MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Joaquin Buckley Beat Colby Covington and Become A Legit Title Contender at UFC Tampa?

Episode Date: December 11, 2024

The final UFC event of 2024 is upon us. This Saturday, UFC Tampa takes place at Amelie Arena in Tampa, FL, headlined by a welterweight contest between Colby Covington and Joaquin Buckley. It's the final event of the year and No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. MMA Fighting's Jed Meshew takes a deep dive into UFC Tampa and his favorite bets on this final card. Topics discussed include whether Covington still has the juice to compete against a top talent like Buckley, if Cub Swanson is too old to stick around against Billy Quarantillo, the sneaky great lightweight banger between Joel Alvarez and Drakkar Klose, the next level up in THE CLIMB, and much more. Tune in for episode 111 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We back for another edition of No Betts Bard. The final edition of No Betts Bard. I guess actually maybe not. The final edition of No Betz Bard in 2024 that is discussing upcoming fights. That is right. This weekend, UFC Tampa goes down Amelie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

and it is the final U.S.E. event of the year and functionally the final fight card of the year. I know that there are, you know, plenty of regional opportunities and perhaps even a, you know, a big New Year's event happening. But the final event that, you know, mainstream American media covers and certainly this show covers. So let's do a little State of the Union. And just so we are clear, when I say we are back, I mean me, Ambit. back the royal we there no guest today because let's be very honest ufc tampa does not require too much to talk about though i do think it is a good fight card uh and our own wonderful mike heck will be in attendance so make sure you keep up with that on mbmafite.com but before we get to all

that and where we're going for the remainder of the year you know we got to go we got to go back turn the clock back just a couple of days this past saturday ufc 310 the final paper view of the year. And wouldn't you know it, the more things change, the more they stay the same, because Alejandre Pantosia remains your UFC flyweight champion, picks up a technical submission, put Kaya Sakura to sleep in the second round with a rear naked choke in what is frankly the best performance of Pantosia's entire career. And the co-main event, it was a little different this time.

Shavkat Rachmanov gets the win, but goes to the judge. his cards for the first time in his entire career, 4847s across the board over Ian Machado Gary. Somebody's oh had to go and it was the future, Ian Machado Gary, who ended up losing that. I won't pretend that that was the most fun fight in the world, but it was a high level competition and one that I think there were a ton of storylines about where we go from here with Shafka, not where we go. We know where we go. We go to Bala Muhammad, but maybe there are people now who think Belaw Muhammad, the Walterway champion, has a better shot against Shavkat.

I don't know. I probably think he is more likely to win than I previously did, though I still don't think he is very likely to win, but that will come later. Those two are set to fight at some point in 2025 now. And the rest of the card, look, on paper, it was a great card.

In actuality, it didn't quite deliver. Some weird fights, some low moments. We knew could be low. Shockingly, the Moffar I've loved Al Jemaine Sterling fight was incredibly fun. And that was probably sort of the highlight of the prelims unless you want to go with one of the specific finishes. But even a lot of those finishes were kind of just sad. Old people getting put out to pasture in a lot of ways. But the most important thing about 310 is we are winners, ladies and gentlemen.

We leave the event up. Not a lot, mind you. We're up half a unit, just slightly over half a unit on the event. We took a lot of shots on dogs. If the Alexander Volkov bet had paid out, as I believe Volkov won, I am not calling it a robbery, but hit that at a little plus 280, we'd be really feeling great about ourselves. But it did not. And so instead, we take a profit where we can get a profit. And most importantly, the most important thing, as always, ladies and gentlemen, the climb continues.

Shavkat Rakmanov was step five of the climb to 30 in a row. nailed it and so our little climb bankroll which started at $100 it's up to $300 and we're putting it all on one fighter this weekend stay tuned because we'll get to who is going to be our representative for the

climb for the final UOC card of the year not too far from now but all that said we are looking at right now I think we're going to end 2024 up is basically what that meant. Don't have a lot of action

for Tampa, but we are just under seven units up on the year. Not an amazing amount, but a win is a win. We take dubs where we get them. And with not that many bets, in fact, I have five bets on paper this week. Maybe I could add another couple, but it's unlikely. Just not the card that appeals to me betting wise, frankly. I will finish 2024 profitable. You're not going to, you know, retire all what we've done here. But if you've tailed along the entire way, You aren't doing too too shabby, and I take a lot of pride in that. Mainly, I'm just very happy that I myself am not being forced to eat ramen, as I have been previous years on this very show when I put all my money on Valencia Shepchenko, and she failed me. But that's a story for a different time, because now we've knocked out a little preamble, and we can dive right into UFC Tampa this Saturday, Amelie Arena, and your main event, it's not a bad one.

