MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Arnold Allen Upset Max Holloway At UFC Kansas City To Earn A Title Shot?

Episode Date: April 12, 2023

With the UFC headed to Kansas City this week, the No Bets Barred boys are back to break down their favorite bets for Max Holloway vs. Arnold Allen, and the rest of the fight card. Co-hosts Conner Burk...s and Jed Meshew begin the show by recapping the madness that was UFC 287, and Israel Adesanya's remarkable title victory, before Connor makes a tragic announcement about his gambling future. Then the fellas dive into UFC Kansas City, which Jed will be in attendance for, taking A LOT of shots on underdogs this weekend, plus the return of Flyweight Unders and the hottest new thing in MMA betting: the ChatGPT Bet of the Week. Tune in for Episode 41 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Starting point is 00:00:56 Book direct and save at bestwester.com. media podcast network. On y'all, we are back. It is another edition of No Betts Bar this time. UFC, Kansas City, the blessed versus the almighty Max Holloway taking on Arnold Allen. And rumor has it. I cannot confirm or deny this, but I think someone close to the pot here can. We will have boots on the ground in Kansas City.
Starting point is 00:01:44 We will, Jedmishu, Mn MFI.com, great website, will be in attendance. Kansas City at the T-Mobile Center to watch. You know, Connor, I feel like an idiot right now, because until you gave that intro, I never once thought, oh, this is Max Blessed Holloway taking on the Almighty. How can a man who is blessed by the Almighty defeat the Almighty? We'll get into that and more on this edition.
Starting point is 00:02:13 No, that's part. Yeah, I mean, honestly, I feel like we swung and missed, not just doing this the day after 287 on Easter Sunday, and we just get the blessed versus the Almighty, and we just really take that theme with it. We, a lot of mistakes are made. We'll get better. We'll grow from this.
Starting point is 00:02:29 We'll improve for the next time out. Yeah, I mean, before we recap 287, I just have to say I am like so, so hyped for this main event. Like, I cannot wait for it. Arnold Allen, undefeated in the UFC, 10 and 0, second longest active winning streak in the UFC right now going up against obviously former featherweight champion max holloway one of the most exciting fighters in the octagon like i i can't wait for this one same i mean the the main event is electric that's part of the reason i'm i'm going part of the reason i'm so excited
Starting point is 00:03:05 about going and look maybe i'm coming to this with you know the the rose-colored glasses of a man who will be sitting cage side. But I think the rest of this card is decent. I'm not here to say it's great. No, it's decent, dude. I'm excited for it. But there are matchups here that are at least interesting in their own way. A couple of live dogs we'll get into.
Starting point is 00:03:27 Oh, there's a couple of dogs. And when it's capped off by a main event of this quality, this is a weekend. I'm pretty happy to be an MMA fan. I've got two bias bets and two revenge bets. so I don't know what could possibly go wrong there. I love revenge. You're going to have to be on one of them.
Starting point is 00:03:47 And that's all I'm going to say about that. We'll get into it when we get there. You're going to have to be on one of them. Let's go back to UFC 287 though. You said Israel out of Sonia round one K.O. I said Israel out of Sonia round three KO. He met in the middle. What idiots.
Starting point is 00:04:06 What idiots we are. And got round two. You know, I felt so stupid by saying round 1-KO as that fight was playing out. I was like, I'm just an idiot. He's come out here. He's doing, is indifferent, but it's still, there's just not going to be enough collisions for this to happen. And then, damn, if it didn't happen, you know, four minutes later, I was like, ah, it's just too aggressive. I was too aggressive.
Starting point is 00:04:32 The moment, the arrows, the going for the kid, the scene. speech afterward. I mean, everything. It was, it was definitely one, however you feel about it, whoever you were cheering for, it is absolutely one of the defining moments in UFC history as, as we move forward. That is one that we are going to look back on. And it's going to be one of those, like, I remember when that happened. I remember where I was at. I remember what I was doing there. Absolute insanity from Israel, Adasania, to get the belt back. Yeah. Just scenes. It's the moment of the year probably going to hold on to that. Gonna be tough to top.
Starting point is 00:05:11 And we're talking about a year that's had some big moments. I mean, who who can forget Valentina Shivchenko getting robbed. Yeah, yeah, robbery. An absolute highway robbery getting submitted by Lexa Grasso. So some big moments this year, but that is certainly among them. So I mean, dude, fun card. felt like the crowd was there. Our Jorge Bet never had a hope. No chance. It was just, it was as the week went on, I like kept trying to talk myself into it. I was like, it's going to happen.
Starting point is 00:05:48 But like, the more I kept trying to talk myself into it, and the more I saw of him as the week went on, I was like, he's just, he's just going to get worked out there. And that's kind of what happened. He hung tough, didn't get finished. But like, was never live for a finish. never really presented any real danger to Gilbert. And that was kind of that. Just sort of another one of those, it just falls right into the bin with Jared Van dera by sub. You know, yeah, never happened.
Starting point is 00:06:17 I did have a couple of overbets, so. Nice, that is nice. I was very happy that he just hung tough. Tough dude. Hard to finish. But yeah, pretty early on. Certainly, the first round was competitive until the end of it. I mean, it wasn't compelling.
Starting point is 00:06:33 but it wasn't, no man was running away with it. And then Gilbert kind of just puts a stamp on it at the end. And the moment that happened, I was like, well, this is done. This is how this fight is going for now on. So chalk it up as an L. I had a lot of nerves for the main event. Did not feel confident about the Izzy bets down at all with the walkout. When Perrero showed up to the arena in the John Wick suit, I was like, oh, God.
Starting point is 00:07:03 I've made a terrible mistake. That's tough. Rob Funt, unbelievable. Showing from that. My boy had a tough one. My boy had a tough scene. That was incredibly impressive stuff from Rob Fon. Kelvin Gassel.
Starting point is 00:07:17 I'm back in the wind column. Chris Curtis. Chat G.P.T. baby. Shout out to the chat. G.P.T. Beck, Chris Curtis, not happy about it. He is letting people know on Twitter. You should let him know chat GPT. Said he was going to lose.
Starting point is 00:07:27 And that did come to fruition. Blame the machines, Chris Curtis. It's their fault. Joe Piper, your guy. Hard to not be his guy after his appearance on the MMA hour yesterday. Hard to not be his guy. I wanted to talk about that because when he's on the hour yesterday, I was watching, I was like, when we record No Betts Barred, there's no way that Pfeiffer is not now
Starting point is 00:07:47 the Connerberg's guy. I mean, the way that he just like, that was, Gerald Mirchart was easily my worst bet in the night, you know. Jorge was bad, but like he at least made it through the decision and like, maybe, maybe. Plus the odds were way jacking. They were way more jack up. The Gerald Mirchart won, I was just like, he's got to take him down. He's just dead.
Starting point is 00:08:09 And then it was just like rocked, curled up over. I was just like, that was a bad bet. That was a terrible bet. Calvio fought for my money. That was nice. Calveo did fight for your money. But she fought for my money. But she scrapped it up.
