MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Ian Machado Garry Upset Islam Makhachev At UFC 330?

Episode Date: August 12, 2026

The top pound-for-pound fighter in the world is looking to make history this weekend. On Saturday, Islam Makhachev defends his welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry in the main event of UFC 330, and there's more than just a title defense on the line. Should he win, Makhachev will set the record for most consecutive wins in UFC history, and insert himself into the Greatest of All Time conversation. But will he? On the latest episode of No Bets Barred, host Jed Meshew is joined by The Action Network's Billy Ward to discuss just that topic. Jed and Billy also break down the rest of the fights on this week's card, including the co-main event title fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson, all the potential upsets on the prelims, the latest step in The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 161 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Billy Ward: @Psychoward586 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. It is up, y'all. We are back for another edition of No Betts Bar. I'm your host, Jedd, Michoud of EmoryFightFighton.com. You probably already know that if you were here, but it's your first time. Thanks for joining. And I'd like to say we have a good one. We have an okay one for this weekend as we are talking all things UFC 330.

And while that card is not the best, the top of the card is very strong. and there are a couple of, you know, prelim things that I'm interested in. But when I say that we will be talking about, when we introduce my host, my co-host for this week, you know him, you love him, from the Action Network. It's been a minute since we've had him on, the great Billy Ward. Billy, how you doing, buddy? How you been?

Pretty good. It's been a pretty good summer betting-wise. I'm real excited for the contender series to start. Do I have a slight bone to pick with you, though, Jed. You should have had me on last week, both UFC billies, in action. I believe we're like the only three grown men in our 30s who go by Billy is Billy Ray Goff, Billy Quarantio, and I. And we could have done the anti-billy parlay being named Billy as a terrible base for MMA, as I can attest to. So, you know, a lot of blown opportunities there, but it's

okay. I'll jump on on a pay-per-view if I have to instead of the excellent meta-apex card last week. We didn't even do a show for that card last week. I was going, like, I had every intention of doing a show, and I was talking with some people internally. And I just, straight up didn't even have a bet that I wanted to make on the card. So it was like, I could still do a car, like a show and just talk about the fights, but the fights were terrible, and I just wasn't going to do it. Also, Billy Boyd, uh, famed actor in Lord of the Rings, who plays, uh, he plays Pippin and Lord of the Rings.

So there's another, you have four grown billies going on for you. Only three with pro-MMA records to the best of my knowledge, but, you know, I don't know, Billy Boyd has been fighting in his spare time, but he did kill a lot of orcs. So shout out, saving the realm, Marian Pippen. Let's dive into 3.30 here, Billy, because like I said, actually, I guess a quick state of the union, Billy, I don't know if you know this, but we've got some big news here. One, I'm losing money again. I had battled my way back to my yearly total of being basically dead even.

I think I was up like $10. And then catastrophe. I lost every bet that I made. As I mentioned, I did not have a card last week. I had no bets, but every bet I made at Belgrade I missed on. Just a total over. So I am down four units now. We battle to get back.

But Billy, much more importantly, the climb. We got a real run going. You know, we have really put it together, 10 steps success. made on the climb. We've taken our bankroll from 50 bucks up to $450 and some change. And so, Billy, I do want to give an update here. There will be at least one climb bet this week. We'll talk about that as we go through the show.

But as I did in previous iterations, I've got a checkpoint. Once we get to 10, a real run is going. We're having a checkpoint. And we're going to pull some money out and then rebuild. And so it actually works out very easily because I am currently. about where I'm actually a little over monetarily the 12-step mark because not most of my bets have actually been under the minus 500 sort of limit. So at step 10 should be roughly $303.

Like that's kind of the ballpark you're looking in is right around that $300 mark. 450. So what I've decided I'm going to do, you know, I could say, well, I'm just at step 12 and move on, but that's not how we want to play this game. We're trying to string together 30 bets, Bill. So I'm going to bank $150 out of this pile, drop down to a $305, you know, start point. That keeps me right on pace at my 10, but I've also now banked a few future climbs coming in, should this fail. And we climb on.

So, Bill, I didn't want you to know, as we talk about the climb this week, the stakes are high. We're at 10. We haven't been in double digits in a long time. So every subsequent climb bet, much, much higher stakes going on here. So just wanted you to be aware of that, Billy. Yeah, I know it's been a struggle since you had some real good runs. Also famously losing two climbs in one night was just beautiful. Yeah, that was impressive.

Great content. And based on the numbers, you went down to $50 climb units, right? Rather than understandably, no judge. Once I had burned over a grand in failed climb bets, I was like, I can't keep doing this. Because when I first started the adventure, I was making, like, I was getting to checkpoints enough that it was, like, it was costing me money overall, but it wasn't just like a sieve of cash. And then the start of this year, I was just like, I just lit $800 on fire in the matter

of like a month. I was like, I can't keep doing this. So I knocked it down to a $50 entry fee. No, totally fair. Yeah, it was a good. I like the checkpoint system, especially using the overage. So this way you're solving for still trying to hit 30 bets, not necessarily get to a set dollar amount. I was doing the cheater way when I had a pretty good run where if I was a couple steps out, I'm like, I get to skip step 11 because I've made enough money.

But maybe I'll rejoin you on adventure. But it just feels like it. Yeah, the rules or whatever you want to make your own climb. As I was looking at it, I was like, man, I'm way ahead of schedule. What if I just bank all the excess? And then it's not like I'm cheating because I've just been like, it's great. And now I've made, you know, I've given myself a little buffer for future climbs should this not work out.

But I think we all know this is going to be the one that works out. And in a couple of months, I will be $11,000 richer, all from a $50 bet in a dream. I'm very excited. Billy, let's talk about 330 because they're, are many long odds and so many climb opportunities this week. And in fact, I think many people might think the main event would be a climb opportunity. I will tell you right now, it's not going to be for me. I am choosing to pass on a climb bet here.

But the main event of 330s is a Macheteen Macheteen-Machado Gary. Makachev making the first defensive as welterweight title, minus 350 thereabouts as a betting favorite with Gary coming in at plus 275. I mean, what else is there to say to set up this fight here, Billy? I mean, we all know Machachev is currently on a 16-fight winning streak, tied for the longest in UFC history. He will set a new record should he beat Gary, the number one pound-for-pound fighter in the sport. I have been saying that he would be the first legitimate two-division champion in the history of the sport. I stand by this take.

Others do not agree, but there are 11 two-division champions in UFC history at this point in time. And if you look at all of them, most of them never defended a belt. And so I think you can put an asterisk on winning that. Like, sure, George St. Pierre is technically a two-division champion. Was he ever really the best welterweight in the world? No, he spiked a one-off against a hand-picked opponent and then retired again. So by my estimation, there's only, like, there is a good argument and a fair argument that Amanda Nunes is a legitimate two-division champion.

