MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Brandon Moreno Get Back On Track Against Amir Albazi at UFC Edmonton?

Episode Date: October 30, 2024

UFC Edmonton takes place this Saturday, with a flyweight double feature as Brandon Moreno takes on Amir Albazi in the main event and Erin Blanchfield faces off with Rose Namajunas in a five-round co-main event. So with all that action, and more, MMA Fighting's Jed Meshew is joined by Alexander K. Lee to break it all down. On top of the two feature fights, there are 12 more bouts this weekend, many of them featuring Canadian fighters and Jed and AK discuss all the best betting options. Topics include whether Brandon Moreno can get back into title contention, if Erin Blanchfield is being underrated after suffering her first loss, how will all the Canadian fighters do on home soil, and more. Plus, Jed introducing AK to "THE CLIMB" as he continues his march towards glory. Tune in for episode 106 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

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I don't know other adjectives for exceptional, but exceptional UFC 308. What a wondrous card. And unlike what often happens in these circumstances, where we follow that up by taking a trip back to the old stomping grounds, back to the apex to just, we had the high, we got to get the palate cleanser before moving on to the next course. Not this time, my friends.

This time, we head to the Great White North, the Frozen North for UFC Edmonton, and a fight that I know you all have been excited for, a fight that screams Canada, Brandon Moreno versus Amir Al-Bazi, a flyweight contest. And you know that if we're going to go, go to Canada. We're going to be talking about Canadian MMA. There's no man more ready, more prepared, frankly that I would want to speak to more than Canada's chosen son himself, the king in the north,

Mr. Alexander Cayley, AK, thanks for joining me this week, buddy. What's up, A? Yeah, I'm happy to bring the Canadianness to this show. As people know, I'm not a big gambler. I'm pretty firm, don't bet on MMA rule, but I don't mind talking about it. I quite enjoy speaking about about the odds, you know, if only hypothetically. And starting next year, like I said, I actually say, you know, I start my year with a little bit of money. And once it's gone, it's gone. I don't buy back in.

I was out by March this year. So, you know, we've visited me in a few months. And, you know, maybe I can actually have really put in some substantial money on the line when we're talking about no bet spire. But for now, I will just be giving theory. I'll be giving some fun facts. And I will be shouting out to several Canadian fighters on this card and maybe sort of what we can expect in those particular bad jobs.

Jed, I'm curious, how did 308 go for you? Did you have Toporia by knockout? I did not have to pouria by knockout. If you had Topori by knockout, terrific for you. I had to pour you by decision under the plan that, oh, Max Holloway can't be knocked out. And I was wrong. We're all wrong. Apparently, apparently it can be.

Did you see what the odds were? It has to have been like minus. plus 600, 700. I bet it was plus like four or five. I didn't actually end up going back and look. I can't imagine. I'm sure it was high because it is Max Holloway. The over under on the fight was four and a half rounds.

Maybe it bumped down to three at one point. But I mean, like the expectation was not for that to be what happened. And as a result, we, let's just, let's be honest, had a bad week, lost a couple of units, just missed all around. I took a you know, Hamzot inside the distance cashed Porty by decision fails. Laurel Murphy by decision also cast.

My boy, Ebo Aslan, getting it done early. You know, I love me, some contender series highlight prospects. But then I foolishly bet on Armand Petrosian just as a like, why not? He's kind of a decent size underdog. The dumbest, one of my dumbest bets of the year, if I'm being honest,

I took the over one and a half in Kennedy and Zichukwu versus Chris Barnett. And then I even placed a bet on Barnett just because, I don't know, he was like plus 500. And as soon as the fight started, I was like, that was a waste of money. These are both going to light on fire now. But those vibes were really good until you saw Barnett actually like enter the cage. Until he was fighting. Yeah, we're walking out. The vibes are awesome.

Energy through the roof. I've bet on Inzachuku, as I like to call him, Kenny Nunchukes, so many times. And they're burnt so many times. It's like, this is going to be my get back. Plus 550. Let's go, Huggy Bear. Nope. How, that's just how that went.

Oroby losing blew up a fairly big parlay for me. Exceptional fight. No issue with the loss. Just kind of blew it up. So some hits and misses. But most importantly, AK, and I'm now going to answer a question you asked off air. The most important thing is last week, we continued on, onward and upward. We may have failed in other bets, but the climb continued.

So, A.K., I don't know if you listen to No Betts Bar in the last couple of weeks. Maybe you have, maybe you haven't. I am engaged on a journey, a spiritual, physical, and financial journey to the top of the mountain. And it is called the climb. And what this is, A.K., is every week we're taking a bet. And we're betting it. And it's minus 500 or better, you know, roughly in those. It doesn't have to be roughly in there.

Because if we can string 30 of those bets together and roll them over, we can turn $100,000 into over $20,000. Only? And minus 500 favorites. If you took 30 minus 500 favorites and parlayed them, you can basically. You turn 100 bucks into like 28,000 or something insane like that. I have the math, but it's not in front of me anymore because I don't need the specific numbers. What I need is the journey.

I need the climb, okay? And we initially started this with Alex Pereira. And then a week later, Grant Dawson sent us skidding back down the mountain because I picked Grant Dawson over one and a half. And he finished him in under seven and a half minutes. It was very rude of Grant Dawson to get his first quick finish in years. So we started the climb again a couple of weeks back with Francis Inganu. Francis Inganu cashes that bet. Last week, we took two steps.

There were two bets that felt so good about the climb I had to take them. It was the over one and a half in Tupuria Holloway. And then it was the over one and a half in Lerone Murphy, Dan Igay. So we are three steps up this mountain. We got 27 to go, AK. And this week, as it stands right now, I do not have. have a bet for the climb. And I got to find one because the journey must continue. We must climb to the top of the agro crag, of Everest, whatever mountain that you visualize when you see the climb,

I'm working on a physical mountain to get so I can follow it along physically. And I got to find a bet for the climb. So if you're out there and you see one, let me know. I'm going to tell you something. I'm a little confused. So you started this climb, you start with $100. It hits and then you take all of what you won from that first bet and put it on another minus 500 or more. And the hundred bucks. You roll it all in. And then when you, so you lose, you go down to zero. Correct. And then you got to buy back in for the climb to start again. Okay. And it's as if you are climbing a mountain and you slide back to the bottom, have to start all over again. So, okay, so how many hundreds have you put in so far? This is the,

The second iteration of the car. Okay. So you've only put in $200 technically. Correct. We failed once. Oh, okay. Again. What an idea.

What a gimmick. What a gimmick. It's the best gimmick I've ever come up with. Yeah. It could be costly. I mean, it's going to burn money because nobody hits a 30-leg parlay. But can you imagine, like we're in the early stages now. Can you imagine the sweat?

Okay. Just the absolute vibes. If I can put together 10 of these. 15 of these. And suddenly where suddenly that 100 bucks has turned into like, all right, I've now got a thousand bucks on John Jones to beat Steepa Mietich to continue the climb. So this is essentially what you're doing, as you said. You're trying to hit a, you're essentially stretching a multi-leg parlay over a long period of time. Essentially, yeah. One leg at a time. Literally climbing this mountain one leg at a time.

Exactly. It's not dissimilar, frankly, from like, you see those people on TikTok are like, I traded a pin for a whole house. And this is how I did it. We're taking this hundred bucks and we're turning it in to 28 grand to climb our own financial Everest. I don't know if there's, and I'll go, I'm looking with you as the show goes on. I don't know if there are any bets on any. Like, this is one of those cards where the matchmaking feels so even.

I don't think you have minus 500 on anything. If I see anything, I will shout out during the show for sure. But yeah, we can get there together. It's very tough, but that is a perfect segue for us because, AK. We are talking about UFC Edmonton this week. And like you mentioned, very different kind of card than UFC 308 was. 308 had a ton of big favorites. Honestly, I could have taken like six different bets on 308, which is guys, I was confident

were winning, and were pretty high prices. Everything here, very, very even. The biggest favorite you're looking at is about minus 250 for a couple of them. Like everything is pretty nip-tuck. And so could be some great spots out there. If you guys have some real good vibes, real good feels about fighters you think you're going to win. Could be a tough night at the office because these fights appear to be, at least according to the bookmakers, fairly close. And we start AK with the main event.

