MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Joe Pyfer Make The Leap To Contention At UFC Vegas 86?

Episode Date: February 7, 2024

After a lackluster UFC Vegas 85 card, MMA's leading promotion returns with yet another middleweight main event in the world's most famous Apex, this time between Jack Hermansson and Joe Pyfer. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a brief recap of last weekend's card and a status check on Flyweight Understan, before diving into yet another Apex card. After all, if the UFC can't deliver the most fun fights in the world every weekend, we can certainly make them more entertaining by recklessly putting money on them. Can Joe Pyfer break into the Top-10 and announce himself as a legitimate middleweight threat? Will Dan Ige ever not be a Top-15 featherweight? Just how cooked is Michael Johnson? And how many middleweight fights is too many for one card? All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 77 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Jack Hermanson taking on B. Joe Pfeiffer. Is that his official nickname B? Question, you know, in the quotations, B, Joe Pfeiffer. It's a way better nickname than Body Bags with a Z. Body bags, yeah, I don't love the Z, but body bags ain't bad.

Body bags would be fine if it was just, because, you know, it's not like there are a ton of those, but with the Z, it's like, what is this? Some early 2000s, Joe Pai. You weren't old enough to do the Z thing, Joe Pfe. For your 20, you're a young man. That's, that's for the older heads. Can't be doing that nonsense here.

I mean, he does collect body bags, though. 12 professional wins, 11 of them coming by way of finish. So he has no bones about getting a finish. Another apex card. The March to 100. The March to 100, this 86, we will be at 90 as we enter UFC 300. Serious question. Do you think they're going to make UFC Apex 100 like a bigger event?

What I actually hate is that they're going to make it the most ho-hum event of all time. But that's fitting. Like, yeah, that is fitting. But for real ones, for the real ones out there, we will recognize what it is. And we'll celebrate it. and proper celebrations will be put in order. This card, you know, it's not exactly the best card on earth, but there's some fights that have potential to be really fun.

There are definitely some fights out there that can get fun. I will say this about this card. It's better than last week's. It's better. I'm going to shoot you straight. Still haven't seen it. Still haven't seen it last week's, Connor. I watched the flyweight fight, which we could be sad about that one.

Listen, we can be sad about that one. but I'm actually going to lean on the side. Flywood unders are so back that we almost got an under in a Charles Johnson fight. Twice. Several times. Yeah, I was going to say there was a couple times where I was like, oh, this might be it. This might be it. That's the only fight I watched the full thing through other obligations last weekend.

I was off. But I've tuned in. I was like, I mean, we got to check. We got to be here for this. Had it going on the phone and was like, oh, my God. Like, oh, Charles Johnson almost gets knocked out immediately. When it looked like it was about to have. in the first round, I was like, I was having visions of grandeur.

Like, I was like really going to a dream place that I never should have gone to, started counting the chickens. I was like, we are so fucking back. It's not even funny how back we are. So back. But then at like, two minutes into the second round, I was like, this is going all 15. This is going all 15. But I mean, even the second we get that, you know, he gets the back.

He's got the choke under the chin and then just gives up all, like just quits on trying to choke him out? At the end, the announcers are just whispering sweet nothing to me. They're like, I think he was out for a nanosecond there. Why do he give up on the choke? He was out. He was out. He was out. I'm like, oh, my gosh. This is a cursed fight for flywood hunters. Charles Johnson is just the number one enemy of Flywood Under Nation, of Flywood Understand, whatever, whatever we're calling the country. The Nation of Flywood Understand. Yeah, I mean, Maxim's not far behind him. He's not. And another performance like this, but oh, it was brutal. However, heavyweight overs are back, baby.

I mean, there's just. I thought of you as that one was in doubt. Never in doubt. I didn't watch a second of it, but the internal slacks, I was so confident just checking the slack and seeing it was like, okay, this over is clearly hitting. I'm actually not going to lie with you right now. I watched the entire card. And I can't even remember what the heavyweight fight was.

What was it? Oh, the heavyweight. fight was homeboy from Contender series, Thomas Peterson and, uh, Oaks. First fight at night. Yeah. We kicked the night off, you know, properly with 25 or 15 minutes of heavyweight action.

Everyone always likes to be like, oh, it's the cards that you least expect to like sneak up on you and be absolute bangers. Uh, this card I was not expecting to be good. This card, uh, was not good. I got to say, I'm pretty happy. I missed it. Hearing all the, all the talk about it. I was like, okay.

Slanderous. If I had to miss one. Slanderous words from Jamal Hill about halfway through the card. He was just like, don't want to jinx there. He said like something like, y'all are sleeping. I think this is the card of the year. I'm just like, what is this guy talking about? I mean, the main event.

There have only been three cards. And they haven't been great, but. Yeah, yeah. I have to imagine. Main event was like, it was interesting. Like the first round was like, whoa, this is crazy. then it was like a big time lull for two and a half rounds. Then you get the head kick and it's like, oh, like Chris Curtis is going crazy.

Is the Leetsay going to just like take the DQ dub here or something? But man, delete said, not a good start for the month of Georgia. That was a rough performance for our guy. Though we did get confirmation, Rocky Pennington, UGA fan. You did the research. I mean, you, so, you know, Georgia, one in one this year. We'll see how that keeps going. How are you doing?