She defended both belts, but also women's featherweight is a nonsense fake division. And so I'm just not going to give that the same level of credence as I give to a guy like Gizamachchev who defends his title against a real opponent, not Henry Suhudo, who defends his title against whatever version of dominant crews we got at that stage. So huge, huge fight on the line here from Makachev. Gary, obviously, the opportunity to become the Walter H. champion to unseat the top pound-for-bound fighter in the world. How are you feeling big picture heading into this main event, Billy?

Yeah, I like your point about legitimate, you know, title defenses and all that. I think you could make a case for Poetan, who I believe didn't defend the 205 title. Never defended the middleweight belt. But he didn't he lose both and win them back at different points. So like he had multiple title wins. He didn't, he didn't win back the middleweight belt. He won it and lost it. Yeah, I guess he moved up.

At light heavyweight, it's fine, but the middleweight is the run that's actually, he's probably, I think he's the only one of them of the two division champion whose less impressive work was in the way class he started it. Like, his 205 runs great. You can't argue with it. Yeah, but even at middleweight, like, he beat clearly the best middleweight and like arguably one of the best middle weights ever. That's different than, you know, coming up and beating Michael Bisping real quick or coming out of retirement because Randy Couture or saw Tim Sylvia as a weak champion. There's a case for poet dad is all I'm saying. There's a case, but like there's also a very easy other case. Outside of just he never defended the belt, which he never successfully did,

he got a very soft hand. They manufactured his title fight in general against a guy he'd beaten several times already in another discipline. And so like, yes, he won the middleweight belt. That's the thing about all of these. Like even if Machchever loses, he's, He's a legitimate welterweight champion, but was he ever the best welterweight on Earth? I am not at all certain about that if he doesn't beat him, Machado Gary. And the same with Poetan.

I don't know that he was the best middleweight on Earth. He just happened to win the belt. No, that's fair. And, you know, to bring things back on the rails here, I'm not all that confident that Islam Makachev is actually going to win this fight. I believe it's a terrible matchup for him. There's a couple things I noticed looking into it. first of all, Makhachev, unlike Habib, gets most of his takedowns from, like, clinch work and throws in close quarters.

There's a few problems with that. Ian Gary is very tall and long and manages range pretty well. The other problem is Ian Gary came up doing judo before he was known as a striker, which makes it dangerous to get in there. If we did a straight wrestling match, I'm sure Mokachev could take him down. But when he's getting jabbed and teep kicked and kind of Sean Strickland at range and then has to deal with the judo in close, I don't think it's going to be that easy for him. that size is obviously a factor like we saw it with Iliotoporio coming up and yes he has a Walterweight title win already but you know was Jack Della Madelina ever the best

Walterweight in the world probably not I don't know that that really tells us all that much the other factor in this going to come into play in both title fights is just some deeply unpopular or in this case a deeply unpopular challenger and the other one a deeply popular champion but that's just going to push the lines beyond what it should be if people were actually thinking fights, right? Like, it's really easy to make fun of Ian Gary right now between the, you know, PETA campaign. Everyone sure is doing it. And the, you know, women should run the world and all that. And I think he knows what he's doing. I think at this point, he's leaning into the complete opposite gimmick of every other UFC fighter, which is smart and a great idea. But that's just going to make

the line, I think, even more long for him as we get to the week and casual fans all want to bet on Mokachev. So I will be betting Ian Gary. I might bet his point spread. You know, we haven't seen Islam go all that hard to try to finish everyone, especially when he's not fighting blown up featherweights or whatever. So that's an option, but I also have some just straight money line on Ian Gary. At the risk of, you know, I've called 10 of the last two big title fight upsets, but you don't only have to get a couple of them right to make that work out long term. So maybe the point spread, depending on the price, definitely some money line on Gary. But let's wait until Friday night, Saturday, as we get the best price possible. See, I'm actually not confident that waiting is going to get you that much better of a price.

I think there is a world where waiting hurts your price on Gary because I'm with you right now. Everybody hates him, Machado Gary. He's an obvious villain. And, you know, this is, I meant I was on submission radio the other day and I talked like, this is really the first real fight. Maybe you can make an argument for the Jack fight. But I still don't even think that's true. where Makachev is unequivocally the people's champion, the favorite,

his whole career, despite being the best fighter in the world for most of his title career, he has not been the guy for fans because he started his, you know, Charles Olivares beloved. And that's who he won the belt from. Then he fought Volcanovsky twice, beloved. Nobody wanted him to beat Volcanovsky, despite him doing it twice. Then he fought Dustin Porre. Okay, well, no one's going to root for you against Dustin Freakimporier.

Moycano happened so fast, like he probably would have been the favorite or was, but that happened over a night. Like, that was a 24-hour short-noticed fight, so he didn't really get the, like, here's a fight week where he's really the guy that people love and support him behind. And then with Jack, sure, like, in that matchup, maybe people were more interested in him winning. But really, the narrative was just the fan base had glommed on to Ilya and Islam Makachev is running away and he's afraid and it was all this bullshit nonsense. Now Tupori is no

longer in the picture. This is his first opportunity to be like for everybody to stop making excuses or talking about what could have been or what else there is or the other people to talk about to just be like, oh yeah, actually he's been the best fighter in the world for like five years and we haven't appreciated that. And now I think it might fall apart because and right now to the point I was originally trying to make, like, all of that's happening for this line to be where it is. But I think once they, like, do a face off, people would be like, oh, shit. This is quite small compared to him, because he is quite small compared to Gary. And so I think that line might get a little tighter than it is now.

We'll see. Maybe. It is, it's hard for me to be confident that lines moving much either way. but I am with you on the big picture of, I think I Amatatatay is probably a little undervalued here. If, you know, gun to my head, I'm going to pick Islam to win this fight based on some big structural things of like, my main concern is that the only thing Ian's bringing to the table is he's big, right?

