MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Can Dustin Poirier Beat Max Holloway For A Fairytale Career Ending?

Episode Date: July 16, 2025

Dustin Poirier is about to make the walk for the final time. This Saturday, UFC 318 goes down at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, headlined by a ‘BMF’ title fight between Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. It’s the final fight in Poirier’s illustrious career, and the entire event has been built around “The Diamond” and his swan song, and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Morning Kombat’s Luke Noseda to dive into UFC 318. Topics discussed include if Poirier can get the fairytale ending to his career, whether Paulo Costa will even show up for the co-main event, Kevin Holland’s ridiculous fight schedule in 2025, break downs for the rest of the action, Jed’s latest step in The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 132 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠ Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠⁠@MainCardMinute⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back with another edition of No Betts Bard. And again, it's the first edition in a hot minute because I was a piece of shit last week and didn't do a show for UFC Nashville because my personal life got in the way. I don't apologize for that.

The card wasn't even good. It's actually really fun to watch, but not worthy of talking about in the advance. But this one is, ladies and gentlemen, because it's UFC 3. 2018 and as has become a bit of a tradition though I believe for 317 we branched out a little bit But we're back to our let's call it a successful way I don't actually think I've been very successful in the pay-per-views But hopefully my guest this week you know him

As Long Island Luke you know him as the third man of morning combat Luke Nesita Luke how excited are you for the fights this weekend buddy jed good to be here as always the fights this weekend not so much I just want to say, though, you kind of glossed over UFC Nashville. My favorite card of the year, because your favorite card. We went perfect on the main card, finished up seven units, by far my biggest hit of the year. Finally, in the green, in the black, whatever you want to call it now, on the year as well. So Nashville was good to me, man. Great card.

I did not, because I didn't do a show, I opted not to. I placed like one or two persons, like just little baby bets for funzies, but nothing, nothing, nothing significant. I did place a bet on Gabriel Bond theme that I did not deserve to win because had I climbed last week, I was almost certainly climbing with him. And that would have been very stressful.

Apparently we would have won, but I would have been like, cool, the climb died on step 20. And then I would have felt like I got away with one last week. The event was fun. I said that in our post show. I had a great time. I mean, a lot of finishes,

a lot of solid fights. is a good way to kickstart this second, you know, the back half of the year. But this weekend, outside of, I mean, there's a million things happening this weekend. Just everybody's the PFL, there's boxing, there's UFC, everything's happening this weekend. 318 is still my favorite of the bunch. I think if you could really pick and choose a little piece of everything, you could put yourself a real nice charcutory board of fights this weekend. but we are here to talk primarily about the last ride of Dustin Porier as he takes on Max Holloway for a third time in the main event for a BMF title that nobody is talking about

because of this fight doesn't need it, you know, like I think the BMF title is a net good thing, right? Like I think add a little juice to some stuff. But some fights don't need it. This is one of those that you didn't need to put a belt on the line. but nonetheless, Luke, let's dive right into this week. Max Holloway, Dustin Porier, it is the final fight of the weekend, and I think it's just going to be an unbelievable battle. Mainly, it's Porier, Max.

Their first fight they were both so young. Their second fight would have been fight of the year in just about any other year. It just so happened that 30 minutes before they fought, Israel, Dissna, and Kelvin Gastilum had a top six all-time, greatest fight ever that was inducted into the Hall of Fame this summer. So I think we can expect fireworks, but Luke, tell me what you're feeling. Like, what are the thoughts heading into this last ride for Porier? So my initial thoughts based on what you said, like, this should be a banger.

This should be a great fight. But didn't we just kind of get burned with this last weekend? Granted, it was in a different sport, but Taylor Serrano. They had two great first fights. We have all this hype going into the third, and it kind of let us down. Not saying this is going to let us down, but, like, I feel like there's a world this could let us down. Do you feel the same way? I just straight up don't feel the same way. And I hope until you mentioned Taylor Shawno 3, I didn't even think of that. And that had now you've

put the fear in me. So congratulations. I it's just so hard like when is the last time Max Holloway or Dustin Poy was in a boring fight is the thing. Like it's just it's not who they are as people. I think given the circumstances, I'm even predicting for this to be like a. especially chaotic. I think, I believe, and I'm trying to speak this one into existence here, Porier is going to come across, they're going to touch gloves, and Porier is going to stand and point at the ground. And not, we're not doing this in the last 10 seconds.

Meet me right here. This is my city. Let's do the damn thing. And we know Max will oblige if that happens. And they'll go from there. Like, they won't just stand in the, you know, in the wheelbarrow and fight the whole way. but they'll have a have a good little scrap to kick it off. And then this fight I think just should be bananas.

So I am I am anticipating this fight to end the night in a big way and for everybody to leave. Because there's been some critique of this card, Luke, and I think some of it's just, right? For sure. But I think that when the main event hits, everybody always feels better about their pay-per-view purchase, about ending the night. And this is as good a bet as any fight since Holloway Gates'ie. to hit. You know, like this is just as close as a guarantee as I can believe in.

For sure. I mean, I didn't want to put all this pessimism out there by saying it might not be that great. I'm just saying it might not live up to the second fight, which like you were saying, probably would have been fight of the year, if not for Adasanya Gaslam. I do feel like, this fight's crazy to me, dude,

because when I first read it on paper, I said to myself, I'll take whoever's plus money in this fight. I don't even care. And then, of course, it's a pick-em, and they're both minus money. and I'm like, well, shit, now who do I take? Looking at their records, Max, in 30 UFC fights,

he's only lost to champions and Dennis Bermuda. Shut out, Dennis Bermuda, Long Island legend. In the last 11 years, Dustin also only lost to champions and Michael Johnson, but we're not going to talk about that. Max has won three of his last four. Dustin has alternated wins and losses in his last six.