Starting point is 00:08:24 Yeah, fun card. It was a winning week for me on the UFC, but I got reverse sweeped on PFL. And I'd like to come on to No Bet's Bar today. this Tuesday, April 11th when we're recording this and just make an announcement, a declaration, done. Done betting on PFL. We're banning the PFL.
Starting point is 00:08:44 You're wearing a PFL shirt. I feel like you're almost, I feel like you're taunting me. I think you're mocking me. Yeah. I'm actually, I'm going to extend it. I'm going to extend it. PFL and Bellator off limits for me.
Starting point is 00:08:58 Bellator. Catching strays. Just going UFC. just going UFC until I can write this ship. It's the promotion that I know the most about that I can get the deepest on tape study that has the most statistics. It has been my most profitable promotion.
Starting point is 00:09:16 By far, I'll make my return to PFL once we get into the playoffs, once we get into the championships. That's interesting. I understand it. Watching Aspen Ladd, that's what made me do it. That's what made me do it. I stopped watching the card after the Aspen Ladd fight.
Starting point is 00:09:31 I was just like, nope can't do this i cannot do this anymore that was just so frustrating to watch and uh yeah killed two bets it i mean it's my own fault listen i'm not blaming anyone but myself for trusting aspen lad with my money that is completely on me i just like i wanted to put that out in the universe and i went to bed i had pacheco inside the distance too got a great line deep in line movement i was like oh man felt good about that but after the aspen lad performance i was like i'm getting reverse sweep there's no doubt. Pacheco by decision is now a lock. Go to bed, wake up the next morning,
Starting point is 00:10:04 Pacheco, Warrick by decision. I was like, it's it, I'm done. I gotta swear it off for now. That's a shame. I don't have much PFL action this week, but there is one bet that I do like, so I'll lead us off. I'll just put this out here. Put it out there, please. And then we can move away from PFL. We don't have to make you relive it.
Starting point is 00:10:20 I get the Twitter notifications from Best Fight Odds and Fight Odds.com. So I know when odds drop, they drop the PFL three lines, and I was just like, Not get this out of you. That is a not even going to look. A responsible young man. But I do like the Shane Burgos straight up. He's in a slight underdog to Olivier Aldele-Marcier.
Starting point is 00:10:42 Is the fight in New York? 15. I'm interested in Mr. Shane Burgos coming into this season. I think he's got a real good chance to take the Millie. And so I'm here on this one. Yeah, I mean, coming from the UFC, like you have to have a little bit of confidence. and him going against OAM. I would feel much more confident
Starting point is 00:11:01 if it was Big Apple Burgos. If this was taking place in New York City, then you could get me off the bench here and get back into the game for PFO. Legendary fighter, Big Apple Burgos. I can't wait for the PFL at some point to go to New York with him. Legendary.
Starting point is 00:11:17 All right, that was UFC 287. That was PFL2 last week. And now we dive in, UFC Kansas City. We mentioned at the top, the Blessed, versus the Almighty. Main event, featherweight bout, Arnold Allen. Max Holloway feels like if Arnold Allen gets this done,
Starting point is 00:11:38 he's next in line for a title shot after Volcanovsky, yeah, here. A thousand percent. If he beats Max Holloway and doesn't get a title fight, something's up. Something is wrong with this world. And I, you know, I've become the resident hater of Alexander Volkinovsky somehow. And I'm okay with it.
Starting point is 00:11:55 It's a, I didn't choose this. life. This life chose me. But I think even Alexander Volcanovsky will have to acknowledge that his his desperate attempts to get another lightweight title fight rest entirely on Max Holloway to be victorious. Because if Max gets a win and Volk can beat Yair, then maybe he does get to get himself back to a lightweight title shot. But if he doesn't, if Arnallin wins, I think even Volk has to admit, well, that's that's next business after I deal with Yairair. Yeah, there's no question of who the clear number one contender is. He'll be 11 and 0 in the promotion at that point, and 20 and 1 overall with some huge wins.
Starting point is 00:12:37 Now, when it gets to the fight itself, I mean, we mentioned it last week as we were signing off. Arnold Allen, friend of the program, kind of our guy. This is bias bet number one. Love him. Took Arnold Allen, plus money. How does he get it done? He's got it like, where did you get him at? I took him at plus 150, but I don't.
Starting point is 00:12:57 I saw some books with better. Okay. Have you taken them yet? I got him at plus 155 earlier today. Yeah. He is currently sitting at plus 155. Yeah, currently sitting at plus 155. I saw like, I saw one book like plus 170 plus 175 earlier.
Starting point is 00:13:14 I don't know if that's going to like you just keep going up and down. Like these lines have kind of been all over the place this week. Like he has to mix it up. He just can't stand and just box there with Max Holloway. That just feels like it's going to end poorly for him. got to get physical. It's a tall task. It's a tall task ahead of Arnold Allen.
Starting point is 00:13:37 Look, it's a tough style matchup in some ways. But I think maybe this is biased me, just being like, here's manifesting what I want to happen. I think he's got ways forward. One, the biggest part to this to me, I feel confident about this. So take that, you know, for whatever it's worth. I think Max Holloway is on the decline.
Starting point is 00:14:00 I think we saw that in the Volcanovsky third fight. And part of that is certainly Alexander Volkinovsky is a bad style matchup and an unbelievable fighter. But I also think a piece of that is that Max's lost his fastball a little bit. And that's what happens. He's been in this game a long time. And look, he beat Yaiyir Rodriguez, but Yaiyir took a piece of him that night because that's what happens in fights like that.
Starting point is 00:14:28 I think the miles are just adding up. And so he's slowing up a bit, which is an ideal opportunity for Arnold Allen, who I think you said it, physical is the right word. He needs to be, he can't box with Max Holloway, but he can throw big,
Starting point is 00:14:45 heavy counter shots when Max Holloway is trying to get his game going, mix and takedowns, clinch work, physicality, and just wear on this guy who's got a lot of miles on him. So I was like I said, I'm on him and I feel okay about it.
Starting point is 00:15:00 And I'm also backing Arnold Allen by decision numbers plus 3.30. If he wins, I would be pretty shocked if he gets Max Holloway out of there. If he does, then incredible. But Max Holloway has been finished once in his career. Unbelievably durable dude. I doubt Arnold is getting him getting a finish. So getting all that extra juice on the by decision, I doubled up. Yeah, I don't see a world where he gets him out of there. I was watching some tape and I was like,
Starting point is 00:15:31 he used to throw up some, some front choke, some guillotine. I was like, maybe, like, maybe I burn some money on another sub prop. I was like, nah, I don't think that's what's going to happen. And if they're, if they're standing in trading, it's a hard world to imagine someone getting Max Holloway out of there like that. I'm with you, though, like you got to apply a lot of pressure. I would love to see him use the clinch. I would love to see him mixing a takedown or two. We have seen him do it in the past. But like the game plan cannot be to just go out there and try and fight at range with Max Holloway. I mean, no matter how over the hill you think he is, that still won't work out well for on an island, in my opinion.