Like that's the big hurdle to clear. Ian is a very good fighter and very well-rounded, but he is not, it is very very very, very rare that you have a fight where one guy is both probably the better round winner in general, like Islamakachev is very good at dictating fights how he wants to go and is also the more dynamic finisher of the two. Gary is just not really that dynamic in that regard. He has been, but we haven't seen it. And so it's a real fine line for him to walk. I don't think either man is going to run away with this. But in my head, it makes sense to me that like,

Ian will have success and win portions of the fight, Islam will also, but Islam will probably win more of them. That being said, at this price, do I want to, like, I think this is going to be three rounds to two either way, probably. And so I think there's a lot of clear value on Ian Machado Gary here, you know, as he's close to a three-to-one underdog. So I'm going to end up betting Gary probably just like a half unit just because it's a value bet. Not I, you know, I still probably will pick Mokachev to win. But the one I am the most interested in what I'd like your opinion on here, Billy, is I think I just simply don't see a world where this doesn't go 25. And the fight goes to decision is only minus 145. And that feels in my head, my vibes are pretty like, this is definitely.

definitely going to the cards. And so that's a bet I already punched in. I feel pretty good about, but give me your thoughts on that one, Billy. I think that's a great bet with the caveat that if, like, Gary plus five and a half points is a better price than that, he almost certainly covers that if it does go to a decision. So I would rather take,

I don't mind that bet. I think if you're going to make that, it would depend on how much bigger of a price. Because, like, there is a world where, you know, Islam just can get takedowns. And then it's not fun or interesting. but Gary can't get him off, and then he loses four rounds on all three judges' scorecards, and that's tough. Yeah, it just depends on what they line that point spread at.

Like, in a vacuum, I think that's a great bet. I wouldn't have, I will personally wait for looking at that until I see what, you know, derivatives can be better. Also, have to point out, and I don't think you're wrong in this, but you described Gary as a villain, and he is a villain for saying things like women should be allowed to vote, and maybe we don't need to kill so many animals, which is, you know, in any other world would not make you a villain. But now we're like, ah, get him out of here. Chale's son and posted a video. We're recording this on Tuesday.

Chale's video was last night. I was listening to it because he was like, the premise, it's a Chale video, so he rambles. And it's honestly like, I would love to sit down with Chale and be like, buddy, you need a producer to tell you how to, because like you're getting to the like big picture or whatever. Like your, your takes are good or interesting or whatever. but you get in such a circuitous fashion it makes watching your videos terrible. But the colonel, like, at the very end was like, the whole premise was the Imichato Gary is one of the best heels in the sport today for the reasons you've mentioned. And then at the end, he said the same thing.

He was like, but really when you think about it, you know, he hasn't done anything wrong. You know, like he didn't say this, but like, this is a sport where people are arrested constantly. He's never been arrested. He's never really screwed up. like what are the bad things he's done because he respects women you're i'm supposed to hate him because he respects women it's like no because he loves his wife and supports her i'm supposed to hate him it's like no so it is hysterically funny the dynamic and it's really terrible for me billy because i hate i'm machado gary like i just straight up did like i do not like him but i don't

like him. My issues are not that he believes women are people or whatever. Like, he is a grating, annoying, like, I would not care to spend time with him. And, but the many other people hate him for reasons that I consider far less valid. And so it's like, normally I'd be rooting for Gary to win here because it would upset the worst people in the sport. And now I can't. I'm just like, I kind of, I guess, hope Islam wins. But the big thing to me about this whole, fight, Billy, before we move on. I just want to get this take out. It sounds really stupid and really simple.

It's really hard to win 17 fights in a row, Billy. It's like really, really difficult to do that. Nobody's ever done it before. And so in general, I think rooting against something that has never happened before, you know, betting against

an outlier of all outliers is historically like a pretty positive way to go about betting. So I will be betting you Machado Gary straight up. Again, I think I'm just going to throw a half unit on it, nothing too major, since it's just a value play. And I'm going to decision on this as well. I also, I looked at, though I've decided, I think I'm going to pass on it unless you tell me different.

The over two and a half is around minus 3, 25 minus 350. Considered that for a climb bet because I don't think either man's getting a finish here. but I think I'm just going to keep my climb pretty tight since we're moving up the mountain here, Billy. Yeah, I think there's better climb options. And also, I've adopted a personal all money lines climb stance. Pretty much every climb where I have strayed from a money line because I didn't like any is that's where it's ended. So I will never suggest to you to do that. You've done much better on those than I have by a wide margin.

I'm not doing it. Most of this current iteration is money lines. Actually, a few PFL money lines, which has been really, really, really, helpful, but like most of it, I think there's only been like one or two over unders on it. And it was just, well, one of them was a prop bet of Gable, Steven, and the under. So like, you know, that wasn't straight up a money line. And then San Tag and Batista over one and a half was just such a guarantee. It was like, these two dudes are not, there's no friggin' chance this thing's going.

So, but most of the rest of them, I think, have been straight. up action. And the one I've got circled for this week that I'm certainly doing is also a straight-up money line. Let's move to the co-mate event, Billy. A fight that has differing opinions on how good it is. I personally think that it's a good fight. It's a title fight.

And I'm pretty interested to watch it, but I know it feels like I'm in the minority for a couple of reasons here. But it is the women's strawweight title fight McKinsey turn makes the first defense of her belt against Gillian Robertson, Dern, a minus 2.30 betting favorite Robertson plus 185. Dern coming in on a three-fight win streak, picked up a U.D. win over Werner-Genjiroba to win the belt, the vacant title at 321 in October. Robertson, meanwhile, five-fight win streak has put them together and got a unanimous decision

win over Amanda Lemos in March to get herself a title fight. really straight up i think these odds are maybe a probably pretty close to right maybe a little a little bit of value in my opinion on derm but how are you seeing this one breakdown yeah i'm calling for another and new here it's it's hilarious to me well i'll start i'll start with addressing why people might not be excited there's there's sexism obviously as we discussed in the past fight which is part of it sexism is a huge piece of it the other pieces jangui lee exists as a person

Right. It still doesn't feel like we're seeing the best 115 pound fighters in the world contest the belt, which is part of the problem. I don't know if Zhang's ever going to come back to 115 if she can still make it, which might be. Yeah, I don't know what she's doing is the thing because, like, I thought that we do Jang Dern. And once this got booked, I was like, maybe this just is the real belt and Zhang's not coming back. So we'll see about that. But either way, until she formally announces she's staying at 125, like people are going to have their questions, which is fine, like, as we should. hilarious that the challenger is on a five-fight winning streak, most recently over Amanda Lamosh, and the champion only had to win two fights in a row to get to a title fight.

Following getting beaten by Amanda Lamosh was her last loss. So that's a little funny. I'm not doing that as part of my handicapping. That's just MMA math, but it does stand out. I just think Robertson is just so much more violent and active, especially when it gets to the ground, that Dern will almost need to catch a submission somewhere in there to have a chance in the grappling exchanges where Robertson will win minutes by actually hitting her, which Dern isn't great at once she grapples.

