MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Can Jairzinho Rozenstruik Pull A Derrick Lewis On Alexander Volkov? | UFC Vegas 56 Best Bets

Episode Date: June 1, 2022

After a rare week off, the No Bets Barred crew returns to help spice up an otherwise lackluster card the only way they know how: Placing wagers. Riding high from bashing the bookies at UFC Vegas 55, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew look to do the same for UFC Vegas 56. Conner is the master of the single bet this week, betting four fighters straight up, while Jed is living and dying with the prop bets. More importantly though, the boys find themselves with another Wolfpack Wager. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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We are back after a week off with another episode of No Betts Bard. I'm Connor Birx, and we've got you for the next 12 straight weeks, I believe it is. We will get UFC events every single Saturday. Starting with this week, we've got UFC Vegas 56.

Volkov versus Rosenstrike. Long time, no talk, Chad. How we doing, man? I know, man. And it was strange to have a week off. I mean, it is nice because we're never getting one again, basically. So we're going for the grind. But it was also just an unfortunate week to have a week off because I think we had a, I mean, I can't speak for you, though.

I feel confident when I say this, knowing the bets you made, we had a damn fine week last time we were doing this. A damn fine week. Yeah, I finished up a little over seven units at one point going into the. Ponsonivio fight. I was perfect on the night. Lost Pons, lost home, unfortunately, but I still cashed a parlay on the home fight with the over in that one. So there was no complaints

for me. You're now 2 and O head to head though, man. I know. Look, some people, Holly Home may disagree, but Kettlen Vieira got the W and made it a great, great weekend for me. I finished up five and a half

units and really just, I mean, the Philippic Colars was the only bet afterwards or I was like, that was a tough one. Just a tough out. Chase looked a lot better. Things happened,

you know, but you take the L, you move on. And otherwise, you know, just cashing bets up and down the card. It felt won all of my, all of my other straight wagers.

So it was a great, great week. Yeah, Chase did look fantastic in that one. And, you know, even on the home side, I wouldn't call, like, robbery on that or anything.

It was a super close fight. But I did see an, image that was getting like thrown around Twitter and everything. It was the like the media scorecards. And like, you know, it was like so many home people, people chose home. And then after seeing the image probably like six or seven times, I looked closer at the names. And there it is. Scoring it for Ketland Vieira, one of the two people that scored it for Kavana Vieira, Jed Michoud. I was just like, I wonder why he scored it for old KV there. Because you should have won. Look, like you, we talked about it a lot last week on like,

other pods and stuff. But everybody at the MMA fighting team, MMA fighting, great website. Go check it out if you haven't already. But everybody on the M.A. fighting team were all like, I think Holly Home won. And then, like, A.K. Lee did a robbery review immediately and changed his mind. I was like, actually, no, Ketland V.R. won that fight. Everybody came around. You just all, you all got bamboozled by the mystique of Holly Home and her ability to hold the fighter

against defense and do nothing for long protracted periods. And look, if Holly Holman won that fight, if she had gotten the scores, I wouldn't have complained. I thought Vieira won, but it was a close fight. But, you know, that's not what happened. And even if she had won, given how close that fight was and where the odds were at, I still would have felt really good about getting Vieira basically. Yeah, I was going to say, I mean, no matter what, when it's going to the scorecards in that

situation where it's so close that you really don't know what's going to happen, like when I was watching it on my phone and I had it up to my ear to hear the final scorecard. I was like, of course, it's a split. I had no idea what they were going to say for the third judge. And in that situation, dude, you want to be holding the plus 200 rather than the minus 220. See, that was where we both made a huge mistake because I think hindsight 2020 obviously, but very clearly, that was always going to be a splity. We should have just taken like, I don't know why it never crossed my mind. It was just like, uh, you just forgot about it.

Clearly that was going to be a splity. And we should have just had action down on that and cashed a nice, juicy split decision. I mean, that would have been fantastic. Like if we were cool like that, but unfortunately, we were not. We were cool enough to what? Combined 12 units up on the weekend. So we can't really complain there, especially on a card like that. Hopefully we can find similar results here this weekend.

UFC Vegas. It's going to be tougher. I'm going to level with you. listeners we got a one-week hiatus and we are not coming back to the strongest card I've ever seen it's last few weeks man it was slim pickings out there this week I'm I'm really interested we obviously you know we we don't exchange bets beforehand but I know what you do have I know the fights you're playing here I'm interested to see where you're out with some of these and especially because I I my action is very narrow this

week I'm only dealing with a couple of fights this week Yeah, I'm not too overexposed on this one. There's a couple spots that I like, but I am keeping it pretty light on this card. So let's kick it off. The main event, it's a heavyweight bout. Alexander Volkov going up against Jarzino Rosenstrike. So for me, I'll just kick it off. I do not have a side on this one, but I do like some of the overs here. So I'm taking a parlay piece with fight completes round one. I grabbed that at minus 375. And then I took an individual play of fight completes round two. at minus 175. So when Rise and Strike, KOs Volkov in the first round, just know that I'm going to be hurting miserably. But in all seriousness, if you look at the two sides,

Volkov, no first round finishes in 12 UFC fights, only three times. Has he not seen the third round? And then Rosenstrike, obviously he's much more of the K.O. threat in this fight, but Volkov has proven durability. In a 13-year, 44-fight career,

he's been knocked out twice, and it's by, you know, really big knockout artists and Battalion Minnikova and Derek Lewis, and the Lewis one was with 11 seconds left in the fight. I know he got subbed by Tom Aspen all the last time out, but I don't really worry about a Rosenstrike submission here. So when it comes to the knockout,

I don't really see Volkov getting knocked out in one of the first two rounds by Rosenstrike, and then I don't really see Volkov finishing Rosenstrike himself. Rosenstrike, he's not the most active fighter when he's in there. He's pretty low volume. Volkov's got the huge height advantage. He's got a big reach advantage. think we'll be able to maintain the distance.

I can't speak for the later rounds. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a finish in round four or five, but I think we at least get to round three in this one. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I won't say that I don't hate it. I have no idea. I don't feel any level of confidence with the overseer. I mean, my assumption is that those are fair bets for me,

just because everything you're saying is pretty true. Volkov is pretty durable. But that being said, you know, I'm a Junior Rosenstrike is a much more technically sound striker, more accomplished kickboxer than Derek Lewis and hits really hard as well. Probably not the raw power that the Black Beast has, but dude can hit really hard and he has more crafty ways to set that up. I do have action here, but this is mainly a value play. I don't feel wildly confident either end of this. I think this is close to a 50-50 fight as a result.

I like the underdog odds on Rosenstrike. He's sitting at plus 135, but I'm not taking those because I think that that's just a dumb bet. Because why would you take Rosenstrike at plus 135 as a straight underdog when literally all of his wins in the UFC have come by knockout, and you can get Rosenstrike by KOT, KO at plus 215. So, I mean, I wouldn't hate an underdog bet here just because I think this is a 50-50 prop. But given, I mean, just given the tenor of how Rosenstrike fights, the man has literally, I think he has never, he has one decision win in his entire career. Everything else is knockouts.

