MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Leon Edwards beat Kamaru Usman at UFC 278 and bring the title home to England?

Episode Date: August 17, 2022

The No Bets Barred boys are back to break down the final fight card of the UFC 12-event summer run, UFC 278, which goes down in Salt Lake City. The main event is a welterweight title fight between Kam...aru Usman and Leon Edwards, with "Rocky" looking to become only the second British fighter to win UFC gold. In light of a such a momentous occasion, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew are joined by Tony Calatayud of the Dan Le Batard Show to break down all the best bets, preach the gospel of flyweight unders, and take a shot on a +1000 prop play in the main event. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?
Starting point is 00:00:19 Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another edition of No Bet's Bar this time.
Starting point is 00:00:57 We're capping off 12 straight weeks of UFC cards with UFC 278 in Salt Lake City. No better way to close out this insane run of UFC cards than bringing on a special guest. I'm joined as always with my co-host Jed Mishu, but I am happy to welcome in. a man of lebitard fame he is also the host of the world renowned critically acclaimed m m mhmay hangout it is tony and i'm going to give this a try here kalata yude nice that's good yeah that's perfect it's tony kalata yud tony how we doing man i'm doing good guys great to be on the show uh love all your guys's work um i've been battling with my last name since i was born obviously and throughout school even though
Starting point is 00:01:45 I live in Miami, had been born and raised in Miami, like the name is of Spanish descent. I'm Cuban, Cuban, American, but my name is a city in Spain. And it was really tough to get Cuban people in Miami to be like, what is that? It's, oh, it's something from Spain where essentially all of our ancestors are from,
Starting point is 00:02:03 but don't worry about that. So I've been battling with that my whole life, but it's all good. I'm proud to say that I did, I did pretty good. You nailed it. First try. Jed, what's going on, man? How are we feeling? I'm doing great.
Starting point is 00:02:13 this card is interesting. I'm not even going to try to get your last name, Tony, because that's not where I thrive. It's all good. It's all love, Jed. Yeah, I'm going to butcher Davalishvili, like, a hundred times this episode anyway, so... I'm glad you started because I was just going to call him a rab.
Starting point is 00:02:31 We just call him the machine around these parts, baby. We're going to have conflict. I know we're going to have conflict when we get to that fight, but we're going to call him Devon... I think we are going to have conflict, and it's going to really start a fight, in this group because we'll get to that in a minute. We'll get that to that in a minute.
Starting point is 00:02:49 Too far in advance. I'm doing great, guys. Thanks, Tony, thanks for coming. Connor. Yes. I mean, who am I over here? I'm just, I'm trying to move along right with it. I don't even thank our guests for taking the time out of his day.
Starting point is 00:03:01 And we're just doing a disservice to everyone taking in this content that it's audio only because Tony's setup is, there's not enough stars on the scale to give it. I was going to give it five stars. This deserves six, seven stars. Wood paneling, authentic oak, or is that maple? I don't know what it is behind you. Neon signs, it's unbelievable. Draft Kings, obviously, we love and support our soulmates at Draft Kings over here on the Levitard show.
Starting point is 00:03:29 They love and support us. Yeah, I got over the right shoulder. I've got a nice portrait of Michael and Don Vito Corleone. Just kind of hanging over, just in case people need to know what the deal is. I always pointed that and be like, I could be either one. You let me know. Can I let you in on something? The Godfather was actually a pandemic watch for me.
Starting point is 00:03:50 I had never seen it prior to 2020. Well, I'm glad you at least saw the first two, right? First two. Got some Ben and Jerry's canoli ice cream, sat down and watch both of them. What are you thoughts? I mean fantastic movies, fantastic soundtrack. I just went to Italy this summer. I was playing The Godfather, you know, like that main theme.
Starting point is 00:04:10 I mean, oh, yeah, Euro stepping over here. That's what we like to call it. But shout out to Tony. Thank you for coming on. Beautiful setup. When we finally get YouTube going for this thing, we're going to bring you back on so everyone can see this thing.
Starting point is 00:04:22 Yeah, absolutely. UFC San Diego, flyweight unders. Little thing we do here, Tony, we bet flyweight hunters. And we're seemingly proving that they don't lose. They've never lost. They can't lose.
Starting point is 00:04:35 That's why we bet them. This is the first I'm hearing of this, by the way. This would have been nice a long time ago. Well, don't worry. There are two flyweight fights on the, this card and you can join the train because they never lose. And, Connor, I'm going to be honest with you. The public is starting to notice because those lines, those lines are coming out a little juicier than they used to be. Well, I'm not going to lie to you, man. The, the, uh,
Starting point is 00:04:56 the, the Silva to Marano. Everyone knows that I bet it. I, I snagged it at plus 115. It has dropped significantly since it came out. The world knows. The world knows. You also did a test of heavyweight overs, uh, sweaty, but it hit. It, it sure did. It. Did. Look, I'm not willing to say heavyweight overs don't lose, but we're further research is needed. But I'm feeling okay about it. And fortunately, got a heavyweight fight to talk about this week as well. With a pretty intriguing over one and a half in it as well. Cheeto, foot to the mouth of Cruz. I mean, insane. It was incredibly violent. Not at all. The outcome.
Starting point is 00:05:38 The fight went a lot like, like I think we both thought. And we said, like, yeah, you know, Dominic Cruz can have moments, but I think Cheeto's just going to be more dangerous. I thought it would look a lot like the Rob Font fight. But Dominic Cruz, not a guy who gets finished. Cheeto Vare is a whole different breed, apparently, because that, that wasn't a question. There was no question in that. That was done. Sign sealed, broke his whole face in half.
Starting point is 00:06:02 Cheetos is a problem, dude. A problem. Guys, where did this Cheeto come from? Does anybody have a good answer for that? he's only like 28. Like this is, I think, this is just his natural. This is sort of, I think, just the natural thing. And we know, Connor, your dear friend, my dear friend, Ariel Hawani said years and years ago that this dude's going to be fighting for a title.
Starting point is 00:06:26 And I think that's just it. Like he just sort of, this is the natural development to where he is, just a world-class problem for anybody, 135 pounds or less. And like how can you not just love the dude? The way he comes off in interviews, the way that he fights stylistically, he's always exciting. Like he just seems like such a chill, easygoing guys. He has got to be top 10 most likable guys in the UFC. I love me some Cheeto Vera. Yeah, I mean, he's fantastic.
Starting point is 00:06:58 He's just a good hang. He's a bit of a throwback to the I don't care, dude. Like just I'll fight anybody. It does not matter to me in the slightest. You know, he was on the. on the MMHour, great program this week. Great program, sure. And said the same thing.
Starting point is 00:07:13 I don't really care if I get a title fight next. Just line them up, I'll knock them down. I keep winning. Eventually the belt's going to come to me out. I'm not too fussed about it. That's such an amazing place to be, right? Where you're like, I don't really give a shit. Can I curse on this program?
Starting point is 00:07:26 I don't know. Go ahead, man. Okay. So I don't give a shit who's in front of me. I don't really care if I have a title fight or not. I'm just going to fucking kill everybody in front of me. And like, that's such a great place to be as a fighter, right? I feel like not being ever inside of an octagon in my entire life,
Starting point is 00:07:40 but having the confidence that like, it doesn't matter who you put in front of me in my division, I am going to mow them down and I'm going to make them look like I did Dominic Cruz on Saturday in San Diego. Like, that's that's a really good place to be. Dude, and the confidence that he has that he's going to be champion, that he's just, he's so sure of himself that he's going to be champion the way that he comes in.
Starting point is 00:08:02 Like, I feel like the attitude, the attitude that he approaches, not only his fights, but his everyday life and his training, contributes heavily to how successfully has been of late. I mean, it's incredible to watch. Yeah, man, he has for sure arrived, and I'm excited to see where he goes. I do it. How can you not be?
Starting point is 00:08:23 I can't wait until he books his next fight. Last two things I want to say on that fight. The Dominic Cruz, more significant strikes, I mean, that thing locked up the second that fight started, Dom comes out with a little flurry of punches. Every time he went on one of those little flurry of punches, I was like, Dom, you're just, you're doing the damn thing right now, locking it up. What a bat.
Starting point is 00:08:44 Oh, God, it was such, I mean, I don't want to lie here. I low-key pinpointed it, you know, had the same game parlay, Marlon over two and a half, you know, Cruz, more significant strikes. We did pretty good there. Lastly, though, something I mentioned, Jed, Dom Cruz to not win by finish, minus 2000. I said that probably had some value on it. You know, I wish I was a heavy investor.
Starting point is 00:09:08 I could have just put $200,000 on that. He would, like, I don't think there's any world where Dominant Cruz would ever finish Marlon Verra. Like every flurry, every punch, I was like, there is no chance that Cheeto is getting finished there. Oh, yeah. I mean, that's the last person, we talked about it. Last dude, he finished with Mizugaki and Cheetos is Cheeto. Like, you can give me a baseball bat and I'm not finishing. Chito Vera, so it doesn't matter, man.
Starting point is 00:09:35 Like, dude will go through fire. It is, it's insane. Yeah. It's almost like, you know when you're in a dream and you're trying to punch somebody in your dream and it's just like not hitting as hard as you thought it would hit? I feel like that's when we were watching. It's just like, he's hitting him as hard as he can. It's just like there.
Starting point is 00:09:52 Nothing happened. Nothing, dude. It's incredible. So shout out to Chito Vera. I can't wait to watch his next fight. Can't wait to see you gets booked against, man. The Bantamweight Division, people are really taking notice to it. it is getting incredibly interesting.
Starting point is 00:10:05 We've got bigger business. Wow. Screwed that one up. I'm not letting you walk by anyway because I got a little gloating to do my head, sir. Oh, please, please, please. Because Angela Hill by decision. Oh, great call. Plus $350.