I've already mentioned it, but it is Brandon Moreno, former two-time flyweight champion, taking on Amir al-Bazi's first fight in 16 months. and the odds are, like I said, pretty tight. Moreno, depending on where you're looking at, around minus 150. Come back on Alba. Oh, that number is moved, actually. Sorry, these are slightly older notes. Now Moreno is around minus 170, 175. Come back on Albazis plus 150-ish.

So that number has changed a little bit since I took these notes yesterday. And interesting stuff. So, AK, what are you? feeling about this main event this very very canadian main event uh yes extremely love this fight all this fight feels overdue this was previously booked right wasn't this booked at one point and someone in fact was they were originally set to fight at mexico city yeah oh yeah and then albazi got injured neck injury uh brando rival steps in ends up winning the contentious split decision over morano in i think that was their second fight maybe it was their third they fought a bunch so uh yeah

this was originally supposed to happen back in whatever that was march or may or whatever that was abazi a neck injury this is his first fight since june 3rd 2023 a little over 500 days i still like him as a contender i think i'm kind of leaning towards him to win this fight uh oh let me know by the guys everything here uh let me first add um everything i say for the most part will be from bet online but unless otherwise noted so uh you can hear a lot of this for me today if like goes the distance minus 190. I think a lot of those are really good straight bets. If you want to be hero and parlay some of these,

you people are smarter than I am. But minus 190, I don't think it's a straight bet at all. I guess you could just find over two and a half instead. But if this goes over two and a half, I'm pretty sure it's going the whole way. So you just go to minus 190. I almost want to lock it in. I just can't see either guy getting such an edge on the other that he finished him,

which is, listen, Mreno is more than capable of finishing. Abazi a little bit shakier in that regard, but I like that one the most. And if you're going with, I said, oh, okay, sorry, I made a note here. Abazi underdog. I saw him at plus 144 on Forecasters. I don't know if I love that. You'll be sweating it. You'll be sweating it.

MMA is supposed to be fun. I think you just take a go of the distance. It's not a sexy pick. And I have zero interest in any finish wagers. I just, I can't jump, get an ledge for a K.O. or a submarine. that so i don't know i'm playing i would play this one pretty safe jett some people like to sweat it you know i i loved heavyweight overs because they were the most electric bet in sport uh you taught said something very very important to me because i do have i do have some action on this already i have brandon

moreno at minus 150 obviously that price has moved if the price keeps moving uh i say this all the time if you got a guaranteed winner take a guaranteed winner if the price keeps moving i can get a guaranteed even if it's a slight payoff. I'll just take it because I don't feel that confident where I would continue betting. So if Albaozzi gets to like plus 170 and I can guarantee a win on either side, small as it may be, free money's free money. You take it. I just, I think Brandon Moreno still is one of the very best, is the second best flyweight in the world. I thought he beat Reval in their rematch. Very close fighted, not a robbery decision,

but I did think he won that fight. And so, you know, talking about losing a very, very, very competitive fight against Alessandro Pantoja, who we talked about on the ranking show this week, A.K., I think one of the best fighters in the world, a really tough style matchup for Moreno. And again, could win that fight on any given day. It just hasn't happened. And I just need a little bit more. Albaozzi's got to prove it to me a little bit more. I thought he lost to Cairo, France. I know he wins that split decision the last time he was out. But other than that, his UFC run is quality.

Make no mistake. But Alessandro Costa, Francisco Figurado, Zagos, Zuma Gulov, Malcolm Gordon. These are just not the same tier of fighter. What I have seen has not been as impressive. If he comes out and proves me wrong, get that boy a title fight. He absolutely deserves it. But I'm all Moreno. And I'm now adding in, this is going to be my climb bet.

Not Moreno, AK. But what's going to be my. climb bed is the over one and a half. You are so confident that this is going long. And I, in general, I'm leaning that way as well. Neither guy are big early finishers. Abazi does actually have a couple in the UFC. But, I mean, it's just a different world between finishing Francisco Figurado and Malcolm

Gordon than it is to finishing Brandon Moreno. Brandon Moreno has never been stopped. Albaazi also never been stopped. I do think you're right. We are very likely for this to go a long way. I'll be honest. If we were higher up the mountain, if this was like step 20, I might not be taken this bet because I don't feel like locked in, locked in with it. But still in the early stages of the climb, I'm going to take that over one and a half.

Might I suggest a safer climb bet? Okay. It's only a couple of fights down, so I'm not jumping too far ahead. I mean, it's not locked in yet. Yeah. I haven't put the wager in. So we have time to think about it. Okay.

Do you want me to wait until we get to that fight? Oh, yeah. Wait till you two. Oh, okay. I have another option. This is tentatively to climb. Maybe I'll just double climb it, you know? Maybe we'll hop the steps, you know, just pop, hit him the two step.

I like the Marino pick, though, because, yeah, this might be the last time, depending how Moreno performs. Maybe, I don't know, maybe he's offering. But this might be the last time you get him at such good odds because he's, it's clearly closer because he's coming off two straight losses. But, again, Pentosia fight a split. I actually thought Marino won. And many people did.

Yeah, Roy Val fight a split. I thought Moreno won that one as well. So, yeah, to get a, what did you say? It moved to minus 160, right? That's the best you saw right now. No, it's right now, it's like, I mean, there is a place with minus 160, but most books have it around minus 170, minus 75. Yeah, well, I'll tell you, that's still pretty good.

So you got him at minus 150, you said. I did. Wow, that's really solid, actually. Okay. So, yeah, a couple of points that are already feeling okay about it. And we will press on then. from your main event to another five-round fight. We got back-to-back five-round fights this Saturday.

I love co-main events being five-rounders in general, especially when it is a co-main event of this nature, with the winner potentially fighting, getting a title shot after this. I am speaking, of course, Aaron Blanchfield, the Women's Flyweight Contest, taking on former strawweight champion, Rosenama Eunice. The odds favor Blanchfield right now amount around minus,

125. Come back on Nami Yunus, depending on where you're getting looks like plus 115, you know, plus 110 somewhere in that neighborhood. And A.K., like me, you got to love this fight, right? Blanchfield, we were all super high on or probably nobody as high as I was. The Menon-Fioro fight, maybe, maybe we've changed. Maybe people view this differently. Rose Namuonis, now up at flyweight full time, trying to make a run for second belt. I mean, this is just a plus level stuff, is it not? Yeah, I dig it.

This is right matchmaking. This is a way to go with Aaron Blanchfield. And for Rose, I'm glad, big Rose Navajoz fan, glad they didn't jump the gun and having her like skip the line. She's a good fighter. Someone with her reputation, having won the title two times, like you would think they would normally feel entitled. Their team would feel entitled to be like, listen,

we won this fight, we won this fight, we should, you know, we should be able to skip over. But that never made sense to me, especially with how strong Manaw has been. So I love what they did here. I wouldn't have minded it as the main event. It actually initially was not officially, but it was thought it was going to be the main event of Edmonton. And then they announced the Moreno, Al-Bosie fight later, which they put at the top, which is fine. I think both fights are fine main events.

But I had no problem with Rose and Aaron. I really like Jed. So Aaron Blanchfield line, I'm seeing, is anywhere from minus 130 to minus 150? This really? Yeah. This really feels like an overcompensation. Like, because she was getting crazy lines before, obviously when she was undefeated. I'm not undefeated.

Had the one, whatever, lost. But I mean, undefeated in the UFC. And, you know, we all, we all think she's an amazing talent. We all think she'd be a future champion. And as she kept racking up wins, those odds were getting long, long, long. Like she was, again, probably getting odds, plus odds that were maybe not, oh, sorry, minus odds, excuse me, that maybe weren't reflective of, like, how great she was yet. So now she's facing a two-time champion.

