MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Alexander Volkanovski & Brandon Moreno Hold Onto Their Belts At UFC 290?

Episode Date: July 5, 2023

After what feels like an eternity of mediocrity, the UFC is finally back in a big way with UFC 290. As always, the UFC does it big on International Fight Week and so the No Bets Barred boys are here to do the same, breaking down all the fights for this weekend. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick the show off by talking about how excited they are for UFC 290, and even throw in a little conversation about Sean Strickland. Then it's right into 290 talk with Conner and Jed disagreeing on the top three fights! Lots of dissension in the ranks this week, but there's one thing everyone can agree on, Alexander Volkanovski, Yair Rodriguez, Brandon Moreno, and Alexandre Pantoja are going to put on one (Mike) Heck of a show on Saturday. Tune in for Episode 52 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. What is going on, y'all?

We are back another edition of No Betts Barred this time. UFC 290, it is International Fight Week. We return to the T-Mobile Arena in Lowe. Las Vegas, Nevada, Nevada, tomato, tomato, Jed, how we feeling? You know, we were talking about it just a moment ago, off here, Connor. I am excited. We finally, finally have a good fight card in front of us. I don't know if you get it as much as I do because I think I'm a much more negative person,

certainly in the public MMA space than you are, Connor. I've been cashing in the teeth for a lot of this year because I've been down on the cards. And I don't take back a single thing I've said, by the way, these cards have been trash by and large. And it's okay. The thing I say all the time, it's okay to be a fan and support the sport, but also to want more, to hope for more. This, Connor Birx, is more. This is the kind of stuff that I say, oh my God, I cannot wait for Saturday to get.

here not well when Saturday comes I guess I'll be I am excited about fight week it's weird that it's a short one because of the holiday but man I am ready for this one I'm a thousand percent with you man I mean these these marks that come at you when you say

any card is a bad card there will be people there will be people out there Jed defending next week's card the Holly home Myra Buena Silva is that who she's fighting it's a Bannemoy title fight on ESPN Plus

So, oh. I mean, that is, that, that card next week is one of the worst cards I've ever laid eyes on. And I think that's like the fourth or fifth time I've said that this year. Not, and don't get it mistaken. There have been great fights. Yeah. Of recent. But I'm talking about a card where I am very, very excited.

Now, I have to say, it's a bummer that we lost, Jack Della, Sean Brady. That's a bummer that we lost Trayshon Gore from the bone nickel fight. Yeah, that doesn't matter to me. I mean, it's going to be the same result, but you kind of want to, him to be taking these steps. This is another contender series fight. Actually, didn't he lose on, no, no, no, no. He did not fight on Contender Series.

I'm mistaken. The Booneickle one doesn't matter to me because it's all the same. But yeah, Jack Deloshaun Brady, that was, that's a huge a mess. That was going to be such a sick fight. Instead, he gets he gets Josiah Harrell a 5-7 lightweight with a 67-inch reach.

But we'll get into that later on. I mean, I'm these like, I think we said it last week. It's almost like a tale of two cards. It's like the last like eight fights are just tremendous. And I mean, the main card, you could even start with the with the featured prelim. Like the Robbie Lawler, Nico Price is just going to be a banger, especially in Robbie Lawler's last fight. Bo Nickel, we get to see him.

Hopefully evolve though now with the new opponent, I don't know. And then Dan Hooker, Jalen Turner, Robert Whitaker, DDP, Brandon Moreno, Alejandro Pantoja for the Flyway Championship, Alexander Volcanowski, Yeya Rodriguez, for the Featherweight Championship. I'm very excited for this card. I mean, this is the one we've been waiting for, man. International Fight Week, they always do it big. I will say, you know, probably compared to years past International Fight Week,

this is lacking a little bit of that real extra juice, that, you know, the hardcore casual fans, people who don't know anything are tuning in for, but for me. It's a very good pay-per-view card. Paper view is sensational. The main card's unbelievable. I think the regular prelim set,

all four of those fights, I'm in love with them. I get that the Jack Della, you know, that could have been a little better, but, you know, that's the fight game. That's how it goes.

Plus, we get, you know, the early prelims, look, your mileage is going to vary. That's just the amuse, boosh. That just starts warming up the end. and as we start building and cooking. It can be 6 o'clock, summer evening.

You know, you're just having dinner. You got the fights on in the background. As you're crescendoing into the pay-per-view card, as you're crescendoing into a beautiful evening at home, wherever you may be at a bar, at a friend's house, into the title fights, into Robert Whitaker, DDP. It's going to be a fantastic night. I'm very much looking forward to it.

Let's go back to last week. Sean Strickland pretty much did what he wanted, when he wanted to to abys magamatov it it felt like that was just too much too soon that second round i was just like this is over like this is done he's putting together like eight punch combos and landing everything and like it's it's just a wrap yeah it um it was such a cratering i was doing the lot block from my find dot concrete website grew up so and i was writing in it i was like uh for the whole first round. I mean, Abis is just swinging everything he has into every punch. And he's not really landing most of them. And I don't know if he can keep this up. But he like, he didn't actually

look that bad. And at the very end of the round, I was like, he might be slowing down a little. He's still swinging really hard, but he's just swinging fewer punches. And he just knows that, like right off a cliff from that. And then I also, I love the, you know, we got the corner work Chris Curtis and company saying, hey, we think we've seen something double up that. jab and then fire the right hand behind it strickland comes out immediately does it and abys is functionally done so good performance from sean strickland uh but you know what connor i was i was going to be humble great performance from me from your boy i was going to ask we both tried a new a new little process here uh something called not betting on every single fight uh and word on the

street is it it was a successful venture for it perfect weekend connor that's got Granted, we had four bets down. We did not have a big exposure, but that's just how it goes. You go before you hit them. You said you only have four bets down. What I hear is zero losers. Zero losers. Four bets down.

I had three losers. Oh, yeah, I saw that. I missed MMA hour last week, so I saw the parley pals. Tough, tough scenes, man. Yes, yeah. Yeah, I mean, actually, both of my picks would have been losers. Melissa Gato, split decision long. loss.

Yeah. Grom, finishing the third round. The Ram was such a heartbreaker because he was so winning. And then Elvis Brenner, tougher than a two dollars steak, man. I had him in another parlay, though. That would have lost as well,

Ishmael Bonfim. Regardless of me losing, I still like the less bets. I went a little crazy for an international fight week. I did six instead of five. But, yeah, it's also just less stressful. It's so much less stressful.

I was thinking that last week, because the only, like, I doubled up on the Romanov-Bla-Go-Evinov fight because I've got my heavyweight over and I took Romanov. And so that should have been stressful. And it was immediately the least stressful thing I've ever done. I was like, okay, this is clearly going to last 15 minutes, much less seven and a half. And Rojov's very much going to win. And then after that, it was, you know, Grant Dawson, Sean Strickland, they were both stressed.

