MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Brandon Moreno Get Back On Track At UFC Mexico City?

Episode Date: February 26, 2026

The UFC is back in Mexico City. This Saturday, the UFC returns Arena CDMX for another fight card in Mexico’s capital city, headlined by a flyweight matchup between former two-time champion Brandon Moreno and rising contender Lone’er Kavanagh. Moreno was originally set to fight Asu Almabayev, but after Almabayev pulled out of the event on just a few weeks’ notice, Kavanagh was pulled from his scheduled bout against Bruno Silva to step in, creating an unexpected main event, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew flies solo to dive into all the action at this weekend’s event. Topics discussed include where Moreno is in his career, how the short-notice might affect Kavanagh, whether or not Chito Vera will actually try to do stuff in the co-main event against David Martinez, if Daniel Zellhuber can start to live up to his potential, a ton of Contender Series prospects making their debuts, a three-headed Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 149 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Barg. I am your host, Jedmishu of MNAFighting.com. You probably already know that. But if you don't, and this is your first time here, welcome. Glad to have you. Hope you stick around as we are going to dive into UFC Mexico City,

which goes down this Saturday at Arena CDMX in the aforementioned Mexico City. before we dive into it though with our betting breakdown for the week a couple of notes you know housekeeping issues sorry for a lack of a no-bets barred last week for ufc houston uh my schedule just got real hectic and i didn't have a guest and so we just ultimately passed on it because i also didn't really like the card for betting uh but my bad i could have done a lot better there uh unfortunately as far as that goes the climb did fail last weekend. I, uh, I did carry on the climb posted on social, talk about some of the shows. We climbed step seven with Strickland Hernandez over two and a half rounds. And as you know by now, Sean Strickland ruined my hopes and dreams, recording a TKO

finish at two, 23 of the third round, meaning I may. missed it by just a couple of seconds. Stone Cold Brutal. That's the name of the game, baby. I mean, that's what we do. And if you don't know what the climb is, don't worry. You're going to find out as we have some big goals for this week. As far as I believe this is version 11 of the climb.

So hopefully we can get a run going. I felt so good last week. I was so confident heading into that third round. And it all went to crap really fast. So hopefully that will not happen this week, but we are going to play with a little bit of fire in some regards. But let's move on to this week UFC Mexico City 2026. Obviously, this is a yearly stop for the promotion at this point. And when they go to Mexico, very often they go to Mexico with Brandon Moreno, which is what they are doing on Saturday.

Brandon Moreno set to headline another event. Originally, he was scheduled to face Asu Alma Baev in the main event of the main event of Saturday's not pay-per-view, sorry, roadshow event. Instead, Asu Omavayev pulls out of the fight and in-steps, previously ranked number 15 Lonnie Kavanaugh, now unranked based on some curious peccadillos from the UFC rankings. But big, big opportunity for Lonnie Kavanaugh, Brandon Moreno, looking to get back on track.

So let's dive into that. And then the rest of the card, Moreno is the betting favorite in this main event. Mine is 220. The comeback on Lonnie Kavanaugh, plus 170. Moreno, obviously, a former two-time champion in this weight class. Just two and three over his past five, though, right? He is not an old man, just 32, but a lot of miles and some tougher performances lately,

including his most recent one, a TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira at UFC 323 in December, the first stoppage loss of his professional. a career. Lonnie Kavanaugh on the other side, two and one in the UFC coming off Contender Series a couple years ago where I rated him as very highly as a prospect.

But he was knocked out in his last fight. He lost to Charles Johnson in August at UFC Shanghai in a fight that I think he was winning pretty comfortably. And then he got got and was, you know, slept pretty hard. So he is looking to rebound.

