MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Henry Cejudo Defy History And Beat Aljamain Sterling At UFC 288?

Episode Date: May 3, 2023

It's another UFC pay-per-view weekend and so you know what that means: the No Bets Barred boys are back to break down all their favorite plays for UFC 288 and the bantamweight title fight between Aljamain Sterling and Henry Cejudo. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew begin the show with a brief recap of UFC Vegas 72, lamenting a dreadful flyweight under loss, before diving into the 14-fight card that is UFC 288. The biggest topic of conversation is the title fight and Henry Cejudo's chances at overcoming a jarring statistical trend, but the boys also get into the five-round co-main event between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, the return of Kron Gracie, and of course, a heavyweight over and a flyweight under. Tune in for Episode 44 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back.

It is another edition of No Betts Barred this time. UFC 288. That's what we got like a storm of pay-per-views through March and early April. We've now had a month off recoup, re-energize, but we are back. It is a UFC pay-per-view week. This time, we're heading to the Garden State. Newark, New Jersey, the sixth borough, as they call it, doesn't get any better than Newark. Jed, how are we feeling my man?

You know, I didn't even think to ask. You're not going to this, are you? I am not. I will be doing the watch party at old Vox Media Studios on Saturday night. Oh man, you did you did no love, no love for Sohudo and Aljo in the main event. You didn't want to make the trip? Complicated topic. Not really like not not really just like yeah, man, you want to go or what, you know,

kind of have a little bit of an obligation. Now with the draft king sponsorship on the watch party. We can make the watch party work without you. I'll fly up to New York. Me and Mike can just do it. It'll be fine. All right. I don't want you to miss opportunities out there, you know.

I'll leave the, I'll leave the graphics up to whoever. Oh, yeah. It'll look real ramshackle. It'll be great. That's all on y'all. Yeah. I've had, actually, as we were starting this podcast,

got a text from another person asking me if I was going. I've gotten numerous, numerous messages asking me if I was going, no, the only reason I'll be going to the Prudential Center anytime soon is to watch my devils continue. to ride through the playoffs, making the Garden State very proud. So I will not be in attendance on Saturday. I'll be doing the watch party instead. My first UFC pay-per-view is coming, though.

It will happen sooner or later. I mean, we should get the watch party at the pay-per-views, too. Just, you know, let's start making some deals. Let's put me in touch with whoever I need to, and I'll start making the contacts happen. It's just that easy. the way the great Vox Media operates. I mean, your wish is their command. It's as simple as an ask to,

let's do the watch party at the Prudential Center. Snap your fingers and there it is. I guess we just missed out on an opportunity to do that here. It's okay. They'll come back. I mean, they'll certainly be in New York in November because they're always in New York in November. So, you know, missed opportunity this time.

But we'll get it going next time. Yeah, I'm also not going to like. lie, UFC paper views are not the cheapest thing in the world to attend. Oh, God, no. They are not. I mean, just to get into the building this weekend, like, if you want to sit in nosebleeds with, like, you're essentially watching the Jumbotron, it's going to cost you about $300. So not the most, you know, frugal thing on earth to do, especially now that we're losing Bryce Mitchell, Moseravloev. I saw that, like, five minutes before we hit record. I saw that.

And I was very upset that I watched tape for it. Really bummed on that. Had a fair size bet on Mr. Evloev. Wanted to get the over one and a half mixed up into a parlay. You and I were just simpatico on that fight then. I was actually my biggest bet on the card. It was Movesar of Love. Oh, okay.

Yeah, it was pretty bummed. I had a Vloev by decision, and I was looking at that over one and a half number of four. That over one and a half was something special. Without the over, I am now, I have an open parlay leg that I need to close. So hopefully you can pitch me another one because I need a third leg for a parlay. I got a couple that I like. Last week, I had a losing week. The Quinlan Waters fight essentially was the swinger in whether or not it was a winning or losing week.

I was dead wrong in that fight. I thought it was going to not go the distance. And I thought Josh Quinlan was going to win. I was wrong on both accounts. Yeah, tough for the double miss, but, you know, I just love that you said it. You've been saying you've got to stop being exposed, and yet we never learn lessons. Yes, never learn lessons because my overexposure is literally what caused me to have a losing week. If I wasn't so exposed on that fight, I would have won.

Just brutal. I won nine cents last week. Let's go. Let's go. Big week, but I feel that I won. more than I lost in general because, look, flywood unders, tough, tough, tough out last week. We knew it could be tough, but both heavyweight overs hit and the chat GPT bet hit. And let me tell you, it was very, you know, it got two thirds of the way there.

Padilla did get a knockout just in the first round instead of the second round. So, yeah, yeah, feeling good. Beautiful call by Chad, GBT. the vice that is Julian Arosa continues to haunt names I mean the line got to like minus 125 I was like God I think I just have to play this played it lost money

I mean just it was over very quickly shout out to Padilla great win by him UFC debutante It looked good UFC debutante's had a nice week last week Marcus McGee Trey Waters Padilla Alex Siva

Ronda Russian Ronda with the knee bar. I mean, that was the last thing I expected. I was not expecting that to happen. Oh, Jamie Lynn Horth. Don't forget Jamie Lund Horth. Wow, yeah. That was a big week for debilings.

Debuting fighters. Did they go perfect 5 and 0? I think they did. 4.0? I can't. But yeah, I mean, 4 or 5 in a, that's a big week. I didn't even notice that. Yeah.

That was UFC Vegas 72. I had no bets on BKFC, did you? No, because I couldn't find lines anywhere. I would have bet chalk the whole way down. So I don't know if I'd have parlayed it up, but they all looked pretty obvious to me. The only one that wasn't was Chad Mendez, Eddie Alvarez. I favored Mendez, but, you know.

Only one, the one, I'm with you, I couldn't really get it, get it down on a book where I could parlay him. I wanted to parlay him. Rothwell and Perry, but I didn't get to do that. It would have won. But alas, that was BKFC. Let's move on. Fun event, though.

It was an incredible fun event. Yeah, I mean, their best event by far. Shout out to them. Hopefully there's a good one in their future because I am very down to watch that. All right, UFC 288, Newark, New Jersey, top 10 most beautiful city in all of America. They say top five most beautiful city in all of the world,

you do the math. Shout out to Newark. I mean, that just tracks with everything I know about Newark. If you've never been, you need to go, especially to the Rock, aka the Prudential Center, great building. That is where they will be.

And that is where the main event amends. I think the only thing I know about Newark comes from the Sopranos. Yeah, like if I'm actually like breaking it down here, Newark is an absolute dump. Like you go to it and you're just like, wow, this city is hideous. Like it is just, it's, it's a gray city. Nonsense.

It sounds lovely. If Shakur Stevenson is listening, I'm sorry. Okay, let's get into it because we have 14 fights, Connor. 14 fights. And I can't wait to get into it. There are some spots that I, uh, that I am certainly a fan of this week. I think I have action on everything except for the opening two five. Wow.

Wow. Take that with a grain of salt by what I am saying. though, and let's get right into it, the Bantamweight Championship of the world. Al Jermaine Sterling against the return of Triple C, almost three years to the day away from the game after retiring, Henry Sehudo makes his return. And right now, Henry Sehudo minus 115, Al Jermaine Sterling minus 105 over under set at four and a half over minus 160 under plus 130. What are you thinking with this fight, man? I mean, it's very similar to what we just saw two months ago with with Jones and gone like you you got a fighter coming back from a long

layoff well what how we feeling all right let's start with the stat it's a i think we've mentioned it a couple of times this year uh because it's a big one it's a very very relevant stat the record for ufc fighters over the age of 35 in welterweight bouts and below welterweight title fights and below so welterweight, lightweight, featherweight, bannam weight, flyweight is two and 28. That is a jarring statistic. Two and 28. Those two wins both belong to the same man, Tyron Woodley. His two title defenses when he hit over the age of 35, that those were the only wins they are getting from this.

So what if you went like? terrifying stat. What if you went like featherweight down or light weight down? I don't have that number in front of me. I'm sure it's, well, it has to be a zero. Right.