Like, it was the easiest week of betting of my life. in retrospect that Sean Strathland bet was just like the best thing ever. Oh, yeah. The price was unbelievable. And that's how it's like, that's why it was such a good week. I look back and I'm like, I really, I didn't have to think about any of these. And I got just a brilliant price for all. Grant Dawson plus 100 should have been minus 350.

Like, just it's a great week, really happy with it. And I decided to follow that up, Connor, by doing the exact. opposite and taking a bunch of bets on a bunch of underdogs like a big stupid idiot this week. But we're going to have some fun. I'm excited to hear what they are. I'm very excited to hear what they are. So let's dive in. UFC 290 main event, international fight week, team mobile arena, featherweight world title.

Alex Volcanowski taking on Yaira Rodriguez. Right now feels like there's a little bit of money coming in on Yaiyer. It feels like there's some confidence surrounding the. interim champ. You can get Alex Volkovsky for minus 380, Yaiy Rodriguez, plus 290. You know where I stand on this fight. You know what side I'm going to take. I mean, it's fairly obvious. I'm going to ride with my guy, Volk. You are on the opposite side. I am. You are on Yaiyar. We are going to be budding heads on this one. Give me the thought process here. Give me the explanation of why we're going with Yai Yer. Absolutely. Well, all right, let's just start here.

I don't like Alexander Volkinovokovsky. I mean, yes. That's the number one. I do have in my notes, other than you being biased against Alex Volcanoz. Absolutely. I am a hand-up. I'm going to tell you guys straight up, if you're looking for hard-hitting analysis, this is never the show to come to, but certainly not from me this week.

This will never be the show to come to. This is for me this week not happening. I've got a lot of bets with my heart. of feelings and I can admit I don't particularly like Alexander Volcanovsky used to like him. He rubs me all sorts of the wrong way now and I would very much like to see him lose and Yaira Rodriguez I think is a guy you can do it

so I wouldn't be taking this bet just purely out of spite there are a couple of factors here for me I won't be at all surprised if folk wins folk is one of the very best fighters that has ever stepped foot in the cage I'm willing to give the man his due in that regard but one of the biggest things for me, 35. Like he's about to be 35 in a couple of months. That he is currently the second oldest champion at any weight class less than welterweight.

The only other guy who was older than him, Davidson Figurato, when he dropped the belt to Moreno this last time, was 35. So we're not talking by a matter of years. We're talking a matter of months that Volcanowski. If he beats the year, he will very likely end up being the oldest champion ever in UFC history beneath the welterweight level. It's tough. We talk about a lot. We talked about it a lot in previous fights.

When you hit that, you know, once you get over 33, 34, it's real tough sledding in the lighter weight classes, particularly when you've been a guy who's been at the top for a while. because fight, like we say this all the time. Fighters have so much more tape on you. They have much more ways to prepare for you. We can go back to the great failing of my year this year. Alexa Grasso over Valentina Shvchenko. Shevchenko is probably winning that fight, but she takes the spin kick.

Grasso jumps on the back. And afterwards, Grasso says, yeah, we knew she throws spinning kicks. We trained this exact maneuver for that exact sequence over and over again. And when it happened in the fight, I took advantage. There are just more opportunities for people to gun for you the long you are at the top. Volk's had a long run at the top.

I think Ja'eer has the tools also to make this a tough fight for him. I think Volk's best path forward is to mostly take Gai'er down. Yai'er largely is okay getting taken down. He plays from the back. He doesn't super try to stand up and he's not a great defensive wrestler. I mean, he'll gum with elbows and action, but I think if Volk can repeatedly get takedowns, it's really good for him. But on the feet, yeah, he's got that length.

He's got that wicked, like out of nowhere power, all sorts of crazy, creative strikes, the upward back elbow, the kicks. The kicks are going to be huge. Islam had a lot of success kicking with Volk, the body work, huge. I think he can make things really tough on Volk on the feet. And if Volk is slowing down, you know, if he's maybe hitting that prime, the end of his prime, Ye'eer is only getting better.

Every time we see him out there, it is just a leveling up. And so I think he's got a really good shot to actually pull this off, aside from my personal feelings of wanting him to do this. So I'm riding with the Mexican wave. I am riding with El Pantera.

I am riding with Yeir Rodriguez. My only... I like the point that you made about how much tape there is on the top tier guys. I mean, we've seen it proven time and time again, you know, it definitely does matter. The only thing I will say about the age is that we haven't really seen any signs of Volk like slowing down.

We haven't seen the age catching up to him. I mean, he fought five months ago against the best 155 in the world and took him to, you know, a competitive decision. I don't think the age is going to matter here. Yair is crazy. I mean, he is wild. He does seem to be leveling up, though, I will say. Like, his run has been kind of weird.

And I think that's why I'm not, like, fully sold in my head on him. Like, obviously, he looked great against Josh Emmett. But then the fight before that, the Ortega fight was very weird. I was there in person. You know, you can say that, like, he was the reason Ortega got injured. And that's why, you know, he won the fight. He lost the max, where I do agree with you, Volcanovsky. I think he can get takedowns.

Max was getting takedowns in that fight. He beats Jeremy Stevens. After a no contest, another kind of weird result. The Butzer beater to Korean zombie. Also a weird result. And then a loss to Frankie Edgar. Like, it's like, I'm not saying he's not incredibly skilled and very good and undeserving of this. I'm just saying his run has been odd.

He has an undeniably weird run. I'm not. It's a weird run. Super weird run. But let me, one, let me have. add one more thing to the to the old thing because I agree he hasn't shown Volk hasn't shown anything uh in that regard but and this is real armchair psychologist so disregard I love it this is what I want to disregard but I think that there's

a reason that Volk has been pushing so hard to be super active this year to hey I want to get four fights and I think it's because he knows it's whatever my thoughts on Volk and the personality he now portrays he this man is no dumb This man is very, very smart. He has a brilliant mind for the fight game and understanding that. And I think that he can look at this rationally and be like, man, maybe I don't even feel like I'm dropping off, but Father time is undefeated. I do not have much time left. I need to get as many of these in as I can because when it comes, it can come quickly.

And at the lighter weight classes, you lose a step and you are gone. Like it is, you drop off one step and the sharks are going to swallow you up. And so I think that he even recognized it. And that's why he's been like, I want to fight four times this year. I want to get in as much as I can because he could easily just be like, I just fight two times, tour the world, be famous. It's not what he's trying to do. I think he's trying to make a last good run here.

And so that's my point on that. On the Yai-year thing, absolutely agree. He has had a super weird career. my largest feeling is though that like in any of these fights weird as they are or not he is just super dangerous at all points in time and i've always thought that that's the way you're going to beat wolkenovsky full credit to max i'll be one of the best fighters of all time i always i have very consistently said from before the first matchup they had when i picked folk i think volk is just a really horrific style matchup for max because max does not have one hit or quitter power Max is not a guy who is going to end you violently in an instant. He is going to attratively build up damage over time. And I just don't think that that's a style that really works against Volknovsky unless you have something like Islamakov, right?