She's facing a very well-known name. and still favored minus 30 to minus 150. Like, I think that is solid. I would, I love a straight pick on Blanchefield. I will be, when I do the predictions,

I will be picking her to beat Rose Nama Yunus. So I would tell people get in on that now, whenever it is that you listen to this podcast. I don't hate Blanchefield inside the distance. There is a chance that she just hosses Rose. I see that a lot about about plus 350. Not as enthusiastic about it. I would expect to go the distance,

which is minus 250. and that could be a pilot piece. But otherwise, forget those two things. I think a straight Blanchfield bet is solid. Yeah, I'm on Blanchfield. I'm on Blanchfield pretty heavy. It's one of my favorite bets in some time. Outside of my feelings on Blanchefield,

which are very well-stated, well-known at this point in time, this is a bad matchup for an Ami Unis in my mind. She did not look great in her debut up at this weight class, taking on Manalfuro. basically she lost a fuel just out-hossing her just being a big physical much larger person do think she is acclimated a little better but the thing about amanda hebas and tracy cortez they're both smaller fly weights they're not big massive fly weights and so that kind of what could test rows there now to some extent blanchefield is not a physically tall or whatever but she is obviously

very very thick and she's a very forceful athletic kind of physical brings a physicality to bear that historically Rose has struggled with in general. Jessica and Raj, obviously, to some extent, the kryptonite for Rosnami Unish, just out being a physically dominant human being against her. And she obviously killed Wiley in the first fight, but in the rematch, Wiley had a lot more success just by being stronger, being able to get her grappling going. And that's the biggest key for me here. I mean, Eunice has just never been a good defensive wrestler.

She was so, and she's aware of it, too, because that is, if you go rewatch and don't, please don't do this to yourself. Love yourself. It's not necessary to go rewatch the Carlos Barza championship fight times, too, the second one. But Rose just didn't want to give up takedowns. And so her offense became nothing as she was terrified of giving up takedowns because she's not a great defensive wrestling. and like I got to tell you that's that's not going to work against sarin blanchfield man she is going to force you to defensively wrestler rose is a good grappler but i don't anticipate her pulling off a submission so i think this is a great price a great get-back for blanchefield the one

concern aka one one concern rosemunus is six and two as an underdog when she is an underdog. She cashes tickets. And that is a concerning thing, given she's an underdog here, but not enough to back me away. One of my favorite fights of the night, there's another one coming up that I think I like even more than this, but this is, this would under normal circumstances be my pick of the weekend. What was the last fight that she won, that she was an underdog, though? the second Zhang fight? That's a good question. She would not have been, there's no chance she would have been an underdog to Zhang the second time around.

Okay. I'm sure she was a favorite over Hebas and Cortez. Yeah. Oh, Tapology says she was a slight underdog to Zhang. Yeah, I see that. She's insane that she knocked Shang out in like 90 seconds the first time. So there's that. But either way, it's been a while.

I think we can say it's been a while. So I don't know if this trend, like I wouldn't be that worried about that trend. It has been a while since she's pulled off some of that underdog magic. And I'm not expecting it this Saturday. I just, I have this image of people, maybe, I don't know how many people will be surprised, but that Blanchville is going to like toss her a couple of times. And people are like, oh yeah, like Rose is like actually a straw weight. Like she's not really a flyweight.

She's skilled enough to do it. She's, you know, she's got some physical gifts for sure. But as far as Ross size and strength goes, I just don't think she's going to. But she's going to have a hard time with some of these 125ers, especially Aaron Blanchfield. So, and I would put it through to feel this way. If this fight was made, I don't know, six months. If this fight was made when Rose was just coming up to 125, Blanchfield would be like a minus 400 favorite. She'd be a monster favorite.

So I don't think that much has changed, guys, just because they're, like we've seen, like I said, Rose could beat the fighter she beat. Amanda He was a smaller flyweight. Cortez, a big gap in a high-level experience and a skill, if I'm being, it sounds very insulting, but you guys saw that play out on flight night. You saw that play out. That gap, I don't think, is here. Experience sure, but the gap, skill gap, I don't think is big here. And I think the size gap is considerable.

So, again, just think about what you would have bet before, guys, this happened a year ago. And now you're getting much, much better odds of Flansfield. So, hey. Hebaugh scored four of eight takedowns on her. I got to imagine Bladfield's going to do better than that. So, yeah, good value on Blanchfield still, even as that price is rising a little bit from where I got it. And that takes us AK to my favorite fight of the weekends. It doesn't really matter to me in some respects anymore, but I am speaking, of course.

We're heading to the heavies. The Black Beast, Derek Lewis, taking on Gernata Denise, former glory kickboxer. Lewis plus 150 coming in as an underdog. Denise, despite a very short UFC career at this point, only two fights in the UFC taking on Derek Lewis. He is a minus 160 favorite. And AK, I'm going to lead us off because it's short and sweet. I drafted Derek Lewis on my fantasy team.

That fact alone means y'all should bet on Janata Denise because everybody on my fantasy team this year has been poop. They've just been terrible. They've all lost, except for the people I both. grudgingly took that I didn't want to take Giuliana Pena. I didn't want to take Julianna Pena, but then she won for me. Everybody else, they're just losing. Derek Lewis on my team, you should fade him.

That being said, I'm going to continue to back my boys. He's on my team. I do think Janada Denise is incredibly beatable. He is a glory kickboxer career, and that's, you know, he didn't even get knocked out a lot in glory. but Derek Lewis underrated for his ability to just kind of donkey Kong people, just drop them down and put those big lunchboxes into their head on the floor. If he just tries to kickbox, probably going to go poorly.

I think he's going to be smart enough to at least mix in the wrestling, get on top, pound it out. Plus 150, I'm going to back my boy and take the shot on him. You're not going. Extracuse Lewis by K.O. The difference is just not worth it. Okay, true. It's, uh, I'm seeing it. Derek Lewis by K.O. is plus 175 versus plus one 45.

What have I told you I see it on Bovada and draft kings a plus 215, 2 to 1 odds? That's getting better. That's getting a little bit. That's bringing some more interest in me. And you don't expect him to win by decision. Like, if you're going to do it, you got to do it. You can't, you can't ever count Derek Lewis winning a decision out because he'll sneak those in on you. It hasn't happened in a while, but

Alir Latifi, the Francis Ngano fight, he'll sneak one in on you, but no, in general, you do think this is a get-or-get-got. One of these men is getting knocked out early. As a result, I also, instead of doing Lewis, I was just like, what if I just bet the under? You know, like, some guy's going to go under two and a half, and that's not, like, you know, minus 400, that's still probably reasonable. But I don't want to have double bets here. I got my Lewis bet. It's already in.

I'm living with it. Ride or die for my boys. He is going to lose. I'm telling people, Lewis by a KO. I think that's definitely not a lock. Definitely not a lock. We don't really know exactly what we have with Denise yet.

But I feel like Lewis, if he just does anything crazy, I don't know if Denise can handle that. Like, I think you're right. The kickboxing experience is good. But that almost like doesn't prepare you for the stupidity of MMA. and like Lewis when he goes full MMA on someone I mean the guy's got 15 career knockouts just just just from swanging and banging and banging and taking people down and donkey Kong on him as you said um Jed do you hear that do you hear that's music what is it the band

it's the climb oh you think this is the climb um I'm on draft Kings I see uh fight ends inside distance minus 500 but you do sound like you are you are fearing a um let me and and gone i mean i don't look i'll be honest i don't hate this uh minus 500 this this is going to end in a knockout someone's getting finished denise denise has gone to decision one time it was against carl williams that's the king of decisions heavyweight over carl heavyweight over is william i love carl williams so much for what he does for the heavyweight over nation Derek Lewis did survive five rounds against Jailton Almeida. I don't anticipate this being a similarly fashion fight.