That's what I'm saying. Woodley's the only winner. So, but that is, uh, I'm sure that there are, it's probably a little bit lower because the higher up you get, the more you can succeed,

the older you get. So I would suspect that there are more welterweight title challenge. who were hit hit that age of over 35 demi and maya you know guys like that who kind of succeeded whereas that's just not going to be quite the case certainly flyweight very few guys over 35 i've ever fought for the belt of flyweight banam weight it's it is a jarring stat and i yeah i mean the conversation needs to start right there all right well here's where i'll start the conversation as well uh brain's kind of in a pretzel because sehudo took three years away.

It's also very problematic. I certainly don't think it benefits him. Everyone's going to be like, well, you know, another guy just came back from three years away, and he looked pretty good. You're talking about John Jones, one of the greatest ever do it, though Henry Sehudo.

Arguably one of the greatest ever do it. I was going to say, not a bad resume himself. Double champ, Olympic gold medal, dude has been very successful in his career. One thing I will say, just talking about the age, like Algeman Sterling is going to have the benefit of being the younger fighter here. Not by a ton, though.

He's not super young. He's not super young. But dude, the guy is in unbelievable shape. Like, he's always in good shape, but like he is as good as good gets when it comes to shape. He is going to be massive walking in there. And like, we're also talking about he's got a three inch height advantage and a seven inch reach advantage at Bantam weight, which is just ridiculous. Like, he is going to be the way bigger fighter in there on Saturday. And he is going to be the stronger fighter, whether Sohudo packs more power in his punches. Like, Al Jemaine Sterling has been talking about his size and how he's going to use that to his advantage on Saturday.

So, I mean, when you're looking just at the metrics, like the age, the size, the strength, it's all on Sterling's side, the activity, you know, having just fought recently, it's all on Sterling side. I'm sensing a butt coming here from you. Is there a butt coming here from you? But Sehudo is like one of the best to ever do it and he's an absolute beast and like no one ever takes him down and that's sort of how Al Jermaine wins fights and he's been off for three years and I have no idea what he's going to look like. So it's just like I'm like having a

tough time getting a bet in, especially because my dumb ass was on Cyril Gone and I got made to look like a fool just two months ago playing the same game of hasn't buttoned three years, yada yada, this, that and the third, blah, blah, blah, metrics, physical, all that. It's a, it's a tough fight to call. It is. here's where I stand. I disagree that Al Jermaine Sterling is going to be the stronger fighter in there. He's definitely going to be the bigger fighter. He's going to be the longer fighter.

If they lock up into clinch situations, I have zero expectation that Al Jermaine Sterling is going to push in your suit around. Man's an Olympic gold medalist. True. That's just not how the guy. That's just a different breed of dude in there. For me, my sort of breakdown to this fight comes to another piece that you mentioned in there, which is, I have no expectation of Al Jemaine Sterling is going to score takedowns now. He's a very sneaky back taker, even without a takedown. He's able to kind of find his way to backs and transition, so maybe he can pull that off.

I'm not confident that if he takes Suhudo's back, he's going to finish him. I think that he might, he will probably just win that round, and it might even be a very dominant round a la some of the people. or Yan ones, but I don't know that he can do it repeatedly. That is, to me, his best avenue to victory is that. Because on the feet, which I think is largely where this fight will primarily be contested, it's an interesting matchup. Sterling does have that length. I have a lot of issues with the way Sterling approaches fighting as a striker.

He's so uncomfortable striking. That is like the thing I think every time I watch. him strike. It's like he, he is just, he never has acclimated to it. He knows how to do it in principle because he's trained for a long time, but everything's a little hurried, it's a little rushed, it's always single shots, it's never really in huge combinations. And that has gotten him into trouble, certainly got him into trouble against Peoria in their first fight and could have, had Peoria not given him a gift with an illegal knee, have altered Alderman Stirling's career irrevocably. I think he's going to be stuck striking with Suhudo for long pieces of it.

And I think early he can succeed. But Suhudo is really very, very good at in cage adjustments and at realizing I can just kind of force the issue. We saw that against Dominic Cruz, who was trying to do that sort of game early. And then Suhudo was just like, yolo, I got this. Same thing, it's Marlon Marius. I think Suhudo can have success there. I think it's a really competitive fight in most avenues. I can't feel too confident Suhudo because of the layoff. Without the layoff, I'd

probably pick him confidently here. But what I've done instead is this, Connor, I'm taking a prop bet, and I'm not getting a big exposure, I'm just going to put a half unit on it, and it's the Sohudo by Kio. That number is at plus 350, because

Suhudo, three, he's got three knockouts in the row in his last three fights. I don't think he is going to engage in a grappling-based game. And if he does, I think that that probably benefits Sterling. Think Suhudo is going to just try and be really, be quicker than Sterling and get the hands going to work. Maybe get a headbutter two.

He's sneaky loves a headbutt, Connor, and go for that. So I'm taking a flyer shot, a little half-unit play on Sehudo by KO at plus 350. All right. Here's something that I considered in playing this. I don't know why, even though the under is set fairly highly, I feel like there's going to be a finish in this fight. I don't know why. I mean, it likely, odds-wise, there isn't going to be won.

Something that I did consider was playing Henry Suhudo by knockout in rounds three, four, five. That's plus 950 on Fandle, and also playing Aljimson Sterly to win by, KO in rounds three, four, or five. That's like plus 2,800. Very low exposure. I'm talking about like maybe 0.35 on the Suhudo and like 0.15 on the Sterling. But that is something that I did consider. I don't know why.

It's just like a universe thing. I don't think there's going to be submission. I don't think that Al Jermaine Sterling is going to be able to submit to Sehudo and then Sehudo has what one win by submission in his entire career. I just don't see a world where he's submitting Aljo. Definitely don't think Suhudo is submitting Aljo. I don't have any confidence Sterling is going to get a finish late. It's my thing is I think this feels like either Al Jermaine Sterling is going to win a decision

or Henry Sehudo is going to knock him out. And so I even looked at that double action bet on Draft Kings. You can do the Sterling wins by decision or Suhudo gets a knockout. it's not a great price what's it uh i want to pulling it back up to confirm but yeah sterling by submission sehudo by dq is minus 110 and i don't really want to be laying that i don't want to be laying negative numbers on a on that particular bet so yeah i'm like an

exact bet yeah i don't love that i i am going to be parlaying up the over one and a half uh i do think i also have that yeah i think this fight goes the long side i don't have that no well nine of sehuto's twelve have gone over the one and a half 15 of Aljo's 17 these are obviously in the UFC have gone over the one and a half they typically go over the one and a half I would be pretty surprised

that we see a finish in the first seven and a half minute too keep that in mind but I don't I don't know I like you have general trepidation about this fight and when it was originally announced I was all in on Zahudor's going to beat the hell out of him

the more I've thought about it the more I've watched I there are a lot of question marks. And that 2 and 28 number just terrifies me. Terrifies me, dude. Yeah, that is, that is a, I mean, that's a crazy stat. It was welterweight and it was Tyron Woodley. It's like, okay.

I mean, So who does a great athlete like Tyron Woodley is? But that is a tough stat. That's, it's like almost the stat that you should blindly play against. Like, you should just be like throwing something on that. Realistically, I'm going to feel like an idiot. on Sunday if Sterling just wins and I'm like he was minus 105 and the stats say that

he was 100% to win why didn't I just unload the roll Yeah I just uh I might be talking myself into Sterling now I just don't know like I'm like I really am trying to like it just feels like every

Saturday night I'm telling myself the best bet is a winner. The second best bet is no bet at all. Like, it's just like, do I really need to be exposed there? Like, do I need to take action? And it's just like, if I'm having to convince myself, like, if I'm really like talking myself into it,

then I just don't need to bet it. Like, I just need to sit back and enjoy. I mean, that is the absolute correct answer. Unless the bet you're ultimately taking is like plus 400, then you could tell me that I had to talk myself into it. Yes. We're sitting here and I'm talking myself into taking Alderman Sterling at minus 105. Here's what I'm going to, I'm just going to be honest with you.

If Sterling gets to a plus number, I'm going to bet him. And the line moving is tracked towards Sohudo all week. I think that this line movement will go back when they face off and everyone realizes that Sterling is enormous compared to him. But if more people can just bet Suhudo in the next hour and we can get Sterling down to a plus number, I think I'm just going to have to bet him just on principle. Two and 28, God, two and 28. If I was going to bet it, I think I would bet on Algeman Sterling.