Like some clear ace in the hole, some major physical advantage over Volk. Yair is not going to win a point fighting contest probably. But at any point in time, any of those strikes can put Volk in. a world of hurt. And it's, I make the analogy to blackjack all the time. You play long enough at the same stakes, the house has the edge. The house wins. Volkovsky's the house.

But if you bet big when you have the advantage, you win. And that's what Yaya can do with that sort of violent kicking offense of his. And so that's why I'm on him. Yeah, I agree. I think another thing to say, though, Volk, he got finished once against, who is the, the legend that it's going to be sitting in a bar this weekend that's like, Yep, I beat that man. I beat that man.

Corey Nelson. Our guy. I mean. I got Corey Nelson. What was that a middleweight fight? I believe it was a welterweight fight. Welterweight. Wellterweight.

Shout out to Corey Nelson. Yeah. And I kind of agree with you. I feel like if there's going to be a finish here, it's going to be Yair. I mean, maybe Volk finishes him, but I just, I doubt it. I feel like if Volk wins, it's going to be kind of similar to the way that Max Holloway won, just outvaluing him, getting takedowns, and just working. I feel like I'm seeing a lot of people saying that this fight isn't going to go to a decision.

I looked at Volk by decision plus 125. I was hoping for like maybe a touch more juice. But that's kind of a tempting line. If I was going to be betting Volk, I think I'd be betting him instead, like that line instead of a parlay. Yeah, I parlayed him up minus 425. You can get better prices out there at the time. You didn't beat the line. That's where.

It did not be the line. It does happen. And I parlayed him up with Whitaker and Bo Nickel. Bo Nickel obviously fell off. So now I'm just sitting with an Aussie, Ossie, Aussie Parlay. So yeah, it was always Volk. Everyone knew that's who I was going with. There was no doubt.

Yeah. Look, you got to have your guys, and I get it. We're going to talk about my guy in this very next fight. So I wish you the best. I don't because I desperately want. Alexander Volkanowski to lose. It's going to be a great fight. I'm looking forward to it.

Yeah, you're with the custom belt is sick. Dude, I feel, I felt so much better about the bat. And after I saw that, that belt is insane. It is insane. Any feelings on it being in an interim belt? Don't care. It's so much better than any UFC title that has ever existed. All right.

Here's my argument. I would never want that as the permanent belt. I like black and gold. No, but that's unique. No, but that's unique. to him. It's the, you know, the colors. And I think he just changed the game, though. Like, if I'm a

champion, if I am a UFC champion moving forward and I see, oh shit, look at it like, that dude got a custom championship belt. I am immediately tricking out my title belt, like, immediately taking to someone like, what are my colors? Well, you know,

if I have a strong national presence or whatever it is that makes me unique to me, I am immediately customizing my belt. Yair has changed the game. And you know, it's changed the game. with that one. So I'm actually, I can't say this for certain.

I don't know if it was Yair. I saw a clip of... I thought it was Yair. I saw a clip of Dana White doing like sneaker shopping and a guy like pimped out a pair of Air Force Ons for Dana White. And then he reached out to Dana White and wanted to make custom belts for the Mexican champions. And Dana White agreed and like hooked up Yair with it. Well, if that's the case, then I'm going to say,

something I almost never say. Well done UFC. I saw this clip. I mean, the clip of Dana is saying it. And then I saw pictures on the back and it was like the artist was imprinted on it. But it is odd that we haven't seen like Brandon Moreno and Alex, Alexa Grasso posting pictures with theirs. It's definitely very odd, particularly if the UFC did this for him and this is on a fight week where Brandon Moreno is also about to be fighting. that would be super weird

but if so congratulations to UFC that is actually like really good fight promotion I love the creativity I love everything about that if this is just a Yai'ir thing you have in my mind changed the game

no champion moving forward from this point in time should ever just accept the regular belt that would be ridiculous so so all right so here's what it's saying it was gifted to him by his management team by an artist duo

Jacobo and Maria Angelis and Dana White revealed that Mexican champions Rodriguez as well as Flyweight gold holder Brandon Moreno who co-headlines UFC 2-9 this weekend and Flyweight Queen Alexa Grasso are also slated to receive their own one-of-a-kind custom-made UFC championship belts so I wonder if theirs are going to look

slightly different than Yair's as well. I don't know. All right, so listen, I'm just going to go ahead and discredit. I'm going to go ahead and discredit your boy, Yair. He didn't do anything. He just got it put into his lap. I don't care if he did anything or not. He's the guy carrying the standard.

It's fine. But this is now really interesting, because if this is sort of a UFC co-opted thing, it's going to happen, is Pantosha fighting for Moreno's custom belt, or is he fighting for a regular belt to Morano? It's super weird.

We're going to find out on Saturday. But the important point is I'm looking at this photo again. I love this belt so much. It's the best thing I've seen with a UFC brand on it since the hot dog brander. It's unbelievable. Do more of this. Yeah, it's amazing. I hope we get to like see it in person.

The colors are fantastic. They pop off and like it doesn't look tacky or anything. So shout out to the I. year. Shout out to whoever got that done. Yeah. I had something I was going to say about belts and now I can't remember. Oh, yes.

It would be really cool if the BMF look like this? Yes, literally, I was going to say, I can't wait for Dustin Porre to win and then get it like Bayou themed. The BMF belt. That's going to be, that's going to be fantastic. All right, let's keep it rolling. Co-main event, fly weight. A New Orleans BMF belt would be sick. Give it to me in purple and yellow.

Give me something really sick. Hose me down. Getting too excited to thinking about that one. I mean, I can't wait. I mean, this is cool that we have two title fights on this pay-per-view, but the real one happens at the end of the month for the B and F. Any men, hundreds of people have had gold wrapped around their waist. It's only been one with silver.

I mean, and now there's only one with yellow and green and blue. and all sorts of colors. Well, we'll see. We'll see what Brandon Moreno gets. Let's keep it rolling, though. To Brandon Moreno's fight, flyway title, he is taking on Alejandro, Pantosia. This will be the third time they will have fought in an octagon right now. Brennan Moreno minus 190.

Pantosia coming back plus 160. You foreshadowed your guy. Who is your guy in this matchup? Boating for flight 246 to Toronto is the last. late 50 minutes. Ugh, what? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea.

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So plush. Our buyers have got you covered. Marshalls. We get the deals. You gift the good stuff. I've been a Brandon Moreno guy for a long time. And I, this is a hard one for me, Connor, because I actually looking at this line, I think that there might just straight up be some value on Pantosia at this particular price.

Feels a little high for Moreno, particularly given two losses to pants already. Also, I like should be betting Pantosia here because I have a Moreno 10, 2023 as champion ticket at plus 165. So I could just place a little hedger right here. Just a quick little hedge on pants and probably be in a very good position to make sure I'm cashing out on Britain Moreno this year. But that's just not who I am. It's not what I'm about. It's not the life I choose to lead. I've been a big Brandon Moreno supporter for a long time since he returned to the UFC functionally.