What is it? It's between this and what was the main event one? Marino Albazi over one and a half. Over one and a half. It's a bigger price. That is pretty good, though. It's a bigger price. It's minus 650.

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Yeah. But it's just going to accelerate your climb. It's going to accelerate your climb a little bit. It's how I'm saying. I mean, I'm not opposed to doing a little two-step for the climb. Maybe.

They're both solid. I think those are both. Look, let's do it. Yes. Let's do it. We're going to punch it in. Yes. We're going to do it.

Lewis, Denise, and now I just have to be stressed if this is really bringing back heavy weight. You are not parlaying these. These are separate. No, I'm parlaying them. It's functionally the same thing. It's functionally. Okay.

I can't do the math in my head. Okay. But all of, for all you listeners at home, we don't know this, all a parley is, if instead of doing the put the parley in, you know, all at once, you can parlay is the same as doing a bet, win the bet, take the money from the one bet and then put it into the next bet. Wait a minute. So hold on. So how's it going to work? You are going to bet Lewis and these first. No, I'm just going to parlay for just short-hand.

Oh, you are just parlay. Right. Or you are parlay. Okay. Okay. Yes. Okay. That's right.

Because then it's easier. It's the same core concept. I've heard when you're climbing a mountain, you should not try it in two-step. I don't know. I'm not a mountain climbing expert. No, no. Sometimes you've got to rush up the mountain. Just scramble up as fast as you can.

So look, we're not even climbing the mountain. This is just in the foothills at the base of the mountain before we really start the treacherous. You know, we've all seen free solo. This is just walking up there. And we're hitting the steps two at a time trying to get to where we need to be faster. So if this is where this iteration of the climb fails, we're going to bring you back on to just shame you. I'll get the shame bell.

I am. Shame. So I'm so confident. I'm so. But doesn't wait a minute. Now, wait a minute. I don't want to get stuck on this point for too long. Doesn't parlaying them take it below minus 500 then?

Doesn't it make it? I mean, yeah, but they're both iteration. So it's all the same. Okay. It's playing the same in the total circumstances of the game. I trust you. This is mostly just about having a long, exciting journey to string 30 bets together. Okay.

However they come. Are you going to evaluate at the end of the year? Does it have to be 30 if you hit like whatever, 14 in a row by the end of the year? You're going to crow. But like that's, I mean, can you then get off the climb? If you hit like 14 in a row, you're like, you know what? I've considered once we get to like a certain level, at least cashing out the hundreds, so we're not just lighting $100 on fire every climb.

That seems fair. and then like okay once we're at like a thousand on the bet then we pull out a hundo then we just keep going back to it and we feel okay about it i haven't decided yet we'll see we'll see when it gets to when the stress of dropping like two grand on i don't know john jones or whoever it is gets there we'll see how i feel but uh this is yeah you can't be thinking about it in those terms you just got to be thinking as this is one hundred dollars going on a magical journey up up the side of the mountain up up mount olympus to the home of the gods that's where we're trying to go right now so uh can't wait till you see the physical climb board that is being built

as we speak it's just electric stuff oh my god okay it's my favorite thing i've done in some time including the fantasy league i'm concerned i'm concerned i'm concerned have other guests express their concern no no no they're all they're all on board i would like people to know about my reservations. That is all. I will make you do that ones. It's going to be great. We've been derailed and we still have 11 more fights to talk about. We got a lot of Canadians coming. It's Canadian time, Jed. I say we are now about to get into a pile of the Canucks, but not quite yet, because we got one more fight before we start getting into Canada land, as I like to call it. And I'm speaking, of course, a late heavyweight contest. Excuse me, sir. Excuse me, sir. Kai Machado is one of us.

Oh, is he? He is. He is from Sao Paulo, of course, born, but fighting out of Vancouver. Lives and fights out of beautiful British Columbia. We claim him. We absolutely claim him. He told our own Guillermo Cruz, I am doing this. He said, I am excited to fight in front of my home crowd.

He called us our home crowd. He has claimed us. We shall claim him. So it does begin now. It does begin now. I stay corrected. I was just looking at the flags on technology. And that never tells the full tail.

So you're absolutely correct. Yeah. But it does remain a light heavyweight contest. Kyle Machado taking on Brinson, Heberto. Machado, a very marginal favor right now, around minus 150. The comeback on Heberto plus 140. So, AK, I mean, this is your realm now. These are your people.

Yeah. How are we believing in Kyle Machado? Okay, these cards are pretty tricky because usually if a card has like one two Canadians. Not that I bet, but if people have ever kept track of my predictions, I usually pick against Canadians. One, as maybe a reverse jinx. They do poorly in Canada. Yes, U.S. 297. We'll get around to that, I'm sure. We might mention it multiple times. So you normally, I bet against them. One, again, maybe reverse jinx, not that I believe in that. Two, you know, we haven't exactly been crushing it up here in Canadian MMA. Jed, I've heard you're a follower of the

contender series. I've heard you've watched the contender series. he's fighter two. Jedd, where did the Canadians on this season rank on your tier list of winners of winners on the only one I can remember was that doo-do got got in the last one. It was like the 5-0. And I actually do still think he's a good prospect. I do too. I do too.

Yes, he'll be fine. He'll be okay. He'll come back. He'll be back on. I had him in my, and I can't remember his name. You probably have it off top of your head. I can pull it up. Addu, Abdul-ab-Dil.

Adu, I think is right. Because I had him in, I, you know, I did the rounds as I, as I have them. But I also had honorable mentions, guys who didn't get, who didn't get, they didn't get contracts. So I was still like, I still think you're actually going to be a reasonable fighter. Oh, I was just trying to set up a crack at my fellow Canadians that none of them won. I was like that. I was saying, Muhammad Adu did not win. I do have him as a guy who, you know, maybe we,

watch. There are a couple of others, but I don't remember. I think there's one other Canadian. I was like, a guy might be okay, but he lost as well. If you faded Canadians on Contender Series this year, you did real well. Especially we had a Shannon Clark, poor Shannon. I think one of the biggest favorites ever on Contender Series, just get one shot annihilated. Victim of one of the biggest knockouts ever on Contenders Series. So it hasn't been going great for us up here. That said, Sorry guys to get off track there. Machado by Kio, Jen, I'm going to Machado by Kio, plus 215 on Ben Online. Hibero, I think he's being brought in to do the job.

I imagine that's the case for a lot of these Canadian matchups, and I'm not as confident in several others. But in this case, I do think Machado is not a heavyweight. That's where his first two EFC fights were, not his division. Back at 205. I'm sorry, not back at 205. The first time ever, as a pro, I believe, he's competing in 205 for any promotion. So I think that's the right move for him.

And I think you will see the best version of him. And I think that's pretty good. So if you like him just like straight pick, that's cool. I'm just trying to give a little extra value. I think he's going to have a moment. After what might be an uneven night for Canadians, I think he's going to cap it off in like a nice way with a knockout. Here's the thing I like about that bet because I like pieces of that bad and I don't like

piece of that bet. Both of these men actually are from the contender series. They're both 2023 contender series guys. That season, I did my ordering a little differently, and Machado was the lowest tier. Just another guy, a guy who maybe sticks around, gets some fights, isn't spectacular in any way. Hibero was part of a very special category where he looked really good in that he looked like he had real offense, but he does not understand what defense is. And so I like this bet as a K-O bet in that because Hibero, he gets hit, he'll get hit a lot. also machado coming down to 205

a little bit more interest there I don't think he just matches up well at heavyweight I don't think it's really there weight division's still bad at light heavyweight so you can be successful in the weight class in general and not be giving up massive amounts of size that he was in some cases so I just don't want to be involved in this fight

both these guys are own two in the UFC machado you know doing the I'm going to drop down maybe that does you know lead to some big success for him, but I'm just out. If I were to bet, I would bet Hebero just as a doggar pass. Like, I don't really know what's going to happen, but mostly I'll just, I'll just be enjoying this as a fan and proudly rooting on the Canadian here because why not? The Canadian crowd needs some wins.