All of the, like, indicators of me placing a bet are on Algeman-Sterling side. Like, the age, the size, the activity, the record you just said, 2 and 28. But I really just think I'm best staying away from this fight. I just don't know what's going to happen. It's just, listen, man, I really. losing humbles you losing humbles you i am not looking back on 2022 and being like wow those were the good old days like i was just like i was banging out winners every single week it felt like it was just like god and i miss those days and i'm trying to get back to them by maturing as a better

and i i really think the the smart play for me here is to stay away i respect it um if sterling gets to a plus number i'm taking them that's where i've settled all Plus, just plus 100, you'll take it or like your eye on like plus 120? I need plus 105 because if, I know, plus 100. If it's plus, if I'm getting even money here, I'm taking it. Okay. I think there's a world where that happens as we approach it. I mean, the line movement has consistently headed towards the Hudo.

I think a lot of people dislike Al Jemaine Sterling. I think Zahudo being an Olympic champion, a former double champ. I think you're going to get a fair amount of public money. money on Sohudo as the as the fight approaches. Actually, actually, I forgot that Draft Kings has, they've got point spreads now. They do have point spreads and currently Al Jemaine Sterling his minus five and a half. Damn, that's it. Yeah, that's not a number.

So Hudo plus five and a half minus 225. Minus 225 though, but it's not bad. Yeah. That doesn't feel, that doesn't feel like they want people betting that point spread with the Vig. With the Vig they've put juiced into that number. Yeah. I mean, that's, there's a hoodo plus five and a half. Like, I feel like he, I feel like he might win two rounds.

Yeah, but minus 225? Yeah. I mean, I'm not playing it. Yeah, it's just, uh, okay. I'm just, I've said my piece. I'm going to take Sterling. I've got a little flyer on Sehudo by KO because plus 350 feels like a big number. So what I think is his most likely opportunity to win.

Good fight. We'll see what happens. I mean, that's all we can do is see what happens. And let's move on to the Co-Main. Knock on wood, that nothing happens to prevent this fight from happening. If it does. If it lose this fight, dude, then this is a tough card. Dude, like we're really getting into that tough card territory.

Like, yeah, let's just not even put that out into the air. Let's go to the co-main event, though. Welterweight about five rounds. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux Beauty and Fragrant Sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com. Hit Pies on whatever you're listening.

listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. For Balal, remember the name Muhammad taking on Gilbert Derino Burns. Right now, you can get Gilbert Burns from minus 125. Bilal coming back plus 105 over under set at four and a half, over minus 150, under plus 120. Very similar to the. main event, a super closely lined fight, short notice, Balal is just my kryptonite when it comes to betting, I just always bet against him and he always wins.

Oh, that's tough. Yeah, and I mean, like, I kind of thought for a second, I was like, if you can't beat him, join him. I was like, but then he's going to lose and like it's just going to be like my villain origin story. He's going to join the Landovanadas of the world. Yeah. So what are you thinking here?

You got a solid read on this guy? I, well, I hope I have a solid read. So I do have a bet. And I guess I'll start by saying, I have a full breakdown of this fight that I did independently. And then, you know, break little news, make a spoiler here for whenever you all hear this. I'm going to be on the watch party for this fight. The great Mike Heck reached out to me.

Like, you want to come to the watch party? I said, of course, never going to miss it. an opportunity. And I thought, if I'm going on the watch party, yes, I already have a side of position, a thing that I feel confident. But if I'm going on the watch party, I got to bring the gimmick with me. And frankly, there was no other fight that I could do a chat GPT bet for this week, because I felt pretty good about everything. And there's not a lot of closely line fights. So I threw out all my own stuff, and I just asked ChatGPT. And thank God, Connor, Chat GPT agreed with me.

I didn't, I put in the same inputs as always, nothing different. One, chat GPT knew that this was a five-rounder without me saying it. Wow. The AI's a little creepy. I was going to say, it's a little creepy. I'm waiting on Pens and needles to hear the result. I don't want to go to the whole read because it gives you a full five-round breakdown. But here's what I'll say.

In the fourth round, Mohammed's confidence was sky high. He landed a hard body shot. doubled Burns over, followed it up with a head kick that stunned him. He smelled blood and went for the finish landing of barrage of punches that left Burns, dazed and bloody, but couldn't get it done. And the fifth and final round was all about survival for Burns. He was battered and bruised but refused to give up. Muhammad pressed the action.

Burns showed off his heart and toughness hanging into the final bell. In the end, the judges award the victory to Belaw Muhammad by unanimous decision. I will be betting Belaw Muhammad at plus one. 10, I will also be taking a little half unit shot on Balal by UD at plus 240. And frankly, Connor, totally, this actually totally lined up with my kind of read on this fight. So I think Balaw Mohammed is the more well-rounded fighter. Yes, I do think Gilbert Burns is a better grappler. Bilal is an exceptionally good defensive wrestler, as we've seen.

I think Burns can have a little bit of success early with, he's probably a little bit faster. He's got a little bit more power in the punches, but Bala is super tough. And I'm going to be honest, I did not like what I saw from Gilbert Burns against Horamoss for all. I thought Gilbert Burns was getting looked slower, looked older. He's 36, about to be 37. You just heard the stat about being old. It's bad for you.

It's sporting in these weight classes. I think he's slowing down. And I think Bala is just going to work at a higher pace. He's going to survive any early efforts from Burns and then just kind of, do Belal Muhammad things for the next four and a half minutes or four and a half rounds. All right. So there are quite a few people that I respect their opinions on fights that are on Belaw Muhammad. Quite a few.

A lot. Okay. Do I just remember the name here? Do I just remember the name and ride team below? I will, I'll say this. Because here's the one thing that at least gave me a time. touch of pause because otherwise I'd feel very, very confident. Blah Mohamed has not lost in forever.

He's been finished one time. The one guy who finished him, Vicente Lucke teammate of Gilbert Burns. So maybe they've just got a real good read on this dude. I mean, that was like eight years ago or something stupid. So certainly Balaw's gotten better. But to me,

this feels... A Balala also beat him more recently in what? April of 2022? Yeah. It's very true. But, you know, Gilbert Burns is theoretically better than Viscente Lucke was. Lucke dropping off a little bit.

But in my head, this feels, I feel very confident in this. I felt confident before Chat, GPT, backed me up. Certainly at Underdog Price, I really thought Belal, if Belaw was the favorite and I was laying juice on him, I'd be a little bit more paused, but you're getting him at a dog odds. I think that there's value there.

All right, there's still a book or two out there that's got plus 110. You said, what was the other bet you took by UD, by unanimous decision? Unanimous decision for plus 240, which seemed a bit high, but, you know, I'll take it because, I mean, Draft Kings has Ballal by decision at plus 200, so it's not far off that. It would be a bit odd for him to win a splitie here, but not impossible. All right, well, what I did do, I took the main event and I went with the co-main event, and I definitely did the over one and a half. I mean, if you don't...

I do have the over one and a half on this one. Yeah, if you don't count the Leon Edwards fight, Bilal has gone over one and a half in 15 of his 16 UFC fights, and then Gilbert, nine of his last 11 have gone over the one and a half. Yeah. I feel like they wanted this five rounds for a reason. Man. The thing, I also think the five rounds just favors Bilal heavily.

I've never bet. on Belal Muhammad before. I guess I'm about to. I recommend it, but you gotta take your own turn. If we're having to talk you into it, Connor, then maybe you don't do it. Maybe you stick to your guns. But man, I can't bet Gilbert Burns. I can't bet against

Balal again because if he wins, it's like, I just can't do that. I can't bet on Gilbert Burns. The thing that I go back to chat, GPT says it, you say it, and on quite a few people that I respect are also on Belal. I think I might do it. I think I might do it. We are,

remember the name. Emotional journey. We'll watch it together. Oh, that makes it even better then. I don't make it. We're all watching it together. I can throw a unit down on a long.

All right. I think I'm going to do it. I love it. I love it. Plus, JetGPT 3 and 2 this year. Plus we're in the green. Let's go.

Let's go. Yeah, I think I'll do it. I think I'll do it. A little unit. just one unit. I'm sure I'll learn to regret it no matter how the fights go. But that's that. That's the co-main event. All right. A lot of meat to chew through on those top two. Tough fights to predict, in my opinion. Tough fights to predict. Let's move to the... Very, very tough fights. Let's move to the third fight on the main card. It is a strawweight bout.