He would be due a win here. Just pointing that out. mentioned earlier, I would take whoever was plus money, But yo, there's actually way more signs pointing to one fighter here than I kind of realized. And it's our boy, Dustin Porre. He's going to have the hometown crowd on his side. With this being his proposed retirement fight, he better fucking leave it all in the octagon, dude.

I don't want any passiveness. I want to be all action, like you said, pointing to the ground first 10 seconds. He does get hit less often than Max. He's going to have a 3-inch reach advantage. Max is coming off his first career, K-O loss. Is his chin gone? No one even knows. Porre is already beaten him twice

and he's plus money. I love Max, but I'm riding with El Diamante here. Plus 115, Dustin Porier money line. I'm doing the same. And honestly, I feel really good about it.

Me too. Like I was not the, I did not come into this being like, I'll pick whoever's plus money. I was like, I don't know. I came into it with open eyes. And then I dug into it.

I don't think Dustin Porreier should be the underdog. Max, can win. Of course Max Holloway can win this fight. But, I mean, when they fought the second time, granted, there are different circumstances. Max is now fully committed to lightweight, right? And like, so theoretically he'll carry a little more power. Maybe, maybe he can take the shots a little bit better, though I'm not even certain that's true. But like, in that second battle, Porier jawed him a bunch. And Max, you know, Max did the Max thing. He outlanded Porre in that fight. But Porre just had great

boxing defense that really had Max confused for big stretches. And he hurt him. Like he cracked him and hurt him a bunch and that like the more effective strikes. And given where they're at, like I know Porre is coming off a loss. That was an incredibly competitive fight with this. La Machchev. He was the top pound for pound fighter in the world. Max had some moments against Ilya but that fight was not especially competitive. And then he got brutally knocked out for the first time in his career. Like, Max has had an all-time great legendary chin. Everybody's chin goes. And once it goes once, then it just becomes more likely it can go again or he can get hurt more again. How will frankly he respond to his first time being, you know, stopped? And like you said, Porre is going to let it all

hang out there. Like, this is, this is it. There is no tomorrow for him. And so I think just stylistically, I think Porre's defensive capabilities gave Max a ton of problems, and Max will have to have some adjustments, but Porre is very good in that realm as well. And so I like getting plus money on him. He hits harder. He is the much more natural lightweight. I know they both have fought at featherweight.

Porier hasn't been able to make featherweight in seven years. Max still could go back down if he chose to do so. And so given all the circumstances, I think these odds should be reversed. And so getting Porier, plus 115 feels feels like great value and so I'm on that also I was looking for climb bets this week we're climbing and we have one oh shit had a lot of close calls a lot of options that I was looking at one of those options is uh the alternate overs for this fight now those aren't everywhere but in the off-stores the alternate overs are there uh the alternate over minus or one and a half

is minus 750 per the offshores and so that's not like that's not climbable but we'll what I also looked at there is the alternate over two and a half and if you look at the alternate over two and a half their last like 10 fights both of these dudes are going over two and a half almost almost exclusively you know max has a legendary chin for a reason porier has not like he the the BSD thing he finished BSD but then everything else is mostly going a little longer over one and a half is better but we decided to take that over two and a half put it in a pacifist parlay with a couple of other alternate overs, and we'll get to those as we go on down the list. Luke, anything left to say about this before we advance to the presumptive co-main event, though I say presumptive for a reason. No, just to back up your point of this hit in the over two and a half, I had a stat up here. Holloways hit it in 15 of his last 17. I was looking at that prop, too. I like that a lot.

But if your theory of them pointing down in the first 10 seconds is true, I wouldn't feel as good about that. I'm not climbing with it, but if that's how I lose, then fine, I'll lose this parlay, because that would be cool as hell. That's how it goes. That takes us to the co-main event ostensibly. We'll see if it ends up happening. It is

Paulo Costa taking on Roman Coppola in a middleweight matchup. Costa, around a plus 215-ish underdog. Coppola of around minus 2.45, depending on where you're looking. Costa, 2 and 3 over his past 5 has not fought in over a year.

actually closer to 18 months, last fought in February of 2024. Lou, that lost to Robert Whitaker at UFC 298. Koppelov on a good little run right now, four and one in his past five, two-fight win streak. Somewhat controversial TKO win over Chris Curtis. Would have won the fight even if he didn't get the last second sort of questionable stoppage, but he was well on his way to getting that decision either way. So good little run for Roman Koppelov. How are you feeling about the co-mate event, Luke?

if we get it, because you can never trust Paulo Costa to show up to the cage. I mean, yeah, this might be at 205 come fight night, but we'll see. You mentioned Costa's lost two of his last three. He's actually lost three of his last four if we want to extend it, but let's dissect that a little bit. Two of those three losses came to former champions. The other one came to a former title challenger. The one win in that span also came to a former champion.

He's not losing to scrubs here. Copy Love, only fought one guy in the top 15, and he lost. Granted it was Fluffy Hernandez, who's a fucking hammer, but like, I don't know, dude, you've lost the one time you stepped it up. Palo's kind of been hanging in that top 10 area. I like that a lot. Coppilov does come in, having won two straight, split decision over Caesar Almeida, which, like, you could argue he lost.

You said he was on his way to win in the Chris Curtis fight. Maybe it's because I had a bet on Chris Curtis in that fight, but I was like, dude, if this had gone the distance, just one more second, maybe Chris Curtis gets the nod there? I thought it was closer. Maybe it would have been 29. I thought they were one in one, and pretty clearly he was going to win the third since he dropped him. He got the stoppage. Yeah, I'm in.