Starting point is 00:10:19 That was a great call. What a hit. That's just. Yes. If I won no other bets, I was covered just by hitting that one. That was a fantastic. Almost got the split. I really thought you were going to get the split, too.
Starting point is 00:10:30 The split prop. plus 1,400 or whatever it was? I think it was plus 12. Just. So I, when it went to this, like, when the final horn sound, I was like, I've done it. I have spiked angelio by split decision. Yes. And then somehow the judges got it right, those bastards.
Starting point is 00:10:48 They never get fights right. And now until they get it when it hurts me financially. Yeah, I was texting with you during it. And as soon as the round ended, I was like, dude, I think you're going to get that split decision. The corner of loopy, not to be like. Like, all right, it's clearly one-one. You haven't gone to that wrestling yet. We should probably just try that out.
Starting point is 00:11:06 Let's just go blast the double leg and see if it works out for us. But she wanted to test the hands. She wanted to test the hands, and it did not work out for it. You know, it's important to know the fighters who don't have great fight IQ because fading them is always, it feels good. I was too high after the Cornelosi fight. I was too high. I mean, but you didn't lose because you didn't have anything on Lupy, did you?
Starting point is 00:11:29 Yeah, I did. I did. I had her in the parlay and the M.M.A.m. A parlay. Oh, I forgot you. Oh, yeah. Guy sent me a shirt. I was wearing a Lupita Godine's shirt. It was already dead. It already dead. It was already dead. Yeah, I was wearing a Lupita Godine's shirt during the fight. Yeah, it was pretty sad taking it off afterward.
Starting point is 00:11:48 I went and changed. Went back to my room and changed. As you should. Yeah, I felt bad. The guy who sent me it was like, I don't know how I'm going to flip this merch now. I was like, that's a tough spot. That's not my problem, buddy. It's a tough spot to be in. I'm sorry. Not my farm there. All right. Let's see if I can land the ad dismount on this on. We have some bigger business to attend to now. UFC 278 in Salt Lake City, Utah. It is a pay-per-view. Let's get right
Starting point is 00:12:17 into it. The main event. It is. Amen's welterweight title fight. It is Kamaro, the Nigerian nightmare going up against Leon Rocky Edwards. Right now you can get Usman at minus 380. Edwards It's coming back at plus 310. Fight goes minus 140. Fight does not go the distance at plus 110. I am seeing a decent amount of love for Leon Edwards this week. How are we feeling about it? You know, I really wanted to bet Leon Edwards.
Starting point is 00:12:48 And depending on if the line moves, I could. But I don't have any straight action on this one. I don't know where your head's at. But I think the line's pretty close to right as it sits right now. Like, I do think Leon is not totally out of this fight, especially after watching a bunch of tape. I don't, I just don't love him at the price. I want him to be over plus 300, you know.
Starting point is 00:13:11 Like, if he's something in there, then I take a swing. Do have some prop plays on this one, though. I don't know what betting action you have for the main, but I've got a couple of prop wagers here. Tony, how are we feeling about the main event, man? look anytime that you've got probably the pound for pound best fighter in the world um i hesitate to bet against him in any capacity right obviously we saw what happened in a long time ago feels like a million years ago in usman and and edwards won but i feel like uspan has evolved so
Starting point is 00:13:47 much as a fighter throughout these last what has been 19 fights or whatever it is um what what I saw him do to Colby, what I saw him do to George in April of last year, was an Oussman that was like, oh, wow, he's kind of bringing everything together finally. Like, I don't know about you guys, but I did not see him knocking out George Mazza at all in that fashion. Like, it was like a movie. No one in the world saw him doing that. Ever, right?
Starting point is 00:14:16 Like, I was like, okay, he's going to wrestle him. Like, we're, we see what's going to happen here is a pretty easy path to victory. George is not great on the ground. he's a stand-up guy like usman will get his points though it'll go to decision he'll win but like the fact that he knocked out a guy with that caliber chin i was like oh shit like anything can happen now so for me like i understand that edwards has been a lot better right he's won as what last like 10 fights or something but that that shot that he took from nate diaz kind of put me in a position of like oh shit if if if maro gets him like he may be wobbling and going down and then
Starting point is 00:14:52 take down the fights over. So like for me it's really tough to bet against Kamar Husband, no matter what the price is, right? Yeah, I mean, dude, I'm 100% with you. Like he, he meme-caoed George in that situation. And it's, it's something that like also you think about it. He's improving the striking. He's working with Trevor Whitman. I mean, he's looked fantastic. He's gotten three KOs and I think his last six fights. But then you also have to think back, like what got Kamarer Usma to this point? What got him the win the first time against Leon Edwards is the wrestling. Like, he can always go back. to that wrestling. I'm seeing some people saying, you know, he's getting older. The knee issues
Starting point is 00:15:27 might become a thing. But for a guy, like you said, having a difficult time betting against Kamarouzman, I need to see that before I believe it. I mean, this guy is 15 and 0 in the UFC. He's trying to, you know, tie for the longest winning streak in UFC history. Like, I just have a very hard time betting against him until, like, I see it with my own eyes that the cliff is coming, that he actually is starting to fall off. I think he'll be well prepared for this. I think he'll come in with a game plan to use that wrestling. I think this one probably goes long.
Starting point is 00:16:01 I think that Leon Edwards is probably the better striker here, but he really doesn't bring a ton of volume. I mean, when you look at it, he has, in 14 UFC fights, he's never landed 100 strikes, whereas Camaro four times in his last seven fights, he's landed 100 strikes. I think he'll be more active on the feet. I think he can mix in the takedowns,
Starting point is 00:16:20 better. And if you just look at both their histories, like, Leon Edwards has never been finished. So I do hesitate to say that Camaro is going to get a finish here. But I think that this fight goes long, and I think that Camaro outpoints them over the course of the 25 minutes. So I'm excited because now I'll just be the, I'll be the Leon guy. You guys are both so staunchly on it on Usman. I can actually do have something to say after you say this. So, so I don't want to dive, like, way too deep into this just because we could talk about this fight forever and we, you know, we need to have some restrictions on time. High level fight, dude. High level fight.
Starting point is 00:17:00 Yeah. I am totally buying the, I've had questions about Camarro for his last couple of fights, not about his ability, but he is 35 and he has two knees that kind of don't work anymore. And he has been open about that. And like, that's just how it goes. And we have seen that. His wrestling, his defensive wrestling is still absolutely unbelievable, probably the best defensive wrestler in the history of the sport, if we're being, like, totally honest.
Starting point is 00:17:27 But his offensive wrestling was never hugely a shot-based game anyway. That almost doesn't exist for him anymore. He is going to pop the jab. He is going to use the footwork to cut the cage or reactively grab a clinch and take you down. He is not going to shoot in space. And that's why I think, Leon, has a lot better at a chance in this fight. Because, as you said, I think Leon is the more technical striker.
Starting point is 00:17:52 He is obviously not as powerful as strikers, Oostman. But Ousman's striking game really is extremely bare bones. I think that's really good for MMA because especially if that's not your purview, you know, you're not a striker. Don't get too bogged down in the details, like build fundamentals and just work that. And that's really what Ousman does a lot. I think Edwards can have success there because he has a little more craft. He's got a little more depth to his game. And on the pacing thing, I just don't think that's going to be a huge issue here.
Starting point is 00:18:24 Both of them prefer a slower-paced striking battle in general. And I think to some extent, Ousman's striking, his pace is largely working off his jab. And so I guess the caveat to everything I'm saying is, to me, this fight largely comes down to the jab. because I don't think Ustman will have nearly as much success wrestling this time around. I think Edwards has improved dramatically in that regard. And so it's going to be if Edwards has enough tricks to deal with the jab of Ustman because that's where everything starts with him on the feet and then he can occasionally follow it with the big power shot.
Starting point is 00:18:58 I think he's going to be really well-schooled to that and prepared for it. And so we're going to have a really tactical, maybe not the most exciting for being frank fight, where you're going to see Leon go to a lot. lot of leg kicks, Leon, jabbing with Usman, doubling up the jab on Usman and trying to have that craft. And it's going to take Usman showing championship medal, which obviously has. But in general, I just think this fights a lot closer.
Starting point is 00:19:23 The big thing that scares me is, as Tony pointed out, I mean, Nate Diaz is not the world's greatest fighter. And Nate Diaz really hurt Leon a couple. Like, he heard him obviously the one we all know about, but I wouldn't rewatch that fight, obviously, in prep for this. And there are several times when Leon just gets out a little over his skis in combination and Nate hit him back. I am assuming that he is smart enough to recognize that doing that against Usman
Starting point is 00:19:51 is just going to get him colded. But if he does it and he just might get colded because Camaro hits really hard, he's got really good eyes. His timing in those situations is strong. But I think this fight can be very close. the problem with betting Leon is that Leon probably can't hurt Camaro, even though Camaro's been rocked a little bit in recent fights. And I have some real questions about if age is catching up to him,
Starting point is 00:20:19 Leon's just not a finisher like that. So he has to throw perfect for 25, and Usman doesn't, which does make it really hard to bet against him. But like I said, if that number moves on Leon, which I kind of think it might as we get closer, if Leon gets to plus 300 plus 350, I'm going to go ahead and jump on it. You can get him at plus 310 right now, Drafking Sportsbook.
Starting point is 00:20:43 Last time I looked, he was under 300 there. Plus 310. So everything they... I'm probably not even going to bet that now because I genuinely just think that the line is going to keep moving to Usman as we get closer, and I can get that number even more inflated. Yeah, I mean, I think so too. I think people are just going to continue to make parlayers with Usman being the anchor, which is something that I did do. I used Usman as a parlay piece, but everything that you just said, I do think that this is a closer fight. Then maybe a lot of people want to believe it is.