Jess Conradge taking on Yan, Jiao Nan. Right now you can have Jaskan for minus 200, Jiaonan coming back at plus 170. Um, I am going to take a shot on the underdog here in and John Ann. Oh my God. This is so fantastic because I, I didn't, I had no idea this would happen. I had one question for you. Um, and it was explain this to me because I do not understand why Jessica and Drodge is only this big of a favor. And the last few times I've said that I've been an idiot.

And so in my head, I said, I don't understand what's going on here. And then my next thought was, last like five times you said that you were just wrong. So I must be missing something because I do not get what Jessica Androge is this small of a favorite over yon. All right.

Well, one thing I'd have to say is I haven't played it yet. I'm going to wait because I think a lot of people are. The number is going to keep moving towards Androge for sure. I think it's going to get bigger and bigger for Jessica Androj. two is there any chance that you underrate yan jonad i don't think so she's not very good like she's fine i think they're not bad she's fine she's fine you play mcindsay darn at like minus 220 against her back in october uh probably i mean see that's more that mackenzie durn is bad all right mackenzie durn actually like i went back and watched the tape like this whole

like she's just like this vicious just like ends anybody once they get to the mat? No, she doesn't do that. That's why if she ever punched people when she took... She had Jan boned if she would have tried to hurt her. She just kept trying to tap her and couldn't do it. Yeah, so I mean, here's the thing. I think Jan Janang got exposed on the ground by Carla Esparza.

I think that's pretty clear. And I think she made improving that a focal point of her game. And I think with the way Andrash fights, I don't... I don't know how much she's going to force the grappling. And if this is a standing affair, Yan Janana is absolutely live. I think she is 1,000% live in this.

I mean, she hung with the striking of Marina Rodriguez. Some even believe that she won that fight. I could see this fight. I think it's going to be incredibly close. That is basically what I'm getting at. I can see this being like Androja's second fight against Rose. Super close, super competitive. You can kind of judge it either way.

And in that instance, I can see he's getting Anjohn A plus 200 by the time this fight rolls around. I think that you can get her a plus 200 by the time the fight rolls around. I will not be joining you. I'm already on, Androge. I, in fact, doubled my bet. I put two units down on her because I got her at minus 175 and was just like, I don't get it. Don't understand.

Jessica and Drodge, here's the list of strawweight people who have beaten Jessica and Drodge. Yanni and J. Chick, ages ago. Wiley Zhang and Rose Nam Yunus kind of did it one time, even though I thought that that fight should have been a draw. And she had a dominant win over Rose. Like, I don't think Jan is in that category. I don't think Jan can match the physicality of Androj. If Adraj can get takedowns, I think that Jan is in a world of trouble. And I do think she can.

And even if she can't, I look at just, I just have watched Jessica and Drogh fight. a bunch and unless you are a hyper physical athletic woman and one of the four best women in the world you're in for a long day man like that's Amanda Limos is damn good and Adroge just treated her like

nothing like Lauren Murphy is damn good and Drodge lit her up like I-Refie is not that good Lauren Murphy's been a top 10 strong flyweight for 10 years. She's a good fighter.

She's a pretty good fighter. Yeah, which is exactly what Janjanah is. Pretty good fighter. I mean, they're obviously different weight classes. They couldn't never match up, but like, I would favor Janjanan over Lauren Murphy. I mean, the way you're talking right now,

you're saying Jessica Androger's a lock. I don't understand why she's minus 175. And again, I prefaced all of this by saying, like the last five times I've said this, I've been wrong, but in my head I just don't see it. I can't connect it. I mean, she also did just get run through by Aaron Blanchfield. Yeah, Aaron Branchfield's a truth.

I mean, Aaron Blanchfield is great, no doubt about it. But, like, she did run through Jessica Androsh. Yeah. Up a weight class, and she's much better fighter than Janjohn. Not. Up a weight class from Janjohn, but like she also fights at Flyweight. No, yeah. I know.

I'm not saying, like, what I'm saying, that is not that instructive of this. I don't know, man. I think there's a world where they strike for 15 minutes and it is much closer than you are thinking it's going to be. You could totally be right. History has proven that I know nothing, but I can't turn my brain off. I mean, I just think that this is done.

I also know nothing. We're all, we're just idiots, just hanging around. Yeah. Talking bets. You know, seeing what losers we can come up with. I mean, that's pretty much it. I've been doing a great job of losers this year. Let me tell you.

Let me tell you. I mean, it's, yeah, I mean, I'm going to wait it out, see what I can get Janjohn Ann at. And yeah, I'm hoping I can get her a plus two. I'm hoping I can get her a plus 200. I mean, what kind of movement are we looking at here? So when I'm not going to lie, dude. I'm not going to lie.

This exact conversation is very reminiscent of the Janjohn and McKenzie Dern conversation we had. Yeah. And I felt good about that bet for two rounds. And then the last two rounds, I didn't feel good when McKinsey Dern stopped. All right now, there's a book where I can get her for plus 185. I think you just hold off because I took her and Josh this morning at minus 175. She is already minus 200 from that same book.

The number is continuing to move. And I believe that the closest gets to fight weak, more money will, there will be more, more squares like me being like, Jessica and Drodge is going to kill her. And they're just going to put her in parlays. Listen, she could kill her, dude. coming up. Playing devil's advocate to my point of, I think this is going to be closer than some people are believing, there is a world where she gets the takedowns and just like Carla Sparses her, just like pounds her out on the ground and like makes it look easy.

There is a world where that happens. Man, now I wish I was joining the watch party for this one, our opposing action. Yeah, yeah, I don't know. That would be fine. I'm glad we're on the same side for Bill Law. I don't want someone to brag to me. You've got to remember that name. Yeah, I don't want someone to brag to me about like taking a fighter that could be like minus 250 by the time the fight goes off.

I mean, would I ever brag about taking the minus fight? Yes, I could see that happening. I could see it happening. If we were on the watch party live and we were going head to head, I could see it happening. Either way. Because I don't ever relish in people's losses. All right. That's true.

That's true. That's actually a good betting habit to hold. It's really important because, man, a lot of people. really don't uphold that. And that's... Oh my God, dude, when I lose, my Twitter mentions, my Instagram DMs, my Instagram comments, that's just like, yes, I am aware that I placed some losing wages this weekend.

Did you know? Thank you for reminding me in the most dickhead way possible. Just like, holy L, crying emoji, crying emoji. Like, you fucking loser. I'm like... What an idiot. I'm just like, yeah. Yep, I know.

And like, dude, when we do the parlay pals, like, just the second the pick loses, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. Just like losers, rip up that ticket. Losers, losers, rip it up. Rip up the ticket. I'm just like, yep. So there it is. So much positivity out in the game.

No, no. The, you want me to be totally honest with you, Jed? I enjoyed betting way more when I did it to myself. Like, I just bet. And when I won, I was just like, let me go ahead and pat myself on the back, enjoy these winnings. When I lost, I was like, well, that sucks. And that was it.

That was the end of it. I didn't have to get on social media, just get lamb-baseded for my losses. I'm just like, yeah, sick. You know, Connie, you know what else sucks? Our next fight. Let's get into it. I don't want to. I'm sad.

It is no longer Movesar of Leve versus Bryce Mitchell. It is now Movostar of Leve versus debuting Diego Lopez. was once on the contender series. No odds for this one yet, but I'm going to assume that Movesar is going to be a monster favorite. At least minus seven would be my guess, if not bigger. If he's a minus 700, I'll throw him in with the two over one and a half.

And call it a day because I did go back and watch some tape on Diego Lopez. Good for you. Yeah, like he's a dude, he's pretty good at grappling. Like, he's a game fighter. I mean, he had a super deep guillotine in on Joe Anderson Brito when they fought on the contender series. Got a good arm bar attempt. Obviously, neither of them were successful. He lost the first two rounds.

It was a technical decision. He got poked in the eye. And in the 10 minutes they fought, he got controlled for like eight of those minutes. Like, I just don't see. He got taken down three times. Brito landed three of four takedowns, and he got controlled for 80% of the fight. I just don't see how Mofsar Evluev is not able to find success here. I mean, like, he props to him for taking this fight.

