MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Can Alexander Volkanovski beat Movsar Evloev and Father Time at UFC 333?

Episode Date: October 22, 2026

UFC 333 is here! On Saturday at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, UFC 333 goes down featuring a title fight double-header. In the co-main event, Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili settle their rivalry with the bantamweight title on the line, and then in the main event, Alexander Volkanovski looks to defy Father Time and turn back Movsar Evloev and his undefeated record. With some of the MMA fanbase complaining about the quality of UFC matchmaking lately, UFC 333 is here to silence the doubters. On the latest episode of No Bets Barred, host Jed Meshew flies solo to dive into the robust delight that is UFC 333. Topics discussed include Volkanovski’s chances to continue his legendary run, the one big concern for Yan heading into his trilogy bout with Dvalishvili, the highly competitive matchups on the undercard, a huge leap for The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 168 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. I am your host, Jedmishu of MNAT Fighting.com, and ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages. We got a good one. We got a good one. UFC 3333 taking place this Saturday at Etihad Arena and Abu Dhabi.

Remember that. It's important because, Saturday 10 a.m. start time for the East Coasters amongst us because we are not making them fight in Abu Dhabi at 2 in the morning or whatever, which is perfect. You get to wake up instead of watching college game day on Saturday, you flip over to Paramount Plus, you tune into the early prelims and we ride this all the way through. And like I said, we should because it's a very good fight card. This is the kind of thing that many of of us have been asking for, and quite frankly, many of us saw on the horizon new was coming. I'm not, this is not to say it as a perfect card, you could always have quibbles, but very few squash matches on this card, mostly competitive matchups up and down, interesting matchups

with relevant fights and fighters, and of course, topped off by a title two for the featherweight championship out between Alexander Volcanovsky and Molsar Evluev and the bantamweight championship out, I'm sorry, championship trilogy. Well, it's technically not a championship trilogy. It is a trilogy where a championship is on the line. The championship rematch between Piotrion and Marab de Vallechevili. The rest of that main card is sick and we will get to all of it. But more than that, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, children of all ages,

we got a lot, a lot to talk about. And first, we should brief recap on where. I sit on the year, down 15 units, got absolutely slaughtered last week, deeply, deeply challenging at UFC Edmonton. I got one bet right on Edmonton and ended up just losing two climbs last week. So long-time viewer or listeners of the pod will know what the climb is. The climb is my goal, my ambition, my dream to string together 20, I'm sorry, 30. consecutive bets to turn 30 consecutive minus 500 bets some or in that range to turn 50 bucks into

11 grand and a few weeks ago we were doing so very very well we were at our second deepest run into the climb ever quite frankly as we've gotten up to step 16 or 17 let me look uh i was on step 15 it was the halfway mark when gable steepson's upset ended the climb version 17. And since then, had a couple of rough runs. We tried to rebound very quickly. I'm sorry, that might have been climb 18.

We tried to rebound very quickly. The end result was we had a double-stacked new climb last week. We had big ambitious plans for it, and both of them lost, which is really, really frustrating. Liz Karmuch and PFL on Friday. and then on Saturday, Aaron Blanchfield. And so we had re-racked Aaron Blanchfield,

and now we are on Climb, version 21, as we try to move onward and decided to do something a little, just a little fun for me personally. Also, long-time listeners will know the Climb. Originally was turning 100 bucks into 20, I don't think it was like 23 grand or whatever. I had to back that off because, as you can tell,

I've failed 20 times. That is, it starts to do. be cost prohibitive for me as a person with a media job. And so I scaled it back to just a $50 one. But I think lucky number 21, Blackjack, we're going back to 100 for this time only and see where we can get. And so $100 climb on the line this week and we've got a lot of steps. There are, despite having many very competitive matchups this week, there was a lot of

of things that jumped out to me as climb potential. And so after talking with my climb consultant, Alexander K. Lee, we're going to make a big push. We are trying to monkey leapfrog up early, get a quick start here, out of the blocks quick, and see if that can change your momentum. But that will come a little bit later, not too long. Again, we've got a lot of steps we're going to cover this week. But first, as has become customary, we're going to start at the time. early prelims. We're going to work our way up to the main event, the co-main event and all of that

by starting at the bottom the same way you will be watching these fights on Saturday, which means we open with a women's strawweight contest between Yasmin Lucindo and Nicole Colliari. And I was on morning combat this week, and as we pivoted to talk about this fight very briefly, Luke Thomas said, last but not least, because we went top to bottom. And I got to tell you, this might in fact be the least. This is a card, like I said, a fight card that I'm quite fond of, but this is one of the more forgettable fights on it, arguably, if not the most forgettable Lucindo coming in off a unanimous decision win over Angela Hill. But that was in August of last year. She has been out of action for over a year. I think she is not currently ranked, quite possibly as a result

of that because Angela Hill may or may not still be ranked. If I was a better host, I would know that. But you know what? That's one of those things I can look up right now and see that, uh, shockingly, Yasmin and Lucindo unranked, Angela Hill is ranked. This is, yeah, pretty classic, classic stuff here. Uh, this fight is, it is what it is. Uh, you know, Lucinda's been out for a long time. She is still very young, right? She is 24 years. years old and thus she has a future particularly in this weight class which is weak but um she hasn't yet given me a reason to be excited about her meanwhile Nicole collierry she's there um she she just is there this does feel like a wide line though lucinda minus 350 calliari plus 275 i think lucinda's

going to win maybe this line is appropriate um but i'm just not a hundred percent sure that that that feels right. What I liked a lot better looking at this because I do think Lucindo is just, she's younger, she's faster, she's a little more consistent with her work rate. But in seven UFC fights, only one of those has been a finish.

