MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Israel Adesanya Finally Defeat Alex Pereira At UFC 281?

Episode Date: November 9, 2022

UFC 281 is here with two title fights, a potential Fight of the Year contender, and a bevy of other bouts, and you know what that means: the No Bets Barred boys are here to cover all the betting angles on the card! First, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew celebrate the return of Flyweight Unders at UFC Vegas 64 before jumping in for in-depth analysis of the middleweight title grudge match between Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira, the strawweight title tilt between Carla Esparza and Weili Zhang, and the lightweight barnburner between Dustin Poirier and Michael Chandler. In the end, Conner and Jed end up with nearly two dozen bets, including an especially juicy parlay, and Jed once again shoving All-In on one particular fighter. Tune in for Episode 24 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible.

We are back. It is another edition of No Betts Barred this time for UFC 281, Israel, Adisania. Going against Alex Pereira, it'll be the third time they've fought. First time in MMA. View Week. Flyweight hunters are back. I mean, the vibes are as high as they could possibly get the U.S. They never left, Connor. They never ever left, baby. You're right. So we'll just start right there. I mean, we'll just get right into the flyweight hunters. I didn't bet them last week. I felt like I needed to, you know, just take a breather. Some people were like, you must regret that. You must regret abandoning your baby. It wasn't abandonment. It felt like I was a proud father on the sidelines.

I was watching them, cheering them on admirably. And especially the to, gear because I had a bet on that. I was just like, the doubters, I mean, are welcome. We welcome the doubters. We lose two in a row. We get them right back. Bang, bang. Big plus money. Plus 160 plus 90? I ended up getting it at plus 170s basically for both of them right around there. So just monster. Monster week. You're talking about if you put a unit on each of those, you're now looking at 1.4 units profit on a ongoing two and two. I mean, that's the flyweight underway. Yeah, it's, look, nobody ever went broke making a profit. And those two flyweight unders last week, I did not watch most of the card live. I was keeping up with it on MMAFinding.com,

great website. Great website. I had my bets down. And as I'm watching it, I'm like, oh, I did catch the main card, but as I'm scrolling through my phone or whatever for the Hadley triangle was like, oh boom baby that's how we start the night off started off with tamirs fedal just instantly blowing romano pasquale out the door i was like blasted and that's why you want to have a bet down the first because that happened immediately and i was like it's going to be a good night i followed that up with the flyweight under and i ended up losing missing three bets last week that was all covered plus some by the flyweight unders and everything else pure profit baby i mean it's it's just a beautiful thing and and like when hadley locked that up i was just like

Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, this is hitting. It took a while for it to finally, like, he had it for like 30 or 40 seconds before it finally the fight got called. But I was like, just right when he got it, I was like, they're so back. They never went anywhere. I mean, it's just a beautiful thing. I would have been stressing had I watched it. Like, because I went back and watched afterwards. Had it been live, I would have been like, I would have been a little bit sweaty. Like, he's, he's hanging out here a long time. You're spitting this long in it. Maybe those legs get a little tired. Maybe it drops off.

Maybe escapes. And then I'm going to be just heartbroken. No, never in doubt. Never in doubt for even a second. And Tagir just made it look easy. Like, it was never, ever in doubt with Tagir. I felt incredibly good about that bet. I know we talked about on the show questions.

I felt unbelievably good when I saw the photo of Nate Maness making the weight cut. I was just like, I want to be clear. I didn't feel good for him as a person because that was just horrifying to look at what he did to himself to get to that weight. But then I was like, I feel pretty confident he's not going to make it very long in this fight because you just can't do your, you can't do your body like that and expect good results. No, you absolutely cannot. It was scary, and someone to have to go through that just to make, I mean, however much money Nate Menace made off that fight, I can't imagine it's generational wealth or anything. And to put your body through that is, it's bad, man. I think he needs to, I mean, he talked a lot on Twitter about how successful of a cut it was, obviously, with the way that he performed.

I would probably beg to differ on how it affected his body. I would hope he starts fighting at 135 again, the very next fight. I would hope so too I will say shout out to him though A plus Twitter work After the fight This weekend He throws up a y'all got any more

Than Dagestanis Nobody wants to fight tweet Just A plus plus With the Dave Chappelle Crack Yeah I can't remember that character's name But yeah

Yeah all time stuff One other thing I want to get into And I don't know How aware you were of it As the card was going on Derek Minner, Shiley Ann Nordenbeka. So pretty much all week, Derek Minner is sitting at plus 170 plus 180. And then in the hours leading up to the fight, he sky rockets to plus 330.

A lot of people hit me up. And they were like, have you seen this line movement? And I, you know, I looked at it. I was like, wow, I don't, I can't possibly think of a reason why that's happening. And then Derek Miner. There's only one. There's only one. and it would be, oh, Derek Minter is probably injured

and someone knows something about this and sure enough, the fight is over in 60 seconds. Derek Minner, I mean, he didn't just injure his knee, but once he had like given in the fact that it was injured, there was nothing. He was covered up. He was like, please just stop this fight. That's what it looked like.

There was no effort to even remain in the fight at all. He threw one leg kick, knees injured, throws another one, goes down, fights over. Yeah, it's pretty shady shit, man. And I'm not saying Derek Minner is in on this by no means making that accusation. I don't think he is at all. The theory that I have in my head is that the information of his injury leaked and people started spreading the word like wildfire and people were just hammering it.

I mean, in this independent investigation that the UFC and the sports books are are having take place, they talk about the line dropping to minus 450 and people still just hammering and people hammering Nordenbecka first round KOT, KEO, despite never having a finish in the UFC, hammering the under two and a half. I just, it is very shady. The simplest answer, usually the correct one. And I feel comfortable saying that something for sure happened because the thing that is the most damning and obvious to me is is what you mentioned about people still hammering the line as it drops you know uh you can explain like i could explain this way or i could at least see a plausible explanation if that line moved because a big better

through an enormous sum and that still feel shady and still looks like that guy maybe was tipped off but the fact that it was a multitude of bets that kept this line moved and that even as the line moved, you know, there's, that only has one real explanation. It's not like a thousand people were waiting on the sidelines and like, I got to wait till the last minute because I'm going to fade Derek Minner, but I think this line's going to move and then they just hopped on it. Like that just is so incredibly not plausible here. So another thing about it is, you know, best fight odds, fight odds.io. It was across all sports books.

It's not like Draft Kings took major action on Norton Beka and they moved the line of smidge. Every sports book, I mean, Bet MGM had it minus 450, Draft Kings minus 410, Bet Rivers had it minus 400, Fandul, minus 350. And Norton Becker was like, I mean, all week, just like he opened it minus 200, goes to minus 205, back to 200, down to 215, like Saturday at 345, 15 minutes before the card started, he was sitting on Draft King's Sportsbook at minus 220. Like he was sitting there all week, closed at minus 410. Yeah, it's a something happened.

Somebody said something, I don't know who, and that's where, you know, theoretically an independent investigation will reveal something, but somebody should get in trouble for this because it's both a bad look and just really bad objectively. And all of this is suboptimal because, you know, the part of this that won't get talked about, and this isn't really what our podcast is about, so we don't have to dive into it. But one of the things I always think about, and I thought about it with the TJ situation, even though in the aftermath, sounds like this really wasn't part of it, is just like Derek Minner fought. Derek Minter clearly came into that fight compromised and felt he needed to fight. and it would be a lot cooler if fighters were compensated to a degree that he doesn't feel he needs to take this fight when he is obviously physically uncompromised because, and again, extremely clear,

I am no way suggesting Derek Minner was involved or this was a throw or anything like that. But that does create opportunities for similar situations to be much, much shady, or where there is a fighter who says, man, my knee's blown out, I need to take this paycheck. And I'm only making 10 in 10 or whatever, because I'm a contender series guy. Maybe I just, you know, tell Aunt Betty, I'm probably not going to win this one because I can barely walk.

And she bets the mortgage on it. And then we settle up after the fact. Like the pay structure creates these incentives. And I don't think that's what happened here. But it would not surprise. me if things like that became much more commonplace moving forward because of the way stuff works, man, the way the world works. Yeah, I mean, that's a great point by you.

I really hadn't even thought of the old, you know, tell a friend to tell a friend to tell a friend. And then you settle it up afterward because you know you're not going to win this fight and you need the payday. You might as well make the payday that much richer. I mean, I can't imagine the mindset of Derek Minner going into that fight almost positive. He is going to lose it and take a big. beating in the process just to get his half of the pay.

Like, he's like, well, wind bonus ain't happening. I'm just getting my show pay. And I'm just going to have to get beaten down in the process. Yeah, I don't know. And, you know, maybe we'll never know. It just sort of is, it's an unfortunate situation. I'll be really interested to see how this investigation plays out. Because it seems incredibly clear that something untoward happened here.

also if you told me that like six weeks from now everybody just forgot this happened and nothing came of it that wouldn't shock me either so wouldn't shock me in the slightest which is is incredibly unfortunate for sure unfortunate yeah I mean imagine like a I'm trying to think of a solid comparison another sport I mean a football team goes out the line moves however much and then they just get blasted 49 nothing or something it would it would feel a little bit sketchy yeah So I think I had a sub bet on this one. Oh, I had a subbed. It's the curse of the sub-brop.

I think you talked to me into the curse of the sub-prop here. Cheers to the sub-brop, baby. Cheers to the sub-prop. I didn't happen with my book. I'm a little interested to see if any sports book stopped action on this, certainly paying out on Nurt and Beckoff ticket. Yeah. Just because, like, that wouldn't be entirely unreasonable to me if, like,

Draft Kings or Fanduil or somebody was like, yeah, this is shady and you had in, you suddenly dumped all this money on minus 450. I don't know if I feel good about that. Like, I could see sports books not honoring some of those tickets. So, I don't know if it's related, but Draft Kings took quite a while to pay out my Mario Batista bets. Different fight. I only had so much action on this card on Draft Kings itself.

But yeah, it took them to like the next. next day. I was like, man, if I don't, if I don't have this by Monday, I'm going to have to hit him up. I wonder if maybe there was a, there was a pause because of this fight. That wouldn't surprise me at all, honestly, because I am, it's just so shady that somebody had to be like, hey, we're, got a lot of late action pushed here because sports books and casinos know how that trends work. And this is one of the triggers to identify something like that. So, wouldn't shock me if they had took a day to kind of pay out on this whole car just to sort of take an internal look at their ducks in a row. Makes sense. Makes sense. That was UFC Vegas 64. We now move on to the big one. UFC 281 Madison Square Garden.