But like this is, Mofsar Evluv is not the fight you want as a debuting fighter and you lost on the contender series. Like, it's just like, and because the way you lost was because of a wrestling weakness against Joe Anderson Brito. And now you get Russian wrestler Movsar Evluev who has 20 takedowns in his last three fights and is 16 and 0. I just, a lot to ask. This is a lot to ask here with Diego Lopez. If he pulls this off,

it would be unbelievable. I would be like otherworldly impressed if he pulls this off. It would be, honestly, I'm not rooting for it just because I have

a fair amount of stake in the Mubzar of Loya is the next truth particular campaign, but it would be, be very, very cool, because I currently have of Lov ranked very, very highly. I think this, I assume that he's fighting for a belt one of these days. I liked his chances against Bryce Mitchell,

though I will say I was very, very interested in that fight. I had a lot of action on him, but Mitchell's kind of wily grappling, you know, Nick Lentz put of Lov in trouble a couple of times with guillotine, maybe something fun could have happened. Instead we get this. I have not, I saw that this happened genuinely five minutes before we record. So I have no idea on Lopez. Maybe I'll parley of Loewa, depending on the number. And if I get a chance to watch some Lopez tape,

but I'm mostly just sad. The biggest bummer here is like, you can't even, like I really don't, I don't have any, like enticing props. Like, it's not like,

oh, Mozart's going to finish him for sure. Like, he could just ride out a 15-minute decision for sure. I don't, I don't think he has any finishes. Because UFC wins because I was super big on that as part of the parley thing. This was like five.

I love that. Mitchell's been finished once. Evloa of only decisions. It was like, yeah, I'm going big. Oh, man. That was the main event, the co-man. And then Movesar, Bryce over one and a halfs. Loved it.

I loved it. It was one of my favorite bets on the card. Unfortunately, we don't get that. And I don't really know what to do with this. If Movesar is at a playable parlay price, like if he's like minus 1,400, I'm not. touching it because Lopez is game. If he's like minus 650,

absolutely, absolutely parlaying him up. Yeah, I will see. I went back while we were talking and looked at as the biggest of Loyas has been as a favorite in the UFC was his debut against Sungwu Troy,

like around a minus 450. I mean, he was also minus 400 against Dan Ige. But so I think we're at least looking at the minus 700 number form here, maybe bigger. Yeah, I'm going to assume that. But we'll see when it opens. I'm guessing we'll get one later this afternoon. Love One Fights gets canceled.

It's just... Isn't it just the best? It's the best. All right, let's finish out this main card. Featherweight bout. We got another one, the return of Chrome Gracie to Newark, New Jersey. He is taking on Charles Air Jordane. How many Jordane round threes are we going to get this week?

now, Jordane minus 180, Gracie plus 155. Mystical fighter. Under 2.5 minus 190 over plus 155. Similar to the main event, Crohn Gracie having a three and a half year layoff

kind of just makes this fight null and void for me. I just, I don't really have any interest in playing anything. Like, I just don't know what Crone Gracie is going to look like. If I was going to play anything, I think I would probably play

Gracie by submission, just because that is a fairly clear path for him to get a victory. Charles Redaena has like 48% take down defense. Gracie is unbelievable once it hits the mat, but I just have no idea what's going to happen in this fight. So right now I have nothing, probably going to end up with nothing. I think you're smart man. I'm not a smart man, as Forrest Gump once famously said.

I looked at this and was like, I'm not afraid of a three-year layoff because Charles Jordan does not have great takedown defense. Tell me about it. Eight of his 10 UFC opponents have landed at least one takedown on Jordan, including every one of his past six opponents. Cron Gracie just needs one. It's like you said.

He's a phenomenal takedown artist, or not takedown artist. A phenomenal grapple if he gets you down, it's going to be a problem. And Jordan has some difficulty there. Yes, the layoff is. concerning, but I am choosing to back ice cream cron. I'm not taking them by submission just because, well, one, I don't have that available to me at the moment, but it looks like by submission is plus going to come out of like

plus 200, whereas you can just get cron at plus 150, some books even up to plus 165. So you're not getting, I'll just take a little less of a bump in that just to have the full array of Cron Gracie victory pass available to me. I know this flies in the face of third round Jordan. Is there any way that he wins by not submission? Are all five of his wins by submission?

I have to look that up. I assume that that's true, but maybe he's got a decision in there. I'm not going to lie. He's got a shirt for this, for this fight. It's pretty sick. Pretty sick. I'm not going to lie. I mean, I could buy it.

Let me see it. Let me look this up. ice cream cron baby i mean ice cream cron is a very very good name i was going to say it's a pretty sick nickname especially because uh the nickname ice cream cron was coined due to his calm demeanor when fighting i'm kind of getting cool cool like an ice look yeah i'm kind of getting tucked into some cron by sub here right uh look i join join join the team if feeling like it. But yeah, I just kind of started, I took a lot of bets that maybe I wouldn't have, but I was just kind of feeling good, feeling, feeling like I want to get some action down.

And I think Cron Gracie has an underdog feels okay. Cron Gracie by submission. It needs to, yeah, it needs to become available at more books before I can play it. But yeah, I actually don't mind that. I scream Cron. Or he goes out there and, you know, kind of gets made to look silly. I mean, I guess that could happen, but that's fine if it does. I won't be that upset if I lose this bet just because I don't have a major amount of confidence in it.

I'm just playing it. You know? What is, what is Gracie submission round one? Wow. It was like plus 240 or something. Yeah, it's only plus 400. That's, that's, uh, plus 400. That's still better than I thought.

It's not a big number, mind you, but it is better than I thought. That might be the best play. I might wait for that to come out at more books. I actually don't hate that. Plus 400 is okay. I mean, what are all his wins by? First round submission. He does have one second round submission.

He's got a couple second round submissions. I mean, one in Risen. That was a 10-minute first round. Yeah, I mean, I think I can talk myself into this. Ice Cream Crunch. Shout out. All right, let's keep it moving on what should. should be on the main card, banger of a lightweight bout. It may now be.

I think it's going to be. I'm not confident that they're going to stick of Lov. I think that it would be reasonable to bump Vloev down to the prelim main to maybe try and give him that boost and elevate Drew Dober. Yeah, I mean, make the 16 and O Russian in what is likely going to be a dominant performance. I like that because this is going to be a firecracker. I mean, the problem, though, is if you put Dober for Volus, the prelim main event. You know you're getting it. You know you're getting fireworks. Absolutely. I don't have anything here, but like this, I mean, this is just a fight that I'm just

going to thoroughly enjoy because it feels like every single time Matt Frivola fights, we're like, is Matt Frivola going to wrestle? And every single time he does not. And I just don't imagine he is going to wrestle here, whether he's in the featured prelim, whether he's on the main card. I think he's going to come in here and he's going to bang. Drew Dober. Legendary. Legendary granite chin. I mean, that chin could stop a 18 wheeler if it had to. I mean, it's just, it's a thing of the, that was hand sculpted by the fighting gods. It really is something. And I think they're just going to stand, swang, bang. And that's how this one's going to go.

I couldn't agree more. First, have you taken the time before I just want to get us off topic immediately? Have you taken the time to look at Matt Fravolos' tapology photo? If you haven't, dear listeners, if you haven't either, pull her up and just take a look because what a hero this man is. Oh, Fravola? Yeah. Pravola is the man.

Forvola's tapology photo is incredible. All time. It's all time, dude. I mean, the coat, the fur. It's also just like in his house The Indiana Jones hat with the bomber jacket It is unbelievable Like it's just in his house also

Yeah in his house shirtless I think that's fight shorts These weird Like this is just an unbelievable photo I'm a huge fan of it Yeah it's it's fantastic I mean that's got that out That's one of the biggest reasons

I'm not betting on Drew Dover Is because Favola is the Met Hey and I I can appreciate that. I am betting on Drew Dober. I've put him in a parlay. I considered Dober by COO just because his last six wins have all come by knockout. Two of Frivolos' three career losses have come by knockout.

But the buy-KO number is not that different. You're only getting a few points for the gap for Dover by-KO. So I'm just going to, again, stick to it. agree. I think this is largely going to be contested on the feet. I do think Favola will shoot a couple of takedowns, but historically he hasn't ever gotten that much control time from takedowns. He's not that successful wrestler. Drew Dober, not a great defensive wrestler, but I think he's good enough to mostly stop Favola from succeeding too much that way. And on the feet, I like that, I like his chin, I like his boxing combinations a lot better. I'm just a huge fan of who Drew Dober

has become as a fighter of late. I mean, you'll look at what he did to Bobby Green, who have a ton of respect for, Raphael Alves, Terrence McKinney, and that unbelievable, all three minutes of chaos. And, you know, I just really like where he's at. I think he's ascending.