How did you do last weekend? Because I got to tell you, Connor, I've yet to win, but I haven't lost all, like, I've lost less than a unit combined of the three events. I've just like barely lost every week. But it's, it's fucking with my morale, man. Yeah, I lost a unit and a half. It really all just came down to Dobermoikano. The fact that that went the distance, big.

a big flip on the script for the night for me. So that was unfortunate. Didn't expect Moyconor to wrestle so heavily. Thought he would be a little bit more active chasing subs from the ground. So yeah, there's just like not a good night, but not a horrible night. Yeah,

it was a perfect betting night for what the card was. Like it was just like, we got fights. I bet on them. I didn't win money. Pretty lacklustre card. That's been my old 2020. though. And I don't think it's getting better this week.

I don't like it. My whole 2024 has just been like, I got faith. I got fake this week. I will also say last, last bit of thing. I know we hated it. I know we talked through it and it was unfortunate. Chat GPT is 1 and 0 in 2024 with the main event prediction of Nestor NeNeumov by decision. So just going it out there. Great call by the bot. That was a plus 300 on. I want to say Roman, I want to say Roman, when the Leitze was listening and was like, got to cash it for the bot because, uh, might have been. I mean, the toughness he displayed was, uh, was next level. Just to survive the first round and then to survive everything else for the rest of that one. It was, uh, it was not a

close affair. Uh, I, I don't want to say who it was because I can't remember who ever scored at 47 47. Just all time bad scorecard. That was, that was not a competitive fight at all, at all 10-8 first round point deduction in the force should have canceled it out can't give that thing a draw yeah i give that thing a draw i can't agree or disagree still i haven't seen it i will go back and watch that one since there was some shenanigans and i'll probably watch the comane because it's irrelevant but uh maybe i'll watch meatball molly it's just a first round sub so it'll take me too much great performance buyer um so yeah that was that we spent enough time recaving now let's move on to ufc apex 86 back

in the big old warehouse in the desert. And let's start with the main event. Middleweight main event. Can't get better than back-to-back middle-weight main events. But this time, we got our man Joey Piper taken on Jack Hermanson. Right now, Piper is the favorite. And growing minus 250, Hermantson coming back at plus 205. You know I'm riding with my guy, Joey P.

I doubted him one time. I bet against them. Made me feel like an idiot. He came in studio for the MMA hour. I actually mentioned, I was like, yeah, dude, I bet against you. And he was like, yeah, dude, you're an idiot. And I'm just like, yeah, all right. So we're just not going to bet against him any longer until he proves this otherwise.

His commitment to the game, his commitment to continue to level up, his tenacity, his viciousness, the way that he goes about these fights. It's hard to bet against him at this point. And this is a big step up. I mean, Jackermanston is, he's no slouch in there, man. Like, Jackermanston has been in there with some really talented dudes, and he's had some really good moments in the UFC. But I'm just going to trust in Joe Pfe for continuing to level up in his game. I trust that he hits like a truck.

Dude is super powerful. We mentioned it off the top of the show. 12 wins, 11 coming by finish. I think like eight of them are by knockout. And he's had some pretty vicious ones so far in the UFC. And that's not to say Hermanson has a bad. chin or anything. But we have seen, you know, him get knocked out before by power punchers. And I think, I think Piper falls in that range. I mean, Canoneer, Tiago Santos. I mean,

Arm Vittori dropped him. So, like, it can be tested. I think over the course of the five rounds, I think Joe Piper gets it done. I think he's going to get the finish here and get his hand raised and continue to climb of being, being Joe Piper. I mean, I agree with you. I will say, I like this fight a little bit more after watching both of them. I was previous today. I was just like this is kind of dumb. Sort of a squash match.

But I do think Jackramanson might have a little something to at least test Joe Pfeiffer, but this is sort of that perfect matchmaking of. Hey, here's a dude. Step up in competition. Might make you show us some different things, flex, some muscles you haven't had to before. But probably going to get the win. And then this win, obviously going to move you into the top 15, top 10 of the UFC's rankings. And we can go from there.

Great matchmaking. I would like to see some improvements out of Joe Pfeier. I expect you will because, like you said, he's constantly getting better. He's still a little, little stiff at points in time, but the power is undeniable. I mean, this dude is just a physical force in there. The takedowns he was hitting on Adhors Akal Hassan. That was who he fought last. Just, I mean, just throwing this grown man around like a small child,

Punch is like a truck. Jackramansen get a little older, can be hit. I do think that he gets it done, but maybe he has to show us a little something. So I've got Joe Pfeiffer by K.O. plus 130. Okay. Getting around the price on the buy K.O. line here. So I just like that better than taking Joe Piper at minus 250 or whatever he's at right now.

There is a world where I'm going to get real curious. If this fight gets extended, if Jacker Manson is, you know, given Joe Pfe or something to think about, and, you know, say we're 1-1 going into the third round. Say it gets extended to that, that extent because Joe Piper fights do not last long. I mean, if you just go back and look at his best. One decision. I was going to say, I think he's only been to the third round in that fight that he went to a decision in 2018,

which was his second professional fight. I mean, even if you look at his AMI career, four or the five, and in the first round as well. Yeah, if we're going into the third round and, like, it's like, oh, one-one here. It's just like, this could get interesting, you know, like, you've got to be. veteran in there against the guy that we don't know how his cardio is going to go. We don't see him in a third round ever, and we definitely never see him in a fifth round. So it could get interesting, but I'm excited for this one. I'm excited at any time Joe Pfeiffer fights. What did Joe Piper buy, like, round one, K.O. I didn't even look at that. I bet you're not getting a great price on it,

but. Yeah, it's always weird to see these, uh, these like, just like barely in the, in the plus money range. Um, I'm seeing Joe Piper. 25 is. what I'm seeing. I mean, I'd just rather take $130 for the KO clean either way. Yeah. I was going to say, I feel like that's a little zig when you zag moment go, go around two plus 650. Seems like that might be good, but donate that.

