MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Jake Paul Keep The Money Train Rolling Against Tommy Fury? Plus UFC Vegas 70 & Bellator 291 Action

Episode Date: February 22, 2023

This weekend is a monster one in combat sports with no less than FIVE major events taking place, and so of course the No Bets Barred boys are here to break down all the betting action. First, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew dive into yet another UFC Fight Night card, UFC Vegas 70 taking place at the APEX and headlined by a light heavyweight matchup between Nikita Krylov and Ryan Spann. Both Conner and Jed are a little wary of the main event, but have no such qualms about Andre Muniz and the long-awaited return of Tatiana Suarez; plus, both guys end up with a few other plays on the card. Next the boys jump into discussions about Bellator 291, with some main event action for Jed and a finely minted Chalk Soup parlay for Conner, before quick-hitting KSW and ONE Championship bets, and then rounding the whole thing out by breaking down the biggest fight of the weekend: Jake Paul vs. Tommy Fury. Tune in for Episode 36 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another episode of No Betts Barred this time for UFC Vegas 70. Nikita Krilov taking on Ryan Spann. We've also got Bellator 291. We've got one championship on Prime Video 5, 6, something around there. It's the rematch John Leninker taking on FDA. It's a banger.

What else we got? We got KSW. We have Jake Paul versus. Tommy Fury. I mean... The biggest event of the weekend, baby. If you're looking to bet on combat sports, this is the weekend to do it. You know, not the greatest UFC card.

I can say that every week. But here's the thing. We're about to hit the stretch. We're about to hit a magical stretch here moving forward after this week. I mean, we're... We got six, seven weeks of bliss coming up after we get through this one. So sprinkle your investments across the various promotions. Enjoy the weekend.

and then once we get into March and April, man, it's time to hit the ground running. Yeah, man, we, this is, this is the calm, right? Like, we are about to have, I mean, do we even need to talk about 285? I mean, that's... 285, I like, is one of my most anticipated UFC cards I've experienced in a long time. 280 I was very excited for, international fight week last year, 276 I was very excited for.

Uh, 285, I am really, really excited for. Yeah, man, 285 is, uh, it's, it's one of the few. I don't get all that pumped, honestly, about fight cards anymore. Just too many of them have been doing this too long, but 285 gets the juices flowing. And then we get 26 right after it, basically. Two weeks. We get, bro, we're going. Gap week filled with, with Piotr Yon, by the way, fighting Rod Valshili.

unbelievable fight. That's something like legitimate when we're talking about a fight night card. And then 286, I mean, March is just straight nonsense because we end it with Veris Santagin. Yom C. San Antonio. Also can't sleep on the fact that Marabian is in Vegas, but it's not in the apex, which is just huge. So that'll be in front of the crowd. It's just like, I think they're titling it just U.S.

Vegas. I love it. Like Vegas 69. Yeah. You got to love the Vegas name, despite having had like 10 million cards in Vegas. But we're claiming this is UFC Vegas. This is the one. In future years when we talk about this card, it'll be, you remember that one fight card in Vegas?

Ah, you know the one. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Why they don't just call it UFC Apex? Because that's what the number is. Like, let's just go with that. Regardless, 285, banger. Fight night after that. Good card.

286, banger. Fight night after that, good card. Week off, 287. Week off 287. Just a stretch. Then we get Arnold Allen Max Holloway in Kansas City. I'm going to be at that one. Oh, shout out.

That's going to be amazing. It is. So it actually worked at my sister lives in Kansas City, and it's very convenient. I was planning on going the week after that event. You love Kansas City. I saw your tweets last time you were there. You love that place. It is very cold place.

but I'm running my marathon there the weekend after Hollow Allen. And so then they were like, Holloway Allen's going to be in Kansas City. I was like, I was already going to be there. So I moved my flight around heading out early early. Oh,

you're spending a whole week in KC. I'm spending like almost two at this point. Let's go. Let's go. Go through that. Go through Fight Week. Stay there, run a marathon the next week.

A little barbecue post-marathon action. So there's going to be so much barbecue just all around. Allen versus the Almighty versus the blessed. I mean, this is going to be, you can maybe get some Super Bowl champions gear. Shout out to the Chiefs. Oh, yeah. You know, see Arrowhead. Just do all the things.

The last time I was there was a little blues game, maybe go to a blues game, huh? Is that their name? The hockey team. St. Louis. Yeah. St. Louis. I'm sorry. I think they're the Kansas City Royals.

Yeah, sorry. How far is St. Louis from Kansas City? That's not terribly far, but not. far enough. Sis, on the Missouri side, the Kansas side. I'm not a geography guy. That's not where my strength lies. Yeah, always interesting to me how part of the city is in Missouri.

You would think Kansas City would be smack dab in the middle of the state. Yeah. So I think she actually lives on the Missouri side. Shout out. A hundred percent. Shout out to Missouri. And shout out to the UFC because we're getting some announcements for 288 as well in just stacked up.

I mean, this... Looking pretty good. We can complain about these fight nights and these... Not even the fight nights. We can complain about these Apex cards. They're making up for it in a big way with these pay-per-views. And I kind of like it that way. Like, sneaky.

Like, I hate having to go through these cards. But I like the big feel. I like where all eyes are on the sport for these pay-per-view cards. I'm with you on that. I just... Mine has never been that the pay-per-views are bad. My opinion is that we... could just do with fewer of the fight night cards and then like because the highs are high and i will

give them the credit that they deserve the pay-per-view lineup this year it's looking stronger than last years i mean last year we had daz ferguson which was supposed to be daz chemayev this time last year we were getting ready for uh covington mazvado yeah exactly covington mazvadoe it's just it the quality has been much, much higher this year. It's a superb. I mean, I cannot wait for it. Last week, UFC Vegas 69, that combined with the Wood Laura boxing fight, I broke completely even.

Oh, wow, that's wonderful. See, here's the bad part, though. I started the night 5-0 and then lost every bet after that, so it felt like a bad losing week. Starting out 5 and O, I was like, oh, this is going to be one of those weeks where it's like up six, seven units, like big bounce back. Start counting those checks. Oh, man, I was like, thinking first breakthrough at 2023. Like we're back, baby.

Not to be, man. I'm still running like just very mediocre so far in 2023. I think I'm down like four units for the year. Yeah. I mean, I'm waiting for that breakthrough card where everything's just going green for me. I am I'm in a different but similar boat I had another losing week last week just this is a safe space right we're in the circle let's get it out get it out get it out I'm down about five five and a half units this year and I got it I hate the year reset I hate it

it's it's been tough because I had some ups then I had the really bad week at 284 and then another loser here and it's just I gotta be honest I'm violating one of the big rules and that's I think that that's why I'm where I'm at right now Connor you know we did the rules episode and you you proffered a great rule one of one of the most important rules it's to do the work

and I gotta be honest I've been kind of half-assing it this year I haven't oh wow these cards haven't spoken to me an admission of guilt on on the podcast live In Missions of Gil. And, you know, 284, I did my best to actually do the research for that one. But that was just a tough car, and I kind of overextended myself. But last week, I'm just straight up at that fight. And I, it did not move mountains.

It didn't move anything for me. And so I just kind of, just kind of half-assed. I took some shots at some things that I wasn't, didn't really have any concept or knowledge about. And I paid the piper, you know, lost everything except for the flyweight under. Usually what happens. That's what happens. If you're just throwing darts. If you're just guessing, you know, doesn't always hit.

