MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Alexander Volkanovski Get His Revenge Against Islam Makhachev At UFC 294?

Episode Date: October 18, 2023

The No Bets Barred boys are back this week with a full breakdown of UFC 294 and the lightweight title rematch between Islam Makhachev and Alexander Volkanovski. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a discussion of their excitement levels for the UFC's return to Abu Dhabi and the short notice replacement main event between Makhachev and Volkanovski. Then it's right into the fight breakdowns as Conner and Jed debate Volkanovski's chances to pull off the upset, Kamaru Usman's prospects of doing the same against Khamzat Chimaev, and a few choice underdog plays from both me on some undercard bouts. Tune in for episode 66 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer,

but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster of the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back, another edition of No Bet's Bard this time for UFC 294. The promotion makes its return to Abu Dhabi for the rematch of Islamakshv versus Alexander Volcanowski. We saw it back in February.

Now we get it again on short notice. A couple short notice fights on this one. I personally, I actually like the card better. But I mean, we're going to dive into the entire thing. I am very excited for this one. It's nice to six weeks without a UFC pay-per-view. Kind of feeding the itch, scratching the itch, feeding the hunger here.

Jed, how we feeling, man? Mixed feelings. this just isn't feeding the hunger for me I'm kind of with you on it you know it's been a while so I had a pay-per-view I'll also be pretty honest I wasn't I wasn't feeling it before the changes

that much I was talking myself into being interested in the Oliva Machschev rematch because I do think that that's a the fight's pretty fun or at least pretty interesting and kind of what they will do differently I have been on record.

I really dislike this main event. Not from a in-cage perspective. Like, obviously, their first fights fight of the year. So if we're lucky, we'll get two. I just really dislike the circumstances of it. I think we all want this fight to happen. I think a lot of people just want it to happen now. and I wanted it to happen next year with a proper build.

I want Volk to fight to Puriah. I wanted Islam to actually defend his title against lightweight contenders. Call me crazy. Call me crazy. But it'd be great. Your issue with it is not that we're getting the matchup again. Your issue is that Volk isn't getting a full camp. There isn't a proper build to it.

It's the timing. Okay. Yeah. You can't really have an issue with this fight. as a fight because we saw them fight and it was terrific. My issue is that there are, the shortest way I can say this, there are two situations that this plays out. One, the fight isn't as good because Volk didn't have a full camp because, you know, the various

changes here. And now we kind of lose something from what could have been this epic fight because we don't get the big buildup. You know, we don't get, hey, Islam has now held his belt for our. a lot. He's defended against at least one other guy. There's a sense of this being this massive event. Instead, it's a bit haphazardly thrown together on short notice. Or, like, maybe the fight is at least good, but the outcomes here I just aren't what I want because we're going to lose something from this fight, I believe, right? And that's my issue with this. This is not a no lose fight. This is a

fight where we are either going to lose the epicness of this battle, like the what this could be at its greatest potential, which is as high as mixed martial arts can go, or we are going to lose Alexander Volcanowski versus Ilya Tuporio, which is a fight that I was extremely interested in. And there is a world here, and I think that this is the world that everybody is living in and everybody believes it wants to talk themselves into happening, where Volt comes in on three days or 12 days notice and wins and it's this great epic story and if if he does it is very much that but then what the hell happens next because these are the two of the best divisions in the sport man they're the two best divisions in not the two best because bantamway but two of the

three best divisions in the sport and if vogue wins we're definitely going to get a trilogy fight and i know that people will be stoked on that that means the lightweight belt for two years years and some change is going to be tied up into one match and the featherweight belt is going to kind of be tied up into that. And it's just, I feel like I've been taking crazy pills the whole time. Like, can I just see these dudes fight the best guys in their respective weight classes and not fight each other forever? I don't, I get that I'm in the minority, totally understand it, but like. It's circumstantial though. Listen, you, you, cannot make Islam Makashchev, Mateus Gamrod.

Absolutely can. In Abu Dhabi. They were never going to do that. You absolutely can. If they were never going to do that, the right of the backup. You can. That's the thing is you can. They've put together substantially worse pay-per-views.

This is a choice. And I understand. The key is that it is in Abu Dhabi. The key is that it is in Abu Dhabi. Yeah. If it's in Las Vegas, yeah, they might make Mokachev versus Gamron. It's fine. Like, I get, I understand the business of this.

I understand why Volk is doing it. I'm not saying any of those things are bad, but like, I don't know, man. I'm just really exhausted with the world where the outcomes here in the best case scenario probably is a Volk win, and we'll get into all of that. And I don't even, I don't like that outcome. The worst case scenario is Makachev wins. This fight isn't fun because maybe Volk hasn't had time to prepare, so it's not what we wanted and then Volt goes back, but they make Tuporia fight Max Holloway.

Max beats Tuporia. We get Max Volk four. And then the next fight we get is Machchev Olivaera. Now we're spiraling. Now we're spiraling out of control. I mean, we just got to cross that bridge when we come to it. We just got to see what happens here. That's the issue is the entirety of the UFC freaking structural things right now are, well,

we're going to do now. We are going to do the now and we'll deal with the other in the future. And that's how you get Drickus duplice fighting two, you know, months before Izzy instead of being like, hey, we could do this better. And it is just exhausting. Yeah. You sound genuinely upset by this. It's just so tough. Like, I am, Conn and McGregor broke the sport eight years ago, and it's just brutal.

There's like a very real world where Islam Hakachev's first, like, two years of title defenses is just him fighting two dudes. And again, I know that everyone loves this. I know that I am the minority. Recognize these things. That's fine. I don't know. Call me crazy. I don't think beating I ear Rodriguez, mayor, it's a lightweight title shot.

Like, you fought, you lost is a terrific fight. Do some more work before we get here. And it's on fight somebody else. Well, now we're talking. Again, this goes back to the circumstances of how the fight got made. Like, they clearly were trying to have Olivera Makashev and the cut above the eyebrow. So I wasn't even great about Ola-Chair-Machachev, for being honest. I was prepared to get on here and be like, okay, I guess we're doing this.

This was just, we were never going to be positive about this card, huh? We were just like, this was, I mean, we were just, deep-in-the-weeas-card was ever good. And I still, it's just like, I understand it, but it's just, it's never got to me. I'm very excited for. I will say the co-main event change. absolutely improved my view on this card. I think it's super weird, and there's a part of it that I also hate

and we can get into that, but I did not have a ton of interest in Hamzat versus Costa other than watching Hamzat fight at this weight class and sort of seeing what that's about, but I wanted to see Hamzat fight Kamar Usman two years ago, and so getting that, even if it's under weird circumstances,

it's at least like interesting to me. But yeah, I, and we can also be honest at this point Connor like we know we have no secrets from our listeners they're wonderful people you hate alexander volkinovsky i got forced into it straight up i did if you go listen to me talk about volkenovsky like four years ago and it's glowing because he's an unbelievable fighter i say it every time he might be the best fighter i've ever seen the discourse around him has morphed into something that is hard to deal with and i'm i am partly happy that This is only 12 days notice, so there can't be six months of being, I'm the ball-iest man alive for taking this lightweight title shot.

And all of these other categorically insane things. Did he say that once in his interview on the U.M.A. Obviously, that was paraphrased. But he said just today at Media Day, if the roles are reversed, Mokachev isn't taking this fight. And what is that if not saying, I have more balls than Mokachev? When I straight up, this is a way riskier move for Islam to accept this fight. and no one's ever going to give him freaking credit for it. I've seen people giving Islam credit.

I've seen people giving Islam credit for taking this fight. All right. Is it the same? Are they giving him the same? Is there the same rush to fet this man as the bravest human alive for, oh my God, which is Volcanovsky? I just don't understand the hate for this guy. Like, he is, he will take any fight.

He is an absolute monster. He's uncontroversial. He doesn't switch up. He doesn't change. He comes, he takes care of business, and he goes back to Australia, man. Cooks up a little dinner, puts it on his YouTube channel. The personality kills me. I just...

What is it about the personality? Oil and water. I can't do it, man. It's oil and water. What personalities do you like within the UFC? I mean, at this point, I don't know. I'd have to think about it. But like, I don't...

Look, Connor, sometimes people just run me the wrong way. We need to get you a big old... We need to get a big old picture of positivity over here. I was never going to be positive about... of Orkinovsky fight week. Just in everything. We just need a little bit more positivity. I'm in general positive.

