 I'm a little worried at the short notice for either guy. Like, right? You're preparing for one guy. You get thrown a different guy. But I do think this is like as close to as an exact replacement as you can get. You're getting one for one. Yeah, right? Like Ozzie Diaz was probably going to get knocked the fuck out.
Starting point is 00:46:50 You bring in this guy Vines, who's probably going to get knocked the fuck out. So there you go. Gaultier looks fucking great, dude. Eight and one. Seven of those wins. coming by knockout. Still only 23 years old. Seems humble as shit.
Starting point is 00:47:06 Like, just seems like a real likable guy. He's going to be fun for years to watch. I like the matchmaking they're giving him. But at the same time, it's a little like, they're just picking and choosing anyone they know is going to get knocked.
Starting point is 00:47:18 They were like, Robert Valentin, here you go, Atiba. They're like, Ozzie Diaz, here you. Who's next? Are the taffa's going to come down to middleweight?
Starting point is 00:47:25 And they're going to be like, Tafa, here you go. Like, they're just giving him whoever he can lay the fuck out. So I would like to see a little step up in competition, but at the same time, he's fun to watch. I'll take it all day. Nope, don't step him up in competition.
Starting point is 00:47:38 He's 23. Let this man just sharpen his sword by cutting the necks of just random dudes for a while. I'll tell you what. I don't know if you watched Contender Series last night, Luke. I did because I watch every Contender series. And I got to tell you, in the very near. future. We're going to get a Damien Pinos versus a table goatea fight and I am going to levitate. I am going to physically hover above my chair watching those two dudes just just be physical specimens
Starting point is 00:48:15 who are 23 have barely been training, fighting and beat the shit out of people. I am so excited for Damien Pinos. I mean, after hearing his name, admittedly, I'm in my mid-30s. I giggled so fucking hard. time I heard that guy's name. So I am looking forward to him. Yeah, it's going to be great. Gotea Pinas. That's coming in 2027. It's going to rock. I think depending on what the odds are, because that's the thing, maybe because it's a short notice replacement against the dude who doesn't have any USC credentials, it might even be bigger. Like he might be minus 2000, and I can't even be climbing with a CO prop. But I admittedly, I haven't seen Justin Vine's fight. Three Kato losses,
Starting point is 00:48:58 Atebo-Gotier, boy swings a hammer, and I suspect this fight will go the exact same way the OzzyDS fight was going to go. So that's our breakdown for this very recently announced fight. We move on down the road to another middleweight contest as Edmund Chabasian takes on Andre Monez. Shabazian minus 290 to come back on Munez plus 2.35. Shabasian, two-fight win streak. Unam decision win over Andre Petrovsky. also still only 27 which is stunning wild he is on the kelvin gas alone path of being 30 and washed because he's fought for 10 years already uh muniz one and three over his past four and he should be oh and four over that four most recently lost uh to ikramalaskarov via t k o uh big price on a guy like edmund shabasian who uh has not always been the best friend of gamblers, frankly.
Starting point is 00:49:59 Is it worth it? Is it a viable big price? Edmund? You tell me. Edmund's kind of on my no-bet list at this point. I mean, you just said it. Like, he's just burned me too many times. I have been on the good end, like Gerald Mears chart, shout out. I've been on the good end to some Edmund fights,
Starting point is 00:50:15 but, dude, he's fucking won three of his last four. He still only has one win in the last six years over someone currently on the UFC roster, and that is the aforementioned Andre Petra. Petrosky fight. Petrosky just got laid out. If Petrosky gets cut tomorrow, this man has no wins over anyone currently in the UFC in the last six years because he does have that win over Brad Tavares. But either way, Munez has lost three of his last four after starting his UFC career with five straight wins. He was, remember when he's sub jockey? We were all like, this is the guy.
Starting point is 00:50:45 Yeah, he's sub jocchran, the most incredible show you've ever seen. I know. Just falls off a cliff after that. Both guys get hit about as often as they land, but Edmund is actually a little more active on the feet. With majority of his wins coming by K.O. And Munez having been K-Oed five times, it does feel like Edmund by K-O is a good play. I just mentioned I'm now fucking touching it. However, though, Munez,
Starting point is 00:51:07 he averages four takedowns per 15 minutes, and he's gotten more than one takedown in six of his nine UFC fights. Not only that, but Edmund was taken down in four of his five UFC losses. Edmund being a minus 290 favorite is wild, when both guys clearly have holes the other guy can expose.
Starting point is 00:51:27 I'm going to play it safe here. I haven't taken it yet, but I think I'm going to take fight does not go the distance in a parlay. 85% of Edmonds' fights have knock on the distance and 84% of Munez's pro fights have knock on the distance. I may also dabble, I know I've been saying over one and a half on every fight, but dude, it's plus money for this.
Starting point is 00:51:44 And Edmonds hit it in seven of his last nine, and Munez hit it in four of his last five. It's a pretty good hit rate for a plus money over one and a half. Great value on it. Yeah, I want to knock you for just taking all over one and a half's here, but I'm going to keep saying something I've been saying a lot as well. This is a doggar pass, and I'm passing. Because everything you said, right?