I felt very good about his chances against Davidson Figurado earlier this year. was paid off for that. I think that this kid is just, I think he's just the best flyweight in the world. He is still young. You know, he's not even 30 yet. And every time out we're seeing evolutions to his game, improvements.

I mean, he and Figaro fought four times, and then that fourth one, Figgy almost shouldn't have even been in the cage. It felt like Moreno didn't, like, run through him, but he put it to, him pretty firmly. And you know, you're watching Kai Kare-France, your boy, who my God, has been on this great,

a tremendous assent and was even looking very good against Moreno, and then the body kick comes. And we're seeing him just sharpened tools into this dynamic finishing force, this guy who is incredibly durable. I mean, when you fought Davidson Figurato for like an hour or however long they've shared a cage, and have never been stopped.

Like, you are incredibly durable force. And I think that, and that to me is one of the biggest things here. I know Pantosia does have the two dubs over him, but Moreno is proven to be incredibly difficult to finish at this point in time. And a lot of Pantosia's incredible run right now has just been him running through competition. Brandon Rivalal, Alex Perez, Matt Chanel, trying to remember who else was on that list. He didn't finish Minnell cop, but, you know, You know, just getting those, I don't think those opportunities exist.

So he is going to have to win, you know, 15 of 25 minutes against Brandon Marino. And I think this can be a really competitive fight. I think the scrambles are going to be unbelievable. But I largely think that Brandon Moreno is going to be defensively capable enough in the scramble game to not give up his back, not give up super dominant position against Pantosia. And on the feet, I think he's bigger. I think he's a little bit faster. I think he is just the more dangerous striker.

I'm looking for this to be a 25-minute war. And so I am taking Brandon Moreno by decision at plus 150. I like that. I like that. A little pimp out there. Man, who would have thought on my bingo card? Me using the term pimp twice in terms of Brandon Marino. Would not have guessed that.

That might be the first time I've ever used it in the podcast history. We'll go ahead and tap out at two. We'll check the take. We'll check the tape. We'll see if that, in fact, the first two times. Go ahead and tap out of two there. Yeah, I mean, most of what you said, I kind of agree. Now, here's the thing.

You talk about your Brandon Moreno Future Ticket. I'm sitting on a Brandon Moreno plus 350 to be champion at 20203 ticket. And I am also sitting on an Alejandro Pantosia to be champion at the end of 2023 ticket plus 400. So technically these are both my guys. I mean, if I'm a smart man, I sit back. I enjoy the show and, you know, I just kick my feet up. But what you said at the beginning is what got me.

The line is why I'm so tempted. So in the main and the co-main, we are actually going to be budding heads. I am going to take Alejandro Pantosia. You spoke about Brandon Moreno's durability. Pantosia. Never been finished. 30 fights. You said it.

Never been finished. I think both these guys are incredibly durable. and I think as good as Brandon Moreno is, as many improvements as he made. I'm not even going to go to the first two fights. I know it's been five years since the last one, and Brennan Moreno is an entirely different fighter. I think Pantosia definitely has the ability to make this a very close competitive fight. Yes, I do believe Brandon Moreno is the better striker here, but in terms of danger,

in terms of finishing upside, I think Pantosia is the fighter with that. And I know Brandon Moreno is tough as a $2 stake to finish. But I think he's going to have his moments. And I think it's going to be close. And I do think it's going to go to a decision. And, you know, if it's contested like we saw with the Davis and Figuerado fights, I'm happy to be holding a plus 175 ticket on Alejandro Panthosia. Like I said at the top, I think it's a good bet.

The value, just looking at it, I do not think Brino should be straight up this high that he's currently at. and talking about a Brandon Moreno guy. Love the guy. So can't knock you for the bet at all. I think it's a good bet. I haven't done it yet, but I mean, it just is right up my alley and just is everything I ever could have wanted. Over one and a half feels like a solid parlay piece.

Oh, over one and a half is just a terrific parlay piece. I'm going to have minus 500, minus 525. We may have used that in a, I may have used the Seaberg special in this one. All right. I'm going to go ahead and jot that down because I'm looking to cook up like a nasty, nasty chalk dumpster parlay, like auto loser type type deal here. So we're going to, we're going to start it off Moreno Pancogra. The over one and a half in Volk Rodriguez is also pretty good. I like that.

I like that. I think that's likely going to happen. But yeah, you're such like a crazy man. and I've had nights ruined on taking over one and a half so Brian would take a fight because of that so just in case right now I'm talking like these are things that I feel very very confident in and

this one going over one and a half I I feel confident I feel extremely confident in this as well so I support everything you're saying at this moment of time all right let's keep it rolling down to the featured bout a middleweight fight taking place between Robert Whitaker and Drichis

Duplase. Right now Robert Whitaker, the Reaper, minus 400, a DDP comeback plus 300, over under set of two and a half under minus 145. Yeah, so like I just think Whitaker is just way too technical for this dude. I feel like that is just kind of

the name of the game here. If you just go back and watch his fight, It's like that, especially the Marvin Vittory one. I guess it does give me kind of pause, like a little bit of pause because Armaventory just got masterclassed by Jared Canaanere. But, yeah, I just, I just think he is just, he's too skilled. He's too technical, like he's too precise. I think he's going to be too defensively sound here for DDP's crazy, crazy shit.

He's like 13 and 2 over the last nine years. The only person he's lost to was Israelada. The reigning defending UFC middleweight champion of the world. And I say all that. And then I'm also just like, DDP just like somehow keeps getting it done. Like he just makes these fights so chaotic. Like he keeps pulling it off. I guess another upside DDP has.

He does have serious finishing capability. I mean, all of his fights. I think all of his wins, except for maybe one, have come by finish. at the end of the day I'm going with Woodacre I love this we are budding heads Let's go

Let's go I love I listen I actually like DDP And I've supported DDP In almost every one of his UFC fights Like bet on him And I have almost always taken

The fight doesn't go to a decision And he's cashed like Like seven of eight Of those bets that I've That I've taken on him I also like that he's from South Africa Like I think that's cool. I think that's unique. Him and Cameron

Simon like kind of being this South African duo that like exclusively fight on cards together. I think it's cool. Like I really do enjoy it. This man gets an unbelievable amount of hate online and I'm

not even talking about for like things like this whole like weird drama dilemma surrounding like things he said about becoming an African champion. I'm talking about the way he fights. People are like this guy is such an idiot, he has no skills. He just keeps falling his way into

top five fights. It's like, if he goes out there and beats Robert Whitaker, this dude is guaranteed a title shot. Guaranteed. Yep. It's by far the funniest thing that can happen. It'll be so funny. Undeniably, the

funniest thing that can happen in MMA this month is if Drick is too pussy, this guy who is widely reviled by like the broader MMA online populace. I like him. dude. I like him. Yeah, but like you said, so many people just hate him. It's so far.