It's not seven wins, seven UFC fights, but six of seven fights for Lucindo have gone to the cards. And so I think you're just getting a significantly better value with Lucindo by decision at minus 145. that is the play I've taken here. Also, full disclosure,

I'm playing a little fast and loose with my bets this week. I'm deciding to have some fun. It's a fight card I like, which hasn't happened a lot, and so I'm spreading it around today, and Yasmin Lucinda by decision is the first one we get to. We move to the lightweight division, and a really kind of fun fight between prospects here. Cody Steele taking on Noah Gugnionn,

the odds, steel minus 165 betting favorite. Gunyan plus 130. Steels one and one in the UFC. He heel-hooked Dom Marfan in May. Gunnian won his UFC debut, a rear-naked choke win over Milos Yanichich in August. Steele was a hyped guy coming off Contender Series, and I was a little more down on him than others

just because he is old. He's 31 years old, which is old for a prospect. Now, he's that old because he had a very productive grappling career prior to making the MMA transition. And as Luke Thomas has said and others have said, has the kind of grappling career, like with wrestling ability and just the way he grapples, that strongly suggests he will do well in MMA. And he has done well in MMA, other than losing his UFC debut.

I still have questions about some of his tactical choices, right? Which is, you know, he trains at syndicate, so he works in a good gym. him, but against Wrong Zoo, the guy who defeated him in his UCDB, wrongsue good fighter, by the way. Cody Steele can at times be too willing to engage in striking contests, and he's not, that's better than being unwilling, but he is not a great striker. He's just a little athletic, and I think that hurt him in that fight.

If he chooses to do that, it'll hurt him here. I think he probably won't, and so I'm still backing him, but Gugnionn has proven to be like a pretty, you know, 10 and 2 Ares guy on a good win streak, like a very competent fighter. I think Steele just simply has the more, the bigger weaponry to go with that grappling game. As long as he leans on that, he should get it done.

I've got Cody Steele. I got him at minus 160, so, you know, you'll see where the odds may or may not shift, but that's the price point I got him at. And then that takes us up to the feather, weight division as Daniel Santos takes on Balaji Oki and again another really closely lined fight Santos minus what Santos looking at sorry minus 125 right now Balaji Oki plus 100 okay on a two fight losing streak got knocked out by Manuel Soza in March Santos also coming

off a knockout loss to doho Choi in May I really like this fight since this fight's a super fun contest okay may or may not have his back against the wall right two loss in a row you suffer a third. That's that's walk-in papers consideration, especially coming off the contender series. We've got a lot of new signies. Santos a little safer in that regard. And certainly I think a more dynamic game,

he wrestles more often than Oki does. Honestly, just on the feet, I think he has a few more tools. Oki still might just be more dangerous on the feet, though. But Santos, probably more durable. I know they're both coming off K.O. losses. Feels like Santos can probably suffer those, a little bit better. So a very competitive matchup, but because you're getting a current price on Oki, like I said, plus 100, earlier this week I got him at plus 105, and I took him at that because

it feels like a full coin flip fight to me. And so in a 50-50 fight plus money is the side to play. Only a half unit, not going full hog here, but I like it. Just again, probably wouldn't normally do this. I'm playing a little faster and looser. I'm already down just in a, irreparable amount of money at this stage. And like I said, this is a fun card. I want to be more engaged in all of these fights. Let me tell you a fight that may or may not be that engaging, though. The middleweight contest between Abu Bakar Vagayev and Jacob Mal Kuhn.

This is not a reflection of either man and their quality as a fighter because both are quality fighters. Vagayev is, he's got some like fairly laughty, 25 and 3 records. or something like that. You know, a former ACA champion made his UFC debut, picked up a win in his debut. Malcun has been around the block for a long time. He's currently on three-fight win streak, you know?

Like these are quality middleweights we've got. The thing is they don't finish the fights. Malcun, six of his nine UFC fights have gone to decision. One of those, one of his only, I think he has. two TKA wins in the promotion and one of those was a let's call it questionable and just leave it at that um vagaia of his 29 career fights 21 of them have gone to decision this is very likely to involve a lot of grappling exchanges not the first time we're going to say that today by the way and as a result i actually think the odds here are probably appropriately lined maybe it's

slightly too much towards vagaiev but if mow kuhn can't get his grappling going his like sort of relentless middleweight, kind of like a poor man's Anthony Hernandez a little bit. Like he wants to be wrestling and wrestling and wrestling. And if he can't do that, he suffers a little bit more or if he's just losing in those exchanges. And I think there's a real chance that that happens. But mostly I think there's a chance that this fight goes long.

