MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Jon Jones Keep Cashing Tickets In His Return At UFC 285?

Episode Date: March 1, 2023

The UFC is back and so is Jon Jones! That's right, this weekend one of the greatest fighters of all-time (and one of the greatest bets of all-time) returns to the cage for the first time in three years, and this time, it's at heavyweight! Jon Jones takes on Ciryl Gane for the vacant heavyweight title at UFC 285 on Saturday and the No Bets Barred boys are back with a breakdown. This week, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew are joined by the esteemed Eric "New York Ric" Jackman to talk about Jones' long-awaited return and debate whether or not he can capture a second belt. Then the discussion turns to the rest of the stacked UFC 285 card, including a main card Wolfpack Wager, some Bo Nickal discussion, and even some dissension with the undercard action. Plus, Jed is running it back with another All In On Shevchenko bet. Tune in for Episode 37 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow New York Ric: @NewYorkRic Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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It is going on, y'all. We are back. It is another episode of No Bet's Barred this time for UFC 285. John Jones. The return of John Jones this time at heavyweight, on Cyril gone. Card is stacked to the gills. I mean, especially this main card.

I cannot wait for all five fights going down on this one. We've got Jed. We have got New York Rick in the house as a special guest. I think there's some dividing lines here. I think there's some dividing lines between the people on this podcast, and I cannot wait to get into it. I'm excited because I think you might be right. And that means that you, you know, you podcast with me,

you see Rick every day. You work with him on the MMA hour. You live at least much closer than we live. So you get to be a just and fair arbiter of who is correct. Cough, cough, cough. It's me. But we'll get into all that. Ricky, thanks for joining us.

It's a pleasure. It's only love. And I'm debuting my very sultry Barry White voice just for you guys. I got to say it's working for me. I'm actually starting to believe that you got sick on purpose. Your kids got sick. And you're like, you know what? Let me get some of that.

So I can time this out perfectly for my no bets barred. second appearance and I'll just sound that much better because we're audio only. So you're doing it for the listeners as well. Last time I was in a closet, this time I'm going sultry. We're mixing it up every single time. Yeah, I mean, we're audio only, but like this setup you got, man, I mean, it's completely black. There's some sort of light that I want to say it's your laptop. It could be a flashlight. It could be a candle, whatever it is. It's shining from below you. You could be telling ghost stories right now. I made some crazy shadows off. The Kamaru Usman sounds like he's always done.

telling a go story. Yeah. I'll just break into that later. Dude, no, I stick with this MMA SMR that you got going on voice right now. You can debut that for the MMA hour later with these dulcet tones of yours. Yeah, I know this is kind of weird. Like normally you're in like an incredibly bright, like all white room. But yeah, here we are in some dark times.

All right, before we get into the 285 last week. It's about to be more dark times for him as I lay the verbal beat down. Wow, verbal beat down. his boy. That's what we're going with a verbal beatdown. We will get into that in just one second. We're coming off of UFC Vegas 70. What a card. Is that what just happened? Bellator 291, a little KSW, maybe a little one championship sprinkled in there, a little Jake Paul Tommy Fury. I ended up with a winning week, Flyweight unders. Unfortunately, we lost that. I mean, it would have been a much bigger week had Charles Johnson. That's what I'm saying. Charles Johnson, Wayne in 125, that fight gets

finished, no doubt about it. Yeah, had we known, uh, you know, that would have been a lot, it would have been a lot cooler, would have been a lot cooler, but you know, it is what it is. Uh, Jake Paul, the fix was not in. Uh, I thought, you know, maybe, maybe we were going to be able to cast some tickets there. Not the case. Alas, you know, to come away with some profit after last week, I, I can't really complain. Uh, and now, 285. I mean, three minutes into this, It feels like it's time to just dive right in. I mean, we have a lot to talk about. So for the sake of keeping this on turn two hours, we probably should just hop right in.

I'm hype. I'm hype. So let's get right into it. Let's not make the people wait. Let's not make New York Rick wait. I mean, I think he has to get back to his coffin, whatever vampire entities he has here in his house. The bats, I can see some bats hang around. Anyway, let's get right into it.

Let's start. The main event. It is the heavyweight championship of the world. the baddest man on planet earth will be determined on Saturday. For some, maybe some still want to say Francis and Ghana. But John Jones taking on Cyril gone, I'm going to just go let you to take the floor. Right now, you can have John Jones for the price of minus 165, zero gone coming back at plus 140. This line has kind of been a little bit of a roller coaster. I want to say John Jones opens up in a favorite, shoots to an underdog. I know a lot of people got him at Plus

Money, and now he's all the way back creeping down. I feel like that number is going to continue to drop. But as far as a pick, my brain's in knots, and that's why I have you two to untie the knots for me. You know what? Guests should go first. That's always my opinion. You know, I want to, he's been waiting for this day for, has it been 10 years since we last saw John? It's been a long time that Rick has been waiting just many, many years and even more if we're looking for the last time John was impressive. So Rick, you can come out here and you can get this thing that you've had, you know, a kindergartner's full life cycle to prepare this speech for you. Yeah, and I have a kindergartner, so I can attest to the fact that it has been exactly that long. Here's the case for

John Jones. And here's what, here's, let me start with why I love John Jones. first of all, he's the goat. I don't care what anybody says. You can put an asterisk on it. That's fine. He's the goat. Two, John Jones is a very troubled human being. But inside the cage, he's got, as they say, he's got that dog in him.

Now, you can argue about his last couple of fights not looking impressive. I would chalk that up to, A, lack of inspiration, right? It's hard to get up to fight Tiago Santos, Anthony Smith. Dominic Reyes when you've been dominating so long and coming off names like Shogun Huah and Lyoto Machita and Rampage Jackson and doing everything in the sport. He's done it for so long that inevitably there's a burnout and a lack of motivation and he's admitted as such. It's convenient to do that. I will grant you that. I truly believe that he wasn't motivated for those last couple of fights. Now, even granting that in those last couple of fights, what I think we have to keep in mind,

yes, there are arguments that he could have lost. I've heard people say he could have even lost the Tiago Santos fight. Jedd, I actually believe in real time you scored it for him, unless I I sure did. And when I went back, well, I'll continue to let you have your time. When I went back and rewatched it, I still feel good about it. I don't have an issue with you scoring that fight for John Jones. I don't think it's a robbery. Yeah. But I went back and rewatched it when I was doing my tapes and I was like, yeah, I still think Tiago won three of these. Yeah. And I think it's fair. And I think it's 100% valid and fair to criticize John Jones's last couple of performances. Dominic Reyes, a lot more people have claimed that he won that fight and scored it.

for Dominic Reyes. The one thing I would point to in those fights is the later rounds are where John Jones shined. That is what he has always done. He has that dog in him. And when the rubber meets the road and it's championship rounds time, that's when he tends to show up. And I'm not 100% sure in a fight with a guy who's as green as Cyril Ghan that he's

going to be able to withstand that. We saw him completely fold the second half of his fight against Francis and Ghanu. Now, we can talk about the wrestling. We can talk about the size of Francis Ngano, but that's when Francis Ngano took over, and that's when John Jones takes over these fights. Now, do I think there's a chance that he comes out and has a better performance and that it's not just him having to dig deep in the later rounds?

I do. I think there's some things that he does that I think will give Cyril Gahn some problems. If he is mixing up his game well, if he is using those oblique kicks to counter some of the kicking game that Cyril Gahn tends to use, and if he's staying as long as he can be, I think John Jones is a problem for any fighter on this planet, whether it be Cyril Ghan, Francis Ngano,

light heavyweights, whatever it is. He has such physical gifts. Now, how good he's going to look at heavyweight, how good his camp went, how good he's going to look after that layoff, I readily admit and accept that these are variables that I don't know the answer to. So if I'm professing the gospel of John Jones,

it is with the understanding that there are some unknowns that I am willing to wash away, that I'm willing to say, I assume these to not be a factor. And if they are not, that version of John Jones in my mind beat Cyril Ghan. And I'm willing to accept that risk. And I believe that we will see the greatest fighter who's ever lived show that he is the greatest fighter who's ever lived against somebody who I don't want to be too critical. But I don't rate Cyril Gahn super highly. I think he's more the product of a weaker heavyweight division. than he is somebody that I would rate super highly in the pantheon of all time heavyweights.

Now, he's young in his career and there's a lot of time to build upon that. But right now, present day, Cyril Ghan, I don't really read him very highly. I would like to ask you a question here, Ricky. And it's in good faith. This is not me being a little shitbox, which I've been known to do. John has said that I wasn't motivated. And that has been like a big, you acknowledge it. That's been a big part of the narrative here.

And certainly about for John Jones. backers. My question and the question that I would love to ask John Jones should I ever get the opportunity is, then what the fuck were you doing then, man? Like, if you weren't motivated, you've been talking about going to heavyweight for 10 years. It is almost 10 years since the first time he meant, like he mentioned it. And if you, if the reason you fought Tiago Santos and it was a shitty performance was I just wasn't geared up for, like, I can maybe even accept that like that would be a reason. But then to be like, well, I'm still bored and I'm going to fight Dominic Gray.

I was like, why not go to heavyweight my guy? Why if John Jones was bored, did he not challenge himself in a different way? Why is that the more believable thing for many people, not just you? Many, many people are taking John in his word here as opposed to, well, it's really hard to be on top for a decade, John Jones has been fighting for since 2008. That timeline rolls pretty, pretty much with what we've seen historically when fighters start to taper off. And also, I'm going to be this guy because I somehow am just him.

Like, I'm one of the prominent John Jones haters, apparently, because I have eyes. And I looked at the guys he fought. And the UFC, I just tweeted this because UFC just posted a highlight video of John Jones and his return. and all those freaking highlights came from the Obama administration from a lifetime ago against all-time fighters. I am not here to throw shade on guys like Leodo Machita and Rashad Evans and Vitor Belfort and Shogun Hua. Also, if you think about those names, I just said, four of them fought at middleweight at various points in their career. And one of them should have, he was a fat light heavyweight who we love because he was a fat,

that light heavyweight, but Shogun was never like the, the leanest, false-stocked-out thing. To me, the simplest answer has always been, John Jones is an immensely talented fighter, probably the most talented fighter I've ever seen, who fought. You say that the heavyweight division is bad, and he took advantage of it. John Jones came at the optimal time to take advantage of a small and old light heavyweight division. it just so happens that the people he got to beat were legends because of the the marchiness of that division, whereas heavyweight doesn't have the same cachet as the VTors and the Chale Sunnins, etc., etc.

So why do you choose to believe John's narrative instead of mine? So it's a fair point. The one thing I push back against is I'm not going to accept the idea that those guys that he beat at the time that he beat him were small or not in their, like, that was. No, objectively small. You can't deny that. Compared to him. Compared to him.