Starting point is 00:16:10 Yeah, and I don't think that will be the game plan. I think he's going to mix it up and recognize that Max has a good take down defense, but it lessens as the fight wears on. You can get him down. And so I think you can't be afraid. exchange on the feet, but you, you've just got to be a comprehensive mixed martial artist. You got to bring everything. You got a difference on point. And you can't let Max get rolling because once Max gets that head full of steam, it's tough.
Starting point is 00:16:38 Then he's grabbing your hands and he's telling you he's the best boxer in the UFC and he's giving lessons in the fourth round. Confidence out of, yeah. So I think we're going to see a lot of low kicks from Arnold Allen, a lot of chopping the tree down, a lot of big heavy counter shots, trying to disrupt Max from building too much of a rhythm, take downs, clench work, physicality, and a new contender. Because look, I've been on this corner for a minute. I think Arnold Allen's the next featherweight champion.
Starting point is 00:17:05 I think he is the guy who's going to beat Alexander Volcanoves. Got a huge task ahead of him this weekend. Huge. But I'm riding with Almighty. If you're going to say anything about Arnold Allen, the dude is in shape. The dude is in crazy shape. The whole family is all about physical fitness. I don't worry about him lasting over the five rounds here.
Starting point is 00:17:24 And like another thing that's just crazy, just going back and not only watching tape on the guy, but just breaking down his record, like he is 19 and 1. He is 10 and 0 in the UFC. Like this guy wins fights a lot. He's so good. And he, it's fitting. Like, you know, you saw, I don't know if you saw the images of him, but, you know, training with Leon Edwards and Ian Gary.
Starting point is 00:17:51 It's fitting because in a lot of ways He's Leon Edwards, right? Like he is, this guy is on an infinite fight win streak. Like what's 12 fights in a row, 10 in the UFC or something like that? And he's still in a position where he has to win one to get a title fight where fans are like, well, I don't care that he's won 10 in a row. Volcanovsky doesn't have anybody to fight.
Starting point is 00:18:14 He's cleaned out the division. I don't know, maybe fight the guy who's literally never lost in the UFC in your weight class and just beat a top fight. guy in Calvin Cater. Just not, doesn't get the respect he deserves, and I'm hoping that this weekend he gets a win that's unimpeachable, that nobody can decry, can be like, ah, doesn't, just like, all right, Arnold Allen's here, time to give this man his proper, and let him fight for a belt. Yeah, and I mean, I love that we're getting this matchup.
Starting point is 00:18:41 I think it's going to be incredible and maybe wouldn't be back. I guess I probably would be because it's just a bias, but Arnold Lallon is our guy. I like that we're getting dog money on them. I think that's probably, I thought it would be a little bit closer, but I think it is probably correct with everything that Holloway has done in his career. And you mentioned by decision. So what you're going to help me with as we move through this podcast, I'm building a pacifist parlay, the classic C-Burks,
Starting point is 00:19:10 the classic C-Berks move, getting back to my roots, a little over one and a half parlay. We're starting here. This is leg one. I mean, if you want me to break it down. have this in a parlay that's not all the way built that I likewise was hoping you might help. I need a third leg. I got two legs that I feel rock solid, but I need one more leg to complete the pyramid. Yeah, right now it's sitting at sitting on minus 550 and like to me that's just,
Starting point is 00:19:37 that's just a bingo parlay piece. Like minus 550, perfect number for a parlay piece. Alan, before his last two fights, you know, obviously the injury with with Calvin Cater and then just bum rushing Dan Hooker in front of that London crowd. Eight UFC fights all went over the one and a half. Max, seven straight fights have gone the distance in five round affairs. 13 straight over the one and a half. Really like that as a parlay piece. Think this one goes long.
Starting point is 00:20:04 I think it more than likely goes to a decision. I've seen that over four and a half number is coming down. Like I think it opened at minus 175. I want to say last I saw it was like minus 130 or something. That feels like it's coming down. If at any point I got goes to a decision, like right now it's like minus 120. If that got to plus money for some reason, I would definitely take a little poke on that as well. I mean, honestly, yes, a thousand percent in agreement.
Starting point is 00:20:33 If it's that, I think overwhelmingly likely this is going to the scorecards. And it's certainly going to go over three and a half. You know, we're talking late in for this. So yeah, I'm with you on the one and a half. stole the classic C-Berkes parlay piece. I may have one other leg that maybe we share. We'll see. But yeah, I'm all over this fight right now.
Starting point is 00:20:59 I have action tied into this. I have five very solid options. I think I've got two that I've locked in and then I'm looking to add a third from the last three options. But I'm doing a three-legged. I think three legs is pristine. I hope I'm excited to hear yours so I can find the one that I like the best to see.
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Starting point is 00:22:02 Next up, let's keep it rolling to the co-main event of the evening. Billy Q, getting back in the octagon after a big win over Alex Hernandez back at UFC 282, I believe it was, a back and forth affair that it looked like. Billy Que is going to get finished at one point, but he does come out victorious. Right now, you can get Billy Que is the favorite, minus 175 up against Edson Barbosa, Barboza going at plus 150. Get him out of the way fast. Just get him out of the way quick. This is bias bet number two for me. I have been a Billy Q backer for a couple fights now. He's cost me, but he's also won me. Great on MMA Twitter. And also, he's just the volume king. I mean, he just, he's going to
Starting point is 00:22:47 who put strikes out there. He is going to be the more active fighter in almost every fight that he's in. Almost eight strikes landed per minute, 7.88. The most, the most in featherweight history. I went back and watched that Bryce Mitchell, Mitchell, Mitchell, go four for four in takedowns. I don't know if we're going to see Billy Que go for takedowns, but he has done it before. Like it wouldn't shock me. He found some success on the feet against Sets and Barbosa. I think Billy Q can do the same. He is tough as nails, man. We have seen him eat. some huge shots. Keep moving forward. If you go back and watch that Burgos fight, like, oh my gosh, was that a banger? He ate some big shots from Burgos, went through the fire last
Starting point is 00:23:27 time out. I think he's tough. I think he can survive whatever Edson has for him. And I think he's going to outpoint him with that volume, weaponize that volume and get it done by decision. I had a lot of, a lot of tough, tough reads on this fight. Because I really, it's two, I got two minds here, right? Like, we just saw a fight pretty similar to this last week, in my opinion, the Faunt Yanez fight. This is a massive step-up in competition for Billy Q as far as I'm concerned. And last week, I was on the Billy Q side of things, right? You know, I took Adrian Yanez as the favorite and got the hand bit, got the hand bit. I like this comparison. I, Barbosa, if you look at his resume and certainly his record lately, killers. It lots of
Starting point is 00:24:16 of losses. A lot of losses against killers, though. He has been fighting the best guys possible. Oh, yeah. He is one of the most insane resumes just looking at quality of competition. Not taking out wins and losses, just who he's fought better than like a ton of UFC champions currently, like for a decade, a decade of just fighting hitter to hitter. The worst guy he's fought is Makwan Amir Kani.
