MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Ilia Topuria Punch His Way To A Title Shot At UFC Jacksonville?

Episode Date: June 21, 2023

No Bets Barred is turning the big 5-0! That's right, your favorite MMA gambling podcast is back with it's 50th episode and what better way for the No Bets Barred boys to celebrate than with the highly anticipated UFC Jacksonville card. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick the show off with a little discussion of UFC Vegas 75 before jumping into a deep discussion on the main event this weekend between Josh Emmett and Ilia Topuria. Then it's on to the rest of this week's UFC card, with topics of conversation including is Maycee Barber any good, can flyweight unders possibly rebound, and what exactly happens when a man fights his own clone. Tune in for Episode 50 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer,

but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine, available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back another edition of No Bet's Bard this time. UFC Jacksonville. We head down to Duval County. Duval.

You said it. Duval. Duval County. Duval. Big, big featherway matchup. Josh Emmett taking on Elia, Toporia. I'm pretty excited for this card, man. One, because the main event.

Two, because it starts early. Main card at 3 p.m. That is just, oh, it's music to my ears. I, uh, look, I mean, you're never going to hear me complain about an early card. 14 fights. still a lot of fights. Less excited about the card in general. I'm off this week.

I will not be watching this one live. I'm going on vacation, my good man. But you know what I am excited about, Connor Birx? I'm excited about this episode because this is the big 5-0 for us. No bets barred episode 50 in your ear holes, ladies and gentlemen. Who thought we'd come this far? Not me. Definitely not me.

So it's been about what, 14. months, 14 and a half months. We're almost at the 15 month mark and we are now 50 episodes in. I believe starting since UFC 273 all the way back in early April of 2022, we have broken down every single UFC fight card since then. We have. I mean, it's just been, it's a lot. It's a lot of fights when you when you put it like that's you know 40 i will close 50 some odd fight cards i guess just a few under 50 ufc's because we've done a couple of other weekend stuff but yeah big big stuff here so uh wanted to wanted to get that out at the front let everybody know big 50 uh celebrate us you see us about town you know give us a handshake a high five for this great

accomplishment and for losing you money because Connor a podcaster go ahead and shake their hand this weekend shake their hands just let them know uh I'm really excited to follow along as you lose money because Connor I lost money again last week I didn't lose a ton but I lost like a half unit or so so back to back losing weeks for me because I am a loser uh I actually won money last week that's that's two weeks in a row uh trying to dig out of the hole of the of the of the of the 11-week bomb I had at the beginning of June. I've gained back about six units. I mean, man, you can't do it because it didn't happen. But if that 11-unit week did not happen, I mean, over the last like seven weeks, I mean, you'd be looking at it. I'd be up like 19 units.

But I had the 11-unit week. So that has to count in there. Need to have a winning week this week. 50th episode, got to have a winning week. The pressure is on. The pressure is on. The Pressure is on and I got a, I just want to get this out. I don't feel very confident in anything that I'm putting out there today. This is not my level of confidence, not super hot on this car, but maybe that's good. Maybe I don't need to be confident. I just got to shoot from the hip. Now, are you not watching this card because you are uninterested in it or solely because you

will be on vacation and you enjoy your time away? I will be on vacation. I will be playing golf at the time that this car. card is going down on Saturday. So do a golf trip with my buddies every year. So I'll rewatch the highlights. I will certainly tune into MMAFighton.com. Great website to get all the updates.

Love the main event. I really like a couple of other fights on this card. I'm not going to sit here and tell you that all 14 of them are bangers because I do not believe they are. But they're definitely a couple. I'm super interested in it. I will go back and catch, you know, after the fact. But, you know, sometimes you've got to take a break.

And maybe I'm excited about the gambling experience this time, frankly, Connor. Because I'm just going to put the bets in, just shelve them, set them aside, come back to it on Sunday morning and see if I'm up or down money instead of sweating over them, you know? Sunday morning. You think you will make it until Sunday morning and I have all these bets in play. This card will be over around 630 or 7. It'll probably be Saturday night. Okay. Probably Saturday night.

We finish up, we're going to finish up, you know, second round of golf, grab dinner, have a few beverages. I might pull up my phone while we're doing that and just be like, let's see what we're doing here. But, you know. Now, are you a no phone guy on the course? No, I keep my phone on the course, you know, for emergencies, but I don't, you know, I try.

The older I've gotten, the more I try to disassociate myself from my phone when I'm doing other stuff. I'm just around the house, you know, you leave it on you. But if I'm out doing something with friends, I try really hard not to just be the guy who's checking my phone looking down at stuff because I don't know. I don't need that in my life. I want to be present in the moment. I'm with you, man. The less I can be on my phone, the better. Though I would have a hard time if I had my phone on me.

I'm a big pull-up the old ESPN Plus. Just have it there, you know. Don't have to fully focus on it. Just kind of keep tabs, keep tabs on what's going on big. If you ever see me out in New York City on a Saturday fight night? I've definitely done that with other. It feels like we got a little bit of a lag here, huh? A little bit.

It's catching up. I'll edit. But yeah, I do that occasionally for like really big events or whatever this is. Like if this was a pay-per-view, I'm probably going to have the phone up like in the golf car doing some other business, you know. But as we are, nothing here that's too big for me. I mean, the main event, Chef's Kiss. But the rest of it I can probably just catch, you know, later in the evening the next day.

You know, just whenever it comes to me. It's not urgent, pressing business. I feel that. I feel that. Regardless, enjoy the golf trip, man. That's going to be a lot of fun. And you said, Chef's Kiss. Let's get right into it.

The main event. Featherweight bow. Josh Emmett, coming off of a pretty heartbreaking loss, I'll say, in the interim championship against Air Rodriguez, taking on Ilya, Teporia, who still has. has a squeaky clean 13 and 0 record right now. Big favorite, 13 and 0. And by the way that he wins his fights, I guess it is justified right now sitting at minus 320. Josh, I'm at coming back at plus 265. How do you feel about this main event? So love this matchup, really excited about it. I have two primary thoughts I want to hop into you because I've placed no bets right now.