Just take the plus money on the K.O. I think if he wins, he's going to knock him out. I obviously got the, I got Joe Piper parlayed last week had him with Natalia Silva. She obviously won, so that moves on to this week. She did the thing. She did the thing, man. She looks cool doing it. She looks cool doing it.

Very good young talent right there. Yeah, looking forward to it. Not much from Rourou on that one. I mean, a lot of stalling. A lot of stalling. So, yeah, I got Joe Pfeiffer. I actually parlayed the fight doesn't go to a decision as well because it's a Joe Pfeiffer fight. Because it's Joe Pfeiffer fight.

I think he's going to get the win and I think he's going to get it via a finish. Defenders and cybersecurity are always there when we need them. They should get a parade every time they block a novel threat and have streets, sandwiches, babies named in their honor. But most of all, they deserve AI cybersecurity that can stop novel threats before they become breaches across email, clouds, networks, and more. DarkTrace is the cybersecurity defenders deserve and the one they need to defend beyond. Visit darktrace.com forward slash defenders for more information. Support for this show comes from the audible original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine.

The Earth only has a few days left. Roscoe Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix Colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster with the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two Ghosts in the Machine.

Available now, only from Audible. Let's move on to the co-main event of the evening. Dan Ege taking on Andre Feeley. Andre Feeley coming in on short notice just fought at 296 back in December, so a month and a half ago. and right now 50K your favorite minus 166 feeling coming back at plus 140 this should be a fun one man you got any thoughts here

I do think this is going to be a fun one I have a bet down and I'm not sure if I like the bet now that I've made it but I don't feel bad about the bet I got no bet here but I am looking forward to this one so I think this fight's going to be really fun the bet I have is Dan Ege by decision at plus 150 okay I do think Danny Gay should be favored to win this fight. And when he wins, it is largely been by decision.

I mean, he does mix up. He's got submissions. He's got knockouts. Andre Feely is in general, a very, very durable young man. I mean, he's also been finished a few times. But my issue here is I do have a little bit of concern just about how Fili has looked lately. I know that he's actually been doing like okay. He's one one lost one for like the last little bit of his career.

But, you know, fighting Nathaniel Wood. It's a bantam weight coming up. Not like the biggest hitter in the world. Just, and Joe Anderson Brito gets him out of there. I'm not sure where his durability is at at this stage of his career. And Dan Ike, like I said, can get finishes. So maybe I've exposed myself a little bit on the decision. But I do just largely think that Dan Iie should win this fight.

Because basically Dan Ike wins every fight where you don't take. him down. If you look at all of his losses, it's all just been dudes who have taken him down, not just once or twice, but like seven, eight times. Like, my officer, I've took him down like six times, whatever. Bryce Mitchell took him down like a hundred times in that most recent fight. It's, it's the ability to take him down and keep controlling him. And Andre Feeley has not been using his wrestling a ton lately. And he's just not the same quality of wrestler. So I'm actually glad that you said that about he's not using the wrestling lately. I think he has two takedowns in his last six fights. And then in like the two fights before that, he had like nine or ten takedowns.

He's been sticking with the striking more predominantly. And I really believe coming off a month and a half ago, a beautiful first round knockout, feels like he's going to stick with the game plan to strike. And Danny Gay is obviously going to be willing to engage with that. And I think Igay is going to have the success in that. I do think he's going to win this fight. And the durability of Andre Feely, let's talk about the durability of Dan Igay. I mean, he's been in there with some of the best of them, never been submitted, never been knocked out. Really, really durable dude. And I think Andre Feely hasn't had back-to-back wins by finish in like 10 years. I doubt that's going to happen here. So I feel like it would be on him to outpoint him. And I feel like he would have to

use the wrestling to do that. And I'm not sure he is. So I do think, Dan Igay gets this one done. I don't know if it's by decision or finish, though. Yeah, I'm pretty confident in Dan I here. Just because, like you said, the short notice, too, he hasn't been going to the wrestling. And so six weeks, is that enough to, like, really fire back the wrestling gears to get to go?

Maybe, but even so, he's never been that control grappler in the same way that, like, a Bryce Mitchell is or Momstar, Evalv is. You know, we saw him have that against Charles Dordane, but Charles Jordan ain't Dan Ege, you know what I'm saying, brother. And it's like, you talked about who he was getting taken down by. I mean, those names, most are I have a love, Bryce Mitchell.

Like that's the, when Danny Gay loses, it's two guys like that. Calvin Cater. Josh Emmett. I think Josh Schmidt took him down a bunch too. Yep, Korean zombie. Like, he's losing to very, very high-ranked guys. And I'm not sure Andre Fili on short notice is going to be able to supply that level of competition for Dan Hage. So, yeah.

I'm very sure that he was not. I'm kind of talking myself into a Dan Ege bet here. Kind of talking myself into it. That's the thing. I think a Danny gay bet straight. That's where I said I don't, like maybe I should just take him straight. It's minus 165 or whatever. You would kind of like a better price.