Starting point is 00:21:13 I mean, Usma, 22 and 1, he hasn't lost yet in the UFC. You know, it's easy to think that he's just going to keep rolling here. But all the concerns you said, on top of he doesn't really have the power to hurt him, like he isn't the biggest finisher. I think if he wins, he's just got to be perfect for 25 minutes. I did throw a sprinkle. A couple books got it posted plus 1,000. Leon Edwards by decision. Took a little sprinkle,
Starting point is 00:21:38 though. Yes, sir. Plus a thousand. I was like... When I said I had some props, that was the first thing I looked at and saw on this card was because plus a thousand is in...
Starting point is 00:21:51 If that, if Leon wins, to me, it feels like it's just him winning a decision in this regard. He's a little bit faster. He's a little bit cleaner. Maybe he gives up some rounds to clinch fighting or whatever. But it's not that he just, just clatters Usman.
Starting point is 00:22:06 Like that's not what he does. Like I will just be like, I will just be shocked if, if like he just ices Usman out here. Like, that would be so great. That would be so great. Are there any odds on a K.O? Edwards by K.O.
Starting point is 00:22:23 Right now on Draf King's Sportsbook is plus 550. Which seems surprising to me, dude. Like if you look back at his career, Edwards, 10 of his 13 fights in the UFC have gone to a decision. Usman has been finished once in his career. The one time he lost it was by submission and that was a decade ago. I know he's getting older, but like, for a guy that isn't a finisher and a guy that has never been knocked out before, it feels weird that the knockout number is so much lower than the decision number.
Starting point is 00:22:57 And a fight that's favored to go to a decision. I agree. I think it just has to be because we've seen, you know, we've seen Kamarro struggle recently. The Gilbert Burns. Gilbert really had him rattled for a good bit. For sure. I think we sort of forget about it because it's Covington. But Covington hurt Camaro a couple of times in that fight as well.
Starting point is 00:23:17 Like he is being consistently, you're seeing some of that happen. And so I assume that that's why the number comes down. Or it's just that everyone thinks so well. If Leon's going to win, it just has to be by one big punch because he can't win 25 against Usman. No one can. Here's a question for both of you, though. Please. And then, because I do have one, I have two more bets on this that I can quickly throw in at the end.
Starting point is 00:23:45 But are you guys giving any credence to the idea that, as we said, Leon Edwards was on the MMA hour, great program, talked about Usman, said, money's getting to his head. You guys giving any credence to the idea that maybe Usman's looking a little past Edwards here? because I know he was jacked up for the Covington rematch. Like that one is a guarantee, but nobody's excited here. So do you think it's possible that there's Amanda Nunes, Giuliana Pena's situation brewing? Talking light heavyweight, talking Canelo. I mean, I think there's a case to be made for that,
Starting point is 00:24:20 but also it just, it feels like he's a very serious champion. Like it just feels like no matter the opponent, he takes them seriously. I think also the camp that he trains at, you know, sort of forces him to have that mentality as well. But, I mean, you can make the case. Okay, but let's all at least acknowledge that the funniest possible outcome is Usman coming out talking about wanting to go to light, heavyweight and then losing to Leon fucking Edwards, right? Like, that's easily the funniest possible outcome that can happen here. Or Leon, yeah, I guess Leon wins. I've seen a couple people say this, and I actually tend to agree.
Starting point is 00:25:04 Do we think that whoever wins this is going to lose the Hamzaat in the next fight? I have been predicting Hamzot to win the World's Way Belt for nearly a year. And after watching the tape for this fight, I left that thinking, if Leon is developing because he's still only 30 or maybe 31, he actually really has a chance to win this fight. And if Hamzot were fighting him, I would pick Hamzot to win. I think Comzot is going to have the belt next. I 100% agree with that.
Starting point is 00:25:33 Sorry, I'm laughing. I feel a little bit spacey here. I was thinking that Tony was just sitting dead still. But, yeah, we have now just lost them. We've lost Tony. Yeah, we lost Tony. He was sitting very, I was like, wow, he's sitting dead still. I gave a little bit of pause.
Starting point is 00:25:49 I thought he was going to talk. He didn't talk. I was like, all right. And then he sat like a statue, and I was like, oh, we definitely lost this guy. He's frozen for sure. So hopefully he fixes Wi-Fi, and we get him back on here very soon. But yeah, so we both think Usman can win, but we think it will be a tough fight. Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:26:15 And so because we've talked a lot about this fight, I'll just go ahead and throw my other two bets out. Please do. Glad to hear. You're going to be on one of them, or at least with me in principle, and that. I took the over two and a half. It's minus 285 right now. or was at the time, I used it as a parlay piece because it seems really unlikely to me that honestly a finish even happens, but a two and a half, that number was quite low.
Starting point is 00:26:39 And then I'm on the Edwards by decision prop and I decided to throw a little sprinkle as well on the Usman by Keow prop just because of, if Edwards gets a little too lax in his defense, which he's been known to do, Usman can't in fact just kill him So I'm on double-ended props And then I took the over Because I think the over is the most likely to hit Like by a wide margin Yeah the final slate for me is
Starting point is 00:27:05 Camaro in a couple parlias The over one and a half in a parley You know I love my juiceed up over one and a half And then the Leon by decision plus A thousand and the great news is I think we've got Tony back here I'm back boys, you got me Yes sir I uh
Starting point is 00:27:21 Okay the internet took a shit on me They were trying to stop me from having to take that it's hard to wake up when you have silk sheets and silk betting. Who isn't that said that? Some box it. Somebody. I feel like at this point, everyone said it. I think Marvin Hagler might have been the first to say it.
Starting point is 00:27:37 Might have been marvelous Marvin Hagler. We'll give him the credit. But man, when you've been living good and you've been the UFC champion pound for pound greatest of all time in your division possibly like, it's really easy to look over and be like, all right, who's next? Like you said, Connello, are we going to have a super massive fight where I don't don't really need to worry about fighting anymore because that paper view is just going to set me and my family for the rest of my life. He can go into the corner for his brother. Like,
Starting point is 00:28:01 there's a lot of things that can happen if he wins his fight and continues on his life. Like, there's a lot of stuff to overlook. So yeah. Yeah. The internet didn't want me to say that for some reason. Yeah, I don't know what was up with that. I tried to toss to you and, yeah, I just got stoned statute. So we had to keep on pushing. So it feels like we're all kind of in agreements here on the main event. Camaro probably wins, but not going to be completely shocked if Rocky Edwards does get it done.
Starting point is 00:28:28 All right, let's keep it rolling. Co-main event of the evening. It is a middle-way bout. Now we can really start having some fun now that we've moved through the main event. Paolo Costa going up against Luke Rockhold. Right now you can get Costa at minus 315 rockhold coming back at plus 260,
Starting point is 00:28:43 over under set at 1.5, over minus 140, under plus 110. For me, I took Paulo Costa inside the distance at minus 160. I just honestly think he's going to come in here, and at some point he will catch the chin of Luke Rockhold. I mean, Rockold, he's 37 now. He's coming back off of a three-year layoff.
Starting point is 00:29:03 He's been knocked out in three of his last four fights. Costa, I think he looks good. I think he's taking this fight seriously. I know he lost against Vittori, but I was pretty impressed with him. The way that he just goes to the body, especially with those kicks, is just unrelenting.
Starting point is 00:29:17 He's called the eraser for a reason. 11 of his 14 wins by knockout. Luke Rockhold, all five losses by K.O. I just am not going to overthink this. How does one guy win by almost exclusively knockout? How does one guy lose every time it's been knocked out? It's coming back after three years. I think Costa catches him.
Starting point is 00:29:40 I agree, baby. I wish they would let me bet a prop on what the punch is that knocks Luke Rockold out. I've seen the submissions. We don't have the jab left hook or anything like that yet. Look, you said that one guy loses one way. He really loses one way. It's a left hook.
Starting point is 00:29:58 He can't see him for whatever reason. I know Michael Bisping is the guy who doesn't have an eye, but it seems a lot like Luke Rockhold can't see out of one of his because left hook's just flooring every time they hit him in the face. I can't wait to give this same breakdown right before Luke Rockhold comes on the MMA hour tomorrow. you should absolutely do it because it's I'd tell it to you I was a huge Luke Rockhold stand I thought when that dude won the title I was like oh he's going to hold the belt for like six years because I thought this guy was unbelievable and then he just nobody ever threw a left hook at him
Starting point is 00:30:35 and so we didn't know we didn't know what we didn't know right and then nobody ever threw left hooks at him Vitor Belfort spinning kicked him in the face but I think that also came on his right side, if I'm remembering that correctly. So really, he just can't see over there. I don't know the problem. All I know is it hurts my heart because, while Luke Rockhold is very divisive figure in that he's kind of an asshole, he is, I mean this with all seriousness, he is the most predatory offensive grapple I've ever seen in the sport.
Starting point is 00:31:11 That includes Habem Nembergometov, that includes any, any dude. you've ever seen on the floor. If he, every single second that he has top position on a human being, it looks like an animal planet style mauling. It looks like a pride of lions on the weak gazelle. When he, when Wyden through that stupid spin or whatever, and Rockhold ended up on him, it was the most aggressively violent ass kicking from that position you will ever see.
Starting point is 00:31:44 And every time he's, ended in that position, he is throttling people. And so his whole game, in my opinion, should always have been, let's get this dude like three good takedowns. If we can give him Habib's chain wrestling, nobody will ever defeat him.
Starting point is 00:32:00 And instead, he stands straight up in the air, leaves his chin out there, tries to kick you, gets punched and falls over. It's really unfortunate because he has such an A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus skill. And, like, if he did it in this fight, I think he would win handily but i don't think he's going to do it i think paula cost is going to come forward
Starting point is 00:32:20 uh he's going to rip to the body and then find a left hook over the top and put luke raukeold so i'm with you yeah go ahead my bad no i'm saying i'm with you Connor i'm on the same bet inside the distance minus 160 all right tony tell us uh tell us why you're betting luke rakeold wasn't that obvious even though like he's been knocked at his last five his last 10 haven't gone the decision which is kind of a crazy stat when you've got 10 for fights and none of them go to decision not once. Like you said, and a pure, amazingly gifted offensive grappler and just... We have a word around here for that, Tony.