But this fight takes a long time, given the two of their history in such affairs. And so I have, I'm going to just go ahead and say wisely decided to take the over two and a half at minus 350. And that is leg one of the climb. Now again, is this probably, is this maybe overreaching? You can convince me that I'm doing too much. But I said, I've looked at a lot of things and these all just seemed pretty clear to me about fights I wanted to do over, under's on. And so this one really think this is going long.

based on the history of these two fighters. Step one of the climb, the over two and a half at minus 350. And then we move to the last fight of the early prelims, a bantamweight contest between Colby Thickness and Asif Chappurov. One I'm very excited for, thickness on a two-fight win streak, unanimous decision win over Vince Morales in May. Choparov making his debut. He's the UAE Warriors champion,

a super highly touted prospect. I believe he's only 24 years old. And people have been talking about this kid for a couple of years. years, extensive amateur career at the IMAF. I think that's the name of the organization. And like the Russian amateurs and he just like a really, really, really long Emmy career that you can go look at his topology and see that. People have known that Honey Badger was going to be a real thing.

And I think he is. That's why this is line. So why Chopperov minus five, sorry, up to minus 600 at my book. I just looked at my odds here, thickness at plus 400. I think Chopraub is going to get this done. Thickness is impressed, though.

He's looked pretty good, but it does feel like he is, there is a technical depth to Chopraov that Belize being 24 years old, his ability to mix the martial arts. He has a very good sense of range. If you go watch some of his fights, he understands how to draw out attacks with feints,

pull counter is a very good wrestler too. I think thickness is just behind the eight ball in this. I still don't know anyone who wants to lay minus 550 though, and that certainly wouldn't be a climb bet for me this week, despite my belief in him. But a little bit surprising, maybe not, because it's probably just a sign that there is an immense amount of respect for thickness. But Chopra, inside the distance,

is only minus 1.45. And in his 11 career fights, you know, against decent competition, by the way, right? Like in UAE Warriors, he bought Reese McLaren in his last time out. It's not an amazing fighter, but a decent fighter. Like, he's, he has not been fighting total cans over there. It's a good promotion. And in that run, he has gone to one decision. Now, maybe thickness is just getting proper respect and that's okay.

but the shift from minus 600 to minus 145 for an inside the distance, that feels like we're getting some value there. Throwing a half unit on that as well. Just being like, hey, if Chopov really dazzles, I'm going to feel pretty good about being on that instead of putting him in some sort of soupy parlay. And that takes us to the middle prelims, and we are back to a fight that is probably going to go along,

a lightweight contest between Grant Dawson and Nerulo Alive. uh dawson a very slight betting favorite minus 120 alley of plus 100 uh dawson you know him he's been around for a long time he's four and one over his last five he uh submitted his last time out matush shrewbeske in may which if memory serves grant dawson actually i believe that submission in fact ruined a previous iteration of the climb or maybe it was the rafa actually it might have been the rafa garcia one that ruined a previous iteration of the climb. Because mostly the man in his UFC tenure, fights have tended to go a little long,

but actually looking at this now, it's not quite the case. That being said, Nerulo Aliev, that's a guy who goes long. Aliyev 4 and O in the UFC, a unanimous decision went over Mike Davis, where I think he landed 10 total strikes. Mike Davis said things that I don't agree with, but also his primary point was, that Aleyev was not fighting him and there's an argument

to that I love this matchup even if it probably won't deliver super excitement because Dawson is basically the great filter at 155 pounds if you can beat Grant Dawson you are a top 15

guy and if you cannot you are not and Dawson has the experience but this is going to be a grappling contest, right? And is he capable enough to compete with Aliyev in that? Aliyev is a very good control grappler. I think Dawson's a little bit better at creating scrambles. Is he going to be able to do that? Or can he just control Aliev? Can this be a fish out of water? If you start controlling Aliyev, he doesn't know what to do. And it's hard. I think this

fight is actually pretty appropriately lined, right? Like maybe just a very slight edge to Dawson. honestly wouldn't hate it as a stone pick-um. What I do like, though, is the over one-and-a-half here. The over one-and-a-half in this fight is, let's see what it's at right now. Oh, it hasn't really shifted. The over one-and-a-half in this fight, minus 475. In 15, UFC fights Dawson has hit that 10 times.

Aliev has hit it four times in the UFC and has gone to 10 decisions in 12 career four. fights. This simply seems like a matchup where the margins will be small. It will just be a grappling contest and both men are too good to get stopped in that regard. So that minus 475 is the second step of the climb. Two overs. This one only on over one and a half though. And then two more to come. It's going to be four legs. And another one of those is an over by the way. A lot of overs for me in the climb action this week. But we climb to the middleweight division in Abus Magametteov taking on Cam Raustin, 185 pounds.

Abuse Magamatov is the very slight betting favorite, minus 125, Cam Raustin plus 100. That's what I said about this card, man. All these matchups are competitive. I really like that. I don't know if casual fans will like this as much. I'm predicting a lot more decisions, but I think we're going to get some more back and forth, closely contested affairs. Mostly fights that I'm just not 100% sure in the outcome.

which has not always been the case the last couple of months. But Abus 4 and the UFC got submitted by, or I'm sorry, he submitted Michael Oleg-Sacek in June. Ralston, meanwhile, 3-0 in the UFC, picked up a unanimous decision win over Robert Breitjack in May. I was not high on Ralston coming off Contender Series. I think he's like one of the lesser dudes training at city kickboxing, but he's 3-0 in the promotion.

granted that opposition level has not been very high. Abbas is easily the best guy he's going to have fought. And the other side of the ball, Abbas, again, five fights in the UFC, or maybe more, but he's been around the UFC for a bit, and his losses have come to good opposition, right? Like he has more than five fights. He's four and one of his last five. But, you know, he's been around the UFC for a hot minute,

and he's beaten okay guys. he's beaten Michelle Paheta, Bruno Faheda, Mikhail Oleg Seychek, right? His losses have come to Kyle Baha'aulio, Sean Strickland, and Joe Pfeiffer. Right, like, two of those are extremely athletic dudes and good middle weights. And one of them is Sean Strickland,

who's the best middleweight in the world, you know? Like, or certainly has a claim to it, if you want to argue, he's not, sure. That's, there's no, no shame in those losses, right? this would be the worst loss of his run, but also maybe it just shows that actually I was wrong, Cam Raustin's quite good, and he's going to be a real player here.