And that's just who he is. That decision was a three-round fight as well. This is going to be five. I think, Yairzino, he is either going to go out on his show. shield or, I'm not going to put Volkov out on his shield, or he is going to not be able to close the distance and kind of get jabbed up. Maybe Volkov even goes for some takedowns because he has done that a little bit before. But, you know, I think that that's easily the best value that this fight offers. And also, this is a much less scientific way of doing things. But Rosenstrike is doing this

really fun thing where he alternates wins and losses and his last fight uh it's like the last five or six fights he has just alternated uh wins and losses last fight pretty dominant loss to curtis blades and so looking to rebound volkov coming off either a terrible performance against tom aspinall or just a sensational performance from tommy aspinall or a bit of both i mean it could be both but uh coming off that, I feel like he might, that gave me a lot of pause. And so give me the really athletic guy, a guy who hits really hard, guy who I think is a more technically proficient striker, even though he has much less volume. And the plus money, that feels like a good value bet to me. I'm actually in 100% agreement with you. When I was looking at the sides, I strongly considered

maybe making a play on Rosenstrike. I ended up not with the props. I didn't want to get too over exposed on this one. And you taking it by chaos, I'm honestly shocked. I didn't even look at it, the difference between his money line and his chaos. It shouldn't be any different. I don't. Dude, I mean, he's not winning by submission. There's a zero percent chance.

There is just like, they fight this fight a hundred times. Let's say there's a world where Rosenstrike wins this fight a hundred times, 95, 96 out of 100. It's by knockout. Like, I just can't see this dude winning a decision. It's just, I mean, it's just the only, we talked about it the other week. Caitlin Chukagian to win was like minus one something, minus 150. And then Caitlin Chukagin by decision was plus 120.

It was like, well, that's dumb. Just, yes. The only way she wins is this way. And there's clearly an inefficiency. And I know that that's, it's not a huge difference, you know, 2.15 to 135, but it's also a huge difference. You know, that's at 10 point, 10 percentage points, essentially. And that just seems insane, given everything we know about this dude. Yes, Alexander Volkov's a really tough dude.

He's only been knocked out twice in his career. But, I mean, this is heavyweight. We're talking about a dude who hits really hard. And that's, I would say that Yerziniu Rosenstrike hits harder than Batali Minnikov. Like, I think that that's not a super controversial statement. So, again, this bet could easily fail because I could see Volkov just kind of doing a poor man, Cyril Gan. Right. And kind of staying away and picking them apart, maybe mixing in some takedowns.

But I just like the value that I'm getting there. So I'm happy to take a play on it. And if you do take Volkov, you're probably going to have 25 minutes. You know, Volkov gets it done, especially by decision, you're going to have 25 minutes. Of every time that Rosenstrike comes in and gets close, it's going to make you nervous. That is for sure. Look, if you're going to take Volkov, just take Volkov by decision at plus 165. I don't think anyone should feel wildly confident about laying minus money on Volkov.

And like we said, like he's, I mean, he has a little bit more of a range than the Iarzino has in this fight. Like he could maybe take him down and pound him out. But that's unlikely because Curtis Blades couldn't do the damn thing against Yerzino. And Volkov isn't a submission guy. So if you want to be on the Volkov side, I can't fault you for it. I think that that's a, like I said, I think this fight is pretty close to 50-50. But I think the outcomes here are also 50-50 in that it's either a Volkov decision or it's a Rosenstrike K-O.

And so if you want to be on one side of those, I would strongly suggest those be the bets you take. I'm with you, man. And for my sake, hopefully it goes longer rather than like a Rosenstrike, K-O round one. So we will see. All right. Co-main event. It's a featherweight bout. Dan Iiege going up against Mofsar Evlov.

For me, I did grab this one. as soon as it opened. Mosaar opened up at minus 200. I took it there, but I would still use Mofsar as a parlay piece in this one. I mean, for me, the game plan is simple. You need to wrestle. If he stands and strikes with a guy like Dan Ike,

I think his chances of winning are significantly less than if he goes with trying to take Yge down. We've seen Ike struggle with the grappling before. I mean, go back and watch the Korean zombie fight. I mean, he was controlled for essentially half the fight in that one. Korean zombie pretty much did what he wanted to. Overall, in his UFC career, he's only going to. We've got a 55% take down defense.

You know what Mofar is going to do coming in here. He's going to try and take it to the ground. Also, once Mofsar does get it to the ground, he's typically pretty active. He's not just going to lay in prayer on you. So I like him to rack up the points and get a victory by decision here over Ega. I'm with you all the way on this one. Well, not all the way, but I'm with you at 99% of the way. So I didn't take him early because I'm always doing these things pretty quickly before we record.

Same kind of week. I think what you're saying about Moussar as a parley piece, spot on. But I'm also going to take a prop here for much the same reasoning as the main event, right? I, I, I've won five fights in a row inside the Octagon, and all five of those have come by decision. Danny Yeg has literally never been finished in his entire career. He's fought some really good dudes. I think the world of Moussar, what he has is at his potential. central, but he's proven not to be a huge finisher, and IGA has proven to be very difficult to

finish. And so for me, it's the same thing, you know, like I love, I love Moves to get a win, you know, at minus 400 what he's at. You know, it's about an 80% win prop. I think that's still that's still parlay value, but instead, I'm just taking him by decision at minus 200. I mean, the gulf there between those two numbers is huge, and I, for the life of me, cannot figure it why. The only thing I can think is that Danny Gay, you know, they're starting to think that Igay's a little past his prime, but I mean, this dude's only 30. Like, it's not like he's old, old.

Yeah, he's, he got handled pretty convincingly by Chenzing Jung and Josh Himitt. Fair. But again, he went to the cards in both of them, you know. He is a really tough guy to put away, and Movesar is not proven to be a huge finisher. So that line just seemed super out of whack to me. I wanted to be in the Mowalsar game, and this is a way I can be in it at what I think is really great value. So I took him just, I took Evel by decision at minus 200.

I just have a straight bet on that, you know, and I feel pretty good on it. I've got it for double unit so I can win one unit essentially and feel really solid about that bet. I don't see how I can keep this upright. and I similarly don't see how Movesar is going to get a finish. I'm with you, man. I'm with you step for step on that. I think it's going to end up being a Movesar Evlisov decision victory.

So we're in Lock, step there for the co-main event. All right, let's keep it rolling with the main card, a featherweight bout, Mike Trezano going up against Lucas Almeida. I don't have a play on this one personally. I think Mike Trisano is probably going to win the fight. Not enough times out of 10, though, for me to play him in minus 210. Last time out he got pieced apart pretty bad by me and hekeem. So I wouldn't love playing him at minus 210. Lucas Almeida. Sure he hasn't fought the same competition as Trisano, but he's no

slouch himself 13 won his career. So I think Trisano probably wins, but I don't want to play him at minus 210. Yeah, I would not bet this fight. I don't have any great read on this because I feel a lot like you. I know this is boring. This might be a boring episode. Sorry, guys, but this is a lot of these fights are fights where, and we're going to talk about it very soon, where there is not enough for me to feel confident. There's not enough tape out there for me to feel confident about a side and action, a place to be, or in places where there is tape, they're just clear holes or deficiencies. Is there something where I'm just like, I don't, I don't really know what's going to go on here. And like, sure, I think Trasano should probably win this.