Starting point is 00:32:55 It's called get or get got. Luke Rockhold is get or get got guy. I like that. I like that. So with that being the case, like, can you not see a version of this fight where he comes back, obviously after a long layoff and is really pressing, like, I'm going to get cost it to the ground i'm going to make sure that i play my game right and you can see it across sports right like there is a it reminds me of the game uh it was last year bills versus patriots in that windstorm in buffalo where it was like four degrees and like the winchill had it like negative 50
Starting point is 00:33:33 where the patriots just ran 77 times and they're like you can't stop us we're just going to run the ball that can you see a version in some multiverse where luke rock hole just takes him to the ground and beats him in like it goes to decision he beats him you know perfectly no i i can't see a universe where it goes to decision if it goes to the ground zero he is going to kill him yeah like if rockhold gets this fight to the floor polo cost is dead because every person who has ever been on the floor with luke rockhold has died david branch was beating his ass and then rockwell got a take down and it like i said it was an animal planet murder like just that's just what that dude is on the floor, so I don't see a world
Starting point is 00:34:14 with this decision. I'm going to take him plus 260. Okay. All right. I mean, listen, he's... You might be a genius, Tony, because... I'm not, trust me. I'm certainly not a genius.
Starting point is 00:34:27 I can promise you that. So there's a chance that you are. I mean, Tony, the other way to spin this is that Connor and I are banking on you know, the very steady and reasonable and never going to let down Paulo Costa.
Starting point is 00:34:43 Right, of course. Because he is certainly not a headcase who has a level-headed dude, doesn't have alcohol issues, makes weight, makes great decisions, never has any problems. Yeah, exactly. What were you saying about Usman previously? He seems like a very focused champion. That's Paulo Costa, just right, just dots the tease and crosses the eyes every time. One thing I will say, you know, doing the old social media research, on IG and Twitter, he looks great.
Starting point is 00:35:19 He is so fit for this one. But he's first team all body, right? Oh, my God. This is a handsome matchup. Can we just get it out there? This is a handsome matchup. Oh, yeah, for sure. I previously called the Costa Yol Romero fight just the most handsome matchup in the history of the sport.
Starting point is 00:35:38 I mean, Yol L, if you don't like his face. Yes. Yoel's body is sculpted. I mean, the two of the best physiques, look, A plus plus. He's a Martian. And the actual answer is the best athlete in the history of MMA. Yeah, I mean, that's it.
Starting point is 00:35:57 But this is also a very good all-body matchup. Yeah. I mean, in all seriousness, like Costa looks great. If he just comes in, cruising in right at 185, blows up to 207 fight time and just comes in, puts the pressure on Rockhold and just like is unrelenting I just have a hard time
Starting point is 00:36:16 seeing Rockold lasting the 15 minutes. Plus there's a world where Rockold tries to get it to the ground and he isn't successful. I mean, Costa did a good job of stuffing the takedowns of Vittory and like Votori is, you know, a decent wrestler in his own. Rockold's not a great offensive wrestler either is the thing.
Starting point is 00:36:31 He's a really good counter-wrestler. If you shoot on him, that's where most of his grappling positions come from. I'd go to guess Costal won't do that. Yeah, it's not going to. My theory has always been that his style developed entirely because he was the one dude at AKA you can't wrestle. So he had to learn how to like counter wrestle incredibly effectively. And so he was really good at it.
Starting point is 00:36:51 But like, what's he shooting on Daniel Cormier for? Like that ain't doing shit for him. So he just never learned how to do it. And which is really bad because if he had, it'd be a lot better for his chances against Paula Costa. Yeah, either way, I'm pretty stuck for this main event. I think it's going to be fireworks for as long as it lasts. Me and Jed, cost them inside the distance. We got Tony on an island rocking with the dog and Luke Rockhold.
Starting point is 00:37:15 Solo, baby. I will say, Tony, spiritually, I hope you win because I think MMA is substantially more fun if Luke Rockwell can get a title fight with Israel to Sanya because that is a fight that would very much intrigue me. Wow. That's a... Really? It would intrigue you?
Starting point is 00:37:33 I mean, I think Izzy beats the hell out of him, but again, if Rockhole gets one takedown, he's going to kill him. So it's the inverse of a puncher's chance. It's the wrestler's chance. Yeah, the Luke Crocold's submission grappler's chance. Yeah, we can worry about that after, you know, we've got to get through Costa first, then we can start talking about title shots for old LR.
Starting point is 00:37:55 Make sure Izzy doesn't kick his head until 18th row. It's lost still on his body. I do think Izzy knows how to throw a left hook, which could be a problem for Luke Rockhold. I think he might have. I didn't think in my recent, research in my R&D, I didn't think, hey, you know what? He doesn't know how to stop a left hook.
Starting point is 00:38:12 I didn't see that on the internet. So you're actually breaking that news to me for the first time. If Palacosta starches this man with a left hook, it is going to be a all-time funny moment for everyone involved with no bet's bard. I am dead serious. If someone will cut me a prop for Costa wins by left hook, I would bet it. I would just snap that off. That's the bunch.
Starting point is 00:38:33 Because I think it's going to be a body shot, like a right hand to the body, and then coming up top, left hook, Luke Rockhold, done. Shadow Realm. Something about those cost of kicks, dude. He puts everything into that right into your body. Like, he is vicious with those body kicking matchup, too. Because Luke Rockhold kicks the body very, very well as well. Yeah, that's true, man.
Starting point is 00:38:54 It's going to be a good one, man. I'm excited for it. I think it's going to be fun. It's a fun one. Let's keep it moving, though. Let's stay on the main card. Men's Bansom weight bow. We have Jose Aldo going up against Marab de Bolishvili.
Starting point is 00:39:06 You can get the Volusheelie right now for minus 125. Aldo coming back as the dog at plus 105. Fight goes the distance minus 190. Fight does not go plus 155. Let me hear it, Jed. Tell me, I swear to God. Tell me you're taking Aldo. Oh, I'm absolutely taking Aldo.
Starting point is 00:39:23 Wow. Wow. Where do you reside right now? Atlanta, Georgia. Georgia. Not the nation of Georgia. And you are going against our fellow Georgian, Marab de Volachiavili.
Starting point is 00:39:37 My heart resides with Jose Aldo always and forever. You can have your goat. You can have your Aldo. I'm not betting against the fellow Georgian. I'm not betting against a guy that dives headfirst into an ice river. I'm just not going to do that. I'm just not going to do that. I ride with Morai.
Starting point is 00:39:57 Tony, I don't know what your MMA fandom. I don't know. But, Connor, this is one of those things. I'm willing to come out here and say that this is maybe not the smartest pick. ever made that a lot of this is just from the soul from the heart but like it's funny you say all those things because if you were if if you were a fan from you know the mid two thousands you have to love jos a aldo and you just have to pick him and that's what i'm doing here i can give you the technique breakdown because i actually think there's still a really good case that aldo wins this fight on that but
Starting point is 00:40:30 that'd be a lie if i was saying i was picking him because aldo stops takedowns and i actually think marab without takedowns is like a tiger without teeth. He needs him to be effective. I mean, well, that's actually true. You say all those things, I echo them on the opposite side. Maybe this is a dump bet. Maybe this isn't it. But if you've been a fan since
Starting point is 00:40:49 2021, you ride with Moral de Folloshealy in this situation. It's funny how we talk about Camarouzeman being 35 and also Josealdo's 35 in some sort of universe that is. How? How is that? Because Jose Aldo is the youngest champion in UFC history because he's the frigging goat.
Starting point is 00:41:08 The way I looked at in my eyes is Aldo? I always thought it was Jones. So technically John Jones, the actual answer is Aldo because Aldo was WBC champion like five months before Jones would have been. A little tank of couch. I like that. Yeah. He was a Zufa champion the minute he won his belt and he did so much younger than John Jones did. But no one gives him the credit because Zufa was like, we'll keep the WFUF.
Starting point is 00:41:35 you see over here for reasons? Tony, you just said that. In my eyes, Joseo Alto is 42 and Kamar Husman is 29. Like, that's how my brain does it. The fact that they are at the same age is actually insane. It's crazy, right? It's like when you see Tom Brady and then, well, it was like George Blander's somebody at the same age,
Starting point is 00:41:54 and George Bland is like 7 to 7 years old, and Brady's like, how? Like, how are these the same age? How do humans evolve this way? But I just, to me it's tough because Jose Al do He's only been finished. His last, excuse me, his last six defeats have become from UFC champions, right? So that's a great stat.
Starting point is 00:42:12 Marab, Marab is not a UFC champion, even though. Last time I checked. Last time I checked, right? Last time I checked, he's not a UFC champion. And also, Josiahaldos' takedowns, 90% clip of, you know, defending takedowns. Unreal. Unreal takedown defense. Like, that's crazy to me.
Starting point is 00:42:28 So his plus skill, Marab's plus skill, is also completely fighting against Josialdo, probably one of the best in UFC history, right? Like, it's a weird, it's a weird combination of like, how is this fight going to end? How does it play out? How does it play out? Camer Rabland and the takedowns, because what you said, Jed, a tiger without teeth,
Starting point is 00:42:51 that's what he is, dude. The guy averages seven and a half takedowns for 15 minutes. He's just unrelenting, and he almost always gets it done by a decision. If the takedowns are not there, he is going to get pieced apart. by Jose Aldo. I truly believe that.
Starting point is 00:43:09 But, I mean, if he's able to just put him together and get him on the ground, I really don't know how it plays out. I mean, if he can score, it really is if he scores takedowns he wins. I took a lot of heart in this, but I was going to make this bet regardless. That's all I was with Mara. I'm going to ride with my dude. So it just doesn't matter to me. I'm a ride with Aldo.