He was originally set to fight Bruno Silva in two weeks, I believe, at one of the APEC shows a couple of weeks, got pulled from that when Moreno needed an opponent and it was somehow, for some reason, given the option. So big opportunity for Lonnie

Kavanaugh to go from a pretty tough setback loss to now a win over a former two-time champion. And Brandon Moreno is still very highly ranked in the weight class as well. So suddenly, Flai Kavanaugh wins, he will jump up to, you know, something like six or seven in

the UFC flyweight rankings. to note Kavanaugh never been an underdog before and Moreno only 6 and 4 is a betting favorite so something to keep in mind as you are placing your wagers on this fight as far as this fight goes

I'm genuinely really excited for it I know the circumstances are curious and I do not believe that Lani Kavanaugh deserves this opportunity very clearly I think that somebody else could have gotten the call here but setting that aside I really like the matchup

Moreno is one of the most dynamic fighters in this weight class in all phases. He is extremely good. Tatsuro Tira managed to really run over him in a way that surprised a lot of people, even me, who has been a huge Tetsu Tiber backer for a long time. But you don't see him get run over like that in general because he is just so dynamic, so capable in every aspect of this sport. Kavanaugh, meanwhile, a little bit more of a specialist, much more of a striker. uh has a sort of karate henry sohudo-esque bouncing style combination game fast hands and terrific

takedown defense and i do wonder how that's going to play here because obviously coming off a keo loss still developing still a young man um not as young as maybe you would think but not an old man and still kind of piecing his game together but he doesn't have any five round experience and this is of course a five round fight and he wasn't training for a five rounder and suddenly he is thrust into a five-round fight. And so that raises some real questions, right, about, like, how does that fit for him, stepping in on short notice to add 10 minutes to about against a guy who's pretty much exclusively fought five rounds for the last several years of his career and is historically

very good at adjusting as a fight goes on because he has so many tools available to him. That being said, Lonnie Kavanaugh is my boy, right? Like, I think logically Brandon Moreno should actually be a bigger betting favorite than he is. And I think the only reason he's not is because the tire of performance has people a little shook. Maybe Brandon Moreno is on the decline. And he's got a lot of miles on him, so it could happen. But I think logically, he should be a much bigger betting favorite. But stylistically, I think Lonnie Kavanaugh's got a lot of things going for him here.

Marino should struggle to take him down. And if we're just talking a striking contest, I think he's, you know, I think Lonnie's a little bit. better there. I think he's a little faster, works in combination a little bit better. The other side of that, though, Lonnie Kavanaugh, not nearly as durable as Moreno, so even if they are strictly striking, there's always the opportunity for

Moreno to get him there. I'm going to bet on Lonnie Kavanaugh. He's my guy. Plus 170. This is not one of those bets that I think is maybe the best value. Again, I probably think that on paper, Marino should be a bigger favorite, but

I've backed Lonnie Kavanaugh coming off Contender Series. I've never felt as good about it as I felt as good about him, right? His performances in the UFC have not really lived up to the hype I had built for him, but I'm still rolling with him. He's still, you know, he's giving me a plus money if he cashes. And if he doesn't, you know, lesson learned, I should not have doubted that Brandon Moreno still has the juice. Because again, he's only 32, man, and losing a touch to retire.

might be the best flywood on earth. We're going to find out in the very near future. So I'm rolling with Lonnie Kavanaugh in the main event. And that brings us to the co-main event, a bantamweight contest as Marlon Chito Vera takes on David Martinez. Cheeto, the underdog, plus 220, Martinez minus 275, as your betting favorite. Cheeto, just one and four over his past five,

coming off that split decision loss to Amon Zahehmia. Vancouver in October. Martinez, a contender series prospect from a couple of years ago as well, 2 and 0 in the promotion, picked up a unanimous decision win over Rob Fon at UFC San Antonio back in September.

Betting trend to note here, I mean, Martinez doesn't have a lot to reckon with, but Cheeto, only 4 and 8 as an underdog. He's cashed a couple of tickets, but largely when he is instilled as an underdog, Vegas knows what it is doing in that regard. And it seems pretty easy to instill him as an underdog.

Because at this point in time, Chito Vera simply does not do stuff. He always was a bit of a slow starter. But in that real good run of his career, right, where Chito ended up stringing together four or five wins and getting, I mean, ultimately he did get a title fight, but was on the cusp of like a legitimate one before he just got handed one because he had a win over Sean O'Malley. Like in that peak run of Chito's career, he would be a slow start. but he would come alive as the fight went on you know that's how he knocked out Dominic Cruz in the fourth round of him he was losing that fight but he has such dynamic offense when he chooses to engage with it that it can be he can overcome a slow start lately those slow starts are just slow finishes as well he maybe comes alive a little bit in the final

round of fights but you you watch his fights and it is entirely his coaching staff pleading please just do stuff, please just do stuff, please just do stuff. You got to try and hit him. You got to try and punch him. And it's just simply not what Chito Vera is about right now. Of course, in the buildup to this fight, he is saying all the right things that he is going to come out with more aggression, be more active. I'll believe when I see it. I hope so because an aggressive Chito Vera is as a dangerous Chito Vera.