Yes. Yes. But everybody, he has those physical gifts or everybody in that division at that time. Yes, but that's one of the big points here is those physical gifts aren't here. And when he no longer had those physical gifts, when he's fighting, you know, Alexander Gustafs in the first time, the second one, I actually think is maybe his best. performance of all time. Smoke done.

Like an unbelievable performance one. But he's fighting guys who can match him to some extent physically, like we saw with Dominic Reyes, Diago Santos, to a lesser extent, Anthony Smith, though he was pretty clean in that fight as well. He struggled a lot more. And that's really been the crux of my thing here. I think it's not fair. I don't want to harp on it too much.

I think it's not fair. I think discounting somebody like Daniel Cormi, who's competed very, very well at heavyweight and then at light heavyweight, somebody who he dominated, the first one wasn't domination, but got the best of twice, I think, says a lot as well. I'm not going to, I don't want to litigate every single one of those, but I don't think that part is fair. But I think the rest of it is fair.

And I think there's one thing that you didn't mention that I also think contributes to that is we've got 10 years of tape on John Jones. If you're somebody who's coming to fight John Jones, there is a lot of tape of him spending time in the octagon. And you can study that and you can see his tendencies, and you can see what he's about. So they're going to be prepared. And I think that's what he suffered from more was,

yes, he didn't have certain physical advantages over guys like Dominic Reyes in terms of the size, but they also had a lot more time to study him than he had to study them because of the amount of tape that's out there. And the athletes are getting better and he is getting older. All these things I can accept. I acknowledge these. I actually think that these are a critical part of the analysis. but I'm willing to, but I'm willing to grant that even under those circumstances, I do believe

his mix of physical gifts, his ability to game plan, his ability to utilize his tools, even against bigger opposition. I actually think it's been a little bit overblown that size, everybody points to the size, right? They tend to minimize it to be that the size was the only thing. We obviously know that's not true. That's not how fighting works. It's not only size.

He's also so skilled and so capable. at putting everything he does together. But I also think that there's an advantage in being a smaller man potentially at heavyweight. We'll see where he nets out on the scale, right? But I actually think there's an advantage of potentially being the smaller man coming up. Like we've seen, I mentioned Daniel Cormia earlier,

I think there's some advantages he gets against true heavyweights. Now, Cyril Gahn is not a huge heavyweight. He's not a very big heavyweight. But his frame is large and he is a true heavyweight. I think there will be some factors at play that actually benefit John going up. now he'll lose that length that he had over everybody that he had at light heavy weight. And there's certain factors that will be lessened and diminished by going up.

But I am I am okay with admitting that John Jones' best performances were not the most recent ones and the ones earlier. But I am expecting that he will perform better in this new week class, not only because of the excuse of finding motivation, but also because I feel like he will have some advantages stylistically against Cerellis. roll gone. See, this isn't actually going to be as bad as it could have been. Zerick and I agree in principle on several things. We disagree. I disagree with like some of your points pretty wholeheartedly, but I can at least like

recognize that it's okay. I got to be honest, though. And at this point, I want to rope Connor back in here and ask, ask his thoughts. I would frankly feel better about Jones's abilities in this fight if he hadn't put on all this weight that he has. because I agree in concept that he could have some advantages coming in as a smaller man. I am not confident he's coming in as a smaller man. And from what I've seen in the training footage he's posted to social,

he does not appear to have carried his speed while adding this weight to him, which gives me great pause for concern here. Like how are you looking at this, Barks? Are you paying much attention to the John Jones hit mitt stuff, or is this not calculating into your betting analysis? Yeah, yeah. I mean, as far as betting analysis goes, I don't have a ton of it. I mean, I can see the points that both of you guys are making, and that's what I've been wrestling with myself, pretty much since this fight was announced. Like, every time I started getting hyped on Cyril Gone, then I'm like, well, John Jones is John Jones.

He is an unbelievably talented fighter, and now he's got the motivation. Now, you know, is he going to come back and be rejuvenated? And we really don't have like a huge sample size of Cyril Gahn and the opponents that he's fought aren't the same level of the ones that John Jones be. And I, you know, if I start being like, oh, man, John Jones is going to win this. Then I'm like, man, he's been off for like three years. He's 35 now. He is going up a weight class.

Is he going to be able to have those same advantages? I go back and forth. I'm never going to be able to give you a confident. pick this week. What I will say, what I am doing, the decision's been made since the fight got announced. Since I saw the billboard on T-Mobile Arena, I mean, this is a no-brainer for me. I am not an old-head fan. Like, I am not like you guys. I am of the newer generation of fan, so I didn't, you know, have this long moment where John Jones just reigned supreme and was just absolutely dominant. I, you know, I watched the Corneigh fights when they got very big and they got really

and the casual and public eyes. If I had, I probably would be cheering for John Jones here. But as a newer fan, I just love Cyril Gahn. Like, he just seems like a likable dude. He seems like a guy I would like to chill with, love his fighting style. I mean, I love his style outside of the Octon. He's got some sick shirts, too. Shout out to his merch site.

So I'm cheering for Cyril Gahn. I just want him to win. I think the fact that he's from Paris is sick. As far as, like, actual breakdown betting analysis, I just gave it to you. My mind is in pretzels. I can see anything happening in this fight. Don't listen to what I say. I am betting on this biasedly as a fan.

Oh, so you are betting on this. I haven't placed it yet. So here's the thing. I haven't placed it yet. Let me tell you the bet to make because I have it for you. Oh, wow. Because I have a bet I am very confident in. Now I am not confident in the outcome of this fight per se.

Tough to be. Because I'll be honest. I'm going to throw a bone to our buddy New York cricket. Wow, I like that. I like that little plan on words. I just extend an olive branch, you know. I when this fight was originally

you know the poster went up I was like oh siragon is gonna run him like he is this is as bad of a matchup as it could be for John Jones that was your initial thought really that was my initial thought was this is as bad of a heavyweight matchup as could exist for him

and then I dove into the tape and it's actually a much better matchup than I thought I'm still not certain it's a good one but it is not it is not catastrophically bad I am now really extremely convinced that Francis Ngano is a catastrophically bad matchup for John Jones. But I thought Seorgon was as well and maybe worse.

And I don't think that that's true anymore. Primarily because I disagree with some of what Rick said about, I frankly think John Jones gets maybe a little more credit than he deserves for his game planning. Not that his game plans aren't effective. but to me he has always been a fighter who has fought specifically around an idea of himself, which is not the true version. To me, where John Jones is exciting and thrilling is as a top position grappler, and I think he's probably the best clinch fighter that has ever existed in this sport.

And his game is not built around those tools. You watch Connor McGregor fight, and someone who knows jack shit about fighting can very quickly pick up on that dude throws a left hand and his entire game is built around getting that left hand to connect. John Jones's game has largely been built around being long and he's not very good. Like he is actually not a very good distant striker. He's a capable one because he's quick and strong and like has these tools. But he, you see it when he gets into exchanges. When someone gets into boxing range, he struggles very difficult. Like he has real trouble with that. But rest of his game is built around this attrition work. And that's why he thrives in the later

rounds because he's just tapping you. But if you can get inside his wheelhouse, he doesn't have the tools. He has to clean, get away, and move out. Whereas I think his game shouldn't just entirely be, let me put my hands on you and you're fucked because everyone he has ever put his hands on is fucked. So he can do that to Cyril God. And I think he can do that pretty effective. And that's why, that's where I have a lack of confidence in my pick on this fight. If John wants to do the thing he has tried to do against Tiago Santos and Dominic Reyes and just stay on the outside and pot shot away and work the oblique kick, that is opening up a world of opportunity for Seel Gahn to simply be better in this range than him

and throw it away. Because John didn't really pick up the pace in any of those fights when he was struggling. he just kept going. But if John does, just look at the Francis fight and it's like, I'm going to tackle that dude. Cyril Gaon is in a world of trouble. I just have no confidence that he, I have no idea if he will do it. So the answer I've come up with is I cannot put money on John Jones as a favorite. I just fundamentally am opposed to it, given all of the other factors and all of the stuff.

And I don't even feel great about taking Cyril Gaon it straight. It's maybe not awful, but I don't feel great about it. But zero gone by decision is plus 3.30. And I don't see a world where gone wins this fight and gets a knockout. John Jones, for whatever your issues with him, and I clearly have shown many, that man is as tough as a $2 stake. There is no quit in him, and that chin is not going to be cracked. And gone doesn't try to finish you.

gone will let the fight play out and go to a decision. So I think the best bet for this fight, the most sensible and reasonable, and it may not be a winner, but I think the best bet on this fight is zero gone by decision at plus 3.30. And then I have several other bets tied into this fight as well. Couldn't agree with you more. I mean, you kind of lay out the case, right, for how both of them can win. There's clear paths to victory. Couldn't agree more. Like the DC and Glover clinches is what John Jones should always be doing.

But instead he, he, dude, Leono Machita. Leona Machita was dummying him on the feet. He was like, I'm going to grab you and kill you instantaneously. And the top game that he showed on the way up right until basically the title fight, he was just taking dudes down because that was his sole mission and elbowing their face in. I think he's capable of all those things like you said. But this fight exists in the margins, right? It's, is that guy still in there?

Does he have the size to do it at heavyweight against the guy in Cyril Gahn who is naturally bigger or has been naturally bigger? If he does and if he's motivated to do that, you see a clear path to victory, but how long is three years away in fight time? There's so much that exists in the margins. For me, I'm willing, and I have a principle when I used to make bets more heavily, if you can get one of the best fighters of all time, if you can get somebody, principle. If you can get somebody who's one of best fighters of all time at minus 155,

I'm willing to take the gamble on it. And if I'm, if I bust out and if I'm wrong, I can live with that. But most of the time it has, it has proved successful. The last time John Jones probably floated around these odds was Cormier. And I love Daniel Cormier. I've been touting him as a future champion since his debut in Strike Force. You can go back to the MMA hour tape. I was one of the biggest Daniel Cormier fans you'll ever find. But if you're going to give me John Jones at sub minus 200 odds, I'm going to take it. I'm going to take it and I'm going to live with the consequences of that. I'm willing to risk on that guy who, as you said, is tough as a $2 steak, has never shown that will to quit. One of the things that I think works in his favor, especially

when it comes to this layoff, you can say a lot of things about John Jones. You can talk about lack of preparation and things that have haunted him and rumors swirling around certain fights in the preparation. When he steps in the cage, that's not there. When he steps in the cage, he's is prepared to fight every single time. I'm confident that he's gotten enough reps to at least be to that level. But there are, there are questions. There are huge questions that I'm willing to ignore. And then that's where I'm leaning. I will acknowledge that if you have bet on John Jones every fight of his career, you've done financially very well for yourself. Yeah, I mean, this could be one of those fights. We always talk about it. We always talk about it, Jed, like where you look back and it's like,

damn, they were giving us John Jones at minus 140, minus 150, whatever it may be. Two things in want to throw out to you. One, is there any world where Cyril Gons take down defense and ability to fight the ground game looks much more competent in this fight as opposed to the Francis fight? Because I feel like the training camp, they were like, he's not taking this thing to the ground. Like, we just need to dodge the knockout power. So I think that is almost certainly probably involved as well. But frankly, one of the big thoughts as I went back and rewatch these fights is John Jones is John Jones has never been as impressive of a wrestler as has been made out to be. He is an astoundingly good defensive wrestler.