Dern seems to draw a very firm line between we're striking and we're grappling now, where Robertson came up as a mixed martial artist. She wasn't doing jiu-jitsu her whole life. She mixes those things much better. And in a fair world, which we don't always see with judges, I think, you know, that extended damage, more of that aggression from Robertson, will help sway some judges her way. And then if you're going to bet on Dern, I think you almost have to take submission.

Her striking has gotten better, but it's been inconsistent. You kind of never know which version of McKenzie Dern striking we're going to get. She didn't really blow Bernad Janda Roba out of the water striking, so I don't see her doing that to Gillian Robertson either. Long-time listeners of any of my content will know that I never gave up on McKinsey Dern. Her winning the belt at 321. Me and she and Al Shadi had a separate text where we were just sending each other memes of we used to pray for days like these.

We never gave up that Dern was was going to do it. I have tried to quit McKinsey Dern so many times because she's bad at fighting in many respects. And I can't because every time she loses almost every fight where she lost, there was a piece of it where I was like,

just do that all the time. Like the Yajonam finds, like if you just got mount and beat the shit out of her the whole fight, then we wouldn't be talking about this instead of you doing that like once. and then forgetting that you could do that. This is not a logical bet,

though I actually do logically think that Dern is going to win this fight anyway. I do think she's the superior striker. Both women are quite bad at Takedown Defense. I mean, Dern is like quite possibly the worst wrestler to ever win a UFC title. Like her wrestling is just an atrocity to watch, offensively and defensively. The defensively, it feels like there's a piece of her being so bad defensively is that she is just happy to go to the ground and then play from there. Offensively, it is remarkable how bad.

If she had like one takedown that was good, she probably would have won the belt or fought for it much sooner in her career. But Robertson, I was surprised as I went and watched and just look at the numbers. She's actually statistically quite poor. And you watch her, like actually, yeah, she's not. She also has a little bit of like, as long as we're grappling, I'm cool. and if so if this ends up being a grappling thing yeah you're right robertson will punch more in grappling than durn will but i do think durn's just going to end up getting the dominant positions and the control positions are much more than robertson and on the feet i've always said this about mackenzie durn

her striking is ugly it's not even necessarily effective but she's willing she is a very willing striker. For a brief period, she had like a decent jab and that comes and goes. Sometimes it's there. It's a little Justin Gatheist of like, sometimes I jab. And when I do, I beat Ilya up. And then sometimes I don't. But she has always been like really willing to chuck them in a way that Robertson is not. And so I think that on the feet she can win. And if they're grappling, maybe I'll be wrong, but I'm going to pick McKinsey Dern to win grappling exchanges against anyone in the world. So, but more importantly, McKinsey Dern is, you know, she's one of my family members. You know, I have the Michouda Foster family, and McKinsey Dern is one of the founding members of it.

And so I will be supporting her at a minus 230 bet, just straight up because you got to support your people. I say all the time, Billy, don't listen to this show if you want to make money, because nobody makes money in gambling. Las Vegas would not be the city it is if people made money gambling. That's not how this works. But gambling is supposed to be fun, and I will have fun betting on McKinsey Dern. Yeah, I don't disagree with any of your technical analysis here, and it makes sense that Dern is favored. But all the things you're saying, like, she might do those things that make her good.

She might jab. I will bet into some mights if there's a plus in front of your number. I'm not laying juice on might, right? So when we're getting almost two to one on Jillian Robertson, to your point about the Yanjanon fight, I looked at all you were talking. Over nine minutes of control time for McKenzie Dern. Didn't punch her once.

Didn't punch her once. Eight attempted ground strikes in nine. So less than one per minute. Like every so often, she just decides to throw. She had like a high mount for like three minutes and just kept trying to feed arms. I was like, just hit her. If you just hit her, this fight would be over.

And you, as a. hypothetical listener might say, but yeah, that was a long time ago. How did she do against, let's say, Lupi Godinez, who she took down a couple times and controlled for three minutes on the ground, literally zero ground strikes even attempted. She didn't even, so. If she learned how to punch people on the ground, be curtains with this way class. But we see it with these jujitsu people, right? We're like, once they get into jujitsu mode, they are playing jujitsu. They forget that they're in an MMA fight. And say what we will about Jillian Robertson's overall skill set. She's not going to forget to punch anybody at any point.

Like, she wakes up punching people. So it depends on how the judges treat that, which could make this another good point spread option, but I think the point spread is going to be juiced. So I'm going two to one on my Canadian almost countrywoman since I'm basically honorary Canadian here in Michigan. You, Yankees. Oh, Canada. Look, I just want, if McKinsey Dern comes out and somebody has taught her how to throw a 12 to

six elbow from Mount, it's a wrap. She's going to get in Mount, and then she could just kill some people if she just threw 12 to 6 elbows. She didn't even have to punch. Just throw some of those. It would be fine. Let's move to the rest of the card. And for the listeners at home, we're about 30 minutes in. And that was the plan.

We were going to talk a lot about the good fights. And then the rest of this card is a fight card. It exists. There are some things that I'm interested in or some particular fighters I have an affinity for. But I'm pretty. confident saying that if any of the remaining fights fell off this card, almost nobody would care. There are one or two highlights that I would be most interested in as opposed to the rest, but this is a very weak. This is a boxing card. There is a big main event that is significant

and important. There is a co-main event that is kind of important, but people probably don't care that much about, you know, like a belt is on the line, even if it's one of the lesser belts. And then nothing else is happening on this. But we've got some big odds. and some opportunities to have some fun. So let's dive into him, Billy. Fight? I think I have the bout order here, but it's actually not the same in a couple of locations.

I'm going with the one that I've seen the most, and I think is most likely to happen. The feature bout being Charles Johnson versus Jose Ochoa in a flyweight contest, Johnson, plus 300, Ochoa. Minus 425, big number. Johnson, two and three in his last five. He got submitted by Osu Amabayev in June. So quick turnaround, you got Sulaw stretched by Almibayev.

It was sick, one of the best subs of the year. Ochoa, two and two in the UFC, picked up a UD win over Clayton Carpenter his last timeout. Billy, this just seems like the odds are way too long to me. Am I crazy? No, that was my exact thoughts. The only way people look really good against Charles Johnson historically is by grappling, which isn't so much Ochoa's game. Not his game.

And if Ochoa were an undefeated prospect, I'd be very confident that Charles Johnson was going to knock him out. Unfortunately, because that's just the rules in the flyway. It is. Unfortunately, Ochoa has lost a couple. Notably, each man in this fight have alternated wins and losses over their last five. Johnson coming off a loss, Ochoa coming off a win. He's due, Jed.

This is the time. He is due. I'm not super confident. Right. Ochoa should win. Right, like he's younger, more talented, has all that going for him. He's ascending. Johnson's on a quick turnaround.