I also, Connor, I want to say, I respect you not mentioning that the Rodriguez Parley failed. Oh, oh, man. We wanted to talk about that. Marina Rodriguez is never getting entitled. shot. She got her chin blasted. She did not look great through the first two rounds regardless. And yeah, we said Marina Rodriguez at minus 205 was probably not a good value. It turns out it was terrible value. It was bad. Like I was looking back on it. I finished up like one unit. I was like, man, I could have just not made that Rodriguez bet. And I would have finished up like three units. So yeah, it was tough. Also, Daniel Rodriguez not getting it done. So, but like, you saw that Yeah, I watched, I watched most of the main card.

Oh, man, like it was, I had that Magni and I was freaking sweating it, man. I mean, 1919, going into the third, in my opinion, I think it was two judges had it 19, 19, 19, one had a 2018 Magni. And then he comes out, looks great in the beginning of the third. I'm like, we might get this done by decision. I had Rodriguez by decision. I think it was plus 2.25. And yeah, and then he just let him stand up.

and then 30 seconds later, the fight's over. Yeah, it was, after the first round, I was like, oh, man, this is, it was very clear to me, and I was obviously very wrong. It was like, oh, well, once Neil Magny has this round, things aren't going to get worse for him. He gets better as fights go on. So I took him with a pretty hefty bet because of where the odds were alive. And then after the second round, I was like, I've made a terrible mistake. All of the profit I was about to realize from Flywood Unders at the,

all gone. This is horrible. I was re-evaluating everything and then pulls it out in the third. So that was a roller coaster of a fight. But ultimately, it meant both Rodriguez is lost. And I always feel better about that, man. If I've got a parlay down, one, the over one and a half Rodriguez parley cashed. But if I have a parlay. It was a sketchy for a half second because I was cheering it on two to finish on a parlay. I was definitely up screaming at my TV when she had that, She had her back and it looked like she might get a choke in. It's a little sketchy, but, you know, cash. But then those straight Rodriguez parley, both legs fail.

And so I feel smarter. Instead of individually betting both of those people, I just tied them together and they both lost. So if you're going to lose a parlay, lose all the legs. It is the best way to do it. I can't decide which is worse losing the first leg of the parlay and then going on to see every other leg. hit with relative ease or getting to the final leg and then losing the final leg in ugly fashion. The first is definitely worse because the second one you should be buying out.

Like when you only have one leg to go, you should at least be hedging your bet. You at least get the thrill. You get the thrill too. Like you know, it's kind of going on that. And you're building energy. Somebody, I don't remember if you were clued in on this, somebody tweeted me over the weekend. prior to the main event and it hit six legs of a seven teamer and the last one was marina had you let it ride and i was like always hedge yeah and and then they obviously that worked out very well for

in that regard but i mean unless you have the utmost confidence like there's there's been times where like uh dante wilder fought a few weeks ago and the final leg was that fight doesn't go to a decision. I was like, I'm going to just let this one ride. I have a feeling. Let's run it. Yeah, ended in the first round. So, all right. U.S. Vegas 64, tie the bow on it. Speaking of utmost confidence, let's talk about a fight card where I have one bet that I feel good about. The Jed guarantee is supposedly making a reappearance on UFC 281. Let's get into it. Madison Square Garden, New York City. Some say it's the greatest city in the world. I do not. It's the only city that has you in it.

It's the only city that's got me in. I'm sitting in a skyscraper in downtown Manhattan right now. I can see the garden just a few blocks away. I can smell it. It looks beautiful. Very old building. Beautiful still. Smack in the middle of Manhattan.

World's most famous arena. They say when it gets loud enough, the whole block shakes, yada, yada, yada, all the cliches about it. But that's where it's going down. Sold out. You can tell us this week. you can be like, hey, you know, the block shook when that main event was going on. The block shook when the main event was going on. That's where it's all going down. It should be fantastic. I cannot wait for this one. And let's dive right into it. The main event.

Israel, Adesania, Alex Pereira, the middleweight championship of the world. This will be the third time they fought. You know, this is a storyline that will get beat into the ground and beat into our heads by the time Saturday rolls around. But I feel like we can't really overstate the potential that this fight has. I mean, the history of them, the talent that these guys have, the first two fights being competitive, close fights. And I went back and watched them and I could see almost the exact same thing happening here in the main event. I could see it being a close competitive fight where both fighter has their moments. Like, it could end up being a war. I'm hoping that's what it is. Madison Square Garden. So much is on the line, I really feel like

this fight has so much potential. Obviously, there could be letdowns. That's what happens sometimes in the UFC, but I'm going to be on pins and needles when they're making their walks. Yeah, man, this is, it's really, it's really interesting, really weird fight because on it's, it, one of the narratives, this fight isn't deserved. Alex Beheada really hasn't earned this title shot. But come fight night, that does not matter.

Nope. Because this is just fascinating. And it's great matchmaking. The UFC came here with the intention to make this fight when they signed him, and they got there on the quickest route possible. And I have a ton of questions. I don't have any good feeling about this fight whatsoever. I have one bet down. We'll get to the bet because it's not even a real bet.

So I am interested to hear, before we hop into the fight, do you have action here? I know you love main event action. I assume you do. Oh, yeah. Yeah, I got actions on a side. side in a total. Listen. I know the side. Yeah, I mean, I really enjoy Alex Pereira.

Love watching him fight. I think he's electric. I think this shit talking to her that he has been on right now leading up to this fight, the trolling that he has done on social media is artistic. I mean, it's been fantastic. Going to Times Square, taking a picture with the Elsa character, you know, running the simulation on the UFC game, posting clips of the last fight of his son. He has been really doing an excellent troll job. I've bet on him in his first three UFC fights have cashed all the tickets.

Obviously, that's why he's getting this title shot. Big fan of Alex Pereira. But the thing is, loyalties don't die so easy around here. I mean, I've been riding with Izzy for a much longer period of time. People talk about, man, his fights are so boring, such boring decisions. Not when you have money riding on him and not when he continues to cast. ticket after ticket. The side is Izzy.

I mean, I'm not going to sit here and give you a long soliloquy of why. I kind of feel like you. I have a ton of questions. I don't really feel confident in either side, but I'm riding with my guy, Izzy. See, I respect that. I cannot bet him. In my head, I think he should win this. This is, I think the value here is Paheda.

And, like, this is a total dogger pass bet. and it's the real i haven't made a bet on it because i can't get my head around doing it because i just don't there's so many unknowns for me even though we've seen him fight twice before and yes kickboxing not in a may but i think you can extrapolate a lot from it i have is he arguably won that first fight uh first fight's close i'm i'm happy saying either got won there's no real issue there the second fight, he was clearly winning until he got stoned. And that's the big problem for me here is, I've talked about a lot on this program, on other programs. I think that fighters do not pay, and far be it for me to tell one of the greatest fighters of all time is about this and you how to fight.

Because that seems real stupid to just say, I think you're fighting wrong, buddy. But I don't think fighters give enough credence to the war versus the battle. whereas the reason is he's been catching this criticism, his fights are boring, is because he's not taking risks. And that makes a ton of sense, right? Because your goal is to mitigate risk if you're the champion. Too much rides on having the belt. And so he is not going to give Jared Canineer more opportunities to do something

if he can stay in third gear and just, you know, manage everything. My issue, I think that that is a flawed approach to fighting, though. I said this way back in the day with George St. Pierre, as well. And truth be told, George St. Pierre almost lost to Carlos Condit for the exact reason I'm about to speak of, which is when you are fighting people, it feels safer and in the micro, maybe it is safer to consider every engagement as a highly risk involved and try to minimize as much of that as possible. The truth is, it's actually safer to finish people before they get to spend 25 minutes, because that's my big concern here.

Alex Beheada is incredibly dangerous. And yes, Izzy can defend most of it, right? And in a five-minute fight, I think he can stay safe for five minutes. But if you keep not taking the risks, quote-unquote, to finish your opponent, you're giving them a longer timeline to land something. And Jared Kennedy couldn't do anything. And so Izzy's way totally works. But my earlier point, George St. Pierre was letting people fight him for 25 minutes that he could have gotten out.

there and again, worked for him, but Carlos Conard kicked him in the head and almost finished him because George just kept letting the fight go on. I think there is a real value to being a finisher and to actively pursuing a finish instead of being entirely reserved, entirely defensive. And I have enormous questions on how this looks against Bejara, because it takes one with that dude. That dude, I legitimately think he might be the hardest puncher pound for pound in the sport. It doesn't just take one, everyone talks about the left hook, the left hand, the touch of death.

It doesn't just take that. I mean, he can also finish you with his right hand. He can also finish you with his knees. His limbs are just an arsenal of weaponry. It is, he is lethal. And I actually agree with you here. That's sort of what gives me pause is that I have it written down in my notes. The way that is he does fight so defensively sounds so risk averse, he, he,

He's looking to retain the belt. He's looking to fight as smart as possible. I think Alex Pereira is going to bring this fight to him, hell or high water. I mean, if you're going to bring the fight to the champ like this, you need to have this confidence. And who is going to have more confidence than the man who just puts everyone to sleep has already beat this dude twice, once by decision, and once by just icing him with boxing gloves on. I think the fight is going to be brought to him. and it does give me a little bit of pause on Izzy. Yeah, I think Beheada's, I'm unsure.

Everything in my head says that Peheda should bring the fight to him. I can also see this one being a bit of a feeling out process because Beharro doesn't rush and Izzy's going to be really defensive. And so it's just, I have questions, man. I got a lot of them. And I want to go back to the point of calling him the hardest puncher in MMA. Yeah, go ahead. Because the thing is, like, Francis Ngano is punches people harder than I've ever seen a human being punched somebody.

But when Francis and Ganu swings, you can see the energy and the force and the power that he is, he is trying to hurt somebody. Pahara thuds people and barely looks like he's flicking his wrist. Like he is, he must be the most densely boned human being alive because when he hits somebody, there is not a wind-up. There is not, it is just boop, and you're dead. And that is even harder to defend against that for 25 minutes. And that's ultimately where I'm talking myself into the Pajara bet, which I had not been made because in my head, Izzy is better.