I know. All right, either way, it was a closer fight than we think. Also, Chris Curtis. It was a very competitive fight, but yeah. Coppilov will have a three-inch reach advantage here, and he has actually shown he can wrestle when he needs to, which makes me a little nervous. But Palo Costa lands more often. He's got good takedown defense. And I feel like his back is against the wall here if he wants to stay relevant or possibly.

even keep his job, dude. He could get cut after this. The odds just feel way too far apart for a fight that I could honestly see either guy winning, especially in three-rounder. I got to take the value here on the dog. Bo Hacchina plus 225, baby. My concern with this is, uh, I don't know where Apollo Costa's heads at, you know? Like he hasn't fought in a year. He's sort of a weird dude, frankly. Like he's, he's tweeting all sorts of stuff. He doesn't seem like he's that locked into fighting. and he hasn't like his performances haven't like the Strickland loss was not a good fight from

Paulo Costa I know Sean Strickland is a hard dude to fight but it wasn't very good uh Whitaker you know like these are he's just been strange he's just been strange and so I can't like theoretically everything you said feels like it's correct because like he'll just march forward and Chris Curtis had a lot of success just marching forward against Roma Koppelov. That is what Polokosa's style is, but I don't have any confidence in him. And so I think the price on Koppelov is too high, but I wouldn't, I don't feel good bet on Costa here. So I'm not even betting it.

And frankly, since the fight may not happen, I don't even feel bad. I don't have to be concerned about getting my money back when this fight falls apart at Way-Ns for one reason or another. That's true. And I can feel good about, you know, Bocaini, possibly putting out a dud performance when this fight falls apart inevitably anyway. So there you go. Hi, I'm Sophia Loper Caro, host of the Before the Chorus podcast.

We dive into the life experiences behind the music we love. Artists of all genres are welcome. And I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks like glass animals. I guess that was the idea was to try something personal and see what happened. And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy. And you can listen wherever you get your podcasts. Oh, and remember, so much happens before the chorus.

That takes us to the feature bout of the evening, a fight I do enjoy, and feel good that will happen because it's too due to show up. Kevin Holland is one of them, and Daniel Rodriguez is the other in a welterweight contest, Holland, minus 395 betting favorite to come back on Rodriguez plus 285. This is Holland's fourth fight of the year, Luke. two and one in this year. Both of those wins, he's currently on the win streak. Both of those are him fighting at Walter Waite, and he's doing it again for this against D.Rod, who is also on a two-fight winning streak,

coming off at TKio win over Santiago Panzanibio back in May. Luke, how do you see the feature bout going? Well, first of all, you said you're confident this fight will happen because both guys show up, but this is actually the third time this fight has been booked. Five years in the making now, they were booked in 2020. Holland had to pull out with a shoulder injury. Then they were on that infamous Chimae of Diaz card in 2022.

They both had last minute change of opponents. They both made it to the cage. You're right, you're right, you're right. You mentioned they're both on a two-fight win streak. Kevin Holland now six in three in the UFC at Welterweight. I like Kevin Holland here, dude. He's six years younger. He's going to have a seven-inch reach advantage.

And he should be better than DROT on the ground if it happens to go there. Last time Holland fought at UFC 316, I did mention to you because I was on Vicente-Luke. I said, yo, Kevin Holland only beats guys over the age of 34 at welterweight. Now we just got to move that stat back one year because Vicente Leuke is 33. So Kevin Holland undefeated against guys over the age of 33 at welterweight. D. Rod's 38. Easy money. Kevin Holland. Kevin Allen money line.

I got them at minus 350. It's part of a three-leg parlay I got. I'll get to the rest as we go. But yeah, I'm feeling good about this one. I'm feeling real good about this one. I strongly considered Kevin Holland as the climb this week. Um, I, everything you said, I, I've just been on this corner for a while. Kevin Holland, the welterweight, extremely good.

Kevin Holland, the middleweight, extremely mid. And he keeps doing it because, you know, he likes the paycheck and he can get some wins there. But like, I don't care about him fighting a middleweight at welterweight. He is, you know, he had a nip-tuck fight with the current welterweight champion of the world, Jack Delamadelan. Like, he is, he is very good in this weight class. I also think DROT is pretty close to washed. I thought he was washed and then he routed off two winds sort out of nowhere.

And so, like, he's hanging on in credit to him. But I think everything tilts in the favor of Kevin Holland here. The only mild concern, his pace is so high that it's really hard. You just never see fighters who fight four or five times a year string together, like, super long win streaks because they're fighting every other weekend. And so, like a little bit of concern there, but not enough. I also have Kevin Holland in a three-leg parlay. Interesting to see if we'll have, you know, the same legs going on here.

That would be cool. But we'll work through it as we move on because we have a featherweight bout to talk about. One that I'm genuinely really intrigued by. It is Dan Igay taking on Patricio Pitbull and Pitbull's sophomore voyage into the Octagon. But Igay is your betting favorite minus 170 to come back on Pitbull plus 145. Ege, really strange little career run. he's only two and three over his past five, but like the circumstances are definitely a little wonky there.

Like he has the Bryce Mitchell loss, but then he did the Diego Lopez fight on three hours notice, which is insane. And then instead of getting the goodwill from the promotion for doing that, they fed him Lorone Murphy, who had a really competitive fight with, but it's Laurel Murphy. Like nobody's excited about that fight.

And so still looking for some get back for Igay. Maybe it will come against Pitbull who lost his UFC debut to Yaia Rodriguez a few months ago. And so how are you, are we going to see a better version of Pitbull? Is Pitbull just too far past it? Where are we out with Igay? This feels like the appropriate matchup for Pitbull at this stage. But how do you see it going? It feels very appropriate.

I don't like the two things you just said there, is Pitbull past it? Is Igay not at his level? I don't really know. I lean I here. He comes in having lost three of his last five. but like you mentioned, two of them against top seven guys, Diego Lopez being on three hours notice. Also, I don't think Pitbull is going to have the success

that Bryce Mitchell did against Ige, like wrestling him the whole time. Pitbull has lost three of his last fours. Only win in the last three years came to Jeremy Kennedy, who's on a four-fight losing streak right now. So it's really not aged well at all. Ege lands more strikes per minute. He's going to have a four-inch reach advantage. Pipple gets hit more than twice as often as he lands.