I don't know if it's a good one. It's certainly a weird one, one that I don't know that anybody saw coming, expected coming. Colby Covington makes his return after a year out of the cage to take on Joaquin Buckley in a five-round welterweight contest. Of course, this fight was not supposed to be the fight we got. Buckley was originally supposed to fight Ian Machado Gary because Shavkat was supposed to challenge Belaw Muhammad at UC 310. Belal Muhammad suffered that toe injury was forced out. Shavcott stayed on the card.

Machado Gary accepted. the change moved up one week to fight Shavka, and then they had to find a replacement for Buckley. And out of nowhere from left field, the top rope comes Colby Covington, Mr. America, himself to save the day and make the welterweight division great again, I suppose. And interestingly enough, I guess, I mean, Colby's in such a weird spot of his career, right? Like, he hasn't been competing. He's not been near.

very active the last few years, basically fighting once a year, if that even with a break, took that big long layoff and then kind of came out of nowhere to weigh in as a backup fighter, gets him a title fight. You know, he's lost all the title fights he's had functionally. Two and three over his past five,

36. Seems like he is probably not at his best anymore, but still draws interest, still draws name. And despite all of that, sizable underdog, Not enormous, but plus 240. Come back on walking Buckley.

If you shop around, you can get it as low as minus 275 in some places. And on the other side of things, if you're looking at Covington's sort of weird run, Buckley has had the exact sort of run you want from a guy at this stage of his career. Drops back down to Welterweight, and he has been lights out. 5 and 0. He's 3 and 0 this year. He has a great case to be, he will not be the first team all violence, well to wait this year because there's a young man by the name of Carlos

protest who has that locked up. But Buckley is already in position probably to make a second or third team all-violence team. Keep it locked in. That's coming up later this month on MEPighting.com. But 3 and 0 possibility to go to 4 and 0, you know, knocked out Stephen Wonderboy Thompson at UFC 307 makes this relatively quick turnaround headlining event. Yes, Buckley has had his issues outside of the cage, his mic work, his callouts, beefing with Cub Swanson very weirdly. Now they're on the same call. It's odd, but seems to kind of whatever that weird moment was, he sort of moved past.

He is in a good spot now. And he's getting a big opportunity against Covington. Like I said, a guy who he brings eyeballs. He is a former interim champion, a three-time, undisputed title challenger. This will be the biggest win of his career. I'm honestly not sure if it's a better win. than, you know, some of his other ones, particularly given the age Covington's at, but it will certainly be the biggest win.

This, a win here probably puts Buckley like one off a title fight. Maybe gets him into the Camaro Usman lottery, or maybe he can just say, hey, let's run it back with Ian Machado, Gary. We were supposed to do it. Let's do it now. We will see, because Gary's super interested in fighting Covington, obviously, but I don't think he's going to get Covington because I think Covington is going to lose this fight. and it's really simple why

Buckley is much younger much more active than Covington is solid enough wrestler not an amazing one a better offensive wrestle than defensive wrestler frankly but good enough and the much

much much more dangerous striker we've seen the highlights from Buckley the man possesses unreal power when he is deploying it does not to say Covington doesn't have any chances he's a better offensive or he is a better offensive wrestler than Buckley is and certainly I think we'll be able to get some takedowns but

Covington has never been a great control grappler anyway. He is a pressure cardio machine where he's going to come forward, he's going to shoot takedowns, take you down, you stand back up, I'll take you back down, I'll wear on you and tire you out that way. If this does go late into the championship rounds, I could see, you know, Covington's starting to have some success there because he is very, very difficult to hurt or tire out or kind of dissuade from attacking you. But all things considered, you just got to go with the dude who has all the marks are in his favor in just about every statistical, athletic, physical category at this stage of their careers.