His offensive wrestling largely takes place in the clinch. We've seen him shoot a couple of doubles and stuff in his previous several fights. But he didn't really get much out of those. Like when he would shoot a double on Dominic Reyes, Dominic Reyes was able to get out there. And so I just don't, I'm not sure. The other part of it, too, is I think to some extent, Cyril Ghan had no anticipation that Francis and Ghanu was going to take him down. Yeah, that's what I'm saying.

Why, yeah, why would he? And this is the part that is the most speculative of this thought chain for me is Francis wasn't hitting like the cleanest takedowns. Francis is just the most powerful man in combat sports and would get a body lock and a toss him down. And John Jones may well be, like, super, super strong. I have no idea until I see it. So I can't reckon that he can do the same things.

I think early, John Jones will have a very hard time scoring takedowns. Later, though, that's where I think this fight has a real opportunity for Jones, too. In the third round, like we saw with Francis, start to wear on him a little bit. I agree with that. I feel exactly the same way, and it's going to come down to that first couple of clenches. Like, is John Jones adapted to the size moving that body, shifting a body as big as Cerels? It's not going to be in Cerels control. Let's just call it that.

Like, regardless of what you thought about his takedown defense, it's not stellar. But John Jones, can John Jones take advantage of that is still a mystery to me. I don't think it's as automatic as John Jones is some all-time wrestler and going to take him down easily. also circling back to something i agree with you francis and ghanu was the was the problem matchup for everybody um francis was yeah i wouldn't rewatch that con fight and i remember everybody being like disappointed until they learned about the knees uh and then i i was just watching it's like dude this is this is incredible this dude oh no i had an engunuch ticket and i was going crazy like every take down he got i was like people the general reaction was negative and i like i like i like

left rewatching that fight this morning and I tweeted it as like, man, it is an incredible shame that Francis Ngon is probably never going to fight like a super relevant heavyweight again. Yeah, I would almost say certainly the peak of this man's career. And like, don't get me wrong, I'm going to watch the hell out of him dunking whoever, you know, like Phil the Free's getting rocket ship to the Moon, sign me up for it. Love Phil the Freeze, love KSW though. Yeah, love them both. But watching, watching. We're never going to get real, real high level with him again probably. And that's a shame.

We should really start doing like a video documentary series where we go back and break down like the public ideologies going into some of these fights. Because I remember when I took in Ganu, so many people gave me shit going into that fight. And it was just like, gone was the future. It was like this was the coronation for Cyril Gan. And it's just like how times have changed. One of the thing I wanted to throw out, you have one of the first times we talked about it, the point spread bets in MMA, it's only available on certain books. It's available on, you know, like I just didn't worry going. Yeah, like on a bet online. Now, I don't have anything down. I likely won't have anything down. But one of the first times I became aware of these. I was actually talking with Rick and Rick was like, yeah, you know, I actually used to take those every once in a while and it was perfect for a John Jones fight because this was a guy that at heavyweight.

He had some finishing upside, but most of the time he would just go to the scorecards and he would win by a fairly dominant decision. John Jones, this feels like if you were going to bet it, Rick, like if you were going to it. John Jones minus five and a half. So like he'd have to win like a 48, 47 with a 4946 mixed in there is plus 175. I probably don't have much interest in this, but like I feel like in this one, John Jones has the much more finishing upside. And then I don't know if he is who some people think he is. Like, I feel like he's winning a wider decision. I'm probably not going to take it, but it's interesting to see that line.

I don't hate that line. I think the extra value that you get at the plus 175 does alleviate some of that idea of taking John against somebody you might feel like is it a coin flip. So, yeah, I like that bet. I don't hate that bad at all. Jed, I love the shout on the decision because as we begin to wrap things up on this fight, I mean, it's the CB special. you already know what it is, parlaying the over one and a half, minus 4.50. Oh, you're taking the one and a half. Okay. I'm using the, I'm using the two and a half in a parlay piece.

I do not blame you at all. I mean, I know these dudes are heavyweight, but zero gone. Eight straight over one and a half. John Jones, nine straight, 15 of his last 16, have gone over one and a half. Are we getting an official heavyweight over here? Are we taking the over four and a half? We sure are, because it's a heavyweight fight. I would hope so. It's a heavyweight champion. It's the heavyweight title. Gotta do the heavyweight over. And I have one more.

I haven't made this bet because I wanted to talk this out with y'all. But I feel I'm drawn to it. I wanted the odds for just fight goes to a split or majority decision to be better than they are. But zero gone by split decision at plus 1,200. Because as I was watching this fight, I agree to some extent with what Rick's looking at here, right? we're like, John's probably going to do very well in the last two rounds because he has historically done that. And so the biggest issue for Cyril Gahn in general to me is that he doesn't genuinely doesn't leave emphatic moments of a fight, right?

He's picking away. Coincidentally, that's sort of who John Jones has become as well. So we're looking at two guys who are working the margins, as Rick said, which just leaves a lot of chaos in there. for the judges. And so I could see Gahn having a great first two round, the third round being up in the air. Maybe John comes on strong down the stretch or John gets a take down in the fifth. So we're in a situation where we know Gahn is probably won two and John has definitely won like the fifth round and then the others are up in the air.

I just, this kind of feels like we could get a grimy splity here and I sort of want to have action down on it. I think it makes a lot of sense. is just you just think about the idea to your point, those highlight moments, neither of these guys really has finishing power. Like, you know, Gone has gotten some TKOs in his career. John has gotten some TKOs in his career. But most of the time, they're not those one definitive shots, right?

It's the reason why I was so confident picking Francis and Gano against Cyril Gahn. I just don't think he had the tools to get to Francis without getting clip. Now, that ended up being a completely different fight than I expected there. But without that stopping power, I think there's some chance for it to be close rounds. and it to be split. So I also like that one as well. So those seem like to throw a little sprinkle on it. Just to feel alive, just to feel something. I mean, it's going to get really crazy if you get that. You know, you hear Bruce just like, X, Y, Z has it for. Oh, yeah. If you hear that, it's all going to be. Jones. And then the heart just like, and the craziest part about that is that buffer's not stopping.

You know, the train keeps on rolling. He's reading those scorecards. And the heart just starts pounding for like a quick 15 seconds. That's $1,200. It's a big cash. I don't, I'm, all right, so I'm betting on gone in, in some way. Personally, I feel like as we approach the start of the card, this is a huge event for the UFC, you're going to get those fans that aren't as involved on a week-to-week basis, maybe not, you know, in the-line's going to move more? I think, yes, I think people are going to continue to place money on John Jones. I'm going to guess, like, by the time we're kicking things off,

like for the main card like John Jones is gonna be sitting around like a minus 175 minus 180 like he's it just feels like a a casual like not that into the sport thing to throw money on John Jones dude he's 26 and one like this guy this guy's 11 and one like come on man he's when is the next time we're going to be able to play John Jones at this price I I that's why I haven't played zero yet uh but I like that decision shot I like that decision. The decision feels like the only way I am comfortable betting this. All right.

So there it is. The main event, none of us have a ton of confidence in either side. We feel like it's going to go longer. I will say this. I'm way more excited about this fight now. And like I had a general enthusiasm anyway, but like I'm I'm super intrigued.

I have no idea what's going to happen. And I'm geared up. Like, let's go. this is how you should feel before a fight card. It's one of those fights, man, where you hear so much about it, you see so much about it, you watch it so much.

And like, sometimes this happens in other sports, but there's not as much time to build it up. This, you're sitting on it for a month, a month and a half, and you're just thinking about it. And that's all you're hearing about is John Jones, zero gone, John John, zero gone.

Who's going to win? We return to John Joe's. It's one of those fights. By the time they're in the octagon and like the round starts, maybe I'm the only one that experiences it, that it's just like, Wow, here we go. We're here. I can't believe we're watching this. Like, we're about to find out what is going to happen.

Like, you finally get all those questions answered. And to me, that's like the peak of the sport where it's just like, oh my gosh, this is, this is incredible. This is, this is theater here. Yeah, I cannot wait for it. I'm stoked, dude. Marshall's buyers travel far and wide, hustling for great deals on amazing gifts. So you don't have to. They've bagged this season's Italian leather handbags. Designer. Hand-picked the finest sweaters from the rest. Ooh, cashmere. Landed makeup palettes from the brands you love. Rushes too. And hustled all those wishless topping toys.

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Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. Fully on board and for as little confidence as I have in the outcome of this main event, I feel the exact opposite about the co-made event. I couldn't be more confident about anything. The sun is going to come up tomorrow and Valentina Shibchenko is going to beat that ass because those two things are death and taxes, baby.

I'm having flashbacks to our UFC 275 preview when Valentina Shepchenko fought Tyler Sanchez. Sure did. Split decision victory. Let's get to the co-main event, though. Flyway Championship of the World Valentina Shepchenko taking on Alexa Grasso. Right now, you can have Valentina Shepchenko minus 675 Alexa Grasso coming back plus 500. I mean, you just said it, Jed. Sun comes up tomorrow, Valentina Shavchenko, and still, I'm not that confident.

I'm not as confident as you are. But I do think Valentina Shepchenko wins this fight. I just am not sure that Alexa Grasso can match the physicality of Valentina Shepchanko. Like, who did Viviana Rujo, that last fight? We obviously broke that down on this podcast, Jed, and then we talked about it afterward. That was one of those fights just from like two minutes in. You were like, oh, yeah, all right, this is going to a decision. This is just going to be kind of a snoozer.

Like, Alexa Grasso is just going to outpoint her over 25 minutes. that's not really what you do when you fight Valentina Shevchenko. She doesn't allow you to fight like that. And I mean, I want to say like this isn't Joanne Wood, but Tyler Santos was coming off a Joanne Woodwin to get to Shevchenko. But like, this is not, this is not Joe Ann Wood. This is Valentina Shevchenko. I think maybe it's just because I'm a chefchenco Stan. I'm a Shevchenko sim. But yeah, I think this is one of those like, y'all must have forgot moments. It's like I think she's back in a big way here. Yeah, full agree. I mean, we all know I've been driving the Chevy truck since just about day one. At least with Tyler Santos, you could sculpt a path to victory, even if I just didn't believe it at all. I genuinely struggle to find a way barring, you know, freak injury for Grasso to do anything effectively. She's a combination volume boxing.

that doesn't really have power. Like, that's, if you were asking me to pick a fighter who's tailor made for Valentina Shivchenko to beat, it's like her or Jessica I. There's just, the tools simply are not there. And that's not even taking into account. Like, Tatiana Suarez just ran over Alex Gross. I was several, several years ago. But that, that, the physicality is just a world of difference here.