Starting point is 00:43:28 But as I watched the tape, like, that Malin Marais's fight really made me feel a lot better about my bet because Marais is not as good as Josie Aldo. That's just the answer to that. And certainly not at all of the things. And Marab, I really like Marab. I think he's really,
Starting point is 00:43:45 I think he's going to fight for a title one day. I think he's a really, really good band him weight. He is defensively horrific. I don't know another way to say it. Because he is doing all offense stuff. Like on the feet, Maris just kept clipping him,
Starting point is 00:43:59 not because Marab just kind of doesn't care that he gets hit. Worked out because Marab has an unreal chin, but like, Aldo just is so different, outside of his takedown defense. Aldo's the best defensive fighter in the history of the sport.
Starting point is 00:44:14 Like, I don't think it's close. I think he is the best defensive fighter that May has ever seen. And so on the feet, I don't, Marab doesn't push this like otherworldly pace like Max Holloway did where he just overloads Aldo's defense
Starting point is 00:44:26 and eventually wears him down. I think Aldo is just going to be too defensively good. And if this were a five-round fight, I would honestly feel like Maraub probably wins it. But Josie Aldo is a phenomenal three-round fighter. And I would back him anyway, but my heart is for sure taking my guy to win a decision. He said Marius, not as good as Al-Dahs. You know, L'A M.M.A. M.A. Mawrace beat Aldo. I mean, sure.
Starting point is 00:44:53 But Aldo got a title fight after that because we all know that Marais didn't win that fight. Josie Aldo won that fight in his first fight at Bantam-Wa. Also, if they rematch right now, Joseo would absolutely obliterate. Listen, how we're speaking in hypotheticals? That's just something I can't do. How about a fight in reality? How does that win against Cheeto Vera look?
Starting point is 00:45:16 Yeah. Oh, I didn't even mention that. We were all hot on Cheeto Vera. And who just, who just stunned Cheeto? Cheeto just got rolled up because Jose Aldo's the goat. My man is about to beat Marab. Aljo is going to be Delish. I hope.
Starting point is 00:45:32 And then Aldo versus Aljo. Jose Aldo wins the Bannonweight title, retires on top. What done, son. Greatest of all time. Book it. I do think, whichever way this fight goes,
Starting point is 00:45:45 I think it's going to look like an easy bet. Oh, I agree. I think it's either Marab is just going to crush him with pressure. And it's like, oh, yeah, like he just does that. and like, Aldo's getting old, and like, that's why I wasn't able
Starting point is 00:46:03 to defend the takedowns, or Aldo just styles on him. And, yeah, I just feel like whoever wins, it's, you're going to be like, of course, that was the easiest bet I've ever made.
Starting point is 00:46:13 I mean, I firmly agree with that. All right, those are clearly the three best fights at the night. I feel like we can up the tempo now. Oh, don't you disrespect my guy in the next one? Alexander Romanov,
Starting point is 00:46:27 just a hitter. I thought you were going to say two from now. Big old Harry Hunsucker, main card hunsucker in the house. I'm pretty hype for that one. You said it, though. It's a heavyweight bout. Marcine Tibera going up against Alexander Romanov.
Starting point is 00:46:41 Tibera coming in as a huge underdog, plus 370. Romanov, big favor, minus 4. 60, over under, set at one and a half, over minus 165, under plus 127. You love Romanov? This guy's... Heavyweight is...
Starting point is 00:47:00 It's so weird. Heavyweight is fun. Heavyweight has like multiple youngish rising contenders who are fun. I don't know that this has ever happened in Heavy Weight Division before, so it's awesome. I love Romanov. He, especially this new look, Romanov, who's just Jack Diesel, been hitting the weights, trying to join the all-body beautiful team. Like, he is, he is a monster.
Starting point is 00:47:26 I've never enjoyed Marcine Tabura. I've got two on this. And one of them is, I think we all know, it's going to be the over one and a half rounds. Let's go. It's for science. Just a couple stats for you out there. Tibera's hit over one and a half and 12 of his 15 UFC fights, Romanov and three of his five. So there's a reason this is the favorite odds-wise.
Starting point is 00:47:49 But then the other bet I have is I even feel pretty good about it. I've got Romanov by sub. Now, that line's plus 375. Tabura has never been submitted. B. J.J.J. Blackbelt. But Romanov has already submitted two B.J.J. Blackbelts in, I think, is two of his last three fights.
Starting point is 00:48:08 And just the way his game works is, it's not like traditional grappling. He's doing, you know, forearm chokes and stuff like that. It's, it's a very, very different. And I think to, I think he's going to score take downs at will
Starting point is 00:48:23 against DeBura. And interesting. I think he's going to be able to lock up, like, a Camaro or some kind of Big heavy strong man grip and get the tap. So plus 375, I'm taking a shot on it. I like that, Tony. How would feel about it? When I think about Tabura, I don't feel excited.
Starting point is 00:48:42 I don't know if that's something that goes. I can understand that. Heavy weight, 12 or 15 decisions. No one has ever felt excited about Marcine Tabara. Ever, right? Like, I remember him beating Greg Hardin. I was like, huh, okay. That's Tibera.
Starting point is 00:48:57 it's like it's just one of those guys where you're just like okay I guess we got to put them on the card but like I'm not really too jazzed up about him I think I think I think I think Romanoff's a really interesting prospect and just from a macro perspective for a second if you will indulge me well Tony bringing words that I mean that's what we're here that's what we're here to do is to indulge you a nice little zoomed out zoomed out view of the heavyweight division at one point one of the best divisions in the UFC like right now we've got John Jones kind of circling. Is he going to fight? Is he not going to fight? He looks every from from everybody in the world. The guy looks amazing at heavyweight like outside of Francis outside of gone like who do we really like at heavyweight? Who's the face of heavy the heavy weight division the next year to two to three years? Are we looking at him right now with Romanoff? I'm not sure. I'm not sure. Oh, well the face the face of the heavyweight the next two three years is Tom Aspinall.
Starting point is 00:50:00 Oh, great answer. I could beat Tom Aspinall. But, like, Tom Aspinall is very obviously the face of this division, just from his star power. But, like, I think Romanov has the issue that he's, he's not the, like, most marketable dude or whatever. But if he just keeps taking people down and tapping him, like, I'll get stoked about him.
Starting point is 00:50:18 I'm still stoked about him. Again, going from kind of chubby heavyweight to Jack Diesel heavyweight, that's going to do a lot. It's going to do a lot to boost his credit. and if he just keeps King Kong and people all up and down the mat, I'm in. Yeah, I mean, he's 16 and 0, but for some reason, like, I don't have full confidence in him that, like, he is going to obtain a UFC championship at some point. I mean, he's beating the Jared Vanderas and the Chase Sherman's, obviously,
Starting point is 00:50:48 and he makes it look convincing, you know, the one-espino fight and everything. But I, like, I feel like this will be a nice stepping stone for him. If he comes out here just takes Marcine down at will. I mean, Marcine's got a pretty good take down defense. He's got a pretty decent ground game himself. If he does what you're saying, Jed, if he just comes down, takes him down at will and submits him, I think that will be a nice step in getting me to believe in Romanov. I don't know.
Starting point is 00:51:14 It just like, it feels weird that he's 16 and 0. And I'm kind of looking at him like, don't think he's going to be champion. And nobody cares, right? I feel like nobody really cares 16 and no. In any other place, I'd be like, oh, my God, this guy's the second come. Or a 16 and no heavyweight, period. Like, I just feel like people would be like this dude. And he's ranked now, too.
Starting point is 00:51:32 I think he's like 13th. I'm here telling you this dude is that dude. I'm the guy telling you, get on board. I get it. You don't need to have been on board before because the names just haven't been there. But this is his coming out party. He is going to take down and tap out Marcin Tabura, and then it's to the moon. You know, it's tough because I don't even know who he'd fight at heavyweight right now,
Starting point is 00:51:56 but like, this dude would absolutely bundle Tai Tuivasa, who's in the UFC's Rangling number three or something. Like, he wouldn't mark him. He is, I don't know if he's going to win a title. Like, yeah, I just don't know if he's going to win the title because I think Cyril Gahn is probably the actual future of this division. Maybe Tom Aspinall, it's going to be one of those two dudes. And Curtis Blades is also in the mix.
Starting point is 00:52:21 But, like, I think he is going to fight for a belt. I would stake anything. thing on it at one point. And he's going to be, he's going to be one of those top five guys for at least a few years. You left him. You left Connor. I left Connish speechless. Apparently New York internet hates No Betts Bard, which is quite unfortunate as he is.
Starting point is 00:52:45 He still hasn't moved. He is so shocked. He can't believe that I recognize the greatness of Alexander Romanov. But, Jed, Jed, question for you. And obviously, I'm, I'm new to the program. being my first time here. Go for it. Are you guys tired of talking about John Jones?
Starting point is 00:53:02 Are we ever going to see John Jones? Will we see him fight at heavyweight? Like, what's going to happen there? Oh, we don't really talk about him that much because we're only talking about fights. Yeah, right. I'm fights that actually happen and John Jones isn't one of those people. I am of the opinion that John has entered the zone where I won't believe it until he steps in the cage. Because even if a fight does actually get booked,
Starting point is 00:53:27 like it's johns had a lot of fights have to fall out for numerous reasons and that's outside of the just regular injury thing that can happen so yeah i uh very much on the on the side of i will believe it when john jones fights and not a minute before when he does fight i think he's got a great chance to win the belt but i i'm but you have to actually see him in the octagon before yeah he's got to actually fight someone to win the belt we can't just anoint him All right, so I'm back. Contender number two here to lose internet in this process. This is really getting rough here.