So I think you're getting a decent price on Buckley. And as will be the case on a lot of fighters, the odds are big here. And so I have Buckley in a parley. I think there are lots of Parley fodder. I only made one this week, perhaps a little bit of, you. you know, cautiousness, knowing that I'm up on the year,

but not up by a lot. So I don't want to burn too much. I have one three-leg parley. Buckley is the final leg of that. So come the main event, I will still be deeply invested in what is going on this evening. Or not this evening, I guess,

Saturday evening. Let's keep it rolling to the co-made event, which I sort of touched on, or at least alluded to earlier. Cubs Swanson showing up yet again. He's taking on Billy Quarantillo. and, you know, Cubs had an interesting year. He lost a split decision, Andre Feeley, at UFC 303, which a lot of people scored for him.

He had this weird, curious beef with Joaquin Buckley that kind of sprouted out of nowhere and seemed to dissipate just as quickly. Billy Q on the other end, you know, getting older, not as old as Cub. Cub is 41. Billy Q was just 36. But, you know, at Featherweight, that's on the long end of things, really. he's two and three over his last five and got submitted by Yusuf Salal back in March. This is a home game for Billy, though.

This is he trains and fights out of Tampa, obviously where this event is happening. I am curious to see how this fight ends up playing out because Billy Quintillo is a super fun fighter. He is an action fighter. Man is a bit reckless. Reckless is a generous term at times for how he likes to get down. He is going to come forward. He is going to force the issue. and sometimes that can hurt him.

Cub Swanson is a fighter who absolutely can take advantage of opportunities, even at his advanced age, I think still has enough tread on the tires to present some problems. But Cub is just not in his prime. If Cub were in his prime, I think this would be a great matchup for Cub to get a dub. Because he is not, even though I still think he can compete, does not need to retire. This is not a Chris Wyden, Anthony Smith, Clay Guida situation for Cub Swanson, at least not yet. I do think you're getting a fair price at Billy Quintillo in general, but you'll know how I like to do. I like to go to chat GPT and when I'm not sure, and mainly when they're just a close fight and I feel like having a bit of fun,

I decided to go break out the wonderful old chat GPT machine. And in this instance, let me tell you, chat GPT let us down last week. very unfortunate dropped us drop chat GPT to 21 and 12 overall still highly successful rate but it picked Nate Landware

and I got to tell you Nate Landware was nowhere close to beating DeUho Troy so we had to give ChatGPT an opportunity to safe face to get one get back in the wing column say hey I misread that one but the machines are here

the future is now and I've got this and so I put this into ChatGPT and here is what we get back. Billy Quarantillo is going to win a unanimous decision, 29, 28s across the board. Quarantillo's pressure, pace, and hometown support proves to be the difference. Swanson ever the warrior left, leaves the cage with his head held high, earning the respect of the Tampa crowd. The fight was a classic, cementing Quintilla's reputation as an action fighter and adding another memorable chapter to Cubs Swanson's storied career.

Chat GPT says Billy Q getting that dub, and so we have bet Billy Q at minus 155. So hopefully we get back on the winning track. Again, still very positive with chat GPT bets, but we got a rebound. You don't want to, you know, two is a streak. We don't want to be on a losing streak with the GPT. Let's keep it rolling to a flyweight contest. Manel Cop taking on Bruno Silva, copying minus 350 betting favorite to come back on Silva plus 300.

Cop is a been on a pretty decent run, was on the cusp of a title shot, and then 304 happened. He has a fight against Mahama Makayev that is pretty obviously a de facto. They didn't come right out and say it, but pretty much it was supposed to be a title eliminator. If cop wins, you get to sell the Pantosia cop, fight,

the beef, Brazil versus Portugal. You know, big, big obvious ideas. is it play there. Makayev wins. Makaiv's young, exciting. And instead, they have such a weird fight week. They almost get into a fight like three different times. Makayev is just acting like a lunatic at points.

And then they get in there and have one of the worst fights of the year, just a putrid effort from both dudes. Mikhail, his contract is up. So the UFC just opts not to re-sign him. They're just like, no. You're one of the five best fly weeks in the world, but no. Everything about you this week has been terrible. please leave.

Cop, still under contract, so it doesn't quite get the same treatment. We'll see when his contract's up if he does. But I think he's going to get back in their good graces here because Bruno Silva is on a great run right now. Four-fight win streak, you know, finally got a ranking back in July. Yeah, July when he fought Cody Durden finished him. This four-fight win streak is also a bonus streak, four performance bonuses in a row. electric and exciting.

