MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Charles Oliveira Keep The Magic Alive At UFC Rio?

Episode Date: October 8, 2025

The UFC is heading back to Brazil! This Saturday, UFC Rio goes down in the first nation of fighting, headlined by a lightweight main event matchup between former champion Charles Oliveira, and top-10 contender Mateusz Gamrot, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew flies solo, taking a look at all things UFC Rio. Topics discussed include Oliveira's quick turnaround, Gamrot's chances while stepping on on short notice to replace Rafael Fiziev, whether Deiveson Figueiredo is done, Joel Alvarez's move to welterweight, the next step of The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 139 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Service fees exclusions in terms apply. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, everybody? We are back for another edition of No Bet. Bard. My name is Jed Mishu. I am your host and a writer-podcaster, content creator, at mhmapyting.com. A terrific website.

Thank you for joining me. I'm flying solo this week. Fresh off the heels of UFC 320. Obviously, a big shout out to Long Island Luke, aka Luke Noseeta, who joined me last one. week as we broke down the pay-per-view, but no guess this week as we touch

on UFC Rio and touch upon is what I mean. We will not be here for very long because I don't have that many bets, but I do have a few. Fight card's not, it's frankly not great, but it's not terrible either, especially

if you're Brazilian, you've got a lot of things to root for. They have stacked it with hometown fighters, or I suppose home country fighters. But first a brief recap of UFC 320, mainly just to say, I finally put together a winning week. It has felt like months since I was staring back at a positive number. I mean, we are still down on the year, make no mistake, but finished up over three units last week, just hit a bunch of bets, missed a bunch too.

We really got out there. We had fun, high contact sport out there. But the fact that we were able to chip in. into this huge deficit I have built. That felt quite nice. So on the board, thanks to Alex Pereira in large part as a plus 230 underdog cashing. That was terrific. But most important, the most important of all, the climb.

Step 2, down, baby. We were unable to put it forth on the show because of how things broke out. But last week's episode I said, you know, I was looking at the table. OTA by knockout prop. Of course, his opponent fell out Ozzy Diaz and was replaced, but at the time we broadcast that fight was brand new. There were no odds.

Unfortunately, the Atipago TTA odds still were simply untenable. He was like a minus 1,300 betting favorite, and the knockout prop was like minus 900. So couldn't do that, but I did give it out on the old Twitter machine.

And for the second step of the climb, we went a same game parlay of a table goatea in the under one and a half cut that at minus 475. So we are two steps down on the climb as we march our way up. If you do not know what the climb is, that means you must be new here. And we are so happy to have you. Thank you for joining us. The climb is my pet project.

It's my passion in the world of sports gambling. It is an attempt to string together 28 to 30 consecutive minus 500-ish bets. So exactly what it sounds like. If you take a $100 bankroll, you put it on a minus 500 guy, and you keep rolling that over functionally into a 28-leg parlay, you can turn 100 bucks into 10 grand. And that is what we are attempting to accomplish with the climb, the whole journey. This is iteration number eight. Eight is my lucky number. So I think this is the one that's going to do it. We were very, very close not that long ago. And have said, had a couple of quick stops.

And we do have one for this week, one that, you know, I feel excited about whether it's good or not, who can say? But I feel excited about it. And that's what's most important. Frankly, I had felt excited about Mara Vowler's Philly last weekend and I was talked out of it. Shouldn't have been talked out of it. We could have been two, one more leg up the mountain had I stuck to my own personal guns,

but better safe than sorry. Now we move on because we have got UFC Rio to talk. about this week. The promotion returns to Brazil for the first time in a half minute, and it is headlined by a lightweight fight between Charles Olivera and Matush Gamron with 12 fights in support. And frankly, not a lot of name value on this card, a lot of Brazil value. As you, if you go over to our good friends at Tapology, look, I mean, there is a Brazilian on every single one of these fights and plus is it plus one more so 13 fights 14 Brazilians competing on Saturday if nothing falls out before then so you know you could if you're looking for a

gimmick parley there are a few available the all brazil parley would pay out a tidy sum highly doubtfully gets there but good luck to you if that's if that is a choice let's go though into the main event as Charles Oliver takes on a tush gamma Olavera, a very, very slight underdog. I mean, frankly, it even just depends on where you want to get this line at. Because if you look at some things, this has become a pick-em. Not to bury the lead, I already got the price in on him. I got him at plus 100.

