MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Ilia Topuria Defeat Max Holloway At UFC 308 And Usher In The New Era Of Featherweight?

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

Ilia Topuria vs. Max Holloway is finally here. This Saturday, UFC 308 takes place at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, headlined by the featherweight title fight that has captured the interest of the entire MMA world. On top of that, a five-round middleweight showdown between Robert Whittaker and Khamzat Chimaev will finally take place. With all that going down, MMA Fighting’s Jed Meshew is back to break down all the fights. This week, Jed runs solo, breaking down all the key aspects of this Saturday's card. Topics discussed include whether Topuria can back up all his trash talk, whether Chimaev can finally earn a title shot, whether Magomed Ankalaev can convince the UFC he deserves a shot at Alex Pereira, and much more. Tune in for episode 105 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Bet's Bar. My name is Jed Mishu.

And this week, joining us to discuss UFC 308 is nobody. That's right. You just got me this week. I looked around to get another guest, but I am on the road right now. Setting up for our UFC 308 watch party, which will go down this Saturday from the brand new, Command Center 4.0 at the Casa de Heck over in South Carolina. And so as a result, a lot of things happening. What with the time changes, you know, with the event in Abu Dhabi,

too difficult. So I did, obviously, for a massive event like this, we have to have a no-bets bar. And so you're just getting me today. Keep it pretty tidy. And certainly you can check out at M.A.Fighting.com for the rest of our thoughts, get other people's positions. But here are mine, as we talk about one of the most anticipated events of the year, frankly. I can't say, like, look at top to bottom. You look at this card. We got 13 fights coming up. It doesn't wow you.

It is not the most spectacular, full-throated event. But the main event is so spectacular. It has such gravitas to it that you could put the rest of this out with absolute garbage and it would not matter. And then your co-main event here is also unbelievable. and a few very good fights mixed in. Long odds all the way through this card, but top to bottom, this should be a good event.

Daytime MMA for us East Coasters is obviously exceptional, and you're going to get your money's worth, I think, this Saturday. But before we hop into 308, let's do a little quick recap of last week. The amazing, the world-renowned event, UFC Vegas-99 plus, more importantly, or at least more significantly that weekend, the PFL Super Fights, Battle of the Giants, etc., etc. Winning week for your boy? Not by a lot, just a little over a unit,

because, frankly, I was having a losing week, but for the fact that if you'd followed the watch party, saw us talking about it, made a last-minute kind of desperation heave of, say, in Austin Lane, maybe he just tackles rebellus to Spain. He's been working with Eric Nick Sick. Nick Sick isn't stupid. Let's bet him by decision at Plus 11 Hondo.

Cash that ticket. It was electric while we were watching the PFL, had that on the second screen. Unbelievable. Francis Inganu obviously paid off in a major way. Big time return to form with a first round TKO finished. Impressive performance from Paul Hughes. I did not see that coming. I got brought on AJ McKee.

I got brought on Larissa Pacheco as Chris Seibor once again fended off father time. I'm almost 40 years old and still. Certainly looks slower, look tough out there, but absolutely deserved to get the win. Very solid PFL event. And then over in the UFC, I backed my boy. It went very, very poorly. Fluffy Hernandez just beat the tar and soul out of Michelle Peta.

Rob Font, I mean, there were some people on the Fon Packers. I know Mike Heck was on him last week. Another big-time underdog performance from the Pride of New England over Kyler Philip. and some other stuff happen. We don't need to get into it too much. But if we want to do a recap, we are up a little over five units on the year with a moderately successful run last weekend. And we hope, frankly, to have similar success this weekend.

As I mentioned earlier, man, you start looking at this card and you realize that a lot of long odds here. I love a lot of these fights. Several of these fights, I think, are very, very good. and yet the odds are long and sometimes in a way that, you know, they're long in the guy I'm favoring to win. Do I want to place that set of wager on him? Do I want to believe in him to the tune of minus 300, et cetera, et cetera?

A few of them, yes. Really good parlay weekend if you're feeling confident in favorites. But if you're not backing underdog, straight bets are going to be a little harder to come by. You're just going to have to live with the juice. So without further delay, I mean, let's just hop. right into the big one. It's Ilya, it's Max Holloway, it's the UFC featherweight title on the line

in Tuporia's first offense since becoming the champion after unthrowning, dethrowning unseating, a long-time kingpin, Alexander Volcanovsky, aka Max Holloway's Bain. And Tuporia is a favorite, not a massive one, but a considerable favorite, a healthy favorite at minus 2.35 or thereabouts on the books. Come back on Holloway is plus 210.