I'm debating between, I've got one bet that I feel very good about or at least that I'm happy with, maybe not good about. But then the other is just whether I want to add a secondary on top of it. The bet I'm talking about here is fight ends by K.O. That prop at minus 110, basically paying out even money. This fight seems to me that we're going to be getting a knockout finish. I mean, Ilya, not a huge knockout artist career-wise. A lot of a club and sub kind of guy gets a lot of submissions.

We know he's got the hands. We know he's got the power there. We have seen it before. Josh Emmett, not many dudes at featherweight swing the lumber harder than Josh Emmett. And so this doesn't, I don't feel like we're getting to the cards here. They're going to come in. They're going to chuck them. One guy's going to eventually fall down.

I think I really like the, the CO prop at minus one. for an answer. My question, Connor, for you. And I want to pitch it to know Betts Bard Nation because I think there might be a little bit of value on Josh Emmett. A little bit of value on Josh Schmidt. He's a big underdog, Iliate Tuporium. Like you said, spotless record, but we've seen him get hurt in there.

We saw Jai Herbert nearly clean his clock. He is not the most defensively responsible guy. Bryce Mitchell, not a great striker by anybody's definition, had some moments. there. If Josh Emmett hits you, you will go to sleep. So I think there's maybe an opportunity. I wouldn't bet Emmett straight. If I'm going to take a flyer on him, it'll be the K.O. Emmett by K.O. because that's, I think, the most likely by far way he would win this fight. It's sitting like plus 450, plus 500 some places. So should I double up? Should I go fight ends by K.O. And then just take a little baby flyer on Emmett by K. All right. Well, I,

I do somewhat agree with that, and I feel like quite a few people also share that sentiment that there is value. This line is pretty big, minus 300. It's wide. It's very wide. Plus 265 coming back for Josh Emmett. I guess just to play devil's advocate here. Josh Emmett is 38.

He does make a fair size cut to featherweight, and he is coming off of a pretty bad loss to the year, Emmett. I mean, to Yaiyre Rodriguez. I mean, he had moments in that fight, but all in all, that was a lot of success for Yair and then obviously getting finished in that one. And I know he's got to be motivated to come back, bounce back, especially against the 13 and O prospect in Ilymouth, Boria, but that has to hurt. That has to hurt the ego and everything when you're getting that close to getting a title shot.

38 years old now it gets taken away. And it was a title shot. It was an interim title shot. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it was a guaranteed title shot. You come that close to it, and now you get a guy like Ilya Taboria who, just out of the octagon, I just have to just say how great of an appreciation I have

for the potential of superstardom this man, Ilya, has. If you take a moment to look down his Instagram, the way he dresses, the woman that he is with, the way that he talks on the microphone, the interviews that he does, I think you just got featured in GQ Spain. Like the dude is like the way he looks. He is built for superstardom.

And then you watch him in the octagon, the finishes, the highlight reels, the guy is made for superstardom. Now in terms of like actual, should he be a minus 300 over Josh Yemen? I don't know. I don't know. I think I might actually side with you

in the fact that there is a little bit of value. Even though I parlayed up Elyde up Elyot-Toborio last week with two legs that. cash so right now I'm sitting on one final leg being Iliate Taboria. I know some more devil's advocate the Jai Herbert obviously that's going to get mentioned I mean I thought he was about to get finished it was a head kick Josh Schemin doesn't really rely too much on head kicks but then again Josh Schumann also has 11 knockdowns at featherweight the most all time in the division tied with Jeremy Stevens I feel like I'm kind of talking in circles right now

I'm on I'll also let me let me let me let me let me let me let me counter what you just said about the head kick because it's not a wrong point it's a very reasonable point i will counter your previous statements about josh himitt josh himitt uh definitely lost i year a year rodriguez went back and we watched that fight a couple of times in prep for this one buddy i'm excited for i'm excited for rodriguez volkanovsky oh buddy i am excited for A little, I'm all the way in there. I am all the way in there. Yair Rodriguez looked enormous in the cage with Josh Schmidt.

And as you accurately described, Josh Hibn makes a big cut. Yair looked enormous. But the things that were, Yair was kind of clubbing Josh Hymid around the cage. Not with the mitts. It was the kicks. The body kicks were brutal. And that is not really Iliate Tupori's game. It's not that.

You say Josh Emmett looked rough. I agree. I don't know if he looked rough in a way that Iliot Toporia is going to replicate in there. So I, again, I wouldn't take Josh Emmett straight. I think if he's going to win, it's going to be by knockout. And you're getting an extra like 125 on it to take him by K.O. Versus taking him straight. But I'm very tempted by the K.O.

problem. Here's one more thing I want to throw out to you. We really don't, most of the time when we see Josh. Emmett, it's in these fantastic striking battles. And obviously he's going to have a ton of success there. What if, what if Healy Taporia comes out here and tries to use the wrestling, tries to go for takedowns? I mean, it wouldn't be a bad idea.

And I just don't know. I'd like to think that Josh Emmett, I know statistically he's not like a dynamite defensive wrestler, but he's not a bad one. I think it certainly would behoove Topperia to not just strictly do a striking contest with Emmett, but it's part of why I love this fight. I'm not really sure what's going to happen in it. It feels closer than the odds line it. I could see either dude. And even if the most likely scenario happens in Elliott-Turperia gets a win, how does it happen? Does he clubbing some of them? Does he just knock him out on the feet? Is this kind of a back and forth, you know, 25-minute

war? Because we've seen Josh Emmett hang around be very durable in spots. So anything sort of in In my opinion, in my opinion, I think if this goes 25, it benefits Josh Emmett. You think so? I think so. I mean, we obviously haven't seen Deporia go that long. He gets finishes in almost all of his fights. I think 12 of his 13 wins are by finish. And typically they don't take that long to get there.