I got a ride with, 50k Ege here, minus 162. It's the second leg of my Kevin Holland parley. The next one coming in the next fight. Oh, interesting. I am also riding with Dan Ege. I thought he beat Lerone Murphy, just straight up. I thought he had beaten him.

And if he had beaten Lerone Murphy, everything feels way better for Dan Ege. Like, the whole vibe right now is there. And I just think Pipples washed. the Jeremy Kennedy thing is just like it's Jeremy Kennedy he didn't look like yeah I don't even think yeah years like all that great anymore and pit bull couldn't really look any type of competitive there I this just feels like one dude who still has the goods and one dude who does not and so I'm on Dan Ige I also have taken the I gay pit bull over one and a half alternate over it's minus 425 Ige is in nine of his past 10 and so I'm on Dan Igey gay I also have taken the I gay pit bull over over it's minus 425 Ige is in nine of his past 10 has gone over one and a half. Pitbull, only six of his past 10, but Ege's never been stopped. So if someone's going to get stopped,

it will be pit bull. And Ege is not a huge finisher, especially early. So the over one and a half there, that's with the DPMax and one more to come for a little alternate over parlay going on. I feel like that should be your climb, dude. I like that a lot,

the over one and a half in this. No, no, no. We love our climb. All right. We honestly consider doing like six legs of climbs this week, but we're not going to, you know. All right. Well, we should have done it.

The other week I made a climb and then a would be the climb parlay. And the would be the climb parlay also hit. So I could have just done five legs on five, which was incredible. But we have one last main card bout to talk about. It's a lightweight contest. Is Michael Johnson taking on Daniel Zell Huber. Johnson, big underdog plus 380. Zell Huber coming in around minus 500.

Johnson, though, on a two-fight winning streak, which not a lot of people would have said a few years ago for, I want to say that he is 39. He is 39. Recently turned 39 years old, but on a two-fight win streak coming off the knockout win over Atman of Zaitar in December, Zell Huber, three and two over his past five and lost a split decision to Esteban Uribevich at UFC 306 that was many people's choice for a fight of the year last year. I won't bury the lead here. This is my climb. I'm on Daniel Zell Huber. I think Daniel Zell Huber is about to have a real big day. He is much bigger.

He is much younger. You know, Michael Johnson, credit to him for this current run. Like, genuinely really impressive, given his limitations as a fighter and sort of where he's at in his career to put together like a late career run like this. But Zell Huber doesn't get knocked out. and so I don't know what like he'll engage in a war with you but Michael Johnson can get knocked out and Zell Huber sure can't and even if he doesn't like I I think that he is just so far advanced of where Michael Johnson's at at this point I feel great about this one hopefully the climb

continues step 21 will be down I'm rooting for you dude but in looking at this fight I did not come to the same conclusion as you I mean Michael Johnson he has won three of his last four all Three of those, though, came to guys no longer in the UFC. By the way, I am assuming here that Ottmane Zaytar has been cut. He has been knocked out three straight times, so I don't see him being on the roster. Maybe he still is, though. Zell Huber has won three of his last four. He is coming off that lost to Riebevich that you mentioned.

Michael Johnson, 11 years older here and was finished in his last loss, but still somewhat like his chances, dude. Zell Huber gets hit twice as often as MJ, and Johnson hits hard with 44% of his wins coming by knockout. You mentioned Zell Huber's never been knocked out, but you know, this is the first time for everything. He's only 26 years old. On the other hand, though, Zell Huber will have a 4-inch reach advantage, and he's never been finished before. So I don't love the Michael Johnson bet. I couldn't actually take it myself. I may dabble with the spread bet when it drops, because I feel like I could get Michael Johnson plus seven and a half at plus money. He just has to win one round

on one judge's scorecard, assuming it goes the distance. But my official play here is the over one and a half rounds at minus 200. I parlayed it with Dan Igay Moneyline. Kevin Holland Moneyline gets us plus 212. Johnson's hit it in five of his last seven and Zell Huber's hit it in six straight fights. So I like that one a lot. That's not bad.

I am just concerned that like CDF just killed him. And like CDF's good. CDF's really good. But like I don't know. I like Zell Huber a lot and I kind of think Zell Huber is going to goop him. hopefully it's in the second or third round hopefully it's after the seven minute mark for both of our sakes and that takes us right on down the road to the prelim card and the prelim main event is a heater one it's a ban on weight contest kaila philippe veneas olivara aka loch dog oliver your betting

favorite minus 175 phillips plus one forty five phillips three and two over his past five in the promotion coming off the unanimous decision lost to rob font back in october Loke Dog, 3 and O in the UFC, unanimous decision win over Saeed and Armaghamedov. Loak Dog, just surging right now. Coming off the contender series where I thought he showed some promise but was not needed a lot of development, he's doing it running through people right now.

How are we feeling about Loke Dogg? I'm hyped on the guy, but like, Kyler Phillips isn't really a joke here, dude. And you know I love a good gimmick, so just listen to this real quick. Phillips in the middle of an interesting trend to his pro career. Won the first five fights, then lost, then won four in a row, then lost, then won three in a row, then lost. He's about to go on a two-fight win streak. I mean, the signs are right in front of us.