Starting point is 00:52:11 Like, Shabazian's just not a guy you feel confident in. He's 8 and 5 in the UFC. I think that's right. Never won as an underdog, so at least he's got that going for him. Is 8 and 2 is a betting favorite. but Moonee's three and one as a dog like actually pretty scrappy as a dog Vegas seems to have him kind of dialed in fairly well concerns I have that Shabez can't defend takedowns all that well and Moonez can still do that but
Starting point is 00:52:37 Munez should be on a four-fight losing streak he lost to the Iron Turtle I know he got a split decision win he didn't shouldn't have won that fight he never want to bet on a guy on a four-fight win or a losing streak but he has such a clear path if he just gets takedowns he can win the fight Shabazzian's never been the best defensive grappler, much less defensive wrestler. And so, and it's hard because, like, maybe Shabazzian's finally getting good. I will always look at, like, a 29-year-old and be like, oh, it's the classic Jake Matthews. It's the classic Jake Matthews of like, maybe he's finally doing it.
Starting point is 00:53:10 Maybe he's finally building on the promise he once had. Jake Matthews just lost. Similar situation, though. Granted Neil Magny is obviously a better fighter than Andre Bunez. he did lose maybe he'll get bailed out he lost that fight that's on his I if that had happened
Starting point is 00:53:30 in the middle of the round okay the fact that he won the second round is like okay buddy you were back in the fight you just yeah but it's still all right I mean we don't have to go into this but I feel like it's still fucked he won it in the first though regardless of
Starting point is 00:53:44 how I look in the second or third but he didn't because Magny wasn't that would have been a rough fuck up and it would have been a no contest because Maggie went out yeah All right. I guess that argument is fair. It was a fuck-up.
Starting point is 00:53:54 If Magnet had been out and then like at the bell or whatever and then, sure, but no, he didn't. So it would have been a rough fuck-up and he won the second round and then he got Magnet in the third because he's Jake Matthews. That's what he does. And that's the thing. That might be what Edmuchabazian does because he's Edmuchbazian. He might just totally punt this one.
Starting point is 00:54:12 No odds out on this. What I am going to be looking at here is the point spread. Because even if Muniz loses a Duke kind of thing. that he'll get around, right? Like just with a takedown and some control. And so depending on what the price is for a point spread bet, it might be close to even money given how wide the odds are right now. So I'm going to check for that when those odds drop.
Starting point is 00:54:38 But right now I'm passing, as it were. We move to a fight that I am probably not passing on, but I want to get your thoughts because I have some thoughts here. It is a bantamweight contest as Chris Gutierrez. as takes on Fried Bacherat. And another big odd set here. Basharat minus 4.30.
Starting point is 00:54:59 Let me actually check that as it moved. That's about the same. Minas 430 as a betting favorite to come back on Gutierrez plus 340. Gutierrez on a two-fight winning street. The one was a split decision over John Castaneda in April. Basharat, undefeated, 4-0 in the O.C.
Starting point is 00:55:14 One of the Basharov brothers, the better of the Basharaw brothers. He named decision winner of a victor Hugo in October. So been about a year since we have seen him, but coming back as a major betting favorite, how do you feel about these odds, Luke? These odds are way too wide. Like, sure. Basserat should be the favorite, but not this big. Correct. Both guys have pretty identical striking numbers and good numbers at that, landing about twice as often as they get hit.
Starting point is 00:55:43 Gutierrez, though, has actually outstruck his last 13 opponents, despite losing three of those fights in that span. Farid likes to mix it up, though. He likes to wrestle. He averages almost four takedowns per 15 minutes, and he's gotten at least two takedons in all five of his Zufa fights. I do think Farid, though, should be the favorite. I just feel like the odds are so much closer than they're showing here. Only one of Farid's four UFC wins came against a guy still on the roster,
Starting point is 00:56:10 and Gutierrez has only lost to top 15 guys in the last seven years. I don't think he's going to win, but a lot like you in the last fight, Jed, I'm taking a fucking spread bet on Gutierrez here. I think he can at least steal around by just being more active, stuffing some takedown attempts. Again, I don't know if he's going to win, but 29, 28, Basharat, yeah, I'll take a Gutierrez spread bet. Yeah, these odds are way too big.
Starting point is 00:56:35 I mean, Chris Gutierrez is a top 17 bantam weight, you know, like he's not, maybe he's not in the, he's been ranked before, you know, his losses have come against very, very top top shelf guys. He has like a particular set of skills that makes him a tough out, frankly, right? Like losing to Pedro Muno's and Songy Dong, that's it. And then the rest of the dudes, like he maybe doesn't blow the doors off people other than Frankie Edgar, who was old and should be retired at that point.
Starting point is 00:57:05 But he is just a hard fight. And so I do think the most likely outcome is Fareed Basharat wins a competitive fight and a point spread bet is probably is a winning bad. I think. But I'm going to guess that the odds aren't that great on that. And so I'm just, I think what I want to do here is just bet Gutierrez straight up. Maybe not a full unit. But look, the fact that he, he has a tool that fighters consistently underestimate, and it is those low kicks.