Starting point is 00:54:06 We're doing great. I left when you were saying you would put anything on Ramanaut fighting for a belt eventually. Your house and your car. You were frozen speeches. You would put all of that on Raminov fighting for a belt at some point? He will fight for a belt at some point in his career. I'm not saying he's going to win it. We need to sign up a contract.
Starting point is 00:54:26 Let's put the deed. the deed to the house on the table here. Let's do it. I mean, I'll have forever. It's a long con. It's a long, long bet, but I am just really... He's 31 in a division that's awful and that you can compete in for a decade.
Starting point is 00:54:45 Like, he is going to fight by hook or by crook. He's going to get a title shot at some point because I think he's going to be a top seven dude for the next five years. It's onward and upward from here. I mean, if you look past Marcin-Tibera, I mean, you're getting against, you know, the Giorino's, the Derek Lewis, the Tom Aspen, all the Pavlovich's. He bundles Giorzino.
Starting point is 00:55:05 Derek Lewis probably beats, but Derek Lewis, I think Derek Lewis is probably washed at this point, but also Derek Lewis is... He's just impossible to ever, like, feel confident betting against, but, like, I don't... There are only a couple of dudes in the division that I would comfortably pick Romanov to lose to. All right, well, coming back to the point that you began with, the over... one and a half. I'm also writing that with you for all the reasons. Science. For science. Is that part of the scientific bets? Like, what was it? Flyweight under?
Starting point is 00:55:35 And flyweight under is no longer. We've proven. We've proven. Now we're testing a hypothesis. That's a way of life now. We're now testing the heavyweight over hypothesis. Preliminary results have been good. Okay. We need more data to confirm. Yeah, by testing the hypothesis, if it loses this
Starting point is 00:55:51 weekend, I might never bet another heavyweight over again. That's how we're testing this. I will probably continue to test, but, you know. Yeah, I'm actually jumping in on Jed's experiment, so we will see how it goes. We are both on the over one and a half in that one. Let's keep it moving on the main card. It is a light heavyweight bout. Do I have that right or is this a heavyweight bout?
Starting point is 00:56:14 Tyson-heavyweight. Light-heavyweight. Feels weird to say. Tyson-Pedro going up against Harry Hunsucker. We got main card Hunsucker in the building. Right now, you're not. you can get Pedro for minus 740, Hunsucker at plus 540, over under 1.5 under set at minus 400 over set at plus 300. I mean, this thing is juice to the moon.
Starting point is 00:56:41 Bokies think Tyson Pedro is going to get this one. He's going to get it done early. Yeah, I mean, really the biggest thing that I can say on this one is it is not going to go the distance. Harry Hunsucker, 12 pro fights. He is only... Bold bet, Connor. He has only hit... Over a half round, not one and a half, not two and a half, over a half round two times in his 12 fights.
Starting point is 00:57:03 Ten times he's ended under the two and a half mark and four times it was in the very first minute. Never seen a second round in his pro career. I will be floored if this one were to go to a decision. Weird to see Tyson Pedro this big of a favorite, but Harry Huntsucker is not great. He's at three shots between the contender series and the UFC. He's been finished in the first round in all three of them. Seems like a get-or-get-got guy, right? Oh, he's very much.
Starting point is 00:57:31 I'd say, kill-or-be-killed, get-or-get-got. This dude is a hammer or he is a nail. He's mostly get-got. But I respect him because my favorite hunt-sucker stat, and by favorite, I mean, it's the only stat I know or care about is. He's had 12 fights. All of them finished in the first round, baby. This man is not here to get paid to fight past five minutes.
Starting point is 00:57:59 So he's going to come out. He's going to win or lose. Probably going to lose Tyson Pedro. I took a shot on the Pedro by K.O. Prop at minus 215. Even though most of Pedro's wins have actually come by sub. Another fun fact for old Hunsucker. Five losses, all by Kio.
Starting point is 00:58:17 This guy, he's not getting tapped out. He is getting put to sleep. sleep and Tyson Pedro can do it. I suspect he's going to do it this time. Tyson Pedro is fine parley fodder if you don't mind laying minus 800 or whatever juice on him. But I mean, it's probably worth it for being honest. I really wanted to bet the under or first round just because nine of Pedro's 11 fights have been in the first round.
Starting point is 00:58:46 But the number is so big. It's just not even worth it. It's like actually crazy. I'm curious. I don't think it's out yet. I don't think it was the last time. I'm really wanting to see this over under on the half round. Oh, I would love to see.
Starting point is 00:59:02 I'll take the under on the half round. It's going to be juice. That's going to be the craziest part. I mean, it probably is. It just is, they don't, the bookies are doing it right. They don't want you betting on this fight because they know there's no really good outcome unless you're just going to be a huntsucker
Starting point is 00:59:18 and put your money on losing bet. Yeah, I mean, I think Tyson's probably going to start tomorrow. So before we got on and started the pod, I looked at the guys and I was like, 278, not great. And this fight to me screams, not great when you got three huntsucker. It's definitely not great. But if you like seeing big dudes get knocked out, this is what it is. It's this fight exists entirely to get the main card started off with an early
Starting point is 00:59:53 K.O. And get the spirits high. And they're going to achieve that goal. I mean, that's all you can say about it, really. Yeah. I mean, there's no doubt. If this one, all right, we talked about Ramanov fighting for a belt, you'd stake anything on it.
Starting point is 01:00:08 I will stick anything on this fight, not going to a decision. If this goes to the scorecards, I'm going to hang it up at that point. I'm going to just hang it up. I'm done. I'll never place another. bet in my life if this goes to the scorecards. Tony, I might need a new partner for No Bet's Bard if that happens. So stay on call.
Starting point is 01:00:24 Yeah, cue the highlight, you know, 50 opacity of me saying this over them fighting to a majority decision in this one. Just a hug fest? Just a clinch battle of waiting? Yes. I would have gotten Hun sucked in that situation. That's the main card. Five fights.
Starting point is 01:00:45 Three of them, in my opinion, are fantastic. and we've got an undefeated heavyweight and Romanov going. So it should be at least a fun main card. Now, let's rip through some of these prelims. With you're way less fun. Yeah, so let's be on. Let's be honest. Let's put the emphasis on rip through them.
Starting point is 01:01:02 Lucy Patilova going up against Jan Ngu. Wu right now, Pudolova's going at minus 130. Wu going at plus 110. Fight goes. Minus 325, fight does not go plus 275. I will keep this short and sweet. I said earlier, I loved my. my juice, I love my juiced up one and a halfs. That's what I did here. I think this is probably
Starting point is 01:01:22 going to do a decision, but I just took a nice chalky parlay, you know, just to make the night interesting. 12 of Lucy's last 13 have gone to a decision. She's only been finished once in her whole career. Wu, four of her five UFC fights gone to decision. Kind of started getting over to the Pudolova moneyline side for a second, but decided to stay away. Woo, that record is, is suspect. her pre-UFC stuff. If you combine the 13 fighters record that she fought before the UFC, 13 fighters combined record of 9 and 8. And one girl was 8 and 2 who knocked Wu out.
Starting point is 01:02:01 11 of the 12 fighters, she won against. Zero pro wins at the time of the fight. Is that good? 11 of the 12. Yeah, not great. Not great. I mean, she won him. She got the depth.
Starting point is 01:02:15 She did win them. All you can do is be who's in front of you, right? That is what they say. That is what they say. That's a true point. But no, I'm just sticking with the one and a half. That's all I need on this one, if I'm being totally honest with you. I'm a sucker.
Starting point is 01:02:31 And I decided, I don't know why. God knows why I watched for this fight. Oh, yeah. Which was just an awful thing. Because when I initially looked at the lines, I thought, oh, Pudelot, it probably wins that. She's, they've both, neither of them have beaten anybody good, but at least Pudolo was
Starting point is 01:02:51 lost to better people than Woo was lost to. But then I just saw a friend of mine say that he thought there was some value on Wu. She was like, all right, I'll go watch some tape. I don't know if there's a dumb bet or not, but both of these women are just really bad is the answer. And I think this fights like, 50-50 and frankly
Starting point is 01:03:14 Wu is like more aggressive than Poudalova and in a fight where neither of them are likely to do anything good I think just being more aggressive means she should be the favorite like she is going to I mean that fight against Mary Brana Silva
Starting point is 01:03:29 she brought the action I think she got tuned up for big stretches of it but she made it a really good fight over a fighter who's probably better than Pudolova is like so I'm taking the underdog bed on Wu just be, I think she is going to push the pace a little more. I think she's probably a little more athletic, more explosive, and that this fight is going to be fun in the way that just whoever
Starting point is 01:03:55 is coming forward will end up winning it in the judge's scorecard. I think it's probably going to be Wu. All right. I'm going to take your word on the tape study. And I have to say, I have to come out and say, I feel like if the table's returned, you might, you might be shaming me here. Oh, I preface this by saying this is probably a stupid thing to have done. I got some heavy shame. What fight was that? My boy, Dante O'May's going against Tom Di. I got shamed hard for that one.
Starting point is 01:04:24 Also, yeah, your boy lost that fight, so my shame was correct. Who's saying Wu's going to come out here and win, though? Well, I mean, we'll see if Wu comes out and wins, then I will be a genius. So that's how it works. You were shaming heavy pre-result. I was, and because I see the future, Connor. I saw what would happen. Wow.
Starting point is 01:04:46 There's an Olympic wrestler, and Don't tell Mays sucks. So even though Humby also kind of sucks. Yeah, you didn't bet Humby with all this stuff. Yeah, I decided to be smart and not bet on that fight at all. I'm admitting I'm being stupid by betting on this fight. All I'm saying. I don't say. I don't shame around here.
Starting point is 01:05:03 I don't shame around here. This is an open space. You're free to bet on whatever you want. I believe you're free to bet. I'm free to shame you. I will say, I think your over bet is excellent because I think there's even value in the over two and a half because both these women largely go to decision. Wu's done four in her last five.