Another thing, I rode the Bryce Mitchell train into the Matador station, and it crashed. It crashed hard. I've seen a couple of people talking about, I think you just mentioned. That always gives you more appreciation for the guy. I mean, I've seen a couple of people, and I think you just mentioned it,

Bryce Mitchell having like some moments. I rewatch that going back in my mind, my purview of having a bet on Bryce Mitchell. And it took about 90 seconds to be like, this was a bad bet. I should not have made this bet. He is getting, he is going to lose this fight.

Yeah, I mean, it was never in doubt, But I'm just saying he found the chin some. And I don't think much of Bryce Mitchell's a striker. I don't think Josh Emmett is like a technician. But man, he swings the lumber. And so I got to be honest, this is all of my feelings are a bit reflective in that I watch Elliott Tripore and find you see all the immense talent. And sometimes, particularly against Bryce Mitchell, he was swinging out of his freaking shoes.

That's kind of why I think the 25 minutes benefits Emmett. Like I Here's what I think Yeah but did Dupureus seem tired at all? Yeah I think he might just have the gas My thing is if he's swinging those Those upper cuts and hooks from his ankles

That's just a huge opportunity To get chin checked in the middle Because he is At points he's almost throwing himself off balance He's swinging so hard And Josh Iman is the kind of guy You can punish that I don't know if he will

And it's weird because I've been on the Tuporia train and I'm still, you know, straight up, I'll pick him to win this fight. It just feels like plus 450 frame it by K.O. It's a lot of value that I kind of want to have a shot on. Well, that's another thing. That's another thing is everything I said about him

in terms of superstardom, potential superstardom that's there, if you're ever going to say Ilya lacks anything, it is definitely not going to be confidence. The man is confident. That is for sure. And that could be his demise, especially against the guy like Josh Emmett. If he is swinging out of his shoes and he gets caught and this time he doesn't survive it like he did in the in the Jai Herbert fight. Either way, I went on the rant, the appreciation I have for Healyot's for you.

I'm excited to watch him fight because if he can come out here and look incredibly impressive over Josh Emmett, this guy's the limit man. Dude lives in Spain. Breeze, the Spanish air, talks about how much he wants to bring the UFC to Spain, has that superstar potential. He's a very exciting prospect to watch in my eyes. I mean, if Tepuri comes out here and just puts the boots to Emmett, we're talking title shot. I think it is very possible. He comes out. He wins this fight, makes a big statement, and then gets on the mic and says something afterwards. In a main event moment, we're talking

him versus Volkovsky in November for the belt because there's no one else. Max Holloway has already fought Volk a million times. Yeah, he's running it with Volk. Brian Ortega is not in the conversation. Arnold Allen just lost to Max. Like it's... And how perfect... And number five in the UFC's rankings?

How perfect is it that it times up two weeks from Saturday? Volcanovsky and Yehya Rodriguez will be fighting. I mean, you just get on the mic. You win. Say he finishes. Josh Emmett gets on the mic. yeah here Volk

you guys go to war whoever wins I got next November that's it and I mean it's just it's just that simple he's young

like you said star potential there comes out makes a statement over a guy who just fought for the interim belt I think

like he can get a title fight with this win and that's the part of it that makes me not want to bet Josh Emmett because some of this is like

the same way you you said you know you were on the Bryce Mitchell train I have had Josh Emmett derail several of my bets over the past few years. And it's just like, what if he's just that guy? And so maybe this is the time I should jump on it. But maybe I'm overthinking it because we know what's coming for Tupuria.

He's going to be the dude soon. Yeah. It feels like Emmett's like kind of an easy guy to doubt. And he's made people pay for that. Very easy guy to doubt. Very easy guy. I've doubted him a bunch. He has made me pay.

And I'm a little gunshot. A little gun shy about Ben Tupuria, certainly at this price. That's why I settled on the ins by K.O. Prop, and even monies, and I'm not picking aside, just picking violence. I like that. I like that because wrestling aside, whatever aside, I do think they're going to come in here and they're going to chuck them. And both these dudes are more than happy to engage in a war.

And with the power that both of them hold and the defensive liabilities that Ilya the poor you can have and I mean as well we've we have seen it a couple times to Josh Emmett too like I think one of these dudes is going to get dropped and yes I like violence under two and a half yes you take you take in the other two and a half yes it's it's one of the classic things I did get a touch better line than is available now so it doesn't do much but regardless I like violence in the spot I under two and a half is currently minus 215 and that's not wrong but wow that i mean that tells you the odds makers do not believe this this is going into the championship rounder two five rounder too five rounder too you don't see that every day

certainly not if it's not heavy weights we're talking about oh yeah i'm not gonna lie a little pat on the bat beat beat that by by a hundred points look at minus 115 well done look at you we move on that's such a good fight it's such a good fight that's what a you that's what a you that's you just have to tip the cap. Bravo to the matchmakers. Well done. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit BestWestern.com for complete terms and conditions. With Instacart, you get groceries that over-deliver so you can over-share your preferences.

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Instacard, groceries that over deliver. Service fees exclusions and terms apply. We go to the co-made event. Let's go ahead. Taking on Macy Barber and a women's flyweight bout he-bus right now, minus 1.95. Macy Barber

plus 165 over under two and a half minus two 15 to the over plus one is 75 for the under how about the comane what do you think here uh so i don't have a bet because there's not a line up for me to bet it i would like to i think depending on the price but i'm assuming based on what the other numbers look like i'd like to be betting a man to heba spy decision in this particular fight uh if you see a line out there for that. None of the places I have access to currently have a line for a H-Bus by decision. Here we go. I don't know where it will come in at, but I mean,

minus 115. Oh, it's fine. Take that. Minus 1-15. Macy Barber is who she is. You know, talked a big game, came in saying she can be the youngest champion ever. She's not. She's on a great run right now.

I mean, four or five wins in a row, something like that. but a couple of those are pretty contentious. Not sure she won a couple of those fights or at least shouldn't have won them. And none of them came against like good opposition, frankly. Because Macy Barber hasn't really grown as a fighter in a while. She can kind of do some stuff. She's very aggressive. And that's sort of the extent of it.