Starting point is 00:57:37 And he can come out and just chew up Basharat's front leg. And maybe Basharad is just like not prepared for it. And so, like, I think you're just getting very. value. And so I wouldn't say throw a whole unit on it. I'm probably not going to. But I think this is a really big price and, you know, a dog or pass situation. But this time I'm going to be taking the dog. So give me Chris Gutierrez, probably for like a half unit. Half unit at plus 340 still pays out quite nicely. And so I think that's where I'm going to go on this one. And we can move on down the road to the final of the mid prelimit.
Starting point is 00:58:16 the ESPN plus whatever prelims, the FX prelims. Daniel Santos taking on Yu-Jusong. Santos, betting favorite, very slightly at minus 140 now. So a little bit of money's come in on him. Ju-sung U plus 120. Santos, 3 and 1 in the UFC, unanimous decision win over Jiang Yuniang Li back in May. You won his UFC debut,
Starting point is 00:58:44 knocked out Jacka Seraghi in June. uh closed fight i don't have that many thoughts here i just have one prevailing thought i guess two technically what are you thinking about this one uh i think zombie junior looks like a fucking animal in his thirty second ufc debut when he got that probably knockout of the year contender a lot of questions for me here though it looks like he's a great striker but i don't know about you i haven't seen anything outside of his ufc fights so like haven't seen him tested anywhere outside of his striking so I have no idea how he's going to look on the ground. Santos averages three takedowns for 15 minutes,
Starting point is 00:59:19 including getting at least two in all three of his UFC wins. If Zombie Jr. can't hold his own on the ground, this could be pretty one-sided. On the other hand, he did win his debut with, like, one of the shortest left hooks I've ever seen and put his opponent face down out cold. So maybe this guy's got, maybe we need to throw him in the fuck-you power parlay. You know, maybe Zombie Jr.'s up there.
Starting point is 00:59:40 I'm just saying, this feels like a pick-um to me, so the odds are a little wider than that. I think I'm going to take a flyer on the dog here. Zombie Jr. plus 120. Let's just see what he's got. Do you have any concerns that Daniel Santos just beat a Korean fighter, and he may quickly become the Korean killer
Starting point is 00:59:58 if he can get past Zombie Jr. here? Just saying that's on the table. And you know I read into gimmicks way too much, Jed. So that's going to hurt. Back-to-back Korean opponents. I don't know if he has a personal issue with the nation of South Korea. I don't know why he's been booked as such,
Starting point is 01:00:15 but just throwing that out there, something to keep an eye on. He is not the Korean killer yet. Could, but, you know, be aware. The only honest to God thought I have is, I don't know a single thing about Jusung-U because beating Jack of Syracke. Jack Searge.
Starting point is 01:00:31 Jack Searge is probably the worst fighter on USC roster. Yeah, he's not good. So it's just like, okay, you blew up the worst guy. Cool. But you blew up the worst guy quickly, which is what you're supposed to do. So, like, that is how you're,
Starting point is 01:00:42 if you're going to be fighting bad people, that's how you should be fighting them. But I don't know what to make of it. I'm going to firm, just firm stick away from this because I don't have any thing. I will also say another gimmick. Do you know when Jusong You made his USC debut? It was UFC 316.
Starting point is 01:01:03 I was there. And who else was fighting at U.S. 316? Marab. Yeah, Mara. That's correct. There you go. So he's, Undefeated on fight cards where he shares it with Marab.
Starting point is 01:01:15 Let's go. Something to look out. Also, Joe Piper won on that night, too. Just saying. I mean, do you want, should we do a USC 316 parlay? Yeah, just anyone who want on that. The USC 316 parlay. Jed, I do have a bunch of gimmick parlayes.
Starting point is 01:01:29 None more favorite than the married to a UFC fighter parlay. It's a four-leggar. What a terrific. Well, that's a terrific transition. Because this could be two parlays, right? because our next fight is a, I assume this isn't women's band and weight. It might end up being featherweight
Starting point is 01:01:48 because sometimes fighters miss weight here. But Macy Chiesin taking on Yana Santos, Yana Santos could be in a couple of parlies for you this week. She is. Including a Santos parley. Daniel Santos, Yonis Santos could be a parlay out there. Chiesin, the betting favorite, minus 200-ish around now.
Starting point is 01:02:09 A little bit of money's come in on her. Santos plus 170. So, you know, when I did my note, she was a little less than that. Some money's come in on Chase and kind of understand why, if we're being honest. Jason, three and two over past five fights. unanimous decision loss to Ketland Vieira back in May. Santos, surprisingly, I never would have guessed this on a two-fight winning streak. You know, this is a winner from Miche Tate.
Starting point is 01:02:36 If you would put a gun to my head, I would have never said that she was on a win. streak and then I would be dead and this podcast would be no more. Strange fight. It is what it is at women's band-away. How are we feeling? It is what it is, just like you said. Macy Chasson, in her career, a lot like Edmund Chabazzian, has burned me a lot. I bet on her a lot as a heavy favorite and she seems to lose.
Starting point is 01:03:00 So I kind of want to stay away from that. Striking numbers, Yana lands more strikes per minute, but Macy gets hit less often and she's going to have a four-inch reach advantage. I think Macy's going to need to take this to the. ground though. She wants a chance at winning. She does average over two takedowns per 15 minutes, and she's gotten at least one takedown in five straight fights. Santos really doesn't have great takedown defense. She was taken down in four of her five UFC losses and in three of her last four fights. So everything's leaning. Macy, probably going to end up just taking her by decision.