He's technically more proficient, certainly more experienced in MMA. He has fought him twice and is going to know how to approach this. He was winning the second fight. Kickboxing isn't 25 minutes, And that I think is really the thing that that pulls me here is Beheras has 25 minutes to land on him, four ounce gloves. And is he is too defensive? And he's going to give him the full 25 minutes.

And at some point, you just can't be perfect defensively. It doesn't happen in MMA. Nobody is defensively perfect for that long forever. And so I've talked myself into it. I'm actually going to take Beheada because at plus 175, what's his KEO odds? I was going to say, I feel like KOs are. safe. I actually... I think I'm going to take plus two...

I think I'm going to take plus 275 on KO for Paheta, because I think... I don't think he's winning a decision over Izzy. That seems unlikely, right? That seems very unlikely to me. Though it is a possibility. Going back and watching the Silva fight, I mean, he found a lot of success without finishing Silva. I mean, maybe Silva's a little bit tougher.

I mean, I guess I can't even really say that because, I mean, Izzy has one loss on his MMA record and it's by decision. I just don't think Pajara is going to be able to land enough different offense to win rounds, to win three rounds out of five. I think a finish by Adasanya is alive. Oh, I think that's very alive because Pahedah is going to – I think he's more chance to do it this than he has recently because Pettah is going to make him fight. And when he fights, he can finish. Of course. That's sort of my argument is that everyone says he goes to decisions nonstop, which is true.

The majority of his fights, especially as champion, have been to a disqualification. decision, but it's not like we haven't seen him finish people. And finish people in brutal fashion when he does. I mean, the Costa was complete domination. The first Whitaker won was brutal, too. Like, he has that ability to do it. And I mean, obviously, when you're fighting on a championship level, look at John Jones as well. Like, you are going to much more decisions than you are when you're coming up in the ranks, you know, regional scene and contendership in the UFC. I just saw your face. What? What? happened over there on your end oh i just i just looked at the over under and i i did not realize that

the under four and a half was plus money so i'm going to be betting that for sure well here's the thing uh the two bets obviously otisanya is one i snag them you know at the beginning of the week i also snagged the under four and a half uh somewhat i feel like it's somewhat of a hedge a little bit because i feel like perera's best route to victory is by knocking out of sanya out but i think there's also a very live chance of a double hitter and Adasanya finishing Pereira. But seeing that under at Plus Money was surprising to me as well. Yeah, plus money, I'm definitely taking it because I do think this fight gets stopped because I think either Paheda is going to find the shot because Izzy is going to give him

too much time to do so. Or is he, if Pahedra, Pera is going to make this a fight? And when Izzy is forced into fights, unless you're Calvin Gastilum, who no mortal man can knock out, a finish is going to happen one way or the other, right? Like, that's, I think that that's just. I mean, I watched that Gasolm fight back. I mean, he gets knocked down three times in the fifth round. Like, how do you not just call it? That fight really probably should have been stopped.

But I was sitting Cade side with Sean Oshaddy for that one. Sick. Great journalist. Atlanta. that fight is it's the best fight I've ever seen live it's one of the five best fights of all time probably and I distinctly remember like after that fight

because like one the next fight up was Max versus Poy yes yeah yeah I actually looked over that card I you know Phillips arena or State Farm by then there's still Phillips I think oh sick so people don't remember that those were the top two fights of the year that Izzy Gaston was fight of the year.

Number two was Dustin Max. And I distinctly remember watching Dustin Max and being like, this fight's awesome. And I I'm already emotionally spent from the one before. But we all just kind of walked around like

dazed. Everybody in Presto was like, man, that was, we just watched something. And then we still had Dustin Max and was like, this fight is also incredible. There's nothing like when you just get back to back, just absolute bangers, especially when they're just long, long wars. It's unbelievable. I've yet to witness it in person.

The best fight that I've seen in person to this date is Amanda Serrano, Katie Taylor. And, like, wasn't completely dazed, but, like, I was emotionally spent after it. Like, I just remember that fifth round just, like, screaming my guts out, just like how crazy it was getting. But we're getting off track. One thing I do want to throw out to you. I love this because I also have a thing I want to throw out to you. I mean, is there like a, is there any world where this isn't just the straight kickboxing match? And like we see Adison you go for a takedown?

I hope not. Neither of these guys have landed a takedown yet near UFC careers. Nope. Or even attempted one. Here is what I would say in their careers ever because they came from kickboxing. So these guys have literally never gone for a taketown. So I mentioned that I have one bet on this fight before I picked up a couple as we talked through. I'm bringing it back, baby.

I looked at this fight and I thought the same thing you said. I said, is there any chance? No. But as we know, if all my instincts are wrong, the opposite must be true. So we're bringing back the Castanza here for Adasanya Pahara. the fight ends by submission at plus 900. I don't think that's big enough. I don't think that's big enough.

Well, if you picked either fighter, because originally I looked at it and Izzy's like plus 1,400 and Perez's like plus 2,500. And then I was like, eh, what if? I agree. It's not really big enough. But also, I just, what if it happens? You know, what if it happens? I know.

I know, dude. I'm the guy who called this. I looked at the Izzy sub-props and it was like plus 1,600. I was like, oh, my God, I'm not that big of a degenerate. Like, could you just imagine how cool it would be? But like, my sub-props aren't just like not hitting. They ain't even coming close. Yeah.

Well, the last one you made created a wormhole in the space time continuum where it also somehow involved potentially potential illegality in betting. That's what happens when I bet sub props. I mean, God, it'll be such a good meme if it hits. If I'm watching that fight on Saturday and like, Izzy gets his back and it's like, oh my God, he's going to choke him out. He's going to choke him out. I don't know what I'll do.

Like, I mean, I'll love it. Look, if all I'm saying is if Izzy drops Paeta, he should a thousand percent go to the ground and try and submit him. Like, he shouldn't be like, yes, peheda. to stand up. I know I dropped you still stand up. This is easily. So I'm taking I took a shot. Just a little baby

shot, not a full unit by any regard because that's just lighting money on fire. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, if I was going to put something on that, I'd put 0.1 units on it just for the hell of it. Yeah, I mean, it's a quarter unit because I still want to feel alive. He's not, he's not like, I mean, what we've

seen from his ground game, it's, it's not terrible. He has good takedown defense, as we've learned. Last thing I want to say on it, you mentioned it, like with the Gaslan fight, I mean, the Whitakers, the Costas, like, he will engage in wars. Like, he can have insane fights. It's the recency bias of the decisions lately of, you know, the Romero's, the leg kick cities, everything like that. Like, he can't have wars, and I will not be surprised if this ends up being a war. If Izzy wins a war with Alex Pereira, like the tides are going to turn on Twitter and everyone's going to be, you know, loving them up.

But like, just remember where you stood before this one. If you're putting out the leg kick memes, you know, run around the octagon, yada, yada, yada, yada. Don't turn your tune on Sunday to, you know, middleweight goat, XYZ, blah, blah, blah. I'm going to stay with it because be interesting, man. Like, be interesting. My issue with Izzy is not that he's fighting boring, though I don't love that. It's that, one, he's indignant about the fact that he's fighting boring. And this isn't a him problem.

This is just fighters in general. They can't take criticism. I'm like, you don't have to piss from my head and tell me it's random, bro. You fight with Kennedy or wasn't fun. Like, it was not an interesting, exciting fight. And you don't have to pretend it is. You can be like, yeah, you know, did what I had to do. Not the best effort.

You know, fans don't like it. I understand that. We'll try and get them next time. Like, you can, that is an approach that grown men could take, but that fighters seem incapable of. My issue is that this has happened repeatedly, and he just says the same thing beforehand, which is like, no, I'm going to, you know, before the cannoneer thing, he had some really corny ass line. Frozen like Elsa. No, that was, that was also there, but no, it was a corny ass line about, like, blade and vampires or I'm a vampire or some shit. I'm going to, and then he just does that.

Like, don't talk all that, all that grease in this if you ain't going to do anything about it, you know? This Fight Camp, it's a horror movie. He said it on the MMA hour. I was like, well, it's actually pretty sick. It's going to be violent. I want it to be a horror movie. We're going to take them to the deepest depths of the ocean and see who can swim. But then I saw a quote tweet from it from M.M.Junkie.

I was like, oh, we'll see if they give the MMA hour credit. He said the same thing on TMZ. I was like, damn. Oh, yeah. He just repeats the same thing. I was like, damn, bro. Yeah. has his bookmark thing and like it's that just always grates on me because like if you're going

to say it do it like talk about a bee about it when jesson gagey says i am going to try and create car crashes he does not go and leg kick people at a distance and and work a jab he creates car crashes like talk about it be about it is my only real issue with him and this and then to also be indignant when people are like yeah i wouldn't dope it's uh well i got to I got a quote for you later on that we can dive into on, you know, a fighter that you might not be a big of a fan of. But I'm team Izzy until the wheels fall off. And then once the wheels fall off, I'm still Team Izzy. The guy has won me copious amounts of money.

I've obviously met him in person a couple times. I mean, he's a great dude in person to talk to him. He was a great guy. Yeah, the swag, you know, the showmanship. Like, I was just going back through pictures. The walkout, walking out is the undertaker with the urn that said, Jared. on it. I mean, that's classic stuff. Now, do I wish

he had went out there and just blasted his head into that row? It would have been really cool if he had actually put Jared in that urn. But I just like, I'm such a sucker for the showmanship. Like, I love the walkouts like that. Like, that's why, like, I have, I like Sean O'Malley. Like, I love, like, the, the putting

the thought into things and, you know, things like that. So, yeah, I got a Z, you got Perreira, we're both on the under. Can't wait. Cannot wait. I have Paeta by KO is what I'm going to take. I'm pretty sure I'm just going to take KEO instead of the because you get an extra

hundred points of value there. That feels like that's totally worth it. And I've got the Izzy Paheta finishes by sub-flagher. Love that. You've got questions. I've got questions. Israel and Asana and Alex Perrida have answers come Saturday night. Cannot wait for it.

Let's keep it rolling. Let's go to the co-main event. Only spent 38 minutes on last week's card in the main event. So let's get right into the co-main. I don't have much to say about a lot of these other fights that's cool. Boarding for Flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Ugh, what?