Somewhere, you know, you're floating in that range. And this is, many people have said this. Many people will continue to say this this week. I'll continue to say this on the various shows this week. This is probably the best fight that can be made in MMA right now as far as intrigue, interest, star power, that kind of crossover. Maybe you could do, you know, John Jones, Alex Pahetta, or Alex Pereira, but like this is, for all the stakes, two of the three best featherweights in the world,

uh, changing of the guard, changing of eras, Max Holloway, coming in off, off of that spectacular performance of EFC 300, the knockout of Justin Gaichi. It is, this is everything you want. And I've said it a bunch this weekend. I've seen people push back on this idea. There is an idea that Alex Pereira is the locked in fighter of the year, no doubt about it. I have said for months now that that is absolutely untrue. The winner of Ilya Tuporia versus Max Holloway will be fighter of the year. And I stand on that ground because

of what both of these men have already accomplished and what this win will mean. And, I mean, let's not bury the lead anymore. I believe Ilya Tupori is going to get this done. I am not massively confident in it. I have some level of confidence

to the extent that I am tempted by the minus 235 line because it's about like a 70% win probability. And I would put DePriot's chances maybe a little under that, which is why I'm staying away from any straight action here in this regard. But I've got a full breakdown coming to MMA fighting on Thursday, so you can pop over and check this out.

This is the fight we'll be talking about forever. But to me, this fight comes down to a few things. I believe that Max Holloway is no longer in his best form. It's hard to say after that sensational UFC 300, but I also think Justin Gage is, you know, is on the downslope of his career. And what we saw from Holloway was an exceptional performance, make no doubt about that. But an exceptional performance in the ways that all-time great fighters

can put on great performances when their fastball is losing its edge. We saw this at the end of Anderson Silva's title reign, where pretty clearly he had dropped off a little bit, but he was just so talented and so smart about fighting, he found ways to make these. sensational performances appear. I feel that that's what I saw with Holloway. I do think, and some of that even

tags back to the third Bokanovsky fight where it wasn't his bet, you know, wasn't a great performance. We're seeing him have slowed down in noticeable ways. And on top of that, I think the style matchup is pretty tough for Holloway here. It certainly has avenues.

I think the fact that Max Holloway is unable to be killed is such a monumental boom to him in fighting because you can't hurt him. And I said this all the way back in the Josealdo fight. Like the pair of Josie Aldo fights, go back and watch those and see, Josie Aldo makes a very calculated approach to fighting that. And he says, I can't keep up with Max Holloway's volume. I'm an unbelievable defensive fighter, but you can only block Perry, slip, dodge so many

punches in a row before the tenth of that combination is going to start to land. And I am not, I don't, my toolkit is not such that I can throw at this unbelievable rate that Max Holloway does for five rounds. So if I, if I consent to have a kickboxing bout with him under these terms, I'm going to lose what I'm going to do instead. I'm going to punish him. Every time he gets into a combination, I'm going to sit down and throw the hardest counters I have and disincentivize him from opening up. And that did nothing to Max. Max, the first few rounds, Holloway loses those rounds against Aldo in both the fights because Aldo was just hitting him with much harder shots, but every time he is winning the battle and losing the war because you cannot hurt Max Holloway. You saw something similar with Justin Gehche.

The only person who's really been able to pull that sort of a strategy off is Dustin Porier, who landed harder shots, but also could keep pace with the volume of Max Holloway. I believe Villiotapurie is of the same milk. I think he has the boxing prowess that he can get into extended combinations with Holloway, and he is swinging the heavier lumber. He is bringing more power to the equation, and thus has a slight advantage as combinations go longer. He can just do more damage. But I also think that his style of fighting is one that Max Holloway will have more issues with. I mean, Alexander Volcanovsky is a superior fighter.

off the back foot. That's his whole style is about drawing you in, leading you around by the nose, kicking your legs out, setting traps, sitting down on counters, finding his shots and making things work. And Tupuria, he certainly struggled at times. I'm not saying he walked through Volcanovsky. Volkanowski got offense off. But Holloway is not the backfoot fighter that Volk is.

And if Tuporio could have that success in pushing Volkanovsky back, and kind of muting the offense coming back at him and landing the efforts he needed, I struggle to see how he's not going to have the same sort of effect against Holloway. A lot of wonderful tactical things about this fight that I am fascinated to see. I think both men should work the body a lot. There's like all those little nuances, but in the broadest of strokes, I think Max Hollow is slowing down just a touch. We have not seen the best of Ilya, probably not by a long shot.

