MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Brendan Allen Get Revenge Over Chris Curtis At UFC Vegas 90?

Episode Date: April 3, 2024

The UFC is going back to the APEX. After taking to the road for UFC Atlantic City last weekend, the world's leading MMA promotion returns to its home base for one final card before the magnificent UFC 300 finally arrives. This week the headliner is a middleweight rematch between Brendan Allen and Chris Curtis, so as always, the No Bets Barred boys are here with a full breakdown of the fights this weekend. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew open the show with a brief recap of UFC Atlantic City before diving into this underwhelming APEX offering. Can Chris Curtis upset Brendan Allen yet again? Will Germaine de Randamie make a triumphant return to the cage after nearly four years out of action? Plus, what about KSW and PFL? All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 84 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The rematch, Chris Curtis versus Brendan Allen, too. Cannot wait for this one? The rematch everyone won it. How are we feeling, Jed? We hyped up. We stoked to the max about this one. I mean, the best part about this rematch, Connor, is it's the same terms as the first. You don't like to get, you know, Alexander Volcanowski as the Mokachev

with the rematches on short notice. So the vibes are different, right? This one, the first fight was short notice. We're just doing it exactly again, running it back, exactly again, just three and some change later. So how could you not be just up and excited about this electric fight that awaits us? I mean, I watched Moneyball recently for the very first time, great movie.

The first time? First time, yeah, hadn't seen it. It had been on the list for a while. finally knocked it off great movie Brad Pitt. Jonah Hill absolutely kill it. And that line, how can you not be romantic about baseball? How can you not be romantic about Apex cards? I mean, it's impossible.

I don't know how you can't be. So yeah, we'll get into all that. 13 fights, break them all down. Before you get to that last week, I was in person, boots on the ground, UFC, Atlantic City. Great time, really enjoyed the card. Got slaughtered. Just got slaughtered on the bets. A nice drive home after like four hours of sleep in Atlantic City really, really gives you time to reflect on what happened.

Ten units. Ten units. And it could have been worse. It could have been worse. It could have been my worst betting night ever. That that Kikara France, Amir al-Bazi, UFC Apex card will live in infamy. I lost 12 units on that one. That was like just a horror fest.

This was the second worst gambling night of my life. of my career. And it was this close to being the worst. I had Wyden and Silva under two and a half that barely hit. Then they came back out and said it was now a decision. But luckily, because it was under two and a half, they did not go over two and a half. It was originally called a knockout yada yada,

it cashed, got the money, everything like that. But yeah, very close to being one of my worst gambling nights ever, which I have to say it takes away a bit from the event when you're getting to the main card you've got to bet on every fight and you're like, yeah, still haven't hit a bet yet.

Still have not hit a bet. So shout out to the iPogue, shout out to Chris Wyden. Shout out. Kept it from being the worst betting night of my life. Shout out. I haven't gone back and like actually looked and honestly I'm just never going to.

It feels like whenever we're boots on the ground, we never do well. And I, is this just, and I'm misdraming. But it feels like anytime you or I at an event, we place some wagers and it's just never good for us. Let's see. Just off the top of my head, UFC Long Island, I was going great until the main event.

And that just ripped me up. That was a losing week for sure. Boxing events, I have definitely lost that. I failed every PFL event I have gone. I've lost money in basically. The one that does stick out of my head is PFL Championships 2020, headlined by Kayla Harrison, Larissa Pacheco. I had a perfect night and a lot of bets, too.

Going into the main event, I had a perfect night. Kayla Harrison wins that fight inside the distance. I have a clean sweep of the slate. That would be my first and only clean sweep, still chasing the illustrious sweep. Unfortunately, obviously, not only does she not win inside the distance, she doesn't even win the fight, period, but I still finished up like nine units. And that was a great night. That was a great night, too, because it felt like because I had the perfect

slate as we were going on. I wasn't telling anyone around me that like I haven't lost a bet yet. You don't talk about it. It was like the perfect game in baseball. I was just kind of like. No, no. You don't. I was just kind of like. And then like when Kayla Harrison lost, well, when she didn't get the finish, I like turned to everyone I was with, I was like, man, Kayla Harrison gets that finish. It would have been a perfect night for me. And everyone's like, oh, but it was still a great night. That is one I will remember forever. The Black Friday World Cup was going on. Good times, good times. did not have good times at UFC Atlantic City just got cleaned out man and now like got over the last five weeks I've just been getting fucking crushed man I was on a high after