Just not this fight week. Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. I'm largely a positive person. Sometimes I scroll your Twitter feed. I'm like, man, where's all this negativity coming from, Jed? Well, look, I have a brand. I got to keep up with it, you know. It's just how it goes.

It's just a brand negativity. Sometimes I'm like, come on. Either way. Let's get, you're going to be here. This is, I'm excited. Look at all of the favorites on this cord. This is a series of squash matches. Why do you think I like it so much?

I'm a goddamn, I'm a chalk donkey, dude. Now the truth comes out. I do think that there are some pretty good underdog spots on this car, but like, this ain't getting, I mean, shouts will be early. I do love an early card. Oh, my God. I mean, that's another reason. Like, the fact that we're kicking off the main card at two, like, it's a thing of beauty. That's great.

I just, I got to get through this week. and I hope that Volcanovs loses because if he does, then maybe we can go back to the real world where people just fighting their weight classes and it's great. And then I can stop doing this. Because if he wins,

I'm probably logging off Twitter for like a year. We're so on opposite ends. I've come out and said, if Volk pulls this off, it might go down as my favorite moment as a UFC fan. There's no way it's my favorite moment. Even outside of my personal dislike like for the narrative of Alexander Volcanovsky, it would be a terrific moment, undeniably,

but it wouldn't be near my top, you know, MMA moments in history. I mean, it would be just so crazy. But I'm desperately hoping that he does not do this because my mentions will be tough scenes. Yeah, it'll be bad. It'll be tough scenes. Yeah, it'll be bad. All right. Let's die right in.

Main event. Well, you have to tell me, because I miss the gamble. spot on the May hour. How did we do last week? Yeah, I mean, since I was last on No Bet's Bar, two more winning weeks. We keep it rolling. I believe that is 13 of the last 15 weeks, winning weeks. Knock on wood,

we can keep it rolling. Approaching 100 units all time. We're at about 96. I mean, we're one really good week away from hitting that 100 unit mark. And at that point, I might just hang it up. I mean, I might just put the jersey in the rafters, say, Bon Voyage and just head off into the sunset. You'll put your own jersey

in the rafters? Yeah, that might be it. That might be it, man. A hundred units. I, you know, I've done my time in the game. I've proven everything I can prove and it's time to head off into the sunset and stop with all this stress and everything that comes along with this game. What were the big hitters for you

last week? What did you, what you nail? Tommy Fury KSI goes to a decision. That was a terrific bet. Plus 105. I got plus money on that and it was just never in doubt. Like I was A walk. I was never worried about that one.

And then I had a couple other parlias that did me good. So yeah, hopefully we can keep it rolling this week. You know, I joke about the 100 units thing. This game will humble you so fast. I mean, I could lose seven units this week and just be that much further away from it. So I'm not going to get out in front of my skis here. And hopefully we can just bring home some green on Saturday. If you lose seven units, that means there were some upsets because, again,

A lot of plus three or plus three hundredths on this card. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm not sure you're taking any of them. Yeah, it's, I do have one big dog. We can dive into that later. I got a few dogs. I got a few dogs. Yeah, I'm very interested to hear what you have to say.

So let's jump right in. Let's do it. Main event, lightweight championship, Islam Makashev, taking on Alexander Volkanowski. Second time they face off. This time, you can have Islam Makashev for minus 290, Volcanovsky coming back at plus 235. Yeah, so you know where I stand.

I'm wearing a, I'm wearing the Volcanovsky ring shirt right now. Like, support the guy. He is one of, if not, my favorite fighter. Love the Australian stuff. Love, love his attitude. Love everything about it.

But when it comes to the fight itself, I am quite, quite torn on this. Like, I know how close the last fight was, but I just feel like the circumstances are much different around this one, like we discussed earlier in the show. Like he is taking this on incredibly short notice. He hasn't. I mean, it felt like last camp, all he was doing was just drilling the wrestling.

Like he made it very clear, like, that's what he was doing. Now, don't feel like he's been actively doing that for the last six weeks, wherever long he has for a normal camp. He's also on the road this time. He's not in Australia. He's in Abu Dhabi. The crowd is going to be heavily. on Islam's favor.

He has to adjust to the climb and adjust to the time, everything like that, whereas Islam has been chilling out there for a while. So yeah, man, if I'm being totally honest, I feel like Islam gets it done again. And when it comes to the over-under, sometimes I'm like, oh, I think there's actually going to be a finish this time. But then I'm like, they're also just like so incredibly tough and so good at what they do. It's probably just going to be a decision. I actually have no bet, no bet for the main event.

Yeah. The bet was barred. There's no bet. If I'm giving my official prediction, I'm going to say Islam by either a late finish or like a 49-46 decision. Let me try and sell you on something that comes. Sure, sure. I got two bets here. Okay.

And it's going to be a bit of a swerve because my bets are on Alexander Volkinovsky. Wow. Look, I want to get this out of the way. There's a world where I'm subconsciously emotionally hedging. I was going to say, is this like a little shield of the fence? There's a one that comes at you if he wins, you could just be like, I fucking bet on him. I knew he was going to win. So I'm not saying I know he is going to win.

There's not like a level of confidence in this bet. Right. I'm saying hindsight if it hits. Yeah. But again, this would be the same thing I say every single time. You hate Alexander Volkovsky, but I'm like, yeah, personalities don't mix. Don't love hanging out with them. I've never once disputed that he is one of the very best fighters I've ever seen.

And I say that coming into this, it's been like, hey, man, I watched them fight in February, and it was very competitive fight. I scored the fight three to two to Makachev on rewatch. I think that you could credibly score the fight four to one, but that does not dictate. dictate how close that fight was. It was extremely competitive. And I, these odds are not the odds of a fight that is extremely competitive. Now, get what you're saying about that as short notice. And I think, I think that's part of my issue with this, with this fight as well, is that that is a big narrative. And truthfully, not sure how much of that is there because been a lot of reports, rumors out there that

basically since the hand surgery six weeks ago or whatever Volk has been in the gym training as if this fight would happen which if that's the case incredibly smart from him like credit to him and if also if that's the case that's not a full fight camp not like exactly what you want but it's still pretty close it's still better than sitting on the couch and answering the call Nate Diaz-esque and on the other side of things Makachev has had a full you know camp for the sporting aspect of this. But there are not two fighters more dissimilar, really, than Alexander Volcanovsky and Charles Olivaire.

The prep that he would be doing for one of those men is extremely not the same as the other. The difference in what they bring to the table, how they compete is so drastic that I think there is very much a world where if Volk has been prepping this whole time, you know, as he has said and as sort of has been reported, and Mogachev hasn't, then this actually gives Volko

a little bit of a low-key advantage in having more time to drill specific things for it. But this really just comes back to value, man. I watched the first fight. First fight was really competitive. You know, if Volcanovsky doesn't give up that takedown in the fourth,

maybe he wins a fight. You know, it absolutely could have happened. So you're getting plus 260 in some books right now for a straight bet on him. I think that that is extremely, extremely valuable. And so I had to take a bet on that. I would never bet Machachev at these prices, given what he is. That's just way too high. And I also threw a little bit down on Volcan side the distance because he's, I mean, he's said the things, and you always take what fighters say with

the grain of assault. But I do think coming off of that fight, I think there are a lot of adjustments both guys can make, and this fight could look different. But I think Volkanowski, if I'm Volkanovsky, if I'm Volkanovsky and I'm looking at that I would probably say need to be a little bit more aggressive because where he the aggression opened him up to counters at times but there were just parts of that fight where he didn't do enough and we know he's got we know he's got knockout power we know that Islam can get got and can get clipped um Volk kind of tagged him in the in that last round there so I think we might see a little bit more of an aggressive Volkanovsky and especially see a more aggressive Okunovsky if all this stuff.

if I just said is untrue and that he hasn't been training, and that this is really him coming up on just a few weeks notice. He's going to have to gamble more. He can't try and win that game without. So I think there's a ton of value on Volk straight, and you get him inside the distance at plus 360. It took a little sprinkle on that because why not? And yes, Connor, yes, probably an emotional hedge here,

that if Volk does win, I can be okay with it because I made some monies. And if he loses, I will not care about losing these. two bets whatsoever. Okay. So free roll bets for me. A few things in reaction to this. Fokanovsky inside the distance is the one that I considered. I was like, I agree with you in the sense that I feel like the adjustments that he's going to

make and the things that he said, he is not going to be looking to leave this to the scorecards. I will also say, take what fighters say with the smallest. grain of salt on planet earth. Last week, the Tommy Fury KSI fight goes to a decision. I was like, I love this bet, took it plus money. And then all I heard all week, Tommy Fury. Early night at the office, this is nothing. I'm going to absolutely fry this guy.