At the book I'm at, he's now around minus 110 pick-a-monds. As Matush Garamott, same sort of thing. if you got this a couple days ago, maybe a slight favorite, now they're pretty close to pick them. And I think there are a lot of reasons for that. One, this was not the fight that was supposed to happen, right? Charles Olivera was supposed to be fighting Hafeil Fiziv. Fiziv pulls out after some jockeying for position. Garmat is the guy who gets the call.

O'Vera obviously coming off his knockout loss to Iliad de Portia in June, and that was a big talking point of this fight. Is it too soon for Olaver to return, especially against a guy like Fisdard? Eve who is going to thud him hands, basically, you know what I'm saying? And Olivera probably shouldn't have taken that fight, but he was going to, he felt good. It is what it is. Matush Gamrot, frankly, probably a beneficial step in in that regard. Just a sort of a different guy, not much known for his striking ability, more for his aggressive sort of cardiocentric grappling, submission grappling, and that, at the very least, should influence Olivera's, you know, durability less so.

On the other side of the ball here, Garmott stepping in fairly short notice for a five-round main event fight. Biggest opportunity of his career, I think that's fairly safe to say, given Charles as a former champion, still very highly ranked in the weight class. And Garmor has been trying to find a way

to break through. He is coming up a win. He named his decision win over Lutovic Klein back in May. But before that, he was a bit of a lost man in the woods, you know, know, like he had put together good wins, Jalen Turner, Fiziv, though that was an injury. You know, obviously, it's not his fault. A win is a win.

RDA, like, sort of a weird, it was a very weird run for him with a split decision win, an injury win, and then a win over the ghost of Huffield de Sanjos. Then he comes in and he fights Dan Hooker in a fight he's, you know, favored, should do well in, kind of fights like a lunatic. Super fun, got a performance. a fight of the night, but ends up losing a decision to Dan Hooker, then bounces back with a more classic performance against Ludovac Klein. What sort of Gamrod are we going to see?

Probably the grappling dude. But I don't know if that's going to matter here, right? I have never been the world's biggest believer in Charles Oliver, but Charles Oliver is an outstanding fighter, and this is the exact sort of fight he can thrive in. Gamrod doesn't present any real danger on the feet. Sure, Gamrod can take him down. Charles Olivera does not get the credit he deserves as a defensive wrestler.

Yes, like the very, very best in the world. Armand Sarukin, Islamachad can have some success there. But even those men, you know, Islam had the most success. Armand had success with it, but he really had to hang on to barely eke out a victory that some people don't think he deserved. And Matush Cameron is not the control grappler that Surukian is. A little bit better in the scrambles, which could help him here. but I think Oliver is so much better on the feet, so much more dangerous on the feet.

He has the potential to make things spicy, you know, on the ground as well. If Kmartik does get takedowns, I think this fight favors him. And the circumstances aren't the best, and Oliver has certainly passed his prime. But I think the style matchup is too good to pass up. That's why I took up plus money. I'd still be pretty okay betting Oliver at these odds right now. Anything less than minus 150 feels like we're in, in, in decent range for Charles Olivaire.

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Moving on to our co-main event of the evening. A kind of walkie bantamweight contest as Davidson Figurato, former flyweight champion, takes on Montel Jackson, a sizable betting favorite at minus 295 to come back on Figgy Smalls, plus 250-ish. and not hard to see why.

He figures on a three-fights game, coming up with TK. Loss, Corey Sandhagan, where he injured his knee. I don't entirely know how bad that was, but he's obviously backed out-fight was in May. Not that long of a layoff for an injury. He's an old man at this point. He's getting up there in years with a bum knee,

fighting Montel Jackson, who is surging. Six-fight win streak, an amicistee win over Daniel Marcos back in May. this is certainly a big step up in competition for Montel Jackson, but I think he's ready for this. This is a guy with a lot of talent. He is going to be massive in there. Five inches of height, seven inches of reach against Davidson Figurato, and it has historically shown could take down defense. Figurato's had success in Bannonweight with his ability to mix the martial arts, to throw them bows on the feet and then duck in for take downs.

I don't think the ducking in is going to work, and it's hard to, you know, he came. have some success. He still hits very hard. But Montel Jackson, this does feel like it lines up really well for Montel Jackson to sort of get the breakout name on his resume and start building a legitimate title run. Whether it will or not, we'll see.

But I think these odds are pretty fairly lined. And so to me, I just don't really want to be part of it. I was briefly looking at some overs, but Figggy's so old, and it's still Figgie. He packs a punch. Just going to stay away from this one. That's going to be a common theme. I

only have three pieces of action plus a par leg on this week. So very, very tight shift this weekend. As we move on to the feature bout of the evening, a welterweight contest is Vicente Luke takes on Joel Alvarez. Luke, pretty big under a plus 380, Joel Alvarez, minus 500. Alvarez making his welterweight debut in the UFC. I'm actually not sure.