But still, I actually, as I looked after I already input the bet and kind of thought about it more, I was just like, honestly, I should probably just have him straight because I think he's going to win. Like I do feel pretty good about his chances to win. But if you, you know, if he can just hold up, then I'll feel like a hero and a king for taking the by decision prop, but I've added some risks that I'm not sure was the wisest. Yeah, I'm seeing a, I'm seeing a minus 163. I think I'm just going to hop in on that. Don't hate it.

Don't hate it at all. I think I'm just going to hop on that. Just the winning unit, nothing crazy, nothing crazy. But yeah, 50K, I'm in. All right, let's keep it rolling on the main card here next up. New fight. Ehor Potia taking on Robert, Breichek. right now our man robbie is your favorite coming in at a minus 198 poti area at plus 164 i mean this is a

slobber knocker this is a slobber knocker if you want him uh bride check dude's got one goal of late and it's to come in here and it is to knock you out uh five straight wins all coming by first round knockout all in less than three minutes i mean eight of his last nine have ended by K.O. He just comes in here and he starts chucking him and he is looking, looking to get you iced out. And perfect dance partner, the duelist, Ihor Potiaia. Loves to get knocked out. Loves to get knocked out. Loves to get knocked out. Loves to fight crazy. I mean, he's a perfect, a perfect dance partner here. I think this one's going to be short-lived. I think this one's

going to be fun and that's about it. Potteri coming in on short notice cutting down to 185 don't know how much that's going to help him. I think someone's getting got here just just as easy as that. Yeah, I think it's more than likely potteri. I just coming in on what like a two weeks, week and a half notice. I'm like that it is not a lot of time for him cutting down new thing like he's also bad like he's not very good. He's not good. Not that Breitjack is good either mind you. I can't really speak to that. I mean he's a, He's making his debut, yeah? Yeah, but I found some tape on.

I mean, he's been nuking a bunch of guys. He doesn't take long. I mean, you could watch his last five fights in like seven minutes. Yeah, it doesn't take long. I'm probably going to do the same thing here. I briefly flirted with Ritechak, round 1, K.O., just for the gigs of it. But it's plus 165.

And I got to tell you, that just seems like a bad bet. Yeah. To get plus 165 on an exact. with an opponent coming in on five days notice or whatever. That's just not smart gambling, so this is a pass for me. I took the under one and a half. Been struggling with my unders this year, but we're just going to keep banging the drum.

I took under one and a half at minus 220. Shooter shoot, baby. Yeah, just keep spraying. I think this one's not going to last that long. Could be wrong. This could be a scenario where they both just like gas out. But yeah, I don't know. I just, both these dudes are finishers.

Both of them have been finished. So that's my thoughts. That's my thoughts. Let's keep it rolling on the main card. Brad Tavares taking on Gregory Robocop Rodriguez. Robocop, big favorite, minus 245. Brad Tavarst plus 200. This one should be fun as well.

Your thoughts here. I'm going Brad Tavaris. I'm taking a little underdog shot here. Tell me. I've only got two. straight up plays. Brad's going to be one of them. I feel a little bad about it

just because I like Robocop. Who doesn't like Robocop? He's incredibly fun. I mean, let me pull this up. He's won like eight bonuses or something just absolutely insane in his very short time in the UFC

because he's just, he's always in there getting or getting got. It's just terrific. He is in there to either get you or to get himself got. That's the gameplay. You know, an accomplished BJJ player who just wants to stand up and chuck them for like half of his fights at least.

He's just, he's everything you want to fight. He's a class BJJ Black Belt that just wants to go in there and box his ass off. Yeah. Just, what if we just play rock him, sock him for a little bit? And I don't use any of this jujitsu nonsense. And that has, that has worked out for him historically. Also, you know, that's how Bruno Faheda sends you into the show. shadow realm.

Fortunately, Brad Tavaar is not really a guy who's sending fools to the shadow realm. But I do think Brad Tavares is just like exactly the sort of middleweight who is really hard to succeed and look good against if you're not really careful. And Gregory Houdriguez, I think is not a very careful dude. Tavares is such a strong defensive wrestler that I don't even think Robocop can get him down effectively. and on the feet.

Yeah, Robocop's got more power, but Tavares, very, very durable dude. I think he's just going to kind of outwork Robocop with a little bit, like a measured sort of functional game. It's going to be a real Brad Tavares performance in there. And as this fight gets a little longer, Robocop, a lot of muscles, gets a little tire, gets a little slower, you know, plus 200.

It's good underdog price. Took it on Brad Tavares. All right. So I'm actually on an underdog play here as well. It's the devil whispering in my ear of everything we just talked about. I'm getting a robocop fight at under two and a half. And I'm getting it plus money. I had to take it plus one 10.

I know Brad Tavares is durable. We all watched the DDP fight. He has shown great their ability. But he did also just get iced out by Bruno Silva. I think he's been knocked out four times in his career. Not the biggest finisher. I think it's been like 10 years. since he got a knockout. No, no, no, 2018, so just six years, just, just six years.