and the style matchup favors him and so I'm favoring him to get the win but like I said I can't take it at these odds instead I've kind of sprayed a various number of things on here and sort of up and down the board across I got like five bets on this fight the first bet is the one that I'm

you know I'm on straight for the most and it's a Tupuria Holloway over two and a half Tupuria usually finishes fights very early in his UFC career. I think only two of his fights have hit this over two and a half number. But as we said, Max Holloway is unkillable. I know Topuri is talking a big game about finishing him. I think that it is so unlikely to he finishes Max Holloway that over two and a half feels fine. By the same token, Max is a snowball rolling downhill. He's gone to the fifth round in nine of his past 10 fights. The man, he wins fights, but he wins them by building

on top of itself over and over again. And even the one fight that he didn't, that ended in the third round, that was a chance of a junk fight, the Korean zombie fight, that fight ended because zombie was losing the war. And he felt that he was losing the war and said, I'm going to go out on my shield right now,

stand and deliver, see what happens. If zombie tried to, you know, fight normally and just concede to losing a long, drawn-out battle, that's what would happen. I think it's very, very likely this fight goes, over two and a half rounds, and thus I'm on that straight. I'm also, for a first time ever on this podcast, I'm taking a decision no-bet action. You can find this at a couple of books, and basically what it means is you bet on one fighter,

Max Holloway or Leah Tupura, but you are betting on a finish only. So if the fight goes to a decision, your bet is kicked back to you. It's rendered null and void. So you are betting strictly on one fighter to win inside the distance. at no risk if it does go to the cards. And to me, this is like the perfect bet for a Max Holloway, particularly as an underdog, because if there is to be a finish in this bout,

it will 100% be Holloway. That's my view. Holloway just can't be killed. And so if Taboria comes out here and knocks out Max Hollow, it'll be a locked-up fight of the year, one of the most impressive things I've seen this year, because I think it's so unlikely to happen. And so I'm getting plus 260 as basically a free role

on Holloway to win this inside the cards. And if it goes to the decision, I just get my money back, I'm taking the decision no bet at these odds. I think, honestly, maybe my favorite bet of the weekend because of how likely it is to at least not cost you anything. Two more piece of action on this bite. One, just the baby's sprinkle, just nothing added to this. But I did think it was fun.

I wanted to throw it out of it because it is fun. There's been talk certainly from Tuporius saying, I'm going to come out. I'm going to point to the ground at the start of this fight and have Max Holloway's last 10 seconds, the first 10 seconds. Holloway has rejected this idea entirely and has great reasons for it, you know, says the stand and point is not about brawling like an idiot. It's about I'm winning this fight. I'm going to give the guy an opportunity to put it on the line here and see if he can make the comeback. It's honestly a terrific sort of well, eloquent way to say.

what this is, but Tupuria seems like he's going to do it. And frankly, I think it would be a really good idea for Max Holloway if Tuporia does point to the ground, because when you have the better chin of the two, a wild brawl, probably is actually to your benefit. So in case that happens, the number is plus 1,800 for fight ends in the first 60 seconds. And so why not have a little fun? Let's just, let's enjoy ourselves. I threw that down. We'll see how it goes. And then the last one, If you're a long time listening to the program, if you listen every week, I love you, thank you for it. You know that my newest endeavor, it's called The Climb. The idea is 30 bets in a row, minus 500, that sort of odds.

If you string 30 of those together and roll into each other week over week, you can turn 100 bucks into $30,000, $27,000, something like that. Some astronomical large number. It's a bet that can't be one. No one can convert a 30-leg parlay, basically, but it is a fun thing to pursue. Last week, we managed to pull it off. Though admittedly, Johnny Ebbled made it a little uglier than we wanted it, but he got it done for leg one of the climb 2.0, and leg 2 of the climb 2.0 is Toporia Holloway over 1.5. That's minus 400. Basically the exact same rundown as my over 2.5. Easy-peasy. Lemon squeeze. And that's the main event. Like, there's, it's obviously the best thing that's going on maybe the rest of this year. And certainly this month, wanted to spend a fair bit of time on that. And I do want to spend a fair bit of time on the co-main event as well, because your

co-main event is a five-round middleweight contest. No belts on the line, but probably a title fight opportunity is on the line between former champion Robert Whitaker and Hamzaa Chameh. Chimayev, again, a considerable favorite. Mine is 240. Come back on Whitaker plus 210. Exceptional fight. This is a fight that was supposed to happen previously.