Starting point is 01:05:20 Pudilova's her last seven all went to the cards. So I think there's over and two and a half, certainly, and your one and a half bet. I think that's a good bet. All right. I know you're chomping at the bit. Tony, I know you spent hours breaking this thing down and give it to us, man. See, this is what I love about what you guys do versus what we do over. on the Levitart show side, like, you guys are breaking down fighters that some people,
Starting point is 01:05:42 not me, of course, I know these fighters, but some people have never heard of, right? And like, you guys- Who hasn't heard of Lucy Putalov? Well, that's what I'm trying to say, right? A giant majority of the world has not. Come on. So you guys are breaking down fighters at such an elite level where on the MMA hangout, we're more of like, hey, who are these people?
Starting point is 01:06:06 Let's have fun. love about coming on this show, obviously it's my first time, but what I love hearing this show, it's like, man, you guys really know people, huh? That's exciting. I mean, I don't know how you don't know. I mean, Octagon Prime, like Lucy Poodlova. She's out there putting in work. Is that the same girl that Connor had the shirt or was that a different? Oh, no. Come on. Lupido, Dinas. Come on. Let's show some respect around these parts. My bad. My bad. The part, I was confused, crossed my wires, Lou, Wu, Lucy. Anyway.
Starting point is 01:06:42 I'm going to go the over. They obviously both go to decisions a lot. I'm going to take the over two and a half. That's easy. I love it. I love it. I love it. It's just that easy.
Starting point is 01:06:49 Great bet. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Prelimbs. Men's featherweight out. It is Sean Woodson going up against Luis Salada. Watson at minus 3.20. Sal Donna at plus 265.
Starting point is 01:06:59 Fight goes minus one tonny. Fight does not go minus 110. I'm using Sean Woodson as a parlay piece. sniper, three inch height, six inch reach advantage. I mean, last time out he just styled all over Colin England before finishing him. You know, Anglin's not the best fighter in the world, but he did look fantastic there. I just think this is a good matchup for him. I think this is going to be the best striker that's Al-Donna's face in the UFC to this point.
Starting point is 01:07:23 I think he's going to try and use his pressuring style. And the reach and the height and the striking advantage is going to work out for Sean Woodson. And he's going to be able to catch him. So I do like him to get it done, just outpointing him over the 15 minutes in a decision. win. I accept your breakdown. I just did, I didn't feel good enough to, to make a bet here just because I'm not entirely sold on Woodson, but go for it.
Starting point is 01:07:48 Y'all, uh, you want me to break it down here? Want me to give you a behind the scenes? I love, love BTSs. Uh, Sean Woodson, um, STL Sniper 34 on Instagram, uh, follows me. Good follow or? Good follow. Uh, he has been. been known to, yeah, he's a good follow.
Starting point is 01:08:07 You heard it here first. What I'm hearing is he follows you, so you're backing him for the rest of your days. And he's been known to, you know, like a picture every once in a while, comment every once in a while. Oh, damn. I put my picks out on Instagram. I feel like it'd be a real bad look if I was backing Luis Saldon in this situation. Oh, see, I just thought it was you're here for who's here for you, you know?
Starting point is 01:08:35 you rep your boys, he's wrapping you with the likes. You're going to wrap him with your hard-earned dollars. I am doing that. He's going to see that and he's going to be like, let's go. Connor's on me. I wasn't fully convinced I needed to win this fight, but now that I know he's on me, I got to win this fight. Well, Luis Sal Don, I know you're out there listening
Starting point is 01:08:55 because everyone listens to No Bet's Bard, just A-plus programming. You can come to me. Follow me on Twitter, on Instagram, throw me a shot, hit me a DM, and I'll back you and then me and Connor can go to war over this unremarkable featherweight bout in the prelims of UFC 278. Yeah, it should be a good one. All right, let's keep it moving. We are sticking to our word and we are ripping through these prelims right now. Next up, it is a women's flyway bout, Marina Maverick, going up against Shauna Young Maverick right now going at minus 490, young at plus 390. Fight goes minus 115. Fight does not. Minus 115. You don't, you don't only see that
Starting point is 01:09:35 women's fights the even money line on uh goes and doesn't go uh tony you want to kick us off you got anything on this one super chalk on maverick i feel like this entire uh card has been really chalky and every time i go to look for a bet that i like i'm like oof the juice is horrible here like i don't it is a very chalky card i'm looking i'm looking at maverick right now on the draft king sportsbook book app and money lines got her at five minus five 20 wow that's like that's that's that's that's It's moved 30 more points in the last like 45 minutes. Right, exactly. So I'm looking at it.
Starting point is 01:10:10 I'm like, I guess, I think obviously she's the better fighter. But at 520, I'm probably just going to stay away from that. I'll just watch it on the Pilands be like, all right. God bless everybody. I don't blame you. That's fair. I think that that's a smarter choice, but I chalked her up right on into a parlor. Of course.
Starting point is 01:10:28 I do, too. She's going to win. I am a chalk donkey and I will own that. Well, you really do love the chalk more than anyone I know. Yeah. You just... I'm not afraid to admit it either. I mean, that's...
Starting point is 01:10:43 You're taking a lot of chalk here. It's probably going to pay off for you. I certainly hope this one does, because I've got her in a four-leg. Ooh. I mean, yeah, dude, I do you like... The four-legs never miss, so it's easy. Never miss, yeah. I mean, parlay's period, are the most sound betting strategy.
Starting point is 01:10:58 Smart bets, certainly when you add four legs to it. Yeah, I mean, I think she's just going to rag doll young here. If you just look at it, she's been taken down in every one of her UFC fights seven times over her three losses in the UFC. Like, Maverick. Stephanie Eggers took her down. Stephanie Eggers sucks. Three times. Two times, three times.
Starting point is 01:11:18 She took her down multiple times. Yeah, and I mean, if you look at Maverick, she's three and two in the UFC, but her losses are to Macy Barber and Aaron Blanchfield. Two up-incomeers, nothing to be ashamed of there. Young is one in three. take like Godinez like I wish I could have given this
Starting point is 01:11:36 pep top to lupita before the fight Miranda just take the path of least resistance just go out there blast tak downs
Starting point is 01:11:43 and just get it done finish decision it's your world once it hits the mat do you guys think that fighters go into certain fights and are like
Starting point is 01:11:52 I want to do something different right sometimes they definitely do the path the path of least resistance is I'm just going to
Starting point is 01:12:00 take it to the ground pulverizer and that's it. But you think she's like, you know what? Not a super tough opponent. Let me work more on my stand-up game. Let me try and do this and that. Oh, I think they do that for sure. Yeah, because it seems easy and clear cut of like,
Starting point is 01:12:15 I feel like Kabib was great at this, right? He's just like, I'm going to take you to the floor and I'm going to fucking kill you. Right? He didn't really want to do much else. And I feel like people are just trying to, in Spanish, I don't know how many Spanish social we have here. It's called immentando, right? where you're inventing.
Starting point is 01:12:31 I'm just going to kind of do this and do that and maybe mess around here, messed around there, maybe not take it to the ground as much as I should. I feel like that happens a lot. So I think some of that definitely happens. Honestly, I think far, what happens far more is to be a professional fighter, you have to be an absolutely crazy person who, like, doesn't, who lives in their own reality. And if you ever talk to any fighter, they all believe they are the best in the world. like despite all evidence to the contrary for for most of them like I am I guarantee you that
Starting point is 01:13:05 Shaney Young is just like yeah I'm the best fighter in the world and like believes it to her core and even though like it is objectively false but she she just believes it because all of them do and so that same thing carries on to like Lupi Godin has hit mitts in the gym and is like oh I'm a fucking kick ass striker now like I'm a fucking kick ass striker now like I rule it this. Like I'm just going to go put the hands on her. And like she just thinks that and gets in there. And it's really hard to tell how you're doing in fights if you're not like clearly getting your ass kicked.
Starting point is 01:13:38 Yeah. And so then you're just like, oh, because you feel like you're hitting the other person a lot and you are. And so you're like, I'm obviously winning. I'm hitting them a bunch. And then at the end your coaches are telling you like, no, please go take her down. And do that. Then you just forget because you're in the suck at that point. And then it's it just is what it is.
Starting point is 01:13:57 And Lupita coming out and I'm like immediately like hurting Angela. Oh, that always gets you to. Did no favors for her trying to go to the wrestling. She was like, I, this is. It was validation of everything she thought like, oh, I can put the hands on her. And then she does and she almost gets her out. It's like, oh, I got this. And it happens all the time.
Starting point is 01:14:19 I mostly think it is to some extent you see fighters doing it because they are working in their game or leveling. But I think most of it is just. They just truly think that they can win the fight this way. And that's where they start going because you have to be an actual crazy person to be a professional cage fighter. And to your point, Tony, you mentioned Khabib. Like, I feel like it is a characteristic of a great champion to be willing to go out there and just stick to a game plan. Look at Israel at Asana. Self-awareness is huge to be to the championship set.
Starting point is 01:14:53 Like, just look at Izzy. Like, he was a fan favorite now, you know, everyone talks. about how boring he is because he goes out there. He knows what he needs to do to win the fights, and he retains the championship. And he has for a while now because he's willing to stick to that game plan. I mean, yeah. Every champion, like every great champion has gotten the same knocks on them at one point or another
Starting point is 01:15:12 because it's just like, yeah, why would I do the dumb thing? I'm going to do the smart thing. I'm not a moron. Yeah. I'm not dumb, so I'm not going to do the dumb thing. And it makes them less fun than people who just do the dumb thing all the time. All right. Two more fights. The sun is setting here in New York. It's starting to get dark in this studio, and I honestly have no idea where the lights are. I love the two more fights because they're the easiest breakdowns you ever had in our entire lives, Connor.