And so I like some of the guesses, flyweight unders, stay hidden. God, it's such a fun bet. It's never lost. It's unbelievable. Heavyweight overs, that wasn't, honestly, that was the least electric heavyweight over of all time. That fight couldn't even be made. interesting by the over is like I'm cashing this almost immediately. Yeah.

And so, you know, and then Jessica and Drogh, I feel like maybe I should have seen seen that coming. Maybe we should have seen that one coming. Yeah. That was a difference between a winning and a losing week, basically. Hindsight's 2020 on that, you know, the signs were there. Blanche feels the real deal. I do have to say, you know, anyone who made that bet, great call.

I do have to say it felt like on like MMA gambling Twitter afterward, it was like the dividing line of whether or not you are like a good researcher good. They like to call them handicappers. Like that's the dividing line. If you're on Blanchefield, you're legit. If you're on Androge, you are a square. That's what it felt like on Twitter afterwards. Yeah.

It's tough, man. It's tough. That's about all there is to say. I think the hardest part is I have been putting in the work. I have been putting in the research and then these losing weeks, they just sting that much more. Shout out to Zach Powell guy, I just have to say. The clinch work there was phenomenal, phenomenal for that under two and a half.

That was just a pantalizing watch. I loved every second of that. It was definitely more and more frustrated as every minute went on as it killed two parles. Yeah. It's tough. And old Jordan Wright, no longer with the UFC after that one. So, oh, no, let's not. forget Prokneo Knight just.

Oh, banger. Banger for sure. Looking at that fight saying, there's no way that this fight doesn't end in the finish, I mean. Pretty sure the over-under was set at one and a half, and it was like even money on each side. So shout out to that. But here's the good news. Here's the good news, because I've been at this game

for quite some time now. Coming up on about the 10-year mark of this, every cold streak, there's a hot streak waiting right around the corner. That's the good news, man. I hope that you're right. I'm going to go ahead and assume it's not this week for me.

Yeah, maybe not this week. Who knows when it's going to be able. We do have that March stretch coming up. I just need to survive until March. That's my game plan right now. If you stick to the plan, if you stick to the work, the hot streak is coming. I know that to be true. That is a fact of life every single time.

Every time I've run cold, the hot streak has come around the corner. And then you got to remember that when you get hot. Can't get too cocky because that. The next cold streak is waiting right around the corner as well. This is a game of highs. This is a game of lows. It's a roller coaster. And I can't wait till we're hitting that like, yep, there it is.

Five straight winning weeks, baby, because it is coming. I mean, it needs to become. We're almost through February and just haven't been the highs yet. So hopefully March, March is his lights out. Maybe March is the elusive perfect week coming, you know? I can't even talk perfect weeks. I mean, take it always. You got to put it out there.

In November, I essentially had like a quote-unquote perfect month. Every week was big-time profits. I think like November I was up like 21 units, which was pretty fantastic. Hopefully that's March. I'm hoping that's what March has in store for me. I mean, that would be ideal. I'm chasing the perfect week. It's like a hole in one.

You know, they don't ever happen. It is. But even if the rest of your round is dog shit, if you get the hole in one, you could shoot a 105 with the hole in one and be like, still got that ace. I just need this perfect week and it'll bring this whole year up for me. And the thing is, I've come so close. It's just like a hole in one. You get that, like, you get like an inch away.

You hit the pen, you hit the flag. I have come one bet. I think since I started doing this back in September of 2021, I think I've come one bed away four different times. And I'm talking like legitimate perfect weeks, not like having three bets and then being And like clean, sweet, easy work, folks. Like, it's like, I'm talking like when you have like seven singles and two parles. And it's like, all right, did it.

Perfect week. Didn't miss one up 10 units. Well, here's the hope that this week will be the perfect one. I don't think it's going to be for me. I tried to be conservative this week, you know, looking ahead to the big business month of March. Also, it's really hard for me to get a read on a lot of these fights. So I've got bets down. Certainly got too many different options out here.

Well, let's dive right in. You got into one in KSW. I didn't even think to start looking at those. Oh, yeah. I might be tailing some KSW action because got on them. As much as we're gassing up, the UFC, KSW is still my favorite promotion. KSW is the best promotion in mixed martial arts. I maintain this firmly.

Please stop sleeping on KSW. It is one of the most fun promotions out there. It's always on in the afternoon because it's usually taking place in Poland or East and Europe. The production value is high. The production is insane. I mean, I love how the ring girl has like the flag when they started out. Like it's like so overdone. And the biggest key, the violence is cranked up to like 11.

Like if you got a 10 fight KSW card, I'm going to go ahead and just promise you seven are not going to go to a decision. Like these, it's just knockout, sock out, submissions left and right. Like, I, big fan of KSW. I mean, I'm excited to hear what action you've got down because I may have to, may have to join you just. One's a parlay piece and one's a single. They're both on the main event. But we can dive into that after UFC Vegas 70.

Let's start with the main event. It is a light heavyweight bout. Nikita Krilov taking on Ryan Span. Right now you can have Krilov for minus 170, Ryan Span coming. back at plus 145. You know, trying to keep you tight, trying to make sure it's bets that I like. Not, like, I can't come to a solid side in this one. Like, it's just like Ryan Span has been looking really good of late, but like he's always

liable to get finished. Nikita Krilov, like, he's probably the more technical fighter, probably the better grappler as well. but just like watching the tape, I just couldn't come to a sound side. Like I feel like if I had to play one, it would be Ryan Span inside the distance. But I never got around to that.

I played the under one and a half just because it's a Ryan Span fight. 13 of his last 15 have gone under the one and a half. Crylov also sneaky. Only four of his 38 fights have ever gone to a decision. So like these two dudes, both finishers, both can get finished. I like the under one and a half here.

I was hoping to hear different things from you. Would you play the over? No, no, I don't have the overs on this one. I have under three and a half as a parley piece. I do as well. Alternate fight line. Do you like this is one of those like Derek Lewis type fights? You know, we always say like the if this fight went to a decision, I'd be shocked.

If this fight went to a decision, like I would be stunned. It would be very surprising. I'm disappointed because I wanted you to push me one way or another on the main event. There are two outcomes for this fight. Well, that's the thing. Originally, I kind of like Span. I was like, Span and a underdog, it's okay, like plus $1.45. You know, and then I was like, am I, and this is the problem.

This is the problem with having the cold streak. I'm doubting myself. Oh, it's crept into my mind, too, dude. doubting myself. In my mind, it's the worst. My initial thought was, I Span 145, listened to the last time out, aside from, you know,

just looking like a world beater against Dominic Graz, you know, he gives that interview, that post-fight interview where he's like, yeah, so I never trained hard or tried in mixed martial arts before, and now I'm trying and you're seeing the results. And, you know, I tend to take fighters at the word. And Ryan Span,

a lot of talent, a lot of talent. So if he's now taking this seriously, that should be enough. But then I think Nikita Kailoff, he's got that dog in him. Dude, is tough. He's got the gas tank. He's got the edge in pace and output. If Span can't get him out of there with the guillotine or with the big, big shot, then Krilov in round three is probably just going to put it on him,

round three if we even get to the fourth and fifth so i wanted you to come and be like ryan span rindspan's the dude he's going to do the thing he's going to do it and i was like hell yeah 145 let's go this is how you claw out of the hole and now i i i don't know if i can place a bet on the main event if i'm placing a bet on a side it would be ryan span inside the distance plus 175 that's what i would do yes i don't there's i strongly strongly doubt that this man is going to go to a decision with the klyloff particularly the way cryloff fights i think if anyone's going to win by a decision it's it's going to be krilyloff yeah