I'm sorry for the disrespect there, Brad. Not a lot of them, no. Man does not have a lot of them on the resume. The Under is hoping for Robocop. Before that, it was 2011, so yes, one in the last 13 years, and he's at a lot of fights, folks. He has had a lot of fights. I mean, 17 of his 28 fights have gone to a decision. So, like, I'm just throwing a unit down on it, but I mean, Robocop is in there, and I'm I'm hoping Robocop does what Robocop does.

This is one that I feel like I'm going to know in like within the first half of the first round. I'm going to know whether this bad boy's going to hit or not. Probably. I mean, there's always the backdoor that Robocop just gassed himself out and then Tvarez can get a TKL late in third. You know, like late enough to still hit your under. But yeah, it's probably, we're probably going to know early the direction this fight is taking. The Brad Tavares KO numbers are always so wild to me that like he's only plus 400 to get a KO and like by decision he's insane by decision he's plus 450 the guys had one knockout in the last 13 years like why is that his favorite route of victory here two of his 15 UFC wins have been by finish yes like the dude is outrageous the dude 13 decision wins in the UFC and couldn't even finish Chris Wyman, who was clearly the most shot man of all time,

and he couldn't get Chris Wyman out of there. I'm setting myself up for a repeat of last week of, why did I bet an under on the Charles Dordane fight? Come Saturday when there's four minutes and 15 seconds left in the third round, and like the under two and a half is about the miss. I'm going to be like, why the fuck did I bet an under on a Brad Tavares fight? But at least you know. We're hoping for a robot.

I'm getting plus money on an under and a Robocop. fight, I got to take it. I got to take it. I got to take it. I wasn't going to take it until I saw the number. I was honestly like, did they mean one and a half? But then I was like, it's Brad Thomas. It is Brad Thomas. All right, let's keep you rolling. Next up, we got Michael Johnson taking on Darius Flowers. Very closely lined fight. Right now, Michael Johnson minus 125, Darius Flowers plus 105. Yeah, dude, I feel like Michael Johnson is better than Darius flowers. That's bold statement.

That's just, going out of the limb there. That's how I feel here. But on the flip side of that, man, Michael Johnson's pretty much 500 fighter, dude. He is 21 and 19. He's 37 years old. And he got put out last time. So do I want to bet him?

The answer I hope is no. I didn't bet him. I didn't bet him. I put it in my bet slip and didn't blow the trigger on it. I was just like... Smart man. I can't. I can't.

I've been disappointed too many times back in Michael Johnson. It's a smart man because, look, you nailed the breakdown in this fight. One, I support Michael Johnson, had him against Mark Daukeesie. It was a great bet. It was a great bet. It was a great bet. I feel great about that bet. But yeah, he's Darius Flowers is not.

And I don't believe in Darius. flowers let's put it that way michael johnson better michael johnson much older michael johnson 500 fighter fought a bunch of killers just exclusively killers no doubt and lost as many times as he has won against exclusively killers uh but 37 old just don't just don't be involved in this fight there's no need absolutely no need to be involved in this fight uh you can just sit and watch and hope michael johnson can can do some cool and you got him at upwards of

plus 250 against Mark D at KC. It was terrific. I backed him last time against... CDF? Yep. And it was underdog money and man,

he was looking good. He was looking good against Diego Ferreira until he wasn't. He was looking good the Michael Johnson story. Honestly, that's what you can call him the 30 for 30. He was looking good against

Tabib and then he wasn't. Yeah. And then Habib just forced him to tap out while talking to him. Yeah. Yeah. And the thing is, Darius Flowers, dude, a lot of wins by knockout. I feel like he's just going to throw caution to the wind. Yeah.

Really thought about a Michael Johnson bet here. If it was like plus 150, I'd have to. But minus 125. I just, that's just a bet that you look back on. Like I looked back on the Joleseo Stoliaranko bet last week. And I was like, you get what you deserve. betting minus money on these people. I felt so dumb when...

Because I didn't even... Like, I wasn't there. And then I was like, I got talked into. I was like, oh, I laid favorite price. Yep. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah, I was going to get...

I was going to get less than 100% ROI on... Yeah. That's not what you went on. I was many moments last week. I was like, why? Why did I do? A silly bet I just made. I'm like, why did I do this?

Why am I watching this? What am I doing with my life? That's what UFC Apex 85 did to me. Let's keep it rolling. Last fight on the main card. Adolfo Vieira, the Black Belt Hunter, taking on Armin Petrosian. Another very closely lined fight. You've got Armin Petrosian minus 105.

Adolfo Vieira minus 115. Strike a versus grappler. About as plain as it gets. I mean, Armine Petrojan, 36. percent takedown defense doesn't doesn't uh put up much resistance on takedowns viera i mean bjj blackbell four-time world champion uh i feel like if he gets a takedown this thing uh this thing could be over i looked at viera first round submission uh plus 375 but i just don't know oh i just took viera straight minus 110 um they the ufc really likes to put arm and petrochean in against j joseph

just like top shelf grapplers. I'm not sure why, but I mean, Kyle Barallo, Gregory Rodriguez, like they're just making him fight dudes who are going to, I mean, AJ Dobson took him down a month. They're just making them fight dudes who are going to grapple him. And to his credit,

he's four and one against him. But I think this is just the Kyle Barallio fight all over again. I think Hidalfo is going to get those takedowns that eat with ease. I think he's going to control Petrosian. So long as he doesn't gas out, I do think it off of your this is just a tailor-made fight for him to look good and all he's got to do is control the cardio

and I'm hoping he's smart enough to do that and at minus 110 I don't like if I lose his bet this is not a Julia Stoliarenko what was I doing like you know why he's okay yeah I feel great about about the action even if you know maybe the bet doesn't win still feel like I'm on the right side of it