Shemayev was forced to withdraw from that as a Saudi card. Jamai withdrew from that, and instead, Whitaker being the absolute, like, freaking boss that he is, accepted a fight with Ikram al-Ascarov on like a week's notice or something and knocked out Alaskarov in the first round just I mean what a hossy is Robert Whitaker fan favorite for a lot of reasons former champion a sensational fighter and the question which my as always is he going to make it to the fight at this point in time we know uh the number of fights he had was forced out of the kind of delays to his career due to complications from COVID I am not a medical doctor it

seems like he still has some complications as he continues, as he has repeatedly gotten fallen ill during fight preparation as he's putting his body under more stress. But all signs indicate he seems on track to make it to this fight this weekend. Knock on wood, hopefully he does, because this is the matchup we need. Either Whitaker really solidifies himself as I deserve to be fighting for the belt again. I deserve one last crack at it. Or Chimae of a man who we've said for years now, would fight for the welterweight belt, would fight for the middleweight belt, would fight for a belt, finally gets the win

that says, yep, he's fighting for the belt. We're done here. Hopefully he'll make it to that fight. And again, in this situation, I really like Jemai of chances. I like his chances more than I like Tuporius against Holloway. And as a result of that, I am

on Tremaya, even at the minus 240 price tag. I think Robert Wittaker is an exceptional fighter. I think Robert Wittaker very clearly. While I suspect that Max Holloway is declining, to me it is obvious that Robert Whitaker is declining. He is still an elite fighter, and so can still get elite performances and elite wins. But I also think this is, like the main event, a really bad matchup for him. We saw Robert Whitaker struggle with Drickus Duplessi's pure physicality.

Once upon a time, he could manage the physicality of Roel Romero, one of the most athletic men who's ever competed in this sport. he can do that a little less so, particularly when it comes in the form of an elite top position grappler. Because for as good of a wrestler as Romero was, he was never great at holding fighters down working people on top. Driches duplessi is and Hamza Chamaev is that. And so it is hard for me to imagine that Drichas just kind of big brother, Whitaker, threw him to the ground and kind of just played a strong man top game on him. and Whitaker had no answer for that and got run over. I believe Chimaev is a better version of that sort of offensive grappler than Duplessie is. And so if Whitaker can hold up against early pressure, perhaps take this fight a little longer,

I think he clearly has an advantage if this gets into the later rounds. I just, I don't have a lot of faith that this fight's getting into the later round. rounds, you know. Frankly, the books don't really. The over under set at two and a half, and it's basically a pick-em-on-on-on-other side of that. And so I really believe that Hamzaa Shamaev is going to get this done early. And to me, the question is, how does he get it done? Is it a K.O? Is it a T-K-O? And kind of looking at the prices, obviously you're getting a little bit better odds if you select one of those right so like chameh by k o uh looking at it right now it's plus 190 chamiyaev inside the distance is minus 135 though and uh to me the difference in that

versus minus 240 your payout's not that different if you're putting a hundred dollar bet down it's like 40 bucks or whatever which is significant like that's not a nothing but i want to cover all my bases and I don't feel confident enough in picking Chimayev to get a submission versus Jemayas to get a TKO. You know, in general, I would guess submission at plus 250, but I just can't feel confident how it ends. And the difference between the ITD bet versus Chimai Fstrait's not enough. So I'm on Hamsat Shamiya's straight. I think he finally punches his ticket to a title fight. That then keeps the train right on rolling into,

A couple of different places at Bout Order different. I'm not sure it's set in. We are going to proceed down the line to the featherweight fight between Lerone Murphy and Dan Ege. Murphy a minus 250 betting favorite comeback on Dan Ege at plus 220. I mean, obviously, is coming off that wonderful thing. I don't even know how to describe what happened for Dan Ege at UFC 303. National Fight Week. He accepts a fight with Diego Lopez on four hours notice on fight day.

Brian Ortega pulls out. Lopez says yes. Ige lives in Vegas, pops over to the arena. Game on. Unbelievable thing. And as a result of that, this fight is a bit of a weird one to me. I thought Dan I do in the UFC is solid like that. Yes, he lost the fight.

Very competitive, frankly, against Diego Lopez, who appears to be maybe not next, next in line because of Alexander Volcanowski. but his next fight will be for the belt it appears. I thought Dan Ige would get a different opponent, kind of get his opportunity to choose. And instead, Ige is serving in the role he fills right now as gatekeeper to the stars at featherweight. He only loses to the best of the best.

Laurel Murphy 14-0-and-one in his career six-fight win streak in the UFC. One of those guys who's a really tough out and you're not going to get a lot of credit for beating him. And so weird that this is, the reward I get for doing the UFC is solid, but I don't know the circumstances.

Maybe he just wanted it. Maybe this is the best that could happen. He wanted this timeline. But unfortunately, I think it's going to be a tough out for him. Honestly,

I think that he is going to have a difficult time competing against Laurel Murphy because credit to Ige, he cannot die. The man is unfinishable in the same way Max Holloway is.

But, you know, he doesn't have the same fastball he's got going on previously he is also a little bit older a little bit more weathered i think murphy has just shown himself to be a consummate like a very very good fighter um but one that doesn't jump off the page i think he can score takedowns outwork ikeye on the feet kind of win by small margins in every phase of the game and i don't think eke has enough sort of elite offense to turn the tides in a meaningful way i could be wrong but I am on Laurel Murphy by decision. That price is minus 120.