I'd be very interested to see a Chito Vera who is trying to hurt opponents. We just haven't seen that in, it feels like a lifetime. Jack Slack, shout out to him, has like the best summation of Cheevera in my mind, where it's, he fights like a guy who is afraid that he is going to gas out despite being like a legendary cardio monster who runs 10 miles a day. And that is sort of what happens here. And on the other side of this, I really like David Martinez coming off Contender series. And he has shown to be what I thought he was.

he is not like a world beater you know he is not some guy you were going to look at and be like that that dude is going to win the belt and hold it forever but he's very very very good at just about everything he is going to work with a high high rate he's very durable like he is a fighter's kind of fighter and that matches up very well against the cheeto is probably not going to do stuff also on top of that Martinez is proven to be durable right like he is a he's a tough guy to get out of their never been finished. And so I think that even if Chito does maybe open up the gas a little bit more, he's still probably going to get outworked.

And I don't think we're going to get a scenario like we got against Rob Fon, where he can just make up the difference in volume with big single strikes. You know, I think it's just, it just is what it is here. And so I like David Martinez to get a win. But on those same time, along those same lines, Cheeto Vera is, cannot. be finished. He cannot be finished. And so give me David Martinez by decision at minus 165. And yeah, just feeling pretty good about both of those fights. Moving on, the feature bout of the evening, Daniel Zellhuber takes on King Green in a lightweight contest. Zell Huber, big betting

favorite, minus 500. King Green plus 350. your underdog. A bit surprising, given, you know, sort of where we're at in these careers, because we just saw this fight. Zell Hubert, and a two-fights skated in the most recent one of those was a unanimous decision lost to Michael Johnson at UFC 318 back in July. Frankly, a very, very similar fight to the one we're getting here. King Green, two and three over past five. He is coming off a win, though. A split decision win over Lance Gibson at the final fight night event of 2025 back in December.

So where are we going here? We're going to the climb, baby. If you listen to BTL this week, you already know that I am, I'm a man who believes in second chances. I believe in giving people an opportunity to make up for their past failings, for ways they have hurt you before. And Daniel Zalhuber, he's a man who has hurt me before. He ruined a climb not that long ago.

Now, in his defense, Kevin Holland would have ruined that same climb that same night. But still, he did it at UFC 318. And we're going to give him the opportunity because, like I said, this is the same fight. This is basically the same thing as fighting a very aged Michael Johnson. He's fighting a very aged King Green. Big betting favorite. It should be winnable. This is a fight that he should be.

be able to win, but will he? I don't know, but we're going to trust that he can because he is going to be the first of a triple climb. The tripod, the strongest formation, you know, in the world. We love a triangle. So we're putting three legs this week. And if you don't know what the climb is, very simply put, the climb is my goal, my desire, my hope to string together 30 consecutive minus 500.

bets. Maybe not 30. Well, you know, we're trying to get the number, but we're basically trying to turn $100 into $20,000. And you do that by minus 500, roll over those winnings over and over again. If you get somewhere to 29 to 30, depending on which odds you're using, that 100 bucks should turn into 20 grand. And that's what we're going to try and do. We have been trying to do it. We got up to 21 one time, which was electric. Haven't been back to double digits since. So we're going to try and rocket ship up with three of them and give a man an opportunity to make up for his previous failings. If he doesn't, Daniel Zell Huber, you're dead to me. So you're on notice, Daniel Zell Huber.

Let's get after it. Moving on to, again, the Flyway Division. Here's the thing about U.C. Mexico City. After the big three fights, there are very few highlights as far as name recognition goes. In general, this is a fairly weak fight card, but I think a lot of the fights are going to be fun. A bunch of squash matches, too. But mostly, we only have like one middleweight fight on this whole card, I think. Maybe we have two middleweight fights, actually.