Starting point is 00:24:46 who's like at least quality, and he defeated Makwara Mirkani. So this is, I like Billy Que. I think he's a fun fighter. He is definitely not on the level of the guys, in my opinion, on the level of the guys that Edson has lost to. So this would, to me, be the worst loss kind of of Edson's career. But at 37, a lot of mileage, a lot of beatdowns, and the book is out on him.
Starting point is 00:25:12 There's a pretty clear way to attack him, and Billy Q can do that. I don't feel great about it. Here's the thing that ultimately set my bet for me. Tell me. It's a statistical factoid about Billy Q. He gets hit a lot. Oh, for sure.
Starting point is 00:25:29 Statistical defense is 40%. That's really bad. And if you, that bears out if you just watch, because he's throwing so much volume, he is, he is making chaos. He gets hit a lot. And you don't want to get hit by Edson Barbosa at all. I didn't want to take Barbosa straight. I didn't think there's enough juice on that. So I'm throwing a half unit shot on Barbosa by K.O.
Starting point is 00:25:52 Wow. Plus 375. Wow. I was a little shocked to see Barbosa by KO is plus 375 just because of how much Billy Q does get hit. And if Barbosa lands a big one, I think it will be lights out. You know, if I'm just picking straight up, my guess is that Billy Q, like you said, kind of overwhelms them. just keeps bringing the pressure because that has been a weakness for Barbosa. But the defensive questions plus 375 is a big number, just a little half unit on it.
Starting point is 00:26:26 Just like to give some respect to some Barbosa because like I cannot disrespect anyone for taking him as a dog here. Yeah, he's three and seven in his last 10. But if you just look at these losses, Bryce Mitchell, Giga Chikaze, Danny Yeh, Paul Felder, Justin Gage, Kevin Lee, and Habib, Mabeevib, Mugamette off. That's a lot. It's a lot of guys that are very good. Not a single one of those dudes, can you shame someone for losing to?
Starting point is 00:26:53 I mean, like, he's, he fought and beat Benile Daryy. And his wins. Like, beat Dan Huggers. Beat Shane Burghers? I was just talking about. He beat Dan Hooker. Binnie Daryush. About to have a lightweight title shot, Bini Daryush.
Starting point is 00:27:06 Anthony Pettis. Last loss before, the ones I just mentioned, Tony Ferguson, Michael Johnson. Also, beat Paul Feldier. and the split that he lost to Paul Felder, I thought he won. I also thought he beat Dan Igay and the split he lost to Dan Igay in his featherweight debut. Like he has... Bobby Green.
Starting point is 00:27:25 His last two performances have been tough. Giga ran over him and so did Bryce. And so the question is, does he still have his fastball? And he may not. But it's hard to say that, I mean, this is just such... This is a clear step down for him, in my opinion. And a huge step up for... Billy Q. And so it's last week I was on the other side and I was an idiot. So this week I'm trying to
Starting point is 00:27:51 learn. I'm trying to learn. Respect. No, no, no. And it's flipped because I'm a little biased to the Q. You were a little biased to Adrianian. Just just one more time here. Since November of 2020, November 22nd of 2014, Edson Barbosa's opponents. Bobby Green, Michael Johnson, Paul Feldor, Tony Ferguson, Anthony Pettis, Gilbert Melendez, Benil Darius, Habibn Maghamagamatov, Kevin Lee, Dan Hooker, Justin Gajee, Paul Feldar, Dan Igay, Makwan,
Starting point is 00:28:19 Americani, Shane Burgos, Giga, Chikaze, Bryce Mitchell. That is crazy. So, I'm ball, I'm just looking at this quickly. That's five lightweight champions, four in the UFC, Gilbert, Melinda is a strike force. Another two dudes who fought
Starting point is 00:28:36 for the lightweight title are among that. that is an insane run of people. That is his last nine years, every single time he's gone to the Octagon, it has been against a just absolute murderer. Like that is, shout out to Hudson Barboso, man. It's great. Hell of a career. Can't wait to talk about him on damn.
Starting point is 00:28:58 They were good one day. Yeah, absolutely. Let's keep it rolling on the main card, a light heavyweight bout. Dustin Jacoby taking on Osamot Mirza Kanov. Right now you can have Jacoby. this line has, as many of these lines have, this has been coming back. Mersikanov's way pretty heavy.
Starting point is 00:29:13 Jukobi opened at like a minus 2.10. Right now he's at minus 165. Mersikanov coming back plus 140. I thought about playing Jukobi before I saw the lines. At almost 2 to 1, I wasn't really that interested just because Osmott's undefeated. He's knocked out all three dudes. He's fought in the UFC. I understand he's an undersized light heavy weight.
Starting point is 00:29:36 He'll be undersized in this match. of Dustin Jacoby is a fantastic fantastic kickboxer and striker, but I don't know, just at that price tag, I found some other bets that I wanted to make, so I'm just staying away on this one. So I've yet to place a bet because that line movement has kept coming towards MERS
Starting point is 00:29:52 and I wanted to see if it keeps moving that way because this feels like a great spot for Jacoby. If you get Jacoby at like what, like minus 1.30? Like, I don't know if it's going to get that low, but it's been steady dropping. I feel good about him at minus 150. And I still, I'm kind of okay with it.
Starting point is 00:30:09 I've been debating whether I should just take it now in case it pops back up or I keep seeing it drop. There's been one book that's at him at minus 159 since Monday. Hasn't changed yet. Might be off. Yeah, I might keep my eye on that. Like if it gets down to, yeah, like you said, minus 150, minus 145. I might take a poke on Dustin. If it's minus 150, I'm for sure taking a poke.
Starting point is 00:30:36 I may still just go 165 here. I mean, he's looked so good since coming back to the UFC. I thought he should have been. I was betting on Khalil Roundtree as the glory killer. That's what Kalil Rauntree has. No, I remember this. I remember this well because I was on Dustin. Yeah, and I don't think he should have gotten that win.
Starting point is 00:30:56 I felt that I snuck away with one there. And I mean, just look at it. Like, since coming back to the UFC, he should have won like eight in a row or something insane like. that. Just a clean class, you know, classy might not be, but a clean quality kickboxer. And Mersikonov is not, I don't know, I'm not sold on him at all. He's given up some physical advantages here. He's going to be invested in striking against Jacobi, and I think Jacobi's just better at it. So, I mean, that fight against Tafon and Chukui, like, he was down
Starting point is 00:31:34 two rounds than none, no doubt. Because I was. was on Azamot there. And then he got the K-O. Flying me, baby. Let's go. And yeah, you can't discount that. But, like, I just- Dude, he dog-walked Devin Clark.