To me, this is why would I bet Laurel Murphy straight up when Danie Gay has never been finished? Just give me the decision prop. I'm getting a little bit better value, and to me, the slight baby amount of risk for a finish here is worth it. Moving right along, we get to perhaps my most anticipated fight of the weekend. A light heavyweight matchup, baby. Maguenekelaev taking on Alexander Rockich.

The stakes here are enormous, and Ancolaev is a big favorite. Minus 350, comeback on Rockich, plus 295. And simply put, Maguette Ancolaev this week, Media Day even announced to all the reporters there that Dana White specifically told him He needs to have a big performance against Rockich to get the title fight against Alex Pereira. Out there, you might be thinking, that's insane. Uncle I have already should have fought Alex Pereira. And now Dana White is saying you need to impress not just beat Alexander Rockich.

And again, would clearly be the guy to fight for Alex Pereira. Need to impress. It really feels unequivocally like the UFC hates this man and wants him nowhere near Alex Brewera. and so what does that mean for him in this performance? Because I got to tell you, Alexander Rockich is a tough dude to look amazing against. This is a competitive fight. Alexander Rockich is mostly in competitive fights. Every once in a while, that fight may end poorly for him.

Think back to the Iri Brohashka fight. But Rockich was winning that fight until he just kind of went yolo on him and killed him. other than that nobody has convincingly beat rockage Jan Blahovic was having a very tough time until the leg injury was suffered and the only other loss he has is Volcanozum here and the splitie this is an elite guy very very good fighter a guy who deserves to fight for a belt at some point probably and so the demand of you got to put on a performance I don't know and how is that going to affect on clive is he going to come out and press because we have seen other fighters be told something

similar. We have seen Curtis Blades' career was in large part set back in many ways by, I want to show my hands off in some of these fights because the UFC has either directly or indirectly kind of let me know. My style isn't interesting. I think Uncle I can't impress. I think he can look good because he's an elite fighter. He may be the best light, heavyweight in the world, but you're asking a ton for him to come out and run. over Alexander Rockets. It is just a big, big request. That being said, I do think he's going to get the dub.

I think he's just a little bit better. I think Rockett is a crafty dude. I don't think Uncle Hive gets nearly enough credit for his power, his own ability to land devastating strikes. He's got seven knockdowns in his UFC career, and people just forget this because they have an idea that he is boring. Because when he needs to, he goes to the wrestling to win, rounds win fights. But again, I think he can do a lot of stuff here. At this price point,

minus 350 is pretty sizable. I think he has decent parley fodder if you're kind of looking to mix up in that way. I haven't figured out exactly what my parley is going to be. I've got four people that I think straight bets make good parley options. And Akhaliev is one of them. I haven't figured out if I'm just going to do a four-teamer and say, light that money on fire because four-legged parley's never hit, or if I'm going to pick and choose, maybe pair him with somebody specific, get like minus one, 40 odds. I haven't quite solved it out, but I will be backing Maguanyl. I have by hook or by crook, get that win, baby, and hopefully fight for the belt next because

he, God damn deserves it. And then we round out the main card with a bit of a funky one. Sharra Bullitt, aka Sharma Megamettev, taking on Armand Petrosian in a middleweight contest. Shawah Bullitt is sort of an anomaly for me. A guy very highly hyped, the UFC clearly thinks very highly of him, but given the situation surrounding his eye that is functionally does not work, he is functionally blind in one eye, and so that limits where he can go. He will basically only fight in the Middle East moving forward.

So how hard can you push a fighter with that sort of limitation? That might not be a huge limitation in the modern day UFC when they go to Abu Dhabi a couple times a year. Saudi is now involved. Maybe that doesn't. But also, how hard can you push a guy who I'm still not sold on? I just don't. Every performance has bits and pieces that are very impressive and then bits and pieces

that are very not impressive. And against our and protrosion, I don't know what I'll learn here because we know that Charle bullet is a very good striker. Arm Petrojan, though, is the more decorated striker, frankly. He has accomplished more in his Muay Thai background. But like Charle Bullitt, Petrojan's a little underwhelming. He has not wowed me with his striking abilities in the octagon. And so I don't know.