Two middleweight fights. And everything else is, you know, 155 and below. We are playing the primary weight classes, all Bangor City. So you're going to have some fun, even if maybe from here and out the name recognition is going to be fairly low. Speaking of that, as I said, it's back to the flyweight division as Edgar Scheirez takes on Felipe Bunis.

Shira is minus 350 betting favorite bonus plus 260. Shira is two and two in the UFC. I'm sorry, two, two and one no contest in the UFC. Coming off a submission win over C.J. Vergara in March. Bunas, one and two in the promotion, coming off a loss to Rafael Estevan in August by decision. Not much on betting, obviously neither of these dudes have too much going on.

You know, they don't have a deep well of UFC experience. I will say that Shirez three and O Mexico City, so maybe that explains a bit of his big favoritism here. Bunez, first time he's not fighting the apex. I think this is going to be a fun one, right? It's going to be a fun grappling match, both dudes, a lot of submissions, a couple submission losses. They want to mix it up on the ground.

Bunez does have some cardio concern, so I do favor Chiraez, but I think this price is very big. And I simply don't want to be involved in this fight from a betting perspective. Because I'm not confident who will get the better of the grappling. And I'm not confident should one get the better, that they'll be able to submit the other. And I do think this is primarily a fight that is on the floor. So first bout of the evening that I will not be making any wages upon.

Not so for the next one, another flyweight contest, a main card flyweight contest, as Imano Rodriguez takes on Kevin Borjas. Rodriguez, a pretty, pretty big betting favorite, minus 450. Borjas plus 350, you know, perhaps concerning. Because this is Rodriguez's UFC debut. He was off the most recent Contender Series season. I believe we have six fighters from the 2025 Contender Series season on this card, which is a heck of a lot. one of them one matchup even has two contenders series dudes from that season fighting each other but Rodriguez I loved him coming off that season I graded him as a five-star prospect he is super talented young trained by Daniel Cormier who big ups him beyond belief

a dynamic electric dude coming out of a great camp looks to be a natural fighter when you watch him compete you think that dude naturally can fist fight so much so that I comped him to um vanderly silva so that that gives you whatever you need off that borah's tough dude but he's one and three in the UFC he's coming off of ud lost to sumadherjee um you know good fighter good test good show like he's gonna he's gonna make you work for it but i expect big things from eminore Rodriguez and so this is leg two of my climb this weekend doing it with the debutante but five-star prospect off a contender series for me

and I'm always going to back guys who I think have this much potential so boom that's where we go that's leg two of the climb the third leg coming later in the card as we move on

to a bantamweight contest again all banger divisions baby Santiago Luna taking on angel Pacheco Luna big favorite minus 600 Pacheco plus 425 Luna won his UFC debut knocking out Kwongle at U of UFC Noce in September.

Pacheco, meanwhile, has not fallen a long time, almost two full years. He is 0 and 1 in the promotion, lost to Kallin Lachran in March of 2024 in his lone octagon fight. This is very obviously, you know, you can just look at that and know this is set up fight. That's what the odds tell you.

Pacheco's been out for two years. Not really like a guy to hang your hat on in general. Luna, I don't know what to make him as a prospect. He's 21 years old and looks, you know, he's doing all the things that make you think, okay, pretty decent. 7 and 0, right, as a prospect, as a very young man, all finishes. 7 and 0 and all finishes is all good. Small amy career where he's undefeated as well.

Hasn't fought great opposition as you would anticipate. But he's fought a couple of people with OK records, obviously Kwongle being one of them. And he's run them all over. So you got to get behind that and think that's going well. But I'm not going to climb with him because instead I'm parlaying him up. I've got a gimmick parlay this weekend and he is one half of it. I'll let you know what the gimmick is as we get to his compatriot in that gimmick parley. But in general, I would largely just pass on this.