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It is Carla. Sparza going up against Wiley Zhang. Right now you can get Zhang for minus 320. Asparza coming back. 265 fight goes minus 105, fight does not minus 125. The floor is yours. I've been made aware that this is the Jed guarantee coming into play here. I have two bets on this fight. I will have a third bet one later.

The first bet I am taking Wadijang inside the distance at even money, plus 100. Kind of shocks me that that's the number here. You know the number that shocks me more, though, is that she is only minus 320 because that makes no friggin' sense, Connor. The line has moved in favor of a spars, actually. I don't, like, unless this is another situation where there's an injury that we aren't being told about or whatever, I cannot fathom what the hell is going on here. because Wiley Zhang is going to kill this woman.

Like it is. I took, as soon, we were talked about it last week when I told you this. I just assumed that she would be at least minus 500, if not heavier. And I looked at it and the lion was minus, I don't know, $350 or something like that. And so I immediately just put a huge number of units on it. We're leaving enough units back to make other wages on this card. And when we're done here and I've done making my bets, this is the second time I've ever having done it the first time Valentina Shivchenko

I'm going all in on Wiley Zhang because I just don't see a world where barring a freak injury like where she loses this fight you can argue that Carlos Spars is a better wrestler I'm not entirely sure that's actually true as far as MMA wrestling goes but I'm at least willing to even concede that point. Zhang is so much more physically dominant than her. And like, Asparza has never dealt well with people who are more athletic than her. And I don't know that there is a more athletic woman in the sport and certainly not in this division.

Because I think people just forget, when we talk about Wiley-Jang, because of the fights with Rose, now that shook out. I think we sort of underestimate her, but we're talking about a woman who, thumped Jessica Androge, who is one of the most athletic fighters in the world. And Carla Esparza is maybe a plus athlete for straw weight?

Like, I'm not even sure. She's not a negative athlete, but she's not high on the athletic scale. And every time she's faced a good athlete, Tatiana Suarez, Cardio Gidella, Joani and J. Chick, those were all just problems for her. The one good athlete she's beaten is Rosamahunis.

and I personally am taking absolutely nothing away from the Rose win other than Carly. Well, I was going to say the Rose Zhang 2 rounds 4 and 5. Nope. It gives you no pause. No. Okay. Jean is no, she is nowhere near the fighter that Wiley Zhang is. Like, Jan Shaan is just not. You know, the Rose.

No, no, no, I'm talking about the Rose. was when Rose took her down in rounds four and five. Oh, oh, Roe-Jean. Gotcha. I thought you were talking Rose Jan for the last. No. No, because in part, a lot of that was the element of surprise in that I don't think Zhang was prepared for Rose to go for wrestling.

If Asparza can get top position, maybe she can hold on. I also just don't think so realistically because I think Sean could just be like, no, I'm a way better athlete than you. going to, she didn't Derek Lewis her way up. Just be like, cool, what are you going to do? Jump home by back and submit me. That's not a thing that's going to happen here. So I think this is one-way traffic immediately.

I love Zhang's performance against Yawanna and Jacek, one of the best fighters of all time in their rematch, she just killed that woman. Yeah, it's never close. You can talk, you can, you know, make the argument that Yorana's fallen off a little bit. Maybe some of that's true. I would pick Yowana to absolutely thump up. up Carla tomorrow. Like that's,

she's, she maybe fell off some, but she didn't fall off enough for that fight to be explained by, by Yohanna losing an edge. It is why Lejean is still getting better. She is just an unbelievable physical presence. And she is going to make that incredibly clear on Saturday. I,

it's, it's my second all in a bet ever for a reason. I will be flabbergasted if Asparza wins this. I mean, I'm with you. Like, let's, let's be clear here. This is, you know, I won't say it with as much bravado as you did. It's similar to the Islam fight, but I'm essentially with you step for step. I mean, she's more powerful. She has more volume. She's more aggressive. Like, she's just physically dominant in this fight. And if it stays standing, if it's not just a lay and prey for Asparza, which I don't really see it being, it, it, I really just, I see it being one-way traffic, like you said. Like, I think that the most likely outcome is Jean finishing as far as at some point in this fight. I have Zhang parlayed up a few times over, and I have, fight does not go to a decision at minus 125.

Yeah, it is. I mean, she's minus 320 right now. That's a 76% win probability. If they fought 100 times, like a lot of. of my bets are looking for a 5 to 10% edge overwin probabilities, you know, like, this guy's a 35%, but I think he wins four out of six, you know, like looking for those edges to think it's at least worth value. I mean, they fought 100 times.

How many times do you think John wins this fight? It's at least 90. If you look at the Asparza run to a title, take the-bad, man. Take the Janjan fight of it out of it. 2928 went over Virina Janjarova, majority decision over Alexa Grasso, split decision over Michelle Waterson, split decision over a Marina Rodriguez.

Probably didn't deserve. Probably didn't deserve. I mean, you have one majority decision and then three split decisions, including your title win. Like, it is not the most impressive run to a title. And if it ends, on Saturday against Wiley Zhang.

I mean, it will be just like a blip on the radar. Like, it'll be like she never even had it. Yeah. She's got the wedding pictures, though. Yeah, I mean, you can't take it away from her. I know. She cemented. I think she probably would have made her way into the Hall of Fame anyway as the first ever

strawweight champion, even though people in the know at the time all knew that she deserve is not a word used strongly in this sport. but like she wasn't the best straw weight in the world when she won the championship originally. Everybody knew that the actual best one was Yawani and J. Chick and Claudia Godelia, their first fight that determined who was going to fight the winner coming off tough, that that person was probably the actual best. And it played that way out. But you can't take that away from her.

I think that would have gotten her into the Hall of Fame. But by reclaiming the belt, she is a surefire Hall of Famer at this point. She's a two-time champion. I don't think there's any way that she doesn't make. make it in. And that's all well and good. And she deserves her flowers. But there is she is maybe, it's a Michael Bissping situation. She's like realistically maybe the fifth best straw in the world. And while the Zhang is at worst number three, at worst number three. So I think she can kill her. I'm with you. I think this is Zhang all day. So we'll see on Saturday night. Not as many questions

on this one, but there will be answers. round three as far as has already racked up 15 minutes of control time we we sweating a little bit no oh i just don't even think i genuinely cannot believe that to be possible but listen i just like if she wins the first three rounds cleanly sure i'll be sweating because at that point it feels like she knows something that i didn't but i just always tried to doctor strange these scenarios when when you go all in just because there's nothing worse than just going incredibly heavy on a bet and then you're in like oh yeah you're halfway through the third round you're halfway through the third round and you're like oh my god i didn't really factor this in and this is not

going how i want to now we got live line it's like uh minus 130 asparza plus one 10 jong and you're like oh god what have i done like oh yeah i as you recall when i did this yeah valentina got to plus money i took her at plus money live well i was better bet than me betting my bank roll on everybody But she cashed for both of us. So, you know, it's not a smart thing to do. I'm not here to defend myself as a wise and sage gambler. I know I would never do that for myself either. But it's what I looked at this.

It was like, I don't think I'm going to find better value this year on a bet. So taking it. All right. Let's do it. Let's keep it rolling. Main card, lightweight bout Dustin Porrier versus Michael Chandler. Right now you can have Porre for minus 2.10. Chandler for plus 180 over under set at one and a half over minus 140 under plus

110. You got action here? I do. You have feelings about this fight, I assume. I don't know how I feel about this fight, if we're being honest. The top two, like I told you at the top of this and in the pre-show, I was just like, I don't feel good about any bets other than the Wiley-Zhang bet. It's the only bet that I feel really good in.

I do not personally like Michael Chandler. I've made that incredibly clear on basically every program of MMAFighton.com has put out in the past two years. It is, I can no longer deny that he is both at least a decent fighter and really fun to watch. So fun. You know he's going to bring. The quote that I was going to bring up that I alluded to earlier was Michael Chandler. I'm going in there to either make a highlight or to be made a highlight. Yeah, and that's dope because that's literally the exact opposite of entire Bellator career.

So it took four fights and then I finally have come around to be like, well, he's at least doing the thing he says, right? Because previously when he was saying all these dumb things and yelling and screaming C at the top or whatever, I was just like, you're, dude, you got knocked out by a featherweight and you weren't that fun or interesting. You had some good fights, certainly in Bellator, but you also had a lot of duds. And that has not been the case. He has turned it on in the UFC. And that's where we're at. This fight puts me in a really unfortunate position of, I believe, the value is betting on Michael Chandler here. And so I took a bet on Michael Chandler, and I don't feel good about it.

Because my head says that Dustin Porre is a better fighter. but both of these men are old. I'm just going to throw it out there. They're both pretty old as far as the division goes and mileage certainly goes. I think we are in for a pretty clear drop off from both of them. If we haven't seen it already, that really hangs over me on this one. I think there's a really strong case to be made that both of these dudes are well past their prime, but because of the way the lightweight division works right now,

we haven't seen it because they are also just fighting other dudes who are way past their prime. I mean, Pori, the Olivaa fight, both them fought Olivera recently. Olivera, I would say still in his prime, obviously, just lost the belt. They both lost that fight, so we're clear. They both lost to Charles Olivera. But before that, Porier fought McGregor twice, Dan Hooker, who we'll talk about later, but not even sure is good, and he went hammering tongs with Dan Hooker, Habib, you know, a lot of great names, but his relevant wins recently are sus, to say the least, as far as quality goes.

Michael Chandler, you know, his UFC run is Dan Hooker, again, not the greatest win in hindsight, losses to Gagee and Oliver, great fights, and then he punted Tony Ferguson, who has been washed for years and nobody is ready to admit that until very recently. So yeah that's only Ferguson wind does not age well. Yeah. And it did I thought it wasn't that good at the time. This spectacular K.O. But Tony's been washed forever. I've been trying to tell people. And that's where I'm at here. It was like, I have no idea how good these dudes are actually in the with regard to the lightweight division because the best things you can say about them is they hurt Charles Olivera, who is, you know, the second best lightweight in the world.