But he's, I mean, Almeida is, has a lot of signs for things that would make him a good underdog. Like, he's a finisher. Trisano is not, you know, he had four of his last five fights have gone to decision. And Almeida is a guy who is going to get you out of there if he's going to win. That sort of offensive potency is great for upsets. And so I don't have a great feeling on this. if I was going to place a bet, the only bet I kind of found that I could have been interested was placing an overbet, just because I think that this fight, Trisano has proven to be relatively

durable. I think that this fight will probably last a little longer, but I'm staying away for sure, man. I'm with you, dude. It's unfortunate when we have six main card fights, and there's quite a few that I actually want to stay away from. Yeah, dude. I am a... Well, I'll just, I'll peel the curtain back. I don't have any real action for the rest of the main card. I got one more play. I got one more play. Well, I hope it's this next fight because I will be fascinated if it is.

It is not this next fight. Let's keep it rolling with the women's flyway bout out. Polyana Botella going up against Corrine Silva. Yeah, I have in my notes right here. I am staying far away from this fight. One side, you can play the, you can either, fade the Dana-White in Tennessee or W-Ton or you could fade the UFC fighter that's one in three in our last four fights like yes like not good I wouldn't be surprised if either fight wins I mean

I think the odds reflect that I don't like when I make a bet I want to feel like at least somewhat strongly or feel like I'm getting good value with this coin flip odds coin flip fight I don't know who's going to win I'm not making a play on it this is uh I mean it's everything you said right like I don't straight up I could not find video of Korean Silver to watch. Like I, because she was on the contender series, but Fight Pass would not allow me to watch either that fight individually or that episode of Contenders series. They do that. I swear to God, I've noticed like a trend where I do.

It has happened a few times to me. It's always the most recent fight. Fight Pass won't let me watch it. It's, it's, I don't know, man. It was just very frustrating as I'm trying to go back and watch tape. because I kind of I want to fade polyamatoa here like I want to be on the other side of her but I cannot in good conscience place a bet on someone I've literally I know I've seen this fight because I usually watch a contender series but there's so much of it I can't remember that

off the top of my head and so I can't feel any level of confidence in what I'm doing here I'm being said like if I was going to bet it kind of the one that would be interesting to me is as Silva by sub because she is a very good grappler. Batelio, you know, has some, is a bit exploitable there. But again, I'm saying she's a good grappler based primarily on things I've read because I haven't watched her fight. And so if I haven't watched you fight, how can I in good conscience put money down on you? And also, if the internet doesn't have videos of you fighting for me to watch, why are you on

the main card of a fight night? Like that is especially we're going to get to it at the very end of this when one of the best prospects in women's MMA is fighting on the the curtain jerker. But you've got this fight with a person who literally cannot see having ever fought before. It boggles my mind and I'm staying away for sure. Yeah, I mean, not only do I not have any interest in betting it, I really don't have a ton of interest in watching it. It really is. Like, I didn't, I didn't even think about that until you just mentioned it. Like, why is it on the made card?

Why is this a main card fight? Makes absolutely no sense because, like, this should be Aaron Blanchfield, right? Like, the Bollyanna Battalion-O-Cil fight, that fight makes a ton more sense as the curtain-jerker. Like, all right, here's a, I'll say, established UFC fighter because she's fought, like, I don't know, six or seven times, something like that. But here is a fighter who has been in the organization. here is somebody coming off contender series who we think something about and that's how you open it up.

We're going to throw you forth from the top like that. Boggles my mind, dude. Just like I said it before, boggles my mind. It's crazy. It's crazy. So if you're betting on this, best of luck.

I hope you have the right side on that. So if you're betting on this, drop us the line because I want to know what made you, what inspired you to feel like we got 14 cards. or 14 fights from the UFC this weekend there's not a shortage of fights like the last few cards have been you know if you're really just trying to get your fix in there's only 10 fights that's not the case man we got a ton of fights this whatever is compelling you i want to know so tell me what is compelling you dear viewer who's got money down because i want to figure this out it's also a week before a

pay-per-view too like you want to just kind of get out of here clean green feeling good heading into UFC 275. Yeah, this is a minimized damage week, you know, you just, you don't want to take, because you don't want to have to be chasing it at the pay-per-view. You don't want to be like, I'm behind. I got to end May, poorly, I got to get into a strong start of June. You just got to be like, eh, I got some action now. I had some fun watching some fights on Saturday.

Now let's gear up for the big business. Nothing like those weeks going into it where even if you just get a dollar of profit, it's viewed as a win. I mean, a dollar profit is always viewed as a win, especially on here. We always, I mean, even a dollar loss, I'll view that as a win because that's not a big loss. That's the saddest part, bro. If I lose less than a unit in one week, I'm just like, there's a nothing week. It's nothing.

But if I win point four units, I'm like, that's a winning week, profitable week, you know? I buy myself a sand dough with that. Just go crush a sand dough. Exactly, bro. Exactly. I was a professional sports better this week. I made money while watching fistfights. That's the best life.

That is the best life. All right, let's keep it moving. A light, heavyweight fight. Alonzo Menefield going up against Ascar, Mosharov. Kind of weird here. Mosharov was 25 and 7 on Tapology, and then this afternoon, we're recording this on Tuesday. On Tuesday afternoon, he was updated to 21 and 11.

It turns out, I guess, 40. Are you kidding? No. This is awesome. Yeah. Four of his wins were actually losses. But that doesn't really make a difference. And in the bet that I made on this one, which I've had in for a few days now.

I'm using it as a- Oh, so you do have action. I do have action here. This is my other action on the main card. It's a parlay piece. It's the fight does not go the distance. I grabbed it at minus 310. I parlayed it up with the main event completes one round.

That pays out at minus 148. But just to get into the stats here, Mosa Rav, 32 professional fights, 30 of them have knock on the distance. Of those 30 that have knocked on the distance, 29 have ended in the first round. Of those 29 that ended in the first round, 13 have ended in the first 90 seconds. I mean, this guy, like, we talk about killer be killed. This guy is kill or be killed. He is the hammer where he is the knell and the fight almost never goes the distance.

Lonzo Menofield, he's had a couple decisions of late, but 10 of his 11 wins are by finish. So I'm going to trust whoever gets the win here, it's going to be by finish. I mean, I think if that is, do you know what that line is actively? I think it has absolutely been steamed up. There's a few of these lines that have like steamed like crazy.

We'll get into the Damon Jackson later, but that line has gotten crushed. I would totally believe. it. I mean, it's just, especially with this one, I think if you're going to have action here. The best you can get in a minus 550. Wow. I wish I had put more. Yeah, that's, I mean, it makes sense. I mean, the under is minus 175 at one and a half. So it makes sense for that to be a fairly, fairly steamed line. I wish you the best of luck, my friend. I see no arguments against what you're saying. I looked at unders. I looked at the over

under's kind of tried to see if there was something that I was interested in. And what the one piece that you said is, is the thing that made this not a parley piece, not something I wanted to be invested in. His last two fights, Alonzo Minfield has not been the get-or-get guy. You know, I mean, he's gone to decision, his most recent two fights. And I just, I was looking at this card. And I tried to be smart this week.