He is Luna is parley fodder, but a 21-year-old person, maybe you just don't commit your resources there. but I suspect he's going to roll right over Angel Pacheco. Moving on to the 185 pound division. Again, the heaviest weight class competing this weekend as Ryan Gandra takes on Jose Funky Cold Medina. That's not actually his fight nickname, but it is the name. I will give him forever. Gandra, again, a huge betting for minus 750,

Medina plus 525. This is Gandra making his UFC debut, another one of the recent contender series Sineas. Medina, meanwhile, a four-fight skid, three losses in the UFC, and he lost a contender series but got a contract anyway, I believe, on short notice for his UCDBU. He's coming off the submission loss to Dusko Todorovich in September. I did not think super highly of Gandra coming off contender series.

I graded him as a one-star, just a guy. I compared him to Johnny Walker, not favorably. He is, he's, you know, he's a guy. with a lot of offense and nothing much to hang your hat on that I saw. But I've been wrong about these prospects before. And certainly I think he's set up to look very, very well here. He does have finishing capabilities. And Medina is a guy you can finish.

So I expect Gantra to win. But at this price, I'm not, and a total lack of confidence in him long term anyway. I'm not betting on it. I am staying away from this one as well. Not so with this next one, though, as we shift our, I'm sorry, the previous fight was the start of the prelims, because for some reason, ranked women's ban on weights get no love in the UFC. They are never the feature prelim. They're never on main cards.

They're just buried in the prelims. And that's what we've got here as Eileen Perez takes on Macy Chieson, Perez, minus 185 betting favorite, the comeback on Chiason plus 150, Perez on a four-fight winning streak, which I was supposed. surprised. I did not realize she had racked up that many in a row. She picked up a UD win over Carol Hosa at UFC 311 13 months ago, right, January of 2025. Meanwhile, Jason, two-fights kid was on the cusp of maybe being a title contender and has now lost two in a row, including her most recent one to Yana Santos at UFC 320 back in October. Perez, Forno is a betting favorite, so Vegas has her dialed in.

Chase on two and two is a dog. Just something to keep in mind. Weird to feel about this fight because Jason's obviously going to have a huge size advantage. She's a featherweight who occasionally tries to fight at 135 and even more occasionally does make the weight class. She's missed weight several times, forced catch weights. Frankly, wouldn't be at all surprised if we got another catch weight fight because Jason comes in a few pounds overweight on Friday. that being said, I do think that matters. Like Perez is not an enormous, she's a physical Bannonweight, but not an enormous one.

And her game is largely built around pressure and getting her grappling going. I mean, she scores a lot of takedowns. And Chiazun, very physical and has historically been pretty good at defending takedowns. And so if you can stymie that aspect of Perez's game and then just be bigger than her and more physical than her, might be a huge problem for Eileen Perez. I was looking at the over two and a half because in general this feels like a fight that's going to go to the judge's scorecards and the odds certainly suggest it. But if you actually look at the numbers, both Chiasan and Perez get finishes about half the time. Like we are not going that deep by half of their fights.

And so you're not getting a great price on something like that, which is pretty tough. So instead, I just bit the bullet. And I'll probably get burnt on this because she has underperformed my expectations. Basically the last few times out, and if she has to kill herself to make weight and just sort of drops off, then that's what it'll happen. But I'm back at Mesa Chiasana at a dog price plus 150, my second dog of the evening. Technically, the last dog, though, will speak about one more sort of in a moment. But we move on and we move back to the men's band-in-weight division as Christian Quinoez-Kinonez takes on Chris Mutino. Kinones, minus $6.50, Mutino plus 475.

Kinone is on a two-fight skid and hasn't fought in almost two full years. Actually, I think two full years now. Submitted by Haoni Barcelos in 2024, February of 2024. Meanwhile, Moutinho, 0 and 3 in the UFC, though there is a bit of a break there. He lost two, went on the regional, picked up some wins, came back to the promulmonary. came back to the promotion last summer at UFC Atlanta as a walkover win functionally from Malcolm Walmaker, who did knock him out back in June, but still, you know, gets to keep his job in the UFC and searching for that elusive first UFC win.