Kudos to that. Also, I think Charles Olivera can be hurt by like everybody in the top 15 because that's who he is. He gets hurt, but he comes back and that's how that works. So it's really hard to feel confident in this fight because I just don't actually think we know enough about where these two guys are in their athletic and their physical in their fighting primes right now. But weighing that out is even my stance comes down.

to Chandler's plus 185. There's a lot of numbers there. He is the better wrestler. We have seen Porreier. Not a great defensive wrestler. The solid one, not a great one. I think Porreier on the feet is a substantially better defensive fighter, and that's really where he can make hay and have the edge, especially because Chandler's is

a lot of just power and explosion on the feet without much else behind it. But in my head, Porier probably is able to keep this upright enough and just work a jab, have a superior depth of boxing talent to win this fight. But I can't, every time I'm betting on Mike against Michael Chandler, I'm looking like an asshole for the most part. So I'm, I'm just going to back him with the plus money because it feels like he, this is at least a 50, this is a 50, 50 fight and he's plus 185 or whatever. Yeah, I don't mind that bet at all.

I mean, I was actually surprised when Porier opened at minus 180 and then he dropped steadily to like minus 220. I mean, if Michael Chandler does come out and uses wrestling chops, he is an incredibly live dog. Whether he's going to- If he's wrestling, man. Whether he's going to do that or not is yet to be seen. I do feel like on the tail end of his career, he has sort of committed to this firefight mentality that he gets into. I mean, just going back and watching the Ferguson one, he lost that round on every judge's scorecard.

He got dropped. Oh, for sure. It looked like he was hurt numerous times. And now, looking back on that, doing that to Tony Ferguson is not a great look. Charles Levera obviously dropped, finished. Justin Gachie dropped. Felt like that fight could have been called at any moment. Felt like Gachie maybe took off the gas a little bit just because of how brutal it was, similar to like RDA and Moycano.

And just when I look at it, I just feel like if this fight stays standing, you talked about the boxing acumen of Dustin Poree, I feel like he is going to be. to be able to find success throughout the fight. But I didn't want to play Porreier straight at minus 210. What I did do is take him by KO at plus 165, 10 of his last 14 wins or by knockout. I think if this turns into a firefight, if this turns into a brawl, someone is going to be put out. I'm going to lean on the side of the guy that is defensively sound when it comes to the boxing, who has the KO power, who has shown that time and time again on the feet throughout his UFC career. So I wanted to take something on it.

I took Porreier by K.O. I also did in a little violence parlay, a little sprinkle on top that the fight doesn't go to a decision at minus 220. I just expect it to be fireworks and I don't think it can just be a blood fest, you know, just ridiculous, you know, crazy high pace for 15 minutes like the Gaichi Chandler fight. I think if these guys come out here swinging, I think eventually someone will get dropped. Could be totally wrong. Maybe Chandler comes out here. Exercise is the old wrestling. And I, uh, and I, uh, and I, lose both bets, but for now I'm on Poria by Keo and fight doesn't go to a decision. I like Poirier by Keo because the number... That's really why I took it. I don't think I like the fight goes the decision at that price. Now, fight doesn't go. Yeah, it doesn't go. I think that that number is pretty close to right because I agree with you.

I think the most likely outcome here is a finish, but it's hard for me to just engage. She is just a car crash made person and go in 15. even a fight that could have argued been stopped. It feels like there's still a world where they can somehow hang tight for 15. So I don't know if I love that price, but certainly like the bet on Porre by Keo. I think that's a – I do think that's the most likely outcome for the fight in general. Well, we'll see what happens.

Hopefully the price does come to pay. I hope Porier wins. It would make me really – that's the other part of this bet, too, is when I bet Chandler at 185, I was like, well, it's one of those bets if Poyer wins, I won't be sad. Just be like, yeah, it's actually, that makes me happy because if I have to hear Michael Chandler just scream into the microphone one more time after a fight, it can drive me insane. You'll be joining the watch along for that, huh? I will be.

I was informed yesterday. I'll be joining the watchlong for that and for the co-main event. For your love for Michael Chandler and for your jet guarantee. To see if I have to sweat the, the, the showdown. Zhang fight, which I think will be great viewing content for you. If that fight gets close, you are going to see a whole new side of me. Oh, it's going to be an absolute blast. All right, let's keep it going.

Main card, men's bantamway bow, Frankie Edgar going up against... I hate this fight. Chris Gutierrez. Yeah, I mean, I looked at this one. I lean Gutierrez. I'm not laying minus 2.15 with a guy that got 10-8ed by Cody Durdin with the exact path to victory that Frankie Edgar is probably going to exercise using the wrestling. Not trusting Frankie Edgar at plus 185, unfortunately.

He's been caoed in four of his five losses. So I just stayed away from this one. I'm away from this one, but only just because everything you said is right. The responsible adult man in me says, why would you possibly bet this? And then the irresponsible D-Gen in me says, you know, sometimes you just got to place money on the vibes. And even though you believe this fight is incredibly stupid and horrible matchmaking and just bad all around, sometimes stupid things, nobody gets punished for the dumb thing.

And the good outcome happens. And Frankie Edgar gets to go out with a win and at plus 185, don't you want to take a shot? And then I have to remind myself, I'm actually not really a Frankie Edgar fan. So I don't actually care if you win. and so I don't need to be monetarily tied to him, but that is the angel and devil just back and forth tugging me to place a bet or don't. It is a thousand percent of dog or pass for me.

I agree. Like, I, Gutierrez fine fighter or whatever, but. But do you want to lay minus 215 with someone that if a takedown happens, that could essentially end the round? No, no, and that's the hugest thing. And the other, because again, the Cody Durden example is a really good one. his wins aren't great. They're not bad.

Like, Dona Bacchari is a fine win. I don't know if that's a good win. Philippa Picloras, fine win, also a splitty. It's, I cannot lay him at that price with any level of confidence. And so absolute doggar pass, and I'm going to be honest with you, maybe the best thing I can do with my all-in bet is then I won't, because there are like three other bets on this car. where I am in very similar situations.

And me going all in at least takes those off the table of me just taking underdog shots here because I have been struggling with this one. I love when you just got one bet. Like sometimes I'm like, man, why do I have so much action on this thing? But it is just a degenerate way. So it is. Sounds like we're both staying away. Maybe you pull the trigger.

I'm staying away for now. Hopefully I have the discipline to stay away forever. But if this number moves even further, if Frankie gets like, plus 200, I'm taking a shot at plus two. Like, that's just, I can't not. Be sick to watch him win to NMSG. Yeah, it's the vibes, you know? It's his last fight, you know, he's going to fight like there's no tomorrow.

He's going to leave it all out there. One thing that I wanted to just loop back to Porie Chandler, you talked about it potentially going long. A parlay piece that I found that I love, even though the price is minus 650, over a half round. Oh, okay. Yeah, I like that. Minus 650, I like that.

Also, speaking of things I like, love the mug, dogs back to number one. I mean, it was just... Even money to win the Natty this year. I mean, it was just... It is. Give us TCU in the first round. We'll see you in L.A.

It was a big weekend, man. Flyweight unders were back. E.J. Thumps, Tennessee. Bama. Down goes. Bama, just everything that could happen that was good, happened. Everything that could happen good. It did happen.

All right, let's keep it rolling. Main card, lightweight bowed, Dan Hooker taking on Claudio Pueyes. Right now, Hooker can be had for minus 165. The Prince of Peru coming back at plus 140 over under set at two and a half, under minus 145, over plus 115. Uh, you alluded to not trusting Dan Hooker earlier. I'm trusting Dan Hooker here. Oh, I am too, sort of, but we'll get into mine. I have an exact obet on this one.

So here's my thinking. Claudio Poyas, this is a step-up in competition form, however you want to view it. Clay Guida and Chris Goetzmacher are not Dan Hooker. On the flip side, you know, Claudio Poyas has won five straight. That is not an easy task at the UFC level. Hooker, flip side, lost four of his last five. But if you look at the competition that he's been fighting, I would say this is a fairly large step down in competition.

For sure. Last fight out, Arnold Allen, top five featherweight, future champion. Top one featherweight, baby. Top one featherweight. I mean, I was going to say, guys, I'm waiting on the king to be crowned there in the featherweight division, obviously besides Alex Wolkenovsky. Islam Machashev, short notice. Can you even blame him for that? I mean, took no damage, got in, got out, got a big payday to the lightweight king.

Nasrot, just a few weeks before that Islam demolition. He dominated Nasrod. I mean, he looked great in that fight. It was easy work for him. 3026 on one of the judges' scorecard. Michael Channert, top five lightweight, Dustin Porre, top five lightweight. Claudio Puez isn't really in that category. And when you just look at the fight, in my opinion,

Claudio Puez has to get this to the ground and has to either just dominate. dominate the ground game or get a submission because I think if this stays standing Dan Hooker is going to make this look easy. Yeah, I don't have a great breakdown here, right? Like, I think you, if this stays on the feet, it's Hookers fight to win.

Puez is a little sneaky. Hooker's got big long legs, you know. Maybe Puez gets a leg lock, that won't shock me. I can't, I think if I were to bet straight, if I could only pick one, I think I would take Hooker because the price still seems okay. But instead, for whatever reason, and you know sometimes you just have a bet.

It just calls to you or whatever. The moment I looked at this fight, I didn't do tape breakdown this. I didn't look at anything. I don't have any numbers to back this up. But something in the universe spoke to me and it said, Jed, Dan Hooker is going to knock this man out in the second round. And as it The round exacted too Yeah it was it was just that

There was no I don't have any explanation for it But I looked at that fight And I was just like Yep I don't know First round maybe it's slightly competitive Hooker wins Second rounds

I was gonna find a knee We're gonna be done here I So I just bet it I didn't you don't argue With the universe When the universe is calling you somewhere So again if you're tailing

I don't have any reason for you to tail this This is not based on science tape breakdown. I'm not seeing something in the game. Just like the first thing I looked at was second round TKO. Boom. And so I bet it. Hooker. KOT, KO, TKO, round two plus 750.