Starting point is 01:03:32 I might also take a Yana spread bet. Like, I really don't know which way to lean here. I do that a lot sometimes with these fights that I think are close and go in the distance. Just take the favorite by decision. Dog has a spread. So probably riding with that. Yeah, I think Mace Jason's going to win this fight. I wouldn't be massively confident. I wouldn't put the house on it.
Starting point is 01:03:53 But Santos just feels so ancient. And she beat Misha Tate. Like, okay. What is beating Misha Tate in the year of our Lord 2025 mean? Or is that 2024? I think it was this year. Was that this year? I could be wrong.
Starting point is 01:04:11 Let me look that up. I can't remember if that was this year or not, or if that was the end of last year. It was this year, May. It was May. It was a Corey Sandhagen card too. There you go. Yep, yep, yep.
Starting point is 01:04:20 Like, what does that even mean, though? It's a meaningless win, kind of. It's not, because I think Tate's ranked. It's just Women's Bannamway is tough. Chason is really limited fighter, frankly. And Chason is like Joe Pfeiffer, if Joe Pfeiffer was a woman's band. and not how he is personally.
Starting point is 01:04:41 And that she doesn't have tools, she's just big. She's just big and physical. And conveniently, if you just look at her resume, outside of the Lena Landsberg fight, which was a lifetime ago, she's basically just lost to everybody.
Starting point is 01:04:57 She can't be bigger than does it. Like, Caitlin Vieira is physically very, like, imposing. And so Jason lost the fight. Irina Aldana, big lady, lost the fight, you know. Norman Dumont, also big, and that fight was super close. Like, it's just fighters, she can't just win on pure physicality. She loses. She can purely out physical, Yana Santos, she's going to win this fight.
Starting point is 01:05:23 So I'm just going to, I think I'll end up just betting her straight. I'll probably get her quickly because I think that line's going to keep moving. And minus 200's about the price I'm willing to max out paying on a Macy Chasson fight. that takes us to a bansomweight contest flying all the way under the radar here. Stunning how the mighty have fallen as Patchy Bix, former Bellator champion, takes on Jacob Wichlaz. I think I fucked that up. Sorry, Jacob, but we're going to go with it.
Starting point is 01:05:54 Patchy, minus, I got to check this. Oh, more money has come on patchy. Patchy around a minus 300 betting favorite. The comeback on Yaacob plus 240. So a little bit of price has come. man on patchy and a big fight big number considering his debut was a loss to mario batista man had all the hype in the world and he comes in and lays one of the biggest eggs you've ever seen with claws ksw ban and way champion not anymore he bailed on it to sign with the ufc but ksw
Starting point is 01:06:25 a promotion where their champions have done very very well in the ufc um i mean just a high level promotion and this kid is he's fun um I don't know if he's going to be the same kind of level of world beater that, you know, a trick is duplice is, but definitely a fun, fun kid to join the fray. This fight's a banger. This fight's awesome. This fight is on the early preload. How are we feeling about this one?
Starting point is 01:06:51 Is Patty May is going to write the ship here? Or is he about to have a Will Brooks-esque horror show collapse in signing with the UFC? Yeah, dude, I don't know. It's intriguing. I'm comparing this fight a lot to Peyton Talbot versus Felipe. Lima where like going into that fight on paper you're like oh god they're not doing Peyton any favors here they don't they wrote him off completely like I feel like that's what they're doing with patchy here they're like let's give him the toughest guy that no one knows about yeah yeah let's
Starting point is 01:07:19 throw this KSW champion in there I don't know it's worth noting I did do a little research on Wicklax he just coming off a fight against the same guy for the fifth time or time oh it's five times no what the fuck is that they fought five times I mean dude is a great rivalry Those fights are heaters. I don't know if you've seen them. Most of them are pretty fun. I'm sure they were for them to do it five times. It's just like, to me, that's like almost a padded record.
Starting point is 01:07:44 You're fighting the same guy five times, even if you lost half of them. I don't know. It just seems a little weird. He didn't lose half of them, by the way. Well, one was a draw. And then he drew one of them and he won the other three. One might have been a no contest. I could be wrong on that.
Starting point is 01:07:59 Oh, okay. Tech draw. I'm not going to pretend I know anything about this guy. I don't. I just read his fucking sure dog. So, you know, I'm going to assume he's a grappler, Jed. Do you know? Because he's got zero knockouts. So, yeah, there you go.
Starting point is 01:08:12 Yeah. He is, how old is he? Actually, that's a really good question. He's 29. 29. So we still got a little room to improve, but his grappling is a finished product. He is not the best striker. He has some tools on the feet.
Starting point is 01:08:34 His defense is pretty bad. Um, in his most recent fight against Prisba's, um, the, the last one. So in their five fights, three of them were for the belt. Um, and then two were pre belt, I'm pretty sure. Um, and it's, he got jawed. Managed to come back, got a pretty decent chin on him. Not like incredible, but a solid recovery and a fun kind of tricky little grappler. Uh, his striking, he doesn't have that any ideas.
Starting point is 01:09:04 you can throw some front kicks and stuff like that. This is a fight where like, I think Padgy Makes can absolutely win the striking, but we talked about like, I got kind of the ick from that Batista fight. Like he looked so bad, man. I don't know what to make Apache after that. Yeah, I'm with you on that.