And if he can take cop down, then sure. Like, he can win this fight absolutely. I don't think he's going to. Cop still does have weaknesses, certainly, but Mikhailov struggled to take him down. I think Mikhail is a better, wrestler, a much better control grappler. And even when Mikhail did get cop down,

he struggled to keep him down for extended periods. And so I think that this should largely play out as a fight the cop is suited for. That's why he's such a big favorite. So cop is actually the second leg of the parle of, I don't have a fun or clever name this week. It's just three dudes who are pretty confident and going to win. And cop is the middle of this cop sandwich, I guess, of parley's. And hopefully we will cash that ticket.

Moving on to a light heavyweight contest, Vitor Petrino taking on Dustin Jacoby. Petrino, your betting favorite, minus 300. The comeback on Jacoby plus 260. Look, Petrino's dope. man, like he was 4-0 in the UFC, seem like, okay, maybe this is a light heavy way we can get behind. Maybe this is some new blood in this division

that desperately needs it. And then he just has Anthony Smith jump a gilly on him and gets him. And massive upset. I think Petrino was like a minus 600 betting favorite. Anthony Smith is beyond wash, as we saw last weekend. And Petrino just stuffed his head right into the gilly.

But that's how gillies go, baby. That's what they'll get you. That's why Dustin Porrier says, don't be silly, jump to gilly. They can sneak up on you out of nowhere, and I don't think Dustin Jacoby is going to be doing that. You know, former glory kickboxer, but Jacoby is in a really rough run right now, one in four in his last five. Got knocked out by Dominic Reyes in June. Dominic Reyes, who, like I said at the U.C. 310 discussions, I think Reyes still had some tread on the tires, but at the time, Reyes was in dire straits of his career, and certainly isn't the fighter he used to be,

and yet he sort of walked through Jacoby. Jacoby's only win during this time has been over Kennedy and Zuchuku, who, you know, I like Kenny Nunchucks. You all know I like Kenny Nunchucks, but not a reliable fighter. So Jacobi getting that win. It speaks more about Kenny than it does to Jacoby, I think, and so feel okay about Vitor Petrino getting things done. Jacoby is a fine wrestler, but not a great one.

I think Petrino can score takedowns, do what he needs to do, and Jacoby is not likely to pop a gilly on him and pull up set city out of nowhere. And so Petrino is actually the third leg of the parley. It is Buckley-Cop Petrino. The three of them together, where I got them at the odds are, pays out at plus 134. So a little plus money parlay, three legs, and I feel fairly decent about it. But, I mean, that's it. There is no butts, actually.

I don't know where I was going with that. But I know where we are going, because where we are going, next is a bantamoy contest adrian yanez taking on daniel marcos in a sneaky awesome fight uh yanniaz a plus 160 underdog to come back on marcos minus 180 marcos dude's undefeated like 18 and o or something dumb 17 no some big number these and oh uh three and o with one no contest in the un vc in june he beat john costaneda takes a u d yanez was that dude like a what a two years ago year and a half a year and a half ago. It's like, oh, this guy is, like, he's probably not going to win the belt, but he was caller's protest. He's dark horse, super fun, super talented, super good guy who's going to make some

noise. And then he runs into Rob Fon, who dummies him, and then Jonathan Martinez beats him up too. And now we're left kind of wondering, okay, hype train a little too real, it's just setbacks to very good fighters and very specific circumstances. What are we doing here? And I think that he is still for real. That's where I'm coming. Maybe this is me being committed to my priors. I was very big on Yan-Jez. Maybe I'm just like, I can't let it go. Very possible. But Daniel Marcos, gaudy record and not a bad fighter, by no means. I'm not saying that. I don't know if he's a good fighter. I know that he's not a great fighter. I don't know if he's even a good fighter. And while Yanez is certainly flawed, I do think he's the more talented of the two.

This is going to be a striking matchup. And I just think Adrian is going to come in here. and put that boxing on display, and Marcos is a little more defensively savvy, absolutely, but doesn't bring the same offensive tools to bear. I think that will ultimately be the factor, and so got an underdog bet on Adrian Yanias at a plus 160. And moving on to the final main card fight, it is a fight I'm very excited about because it is a fighter I'm very excited about. Navajo Sterling, taking on George Toko Sterling.