I'm fully on board with this being a almost-a-for-God moment. I'm taking Schiuchenko inside the distance. It's only minus 150. I think she's going to come out and make a statement. And then I got to do it. I don't learn lessons. Connor, we were talking about this.

We talked about this in last week's episode. Having a little bit of trouble getting into the black this year. Just can't two steps forward, three steps back, you know. What's a better way to suddenly just turn everything green than to put all of the money that I have onto Valentina Shifchenko. And that's what I'll be doing once I've made all the rest of my bets here. The rest of the bankroll. We're doing it again.

All in on the bullet train. Let's go. Straight. Chif Chango straight. Yeah. She's only minus 675. She should be minus 1,000 at least. Like that's actually probably the best value on the whole card.

She should be minus a grand. But Booneicoe minus 2,000 is pretty good value. I mean, it's not bad value, Frank. I'm parlaying up, Chef Chanko. I mean, that's just what I'm here to do. I am a chalk donkey and I'm proud of it. A lot of opportunities to chalk donkey. Shorter price tag, but over one and a half main event took the over one and a half here.

I mean, obviously, if someone's going to get a finish, I think it's going to be Chefchenko. But if you look at her fights, 13 over 14 UFC fights have gone over the one and a half. She's not really that like blitz you type finisher. I think Grosso will survive the seven and a half minutes, eight of her 10 UFC fights, you know, have gone over the one and a half. And if this was minus 550, I probably wouldn't be playing it, but at minus 250, I'm willing to parlay that up. Okay. Ricky, how do you, how do you feel? You were not in long a lot.

I feel like you can't possibly be on Grasso train right now. I am not a huge Valentina Shevchenko fan. on that train, but I agree with literally every single point you made. Stylistically, if you had to pick a matchup for Valentina Shevchenko to look good in to style, this is the one. The only thing I would wonder is if she can finish her. Alexa Grasso is tough and I think is not going to get a lot of credit as as as good a fighter she is.

But she is completely outgunned and the style matchup is just the absolute worst possible one for her. I don't see a path to victory like I would with Tyler Santos or Aaron Blanchefield or Tatiana Suarez. Like there is a path there. Am I going to pick them against Val? I need a little more time to think about it. But Alexa Grasso, in my opinion, just doesn't have that style that's going to allow her opportunities here. Everything she does, Val does better and is just stronger and more physical.

It's rough. Man, I, Connor, I'm really feeling this over one and a half parley piece. At only minus 250, that is... I'm not going to lie, man. I, yeah, I threw two and a half units on main event and co-main, both going over one and a half. Honestly, that just being by itself at minus 255 is not... God, there was one book.

I can't remember what that had it. Obviously, it wasn't available to me, but they had it at minus 205. I was... I think I'm going to join you on that, which means I have way too much money on this fight. Nice about it. I mean, 21 of their 24 UFC fights have gone over the one and a half.

Like, and you just said it, Rick. I mean, Alexa Grasso is tough. Stuff. And Sheffchenko is not that like, you know, flash knockout. And she's not just going to put you out. It feels like she works on you on you over the round. So I think Shevchenko wins. I think she does it pretty dominantly.

I'm going to say a later rounds finish. What's a, what Chevy looking like on the point spray? I was just about to say. I didn't even look at that, but that's a good thought. She's one that you can play points all day. Yeah. He definitely points. on this woman.

Give me something here. This is a lot of radio listeners. Valentina Shepchenko minus 5.5. 5. Minus 450. Yeah. Not great. Dude, that's incredible

given only a minus 675. So they are functionally saying this woman is going to win this way. She's going to win dominantly. There's not a real big room for her to eke one out there. Yeah. Either she gets the finish where she or she wins pretty, pretty handily on the scorecards. All right. We're all in alignment there.

Feel like we're probably going to be in alignment on this next one. But, you know, hopefully we get some dissension as we go on. Next up, middleweight out, welterweight out. I'm sorry, Jeff Neal taking on Shavkat Rockmanov right now. You can have Shavkat 4 minus 490. Jeff Neal coming back plus 390. Yeah, I mean, Shavcott is just one of those guys. Like, he's just sort of like the, the mythical creature for the time being. Like, he's not putting up, you know, Jelton, Hamzat stats, but like, he is dominating. He is, he is not really struggling.

He is not facing a ton of resistance when he gets in here. 16-0. The second round once. Like, once. 16-0, 16 finishes. How do you want it? Eight KOs, eight subs. The man tries to keep it even.

He tries to feed everyone on this. Equal opportunity ass kicker. Yeah, man. I just like I see what some people are saying like you know sort of the the brain goes to to Hamzad Gilbert burns you know you make that big jump up you you struggle more um you know it's kind of like a welcome to the to the big dogs here I just don't know man like I just don't know like I feel like Shavkatz just just kind of do what he does man I mean he's he just looks so dominant it's hard to find a hole in his game like maybe if his chin gets tested

by Jeff Neal, maybe if he wobbles him. But I went back and watched the Jeff Neal-Neal-Magni fight. And, I mean, in that second and third round, Neil was able to get him to the ground. He didn't hold him there by any means, but like he did have success getting him to the mat. And if Shotcott's able to do that, like that might spell the end. Like, Shavkat is not going to let you get up. Shavkat is going to make you pay for getting to the mat. And he's patient, so talented. I mean, I just, yeah, I mean, Shavkat is the pick. What do you want me to say? I parlayed Shavcott up.

Shavkat, and I took the under two and a half. I mean, they gave it to me at 165. I had to play that. I want to hear what Ricky says on this before I, for I jump into my bit. Yeah, I mean, I can't divert much from that. I'm a big believer in the skills of Shavkat. I think Jeff Neal is a good benchmark for him. I think Jeff Neal is a good litmus test for him.

But ultimately, I think Shavkawk. inside the distance is probably a pretty, a pretty safe outcome. I am happy you guys said this because I already took a bet, but I'm going to be honest, be transparent. You know, I like to give it to you guys straight.

I took shop. Didn't you bet on Neil Magny against Shafcott? I did because it was very, very large number. I, and I thought Neil Magne could, you know, be Neil Magne and he super wasn't.

I have bet on Shafkat Rakhmanov. I've parlayed him with Valentina Shivchenko. Shavkat and Shavchanko for the shmoney parlay. It's minus 250. And I don't feel bad about it. Don't feel bad about it. These are your bets, Jed.

These are your bets. The problem is I did this prior to watching tape. And then I went and watched tape. Oh. And I am not picking Jeff Neal to win. I think these odds are probably a little long, though. Because I agree the Neal-Magni-Jephneel fight is the concern how that went out. But if you go back and watch Jeff Neal fight Belaw Muhammad,

who's frankly a better takedown artist and scores takedowns more in the way we've seen from Shafkat realistically, uh, Balal got nowhere doing that against Jeff Neal. I mean nowhere. Jeff Neal is really good at not accepting positions, even if you can get your hands on him, but he's very good at not allowing you to complete the takedown and then just accepting it. trying to work a different chain. I think Jeff Neal's probably a cleaner boxer than Shavkot, though Shopkot is not a sitting duck on the feet by any means. And I think this fight, you said it, Connor, after I watched the tape,

really feels like there's some opportunity for this to be Hamzok Gilbert Burns, which again, Hamzot won, and I still think Shavkot probably does win because he can have a little more success with the grappling if it goes to round three and he can hold his own on the feet. But I don't feel great about the price I have parleyed Schaft caught out at this moment in time. Still picking him to win, this fight just has a lot more danger in it than I sort of offhandedly gave it credit for at the time. Yeah, I mean, what you said, like, Jeff Neal does have an 85% takedown defense.

Like, there is a world where, like, this is that step up via Hamzai Gilbert Burns. And it's like, oh, Schaft can't get the takedowns. Like, how does he react? Can he stand in trade with Jeff Neal? I am going to go on the theory that, uh, that A, he will be able to, to hold his own on the feet and, and be that he will be able to get the takedowns. I like, this is kind of a shop cut at this point, similar to like a Hamzat, similar to a Jelton is, uh, is like a prove me wrong in believing too much in you.

Mm-hmm. And that's, that's ultimately why I don't feel like super bad about it. But I will also say, much like I said for the main event, I'm way more excited about this fight than I was after I dug into it because I was excited to watch Shafcott work. I thought they should have just had him fight whoever in that January card, I think this was originally set for. Like, Jeff Neal falls out, just get anybody else in there. It doesn't matter. Let this man do business. But I think this is a really good litmus test for him because Jeff Neal is going to test him away as we haven't seen.

And if he keeps doing what he's done before, you know, answering just ace and all the tests, then okay, well, let's just get him into a title fight real soon. But I'm way more excited about this fight. I think Jeff Neal has a shot in it. I'm still going to pick Schafton. Jeff Nis is a schmany palet. He's also so young. I think of him as like he's 32. I think of him as like back end of his 30s because he's been around for a long time.

He's also got that uncle beard and haircut going. That fools you. True. That was very true. I mean, he's just thought. I was on Jeff Neal plus 500 by decision against Vicente Lucke, and when he just melted him down in the third, I was like, oh, sick. I was sick. I thought I was going to cash that ticket. He looked fantastic in that fight. And I'm with you, dude. I'm as excited for this as I was for Hamzaat Gilbert Burns.

Like, it's a fantastic fight and it's a huge litmus test for Shafka. This fight card. Oh, dude, this fight card, man. I mean, it's a banger. and let's keep it rolling right along. We're still on the main card. Lightweight bout. My favorite fight of the whole event. I don't care. My favorite fight of the whole event. Matush Gamrot taking on my man, the tarantula, Jalen Turner, getting back in the octagon. Five straight finishes. Five straight wins, obviously. Right now, you can get Matush Gamron for minus 225. Jalen Turner coming back at plus 190 and let me just tell you, boys, what you just said,

you did with Shavkat Rakmanov, placing a bet before watching a ton of tape. I did the same. Jalen Turner. Jalen Turner is on a short list of guys that I just blind bet. Just had to cross one off last week of Andre Muniz. You know, once they lose, I start, you know, a little more cautious. Oh, he's off the list. Trust me. He's off the list. Yeah, and I mean, like, once you lose, you're off the list. I proceed with much more caution. And yeah, I just have to say I kind of botched this one. I took Jalen Turner plus 165, which is now gone for the worse. It looks like you're going to probably be able to get him around plus 200 by the time the fight rolls around. And yeah, I mean, just after watching the tape, you know, it's like the office meme of, you know, Michael Scott.

And he's like, oh, it's just like the oh shit face. Yeah, I mean, Gamrod is like sick. Like Gamrod's like super sick at grappling. Well, don't feel bad. You got this. Listen, dude, it's my guy. It's Jaylen Turner. I'm right until the wheels fall off.