i don't i don't think this is going to happen because i think if kreliov wins it's he just kind of keeps putting it on span and span can't can't explain is it just comes in and he he's looking for finishes and if he doesn't get one he puts himself in a position where he does get finished yeah get or get got baby and that's what it's all about uh maybe a double chance could maybe look at like a span by TKO or Krylov by I don't know I mean it's tough because Ryan Span like going back and watching the tape

there's a ton of mean guillotine dude that guillotine finishes and he just like he just is just like nope I'm doing the guillotine now takes their head and just locks that thing up so tight like it is it really is a nasty one I think he's got like three or four in the UFC at 12 of his career wins are by submission which is not what you would imagine for Ryan Span Man, 21 wins. 12 by tap. He's pretty sick on the feet, too, man. Like, if he's actually serious, like, if he's, if he's being real about this, like,

oh, yeah, I just started training thing, uh, like, this could be something we look back on it. Like, yeah, it should have played Spanning. See, there we, now you've done it. Now you've done it for me, Connor. Now you've done it. I don't, you can't doubt yourself. You just got to play.

You got to play from the heart, just firing bullets. Ryan Span inside the distance. What are we looking at on the odds for that right? Uh, Draft King's got plus 165 right now. Ryan Span plus, well, it's not that much of a difference. I was to say, actually probably, 20 points is probably not worth it.

Yeah, as well, just. Yeah, I'm just going to take Ryan Span plus 145. Because if it's inside the distance is getting me 20 points, that's might as well just take the straight under. I'm doing it. I'm believing in him. I'm believing in Ryan Span. I'm going to be cheering for him.

Why not? We're going to, I'm probably going to feel like an idiot, but. You know, we talked through it. We talked through it. We got to a good place. That's where I'm at.

I'm still not going to play a side. This is me being, you know, tight, keeping it tight, being, you know, being responsible. It's mature and smart. I'm not. And that's okay. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay.

Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. So that is the main event. Let's keep it rolling to the co-main. Man, I cannot wait for this one. There's a couple fights on this card that I'm very much looking forward to, and this is one of them.

It is the co-main event. Middleweight out. Andre Monez taking on Brendan Allen. Right now you can have Monez for minus 205. Brennan Allen coming back at plus 175. If you've listened to this podcast, you know Munez is in that, elite handful of guys that I'm just going to back no matter what it's the munis the Jelton Almedas the Jack Della Madelanas the Jalen turners the Jack Shores of the world the

Kikara Francis there's I didn't realize you were Jalen Turner guy that's exciting wow really I feel like we discussed that before the Brad Riddell fight um I don't yeah well I guess sure Brad Riddell's like are you going to be backing Turner against Matush Gamrott? Brad Nadell is a very different kind of a point. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, no, I'm going to have to. It's a blind, it's a blind play. I didn't realize he was a blind play guy for you. I mean, I love it.

I think Jalen Turner is a future title challenger. I mean, can we talk about one of the coolest things in the UFC is the fact that he goes by tarantula and then he shaves the spider web into his hair? Yeah. I mean, all the time stuff. Like, it's just the coolest thing. Jalen Turner's great. So excited to hear your Jailant Torn.

Turner guy and an Andre Muniz guy because you know it's been a while since since old Andre's been in the gauge Yeah I mean it's been a few months When did he fight you right? 276 so July Yeah love that

It's been a while Love that so I mean pretty much the way that I break this down Is went back and watched the Jacob Malcun fight he got seven takedowns against Brennan Allen I mean some people scored that one for Alcun and then I mean last time out against Jocco 15 seconds in, he slips on a kick and he ends up on his back. Obviously, you know, he's able to find good position out of that because he's fighting Christoph Jock. Not sure he would have the same

successes against Andre Muniz's third-degree black belt, one of the most lethal jiu-jitsu practitioners in the world. I mean, if it stays standing, like, yeah, Brennan Allen, there's a very good chance he just kind of rolls through Monez. Like, Monez isn't a giant threat on the feet. But if it hits the mat, like I think. I think Munez is just going to be able to go to work. And every single fight Andre Monez has had in the UFC has hit the mat at some point. And I mean, just looking at Brennan Allen, he's got a 50% takedown defense. I already mentioned the 7 of 14 from Alcun.

Kyle Dawkins went three of five on takedons. Kevin Holland and Sean Strickland were able to take him down. I mean, I think if Monez can get a couple takedowns here, he's going to be able to either do what he did to Uriah Hall and just winning a dominant decision or be able to get a submission. We see this one identically. Big entre munez guy. I was surprised the line was this close to me. Minas 2.25 is where it's sitting right now on draft kings.

I thought me needs to be a much, much higher favorite. And so I thought about using it as a parley piece, but minus 225, that's still good enough for me to just take him straight. So, yeah, I am all in. on on andre munice i mean let's just keep it rolling monice like i mean he's he's just love watching the guy work it's it's he's a bad he is i would pick him to beat uh peheta wow wow he's this dude is uh i think this is a big year for him if he can put together the wins that he is capable of and finally get those opportunities brinan allen feels

honestly like a little bit of a step back for him right like uh i don't even know what the ufc rankings are right now but i know muniz is ranked i don't know if alan actually is ranked he's not so he's fighting back uh and given his streak you would have hoped that he would get somebody above him you know wanted to leads a something like that so he can continue making but i think this is the last fight back for him and then he's going to get derrick bronson somebody like that and start to start to make the climb I like that. I like the idea that. So let's keep it rolling then.

We are both on Andre Muniz. Next up, it is a heavyweight bout. Augusto Sakai taking on Tontail Mays. Right now you can have Augusto Sakai coming in at minus 135. Dantel Mays coming back at plus 115. I mean, pick your poison here. Augusto Sky is coming off four straight losses and Dantel Maze is Dantel Maze. I mean, I was Queen B of the Dontail Mays hive going into UFC 277 against Omdi.

I basically staked my whole reputation on Dontail Mays. And he let me down. I mean, he let me down. In your defense, you didn't know Hamdi was on the gear. Yeah, I mean, what do you want me to do? Homdy cheated. Like, I mean, I can't. There should be no contest.

Bet that should come back. But obviously, Donthale Mays had a lot of opportunities. to grapple. He felt like he had a lot of success there, and he just didn't capitalize on any of them. And any time it felt like he had Hamdi in trouble, he was like, no, do your thing. For that reason, I cannot trust my money with Antal May. You should never do that. On the other side, I mean, Augustus Sakai in a matchup that feels like a step down in competition

that he should probably win. I don't know how much I want to trust my money with a guy that is coming off four straight losses in which you got finished in every single one of them. I really looked at the under for a while. I know Don Tal Maze is kind of a wrestler grappler, but like I feel like Suckeye, if he's going to win, it's going to be my knockout,

but ultimately I decided to stay away on this one. Well, you know I didn't because it's a heavyweight fight, baby. It's a heavyweight fight. I've gotten over at one and a half. Oh, that's tasty. I know over one and a half, over two and a half,

I'd still take it because that's what I do, but I would feel less good about it. Over one and a half, look, average fight time for Dantel Mays, 1147 for Sakai, 1042. Love it. You're absolutely right. Sikai has lost four in a row. Two of those, he made over one and a half. And also those four were against Sergei Spivak, who we now know looks to be pretty dang good.