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All right, let's head to the prelims. Trevin Giles. The prelims, Connor. Love it. Love it. Officer Trevin Giles taking on Carlos Prates. Right now, Carlos, your sizable favorite coming in at minus 258, Giles plus 210. Yeah, I don't have anything on that. this fight. I think Trevor Giles probably gets caught. Question with their

ability. Carlos loves the strike. Got knockout power. Plus 105 on the K.O. Prop, not really that interested. So I'm just passing. I have Carlos Brates in a parlay. It's a specialty

parlay for me, myself, and I expect no one else to follow it. But Carlos Prates from the last season, the Contender Series. One of the guys, I wrote up breakdown for the site kind of putting each of the guys who got signed into a tiered bucket list basically and Carlos Prates was like the third tier for me and called him a three and D guy just a guy who I think has enough ability to you know be a fun action fighter hang around for a little bit

maybe we won't ever be great but can probably get some bonuses during his time in the UFC trevin giles questionable durability like you said I'm back in my boy from the contender series as one leg of a parlay. Love it. Love a little contender series back as you see your children enter the real world and make their

their UFC debut. I think I didn't actually look at this. I think my CET my contender series prospects are three and one this year. Tom Nolan being a big loss. Big Tom Nolan didn't Big Tom did not do the thing. But otherwise,

the guys I've thought have been good have most of been doing well. so we'll see. All right, next up, Balaji Okai taking on Demir Hadzovic. And right now, Balaji, your favorite. Coming in at minus 310, Demir plus 250. Again, I have nothing on this one. Don't really trust Okai that much at this price.

And Demir is 37 years old, one and three in his last four. And he's not the most active fighter. So I'm just going to pass, man. I'm just going to throw out the old stay away. This is the other leg of the parlay because Belagio Kai is another three-indy guy from my contingency. I was hoping. I was hoping.

You know, just two dudes who I think are going to be fun action fighters probably don't have great. They're a little old, don't have great long-term prospects, but they can be fun. And they're being given pretty good matchups here to be fun against. So I got both of those.

It ends up at minus 120. And then I may put both of them in. in a separate parlay. I haven't quite decided if we want to follow through on that one or not, but we can get to that in a little bit. We sure can. Next up, a strawway bout Loma L'OKBoon-Me taking on

Bruna, Brazil, and right now, Loma, minus 270, Bruna, plus 220. Looking at the match of itself, I don't have a side. I think Loma Luke Boon-Me is the better fighter, but, I mean, it is on ranked women's MMA. the plus 220 underdog is going to be five inches dollar and have a four inch reach advantage.

Just saying. Just saying. I think Loma can wrestle and get this done, but I don't have a side. I am on the over one and a half. I know you're thinking. I know immediately when I said that, you were like, but Loma finished Elise Reed under the one and a half last time. Everyone, if you're driving your car, you just slammed on the brakes and you were like,

but Loma finished Elise Reed under the one and a half? What is he doing? But that was the first time one of her fights had gone under the one and a half in the last five years. Nine of her 11 career fights have gone over. Bruna, Brazil, 10 of her 13 career fights have gone over the one and a half. And like you said last week, women's MMA over one and a half, though it missed last week with Molly McCann are pretty trusty, dusty parlay pieces. So I'm going to go with the over one and a half. Parlayed that with Joe Pfeiffer.

If I didn't go to a decision and then I got one more leg. I thought about using that exact as a parlay. and then I was like, I don't really have anything I want to pair this with. And then you said, but Loma Luke Boominich, and he finished at least reading under the one and a half. So instead I said, you know what? Let's just take that over two and a half, baby. It's been a theme this year for me.

I'm just going to keep riding it. Last year, across the three women's weight classes, over 50% of the fights ended up going to decision. The higher up in way you got, the more likely it was that they went to decision. That's so ridiculous. Man and weight had like a 60th or something percentage. So I'm just, I'm going overs all year long with women's in May fights unless I got a specific reason. And I got to tell you, Loma Boon me, decision machine.

We're going to forget about Elise Reed. Hopefully that's not the start of a trend. Men in black erase it from your memory. Yeah. Blind squirrel finds a finish every now and again. I think that's how the saying goes. so we are just going to assume that this clock is just right back on decision time. Just a nice reminder. This ain't Elise Reed.

This is Brunner, Brazil. That's right. So the over two and a half minus 200. That's my final play of this card, except for a potential parlay leg down the line here. Wow, I got a couple more. I got a couple more. Let's go to Devin Clark, Marcine Prachniel.

Right now, Brown Bear, your favorite, coming in at minus 218. Bracknell plus 180. I'm actually hesitantly, I am on Devin Clark, D.C. Brown Bear. I took him at minus 185. Game plan is simple here, big dog. Game plan simple. Let's just wrestle. Let's just wrestle.

Anytime Prognos is getting wrestled, he seems to struggle. He seems to catch L's, and I think Devin Clark can do that. I mean, could he get knocked out? Yes, that wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm betting on Devin Clark. Kind of got to know what I'm up against there. But I think he knows the game plan. to get this done.