You can't argue with math. Exactly. Loke Dog, he has looked great, I mentioned, but he was taken down in all three of his UFC bouts. Granted, he still won all three of those fights, but Kyler averages three takedowns per 15 minutes. So it's a somewhat interesting wrinkle there. On the other hand, Loak Dog can crack, and he's already. beaten a good wrestler in Ricky Simone, so like he's kind of already proven he can hang with a good wrestler. I don't know. Definitely intrigued by Kyler Phillips at plus money, but I feel like the momentum

of Loak Dog right now is kind of hard to deny. Phillips never been finished though, so I could see this one going long and maybe he could steal around. I'm going to take Kyler Phillips with the spread when it drops. I'm willing to go three and a half on this, but you know, depending on the odds, might go five and a half, seven and a half, but either way, Kyler Phillips with the spread, I think he can steal around here. I think this is just a perfectly lined fight. Like, frankly, I think, like, Kylo Fillips' game, he's been in there with much better opposition, certainly more veteran.

But Loke Dog, like you said, the momentum's hard to ignore. He's the more dynamic guy of the two, but I'm still not, like, all the way sold on him. This is, like, perfect matchmaking to, we're going to find out how good Loke Dog is because Kylea Phillips, you know, he's a top 15, fringe top 15 guy. So if you're going to beat him, and if you're going to beat him convinced him, then all right look dog let's let's see the title run come from you so this great matchmaking and the odds makers have it dead on and so i have no play on this fight and we can move on to a middleweight contest where i do have some action because marvin vittori is taking on brendan allen allen a minus two 45 betting favorite to come back on vatory plus two hundred vatory two and three over his past five but currently on two fight losing streak unanimous decision loss to roman delizze back in march Allen a two-fight winning streak or I'm sorry Alan a two-fight losing streak he was on like a eight or seven or eight-fight winning streak but lost back-to-back most recently the unanimous decision to Fluffy Hernandez in February Luke I'll just tell you this I don't have a a great sense that Marvin Vittori is still good at fighting I think that he's probably well beyond his best years and so I got Brendan out at mine

205 straight up. Damn. I feel very good about that because Vitori has... If Alan can get takedowns, he's going to win, and Jared Kenan-near took Votory down four times. Like, I think Brendan Allen can't have plenty of success in that. It's not like Vittori is really going to... It's not like a big hitter.

He's not going to hurt Brendan Allen if he can stuff some takedown. So I think Allen could even win a striking affair if that's what happens here. So I like Brennan Allen. I also... I like the over one and a half. It's minus 500. Votory's hit it in nine of his past. six or not sorry nine of his past ten uh and that is marvin vittory's game he goes to the cards

almost every single time if you're betting overs with marvin vittories fighting you're probably making money so that is the final leg of my passers parley that pays out around minus 120 uh what do you have for this one loop uh well i you mentioned you like brendan allen in this fight and i understand that because he did win their first fight in the uh hard rock casino in hollywood florida you know he landed didn't even mention that yeah So there you go. Both these guys a lot younger than I thought, dude. Brendan Allen is still in his 20s.

That blew my mind. Still feels like a who's coming, who's going fight, though. Like the loser will never challenge for a title. The winner may have a run in them down the road. We'll see. Both these guys have lost two straight, like you mentioned. But they did come against top 10 middleweights, so really not bad losses at all.

It is an interesting matchup because Vitori does like to wrestle and Alan probably does his best work on the ground. So I could see like a camarader. Rob Kobe situation where there's just a standing for 15 minutes. And if that's the case, I got to lean Vittori here. He lands more strikes per minute. Despite what people may think of him having zero head movement, he actually has better striking defense than Brendan Allen.

And I think he'll want to get this one back after that L on the casino floor. Both these guys truthfully have burned me a lot before. I don't really trust either guy when the odds are this far apart. It feels like a 50-50 fight. I got to take the dog here. Marvin Vittori, got him at plus 225. And that takes us to another welterweight contest. Francisco Prado taking on Nikolai Veritnikov.

Prado, the betting favorite at minus 135. Veritnikov plus 120-ish. Prado is a strange career because he's 1 and 3 in the UFC. He's on a two-fight losing streak. And I don't feel like people are even holding that against him because those losses have come to Zell Huber and Jake Matthews. Jake Matthews obviously picked up a big win on a good win streak right now. uh, Veritnikov, oh and two in the promotion, a split decision lost to Danny Barlow in his debut, and then a TK lost Austin Vanderford in February.

Uh, how do you see this one going? Luke, I have thoughts, but I'd like to hear yours first. This to me is kind of like what you were saying with the Phillips Olivera fight, where I feel like this fight is actually lined pretty perfectly here. Both these guys have lost two straight, but they've come against decent competition. You mentioned Zell Huber, Jake Matthews. A little hard to tell where they both stand. Prado gets hit almost twice as often as Veretnikov, but also lands about his twice as often, so hard to tell who has the advantage there.

I do think the wrestling is going to be a factor here. Prado hasn't shown much of his wrestling so far, but he did get a take down against Jake Matthews. And, like, that's pretty good. He's shown he can wrestle when he needs to. Verretnikov was taken down six times in his three Zufa fights, so I could see a world where Prado's like, fuck it, I'll take him to the ground. Prado, 12 years younger, half of his wins have come by K.O. and Vretnikov has been K-Oed twice before.

I like the price on him. I'm going to ride with the youth here. Francisco Prado Money Line, got him at minus 135. Throwing it in a parlay. I'll get to it as we go. The Daxan bet only is just straight up on Prado at minus 135.

I like him. I think he's talented. He's super young. The biggest concern I have for him is he is very clearly, he's probably a lightweight. He's very small. He's got short arms.

And Vretenikov is going to have like some size advantage. year, but I think you can go to the grappling if he wants to. I think it's just volume boxing game can give Nikolai some problems. And so, you know, maybe he ends up just being too small and this is the fight where he figures it out and has to drop. But I think Prado still has a fairly bright future. He's 23 years old, and I like what I've seen so far.