Mucinio is a set-up opponent very obviously, but Kenona is coming off a two-year layoff and is not a world-beater. So this is a very, very big price. I would not touch Christian Quinoez at this price. I think he's going to win. He's more dynamic on the feet. But Moutinho's tough. Maybe he can make this scrappy something close. If you want to look at a point spread bet on Chris Moutinho,

that frankly might not be the worst thing you've ever done. And let me pull that up right now because I put a note to look at it, but I never did. You know, you can get Chris Moutinho at minus seven and a half points at plus 700. That is, that cannot be correct. That is just, I'm going to have to investigate this more thoroughly because that is so many points for Chris Moutinho. I mean, basically that spread suggests that he is going to get finished. And it's entirely possible.

But Christian Rodriguez is not like, again, just not a world beater, man, not a guy on there. So, okay, yeah, incorrect. It is you can get Chris Moutinho plus seven and a half. for plus 180. So basically that is, as long as Christian, as long as Chris Mutino doesn't lose 3027s or get finished, you'd cash a plus 180 ticket. That's not bad, man.

I think there's some value there. I'm not going to take it, I don't think, but I don't have a ton of faith in Christian Kino's, Kino is at this price. So for me, it's just a pass. Moving on, though, to the featherweight division, Douglas Silva-day Andrage, taking on Javier Reyes, Silver Day Andge, plus 190 underdog, Javier Reyes, minus 240.

Douglas Silver Day and Josh, been around forever. Two and three over his past five, though, 40 years old, or about to turn 40, one of those two. Coming off, a unanimous decision loss to Miles Johns in June of 2024. So also being out of the action for a hot minute, DSDA has. Reyes, meanwhile, making his UC debut, but again, a guy greater is a one-star contender series prospect. I did not think massively about.

I comped him to Tony Ferguson because he is aggressive. He works the body combinations. Kind of has that sort of parkoury, weirdo, bouncy vibe. So, but just not as good at Tony Ferguson. And so considering that, like, sure, haven't been a betting favorite. But Douglas of Dandraj, I know he's old and he hasn't fallen in a while, and that is the major concern. This is a dude who's been doing it at a very high level for a very, long time. And the only guys who have beat him are basically extremely good fighters.

Rob Font beat him in 2017. That was like peak of Rob Font Powers. Piotr Yan beat him, you know, current Bannamweight champion. Lorone Murphy beat him. Maybe the next featherweight champion. Saeed Norma Medov, probably the worst loss of his career, but Saeed never met him of as a good fighter. And Miles John's a veteran good fighter. So I can absolutely believe that Maybe DSTAA is washed, but it feels like you're getting some value on him as an underdog. But like I said, I'm not picking him as an underdog because this is where I'm looking at a point spread bet. Because plus five and a half is the line of points here.

And you can get that from minus 120. If you don't know how a point spread bet works in MMA fighting or in MMA, it's the same as it works basically in other sports, where you are taking the points as the judge's scorecard. So 30-27s across the board is a nine-point spread, right? Because you're getting 3-3-3-3. Finishes count as a flat win for whoever was the, you know, had the points favored. So if DSDA gets finished, you know, points spread belt won't be alive. But if he can just win a couple of 29-28s, he can win one round on two judges' scorecards,

this bet cash is. And I think that given his veteran savvy, the fact that he is an explosive athlete, even at 40. And a guy just, I don't think the world of. I really like a point spread bet here. Minus 120 feels like good value, so that's what I'm on. We move on down the line to a curious one, a catchweight bout between Regina Taryn and Ernesto Karakati.

Karakati was originally supposed to face Sophia Montenegro. However, Montenegro withdrew from the bout just a couple of days ago. I don't think we have a reason for that. And so now instead, this is bumped to a 130-pound catchweight bout, and Regina Taurin makes her UFC debut. Karatea, meanwhile, coming off Contender Series a couple of years ago, I think, at this point, one-in-one in the promotion, split decision win over Nicole Kaliari is her last fight in January of 2025.

So, been over a little over a year, but not that long. Terran's only 21 and she got some buzz to her, right? I think she tried out for the WWE at one point. And I've heard a little bit about her via combate and stuff as this is somebody to watch. You go when you check out some of her tape and you can see that she is, she's a prospect. I wouldn't call it like an amazing prospect because she doesn't have like this wealth of athleticism to her. But she's scrappy and she fights like a 21 year old fighter who's never lost. and can just kind of be bold.