For the way he fights, his everything about him. And Robert Whitaker is the darling of MMO. Everybody loves Bobby Knuckles. And undeniably, the funniest possible outcome is in this fight between the darling and the villain, and this fight between a guy that given no chance to win. Nobody really thinks DDP can do anything here. That's why I love this bet for you. They're like, I, I just have to applaud and respect that you're thinking the

funniest thing. Like, very realistically, probably should. Like, Whitaker at only minus 400 is probably some value. But I want to manifest the world I want to live in, Connor. I've been saying this for weeks on various programs. DDP shouldn't be fighting Robert Whitaker. DDP should be fighting Israel-DISNia for the middleweight championship of the world. Like that, this was a no-brainer from the moment Izzy beat Pereira and Pereira said,

I'm going up to lay a heavyweight. This was a no-brainer matchup for me. And got a lot of pushback and as time has gone on, everyone sort of realized like, man, this is this kind of a dumb fight because when Whitaker wins, it's really taking away this sort of inherent heat we have. And so I am going to manifest it because all due respect to Bobby Knuckles. I like Bobby Knuckles in general. you had your day in the sun you were champion I don't need to see you fight Israel dissonia again

I'm good without seeing that I very much want to watch Drichus 2 plus C fight Izzy I very much want this to be the rivalry and I just want to manifest this and so I'm going to choose to believe in DDP I got three more points to make on this the first one

DDP got a nose job Connor got a nose job What is what is this? We've unlocked 8%? We're officially passed 8% oxygen. I say, yeah. I mean, think of how chaotic and insane he was fighting when he couldn't breathe. Now he's got clean, clean airways, clean pathways.

He is going to be, it's like in the Fast and the Furious when you put the Noss into the engine. It just turbocharges it. That's him. He can get all this extra oxygen means even more output. So don't sleep on the nose job being a major factor here. And the actual way I'm selling myself on this, the key thing I'm saying here, this is three rounds. This were a five-round fight, it would be pretty close to me to a hundred percent likelihood

that Robert Whitaker wins this fight. But three rounds is so short that there is a world where Drikas comes out here and he's the beats this thing. and he just pushes the pedal to the floor for 10 minutes and red lines it. And that's enough to just sneak two rounds away from Bobby Knuckles. And then he's just got to survive the last one to get a 29, 28 decision and move on to face Israel-Disnia in the biggest fight of the year. I do think that that is actually a viable path forward for him. So with that in mind, I'm taking DDP.

I am also going to throw a little quarter unit sprinkle on DDP by decision at plus 1,100. Because that number seems quite large to me. I don't know. 18 of 19 wins are by finish. Robert Whitaker just feels like. Whitaker is wildly durable. All right, I'll give you that. Here's how I think it's going to go.

Like I think DDP is going to have some moments in the first round. I guess I'm not accounting enough for the unclogged nostril, the new man. It just, I can just see it in like the second round. Like DDP is just like completely like taking big, big breasts and like Whitaker is just like landed body kicks doing his little combo where he does punch, punch head kick combo deal. Like, uh, and it, he's just like is just pouring it on. And then DDP goes for the take. down where he just kind of like falls and like his face is now on the octagon it's i mean it's

going to be an entertaining fight i know that i know that i know that much of the ddp fight is wildly insane why does dude get so much hate like he fights like a circus character it's fantastic i'm just saying you said you can see that can you also just see can you just see it in your mind's eye ddp getting a ddp's win then coming on me like i told you guys now i can breathe Izzy, you're fucked. Oh, that'd be so great. I can see it laying out before me. So this is a dumb bet, but I'm taking it,

and I'm taking the buy decision prop, because it's plus 1100, and I feel like there's a shot. Sign me up. Sign me up. I mean, if I'm going to lose my parlay, I pray that it's on, that it's on DDP and not on Yair year, because I want DDP to win so much more than I want Yaiir to. That's,

I just have to say Bravo again on the bed. Anybody backing DDP this week, putting their harder money on DDP, putting their money where their mouth is, I have respect for you. Let's keep it rolling. It's going to be, last thing. It's a bad bet because it's going to be the

sweatiest bet of all time. Because even if this man wins, every time he fights, it never looks like winning is a sure thing. Well, yeah. Yeah. I mean, go back and watch the second round of the Darren Till fight. Like things we're getting.

I was on DDP and I was on fight doesn't go to a decision. That's what's so great about him though. It looked like neither was going to cash and then out of nowhere both of them cash. He comes through for you because that's just that's the kind of guy he is. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Lightweight out. Another banger.

Dan Hooker. Jalen Turner. Right now, man, money pouring in on Jalen Turner minus 255 Dan Hooker plus 215. I feel like I can speak for the podcast when I say, like, we have been Jalen Turner guys for a while now. I mean, if I remember correctly, you were on him against Gamrod as well. I have always been high on him. And I actually think I'm higher on him now after the Gamrite fight. Dude took him totally total.

You're speaking my language. Split decision. Made it competitive as hell. Showed he can go 15 minutes. Showed he doesn't have to just get a quick finish and get out of there. Jalen Turner is my guy, man. Dan Hooker is also my guy, but with the career trajectories,

everything that's going on. I took Jalen Turner weeks ago. I've been on the tarantula. I knew I'd be on him. It's tarantula. I mean, just everything you said. Except for Dan Hooker's never been my guy. They don't hate him.

I like Dan Hooker. I just never had any real strong feelings about him, but I love Jailer. Turner. I think this man's going to fight for a title one day. I was on him against Gamrot learning lesson, but Dan Hooker cannot Matush Gamrot Jalen Turner. Like that's maybe he can get a takedown.

I'm not even sure he can. Certainly he's not going to repeatedly kind of go to that well. And on the feet, Jailen Turner is, uh, he's a problem, man. He's a problem for just about anybody. I've got Turner tied up in a poorly piece. I'm sort of interested in Turner inside the day. distance. I haven't played a bet on it, but you're looking at it, and I mean, Turner is, is an excellent finisher. And the hooker has been finished in like four of his last five losses,

some number like that. He's started his career pretty durable, but in the last little run, you know, Michael Chandler obviously gets to finish is Arnold Allen. So I think Poir, I think, is the only recent person to beat him who didn't finish him, which is super weird to think about now but I think given how good a finisher Turner is Turner inside the distance which I think is like minus 140 in some spots right now

also feels like a pretty viable play but for now I just have him as one part of a parley I dig it only thing that worries me you know Dan Hooker he does really only lose to the best of the best do we worry about blonde hooker

I don't know I honestly think it might be a negative more than it is a positive. I do not. And I don't worry about the first thing you said because I think Jalen Turner is in the best of the best. I love it. I think this guy's top shelf. Can we also briefly talk about with the hooker thing?

Why is this UFC Australia? Why is UFC Australia happening on a national fight week and not in September when they're going to Australia? Yeah. Wow. I mean, I didn't think about how close we are to UFC Sydney. Yeah, that is idiotic when you think about it. I was going to...