Yeah. He should be the favorite. I'm not denying you'd be the favorite. But a 4 to 1, that's a big number. Yeah, and plus 3.30 on Johnson, I'll probably take a sprinkle at. Another one where I also think the point spread prop is in play here. It doesn't seem like Johnson is especially likely to get finished. So can he steal a round in there?

You'd think. Yeah, I think I'm not going to end up. I'm debating, taking, like you said, a sprinkle on Johnson because his number is so big. Ochoa should win, right? Like, he obviously should win, but his best win is Cody Durden. And, you know, shout out to North Georgia's Cody Durden, you know, like, we respect, we respect the, not the Atlanta suburbs, Cody Durden here. But, like, that's your best win?

Like, that's not, you know, like, MMA math. I know it's MNMMA math, but like, look at old Lonnie Kavanaugh. You know? Like that's, he lost to Lonnie Kavanaugh. Obviously, it is what it is when it comes to Charles Johnson and Lonnie Kavanaugh. So it's, it just feels like a huge price. The quick turnaround, the fact that Johnson is a little more shopworn. Should be the favorite.

We shouldn't be this big a favorite. I might throw a sprinkle on it. Maybe just like $20 on Charles Johnson just to see. But it seems like a huge price tag for me. Another big price tag, not the biggest on the card, but one of the biggest on the card. A midway contest is Mansour Abdul Malik takes on Dustin Stoltsviz. Abdul Malik minus 650, Stoltzvus plus 425. Malik coming in off the knockout loss to Usri Belgari in March.

Stoltzvus, he's on a two-fight losing streak, got decisioned by Kelvin Gastilum in September. Billy, I don't have much to say on this fight. I liked Monsor Abdul Malik as a prospect. I still think that he can be an okay prospect, right? Like, we don't need to throw the baby out with the bathwater. But the loss to Belgari is a little tough. He is 28, so he's not like old, but there's not a ton of time for him to climb up these suddenly hot middleweight rankings. But they are giving him a soft hand here.

The odds reflect what should happen. This is a setup fight, in my opinion. I think they are setting up Stoltsvitz and Abdulmalik's going to knock him down. I have got Monsor Abdul Malik by knockout at plus 100. Sorry, froze there for a second. You're good. All right, sorry, the unmuting froze there. Yeah, I totally agree with you.

Not sure if you're considering this for a climb. It's gotten a little bit wide, but you can still get... It's still get... It would have been. It's too big. I'm seeing minus 530, and then if you're into prediction markets just inside a minus 500, but yeah, that's fine. I'm not downgrading Abdul Malik for losing to Belguer.

Because I think Belguer is very good. So that is how I viewed that one. And Dustin Solstwoods is a fighter in the UFC. So he's got that going for him. He is a fighter in the UFC. He is one of the fighters in the UFC. I will say 28 middleweight years is like effectively 25 for your high weight or whatever. So I'm not worried about the age.

He's not totally cooked. But once you start getting into the late 20s and you're not, like really even in you're fighting dust and stultzance is the world and like you got to get moving a little quicker than this um plus like he hasn't looked like he's developed that much from when he came in off contender series he's got a lot of physical tools obviously um but yeah and no can't um my book has him at 650 as he's too big i could maybe like parlay him up but at that point it's just not worth it we'll we'll move on we don't have to rush this climb got to be sure footed this far up the mountain.

But here is the climb, Billy. Let's talk about it. It's pretty straightforward. Lightweight contest. Edson Barbosa takes on Esteban Riebovich. Rebovich minus 525. Barbosa plus 350 Barbosa. 40 years old or about to be 40?

I don't actually let's look. Is he 40 or is he about to be 40? He is 40. He turned 40 in January. On a three-fight losing street, got knocked out by Jalen Turner in December. Rebovich coming off the submission loss to Matush Gamrot in April at 327. I don't think Reivich is going to fight for a title,

but he's never been knocked out, and he can swang them things, and Edson Barbosa should probably retire at this point. So really, this is the one locked-in climb step of the week. Just feels very straightforward to me. Riebevich is going to put the old dog out to pasture. Yeah, I figured this would be your climb. It is the smartest climb.

I will say, I guess I'm a little bit surprised, though. I believe Barbosa has said he, is retiring. And you once told me that you, and this is hilarious, you never bet against retiring fighters because they got nothing to lose and they're going to go out there, which is I, look, I hadn't heard Barbosa is retiring. I hope that that's true. It's just a funny bit from you because it's so contrary to everyone else.

It's like, you never bet on the retiring fighters. They always lose. There's no tomorrow for this man. He's going to leave it all out there. I hope your Darren Elkins bet last week brought you some joy based on the logic of not met against a retired fighter. But yeah, I'm with you. This is the smart climb.

I'm just giving you a hard time about the retirement stance. It's just the straightest one. Like, it's so easy. It's obvious of what we're happening here. You know, especially because like Barbosa's way to win, Riebevich's never been knocked out. So maybe you could do it, but it just seems very formulaic. So I'm sad this fight is happening,

but I guess I will be a bad person and profit from it monetarily, even though I will watch a great fighter and Edson, Barbosa get sent into the land of Winding Ghosts and hopefully into retirement and on his way. Billy, let's move on to the prelims here. And I really like this fight that we're going to talk about next. Or I'm interested in a couple of these, and this is one of them, in a welterweight contest between Chitty and Jokwani, Chitty Bang Bang in Jokwani versus Jowal Aalvarez. Alvarez minus 250 favorite in Jokwani plus 195.

Chitty coming in on two-fight losing street lost a decision to Carlos Liao Miranda in February. Alvarez, since moving up to Welterweight, one-in-one, got submitted by Yaroslav Amosov at 328 in May. Put a pin in that because he's coming in off an arm triangle loss to Amosov. We've got another guy on this card. If you want to parlay them up, the guys who got subbed by Amosov, you could have a little fun parlay going there.

But a long-time listeners of the program will know where I'm going to. Billy, but let's turn to you first. What's your view on this matchup? Yeah, I'm kicking myself for not grabbing Alvarez at like minus 220, minus 230 where he opened, because I'm saying as high as minus 280 as we record now. You can get better prices than that. Think Alvarez should control this pretty easily. He did come in on, I want to say, like, 10 or 12 days notice, something like that.

Fairly short notice is a replacement against Cheeady, which is the one thing that makes me not want to lay what's now pushing minus 300 odds. So. Get your tickets now for the dog stars. It's no surprise how fast civilization can disappear. Go! A therapist. Kill or be killed.