Starting point is 00:31:48 Like, I just like that second round on. He, he dog-walked to me. I like Jacobi, too. That's, that's New York Rick's, like, guy, guy. I was on him. It is in New York Rick's guy. Yeah, like, I was on him pretty good against, uh, Duw Chung,
Starting point is 00:32:04 Da'an Jung, uh, when I was there in person. And I got like that kind of weird flash knockout, but still first round knockout and cash for us. So yeah, I'm going to keep an eye on that line, see what happens with it. I'm going to wait until tomorrow and I'm going to take it,
Starting point is 00:32:21 whatever it's at. If it's still at minus 165, I'm still going to take it. But I'm going to hope that comes down to 150. I think I might wait all the way until Friday. I might just sit, see what happens. Patient, man. All right, let's keep it rolling on the main car. another light heavyweight bout eye on Kutalaba taking on Tanner Bozer, Tanner Bozer coming down
Starting point is 00:32:41 to 205 in this one, making his debut right now. Kutalaba is minus 125 Bozer plus 105. I played Kutalaba last week and saying that sounds kind of crazy, you know, trusting either of these dudes with your money is a risky affair. I took him at plus 105. Bozer moving down to light heavyweight was never that impressive at heavyweight, not as if Kutalaba has been the most impressive either, but I just think there's a path to victory for him. If you just go back and watch the Nassimento fight that Bozer just had at heavyweight before the move down, he gets taken down every round, he gets controlled for eight minutes. I don't think that should have been a split decision. I thought Nassimento definitely won. One judge saw it 30, 27. And I think that's what Kutalaba can do.
Starting point is 00:33:28 Like, no need to stand and throw haymakers with them, because you're probably just going to get knocked out if that happens. He does have a strong capability to get knocked out. But I think the path of victory is there. Just go in and just blast takedowns early and often. You said something that I could not agree with you more there. And it's how can you possibly trust your money to either of these dudes? And I am on board with that. And so instead what I did is I trusted my money to greater powers than me. I tried. trusted my money to chat GPT. Oh, here it is.
Starting point is 00:34:06 This is it. The chat GPT bed of the week. Let's go. Brilliant idea. I got to say, Connor, I'm sad for you because it's not the... You're about to break my heart. I am about to break your heart. Here's what chat GPT has to say about this particular bout.
Starting point is 00:34:24 As soon as the bell rang, Kudalabba charged forward, throwing a powerful overhand right. Sounds right. Quickly step to the side, avoiding the punch and countering with a swift kick to Kudalabas midsection. Kudalaba stumbled back, but regained his composure through another punch that narrowly missed Bozer's head. Bozer continued to use speed and agility, darting in and out, landing sharp kicks and punches. Sounds like Bozer. Yeah, Kudala. Speed and agility is Tanner Bozer. I think we can all agree. Kudelava tries to keep up with heavy punches and grappling for takedowns.
Starting point is 00:34:58 Well, Boz's quick refurb. reflexes and evasive maneuvers make it difficult to land anything substantial. Great takedown. As the fight wears on, both guys get tired. They show signs of fatigue, but the determination never wavers. Kudelabba does manage to land a few good punches and get a takedown to Bozer. All right. Believe this. But Bozer gets back to his feet and Kudelabba never gains a significant advantage. In the end, the judge's score cards were close, but ten, Tanner Bozer emerges as the victor a hard-fought unanimous decision. Wow, unanimous.
Starting point is 00:35:37 And so the chat GPT bet this week, we are taking Tanner Bozer at plus 105, and we're putting a half unit on Bozer by decision at plus 325. Wow. I thought that'd be a bigger number. I can't lie. I thought it'd be a little bit bigger. Sir and I, but, you know, Cudelaba largely is a get-or-get-gat guy. So I think that's why the number comes down.
Starting point is 00:36:00 if Bozer is going to win. That's what I'm saying. That's why I thought it was... We're only putting a half unit on that. That's why I thought it'd be bigger because Kudalaba is literally get or get got. Like, that's just kind of what he does. It's, uh, it's, I'm, I'm so excited when I was looking at this card. I was like, I definitely don't want to break this fight down because I don't know what the
Starting point is 00:36:19 hell is going to happen in it. I mean, like, the fact that I am trusting a unit of, of my own money with, with, with Kudelaba to follow a strong game plan, a smart game plan. is my own wrongdoing. It's the same thing as betting on Aspen Lad. It's, this is all my fault. But that's what I'm doing here. Well, I'm trusting an algorithm which just told me that Bozer's quick reflexives and evasive maneuvers will make it difficult for Goudelaba to have success. We're not good bettors here. We've, we've said it a million times. We like to have some fun. I'm going to have the most. I got to tell you, the chat GPT bet is my favorite thing I've ever come up with.
Starting point is 00:36:58 it is the most fun every week. I'm praying it goes to a decision and Kutalaba robs him for a split. So you can at least be like we should have it. It would still be fun. Honestly, if it goes to a decision, I think that's fun enough. All right, let's keep it rolling. Main card, men's bantam weight bout. Pedro Munoz taking on Chris Gutierrez.
Starting point is 00:37:18 Right now, Gutierrez is a minus 215 favorite Munoz coming back plus 185. I think this is going to be an exciting fight, dude. kicks galore for both of these guys. I mean, Gutierrez, like, he's fast, he's dangerous, but Munoz is no walkover. Minus 215, I don't know, man. I didn't bet aside here, but to me, it feels like it could be dog or pass. Love that read, because I've taken the dog. I don't blame you at all.
Starting point is 00:37:48 I mean, there's a world where I get around to it. I've been considering it. I don't know if I'm just, like, totally missing the mark here. because I like Chris Gutierrez. Love Chris Gutierrez. I mean, this is, I mean, Munoz has very, very solid boxing and is as committed to the low kicks
Starting point is 00:38:06 as Chris Gutierrez is. And this is a bit of a logical leap making here because there's not a ton to show it on the tape. I'm going to assume that if you are as committed of a low kicker as Pedro Munoz is, you also know how to defend low kicks. That's a big part of your game as well. That makes sense.
Starting point is 00:38:26 And so I think that that's going to really defang Chris Gutierrez in a lot of ways, because he is very much a kicker. And I also just think Pedro Muñoz has a grappling advantage. Underrated on the ground, I think this is a very competitive fight. Maybe Chris Gutierrez should be a favorite, but I don't think you should be up at the minus 200 range. So it's a doggar pass bet for me for sure. And I think there's enough value to take a shot on Munoz.