He's a piece of shit. He is the scum of the earth on the bottom of my shoe. Like, I am going to absolutely throttle this guy. I promise you. On my life that I'm going to finish this guy, if it's a decision, then I lost. hate myself. And he cried tears of victory. And then he wins a majority of decision and he ends up crying and it was never even close

to being finished. Like it's the amount of times that you can go back and be like, oh, like what a fighter said was actually not at all how the fight went. I mean, that's what makes the Mystic Mac thing that much more special. Back to the fight itself, though. Inside the distance, I think you may have talked me into it. Draft King Sportsbook right now hanging a plus five hundie on inside the distance, Volcanovsky.

That is a better number. Plus 500, I think that's a terrific play. I think I'm going to do it. I think I'm going to do it. I mean, why not? You know, he's your boy. It'll be that much cooler.

Like, because if he wins by finish, I'll be going crazy anyway. And then if I'm also cashing a plus 500, I'll be going that much more crazy. Life's too short to not back the boys, you know? It is. Before we exit this fight, I do want to get this out here first,

because I'm going to go on other podcasts. other shows. Go ahead. I want us to be the one who breaks it. Oh, thank you. Thank you. I'm willing to stipulate right here right now that if Alexander Volkinovsky does win, look, this doesn't affect his featherweight legacy at all because I don't know if you

know this. This fight is not a featherweight. He's simply not a greater featherweight than Josie Aldo, though he is a better one. If he wins this fight, I am open to the conversation of him being the best fighter ever. I am at this point in time, I'm not open to it because I've largely made a vow that we just, I'm just not having those conversations until a fighter retires because the end of fighters careers can change that so dramatically. You look at Anderson Silva Fador guys who, if they had retired at various spots, would be unquestionably in that conversation. Straight up, if Volk wins, he should probably retire because it ain't getting better. but if he wins this fight,

he's obviously the best pound for pound fighter in the world, which he probably already is. And if he wins this fight, he has very much inserted himself into the goat conversation, which a lot of stakes, a lot of opportunity there. So just want to get that out. I appreciate that.

I appreciate you coming out, coming forward, being willing to stipulate if the results go that way. hope it's a great fight that's one thing you said off the top like hope it's a great fight because there's a lot of times

where you get the rematch and it's not as good it's so we talked about this when the fight was announced or it was like yeah that's the best hope is that this fight you know I don't think

it's going to live up to the first one because the first one is really incredible and if it does then this is a spectacular year but just so many times like you said rematches don't live up

and given the circumstances, there's more opportunity for this to not be as fun or as compelling. And to me, the actual worst case scenario is this fight happens, it's boring. It's not as good. And Volk loses. And then it's just like, well, we wasted our one shot at this magical rematch in these circumstances. And now Makachev goes and fights Olivaira. And hopefully Volk fights to Puria and doesn't like come away too beat up from this. to turn quickly.

They'll actually agree with you. It's that, yeah, it would be a bummer if this was just like a boring Makashev 49-46 win clear on the scorecards and it's just like, damn. Dude, if this is a fight that Makachev just gets the back and trying body locks for four rounds, part of me will celebrate this because that will make me very happy. But that will undeniably be not good viewing. Yeah, yeah. That would be a bummer.

Let's move on, though. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Ugh, what? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea. Feel the fun with all the latest slots in live casino games and with no wagering requirements. What you win is yours to keep groovy.

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our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfru.com. Got to keep it wrong. Let's go to the co-main event, middle-weight out. This guy. Hamzachamai. Take it on Kamara Usman. Right now, you can have the man, Bors,

the wolf for minus 290, Usman coming back at plus 235. Actually, they are lined the exact same on Draft King Sportsbook right now, both minus 290 for the favorite plus 235 for the underdog. A lot of questions going into this one. I mean, both these guys moving up to 185. Hamzat obviously fought there before. I mean, for Usman, you got the injuries, obviously the short notice, the weight class. And then honestly, like, if you look at his performance,

is inside the cage. Like, that last one against Leon Edwards was a pretty big dud from him. And I mean, he's doing fashion. He's doing acting. Like, where's the motivation at after having that rain with the belt, losing it? You know, now you're stepping into fight an absolute killer. I mean, then on the Homestead side, like, this will be, like, the best fighter that he has fought. I feel like without a shadow of the doubt.

Well, yeah. Camor is the best fighter most people. fall. Yeah. I mean, it was Gilbert Burns before this and Gilbert Burns got smoked by Kamar Usman. Though the Burns had his moments. Yeah, he did. He did.

He did. That's true. Gilbert Burns also had his moments against Tom Zat, too. Good. Gilbert Burns, tough guy. Tough guy, dude. Tough guy. To the fight itself, how are we feeling on this one?

So, as I mentioned up at the top, I'm a little more interested in this. Again, these are not perfect circumstances. I would have preferred this fight two years ago. preferred it for the welterweight's belt but um i don't think we were ever going to get this fight unless it was kind of circumstances like this at this point um because it just didn't seem and i'm more interested in this than costa because i just didn't really care about the coaster fight and this is really compelling and my analysis here is going to be not terribly dissimilar from my analysis at the main event i think you're getting a ton of value on kamar usman i got some more

questions because of of the various questions you put out there, the injuries, the recent history, the short notice, upper weight class, a lot of question marks about what Kamar Usman's going to look like under these circumstances. But look, look, we all know the story of Hamzot at this point. I was about as big a Hamzot dude as could be when he broke in. Things have sort of slowed a bit over his recent, like past two years. I have no idea with this. fight is going to look like. If Hamzok comes out and he is simply too large and too physical, which I think is a very real possibility, and he immediately takes Usman down, and we saw Leon Edwards, what he did to Camero Usman from top position and the sort of inability of Usman to

shake Leon Edwards off. If Hamzok gets set on Usman, this is going to be a bad day. I'm not sure he does, though. Usman is such a good defensive wrestler. And unlike with Edwards, where the game plan was get in tie-ups let's try and force these takedowns and leon kind of hit counters and um you know scrambles i think the plan for usman is very very simple i'm a jab this dude's face off i'm a stay away from the exchange i'mmaab this dude's face off and maybe fire the right hand behind it i think you can make a lot of hay with that against uh chimaev so i think there's a real chance that ousman comes out here and just kind of shows class that chmai have we know Tramive is really talented and rugged, but we haven't seen a ton of depth on the feet, certainly.

And if he is forced into that kind of a fight, I think Usman's a little bit better served here. So I'm going with that. I'm taking Usman as the underdog bet again, just firing in at it. I mean, how many times in life do you get Kamala Usman at plus 250, you know? It's crazy to say. It's a big number for one of the 15 best fighters ever, if not higher than that. and I'm also going to I'm double stacking again. Wow.

I'm throwing a little bit of cheddar, a little bit of sprinkle on Usman by decision prop. Just because, you know, this is this is three rounds, not five. This are five. I would not feel confident with a decision bet, but three rounds where I think the most effective weapon, the biggest weapon in this sort of narrative I'm telling myself is Usman's jab. Um, Usma by decision plus 5.50. Yep, exactly.

So, um, doing the double stack on the main and co-main. Um, so for the fight itself for me, uh, I mean, like it feels like Kamar Usman has been able to thrive off of, of physicality using that strength that he has. Hadn't hurt him. Hadn't heard him. Been able to just toss people around. Don't know if he's going to be able to do that here. And obviously that's just a question mark. That's, that's something that I will.

like you said, I have no idea what this fight is going to look like. It could look many, many different ways. I mean, there is a world where Hamzaa comes out here and just, like, brutalizes him. It just like tackles him and finishes him. Just Kevin Hollins him. Yes. Yeah, there is a world where that happens. There's also a world where, like, you said, like Usman is able to stuff the takdowns. I mean, the dudes take down defense is like 99% over a monster sample size. And if he's able to stuff to take downs, this is a whole new fight. Because, like, we saw Hamzad get hurt against Gilbert. Burns in the striking. It's not like Usman is a master in striking, but like I think he's

he's enough to hold his own against Hamzad. Hamzad hasn't, yes, he has knockout power. Hamzaa's not a master either, yeah. Yeah, he's not a master. But at the end of the day, man, this guy Hamzad has been a money train for Maine. And I'm going to, I'm going to continue to ride it. I'm going to take him in a small parlay. But then I'm also, the bigger bet is the inside the distance minus 115. I'm going to lean on the side that he's able to get the takedowns, and once he gets the takedowns, the grappling will excel, and he's able to finish him. So I don't mind the inside the distance.