You know, there was an option for me to cash this bet out. I said, no, not going to do that. You know, everyone who's listening and be like, cash it out and then bet the better price, it wouldn't really make a difference because the cash out. Is that a lower number? Yeah, I mean. I don't know if you people know this. Yeah, the book is pretty smart.

Casinos and books don't just give money back. Yeah, they're pretty smart. That's not a good business for it. Number wise, I didn't really get a good bet. All right, two ways this fight goes, right? I mean, Gamrod just has success with the grappling throughout and is just, just kind of, just kind of grinds on, on Jalen Turner, maybe you can get to finish. I feel like if Gamrod wins, it's going to sort of be one-way traffic. Or Jalen Turner stuff's the take down. Here's what I'm going to do, just a numbers guy. Let's just say I didn't even watch the tape, just tunnel vision. I got the horse blinders on. Jailant Turner 77% takedown defense. But Touche Gamrod,

31% take down accuracy. I mean, that's all the numbers I need right there. I respect it. Look, you said that there are two ways this FICO's, and that's just not true. There's one way this FICO's. Oh, oh. And it's Jalen Tarner's going to get that dub, baby.

I love you back in it. I love you back in it. This is one that could go self. great about it. I feel great about it. I don't. This is just, I'm just going to have that, I'm just going to have to have that belief when we get in there. Listen, once I see Jalen Turner make the walk and then he does the side to side walking and I see the, I see the spider web shaved in the hair. I see him flex and I see how much bigger he is than Gamrod. I'm going to be like, what's the biggest man alive? Worried about. What was I even worried about? Nothing. You should have

been worried about nothing. Look, here are a couple of things that make me feel exceedingly confident about this fight. One. Exceedingly. This is not a bit. You really feel exceedingly. I like, I love Jalen Turner. I think he's a future champion.

I wrote that actually on MMAFighting.com, great website today. We're talking about the best prospect. In his dark room. Yeah. He's looking. He's waiting some type of way. You say you're. I need to hear.

I need to hear why. I need the explanation. That's fine. I'm happy to give it to you. So just off the bat, the physical gifts. astonishing, just outlandish that this man is a lightweight. And look, I'm not here to tell you, Matush Gamrott's a small man, he's super not. Fair to say John Jones-esque? Yes, honestly, very much that sort of level of physical disparity between his opposition. Matouge Gamrot

is not a small lightweight, but we do just should consider he did spend a good amount of time at featherweight as well, was the former KSW featherweight champion. This is a is probably his more natural weight class realistically, but he's giving up real size in this fight. The fight that I take the most confidence from, and this is going to sound incredibly weird because it's a loss for Jalen Turner. It's the Matt Frivolta.

The most recent loss. I'm shocked. Matt Frivola is basically like a dime store version of Matush Gamrot. Interesting day. This is an interesting day. He's the most watered down Matush Gamrodot. possible, whereas he's got, he is going to put a wrestling pace on you infinitely. Okay.

So Matt Fervola is the most watered down version of Matush Gamrot. Watered down Matush Gamrot beat Jalen Turner, which leads you to have an astounding amount of confidence that Jalen Turner is going to be able to beat full-bodied Matush Gamrott. Exactly, because two things. One, I was at that fight. That fight happened in our lovely city of Atlanta, Georgia. and very quick shout out to those two men,

because that fight could have won fight of the night on many fight cards. Unfortunately, UFC 236 happened to have literally the two best fights of 2019 on it, in Israel, Disinier v. Kelvin Gasolum, and Max Holloway, Dustin, Porri, too. So I was watching this fight, and I was like, how did this fight not win something, some sort of war? Oh, it was on 236. Got it. Well, it sucks to be all.

I'm taking confidence in this fight because he lost, but he looked competitive, and he was 23 years old. He was a baby, just a child even. He was 23 years old. And since then, what has he done? Demolished everybody. This is a guy who got to the big leagues, lost to Vicente Lucchia at well to wait, not the way class he competes at. Oh, by the way, Fizente Luque at the time was like a top seven welterweight. No shame there.

Then loses to Mount Frivola in a competitive fight at his weight class and realizes I'm 23. I have the skills. Got to go back. I got to work on some things. Put some things together. And we have seen the fruits of that labor. He is prepared for this fight. I think Gamrock can have success with chain wrestling.

On the feet, he's going to have to wait through a mindful. field to get to him to get that chain wrestling going. And we've seen Jalen Turner fight through those, fight through and out of bad positions. And Matush Gamrot is not the best control grappler. He's a very good scrambler and an offensive scrambling and an attacking scrambler. But as far as getting to a dominant position and locking it down and holding it, he hasn't really thrived in that much. I just think that this is a great fight for Jalen Turner to ascend, to arrive.

I love Matush Gamrod. I was happy for him to be here. I wanted him to kind of make his way into a title fight, but lightweight's just impossible to do it. I think Jalen Turner is the future, and I think the future is right now, and we're about to see it on Saturday. I feel similarly about your overall sentiments about Jalen Turner.

I truly believe, you know, I'm a fan of John Jones. I'm a fan of Jalen Turner for the same reason. I think he poses a lot of offensive problems for a lot of guys. is it fair to say that you're betting on the ceiling here, like the potential and the growth of Jill and Turner? A thousand percent. When I look at this, I'm betting on the ceiling. When I look at the recent fights, I have to say, like, it feels like gamrott for me.

It really does. Like, I'm looking at this, and I can't not pick, I can't shake the idea that gamrots going to just gamrot them. But yeah. Would you make that a verb just to gamrot someone? I mean, it's every fight. He just gamrots them. To exhaust them with grappling.

Yes. And then. then finish them potentially. But I could also see a world where Jalen Turner makes that leap. I just don't, I don't think it's assured, you know? I'm not willing to stick the neck out there in the same way you are. I favor Gamrod here.

But it feels like the type of line where it's kind of like priced right and I don't really love either side. I'm kind of out on both. But I like, I slightly like Gamrod more. But I would not be surprised to that point if Jalen Turner comes in and puts on a show. If Jalen Turner makes a leap in front of us and just shows us that he's the guy.

Y'all are going to see me act out if Jalen Turner, if Jalen Turner wins, especially if it's by finish. All of his wins are by finish. I mean, here's one argument. I love the confidence from you, Jed, because if it works out, it's going to look that much cooler that we were riding with our guy. Secondly, I do have to say, laying minus 225 on a short notice, Mattis Gamron. I would never back Gamrod at this price.

There's a lot, too, I mean, obviously, because the price is moving so much. I mean, I got a bad line on, on Jalen Turner. I mean, there's obviously a ton of people that are investing their money in him. Yeah, minus 225 on Gamron on short notice against a guy that, yeah, maybe he does have some deficiencies in his defensive grappling. But, like, he is still incredibly lethal. Like, I mean, five wins, all five by finish. I mean, that Brad Riddell bet, we were both on that, Jed, at like, even money. That's the easiest bet.

That's still, I think I said it in our show. He tagged him instantaneously and then tapped him. easiest bet I've ever made. I was like, all right, here we go. This should be a banger. And then I was like, oh, sweet, I won the bet. Nice. All right.

Jaylen Turner's sick. I will also say this. I don't think that this is likely, but it does factor in at least. I wanted to at least be mentioned. The part that people don't talk about that often when you're talking about somebody who's incredibly long like Jalen Turner is, it's always focused on the jab and the striking. Long arms make shooting and wrestling impossible. possibly dangerous. Chokes can fly out of nowhere and then the leverage on them, I mean,

referenced it earlier. John Jones just dropping Leota Machita like an actual sack of potatoes when he chokes him unconscious from a guillotine, unlikely that happens, but it would not shock me if Gamrod is still just chain wrestling, chain wrestling, chain wrestling, gets a little lazy or little sloppy and somehow a power guillotine slips in there, like, could totally see that happening. And Jalen Turner is so slick with some of those submissions. The leverage points to your point that he's able to lock up. If he gets in the clinch, we could see that similar kind of John Jones style like he did against Glover.

So yeah, I buy, I buy him in the future. How are you not on him? I buy him 100% as a future prospect. 100%. I'm all in on that. But I just, it might be this, he might be taking this fight, one fight, two fights to her. is my potential read on this. Yeah, I mean, if Cameron comes in here,

has immense success in the grappling and gets it done, I'm not going to be shocked, but like similar to the main event, man, I enjoy watching Jalen Turner fight. I would love to see him ascend to a championship level. So I'm cheering for him. You're not coming here. I love that you're doing a lot of heart bets.

I mean, dude, don't come, don't come to me and tell me about doing math equations and telling me about being a sharp better for a card like this. I'm just going to have some fun. I'm just looking to have some fun. I'm trying to support my guys. Because if I don't have a bet on Jalen Turner and he locks up a guillotine in round one

and he's going crazy and I'm just like, oh yeah, you know, hands in my pockets. That was cool. I'm happy for Jalen. Like I didn't even support my guy. Like, oh, what is this? I'm a fraud at that point. I mean, that's just what it is.

This main card, now that we're talking through it, like after doing, after looking at it and then going through the tape study, I was like, man, I cannot wait for this main card on Saturday. And then now that we're talking through it, like it's almost like every time I look back at the main card it gets more attractive to me like it just gets prettier and prettier like there is such a high level of intrigue for all five of these fights for me like I like all five of them let's finish it off let's let's go to the last card of the main

this is the best fight main card since 280 and maybe even long further back because two 80 also 280 also had Caitlin chukagian in the main card and that that brings you down like let's just be real that brings you down. Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's it. The last fight on the main card, it's a middleweight bout. Jamie Pickett taking on Boe Nickel right now. Get in before it moves too much.

Right now you can get Bo Neckle for minus 1,500. I bet it's going to close it like minus 3,000. Jamie Pickett coming back at plus 900. Like, I mean, just, I mean, what is there to say for me? What is there to say for me? Like, hey, like, how can you? It's actually the easiest breakdown on this whole card. How can you reasonably go against Bo Nickel?

Unless you're literally just saying, I'm playing the banana peel at plus a thousand. Like, there's that. There's only one way. There's only one way. Yes. If you're that guy who's going to bet against Bo Neckle every single time until he loses,

hoping for that one cash out, that's the only play. Because if you're starting now, you're too late and you didn't get to capitalize. But, yeah, there's nothing here. I mean, it's just like, dude, like I'll disagree. Contender series fights, yes, contender series fights.

But like we're talking, there was no resistance. There was a walk. Did you look at the stats? But Nichols has the funniest USC stats of all time. It's absolutely ridiculous. 26.68 takedowns per 15 minutes. His average fight time is 57 seconds. It's the funniest shit in the world.