Starting point is 00:38:52 All right, man. I respect that. I don't know if I'm going to get around. to it, but I like that number. Plus 185 hurts a lot less when you lose on a plus 185. Now, here's one thing I didn't want to throw out to you. A potential for the past fist parley. Munoz, six straight over one and a half, eight of his last 10. Gutierrez, yes, he did get the first round finish over Frankie Edgar last time out, but his eight UFC fights prior to that all went over the one and a half. I don't hate it. I want to hear what else we have
Starting point is 00:39:27 going. I don't want to connect to that one. I don't hate that. Had to make you aware of it. Maybe we can get it into it in a minute. All right. Let's keep rolling on the main card, lightweight bout,
Starting point is 00:39:37 Clay Guida. Your favorite fighter, my favorite fighter, Jed's favorite fighter, Clay Guida. Taking on Haifa Garcia, right now, Garcia can be taken at minus 250,
Starting point is 00:39:49 Guida plus 210. This is Revenge of Bet number one. Oh, good. I'm so excited you said this. I had a feeling you, you had to be on it. It's time to avenge. I'm not on it,
Starting point is 00:40:02 but I want to take my revenge. All right, so I got it. I'm very upset with Clay Guida. I said it earlier in the podcast. I took it at minus 190. That was earlier in the week. These lines are kind of all over the place.
Starting point is 00:40:13 Yes, you know, I do apologize for that, but we're here to avenge the great Scott Holtzman. We're here to avenge the great Jedmishu. And we're here to get it back. I love that energy. I'm not on it just because the number is too high,
Starting point is 00:40:32 but I can be petty. I love revenge. And he's going to win, right? Like, he's, maybe I'll just use Hava Garcia in a parlay. Maybe I'll just parlay him in, instead of a pacifist parlay I'm trying to build. So I love this energy.
Starting point is 00:40:48 I mean, he's younger, arguably a better grappler. I mean, there's going to be some scrambles going on in this fight for sure. And I just, I'm going to forever better. against 41-year-old Clay Gweeda at this point, I just can't back him. Yeah, I'm just out for revenge. That's really it.
Starting point is 00:41:08 I probably wouldn't have backed Hoffa Garcia at minus 190 if it wasn't for that. But we can't. It's definitely a price. We can't just- We can't disgrace the good name of Scott Holtsman. Now, I also wanted to throw out, this is another potential one of the three. This is number two of the potentials for the over one and a half. Garcia we don't really have to worry about. I think it's, I believe it's eight straight. Yeah, just the man's a
Starting point is 00:41:33 decision machine. Decision machine. What we have to worry about is our whole night getting ruined by Clay Guida getting a rear naked choke in the first round or something. I don't, I, so this was one that I was looking at. So we're of a like mind. I wasn't looking at one and a half, so I don't actually know that price. I was just looking at the over, over two and a half. What's, what's the one and a half price? So it hasn't dropped. Yeah, that's another reason. You know, we kind of got some time to work at books that are not available to me. It is sitting at minus 380.
Starting point is 00:42:08 Yeah, I think I like that as the third leg for mine. Okay. All right. Well, we haven't gotten to leg two yet, but I have a feeling we're going to have a similar one for leg two. Potentially. But, yeah, I think I like that price a lot. This fights, like I said, I was considering going over two and a half, over one and a half, love over one and a half.
Starting point is 00:42:30 It was the night before the gathering and all through the house. The host rapid cozy cashmere throw from Home Sense for their spouse. Kids toys for $6.99 under the tree. And crystal glasses for just $14.99 for their brother Lee. A baking dish made in Portugal for Tom and Sue. And a nice $5.99 candle perfectly priced just for you. Happy holidays to all. And to all a good price.
Starting point is 00:42:56 Home Sense. Endless present. perfectly priced. All right, well, let's keep it rolling. Let's move on to the prelims. Another featherway bouts on this card. T.J. Brown is taking on Bill Algio. Signor perfect. Right now, you can have Algio minus 210. T.J. Brown plus 180. Another fight that the line has moved a lot on. I want to say Algeo opened up at like a minus 140 price. I did take Algeo. I think he's more well-rounded. I think he's got the ground game to hang with with TJ Brown going for the takedowns. And I think as the fight goes on, T.J. Brown's going to wear out.
Starting point is 00:43:35 And Bill Algio is going to be able to wear on him. Now the dude has really big finishing capabilities, both dude's tough. I think Al Jio bounces back after the Andre Feele fight and gets it done. I have nothing to disagree with. I have not done any tape study on this. Full transparency, got a little caught up in some other things. had some other stuff I was working on. So there are a couple of, I don't have a lot of prelim action.
Starting point is 00:44:04 There are a couple of spots that I can look at and say, I'm kind of interested. I want to dive a little deeper. I just haven't had the time. My ballpark read would be that Bilagio should get this done, but I'm just gonna trust what you're saying for the time being. All right, here's one more that I wanna throw out to you. This is the third potential, oh, the one that is not locked in.
Starting point is 00:44:26 Over one and a half here, 14, and combined UFC fights for the guys, 13 have gone over the one and a half. Okay, what's that price? Again, not available to me yet, but at books that are not available to me, minus 370. I don't hate that one.
Starting point is 00:44:45 I mean, this one is probably not getting an early finish. I'm thinking, and the only time that Bill Algeo has had the finish was against Herbert Burns, who is Mr. Killer Be Killed. Also, wasn't that a corner stoppage? I believe so, yeah. I mean, I was at that one live.
Starting point is 00:45:07 Herbert Burns was just done. He was just done. And then T.J. Brown has some third and late second round submissions, but mostly decisions. I like that one. I think that's pretty good. I don't like it as much as a Greta Garcia. I love the Guida Garcia one. Oh, you firm on love the Gruey Garcia over one and a half.
Starting point is 00:45:27 I love the Greta Garcia. Wow. I think over one and a half there. I love over one and a half there. Okay. So far I like this one as well. All right. I love the over one and a half in, uh, in,
Starting point is 00:45:39 Arnold Allen versus Max all the way. I love, I love, I, I want to marry that over one and a half. Let me just go, let me just go ahead because it was supposed to be the last fight we were going to talk about. I'm just going to get out of the way. My second leg that I'm for sure doing is the Jocelyn Edwards, Lucy Pudolova. Let's go, baby. Of,
Starting point is 00:45:57 Of course. 12 of their combined 13 UFC fights gone over the one and a half. Like it's it's there. We're probably going to pay a price tag of like minus 600, minus 700. I don't care. I'm just going to take them over two and a half. That's probably one and a half.
Starting point is 00:46:10 It's, uh, Connor, I look, I did, I did the leg work. Well, one,
Starting point is 00:46:14 all five of Jocelyn Edwards fights have gone to decision inside the UFC. Eight of the last 10 for Pudilova gone to decision. Six of eight inside the UFC have gone to decision for Pudlova. It's a lot of decisions. But Connor, I dug deeper. I did even more. Do it.
Starting point is 00:46:29 Tell me. I looked at every women's ban and weight fight that happened last year. There weren't that many of them. But it took a while to figure out how many there were. Connor, last year there were 12 women's band. I'm sorry, 13 women's band-and-weight fights last year. Wow. Such a rare beauty.
Starting point is 00:46:49 It is. They don't happen all the time. You only give them as often as you get a UFC pay-per-view. 13 band-whip. You get one a month, Basically. And eight of them ended up going to decision. If you add in featherweight bouts, too, as the women's featherweight, it's a big number.