There's so many things. They're like six Aussies on this car. It feels like when a couple fights, they're all like, yeah, I'll catch the fly with you. And like they all just come over and fight too. I don't know. Maybe they're just anchoring Sydney around Izzy. I mean, I guess, but like it feels like it would have made more sense to me to anchor international fight week around Izzy. And then do all of these in Sydney.

Do all of these like let all of these other fights happen in September. I bet they, I bet they get a tie on, on two. 93. Oh, I'm I'm trying to I'm trying to think how they build that. Izzy will be main event.

Probably Ty will be co-main. Maybe they'll throw, nah, they probably won't do two title fives. I don't know. We can save that. That's not until September. Yeah,

hooker with the back tat, hooker with the shin tattoos, hooker with the blonde hair. I mean, very transformative for all. I don't, I wouldn't like it personally if I'm a Dan Hooker guy

It feels, there's a lot. It's a lot going on. Yeah, you know, he's getting older. It feels like, you know, Kevin Lee with the Kevin Lee hair. It feels like you're just trying to find something that's not there anymore. Yeah. Yeah, the blonde hair. Yeah, I don't know about the blonde hair.

All right. Let's keep it rolling. Last fight on the main card, middle weight out. Bo Nickel taking on newcomer, debutante, Valentin Woodburn. Not available yet on Draft King's Sportsbook. I don't believe it is. Incorrect. It's up right now.

Just dropped within the last five minutes. Minest, $2,400, Vowlwoodburn. and coming back plus 1,200. Let me get deep into the X and O's here. Let me break this down. Let me tell you that Bo Neckle is going to win in the first round. Well, I mean, you're really going out of the Olympics. Really breaking down the X's and O's really giving it to you there.

That's an aggressive assessment. I'm going to agree with you. Thank you. You know what I'm going to say is more than likely going to be by submission. too. He's probably going to take him down and he's probably just going to choke him out in the first round. That's probably in the first like two minutes.

Probably. Probably. The only bet I would actually be interested in laying on this. If and when we do get like I want to know what under half around is. Yeah, because the under one and a half is available on some other books minus 400 for the one and a half. Yeah, they just cook this fight. Probably like minus two. They just cook this fight to the gills.

Don't bet on this is what Vegas is telling. If I could get like under two and a half minus 800, that can go in my chalk dumpster parlor. If I can get under two and a half minus 800, I will be reaching out to loan sharks in my area because it feels like the lock of all odds. I mean, well, like, here's the argument. It's minus, it's like minus 400.

Jack Della under one and a half is minus 285. Under two and a half is minus 600. So, like, we could get a minus 800 on that, on that two and a half. Minus 800 is the steel of the century. So, like, because, like, if Woodburn wins, it's going to be something weird and fluky. It's not going to be. I'm cooking up something nasty here. I'm thinking maybe under two and a half JDM, Moreno Pantojo over one and a half,

nickel, Woodburn, under two and a half. and a half probably will pay out somewhere in like the minus 180 range. Well, that's maybe. Let's see. Let's see. I mean, I'm looking at real bettable lines right now and it's minus

257 for the JDM under 2 and a half, Morano Pantoja over 1.5. Throw in Tatsuro, Tyra, like, let's say it's minus 1,000. That gets me to minus 189. I'll say, yeah, it's still going to get you down. If it's anything under minus 200, I will be taking that bet because those three picks,

It's a good vet. It's a good side of that. I mean, that's what they say about me. That guy's a good better. That's what people definitely say about me. All right. That's that. Let's keep it rolling.

Let's get onto the prelim card, Welterway, bow. Prelims. Prelims featured prelim. Robbie Lawler taken on Nico Price. It is the retirement fight for ruthless Robbie Lawler. And right now he's sitting at plus $220, Nico Price coming back,

minus 260. I got nothing here. I think it's going to be a banger. I think it's going to be a fun fight. But you tell me, what action we got down? Connor, you're going to sit there. You're going to look at me on this, the final fight of the illustrious Robbie Lollah's career. You're going to ask, am I going to support my guy?

All the things he's got, all the violence he has given us, the good times, the bets won. There's no way, no chance. that I will not be supporting Robbie Luller on the final voyage of the ruthless one. I am for sure taking him at plus 220 odds. Oh, beautiful. I mean, we have supported Robbie Loller together. It's been an entire year since last year's International Fight Week. He took on Brian Barberina.

It looked good. Looks good until he did not. Until he didn't. Yeah, man, I feel like Nico Price is a winnable fight. I don't think that's crazy. I think this is really good matchmaking, honestly, because I do think this is a winnable fight for him. Nico Price has, one, fight's going to be super violent.

It's going to be super awesome, however it goes down. But, you know, Price has slipped on the banana peel before. And Robbie Law, there's such a veteran so savvy. Like, yeah, there's a chance that Price just hits him and he can't really take, you know, take those shots anymore and he goes down. But there's also very much an opportunity for Robbie to just sort of kind of get by on veteran savvy and work around some things. or just punch him her hard in the face

because Nico Price is not immune to getting punched her hard in the face. So I love the matchup. I think it's a pretty good retirement fight for Robbie Lawler. If it is, assuming he does in fact retire at his MMA, but I will certainly be backing Ruthless Robbie because you got to. Yeah, I guess you have to.

I mean... I have to. I don't... Nobody else has to. He's two and six in his last eight. Nick Diaz, Calvich. I don't need to hear that negativity. One in five and his last six, yeah. I mean, Nico Price.

We'll see what happens. Outside of the Brian Barbarana, who is probably better than Nico Price, for being honest. I mean, the loss is Neil Magny, Colby Coventon to Ben Asking, Hafeil de Sanjos, a far cry from Nico Price. Shout out to N.P.

Let's keep it rolling. Next fight, Welterweight bout, my guy. See him on the shirt. We got a lot of guys. A lot of guys. A lot of guys on this card.

That's what happened when you see. stack of a favorite of your card jdm jack della madalana don giacamo getting in there taking on josiah harrell josiah harrow one of the two seven and oh debutante short notice uh right now jdm minus 950 harrell plus 600 i'm doing the same thing i did with the bone nickel fight we're going to get deep on this i'm going to get into the analytics and tell you why jack delam adelaelaan is going to knock this dude out in the first round i mean i'm so impressed by the analytical savvy that we're bringing to the table these days. He's better.

He's more prepared for the fight. Let me ask you this question because I like you. I, in fact, Jack Della is the second leg of the three-leg parlay. The third leg is the over one and a half Brandon Merle at Handa Pentosa and Jalen Turner. Those three payout minus 120, so I'm with you. Let me ask you this question. We don't have to get too deep into it, but... Please.

How, I mean, I think I know, how would you have felt about the Sean Brady matchup? had gotten that. How were you feeling for your boy? I would have been playing Jack Delameda, Madelina. I would have been feeling pretty good that he was going to be able to dominate the striking exchanges. The worry is what does the grappling look like? And I feel Sean Brady, especially after the Bilal fight, would have been, especially with

the weaknesses or not weaknesses, the question marks surrounding Jadim's grappling game and the things that Balaahmahad, the question marks are not there. And the certainty surrounding Jadim's striking game. Yes, everything that we've just said, he would have relied much more heavily on the grappling, and I don't know what that would have looked like for J.DM.