And I don't know if that's, if that's good, if that's dumb, if I'm going to miss opportunities, or what I've done here. But I don't have any, I just, I looked at a set, I don't want to have my money be dependent on a Lanzum in a field and a guy who, I mean, to his credit, he has been, he has been settling business very, very quickly for the last couple of years. Because Ascar has been out, I mean, do you look at his like eight seconds, 33 seconds, 27 seconds, two minutes and 34 seconds. That's his last three fights.

I don't even think that's four minutes. Eight seconds. Eight seconds in bare knuckle, 33. Eight seconds in bare knuckle. 12. Yeah, 27. I remember the bare knuckle win because that was one of those big of time highlights or whatever.

It wasn't it, it was a B.YB Extreme Fight series, but it's a bare knuckle fight. Yeah, I mean, he has been getting after it, get or get got. And so I think you're probably on the right side of this, but I just don't want my money to be tied to two people who I would not call reliable fighters. And so I said, you know what? I don't need to have action on this one. I will live to bet on other. And we're about to talk about it, fights that probably aren't as good or won't be as fun, I guess. They're better fights, but they won't be as fun.

Yeah, you make that point. There's not a ton of fighters that I love time my money up with this week, but it's just one of those weeks where you've got to do it. For the tennis fans out there to update, you know, you've had 95% of my attention now. You now have 100,

but Raphael on the Doll is just defeated Novak Djokovic in four sets. So now you have my full 100% attention. I'm going to the French Open final this Sunday, so I've been paying much closer attention. I also have a pretty big future ticket on Raphael on the Dock. doll, so big, big stuff they're getting past Novak Djokovic.

That line has to be like plus 110 or something on the doll. Plus 175. He was actually a huge underdog against Novak today. I took him at plus 200. And he made light work of Novak. So, uh, yeah, that makes sense. We're hyped up over here. Hopefully I'm going to get to see the King of Clay get another French open on Sunday.

Let's keep it rolling with the fight game, though, shall we? I mean, sure, I guess. We could turn this into a tennis podcast. Once upon a time, I'm. made some, when I, when I previously lived in Vegas, I would bet on basketball because I was bad at betting on basketball, but I'd like to bet on basketball. The other thing that I found that I could bet successfully on tennis was if you just bet on Nadal and Federer and Djokovic, you just win a lot of money is why they just give you free money is what I determine.

Yeah, you typically just win. I mean, those guys, they win a lot. It's pretty incredible. So, yeah, we got into all moving. Moving on to the semis. Us moving on, though, we've got immense flyweight bout. Odey Osborne going up against Zeruk, Adashev. And this one, I don't have a bet here. But just looking over it, watching a little bit of tape,

I definitely side with Ode. I mean, he's got the size advantage, the finishing advantage. He's got more cage time. I mean, Zeruk really doesn't have... All of the advantages is what he has? Yeah, he doesn't have like any impressive wins. And I was going to say, If you have a play on O'Day, I would hop on with you right now.

I do not have a play on O'Day. All right. Well, that's a bummer. I was really hoping to add another bet, you know, and we could ride together. No, because I agree with you. Like, I, this was a fight where, one, Zerouk is just not very good. Like, I don't, he's just not a, I think the correct bet here is to bet on O'Day. But the Ryan Minoy, that one just, that win really throws me for a loop.

Because he fought so differently than he'd ever fought before. like against sumerji i'm probably butchered that uh sumujer that the the mononym fighter that is a flyweight i know he threw like three stride like he barely tried to fight it was super he just had no no real volume there um and then he got obliterated by tyson nam in like half a minute or whatever it was it's just he he doesn't seem to be good his wins weren't good and then Brian Benoy who's not a great fighter but he's he's like a serviceable fighter and and Zerup just looked entirely different he landed a bunch his volume is very high and that's that just gives me way too much pause because I guess like we said I think O'Dowd Osborne has a ton

of physical advantages here fought much stiffer competition his losses are to good guys you know menel kate Brian Kelleher those are competitive dudes but I just I can't I can't feel good about having a bet down. And so I just said, you know what? I could throw Ode in a parlay. Like if I was gonna bet it, I would just have him as a throwaway parlay leg, but I'm just not gonna be involved.

I think it's played safe this week. That's my motto. Yeah, I may put together an air fryer and throw O'Day in there, but I'm with you. It's just kind of one of those fights where I don't really wanna trust O'Day to get it done with my money. Plus, you're paying a decent amount of juice on a minus 180,

I think is what he's sitting there. what he's sitting at right now i wouldn't mind paying i wouldn't mind trusting him if the if he wasn't minus 180 but that that's just high for a guy who is not great and granted he's fighting a guy who i think is not very good but too many variables too much price just minus 140 i'm playing this seven ways the sunday i think yeah i think i got to play a minus i might need a little i might need it a little lower than minus 140 even but look listener instead of playing audio was born you know i'm gonna i'm gonna clue you in i got a tip it's it's close as close to a lock as you get in this here sport instead of playing that on o day you can just take all that money

that you would have put on oday and you can put it next weekend on valentin de chenko because she's never going to lose ever and we'll talk all about her next weekend but if you just you know just save save up your money to put on on the chevy truck because that fight's coming down the bend and boy is it going to pay you off. Am I to say $800? Yeah. That's free money. You see me walking down the street.

Are you going to walk past a $20 bill? No, I'm going to pick that $20 bill up. I like it. I've already got some plays for next week and Valentina Schipchenko is involved in them, so I'm happy that you said that. I'm strongly considering next week being nothing but parley's. Wow. And basically taking every,

very non-jet. Every straight is not, but what I would do is I would take every single straight bet I have and just tie it to Valentine's Chico to win. I figured out what you were going to say about halfway through that sentence. Why not? Yeah. I mean, why not just in case because it's in the man? I kind of think I'm going to do it.

I honestly think I'm going to do it. Like it would just be demoralizing if you were like six and one on the night. Shep Chanko steps up and then goes for a leg kick and snaps her leg. It would actually, well, that wouldn't be. be funny because I would feel bad for her, but it would be objectively funny if I went bankrupt because I did that. And frankly, I'm probably going to do that next week now that I'm saying. But we'll get to that next week. We don't need to, that's teasing the fans. But next week, expect wild and wackiness. Well, let's tease the fans no longer. Let's move on from the main

card. Let's get to the prelims. A women's straw wapout, Felice Herring going up against Carolina Cavalkechek. I don't have a play on this. I know you're the man to come for with a play on this fight. So let's hear what you've got. Well, first, this fight was on the main card and then they booted it for O'Donazmore. Should have booted it for Pollyanna-Bautello. I mean, yeah, for sure.

Or both of them. I know. Why do we need six main card fight? I don't know what's going on, man. Who can say? Also, why do we need this fight? They fought before. We've already seen it.

Neither woman, literally neither woman has won a fight since their last fight. I don't know if you were aware of that fun-filled stat. I learned it this week. But Caroline Nicole, Kovovic's last win was the split decision win over Fleeves-Hareg at UFC 2-23. That was in April of 2018, which means that was four years ago. And Herig's last win was the fight before. she lost to Kovalkavich a splitie over Courtney Casey so already some wackiness at play here Herrick hasn't fought in two years.