It's why I like the matchup. I do ultimately think Abyss is going to win this, though. I think if he's forced to fight on the feet, that he would not be totally out of his depth, but he can mix and take downs, get those, and sort of just kind of be ahead. And as a result, Abbas Magamatov minus 120. I think he should be

Maybe not quite a two to one But I think you should be a bigger favorite I think you're getting some value here And I have taken Abus for a bet We go up to the light heavyweight Back to back light heavyweight fights coming up next The first one though is Nikita Krilov Taking Abdul Rahman Yakyaev

And Yakyaev Not quite the biggest favorite on the card Because of Chopperov But he is right behind it Yakyaev, minus 500 betting favorite. The comeback on Krillov plus 350, Krillov, 2 and 3 over his last five. Got knocked out by Robert Whitaker in July in Whitaker's light heavyweight debut. Yakiyev, 3-0 in the UFC, knocked out Julius Walker in June.

This is very clearly a big step up for Yakiyaev, but people believe in Yakiyaev. Alexander K. Lee, huge supporter of him. I think he's very good. I think he kind of is one of those guys of the future. there's always the concern, right, that this will be a Zhang Ming Yang situation where he looks dynamite against the lower tier 205ers. As soon as he gets up, he is revealed to be a bit smoke of Mirzi. I don't think that's the case watching the AKIA fight. And I also think the Krilov is not quite done, but man, he's got a foot out the door, whether he knows it or not, right?

Like he did knock out Modestis Bukowskis earlier this year, but he has been knocked out in three of his last four fights, right? His durability, never the most durable, but the durability seems to have taken a serious drop off. And I just, I don't like what I'm seeing from him. And so I think this is, yeah, this feels like not even the right odds. It feels like there's still value in Yak-Iv as a parley piece. And so you know what that means?

leg three of the climb is Abdulakman, Yakyayev. And so just to be clear, if I was only doing one climb, this is probably the piece I'd go with. I feel really good about all four legs, but Yakyaev, Krilov, this probably want to be the most confident in, which is almost certainly means that this is the one that's going to bury me. Confidence will kill you in this game.

Like I said, we stick at 205, though, because Osamot Mirzikana takes on Dominic Reyes in the prelim main event on Paramount Plus Merz Akana of your betting favorite minus 220 the comeback on Reyes plus 175 Merz was on a six-fight win streak

and then he got knocked out by Paulo Costa in April in a fight that was pretty fun and I think that was Costa's 205 debut with memory serves well not technically but technically technically technically we're like he'd done it before but it wasn't supposed to be and they had to shift because he was doing bad

weight cutting. Ray has meanwhile, four and one over his last five, rebounded after a really terrible four-fight losing streak. Then he had a tough time out, right? He goes out, he gets knocked out by Carlos Alberg, currently the champion.

But he recovers with a split decision win over Johnny Walker in April in a fight that was horrible. But the wins age is a little better as Walker moved up to heavyweight and looked good. Part of me really wants to back, Dominic Reyes in this fight. Part of him really wants to back him as he is significantly bigger.

He is more agile and fleet of foot. I can tell myself the story of how he gets this done. Mursa Kanov just got knocked out for the first time, be a little bit more gun-shy. Reyes can just use his length, his quicker feet, kind of pot shot, throw a bunch of head kicks, because that's what ultimately got MERS. If he just throws a bunch of head kicks,

maybe Murs just shells up too much and he can outwork him. I can tell myself the story of it, but I just don't know if I believe it. Reyes could do that, and a peak Reyes probably would do that. But ever since the four-fight losing streak, he doesn't feel like he fights with that sort of vivacity that you would want to see from him. And of course, the durability is a concern. And Mersikonov, assuming he doesn't change his style up after getting knocked out, he's probably just going to walk you down and chuck them and eventually that will find a home. I don't ultimately know where I wanted to settle on this fight is the thing.

And so I've yet to drop a bet on it because I'm trying to have action on most of these things, but Merzikanov by K.O. is like minus 1.25. So you're not even really getting any value there. I think ultimately the answer I settled on is I'm probably just not going to bet this one. because I don't love the price and I don't have to bet everything. So I'm going to pass and we can move on to the main card of U.C. 333. And it kicks off of the featherweight context between Aaron Pico and Losein, Kata. Again, said this so many times.