Because, you know, again, fairly competitive with guys like Daniel Zell Huber and Jake Matthews. And he's still so young. he's just going to be better every time. So I like the price on Prado. I feel like he should be a bigger favorite than he is. Same. That takes us to the last of the middle prelim section, the ESPN prelim section.

A Teba Gautier taking on Robert Valentine, Valentin, not, don't remember which one it is, don't care enough. Gautier, minus 470, Valentin plus 360. Gautier, 1 and O in the UFC, a knockout win over Jose,

Adina back in March. Valentin 0 and 2 in the UFC a split decision loss to Torres Finney back in April. Do you have much to say on this one? Because to me, this is a pretty short breakdown. Yeah, I mean, I wrote a little something up on it, but the reality is this is a highlight real waiting to happen. Gaultier has won six straight by K.O. Valentin has lost two straight, including being K-O'd in one of them, not to mention Gaultier lands over six strikes per minute while Valentin lands an anemic one strike. per minute. Granted, Valentin did lose

the two good wrestlers in his two UFC bouts and was taken down nine times, so a little hard to get strikes off there. Also, just got to point out that Therese Finney fight,

the fact that that was a split decision is fucking crazy because Therese definitely won all three rounds of that fight, but whatever, I digress. People just hate him because he's the most

boring fighter who may be. That's true. I do think this one will say standing. I favor Gauthier, given all the aforementioned reasons, and in the fact he's going to have a four-inch

reach advantage. And yeah, probably gets it done by KO. The odds, though, minus 275. Little too expensive for me. Don't love it. Instead, I'll be taking a flyer on the over one and a half rounds at plus money, plus

$1.14. Gautier's hit it in three of his eight pro fights, and Valentin is hit it in five of his last eight. That's a good enough success rate for me to take a flyer on it. That's bold of you. I am going Gautier by murder. He is leg two. He's parlayed up with Kevin Hahn and one more fighter to come. I this is this is a highlight setup fight

he's one of my favorite prospects off of the most recent contender series and this is a matchup made to look good and I think he's going to do exactly that honestly if you have your own climb going at home would be a fine selection chose not to just because I don't really like to climb with people this raw but he's going to win

so it doesn't really matter and that takes us to the early prelims, so we still got five more fights to go, but let's crank through them because a few of these, I don't have much to say on it. Adam Fugit in a welterweight contest taking on Islam Doolotov, Doolotov, a pretty big betting favorite minus 520. Come back on Fuget plus 440, Fuget 2 and 2 in the UFC, split decision went over Josh Quinlan in June, and Doolotov finally making his UFC debut a contender series signing from 2024, had been booked.

some things happened now is finally getting this to go and he's again potentially being set up like Gautier is with a big set up fight. Do you think that's the case here? 100%. I haven't seen much from Dooltov besides this Contender Series

fight not only lasted a couple minutes but I have seen enough from Fuget to think that he's not on this level, you know what I mean? He gets hit about as often as he lands. He was finished in his last three losses and all 11 of Doolotov's wins have come by finish. Not to mention Doolotov 10 years younger. I'm going to take Doolotov by finish at minus

375. Yeah, it's expensive. That was my Francisco Prado parlay. Those two together plus 120. Don't hate it. I think Dula Tau's going to win. I compared him to athletic Tim Means coming off contender series. He's just, he's an athlete, but also will get grimy and rugged. And I think he's probably just going to chew up if you get here. I don't have a bet because the price is just enormous, but you want to throw him as a parley fodder. or whatever, I don't think you can go wrong there. That takes us to a light heavyweight contest. Jimmy Crute taking on Marcino.

And this is just deeply interesting because Crute is a sizable betting favor. Mine is $250 to come back on Procneal plus 205. Despite the fact that Crout has not won a fight since 2020, he is 03 and 2 over his past five. A majority draw with Hidalpho Bellato at UFC 312 is his most recent outing. That being said, Prokneo, not really lighting the world on fire either, two and three over his past five submitted by Modestis Pekowskis in July of last year. So it's been about a year since he has competed. Should Jimmy Crute, who has not want to fight in half a decade, should he be a minus 250 betting favorite over a reasonable fighter?

Like a fighter who, it's not a total joke that they're in the UFC. No, he shouldn't, but I will just let everyone know that when I break down any fight, I never look at the odds. I break it down what I think's going to happen and then I look at the odds and I'll be pleasantly surprised when someone's a dog who I think is going to win. At the exact opposite here, I'm thinking Jimmy's a dog the whole time I'm breaking it down just to find out he's minus 250. I'm like, oh my God. But anyways, what happened to Jimmy Crute, dude, comes into the UFC, wins four or five all by finished, all against legit competition. now like you mentioned hasn't won a fight in almost five years granted two draws he's only 29 i know dude wild i know he has no gas thing too uh prakneyo alternated wins and losses in his last six if you want to follow the gimmick he is due a win here just saying both these guys pretty similar striking numbers prokneal landing about one more strike per minute nothing crazy crout has actually outstruck his opponent though in three of his last five despite not winning any of those bouts uh the real factor here should be jimmy's wrestling. He averages almost four takedowns per 15 minutes, and Prach Nia was taken down a combined

10 times in his last three losses. Prach Niel has only also won one fight in the UFC in which he was taken down. So it feels like if Jimmy can get him down, clear path to victory here. I am going to ride with Jimmy Krupp Moneyline at minus 250. I hate the odds on it. I was actually hoping he'd be a dog, but I talked myself into it either way. So let's go, Jimmy. You're not wrong. Like, that's the thing. As I was breaking this down, I was like, how is he? a betting favorite and I was like oh because he's gonna win he's just gonna tackle him that's it like you just you just have to tackle prognio and that's it but it still feels so grimy to lay minus 250 on a dude who hasn't won in five years granted you know his last win is over the dude who

just tapped uh pragnow so you know m mhmath or whatever but uh i couldn't feel i could not possibly feel confident betting on jimmy crud even though it seems like he's going to finally break this sort of cold streak he's been on for, you know, if you had a child right after Jimmy Kruit beat Modestis Pekowskis in 2020, that child would be in kindergarten and have never seen a world where Jimmy Kruid has won a fist fight. It's a wild thing to feel to put a bet on and I just can't talk myself and do it. I just want to say, I think the worst part is I've probably bet on him in all five of those fights. I know for a fact, I bet on him against Bolado and he was a fat dog. It's not a push though.