Kovalkiewicz has just been on a horrendous decline which is honestly really depressing just because I like Erlian Kovalkavich she's one of the nicest people in the sport and seeing her kind of have to adjust to reaching her ceiling and then dropping precipitously has been pretty tough. But, but I think she's going to get it back on track here, buddy. I, a number of factors went into this decision for me. The first is she won the first bout. Neither of these women are substantially different fighters than they were back then.

They're just older and probably not as good, especially Felice Herig, who hasn't fought in two years. don't feel great about her coming in her first fight in two years against someone she's already lost to and suddenly turning the tide around second covalcavich has changed camps she talked about retirement but she is with american top team um hoping that that she seems reinfigurated hoping that gives a little boost and again just going to go back to this very very key fight they already fought and covalcavich won and they're the same two fighters. Kovo Kavich has the volume, maybe a little bit cleaner of a striker. Erick's a better grappler, but she is not a great takedown artist.

Keravukovic can probably win inside the clinch, keep this fight upright, and just out-pointer. And for whatever reason, Herrick, the biggest point of all, Herrick is a favorite here. It blows my mind that off a two-year layoff when the last win she had was before she lost to Kobolkevich. Herig is somehow minus 125 favorite right now. It makes zero sense to me. If they put this fight as a dead even pick-em, I could at least understand the logic. I would still think that that's maybe wrong.

But having Herig be the favorite is just insane to me. And so I'm going to do it for the third time, buddy, for the third time this week. Because you don't pick Carolyn Colvukovic to win fights. You pick her to win fights by decision. because that is what Kailene Govogovic does. Nine of her 12 career wins have been by decision. She has zero finishes inside the UFC. Her number right now is plus 105 straight up,

or you can get her at plus 165 by decision. Again, that's about an 11, 12 point swing and win probability, which is insane because it should be as almost a one-to-one. The Venn diagram should be a circle. And so I want to get in on underdog action of Kovulkevich, and I'm going to take her by decision at plus 165 straight. And I feel pretty good about that bet. I like that, man. It's very Chukagan Maya 2-esque.

I mean, it was the same exact women fighting against each other, except in that one, Chukagin was a minus 2-10 favorite rather than being the underdog that gold that. I mean... Explain it to me. I really don't understand it. Explain how she's the underdog. When I saw that, I was like, I'm actually surprised Caroline is the underdog there. And then I looked more into it and I was like, wow, I'm actually really surprised with the fact like, I mean, the simple fact that Herring has not won a fight since before she last fought Carolina, which she lost that last fight. Like it's, it really doesn't make any sense to me.

So I support you with this play here. Boggles, absolutely boggles my mind. And as a result, I have two pieces of action on this fight as well. We got two. Let's go. We have a second one because as good as I feel about that. that bet, I feel exceptionally good about a parley piece on this fight. So I've got one parley this week.

We'll talk about the other half of it. It's just a two-leg parley. We'll talk about the other half in a bit. But everything I just said about, you know, Kovalkovich has nine wins, nine of her 12 career wins by decision. Herrick has been stopped one time in her career. Well, nine of Herrick's 14 wins have been by decision. She's got a couple of submissions in the UFC, but that's about it.

And you can get this fight goes to decision at minus 280. Again, they've already fought. It went to decision. It wasn't really ever close to not going to decision. Neither of these women are big finishers. Both of them are pretty durable. I don't see how this parley leg doesn't cash, so I have got that as half of a parley. This fight goes to decision.

The other half I also feel great about it's. I hate feeling good about parlays because something always goes haywire, but I feel confident here. Yeah, minus 280. I feel like it, I honestly thought the line would have been worse when you were saying that. I thought it would have been like minus 50 minus 400 range. It should have been. It makes no sense to me. So I took this week trying to take the most obvious value plays I could, and that feels very value-y-to-me.

Herring, Koval-Kchuk, two. Koval-Kay-chuk. No. Kovalkavich. I don't know why I'm going I'm going Ilya Colvich I'm putting that on in the end of her last name Kovalkavich

You When did you come to M.A? We had already passed the Koval Kavich Time period hadn't you? Yeah. Koval Kavich is She, I predicted her

upset of Rosnam of Yunis Actually was the first event I ever did for MMA fighting It was UFC 201 It was right here in Atlanta. The first time I met. Yep.

It was the first time I had met Ariel and Casey and company. Kane, we were doing the pre-fight show, and I was like, I don't know. I like Goldovich. I think she's just going to win. I think she's going to win a volume-based decision in a hard fight with her. And then afterwards, Ariel was like, hey, you call those. Like, yeah, I'm a genius Ariel. And so began.

So began my love affair. So applied to the seed of no bets barred. And now here you are taking her again in this situation. and I don't blame me for it. Got to. Got to dance with the girl who brung me, and Carolina Kovulkevich brung me. All right, let's keep it rolling.

Lightweight bout. We're getting Joe Selecki going up against Alex De Silva. And in this one, I am actually back in the dog here. I mean, could select... Oh. Oh. I knew you had some dogs, but I didn't know if we were going to get a wolf pack.

Let's go. I love it. I love it. It's a wolf pack. That is the sound of a wolf pack wage. I love it. I love the face. I love everything. I mean, yeah, dude. So like, yeah, I wish everybody could see me. I did not realize that was what was happening. And I was like, oh, my God, we're going to have one. I saw the face. And I was just like, oh, God, this is it. Wow. So yeah, we're both riding with Alex and Silver signed my plus 150. I think he's still out there, plus 150 where you can get them. That's the number I got him at today. Yeah, I mean, could solve. So like you just rack up control time? So we're on a dead even wolf pack then. Oh, I love this. Other times the numbers have been slightly different. We are dead even, 150 a pop.

Let's go. Please tell me why we are so smart and the betting public is so wrong here. Yeah, it's like, it's almost like I feel like the betting public is like, I feel like the public public is on Joe Selecki. I feel like the betting public is a little bit more on Alex DeSilva. His number has been coming down. I want to say he opened up closer to the plus. 200 range. But I mean, when I was looking at it, first thought I was just like, oh, Selecki is likely just going to rack up control time. You know, he does, he's always the position

over submission type guy. And could he get that win doing that? I mean, yes, sure. But I mean, just going back, I rewatch that De Silva versus Brad Riddell fight. And I mean, I thought he made a pretty decent showing of himself, especially. Yeah, especially in that first round, dude. I mean, he had Redell heard. It looked like he was almost going to lock up a submission as well. I mean, I thought he was impressive. And just to go back, he was only 24 then, fighting, you know, a top 15, top 10 guy in the division in Brad Redell. Like, I mean, a quality opponent at the time. And I think he's just only going to continue to get better. I mean, in this fight, I think he has an advantage on the feet. I mean, I think he's a more versatile striker. I think he can mix in the kicks well.

And it seems to me like he has a ground game of his own. I mean, if Selecki can't just, you know, know, basically lay and prey, just kind of dominate on the ground and in top control, then I think De Silva is incredibly live to win this fight. And what we always say on this podcast, dude, I think this is probably going to go to decision. I think if someone does get the finish, it's going to be De Silva. And if it does go to decision, I think it's going to be a really close fight. And I'd rather be holding the plus 150 ticket on DeSilva rather than Joe Selecki,

especially with a guy like DeSilva who has the finishing upside. I mean, I fully on board with everything you are saying. To me, the decision maker here was, I do not like how Selecki fights. He is obviously a very good grappler. Oh, for sure. And he's very smooth. And once he gets you down, he's pretty solid control on the ground. His wrestling is, it's fine.