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And Guy Pearce. Arm up. The Dog Stars, directed by Ridley Scott. In theaters, August 28th. Get tickets now. Yeah, that's a tricky one. for me, I'll probably have a lot of Alvarez and DFS, assuming the price is reasonable based on his earlier money line, but not going to be a huge bet for me just because the short notice

nature and the big price is a lot to overcome both of. Yeah, J.D. Alvarez coming in on around two weeks notice replacing Jeff Neal, who was removed from the event, which I was sad about because I had every intention of doing a Jeff Neal Magni Parlay, and that was taken from me. It was taken, and that's very sad. Instead, I'm going to be parlaying Joel Alvarez up with another guy. There are two fighters on this card who are, they're not necessarily members of the family, of the Jedmishu Foster family, though. Both have at times been, but they've been my guys.

Joel Alvarez has been my guy for ages and ages. He was, for the longest time, he was the guy I used in arguments of why is lightweight the best weight class, and people are like, banimous weight's better. I'm like, Joel Alvarez is like probably not even a top 25 dude and he can rocks. So don't bring me your bandway bullshit. Joel Alvarez is the man. I distinctly remember, I think it was even on air and it wasn't. Maybe it was off air and it was back when E. Casey Leiden was still with M.Mayfine.com.

Great website. And I had been preaching the gospel of Joel Alvarez, not as like a future champion because I've never said that, but just like, this is a dude who's incredibly fun he's fought you know 30 times he's gone like one decision in his career and i've been preaching about him forever and it was uh it was after drachar close i think maybe it was ellis brunner it was one of the two and he kacy luyden we pop on to do our post-fight show and case he's like i get it now jed i find like i understand like you've you've been telling me that this guy rules and i haven't yeah he's just fun as shit it's like exactly man And I love him.

He is violence personified. Chitty in Jokwani has the best nickname on this card, and I will respect him for that. But I do think he's dropping off. Alvarez at Welterweight, maybe a little less dynamic than he was a lightweight, where he's just enormous. But I think he's going to have too much offense to bear here. And so I'm parlaying him up with another one of my guys on this card, Billy. And let's talk about that guy right now as we move to the lightweight. division as Jalen Turner takes on Kaui Fernandez turn a minus 175 betting favorite

Fernandez plus 140. Billy very quickly from my end, people will know huge Jail and Turner supporter. I had to let him go. If you love something, let it go. I had to do that after the Bahamondez fight where it looked like he's just, he's done. He kind of was. He's back. Whatever.

Coming in off the win over Edson-Borne Barthamore. Robosa, don't take too much stock in that. But again, just a super offensive guy who maybe doesn't have the best defense in the world, but really fun to watch. I've parlayed him and Joel Alvarez as two of my guys. And that pays out at plus 120. But, yeah, I think he's going to bring too much offense to bear on Cali Fernandez, who's on a good win streak right now, three in a row, though maybe not against the best names in the world.

Yeah, I continue to be amused by Jalen Turner's retirement because he had like less of a gap. It was a two-month retirement or something insane. But like the gap between fights when he retired was less than like many other periods between fights in his career, I believe including this one. I'd have to do the math on like the exact days because it's close.

But like he takes nine months off between every fight. We just arbitrarily called one of them a retirement. I actually like Cowie Fernandez in this matchup. I don't like Jalen Turner's stubborn decision to stay at 155. He's massive. We should just pre-Waltowate. Right. He should go fight Joel L. Averas at Walterweight on the next event.

God, I'd be sick. No matter who wins either of these fights. So there's a good on to the next one. I'm going to claim my ought no point now. But with all that said, I don't love the durability for these guys who cut like 700 pounds every fight week as they get older. He's 31 now, same age as Callie Fernandez. The big thing, though, is Jalen Turner does not check calf kicks, has really long, skinny

legs, and Cowie Fernandez throws a ton of leg kicks, which is just a bad combo. His winner catcher. Harry Hardwick wasn't, right. K.O. by CafKitt. But could, you know, he get caught by Turner on the way in before he gets to any of that, giving up so much reach? Absolutely. I just think stylistically, you know, kicking to the legs you can do from farther away than

trying to throw body punches or whatever. That's a good combination. and I don't trust Turner's durability as he continues to stay at lightweight. So plus money on Cowie, I'll have some version of that might just get crazy and take his knockout prop, though. I'm not 100% sure how I'm going to play that yet. It's going to be very sad for you when both of my big, strong lightweight boys, because that's really what it is.

They're big, they're big, offensively potent, defensively questionable lightweights. And Joel finally was like, I'm going to well to wait. Jalen needs to make the same determination. but yeah, I'm going to have fun with these. I'm not going to have fun watching this next one, Billy. It's a middleweight contest. And when I said middleweight, I mean middleweight. It is going to be middleweighty through and through as Dante Johnson takes on Eric Maconico.

Johnson, minus 230 betting favorite Maconico plus 185. Johnson coming off contender series, 2 and O in the UFC, split decision win over Cody Brundage in March. McConico, two and two in the promotion, picked up a UD over Hudd Adolfo Vieira in April. The less we talk about this fight, the better because I think of all the fights on this card, this is going to be the one that's the worst to watch, in my opinion. I think Dante Johnson is just going to score a bunch of takedowns and edge out a very awful fight

that's similar to the Brundage one. But I will not be betting on it. No, thank you. What are your thoughts, Billy? I'm the only reason I'm not super confident in Johnson is because Eric McConniko somehow beat Hidal O'Overe. I'm not confident Johnson either. I want to be clear. Right, right. I believe that was a somewhat

I'd have to look it up on MMA decisions. Just looking at the stats that, it seems like Eric McConago did not win that fight or at best. It could have been a draw. Interesting that we got two guys who needed split decisions to beat Cody Brundit to square and off. This is just the anti-Cody anti-Code sweepstakes or whatever. And the anti-Cody parlays have worked out

recently, by the way, if anyone's tailed those, they always put at least two Codys together on a card. And you can usually bet against both of them pretty successfully. Yeah, I want to be confident in Dante Johnson, but Maconico actually hanging in there with a much better grappler, and Adolfo Vieira has me passing. Yeah, I just, I didn't love Dante Johnson coming off Contender Series.

If memory serves, I think he fought at heavyweight. And, you know, he just was athletic, and so he scored takedons. He's not even a big middleweight. Like, he's big stocky, but I think he's fairly short. like 5-8 for this weight class. Some athleticism here, but I don't see much upside, and I see even less after Cody Brundage took you to task. Mokonico's the same tier.