I looked at that as a counter hedge to my own, because I do think if, if I'm winning this, I don't think it's on the scorecards. If he's winning it, it's because he gets takedowns, and if he gets takedowns, I think he's getting a finish. So I like the, if you're going to play it, I think the inside of distance, I'm always pulling for you. I'm always rooting for you. This is a parley piece.

I don't want to parlay the favorites in the main or co-main at all. Those numbers are very large. Yeah, I don't blame you. I don't even feel great about the next fight with a parley. Parley and him in it. I actually agree with you there. We can talk about that in one. I did it, but I don't feel great about it.

Oh, my God. And we can talk about that in one second. Before we move on, future of the promotion, whatever, aside, whatever you want to say, I love the two the storyline surrounding this like Hamzat either continues to be an absolute nightmare for everyone, no pun intended

or it's a nice like y'all must have forgot moment if Usman wins this like this would be thoroughly impressive if if Usman came out here and beat Hamzat up a weight class on 10, 12 days notice whatever it is and then obviously Makashev can just continue

his trajectory into God this guy's unbelievable status and Volk has the chance It's the obviously double champ. And, you know, we start talking about him potentially being the greatest fighter of all time. So the storyline surrounding the final two fights, I am very excited for the way they're going to unfold. Yeah. I mean, they're compelling narratives coming in in that way.

And I will admit, I'm flirting with the idea of parlaying Volk and Usman. What is that? Plus a thousand. It's in fact plus a thousand, just as a gimmick of the, I would tentatively call that parlay the, 12 days notice up a weight class parlay. That's legends parlay? I mean like two legends in the game like stepping in saving the card. 12 days notice top 15 all time fighters up a weight class parlay.

We'll workshop the name. There's got to be an acronym or something we can shorten that thing up. Plus a thousand. I got to say because, you know, apparently I'm the negative man. I dislike that they have functionally come out and say that this is for a middleweight title shot. I think we all could have guessed. I think we all could have guessed that this would happen, you know? Like we all could have been like, yeah, it's probably going to happen.

But I don't think this fight needed that part to make it a compelling, interesting matchup. And instead it's just like, man, it's going to be really weird when these two welterweights are fighting for a middleweight title shot. Yeah. I think combined in the UFC Octagon, they have like 11 minutes of fight time at 185. and that's like all Hamzot. And like, I think it's from one fight that made it to the second round. Yeah, he's saying Gerald Mearsart. Yeah.

That was 12 seconds or whatever. I'm sorry, but that K.O. highlight is so good. It's just like the biggest pop of just like getting absolutely flattened. Yeah, Gerald Mearschart was 17 seconds. John Phillips was. Yeah, John Phillips went to the second round, didn't he? Yeah, it was six minutes and 12 seconds. Yeah.

Everyone thinks it's short, but it was Shabai of. beating the soul out of him for the first round and then finishing it in the second. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, so like the biggest thing is just like, I feel like I'm going to know on this inside the distance, but quickly. I think that that's true. If that bad boy's going to hit or not, because if Hamzot finishes you, he usually just is able to do what he wants and he gets you out of there quickly. Great to see him back in the Octagon, though. Great to see him back. I mean, it's been a minute. It has been a while. Yeah, glad to have him back. It's a great fight.

It's a weird fight. The circumstances are weird, but I'm interested. So this is my main event. I'll be, I'll be gritting my teeth and praying during the main, during the co-main. I just sit back and enjoy. I love it. All right. Let's keep it rolling on the main card light heavyweight bow magamette on Kalai.

I've taken on Johnny Walker. You talk about sort of a weird fight. I feel like this fight is going to be. Well, it's Johnny Walker fight. When is Johnny Walker ever had a normal fight? I feel like this bad boy goes one of two ways. We are either like, oh, that was fun. That was pretty chaotic.

Or it is just the snoosiest snoozer of all time. Right now, Uncle Live minus 360. Walker coming back at plus 285. So you talked about parlaying him up. I think Anka Lave wins. But at the price tag, I kept him out of my parlase. So that's the absolute reasonable way to approach this. and if I was being a reasonable man,

I would not. Apparently I'm going to have four parles this week because I think I am going to... Oh my God. I thought you were about to say four parleses tied to Munga Man. No, no, no, no. I am going, he's going to be in a couple of these parlays, but since I'm probably going to actually do the aforementioned

12 days notice up a weight class, top 15 all-time fighter parlay, that will be my fourth because, I guess three, because I haven't punched him in yet, but I have them written down here. He's going to be in one, of two, Paul is, depending on how it shakes out.

Because I think he's going to win this fight. I am of the opinion that Maga Manacolaev is probably the actual best light heavyweight on the planet. Just the depth of his skills where it went. I don't have an issue with what happened in the Blahovic fight. I also think Blahovic is sort of a uniquely bad style matchup for him in a lot of ways. So, like, I don't have an issue if you don't think he's the best two of five or in the But if I had to pick one champion, he would be it.

And Johnny Walker is this sort of, you know, mercurial dude who has had a great run of form lately. Kind of turned it around after being in a weird spot. But I think Magma and Glyev, his game is pretty well built to handle Johnny Walker. He can get the takedowns when he wants and or needs them. And Anclyev's is a pretty good counter-striker distance. I think he just can do the leg kick thing to Johnny Walker. And Johnny Walker will at some point try and do something crazy. and probably get caught.

So taking a shot on Ankylaev inside the distance plus money, it's plus 140 where I got it at. And because there are several gimmicks that can be done here, Ankylaev is potentially tied into two parlayes. One of them, you know, the Magamatov parlay. There are several Magamadoves going on in this fight card. So pretty easy parlay to make happen. And the other kind of, I don't know,

I don't know if you dug in and did the research like I did. but we got four, count them one, two, three, four combat Sambo World Champions fighting on this card, arguably the greatest base in mixed martial arts today. I'll tell Craig Jones that. Well, you know, we'll see if that matters because, you know, he's got going on. So depending on which of these three parlayes I decide to put money down, he'll either be in the Magamad Parlay or the Combat Sambole World Champion Parlay. So to be clear, the, the Margot Sambole. Magamette Parlay would be Magamad on Kalayev, Sayydena Magamatov, and Sharra Bullitt Magamatov.

Correct. Nice. Nice. I like that. I like that. That parlay pays out plus 170. That parlay is the one I am largely considering removing because of Sharabuton and being not the best dude.

So you have the Magamad, you have the Sambo, and then you have the 12DNUAWAW. WCT15 ATP Parlay. I got another one too, but we haven't gotten into any of those fighters yet. And just to be clear, that is the 12 days of notice up away class, top 15 all time parlay. Correct. That I just laid out for you. We all know. We all.

Everyone knows. Largely agree with you on how the fight plays out. I'm also going back to the well. I'm doing something that I know could very well hurt me. You know, could be bad for me in the log run. I'm taking the under. under two and a half minus 150. I know what I'm getting into here.

This is either going to be one of the easiest bets I ever make and it's just like, of course. I mean, that was a no-brainer. Or I'm going to want to pull my hair out and I'm going to hate my life because there's been several times where I've taken Johnny Walker unders and it is just smooth sailing. It's just easy.

Guys got 11 UFC fights. Seven finishes coming in the first round. But when he doesn't get the finish in the first round or get finished in the first round, he's gone to four decisions. And I mean, if you've been a part of the program, if you have tailed any of those, I mean, you know just how frustrating it can be. The Anthony Smith fight could have been finished on several occasions. The Tiago Santos won. That was, yeah, I mean, it was just no one wanted to throw a punch. And then somehow Johnny Walker versus Nikita Krilov went to a decision.

I mean, I just don't even know how that's possible. But yeah, I know what I'm getting into here. I think this is a good price. I think Johnny Walker is, Magum and Uncleyev is going to dictate how this fight is going to go. And Johnny Walker is going to try something. And I do think he, I think he's gone. And if he doesn't, I think he can be successful with getting the finish. So, yeah, I know what I'm getting into.