I was going back through some of Prognos fights. Dude has a went over clear roundtree. And he's also been knocked out by Sam Alvey. What a world. When you're in light,

heavy weight and you're not like a good one, a whole lot of opportunity. Just a whole lot of weirdness can happen in that sort of middle ground at 205. End up. I obviously don't have a bet on this. Let me just say, Connor,

that I think you're in trouble here because because I'm betting on Devin Clark almost well that but in my if I were just picking straight I would take Devin Clark grudgingly and I pulled up my topology and I am bad at picking Devin Clark fights. There's nine fights that I have recorded picks in topology. I got six I got six of them wrong. Six of them. That's a number I can live with. Incorrect. That's a number I can live with. All right.

I'll survive. You know, we're black and we're back in brown bear this week. And I think he gets it done. Yeah. It's just not, not for me. I wish you the best. I'm going to lose money at minus odds on Julesia Stoli Arango and Devin Clark back to back. This does feel a little bit like a Stolierranco.

It is a Stoyerango. I mean, this is what it is. I mean, this is what we're stuck with on these down weeks. I got to get bets in. This is what I'm doing it. Just chasing it for the funsies. Let's keep it rolling. Jeremiah Wells is taking on Max Griffin.

Max Griffin is the underdog in this one, but a lot of love for him. A lot of love for him out there. Now plus 130, Jeremiah Wells, minus 155. I actually took Max Griffin last week at plus 170, but now I'm seeing so many people on him. I think he's going to be jinxed, and Jeremiah Wells is going to win.

But the reason, that I took him. Very good durability for our man, Max Griffin. I don't think he's going to get knocked out here. He has good takedown defense. I think he keeps this thing standing. And I think he just gets the better of Wells. I mean, he's got four knockdowns in his last five fights. I'm envisioning the Semmelzberger fight, except Jeremiah Wells doesn't have such an easy time getting into the ground and controlling it for four minutes and 45 seconds each round after getting dropped. I think Max Griffin has success here. I think he gets this hand race.

I think that this is a reasonable bet, but I don't want any part of this fight. I don't. He beat Matthew Semmelzberger, who we know is I can never understand ever. By that logic, I can't understand Jeremiah Wells. Were we both on Sallensberger that week? I almost certainly was because all. All I've done is lose money on Matthew Simmel's. The guy looked like,

it looked like Rocky in there for like 20 seconds each round. And then he just got controlled for the rest of the round. I'm actually just like, just for. I was definitely on him because that was the, that was coming off the Jake Matthews fight. When I was super high on Jake Matthewsberg, was like,

oh, Matthew Simulzberger beat him just by being a physical force. This guy's going to be great. And then I'm just, I'm never going to touch anyone who fought Matthew Simulsburger. That's my new rule. Just avoid at all costs because he's tainted, he's tainted the goods. Can't bet on them. Round one, Matthew Simulisberger gets a knockdown, gets controlled for three and a half minutes.

Round two gets a knockdown, gets controlled for three minutes and nine seconds. Round three, no knockdown, got controlled for four minutes and 32 seconds. And that's the Matthew Simulsberger story right there. There it is. Got the knockdown, didn't get the finish. Got the knockdown, lost the fight. Couldn't? Still waiting on that finish.

Lost the round. Still waiting on that finish. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Next up. Just a beauty of a fight. Zach Pauga taking on Bogdan Gouskov. Right now, Zach Pauga.

Your favorite. Zach Pauga, a favorite in the UFC fight, minus 125. Bogdan Gouskov coming back at plus 105. This fight is binary to me. It goes one of two ways. Guskov comes in like it seems like you, always does if you go back and watch his fights and he just starts throwing the haymakers getting after it getting physical forces powga to engage and someone gets clipped or powga slows it down makes it boring

pushes him on up against the cage gets zero takedowns and has like 12 minutes of control time and it goes to a decision i mean this dude took jordan right jordan right the beverly hills ninja who was just like the biggest moneymaker on taking his unders ever took him all the way to a decision by just holding him up against the cage. Zero takedowns in that fight, eight and a half minutes of control time. But I'm going to side with the former. I think Goosekhov's going to dictate the pace on this one. I think he's physical enough. I think he's big enough to not accept just getting held against the fence.

And I think he's going to make Pauga engaged 16 of his 17 fights to finish under the two and a half. So I'm using that as a parley piece to finish it off. This, LeBoon me over one and a half. Main event doesn't go to a decision. I almost bet on Goosecov just because he looks like Noho Hank from Barry. And that's enough for me to be like, why not?

You know, let's have a little fun on the prelims. And then I was like, I don't, then I'd have to watch a Zach Pauga fight. And again, I'm not working this. I'm not working this weekend.

So I probably will not be, uh, watching this one. The skips on the apex fights. I love it. I don't know. Well, I am working the Super Bowl. So I'd probably rather work the apex of the Super Bowl off.

But whatever. It's fine. What are you even working on during the Super Bowl? You know, you got to be there with Connors at the Super Bowl. Stuff happens. Just got to be around. You know, I mean, I'm still going to watch Super Bowl. Don't get me wrong.

But, you know. Well, I can't be just absolutely shmammered watching the Super Bowl. But in exchange for not having to watch that program, fight i accept that trade except that trade nine times out of ten my friend all right let's keep it rolling hider amiel making his debut taking on a fernie garcia uh right now amiel big favorite growing minus one 98 garcia plus 164 uh i got nothing on this fight fernie's tough but this is very short notice for him like a week he's also up a weight class um i feel hider amil gets it done but uh minus 200 on a debutante I'm just going to pass.