I think Amanda Hebas is simply the better fighter. And the idea here for me is, you know, Hebas has gone to five decisions in her eight UFC fights. Barber's six straight decisions. I think Hebas is going to win. So I think she's better grappler and frankly the slightly cleaner striker. Though I'll give Barbara credit. Barbara will probably push more of a pace on the feet and bring the fight to Hebas a little bit more.

But I think she's largely going to get clubbed around in that. So give me He boss by decision. And I'm doubling up on this fight because I'm an idiot. and I'm taking the over two and a half as a parlay piece, two-leg parlay. So I'm actually with you on the Amanda Heba's train. I just took her money line minus 165. Yeah, I think it's just going to come down to the takedowns as well. I think she's going to have success in the takedowns.

Barbara has like a 47% taked defense. You talk about those contested decisions. She's coming off of one against Andrea Lee. She got taken down five times. I thought she probably lost that fight. I think Hevis is going to have success there. Also, underrated fact that I did not know, he was almost a 70% striking defense.

It's like one of the best in the entire division. So I think it's fairly close on the feet. You could probably give the power aspect to Macy Barber. She obviously has, I think, four knockout wins in the UFC. But I think this one's going to go to the mountain. I think he was going to have some success. I mean, especially after that fight against Arrugio, it's tough to bet against Thivas.

She looked fantastic. She looked so good against him. to Rujo. And like the, she looked decent against Kate and Chichagin up at Flyway too. And I know

Caitlin Chikagan doesn't get a ton of respect. Kitten Chikagan was the third, second or third best flyweight in the world for like five years. Damn good fighter. And Hivas looked very good, losing a decision that maybe she shouldn't have,

frankly. All right, let's keep it moving here. On to the third fight on the main card. Heavyweight bout, Justin Tofa, taking on Austin Lane, this is just your prototypical. It's a heavyweight bout, so we're putting it on the main card type deal.

Right now, Justin Tofa, minus 175, Austin Lane coming back at plus 150. So let's talk about the measurables here. Austin Lane is going to be much bigger. Six inches height. Love measurables. Six inches reach. But let's talk about the things you can't measure, the immeasurables, if you will. Austin Lane.

I'm excited about this. Not only. Please tell me you're going to say what I think you're going to say. Not only is he fighting out of Jacksonville, Florida. We also know he is a former defensive end for the Jacksonville Jaguars as well. I mean, this guy is. Damn right, baby. Dauville County through and through.

I went back. I was looking at his stats, man. I mean, this guy played. Jags legend. Jack's legend. and started seven games in 2012, had two sacks. There was one game on a faithful night. Started nine games as rookie year, baby. This guy's an absolute stud out of Murray State. Shout out to John Moran.

FCS, baby. FCS, got to love it. Not only, there was one faithful night. I believe it was in October of 2012. I could be wrong. Not only did he have a sack, he also had a forced to fumble. I mean, this guy was out there making plays. The people of Duval stand up for him. you got to count that into your breakdown of this fight the crowd is going to be on austin's lane lane side the there the energy is going to be palpable for the lane train in what is it vistasars arena vice stars by stars i think it's viz star memorial by stars memorial shout out i feel like you think i'm going austin lane money line i'm not are you not oh come on I'm just playing violence.

I'm heavy on violence on this fight. What a fate you had me set up to knock me down. Are you on Austin Lane money line? Absolutely. I want the money line. Come on, baby. It's Duval. Jags legend?

Jack's legend. In front of the hometown crowd. This guy, I love Austin Lane in part because his Wikipedia page makes it seem like he's still an active football player and image. M.M.A. is an afterthought entirely, despite the fact he hasn't played football in like five years and has been a active MMA fighter. Like, dude already has like 18 fights or 15 fights in his career. Absolutely betting him because for two reasons. The first is everything you just said.

Jacksonville legend. Jags legend. Duval County all stand up for him. And the second, and arguably more important, frankly, is that Justin Taffa lost a judge. Jared van dera. And so you should never, ever believe in Justin Taffa if he's going to lose to Jared Van dera. So Justin Taffa has a favorite.

Hell no. Not doing that at all. Give me the man, the hometown man, Austin Lane, the lane train. Underdog odds for sure, baby. I feel you, man. Because like I see a lot of people playing Justin Tafa. And it's like, you guys know he lost to Jared van dera, right? That's a thing that happened and he's almost a minus 200.

Also, we have to talk about another aspect here. Austin Lane was supposed to fight junior Taffa at UFC 284. Bout canceled. Now, bro steps in, Justin Taffa. I don't know if there's a little extra motivation there for Justin. I don't know what it is. Does Austin Lane being knocked out in the first round by Greg Hardy, Frank Tate, 5 and 7 Frank Tate at Island Fights 50

And Vernon Lewis 8 and 5 Vernon Lewis at LFA 83 Does any of that cause any concern? Well, I would also point out that Justin Taffa got knocked out in like four seconds By Jorgand de Castro Who just watched compete at PFL5 Last weekend

Didn't do so hot old Yorkin de Castro Because he's not very good So that's my counter there I will say that I am for the sake of science continuing to bet heavyweight over here, one and a half. However, the point you noted is very concerning for that because Lane has only hit over one and a half in two of 15 career fights and taffin three of nine. I would humbly suggest that betting the under one and a half is actually the sharp play here

but that's not what I'll be doing. But that's really the only thought I have there as far as the knockouts. It's going to be completely electric for you that bet. I can assure you of that because in eight UFC fights between these guys, not one of them has attempted a single takedown. My guess is going to be, these guys are going to come in, they are going to swing and someone is going to fall fairly early. If you make it to that over one and a half, it's going to be an absolute fireworks the whole way.

Oh, I mean, it is, this will be, I probably won't get the most out of it since I probably won't end up watching this one live. But for those who follow, you know you're going to have fun. And just one other thing to just the last thing. Look at this man's stats. I have long argued that we need a combine, that the UFC should make all of their, new signes go through a combine and put that up on UFC stats because I'm looking at Austin Lanes on Wikipedia.