Yeah, but it was like, oh my God, he's going to win and he was plus 200. Yeah. Yeah. Tough scenes. Well, maybe he can break the cycle here. Speaking of people that I've bet on and that aren't doing too hot lately. Another matchup of just absolute guys who probably should have already been cut. Ryan Span taking on Lucas Breske.

Span, big betting favorite. Mine's 220. Breske plus 185. Span. It's won one fight of his past. and most recently was knocked out by is I actually let me look this up is he the only person who's ever been knocked out by waldo cortezocosta because lord knows waldo cortezocosta does not knock a lot of people out oh no because he also knocked out Lucas the two dudes in the UFC that waldo cortezicosta has knocked out are now fighting I learned that in real time folks I don't know I just wouldn't touch this fight that's my breakdown These are the two dudes you got knocked out by WCA. Don't bet on this fight.

No, you got to bet on every fight. Let that be a lesson to you guys at home. Jed, you already mentioned loser goes home after this fight, right? For sure. Yeah, all right. Absolutely. Span lost four of his last five. Breske lost five of his last six.

Span will have a one inch height and reach advantage. I don't really know if that's worth anything. Breske does land more strikes per minute. Span gets hit more often than he lands, though. Span could try and mix in the wrestling here. He does average one take down for 15 minutes. and Breske doesn't have good takedown defense. But oddly enough, his lone UFC win came in a fight

that he got taken down four times. So that's pretty random. I want to talk. No, more importantly, who is that lone win against? Walter. Say who that lone winning against him. It was Walter Walker, right? Yeah, the guy who's somehow like going to be a ranked head.

Maybe he is. I didn't even look at the rankings. He's got to be. Three wins in a row, you're definitely ranked. And finishes, you're ranked. Almost certainly. Just a heel-hooked Kenny Nunchucks, a dude who just killed Breske. Like it's so, so silly.

Let me pull the rankings, see where he's out. I'm certain he's ranked. He should be by the end of today. They usually upload it or updated on Tuesday. They may be doing it now because the page isn't opening up. But yeah, absolutely insane. I was going to say, though, I want to talk myself into Breske, but I cannot trust either guy here.

Let's just be real. Don't talk yourself into Breske. That's a bad idea. There's two props I do like here, though. How about this? Fight N by K.O. Minus 155. I think that's a solid parlay piece.

Granted, like Ryan Spann, majority of his wins come by sub. You wouldn't think that, but it is a heavy wave fight. Both these guys have been knocked out before, totally on the table. But you know what I'm going to take? I'm going to do it again, Jed. The over one and a half at plus money, plus $1.35. Ryan Span has hit it in three of his last four, and Breskes hit it in seven of his last 10.

That's a pretty good success rate. Living a dangerous life this weekend, buddy. Dude, you know what it is? I just hit Tafa Tokos over one and a half, so I'm riding that high of a plus money over one and a half. As a man who popularized heavyweight overs, you fly too close to the sun, eventually you get burnt. But Godspeed, let's talk about a middleweight contest.

Bruno Faheda taking on Jackson McVeigh. Bruno, four and two in the promotion, submitted Armand Petrosian back in March. It was the most recent win. McVeigh had a bit of a journey to get here. He's supposed to make his UFC debut at UFC 317, but I forget who the first opponent was who pulled out and then Sardriek Duma pulled out because he couldn't get his ankle

monitor off. And so they bumped McVeigh back a couple of weeks to this card and slotted him in here against Bruno Faheta. I have, I've still not seen Jackson McVeigh fight, so I have no concept for what he does. And as a result, have no bet on this fight. All right. Well, I've never seen him fight either, but that doesn't mean I can't assume. That doesn't mean I can't assume. Bruno Ferre, first of all, my kind of fighter, dude, 15 pro fights, none of them got in the distance. This guy's like, fuck the scorecards. Jackson McVeigh, apparently, same exact thing. Six fights, all six coming by finish.

Did do a deep dive, though, into Jackson's six opponents. Only two of them had a winning record, and their combined record is 22 and 27. So not fighting the best guys here. He will have a six-inch height and five-inch reach advantage over Bruno, and it is worth noting that his three-submission wins were two. guillotine and a dars. So Bruno better protect his neck here. You know what I'm saying?

I still like Bruno everywhere, and we all know all he knows is finishes. So my prediction, not my bet, is Fajara by finish. It's minus 500, which is why it's not my bet. Jed,

I am again. Going to take the over one and a half rounds here at plus 2.30, plus 230? McVeigh's never hit it in his career, but he's only had six fights, and he's finally stepping it up. Ferreira's hit it in two straight. I bet people didn't really.

realize that, you know, you got to take a dab on it. You are brave, man. Also, uh, just to circle the square here, Walter Walker not ranked. What? The only movement in the heavyweight division, Talasin Tashira went from 13 to 14. Martin Boudai and he swapped places in the UFC heavyweight rankings. How did Walker not take Talasin's spot? That is ridiculous. You know, uh, because, you know, you know, why? Because he has a lot. a loss to Lucas Breske on his on his resume. Yeah, but he's still won three-street. I don't know.

Yeah. It is what it is, but let's talk about the final fight that we have to speak about, and that makes it the first fight of the evening. It is a women's flyweight contest between Carly Judez and Nicole Collierre. Judice for minus 2.95, betting favorite, the comeback on Kalari plus 2.25.