Starting point is 01:09:23 And like, the other thing, though, is like, even though they're both grapplers, Wicklax has been subbed before. Patchy obviously, like, really known for his grappling. So, like, it's somewhat intriguing. there that like maybe this is a layup for patchy maybe it maybe just going to take them down and fucking choke them out but
Starting point is 01:09:39 normally in a grappler versus grappler like you're saying it's gonna stay standing and like I don't I don't want to back patchy at minus 300 in a fucking stand up fight for 15 minutes can I can I pitch something to you because I made a note of this and I realized I hadn't looked into it
Starting point is 01:09:55 when I was doing my own notes and I was like check this when the line drops patchy mix by knockout plus 850 on one of the offshores right now. And that, I will be absolutely taking a little flyer on that guy because, like I said,
Starting point is 01:10:15 because again, one of the important things to remember about knockout bets is grounded pound. Those are chaos. I do think that Patchy is probably the better grappler of the two in general. The only reason I'm not confidently betting Patchy to win the fight is he looks so bad against Batista that I am shook. Like, just straight shook. opposed to being like, put this dude in the climb.
Starting point is 01:10:37 But logically, I have to assume that that's an aberration. I think he's a much better striker, frankly, than Yaakov is. And I think he can win the grappling and just beat him up on the ground too. So plus 850, it's a huge price for what I think is a possibility for Mix to get back, to have a get right game, as it were. I'm just looking at this line now. I would be more inclined to take patchy by 50. Finish.
Starting point is 01:11:04 Plus 130. Still getting plus money on it. And you get the subbed in there as well, which is probably like... I want to shoot for the moon. I want to plus 8. I'm going to be betting patchy by K.O. Plus whatever it ends up being that I can get on the offshore. Won't throw a whole unit because it's a lot to put a whole unit on.
Starting point is 01:11:21 But put a little half guy on that. A little dabble. A little dabble. I'm excited about the fight, though. I think Wicklatz is... He's kind of Marcyne-heldish. If you remember, Marcyne Helld. People listening to this.
Starting point is 01:11:33 probably another polish guy who that is um like a lot of similarities in their game good addition uh should be fun patchy mix hopefully he can at least have a good performance win lose or draw uh that takes us to another fight that i actually feel pretty good about uh some side here that's puna sorriano and a welterweight contest taken on nikolai vera tennikov soriano you're betting favorite uh wow the price has changed from last when I did my notes here. He is at minus 290 now. I haven't at minus 230 earlier. Damn.
Starting point is 01:12:10 The comeback on Vera Tinnikov looking at around plus 235. I mean, I won't give the game away, or I guess I'll give the game away. I am feeling really confident that Puna wins this fight. I don't know if I want to lay almost, you know, minus 300 on it, but probably still would put him in a parlay. he's just looked awesome since making the move to welterweight. Punez looked so good. 2 and O'No knocked out Uros Medich back in January.
Starting point is 01:12:41 Veritinov, I thought he was on his way out. I thought he lost to Francisco Prado, ends up getting a split decision when, keeps his career going. But this feels like Puna going to keep that welterweight energy flowing. Probably throw him in a parlay, right? Like with whatever, all the stuff that ends up not being. climb, probably a parlay. So Puna
Starting point is 01:13:03 has a parley piece. I think that's where I'm at. I like him in this fight too, dude. He has looked really good recently. And Vretnikov, I was high on coming off that Danny Barlow loss, because I really thought Danny Barlow was like, the truth. And I was like, damn, yo, he went the distance with Danny. This is great. And then he fights Austin Vanderford and just gets finished. So
Starting point is 01:13:21 and I'm like, oh, I didn't think Austin Vanderford was that good. So I would ride with Puna here. I'm staying away from the money line, though. I'm going to go Fight end K-O here, probably, or fight does not go the distance, depending on the price. Just feel like most of their wins come by K-O. Puna's been K-Oed before. You know, there's reasons to take this, but don't really have a lean either way.
Starting point is 01:13:46 Just going to hope it ends in violence. I mean, I think it is. Puna just violent dude. I really like him at Walter Wight. Not that he's going to make like a title run, but I think he can make a run up into the rankings potentially. and certainly just be a really fun action guy. Two fights left on this, and then we'll briefly hop over into some PFL talk as well.
Starting point is 01:14:10 A well-to-weight contest is Ramez Brehage takes on the aforementioned Austin Vanderford. Vanderford beats Veritinochov, and then he's fighting before him come Saturday night. Tough scenes out there in the U.C. Vanderford, though, he is your betting favorite. Price tag on him. Also a little bit of money's come in,
Starting point is 01:14:28 but mine's 265. looks like the price for Vandeford. You can get plus 2.35 for Brahimage, who is on a both on two-fight win streaks. Brahimaj coming off the submission win over Billy Ray Gough in May, and Vandiford just beat Beretinokov in February. I don't have a lot to say on this one. How are you feeling about this one? I'm intrigued with this one. I'm not going to lie.