I think that's smart, Hider Emil also from the contender series. He was in the just another guy category. So I'm debating whether I just want to do an all-contender series dudes parlay and tag him in with Precious and Oki, because that does at least bump the price to get up to plus 180 on the three-leg.

But he should win. Ferni Garcia's coming in on four days notice or something insane. But I was not that in, with Heidi Emil on the Contender Series. You know, looks great. Like, great jawline. Got to respect that for the man.

Looks good getting off the bus, man. A shout out. Looks good, shout out. It'll take you a long way in this life. I'll tell you that much. Astridor. Stastrewd over. You get a good jawline and a good hairline.

You're pretty much unstoppable. Probably unstoppable as far as Fernie Garcia goes, but I think it's smarter just to not put money on this man in these circumstances. All right. Last up, Daniel Marcos. taking on a Ritchie Lang. Right now, Daniel Marcos' favorite and growing. Minus 245.

Ritchie Lang plus 200. The undefeated Peruvian is who I will be taking in this one. Took Daniel Marcos of minus 200. I really think this is going to be 15 minutes of striking. I know, like, Marcos didn't look that great last time out of it against Davy Grant. You can make the argument that he lost that fight. But I really do think this is just going to be. going to be a strictly striking affair, and I think he gets it done.

Ericie Lang, super hitable, is willing to take a few to give a few. I'm going to trust in the durability of Marcos, and I think he's just going to outstrike him and outpoint him over the three rounds. I think that's probably what's going to happen, but Ehrichelang has a cool hat, and I've decided that you should probably just not bet against people with cool hats. He's got a pretty cool name, too. I'm not going to lie. A great name.

Great name. If you haven't seen the hat, I mean, watch any of his fights, he wears this. in the post fight. It's not as cool as like, you know, Habibs Papka or Shafkat Rakhmanov, whatever that hat is. He's going to have an aura to him, though. Yeah. But, you know, it's still, it's a unique hat.

It's bright blue. It's cool. Nicknames is the Mongolian murderer, too. That's a pretty cool nickname. That's a pretty cool name. Very, very cool nickname. And, you know, if you're just a guy with a cool hat, I am not going to want to bet against you. So, yeah, I think he probably loses, but of the hat rules in effect here. Yeah, that means, that's just smart caping right there.

That's how we do, maybe. Yeah, the hat is, yeah, not quite a Habib or Hamzat level, but, I mean, it's an interesting one. It's perfect for me. It's still a unique hat. Oh, it's incredibly unique. If one of my boys pulled up in this, I'd be like, what's up, man? Where'd we get this hat from?

More importantly, I've just learned enough that if I'm fighting a dude and he rolls up in a different, unique hat. I've made a mistake. Somebody did not tell me appropriately because nine times out of ten, that fighter is some badass from the mountains of the Caucasus mountain region or Uzbekistan or something. And I'm about to get my ass handed to me. We know enough about Erii Lang to know that that's not like necessary, but I'm just playing it safe.

He was from Inner Mongolia. I don't know why that just sounds. That's all hard. Hard-nosed people. I was going to say that sounds like a place that puts out some tough people. Up on the step. Oh, wow. I'm looking at some pictures.

Yeah, it's just trees and snow. That's all I'm saying. A couple cows. Wow. Wow. A couple cows. This looks like a nice area that Ritchie Lang is from. Wow.

I mean, we're talking about pastures wide open. Pastures. A lot of cows here. I mean, this, dude, this looks like the windows background. This might actually be the new way we should handicap is just purely on Instagram photos. This is actually just, I just Google. I think this is Schillengol, Inner Mongolia.

Okay. Yeah, man. I mean, we got wild horses. It really just looks like like the Windows XP background. I mean, this is a great looking place. So, yeah, we've now looked up the homeland of Ritchie Lang,

but I will be going with the Peruvian, Daniel Marcos. This actually got me a little bit curious here. Peru got some mountains up in it too. I was going to say, I don't want to see where, where Sunkora is from just Peru. He is fighting out of San Miguel.

Just Peru. Which is in, I mean, Peru's got some mountains, llamas, waterfront. Some waterfront area. Nice.

I'll say there's going to be a lot more waterfront in Peru than Mongolia. Yeah. Yeah, this looks like a nice spot though, too. Shout out. Shout out. That is it.

UFC Apex 86 is in the book. two apex cards up, two apex cards down. And that brings us to next week, Anaheim, California. The site of UFC 298 cannot wait for this one. Cannot wait. It's the first good card of the year. Ooh, and it is a good one. It's a good one.

It's kicking us off for a run of pay-per-views that are just going to beat the electable, my friends. It is 298, 299, 300. Those are, we're getting treated. We are getting treated. I can tell you that much, the main event next week, Volkanowski versus DePoria, 11 out of 10. Can't get more excited for that one. Cannot wait.

We'll break it all down. We'll talk about it. Pour you, BSD, too? Or is that 299? No, that's 299. Oh, that's my, that's miami. What's the comment? Oh, Robert Whitaker Pallocasta.

Correct. Sign me up. He and Gary coming back at it. 298. Marob Suhudo? 290. 2.98. We'll see you next week, folks. Love you.

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. Okay, only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line. But first? There, the last one. Enjoy a Coca-Cola for a pause that refreshes.