Tie to Evasa, your guy, Tai to Ivasa. Oh, my guy. I love Ty. Love that. Gilesia Rosenstrike, who, you know, that was one second away from probably hitting over one and a half. This is the very last second of the first round. And you know how heavy weights go. If you get out of the first round, you got a great chance to just make it to the final scorecards.

And then Alist are over him. Like, that's a very different level of competition. I almost went five, four rounds with Alice there. Yeah. Very different level of competition. I, like you, could not possibly trust either a. Augusta Sakai or Dantel Mays with my money, but I can trust both of them to fight for more than seven and a half minutes.

There you go. I mean, I feel like I've been seeing some people just unloading the clip on Augusta Sakai this week. But if you were going to bet this, I do think Sakai is the bet. I think this is a pretty hefty step down in competition for him. It is. And, I mean, you know, the Marcin Taibir win doing a lot of work for him. But he should win this.

And this is probably a bet where I'll... I'll look back and be like, huh, maybe I should have played him at minus 135, but instead of saying, I can't, just can't do that right now, not at the state I'm currently in. Can't be laying negative money on Augusta Sakai. That's not how you make smart bets. Yeah, so let's, I mean, shout out to everyone about it, Sakai. I hope you guys win and prosper because, you know, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, you're bolder, than we are.

I'm anti-Dontel-Mez of this one. I mean, you got to be bold. Scared money, don't make money. You got to remember that. Let's keep it rolling. It is a women's flyweight bout. The return of Tatiana Suarez taking on Montana de la Rosa. We have not seen Tatiana Suarez in the Octagon in three years.

Three years and nine months. Her last fight came against Nina Nunez when Nina Nunez was Nina Hanseroff, and she was the third ranked straw weight in the UFC at the time. A lot has changed since then. Her opponent. there are kids who can walk and talk and, like, engage with you personally who were not alive the last time Tatyano Svara fought. So much has transpired. Yeah, we didn't even know what COVID-19 was the last time Tatiana Swans.

I had no idea. I mean, all were just living life, coughing on people, going to work sick. We definitely didn't know what Fight Island was. So shout out to that. Yeah, it's been a minute, obviously, injuries, health issues. She's back, though, and she's still fairly young, 32. She is moving up to flyweight in this one. Since the last time Tatiana Suarez fought, Montana de la Rosa, she has fought six times.

She is two, three, and one in that span. If Tatiana Suarez is... That's not great. If Tatiana Suarez is any resemblance of her old self, this is going to be one-way traffic. This is like, I had to just go back after watching. a couple of her fights of just pure dominance. And like, we're talking against women that are at the upper echelons of the division now, like finishing Alexa Grasso in the first round,

uh, just ground and pounding Carlos bars into the oblivion in the third round. Take a listen to these stats. 3.37 striking differential tied for the best in women's straw weight history with Yon Young Jacek. Decent. Uh, 1.4-5 strikes absorbed per minute.

that is the fewest in straw weight history. 63% takedown accuracy. That's the highest in straw weight history. And 6.47 takedons landed per 15 minutes. That is also the highest in straw weight history. If she is any resemblance of the Tatiana Suarez we saw three years and nine months ago, this will be a dominant performance.

I mean, I think that there is absolutely no reason not to believe that she won't be uh she's dead i i i didn't know this uh her and patchy mix boyfriend well i had no idea i mean that you know keeping her around the game a lot of grappling talent right that's what i'm saying like i mean you know got to be learning a thing or two from old patchy he's about to fight for the belt and bellator uh so yeah i mean tautiana suarez i par later up what do you want me to say okay i mean i've been i've been anticipating this return for God knows how long, I'm not going to not parlay or up. So also, also in that parlay, it's a four-leg parlay.

I've got the span Kirlov under three and a half. I've got Tatiana Suarez. Okay, okay. You want to just finish it off now because I have the same parlay, but it's only three legs. I think one of, I think I might have your third. I'm going to just go ahead and assume it because we're square schmucks, please. One of these, I was like, this feels like a common. her leg that I can I can just steal.

And I see that you also have some notes on this fight, so we'll get to it. But I think we might be three, I think we may be sympathico on this parlay. I think my third leg is going. It's going to be one of years. Yeah, I mean, I'm eating chalk for the next two weeks. Like, I don't even know what. I don't know who eats chalk, but whoever that is, I'm at. Yeah.

Come me a kindergartner because I am shoving chalk in my mouth. I have a monster chalk parlay. for for 285. I actually have Tatiana Suarez parlayed up with some people for 285. I mean, I'm okay with people. I love that. I love the future parles. I mean, sometimes you just have to.

Sometimes you just have to. And this next week is the week that I'm going to do it. I'm perfectly fine with that. So yeah, Tatiana Suarez, I mean, unless something has changed over the last few years, I mean, this is her fight to lose. So here's my other thought. I don't have this bet down. I was sort of eyeballing Suarez inside the distance because it's plus 130.

Oh, you're crazy if you don't think I eyeballed it. I really thought about it. I thought it would be negative money because, you know, minus $7.50 or whatever. Plus $130 for Suarez to get a finish here, the obvious concern is the huge layoff, right? And Mattan Della Rosa has proven to be relatively durable in her career. But still, like, if this were, if they were, if they were. writing this four years ago and I were getting these odds, I'd be like, payday, just lock it in, plus money for Swar as to get the finish.

I don't know if it's, I'm, again, having a little bit of lack of confidence, given the way things are going. So I just want to feel you out. How you felt about it? Here's the thing. All right, here's the thing. If I'm going to play it, I'm probably just going to put a half unit on it. And it will really frustrate me if I have her.

like multiple parleyes and she just wins by like dominant decision. Just because then it'll like feel like a little bit of a sting. I don't know. I might still put a half unit on it. I might just believe in it. I'm, I've decided right now as we're talking through it because I don't have her in multiple parlays.

I just have this one parlay, which I feel like she's maybe the lockiest of all locks. I don't want to tell you how to do your business, Connor. But when you're doing the parlay pals, wait, do you not get to do parley pals this week? No, I do. I do because it was at three now it just goes back to four. So you reset to four? Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I feel like Tatiana Suarez is going to be the number one pick on the board. I can guarantee you someone is going to take Tatiana Suarez. It's going to be the first pick. So that's something I've had to start doing is like thinking through what people are going to do on the parlay pals. So I don't get over exposed on stuff. I can promise you Tatiana Suarez is going to get picked. I have her in one parlay and then I have her in the big time future combined with 285. parlay. Damn. You know, there's always the banana peel.

That's why I almost didn't make my parlay a four-legger. Four-legs, you can never win a four-leg parlay. God love the parley pals, but you can never win four legs. They're impossible. I might do it. I might do Tatiana Suarez inside the distance. I'm taking the shot because I'm envisioning a Dom Cruz's return. When he took that four years off and came back in just 30,

second demolition. Like, that's what I'm envisioning for Suarez. She comes back. She makes a statement. I am back. I am a title threat. Let's give me one more. A title eliminator next.

And it's off to the races. So I'm doing it inside the distance. Let's go. I haven't locked it in, but I'm strongly considering it. I like the idea of that. It's sketchy. It's going off of assumptions. But, I mean, it is, it is Tatiana Suarez.

I mean, she is hopefully back. All right, let's keep it. make assumptions about. You are not wrong in that aspect. Let's keep it rolling. We're sticking on the main card. It is a welterway belt. Mike Malat taking on Johann Linens.