But as long as you know. Price was too good for me to pass up. As long as you are aware, then that's all that matters. matters. All right. Let's keep it rolling. We're still on the main car. We've got to start flying

through these bad boys. I have very little to say about most of the remaining fights. So I wanted to front load us with the fights I cared about. Middle way about Ikram Alaskarov

taking on a short notice Warli Alves. Right now, Ikram minus 625 Alves plus 4.50. No one's talking about this short notice, Connor. No one's talking about

Nassardine pulling out the main two of taking the spotlight from our boy, Icrum. Yeah, man. Yeah, Warli Alves is only 32, which is, I don't know, it just feels like it doesn't really make sense in my head. But yeah, I don't know.

This is a tough matchup for him. It's tough, right. We really both bet on Warley Alvesz at Chalk Odts against Nicholas Stalby. Just back in January. That was our finest moment. That was crazy. I mean, that's why people are like, y'all suck at gambling. I'm like, yeah.

I know. You know, we almost got there. That was a splitty? It was a splitty. I felt like, I felt like Dalby just ran through him like butter. Maybe that's just me thinking back on just him being the Brazilian killer, the old Brazilian beast. That's the thing is we, I don't, did we know that he was a Brazilian killer at that point? Or did we find that out later?

We were aware of speculations. That stamped. That confirmed. Yeah. That was the one we're like, yeah. Now, now we know what's up. Yeah, and I believe in just two short weeks. Yep, he's heading back to Brazil to take on Gabriel Bonfine.

I know we're all, ooh, Bonfine brother. Well, that's a shame for that bomb fiend. Yeah, that sucks that he's going to have to get derailed like that. He's doing it in Brazil. This guy loves going to Brazil and beating Brazilians. He's an absolute madman. The true Brazilian killer. Shouts to Nicholas Dolby.

Yeah, Alves, though, I mean, he's four and six since 2016. He's coming in on short notice against like a pretty high-level process. aspect. Also, you know. I feel like he's going to look decent and then like he's probably going to gas and like Ikram's going to put it on him and finish him. Also, Alves is a welterweight. Yes, that is another part of that.

We could add that part in. This is, I mean, I feel like, I feel like I'm going to finish him in, in like the second or third round. Yeah. I mean, also if you look at Alves, he's been finished in three of his last four fights. and they all came in the second round. Ickrum round two, not a bad shout. Oh, what is that?

What is Ickram at round two? I noticed that. That's fun. I'm actually going to check it out right now. Icrum round two. Ikram round two. Fight ends in round two is plus 270. Give me an Alaskarov in round two.

There's got to be one out there, huh? Gotta be one. Gotta be one. I mean, locating, locating. Plus 340 is what I'm seeing. don't love it don't hate it I'd say I would love it I'd like it a little bit higher

for that sort of a specialty bet but we're getting like it we're trying to throw it as hard Vegas has checked the tape on on our boy Warlie yeah yeah I'm with you

I think Alaskarov is potentially actually a very very good fighter I mean one loss and that loss being the Hamzaa Chamaev it's a pretty good guy to lose to you know in far as quality competition

This is, and this is about the standard of competition he's faced so far in the UFC and kind of elsewhere, you know, Wallyelves is good, not great. Shame the Imov fight didn't happen because that was a pretty clear opportunity to establish himself as a top 15 guy. But it is what it is. I suspect to win. And he is leg three of the Combat Sambo World Champion Parlay. Of course, with Islam Akachev and Magnaecalive is the first two. legs of the Combat Simbao World Champion Parlay. So I believe I'll be betting that, even though betting that goes directly against

Alexander Volcanovsky bet. But just, you know, got to fly with the gimmicks as long as you have them, you know? I do have Ikram and in some parlays. Yeah, I feel like he gets it done. Let's keep it rolling. Last fight on the main card, Bantamweight Bout Saeed and Armagamatov taking on Mawin. Gafferov. Gafferov? Where's the...

I go Gaffarov, but I would not pretend to be... I'm no John Anik, you know? Yeah, I am no John Anik either. Right now you can have Saeed minus 205 Gafferov plus one 70. So I'm assuming Saeed's going to make it into your Magamette parley? If the magement parlay happens, he obviously isn't there. This is the parley I'm the most likely to cut, even though it's probably the best, like, actual parlay to do. you know, as far as betting-wise.

But yeah, I also think he should win this. The problem is old Gafferav is also Combat Sambo World Champion. And so he would be leg four of the Combat Sambo World Champion parlay plus money. It does help the parley. But I don't love his chances here. Saeed is the weirdest of the Numerga Medovs in part because he's not actually related to them. But he's been a decent fighter and probably wins would be. my guess. It's just a little bit better of a striker, frankly, and can, you know, probably

avoid the ground of Gaffrov. So if I'm just picking, I'm picking Narmagamadov, but one of these two men will be in a parley. It just depends whether I'd rather play the Magamatov parley or the Combat Timber World Champion parley. Yeah, like I, I'm with you. Like, I feel like he gets it done. I kind of feel like this is like a touch of a step back in competition for him from his last few fights. Like Jonathan Martinez, we're now seeing, you know,

what he can do at the top of this division, Douglas, the Silver Day Andrage. I mean, I know Sayyudyukov got cut, but like he was nice while he was in the UFC. Gavrov's tough, like he's never been finished.

But yeah, man, I do feel like Saeed's the better striker here, and he's kind of got him covered. And because the great, around. Like, I feel decent about them, too. I think this is Saeed's fight to win. Yeah. I agree, which is why the Combat Sembole World Champion Parlay. It's a four-leggar. Four-legged, never win. It's impossible. I'm with you. I've never seen one win. So, uh, yeah, I feel like we're in agreements there. Saeed Your Magamatov. I think he gets his handraised.

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on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. Let's keep it rolling to the prelims. Men's flyway bowed Tim Elliott taking on at Muhammad Mohayev. Right now, Mahayev, the big favorite. Minus 440, Tim Elliott coming back at plus 340.

I have nothing here. Mahia probably wins. Maybe he subs them. Probably goes to a decision. We know this guy. I mean, this guy was public enemy number one. And I feel like he's the, he was the first crack in the wall of Flyweight unders that led to the damn breaking and ruining that gimmick for us. So, yeah, I mean, I'll hold no bars here.

And, yeah, say, I just, I'm not putting my money here. Not putting my money here. I think that's, I don't do it. I won't do it. I believe that's smart. And Connor, I'm glad we're here because we got to talk this fight through because this is where I also need some guidance. Because straight up, I think Tim L.A. is a good bet.

I think that there's, this is a fight that I think Jack Slack put it on Twitter this week, sort of summed up my exact thoughts on this fight. I think I saw the same tweet. Which is booking Mahjave against a guy who can exclusively grapple is either a really good idea or a really terrible idea. I'm not sure which one. Tim Malade is,

he does make mistakes, but like that is also how he wins. And he's a funky year grappler. I mean, I have also makes mistakes. Mahive makes mistakes. Like, they almost got his two get blown out last fight.

Mm-hmm. They're going to get into exchanges, and grappling exchanges are going to get weird with it. I think if Mahive was just tried to not grapple, he probably could out, like, just straight about

strike to Milliet, but it's not what he has been about. I am as big on Mahamahev as just about anyone has been, you know, me and Mike Heck have been really pushing him. I think this is a great, a great,

level tester for him. And there's a great opponent for him. These odds, I don't really trust Maheyev at them. And thus, I think, getting plus 350 on, you know, Tim Elliott, his decent value. But Connor. But I don't know if you noticed. We also have three Mohammeds on this fight card. That's pretty tempting for a man like me who likes a gimmick.

Three Mohammeds on one fight card in Abu Dhabi. feels like maybe we could make that gimmick. And Mahayev is the only favorite of the three Mohammeds. Wow. So, and frankly, I think there's very much a world where the Muhammad Parley fails because of him and not because of the two underdogs. Wow. I just don't know how to feel about it. I don't know where to go.

My head is telling me Tim Elliott. My heart is telling me gimmick parlay. I haven't solved this. If you have guidance, let me know. otherwise I may just have to ask the magic eight ball. Do we have any magic eight ball bets this week? We have no magic eight ball bets this week. Last week we had the magic eight ball bet on the flyway fight,

the flyway rematch that the names are. Yes, Chares versus Lacerra. Shirez Lacerda, two, the fight we all wanted, and then it fell through. So there were no eight balls last week. I'm not sure which way to go here, Yeah, I mean, that probably means you stay away. I don't want my money on this fight.

You know what that means? It means it's time for the eight ball, Connor. Real time. Here we go. You're about to get a real time magic eight ball. I thought it was always real time. No, no, no. These are, I eight ball prep, you know.