It could have ended up being Jadim stuff's a couple takedowns, knock Sean Brady out clean, or he's getting taken down and he's getting taken for a ride every round. And that's what it looks like. That's why I'm disappointed because it was such an intriguing fight. I think it was going to answer a lot of questions about both guys. How does Sean Brady, you know, undefeated bounce back from his first loss?

And how does JDM handle a really high-level grappler? And now we just kind of get another win on the record. Or we get a catastrophic L. Catastrophic L. I mean, those are the only two outcomes. It's just like, all right, he literally just has a number higher in the win column and nothing advances for his career or he has a career changing out. Yep. I'm in the same boat with you.

I'm super just disappointed. I love the Brady matchup. I thought it was perfect matchmaking as it does answer those questions. So we're about both guys because Sean Brady is not a finished product. I mean, still can make a run. He fell short against one of the best in the world, but still out there. So I love the matchup. And now here we are.

So it's a shame, but we will see. We will see how quickly Jack gets it done. And the good thing is, if he does get this fight, gets it under the belt, you know, goes as smoothly as we think. It means he can probably turn around and fight in the Australia card in a couple of months. So silver linings to the short notice. Because Sean Brady fight, he's probably not making the turn. around the fight in Sydney, but this one he comes out here, he gets another two-minute knockout. We can see him at 293, you know, easy does it.

Easy does it. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, straw weight bout. Yasmin, Howragi. You like that? I love that. Howragi. Nope.

Yasmin, Howragi. Had to listen to that one a few times over here. Might be the trickies. Look at you listening. I would not have come up with that name. So kudos to you. Howragi. versus Denise Gomez.

Right now, Howard Gee, big time favorite, minus 410 Gomez coming back plus 310. Yeah, I mean, this is an interesting fight. Like young prospects within the Strawway Division, I think it's 24 versus 23 years old, undefeated for Yasmin. To be honest, I think both these girls are dogs. I think it's going to be a pretty sick fight.

I mean, Yasmin has super crisp boxing. She's got power. showed that she can bounce back from getting knocked down last fight. Yeah, I mean, I thought she looked good. I think it's exciting to have another Mexican prospect in there. With all that said, I think Denise Gomez is kind of a dog. I think she's kind of got a little fight in her in her own right. I think she's got a little bit of power.

I think she's got decent striking. She's probably going to be the slower fighter in this matchup that could cost her here. But I mean, just with a fight, two young prospects and Yasmin is a minus 410 favorite. I took a very small, took a very small sprinkle on Denise Gomez. Oh, okay. I think I favor Yasmin to get the win. Just shown a little bit more for me.

I love the activity, love the volume she brings on the feet. but to your credit you know the way we've seen denisey gomez get beat a lot of takedowns giving up a lot of takedowns the long loop on me and that's not something we jasmine's going to do um i have no action on this fight i had already bet everything prior to this and thought you know maybe i can start tapering off a little bit uh because i'm i'm going to have some action on the next one so no action I wish you the best. Yeah, I got about 0.4 units down on Arnold Denise Gomez. Big big bet.

Not a big bet. Just a young women's MMA prospects think he could end up being close to the line. You're getting two young, young fighters not even close to fully developed and you're getting one of them plus 350 or whatever the number is. Like that's broadly speaking there's value there. All right, let's keep it rolling light heavyweight bout. It's the rematch. Jimmy Crute, Alonzo Menafield. We sell it five months ago.

Why are we rematching this? Now we get it again. Because it ended in a draw. I went back and watched that fight. A few things. Slobber knocker. It was, you look up Slobber knocker in the dictionary, and it shows a picture of Jimmy Crude and Alonzo Menefield.

Secondly, PTSD from having the under two and a half. Because that fight. Oh, that's right. you had that. Almost got stopped 20 times. It looked like Jimmy Kruh was going to get knocked out. And then it was like, oh, I think he's completely gassed out.

He's out on his feet. I think he's done now. Oh, and then he gets knocked down. Oh, no, now he's making a comeback. Now he's taking Menefields back. And then at one point, I think it was the end of the second round. He, like, had the choke locked up, but he couldn't finish it because time was running out. Like a million different ways that fight could have been finished.

So what I did after reliving that, I went right back to the well. Yes, that's my boy. I went right back to the well under two and a half, took it at minus two, ten. Someone's getting it done this time. They've sat on that fight for five months. They've rewatched it a million times over. They said, how did I not finish that thing? Both of them are coming for blood.

And this time we get our redemption. I'm not a man that's going to go down, not swinging. And we're going to get redemption here. Jimmy Crew, Alonzo Menofield. two and a half. It's the revenge bet. This is, this is for everything. The LeBron looking up meme, the gambling gods have given me an opportunity to redeem myself and I'm going to take it. This is the best bet you've ever made. I agree. I love this bet. We just saw the fight go to a decision five months ago. Why would I not take a fucking juice to the moon under?

I love this so much for you. I will be pulling for all my heart for this to hit for you because I think it's the best bet I've ever seen. I, on that previous one, I was, I backed a Lonza Minifield. I was like, you know, maybe Minifield's got something. Look real good his last two fights. Maybe he's finally putting it together, you know, and this is it. And Jimmy Crute, never a huge fan. But I like you, went back and watched the fight.

And it brought back the, it evoked all the emotions of being like, Minifield's going to win. Minifield's going to win. Oh, my God, he's losing in the stupidest way. He was so clearly going to win this fight. He had it. He had it. And now, oh, this is terrible.

And then begging for a draw to save me at the end. I've switched. I'm going Jimmy Crute. Wow. I'm taking him a minus 120. Minofield always dangerous early, certainly. And even showed some surprising durability and stuff in spots there. But the big factor for me is, like you said, they've both been sitting on this for a while.

The problem is sitting on this just benefits Jimmy Kru. Much younger guy. Minifield 35, Crut like 27, I think. And he showed that he was durable enough to survive the big shots from Menefield. And he had many opportunities to get the finish himself. And I think this time he is just going to be a little more well prepared, a little more well-schooled. I'm taking him at the minus 120 price. And that's all I got on it.

I love it. I love it. Going to be a great one. Might be my fight of the night. Who knows. It's going to be fun. Someone's getting finished. It's my revenge bet.

All right. We got five more fights to get into. Let's run through them quickly. Catchweight bout, 130. Edgar Shirez taking on Tatsuro, Taira. Right now you can get Taira for minus 1,050. Edgar Chires.

Edgar Chires plus 700. Again, it's like just a short notice debutante taking on like a serious prospect. Sharra's lost on Contender Series. I just think Tyra's going to sub him. Like I think it's the first, second round. I think he's just going to submit him. I mean, I think that's true. I'm also just now, I definitely think that's true.