I think this is going to be a really, really fun fight, but I like Dredober, so I'm use him as a parley piece. Yeah, I mean, like if I'm really breaking down the fight, it feels like they're just going to stand, swang, bang, Dober's chin is going to hold up and I don't know if Frivolos is. I mean, that's the actual simple read I have

is they're going to swang in bag. Frivola cracks Dober's chin? I mean, it would be surprising, but not shocking. You know, like it, not something I expect, but

Drew Dober takes shots. Eventually that you can't do that forever, but I'm not sure if Fafola's going to be the guy. Yeah. I mean, it's a tough ass, but always a fan of both these guys. This is a, may the best man win fight. Yeah.

Like, really like both of these guys, cool with either of them winning. Mm-hmm. And it is, again, guaranteed to be fireworks. Oh, yeah. I think so, too. I think it's, I think it is going to be a fantastic fight. Any chance it goes to a decision, do you think? I mean, if Frivola wrestles some, then yeah.

If he can score some takedowns, maybe take up, some time of this fight on the ground. Limit just if it's, I don't think they're going to spend 15 minutes chucking hands at each other. But if Fervolo does get any wrestling going, then maybe we can make it to decision. But it'll be a fun decision. It won't be a boring one. For sure.

All right. Let's keep it rolling. On to the next fight on the prelims. It's a light heavyweight bout. Devin Clark taking on Kennedy in Zichukwu. And right now you can have Kennedy for. for minus 190, Devin Clark coming back, plus 160 over under, set at two and a half. Pretty much even odds on that.

This is a fight. I don't have anything on, but we just saw the importance of height and reach advantage. If you use them well in a fight in that Josh Quinlan and Trey Waters fight, I mean, he beat him to a pulp just by staying at range. And Kennedy is going to have a five-inch height advantage, eight-inch reach advantage. I think even if Devin Clark gets them down, Kennedy's going to be able to give back up. He also has an 80% take down defense to begin with.

I don't have anything, but like I'm kind of tempted on Kennedy inside the distance. I mean, five of his seven in the UFC are by knockout. His last four by knockout. Devin Clark really has no finishing upside. One of his eight wins in the UFC or by finish. And then

on the flip side of that, man, six of his seven losses he has been finished in. I mean, look at you just speak in my language. I mean, I saw the Off clap. You said you were attempted. The bet I have on this fight is Kennedy inside the distance at plus one 30.

So frankly, all the reasons you said. I have very little to add. I mean, Clark's going to try and wrestle, but I think Kennedy is, one, just enormous. I'm drinking the Kool-Aid from Kennedy in Zuchu. The way he has looked the last couple of times out against Ian Kutalaba, who's got takedowns on him, Carl Roverson. I think he is finally starting to match his physical traits to his ability, and that that is a very dangerous thing,

and Devin Clark's a fine fighter. But Devin Clark, man, really, really enjoys losing by finish. So six of his seven losses, he's been finished in him. I think that that's what's going to happen here. So I don't really love Kennedy at a minus 190 price, just straight. that seems a bit high, but the inside the distance, getting it at plus 130, felt like a better value. So that's the play.

All right. I might add that. I might add that myself. I'm, you know, it's looking like I'm going to take a peep at Cron, at Ballol, and at Kennedy to maybe get it done there. So, uh,

you know, a couple bets added throughout this no-bets barred podcast. Let's keep it rolling to a welterway about chaos Williams taking on Rolando, butoya. Right now you can have chaos. for minus 305. Bedoya coming back at plus 255 over under set at one and a half, pretty much minus one tens each way on that one.

So Bedoya is 14 and 1, but like going back and watching his regional tape, he's bad. I mean, he gets hit, dude. He gets hit. So much. He gets hit, man, and he got wobbled quite a few times on the regional scene.

And, uh, you know who doesn't wobble people? Chaos Williams. He puts you to sleep, lights out. He has, as they say, fight ending power. This is who you get in your debut? A guy that gets hit a decent amount and you get your debut against an experienced Chaos Williams. I just firmly believe that this is a matter of time before Badoia gets caught in this one.

I've got Williams by K.O. minus 135. and I have Williams in a parlay that bleeds over to next week, Cass Williams and my guy, Jelton Omeda. Oh my God. We've got the same read. When I looked at this fight on paper, I was like, okay, 14 and 1, big underdog,

maybe something to cook here. And then just briefly pulled up his topology and was like, okay, Bedoya didn't beat a bunch of total cans, like some decent records on the guys that Padoya fought. and then I pulled up the tape and I was like, oh, oh, never mind, totally seeing where this price tag is coming from at this point because, uh, one, Chaos Williams is going to, uh, dominate the, the visual bout. If this bout was won on the scale, let me tell you, Chaos Williams. Guy looks good coming off the bus.

Looks good coming off the bus. And unless Rolando Badoia has improved. dramatically over the past year, which I mean, I guess he could. If he hadn't been hitting the gym, then I don't like his chances of winning that particular contest. And I don't like his chance to win the fight. He gets hit way too much. His cardio also questionable in part because he gets hit a lot, but you see him start to flag

down as the fights carry on. The fact that he continues to find wins, credit to him. But I'm with you, man. I just think Chaos Williams is going to light him up. And let me also add in one other piece of trivia that I found out while I was researching this. Connor, Chaos Williams has never, never lost to someone shorter than six feet tall. The man hates short kings. I thought it was Rolando Badoia.

Rolando Badoia? He's not six feet tall, Connor. He's 5.11. Wow. Five of Chaos Williams, five of the, I think, seven, five of seven sub-six foot opponents that Chaos Williams has fought, finished him in the first

round. Wow. He he'd unlike the short kings. Tannot. Tannot. So I think Rolanda Badois is in trouble. I have him as a parley piece. I'm waiting for a Chaos Williams by first round K.O. prop

when that comes out, I'll see what that looks like, but probably going to jump on that for Fonzie's too. All right. We are in total alignment there. Let's keep it rolling. Straw weight balance. Oh my God. Chaos Williams by first drone, K.O. I'm seeing

plus 215. Not a good value. I mean, you are calling the exact exact on that one and you're only getting a plus $2.15. That's crazy. Cheez. Boating for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes.

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Vierna plus 120. What do you think, Jed? Tell me. So, I've made a lot of bad choices on this card, not individually, but holistically, because looking at my card, I'm playing so many props this week, bud, and there's just no way I'm going to succeed.

I'm taking Marina Rodriguez by decision because you should, one, just never, if you're going to bet Marina Rodriguez, is just better by decision. The by decision number is plus 140. She's minus 140 right now straight up. Six or five of her six wins in the UFC have come by decision. Verna Jandrova has never been finished.

I don't feel massively confident here because Rodriguez looked so, so, so bad in her last fight. It was jarring how unprepared she looked for Mandelemish. I don't think Vernor Jandrova is as good, an athlete, as dangerous. of a striker or frankly as dangerous of a submission threat, even though she is very good on the ground. I think Rodriguez is just a little bit better on the feet. Can throw in more

combination. A little crisper. It's got the length. I think she can use all of that and just sort of outpoint Vernage and Jerobo, but I would not take Marina Rodriguez at straight play. I think the by decision value

is good enough to take a gamble on. I took Marina Rodriguez by straight play. I took her when she was minus 125. I pulled a jet. I was like, man, this is a surprising line to me. I mean, I'm with you. She looked terrible against Amanda Lemoche.