A little half unit on it. Throw it down to see what happens. That's the universe whispering to you and who am I. And you mentioned tailing. You know, you can tail me. You can fade me. Just whatever you do, just do not blame me. Because we're giving these out for free.

and we are not in any way. We will never, never charge you for these bets. I actually hate when people call me a tout because I am not a tout. I will never charge for these. If you want to use my information and make a bet on that, sure. If you want to just straight fade me, you can do that too. I'm completely okay with it. I am just presenting you the information on why I made the bets that I made,

and we try to do it in a fun way. Another thing about Hooker, 78% take down defense over a pretty huge, sample size. I like that for our boy heading in, heading into Saturday. So hookers a play, hooker round 2-0. I mean, the universe. The stars align. What, what more can you say? If this happens, I'm going to start fine doing that a lot more. I'm just going to let the universe guide me. A lot of the times when my gut is like, this is going to happen, it happens. And I don't listen every time and I end up regretting it. So I'm glad you pulled the trigger on that one. Dude, I'm not even kidding.

I don't feel confident in this one because how can you feel confident? I feel better about that bet than any other bet on this card besides saying. Because every other one, I'm like, I don't know. I was like, I don't know. That one, yeah, second round. Yeah, that's it. That's it. Rip it.

All right, that is the main card. We have some prelims. We've got to rip through already an hour five deep into this guy. But that's what you get on these pay-per-view cards. Let's start it off. This pay-per-view, I want to throw this out here because I don't think this is a very stupid and shallow way to look at cards. Every fighter on this event has a Wikipedia page. And I'm not saying that means the fight card is good, but this never happens

anymore. And that's how you know that you are, to some extent, getting really quality fights top to bottom. That's why we're going to spend these time talking about these fights, because it's a big card, big event, good fights. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners, I started wondering, could I get Fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious wool throw for my sister.

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so you can over-share your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy. Want honey-crisp apples that are firm, green, and definitely not Macintosh like last year when you lost the fall bake-off

to perfect Penelopee Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over-deliver. Service fees exclusions in terms apply. Speaking of great fights, the pre-lim main event.

Hell of a fight. Let's do it. Hanato Moikano taking on Brad Redel. Right now, Moikano can be had for minus 120. Radell coming back at even money over under set at two and a half, minus one 15. Each way, banger. I mean, this is going to be a sick fight, a beautiful way to end the prelims. I don't know if you picked up on anything yet, but I'm riding with Brad Riddell.

You just go and see KB all the way down, eh? It's, yeah, you were going to catch on to it eventually. Yeah, I'm taking Brad Riddell. Does the ground game of Moikano worry me? Absolutely. But let's make an argument. Let's put out why I can, you know, responsibly back Brad Rettel here, I guess, in a sense. I mean, Moikano is coming off the beating of a lifetime.

I know it was short notice the RDA, but I mean, that thing should have been stopped many times over. And just if he can keep it standing, we've seen Riddell have a semblance of a ground game. If he can keep it standing, you know, some people point to the Calvin Cater fight for Moikano, how he outbound out there. I still think Riddell has a wide margin of advantage on the feet.

And something that's like crazy about Moikano, I think it's 23 professional fights, 22 professional fights. never had a knockout. I did not know that. Okay. No knockouts. And I looked at his number.

He's plus 900 to get a knockout here. I was like, why is that not like plus 4,000? But anyway, the Muay background of Redell. I just think he's the more complete package on the feet. And I'm going to trust him to keep it on the feet for the majority of the fight. And, you know, stay away from the slick ground game of Moycano, escape the submissions. You know, it's not the most compelling argument. I mean, it's not the most persuasive thing here.

I'm riding with city kickboxing. What more do you want me to say? Well, I do want you to say one more thing. And it is because I am also on Brad Radell. I don't think this is like, I think this is a fine bet. I don't think it's a great bet. I would like him to be higher on the plus money. I thought I'd get him at plus 120.

He's just even plus 100. I think this is a 50-50 fight. and so maybe I'm not getting any value with Redella plus 100, but I kind of knew where you were going, kind of wanted us to have a little plus money action together. I'm not losing value on it, and the line just didn't seem to be moving for him anymore. So I was finally like, plus 100's enough.

I was hoping to get a little bit more, but I agree with most of what you said. I trust Eugene Behrman implicitly to craft great game plans. and I just, if Moecona gets takedowns, yeah, we're probably screwed. But I think Redell is really good. And I kind of feel like Moirano has maybe been an overachiever in his career to somewhat. I mean, you look at the losses, it's all to top guys. And in all of those fights, I felt really, really confident he wasn't going to win.

You know, it wasn't like, this guy just couldn't quite get there was like, no, the fact that he's getting this fight is, maybe a little bit better than he probably ever deserved isn't the right word but if you get what I'm trying to say I think he's just outperforms what he has outperformed holistically what I would have thought for his career whereas I think Redella's had a tough run right because this dude was awesome but he ran into two

absolute buzz saws. Haffaille Fiziv one of the five best lightweights in the world pretty soon like he's not their technique because lightweights so deep but Fiziv is a guy who's going to be relevant in this division at the very, very top and challenge for a title. And I could not be higher on Jalen Turner. He is arguably my favorite prospect in the lightweight division. I love that.

Wasn't Islamakov. Big on the tarantula as well. Love Jalen Turner. If this dude can stay making lightweight, I think he is going to get a belt. Like I think that's where it is. Maybe he can't because he's so big and has to be a welterweight. But those are two incredibly excusable losses.

and before that, I think Redell looked good and was improving. So I'm with you, plus money taking the shot. Yeah, let's do it. Let's hopefully keep the train rolling with... Let's touch God this time, boys. With Quake there. All right, let's keep it moving on the prelims. Dominic Reyes taking on.

Ryan's span right now. Reyes can be had for minus 205. Span coming back plus 175 over under set at minus 115 for under 1.5 and over 1.5. So I'll keep mine quick. I'll keep it brief. I took the under one and a half of even money, and I took the fight does not go to a decision at minus 275. I just...

I'm looking at both of those. Okay. I just see this fight, you know, probably getting chaotic, as many Ryan Span fights tend to do. Seven of his 10 UFC fights have ended in the first round. Six of Reyes' nine UFC fights have not seen the third round. Big dudes finishing capabilities. But on the flip side of that, they can also get finished.

Yeah, I just think someone's going to get put out, whether it be Reyes. Like, I mean, some of the shots Reyes was landing on Prohashka is putting any mortal out. But we've learned that Prohashka might not be mortal after the things that he's done. I think Reyes catches Span with one of those. I think he's putting him flat on his back. And then, yeah, Span can find a way to get this to the ground. Reyes, pretty decent takedown defense. I could see him locking up a choke or something.

Yeah, I don't have too much to add. I looked at both of those bets. I didn't pull the trigger on anything yet. Because I couldn't quite figure out if I thought under one and a half. I think under one and a half scares me too much, but fight doesn't go the distance using that as a parlay piece. I think I like that. And I don't have any parlays at the moment.

So I maybe start, maybe that'll be a building block to build one as we go on. I did take Ryan Span, though, plus 175. Tasty. I have a, I mentioned earlier with the micro, with Chandler, I don't feel great about some of these things, but like, I, in my head, Dominic Reyes should win this fight because X, Y, and Z. I don't, he might be broken, man, because, and I think this is, this is such a critical

fight for him, and I'm fascinated by it, because he hasn't won in three years. And even though I thought he beat John Jones, right? I thought he should have won that fight. He didn't officially win that fight. The Jan Blahawich fight, horrific performance and a bad loss. Yeri, I can see how maybe his career is just done now. We don't know it because he comes so close to the mountaintop with John Jones but doesn't get that validation.

And then he is supposed to become the champion when John leaves and gets bolted. And then like you said, he is punching Yeri with his best shot. and Yere's still there and then Yerey highlight real chaos him for the century. And it's just, I don't know the mental fortitude to bounce back from that requires a lot. And that's, I mean, some of that's probably why we haven't seen him in a year. And then you go back before that and you look at his run and his career looks dangerously like a guy who overachieved by a lot, a lot. right you know jared canineer middleweight ovin st pru super mercurial fighter and not a necessarily good one vulcanus demure a guy honestly had a similar career to what dominic ray is doing

chaos chos chris widened light heavyweight what does that performance mean does unbelievably against john jones and then he's kind of here and so it's i have no idea what we're looking at i know what we're getting with ryan span and i don't think ryan span is a world beater but he is a solid dude he is a good wrestler when he wants to be he hits really hard and i think there's just an absolute world where he wins this fight and because of the three years without winning because of the year-long layoff i can't back i can't put money on rea's with any level of confidence and so i think that means that ryan span is at least worth the play at the odds that he's currently sitting at you know at plus 175 so i took a shot on it i don't feel good about it but that's the

of my UFC 281, frankly. I love it. I love it. I mean, honestly, just, you know, with how excited I am for this card, the energy in New York City this week, a winning week would just be a beautiful cherry on top. It doesn't matter by how much. So we'll take what we can get. Let's keep it rolling here on the prelims. It's a women's flyweight bout. Aaron Blanchfield taking on the meatball right now. Blanchefield can be had 4-390. McCann coming back at plus 320, over under, set at 2.5, over minus 1.95, under plus 160. Yeah, I got Blanchefield in a parley, started last week with Miranda Maverick, ends this week with Blanchefield and Zhang Wei Li. The Lara Procopio fight just last year for McCann.

Procopio goes seven of nine on takedowns, just racks up control time the entire way and ends up getting an easy unanimous decision. It's what Blanchfield did to Miranda Maverick a couple years ago. use the wrestling, use the grappling. Molly McCann has 46% take-down defense over her career. I will agree that if it stays on the feet, McCann is live. We've obviously seen the power that she holds at this division in her last few fights,

but I can't imagine Blanchefield in one of the biggest spots of her career so far is going to come out and look to swing and bang with Molly McCann. Do you have any concerns whatsoever that the the procopio fight that preceded Mala McCann learning the deadly spinning back elbow technique that has led to her previous two wins. One of your favorite moves, I believe, a plus 3,500 cashed on that? Just a monster move.

And she's two for two spinning back elbows. If she comes out and just spinning back elbows there in Blanchfield, I mean, it's... It'll be the funniest thing that's ever... I'll just have to live in that world and accept that. I rate Aaron Blanchefield just a touch higher than Hannah Goldie. Just a touch. I think Aaron Blanchfield is the best prospect, maybe in all of women's MMA.