Starting point is 01:14:56 Brahimash has a negative striking differential, which is never good. You never want to see that. he's had three UFC fights Bro, he's had three UFC fights where him and his opponent landed one strike or less So one total strike In three different fights
Starting point is 01:15:13 It's fucking crazy Not only that But all of his UFC wins have come in round one So it does feel a little like If you can just hold off his takedowns And subattempts in round one You can outstrike him over the course of 15 minutes Vanderford does put up better numbers
Starting point is 01:15:25 In the striking department And he does have 100% takedown defense Through his two Zoufa fights so you would favor him there, but I can't help to feel like this is anyone's fight. Both guys are good on the ground, so I could see that kind of cancelling it out and it's staying standing. And although Brahimaj does have a knockout win in the UFC,
Starting point is 01:15:42 it was the first knockout win of his 17-fight pro-MMA career. So he's not exactly known for his power, but Vanderford has been knocked out in both of his pro losses. So, like, it's definitely on the table there. This feels like Dogger Pass to me, so I'm probably going to throw a little something on Brahimaj, but otherwise, you already know, taking the over one and a half in a parlay,
Starting point is 01:16:03 let's go. Brahimaz has hit it in all three of his UFC losses, and Vanderford hit it in his lone UFC fight, the over one. You are killing it on the over one and a half is going on here. Love it. Gotta respect it. Just no action for me on this. I'm going to guess Van derbyrd wins a decision,
Starting point is 01:16:22 but I was looking around. I didn't love anything. And so, you know, you don't have to bet. That's what I always say. You don't have to bet, and I will not be betting on this. That takes us to the opening bout of the evening, a women's flyweight contest as Veronica Hardy takes on Brogan Walker. Hardy betting favorite. Biggest betting favorite on the card, in fact, depending on what a Tebow-Gotea.
Starting point is 01:16:48 I mean, I guess technically it's going to be a Teba. We're fairly certain. But as of right now, Veronica Hardy, the biggest betting favorite on the card, a healthy price. tag of minus 620 the comeback on Brogan Walker plus 470. I'll just lead us off by saying, I don't believe Veronica Hardy should be a minus 600 betting favorite over any physically fit woman. Is that crazy? So I was going to just argue, like I was going to say, obviously minus 600, whatever she is,
Starting point is 01:17:22 is a huge price tag, but I like weirdly feel like it's justified. Brogan Walker is not fought in two and a half years. She sure hasn't. She gets hit almost... 30 months. There you go. She is competing. She gets hit about twice as often as she lands and she's still winless in the UFC.
Starting point is 01:17:40 Hardy, on the other hand, negative striking differential, which I mentioned before is never good. She does land more strikes per minute than Walker, though. Also, Hardy has proven she can wrestle if she needs to, and Walker has an atrocious 11% takedown defense being taken down four times. in both of her UFC losses. Also, not to do MMA math, but obviously I'm going to do it. Juliana Miller took Brogan Walker down four times on her way to an easy win. Veronica Hardy took Juliana Miller down four times on her way to an easy win. So, you know, seems like Hardy should be able to outwrest her here.
Starting point is 01:18:13 She's way too big of a favorites take money line. I'll take her by decision, though. It's minus 2.35, thrown it in a parlay. Six of her nine pro wins have come by decision, including three straight, and Brogan has lost by decision three times before, including her last fight. So this is the fight that I'm thinking about doing the stupid thing on. And I need you to talk me not into doing the stupid thing on.
Starting point is 01:18:38 And the stupid thing is this. The climb. Not on Veronica Hardy at minus 620. That price tag is too much. Thinking of over. The over two and a half is minus 400-ish. 11 of Brogan Walker's, 10 of Brogan Walker's 11 fights have hit that over. Seven of Veronica Hardy's nine UFC fights have hit the over.
Starting point is 01:19:06 Five in a row have gone to decision for Veronica Hardy in the UFC. Their average fight time is 14 and a half minutes and 12.5 minutes respectively. The concern is obviously. why why make this the climb first fight of the night too first fight of the night
Starting point is 01:19:31 thing etc etc the the biggest concern do you want to be climbing with a woman who hasn't fought
Starting point is 01:19:41 in 30 months because that is like I feel really confident this thing's going to the cards but she hasn't fought in so long maybe her body is
Starting point is 01:19:54 brittle and she just collapses because she hasn't fist fought. I don't know. And so it's hard for me to not bet it because it feels so certain. But man, it seems kind of stupid. Dude, so when you were saying that and I was just looking at it, I'm like, yeah, two and a half year layoff, 36 years old, I'd be very worried. Yeah, but she's fighting Veronica Hardy. I know. And it doesn't finish people. I know. It sounds stupid when you like really look at it, but it also like, it's making me nervous. And I was telling you that the Marab climb was making me nervous. I'm telling you right now, I feel way more confident in Marab than I do in this over two and a half. Wow.
Starting point is 01:20:33 Yeah. I think I feel more confident in this one, frankly. Really? I mean, you're probably not going to do it. But man, it's like, I just know that on Saturday, I'm going to turn this on and I'm watching this first five of the evening. And within 20 seconds, It's going to be like, man, I should have bet the over. I should have climbed with the over. It's the safest bet I could have ever made. And then I'd be done. I'd have the climb in the books and I could enjoy the rest of the car without concern.