We really do. Speaking of a guy who he's given the Canadian crowd plenty of wins in his time. He is not. What are you talking about? He's six and seven, thank you very much, in the UFC. Six is a... Oh, okay. Compared to Dustin Stolfez, who's two and five in the UFC.

Did you? Okay. Mark Andre Bachel has given the Canadians plenty to cheer about in his time. I love the pronunciation. Yeah, not in Canada. Well, I was going to get to this, but he is actually in the UFC. One in three fighting in Canada. He had a win in his third fight, and then he lost his most recent one.

He was part of the 297 crew of male fighters that did not pick up a W. So one in three, one and three in Canada in the UFC, not great. I didn't even look at that. That is tough. It's bad. I can't, so you said you would stay away from the Machado-Hibera fight. I cannot recommend enough people staying away from this one. I think Barrio being a two-to-one favorite is crazy.

I like Mark Andre. I'm very happy that he's representing our country, does it proudly. His results are so inconsistent. And I know Dustin Stoltz-Bef before his most recent win. I think he won his last fight, right? That's probably why the... He won. No, no, he did not.

Okay. He got to win before. He got killed by Bruno Faheda. Oh, goodness me. He fought just last weekend. He did beat Puna Hill Soriano. Yes, that's what I was thinking of. Basically a year ago.

But I would say stay away. I just think there's no value in Bakuio to a straight bet. If you want to throw in a parley mate, but again, this has Parley Buster written all over it. Don't touch it. I wish Mark Contra the best. Hope Canada wins. I know Stoltzvus again is essentially a quote-unquote jobber, very poor-looking UFC record. I just still don't think that this is a lock, though.

So stay back. Could not agree more. Barrio minus 200-ish Stoltzvitz plus 170-ish. Stolzvitz is 2 and 5. the promotion, which is bad, but in his very slight defense, losses are Kyle Dawkes, who is okay. Hadolfo Vieira, is Adolfo, like, a very talented singular fighter. Gerald Mearsart, he's been around for ages and ages. Abis, Magamatov, acceptable level fighter, and then Bruno Faheda. He's lost to kind of mid-tier guys, and so, like, that's not the worst.

ever. I would in general, like you said, I favor Powerball. I favor I may be to get it done, but I just not not betting on this. Middleweighty is a word that comes to mind for this contest. Very. And I will not be betting on said middleweighty contest. I am however betting on this next fight. It is the last, the final main card, or the first, I suppose main card fight of the evening, Mike Malat, Canadian Mike Malat, taking on Trevin Giles in a welterweight contest. The odds favor Malat fairly substantially at this point,

roughly around minus 250. Come back on Giles plus 220. A.K., the last time we saw Mike Malott, Canadian Canada's own, I believe we were talking pre-USC-297. Mike Malott is Canada's best hope for a guy to make some noise. I agreed.

I was like he's going to go out there and beat Neil Magni. And for 13 and a half minutes, he was doing just that. And then he collapsed in the final minute against Neil Magny. I honestly am not sure I have ever seen a fighter fall off a cliff more steeply, more quickly than Mike Blah, who just imploded against Neil Magny in a fight. He was certainly about to win. How do you feel about Canadian Mike Malott coming off that tough performance? I feel I feel fine. It didn't play out the way I expected, but I did pick the right winner.

I had actually, people can go check my predictions, U.C. 297 on NMAFling.com. I had Magni. I did pick Magny. I thought by a decision, not by the way it went out at all. Did not predict that. But this is a squash match that can get behind yet. This is also a squash match to get some hype back for Mike Malott. Neil Magny is a top 20 or at least when they fought.

was a top 20 Walter. I still believe that. I think he's a very tough out for anyone. Mike is maybe just not there yet. Maybe he never gets there. But at that point, wasn't. So I was not surprised when Magny won. But I like him to beat Giles, as I'm sure he's supposed to do, as the odds suggest.

I think a straight bet's a little boring. I think he gets a finish. And this is a much, much better number. I see minus 135 inside the distance. Don't feel comfortable picking K or sub. I'm actually not sure. Those are both plus money. If you guys are smarter than me, I say,

Take a shot at one of those at the specific finish. But I do think inside the distance minus 135, super safe. I like that one. I mean, it's a reasonable bet. It's not what I've done. And for a very specific reason, A.K., because you bring up a great point. I do think that you are correct in that it is likely that Mike Mlock gets a finish here. I am picking him, and I've bet him straight up.

He is largely a finisher. Trevor Giles has never lost a decision. when he loses, he gets finished. Mike Mott has enough offense, I believe, to get that done. Think you're right. And then this to me is just a clear, also Mike Mollat has only ever finished, never doesn't go to decisions. When wins fights, he wins fights definitively. So I tinkered with the inside the distance for that reason because I think that you're objectively correct.

But the difference, while the number looks big, it's not enough. And I want that. I this is the this is being conservative right here because a minus one 35 on a hundred bucks pays out like 70 minus 250 which is the price I got him at that pays out 40 I'll take the 30 I'll take the missed 30 bucks in value to have the peace of mind that a win is a win however it comes and that is where I'm at I do want to throw one more thing out and this is mostly just because I want to make sure everyone who missed that fight understands. Round one, 20 to 5 in significant strikes in favor of him a lot.

Round 2, 21 to 6. Three minutes of control time. Just absolutely clubbing Magny around. Then two more minutes of control time, well on his way to winning this fight. And in the final minute and a half, Magni puts 40 strikes on him and finishes him. an unbelievable collapse that almost made me not back him. Like I almost got the ick just thinking about what happened in the 14th minute against Neil Magny. I think a lot of slips got torn off that night.

I'm going to say a lot, I think of a lot, either part of a parlay or just straight bet. That was rough. That was rough. Do you think, did you put any thoughts to a Giles upset? Because I said, Giles by decision, plus 450. If you are expecting him a lot to slip on a banana peel again as he did, I am not, I don't think that's, I don't think it's going to happen. I don't mind Jaws Bell, this isn't plus 450, but again, that's only if you're someone who's

like, oh, I need to have some sort of some underdog bet on this. And I'm like, I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I am very strongly behind him a lot when, but I think Giles, I don't think he would finish. I don't think he'd finish like Magnity could. And I think it would have to eke out something on the cards. To me, the case for Giles is that while he has a fair number of losses, they have come against very good opposition. Early in his tenure, you know,

he lost Zach Cummings, Gerald Mearshar. Good, like, okay fighters, not great fighters. But then he lost to Jigis Duplessi. He's currently the middleweight champion. I don't know if you guys are aware of that. Then he, when he drops to Welterweight, he lost to Michael Morales, who I believe is now ranked in the UFC,

maybe is a far for us. Gabriel Bond-Feme, very good fighter, and Carlos Bratis, who was probably about to, to get ranked if he's not already ranked with us. So he has just lost to very, very good fighters. And if that's conversely, he hasn't really beaten any good fighters, which is why I feel

okay in saying this. Like Roman DeLidez is his best win, I would say. Really? I didn't even, I forgot about that. Yeah. That's a good win. I mean, that's his best win. It's a lifetime ago.

It's a different weight class. So I don't particularly think he's a live dog, but I won't be flabbergasted. if he comes out here and wins. There's a reason this is not part of the climb, as it were. Probably a good call, yeah. And that lets us move right on down the line. We're into the prelims, AK, and we can maybe pick things up a little here, though not for this fight because you're a prelim main event.

I got thoughts, AK. What? Amin Zahabi. He's taken on Pedro Munoz in a bantam weight contest. How many thoughts could you have for this fight? I did not have that many thoughts. I have a lot of thoughts. This fight is a virtual pickum, depending on where you're looking.