Mexico City I was like man I am I've been running so hot since like last July that hot streak has come to an end it is the these last five weeks I've been running ice cold yeah we got 300 it's you can't can't fail at 300 certainly 300 could go really bad bad. I think I might have my full slate made. Draft King, shout out to him. They already got props up for the entire main card. They already got point spreads up for every fight. Lines have been out for a while now. I mean, I'm riding with my heart. I'm riding with my heart on a lot of these. A lot of dog picks. I could get burnt. I could get burnt, but there's no other way I'd have it. They're like, just going through the slate, there were just so many, like, betting on him, betting on him,

betting on him, betting on him. There's just like no-brainers that I'm just, I'm going with the heart. and if I lose, I lose, I'm okay with it. I'm okay with it. You just got to put it out there. And that's, 300's going to be one of those where it's going to go greater. It's going to go terrible. It's not going to be middle. So like it's either going to go great.

Because I'm going to be betting all over it. Oh, yeah. I mean, I already have like nine bets in for 300. I don't know how much more I'm going to add because like most of the board is pretty much covered. But like, yeah, it's either going to be one of those nights where like I'm really disappointed and like my favorite fighters also lost or. or my favorite fighter's won

and I was cashed in dog tickets left, right and center and it's just an amazing night all around. I mean, it is. It's going to be an amazing night all around. Oh, dude, I've been... That's where we're putting in the work these weeks, fours. I've been looking at this card for... Yeah, I mean, everyone's been looking at it for a while,

but, like, I've really lately been, as I'm placing bets, it's a great card. There, it is just star-studded. It's star-studded, dude. I mean, there's so many of my favorite fighters on this thing, and the storylines built in with Kayla Harrison, Jim Miller. I mean, if you're not betting Jim Miller next week, get, stop listening.

Turn the fucking podcast off. We don't want you here if you're not betting on Jim Miller. That's a lot of the bets that I have next week. So that's obviously for next week. We've got to tackle Apex 90 before we get there. Before we do, though, I got to ask you one important question about last week. I actually finished up. So I'm climbing out of the hole.

I'm now down. I finished up three units. Yes. God, that's amazing. You know what I would have done for a three unit night? As a guy that lost 10 units, you know what I would have done for a three unit in the positive night. I can't even tell you the things that I would have done for that.

And that gives people a reason for the people to keep listening. Because if I came on here, I was like, I lost 10 units. And you came on, you were like, yeah, I lost like five units. I would be like, why the fuck am I listening? These guys talk about gambling. They're terrible at it. Well, I am still down for the year. But I just got to ask.

That's all right. It's a long year, man. I was down huge last year, and I climbed all the way out, finished up tremendously. Connor, just the big question for me is, why didn't you believe in yourself?

I know. I know. And you want to know even the worst part about that? UFC events are attended by mostly males in the audience. That causes backups at the bathroom. So you kind of got a strategically plan when you're going to go to the bathroom. I was like, all right,

Algeo Nelson, and probably going to go a little bit longer. Let me bolt. Like, as it's getting started, I'll run to the bathroom, knock it out. Standing in the bathroom here, everyone start going crazy, a lot of booze, you know, obviously Algeo from EPA. I'm like, oh, what's happening? Algeo must be losing or something.

And then, like, I see, like, off in the distance over a concession stand that, like, Aljo's got his hands up, he's pissed, like that the fight got called, everything like that. And, yep, my very first thought was, how did I not believe in myself? Gotta believe me. That's what we said last week. I said, I believed in you. and that helped me get. That was a plus 190 cash.

It's huge. And is that a four-fight win streak for him? I think that might be right. I mean, it's got a fuse. Doing okay. He's been running nice, man. The Canadian Connor. Shout out.

Shout out. So next time we know you got to believe in yourself and we'll be ready to rock. I can't wait for the, for UFC Apex 98, Kyle Nelson will be on it, and Garam will be on it. That will be my first 10-unit bet. the Kyle Nelson Garan Parlet.

I mean, I'm in. Couldn't be more in on this. That's going to have to happen. It's going to have to happen. Shout out to Kyle Nelson, man. Great for the bald beard brand. Triple B is what we call it. You know, there's a lot of people out there rep in.

You know, Triple H, great for the bald beard brand. So yeah, Kyle Nelson carrying us along. There's a lot of us out there just trying to strengthen the brand. That's enough of last week then. Let's get on because we got business to attend to kind of works. We got business to attend to UFC Apex 90. Let's start with the main event, Chris Curtis, taking on Brennan Allen in the rematch that we mentioned.