Starting point is 01:21:02 Probably not going to do it, but man. You don't think, though, if that hits, you're then going to be tempted to throw the climb on something else later in the car. I mean, we could always double climb. You know, that could have happened. But I think we're going to pass because of the 30-month layoff. I think that's a good enough reason not to do it. but I who I had that circled I that circled for a long time but that's ultimately where it is that is UFC 320
Starting point is 01:21:27 we don't want to spend too much time on it because we are already pretty lengthy up in her but PFL Friday night really really good fight card frankly really really good fight card going down at Coca-Cola Arena in Abu or sorry Dubai not Abu Dhabi don't want to get that one wrong in Dubai your main event, a rematch Usman Numergometov versus Paul Hughes. And Numergummedov, betting favorite minus 205 to comeback on Hughes plus 195 at one of the books here. I'm not crazy, right? We all saw the first fight.
Starting point is 01:22:06 Paul Hughes, I think I scored the fight for Usman. Incredibly close. If you scored it for Hughes, which many did, not a wrong scorecard. Don't know why this isn't a pick-em. Feels like I'm going to take the Paul Hughes value at almost two to one. Wow. I'm actually the, I'm kind of with the odds makers on this.
Starting point is 01:22:27 I feel like the storyline going into that first fight was Usman's not taking it seriously. They did that whole stare-down. I forget the exact exchange, but Usman says something. Paul's like, oh, he's overlooking me. He's overlooking me. And, you know, they go into the fight. There was that head clash in the fight. There was, like, weird.
Starting point is 01:22:43 I just, it was a strange little fight. I just feel like Usman didn't take it serious. and I think he realizes now what he has in front of him and he's going to come out, I don't think he's going to finish him or anything. I think we're going to get another decision, but I think it's going to be a little clearer cut, maybe a 49, 46, something like that.
Starting point is 01:23:01 I'm going to take Usman by decision. I don't see a prop on it yet, but I'm going to assume that's Plus Bunny, maybe close to it. I see no props. Probably close to Plus Money. Yeah, so I'll take that. I'll dabble on that.
Starting point is 01:23:15 I do, like Paul Hughes and B.C. pointed out he was born in all. Australia, so I feel like I should be backing him. But maybe I'll dabble a little on Paul Hughes. I just look to this. I got to tell you, I'm probably taking two shots on this because the over four and a half is minus one 30. I don't see this fight getting finished. Yeah, I could say that too.
Starting point is 01:23:36 You know, if we get some alternate lines too and I can get something I'm even less concerned about, may well be betting that. Do you have any idea what I know, so all I've seen is that this entire card, I haven't like prelims or main, the entire card starts at 11.30 a.m. Eastern time. So like, I believe that is accurate. So I'm wondering when we are doing pregame preview. Yeah, right? Like this fight's going to be at like 4 p.m., 5 p.m.? Sounds hold on. One, two, three, four, five and a half hours. Uh, yeah, sounds right. Yeah. Probably five. Yeah, so I think I'm actually going to miss this whole card, which is a bummer, but I'll definitely put some bets in.
Starting point is 01:24:19 I will be flying on a plane back to it. Yeah, that's right. I will try and pull it up, but I may in fact miss it as well. Your co-main event, that evening, a light heavyweight title fight between Corey Anderson and Dovlett, Yagishimuradov, which I think I got right, way to go me. Nailed it.
Starting point is 01:24:40 Yagishamuradov, obviously coming off the 2024 PFL championship victory. over impakasanganae, you know, former, former PFL champion, matching up against, I guess, Bellator champion, whatever the shit he was at the time, it's weird. Corey Sanhagen's just, or not Corey Sandhanging, sorry, Corey Anderson, weird career, could do a Corey Parley. I was just thinking that.
Starting point is 01:25:05 You just put that in my head. If you're looking for a Corey Parlay, it's out there. He beat Dennis Galtzoff in his last fight, up at heavyweight, but now he's back at 205. Is Corey Sanagin 40 yet? feels 40. He's only 36, which is astonishing to me. He is the betting favorite on this one minus 210 or so. Come back on Yag Shmuradov around plus 180-ish. Any thoughts on this one? I frankly do not. I kind of think, honestly, that Yag Shemirdov's getting a little bit undervalued here, but not sure I want to bet it. So a lot like you, I thought the age was going to be a big factor here.
Starting point is 01:25:44 in my head, Corey Anderson was also 40 plus, and I'm like, oh, he's getting up there. No, they're both 36. Yeah, and then I'm like, oh, Yaj Shemirav's probably low 30. Yeah, no, they're both 36 years old. So I feel like that theory is out the window. Now you factor in, they fought four years ago. Cory Anderson knocked them out. It's like, yeah, probably still lean Corey Anderson here.
Starting point is 01:26:03 It's also a great wrestler. I don't know how Davlett is in the wrestling game, but, you know, he beat Rob Wilkinson. He beat Impa on his way here. Those are strikers, you know? So it's like, all right, let's see how you do against the grappler. I'll take Corey Anderson by decision or something like that. It's probably plus money. Because I believe in transparency and honesty,
Starting point is 01:26:21 did not look at this. Don't remember Cory Anderson knocking this dude out. He should probably be a bigger betting favorite. I mean, it was years ago, and Yag Shamirdov has, like, gone on a tear since then, so I think the odds are... Should probably be a bigger betting favorite. I'm not betting it, so it doesn't matter.