The odds are basically minus one 10 either side. And they've been that way. So maybe slightly catered to Zahabi being the underdog. And AK, very simply put, I don't believe in Amin Zahabi. I don't believe that this line is just. I believe that people are forgetting who Pedro Munoz is. I don't. Amon Zahabi is not good.

I have never thought Amos was good. He's not bad, but he's just like not good. Like he beat Javi Bashra. And Javi Bashra is a guy who we like, but it's not a fully formed fighter. He's coming up.

And then like Riki Terseus is an okay win. Rishi Lang's an okay win. Pedro Munoz has been doing the damn thing for like a decade at this point. And yes, he's got a lot of red on his ledger right now. It's all against top 10 dudes. It's Jose Friginaldo.

It's Dominic Cruz. Marlon Cheeto Vera. Like that's the red on his ledger. This would be the worst loss of his career by such an astronomical level. The gap between the previous dudes he has lost to and Amon's a hobby is vast. I, like my favorite bet of the weekend. is Pedro Munoz to get it done, and I am on it at Pickermods. Yeah, I see him at Plus 104 on Forecasters and CloudBet.

Luckily, I didn't see him at Plus Money. I would have spent irresponsibly at Plus Money on him. Let's Pickham, like minus 115, right? Minus 110 each time. Okay, okay. So people out there, if you feel like Jed, you can get plus 104, Forecasters CloudBet. Tell me I'm wrong.

Tell me I'm wrong. You're not wrong. You're not wrong. However, everything you said there, Instead of the name Pedro Munoz, I almost feel like he could have put it in the name Josie Aldo ahead of the Mario Batista fight. You know, you wouldn't have said Mara Batista is not good.

I don't think he would have gone that far. You would not have said that. I actually think Mario Batista is good. We all think so. But we're talking about a bantam weight, a beloved Brazilian bantam weight, who, again, has only lost to such an elite name here and the gap between the fighter that they're facing

and their previous losses is enormous. I think we all agree with the Batista thing, and as you just stated with Muñoz's resume. So I'm just warning you, Jed, we were just down this road, and it hurt a lot. I think it hurt a lot of people, for many reasons, when that decision did not go all those ways. We could be headed to Splitty City here.

We honestly could. I would only tell people, goes the distance, minus 350, a fine parley piece. It's a very cowardly use of this fight. But if you've got some parley going with some other, you know, pretty that's you're confident about, toss this one in. I'm really confident that. Munoz is definitely not getting finished. If Zahavi finishes Munoz, I would be stunned.

Probably would be my 10 most, five most shocking results of the year because Munoz just does not get put away. And if it goes the other way with Munoz finishing him, it's possible. It's possible. I can't imagine you were. He's only been finished once in his career. It's unlikely. It's unlikely. But I'm just, but just want to go back to my warning, Jed.

Let's prepare to be hurt. It's a good warning. I'm not emotionally attached to Pedro Munoz and the same way into Josaldo. Also, for what it's worth, Josealdo should have won that fight. I know, I know. Like, if we lose that, you know, okay. But I, until last weekend, if you had told me is the hobby's going to knock out Pedro Munoz, that would have been the most surprising thing.

Now, I can be surprised by nothing because Max Holloway's chin has been cracked. I can't believe in anything anymore. There's nothing true left in this world. And so maybe Aemans Ahabia just knocks out Pedro Muno's. I don't see it. I think Pedro Muno is just going to outwork him, just be a much better fist fighter than Amos a hobby is. But I guess we'll get to see.

And, you know, if that happens, go Canada. Oh, Canada, for sure. Speaking more, O Canada, I mean, we're just in a run of Canadian fighters right now as a women's flyweight contest is up next, A.K. Ariani De Silva, nay, Lipski, taking on Yasmin Yasadavish, which I think I got at least pretty close to correct. That's how I do it. She says that that is like the Lithuanian way to pronounce it.

So maybe we're just being tryhards, but I like saying it that way. I think she's also, obviously, she accepts like Jazzavisius. Desavicious is how I think if you want to anglicize it. It's how I do it. But I don't think it's being tryhards to call people there. By there. I mean, I think it's pretty easy to just call people the name that they wish to be called. It's like, it's like Sharapova and Sharapova, right?

It's like I'm not going to, I like Sharpova. And I think most people would say Sharapov. It is Sharapov. It is sure. But I'm, you know, so this is, if people want to say jazz de Vizious, apparently she's she said she's cool with it. She said she's cool with it. She's cool.

She's cool. It's fine. But I'm, I'm going to make the effort to call her the name. name. We're cultured. We'll say yes. That's exactly what we are. And Yasadavis is your favorite.

Round minus 225. Come back on De Silva plus 185. The silver coming off a loss to Karina Silva. Obviously, very good fighter. Don't take too much. To me, this fight just comes down to. Can Jasmine get takedowns? If she can, I think she's going to win.

Karina Silva got a bunch of the. them against Ariana De Silva. I suspect Jasmine can do that and kind of just grind out a win. The Silva has never been submitted, so it seems extremely likely this fight is prone to going long.

As a result, over one and a half is part the line is not up yet. When that line drops, usually draft Kings has these alternate. A couple other sites do as well. When that line drops, I'll be pallet that with another over one and a half.

just for a little baby parley uh des Silva nine nine out of her 12 uc bouts have gone over one and a half all seven of yesadavis have gone over the one and a half so that will be uh just a little parley fodder and and moving on for me you got anything to say about this one uh i just want to know how much of a difference between uh over one and a half and fight goes the distance you're i don't see usually not much yeah yeah i don't see over one and a half and fight goes the distance would be sizable. Yeah, I'll just say, so if you're thinking, so just to give some idea of what one and a half could be, right now I just see minus 230 for goes of the distance.

So there you go. That gives people some idea if you want to go with that. Any, any, it's going to be like minus four, probably minus four, maybe minus five would be my guess. I don't think De Silva's a terrible underdog pick, but you're not getting amazing odds. I'm seeing plus 205 on four casters, and that's about you get. That's not amazing. That's not amazing for someone who's heading into enemy territory.

Like you said, Jed may be susceptible to take downs, the kind of, the kind of, you bullying style that Jasmine has when she's on. So, like, I don't think her winning is crazy, but if you see the line, maybe wait to see if that line moves a bit, maybe wait until Friday, early Saturday before you jump on there, if you think the Silva could pull off the subset, because as of this recording, I just, maybe the value's not there right now. Yeah, I would say this is a doger pass. I would not be betting Yasmin at, at this price.

I've just never been that sold on her, but I'm not like really sold on here on Lipski. there's so uh i just comfortable staying away betting me over uh you know women's flyweight fights tend to hit over one and a half they tend to hit over two and a half uh historically so feel comfortable there and uh i'm this is the first time a k the first time that i've been truly heartbroken i'll miss him every day i mean to talk to him you know i think about them all the time i'm talking of course about the great connor burkes who uh used to be on this program with me is no longer, no longer with us. He's with us in spirit.

He's alive. Can I, he's alive? Anyone listen? Connor's alive. Okay. Chad, flee. To the best thing we know, I can't say that definitively. I just text him the other day.

But I don't know if he was the guy answering me back. I can't speak to anything. So bad. So bad. This is the first time I'm really, really sad that he's been here because no fighter. Connor Burke's loves. lot of fighters. No fighter does he love more than Charles Jordane. Third round Jordan, the mythical fighter. Connor just absolutely love to support him. And Charles Jordan currently finds himself

it, oh, the number is moved. Previously was a pick-um with Victor Henry in their bantamweight contest. Now, Jordan a clear favorite. We're on minus 135, minus 140. The comeback on Henry plus 120, Henry, AKA, I think you probably know this, but if you don't. It's our good friend E. Casey Lyden's training partner. Damn right. And so he's getting back in there. He's fighting Charles Jordane.