Right now, you can get Malat for minus 215. Linus coming back at plus 185. I mean, this one's probably going to be fireworks. Like two dudes with knockout power. Can't really pick a side here. Like I like Mike Malott. minus 2.15 is is kind of a lot to pay for a guy that was struggle. I played him pretty big against Mickey Gall and like there were a couple dicy moments

despite him getting the first round finish. Like he did do that. But like there were a couple moments where I was like, oh, this is this is kind of sketchy. And like if line ass catches him, I mean, he could put him out. What I did do, I took fight does not go to a decision at minus 225 a lot. Nine of his 10 having a new decision. line has seven of his 10 have not in between the two 20 fights 14 ended in the first round feel good that someone is probably going to get starched here uh i love your read on it uh i just don't

have any any action i considered mila i do think milat's probably going to win this fight but he's just had too many sketchy moments uh i reached out to our friend our good friend alexander cayley because you know this is a little bit of canadian on canadian violence not that many Canadians in the UFC roster these days, and yet they decided to match up two of them. So I was like, let's reach out to my favorite Canadian, see if he's got the inside scoop. And he was just like, honestly, it's hard for me to know. I wouldn't feel confident either way. So I'm taking that as gospel.

Yeah, there's the gospel. I can't bet either of them. So I will just be a fan watching this one. Shout out to, shout out to A.K. Lee for the Canadian gospel there. Quick breaking news. Just got a notification from Best Fight Odds and Fight Odds. They've released odds for the Jalen Turner, Dan Hooker bout. Oh, that has since been canceled.

But Jalen Turner was a substantial favorite in that one. If this was what the line was going to be, I would have come close to emptying the account on it. Dan Hooker minus 175. Oh, my God. I would have been all of my money. Yeah. I would have been so much money on Jalen Turner. If they had actually given us that line, holy smokes.

That is. Why they even just released that? I don't know. The fight's been canceled for like a week and a half. But yeah, shout out the best fight odds. They just wanted to hurt your feelings. Oh, my gosh. To make you think about what could have been.

I would have been typing in the number so fast to try to get that line that like I would have just put hundreds. It would have been. Maybe they just typoed it. Maybe those are the odds for Gamrodt Turner. Because that one, that's what it is. I actually already played Jalen Turner. Those are those odds are already out.

Let me, let me see what I got. That line feels about. outright for that fight i would still take turner but i would not unload the clip at that no i'm definitely not unloading clip i put one unit on him at plus 165 uh yeah yeah i feel comfortable with that yeah i mean i'm i'm all on the turner train uh i got a few i got a i got a I got a few other bets down. Zero line. Ciro gone line keeps moving up.

We'll have to talk about that next week. We still have plenty of fights to get through. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. We got Rick coming on next week. Going to have... Oh, yeah. Let's go, Ricky. But that's for next week.

Let's keep it rolling here. Final fight on a six-fight main card. It is a lightweight belt. Eric Gonzalez, the Ghost Pepper, taking on Trevor, peak right now. You can have Trevor Peak for minus 190. Eric Gonzalez coming back plus 160. Another banger in my opinion. This is probably another fight that is not going to go to a decision like should be fireworks. In terms of who I'm picking, Eric Gonzalez, I mean, he's owing to in the

UFC both times he got finished. Can't really say that he's impressed me in any way. He's also four and four in his last eight. And it just feels like going back and and looking at it, it feels like every time he takes a step up, every time he gets away from those, you know, like six and five guys, he ends up catching an L. Peak really only watched his contender series fight in the fight before that. But he looked pretty good. He was like a plus 160 dog on Contender Series.

Seven and O, all seven wins by knockout. The concern there is like maybe he's just a one-trick pony. He doesn't have any cardio if things get rough. But I mean, I'm not sure. I'm not sure at Gonzales, the Ghost Pepper, is full. UFC quality. I did take Peek inside the distance minus 125.

Oh, interesting. So we do not have the same parlay like then because this is also in the parlay. I'm just taking the under two and a half here. It's a minus 350. Nice. So similar reads. My concern is Trevor Peek

doesn't impress me a lot. And certainly, Er Gonzalez has not been very impressive. but a guy making his debut who shows a lot of things in a game that I'm not particularly enthused by. But the man is, he is rugged, he is going to come, he's going to put it on. I mean, you go watch him fight Kamaworthy, Warren Smith, any of those pre-contender series fights over in Aries. He's just chucking them from the word go. He is getting after it.

he's yelling, he's pumping up the crowd, he's trying to make it a dog fight. And there's a reason that the man's never seen the third round. I have no idea if his cardio can hold up. I suspect it can't, given the pace and the way he fights. And so I decided to go a little safer and just take the under two and a half as a parlay piece because I'd be pretty surprised if Trevor Peek went to his first decision this weekend. I would also be surprised that I am looking at a violence parlay that I can get into later. And I very much like the fight does not go to a decision to be added to it in this one.

So yeah, we're pretty much aligned, but I'm just picking aside there. Just different bets. Do expect violence. I mean, should be two pretty, I mean, three, honestly, pretty, like the main card is not that bad. Like three, two fun fights, and then the return of Tatiana Suarez. Then you get some heavyweight sluggers in there. And then you get Andre Monez and then Krylov's ban. The main card is much better than last week's.

Undercard, a bit of a tougher hang. It leaves a little bit to be on the side there. A tougher hang this weekend. All right, well, let's do it. Let's get into the undercard. We're not going to talk about every fight, but we are going to talk about some of these. If we're not talking about it, that means we have no action on it

and don't really feel any particular way. Let's start a women's flyway bout, Gabriella Fernandez, taking on Jasmine. Jazz the vicious. Right now you can have Fernandez for my, minus 125. Jazz DeVicious coming back at plus 105. I did play Gabriella Fernandez,

just watching some of her LFA tape, where she is the flyweight champion. I just feel like she's a solid kickboxer. I think she's just a better striker than Jasmine Jazz DeVicious. I think she's going to get the better of the striking exchanges. And I think really the path of victory for Jasmine is to get this to the ground and just go to work from there. But I don't know how much success she's going to have

that case. I mean, if you go back and watch that, Natalia's Silva fight, like, she got beat from pillar to post, like 30, 26th. And another thing that I like about Fernandez in this fight, this is one of the few times that Jasmine Jazz DeVicious is not going to have a massive size advantage. Like, she's almost in all of her fights. She's four or five inches taller with a four or five inch reach advantage. Every time she goes out there, Fernandez is pretty much the exact same size as her. I think she's a better striker. Can Jasmine get it to the ground? I don't know. I mean, it's not like she's like an incredible takedown artist.

Natalia Silva, who's much smaller stuff to all six of her takedown attempts. Yeah, I'll side with the debutante here to get it done. I agree. I just don't have any bets. I just don't feel confident enough to bet on Gabriella making her debut. But in general, I think she's a better striker. and probably can. The physicality argument I hadn't considered.

It's a good one, but I'm just, I'm trying to be a little smarter because I have a very stupid bet on the prelims that. Oh, fantastic. So I'm trying to not overexpose myself because I already had one very dumb bet that I felt compelled to make. Fantastic. Then let's keep it going. We will move on to a men's flyway about O'Day Osborne taking on Charles Johnson.

It is a flyway. about. I mean, how can he's... 125 pounds and under? What's been going on lately, man? I mean, it's just like... What are we, 80 in one on the year? I think we're 7 in 1, and like, they just don't even make a sweat. Like, it's just like first round finish.

And the one that lost was a road the UFC fight, and it still did not go the distance. I mean, it's just... It's incredible stuff. It's the most satisfying bet in all of sports right now. Charles Johnson, he's been known to be a perpetrator of the flyweight unders of the state of last time out though. He revoked his enemy of the flyweight under card. He's like, I don't want this anymore.