But I kind of want to figure out what I can get if I do a little Mexican parlay this weekend. Oh, God. And you're putting in Edgar? I mean, if you do them all, if you know, if you, if you go, you go Moreno, you go Rodriguez, you go, you go, you go, Chirae Zip is plus 5,800. Yeah, and you have a, uh, teen loser. I was going to say, and you have a losing ticket. Yeah. There are a lot of fun parlays you, you could do, you could do here.

Oh, I didn't even think of, uh, you can get just, uh, Jesus Aguilar in there too. And then that gets her up to plus 10,000. Let's go. Losing ticket won't be doing it. But, you know, I just thought of it. I have nothing to say. Tyra is Tyra. He's going to be dope.

Yeah, I think I'm just going to drop Tyra into the chalk donkey, chalk monster soup, dumpster, parlay, auto loser guaranteed will not win parlay at minus 1,000. So right now I'm sitting at minus 189, just waiting on that bow nickel under two and a half to drop. You're going to get this thing down to like, minus 140. Yeah, I mean, a four leg minus 140 is what they call in this business. If I'm not mistaken, sharp. So that's what we're looking at here.

Let's say we do get it around that price. I mean, we're probably talking about like a, yeah, probably in like the minus 145 range. I mean, how does it lose? How does it lose? There's four opportunities for it to lose. Can't. And only one for it to win, really. That's the simplest summation for why parles are dumb.

Yeah, exactly. Four chances for it to lose and only one of them from to win. Yep, exactly. 100%. All right, let's keep it going. Light, heavyweight fight. Vitor Petrino taking on Marcine Procneo. Right now, Petrino can be had for minus 285.

Procneal plus 240. I have nothing on this fight. You know, can we move on? what are you have here? No, we can move on. I'm a little surprised by how wide the line is because Petrino very untested in general. It's not like prognos, like, great or whatever,

but been in there with a little bit better competition. But, yeah, I wouldn't touch this fight with 10-foot pole. All right, we keep it rolling. Bantamway about the other South African on the card, Cameron, Simon, taking on Terrence Mitchell. Again, short notice, stepping up. What seems to be a legit prospect, Simon minus 540, Terence Mitchell plus 390. I have nothing.

Maybe I'll throw Simon into the chalk monster. I thought about doing a South African parlay since I already am on duplice. But it doesn't even really add that much. Just get you like 70 points on DDP. So it's just like, no. Look, there's not much to say about a short notice fight. It is what it is. I like what we've seen from Simon so far.

I don't know that he's like a future contender, but he's still only like 20 or something dumb. So a lot of room for him to grow. Yeah, happy to see him get work, though. It's a perfectly reasonable sort of guy and fight to have in the early prelims for a major card. Yeah, especially for him, you know, he's picking up, trying to pick up steam.

So, yeah. Shout out. That's all I have to say on that. Flyway batterer. You could parlay up Patrino and Simon as the eight no parlay. They are both eight no. Oh, there it is. Yeah, that's what I was looking to do.

Let me get that eight no parlay going. If I add Simon to the chalk donkey, that gets us to minus 120. I mean, just getting more opportunities to fail. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Five losers in a row. Keep adding a couple of guaranteed winners. Nothing bad can happen to you, Connor. That's kind of what I'm saying.

It feels like nothing bad can happen to me. All right. Let's keep it going. Flyway about it. I remember when these things were special. I remember when they meant to mean, used to mean something. Shannon Ross taking on Jesus Aguilar. Right now you can have Shannon Ross for plus 120.

Jesus minus 140. I have got no action. Do you? I do not have any action. I also have done zero studies. so I have nothing even to say about this particular flight. Since we gave up flyweight unders, it kind of hurts my soul to even be like,

let's dig in a tape and see him. Yeah, I'm 100% with you in it. Yeah, it kind of hurts my soul. I remember when. It's a little bit freeing, though, on the flip side that, like, I, uh, you know, can just kind of, can just kind of chill. I don't have to force the bets. It's good not to force bets.

I think we can say that in our 50-some-odd episodes, I think we've conclusively learned forcing bets is bad. Forcing bets is bad. Let's move on. Lightweight bout. Final fight on the card. Camuela Kirk taking on Esteban, Rebovix. Right now you can have Reba Vix minus 150.

Camelta Kirk plus 130. I took Camelah Kirk earlier in the week. I did take him at plus 180. I actually like to move. So, me. I like to move to 155 for Kirk. I mean, he's got the size to be there. He was getting depleted at 145.

And the biggest thing, here just watching back some tape on rebivix i i think kirk's going to have a big advantage in the ground game like if he can avoid the power shots of rebivics uh and especially if he gets us to the ground i i think he's going to shine and i think he has real real potential to to be able to submit revix uh but either way i think he's a live dog i uh don't don't hate it um i the ground is the major question i mean we haven't seen much uh wrestling from rievovich and we haven't seen much uh wrestling from Rievovich and what we have hasn't been the most impressive. So I do think if Kirk gets it down there, there's certainly an opportunity for him to have

success there. I want to know how the weight class fits probably is the right one for him, but too many questions for me to feel good about placing a wager. So I got nothing. Yeah, I mean, you're a smarter man than me, and that is for certain. So six bets for me, Camuelo Kirk plus 180, crook men of field under two and a half, minus 210, Denise Gomez, money line plus 375. Pantosia plus 175.

Jalen Turner took a week's go, minus 180, and then Volk minus 425 parlayed with Whitaker minus 350. That pays out at minus 170. Originally had bone nickel in there, but that's that. Six bets. You didn't get that far out of your skis. You know, you kept it to only six. Wait until I had the chalk dumps there.

Well, then you had that, and then there's a lot of action. But I'm just at seven, keeping it still a little tighter. I've got, they're all plus money basically. I've got, Yair, Rodriguez, I got Brandon Marino by decision, DDP, and a little flyer on DDP by decision plus 1100, Robbie Lawler, plus 220, Jimmy Krupe, minus 120, and then the aforementioned parley, Turner, Delamette, Madelena, Marino, Pantoja, over one and a half, pays out at minus 120.

So keeping it tidy. We're going to see if we can go back to back, no losses. I may never lose again. Connor. Hey, that's the mindset that we need. That is UFC 290. That is No Bet's Bard. Next week, we're back.

Holly Holm versus... Bainteaule fight. Mara Buena Silva. That is absolutely correct. Honestly. Women's vacant Bantamway title fight. I think the KSW card might be better. I don't think that that's a question.

Hey, we got Albert Dariye of June Young Park in the Comain. I will, if you're trying to make a case, at least from my standpoint on this, we've got four or five lightweight fights next week. If you just fill up a fight car with lightweight fights, it's probably at least going to be fun as hell because lightweight almost always delivers. So we've at least got that. I already got something. The Azater Prado doesn't go to a decision parlayed with Terence McKinney fight doesn't go to a decision. I feel like a real good start to the week for you. And we might bounce back with Tyson NAM with a little flyweight under.

He's taking on an undefeated prospect. Next week's episode, 20 minutes. If that, see you then. Love y'all. The Vox Media Podcast Network.