I love this fight. I love this fight card. Pico, a very modest betting favorite minus 135, Keta plus 110. Pico, 4-1 over 5. unanimous decision went over Pitbull in April after losing to Lorone Murphy. Cato meanwhile, one in the UFC, he lost his debut to Nathaniel Wood, and then knocked out Mohamed Naimov his last time out. This is the money is slowly coming on Pico, and that feels right to me,

because A.M. Pico is a curious case, and we spent a lot of time on morning combat this week talking about him. I'm just not sure if he's going to do it. When he came into MMA, he was the prince that was promised. He was one of the greatest prospects we'd ever thought we would see, right? Like a guy who was

probably Olympic caliber. He missed out on the Olympic team trials, but by such a small margin, if he had devoted himself for four more years, decent chance he makes it, right? Also, golden gloves, super athletic, just seems like a guy who could

be everything you want. And then his career has been Mercurial. When he looks great, he looks like the best in the world. But sometimes he is too reckless. He is certainly not durable. That doesn't necessarily mean he can't take

a punch, but durability is not a strength of his and because he has a tendency to get overly reckless, that means he has to take punches sometimes in ways that don't work. Just look at the Laurel Murphy fight. one of his worst performances, frankly, of all time.

And Murphy is very good, so that is what that is. Keita, meanwhile, certainly can hit hard, but he lacks some technical refinement that I'd like to see to be like a real, to feel really confident his ability to get it to Pico, especially because the performance we just saw from Pico, right? Now, remains to be seen whether that performance will be something, like, oh, this was a changing of the tides for him. But much more measured in his fight with Pitbull.

He still got buzzed a couple of times, but he seemed to be really aware that that's a threat. And, hey, I don't need to force issues that aren't there. I can use my body punching, which is terrific. I love the way it works the body. I can let my athleticism carry me in a positive way. I can mix and takedowns, all those sorts of things. I think he's just a good enough wrestler to mitigate a lot of what Keita does.

and as long as he doesn't get chin, I think he'll be okay. And so I like Aaron Pico to get the win. I think Aaron Pico is straight up, even at this price, at the price that is shifted, is probably a fair bet. But I was feeling a little friskear. And I think if Pico wins, I don't know that he's going to get Pallagioki. I'm sorry, Bologioki. Lozine Keta out of there.

I think Pico would knock out Belagiochi as a hot take. But I think he would get it done. but, you know, Keta has been knocked out, right? But that was a TKO would be a leg injury, his one stoppage loss. Otherwise, never had it happen. Could happen, not saying it's impossible, but you're getting a much better price by Pico by decision. It's around plus 375.

So that's where I took. And we'll see if Pico can build some momentum. Because I do think it's due or die for him. I think another loss probably ends his title aspirations, at least in the U.S.C. We move to the heavyweight division. Alexander Volkov takes on Rizvon Kunev in a pretty closely lined fight to a lot of surprise from me, quite frankly. Volkov 4 and 1 over Walthorkeepsie Koste in May. Kuniyev 2 in the U.S.s.

He's on two-fight win streak, knocked out Tyrell Fortune in July. Volkov minus 1-135. Kuni of plus 110. just not at all the price point I thought we'd be getting on this fight. I think Volkov has a case to being the best heavyweight in the world with Tom Aspinall in career limbo, right? Certainly should be the eye fighting for the heavyweight title. It's not what happened, but he certainly is the most deserving of that.

Should be on a big long win streak, right? He's form 1 over 5. That one loss, Stone Cold Robbery. He very clearly beats Serogon. I don't know many people who even disagree with that. this is a guy who has i have an immense amount of respect for he has just continued to chop wood and get better every time out kind of like 50 fights or something insane and he's not going to dazzle you it's not the prettiest thing but for a man who has zero athleticism to have become as

as good as he is is a real testament to being a student of the game hard work and just constant 1% better every day. That's him. If I get 1% better every day, where will I be in 10 years? You might be the best heavy wet on earth, you know? Whether he'll ever get to prove that?

I don't know. But Kunia, meanwhile, solid fighter, but like just a generic guy in many respects. Volkov has the height, has the reach. I don't think Kunia

is going to like have a ton of success getting him down. And Volkov has become so potent at body kicks. using his length, fighting in the manner he wants to fight. I struggle to see how Kuhnev wins this fight. Because I don't think he's going to get a one hit off. And I don't think he's going to be wildly successful with the wrestling.

And so I think he's just going to lose slowly over 15 minutes. As a result, I'm taking Volkov by decision at plus 170. I'll tell you what else I'm doing. Anyone who was a long time listening to this show, they know I love a gimmick parlay. Probably the second greatest gimmick parlay of all time is available on this fight card. The greatest being the Christian Duncan parlay, because there are two Christian Duncanes. There's a Christian Lerner Duncan and Chris Duncan. And that was the greatest parlay also hit.

The second greatest parlay is the Alexander Volk parlay, because there's an Alexander Volkov and an Alexander Volkanowski on this card. And if you think I'm not going to parlay those two men together, you are outside your mind. So, Alexander Volkov parlayed with Alexander Volkanovsky in the Alexander Volk Parlay. We're taking that, but like I said, also going to take Volkov by decision. We move to the feature bout of the evening. Lonnie Kavanaugh taking on Ramadan Timorov in a flyweight contest. Kavanaugh minus 115, Timorov minus 105.

so extremely, extremely close, closely lined contest here. And I love this fight. I think this is a terrific fight, right? We are, on the advent of 125 becoming the second or third best weight class in the sport. And it's for guys like this because Kavanaugh is a top 10 guy. I think Timorov is like, his top 15 is ranked. But both men are young and ascending. and Kavanaugh has been very mercurial.