Can history repeat itself? Can history repeat itself? In my opinion, I think it can. Because if it's not Charles Johnson, it's O'Day Osborne. And if you go back and look at O'Day Osborne's record, 10, 10, Jed, of his last. This man is doing great work. I would unders. He's putting in the effort.

This man is top-tier young talent. Like, we love O'Day Osborne at Flywood Under Corporation Incorporated. Yeah, Flywood Under Corporation Incorporated. So straight shooter with middle management written all over. I mean, F-U-C-I. There it is right there. Ten of his last 11 have ended in the first round. Yeah, we talked about Johnson, but nine of his 13 wins have come.

via finish. What am I going to do? Am I going to just be like, yeah, you know, I'm not going to play this. Like the regret that I would feel, I would take it to my deathbed if I didn't play a Flyweight Under

at this point and it hit. I just shout out to Flyweight Under's because we talked about having a tough year so far, you know, it would be worse without Flyweight Under's. If I didn't have Flyweight Under's, I'd have nothing, nothing gambling anymore. So flyweight unders.

Let me also Yankee chain to this. I don't have a bet down. I'm kind of feeling some type of way about O'Day Osborne, though. Underdog, plus 155. I don't hate that, dude. I saw it. I saw it earlier this week at like plus 170. I was like, man, Charles Johnson.

If this is 170, I'd for sure be on it. But he's down to 135, and I just don't kind of feels. I don't know. I didn't know if you had it. I would have them like, oh, let's tag team it. But if you're just on the underserved. maybe we just stay on the unders. Yeah, I'm just going to ride the under

because then there's a very real world that Charles Johnson wins this by decision and like double hitters, as great as double hitters feel, as just incredible as those feel, double losers hurt twice as much. They feel like quadruple losers, really. Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, it just hurts so bad to get a double loser. It's like, I was so wrong about that fight. You know, you've convinced me. I'm out. I'm not taking it. I know to Osborne. I won't make the bet. But if he does move up a little higher,

if he comes back to the plus 170, might still just have to and risk it for the biscuit, you know. Smart man. Smart man. Let's get to the last fight we're going to talk about on this. Oh, we have two more added one. Oh, oh, oh, which one was it?

Tell me. It's on the dock. It's under the Selecky-Deden fight that we're about to talk about. Yeah. Yeah, I'm trying to update this bad boy. Garrett Armfield versus Jose Johnson. Yeah, we could have just said that, you know. All right.

There it is now I'm seeing it. But let's get into Joe Selecki versus Carl Deaton the third. When I first read it, it looked like Joe Selecki versus Carl Deaton three. This will be the third time they're facing off. That is not true. Right now, Joe Selecki, going for minus 520. Deaton coming back plus 410. I mean, dude, this is very, very short notice getting about seven days,

or I mean, 10 days for Carl Deaton. 17 and 5 But let's get a little bit deeper on that 17 and 5 Let's really start Deep Let's start to deep Let's start to I thought I saw someone show up behind me I guess it was just a ghost in the studio with me

17 and 5 Yeah I mean he's he's 5 3 and 1 in his last 9 And let's go through the record of those five wins 7 and 8 16 and 8 5 and 26 And then he beat Nate Williams twice I need you to put some respect on Star Roberts Jr's name. I'm coming back to Star. Don't worry. Don't worry.

Nate Williams twice, once when Nate was 8 and 3, once when Nate was 9 and 4. In fact, if you want to dive even deeper, 14 of his 17 wins are against guys who currently have a record under 500. And don't you dare think, I just glanced over the man of the hour. I mean, this is getting close to our man over in the man that beat Gerald Mirchard. How am I slipping on his name? All time. Or 16 and 106. Give me a second.

Just a whole time. Right now, Star Roberts Jr. 5 and 28. Like, this man comes to play. And it, like, it feels like he, like, props up a decent amount of guys. Like, he's Dante Chiro. It's Jay Ellis. Jay Ellis.

The. the inevitable Jay Ellis. All time. Jay Ellis is. Yeah, I mean, Star Roberts Jr., he's coming in there

for one reason and one reason only, and that's to give you a dub. I mean, he's what? One, two, oh, Lord have mercy. Three,

four, five, six, seven, eight. It's a lot. It's a lot. He's one and thirteen.

The man, the, the winds are, are few and far between. There was a point where he was two and seven. He had to feel like he was on his way at that point after beating Ryan White Mountain. That just

sounds like a fake name. Rowdy Ryan White Mountain, four and 12. Isn't there a moment where your family just sits you down and it's just like, maybe this isn't it, man. I feel like if you get to 0 and 4,

like the family isn't just like maybe they're sitting there. It's just out there having fun. He likes to train, likes to compete, see how it goes out there having fun he has been finished in one two three four five six but think about how sweet those victories are

Connor think about how happy you and I have never known a happiness that Star Roberts did when he beat Robert Andrews one decision loss yeah when Star Robert beats Robert Andrews we all remember at the A town throwdown 15 like when he gets that win he sings in that rear naked in the second round against Andrew Roberts to move the four

to move to 5 and 26. You think he's like, it's done. The run starts now. No, I think he's just, I think he's in the moment. He's present and just relishing being alive in a way that we've never been. Because we've never lost 26 fights and then gotten the dub. You know, and that's, shouts to Star Roberts. Shout up to Star Roberts.

That's all we have to say. So, yeah, long story short, I'm playing Joe Selecky. Don't get cute. Come in here, grapple, win, and move on. Is this the third leg of the parlay? That's the third leg of my parlay as well. Boom. So it's the same parlay.

I just added the Pete Gonzalez under two and a half to get it to plus money. Just don't get cute, man. Just come in here. Blast the double leg, some in the first round. It should be that simple. I thought about playing a fight doesn't go to a decision at minus 170. Having gotten around to it, probably won't. I just don't.

I really don't want to be. be double exposed on Joe Selecky, Carl Deaton. I was going to say. I was going to say that's what I don't want to do. So that's that. Let's move on. Last fight we're going to get into on this UFC card, Bantamway, Bough, Garrett Armfield, taking on Jose Johnson.

Curious to hear what you got here, because right now, Garrett Armfield is a minus 145 favorite, and he is taking on Jose Johnson plus 125. I've got nothing on this fight. Considered the under, didn't take it. You tell me what you have. So remember earlier when I said,

have a dumb bet. It's this one. Made a dumb bet because my lizard brain can't get over one very important key statistical element. Garrett-onfield is 5-6 and Jose Johnson is six feet tall. Wow. Just a lifetime of difference in the size between these people. And at plus money, the truth is neither the guy is particularly good. I would say that Armfield is maybe the better fighter in general,

but it's not by leaps and bounds. They're both pretty young. They both have shown some ability, and we can, you know, we can parse how that goes, but we've seen that that big gap in size has just proven to be difficult for better fighters,

you know? What was the, Josian Nunez fought, Far Zern? Oh, man, yeah, yeah. And we talked about it going in, and I had a bet on Josiah Nunez. It was like, the size doesn't really matter.

She's just much, much better. And, buddy, that was the sweatiest. The size mattered so much. You later, like minus 500. And it was a complete sweat to a 29, 28, questionable. Yeah, very questionable. I was just like, and almost immediately, the first thing I thought when they actually stood in the cage, I was just like, I've made a huge mistake.