I am going to expect that she is going to bounce back in this situation. Maybe it's because Verna depends on her wrestling and Marina has been taken down. Seven straight fights. Her opponent has landed at least one takedown. But also in those fights, she's four two and one. It's not like she's just getting dominated on the. the ground. And when this thing is standing, I heavily favor Marina Rodriguez in this fight. I mean, going back and watching the tape, Vyerna Gangeroba, the aforementioned McKenzie

Dern, Vierna Jandrova got outstruck by McKinsey Dern in route to a loss. I mean, I just, the line surprised me. I just really think that Marina Rodriguez is going to win this fight. And I would assume the line moved the way that it did because a lot of people are on Virna. but I mean, Vyrna had as good of a first round as you can against Amanda Heba's got a knockdown, got a takedown, landed 80 strikes, three minutes of control time, and then just got walloped the last two rounds en route to a loss. We know that Marina has the certified five-round cardio. We've seen her go five rounds twice, winning both fights. And yeah, I think even if Vernet gets a take down, I don't think it's the end of the fight for for Marina. I don't think she's going to get sub. She fought off McKenzie during submission attempts throughout the 25 minutes.

And when it's striking, I think she's going to put it on, Virna. Yeah, I would feel a lot more confident, but for the Limosch fight, it just, when I went back and rewatched it, because originally I was very confident. And when I went back and rewatched, I was just like, I don't, she just looked so bad for the whole fight. She did. I don't know if, I don't know if something was wrong with her physically, but it was just jarring, um, based on everything in my head, she should win.

But if she comes out low, looking that flat, it wouldn't shock me if Vierna was able to, you know, force a clench and then hit a spinning trip takedown a la Lemos, and then we're just in a world of danger. Oh, no, bro. She comes out looking like she did against Lemos. She's going to get submitted or she's just going to get controlled for 15 minutes. Yeah. So let's hope she doesn't do that then.

Let's hope she doesn't do that. I think she is, I think she's going to be okay. I also am taking the over one and a half in this for, I have the Muhammad Burns over one and a half. I have the Hadriga's Genji Robo over one and a half. And I was going to have the Evlojev Mitchell over one and a half for a little nonviolence parlay. But now I've just got the two of them. So what can you do? Let's move on to a heavyweight bout Parker Porter taking on Braxton.

Smith. Right now you can have Parker Porter for minus 170. Brackson Smith coming back at plus 145. Let's just take a little journey real quick here, Jed. Let's review Braxton Smith's career history. Let's head over to the topology page for Braxton Smith because it's just phenomenal, five and one. Back in 2014, he didn't get paid by the hour. Back in 2014, he makes his professional MMA debut against none other than UFC heavyweight legend Chase Sherman gets finished in the first round. Takes eight years and three months off, reinvents himself, finds the wheel again of Braxton Smith at the young age of 32 years old.

And then he fights five times over the last 10 months leading up to his UFC debut on a pay-per-view card against Parker Porter. During that time, he fights O&O Cody Beck, Jacori Savage on Peak Fighting 21. remember that name Jacori Savage because it will come up later. He finished Jacori Savon in 49 seconds. Edison Lopez currently finds himself at 11 and 8, knocked him out in two minutes. Cameron Chisholm Brungard currently finds himself at 3 and 5, knocked him out in a minute 40.

That was for the vacant heavyweight championship at peak fighting, which is an illustrious promotion. And then to defend his belt, Jacori Salis. fought his way back to another shot at Braxton Smith by knocking out Kyler Fairchild to get his second shot at Braxton Smith, where he got knocked out again inside the first 60 seconds. So the reigning, defending peak fighting heavyweight champion now takes on Parker Porter in his UFC debut. You are not kidding. Does not get paid by the hour. That is for we're damn sure because I went back and watched his fights. They go quick, man.

They combine for like less than five minutes. He, dude, he, he's not great. Like, he's not, like, if you want to talk about who is the better mixed martial artist in this fight, it is Parker Porter without a doubt. He is the better mixed martial artist. Now, the thing is, this is heavyweight. And Braxton Smith can put your lights out, that is for sure. And he will throw caution to the win.

No clue. this dude looks like off his back. I have no idea. I went back and watched all of his fights because like you said, it took me about five minutes. I mean, this is just a meme fight waiting to happen. I really think it is. Could Parker Porter get knocked out? Absolutely he could. I mean, we just saw it happen three months ago. But what I think is going to happen is that they're going to swing. They're going to throw Parker Porter is going to go for a takedown. And then I think he finishes Braxton Smith on the ground from there. What I am on is the under one and a half.

I know you're going to be on the over. Of course I'm not on the under one and a half. I am on the under one and a half, though. Look, I understand everything you said. And when I looked at this, I said, man, it would appear, at least in principle, that Braxton Smith is an enemy of the heavyweight over state. But over one and a half, it's plus 135.

I'm getting a plus number. Heavyweight overs are eight and five this year, Connor. We're up two and a half units this year of heavyweight overs. We're going to keep running this train because this isn't about Braxton Smith. You're right. This man wins or loses based on his one loss in under two minutes. That's what he does. But this is about Parker Porter.

Because Parker Porter, that man, that man is a man who loves heavyweight overs. And when it's in his power, he fights for them. and I say that because all three of his wins in the UFC have come by decision. If you go back and look at his regional wins, you have to go back to, I want to make sure I have this all the way correct. You got to go back to 2011 for a regional win of his to have been under the one and a half number. Plenty of finishes in Bellator Reality Fighting Championship, but they came in the second and third rounds.

this man loves over one and a half. And he's not fighting Jailton Almeida. He's not fighting Justin Taffa. He's not going to get knocked out in the first round. He's going to heavyweight all over this man. And we're going to make this fight's going to last seven minutes and 50 seconds. We are just going to clear the bar, but heavyweight over is all day, baby. I love it.

I love it. I actually don't love it. But I'm just saying that. I really, Brexton Smith's a wild man. I can't wait for this. He is very much a wild man. I mean, he's not great, dude.

I am a huge fan of his career story, though. I mean, dude. Chase Sherman, don't want to do this. This is not for me. Well, 10 years later, maybe it is. And I'll fight five times in a year. 10 months, not even a year, dude, 10 months. All right.

Well, it's time to get back after it. Let's do it. I love it. I hope that there's a good reason. It's not like a sad reason that he took eight years off, you know? Yeah, I agree. I agree. All right, let's keep it rolling.

Four more fights to get into here. Middle way bout, Icaram Alaskarov taking on Phil Haas. Right now, you can have Iqram for minus 210. Haas coming back at plus 180. I don't have anything here. I think Icrum is probably going to win. But I don't know. I don't have a ton of interest at minus 210.

Philhaz isn't terrible. Let me tell you what you could have interest in. Tell me. Look, Philhaz isn't terrible. You know, a juco, a standout jukeau wrestler then moved to Iowa State, never been taken down his UFC career. But I have a policy, Connor, and that policy is very simple. Always bet on Combat Sambo World Champions because the list of Combat Sambo World Champions in MMA It's a good list.

A bunch of dudes who have not lost a lot and done a whole lot of winning. And Icarov is among those. He twice beat Yaroslav Amosov in the Combat Sambo World Championships to give you Yaroslav Amasov arguably the greatest well-to-weight on planet Earth right now. Certainly one of the top five best well-to-waits. This dude can fight. And you've seen his MMA career very, very successful. the lone blemish.

It's a little guy named Hamzaa Chimayev. So no shame in losing that one. What I've done is I'm backing the Combat Sambor world champion and I'm backing him inside the distance because I agree the straight number, it's a little pricey. It's minus 2.10 feels a little a touch high. Inside the distance is plus 110. 10 of Alex Gerov's 13 career wins are by finish.

Haas, all four of his career losses has been stopped. most likely it would be a submission. Oscar Love's a Camara, but maybe he's got a few knockout, ground, and pound victories, and I can't feel all the way confidence or just taking the inside the distance at plus 110,

give me the Combat Sandbo World Champion. Very good, but not great, Phil Haas. All right, nice. Best of luck with that. Love the reasoning. Shout out the Combat World Sambo. And yeah, best of luck. I'll be cheering for you because I have no action. I know you got action on this next one.

know. That's what I wanted to talk to you about. Oh, wow. This is, that, that is a very sad and somber. That's what I wanted to talk to you about. It's men's flyweight fight, man. And it's, uh, Zalgas Zuma Gulov, not the only man making his return from retirement in this card,

taking on Raphael Isstavam. Right now, Istavans minus 180, Zumagulov plus 155, over under, set at two and a half. over minus 190, under plus 155. What do we think here?

I mean, we got burned last week on one going into it. We were fully expecting to get burned on. We knew that there was a high possibility. We knew. And while Cody Durdon had the back for a decent amount of that fight, it was really never even close to getting finished. I didn't watch a second of that fight, so I will take your word on it.