Starting point is 01:26:40 Mago Med-Magamatov, Sergio Pettis. Pretty fun fight. I'm really interested in that. Magamatov is minus 2.30. Come back on Pettus around plus 200. Pettus, sort of a strange career in that, like, he did the damn thing in that he beat Juan Archiletta, he beat character, he got the belt. He looked for, like, there was a time where I was like, oh, is Sergio Pettis going to actually end up being the better of the two Pettuses? Because, like, Anthony Pettis accomplished a lot in some respects, but he also kind of.
Starting point is 01:27:14 of didn't. He lost his belt so quickly and had such a weird career. I was like, maybe Sergio is just going to put a run together. And you know, he beat Patricio when Pitbull dropped down. He's like, oh, he's going to be the better Pettus brother. And then he lost a bunch. You know, he lost to Patchy. No real shame that. It's patchy. But he lost to Pachey, he lost to Kioji. We rebounded with the win over Huffian Stats back in June. But sort of a strange little run for Sergio Pettis. And Magamadov, Magamadov is, or
Starting point is 01:27:47 Magamadav, sorry. Not two Magamadoves. Double Magamad plus an off. You know, weird, good but not great, Bellator fighter is basically the book on him. I don't know.
Starting point is 01:28:01 It feels like Sergio Pettis should be the betting favorite or this fight should be a pickum. Am I crazy? I don't know. Like, I can't trust. Pettis against Magamadov's wrestling. I feel like Magamadov is actually a really good
Starting point is 01:28:15 wrestler. Also, like, he fought Patchy mixed twice. First one, Patchy finished him. Second one? I don't know if you remember that, dude. That was a Magamadov win. Yeah, he probably, he probably beat Patrick. Yeah, they gave it to Patchy. So, if you put that accolade on his resume now, it's like, oh, dude, he beat Patchy.
Starting point is 01:28:31 Like, that's a pretty fucking good win. He also lost to Raffian's dots who Sergio beat. Correct. I was just going to make that point now, the MMA math. Yeah, Sergio beat Raffian and he lost Raphaon. Granted, though, Sergio trained with Rafian for however many years, so maybe he knew a little more about his game plan going into that. I got to lean Magamatov here.
Starting point is 01:28:49 It was intriguing when I first read the line to be like, ooh, Sergio Pettis, a plus money, but I'm remembering the patchy mix fight now, and I feel like Magamatov probably one of the best Bannamates in Pf Latorre right now. I'm probably going to take a dog shot on Pettus. I just think this line's a little too wide, and I'm kind of interested in that.
Starting point is 01:29:08 Any other fights that you particularly care to talk about? I do like the JJ Wilson Archie Colgan fight, but I don't have any. I think that that's going to be a fun fight. Colgan, pretty big favorite. And probably should be. But I do think that fight's a good one. Colin Locker and Jack Cartwright, not a bad little scrap. Anything else that's jumping out before we get on out of here?
Starting point is 01:29:32 No, I was just going to say, like, J.J. Wilson, someone that I could talk myself into throwing a flyer. on him, even though Archie's probably going to wrestle him, but like, I'll throw a flyer on JJ at plus 250, yeah, we're not. That's the thing. If I wasn't already throwing some underdog flyers, I could talk myself into JJ Wilson flyer as well. And that's it, ladies and gentlemen, that is UFC
Starting point is 01:29:53 320. Luke, thank you for joining me this week. Next week, we're on to Rio, baby, as it is Charles Oliver taking on the Tush camera, Figgy Smalls, fighting Montel Jackson, Vicente Luke taking on Joel Alvarez.
Starting point is 01:30:10 So some bangers await us at Rio. Until then, you and I will speak very, very soon on Morning and Combat's pregame preview. But Luke, tell the people where they can find you, and anything you got to plug now is the time before we skid out of. Let's go. You guys can follow me on social at Maincar Minute. YouTube Main Car Minute. I got my new show, Prop Quiz, Trivia Show.
Starting point is 01:30:31 Jed's been on it before. We won't speak of that. We won't speak of that. New episode dropping this front. for that after pregame preview so tune in to us 11 a.m. pregame preview and then after that you go check out prop quiz i'll do a full card watch along saturday like i do every saturday you guys know the drill appreciate you well and uh y'all know the drill for us in may fighting full coverage this week i am on morning combat's pre-d preview so make sure you check that out me and mike watch party first one without e k c lyden uh you know black out rocking the black on bands and everything
Starting point is 01:31:05 It's going to be beginning of a new era, but at least we got some damn good fights for it. And I will see y'all next week for UFC Rio. Thanks for tuning in. Love y'all. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux Beauty and Fragrant Sets. Our special selection has something for every style and price point.
Starting point is 01:31:51 Visit our Holt's holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com. You may have heard of the sex cult nexium and the famous actress who went to prison for her involvement, Alison Mack. But she's never told her side of the story until now. People assume that I'm like this pervert. My name is Natalie Robamed, and in my new podcast, I talk to Allison to try to understand how she went from TV actor to cult member. How do you feel about having been involved in bringing sexual trauma at other people? I don't even know how to answer that question. Allison after Nexium from CBC's Uncover is available now on Spotify.

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