Okay. Real time, though, here. We're going to ask the magic eight ball, magic eight ball, a wise and powerful magic eight ball. Should I bet the Muhammad Parley this weekend at UFC 294 in Abu Dhabi? and the answer is it is certain okay we're not

Ben Timi Elliott then it's the Muhammad Parley wow you now have witnessed history by you have witnessed history the listeners have heard history the Muhammad Parley which is plus 985 by the way

we'll get into the other legs of this coming up but we've established what we're doing now plus 985 a couple underdogs of the other Mohammeds and I got to tell you I don't look Muhammad Yadai Yadai versus Trevor Peak we're about to get into that that feels viable um like live super hate betting against nathania wood um but got to do it got to be done yeah i guess i guess it has to be done

let's keep it rolling right along to another mohammed a lightweight bout mohammed yaya taking on trevor peak he's back baby uh trying to get back in the win column right now trevor peak shitnet minus 162 yaya at plus 136 so I mean it feels like we we just found out what you're going to do here we did and again like I actually do think I probably would stay away from this in general but I think yaya is pretty live here he's not a bad fighter

watch some of his stuff in UAE Warriors he he can scrap a little bit has some failings particularly in the grappling department but I think he, I don't feel terrible about his chances to win. I just wouldn't feel confident about his chances to win either. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm actually with you. I played Trevor Pagan minus 110.

I mean, if he loses, that's just, you know, the luck of the draw. That kind of, kind of wouldn't shock me because he isn't like a technical fighter. He isn't that great of a fighter. But what he is going to do? What he's going to do? He's going to out dog Muhammad, yeah, yeah, here. He's got heart. He's got power.

He's got pace. three, the two P's and an H, you know, power pace heart. P.HP. PHP. I mean, that's what makes up a winning bet. I mean, he's going to turn it into a brawl. There's no, I think Trevor Peek might turn this into a brawl. Trevor Peek is going to turn this into a brawl. One way.

He's willing to eat five to throw a couple standing hammer fists. That's what you know what it's going to be. I mean, this is what is going to happen. And who doesn't enjoy a brawl more than Trevor Peek? Someone who enjoys it much less Muhammad, yeah, yeah. Three losses from my man. Three finishes.

I think the going's going to get tough and the tough's going to get going and the tough is TP Trevor Peak, Ph.P. Power, pace, heart, hand raised. Alabama stand up. Trevor Peak's always fun.

So if nothing else, this is going to be one of the more fun fights on the card. So yeah, it'll be a good time. Yeah, I have that And I have the under two and a half And a little prop parlor I would have been astonished if you weren't on and under on this fight Yeah,

Given the way Trevor Peek What like I love betting under Nine fights are first round finishes or something dumb like that Yeah, I love betting unders with fighters that I know Are just going to get in there and bang Like even if it loses You know it's gonna have a

You feel live You feel frigging live All right let's keep it rolling Next up Bantamweight bow Javi Bosharat taking on Victor Henry and right now Boshraat coming in as a big, big favorite minus 575, Victor Henry coming back at plus 425. I really think this is a great fight. Despite the odds, I think this is going to be a solid fight.

I mean, Victor Henry puts up crazy volume numbers. Like he's, I believe in two of his three fights, he's gone over 150 significant strikes. Like those are big time volume numbers. But I think we have to, you know, let it be known. This is a podcast that proudly faded Victor Henry against our boy, Alfred's very own, Raphael of Sunsalt, just a year ago. I mean, how'd that go for us? The year anniversary was just last year. It went pretty well.

I think it was like a plus 330, plus 350, Raphael of Sunsale. Alfred's very own, look it up. So, yeah, I'm using Javi Boshrat as a parlay piece because I feel like he's just a touch better than Victor Henry. everywhere. I mean, Victor Henry is going to come in here. He's going to be a dog. He's going to put up volume numbers. But I just feel like everything Victor Henry does, Javi Bashrod does, you know, anything you can do, I can do better, just a bit better. I think it's going to be a fun fight. But I think Bashrod, just so defensively sound. He can mix in the takedowns. So Victor Henry has good takedown defense and get up game. It's all it's striking. I just think he's better everywhere. I think he gets it done. I agree that he gets it done.

Honestly, if I was, if I approached this fight card like a reasonable person, I probably would have just taken underdog shots in the main, coming event. And then I would have just gone big, big unload on an Alice Gerov, uh, Basherat Parlay. Not getting a terrific price, but buddy, that's going to cash for you. Instead, what I've done here is, uh, my last same, my last non-parlay piece bet of the weekend. I'm taking Boschrat by decision at minus 150. Henry never been stopped.

Yeah. Incredibly durable, really high on Boschrot. Very, very good fighter. Just, I think Victor Henry is, one, he's going to compete, like you said, put up big numbers. He's going to stay in there every step of the way. And so this is not going to be free reign for Bashrot to just kind of club him. And in a competitive fight, guy as durable as him, I think he makes to the score cards, Boschrat wins, probably 30, 27 straight up.

But, you know, I think he wins back on the cards and minus 150 is a substantially better price than minus 570. Over one and a half is a parley piece for me in my prop parley. Great, great prop parley. That is happening. So, yeah, I feel like we align on this one. Let's keep a rolling middleweight bout. Cedric Dumas taking on Abu Azitar, the return of Abu. Abu right now you can have Dumas for minus 230, a Zytar, plus one.

90. Yeah, hard to trust Dumas at these chalk odds, but I mean, I would say it's even harder to trust Abuazaitar. He has fought twice, twice in the last seven years. He's going to be five inches shorter, three inches reached disadvantage, eight years older than Dumas. I mean, it's not like with the age comes great experience because he's fought two times in the last seven years. So yeah, I feel like this is a Dumas one. Are you betting it? Is he a parley piece? No, I actually bet it at minus 165. But, like, that doesn't help the audience, obviously. It does not. Yeah, I'm just not betting this fight. Yeah.

At this price, I would... I already put a lot of stupid bets down on this card. Why would I bet this one? Betting Dumas is stupid. Like, if I lose, I'll be like, yeah, that's what you get. You... Dumas? Dumbass, is what I will be if I lose on this.

It's low-hanging fruit, but it doesn't mean that fruit isn't a great joke. Yeah, it's great joke. I mean, I'll be at SNL soon. Let's keep it rolling. Lightweight bout and shall Jubilee taking on Mike Breeden. And right now you can have Jubilee minus 298 Breedin plus 240. Your thoughts on this one? My thoughts do not exist. I have zero thoughts on this matchup. I watched absolutely zero tape of Mr. Jubilee. I know that he has fought on the Yeah, this year. Don't remember it at all. I don't either. Didn't stand out. I believe he's a ROC product.

Yep, he is. Indian fighter. Is he the first Indian or second Indian? He's like a pretty, aren't many Indian fighters in the history. Maybe he was the first, he might be the first one who won. Like got the first Indian fighter who got a win that sounds like that might be right. Yeah. Yeah, I got nothing here.

I actually think this line is a little off. I am going to be backing the dog in Mike Breedden. I actually went back and watched a couple of Jubilee's fights. He's not overly impressive to me. He's seven and oh. He's very unproven. He has not fought a great level of competition. And yes, I'm aware Mike Breeden is not a, you know, a wonder prospect.

I'm aware that he has lost three straight. But I hate to do the MMA math thing. I mean, Jubilee probably would have gotten smoked against Breedon's three losses as well. I mean, it's not like he's had an easy run here in the UFC. He comes and takes on Alexander Hernandez on short notice. Yes, he gets put out in the first round. Natan Levy, who, going back and watching it, this fight could play out very similarly to Natan Levy. Jubilee does not have insane finishing capabilities. Like, he's going to decisions with essentially cans out here. Like, I mean, we're talking about, he went to a decision with a five and four guy who's now six and five.

He went to a decision with another five and four guy who's now seven and seven. Like he doesn't have insane finishing capabilities. Went to a split decision on the road to UFC fight. So yeah, I mean, I don't think it's an indictment on Mike Breeden to lose to Terrence McKinney and Ton Levy and Alexander Hernandez. I don't think Jubilee would have fared that well either. Plus, I know Breedon can get finished, but I don't think Jubilee has that finishing capability to put him out because Breedon does have that dog in him. He does have that fight in him. I went back and watched the Levy fight.

Sure. I know what you're going to say. I know what everyone's going to say. It's all sitting on the tip of their tongues right now. They want to scream it to the rafters. He got taken down nine times in that Natan Levy fight. Is that good? Guess what?