I truly don't know who is going to win. To me, this is a certified coin flip fight. There is no doubt in my mind that it's a 50. 50-50 proposition because it's going to be a striking match both men are going to get the fight they want who's going to win i don't know and flip a coin tell me and so by that definition clear value on petrosion for me question is just do i want to be involved in this fight i think at plus 140 i'm i'm just going to say yolo and and throw it on protrosion see if he pays me off gives me a little bit a little bit extra cheddar as the underdog here but i think this is totally

defensive just to be a, I'm going to stay away. Hard to imagine how this fight unfolds in a contest like this. But that's our main card. And so we can now move on to the undercard where, again, you've got a smattering with some really, really good matchups in here, and you got some really, really big odds. And this is kind of both of those, because we're going to go right into Jeff Neal, taking on Hafeel dos Anjos in a welterweight contest, former lightweight champion. RDA.

Sizable underdog, plus 270. Come back on Jeff Neal minus 300. And this is, I mentioned earlier, I got four guys, I think, are parley fodder. Jeff Neal's one of them, baby. He is so advantaged in this fight. God love RDA. He is old as shit. He's been doing this forever.

He is just about to be 40 years old. And that's city miles. He walking around like a 60-year-old out there. The fact that he has been able to have success late in his career picking choosing his spots still has a lot of talent but very clearly slow doesn't wear damage the same way that he used to is not as good a wrestler as he used to be is slower doesn't all of the tools have just they've lost their edge and jeff neal i would say he's probably near the end of his prime if he's not already there but stylistically this is just an enormous advantage for him he is a much bigger man than

RDA, natural welterweight, great takedown defense. Should be straightforward. He mitigate the RDA pressure, laying better shots, outwork him. RDA is still tough enough. Probably goes long, but Jeff Neal, I mean, Jeff Neal not long ago gave Shafkat Rachmanov all he could handle. And yes, Jeff Neal ultimately got finished. That fight was extremely competitive.

And Shofkat Rakmanov is my pick to win the belt come December to be, is the best well-to-wait in the world, by my estimation. Jeff Neal gave him all I could handle. I think this is just a straightforward. Jeff Neal should have a pretty, maybe not easy, but a simple time to get his hand raised over the aging veteran, the Future Hall of Famer in RDA. It was the night before the gathering and all through the house.

The host rapid cozy cashmere throw from Homense for their spouse, kids' toys for $699 under the tree, and crystal glasses for just $14.99. for their brother Lee, a baking dish made in Portugal for Tom and Sue, and a nice $599 candle, perfectly priced just for you. Happy holidays to all, and to all a good price. Home sense, endless presents perfectly priced. That moves us along to a fight that I am very, very interested in, because it features a guy

who I was very high on coming off the Contender Series 2023, and that's Ibo-Oazlan. Ibo Oslin is taking on Hafeel Sir Kira. I may have screwed that up and I do apologize so that's the case. It's a light, heavyweight contest. And close to a pickup, depending on the book you're at,

Ibo Aslan, you can find it plus 100, Hafel minus 120. Obviously, if you're feeling saucy, if you're looking for, you know, a gimmick parlay, you can parley up the Hafeels there. Back-to-back fights. Easy does it. I'm not going that way because I'm in fact

going to back my boy, I'm trying to support my fellows this week. Ibo Aslan was a big pause on a puppy prospect for me coming off contenders series 2023. Those contenders are now 18 and 2 in their UFC careers. So just saying I nailed a lot of good quality people. I think there's one of those losses. I did not think should have been a loss. And Zakira is making his UFC debut.

He's 11 and 0, 8 first round finishes, a little older. but has certainly impressed in the regional scene. And so you're getting kind of a guy that I've seen very little of versus a guy that I've also not seen that much of because Ibo Aslan doesn't have that much out there, but was fairly impressive in what I saw. And so this is just a stone blind, pick them back in my boys. I'm back in every big paw, at least for the foreseeable future.

And so I'm riding the Iboazin. I got a plus 100. Simple enough for me. moving on to the low-key bangor of the fight. This is of the weekend. This is the fight that I think that most people are, we're sleeping on, and now they know about it because,

oh, two dudes got tough names to pronounce, you know, what are we doing? But this is two top 25, top 20 lightweights in Mick Debeck Oralby, taking on Matushu, Rebecca. And, like I said, I think the low-key bangor, I think this fight is going to be

amazing. Oral By, a sizable favorite, minus 300, Rebecca, plus 260. This fight's going to be all about the grappling, maybe. Oral By, looks like he is a top 10 lightweight. Like he just needs the wins. And it may take him a while to get those wins because lightweight is a shark tank. But he looks like a guy who is going to kind of climb that ladder, get to be that spot.

Maybe challenge for about one day. You never know how that will fold out. But unbelievably talented. Rebecca is a dude who's super talented, super underrated, game, hard scrap for anybody who he is ever going to face and can grapple his ass off. And ultimately, I just favor Oral Bai's grappling in this. Both men score a lot of takedowns, work a lot of top position.