Chris Curtis coming in on short notice replacing Marvin Vittori. Just kind of going and looking at this thing. My very first thought was, wow, Brennan Allen is 11 and 2 in the UFC. That is nothing to scoff at six wins in a row. The last time he lost was to Chris Curtis in December. of 2021. And along the way, he has looked pretty good doing it, man. A lot of submissions, tapped out Andre Monez and Paul Craig. Like, those are, those guys are not easy to submit.

And, like, where they're at in their careers, like Chris Curtis has had some weird fights lately, some no contests, the headbutts, some losses, everything in between. Feels like Allen is the play. But, man, December 2021, Alan was like minus 360, minus 3,000. And he got knocked out. Now he's minus 200. I just don't. With the way that I'm being very selective this week after the week that I had last week, I'm just staying away.

Because like it is not out of the question that Chris Curtis does this again. All right. We have the same read on this. So that makes me happy because I, I mean, Britain now, I'm just surging. Chris Curtis is a little older. You know, it hasn't been great lately. His performances have been fine, but not. They don't instill a ton of confidence in you.

But at the same time, this still might just be a tough matchup for Brendan Allen. Chris Curtis is really good defensive wrestler. Tough as hell too. Super tough, really good defensive wrestler and kind of a, you know, a savvy, sneaky dude on the feet. And so like Brendan Allen obviously looked amazing, but he's looked amazing largely with his grappling. Shown some striking certainly, but it's largely what he has been able to do on the floor. And I don't know. I could see Chris Curtis coming in.

here and just stuffing a bunch of takedowns and doing the damn thing again. So I have passed on a side on this one. And I will say I tried to make this a chat GPT bed of the week. I say tried because I don't, I started doing the thing. And chat GPT started telling me some things that just are objectively untrue. And so I had to be like, I was like, hey, chat GPT, tell me about Chris Curtis. Tell me about, you know, Brendan Allen. Have these two dudes ever fought before?

And it was like, yeah, they fought in 2015. at Valor Fighting Championships. And I was like, that's not a thing that happened at all. So when it started doing that, I was like, I'm out. And so I withdrew from this entirely. Instead, I've taken a position on over two and a half. Chris Curtis is in my head as a decision machine. Actually does have a good amount of finishes,

but he is super durable. He's a dude that just doesn't get finished. And I think this is going to go a little longer. I suspect will be a little cageier, given what happened the last time. He knows that this is a pretty big. There's a risk for him, man. Like, right? Like, he was getting Marm Votori, a fight that puts him right there in title contention.

Now he's getting Chris Curtis. There's not a ton of upside, so I think he's going to play this safer. However, it ends up going, I think we're going to see probably even the championship rounds. So I've taken the over two and a half at minus 150. Does it concern you at all that the last time out, not only did it not go over two and a half it didn't even go over one and a half i mean yes that's but i also think that's why i get in the price here that's pretty reasonable uh and like i said if if a finish happens early i think it will be chris curtis i mean Curtis is just so durable

i don't think brendan allen's going to choke him out we know within the first 10 minutes or whatever and like i said i think brendan allen's going to be a little cage year in there because because he has so much to lose i think he's going to fight a little safer not put himself in positions to get knocked out in the first or second round. So we'll see. It's not like a bet I have a ton of confidence in, but I feel good enough about it. Defenders and cybersecurity are always there when we need them. They should get a parade every time they block a novel threat and have streets,

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I like it. All right, let's go on to the co-main event, Alexander Hernandez, taking on Damon Jackson. Gee, man, this is kind of another fight that I was just like, man, Alexander Hernandez, I have seen wilt several times throughout his UFC career. I feel like this is either Jackson getting caught early, which we have seen that happen a couple of times throughout his UFC career, or it's him wearing on Alexander Hernandez as he goes through the course of three rounds.

I don't know which of those things going to happen. I'm not going to trust Alexander Hernandez at minus 200 when he's one and three in his last four fights. and I've seen him fall off that cliff. So another one I'm just staying away from. This is a very simple breakdown for me. I got to go with Damon Jackson. He and I share a birthday. There it is.

888. I can't. It's the same birthday. What am I going to not support my guy? Same exact date. Like yel. Same exact date. The same day.