Those were, those were like grown men, like with dreams and like goals. to like make it in the fight game like on the contender series like there were interviews where they were like I'm going to be the guy to upset bone nickel and like also they're not like throwing him into the deep end and they're just like run with the wolves brother bo nickel versus Robert Whitaker first time out like he is getting a very winnable fight in Jamie Pickett like he's three and six in the UFC the disrespect of the night wolf come on man come on man he was finished he's been finished in the first round three times I'm not trying to disrespect them, but in terms of going against Bone Nickel.

Yeah, no. I will say, I'm obviously not going against Boe Nickel here. I'm going to bet Boe Nickel by submission. Hey, me too. Minus 120. Yeah, minus 120. The price is unbelievable for everything else,

but I mean, I think he's round one is like minus 250. Yeah, it's all just real dumb. Buy sub seems like by far the best bet if you're making something here. I will say, I actively would say don't put Bo Nickel in Parles, don't be that guy. You're gaining pennies on the dollar. And I do think that there is a realistic argument, at least, to just saying,

Jamie Pickett is a step up in competition, and we have seen plenty of A-plus world-class prospects falter for one reason or another. and it's nothing's guaranteed and this price is too high to be putting in parley's i wouldn't say bad jamie picket i'm just saying at this price you need to find a prop that you want to get on and not just put him as the the last leg of something because let me tell you if you hit a big if you've got a six leg palay and bow nickel is somehow the one that blows it that'll be a bad beat that you carry for the rest of your life you're describing me right now yeah i did a little six legger and i just No props available. You gained nothing.

You gained like $10. Yeah, sweet. Free lunch on Monday. Free lunch on Monday. Shout out to BN. It is on the dollar gained. Can I ask one thing? Yeah.

Are we sure it's a step up? I mean, I think so. Like, I mean, the guys he fought on Contender Series seem like Jamie Pickett, if I'm being honest. I think it's like at least, I mean, okay, maybe the competition isn't a step up. I still would say that it probably is in general, but you're also getting a different experience. This isn't the contender series.

It's the main card opener and a UFC. Granted, he has a ton of big, big experience. But it is different. Like, there is a very different aspect to what he is about to do. Sure. And it's all just a little bit different. He's as well prepared as someone in his position could ever possibly be. That's my argument.

Is that, like, yes, there's always those A plus problems. prospects, the blue chip prospects that do falter. Like, it happens. But there is just something about, you know, and obviously we're going to learn about his skills as we go on. We're going to see him get tested in the striking. Like, when you talk about consummate professionalism outside of the octagon, like it just feels like this kid has been prepared in every aspect of the game. Like, the way that he holds interviews, the way that he carries himself, the way that he's talking about this fight. You know, he talks about Jamie Pickett with a sense of respect. And he's like, I'm going to go out there. I'm going to try and finish the fight

in the first round. And if that doesn't happen, I'm going to go out in the second round and do the same. And then the third round. And if that's, if I don't finish him, then I hope to win by, you know, unanimous decision. Like, I don't know. The way he carries himself, it feels like he's not going to let the moment get to him. It feels like, I just, I feel like going to make a question. I definitely I only don't think any of that's going to happen, but until it does, until we actually see it, you have to at least have some respect that it could, that anything could happen here. You're right. You're right.

Maybe he decides today's the day he's going to try to strike for the first time instead of just shooting a double and pretzling some dude up. What if Bo Neckle is the greatest fighter on earth with the worst chin in history? And like he just gets tough. He just gets to be Jonathan Goulet. There have been dudes like that. were just like all the town in the world just can't take it and they just can't it's we haven't seen so much from him i would strongly caution against laying minus 1500 strictly listen i got some good i got a good line i got minus 1400 thanks oh okay well i beat the i didn't know i thought that's

that's that's demarcating line i was feeling good uh you know i threw in threw in some ridiculous parlase tautiana swars was in there we've already greened that one out uh With Instacard, you get groceries that over-deliver so you can over-share your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy.

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We were just talking about having chins and not. So we get to the featured pre-lin of the night, a bantamway bow. Cody Garbrand taking on Trevin Jones. Right now you can get Cody Garbrand for minus 175. Trevin Jones coming back at plus 150. I am personally not going to trust Cody Garbrand in this situation. I'm not going to bet on Trevin Jones

because I think Cody Garbrin is the much better fighter. But, man, is... Theoretically. theoretically like skill for skill i would think he's the better fighter but like man these last few fights he's he's had a hard time not getting knocked out yeah ricky rickie tell me why i shouldn't bet cody garbrand yeah i gotta be honest i'm i'm leaning toward cody so i'm not sure i could be the one to convince you my thought connor and you mentioned this earlier i'm not bet i don't have a bet down, but I do have him kind of circled of like, it's the same thing.

We're like, oh, we could get John Jones at minus 175. I could get Cody Garbrandt, a former Bannamway champion against Trevin Jones at minus 170. Like, it's, I recognize that there's, it's fraught with danger because Cody Garbrandt does not appear to be able to take almost any return fire at this point of his career. But. Rob Funt. He hung in there. Well, that is actually part of it, too.

I was like, you're doing okay against Rob Faw? I was about to say the font fight, yep. The fight that I'm looking at more is not on his side. It's Javid Bacherat just like dummied Trevin Jones. And Cody Garbrand is as skilled and able as Javid Bosharat. And they don't fight entirely the same way, but they do have a lot of the same trait. And it's just like, why, if Javid Bashat just straight to dummy this dude, why is Cody Garbrandt a more accomplished fighter, not a bigger favorite?

This feels like a line with value on Garbrandt, and I haven't bet it largely because I feel like I'm too, I feel too good about Garbrand's chances. No, let me help you. I feel exactly the same way. I feel like this align already accounts for the Cody Chin tax and still has value. I like the minus 165 here. Yeah. Plus Trevin Jones coming in also in short notice too.

It's just like, I, it wouldn't shock me. I don't want to bet my house on it because it wouldn't shock me if Trevin Jones just threw a left hook and Cody Garbrant crumbled. But I don't like, Cody Garberin has had a bad run undoubtedly, but y'all remember when he nuked a feel of sunset? Like, that was cool. So he still got that in him. Oh, yeah. He's an exciting fighter too. You say he's had a bad run and he has, but look at the names he's had a bad run against.

Very general. Look at the names Trevin Jones has had a bad run against. Yeah. They ate the same names. If you all are looking at the tapology right now, let me tell you, they are not the same names. I mean, seriously, though, like, yeah, it's Javi Boshrod, Heone Barsolos. And I love Johnny Boshra. Who's out of the UFC now.

Though, if you want to say it's still in there, like, Trevin Jones did have some nice finishes against Mara Batista and Timor if I leave, I know that isn't, you know. Yeah. But still, like, he does have power. So, like, if he does catch Cody. And he throws a good counter left hand, which is the punch that has historically given Cody problems.

I mean, I'm with y'all, though. I think Cody wins. And, like, if he's out there performing, like, if he's really fighting well, like, I feel like he probably makes it look fairly easy. I know Trevin Jones that's been knocked out, like, one time in his career. But, like, I wouldn't put it past Cody,

knocking him out. Yeah, I think that's that and that's it. It's like I said. I think this is where I would look back on Sundan, I could have got Cody Garbrandt against Trevin Jones. This is the thing I ask for all the time. I ask for the UFC to give their stars who have fallen on hard times a big step back. I know Trevin Jones was not the original opponent,

but this is that. This is an opportunity for Garbrandt to build confidence. The Ronnie Yaya setup was just like artistic. It was beautiful. It was just like beautiful by the UFC. Find the one guy who's never caowed anyone in his entire career. Yeah, it was a plus. Plus, if I root for Cody Garbrandt to win this fight,

which I'm fundamentally opposed to in general. I'm not a big fan of Cody Garbrand. I don't want to root for him. But if I root for him to win this fight, then he will have a win. And you know what him having a win will make him an opportune opponent for moving forward? That's right. The fight I've wanted for years. him versus Davidson Figurato and Figgi Small's Bantamweight debut.

Just two dudes chucking him until Cody Garbrandt falls down is how that fight will go. I'm booking it. Cody Garbrandt, let's go, minus 175 or whatever it is right now. I support us. Trevin Jones never been knocked out, but what I did do in this fight, I did take the under. I just have a hard time not playing the under in Cody Garbrandt fights. Eight of his last 10 have gone under the two and a half. we'll see if it works out for me.

I think the two that didn't were both five rounders, right? Which is interesting. This isn't a five rounder. So I think what I'm hoping for is that Cody Garbrant is still Cody Garbrant, and this is a huge step-down in competition, and he just blasts Trevin Jones. Could be. All right.

That would be great. I hope that's true. Let's keep it rolling. Let's hop in the hyperdrive here as we are an hour 15 in, still working through these prelims. Next up, a middleweight ball. I think we have stuff to talk about on almost every fight, too. So we still got some work ahead of us.

My guy, DDP, back in the building, taking on Derek Brunson. Right now, you can get Drix Duplasi from minus to 30. Derek Brunson coming back at plus 195. Yeah, I mean, if you've been listening to the show, I think we've been on the air for every single one of DDP's UFC fights. Maybe not. But, yeah, there was one that we missed. But yeah, I mean, I'm pretty much just going to back DDP in every fight. He's not the most technical fighter.

He's probably going to lose eventually. But I think this is a spot where he's likely going to win. I mean, Derek Brunson, 39 years old, he's coming out talking about two fights, no matter what happens. He's going to retire after that. And like the way that I see it is just like the chaos that DDP brings to the fights. I just feel like Derek Brunson, like his path is obviously wrestling and holding Trieke's duplice down.

I just think in the striking, he's going to cause problems for Brunson. And I'm not convinced that Brunson's going to be able to hold down this, this explosive, massive dude for 15 minutes. Don't totally disagree. I can't lay the price on either man in this fight. I think the line's pretty good, mainly because DDP is not like the best defensive wrestler,

and Brunson obviously can make hay there, but DDP is going to keep putting it on you, and Brunson, a bit of a tendency to fade when he's facing real resistance. Six of his last seven losses by K.O., too. My, I didn't know. I kind of just wanted to bet it. And I was really surprised that the over-under is set at one and a half. I thought it would be two and a half, frankly.

And I'm taking the over. I think that we're going to get later on in this fight. I mean, Derek Brunson has certainly has failings, but the last time he was finished, before seven and a half minutes was is there all this in your fight? God love DDP. He's not doing the same stuff as he is in this fight. So I, yeah, I'm going on that.

I don't feel like amazingly confident about it, but it's the only action I have. Yeah, I thought about taking fight doesn't go to a decision, but like you just said, I am paying a pretty big price tag to rock with my guy, DDP, so I don't want to get double exposed

in like the upside for DDP is that he is likely, going to be the one getting the finish. Like there's a very real world where Derek Brunson is able to find that success wrestling. Then I'm paying the price tag on him. Yeah. Then I'm paying the price tag. A fight doesn't go and the price tag on DDP.