His best is amazing, and then sometimes he'll lose to Charles Johnson, right? Tim Ravs on 12-fight Winstreet coming into this fight, right? Three and O in the UFC, knocked out Steve Irseg, his last time out, right? These are guys who are the new age of 125, and I get very excited thinking that the winner of this is pretty close to fighting Josh Van, which is awesome. So many fun things happening at 125,

and this fight itself is just very fun. Both have sort of dynamic karate styles, but in a very different way. Kavanaugh wants to be bouncy, you know, have that sort of karate stance, but he wants to slow you down. He wants to make the fight happen in a point-fighting karate

one-for-one pit-pat sort of thing. I land cleaner, more technical strikes than you, and maybe I'll get you out of there. Timorov is bouncy, bouncy, bouncy, explode. Bouncy, bouncy, explode, right? Like, he wants to hurt you in a way that is sometimes a little bit reckless,

sometimes a little bit wild, but he will keep punching. He will do it. He'll do the Lioto Machita. If you were around long enough to have watched Leoto Machita, Machita, machida would do the karate bounce, bounce, bounce, long range bounce. And then he would do these blitzing runs.

And like, the blitzing runs are a lot of Timorov's game. There's punching in combination. just keeps going. And it is a really fun to watch. If you are kind of fighter who backs up on a straight line, curtains. Can't be doing that against the guy here. How does that match up against Kavanaugh?

I am genuinely not sure. Because it's one of those that feels like it could work poorly until it lands. Because Kavanaugh is pretty good at footwork. And so if he's just slowing Timorov's blitzes down, taking his shots, he could absolutely give his hand raise. However, Kavanaugh's single biggest weakness is that sometimes he just sort of lapses his defense. It just sort of, he just quits.

And against the guy who will keep punching like Timorov, this might, like I said, it might just be a situation where Kavanaugh is winning until he is not. And for that reason, and then honestly, for probably the worst reason you could do something, pure vibes, like a pure vibes feeling as I was watching. I watched a lot of tape on these two. And I just couldn't help but be like watching these guys fight, one guy fights like a force of nature and one guy doesn't. And I just had this like, that's the guy.

That's the guy who's going to win it. So I'm on Ramzan Timrov. Mine is 105. And a little bit of money has been coming in on, I think this probably won't get hugely shifted. We're looking at basically a pick-um almost any time. But certainly if either man gets to be a plus money, and I'm very interested in that.

But I like Timorov more in general to win this fight. And now we get to the big one, boys. Banimate Championship fight. Piotr-Yon, Mavlovichvili 3, Yon, minus 185, Devalichvili, plus 1.1. 150. Yon on a four-fight win streak obviously beat Marab at 323 in December

to reclaim the belt. Devalishvili. 14-fight win streak that Jan interrupted with his win at 323. Now they finally get the set of the score. See how it all shakes out.

I love this fight. Actually, the odds... I think it quoted you just 185. Looking at my book now, have shifted minus 155 for Yan to Volus Fili plus 125. So getting closer to even. And yeah, that tracks to me. Quite honestly, that feels appropriate.

I think this fight really comes down to one thing for me. Because if you told me that Piorean is at 100% going into this fight, I will take him to win. I think there are arguments against it, right? Like, I think there is an argument, and it's not even a bad argument that Marab, did too much last year. He's trying to have four title fights in one year and that's simply too much and thus he could not compete. I believe that that's true. I'm also not believe, I'm not sure that it mattered because Peoria was so well prepared for that fight. Marab himself was like, I realized in the second round I wasn't going to get takedowns unless I wasn't going to win and I just sort of

kept fighting. Jan was so, so smart about not just defending Marab's takedowns, because I think people misremember the first fight. Morab won cleanly, and he got a lot of takedowns. He also failed a lot, too, on takedowns. He just never stopped shooting. I think he went like 11 for 50, which is just like he just kept going, kept going. In this one, in the rematch,

Marab went like two for 25 or something because it wasn't just that Jan was stuffing takedowns like he did the first time. He was stuffing and separating, stuffing and hitting. Yan has historically loved like limp leg defenses for single legs. You grab a single, I pivot and I run away.

But then in the first fight, Marab would use that to just climb his back and like, now I've got a real waistlock. Now we're doing this. This time, Jan kept everything in front of him in the rematch. Single stuff keep separate. Right?

Like he just wasn't letting Marab build momentum, which is really the thing that Marab really thrives on momentum. Once he gets going, it feels like a snowball rolling downhill with that cardio and that ability to press, press, press. Jan didn't let him and then just kept hitting him when he could. He had the jab working in space. He controlled the distance really well, and he left Marav.

He beat Marab in such a way that you think, I'm not sure Maraub has answers. And that is what's fascinating. Maybe Maraub does. Maybe Maraub and his team goes back and looks at it and says, okay, he's going to do this. Here's how we counter and how we prepare. to respond. I'm not sure. But to me, the big question is not that, because I, it wouldn't shock me if Marab had some wrinkles. You rarely have too many new wrinkles at this stage of a fight career. Marab getting up there in years, particularly for Bannamweight. But what interest me is the back

surgery for Piotriani. A back surgery in January, nine hours under anesthesia for lumbar surgery. and this is, you know, 10 months from that. That is a real concern because I am not a doctor, but backs are important. And this feels like a quick turnaround. I mean, Sean O'Malley came out and was like, I didn't realize it was that close. When I got surgery on my hip that really compromised me for the rematch with Marab,

the thing is a bad idea. I'm not a medical doctor, but it could be concerning because if he is not, if he is at all compromise, that really shifts things in favor of Marab. I strongly consider placing a bet on Marab. As the line has come down, I'm a little less interested because there's a part of me that also just wants to go

Peeryon's professional. Trust him. He knows his body. He's feeling confident enough to take this fight. Trust that he knows what he's doing, he'll be good. And everything that my eyeballs tell me says that Pierrean should win this fight. But I got a lot of questions. What I don't have questions, though, is how it's going to look.

because one way or the other, this is going long. Marant de Valle is really, while he gets hit more than he used to, and his durability isn't amazing, he's durable because his cardio is very good, and when he gets buzzed, he can just sort of tie you up and slow you down and recover. But he can get buzzed, but Jan has not really been much a put fighters to the sword kind of guy anyway.