Yeah. I've made. as Jersey anewish is just whipping overhand rights and missing by a mile because she's tiny compares like I have I have miscalculated and so along those lines I just like he's six inches taller than this man this is going to look almost identical to that fight in some ways so granted armfield's better grappler has a more clear path but mostly mostly the man wants to be checking him and he's fought I went through the record.

Onfield has only fought guys, mostly he's fought guys around the same height as him. The tallest duties fought, David Onama, fought him twice, 5-11, 6 feet almost the same. Onama has two dubs over him. One is an amateur, one is a pro, and his most recent fight

was also the David Anama fight. So I'm just taking a shot a little bit in the dark here on the physical disparities at plus 135. I don't hate it. I don't, I mean, that's such a massive size.

It's enormous. It's really going to show in the cage. I mean, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That was it. It's not the smartest bet I've ever made.

It was like, I got to do some dumb things. I can't be all smart and logical. You might as well do some dumb things every once in a while. So that is the... You know I love to have a bet on the first fire of the night. I love to have a bet on the... Done like a curtain jerker. It's going to decide how you're going to go.

Start off strong or struggle from there. That's UFC Vegas 70. There's a bunch of action going on and other promotions. Bellator, 2-91. I have one bet in Bellator. Do you have any? I have a few, yeah.

Oh, you have a few. Well, two, two. I should have said two, one single, and I, you know, the chalk donkey parlay of the week. What do you have, please? I'm taking an underdog shot in the main event.

I'm taking Logan Storley. Nice. Logan Storley coming in at a, I'm sorry. I'm actually on Logan Storley by decision at plus 240. You know, he's fought Amosov once before, went to a, it was honestly maybe the most fun fight of Storley's career. Man's not all that interesting usually, but Amosov made it fun,

went to a good competitive split decision that was three, two years ago. And since then, Amasov fought Douglas Lima and it hasn't fought because I don't know if you knew. there's been a thing going on in Ukraine and he's been dealing with that. So long layoff from him, got a lot other things going in his mind and this is against a guy who already fought him

very competitively to a spitty. Underdog odds, plus 240, just felt like a value play. So plus 240, Logan's totally by decision. Plus 240, I don't mind that one bit. Yeah, Logan's not a man who finishes people. Yes, that is not what he does. I stayed away from that one just because, I mean, Amasov is 26 and O, obviously, the lay out.

It's pretty good. Create some questions. But, yeah, I don't hate that. Plus 240. That's a nice job. He's only 14 and one, and that one is Amasov. And it was a splitting. And it was a split.

So, yeah, I took Jeremy Kennedy over Pedro Crivalo, just watching back some of his fights. I considered that. Yeah, I mean, obviously the shoulder injury against Aaron Pico, that's the way he won. A big win. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, I mean, it was a big win. uh just the wrestling just watching back the sancho's fight the wrestling on on kennedy is just relentless man i i think that's going to going to cause problems for pedro so uh yeah that's slight favorite

here for for kennedy i played a minus 175 uh there's a little canadian action for i get in that one uh but yeah i'm i'm going to side with kennedy to get that one done and then uh the chalk mchalkington parley this is the one that auto actually do it the it's the squadian match parley, the absolute surely loser. Someone's going to cost it for us. But let's go through it. Let's start it off. Cassan Magamad Sharapov.

Right there, you should know that this is a lock. I mean, listen. Mademad in the name. And it ends of the Sharapov. Magamad Sharapov. I mean, fantastic. All right, so this might be maybe one of the toughest opponents. He's fighting Raphael Hudson, you know, three and four in his last seven.

was already fed to another Bellator up and comer and carrying Clark last time out where he was finished in the third round. Combined record of those three wins that I mentioned, six and ten. I think Sheriff I was going to get it done, undefeated prospect that of Russia. Next up, Kenny Mokohana. He is fighting Craig McIntosh, who is three and four in his pro career,

has never beaten an opponent with a win. Never beat an opponent with a professional win. And just a couple of fights go, he got ground and pounded by a guy who is 5 and 9 currently for his MMA record. So it feels like it's a setup match there for the Irishman fighting in Dublin, the undefeated prospect, Irishman fighting in Dublin in front of his home crowd. Feels like that's a setup. Next up, the Rog Kelly fighting Dorval Jordan 2 and 2. Dorval Jordan somehow has also never beaten an opponent with a win.

and he lost to a one and two guy. So yeah, shout out the Dorval Jordan. And then last but not least, the aforementioned Kieran Clark, he is fighting Leonardo Sennis, five and five and one in his last 11, and just a couple of fights ago. He lost to a one-and-one guy.

Feels like Bellator is doing their job. Now will their prospects do theirs? Probably not. I can assure you that a minus 900 favorite that a parlayed up is probably going to lose, but I did it anyway. Four legs minus 143.

How do you like that? How do you like those apples? That's plus EV in my book. That's plus EV in my book. You have just done all the best things right there. You parlayed Bellator favorites, a known, unknown failing strategy,

and you did four of them. Damn right. As we know, four leg parlays can never succeed. Yeah. I hope this hits for you. The funny thing is that they do hit. You just got to make sure, like, they are, like, the ultimate squash matches.

Like, you just, you have to make sure it's, like, Bell Tor is like, he has to win. Just give him someone that he can't lose again. Give him someone he cannot possibly screw this up against. Fight someone that has fought MMA before, but can't win a fight. But hasn't beaten literally a single person. The fact that two of these guys have never. beating anyone with a win is crazy to me. The fact that

Bellator was like, yep, Craig McIntosh is three and four and he got ground impounded by a five and nine guy sign him. It's crazy to me. Gotta get him. That's what they do. Belator 291, 18 fights. Yeah, it's because this is a Dublin thing.

They're farming this out to whatever the local promoter and SBG is. Is Craig McIntosh and SBG guy? I wouldn't shock me to all she is. No, he's not. guy. Yeah, it's not. But, oh, I'm sorry, it's the other, because Kenny,

Kenny Moquavana is, is an SVG guy. This is team SBG. We're putting on a bunch of SPG fighters and trying to get them dubs in Dublin, you know, that's okay. It is what it is. Respect it. Not tailing you at all on this one, though. Hopefully it works out, man.

That Bellator theme is going to hit, and it's just going to be, you know, the meme of the dog with the war scenes going on. And then Kenny Moquoan is going to get 30-25 by Craig McIntosh. That would be hilarious. I hope it doesn't happen, but it would be hilarious. Don't sleep on it happening. I swear to God, that is what Bellator does best.

They, like, feed these guys wins, and sometimes they can't even finish it. And they just find ways to fumble the bag. One championship, our boy, Scott McCrete, hit us up on Twitter. He wanted us to touch on the main event in the one championship. Funny enough, as he was saying, that the lines dropped. And I did play Fabricio, DeAndrege against John Lineker. I took him at minus 170. That line has moved.

I don't know when it's going to be available at most folks. I played it about online. I mean, if you just go back and watch the first three rounds before the nutshot, I mean, Deandraj was kind of piecing him up. Like, he was doing what he wanted to, and it's unfortunate that it ended that way. And I just felt like had it gone the full 25, if he didn't finish him, He was going to win via decision by a pretty sound margin there. It's only been five months.

I don't see why we're not just going to see the same thing again. Obviously, Linneker, hands of stone. Like, he's liable for a knockout at any moment. He's alive for one. But, yeah, at those odds, I jumped on FDA and I feel pretty comfortable with it. Bangor, bangor of a fight. I know that much. It's going to be violent.

It's going to be fun. So, yeah, shout out to one championship. Free viewing. if you got Prime Video. I like minus 170. I think the number's looking like it's much higher now, and I probably wouldn't play it at that just because I have a- minus to 85.