Natan Levy with those nine takedowns racked up a whole three minutes of control time. He does have good get-up game. I think he's going to be able to get up. I think he's going to be able to stop some of these takedowns. I think he's going to be able to bring this fight to Jubilee. Like, I just don't think he should be such a massive underdog. I think this fight's going to play out closer, and I think there's a world.

I mean, going back and watching that levy fight, he won the third round clearly, won it clearly, and I think there's an argument he could have made for the second round. I really do. I think the fight's going to play out similarly to that. I think it's closer than the odds say. I'm going with Mike Breeden. Mike Money Breeden as an underdog.

Connor, it's not how many times you get taken down, it's how many times you get up. That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. I'm willing to take the dog shot here. I feel decent about it. I'm definitely not parlaying up jubly at these odds. That's not, that's not something I'm going to do. Let's keep it rolling, though, to a featherweight bout. Nathaniel Wood taking on Muhammad Nymov right now, the prospect, the man, Nathaniel Wood, minus 340, 9-off plus 270. You said you hate going against Nathaniel Wood.

I do, because I just like Nathaniel Wood, cashed on him a little bit. Oh, yeah. Since we started this podcast, Nathaniel Wood, by decision, has just been a money printer. Just a money train. I mean, someone should tell Nathaniel Wood that no-bets barred is the reason he's succeeding, because I think that we can say that comfortably. I took him by decision against Charles Rosa. I mean, it got dicey with those leg kicks.

Took him by decision against Charles Jordane, a beauty. I'm in. My issue is last time out for Naimov, I was on the Jamie Malarkey train. I was like, yeah, Naimov, like, not very good. I get it to Jigistan having a bit of a moment, but like Jamie Malarki, you know, Mercurial fighter, but I think he's got the goods here to beat this guy who's not all that great. And he comes out and just just ruins me that week. That was a tough, tough L to take.

Jamie Malarkey was looking pretty good, too. Yeah, and then this may talk about it. the dog. Naimov's got the dog. Maybe he and Gaffarov. You know, the two Tajik fighters on this card, they deliver, and then I can feel great about these parlays that I've plugged them into. But I don't like betting against Nathaniel Wood.

I do think he's very likely to succeed here. At some point in time, at some point in time, I'm going to question kind of Nathaniel Wood in this weight class. He's pretty small for it. But what we've seen so far has been great. Just great pace, great volume. Mixes the takedowns in with the striking, just doing all sorts of things here that I think should kind of keep

Naimov off kilter for the whole way down. So just to pick, it's wood, but Muhammad Parley, I'm in on Naimov. I tossed wood in a parley. I feel like, I mean, you know, getting dropped by Andre Fili makes me a little bit nervous with Naimov's power. Obviously, that's how he won the Malarkey fight.

but if he avoids the power, I think this is wood all day. Like, I feel like this is a 30, 27 wood. He also did drop Philly, though. Like, there's a world where, you know, he's able to do something to Nymov.

Absolutely wouldn't shock me. Yeah, I mean, I'm going with wood, just in a parlay, no wood by decision, because this could turn into a nasty scrap. This could certainly turn into a nasty scrap. Though, Nymov never been finished.

Wouldn't be the worst play ever been. And it's going to be a lot bigger than wood. in there. Oh, yeah. He's also going from Jamie Malarkey. It's like you're cutting it like in half. That's a big shift in opposition. Yeah, yeah, especially when it comes to the size.

All right, just a couple more fights here. Let's get through these Junufri taking on Victoria Dutakova and a straw wade bout. And right now you can get Dutukova for minus 500. Genufray plus 380. Never thought I'd be throwing Victoria Dutucova in a parlay. But I think that's smart. Yeah, here we are, Genu Frye. She's just not it. She just, she keeps coming back to the well. She's, she's 11 and 9. She's 11 and 9. What's the exact number here? I think she's 2 and 7 in her stint in the UFC. It's not good. Two and five. I'm sorry. Two and five. I'm sorry. Yeah, I mean, she's 14 years older than Victoria Dutakov. She's 11 and 9. She has not finished anyone in almost a decade. 2014 was the last. time she finished someone.

She is just insanely low volume, throws less than three strikes a minute, or lands less than three strikes a minute. She's going to be the smaller fighter here. Like, I just don't really know the path. Like, she's not going to, I don't think she's going to out-volume her. I mean, she could wrestle her. Like, she only needed two takedowns against Gloria DePaula to get one of those wins in the UFC.

But I think we all remember that fight. Of course, everyone, everyone. But I feel like Dutakova is better on the ground than Gloria DePaula. Yeah, I don't know It's a bold statement, but I might agree I just feel like Dutakova is just going to win Yeah, buddy I'm going to shorten up your analysis

With a one of these women is 11 and 9 And the other has never lost to fight One of these women is Neither amateur nor professional Never lost the fight 38 The other woman that's lost nine of them One of these women

She's only fought 20 times One of these women cannot finish a glass of water. You know, the other has several finishes on her record. You know, this is me, this is all us leading to the downfall and Genu Fri winning by. She'll win, but the smartest bet this weekend is a Basharat Alaskarov due to Kofa parley. That's like the safest, chalkiest parley that can be put together. Why are you doing this to me?

You're jigsing me right now. Do you have that parlay? Of course I do. I've had it for like, I've had it for like a week and a half. it for like a week and a half. It's a terrific parley. I took it at minus 105. I think it's a great parlay. Minus 105. It's an incredible parlay at minus 105. I mean, I got an incredible price on it. I think it's a great parlay and like we have now sold a Genufri, TKO win. Just to kill us right from the start. Yeah, that's going to suck. I'm sorry. I didn't realize that you had that.

What do you mean you didn't realize that? It's the chalkiest dumpster's stupid better square parlay. Of course I had it. Sometimes I forget that you, that that's your brand. Yes, despite me winning units, I do it in the most square fashion of all time. Hey, it works out. This is a parlay that's going to get you to 100 units overall.

I know, people, like, I post my picks and people are, like, a lot of chalk. I'm like, yes. Like, have you not been here for the last two and a half years? I love that comment, too. It's like, yeah, I don't know, man. Vegas seems to know what they're doing.

So, like, it's probably better to just side with Vegas in the aggregate. It's just like, who gives a fuck? If I'm winning, why does it matter if it's chalk or dog or whatever? All of that matters is that I'm winning. Style points, you know. Winning isn't winning. Yeah, winning is only cool if you're doing it on plus money plays.

I always forget that. I always forget that on gambling Twitter. It's only cool if it's a plus money play. I saw one guy being like, oh, let's go, like big cash on like a minus 165. and he won like three. He won like three units off of it. Like the top comment was just like, bro's blood celebrating a minus 165 win.

It's just like, dude, he won. It's lame. It's lame. It's all about style points, baby. All about style points. All right, let's keep you rolling. Last fight on the card. Speaking of style points.

Little guy that's got style here, middleweight belt, Bruno Silva, taking on the debuting Sharabooten Bullet Magammedov. And right now, you can have Sharra bullet minus 258, Brunas Silva coming back at plus 210. Yeah, I mean, am I a sucker? Am I just like the biggest sucker on planet Earth?

Because like if you just go look at this guy. I mean, you talk about looking the part. The dude looks like an evil villain. He's got the one eye going. Like he's got the like he's got the, like he does. So he is kind of an evil villain. He does the pictures in like the ropes. Like it looks like Mortal Kombat.

Go on his Instagram and find the picture where his forearms are wrapped in ropes. It's his topology photo. You could just click on his topology photo. It's his tapology photo. That's incredible. I mean, he's a scary looking dude. He's also 11 and 0 with 10 wins by knockout. And like, I don't really know too much about these modified rules.

Like, it's like a 30, you can only be on the ground for 30 seconds or something. They're kickboxing about belts, basically. Kickboxing belts. Well, that's another thing. He also has more experience, K1 experience. Yeah, I mean, he's a pretty, he has potential. Like, an incredibly good prospect. Yes.

And he's fighting a dude that's game, as game as they come. I mean, Bruno Silva is not someone really to play with, 20 wins, by knockout. Like, I have a feeling that this is going to be a scrap. And, uh, yeah, I'm back in, I'm back in the bullet. I'm a sucker. Like, that's, that's all it is. I mean, I'm back in.