He is going to slowly chip, chip, chip away, and either win long or win late, but not win early, certainly. That really hasn't been Piotrana's game. So the over three and a half here, it's minus 550, so it's a little over, but we've got a couple of other ones. And so this is the fourth leg of the climb. We take all four of those, Yandavazvili over three and a half, Abdulak Mjav, straight up. Dost and Aliev, over one and a half, Vagayev, Malkun, over two and a half. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is four steps of the climb,

and it's almost five because of the odds. It's four officially because we're going by counting stats, but it gets us just below the target number for five climb steps. So probably won't work, and this will be a huge waste of my efforts, but I want to slingshot up to Climb 21, Climb Blackjack. And we slingshot now to the main event of the evening. into Volkanovsky, Mavsar Evluev, a featherweight title fight with historical implications. Significant history on the line.

Volkanovsky, a little bit of money is coming in on him. This was a pickum at my book earlier this week. Now Volkanovsky minus 115. So a very small amount of money has come in on him from that side as the minimal favorite over Eveleev at minus 105. still essentially a pick-um. Volk, three and two over his last five, two-fight win streak, two-fight Diego-Lopez streak, beat Lopez by decision in February.

Evov, by now you know, 20 and O, 10-0 in the UFC. Majority decision went over Laurel Murphy in March to finally get here. Great fight. This is a fight that has historical implications for Volk's claim as the featherweight goat. It's a fight that is historically important outside of the goat conversation. Like, fighters don't do this. Volcanovsky obviously beat the generation before him on his rise, and he reigned over his generation for a long time before ultimately losing to the new generation in Ilya.

He rebounds with a win over Diego Lopez. I still don't know how to rate those. I know that they're good, but how good, because Lopez should have never been fighting for the belt in the first place. but this is the guy who should have been fighting for the belt, right? Like, Evov is the guy who won and I, we should have been fighting for the belt. And so now this is a third generation of dominant fighter that he could beat. And that is rare and impressive if he can pull it off.

And the fact that he wants this fight, called for this fight, is very, very commendable. Is he biting off more than he can chew at 38 years old? Maybe? I don't know. What I know about this fight is that a prime vulgarine, I'd feel extremely confident in winning this fight. But this is not a prime Volkanowski.

He has said that he feels the best he's ever felt. And I'm sure that some portion of that is true. But 38-year-olds just aren't in their prime compared to the 32-year-old self. That's just not how the world works. And Evelwev is in his absolute prime. This is a physical hoss. You go see some of the stuff he does in training. It's insane.

a technical, I won't say savant, but an extremely, like technical grappler with control positions and chaining, you know, attacks. He's not Islam Makachev level, but he's a very, very good fighter. And I think a better striker than people give him credit for, because his striking is it good, but it is effective. And a little bit of a Habib way, I'd say actually probably a little technically better than Habib, but Habib was a really good striker. that people never gave him credit because it looked really ugly.

And if you just put him in a kickboxing match, he would not be a good striker. But because there is the threat of takedowns, because the dynamism of MMA, Habib's striking, how many times did Habib lose fights on the feet? Not a lot. Like, even go back to fights he won. The exchanges on the feet, you know, Connor took, I think the third round of their fight was almost, was entirely on the feet and Connor won that. But like, you know, he went a full round.

chewing up ally quinto on the feet because he can be effective because of the threat of wrestling and that is where mobsar is for me right like i think he can be he had he had success against siro murphy on the feet right like he won that fight and then he salted it he's probably down before he started like started really leaning into the wrestling but he salted the fight away with wrestling right like so vokonoski is significantly better operator in the stand-up and if he can mostly stop the grappling. Probably a really good chance Volkanowski wins. But to me, this just feels like we're going to get a slightly lesser version of Volk

Islam 1, right? Because Volk's just not as good as that version of him. I think that the version that fought Islamakov is the best Alexander Volkanovsky that was. I think that was his absolute peak. And Mopsar is not as good as Zazal Makhchav, who is the best fighter, probably the best fighter of the generation or certainly has a claim to it, best pound-th-pound fighter in the world right now. Like he,

Mopstar's not that, but we're getting a very slightly diminished version of that. I think we are going to get, uh, full phase fighting here. I think Evov is going to score takedowns. They're going to strike. And as much as I favor Alexander Volkanowski,

like in a vacuum on the feet, the reality is, Volk has become significantly more hitable in recent years. And his chin has gotten worse. It's not to say his chin is bad. but he never had a great chin. He has great recoverability. Like he's super good cardio and he can recover very well.