Starting point is 00:47:07 They're all going to the scorecards. It's just how they go. Eight of 13, though. What's the percentage on that? Well, so there is, I don't know what the percentage is, but as I was diving into this, there were a couple of, um, it's only 61%. there were a couple of interesting outliers who uh that played a large role in the multiple finishes going on there I'm trying to think who because I didn't write this down give me a second and I'll pull it up I know Irene Aldana had a had a finish
Starting point is 00:47:41 Irene Aldana had a finish for sure give me a kick liver shot on Macy Chazahn I believe uh Manda Nunez went to a decision with Julianna Pena Nunez was was a big decision uh It was Myra Brain of Silva. Ah, yes. My Brain of Silva was doing some of God's work with finishes lately. So a couple of Stephanie Egger, who was also on one of those Myra Brain of Silvas, but who all, Stephanie Egger was actually the one. She fought three of the 13 women's band-in-way fights or were Stephanie Egger, and she got
Starting point is 00:48:17 finished in all three of them. She got finished and all three of them. All three of them last year. Thank you. Thank you for your service. She was doing a lot of work. as far as that goes for them last year. But in general, we're seeing the scorecards.
Starting point is 00:48:31 These two women in particular, they're seeing the scorecards. I just went, the over two and a half is just going to be one of my parley legs. All right. There's a world. All right, Edwards Pudilova, Alan Holloway, no doubt's going in there. Love them both. Love them both. You love Guida Garcia.
Starting point is 00:48:55 I really like Guida Gorsi So maybe loves not the right word I might go as far to say that I love Brown Algeo I mean 13 of their 14 UFC fights But if I go all four I'm getting too greedy Is there such a thing?
Starting point is 00:49:15 I want to All right once the lines come available to me That's when I'll see what I'm going to do See what I think all four of those are very solidly I don't hate that as a four leg parlay I'm just going to be out As a four leg over one and a half
Starting point is 00:49:28 pacifist parlay I don't hate it. As a man that has anxiety issues when it comes to betting overs, it will be pure torture for me. There's people are always like... This is a bet I love.
Starting point is 00:49:40 I love overs. So much fun. Yes, you're... Electric. You're a psycho. I squirm in my seat until it hits the moment. I can't stand.
Starting point is 00:49:49 And then I constantly say as it's happening, I'm like, God, I hate overs. Why do I bet these? If I can get that... All right, here's the deal. If I can get that at plus money, then I will do it. If I can not... If it's a plus money, I'm joining you.
Starting point is 00:50:03 If I can't, then I'm just going to choose three and just eat the chalk. I, look, that's a... I respect that approach. If it's a plus money, I'm joining you. All right, I love it. For sure. I love it. I will remove my, my own passivist parlay, and instead I'll just replace it with that. If it's those four legs over one and a half's A reminder, that's Pudolova Edwards, Algeo Brown, Garcia, Guida, and... and Alan Holloway all over one and a half. Boom. I hope that the MMA hour parlay pals is just this bet.
Starting point is 00:50:36 I would actually be really cool with that. That would be awesome. I'm going to use one of those as my M.A. hour parlay leg. That is for sure. All right. Enough talk about overs, though, because I ain't really an overs guy. What I am is a flyweight unders guy. And that's exactly what we've got here, man.
Starting point is 00:50:58 flyweight bout Mateus Nicolao up-and-coming prospect fantastic fighter but he ain't the A-side here folks he ain't the A-side the A-side is
Starting point is 00:51:12 Brandon raw dog Roy Val making it back to the Octagon this is a friend of the program this is a friend of the flyweight unders UFC career
Starting point is 00:51:26 he's seen one third round. Five of his six UFC fights have ended in either round one or round two. He pushes the pace. He is aggressive and he is constantly looking for finishes. Over was a no-brainer. Nicolao on the other side, he isn't the biggest finisher, but he does have five chaos. He does have five submissions. He is a BJJ blackout. I do think he has the grappling chops to hang with Roy Val. If I'm giving you my exact prediction, I think, Roy Val pushes the pace. I think Roeval is very aggressive in this fight, but the counterpunching him nickel out pays off and he finishes Brennan Roy Val. Round one or round two. I have the exact same read. And I didn't even think twice about this.
Starting point is 00:52:15 Brandon Roy Val is what flyweight unders are all about. Oh, no, no, no. When I say like I didn't think twice about this, as soon as the line popped up, I was like, under, under. Boom. Hang. No question. Smashed it. Don't need to watch tape. That's where we're right. Zero tape study done. I threw a little shekel on Mattais Nicolae Money Line as well. Don't hate it. I do think he's going to win.
Starting point is 00:52:37 There's another line that has gotten inflated as almost every line has this week. I don't know that I want to bet him at where he's at minus 210, but. Sorry about that, folks. No, that wasn't a hurricane. That was just my shoulder hitting the microphone. Hurricane competes on Friday in the PFL. Nice. That was nice.
Starting point is 00:52:55 Yeah, I've been working out. My shoulders are getting a little. broader over here. No big deal. Summers around the corners, ladies and gents. Make sure you're getting in the gym. All right, that's that. Not much else to say on that one. So let's just keep it rolling. To a women's strawweight bout, Gillian Robertson fighting, not at flyweight. She's making the move down to 115, taking on undefeated Piero Rodriguez. Right now, Gillian Robertson has flipped to the favorite in this matchup, minus 125, the undefeated 9-0. Pierre Rodriguez plus 105 coming back.
Starting point is 00:53:31 I took Gillian when she was when she was at plus money. I mean, the record is. I like that much better at plus money than as a minus. I mean, the record is not great 11 and 7, but like she's much more experience. She's coming down and she's going to be the bigger fighter in this situation. Piero Rodriguez likes to take this to the mat. And if this goes to the mat, I think Gillian Robertson,
Starting point is 00:53:55 there's levels to this. and I think she is a level above Pierre Rodriguez in this one. I really do think she is incredibly live for a submission in this fight. Kind of just a quick pull trigger for me. I didn't really do a ton of tape study on it, but just knowing the fighters pass, that's what I felt. That's what I rolled with.
Starting point is 00:54:16 I don't hate that as an underdog. I don't feel confident really enough to be giving her a minus money on it, but I do think she's live for submission. Be interested to see what a submission prop line looks like. But until then... At books, not available to me. Gillian Robertson, no subline, but inside the distance is plus 160.
Starting point is 00:54:49 That's maybe something. Maybe sub will be like plus 180 or so. Yeah, I don't know. Yeah, if subs like plus two, which probably wouldn't be it but if it is for whatever reason around plus two, might take a shot on that.