Big favorite, minus 500 in some books, is about as low as. I could find. Tokos ranges, obviously, at a favorite this large couple of books having it, like, plus six. You can even, I've even seen a plus five or two out there. So, you know, you can find Tokos at a pretty, pretty high number. And by plus six, I'm at plus four, sorry. You can find Tokos out there at a fairly large number to make some things happen. So why am I so excited about this fight?

I'm excited about this fight because of Navajo Sterling. Sterling is coming in. He's making his UFC debut. He was on the Contender Series 2024. Undefeated guy, only like 5-0, but a prospect out of city kickboxing. As you all know, by now, I do breakdowns on the contender series prospects for Mavidfin.com. And Sterling this year was one of my favorite prospects. I broke them out in two tiers.

He was a structured it based on the NFL draft. And I have Navajo Sterling as a top tier round one prospect, a guy that you would draft early and feel very comfortable about. He's a little older than maybe I would normally want for a prospect like this. I believe he's 27 or so. If he was younger, he would have been a blue chipper. It's a little older, but light heavyweight is a weight class where you can be a little older.

And frankly, he's got a lot of polish to him. He is a city kickboxing guy. He looks a lot like that. My comp for him, he fights like a light heavyweight, Rory McDonald. Very patient, very poised, very good at sort of nullifying, opposing offense. making it hard for them to get going and then finding his spots. Tokos is almost the definition of a journeyman. No disrespect to meant, but he's been all over.

Bellator Shuto, rode to UFC, made his UFC debut and got tapped. He is enhancement talent. He is here to get Navajo Sterling some reps. How do you do? Here's your introduction to the UFC. City kickboxing, you know, another guy like all the rest of them, frankly, coming in. they'll get behind him, they'll give him a push, and I think he's maybe not quite ready for a big push, but he's certainly ready for George Tokos. And so, Navo Sterling, minus 500, exactly the number

I'm looking for a bet for the climb. He is the sixth step of the climb version 3.0, and good gracious willing, we will continue moving on up that ladder. Moving on to the prelim cards now, our prelim card now, Michael Johnson taking on Atman Azitar in a lightweight, contest Johnson a minus 180 favorite Azitar plus 165 the comeback I am just going to go ahead and apologize to all of you at this

point in time because I have extremely little action from this point forward and by little I mean have one bet left on the card so and this ain't it Michael Johnson I don't feel great about him being a favorite if I add more bets one of the bets will be a

underdog play on Atman Azitar Johnson, I mean, he is, he's old, dude. Like, and granted, he has looked, like, I've made some money on Johnson the last couple of fights. The UD. over Darius Flowers, I backed him. Like, he's still showing some game to him, and God knows he's fought a rough, rough, rough cycle of fighters. That's why his resume is what it is. But man is certainly getting up there in years. It absolutely does not have his fastball anymore even if he's good.

And, well, I don't think too much of his eye. honestly, in his defense, his two losses in a row in the UFC have come against good competition, and Johnson is bad as a favorite. Mathematically, it is the right thing to fade him. He is six in ten when he is a betting favorite. So you are getting great value every time. There's a minus next to Michael Johnson's name, and you're getting that value with Michael Johnson, you know, pushing 40 at this point in time.

So because I don't feel strongly about a Zytar, I don't have a bet yet. This is one that it was circled that I just, I even, I typed it in. I just didn't punch enter. I may come back and ultimately make that decision, but I have yet to do it. Let me know. Bully me into it. Like this is where I need somebody else in my comments, in my mentions. This is where I need a co-host this week to just be like, hey, do it, you pansy.

come on believe in a xitar let's let's get her done but uh i don't know i guess we'll i guess we'll see if i sack up and do it i'm not doing it at the moment in time what i am doing i'm betting on joel alvarez uh in this next fight because joel alvarez is my boy he is taking on draccar close in a lightweight contest alvarez minus 400 come back on close plus 3 30 and very simply put i love joel avres joel avres is like the exact dude I go to when I think or when I make the argument the lightweight's the best division in the sport because Joel Alvarez is about 10 fights away from a lightweight title shot and on any given night you could put him in the cage with any given lightweight and he could he could beat him like he is a super talented dude but because of because he has flaws and because lightweight is such

a shark tank a woodchip or a meat grinder it's so hard to make headway up instead he just you know wins a bunch of fights, then loses to Armand Sarukin, and now he just falls all the way back down the line. He's a great fighter. Draccar close, honestly, a lot of that same energy to him. Super talented, super good fighter, been around forever, can't quite get the marquee wins to get a number next to his name and start a real title run.