Whoever's going to win that battle probably wins the fight. And I do think Oralby is the better wrestler. And mostly I think he is just the more physical specimen in there. I think he just has more ways to control this outcome. them should get the win. My guess is that this bike goes long. But instead of betting anything like that, I just have Oral Bai as a third member of the Parlay Quartet

that I'll mix and match in some way to find lines on. But I really like Oralby, and so I'm going to keep backing him as a future contender in one of the best weight class in the sport. Next up, back to middleweight. Doing a lot of middleweight, and we'll keep this short because I don't have a lot to say. Magamatov taking on Bruno Faheda.

Everybody knows Abis as the dude who got killed by Sean Strickland that one time. And Bruno Fahara is a get-or-get-got-all stars. A guy who all of his UFC fights have ended in the first round. You want to be looking at those unders would not blame you at all. I already have a lot of exposure. And so opted out of that and frankly just opted out of this fight in general. Abis is a slight favorite minus 135, come back on Faheta at plus 120. to me, in my head, Abyss has the ability to score takedowns

and thus should be able to defeat Bruno Faheda. I don't know if you will do that, the fact that he fades so strongly, and the fact that Bruno Fahedda has a pinch it for mucking things up, making things a little ugly than you want to be, obviously has the power to kind of hurt just about anybody. You could sell me, Fahedah's a very live dog here, but mostly what you can sell me is that I don't want to be involved in this fight because the energy is so chaotic.

Let me just watch it. We'll enjoy it as a fan. Don't need to kind of be deep set in like that. Speaking of chaotic energy and not wanting to be involved in a fight, Kennedy and Zichiku taking on Chris Barnett in a heavyweight contest. Barnett was supposed to fight a couple weeks back. The hurricanes that hit Florida sort of screwed up his traveling ability. And so kind of got bumped out to here facing Canadian Zichiku.

in Kenny Nunchucks, as I like to call him, the biggest favorite on the card, minus 750. Come back on Chris Barnett at plus 550. And there's an old adage that there's no more ardent supporter of something than a convert. If you can convert someone to your cause, they will be the strongest supporter of your cause. And as a man who has backed Kenny Nunchucks time after time after time, I'm here to tell you, I've been converted off of it. You don't, he, whatever it is, the man has all the physical gifts in the world. He's a specimen, gigantic.

I thought moving up to heavyweight maybe makes him a little bit better. None of it is working for old Kenny Nunchucks. You just can't support him and you really can't support him at these odds. Yes, the physical disparity here, comical. Chris Barnett, kind of tubby dude, like 5'8, hilarious. We love Huggy Bear. We ride for Huggy Bear here. Kenny Nunchucks carved out a stone, eight feet tall with arms that span the great horizon.

Looks like he should be able to kill everybody he has ever faced and yet consistently loses to middling to bad opposition. There is not, it would in no way surprise me if Kenny Nunchukes like gets inside, looks very good, and then Chris Barnett hits a wheel kick on him to finish this fight. Anything is possible here. And because anything is possible, I don't want to be on a side. Dogger Pass for sure.

If I'm on a side and I've considered throwing a little splash down on Barnett because these odds are so long, mostly I just don't want to be invested there. I am toying. I haven't committed to, but I'm toying with the over one and a half in this fight, though, because Kenny Dunchucks, seven of his 11 UFC fights, they've gone over the one and a half. He's a bit of a slow starter. Chris Barnett, his fights aimed one in four of his UFC bouts have hit the over one and a half. but in all of the losses, he ran just up against it.

We're talking two minutes and 20 seconds, nearly hitting the over, just not quite getting there. I know close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, but maybe it counts in over one and a half bets as well. Mostly, I think the wise course of action is, if you want to throw a splash from Barnett to have some fun, live your life. Mostly just stay away from this fight, though. It's just an easier way to go about things.

Fight that you could choose not to stay away, though. Fareed Basharat in a bantamweight contest taking on Victor Hugo Boschrot, the second biggest favor on the card. Mine is 650. Come back on Hugo at plus 475. Hugo also a 2023 contender series prospect, not as high level as I rated Ebo Aslin, though. Just a rock-solid dude probably hang around the UFC for a while. Meanwhile, the Basharov brothers, as the Basharabros are colloquially known, at least here. They're both elite prospects.

for Ypashara, probably even better than, maybe not better on this brother. I don't know. Unbelievably good prospects. And straight up, just better in all phases. Better striker, better grappler, better wrestler. Should be able to have pretty easy work. Whether he gets a finish or not, I don't know, but I do think he gets a win. Mine is $6.50 is a big price tag.