But go back and watch some of his other fights. He will get hurt or buzzed or clipped and he'll feel it. Now he won't go down, but he does not have a Max Holloway. You just can't kill me kind of chin. And so the older he gets, the more shots you take, the more it goes down. What his career was not defined by being invulnerable. his career has been defined by how smart he is at building bespoke game plans for opponents.

His ability to adapt mid-fight is like among the best of all time, if not the best, as a mid-fight adjuster and just like defensive responsibility and not getting hit with those shots in the first place. Getting hit with them more now. You know, the first Diego Lopez fight, Diego jacked him a couple of times. There was a real world where Diego could have won that.

But Diego is pretty limited. I do think, I'm sorry, I have loved. well, not as dynamic as Diego Lopez, certainly, is a little bit less limited. And we've yet to see him. I can't shake the feeling that there's a very real, it just feels like a classic MMA gods joke that the entire conversation has been Mavseurav has been.

Mavsorav hasn't finished anybody. And then this would be his finish in the UFC. It would be knocking out Alexander Bolkanovsky. I can't shake that. And so you already know from earlier, I'm locked into the gimmick. I've got an Alexander Volk Polk-Palovsky and Volkov. Yeah, pair the two of them together, and it's plus 225, I think, is the price on that.

But what I'm also into is taking a very slight splash on Evluev by finish. It's plus 500. Would it all be surprised if this fails? But it's just something in me is like, man, if Evolov just like feints a takedown and comes up with an upper cut and Volk. The takedown draw, like the takedown shift has Volk go for a sprawl and walks right into the upper cut. And this is just like the most outrageous finish that Evelov could put together.

It just feels like something the MMA gods would want to happen here. So I don't know. I love the matchup. If you, again, if you told me this was Volk Prime, I'm taking Volk Prime. This is not being Volt Prime and being Evalov's Prime and. There are some other statistics people have mentioned to me this week that I haven't verified, so I don't want to, it's possible that these are wrong, but somebody in the feet on my fighting told me,

hey, in fights where the fighter had to win 10 fights, two or nine plus fights to get a title shot, they are, they are, they always win the belt, you know, it's like Lauren Murphy,

not sorry, not Lauren Murphy, Leon Edwards, uh, you know, Balamahad, they took so long to get there. They, when they finally actually got the,

opportunity, they won the belt. And Mobsar, there's a history of that, right? Like, even outside of the sort of concrete data point, just the sort of like, yeah, man, when there are guys who win that much and are that good and they finally get a shot at the belt, they tend to convert. And a young, talented guy like Mobsar, or younger, not young, younger talented guy like Mopsar, I will have home field advantage. This would be probably like the second or third best.

win of Alexander Volkovsky's career if he gets it will be genuinely legacy defining and uh that's why i like the fight because one way or another i don't think volk has anything to lose i think i think volkhovsky loses it shouldn't diminish his accomplishments in any regard but they both have a lot to gain here and uh i am very very excited to watch it unfold i will pick i mean i'm i'm picking Volkanowski because the Alexander Volkov parlay or yeah Alexander Volk parlay but I just love the fight I also just for clarity I strongly considered taking the over in this fight as well for a five-leg start to the climb and then ultimately was like nope shouldn't do that because again just something something in the air the spirits of of the realm are telling me

what if this is the time officer who just like comes out and punches him in the head well false It would be sad and funny and very MMA. So I passed on the over here and just taking Evel by finish at a very small splash and in the Alginerval Pallet. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is it for UFC 333. Card of the fall for sure. I love this card. And we'll get some more because we're going back to MSG.

There are other good cards, but great card. And it needs to tide you over because next week we return to the meta apex for you. UFC fight night or usually Vegas 123. Hanata McConnell, Tom Nolan. The main event I'm actually interested in the rest of that card. I don't know that we're going to be super pumped about watching it, but

that's the future us because current us gets to celebrate UFC 333 just one of my favorite cards. I'm not saying it's one of the best. One of my favorite cards of the year. I look forward to watching it. And you can watch it with us in the SB Nation app

download it so we can be live chatting, game chatting all Saturday, preview show, post show, a watch party. Make sure you tune in for that with me and Mike Heck. All the fix-ins for UFC 333. We're going to have some fun this weekend. Thanks for tuning in. Love you all. All right, Mike Heck here from MMA Fighting.

And my good friend Jed Michoud is here with me as well because Jed, the day has finally arrived. It's App Day, the all-new SB Nation app. It's live now. It's live, Jed. It's alive. Yeah, man. I'm really excited.

And it's awesome, man. Combat sports, like all sports, but combat sports fan especially, you guys are going to have your voices heard like never before within SB Nation. MMA boxing, not me, but you pro wrestling, Mike. It's it is a community-based app. It's all about community with the new SB Nation app. It's so easy to use. And it can keep, obviously, combat sports fans connected to their favorite teams in all of sports too across the board.

So I can keep up with the Red Sox, the Celtics, the Patriots, and the Bruins. all on my phone and it's so simple to use. Yeah, like you mentioned those teams, but there's so much more because I don't care about Boston sports, Mike, but I get to follow the NFL, all the other sport, F1, the various sports that I care about

outside of combat sports, and then there's the live experience because to me that's one of the coolest things. You can chat with us during fight cards every Saturday, and you can chat with other people in the communities as big events are happening. So it's a really good time. So ladies and gentlemen, come fight with us over on the all-new SB Nation app.

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