6-7-3-cone drill, man. It's a solid three-comb drill time. Justin Taffa is not hitting the three-cone drill in under eight seconds. I guarantee you that. It's a different kind of athlete. 24 reps on the bench press, baby. Does it make you worry that that was 14 years ago?

He was just getting stronger. He wasn't even a full-grown man then. 24 reps on the bench press 9 foot broad jump come on this athlete is going to be fireworks because this man has had when you count his amateur career as well he's had 20 fights none of them have gone the distance and he had what 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 of them 15 of the 20 end of the first round I really am looking forward to this. this. If you like violence, I mean, it's going to be violent. I think we're going to get it from here. I think someone is going to be violent. Slobber knocked.

Absolutely. I mean, yeah, it's going to be violent. All I'm saying is I'm back in. Only one of these two dudes scored a touchdown in the senior bowl. And it wasn't Justin Tassel. Wow. Wow. That's a great pull. That's a great pull. I'm only under one and a half minus 180. Parlayed up the under two and a half as well. I will get into that as we go through the card. Let's continue to go through the card. Featherweight bowed, David Onama taking on Gabriel Santos. Right now you can have Santos from minus 2.15. Onama coming back plus 185.

I don't know how you feel in this fight. I have nothing here. Felt like Onama might be getting disrespected just because of the way Santos debuted against Lauren Murphy and his last performance. But I mean, he's still a dangerous guy. All of his wins are by finish. He almost is coming off the first round finish against Nate Landware instead of it being a loss because Nate Landware is a freak. But, I mean, he is still very dangerous.

I thought about Onama plus 300 inside the distance, but inevitably decided against it. I'm with you. I feel like if you're going to bet it, it's probably his dogg or pass here. but I mean Santos just looked okay in his debut certainly and Onama the Landward loss was just weird man

very Landware is just a hard dude to judge how anybody competes against him because he's such a absolute freaking lunatic in there. He's a psychopath Yeah I just stayed away

All right let's keep it moving last fight on the main card middleweight out Brennan Allen taking on Bruno So Silva, right now, Bernard Allen can be added for minus 180.

Silva coming back plus 155. Your thoughts on this fight? So I'm going to be taking Britain and Allen here. And this isn't a value play, nothing, you know, no sharp betting here. You're not going to get much sharp betting here anyway. Well, I mean, that's very true, but it's sort of just vibes.

I really like the form Alan has showed lately. I mean, his, uh, open my eyes. Frankly, because a lot of us, I didn't even find a common great website, were high on Andre Muniz, probably a little higher than we should have been. And that fight really wasn't even competitive. Like, Brinandall just kind of beat him pillar to post.

And I mean, that's coming off the jaco win. It's coming off Malcun, who is a solid fighter. Like, dudes looked really good. And Chris Curtis is a very, very tough guy to look good against, particularly if you are very reliant on wrestling. it's basically impossible is Chris Curtis. He got taken down by Kelvin Gasolum, but until then he had never been taken down the UFC bout.

And she's just a damn good fighter. He's still only like 28, 29 years old, something like that. And I think we're starting to see the best of him. So, like I said, mostly just a vibes bet, not like a huge tactical breakdown. I just like what he's doing, how he is ascending and peaking. Yes, Bruno Silva coming off the best one of his career, knocking out Brad Tavares, which I didn't think, I remember sitting on this program and saying

Brad Tavares does not get knocked out. Yep, me too. Me too. I was very incorrect about that apparently, so I could get burnt again here. But I think Allen's a better grappler, and I think he can compete on the feet as long as he doesn't catch a big stray. Yeah, I'm going to bet him. I think there's no doubt he's a better grappler.

In my opinion, I think it kind of goes one or two ways. I feel like we're looking at a Brennan Allen submission here or Bruno Silva cracking his chin and him getting knocked out. We've seen him knocked out, Brennan, that being a couple times here in the UFC and he's going against a guy with 20 wins by knockout who has never suffered a defeat by knockout. I feel like standing in training with Bruno Silva for 15 minutes is not the best game playing. Yeah, yeah, I just I don't think it would be wise. I think the deficiencies we've seen from Bruno Silva with the grappling, I think you need to take this to the mat. Six submission losses for Bruno Silva as well. I mean, Alan, 12 wins by sub, including three of his last four. So I think this goes one of those two ways. So I'm on the under two and a half at minus 190.

12 UFC fights for Allen, nine have not gone to a decision. Silva, 10 of his last 11 haven't gone to a decision. I like someone to get a finish here. And that's a very solid bet. No, no qualms with that whatsoever. On to the prelims we go. Welterway bout. Neil Magny taking on Philly Fresh. Phil Row.

Right now you can get Magny minus 165 row plus 140. I don't know if this matters to you, Phil Row fighting out of Orlando. Not Jacksonville, but it is a, you know, a short drive away. That's his only advantage I love this fight Because they're the same person This is like mirror images 6-3 80-inch reach

And they carry it all in the same places If you look at it like Phil Rowe kind of looks like if you cross Neomagney and Chris Curtis together It's just right there And unbelievable This is when Anderson Silva used to say I if I could fight anybody

It would be a clone of myself Neil Magny is getting that opportunity. And as we all know, Neil Magny, Anderson Silva, same tier of fighter. So he deserves that opportunity. Same cut from the same cloth, just levels to the game. And outside of the Orlando connection and being slightly younger, I think Neil Magne has every advantage in this fight. To me, I mean, they are mere images, but I think Magny is a much better clinch fighter. I think he's very, very good in the clinch pretty underrated there.

Better offensive wrestler and top position grappler. And most importantly, better cardio. We haven't really seen Neil Magnus cardio ever be a problem. And yes, Phil Roe did end up getting the knockout over Nico Price in that third round that comeback knockout last year. He was pretty tired when that, he was taking some deep, deep breaths. He was also well on his way to losing that fight. Oh, yeah, it was well on his way to losing Nico Price gasped out,

and Phil Roe was just slightly less gassed out than Nico Price was, taking some big deep breaths, and that's not going to be, Neil Magny has the cardio for days. This is a better crunch grappler. I think he's just got enough advantages. So I just took Neil Magny straight at minus 165. Wow. Am I tripping?