But if you wanted to add him to a chalk stew, and which honestly, he may end up being added as I don't really want to do a four-leggar, so maybe I'll do a three-legger and a two-leggar. Maybe I'll just put Basharat in with Magerman and Goliath, see how that rolls as a parlay. I think he's a perfectly fine parley piece, even at exorbitant price that he's currently booked at. Moving on down the line, we are almost at the end. We got two fights left for UFC 308. And this one's a bit of a head scratcher, Ishmael, Nardiev, taking on Bruno Silva. Nardiev, the favorite minus 170, come back on Silva plus 150, and I don't know why this fight is happening.

Bruno Silva is on a three-fight losing streak. Granted, it's been to mostly good opposition, but he's still lost three in a row, hasn't done anything that makes me think you should definitely keep this guy on the roster. And meanwhile, Nardiev previously had a UFC run that was unspectacular, and then outside of the promotion, wasn't great either. He's won one of his His previous three bouts before getting the call here for this situation I just I don't get it I honestly just don't know why this fight is happening Because and I think it is clearly a loser leaves town derby

I think it's a coin flip fight right like Nardia is just not that impressive Bruno Silva okay not also well probably looked a little better but he's lost more what do you make of this? Like probably a coin flip. Do you want to be betting on Silva? Feel very similar with the protrusion. Like I said, I'm probably going to go on protusion.

This one, I feel less inclined to make that bet and just say, that's a weird fight. I don't need to be involved. If you do, like I said, I'd go do longer pass here, but live your life, homie, however you want to live. And our event opener, first fight of the evening, sneaky damn good fight. hit not Fakhredinov taking on Carlos Liao, minus 245 favorite Fokadinov,

Liao comeback plus 220. Liao stepping in on short notice Fokadinov was supposed to fight. Nerselton Ruzabayev, that fight fell through, Liao coming over from the PFL where he had a pretty successful run. Like when this was announced earlier this week, I think it was when this fight was announced, everybody was like, oh yeah, like sure he lost Tessaduisi eventual tournament champion in the ultimate playoffs. but this is a guy who's good.

Like, he just fell short against Sadabu Ksi's ability to defend takedowns, outland him on the feet. I think the exact same thing is likely to happen here. I think Fokardinov can defend takedowns and work outwork call the sale on the feet. Also can score takedowns if he wants. I think Fokardinov, he's one of those guys. Probably one of the top 20, 25 walterweights out there. Very tough for him to kind of put together wins in a tough weight class as a guy who nobody wants to fight. But a minus 2.45, you're getting a really.

nice price here. And so he was the fourth member, perhaps the fifth, depending on if you want to add the Bachela up, of sort of the parley fodder. However you want to mix those five up, I'll be doing some combination. Maybe come Saturday when I'm looking at the odds, I'll just say, you'll throw them in a five-team or see what

happens. What will happen, I guarantee you, is a loss of money because nobody has ever won a five-team parlay in the history of fight sport. And that's it, ladies and gentlemen. UFC 308 in the books. Again, sorry I didn't have a guest for us this week.

We'll solve that next week. But with me on the road, it was simply too difficult. Already have a guest lined up for next week. Should come as no surprise who it's going to be. Because next week, the UFC is back. Maybe they're back on the road. They're heading to Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, Rogers Place. Brandon Moreno taking it on Amir al-Bazi in a flyweight main event.

And you also have Aaron Blanchfield taking on Rose Nama Eunice and the co-main event, sensational fights. Derek Lewis, Janata Denise. Big game happening there. Any number, I mean, honestly, it's a very, it's not amazing. They're, you know, it is still, this is a modern day roadshow card. A couple of really, really good ones, a little bit of filler and some solid flying under the radar things. But the main event, exceptional, co-main event, exceptional, and enough other good things for UFC.

Edmonton that we're going to have a good time. But mostly, that matter because we're going to have an unbelievable time Saturday. Keep it locked to MMAFighting.com all this week. We got coverage of Ceremony of Way-ins, weigh-ins, the press conference. And then on Saturday, obviously we'll have live coverage of the entire event, including MMAfighting.com watch party, me and Mike Heck, doing it big for UFC 3.O.A. And oh, by the way, I almost forgot. If you're listening to this in time, tune in 5 p.m. Eastern Standard MMA fighting Wednesday the day this episode drops.

Mike Heck doing a live town hall with PFL co-founder Don Davis answering your questions in a town hall style sit down. Honestly, did not think Don Davis would have the temerity to do any credit to him. Stepped up to the plate, he's going to do it. We'll see how that goes. But keep a lot to me fighting for all your content this week. You know it's going to be great. And next week, we head to Canada. The Great White North, with the King in the North, he going to be coming back.

We don't have a great time. Enjoy the fights this weekend. Thanks for tuning in. Love y'all. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux Beauty and Fragrant sets, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz Holiday Shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com.