He probably wins, but this is, if I could get rid of a fight on this card, this would be the one I'd throw away. Unless I was throwing away Barbosa Riebevich, because that makes me feel icky. But that's a different reason to throw away a fight. We stick to the middleweight division as we talk about another,

you don't have to feel icky about it, but I was on the verge of feeling icky about this man not too long ago. Vicente Lucay takes on Trashon Gore. Lucke, very slight underdog, plus 120, Gore, minus 150. Both men two and three over the last five. Both men coming off submission wins. Lucke Anacondid, Calvin Gastilum, in April at 327.

Gore guillotined Azamah Beckerweb in April. I believe that was a fairly large upset. for Treshaun Gore. So, you know, weird to see Vicente Lucke up in middleweight. I know that's where he's making his run now. He didn't look like he was like a supernatural fit to the weight class for me against Calvin Gasol was last time out. But Billy, do you want to take an underdog bet on a guy who had a brain bleed three years ago?

Because that's the question I am grappling with right now. strangely I do I actually like no weight I feel bad about it yeah agreed but but Lucay was actually the first bet I made this week this is one that I already have bet I took Luque in my luck ratings piece

I got him at plus 124 line has already came down shout out to me for some minor CLV my logic is the way to beat Trashon Gore is simply to not get guillotined all three of his wins are by guillotines he's got a massively negative striking differential

Gore has been hit more than twice as many as he's done hitting. He's been knocked down four times, has not knocked anyone down since he's been to the UFC. He's got one thing. And Lucke is a pseudo-Brazilian dude with decent grappling who should probably be able to avoid the fakes submission in all of grappling because guillotines aren't real. If you don't believe in them, they do not work. I will die on that hill. I mean, that's true of all jigsetsu just asked Derek Lewis, but guillotine's in particular, yes.

Yeah, that's been my running bit at the gym. A couple guys have got me. I'm not going to lie, especially in the ghee when you can use the cloth. That doesn't count, though. I'm not counting. There's no geese in the cage. Correct, which makes guillotine's fake. Power guillotine's fake.

Like, regular guillotine, those are fake. I call power guillotines, ninja chokes, and you can't stop me. I mean, yeah, exactly. Like, that's a different thing, but also, like, that's a real choke. You're like, yeah, power guillotine's real. That's fair. This is a great bit. I love this bit.

I've had this for a couple years. I actually went as far, Jed. I got Dars choked by, oh, God. What's his name? Chris McCray, who fought on the ultimate fighter a million years ago. And Tapology had it as a guillotine on my record, even though it very much was not. And I reached out to him, and they fixed it. They changed it to a DART show. I sent him like a grainy cell phone video from my dad's flip phone from 2011.

And they're like, yeah, that maybe looks like a DARS. So they let that one go. But back on topic, Vicente Leuke. Thank you. I appreciate it. It's true, though. People try to guillotine me all the time because I talk so much shit about it, and most of them fail. and just get shoulder.

Jiu-jitsu is fake, too. But yeah, I love that. Yeah, that's why I just shoulder smash everyone who tries to guillotine me and make him real sad. I've talked to Vicente Leuke about this. I haven't, but he also doesn't believe in guillotine, so he's going to win. That's the long and short of it. Yeah, my, I'm, like I said, I'm debating this bet, but I think I'm going to take it because the reasons I'm concerned for Lucay are that his durability has gone downhill and that he, you

know, had a brain bleed, but Trachshankor doesn't knock people out. Like, he's got one K.O. In his career. And so it's not like Lu K's even going to be there. Leuke can just pressure him and kind of win this fight. Probably I'm going to end up taking him plus 120. Just good value. Let us move to the light heavyweight division.

If there's a second fight on this card that I could throw away, this would be it. As Rafael Tobias takes on Lucas Fernando. Tobias plus 210, Fernando minus 275. Tobias, a contender series guy who lost his UFC debut to the esteemed DR Nurghazai in March. Fernando lost on Contender Series a couple of years ago and is now making his UCD debut, but he is entering as the, I guess, technically not reigning, but the most recent LFA champ with even a title defense under his resume, which I guess is why he gets to be the favorite. Billy, I actually graded Tobias as a fairly decent prospect coming off contingencies, and he's still very young, so there's still opportunity for him to succeed here.

But the moment you lose to D.R. Narga's eye, I stop thinking you're a good prospect. And that is the situation we find ourselves in here as Tobias takes Fernando. So in my head, probably a little undervalued against the guy who I don't think is amazing in Fernando, the move up to 205. seems to have benefited him, but I will be passing on this one, Billy. Yeah, I'm not betting this. DR has been consistently one of my, like, hardest fighters to get a read on. Like, he looked great last weekend, and I bet him fairly confidently. But if you just grapple him at all, he falls apart, like, he looks like a legitimate

white belt, and I don't know what Tobias was thinking in that fight and why he didn't push that a little bit more. It does feel weird. But it's just weird, yeah. It doesn't, I mean, he got two take down, so I guess it, you know, he tried. But regardless, yeah, weird situation. If you can't grapple and you're fighting a dude with like a seven-inch reach edge, which Fernando has, that might be a problem. So I guess I get the line, but not a ton of interest in it.

Yeah, just this is, you know, what it is. We'll see how it goes. Just a couple of fights left here. We go to the Walterway Division for both of them. The first one, we will talk about Neil Magny, taking on Aramis Brahimage. Close to a pick-um. Brahimaj is minus 125, last I looked, odds. Magni plus 100.

Magny coming in off the Anacondichoke loss to Yaroslav Amasov in December. Brahimaj coming in off a unanimous decision loss to Punisoriano in February. Billy, to me, this breaks out as can Brahimaj score takedowns? Magni, it's always sort of been his Achilles heel if you can really get a grappling game going against him. If you can't, Magni is going to put voids. volume and pressure and pace and cardio on you for 15 minutes. And Magnea, he's going to Magne. Do you think Brahaymage can get enough takedowns to render Neil Magne the almost 40-year-old

Neil Magny inert or a little upset potential year? I mean, it's not really an upset given the line, but kind of an upset for Neil Magne. Yeah, this is what I want to break some taped out on because I'm leaning towards Brahimaj. I bet him effectively all of his fight since he came back from the neck injury. My rule with extended injuries like that He was out like two plus years Is you don't bet him that first one back

Because we don't know if they're healthy You know, they were probably rushing to get back Because they needed money You bet him that second one And he ripped off a three-fight winning streak All as an underdog Hilarious he was an underdog To Mickey Gall

Hilarious he was plus 310 to Billy Ray Gough You know closer line with Now 240 to Austin Vanderford Like Brahim Baj was kind of free money Then he ran into Soriano Didn't look great Not a terrible fight I'm not worried if you can get takedowns or not.