I wouldn't say it's exceptional, but it's fine. But the way he fight, his striking is so stiff. It's so rigid. He looks so uncomfortable. And I know that that's not a very scientific way to approach this. But like, at the end of the day, it's just true. You watch that dude fight and you're like, you wouldn't assume that he is a fistfight. You'd be like, that guy is a wrestler who has been thrown into a fist fight.

And I think because I think De Silva has proven to be a pretty good defensive wrestler. I mean, the stats on his take down defense are very strong. He shoots a bunch of his own takedowns as well. He's proven to be a pretty solid wrestler. He's a, I would say, a very adequate grappler. I think if Selecki can get takedowns, you know, that's his path to victory. And if he can get them, I think there's no real way he's going to finish De Silva. I think De Silva is competent enough to stave that off.

But I like all the little things in his advantage. I think Selecki's going to have to work a lot harder to get the fight where he wants, whereas on the feet, I think De Silva is much more fluid. Much more athletic just seems much more comfortable. He can make so lucky work for those takedowns. And that's just going to tire him out. And as this fight continues to go on, I love De Silva's potential to win. You know, he's, what is he, 26 now?

Something like that? Yeah. Like, yeah, he's still young, still developing a ton. This just lines up to me. This is the exact kind of underdog ticket. I love to bet a guy who is a bit limited, juiced up because of for whatever reason against a guy who has a lot of tools who is young who's developing who's shown a lot has had some setbacks but look going to a competitive competitive fight

against Alex not against Alex Silva against Bradreda Dell sorry that is frankly and no disrespect to Jim Miller who I have a tremendous amount of respect for that's a more impressive performance than beating a pretty old Jim Miller or, you know, beating Austin Hubbard or also an old Matt Wyman. Like, those aren't the same kind of wins to me. So even as the loss that De Silva has. So, yeah, this was the last bet I put down because the rest of it I didn't. I was trying to figure out. And then I was like, yeah, this just feels right.

So the big concern, De Silva, not a good underdog. He's 0 and 2 as an underdog in his career. I'm hoping to snap that. Time to make it one. Time to make it one and two. Yeah, it is time to be one and two because Selecky's three and one is a favorite. So both of those numbers, little, not your favorite thing to see, but I think the style's here. I think his development's here.

I think he is an extremely live dog, and I love the value bet. So, oh, oh. Oh, we've packed wager, baby. Hopefully we can cash one here. We've cashed one before, right? I was going to say, yeah, we're one-on-one-on-one on Wolfpacks. Polizzi's bringing this down, but... He broke his jaw, you know, what are we going to do?

Yeah, but one-in-one with underdog bets, you know what that means? Some profit, baby. That's what that is. That is some profit. That's what I'm talking about. All right, let's keep it rolling. On to the next fight. It is a featherweight bout, Damon Jackson going up against Daniel Argueeta.

For me, in this one, I took Damon Jackson Moneyline on, like, Saturday when it was minus 265. I really can't believe how much this is... Oh, that number got moved. I mean, it got... That number got moved, dude. It's like minus 550 and like as big as minus 600 at some books. I mean, I played him pretty confidently. I didn't throw a ton of them. I took... I did 2.65 to win one unit on him. I mean, I played fairly confidently. He's got the size advantage, massive experience advantage in this one. Argretta, stepping in on short notice, he just fought less than a month ago as well in LFA. I think this is a huge step up in

competition for him. Jackson, he's also just super slick on the ground. I think it's just going to be too much for him. And I think Jackson will get a win either by submission or by decision. And a note on Jackson, you know, I feel like he's just kind of a, I don't want to say like a forgotten fighter. I just feel like, you know, he's 20 and four and people don't really ever talk about him. And then in his last 11, he's nine and two. And in his two losses, the guy's combined record is 31.0.1. Ilya and then an undefeated fighter in PFL as well. So I mean, Jackson, he's a pretty solid guy. And I think he gets it done here against the guy coming in on short notice making a step up in competition.

Yeah. That undefeated fighter, Mobley Khabelab, I probably butchered that. That dude is an absolute monster. He's in my top 15 rankings for the division. he's actually I think he's in my top 10 that dude is great and then I mean his other losses even you go back

Kevin Aguilar Antim Maderos those are not those are not bad losses especially for a young developing fighter and love the win over Charles Rosa I think that's a phenomenal win yeah I have no action here though

mainly because I came to this and he is minus 510 and I think you're going to win the fight but I'm not laying that number on him to win the fight. I'm with you at this point. And I don't feel real confident. It's fairly unplayable. Yeah, I don't feel real confident on him at any, the props that are available or anything like that.

So when I looked at this, like, yeah, this is just a clear pass. I'm not going to, even as much as I like David Jackson, not putting that juice on anybody unless they're Valentina Shepchenko. Which we'll get to that next week. All right. Well, let's just keep it rolling then. next up a bantam weight bout Tony Gravely going up against Johnny Munoz Jr.

And this is another situation where I am riding with the dog in this one. I took Johnny Munoz at plus 130. We kind of know what we're getting with Gavely. I mean, he's coming in here to wrestle, but he should actually be kind of careful with the wrestling going up against Munoz. I mean, dude's a B.J.J. Blackbelt.

Slick submission game. Top control is nice. I think he's pretty solid down on the mat. I actually think that Munoz will welcome Gavely. if he wants to take it to the mat, which I think that Gravely is going to try and do. And I think he could end up capitalizing on that and potentially finishing Gravely in this one. I'm not overly impressed with what Tony does. I mean, he had a ton of takedowns' lifetime out against Sam and Olivera. But I don't think it's going to come as easily against Johnny Munoz.

And I think Munoz's ground game is much more accomplished than Olivares. And I'm happy to ride with the dog in this situation. Where did you get him at? Plus 1.30. plus 130 well now we find ourselves in a very interesting situation because I do not have action but the action I was looking at was either a dog bed on Munoz or potentially a prop bet on Munoz by submission the reason I didn't take Munoz by submission is that number is not nearly what it should be it's like plus 280 or something which is not because if there's 500 I'd be I'd be snout snapping it up, but the books have decided that they don't want to play that game. And so plus 280 is just not enough value. I think gravely, I think five of his seven losses ever submission.

In fact, five of his seven losses have come by submission. And Munoz is a jihitsu champion. I mean, he is. I'm not here to say that he's not. But it's sport jihitsu, which is the same as like IBJJGF, but it's just not as, like, well regarded. Like, not, the competition's not quite the same. It certainly doesn't have that same cachet as the Mundials do,

but this dude is a very accomplished grappler. And the thing that made me interested in is we've seen Gravely make some dangerous decisions outside of getting tapped. I mean, against Simon O'Levara, he continued to put his neck right in there to get guillotined as he was going for his myriad takedowns. It is, I want you to sell me on it, but first, before you sell me on it, because we could have another wolf pack, I need you to sell me, but before we get this, I'll tell you the exact reason I didn't make a bet.