Maybe he fought outside of the UFC wealth away, but I believe this is his UFC welterweight debut. He's on a three-fight winning street. coming off the flying knee win over Draccar close in December. Luke, submitted by Kevin Holland back in June, two and four over his past six, the oldest 33-year-old, do you ever meet in your life? And hey, guess what? Joel Alvers is my boy.

He is my boy. He's been my boy for longer than most people. Not saying I'm the only one on the Joel Alvarez bandwagon, but I have loved this dude, even back when he was getting beat up by Romant Sarukin. back when he was losing a decision to Demiris Magulov, that's when I was like, kind of like the cut of this fella's jib. And since that moment, he has been all gas, no breaks, baby, all finishes. This dude has bought 25 freaking times.

He has been to one decision, and it was Demiris Magulov. That's it. Anything else, he's getting or he getting got. And mostly he's getting you. I think the move to Waltowate can be really good for him. I liked him at lightweight in part because he was so big, but we have seen plenty of lightweights smaller than Joel Alvers, frankly, have a ton of success moving up to the Walter Weight Division,

you know, talking about your Michael Keyes, your Gilbert Burns is, heck, you're Jorge Mastodals. Just simply the cutting weight impacts them more than you think. Joel Alvarez, I think moving up should do very, very well in this weight class, especially this matchup, because the issue with Joel Alvarez is the grapple, is the wrestling. The Sinti Luke certainly can wrestle a little bit, but he's not an amazing one. Joel Lovarez can threaten off his back for sure.

And Vicente Luka, like you said, the oldest 33-year-old you'll ever see in your life. I love my boy, Joel, to get it done. And as a result, this is step three of our climb, baby. Minus 500. The number is the number. It is on the mark for us. So we already punched the climb, and we punched the climb in on Monday as I was making first looks at this. So we are locked, ready to go.

and we will be watching this one in Pantley on Saturday. That is our second bed of the evening. One more bet, and then a parlay to go, and we were going to breeze through this, because the next fight up, it's the last bet up. It is a heavyweight contest. It is not a Denise. It takes on Mario Pinto.

This is another one that is pretty close to a pick-em fight at this point in time. Denise, very slight betting favorite, minus 120-ish, depending on where you're at, the comeback on Pinto around minus 110. But actually, some places, Pinto is even a betting favor or a betting underdog right now, a plus money. So I really like Pinto's chances in this one. He's one and on the UFC.

He's coming off a knockout win over Austin Lane in March. A couple of dudes coming in off fighting Austin Lane on this card, but we'll get to that later. Danini is 3 and 1 in the UFC. He's a winner of a division winner over Alvin Hines. June. Both are Contender Series prospect. Denise obviously has a bigger background as a former glory kickboxer, but Pinto is a guy I really liked a lot in 2024 contender series. I comped him a little bit to Alex Pereira, and I think that holds true. It won't shock me if Janata

Denise wins this fight as just a classic kickboxing match, right, a guy who just has a little more craft on the feet. But Pinto is gigantic. He hits real hard. super talented. I'm going to bet on talent over the old crafty guy, and that might be a mistake, but I'm getting plus money plus 110. I'm ready to lose this bet, but I do think there's values, so that's the one I'm taking. Two more fights on this main card. We'll keep right rolling to a featherweight contest. Ricardo Ramo Ramos taking on Khan, O'Fle. Romose, two and four over his past six, a unanimous decision lost to Chipe Mariscal back in March. O'Flee, defamation. Defendant. be it in the UFC.

Oh, and two. A tough 32 competitor lost to Muhammad Nyman in February. And straight up, I simply do not have a clue about this fight. You know, Ramos has a little bit more experience. Hopefully is dangerous, but has not been good in the promotion. I don't, I guess I'd side with Ricardo Ramos, but I am not locked into this at all. A full-blown, easy opportunity to just pass on this without the second guess. And we move on to the final main card fight of our breakdown, the first main card fight of the evening.