How do you see this one playing out? Fight kills the distance minus 250. Boring, very likely. Again, for anyone who isn't paying attention, I've said a lot of go the distance are safe, feel free to parlay those that you're comfortable with. This is another logical one. But if you want to be sexy about it,

Henry by knockout plus 800. Oh, that is sexy. Now, this is a very, again, risky pick. Jardine just got knocked out by Jeanne Silva, but that's it. That's the only time Jardine's been knocked out. Jeanne Silva is an absolute killer. This guy's going to be racked up on.

John Silva rocks. He'll be racking up a lot of knockouts against guys who either rarely get knocked out or have never been knocked out before. You'll hear a lot of, well, John Silva was the first. So he was the first guy to beat Jardin. That does not tell me that, oh, well, he's susceptible to knock out.

Now and Henry's going to put him away. But again, just to make this a little more interesting, plus 800 by K.O., come on. I like it. I like it. Also, speaking of Gianz Silva, if you haven't read my Contender Series breakdown, go go check out this young man named Kevin Vallejos, 22-year-old Argentinian kid. He lost to Gianzegov on Contender Series in 2023. One of the best fights that's ever been on that show, he ends up losing Gianzilva gets the offer. He goes to get some wins on the regional circuit, comes back, absolutely demolishes his

opponent. This kid, kid's going to be good. Kid is going to be good. I love Gian Silva, Kevin Vallejo, so I love him as well. So, just pro tip for all you out there. AK already gave you the big pro tip, though, because I'm on the over one and a half here. Min is 550. I'm going to parlay that up with the Sylvia Sadovish, over one and a half. whatever it comes out to it'll probably be like minus two 80 or something big price i could maybe find a third to throw in there something simple and easy to uh do it maybe like the munoz over one and a half something like that but i just really like both of these jordaine 11 of his 14 the uc have gone over one and a half uh henry four of his five and the only one that didn't was that no contest

both dudes very very durable fights gonna go long uh so really like that i do think this is going to a decision unless unless you're right and we get the kill let me tell you Casey will love that if Victor Henry comes out here and gets a knockout that's for you Casey jad we got a lot of fights left I don't know how many fights around this car are like 25 fights on this car we still got a five okay okay well we'll pace it up fortunately I'm actually almost done with bets at this point I got a couple left yeah got a couple left and we move on to a featherweight contest Jack Shore taking on Yusuf Zalal. And Zalal, a healthy favorite.

Biggest on the card. Minus 265. Come back on Shore at plus 215. And how the mighty have fallen for Old Shore. Is he bad? What is this? What are these numbers? Is he bad?

The price has fallen pretty considerably from where yesterday's price ain't today's price. Okay. And that appears to be the case for Jack Shore who came into the O.C. got some wins. People were very, were buzzing, absolutely buzzing about Jack Shore. And now back to back law, or not back to back, because I guess there was the Makwan Amir Connie, but the Ricky Simone loss, I think soured some people to him. Sure. And then the Ewanerson Brito loss, I think people don't remember what happened here. Because I got to tell you, I thought exactly what you said when I saw this. Like, what is happening in Jack Shore? And so I just, I went ahead and bet him. I'm on the

underdog here plus 210 was the price I got him at. Yes, he lost you, Anderson, Brito. That fight was extremely competitive, and he lost because a chasm opened up on his shin. Like, one of the weirdest injuries you've ever seen, either from a leg kick or from a check, I'm not sure which one opened it, but a gash on his shin that just split open to a point where the doctor was like, dude, your leg is in two. We got to call this. He wanted to fight not really a TKO in the traditional sense of that term.

Like I said, he was very competitive with a guy I like a lot in Ewanerson Brito. I think Zolol is quality fighter. But again, this is a guy who got cut from the UFC. He got cut from the UFC, put some work in, came back, and he's looked incredible since coming back. I am not taking this away from him. But I just feel like there's a whole ton of value on Jack Schroar at this price. And so I'm already on him.

Yeah, and Zalalal, the Corontoa win was great, but outside of that, he hasn't been facing the best guys. It was three straight- Jarno-Arens is in a world-beater? Jarno-Arens who is no longer with the UFC, I'm pretty sure. He's not a world-beater. Yeah, and then three straight wins on the Colorado scene, shout us to Colorado. And I like Ulylis-Sal. I think he's good.

I just think Jack Shore is also good, and people are getting a little mixed up just because he's, this is strictly like a record thing. He's one and two. Zala has won five-st-law. straight. I'm saying plus two 32 on forecasters. So people, if you're out there, you can grab that number. I say have at it.

I still think Jack Shore was good. This is weird. This is definitely a lot of recency bias. I think that is affecting the line here. And maybe I'm wrong. Maybe there's a lot of second run up with the USC is for real. But I'm with you. What do you guys do?

The howling, the wolf pack. Wolfpack wager. Yeah. You know, if you were here where you guys could have done a wolf pack wager, but I'm not a wolf. I mean, we'll never have the Wolfpack Rager again. We have to retire with Connor's exit. I am interested to see Zoll throws a lot of calf kicks,

so maybe he comes out and just tries to reopen that wound, and maybe that's it. But I honestly think Shores is going to take him down a bunch and have a lot of success here. So we'll see, but I'm on two underdogs this week. Derek Lewis is one. Jack Shores is number two. Good picks.

Feeling comfortable with it. We'll see how it ends up rolling. Back to the heavyweights though, A.K. As we keep moving down the line, Alexander Hormanov, taking on Rodrigo, Nassamento.

Your betting favorite at this point in time, very close. Pick them in some places. Nassiminto, a slight favorite in others, though, minus 115, minus 105.

You're looking at a very, very tightly contested about. I didn't realize the odds were going to change. I probably would have bet them had I known they're going to change. Certainly not going to do it. it now.

A.K., before I ask you, your thoughts, I need you to understand something important about this fight. Uh-huh. Two ranked heavyweights, baby. What? Buried on the prelims. Not in our rankings. On paper, this is the third best fight of the evening.

What are they in the UFC? They're not ranked in the NBA fighting global rankings. What is their official UFC ranking? Sir, I can't believe you don't know this off the top of your head. I'm ashamed. Romanov is number 13 and Nassimento is number 15. Goodness me. On paper, again, the third best fight of the weekend.

And you're getting it early in the day, so you don't have to like wait for it. Everybody at home, they're like, man, I get my palate sated with this delicious heavyweight contest ahead of us. I don't know what's happening right now. I'm just going to say I'm surprised in none of that, Jed, did you mention the words heavyweight over? this is going over one-to-half it sure is and I'm on that bet oh you are okay okay I was sorry I didn't mean to steal your thunder yeah it has to be right well did you get at I'm seeing the best I saw was minus 170 what did you that is that is the price I purchased it at yeah this is this is

going now I go in the distance plus 140 that's a little shaky I could see something stupid happening in the third round or one of these guys like casting out and just getting like ground and pounded or something so but over one a half come on this is this has overwritten all over it. Romanov is really he's no Carl Williams, but I think he's right up there in heavyweight overlandia as quite a revered figure. He

makes a match of him. He's about 50-50 on hitting over. But Nassimento. Nassiminto, a little higher, though four in a row is the key thing for Nassiminto. He's really found his groove in the over situation. This is going to devolve into the

ugliest, sweatiest thing you've ever seen. very quickly. If Romanov can take him down, he will win the fight, and if he cannot, he will lose the fight. I don't know if he can. They may just be hugging against the fence for long periods of time. But yeah, this doesn't need a breakdown. I wouldn't bet on either side comfortably or confidently,

but I feel pretty good about that over one and a half, given the texture of what this fight's going to look like. And we can keep moving down. We've got three fights left. Bannumweight contest. Sirhay City taking on Garrett Armfield. City, your favorite around minus 150 Armfield comeback plus 125-ish. Obviously, the numbers are up for debate at various places.

So, AK, any thoughts on this one? Because I'll just, I'll lead off and say, I don't. Okay. I think this is going to be a striking matchup. Both do not shoot takedowns. I didn't really like City that much coming off contender series. and I just don't. He won on contingencies.