And honestly, that might just be good enough to beat Kerkady, who is not a bad fighter at all, but nothing jumps out of the page either. And so you're getting a pretty big price. I mean, I guess the reason for the price is the fact that Taryn's stepping in on such short notice. But, you know, I think Taryn is a kickboxer primarily. She's got a little bit of grappling to her.

But she's just going to huck them in combination and sort of come forward. And that might make hay. here, particularly doing so in Mexico City, you know, feeling the crowd. I think she's got an opportunity to win. But instead of betting her straight up, which is what I was intending to do, that's when I realized, oh, there's a gimmick parlay to be had because we've got two 21-year-olds on this card. The aforementioned Santiago Luna and Regina Taryn are both 21 years old.

And so the 21-year-old, the have a drink on me parlay is up for grabs, ladies and gentlemen. So pairing the two of them up, it gets a two around plus 2.15. Breaking a lot of rules, you know, betting on 21-year-olds making their U.S. Debutts, that's a bad thing to do. Parlaying underdogs, never something you want to do. But I'm going to have some fun this weekend. So 21-year-old parlay, let's go, and I will buy you both a beer should you cash it out for me. Just a couple of fights to talk about remaining, one being a featherweight contest between Eric Silva and Francis Marshall.

Silva, big underdog plus 600. Marshall, biggest favor on the card, minus 900. Silva, O and 2 in the UFC got lost to Muhammad Nymov in February of 2024. After a leg injury, I believe it was, it was an injury. I think it was his leg of memory serves. Marshall, meanwhile, 2 and 3 in the UFC, split decision loss to Myron Santos at UFC 313. Very obviously, French Marshall is probably going to win this fight. He's coming up against the guy who has never won.

in the promotion coming off an injury and hasn't fought in two years. But Francis Moore shouldn't be minus 900 favorite. That's an enormous number. I have no interest in betting this. And I have no interest in betting Eric Silva as a dog. He does not inspire confidence. So this is a hard pass for me. And we move to the opening bout of the evening and about I am stoked on because it is West Schultz versus Damien Pinas.

Pinas minus 260, West Schultz plus 210 for this middleweight contest. both men making their debuts, both coming off the most recent Contender Series season. Pinos, I have graded as a five-star prospect, a 23-year-old fighter who looks like he has the world in front of him. I comped him to a table go-tier.

This is a dude with, who's only been, like, training and competing for three or four years, maybe five at this point, but at the time, I think it was four years at the time when he got on Contender Series. and looks to be a future world beater, supreme athletic gifts, natural, like natural fighting, understanding,

and ability. And if he can continue to grow, I expect very, very big things. West Schultz, meanwhile, great as a one-star prospect. Not a bad dude whatsoever. But just, I think I Compton to Ben Ascran. It's a former D3 College All-American two-time, maybe.

You know, he wants to do some, tricky grappling game, but he was on contender series twice. He got slaughtered by Monsor Abdul Malik in 2024 season, and I expect the same thing to happen here. Pinos is awesome. He's outside of having a name that you can have a whole lot of fun with if you're childish. And I'm childish, I'm childish. I really like his potential. And so Damien Pinos is the third leg of the climb this weekend.

Mine is 260, so we're getting some huge value, but this is the first step. I figured let's go big. Let's try and get some momentum. And let's do it with some dudes that I really like. Because Rodriguez and Pinos were my numbers, two and three graded prospects off Contender Series last year. And Daniel Zelle Huber, it's an opportunity for redemption. So a lot of things at play for this time.

Right from the very first fight of the evening, we're going to be locked in. Hope to get it done. And then, once Saturday's over, we are on to UFC 326 Max Holloway versus Charles Oliver 2, BMF title

a card that has some things going on but I would also say it's a bit top heavy but we will talk about that next week also friendly note for any of those watching I will be on Morning Combat's pregame preview next week so we'll be talking about UFC 326 on Monday so make sure you tune in for that

me Luke Thomas I believe Chuck Mendenhall is also are joining as well for the pregame preview. So should be a good time. We'll have, of course, a No Betts for next week. Should be long on loop from morning combat. I haven't actually asked him, but he's usually good. And we will talk about all that then.

So until then, thanks for tuning in. I wish you the best of luck for UFC, Mexico City, and see you for UFC 326. Love y'all.