I'm worried about what happens when he gets down there. Both guys are pretty good grapplers. Magny is tricky and long and all those things that make it annoying. So we'll probably have a full fight preview of this one just because I want to watch tape on these guys. They're fun to watch in interesting angles here, but no bet for me as of yet. So Actionnetwork.com, Friday or Saturday, you'll have a full preview of this one. I'm doing a half unit down on Magny. I just, I think that the longer this fight goes, the better it serves him.

and this is going to be very close. A half unit will pay me out. If I hit it, I'll get a free bet down the line on somebody else. If I lose it, whatever, it's fine. So a little half unit on Magni for me, nothing major. And let's end with a whimper. As Mick DeBek-DeBek-orlbigh-Bide takes on Jeremiah Wells, as mentioned in the Welterweight Division,

biggest betting favorite on the card. I actually want to check the latest odds per my book because the last time I looked, I think this was more closely lined than it currently is at this stage of the proceedings. Oral Bai, regardless, will be the biggest favorite on the card by a good margin, honestly. But let me pull up these right here. The blah-b-ba-bahs is great radio. Mick DeBeck Oralby coming in at a robust minus 1,000 on my book, plus 600 for Jeremiah Wells.

Oralby on a three-fight winning streak. picked up a win over Chris Curtis in March. Wells, a win over Thimba Carimbo in November. Billy, we know what's going to happen. My question is, why is this fight happening? Why is Mick DeBecor by not getting somebody with at least a name, if not a ranking at this stage of his career? Because this fight card is in Philadelphia,

and Sean Brady was busy, is the real answer to that. And Pat Sabatini and Joe Piper, etc. I think they had Wells booked against someone else, or they had one of the Philly guys booked against someone else, and it all kind of fell apart. Aaron Blanfield, not from Philly, but close in Jersey. Also, it was supposed to be on this card no longer. That's why I'm going to get out of here, get a little crazy, though. I'm going to have a slight sprinkle on Wells. I tweeted out last week, I'm going to lose so much money on Jeremiah Wells.

I've always thought he's really good. Even if you look at both of his losses in the UFC, one was a split decision. I thought he clearly won against Max Griffin. The other, he had like two, 10, 8 rounds again. Carlson Harris and just got a little tired and got choked. I've been a big fan of Wells for a long time. I was actually booked to fight him at one point in an event that fell through. I still have the contract on my computer.

Best thing that ever happened was that fight not happening because he would have murdered me. Like, I would not be able to form words to be talking to you right now. You say that, but he didn't murder Timbo Garimbo. So, you know. Timbo Garimbo is full disrespect to Timbo Garimbo. I think you're right there with Timba Grimbo. Yeah, I mean, I'm humble enough to realize that. even at my peak.

I was not UFC level, so a guy like Jeremiah Wells, who to that point had mostly just grappled, and then, yeah, just would have smoked. I'm just glad that didn't happen. He put up, he went 29, 28th on Timbergrimbo, who I simply do not believe in as a fighter. Yeah, no, I don't either.

This is mostly a bit, I will say, like, Wells is a very good grappler, Oroby mostly wins via grappling. I mean, he took Chris Curtis down 19 times. I could see him grappling himself into a little bit of trouble with Wells. I don't think Wells is going to win. I think he is better than like 8 to 1 to catch his mission in a scramble here.

Enormous odds on this one. Like there's enough outcomes here where Oral by either through bad game planning or just going up against a really decorated grappler, sticks his neck somewhere it shouldn't. And yeah, once this clears about plus 800, I'll have 0.2 units or something. If he sticks his neck somewhere you shouldn't, what's he going to get guillotine? Those are fake. So it's fine.

It'll be fine. If he guillotines him, we're going to have you all next to the group to be like, are guillotines real bad? I will have to come back and have to be my mistake. We need to discuss if guillotine's are real or not. Let's look at Jeremiah Wells' submissions, though. I've seen a lot of anacondas and things like that. I don't think any guillotines on his pro record.

So he is a man who respects, he respects real submissions, which is why it's a good thing I didn't have to fight him because I couldn't just lay on top of him while he impotently geotines me. And then it's not. Oh, man, one day I would love you to talk to Dustin Poyer about guillotine. That just seems like good, good quality content right there. Yeah, probably another situation where I'd end up unconscious if I push my luck too long, but... It's going to be bad.

It's going to be bad. This car might be bad, but the main event is a terrific fight. I am very, very much looking forward to it. I'm also looking forward to the co-main event, and I'll try and have some fun with the rest. Billy, thank you for joining me. Tell the people where they can find you all your words. everything you got going for this week. This will come out on Wednesday,

so it will be after Contender Series, but we are Contender Series season, so I know the next nine weeks you will also have content about that. If you want to pitch that, now is the time to do so. Yeah, just posted my week one breakdown. By the time you're hearing this, you can go and either make fun of me

or celebrate my wins with me, depending on how that goes. Tons of work goes into that. I have like a 3,000-word article breaking down every fighter and every fight on the Contender series. so actionnetwork.com or my Twitter handle, which is Psycho Ward 586, Jed has always gotten a good kick out of that one. That was my fight nickname. Twitter won't let me change it. At this point,

I probably couldn't or shouldn't. But yeah, that is where all my stuff is. Contender Series, the most wonderful time of the year, but also a very busy time for those of us. I know you are a fellow Contender Series enjoy your Jed. So I was so I am. I don't do the breakdowns you do on it, though, is the thing. I like to come into Contender Series. knowing almost nothing. Like some of these people I will know from other stuff I've watched. Well, I like to come in with fresh eyes and be like, oh, I think that guy looks good or that guy looks bad.

I will be on a flight to New York for this when this contingency is happening, so I'll have to catch up because by the time you're listening to this, I think it'll already be out. But if it's not, in case this goes up earlier, which is possible, Wednesday morning, I will be on morning combat's pregame preview with Luke Thomas and Chuck Mendenhall. So make sure you check that out, even after the fact. Thursday, we will have a between the links, of course, Friday, preview show for U.S.C.330, at enemy fighting.com.

And then the return of the watch party, me and Mike Heck, getting the band back together. We had to take the last one off, which ended up both kind of working out and not working out, because we would have had a lot of fun with Connor McGregor blowing his knee out, but also I was not that sad to not be part of that. I was on my yearly vacation. That's no longer, so watch parties are back in business. So make sure you tune into that. Keep it locked inmatefighting.com all week for our full coverage of the,

I'm going to call it a pay-per-view. I'm just never going to change. It's a pay-per-view in my mind and in my heart. And for like Australia, it still is. So pay-per-view event as the pound-for-pound best fighter in the world tries to make his case for being maybe the greatest fighter of all time. We will see, Billy. Thank you for joining me.

Thank you all for listening.