Starting point is 00:55:03 All right, let's keep it rolling. Final fight that I got to get into, I don't know about you, but it's a lightweight battle. One more. Sweet. Lando Vanata,
Starting point is 00:55:12 taking on Daniel Zell, Hoover. This is revenge bet number two for me. I'm going dark. I'm going, I'm going seedy. Feels like I'm in Gotham right now with how many revenge bets I have this weekend. So respect to this bet. Listen, if you were there, if you took place in what happened in Zell-Huber-Ogden,
Starting point is 00:55:35 was tough. If you had Zell-Huber finishing every one of your parlayes like a dalt like I did, you knew that this was a play that you had to make. Now listen, follow cautiously as Zell-Huber could just become enemy number one when he wins this weekend. This could be a great buy-low spot for the guy. 23 years old. He could have just the moment be too big and now he's going to shine, shake off the butterflies, and he ends up having a great performance. He is going against the guy that he has
Starting point is 00:56:07 physical attributes that lend to winning the fight, especially if it stays at range. I mean, he's going to have a four inch height advantage, a six inch reach advantage. But with the way he looked against Trey Ogden, I cannot back him again. He couldn't get any punches off. He couldn't get activated. And yeah, he essentially just didn't do anything to win the fight. And Tray Ogden was held victorious. And then in a somewhat similar style matchup, Baja Mondes took on Trey Ogden and rolled this past weekend. So yeah, that's the end of my soliloquy here on my revenge bet. Land of Venada is what I thought. I love it. It's important to be petty. I am very petty this week. Yeah, just
Starting point is 00:56:57 get after him for, I am not joining you on this, uh, but I support you in all things. There's a very real world where we're coming back here next week and it's just like, so we're bounce back. By love. I just don't have any kind of a read here. Uh, like I said, I haven't done enough tape study, but
Starting point is 00:57:13 you know, if it'll be, if you do lose, you can take solace knowing that you've found a new mortal enemy. I'm cool with that. You will now have a guy to root a forever, and that's important. The Golden Boy, young.
Starting point is 00:57:29 He's going to have a long UFC career, and I'm going to be able to root against them every step of the way. And you said that was your last one, good sir? Tell me your last one. Well, we already talked about it briefly. It's Jocelyn Edwards versus Lucy Pudolova. Oh, great.
Starting point is 00:57:43 Outside of us just talking, you know, the Edwards, Edwards, the overs that we discussed. I'm also taking a shot on Jocelyn Edwards at Underdog Odds, plus 1.15. Look, if you, I'm not entirely sure why this fight isn't just to pick them.
Starting point is 00:58:04 Edwards, when she's lost in the UFC, it's been because they have taken her down over and over and over again. And that's not Lucy Pudilova's game. Edwards going to have a clear reach advantage and a volume advantage. I mean, she really piles up the strikes in her wins against Pudilova.
Starting point is 00:58:23 I think this fight's just an actual coin flip, and you can get Edwards at plus 115. So I'm taking the underdog shot. No shame in that game. Women's MMA underdogs. I'm not a lot of underdogs this week. Who all are you on? Alan, Bozer, obviously.
Starting point is 00:58:45 Munoz and Edwards and Shane Burgos, if we're counting PFO. So I got five underdogs this week. I'm on Alan. I took Kudalab at Plus Money. I took Gillian Roberts. and it plots money and I took Landovanada at Plus money obviously We're giving out a lot of underdog options.
Starting point is 00:59:00 A few of those lines of move. So yeah, a few of those lines of move. I technically am not giving them out, which I feel bad about. But yeah. But that's it. We're ready for Kansas City. That's UFC.
Starting point is 00:59:11 Boots on the ground. Do you have if Daniel Zell Hoover wins, should I ask him if he is doing this intentionally just to hurt you? Oh yeah, you're going to sit in the media room afterwards. I'll be doing the media room. I'll be asking the questions. He comes up if he pulls out a win over Lando, should I be like,
Starting point is 00:59:30 do you know who Connor Berks is and why do you hate him? Yeah, I actually don't even ask if he knows who I am. Just ask plain and simple, why do you hate Connerner? Why do you hate Conner Berks? What is your problem, sir, with Connor Berks? Oh, man, that's actually great.
Starting point is 00:59:45 You're going to be boots on the ground. What question can we get you to ask? Definitely at any pre-fight press conferences, ask if any of them are locks. That's always hilarious. I will not be at any of the pre-fight stuff. Everyone loves when people do that. I will.
Starting point is 01:00:02 If Brandon Orval wins, I will ask him if he knows what he means to flywood under nation. Yes, yes. If he wins by finish, you actually have to ask. Do you know what a flyway under is and do you know what you mean to all of us in the nation? Your finishing capabilities are legendary around these parts. All right, that's a UFC Kansas City. Easy, clean, hour in, out, looking forward to it. I'm going to try to mount a little thing we like to call a streak,
Starting point is 01:00:36 back-to-back winning UFC cards. Love a streak. I'm pretty sure that would be my first one of 2023, which is mind-boggling to me because I don't know... speaks to the year. I don't know what happened at midnight on December 31st, 2022. I traded that Georgia win for being... good at MMA betting. That's what happened. Look, that field goal shanks left and all of our betting is right there. And look, I'd take that trade 10 times out of 10. I think I probably would,
Starting point is 01:01:05 but man, this is not that fun. There were a couple times. I had multiple streaks last year of five winning weeks and more, like on several occasions. I miss those things. Maybe we're just getting all the losses out now, and it's about to be, you know, April on. Oh my gosh. We never We might never lose again. Don't let me get hot this summer. Do not let me get hot this summer. That's all I'm going to say. Just saying, if we never lose again.
Starting point is 01:01:34 It'll be with the shoulders from working out, have it all going for you. That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm trying to say. Next week, there's going to be some bad blood on this podcast. We head back to the apex. Sergei Pavlovich, Curtis Blades, main event. Oh, there is so much bad blood coming into that fight.
Starting point is 01:01:54 I can't wait. I can't wait. I am not excited about the heavyweight over next week. I wouldn't be. I certainly would not be. Sergei Pavlovich is enemy of the heavyweight over state. Oh, man. For sure.
Starting point is 01:02:10 No doubt. Fantastic fight. Cannot wait for that one. Enjoy Kansas City, brother. Get some good barbecue. Enjoy the fights. The fact that you're going to be that close to that high level of a fight, I'm jealous. Get there safe.
Starting point is 01:02:23 Cash some bets. guys. I got to say I'm not willing to I'm not willing to say that it's a fact but I'm just throwing it out there. The last couple of events I've gone to they magic has happened. When I show up to an event,
Starting point is 01:02:39 the fighters, they stand up, they take notice. They're like, oh, okay, Jed's here. Jed's front row. We got to put on the show. You got to show out for Jed. Yeah. It's a thing that has happened before is all I'm going to say. and so just you know
Starting point is 01:02:56 be on the lookout I don't want to say that it will happen for sure but oh there's a real chance UFC 236 was in Atlanta that was Holloway Holloway Poirier 2 plus Izzy Gastilum the two best
Starting point is 01:03:11 fights of 2019 it tends to happen so keep your eyes stay be prepared be ready I will be prepared I hope that that comes to fruition I hope that the main event is just awesome.
Starting point is 01:03:26 That's all I'm hoping for. Back to the apex next week. Can't wait. Talk then. Love y'all. The Vox Media Podcast Network.

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