Now I'm looking at a double loser and it feels like a quadruple loser because the price tags I'm paying. You know, I'm trying to get that that foresight going here and not screw myself. So yeah, I'm just going to ride with DDP and hope that he keeps it going. And I mean, this would be nice for him. these are two guys that even if I don't know the number of the line the line could be anything I'm not really comfortable laying money on either of these two guys in any fight um so this is a hard pass for me I do not blame you there were some scary moments against uh against our man Darren till last time out all right let's keep it rolling next up women's flyweight bout it is vivian

a rujo taking on a man to he bus right now and you can just flip your coin and you can either get Hivas at minus 120 or Viviana Rujo at plus 100. I have nothing on this fight. I think it's going to be a pretty fun fight, but in terms of having competence betting, I don't really have anything here. So Jed, if you've got something, please tell me now. Oh, I've got something for you, buddy. You're going to want to hop on board with this one.

Oh, yeah. Look, this is a great fight. I think the line's pretty close to right. I'll be honest. I'm taking a man to Hibus, but I'm taking her in large part just because I like her better than arroo i think what she's shown in the cage is a more dynamic fighter than a rujo ruzzo's rock solid uh and this fight will probably be close but i'm not taking amanda he he bus at minus 120 because that's a mug bet it's full bet it's an idiot bet when you can get a man

to he bus by decision plus 175 uh i think she's going to win this fight it's certainly a very close fight uh though over under what's what's that line at connor it was it was healthy sheesh two and a half at like minus 325. Exactly. This fight is going to the cards, functionally, is what they're telling you. There's a reason. Arruzer's been stopped once in her career. It was on the regional scene.

She is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, a very rock-solid grappler. I think he bus is a slightly better grappler. We've seen her in there and beating better grapplers like McKinsey Dern vina-genjiroba, but not like a huge finisher, particularly against people who can, can fight back on the ground. Neither of these women are going to knock each other out on the feet. In the grappling exchanges, I expect Hebas to get ahead.

I'm getting plus 175 on her to win by decision, and I feel like there's value there. So pretty straightforward and simple for me. She's younger. I think she's slightly better, and I can get the value on her. Taking her. Yeah, I have nothing to say there.

I have nothing to say there. I mean, I'm not going to lie. I was looking for something, to parlay like a bow nickel inside the distance or like that fight doesn't go to a decision. Get to over one and a half on this fight whenever that drops. Yeah. Take the alternate fight line. I mean, it'll be minus 600. I'm cool with that, man. You think I'm afraid to play minus 600? You think I'm afraid to play a minus 600? Because I'll do it. I swear to God I'll do it.

The pacifist parlay this week. Hey, yes, yes. Yes, let's go. Well, half pass is half. violence. All right, let's keep it moving. Still got a few fights. We got to get into next up. It is a middleweight bowed Julian Marquez taking on Mark Andre Barrio. Right now, you can have MAB for minus 150. Julian Marquez coming back at plus 130. Yeah, I like it neither is, is this the lowest level fight on the card? Uh, no. I mean, it depends. It's good. It might be the ugliest in some ways. Yeah, maybe just the ugliest. Maybe just the ugliest.

Both dudes are like probably top 25-ish, top 35-ish middleweights, and that can't be said for some of the prelims. That's true. That's true. Yeah, I mean, Julian Marcus... But it's ugly. It's going to be ugly. It's going to be ugly.

It's going to be ugly. It might be fun ugly. Yeah, Marquez is a dangerous dude. Nine wins all by finish. It's his lack of defense. His defensive striking is not. He's not interested in it. He's not interested in it.

He's not interested in it. And that could cost me here backing MAB, especially the way that he just got iced, just like put out against Cheaty. And like Julian Marquez does have that ability. Marquez also has a slick little ground game as well, but I'm not convinced this is going to go to the ground. I think these two dudes are going to strike.

And the way that I see it is MAB is who I actually think is tough. Like yes, he got just put to the moon, but he just got caught by Cheedy. I think he's going to be able to fight through it avoid the finish and outpoint Marquez. I think if it goes to 15 minutes and Marquez is not able to get the finish, I think NMAB is going to be having some moments if he doesn't get to finish himself. Like that the lack of the lack of striking defense, the high volume from MAB, I think he's going to be able to find success. It's a very closely lined fight. I could end up paying for that.

I mean, it's a very closely lined lower level fight. So I mean, just saying those words, it just sounds like I'm going to be paying for it. But I did rock with the Canadians. situation. I respect it. I have no bet on this one. I tried. I watched way more type for this fight than I wanted to because in my head, I just sort of feel like Julian Marquez should be a better fighter than he is. So he has some tools, some talent, but the lack of defense is critically damning to him as a fighter. And maybe he's going to keep fighting. He is going to be there for as long as it takes. Unless you literally separate him from conscience and it's like

Chee did. He's got a great gas tank and I just couldn't find anything I felt comfortable with so I have no bet. I'm just, I'm cheering you on buddy. Thank you man. I appreciate that and Rick unless you have something to say I know you're a huge Julian Marquez guy if not

though we can keep moving. Let's keep it rolling. All right next up, Walter Wape out. We've got Ian Gary taking on sunken on I mean, all right now you Why is this fight? happening. Someone explain.

To give Ian Gary another win on his record on a pay-per-view card. Okay, but why can't we give him somebody that makes a little more sense? Ian Gary minus 645. Tonkin on plus 480.

I mean, I just feel like Ian Gary's the better fighter. Yeah, by like a lot. And that's my only issue with this fight is like, one, Ian Machado Carrey. I believe he said in his last fight that's like he wants to be known as that.

That is. I'm sorry. That's my first. Give the future. Sorry about that. But yeah, Ian Machado, Gary, dudes looked great. Like, he looks like a real prospect,

and he's getting a dude. Like, I don't, what is the best thing you can say about song? Let me throw out an alternate universe here. Song comes out, catches Ian Gary. I mean, we saw Ian Gary get a little bit wobbled in the Jordan Williams fight. He does have nine wins by knockout.

I mean, that could happen. My thought is less like if song wins and that's damning and sure, but it's just like it's, if Ian wins, what are we gaining here really? I'm not saying he needs to get a top 25 opponent, but this is, it's just a weird matchup that I don't, like, it's a dude coming off a loss. It's a dude who's been out for over a year. Well, almost two years at this point, actually. It's just a very, I thought when I looked at this that this must have been a short notice change of opponent. But it's not, it's just what they booked.

And I don't, it feels like you could have done a lot better things that would have given us more information about Ian Gary than this fight. And in case it wasn't clear, I'm picking Ian Gary to win and I'm taking him in my parley. So this is the weirdest fight on the whole event. I did the same. There's really not a ton to say. to that. Rick, do you know why they're making this fight? You know all sorts of things.

I don't know. This just feels like the Paddy Pimbley fights. Why not? Just one more. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. Just one more. Like now he's four and o in the UFC and he can say that. And now that we're going through this fight card and we're talking through everything, it is, it's good that we obviously go in reverse order. It's good. We're going to crank up in this one. The start. This is the turning point of the- card, card getting legs. Yeah,

I mean, the last seven fights are just like, whew, I'll give it the last eight. Yves and Arrucho. You know what? I'm going to say Marquez and Mab is going to be fun too.

It's going to be fun because Julian Marquez is almost exclusively in fun fights. Yeah, I mean, it's going to be a ramp up. Maybe Julian Marquez. I mean,

my desire is hot in the streets right now with her new single. Maybe he does another call out, gets another shot at it, but she might just be fully out of his league at this point. Either way. At this point?

I'm saying this point. One of the all-time great bag fumbles. Just pantheon. I mean, absolutely. Truly one of the biggest failings in the history of this fine sport. We'll keep it rolling. No, we'll skip over Monta Martinez, Cameron Simon. I've got nothing on that one.

I know you don't either. I have no idea what the hell is going to happen. Yeah, I mean, sorry. I only have so much time in this life that I have. I can't spend it watching Monta Martinez's decision losses. I just can't do it. Moving on. We'll go to...

Also, he doesn't even have his coach because he can't chain of glory anymore. I have no idea what he's doing now. Next up, it is a women's strawway bow. You got Jessica Penning taking on Tabitha Ricci right now, man. You can get Tabitha Ritchie for the small price of minus 300. Jessica Penae plus 250. I don't have anything on this one.

Tabith Ritchie minus 300. This fight was supposed to happen back in September, and I had Tabith Ritchie minus 160. same exact fight paying paying that much more I just have no interest in it but yeah I do

tell me you parleyed up Tabitha Ritchie yeah Tabitha Ritch is just in the parley because it's like okay she's not bad and Jessica Penae is old and not a good grappler it's like these are the things that we've known about Jessica Penae

for it feels like a thousand years at this point she is not a particular particularly good grappler, and she's a bad defensive wrestler, and Tabitha Ricci is good at both of those things. Sure, she's much smaller, but Jessica Penny is not going to do anything with that size advantage. She's 40 years old, good for her to have got the win over Carolyn Nicole Kovic a couple years back, like, instead of going out on a total horrible losing streak, but no, we're just, this is easy parlayer up. I don't care that the price is double what it was

previously. Yeah, I feel pretty sick about losing that one. I'm not going to lie. I mean, that would be a great bet. I would love this bet at minus 160. Love it. I'd marry it. Wow, strong words.

But minus 300, I'm still willing to take it out for dinner, you know? Yeah, yeah, strong words surrounding a... Here's one that's interesting. Here's one that's interesting. Tabitha Ricci fight. The point spread? Tabitha Ritchie minus three and a half. I was just to say she's got to be three and a half, right?

Plus one, six. I mean Yeah That's not bad What's by decision Tabitha Ritchie By decision By minus 1.45

Really? Yeah that that point spread That point spread is looking Better than my parley number I don't I don't hate that I don't hate that at all If you're expecting one way traffic

That's a tasty one I mean I might have to go hunting to find that one out there. Jessica Penne is not good. 40% take down defense. It's really bad, bro. That is over a large sample size. It's a lot of fights.

Lupi Godinez who, here, here's the thing, right? People can look at this fight and be like, so small. Lupi Godin has repeatedly took Penne down. Lupi Godin has like the same size as Tabith Ricci. Yeah, I mean, yeah, I mean, Tabitha Ricci is just like, just chain wrestles. Like, that's all she does. Yeah, she's really good at it, man. She gets four, she gets like four take downs a fight.

Yeah, maybe I'll look into that. That point spread is an interesting bet. That's a good find. I mean, you get one 3027. You're golden. Yeah, I mean, Jessica Pena is, the size disparity does worry me, but you said Lupi Gonnino's. Jessica Pena beat Lupi Godinez, though. But she gave up several takedowns in that fight.

Yeah, you got a splitie, splity. I'm going to sit on that one. Think it over. I like that. I like that we felt that out there. I love that we gained knowledge for all of us. As we're pushing, as we're over 90 minutes, but we should talk about these last two fights. Two fights to go.