Shout out to 170. Yeah, I have a healthy respect for John Lineker, so I can't be laying that juice against him, but minus 170 is good bet. But yeah, I mean, FDA was taken to school. So, I mean, we've seen Leniker do a lot of cool shit, though. Yes, that's- That's the worry is that he just flatlines it.

Might just rip some body shots. FDA hunches over. Body, body head. We're done here. Could be. Could be the case. Hopefully not. Hopefully we get FDA to get his revenge.

KSW 79, the return of Todd Duffy to the cage taking on Phil DeFrey, the rematch. So only really looked into the main event. I haven't played it yet, but it just feels like a nice parlay. piece either the fight doesn't go to a decision the under three and a half filled the free inside the distance something of that sort uh feels very very solid to happen i mean duffy has fought one time one time in the last eight years and it lasted for a minute and it ended in an accidental eye poke uh in that time the freeze has gone 12 and one and is now the ksw heavyweight champion like i feel like feel like s w just signed him threw him a paycheck and was

just like, yep, there's a little flare here. Like, get a rematch and get in there. And, I mean... Avenge that loss for the heavyweight champ. Yeah, I mean, that's... It just feels like that's essentially what they want to do. I haven't played it yet because it's not available to me, but the under one and a half feels like it's...

If it comes out of, like, minus 170, that feels like something I'm going to want to do. Todd Duffy, 12 fights, 12 finishes. I think all but one came in the first round. comes in to get or get got. That is a certified fact, and I feel like he's probably going to get God out here, and Phil de Freed will be,

and still in KSW. Looking into another one, you know, maybe get around to play in a Gustafsson or something, you know, you never know. Diving deep into KSW 79, by the pay-per-view people.

That's what I do. And then last, but not least, boxing. Jake Paul, the problem child, taking on, the predict.

individual son, Tommy Fury. It couldn't be more excited. I mean, you hear the excitement, right? I'm pretty excited for it, man. I'm pretty excited. Every time Jake Paul gets into the ring, there's a chance that this whole story ends. But is there? I thought there was a chance with Anderson Silva.

I do not really think that there's much of a chance in this one. The man knows how to pick the opponents. He's done a very, very good job of crafting his career. I think Tommy Fury is an excellent, excellent opponent for him at this stage of his career. Yeah, I mean, you want to be totally honest? I haven't done it yet, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to bet Jake Paul. Oh, yeah, for sure. Jake Paul was minus 180-ish right now.

I'm seeing minus 165. Yeah, I'm considering placing a large bet on Jake Paul, not even just betting Jake Paul, but betting multiple units on Jake Paul because Tommy Fury is not very good at boxing. It just like it feels like Jake Paul, like he wanted this matchup so bad. Yeah, he could have left this matchup forever. Humbled it.

Yeah, he did not. There's no had to take this. Anyone would have blamed him or cared. The narrative would entirely have been like, well, Tommy fumbles, there you go. Jake has been seeking this out. Tommy Fury is not very good. I,

insofar as I am interested actually in, Jake Paul's development as a boxer, which I have some interest in it, certainly. He'll never be a world-class boxer. It's just not there, but he's not bad. Of course not. The thing that I think is actively missing from what we've seen from him is fighting somebody like Tommy Fury. And that's just someone who can match him physically because he is very, he's young and

athletic and explosive. And he's mostly fought guys who at one point in time were athletic, but are now old. And Tommy Fury doesn't have the technical acumen of Anderson Silva by any regard. But Anderson Silva for years has largely not done anything and then done like one or two things every three minutes and used craft and cageness to win. And Jake Paul simply outworked him and that's kind of how that fight went. He just did a bunch of stuff and Andrews and Silver largely didn't do. Tommy Fury can do some more things. He's a big dude, but he doesn't have the craft.

Honestly, like, this will be maybe one of the most pronounced times where Jake Paul is actually the better boxer in a fight because he wasn't the better boxer against Anderson Silva. He arguably wasn't even the better boxer against Tyron Woodley. I mean, he certainly was against Ben Ascran,

but yeah, I think this is a very good fight for Jake Paul. I'm for sure playing him and I play him quite substantially. Yeah, I mean, I'm with you. It's just like kind of like play till the wheels fall off, right? Yeah. It just sort of feels like he's just going to he's going to keep this up and

it just seems telling to me how bad he wanted this because it checks the boxes. He beats a guy with the last name Fury. He beats an actual considered quote unquote boxer. Like it starts checking some boxes now. He's going to get ranked? I was going to say he could

potentially get ranked by the WBC after this. Then the argument really starts for him and it's like stop calling me a YouTuber. I'm a WBC ranked the boxer. Yeah, it just feels like Jake Paul knows what he's doing. And I have doubted him multiple times before. Feels like it's just time for me to stop doing that.

Farm agree. Now, if I couldn't find, I looked for this, I couldn't find it out there anyway, if there was an option to bet Tommy Fury pulls out, would you bet it? Because I would for sure bet it. No, he's already there. So I'm going to trust that it's going to happen. I feel like it's a 50-50 shot. He actually makes the walk.

Tommy Fumbles really likes to fumble the bag, man. I was considering playing, like there was other two that I looked at, but they're kind of opposite is fight goes to a decision is like minus 120. Tommy Fury, like, is not really a finisher. And like Jake Paul kind of is, but I don't know. And then there's another one minus 190 for either fighter to get knocked down. But that I just also don't know. kind of just like, yeah.

I think I'm, I think I'm just going to take Jake Paul and right off into the sunset and hopefully it cashes. Yeah, I'm just going to take Jake Paul. I don't have any concept on whether how this will look. Because I also don't know what Tommy Fury is if he's going to try and get in there and get rugged with Jake Paul or if he's going to try and out boxing. Just jab him. Just jab him to death.

Yeah, just by being big and having a semi-functional jab. And then that, also the way Jake Paul throws punches, like he's open to get knocked down if he could ever fight someone who will do it. And I don't know if Tommy Fury is that dude for sure. But I just have no ideas on exactly what it looks like. This just feels very much like a Jake Paul fight for me. Yeah.

And I think that's it. I think we've done it. That's it. Clean hour 10. A big week. We had a lot of events to cover. UFC Bellator 1, KSW, and boxing five events. I think I ended up with

like, I don't know, eight or nine singles and three parles. I'm gonna end up with a violence parley. I've got eight in a parlay, which I didn't think I'd have this many. The violence parley I'm looking at is like the DeFries fighting KSW, Krylov Span, P Gonzalez,

if you go over to Bellator, there's a couple that are pretty tasty to not go to a disqualmie. decision that that Kenny Moquoana fight feels like that's probably not going to go. The Andy Manzalo Nobert Novinier, that feels like one that's not going to go. I'm going to cook something up once all the lines are available with me, so I'm not done yet making plays. But that's all we've got for now. It is only Wednesday morning.

Thanks for listening. Hope we covered everything we could. Hopefully we start bouncing back. Hopefully March is the biggest month of them all, and it starts next week. week UFC 285, the return of John Jones. Let's go. At the heavyweight division taking on Cyril Gone, we will have the John Jones stand, the ring leader for John Jones Army on the show.

Eric Jackman to take on me, who's just a humble Cyril Gan supporter, just love the guy. Don't know how you can't. Like, I just don't know how you can't love the guy. And Jed will be arguing Cyril Gond's case to win to fight. That's next week, though. See you then. I'm out. Love you guys.