I like her, though, as the best prospect in this division over the other people who are getting that shine. Mano Fioro, who I don't even know if you can call her prospects, and she's probably... Contender is what we call Minotan Firo around here. baby. Yeah, you know, any of those, I like Aaron Blanchfield as a better prospect than that. I also have her in, I ever in the same open parlay. I opened with one leg last week. And then I've got, it's a three leg.

I still have two legs open. Blanchfield took that second step. I don't really know it was going to be the third because I could put Zhang in there, but since I'm already going all in on her, I don't feel like I should do that. May just stay open. Maybe I'll see something else that I feel like this week. I need a third leg for this parley 1.320,

Porie Chandler, over a half round. Right now it's at minus 196. I need one more leg to give me closer to even money. I'm useless for you here in this regard then. I'm going to find something. I was maybe thinking the Sungwu Choi

Mike Drizano fight over one and a half, but Draft Kings hasn't released that number yet. Yeah, maybe. I have no action on most, a lot of the to cry after this. I really like the over one and a, the over half round only being minus 650 is, is speaking to me.

Feels good. Feel good about Jean-Mondes 322. What do you have for, for Reyes span doesn't go the distance? Is that tagged into something? That's, yeah, I've already got that in two parlayas. Oh, okay. Yeah, don't, don't over expose it.

Yeah, I don't, I don't want to overexpose myself. So, uh, I'm going to find something. I might just wait, But I like this Zhang at minus 320 right now. Let me throw another bet out there that I didn't see. I actually didn't remember to look again before we recorded it because yesterday best fight odds was not showing me UFC 281 stuff for some reason. And my book and other books don't seem to have it up.

How do you feel about potentially a Blanchefield by submission prop? Because I'm, I got to say, that one, I want to be. I don't want to see, I haven't seen a number yet, but that is the one I'm waiting to see drop because. Listen, I don't hate the look of that because of Molly McCann's struggles on the mat. I guess if, I mean, I guess if Tyler Santos couldn't do it, I don't know. I'm just such a- Jillian Robertson could, though.

That is a fact. That is a fact. I'm just such a mush with these sub-props. I kind of eyed view. That's what I was trying to tell you because I wanted to, I just want to keep rope. you into them. I kind of eyed the under two and a half, if I'm being honest. I mean, you know, it's not, it's a women's flyweight fight.

I was going to say, it is a flyway fight. Like, are we going Blanchfield sub or McCann knockout? Like, you could do worse. Plus one. I'm not on this one. I'm not on this one, but I just, you know. God bless America. I want to see what a sub problem is like.

John Wayley in real time down to minus 325. I imagine she's just going to continue to go down. She's minus 320 when we started the show, so she went back up a little bit. That's what I'm saying. She's minus 325 now. And the parlay that I just had went from minus 196 to minus 200. Oh, that's damn shame. Do I just play the 200 straight?

I don't know, man. Maybe. Yeah, maybe. Just do that. That's fine. It's not great, but it's not awful. Then I got four units of exposure on Jean-Wei Lane. I'm okay with that.

I'm going to have a lot more than four, baby. And you give us a number. Is there a number? to be had on that? On my number of units? Yeah. Well, right now I have half of my bank account stored into it. And at the end of this, it'll probably end up being like 70% of it.

Jesus. I mean, that's talking you're talking about like these are nerds. It's great, though, because when it hits, it means even if I totally turf everything else, I don't have that bad a week. And it's going to be sick that you're going to do it live on YouTube, on our watch along and if it loses it'll be cinematic theater because we will both be in a bad place. It's going to be unbelievable theater for you. Yeah, we will both be in a bad place. All right, we still have four, four prelims to get into. Let's just run through them. Middleway about,

Andre Petroski, Wellington, Termin. Right now, Petroski can be had for minus 195, termine coming back, plus 165. You tell me what you've got here because I've got nothing. I don't have a bet here. I wanted to talk through it because I have an almost bet in the same vein of Span and Chandler. Well, and Terman is plus 170 right now? 165, plus 165, yeah. Plus 165, and that feels wrong. I feel like this fight is close to 50-50,

and I don't know if I'm comfortable betting my money on it, but, like, Tremon, Petroski is just not good on the feet. And I'm not here to tell you the one, Terman is very good on the feet because it's not, but I do think he's better than Petroski on the feet. Pachroski needs takedowns. Terman's pretty good at stopping takedowns, and he is a dangerous, you know, grappler. I mean, he does have the coming off that submission over Sarkhanov.

The other side of that is Sirkronov was certainly getting the better of the grappling exchanges before that arm bar just kind of popped out of nowhere, but it just, I feel like Terman is better on the feet and can hold his own in the grappling. and I think Petros I just, I think a lot of it is I don't believe in Petrosky. And there's also certainly some of it that is, Termin's 26, you know, 25, 26. Like, he's at that age where you expect big leaps up in comp, like in his game, his development, you know, training with Glover Tashara and the squad as they, you know, they're prepared here for this big fight and the main event. I just kind of want to place a bet on him, but I can't decide if it's. stupid to bet on Wellington Tournament.

I mean, he struggled that first round against Misha, now out of the UFC. He won a splitie against Sam Alvey, now out of the UFC, and then Bruno Silva lost, Andrew Sanchez lost. Marcus Perez closer than it should have been, I guess, and I lost to Carl Roverson. Yeah, it's not a great record. That's why I don't feel great about putting money on him. Andrei Petroski is Hens O'Gracy, which is fallen on tough times lately. Yeah, and it's just like, how much do I care about you beating Nick Maximoff? Also out of the UFC now.

This, to me, I saw it. I looked over it for like five minutes. I was like, yeah, I'm just going to stay away from this one. I'm just, you know. I think that's a smart thing. And I think I'm going to try and be disciplined here, the same way I'm trying to be disciplined with Frank. but I don't know this line moves closer

I'm just going to take it underdog shot all right I love it and I wish you the best of luck Wellington tournament I mean be a big day for Danbury Connecticut if Termin and Pereira walk out as winners big day for Danbury Connecticut all right let's keep it rolling lightweight bout ottman

azatar going up against Matt for Vola right now for Vola minus 105 Azatar minus 115 line has swung he opened the which was surprising to me as they were slated to fight at UFC 257 prior to Potato Gate. And Otman was a round of minus 160 favorite. And that one, obviously time off. But since then, for Volus one and we saw him get starched in, you know, within the 10 seconds against Terrence McKinney.

Yeah, I thought about playing Otman as a dog. Seems like everyone's on him. And I was like, maybe I could stand it and go Fravola. And then I was like, you know what? I'm just going to ride with the under here. I took the under two and a half at minus 170. I took the fight, does not go to a decision. So, I mean, we talk about pound for pound hardest hitters.

Adman hasn't had enough time to prove it, but the dude has put your lights all the way out type power. I mean, if you just watch his last knockout, I mean, it is death touch type stuff. We have seen for Vola struggle in his UFC career with his chin, knocked out. twice, dropped five times. But even with those past, you know, speed bumps with that, he is not afraid to engage in a brawl. I mean, if you go watch that first round against Gennaro Valdez, all it took was the first round.

Slobber knocker. Like, I mean, these dudes were just throwing. About Des, Des got dropped like five times. I want to say, like, the broadcast team just started counting them. They were like, oh, drop three times. Oh, four. Oh, five now. Like, it was just like they were just thrown.

I mean, it was just the UFC fan's dream this fight. Probably would not be the wisest move to stand in brawl with Otman. I mean, it's just not the wisest move, especially when you have the wrestling chops. And we have seen Otman get taken down on the regional scene. But I don't know. In front of MSG, he's a New York guy, steamroller. I kind of feel like he's going to come in here and make this one fun.

And I just think someone's going to get put out, whether it's Otman or, you know, Frivolta taking him down and maybe pounding him out. I'm riding on the under here. What's that number? Minus 170 on the under two and a half. And then I parlayed up. The fight doesn't go up minus two. 20. I mean, a Zay-Tair has been to one decision in his career.

10 of his 13 have ended in the first round. Prevola, six of his 13 have ended in the first round. it's really the only way I see this going to a decision if for Volga just comes in here just goes wrestling and just lays in praise doesn't even try the the ground and pound from the top position. I just, I don't know if he's going to have that type of success and I don't even know if he's going to come in with that game plan. So, yeah, I think it's going to be a fun fight and I'm going to ride the under. This is another one. I don't have a bet down, but I do have Otman circled.

I have some trepidation for two real reasons. One, we talked about Jalen Turner and how I think of him, Favola, has that W. Lover Turner. I was going to say, last loss for Jalen Turner, Matt Fervolta. Yeah. Steam roller. Which is a little surprising still, but, you know, that's how it goes.

The other thing, I'm in two years since he's fought over two years. That's a lot of trepidation to want to, to want to lay the lumber with him. I think he's going to win this fight. The world is on Atman, too. The line is moving a lot, and it just feels like everyone I see is like, yeah, Otman, Dalgods, first round knockout. If he were dog odds still, I would take him at Dalgads. I'm going to, again, try and be disciplined, but this one calls to me as well.

Atman getting the W here and really starting to establish himself as like a legitimate guy in the lightweight division, another guy who's just a killer who's somebody you've got to be concerned about. But I think I can stay away. As long as these odds stay negative, which I think they will, it's easier to avoid this one. If you're a plus,

I'd for sure be betting. There's no doubt they're going to stay negative. I think he's just going to continue to move. I could see Otman closing around like minus 140 if I'm being on us with you. Let's keep it rolling, though. Two fights to go. Women's strawweight bout.

Carolina, I mean, you're a wizard with this last name. Kovalkavich. Kovalkavich going up against Silvana Gomez-Warez right now you can get Kovalkavich for minus 120 Gomez-Ware's coming back at plus 100 You tell me bro Well so remember when previously

You were like Oh Dan Hooker you know he He's lost a million of his most recent fights But look at the Ronnie faced or whatever Well you know Karelii Kovovic also lost a million of recent fights But coming off a great performance in Phileas Heerig.

Jessica Pene, very good fighter. Janja Nannan, Alexa Grasso, Michelle Waterson, Jessica and Drage. Those are all entirely reasonable losses to face. Change camps, went through a whole thing where she wasn't sure if she was still going to fight

and comes out, puts on her best performance in years with the Herig win. I have always been a Kovalakovich stand. I'm going to stay a Kovalcovic stand. and it's easier to be so because I don't think Solana Gomez-Wars is very good.