Was Phil Rowe up 20 to 18 on every scorecard going into that one? Oh, no, he shouldn't have been. I definitely remember thinking that he was losing. I also rewatch that fight this morning and feel like he was losing. Was he really up? No, I'm looking at it. He was up 2018 on every scorecard. Wow.

Wow. That is not my recollection of how the scores were or watched that fight this morning. You just said it too. You said a comeback. I could have sworn he was down. Wow. It definitely by any definition was a comeback because Price was putting it on him in that third until he gassed out. Yeah. I mean, here I am thinking that was a major comeback. But regardless, everything you just said, I completely agree with. I've been on Neil Magny since early on.

Took him at minus 135. I thought this line was going to move more. I was honestly surprised to be to see it at minus 135. And it's it's so. So much so, like I'm also seeing so many people on Neil Magni and I'm so high on this bet that I'm starting to get in my own head and be worried about it. I'm like, well, I shouldn't be this confident. No fear. Let me throw another thing out of you because I haven't actually placed a bet, but I'm thinking just go Magni straight because I'm trying to be a little more disciplined coming off back-to-back losers.

But Neomagney and decisions, they go together like peanut butter and jelly, baby. You get Neil Magny by decision. I think the number's like plus 110. Is that, is that a better line? Is that a line I should, should attack instead of Neil Magny straight at minus 165? I don't know. I feel like you just take it straight. Okay. Look, that's a responsible adult move. We're going to stay responsible. All right. And that's that. We're both on Neil Magne. And I kind of feel like the rest of the world is too. And I'm, I'm getting a little worried. But I last, I think he does have a lot of advantage. in this fight. I also think the level of competition

that he's faced. Much higher. It's not Gabe Green. It's not Orion So say. It's the best of the best. We keep it rolling. Randy Brown, another welterweight bout. Taking on Wellington tournament right now, Randy Brown, minus 225, termin plus 190.

I kind of like this as a little bounce back spot for Randy Brown. I think, you know, obviously taller, obviously longer, obviously range year. I think he's the better striker. IA decent margin. I think he has a bigger finishing upside on the feet. Obviously, Terman, if he gets it to the ground, training with Glover, we've seen him get subs.

But I don't know. I feel like Randy Brown, stick and move, find a finish. I have almost exactly the same notes here. I got Brown, just a much more dangerous striker. Termin is not really hugely scary there. Doesn't have too much to offer on the feet. Yeah, if you can get the taketowns, maybe something can happen there. Randy Brown's a pretty good defensive wrestler.

Got a lot of length, got a lot of power edges here. So the only thing that could give me any slight concern, Termin's still very young. You can see young guys make big leaps overnight, you know, but I think this is, like you said, a good bounce back spot. I've got Randy Brown is the second leg of the two-leg parlay with the Hebas-Barber over two and a half. Hebas-barber over two and a half, Randy Brown,

the RB Parlay pays plus 11. the R.B parlay, I love that. So we're clear. Randy Brown. I picked the wrong parlay. I picked the Christian parlay last week because the price was better. Both legs failed. Had I picked the Armin parlay last week,

winter, winter chicken dinner, baby. I just picked the wrong parlay. The double D parlay in PFL cashed big money, though. Shout out. Shout out. That was the Julia Bud one that was like, Julia Bud,

That's a bad one that were very dicey from Julian. Hey, never in doubt. Never in doubt. I'm actually not on Randy Brown. I'm on the under. I felt at the price that I got plus 115. I think that both guys are live for a finish. Randy Brown finished in four of his five losses.

Termin finished the two of his last three. I think Randy Brown gets him out of there. I suspect that you're correct. So when I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99. How could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece?

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Our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfru.com. And we keep on rolling to a lightweight bout Matais, Rebecca taking on Loyk Radzabov. Tough name match up here. Tough name match up here. Right now, you can get Rebecca for minus 150. Loik coming back at plus 135. Don't really have a strong read on this fight.

I was on Rebecca inside the distance in that Fioro matchup. He emptied the tank to try to get it done. Then he didn't have much left. Obviously, he still won clearly in that fight, but just not incredibly impressed by him. And I feel like Loic sort of has similar style as him. They're both going to be pretty dependent on the takedowns. I don't know who's going to be able to edge it on the feet.

So yeah, I just, I don't have a strong reader. So I don't have a bet if I'd have more time. I might do a little tape study. I just didn't have any time to do any real study. My read is, I think Rebecca's probably slightly overrated as a fighter just because he's got the big gaudy record at like 17 and 1 or something like that. Whereas Loik's probably a little underrated. So kind of one of favor, like especially he's much bigger.

Rebecca's pretty small for lightweight. And, I mean, Tajikistan's having a moment right now. I don't know that I'd want to be betting against a Tajik fighter in there. So it kind of feels like I'd be dogg or pass here. If I have some time to watch the little tape and feel better, maybe I'll throw one down, but I just didn't. Yeah, if I was going to bet it, I think I would end up taking Loyke. But let's keep it rolling.

Strawway Bout, Tabitha, Baby Shark, Reachie taking on Jillian Robertson. Right now. Closely lined fight. You can have Tabitha Ritchie minus 130. Robertson plus 110. Robertson as cashed as a dog for this program on more than one occasion, if I'm not mistaken. She feels like she's had a little bit of a resurgence. That ground game is nasty. Similar to the last fight though, man. It's kind of tough to call. Is Ritchie just going to be able to grind her out for 15 minutes or is Jillian Robertson going to be able to have success when this does go to the map? because I feel like it is inevitable that this fight hits the mat. I decided to stay away.

Do you have a bet on this fight? I do not have a bet on this fight. I also decided to stay away. Let me talk you through this because this fight is awesome. This is like my second or third favorite fight. I, this was going to be my chat GPT bet of the week. And then I realized that I'm actually not going to be watching this fight live. There's no chance I'll be watching it.