The exact reason was, as I was looking through this, is I like everything you've said so far, I like Johnny Munoz's ability, his grappling ability, gravely has some weaknesses, but the guys who have submitted him, the guys who have beaten gravely, it is a list of dudes who can fight their asses off. Brett Johns, a really damn good fighter. Patchy Mix, coming off the biggest one of his career recently over Kiojou or Gucci, really damn good fighter.

Manny Bermudez, very good fighter. Little man, you might have heard of him, especially because as we're recording this just beforehand, UFC Bannamweight champion how Jermaine Sterling just said he is going to leave the division because his boy, Marab Dvaleshvili, is going to eventually come try and fight for the title. So, you know, Davalishvili, a phenomenal fighter. Ricky Bend Dehaz. Oh, oh, I'm sorry.

I forgot the very beginning of his career. Pat Sabatini. Like, these are all dudes who can fight. And I feel like Johnny Munoz could be in that regard. He could be there. He's obviously undefeated before the Nate Menace, Manet. loss, but I don't know if he's that level. So sell me. Sell me so we can have a second wolfback wager. I wish I could do like a really good selling job. But this, out of all the

picks, this might be one of my least favorite ones. As we discussed beforehand, I was like, yeah, I got like seven plays. I think I am like really liking five of them. I don't know how good of a sell job I can do. Here's one one cell. Everyone that you just listed, yes, they're all killers. but those are all losses as well for Tony. Like, it's not like he was winning any of those fights. Like, you know, those are all game guys and, like, they're not bad losses to have on your resume, but they are all losses that you were listing off. So Johnny Munoz, ground game, slick.

Nice. It's just a really tough. Yeah, I don't think I'm going to be able to do enough to sell you. I don't think I am. My other concern here is that, like, if Gravely just decides he doesn't want to, to wrestle or if he's just like i'm not a great striker but he he he has i mean he he can punch hard uh as anthony burjack found out he's got he's got some pop in his hand i mean he almost the the man has lost he had him hurt at the end of the round you know if that had come

earlier in the fight probably c o victory he he can hit pretty hard and he is a such a good wrestler that i'm not as sure moonos if if gravely decides to i hate the phrase but going to say it, use his wrestling in reverse. I don't know how confident I feel at Munoz. So you didn't do enough. We're not going to have two wolf packs. I didn't expect to honestly. Yeah, I'm cool with riding this wolf pack. Actually, it wouldn't be a wolf pack. I'm cool with riding this dog by myself. Well, I hope that dog, that puppy barks for you. And if it does, then I'm going to feel really sad that I didn't get involved. Yeah. I would say that I felt bad, but I wouldn't because I would be catching a dog. I'll feel much better if it if it loses because

I would be doing it by myself than if it was. wins because I would be cashing that so I wouldn't be feel nearly as bad. Smart. I love that energy. I'd rather you not lose with me. I would not want you to do that. All right. I'm riding the dog there.

Let's keep it rolling throughout the prelims, though. We've got a welterweight bout. Andreas McElidis going up against Renat. Fuck Reddenoff. I read over that name like four or five times before the show and I still can't get it. Yeah. No, I think Falk Grettonoff is okay. I won't pretend to be an expert on this, but I was so interested when I saw this on the list of fights to talk about. Yeah.

I think I know what you've done here, and we're going to need to have a talk about what you've done here. I took the fight. I took the fight doesn't go the distance. Okay. That's fine. Nab did it at minus 115. McAletus, 16 of his 18 fights have not seen the scorecards, all five of his last. losses are coming by knockout. We're not 18 of his 22 pro fights have not gone the distance. They have a combined 22 first round finishes in their careers.

That's 40 total fights 22 finishing in the first round. So 85% of their combined fights have knock on the distance, 55% of those ending in the first round. And you're going to give it to me at minus 115 to knock on the distance. I will take that all day. Well, that number is moved. It's, you know, one-190-ish now. So you got in on the good side of the action.

Shout to the Seizers. I have nothing to say about this fight. I would not. I hope you're correct. If you're going to take action on it, I would say that that seems fine. Also, Fakh Rettinov is probably going to win this fight. Bold going last name rather than just saying Rennat. I mean, that's.

I'm trying to work hard, trying to do my best here. We're going to learn because we're going to hear those names a lot from, I assume John Anix's on the call this weekend. But yeah, this is one of those fights that I'm for sure just, nope, don't have enough confidence that either dude has shown me anything. I don't need to have my money down in this position this week. All right. I can't disagree with that.

Hopefully it doesn't go the distance. If or not does win, I expect it to be probably by now. knockout with the way Michaelatus loses and the way he wins. Or maybe it's vice versa. As long as it doesn't go the distance, I will be a happy camper. We have one more fight to get into. We do. Do you have action on this fight?

I do not. It is the women's... So this is just to me. This is just to you, and I'm going to let you take the wheel to women's flyweight bout. We're getting Aaron Blanchfield going up against J.J. Aldrich Blanchfield, a huge favorite. She's competing with Damon Jackson to be the biggest favorite on the card here. What say you, Jen?

I think Aaron Blanchfield is probably the best prospect in this division is one of the best prospects in female MMA in general. She is 23 years old and a frigging just turned 23 by the way. So we're clear, just turned 23 and she's a frigging monster. She has one loss in her career. That was Tracy Cortez. It was an evicta. That was a bad decision. She should have won that fight.

she should be undefeated and her last her last performance was just putting the boots to marynda maverick who is also a very good prospect especially with her arts to women's m m ms i think the sky is the limit for blanchefield so earlier today we were recording the m mhm fighting ranking show podcast if you haven't listened to it that should drop sometime around the same time that this podcast has dropped so go check it out uh we talked a lot of about Aaron Blanchfield. We talked about her, Menlofiro, Casey O'Neill, kind of ranking where the prospects for this division were. And all of us were in agreement that Aaron Blanchfield, she's a rocket ship. Like, none of us think that Valentina Shepchenko is going to be

losing the flyway belt anytime soon. But at some point, she will retire. When she does, Blanchfield is going to be really assuming her development continues along this line. she's going to be in a great, great position to take advantage of that. And this is the fight that helps set this up. Like, J.J. Aldridge is a very good fighter. Do not get me wrong. I mean, she's been competing in the UFC for a long time. But she has lost to, you know, Macy Barber, who I think is, frankly, not as good

as prospect as Plainsville is. She's got the Sabino Mazo, Juliana Limo losses. And this fight had, and we've learned one very important thing about her, One very, very important thing about her is that she cannot wrestle with Aaron Blanchfield. I just don't think that that's the case. She's not a bad defensive wrestler. But I think Blanchefield, if she wants to wrestle, she's going to be able to get takedowns at will. If she doesn't, she just wants to outstriker.

She's got a lot more volume. She's much, I think she's faster. I just think this is everything is one-way traffic. There is a reason that Blanchefield is tied for the biggest favorite on this card. And so I have parlayed her with the aforementioned. Carolyn Nicole, Kavich, release here, it goes to the distance. You get that together. It's only a minus 162-ish number, but I think that that's still a tremendous value.

I wanted a third leg to the barlet. I just couldn't find anything I liked, frankly. So I'll take minus 162, and I will be really, that's the bet. That parlay is the bet I feel the most confident on this weekend. Yeah, I mean, I mentioned it earlier. I thought that fight should go the distance should be at worse odds than you got it at. And then Blanchefield, I will be very surprised if she loses. So I don't blame you for being so confident in the parlor.