I was at a wedding. I was not watching the flyway fight. It was not close. You know, I think we still take it one. We are, it's a rare opportunity under two and a half at plus 155. We aren't seeing a lot of plus numbers for flyweight unders anymore. I mean, we have plus 185 last week. I know, but we're the past is for cowards, Connor.

You live in the past. I don't know. That's this weekend. I will also say, Connor, and this is it, I'm going to be very clear. I am choosing a stat because it makes me feel better, not that it's a good one. Jerry picking a stat?

Yes. Zalgazuma Gulov's average fight time in the UFC is 11 minutes. Now, some of you might say that sounds good. I mean, that's under. Well, he's got a lot of decisions. Four of six of the UFC have gone to the cards. It just so happens that the two finishes were in the first round, so that brings that fight time down.

I understand all the concerns, but I'm staying the course. I'm riding this one out. I'm trusting flyweight unders, and hopefully they will not steer me wrong this weekend. Not just four of six and the UFC have gone to a decision, but the five, so many more if you get after.

Prior to entering the promotion also went to a decision. His fight night's career was. Nine of his last 11 have gone to a decision. Sure, you could say seven of Istavam's last. 10 have gone under the two and a half, but the argument there is that was on the regional seat and the contender series and now he's getting a very tough

Zalga Zuma Gula. Yeah, I think, look, if you're flowering under better, you just got to be, you're cheering for Estabom in this one. Because he's the one he's going to deliver the finish. You want a narrative? I love a narrative. Zuma Gulov, back from retirement, so

angry at the judges, he can't believe these split decisions he's been getting. I'm not leaving it in the judges. hands this time. If I die, I die. I'm Zalga Sumagulov. A finish is coming. I hope he brings that sort of energy. Yeah, I don't know if he's going to because he retired in November and now he's unretired. And he talked about age at these lower weight classes not being great. He's 34 at flyweight, one in five in the UFC. His one win was against Jerome Rivera, who went 0 and 4 in the promotion. and now he's getting fed Raphael Istavam, who is a beast, 26 years old, age advantage.

He's also got a 4-inch height and 4-inch reach advantage at flyweight. He's just relentless with day downs. I mean, I say all that to say that I took Rafael Istavam minus 160. I think he does get it done here. I think he's got a lot of advantages in this fight. I don't have any play on this other than the under. I'm feeling better about it. Look, Estevom, just, it's going to be a great debut.

And that's what we're here for. Just a great debut, getting in on the flywood under train. And then we've got another guy who's here for the unders. Let's go. Like, do I just put like $10 on it just to say that I have it? I think you got to. You are the founder of Flywood Under Nation. I know, but last week, last week, we got burnt.

Like, we got burned. And we knew we were going to get burnt. The whole week I was like, that's going to. to a decision. And like, I will say when I was like, yep, a loser, like I tweeted it out to acknowledge it, people were like, you know, we got to keep the rules in mind. Like, Mahayev can't really ride that. Charles Johnson, you just know what you're getting into.

Cut from the same cloth, Zagas Zumagulov. Yeah, yeah. I was about to be like, is he? Because like, maybe it's just Charles Johnson, but, you know, I mean, Monell Cape did finish him. Amiar Abazi. Yeah, look. I understand the trepidation.

I am going to go ahead and stick. I'm going to keep riding it out, but I understand where you're coming from here. All right. That's the flyweight fight. I'll see what I do with that one. Let's keep it rolling. Middleweight bout.

Joseph Holmes taking on Claudio-Robero. Right now you can have Ribeiro for minus 175. Holmes coming back plus 150. I don't have anything here. Parlay piece. So a fight doesn't go to a decision. Doesn't sound too bad. Both of them have 100%

finish rate. Now they've ever won a decision. But in terms of aside, I've got nothing. Yeah, no side on this one for me either. I was kind of looking at the doesn't go to a decision thing just because it's like, like you said, these guys are finishers or get finished. I don't know if I, I already have a lot of exposure on this card. I'm not sure I need to add more on a fight that I'm not super invested in.

That's kind of wrong that. but maybe maybe I'll do that because maybe I'll add the fight doesn't go to a decision to the third leg of my parley in lieu of the Evloi of Mitchell over one and a half I'm still kind of looking for something there

that I like but I'm with you on the general vibes here all right brother let's get to the last fight of the night a men's bansomweight bout Daniel Santos taking on Johnny Munoz Jr. right now you can have Santos for minus 190 Munoz plus 160. Daniel Santos at a shoot box.

I learned my lesson on betting against him last time out against John Castaneda. Fights chaotic as hell, he's going to get hit, but he seems to be all right with that. He's tough as hell. Keeps going through it. He is going to keep the pressure on you the entire time. And a lot of the times it works out for him and he just melts his opponent. I think that's what's going to happen here with Johnny Munoz. I think he might have some success early on.

I don't think he's going to be able to get the grappling going, which I think is what he's going to try to do here when the pressures of Santos is hitting. I think Santos gets it done, and I think he likes to get done inside the distance. I have done zero research on this particular fight. It's going to be a great one. I mean, the shoot box guys, they bring the action.

Yeah, I love everything you said. You've sold me. I believe that's what's going to happen too. but I have no bet. All right. That's it. UFC 288. I got one question before we wrap.

Please. One very quick question for you. Are you taking anything on Demetrius Johnson? Yeah. You're going to take a DJ bet? For sure. Okay. So I thought we should throw it out there.

When I lose, I don't care. I will be betting DJ, especially if this is his last fight. It's only minus like 150. I don't think it's going to be last fight. but he's only minus 150. That's... It's not that crazy. I mean, he lost the first fight and, like, he was...

I mean, it was competitive. Very competitive. But, I mean, that finish was... I just thought the name value would get him a little higher. Especially after the way that he knocked him out. And just one of the best knockouts of the year last year. So minus 150, a price I'm willing to pay. But I'm very excited for that fight as well.

One championship, doing big things. Shout of the... them uh roberto soldage that could be a parlorite piece well i didn't actually look at is there a price out for that there's no price out i love roberto sold i mean there were huge soldage fan if you're a soldage fan they are uh they're setting up setting them up here pretty big to get this one done he is fighting 14 and 7 sebastian katastam out of uh out of sweden um Yeah, he's two and three in his last five. Yeah, they're trying to get, I mean, he's a big acquisition for him.

He's coming in off that very unfortunate groin, no contest fight stoppage from a low blow. I'm happy to see him finally get here and hopefully get something real cooking. But yeah, he's also probably going to be an enormous price, but I can back that. Yeah. It's a pretty good little one card. I mean, it's their first card in the States. I would hope they were bringing in a little bit. They're doing some stuff.

Sage North Cod, can't trust them. RDR taking on Tyra Toulow in a grappling contest should be fun as hell. Yeah, for sure. I'll be tuned in. Rod Tang. It's going to be stuff. Yeah, Rod Tang. Stamp air tax.

Boom. Got so much. That's it. We've cooked. We've cooked enough. That is it. That is UFC 288. A little bit of one sprinkled on the end there.

And that'll do it. Next week, biggest card of the year, because Jailton Almeida returns to the Octagon in a main event. In a top 10 matchup with Jayzino Rosenstruck, the path to Jailton champ status continues next week. I mean, it's just John's not going to hang around forever. Jailton may just be the guy, maybe the next guy if they keep doing this for him. I mean, I love the matchup for him. You know what I don't love, Connor? I don't love my chances on a heavyweight over next week.

I'm not going to lie to you, dude. I really think, I think Jailton is going to win in the first round. Is that crazy? No, I don't believe that's crazy at all. I'm just hoping that they somehow set the over at half, at half around. I mean, dude, he played with his food last time, out against Shamele. It was so helpful for me.

I was a huge fan. That was great for you. It was frustrating for me to watch. I don't think he does that this time. Main event on ABC, I think Jelton's coming out to put on a show here. I agree. And even if he doesn't,

like if somehow he doesn't win, it's because Jarzino lands a major strike. Yeah, yeah. So there's just no way that this, I am praying for the over under to be a half of a round. That would be hysterical. That's not going to happen. It's not. You'd probably get pretty big plus money on the under one and a half.

But that's for next week. That's next week's card. Day card, ABC, love it. Talk to you then. Love y'all. Network.