I don't know if you know the circumstances. He won controversial early stoppage. It was like a little early. It wasn't that bad, but it was early. Then they rematched in his UFC debut and he ends up losing that. I don't know what to make of him. Carrad-onfield up and down guy. I'm just sticking.

All of Armfield's issues seem to be in his grappling, which I don't think is likely to happen here. So I'm just staying away. Jed, I cannot responsibly tell you to pick Armfield by submission plus 1,600, which I just think is fun. I can't responsibly tell you that. His two career submission wins, however, I had to look at to dig deep here. Alex Macias, three pro fights, has in Fawkes since 2021, and Ernest Walls, a sterling two and 21. So I can't responsibly tell you to make that bet.

But I can irresponsibly tell you to splash a couple of bucks on that. Because club and sub, a surprising take. Like it's probably going to be a striking battle, but you never know maybe Armfield decides to mix some martial arts. I just feel like something funny can happen early in the night. Otherwise, otherwise, city minus 140, probably the smart bet. But I thought we were here to party, Jed. I thought we were here to get crazy.

That's a party bet. I respect. I thought we're here to get great. But city minus 140 is okay. We're, it's supposed to be fun. We said all the time. And that would be. very, very fun.

Our pin ultimate, aka our second fight of the evening, Chad on Heliger, taking on Cody Gibson, another Bantamoy contest for this one. And your odds right now have Gibson as a fairly considerable favorite minus 190,

come back on on Heller, plus 160-ish or so. And A.K., I know that this is, this is a fight near and dear to your heart. I would have brought you back on for Edmonton, I would have brought you for this. I mean, to talk about this fight, I know you can go forever because Gibson famously lost in the finals of the ultimate fighter. I know that this is your baby.

Are we just riding the Gibson train as the tough finalist? I think so, man. I don't know. Like, Chad and Helga is weird. He's got two UFC wins there against Charlam Post-Crigory, who just got released this week. And Jesse Strader, a nice guy probably a. bit over his head in the UFC for people who remember the two fights he had. He does have a win over Brady Highstand.

He does. And then he also beat Gaffrov on Contender Series, which was interesting. I think Gophrov's good? I don't know. And I think Cody Gibson is good. So I'm so confused here. You said Gibson is the favorite, right? Gibson is your favorite.

As he should be. And if I'm reading this right, if you can get him inside the distance, knockout or submission or other weirdness, plus 240. I think he can finish Chad and Hellinger. So I actually really love plus 240 Gibson inside of this. I know most people are probably looking at this and just see decision written all over this. And that's, that's, again, why the odds are what they are. I understand.

But again, if you're feeling a little crazy. And if you're like me, you're picking Gibson to win, I'm going to see him get it done before the final bill. I'm not betting on this fight for one very specific reason. I do think, I mean, on Heller can't wrestle. at all. So Gibson probably can just do that. But I don't know if you know this, A.K., because I didn't know this until I dug into it. And as soon as I saw it, it gave me the biggest ick that I've ever icked.

Do you know that Cody Gibson has a loss, not on the regional circuit? He has a loss in the UFC to Manny Gamburion. Why did that? Why does this trouble you so? Because that Manny Ginginvaryon is a billion years old. Okay. Like, in my mind, Mani Gamburian is a part is a different phase of MMA. And that means that Gibson has been around for a billion years where he could have lost to Manvo Gamburian.

It just, it's like if you told me, if you told me, hey, you're about to bet on a fighter who has a law. I'm trying to think of somebody of like similar qualifications. should be like, man, I don't, that, you're still fighting. You were around enough to fight that guy in the UFC and you're still going, I can't do it. I just, I can't believe in anybody who did that. And he was the first UFC opponent of Al Jemay Sterling. How about that? I mean, we've got some six degrees of Cody Gibson going on here.

I feel like if you, if you want to play that game. Cody Gibson is out there connected to people, I suppose. But yeah, rule of thumb, I'm just never betting on. someone who lost a man again, Bury. And it won't come up that often. At this point in time, not going to be that many people that applies to, but it applies here.

And so I'm out on Cody Gibson. That brings us to our first fight of the evening, our last fight to talk about, a women's flyweight contest, Jamie Lynn Horth, taking on Ivana Petrovich. And if you have a lot to say about this fight, I will be astonished because there's just not that much to say.

No. Horth lost a close fight to Veronica Hardy last year. Petrovich can wrestle Horth not a great wrestler maybe there actually is value in my mind on Petrovich but I am just I ain't doing it I'm not being a part of that I'm out entirely on this fight

I'm not even betting it over anything like that I'll just I'll ease my way into UFC Edmonton as a fan I feel pretty confident a Horth win Oh Canada I'm going you know let's get this off on the right foot Horth by decision minus 125

But that's it. That's where I'm going. That's it. That's it. I love it. So which Canadians are you picking to win? You're picking horse to win. Who am I actually pick? Who would I actually pick to win? The Canadians are picking. Okay. Let me go from the higher part of the card. Machado I like. Malot I like. Malot I like. This is a hobby. I don't think I made a call either way. Let me get back to that after I make more predictions Friday. I like the Silva underdog pick. But I will be picking Yassadavishis. I don't actually really don't like Jordan to win. So I'm not picking him. and Horth, that's it. So less than well under 50%. So you parley those four up. Oh boy. Plus 380.

Well, Jed, it's funny you mention parley because shall I break out the Canadians? Shall I break out these special? Oh, yeah. Okay. I did this before 2997, I think.

I don't remember, and obviously did not come close to hitting five male fighters lost the two women one. Yasmin Yasdavish and Jenna Roberts. All right. So this is all on Fandual. All Canadians win, Jed? all Canadians.

Nine fights involving Canadians. Only one underdog in there, Chad and Hellinger. That's plus $9.698. $5 would win you $4.84. So just under $500. $5 a $5 to win. If somehow every Canadian managed to win, I really, really do not see that happening.

Is that a Fandual preset thing? Or is that you plugging in all of it? I plugged it in. Yeah, I don't know if they have a special. Yeah. They might have a special thing. It feels like a special, some plan to do that. But okay, cool.

If you want to be smart and just the women, like 297, you just go, yes, the dove, which is a horrid, that's plus 114. So maybe a little safer. Again, the women delivered a 297, the men. Don't hate that, honestly. That's not bad. And then I didn't do this last time because I was trying to be positive, but what the F? The F? All Canadians lose.

Plus two. Oh, you know, I made one mistake in here. But anyway, this is roughly, it'll come to something plus 280,000, something like that. And $5 will win you about like $14,000. So if you really feel like the Canadians are going to F up here, that's the look into it. But I think we'll get a mix here. I wouldn't go either one. All Canadians win, all Canadians lose.

I think you definitely have a mixed bag this time around. Hopefully, hopefully we get some Canadian wins. Hopefully. And that's it, okay. 14 fights up, 14 fights down. did not think we'd spend this much time on old Edmonton, but you know, it's okay because we're going to Canada. The Great White North deserves a little extra love and attention.

And next week, folks, the train keeps right on rolling. We ain't stopping. And two men who were mentioned on this weekend, they headline next week. Neil Magnu taking on call us practice at UFC Apex 100. We made it. What those noises? We made it, fam.

Some people are saying the biggest event of November. People are saying Apex 100, biggest event of November. Maybe the biggest event of the quarter. Can't rule it out. What would be higher? There's like another show with like a couple of unranked heavyweights at the top, I think. I don't know, but they, I mean, they're scratching me right where I itch. Henneye de Hitter, Hennier de Hidder making his UFC debut next weekend.

It's Gerald Mearsart. We get to watch Cody Garbrandt get got. I mean, this is a real card for the real ones. And we'll be back to break it all down next week on No Betts Park. Thank you guys for tuning in. Thank you, A.K., for hopping on and guiding me through the Great White North to hopefully victory and many, many dollar bills. And see y'all next week.

Love y'all.