Rick's dozing off. I would too if I was in a room that dark. But we got a Bantamway bow. And battling the demons like years too. It's tough. It's tough. I mean, it's pitch black behind him too. I mean, we're really just getting the frontal of his face.

It's just the laptop that we can see here. But Farid Basharat is taking on Damon Blackshare. Right now, you can have Bashirot for minus 450 Blackshare coming back at plus 360. I par laid up Bashirat. I like what the Bashirat. Brothers doing there. Ferocious, not as cool of a nickname as the Snow Leopard, but it's still pretty cool. Watchback his Contender Series fight. I mean, he's just a good all-around fighter. Like,

well-rounded game, 3026 dominant win. Like, he can strike, he can grapple. He seems to have a solid gas tank. Going back to his regional tape, like kind of the same things, like just seems to be a pretty well-rounded fighter. Blackshear. It was on short and notice, but man, he fell off in that in that third round again, Yusuf Zalal. And he wasn't that impressive in those first two rounds. Got to give him the shout out, the losses outside the UFC, Danny Sabatelo, Pat Sabatini. We don't have to get into Chris Matino one, but like some decent competition for his losses outside of the UFC. Either way, I just feel like wherever this game goes, I feel like Boshrat's pretty much got it covered. I have no comments on this. Uh,

Other than to ask a very simple question, because I have no thoughts on the fight. Is the ferocious name? Is it the preface nickname? Is it ferocious Farid Basharat? Because if so, then I fuck with that nickname. I love, I think we don't do enough of that. They basically only people do like sugar anymore, which is real dumb. Like, you should always do it.

You should always ferocious, Fareed Basharat, that nickname rules. Let's see. I mean, I'm going into Twitter right now. Obviously, our generation search engine. Foof. Unfortunately, yeah. I can't remember how Buffer did it. This is pretty unfortunate that it looks like we are getting a Farid, ferocious

Boschrod. Oh, and that's trash. Trash name. Which I'm actually... Can't back the fighter with that trash name. I'm in 100% agreeance with you in that. Like, this should be a ferocious Farid Boschran. Rod, Fareed, Ferocious is, that's a fumble.

Doesn't roll off the tongue at all. No, God, how could it? It's, yeah, that's, I see a little bit out there that says the opposite. So I think you might, I think you might be in for the better version. Look, here's what we'll do. Come Saturday, if, if Buffers out there and he goes, ferocious free Boshrat, I'm live betting. I'm right there, boom, out of principle. But if it's freed ferocious, betting on Blackshear.

You know, got to, can't respect the man with Reed ferocious. It's an awful nickname. I'm trying to find out right now. Yes, I've done it. I've located it. Will we get the announcements, though? No, we won't. We'll never know.

We will find out on Saturday night, actually. That's how we're going to determine whether or not this is a good bet or not. If it's if it's Farid Ferocious, this is an L. No doubt if it's ferocious for reads. I mean, that is an easy bet. All right, man, I feel like the gas tanks, speaking of gas tanks, I feel like we ran hot at the beginning there. And those first like seven fights, I was on fire.

Like I was ready to run through a wall. The main card is incredible. Now like, this is a ramp up card. This is a ramp up card. Fantastic. Fantastic on the back end. We definitely have to ramp up to get there. Let's finish it off.

Last fight of the night. Esteban. Riebovich going up against Loyk, Redzabov. Tough one. Well done. Tried my best. Short notice. Short notice for Radzabob, but he's a massive favor, minus 265.

Rebovich's one of those guys, pretty much exclusively gets finishes. He's an undefeated prospect. I don't really have any comments on this one. Like, feel like Loik could be a pretty solid play if he wasn't coming in on short notice. But at the current juncture, I have no plays. I'm assuming you have something, Jen. I sure do. And it's, it's on Riebevich.

I am surprised that this line is this wide. Short notice, too? Lloyd, Lloyd's short notice and like, he's not, what's sort I'm looking for? Good. Whoa. He's not good. Like, if you've watched him fight, he is not bad, but he, you know, I mean, he's in the PFL for years and he barely kept his head above water.

and sure like some of his losses are to good dudes but his wins aren't over great guys it's just he's just a very mixed bag and uh rick said this earlier about one of my previous bets and it's a little bit here as well i have no idea of riebevich is is going to be good or not but you go and you watch what he's done on the regional scene uh and it's there are good signs there it's a 26 year old undefeated kid exclusively finishes most of them very early not terrible terrible opposition for some of those fights too. And you can see the way he fight. It's all aggression.

He can grapple. He can strike. He has natural power. He might not be good. And we've not really seen someone just tackle him and then hold him or do a lot of things. But I thought particularly given the short notice, he would be the favorite or at least somewhere close to a small dog. At plus 225, I was just like, well, I guess I'm going to bet this then.

And we'll bet on the potential because I love to see the best in people. I'm an optimist. I want to see the best in this 26-year-old undefeated prospect. Any thoughts on taking Riebevich inside the distance? Does that juice it up at all? Rebovich inside the distance plus 330 at one book, plus 300 at some? Plus 330 is interesting. It's a little bit interesting.

My issue is largely that Ratsabov has been. exceptionally durable in his career. And when I say exceptionally durable, I mean, he has never been stopped. And he's been in there with some decent dudes, and he's certainly been around the block. So I think particularly if he's going to win, it's going to be because Rebovich dumps the kitchen sink early and doesn't have the gas tank to back it up because he's never been to the third round, I don't think. But I just kind of want to, I think that they signed this kid for a reason. And I would like, I believe that he has some potential. And I'm at this price.

I'm willing to take a shot on the hope. All right. Well, uh, that does it. We made it to the end. Man, I mean, that was, there was about seven fights in there where we were just operating in their pure nirvana. I mean, I was just like, I couldn't wait till Saturday. Tailed off at the end there, but still feel good about it.

I think another reason is I'm definitely bet heavy on the back end. Like a lot of my bets take place on the main card, which I, which I love. and watch party on Saturday, you'll be able to see me sweat all those out. But yeah, I mean, it's... Yes, let's go. This is breaking news to me. This is breaking news to me.

I will be joining the watch party for the co-main event. Obviously, Mike Heck reached out and was like, the last time you had an all-in-bed on Valentina Shikchenko. He actually didn't say that. He asked was like, can you do the Shavchanko fight? And I was like, yes, I actually am all in on her again. He was like, ideal. Perfect. Let's go.

Let's go. That's what I love to hear. For my bets, I think, I think you did it. I think you talked to me into taking Sierra gone by decision plus 333. I took, Rachmanov-Neil under two and a half, Jalen Turner money line, Bo-Nichols sub, Garbrand Jones under two and a half, Durekis duplese money line, Mark Andre Barriault money line, parlays, Shevchenko Grasso over one and a half, Jones gone over one and a half. that pays out minus 141. Then the parley's. Love me, hate me.

Bo Nickel minus 1,400 in a parley with Shafcott and Shepchanko minus 192. Bashrat and Gary in a parley minus 213. I mean, we are just the shawkiest sacks of losers on earth this week, and I love it. And then I did a little Parlay the Parley's action. Basharad, Gary, Bo, Shavcott, Sheffchchenko, Tatyana Suarez from last week, plus 151. And those are my plays.

Probably going to add a greasy prop parlay and then just call it a day. Love the greasy props. All right, mine are zero gone by decision. I'm also going to take a little, little baby shot on zero gone by splitie at plus $1,200, but gone by decision at $3.30. Jones gone over.

It's heavyweight over, baby. Four and a half is minus 140. Schenko inside the distance, minus 150. Jalen Turner plus 190, bono nickel by sub, minus 120. Going to pull the trigger on Cody Garbrandt. I think he's like minus 170 right now, 175, something around there. Amanda Hebas by decision plus 175, Esteban Aribevich, plus 225.

And then I am going to be, I got to figure out where to put that one of these things. I don't remember which one I've circled here as far as the future bets. But I've got the Schmoney Parlay, Jishivchenko and Shafkat. That's minus 250. And then I've got my bigger, broader parlay. which is Jones gone over one and a half Shevchenko Grasso over one and a half Ritchie minus 300

Gary minus 645 and that pays out at plus 155 and then I have the all in bet everything on Chivchenco everything else must go on Chavchenko and that's it for the bet Ricky before we leave you

one thank you for joining us yeah we should have just said peace after the Garbrand fight I'd just been like all right well right We'll tie them strings here. But Ricky, what is, what's the best bet this weekend? Give us the one. The one best bet. Yeah, that's tough.

I'll be honest. I came out of the, like, you know, I sprinkle plays here and there. I'm not nearly as heavy as I used to be. I'll definitely have something on Jones. Smart man. I left here really feeling good about that Cody Garbrand one. I got to be honest. Yeah.

I really like it. I really like it. I'm going to play it and I feel good about it. I love it. He survives and he wins. I mean, he's the bad fighter. It's the Rob Font fight, man. Something in that fight changed and did it for me where I can't now, now instead of

being worried he's going to get knocked out every second because I was waiting for it in that fight. Oh, yeah. Now I'm like, you know what? Maybe time off did him some good and he'll be all right. I like that play quite a bit leaving this. So I will be making it as well. It's the lock of the century. Cody Garbrandt to win.

Nobody has ever gone wrong, betting money on Cody Garbrandt. It's been nothing but success. Listen to that. All right. That'll do it. UFC 285. Right now we're finishing with a little air of the tires.

Go back to that beginning when everything was just on fire and everything was great. I cannot wait for this card. It's going to be fantastic. A lot of questions are going to get answered. The return of John Jones, March is just going to be on fire. It's insane. We're back next week. UFC Las Vegas, but not the apex.

Piotr-Yon, taking on Maraub de Valshvili. It's going to be fantastic. Enjoy the fights this weekend. Got a lot of aves next weekend, boys. Oh, that's what I'm talking about. Give me a little ov parlay. That's what I'm here for. Shout out to New York, Rick.

Thank you so much for joining us, man. Could not have done that main card without you, especially not that John Jones fight. I mean, I was never going to dissect it like that. And that's it. That's all we got. Any last words, fellas? Just thank you.

Excited about this. Watch party. Watch it. It's fun. It's the best. It's awesome. And yeah, John Jones is back, baby.

John Jones is back. No matter how this goes, we don't know for how long, but he's back. It's a celebration. John Jones is freaking back, man. Enjoy it. Just got to enjoy.

Wait, before you say, or also, I have to say, I dropped the fellas there. I don't know where that came from. I don't know where that came from. No,

I'm not a fellow's guy. I'm not going to lie. You can be one. No, I don't want to. I'm not going to lie. I'm not going to lie. I don't want to know.

I don't want to know. We're done. We're coming up on a buck 45. Peace. We're out of here. See you next week. Yonbra. The Vox Media Podcast Network.