And I don't want to have a chat GPT bet down if I can't be there to support it the whole way. So hiatus to the chat GPT, but this would have been it. And so then I dove into it. And I just can't feel comfortable either way because like you said, I mean, it's going to come down to the grappling, realistically. Ritchie gets a lot of takedowns, a lot of top position, a lot of control. Robertson nasty ground game. Not as effective off our back. We've seen Miranda Maverick just kind of sit on her for a while.

can reach you do the same maybe but maverick also had some clear physical advantages and robertson cutting down to straw weight looking good big for big for you know certainly this fight so i think this is a great fight i will absolutely be watching uh on either saturday evening or sunday but i just decided to stay away yeah i'm in lockstep i'm looking forward to it but i decided i got my money elsewhere uh don't need to to overextend so let's keep it rolling Jillian Robertson comes out and gets a sub. Hoo! We're talking to the moon.

Like, some things are happening. New contender lined up. Yeah. 12 and 7 making a resurgence. 13 and 7 at that point. But let's keep it rolling to a men's flyway bout. Man, just doesn't have the same ring to it. Not the same panache it used to have.

One in one last week on flyway vendors. Yeah. And this man we're about to talk was supposed to be fighting. last week for the third. Zalgus Zumagulov taking on Joshua Van in a short notice replacement bout right now. Zalgus

minus 190, Joshua Van plus 160. I actually think there is somewhat of a case to be made for the under. Like it's a big step up on short notice for Josh Van eight pro fights. He's never seen a third round. Zalgus, like he's not a big finisher, but this is a

step down in competition and his fighting career is essentially on the line. here. He's one in five in the UFC and he is somehow getting another chance. In my eyes, like a favorable matchup. Yeah, it's the haircut. It feels like he wants to go out and get a finish, especially because in his UFC career he has, what, two, three split decisions. There's a case to be made for it. There's a case to be made for it. So I don't think I'm going to play it, but I don't think it's the worst bet in the world. I'm playing it.

Let's go. For the stuff you said, I mean, we're not in the negatives for Flywood Under Money yet. I mean, we are basically at net even at the moment. So this could be the one that drops us down. But I do things, go to guys back against the wall. Van, just a young pup, just 21 years old, just full of vinegar, just gets done in seven minutes or less. of fighting and I think that he's the hope he comes in here to try and do something like that and

either get something cool or or get zoomed you know just gets zoomed right on out of the cage so I'm taking it don't have the confidence I used to have for flywood unders but we're going to keep keep rolling. Zalgus 1 in 5 minus 190 it's a hefty price to pet it is but 21 year old kid making his debut on like two days notice or whatever insane thing it is very good true. We keep it rolling to the next fight. A lightweight bout. Trevor Peake taking on Chepe Mariscoe. And all I have to say about this one, oh, firstly, the fight is essentially a pickum, minus 110 each way. It's peak week. If you know of Trevor Peak, the pride of Pizgal, Alabama, making his return to the Octagon, absolutely insane story, he's been arrested 16 times

He was living in a meth house before being arrested and claims he found God behind bars. And now he fights like it too. I mean, this man is not here for a long time. He is here for a good time. He is the embodiment of that. Mr. Standing Hammer Fists himself, Trevor Peek. And I'm not going to have Trevor Peek fight again and me not be on the under. eight pro fights all eight finishing under the two and a half six under the one and a half eight and oh

all wins coming by way of knockout it's peak week it is peak week and therefore i am on the under on the on the flip side uh mara scow five of his last seven under the one and a half as well and we go back to the immeasurables a little bit it's not florida it's definitely not jacksonville he is training out of agogi combatives in north Georgia on map that isn't a gogy compatitives in chattanooga oh is it chattanooga i'm like somewhat confident that it's chadanooga tennessee well you know because chattanooga is like because i want to be clear when i say i'm i was going to pick trevor pique because he's fighting out of chattanooga where i have a ton of family

so i blind support so here's the thing Chattanooga is very close to the border. It's right on the border. The gym itself is actually in Rossville, Georgia. Is it? Yeah, I'm looking at it right now. 95 Hunt Drive, Rossville, Georgia. That's where I mapped it from.

His house is probably in Chattanooga. It's in Katusa County, where I, again, have a shitload of family members. Shout out to Katusa County. Anyone listening from there? Shout out. My point is, we can even map it from, Chattanooga. I mean, it's the same.

Like, it's, he's, it, it is right at the edge of Kutu, Kutuzin, Tennessee border. Let's go from the Chattanooga chichu, uh, real ones know if you've been to Chattanooga. We'll go from the Chattanooga chuchu all the way down to Vistars Veterans Memorial Arena. Uh, and that's going to take a seven hours. I would say that would have been seven hours and 20 minutes, maybe. Bingo, seven hours. So we're close enough where the, friends and family have no excuse not to go, but we're far enough where they're making a nice

trek. They need to see someone put on a show. And I think Trevor Peake is going to do that. Friends, family, in the crowd, they're going to be going crazy. They'll be hitting a peak, no pun intended, peak week either way. Under is all I'm saying, after this long soliloquy under one and a half, parlayed up under two and a half with the heavyweight main card fight. Love it. I'm taking Trevor Peek because I guarantee you. My grandfather will text me sometime this week and be like, hey, there's Chen Nugge boy who's fighting.

Yes. Let's go. Does it every time. Let's go. I love it. We'll keep it moving then to a featherweight bow. Jamal Emmer's taking on Jack Jenkins. Right now, Jamers, a sizable favorite minus 200, Jack Jenkins plus 170.

This is Dogger Pass for me, but I am passing. I really have no clue. who's going to be able to get the tak downs or the leg kick's going to be working for Jack. I just don't feel strongly enough to bet it. It should be a decently entertaining fight. Do you have a solid read here? Are you riding with either side?

I've absolutely zero thoughts on this fight. All right. That's all you had to say and we'll keep it rolling. Second to last fight on the card. Can we get some respect for Tatsuro Taira? He feels like he's always either opening the card or the second fight of the night. It is a men's flyway bout.