We have been on this earth for the exact same number of days. He and I. So I can't I cannot support. him so uh got a ride with him don't feel like amazing about it uh probably i would almost certainly just be dog or pass in this situation uh but you know here just because damon jackson's also a rough couple of goes last time but we're going to get back on track we're going to do the damn thing action jackson let's go baby let's get her done rep all the leos out there let's do the thing i don't feel amazing about it but i'm doing it anyway the story of that's the book

The story of betting at the UFC Apex. Pretty much. I did a lot of that last week, kind of forcing bets for gimmicks, trying to get action on every fight. It didn't work out for me. It didn't work out for me. One thing about last week, your thoughts on Aaron Blanchfield's performance? My thoughts are more on Monforto's performance.

Just an unbelievable effort from her. I mean, everybody knows I've been super high on Blanchefield. I still am. Like, she's 24, losing to quite possibly the best flyweight in the world when you're 24 years old. Ain't no shame in that, you know, she's still got time. We all knew that she was limited. Everyone, every one of the Blanchfield supporters was not like she's GSP. She's Habib.

She just takes you down. She beats the soul out of you. If someone could ever stop that, it's going to be an issue. Thus far, it had not been an issue, but Monon didn't even sort of let her get going. Just a tremendous performance from Furo. And excited to see her fight for the belt, honestly. Just maybe not excited. She's not the most thrilling fighter to watch,

but certainly interested in seeing how she would match up against Valentina Shepchenko or Alexa Grasso. And like I said, I've still super high on Blanchefield long term. This is one of those losses. She's going to go and be like, oh, I can't just bully everyone I fight. I'm going to have to learn, get better, improve. and I think she will. I would make you eat more crow if I didn't support New Jersey's own Blanchfield.

I think my very words on this podcast. Yes, because I think my very words on this podcast where if this fight was taking place anywhere else, I would 100% be betting on Minofioreau. Now we got Minofiurot coming in studio tomorrow. I'm going to have to look her in the eyes and be like, yep, I bet on you every one of your UFC fights until I got to watch you in person. I've worn a... Just admit that one.

I have a Manon Firo shirt. I've worn a beret and eating croissants on watch parties to support this woman, and then I go watch her put on a 50-45 masterclass against everybody's sweetheart, everybody's next champion in enemy territory, and there I am supporting cold-blooded Blanchefield. I mean, the writing was on the wall.

She went 0-4-14 on takedowns against Talas Santos. I should have been. Minon Firo is just gigantic for 125. I should have a just an absolute unit. a lot of regrets, just a lot of regrets. Let's keep it rolling, though. To another person of French descent, Morgan Chagrier, taking on Chepe Mariscal. The Last Pirate, I like him, dude.

I think he's good. I think he's got a great all-around game. I'm still not fully sold on Mariscow. I know it was a good performance against Jack Jenkins and Trevor Peek. I feel like Trevor Peek, the hype of, you know, the exciting standing hammer fist has sort have waned a little bit. I think the last pirate, I think he's going to be more technical, obviously. I mean, Mariscow fights kind of wild. I like the toughness of him, too. I mean, it's been subbed once, like, nine years ago in one of his first five fights, you know,

eight of his losses come by way of decision. Yeah, I think he gets it done here. I think he gets it done. Play-will price. I played him at minus 120. So the last pirate is one of my three bets for UFC Apex 90. only have three. I've got a few more, but this is also one of them. I also got him at minus 120. Nice. For basically all the same reasons. I've, Myr's way too wild. If he can get takedowns and maybe go that route, maybe, but I'm not that impressed by his wrestling. I think Shaya is probably good enough to keep it on the feet, at least for most of the fight, and he's the more technical spear striker. So yeah, good price. Got him. You and I are in lockstep here. Amazing. Let's go to

Ignacio Baja Mondez taking on Christos, Gigos. I have nothing on this one. I like Baja Mondez. I like the range. I like the striking. I think Gagos will probably look good until he doesn't. But man, Baja Mondez burned me last time out. He has lost a couple times in the UFC as over a minus 200 favorite.

And here he is minus 320 or so. So I'm just going to stay away from this one. We got the same read as well. I got obviously a favorite Bahamondez. You know me. My weakness is always going to be enormous people in their weight classes. You're 6.3 lightweight, buddy. Sign me up.

That's it. Big fella can move. I'm in. But that's a big price. And Yagos is, like you said, a guy who probably will look good until he doesn't, has faced to just a murder's row of some opposite. I mean, his losses are to Saruky and Zell Hubert. Gamoys, like top 20 and or elite prospects.