A featherweight contest is Lucas Almeida takes on Michael Aswell, and this is very similar to the last fight that I just broke down. Because Almeida, two and three in the UFC, split decision lost to Danny Silva back in March. That should have been a split, he lost that fight. Michael Aswell, oh and won in the promotion. He named his decision lost to Balaji Oki. Aswell, your slight betting favorite. on minus 140-ish. Almeida, the requisite comeback plus

225 plus 230 at some books. I think Aswell, I think these odds are probably correct, and so I don't have much to say here. Neither guy astounds you. Azul works at a much higher rate, higher-paced volume, and that's probably enough to carry the day here, but

you know, I'll made a, maybe the Brazil crowd gives them a boost. I don't want any part of this fight. And that's about to be a super common refrain as we move on down. to a flyway contest. Got a couple of those on this card. This is the first one we'll talk about

is Jaffa Filio taking on Clayton Carpenter. That is not Clay Guida. This is Clayton Carpenter. I understand the mistake because I make it in my head every single time. Filio, a slight underdog, even money-ish. Clayton Carper minus 120-ish.

And I will be honest, this is the one fight that I haven't placed a bet, but I'm looking at it. I'm considering. I'm open to the idea. because Philio, two and two in the U.C. Coming off, Unanacinthus, who lost to Alamazimento in May, Carpenter, two and one of the promotion,

but lost to Target Ulland Bekoff back in January. And that is sort of the question we got going on here is, how good is Clayton Carpenter? I don't know. I don't think he's amazing. Obviously, I am not sold on Jeff Fugioio, but I mostly feel that this might end up just being a competitive fight, and you're getting plus money on a guy who I do think Filio might be a little bit better of a grappler.

Carpenter's not the best defensive wrestler, so maybe if Filio moves, he opened a little as the betting favor, or he was earlier this week, he's come down to plus money. If he keeps trending, I may end up taking a shot on Filio, but otherwise, just going to pass. I think this might be a fun scrap, even if I don't have a great betting vibe for it. So we move on to heavyweight. Vitor Petrino continuing his heavyweight run as he takes on Thomas Peterson. Patrino, your betting favorite minus 2.95. Big price and old Patrino, the comeback on our boy Peterson plus 240.

Patrino is 5 and 2 in the UFC. One and 0 at heavyweight, though. He was 4 and 2 down a light heavyweight, went on a 2-fight losing streak and decided to bump up where he submitted Austin Lane back in July. So if you are looking for a gimmick paulet, the just beat Austin Lane, parley of Mario Pinto and Vitor Petrino is available, I'm not on it.

I am picking both sides to be winners, even if I don't feel great about half of that. Peterson, two in the promotion, Union and the United States of Mays in May. the reason I'm not on that parley though is because this is a dog or pass fight to me. Petrino, he is certainly more talented than Peterson, but Peterson, pretty decent wrestler, scrappy, just kind of, and what we know about Petrino is he is a terrific hammer and an awful nail. So Peterson can withstand some early pressure and then turn around.

Petrino may well wilt, you know, Peterson's never been taken down. Petrino really wants to be doing that. to me it's a dogger pass. I don't feel good enough to take the shot on Peterson, but at this price, it would not be terrible. And so that's why I don't suggest doing the Just Beat Austin Lane Parlay. We moved down to a women's ban on way contest. Be a Mosquita takes on Arena Alexiva.

Mosquita massive betting favorite minus 575. Alexiva plus 430. Mosquita is making her UFC debut. Big favorites for making USC debut, but there is a reason. Undefeated 5. and LF8 champion coming off a win back in June and a decorated grapple. This woman who has been doing competitive grappling for some time is quite, quite good at it. Alexiva, she is a lamb to slaughter here, oh and two in the UFC.

She lost to somebody called Claudia Segula in June. I know that I covered that fight and I cannot for the life from you remember it, and I wasn't going to go back and watch it. Arena Alexiva is not like a great defensive wrestle. What I will say, she's been durable in her career. I don't think she's ever been finished, but I'm not looking at that. And so Mesquita may struggle. Maybe not.

She's super talented, but I do think Bia Mesquita is going to make a strong debut here. Got her in a two-legged parlay, very, very simple, straightforward parlay. She is one piece of it. I wouldn't climb with her because she's making her UCD debut so young in the fight game. I want to feel good about climbing. But as a stock parley piece, I feel that she is doing just a okay flyweight. Next up, Lucas Rocha. on Stuart Nickel, Rocha, slight betting favor of minus one, Tony.

Nickel, around even money and maybe a little bit better, a little worse, depending. Both men, this is a mirror match here, as both men are 0 and 1 in the UFC, both men are coming off a submission loss, and both men have not fought in a year. Rocha fought in October of 2024, and Nickel fought in August of 2024. You know, I think Rocha has some talent. He's a guy of Contender Series who was super young, raw, but I haven't seen it develop that much because he hasn't fought in a year. He could come out and look amazing, hard to say,

just not betting on this fight between two guys. We've never won the promotion and haven't fought in 365 days. That takes us, too. The last thing we got real gas down on it is Lucas. I'm sorry, it is Walter Walker, taking on Moe, Usman Walker, Mine's 300 betting favorite to come back on Usman plus 240. Walker on a three-fight winning streak. I'm sorry.