Tatsuro, Tyra. I know, isn't that just ridiculous? Taking on Cletson Rodriguez right now, Tyra. Tankin, man. I mean, he opened at like minus 400. Minus 245 now, Cletton plus 205. Over Under set at two and a half. And for me, there's a case to be made for the under here as well, Tyra.

Eight of his last 10 have not seen a third round. Kledson, four of his last six, have also not seen a third round. there's a case not a bad bet i'm smashing me under here okay then i'll write it with you that's all you know what i wasn't going to add any more bets i'll write it with you i'm i'm continuing to believe in it because if you believe in the bet it will believe in you back i think we got a little complacent and we weren't believing enough in it and now i'm i'm not going to let that stop me i'm coming right back at it i will also add to this though,

uh, the disrespect for Tatsuu-R-Taira is, is very real because, I mean, this kid, this is probably the future of your fly-way division, 23, undefeated,

looking great every time he steps out of the cage. You'd finally have a fly-way main event and then you're coming back with the future of the division and putting them as the curtain jerker or damn near the curtain-jurker. Not sure what we're doing here from a booking standpoint, but Tatoa-R-R-Tarra is going to continue to dominate. The fact that this

price has been dropping is very interesting to me. I'm, you know, I normally don't like to lay a straight bet on somebody at, you know, minus 250 almost. But certainly if it keeps dropping, I'm definitely going to play him. And I might take a shot anyway, like minus 225 because I love to a tire. I think this guy's the future of the fly weights. Yeah, he's the man. I'm looking forward to it. All right, I'll ride the flyweight under. You know what? Here's what I'll do. I will ride this flyweight under and if it hits then i'll take the winnings and and ride it into into the zuma gula fight oh i love that energy that's the kind of energy we need to be for all right last fight of the night middleweight bout out technically the first fight of the night last fight

we're recapping cody brundage taken on s d dumas it is the return of sedriq dumas after uh not the best showing last time out. A couple of times during this podcast, we have talked about the immeasurables in this fight, similar to Trevor Peak. Dumas fighting out of Pensacola, Florida. If you're familiar with Florida geography, it's a huge state. You can spend a lot of time in Florida and not leave the state lines. Pensacola about five hours away, same thing as Trevor Peak.

Close enough where you got to make the trip if you're friends and family, but also not close enough that it's not, you know, just a day trip. You're going to have to stay a couple nights. So you're expecting to see a show. Also, first fight of the night, S.D. Dumas is going to have the crowd. There's no doubt about that. Friends and family are going to be coming from Pensacola to support first five of the night. Not many people in there. So you're going to be, you're going to be hearing it for SD. You might as well change Duval to Dumas, if I can there. I mean, that's just an easy one. Second, last time out, man, against Josh Fram, he got beat, he got finished,

and he kind of got clowned on social media hard after the fight. No, I'm not saying wrongfully or rightfully so, but you have to think a dude that was seven and no prior to that is coming to make amends. I think he is coming to get a finish. And on the other side, he's taking Cody Brundage, skid, lost two fights in a row, coming in on short notice. For all these reasons, I like that. like more violence on this card. I will be taking the under one and a half, parlaying the under two

and a half with the aforementioned under two and a half. And if we want to go by the measureables, a lot of violence from you on the car. And I just added another violence. I mean, I have a lot of violence on this card. 17 of their combined 20 pro fights under the two and a half, 14 of those under the one and a half. Brundage, four straight under one and a half, five is six in the UFC under one and half. I don't think anything's going to change here. I think this will be violence. So yeah, I mean, you said it. I got one, two, three. If the Tatsuro hits, that would be four on the Zalgas.

Then I got the Randy Brown five, Brennan's six, Justin Taffa, seven, and then the main event eight. I have eight of the 14 fights I have unders. Sheesh, what could go wrong? Nothing, just going to be a quick night at the office. Everybody's going to get in, get out, get paid, baby. Jacksonville needs to be loud. They need to be loud.

Do you all stand up. Duval stand up. That is UFC Jacksonville. Easy, clean, green, under an hour. Now, I know you're going on vacation. Anything. I have no PFL action. I don't know if you do.

Me neither. None. None. I have none. I would have had it had Cedric Dune Bay still been on this card. And I will admit, pretty excited that he's off because I thought I was going to go on vacation and miss the Dume Bay PFL be in attendance.

for. And then that happened. And I was like, well, that worked out for me. No disrespect to OAM or anybody else. Shane Burgos, love all those guys. But Dumebe was the attraction for sure. Cedric Dumebe round one was the easiest bet I was ever going to have to make because he had to get the first round finish. And that is what he does. Yeah, if you want to know anything about this PFL card, the last five fights are favorites of minus 500 or bigger. Oh, yeah. Pretty major favorites. Honestly, you could probably just blind bet all the dogs, given the way the PFL seasons have been going and probably profit. Because I had several upsets in the last couple of weeks,

but I won't be doing any of that. Yeah, yeah, I'm good on just sitting this one out. All right, that's that. UFC Jacksonville, no PFL6. And next week, we're back. UFC Vegas 76. The card of the season. Strickland versus Magametteov

Uh Co-lane event's dope Demir Smogulov versus Grant Dawson's a great fight Yeah, Demir's back That's good Demer's back Unretired, it's great But yeah

Kevin Lee making his return To the Octagon Kevin Lee I actually kind of like him as a dog I'm not gonna lie Uh Melissa Gato Gotto Got a lot of Oves on this card And a fight between two Oves

Logging of Alexi Romano Hegey Overaction coming at you Romanoff's back Oh, Garam's on this car Against Ellis Brenner Uh yeah I mean

A lot of stuff happening on this guy Yeah Won't call any of it great But it's there I call you a liar if you did I called you a liar But it doesn't matter if it's great It's just the amuse-moosh

The appetizer For the best card of the year Just too weeks away, international play. We cannot wait. See you next week. Enjoy the golf trip, Jed. Thank you and love y'all.