He's fought a lot of hard dudes, so I just don't like the price on Bahamondas I've passed on this one as well. Did he come in to play it all for best nickname? La Yala, which means the cage. It's a good nickname, but no, best nickname actually coincided with Morgan Shari. I just love The Last Pirate. It's just a great nickname. It's good.

It's very random. It's very random. I also do not only like big guys for the division, I also like supporting countries that aren't, they don't have a ton of fighters in the UFC. Chilean is different. I like that. It is very different.

They're not. There can't be that many Chilean fighters just like. Period. In general. Yeah, looking up, not a lot of, not a lot of dudes. I mean, a lot of bodies, but not a lot of people with like extended residences. A lot of O&Os, a lot of amateurs. Yeah, a lot of Emmys.

A lot of amateurs. Wow. This is ridiculous. The Chilean MMA scene, the AMMA scene in Chile. Something to look at. Keep your eyes on, you know? Keep your eyes on it. Yeah.

All right. Let's move on Lucas Bredski taking on Volter Walker. A little bit of a tongue twister there. Walter Walker making his debut in the UFC after picking up a win. In Titan FC 82 last time out, he, comes in 11 and 0 11 and O debuting heavyweight at about

minus 400 I can't think of anything that could go wrong there can't nothing can go wrong there I mean also don't forget Breske is 0 in 3 or 0 and 4 in the UFC as well I mean 0 and 3 and his

Dana White Contender series win was overturned to a no contest that's where it is yeah Just, I mean, just a stalwart, a guy who clearly deserves to be in the Octagon. Poland's next champion. When you say the likes of Yohanna Young Jacek, Jan Blyovic, Mateus Schamratt, Lucas Bretzky. Yeah, I mean, just this is a guy who clearly, he screams Apex, you know. He screams KSW, if I'm being totally honest.

Probably, and probably after this week. Because, you know, the other great, the thing you failed to mention about, old Walter Walker. You want to say Walter Walter. Yeah, you really do. It really messes me up. I honestly, I want to say Walker,

Walter, which would just be easy. A lot of decision wins for an undefeated heavyweight, which is just not a thing you want to see from an undefeated head. Nah, you want to see this dude starching people out. Yeah, I mean, over half his wins.

Six wins coming by decision. It's just a lot for the old 26th. A lot of decision wins to the 26-year-old undefeated heavyweight. I'm strongly considered going for a heavyweight over here. But then I was just like, I didn't actually want to go watch Walker tape. So I was like, just not going to bet it. I mean, he has also fought just like no one. Nobody.

Yeah. No one of any. Like, I mean, I could absolutely see him losing this fight somehow. All right. The clean monster, though. I mean. That's a good name. The clean monster.

Fun nickname. We know he's not doping. We know he's not dope. Not doping. All right. Let's go to the last fight on the main card. Trevor Peek, who was mentioned earlier in this show, taking on Charlie Campbell. I mean, I think this is going to be a banger.

This might be the most exciting fight on the card. Trevor Peek fights are always exciting. And Charlie Campbell, dude, he comes out and he scraps. I think it's going to be awesome. Both these guys are wild. Thought about taking the under. But, man, Peek, the last couple times out, Duke can take a beating and then some. He is super, he is super, super tough.

and I'm not sold he's going to win the fight so there's a very good chance that this thing goes off 15 so yeah another one I'm just I'm just staying away I got one bet on the main card feels good feels freeing I'm not gonna lie I mean you just enjoy the apex for what it is

and not be stressed about the money you know yeah I also have no action here should be a fun fight just couldn't really find any anything that I like too much so nothing for me as well and we're on to the prelimbs prelims

We're moving, baby. Court McGee taking on Alex Morono. It feels like a theme of this card. I am just not trusting Court McGee at almost 40 years old coming off getting knocked out in the first round in his last two fights. I think Alex Marano gets this one done. He's also a black belt. He can handle the grappling here. He's got an edge on the feet for sure. Minus 300 on the Great White. I don't know. I just. I just, I like playing the Great White at dog odds. I mean. And it's not Shark Week.