Judice, one-on-one in the UFC, headkick knockout win over Yenisi Dubin back in March to get her first W in the promotion. Carly already lost her U.S.D. debut a split decision to Ernest Carr KT back in January. I'll let you have the final say here, and I'll just say, I am big on Carly Judice as a prospect.

I think she has a lot of good signs to her game. She is super mean, super active, and that feels like it's a kind of person, super young, and that sort of person I think has a bright future, particularly in the women's flyweight division. I've been backing her since Contendency's now continued to do so, So she rounds out the parlay for me with Kevin Holland and Tibugatia to get that two plus money. I actually do like Kaliari to some extent, but just not nearly as much.

And I think that the sheer volume, Judice, is going to bring and put on Kaliari is really going to make her have some struggles in this one. I could see that. Also a hometown fight for her. She is from Louisiana. Dude, this is the rare women's flyweight fight where both girls have only ever won by finish. Kind of crazy. Judice? not realize that.

Yeah, Judice has some wild striking stats. Through three Zufa fights, she lands over 11 strikes per minute. That would be... She's just gas, man. Dude, that would be first in the UFC if she had the minimum five UFC fights. But how about this? She also gets hit with over 10 strikes per minute, which would also be first in the UFC. I mean, she's standing in the phone booth and just slinging up.

Doesn't go fuck. Don't give a fuck. And that's the thing. Like, I thought she beat Ernestica Caracady on Contender Series. and then Caracady, you know, beat Calliari and the thing. So you got some of MMA math going for us as well. I also thought she beat Gabriella Fernandez in her UFC debut. Like I think Carly Jude should be undefeated right now.

And instead she has two losses. And I feel like we're getting a better price as a result of that. I'm hyped that you're so high on her because I was just like, yeah, I mean, I'll get to it. But I ended up taking her and I was kind of iffy on it. But you're selling me a lot on this. She's going to have a six-inch reach advantage. Calliari will probably try and wrestle. she does average three takedowns per 15 minutes,

but Judis' take down defense isn't terrible, and Kaliari gets hit almost twice as often as she lands. I'm going to take Carly Judis in a parlay. I haven't really decided what it is yet. Could do the Louisiana parlay if I take her with Dustin, you know, just saying. That's not a bad one. Right? I'm considering that, but I already have the single on Dustin.

I don't know how overexposed. I really want to be on that. But either way, we'll take her in something as the week goes on. Fair, fair. And that, ladies and gentlemen, is UFC 318 wrapped up. I don't have anything set right now

for any of the other stuff that is going on this week. Most notably, PFL is the big one that is happening this week. I don't, whatever they're calling it, Africa. FFL champion series, Cape Town or something. So many goddamn names. You're just not doing yourself any favors, guys.

I know, literally. Also, I think the start time is not bad, but I've had also. It's 2 p.m. main guard, 10 a.m. pre-limb. Yeah, it's just like, okay, sure, if you want to spend all day watching it, which I'll probably end up doing.

But I'll probably put together a parlay. Let me even pull up some odds. Where can I get some PFL odds? Dude, so I looked like two days ago, and they didn't even have anything out. I still do not see them. Yeah, so. Sick.

Because, like, I'd probably parlay up Eblen and Ditchieva. That seems like just a straightforward, easy parlay to make. Might throw some cash on dinner. Dennis Goltsov with Corey Anderson coming up to heavyweight. I don't know that Corey Anderson heavyweight is something I'm interested in. So we'll see as the thing goes on as we get a little closer. But any other action you've highlighted this week, are you in on the Usik Dubois fight?

Like, where are we at? Naturally, I put a bet in on like pretty much any combat sports event going on. But like you, I mean, PFL hasn't even fucking dropped anything. So no, I haven't done any PFL yet. I will end up throwing like a Paciow, Barrios bed in. I don't know which side I'm leaning there yet But BC's on the call so shout out to him I'll be throwing bets in on that

We got Bam Rodriguez this weekend We got Usik Dubois I mean I'll have a bunch coming in I'll probably tweet them out or something As the week goes on nothing yet though There's a non-zero chance I climb with Usik too He's minus 430 I'm just like he's gonna beat Dubois I don't know dude remember the body shot in the first fight

He's gonna he's it's At worst the third best boxer on the planet right now But he's also like, worst, he's probably higher than that. How old is he, though? He's up there, right? I think he's 38, 37. 38 and Dubois, if I'm not mistaken, is like mid-20s.

27, yeah. Oh, say, I would have gone eight late 20s? 27, okay? Yeah. So, like, there's that factor, the youth, you know? I don't love that. See, look, you've talked me out of climbing with it. I will almost certainly be putting some bets down on that just for fun.

He's also covering that for us. And so that's it. We can get on out of here. Luke, tell the people where they can find you. Thanks for joining and, you know, tell us what's coming up ahead for you this week. Yeah, appreciate you, as always, for having me. We got MK pregame preview tomorrow with Jed, 11 a.m. in the east, or I guess this is a hop on a plane in a couple hours.

Yeah. And then Saturday, I'm doing both watchalongs. I'll do the PFL main card at 2 p.m. And then I'll do the full UFC card at 6 p.m. So it's going to be a long day of streaming on Saturday. You'll find me a main card minute. on morning combat. Man, that is, look at you.

That's putting in the hours. You gotta, you gotta do it, too. You're doing the PFL too. Like, that is putting in the hours. Just the main. Just the main. Oh, well, no one cares about the thing. But a couple of important fights on that main card.

So I'll be watching. I will not be covering it because I'm covering the boxing. So big week ahead. All the same usual stuff in enemy fighting. Luke, thanks for coming on. I will see you in, I don't know what.

what's that 15, 16 hours. And we'll chop it up and it'll be a good time. And thank you all for listening. Love y'all.