But you know, you see his name on the opposite side of the call sheet to you. You're in for a tough day. This fight is going to be a banger. I love this fight, but Joel Lover has been my boy for a lot of time. You always got to back your boy. Always got to back your boy, guys. And so I thought about just using him as a parlay piece and just making a bigger parlay or splitting up all my parley pieces into legs, ultimately decided, let's have a little more fun.

Because in Joel Alvarez's entire career, he's gone to decision one time. He lost that decision. All of his wins come by stoppage. Drucker close. He's only been stopped. I think once before them, not looking at that in front of me anymore. A durable dude, but Joel Alvarez, he got that nasty offense. I'm going to bet on him to keep getting it done

because you're getting a much better price if you do. Alvarez inside the distance minus 135. That is my lone prop bet of the evening. And like I said, I have no other bets on the rest of the card. I will briefly go through because there's one more fight that I am tempted by. I haven't decided yet if I'll pull it, but I'm tempted by it. But we will roll on to a featherweight contest, Sean Woodson versus Fernando Padilla, Woodson, minus 150 favorite,

the comeback on Padilla plus 1.30. What's on a great run right now. He's 4-0 in a draw in his last five. Took a U.D. over Alex Saracin-May. Seems to be putting all the tools together. Very, very dangerous guy right now. Padilla, you know, lost to Kyle Nelson, came back with a win over Luis Bahuelo in March.

Big dude, I think he's going to be there to match the sheer, not physicalities, maybe not the right, just the size of Woodson in the cage. These are two enormous feather weights. But Woodson is beating better opposition. I feel fairly confident Woodson's going to win. The only caveat here, we talked about last week at 310, Padilla's birthday is on Sunday. That didn't work out for Clay Guido over the weekend.

He did not cash the birthday. Michael Keesa, on his birthday, did cash the birthday bet. I don't know if we're feeling that for Padilla. I think a bet on Woodson here. was entirely reasonable. I did not take it because I was being very, very conservative this week. And I did not crunch like a ton of tape to feel more confident. If I have time, perhaps I would. But I think if you want about what's in here, I won't judge you for that. I think that he's going to get his hand raise. Moving on, featherweight contest. Again, Miles Johns taking on Felipe

Lima. John's pretty decent little run, you know, one three or three or three of his past four or something like that, took up a UD over Douglas Silver Day and Drogh in June. Lima made his UFC debut that same month and submitted Muhammad Nymov. And the question is, you know, how good is he? Lima, younger dude coming in with some hype, but, you know, he is a prospect. And Miles Johns is exactly the kind of dude you make these fights with. He is better than he gets credit for.

he is a tough out without being exceptional young developing prospects can get in work and we can see where they are at there he is a great litmus test and i truly don't know what to make alim i i haven't seen a ton of his regional stuff his ufc debut was obviously impressive but i'm willing to give us a little bit more time here particularly against an opponent who is crafty like miles john so i'm sticking i'm staying away another fight i'm staying away though this was less by choice and more by I don't know what the hell to do here. Miranda Maverick versus Jamie Lynn Horth. Maverick, a minus 480 favorite, a big favorite comeback on Horth plus 390.

Look, Maverick's on a run. She won four over her past five. She took a UD over Deani Barbosa back in July. And, you know, she's still young, still getting better, seems to really be making a case that, hey, I'm going to hang around the top 15-ish of this flyweight division for years to come. I don't think she's ever going to make a title run, but I do think she's just going to kind of be in that back end mix for a while. And I don't really think the same of Horth, you know,

three UFC fights has really failed to dazzle in any of them. I think Maverick's going to get this win. I would never play this at this price. Though Maverick is not a lock by any stretch. It's a big number. The thing I do like in this fight, though, is the overs. over one and a half minus 750 over two and a half minus 500. I think the over one and a half is a terrific parlay piece,

but I didn't have anything to parlay it with because they didn't want to pair it with the dudes. The price was already good. I don't have a lot of other over-unders that I feel confident about. In other circumstances, I would just leave this as an open parlay piece to pair up with stuff in the future. But given the, frankly, one-month hiatus we're about to go on, I just opted to say, eh, it's fine. Fine. We don't need this right now. We can come back and find new bets in the new year.