Yeah, I mean, it's, I wanted to maybe make a prop bet on Blanchefield somewhere because she is a bit more decision heavy than, you know, maybe you would hope, hope for her to be. But she's early yet. And I, there's just the opportunity for her to suddenly decide, like to suddenly find a new gear because she's so young, she's developing so quickly that I decided I didn't even want to play like an over or ghost of decision prop. Just give me her straight in this parlay and that'll be enough for me this week. I mean, sometimes that's the best way to do it. And, you know, just, just cover all the bases. I remember UFC 270. I played in Ghana. And everyone was like, why aren't you just playing in Ganu by knockout? That's the only way he wins. just got to cover the basis sometimes so look just if there's value just take where the value's at and we talked about a lot this week this is a I'm playing a little safer than maybe I need to but

I I'm not that exposed I'm getting getting ready for a big run where everything is parlayed with Valencia Chanko next week it's going to be a chaotic week and I'm just getting getting us over the hump so we can really go big for UFC 275 so I actually have terrible news what I'm not going to be on the pod next week for 275. Oh my goodness. We'll have to find a replacement. Yeah. I feel like this is late breaking news here.

Like it's Fox 5 or something. Will you send me your picks? So we can't at least tell the good people. Oh, the picks will be out. The picks will be out. We've got to let the good people know. Yeah, I'm going to have to find a bar in Florence, Italy, to watch this fight. Oh, man, Florence is incredible.

I love that you say that because I'm very much looking forward to it. incredible place to go. Singapore is where 275 is at, but they're doing it on American time? I mean, that's how they always do it. Well, not always, but many times. That's how they do it. Yeah, I was really hoping we could have capitalized and that it would have been a better time for me.

So I'm going to be up at like 3 a.m. watching 275. Wow. Big, I mean. Good day, your own experience. That'll be a shame. I'm glad I got to say it this week then that all of my bets will be tied to Valentina Shonchenko because you wouldn't have been here next week. for it. I love it. Taylor Santos, you know, may she rest in peace, I guess, in Jeds eyes,

because there's no way she's running, she says. That is correct. Yeah, I'm also going to miss the UFC Austin one, too, which I was actually looking forward to that. Calvin Cater, I've already locked him in. I took him at minus 170, got him a couple weeks in advance, but I'll be back after that, and then I'll finish up the 12-week run with you with about 10 weeks to spare. So you won't miss me too much. I can promise you that. Enjoy the weeks off without me, honestly, at that point, because we're going to get real familiar over the next 12 weeks. So that's this card. UFC Vegas 56, Rosenstrike versus Volkov. The bets that I have, Damon Jackson money line minus 265, Alex the Silva money line plus 150, Johnny Munoz Jr. Moneyline

plus 130. McAleidis Fok Reddenov does not go the distance at minus 115. Moufzsar, Evlov, money line at minus 200. Volkov Rosenstrike completes round two at minus 175 and then I parlayed Minifield Masrovov does not go the distance at minus 310 with Volkov Rosenstrike completes round one at minus 375 that pays out at minus 148 so I've got six singles and one parlay for this weekend nice I have Rosenstrike by KOTKO at plus 215 got mob sorry I have the web by decision at minus 200. I have Carolyn Kovalecovich by decision at plus 165 and completing, you know, the Wolfpack, got to have the Wolfpack wager, Alex De Silva at plus 150. And then I have one parlay. Carolina Colchowice-Air goes the distance with Aaron Blanchfield Street. That will pay out at minus

162. So a light week, just five bets total down for me. But they're all going to hit. We're all going to make millions of dollars and so it's all going to be okay exactly when you go when you got an oh in your in your loss column on your bets it's a good week uh good week i could actually say that for this past week i took some boxing and some ks w wisconsin and some ks wits it's always that's what's up it's always a good feeling so uh best bet you've got i'm gonna i'm just gonna say best bet best value best underdog play everything i'm gonna say it's the wolf pack wager Alex the silver we ride as a team and we ride into the night that's my best bet this week My best bet is still going to be my parlay

because Carolina Kovalcovic and fleece, Eric, are going to go to a decision regardless of who wins and Aaron Blanchefield is going to win. Yeah, in all actuality, I'm really liking that Damon Jackson of minus 265 right now. I mean, that's that part, that is a number that probably would have made it

the third leg of the parlay. Minus 510, not so much, but 265, that would have been the third leg on that parlay. Stayaway fight. I think we're both on the same. page pauliana betello koreen sylva no thank you yeah i have to i literally do not know what korea looks like i've never seen her fight i've seen her fight once before but if you showed me a random fight like who is this i could not tell you if it's korean silva so i cannot bet that fight

all right then of course the wolf pack wager is alex the silva so that's all we've got ufc vegas 56 hopefully it ends up being a pretty good card nice early start this week 1 p m how do we feel that I love it. I actually will probably not be watching live. So I'm doing the most Gen Xie thing you can possibly think of this weekend instead. I'm going I booked tickets to a concert a year ago and I forgot about it with some friends. My buddy's wife was like, we should go to this. It was like, yeah, sure. It is the bare-necked ladies. Wow. With the gin blossoms and towed the wet sprocket opening. So really, really playing the nostalgia 90s.

Yeah, I was going to say. Early 2000s tunes. Also, because, obviously, for a concert like that, the people going are mid-30s, you know, pushing 40s, they're old. They don't want to be out late in the evening. It's at like seven. So the whole card might be over by seven.

I'll say the early fight time. I will probably watch some of the early. early card stuff, but I will almost certainly miss the main event. Oh, darn, I have to miss 25 minutes of heavyweight action and catch up on it the next day. Let's hope it's 25 minutes. Let's hope. Well, not for, I mean, not for you. Let's hope it's, let's hope it's 20 minutes and then Rosenstrike gets the K.O. for you. Look, I'll take a Derek Lewis-esque K.O. in the last 10 seconds for Rosenststststrike. That would be beautiful. That's totally fine with me. That would be beautiful. Yeah, the one o'clock I actually am a fan of since I will be

over in France, which... Oh, yeah. Yeah, which, yeah, I'll be gone the next two weeks for any listeners curious. I won't be here the next two weeks. I'm taking a Euro trip for a friend's wedding. Hopefully cash a ticket over there with Rafael Nadal and hopefully cashed in tickets

watching some UFC. I'm going to have to be one of the Euro brethren this week getting up at like 3 a.m. to watch a fight card. So I'm looking forward to that for 275. I mean, see how the other half lives. you know, report back. I don't think I'd be a UFC fan if I had to live like the other half-lived. So I'm really going to find out how much of a fan I really am this next weekend.

All right, though, that's all we've got. UFC Vegas 250. No, UFC Vegas 56. Why don't they just call it UFC Apex 56? Someone said, I think it was Halwani said that. Sounds way cool. Almost certain it was Helwani because he definitely messaged our group about that. It sounds wake cool.

UFC Apex 56. Those were our backs. Thank you for listening. Jed will be. be back next week to break down UFC 275 and parlay everything with Valentina Shefchenko. Thank you for listening. Talk soon. Love you guys.