It's not Shark Week. But he can now get out for Shark Week. I mean, this will be a good time frame. And you come in July, June, whenever it is this year. I don't have a bet now. I want to see when the point spread comes out just because I couldn't, because Cort McGee's been knocked out two in a row. Now it kind of makes me think that Morano by K.O.

a live bet, but also historically McGee has been very durable. And so I just kind of want to see what my options are for a Morano by points, just either a clean win, just running the show or, you know, 30-27s across the board or getting a finish there. My guess, given the line, is that it won't be that appealing, probably like minus 245 or something. But if that number comes in, you know, under minus 200, I'll probably take a shot. shot at it at that point on Alex Marono minus three and a half yeah uh I actually saw that

earlier I'm pulling up right now on old a bet online I want to say it was only like minus 140 minus 145 right now I'll take that at that price because I think that like you said McGee's just 40 years old man Marano's still got a lot of juice you know not a great wrestler but a very competent grappler and very advantaged on the feet. So I'll take the minus three and a half on Morano. Let's go. We keep it rolling along. Norman Dumont taking on Germain de Randemey.

And man, this is a fight that I want nothing to do with. Durandemey, 39 years old as well. We haven't seen her in three and a half years. That is correct. Women's Bantamway. Norman Dumont is just, eh. I will be staying away. You, this is the first bed of the evening where you have definitely been

much, much smarter. We've just agreed on things all night. You've been so much smarter than me because... Tell me you got Norman Dumont minus 200. Minus 165. Okay, all right, all right. So a better price. I don't know, Jermaine, your enemy hasn't fought in almost four years.

Yeah. She's old and hasn't fought a long time. So Norman Dumont has been competing. So I was just like, whatever. I regretted it almost immediately. after punching submit, but we already did it. So there we are. And I also, you probably know this by now, but we got two women's band-and-weight fights on this card, Connor Burks. Tell me. We're going to be taken two over two and a halfs on this card, Connor Burks.

The over two and a half minus 300 on this fight, Jermaineer enemy, seven and four or seven of her 11 UFC fights have gone over two and a half. Dumont, seven of eight have gone over two and a half, of those I'm pretty sure by decision. You know, I'm just going to keep sticking with it. It's been working, you know, a couple of misses here, there by and large,

betting the overs on women's ban on weight fights has been paying dividends, and I will continue to do so. Support for this show comes from Chase. If you're a fan of women's sports, you're always looking for ways to get closer to the action, and your Chase card can get you exactly that. With a Chase card, you can experience more.

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Volkswagen is helping people discover new turfs and new ways to play the beautiful game right here in the U.S. From Deaf and Power wheelchair soccer to beach and futsal, Volkswagen is actively supporting all the communities and teams within the U.S. soccer ecosystem. They're supporting talent from across the U.S. soccer extended national teams and are focused on helping to give these less widely known forms of soccer a platform moving forward. From the pitch to the sand and everything in between, welcome. to our turf. Love it. Let's keep it moving right along to another female fight Cynthia Calvio taking on Pierre Rodriguez.

I almost, I almost bet Calvio as a dog, but I missed the price on this one. I saw her at like plus 175. When I went to really consider betting her, she's like plus 135 now, plus 140. So that lines come down.

And then I was also just like, I mean, do I really want to bet on a girl that is 0. 0.5 in her? last five fights and she's fighting the eight like i just don't need this in my life i don't need this stress we got ufc 300 right around the corner that's the appropriate way to handle this it's the way i've handled i almost bet the over two and a half just you know i was sticking with the gimmick but then i was like i don't even know man um i don't know what to make a calvio there was a time when

she was like not that far away from a title shot there's like oh look at this young girl she is She's confident brash. She's fighting her ass off. And I don't know what happened, but she started losing a whole bunch. And so I don't know what to make of her. Pierre Rodriguez is a perfectly fine fighter. I would not say anything that jumps off the page. But given where Calvio is in her career, I don't know.

I just don't want anything to do with this one either, bud. So you and me, hands off. It's an approach I need to take much, much more in this betting scene. And Gene Matsu... Exactly. Gene Matsumoto taken on Dan Argueta. And this is actually where my second bet of the evening comes. Oh, who you got?

I'm not going for your boy from Contender Series. Come on. You're going to do this to me. I will be taking the dog in Dan Arquita. I can't believe this. What category did Matsumoto? it'll get put in. Big pause and a puppy, baby.

I had a feeling. The undefeated category. That category is, I believe, 7 and 0 this year. Wow. It's just no one's losing from it. So obviously I bet him. Any concerns about the takedown defense and getting put on the map? I mean, that is very clearly the way he loses this.

I like, I like Argoidae 1-35. I like the wrestling. I like the pace that he pushes, Debuton, 24 years old. I got him plus 175. I like his chances here. Weird last couple fights for him. No contest overturned in the Miles John, and then it looked like he got the finish against Ronnie Lawrence.