I don't... A lot of people on Gomez-Wars this week, though. I don't really get it because every time she's faced a good fighter and by that I mean every time she's faced a fighter with the Wikipedia page, she's basically lost. Love the Wikipedia page standard. It's just...

Paulina Battaglio, not like a great fighter, lost. Aaron Olipski, very solid fighter, lost. Lupi Godinez, Vanessa Demopoulos, like, lost. I think Kovo Kavich doesn't get enough credit for being a better grappler than she is, because you think of her as a high-volume striker. I think on the feet, Gomez is maybe a little, not maybe, she's a more dangerous puncher, but Kovalkavich is incredibly durable, incredibly tough. I mean, we're talking about a woman who just has been knocked out once, and it was

Jessica and Drodge. and I got to tell you, Sivana Gomez Juarez, she ain't just a good drudge as far as that goes. Kovo Kavich is super durable, super tough, super gritty.

She's good in the clinch. I think she's better grappler. She has more volume. I think she has more ways to win. And you talked about, you know, making some picks with your heart and beat your fandom.

I've just loved Kovokovic for years. I picked her to beat Rosnami Eunice when they fought in Atlanta at 2-01. She pulled off that upset. been riding with her ever since. I'm a taker again at minus 120. I love it. I love it, man. I have not seen many people on Kovalkavich this week. So I salute you standing by your guns and going down with sheep. I mean, that's what we do. And that's what I'm going to continue to do as we get into this last fight. Because you tell me, I have nothing here. I know where you're going. And I kind of want

to join you, but I also just don't think I can have it in me. I'm riding with the black jag, baby. a light heavyweight bout. Carlos Olberg is taking on Nikolai, Nega Mariano. Over one and a half, set at over, under, set at one and a half. I'm getting too excited just to talk about Carlos Olberg. Over minus 155, under plus 125, Oldberg minus 120, Nica Mariano, even money plus 100. Yeah, where does Carlos Oldberg train? That'd be city kickboxing for you.

Black Jag, formerly known as Ladies Night. Here's the cell I'll make to you. Negamariano does not really move his head off the center line. He makes up for it with a block chin. Yeah, like it doesn't need to when you've got the chin that he's got. But minus 1.9 strikes per minute differential. And if Carlos Olberg has anything going for him other than those just dashing good looks, Solomon Burson on Monday

holds up. TV's not doing too much magic for that guy. It's impressive what he's putting out there. He's got volume. He's got quite a bit of it, 8.91 strikes per minute.

It's a step-up in competition for Allberg, but I like this matchup. I think he's going to be able to land shots. Nagamariano take downs somewhat of a threat. I feel like he has a little bit

more of a wrestling reputation than is actually true. But yeah, I mean, it's city kickboxing. We're riding with Oldberg. We're riding with Redell. We're riding with Hooker. We're riding with Adasania. And on top of that, we're parlaying them all.

It's the city kickboxing parlay. Oh, that's what I would be here you said. You already know it's going down. We're doing it for the Kiwis. We're doing it for the boys down under. Plus, 864 for me. I'm throwing a half unit on it. Just throwing that out there.

4.3 would be the winnings. I mean, there's, This team can become immortalized in my eyes if they pull this off on Saturday. See, that's the way you sell me on it is just, it's not this fight, but this fight is part of the CKB. Of a huge gimmick. Someone on Twitter was like plus 1,300. I was like, where are you getting those lines out? Yeah.

Because I got them about as good as you can get. And we're looking at plus 864. If you get it right now on DK, it's plus 789. So it's, you're not going to do better than that. I am, paradoxically, for the gimmick of it. I'm going to throw a little quarter unit down on the CKB parlay, despite the fact that I have some direct bets in confrontation with this. But you know me.

If I'm going to parlay, at least give me a gimmick. It's a fun gimmick. And the thing I wanted to talk about this fight was in the context of the parlay. And it's mainly for you because by the time this pod comes up, most people will probably first watch the MMA hour. It's going to be a great episode of this today. Monday is already great. Monday, you had the whole CKB crew there.

If today, when y'all do the parley pals, I'll be honest, I'll be pretty disappointed if the parley pals isn't just the KB parley. I know that you guys are on losing streak, but you need to change the momentum, change the energy, harness the good, block the bad, go ride with your team. Ride with this. I think you should pitch. that to the parley pals before you guys get your picks just say guys want to throw it out there

what do you eat four legs for ckb fighters 281 what do you guys say i have thought about this i have thought about this i'm not going to lie to you i'm not i'm not trying to force you to doing it i'm just saying a little part of me will be sad if that's not what the parley pales is this week yeah i can't make any promises i've already got a half unit do i want to get it out there see how they feel about it you know just throw it out pitch it to him see what it comes back. I mean, Aussie, Aussie, Aussie is not the correct term there because it's a New Zealand gym. But whatever I can say to feel like I'm in the land down under, I'm going to say because I cannot wait for Saturday. And I just wanted to go long. I just want it to go long. Like it'll be,

I'll be so disappointed if Olbert goes out there and loses. I mean, I will just say that if you do make this happen, you guys can then perform the Haka by the New Zealand All Blacks. And nobody has ever felt more powerful than performing the Haka. So I mean, it's, I'm just channel all that energy into a positive mindset and let's go CKB Parlay. Let's go CKB Parlay. I cannot wait for it. All right.

My slate is as follows. Top to bottom. Israel out of Sonia money line minus 164. got it earlier this week. Adasanya Pereira under four and a half plus 140. Wiley Asparza, fight does not go, minus 125. Porier by Keo plus 165. Hooker money line minus 152.

He's coming back. He's at like minus 140 now. Still plenty of time to get in on that. Bradredell money line plus 108. Reyes span under one and a half plus 100. Favola, Azitar, under two and a half minus 170. Carlos Olberg minus 115. Parley, did a little violence.

from Volosa Tere does not go. Reyes Span does not go minus 102. Adam Porre Chandler does not go plus 189. And then finishing from last week, Miranda Maverick, Aaron Blanchfield, Zhang Wei Li, minus 102 as well. And then, of course, the aforementioned KB Parley plus 864. I took Beheada by KO plus 275. Adasanya and Beheada by submission.

either of them gets a sub plus 900 just a couple of flyers there we've got jong inside the distance even money we've got uh michael chanler plus 185 we have got dan hooker by k o tkoh round two plus 750 ryan span plus 175 brad redell plus 100 uh adasania pehrara under four and a half i haven't bet that yet but you sold me on that one connor so i'm joining you on that one Aaron Blanchfield, second leg of an open parlay with Miranda Maverick from last week. Still got to find a third. Do that next week. But at minus 390.

Then I've got some liens considering Frankie Edgar, considering Wellington Termin, considering Atman IZTar, trying to be disciplined and not betting them, but I'm a DJ and we all know what's going to end up happening probably. KB Parlay. And then the big one, baby, all in, shoving all the units. Everything I have left over. I've already got half my units on it. while they jang straight shoving whatever's left over i think it's going to end up being like 25

units or something jesus why so you're saying whatever winnings that you acquire leading up no no no what whatever is in the bank account before i finalize my bet so before i make the determinations on termine isatar thing whenever i'm i'm locked into this is all i'm betting i'm just take the rest of it put it on on jang let it ride baby love it. Yes, that's what I was asking. That's what I was asking. That's fantastic. I mean, that's going to be great theater. I can't wait to ride it with you because it's, it's looking like my exposure to Zhang is growing by the minute. So it should be great. It should be a fantastic card. The city's on fire for it. Everywhere I go, people are just like,

I just hear them, you know, on the subway UFC 281, you know, going to the coffee shops, 281. You're going to be at the garden, even though that's a Boston accent, you know, still working on these northeastern things. It is what it is, but it should be a fantastic card. We've got questions. The UFC's got answers come Saturday night. I cannot wait for it. That's about it for us. Just a quick, tight hour 40, one of the longer ones, but I think it was worthwhile in this venture to try and find some winners on this UFC 281 card. Next week, UFC Vegas 65, the train does not stop a rolling Sergey

You did get a break after that but first they're going to make us do a heavyweight over bet on Derek Lewis which will be that might be an over half round overbet which could be great Sergei Pavlovich as well

it's going to be one and a half and it's going to be a sweat baby oh god it's going to be or it's not going to be a sweat at all and it ends in like the first 60 seconds you say a week off I say PFO world championships on Black Friday

Well, tough to argue that logic. Are we going to do a show? We should do a show on the PFL World Championship. Let's do it. I'm going to be there because it's so jealous of you. I'm going to be there. I'm going to watch a bunch of million-dollar fights on Black Friday right after the USA England World Cup game, going to be electric. I already have numerous bets down, so I'm happy to do a show.

Do you? Oh, if you already have numerous, then we're definitely doing it. I mean, lines have been out for a while. Yeah. They have been. Which I was impressed by the BFL getting lines out. So good for them in that regard. You want me to know my biggest disappointment? Big Apple Burgos off the card.

Oh, yeah. Lock. It was such a lock. I'm so disappointed. Big Apple Burgos could never have not been a lock there. I mean, it was just. But now you get to watch Ante DeLaja or Matea Sheffel win a million dollars. So.

I mean, that's just. By being the 40th best heavyweight in the world. Yeah, I think I'm already down on Rob Wilkinson. Brendan Lugnain. I love, got a ride log. Got a ride log. Got a ride. Yeah, so it should be fantastic.

That's it. We can worry about that later this month. For now, UFC 281 is in front of us, and we have to see how we do there. We'll see you next week. UFC Vegas 65. Doesn't get any better than Lewis Pavlovich. It is, Sergei. Is it Sergey Spieback?

I believe it's Spivok. Got my. My Sergei's mixed up there. Yeah, and those are very different fights, by the way. Very. Pavlovich would be awesome. It is Pavlovich. It is Pavlovich.

It's Spivok, according to the UFC right now. Wow, damn it. I'm looking at Best Fight odds, and it says Pavlovich. That's why I'm... Oh, no. Sergei Pavlovich is fighting tight Tuivasa. Sorry, I'm too focused on UFC 281. That's going to be another sweaty heavy wit over Pavlovich, Tuvarez.

We'll get to that when we get there. All right, I'm done talking now. See everybody next week. Love you guys.