I'm sorry. My mistake. On a three-fight heel-hook streak, all three opponents that he has dubbed up in the UFC, he has done it by grabbing their foot and twisting, the most recent of which was Kennedy in Zuchu in July. Usman, four and two in the UFC, which kind of surprises you, given if you've ever seen him fight. But it is where it is, and he's coming off a win over Hundi,

Abdel Wahab back in June. The question is, can Walker make it four for four? My guess is he can't make it four for four. Surely Usman's been training some leg walking, but I do think he win. Usband's not like the best defensive wrestler. He's not, frankly, he's not that good.

And ironically, Volta Valker, he is here to make sure you are no longer walking, because he's trying to take that foot home. I think he's going to get it done, and he is who I paired be a mosquito up with to get around minus one. 75 on that parley price, which I feel okay with.

Two fights left. Another fight that I was tempted by Julia Pulashtri at minus 430, taking on Carolina Kobukavich at plus 350 Pulaski. One and two in the UFC. She beat Corey McKenna, but most recently she lost to Lupido Dinas in March. Carolina, Coala Bear, my sweet baby, koala bear, two-fight losing streak. Unam's decision lost to Denise Gomez in November. is Carolyn McCoboblechavich washed?

That's really the question. Is my koala bear my soon-to-be-40? She turns 40 next week, I think, October 15th. So maybe that's two weeks from now, but soon-to-be-40, koala bear put together, got back on a wind streak after going on a big losing streak, which is really impressive. But even that wind streak felt a little smoke in me here. Now she's lost two in a row.

I think the writing is on the wall that Kareemukovych is probably, probably done with her in the May career. It's just when she figures that out. I'm not a big believer in Palastry, but if you wanted to throw Palishtry in a parley, you want to throw in the previous parley, it's probably not wrong. What I like better, though, is the over two and a half is a parley piece, which I don't have fun in anything because I didn't have anything throw it in. I liked the two leg parlay I had. But if you can get the same game parlay on Palistery and the over two and a half, I wouldn't be bad.

Or frankly, I mean, I guess at that point, you might as well just look at the Palastry by decision odds, which is minus 200, and I think that that's reasonable as well. The one thing I'll say, if Kovalkovich has any juice, this is a fight she can win,

Palastry's not very good. They both just stole out of volume, both women. And Kovo Kovic's last five, in the UFC, she's gone to decision. in Palastri, all three of her fights have hit the over two and a half year. So however you kind of want to split that, maybe I'll end up with a Palastry by decision

prop, but Kovo Kovic, which was one of my people for a hot minute, I probably don't want to see her go down like this, so I'll probably stay away. And the last fight we'll be talking about this weekend is a Bantamway contest as Luan Lasserta takes on Simon Aliva. To note, Olivera, Palae, available, but I don't know if you want to do it because this, I mean, Both of them technically, you could have got it underdog odds. Simon Oliver plus 210. Lucerta minus 260.

I kind of get it stylistically this matchup favors, but here's some important facts to know. Lucerta, O and two in the UFC, O'N two in the UFC, O'N-O-N-R-R-N-R-Rae. Another man is one in the promotion. Both have lost to good fighters, but combined O and 5, you just don't feel good about placing bets. When curtain-jurker fights like this, especially with Lucerta as big a favor, as he has, has not fought in over two years, June, 20, 23 was the last time Luan Lasserta stepped into the cage. That is just, who, buddy, is that a long time to be off? You know, we saw a fighter last week.

I cannot remember before the wife to me who it was last week. Also in the curtain jerker. is Brogan Walker, also in the curtain tricker, had not fought in 30 months. He's not quite to that 30-month mark, right? Because it's July, August, September, October. It is 28 months, but that's a really long run of not fighting for the third. I don't think you can touch him at this price. So I don't know there.

Maybe he's not as good. I wouldn't bet this either way. Dogger passed, non-passing. And that's it. That is the entirety of UFC Rio. not a bad little fight card. Going to have some fun. Next week's fight card,

Frank, a little bit better. We are going from Rio Bisionero up to Vancouver, British Columbia, the Great White North, the Kings of the North, as my guy. Rhiner DeWitter takes on

Brendan Allen for UFC, Vancouver at Rogers Arena. We will be back next week with another Nobel's point. Obviously, let's try and get a guest got a couple of guys circled, but we'll see who comes through.

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