I like her going to get it done here. Get back in the windcom after two no contests. I'm riding with my boy. They are, again, big pause in the puppy category of the contender series. seven and oh since since they got signed that bumped up to seven and no after eba as in last week

my boy coming through in the rematch I mean it was squirley it's not it's not a lot of ourselves squirley we got it done when's a win I love g Matsumoto coming off of it I mean super young tons of upside tons of ability 14 fights and the dude is just so composed

in the cage like nothing's going to rattle him if he does you know give up some early takedown, Sargweta. He's not going to just start, you know, spiraling downhill. He's just going to keep working through it. Yeah, big price, but I got to back my boys. I backed you last week. It paid off.

I backed Ebo last week. It paid off. I'm back in Gene Matsumoto this week. We're going to hope it pays off again. All right. Dylan Boudka taking on Caesar Almeda. I mean, let's just stick with you on this one. Two Dana White Contender Series guys making their debuts.

How many of these fights have we had this year? it's just been contender series debut versus contender series debut of just a million of them just gain away contender series part two uh i mean what like two weeks ago there were just like six of them on the card it was all contender series guys yeah they like to do that on these apex cards i wonder why um almeda cash is a big dog on contender series does he do it again here i bet him to do it again uh so i have boudka i had boudca as a just another guy that category has been under 500 since signing, which is about right. They're just dudes.

They're guys to fill apex cards. They can get some wins. They'll get some losses. They have some ability, but, you know, nothing jumps off the page. Almeida ended up getting put in a specialty category with one other person, Janara Denise. That category was the old fighters, but talented, because it was just two glory kickboxers who are old because they've been doing glory for a while.

and so obviously they have some skills, but they're probably too old to, like, make a title run because Alex Pereira is Alex Pereira. Nobody else can be Alex Pereira. On the Alex Pereira note, though, Cesar Almeida famously has a win over Pereira in kickboxing. I mean, this is a dude who has a very clear skill set. Budka obviously knows what he needs to do.

He's got a shot of doing it. Like, he's not an awful wrestler. But I have backed Almeida, just because, you know, he's a tier above in my rankings. Got to go with that. All right, we move on to the final fight that we will talk about on this card, the curtain jerker, the first fight of the evening.

And that's going to be our girl, MTDM. I'm wondering if that's how we should do it, our MTMD. I like that better, MTMD. So if you go on Tapology, she goes by Melissa Tonia, Mullins. If you go on the UFC website, it's Melissa Mullins. And if you go on Sherdog, it's Melissa Dixon. They just have not updated the Dixon. Yeah, I think she may have gotten married,

so now it's officially Mullins. Correct. Tanya, do we know where that comes from on Tapology? I think that that's just her middle name. All right. So we'll go with MTMD for now, Melissa Tanya Mullins-Dixon. I'm taking on Nora Cornel. Cornoli? Cornoli, I believe. French name, I don't know, if they pronounce that E. Quite a few French fighters going this weekend.

This is actually my third play. I have Mullins in a parley with someone else that I'll get into just after this. But yeah, I just think she has a massive grappling advantage. She'll fight for your money. We saw that last time out. She can get this fight to the mat. And I think when she gets this fight to the mat,

it's going to be over not too much longer after that. She does have a pretty, a pretty healthy advantage on the floor. Cornoli is, I think she can hang around and just be competitive, but just never going to wow you physically, you know, a pretty sturdy physical fighter. I almost thought about playing her just because my Melissa Dixon, Mullins, Tanya, MTMD is still super raw, super early. I mean, she's 6 and 0 in her career.

and being this big a favorite when you've been fighting for two plus years. I think she started in 2021 or 2022. I mean, it's never a terrible idea to just take blindly bet large women's underdogs in a fight where both women have less than 10 professional fights. Yeah, I mean, it's never a terrible idea. I thought about it. And then I was like, I don't really want to do it because I don't even feel like, feel okay about it. but I am, this is the other over two and a half that I've parlayed up with Dumont GDR.

It's minus 245. Those two come out to a minus 114. If Cornoli can just be physical and just stop Dixon from getting to the floor at will, this fight can go long. If she can't, I'm probably going to lose that parlay. So that is UFC Apex 90. I got three bets. the last pirate, Dan Argueira, and I got Dixon M-TMD in a parlay.