So no action for me on this. But if you have some other parlay legs you're looking at, I think either of the overhears are good. Horth has gone to decision in all of our UFC fights, Maverick, and 7 over 10. This is just going to go long. I'm pretty confident in. And this is the last fight coming up that I am tempted by, though I've yet to make a bet and ultimately choose not to. It is the Bantamway contest between Davy Grant and Ramon to, as Grant plus 105, tomorrow's minus 115. Grant's in a bit of a tough run. He's lost two of his past five.

He's two and three of his past five, I guess. Lost to Daniel Marcos in July of last year. So we're talking about 18 months, 19 months. I'm not a math guy. Don't math me on this one since he has competed and it was a loss to Daniel Marcos split decision. But, you know, Davey Grant is, he is going to, David Guy's going to be 39 in two weeks.

His birthday is mid-December. He will turn 39. 39 at Bantamweight is a tough age to trust, quite frankly. 39 at Bantamweight coming off an extended layoff like this is a very tough age to trust. I don't, I am by no means sold in Tavar's. Tavar's was in season 2023 of Contender Series. It took him a couple of times to get a contract and gets one. I have enlisted as just a replacement level fight.

just nothing stands out about him. Nothing has changed in my estimation there. David Grant is certainly more talented, better fighter, but what version of David Grant are we getting with this layoff, this age? I have stayed away for now. I think an underdog bet, though, is enticing. If the odds move a little higher, maybe I'll be forced to just buy the numbers, but I'm out of it on this one.

And our final fight to talk about for 2024, the opening fight of the evening, Josefine Knudsen taking on Pierre Rodriguez in a women's strawweight contest Knutzen undefeated 8-0-2-0 in the UFC picked up a big win in June I do not remember who she beat I'm sorry you know former Muay world champion or whatever like she's we know her a bit because she is as there aren't that many prospects at straw weight but Knutzen appears to be one of our better bets for it at least. And Rodriguez, meanwhile, you know, her last fight, she got decued for intentionally headbutting

Ariana Carnalosi. Like that, that was in May that this happened. It was been a weird year that somebody tried to go UFC 4 in there. But that kind of speaks to what she is a strange fighter, hard one to get a beat on. If you're going to throw headbutts, you're a weirdo. And so, I don't know. I think that I think Knutson is going to win this fight. But she's not like the world's best wrestler.

If Rodriguez just shoots a couple takedowns and cheats, we've seen that she will cheat if she cheats a little more subtly instead of overtly doing it and getting DQed, maybe she can win. Like, just given the price where these two ladies are at, I don't want to be involved in this fight. So that's why I have no bet on the opening Friday of the evening, no bet to tell you about for the final fight we are discussing in 2024.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is a wrap on No Betts Barred. Not for this year, but for fights this year. We will come back. Not next week. Next week, we will be on hiatus. Let me actually pull up the calendar. Next week we go on hiatus because I'm going on vacation is the actual answer.

The week after that would be Christmas, December 25th. We won't be dropping a No Betz Bard on Christmas. We'll drop a Christmas, a holiday themed, I suppose, No Bet's Bard. that week, I think, where we will discuss, you know, we'll get out some awards. What's the best stuff of the year? Look back at the futures bets. We made some futures bets at the start of the year. So update you on how that went.

I do not know because I haven't kind of looked at it. I mean, I know I didn't do great because my bank account isn't doing so much better. But I don't know if I lost a bunch of money because the money's been gone. So I just don't know. We'll find out when we come to that. But until then, thank you all for. for sticking with me. Thank you for tuning in. I love you so very, very much. I mean that genuinely. We can come off, flip it and glib at times, but I do love all of you for supporting me and

supporting us. And I hope you enjoy the hell out of UFC Tampa. We'll have you covered at at mapine.com. Mike Heck on location, on the scene for all of it. And see you in two weeks for the actual final Novets Bar in 2024 and a little bit of a fun time. Good luck. Love you. You know.