You know the Magamatoff Parlay supports this. I'm back in the bullet. Like, it's just like, I want to be on it. He's, he looks, he looks the part. He looks like a scary ass dude. Um, and like Bruno's down to engage. We know that. And lately he's been getting got one and three in his last four.

got teed off on by Gerald Mearschart just got finished by Brendan Allen I think these dudes come in here I think they throw down and someone probably gets finished I did throw that's the last leg of my prop parlay is the 102 and a half but I think it's going to be bullet getting them out of there

yeah I'm with you I think I am going to push push in on the Magamatov Parlay and I'm not going to do the Combat Sambo World Champion Parlay because four legs is just it's never succeeded in life, and at least the Magamadov Parlay. I can do the Muhammad Parlay, the Magamatov Parlay,

and the 12 days short notice, top 15, the World Upper Weight Class Parlay. So three parles is enough parlaying for any fight card, in my opinion. I have three parles as well. And I think that's it. We've done. We've solved it. I think we've done it.

We've established all of the good bets. Any other bets on this fight card are bad and not quality? UFC 294. I'm going with Shara Bullitt Money Line. Mike Breeden Money Line, Big Dog. S.D. Dumas money line, Trevor Peak Money Line, Sayyne Maghamedov money line. Uncle I have Walker under two and a half. Say your prayers before that one.

Hamzat Shemayev inside the distance. You talked me in to an Alex Wokonovsky inside the distance plus 500. And then the parlays are Dutukova, Basharot, Alaskarov, minus 105. And then Wood, Alaskarov, Shemayev, plus 104. did the double up there on our boy, Iqrum. And then the props ski, Silva Magamatov under two and a half, Basharat Henry over one and a half, peak, yeah, yeah, under two and a half. That pays out a plus 149.

I'm on Volka, Newsman, as underdogs, Uncle I've inside the distance, Bosch by decision, prop bets on Volk inside the distance as well, and Usen by decision. And then the three parlay is that we've gone over several times. So not going to have a lot of action here. I got a lot of action. I got eight bets and eight singles and three parlayas.

I'm not going to lie to you. I use Ben-MMA tips to track my bets. And they give like very in-depth stats on your history. Not a great money line better. Maybe we'll start do that. It's nice. It's nice, yeah. Yeah, I'm not a great money line better.

My hay is made with parlays and props. I think I always knew that, which is bad news. A way better money line bet. I'm a prop better. Yeah, my first five bets of the night are all money lines. So I'll actually, let me pull up the last thing before we go here, the stats, the specific stats on it. Yeah, straight picks.

I'm down 20 units. Stop betting straight. Honestly, and I have way too many straight bets. Props, I am up 17 units, and parley's, I am up eight units. this is all MMA-specific you know the only shitty

the only shitty part about it is it is bet MMA tips so you can't track boxing can't track any other combat sports can't track live can't track same game parlays and you can't track hedges either so like

it's not fully not all the way fully like tracked everything I've done that I obviously do on the show but yeah it is a very solid like it's nice to see like Oh man, I suck at just like straight up money lines. 48 and 59 in the year.

Hopefully I do better this week. Hopefully I do better this week. Shout out to better my tips. I'm 47 and 38 on parleyes. I'm kind of proud of that. You should be. Look at you just chalking it up. Chalk soup's just killing it for you.

This is how in depth it is. My average odds on parley's minus 108. I was going to say minus 115. People shit on me for chalk? Overall stats? My average base. bet is minus 103. I thought it'd be worse.

I thought it'd be worse. I mean, look, you're doing great. It's going to be lower after this week. I can promise you that because there's a lot of minus signs. A lot of minus signs. You had a couple of dogs there at the back. Actually, the bulk inside the distance plus 500 and the Mike Green and plus 333. It's probably going to bring us back.

Either way, that's UFC 294. I am excited for this one. It's nice to have a pay-per-view back. I'll be on the watch party with my man Mike Heck on Saturday. Big times. Early watch party. Oh, I love it. I love it.

I cannot tell you, London, Abu Dhabi, sign me up. Like, we're getting out of here like five o'clock. You can go get a pint afterward and join myself, relax. It's not getting home at 2.30 in the morning. And just, like, feeling like a zombie the next day. Plus, the most important thing. The real reason I'm not that into this fight card this weekend. Tell me.

I mean, look at what we've got next weekend, Connor. Once the watch party is over, it is officially U.S. South Paulo Fight Weekend. let me tell you. Jelton Almeida, Derg Lewis? I'm about to break your heart. We have an off week. Oh, there's an off week. Oh, God. Well, then that's just two weeks.

Yeah, two weeks. Two weeks. Jelton Almeida, Derek Lewis. That means I can go to Brazilian Steakhouse twice in preparation for it. Gabriel Bonfine, Nicholas Dalby, your co-main event? I hate to do it. This is the return to Brazil we all wanted right here. I hate to do it, and I shouldn't do it, but you know what we have to do.

But you know what we have to do. doing the Dalby fight. I mean, betting Dalby? Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Danish Dynamite, Brazilian killer.

We have to bet them. I mean, I'm sorry. Well, that's easy. Then you, you have two pre-made bets for two weeks now

because God knows who you're betting in the main event. Yeah, I mean, Jelton inside the distance. The bet's probably been in since the moment

Derek Lewis stepped in. I was actually, no, I was actually pretty heavy on Jelton against Curtis Blades at like minus 160. But then the moment

Derek steps in, And there's like bet. Yes, parlay pieces galore, jailton round one, the unders. Fight doesn't go to a decision. I mean, I will be so heavily exposed on that. I can't wait. Screw that, though. We got the week off in Ghanu Fury to kill the time, and it would be Georgia, Florida.

Right. The biggest upset in sports history is about to happen. I am. Biggest bet of the year on Tyson Fury. I'm back in Ghanu. I'm doing it. Took him at minus 400, and I just kept putting more and more on it. So, yeah.

I'm back in Inganu. Got several, several hundred. I'm all, I'm not all in on Inganu, but I'm doing it for the bit. Puncher's chance. It's not even realistically that, but. I mean, that's all he has. That's all he has. If that.

But it's just, there's been a really weird year in combat sports. A lot of really funny, stupid things have happened. That would be the funniest stupidest thing. Inganu knocking out Tyson Fury well, he already has a bulk, fight booked with Alexander Rusick. That would be the. funniest thing. So that, I said this, I think it was on BTL a few weeks ago. The day they announced that is the day I officially sold myself on, on Inganu, because there's no reason Inganu should win

except for the fact that chickens have been counted. Yeah, yeah. And this is, you can't make those plans. You just can't. You can't do it, dude. You can't. I actually, like, I was a little bit nervous about my Tyson beer bet and I can't cash it out. Actually, it's like seven separate bets, because I was just like, why isn't this line moving? Like, why isn't this line moving? I have to keep putting on while it's still here. Yeah, I mean, you can't make those plans, but I don't see it. I mean, yeah, no reasonable world where it happens, but maybe we live in an unreasonable world, Connor.

We do, we do. And I actually will say if I have to rip up all those tickets for the cause of Francis and Ganu knocking out Tyson Fury and just absolutely imploding the entire world. It'd be so funny. It will be the funniest thing of all the time. I'll do it. I'll do it. I'll rip it up. I'll rip it up. I think I'm glad

you're willing to make the sacrifice because the sheer amount of joy I'll get from the the Inganu haters who you know all year, you fumbled the bag. You screwed up. Oh my God. Can you imagine the crow those people will have to eat? As a man who very has a very real chance

of having to get off the internet after Saturday because of things I've said, those people will have to dig a hole and just lie down if the biggest upset of all time happens. Oh, my God. I mean, he's already won. Like, he got this fight. He's already won.

But, man, if he does it, also, it would be so funny, too, because I got to be honest with you, if he knocks out, if he somehow pulls it off, man, the PFL, I don't think we're ever going to see Francis fighting in the smart game. They're great coup. They're great signings. Are we going to see anyone from these signings?

Jake Paul, Amanda Serrano, Francis and Gano. They love making announcements. BFL loves making announcements. They don't love making fights. Look, they can't for Francis yet. And they never will if he wins because the minute he knocks out Fury rematch Usick, Joshua. They all come running for the business.

That would be so fucking. That would be insane. Oh, I love it so much. If you're not hype for this fight, just go watch the plethora of promos that they keep releasing. Dude, they're so good. Dude, they have, like, an insane budget for those promos. They're so good. They're so good.

I wish the UFC could make something like 10% as good as those because they are. They're incredible. All right, that's UFC 294. We won't have a podcast next week because it's only in Ganu Fury. But we'll be back. UFC Sao Paulo, Jailton, Almeida, Mena. event against Derek Lewis. Can't wait for that one. See you then. Love y'all.