You got the opener, you got a prelim, and then you got one fight on the main car. Vingo. That's all I need. That's all I need. I did parlay her up, though. She's fighting a woman from France. I parlayed her up with a man from France

who will be fighting in France this weekend. Saladin Parnasse on KSW 93. They're doing a Paris show. He's back down at 155. after trying to go for the triple belts at 170. I like him to get it done. I think this is kind of a, you went for the three belts. Let's have you go fight in your home country.

You're one of our biggest stars. Let's have you get it done. Plus, I just think he's ridiculously talented. I'm just an enormous fan of Parnas. You know, unfortunate, tried something, failed. Not everyone can be Anatoly Malikin and win three belts, even if one of those belts is a fake belt. but I love that.

I didn't even look at KSW lines. I might, what's he looking? What's he sitting at? He's like minus 500. Man, that would, I wish I had looked at that before I'd already put in this PFL parlay.

I was just about that. Thursday. I would rather have him as one of the legs of this BFL parlay. Thursday in San Antonio, I was going to ask, you got any action? I do not. I've got no action.

I've got a couple, I've got one parlay. and then I just haven't had time. I probably am going to end up throwing some money down because the Ante Delia Valentin Moldovsky is basically a pickam fight. I just get, I kind of just think Moldovsky's going to win, but I want to watch a little bit and see if maybe I come to a better thought on it.

Goldsov Vassel is also close to a pickum, and Vassel's been looking good, but he's 40. I just don't like, what are we doing there? even Marcelo Gould, Daniel James just a couple of bad heavyweight fights that are closely lined. I feel like I could get some value down. But what I've done that I do feel good about at least to some extent,

I've just done a big old chalk suit parlay. Just getting greasy with it. Tyler Santos minus 900. She's taking on Alaria Wan. You know. She's going to roll. She's going to roll. She's going to do great.

Great for her. She can come. win a million dollars. Still not sure why the UFC and her didn't come to her terms because she's one of the five best fly weights in the world. But, you know, what it is where it is. Lucas Brennan on the undercard taking on Dimitri Ivy, a 12 and 7 dude. Just a clear setup fight for Brennan, guy that they've got a little bit of hope for.

And then round it out with, we're doing it again, Connor. Julian Velasquez taken on Liz Karmouche. Julianne of Alaska is 12 and 2. Those two losses are to Liz Karmouche. we're doing it again unclear why we're doing it again and why it's been

three straight fights for for Juliannevasa just gonna keep shooting her shot it's not like like the first one there was like a little bit of controversy

even though it shouldn't have really been the second one there was none she's got her ass beat and now we're doing it again I guess she's just gonna keep shooting until Liz Carmush

is too old to beat her anymore I don't know but I rounded the parley out with that and it comes out to about minus 142. It really is kind of ridiculous why they're making that. It's so dumb. I mean, it's just like, it also is kind of shocking that Liz Carmouch is, uh, is only a minus 190.

What is she? Minus 250 is what I had her at. Yeah. I mean, it's, I don't know. And Liz Carmuch has done nothing but wins since you left the UFC. Just done nothing but win. Two of those being over Falesc. And then like I

I don't know man Just a little weird So I was just gonna bet that straight And then I was looking at the other parley legs Like I can just do these two as parleyes Is this is this the season This is the start of the season correct Yes

So these are the these are women's flyweight fights for this this season Yeah I believe so Yeah I don't know why you would lead with this fight then. Like you could have Liz Karmouche fight Talis Santos. You do that or what, like you do any other choices than what they've done. Uh, but you know

is what it is I guess. It is what it is. And that's the weekend. Put a bow on it. KSW 93, PFO one on Thursday in San Antonio, and UFC Apex 90. A little cageware's action in there if it fancies you. And that's that. Next week, UFC 300.

I'm going to guess that episode's just going to be a couple minutes longer than this one. But pretty likely. Also, I should know this. Like, this is my job, right? Is this a, this isn't a title fight because it's, or is it? It's three rounds. Carmoos Flaskas. Carmuch is still the Bellator champion, though.

Yeah, I suppose so. I suppose so. But I guess you kind of put that to the side. Why we're just doing it? I don't know. This is the dumbest shit I've ever seen in my life. I'm honestly surprised we're still talking about it. Yeah.

It just got me taken it back as we started talking about it. But that's it. All right. That's it. UFC 300 next week. See you then. Love y'all. Podcast Network.

Hi. I'm Sophia Loper Caro, host of the Before the Chorus podcast podcast. We dive into the life experiences behind the music we love. Artists of all genres are well. And I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks, like glass animals. I guess that was the idea was to try something personal and see what happened. And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy.

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