Starting point is 01:15:38 Easiest breakdowns. Amir Al-Bazi going up against Francisco Figurato. It is the little brother of Davison Figurato. Right now you can get Al-Bazi at minus 4-10. Figurato at plus 330. Over under. Over under. Set at two and a half. over minus 150 under plus 120. I have a question for you, Connor. Please. What weight class is this bout being contested in? Uh-oh. I think I said it. It's a men's flyweight bout.
Starting point is 01:16:08 Uh-oh. And what do we know about men's fly-weight bouts? The hell always go under, dude. They're about a month. They have been going under. So the experiment continues. Will this be our first loss? I don't know.
Starting point is 01:16:23 Never can be. So, like, we joke about this a lot, but these two flyweight fights, I actually really, like, I actually do like the unders in these situations. Like, I feel like Figuero is a guy that can go out there and either get the finish or get finished himself. And then the next one, Victor Alta Marano and Daniel De Silva, I mean, come on, dude, come on, you're going to lob this up to us. DeSilva never seen a third round. 12 of his 14 fights have ended in the first. He's the hammer. he's the nail. He doesn't like going to decisions. He doesn't even like going to third rounds. If he goes to a second, he's honestly having a bad time. You're going to lob that up to us. They opened it a plus money. Are you kidding me? Like, with that under two and a half,
Starting point is 01:17:07 Altamirano, Daniela Silva, under two and a half, Albaazi, Figuero, the experiment continues. It's no experiment. This is not, this is, look, the heavyweight over is an experiment. This is a way of life. And I, it is the way of life that I choose to live. myself by flyweight unders never lose and they're given us two of them you know what just i don't agree with it fundamentally opposed to parlaying plus money might might just f around and do it this time because it's it's a lock it's a certified lock to win do other people know about this or is it just you guys are you guys like uncovering like we found it we we are the discoverers of the ancient wisdom of flyweight unders wow
Starting point is 01:17:53 And we're trying to share it to the world. Oh, it's been shed. Geniuses, man. I'm telling you, it's just three geniuses. Just cutting it up. I mean, us three. This guy's about to nail Luke Rockhold plus 260.
Starting point is 01:18:05 We're going to hit a couple more flyweight unders. Like, you guys are getting access. The fact that this is free is insulting to all three of our IQs right here. It shouldn't be. And that's the way it goes, man. If these two hit, I'm going to be a problem. I'm going to be insufferable if both of these go under. I swear to God.
Starting point is 01:18:28 Yeah, this is the cult of Flywood Unders, baby. We're starting it right here. We've been starting it. And this is our coming out party. Now we get two of them. We had two on the other card, but we weren't all that sold in the main event. Four and a half is different. We should have just believed in it fully in, about to hit two unders.
Starting point is 01:18:47 It's going to be a good day. Who did it start with? Schnell and Sumidharji. I don't remember. I don't know, but it's, I think we are four and no so far on the evening. I think it was before Schnell, because I think you were the one who brought it to the table. Maybe it was at 276? I got to remember.
Starting point is 01:19:06 You definitely would have brought it to the table. Like, this is obviously a great bet, flyweight under. I think that's literally how it started. Like, yeah, what idiot would ever take an under on a flywood under? And now, like, I hate to say it. They've also, like, cashed, like, relatively easy. Like, who is it? Perez gets finished in the first round.
Starting point is 01:19:27 O'Day Osborne gets finished in the first round. Schnell and Sumadarji's second round, but it was absolutely crazy. It was also two and a half for that under. So there was a ton of time in that as well. The Kai one, we weren't on that, but like that one was a little more dicey. Four and a half and it was in the third. Like they've just been caching. Wow.
Starting point is 01:19:49 Hopefully it continues this weekend. I like the idea of a big conference room, right? And you guys walk in, all the executives, all of the MMA world is kind of convening in this huge conference room. And you guys kind of walk in a little blustered and like, guys, we got something. Everybody kind of turns around, like the entire room turns around. It goes on you and you're like, this might be crazy,
Starting point is 01:20:13 but flyweight unders. I don't know. We got something there. We made a PowerPoint about it. Here, let us show you our investment strategy. gee, it's flyweight unders. It's like shark take. The worst part is, yes, literally, we should go on Sharktake and present this to Mark Cuban.
Starting point is 01:20:29 What's the business? There isn't one. We just bet on flyweight unders in the UFC. No, the worst part is we can't do a PowerPoint because, like, statistically speaking, like, 54%. Don't bring that nonsense here. 54% of flyweight fights go to a decision. But we're not here to think about that. That was before we found the gospel.
Starting point is 01:20:54 And now that we have it, now we know what happens. I'm not kidding. If both these hit and we don't have a UFC event next week and you're going to give me a whole other week to stew on this, like, I'm definitely going to lose some followers on social. I'm going to really start getting some haters. We've got plenty of weeks to stew on it. Because the Paris card, I mean, they don't want us to make money.
Starting point is 01:21:16 There are no fly weights at UFC Paris for us to be. be making. They do have heavyweights, though. We can continue the hypothesis. I get to continue that. Yes. And we do, uh, actually no, it looks like we don't have anything on 279 either as far as flyweight. It's looking, looking ahead right now. Good. Yeah. We, I mean, we're going to have a lot of time to celebrate the gospel of flyweight unders, uh, until the next one happens, which is not for a while, it appears. Jeez. That's all right. That's all right. That means I'll just get a few more paychecks and be able to put more money the next time they roll around. That is true.
Starting point is 01:21:51 All right, so that does it for breaking down the fights. But last time we had smart man New York Rick on, ride with Rick. Who did he go with? He went with something that we were both against. He stared us right in the face and told us the F off. It was UFC 276 as I pull it up on the internet. It was Julia Storillarenko. That was the ride with Rick.
Starting point is 01:22:15 And it cashed easily. She gets an arm bar in the first round. It did cash easily. 42 seconds in. I say that to say this, the people need to tail Tony. I need to tail Tony. That's right.
Starting point is 01:22:29 Jed needs to tail Tony. I need a bet that I'm not on yet. And it can't be Luke Rockhold because I'm already on Paolo Costa. What are we feeling? Is there anything you, the wisdom of Tony that you can give to us? So on the show, on the Levitart show,
Starting point is 01:22:45 you can follow us at Levitart show, wherever you get podcasts. Please do. Fantastic show. Great show. a segment called Winning Wednesday where our soulmates at Draft Kings have us put together a parlay of the sports that are happening. And we actually, for the MMA hangout, we put a three-leg parlay together every, you know, pay-per-view UFC fight. And we are over at the moment. I love it. We're over at the moment, but we were really close. That means you do. That just means you do. Yes. That exactly what it means. That's how math works. We got robbed when Rose
Starting point is 01:23:19 Nama Yunes lost to Carlos Sparza. We were robbed of a three in a row when the I poke, O'Malley had the eye poke on Munoz. Robbed? Robbed there. So really you haven't lost yet. You've just been robbed. We've been robbed many, many times.
Starting point is 01:23:36 How did you get robbed in that one? It was no contest. It was no contest, but it broke up our parlay because I think we had Izzy and we had, who else was on that card? That shouldn't break up your parlay, though. It did. They didn't count it. The thing is, Jed, on the show.
Starting point is 01:23:49 show, like, if you don't do it for real, you get dragged. So it's like, we didn't really do it for real. But I say all that to say, we have a winning Wednesday bet where I gave, they said, all right, you have to fade Tony. Whatever Tony says, we're going to take the opposite. And I gave a killer parlay in baseball. Just so we're clear, fade Tony has been a winning betting strategy for me when it comes to Tony Ferguson as well. Fade Tony, been cashing tickets for a while now. I'm not here to fade Tony, though.
Starting point is 01:24:17 I'm here to tail Tony. I'm going to give you the real one. Yes. I'm going to give you the real one. And we talked about it. But, and I want you guys to take look and obviously through the annals of UFC history, you guys, I don't think. Anticipation is killing me. More than what you guys know. Outside of tough champion, Mohamed Usman and the Diaz brothers, is there another brother of a UFC fighter that has ever been good?
Starting point is 01:24:45 It's a very small list. I mean, Dan Miller was pretty good. He was a fine fighter. Okay. But largely the brothers, largely siblings, one of them is way better. I mean, look at the Shevchenko sisters. In general, it is very tough to have two good fighting siblings. That's why I'm all over Amir al-Bazi.
Starting point is 01:25:07 Okay. All, I know we talked about them. Straight. Money. You don't know straight. Minus 450? Minus 450. Okay.
Starting point is 01:25:15 I'm giving me the stone. He's only minus 410 on Draft Kings right now. There you go. There you go. I actually like that. If you're going to come in with that type of mentality, I've already got them in two parles, so I will be tailing Tony.
Starting point is 01:25:28 If you're coming in telling me stone cold lock that we get to berate you in person and online, if it loses? I'll come in to the next show. I'll come in next show and you guys can just clown me for five minutes. I won't say a word. You just laugh at me. But I'm going with the sibling narrative
Starting point is 01:25:44 that one sibling is just clearly not as good as the other sibling. And right now, you're looking at a good way. And it's just not working. I don't love the line, but I love the mentality. Herbert Burns is also decent. But yeah, I love the mentality. I'm in on this mentality.
Starting point is 01:25:59 It's all about narrative. It's all how you can spin the story, right? It's not about the lines. Forget about the lines. Yeah, that's how I bet. It's about the lines. That's what I always say. You're talking in shock, my playing dogs, and my playing winners.
Starting point is 01:26:11 Yeah. You're talking to the guys who invented flyweight unders never lose. We know about narratives. We're in on it. You'll see how dark it is in it? I do. This is incredible. I'm going to need a flashlight to get out of here.
Starting point is 01:26:24 I think they have those on your phone, though, so you're okay. This is ridiculous. I mean, this is crazy. Who knew it got this dark this early in New York City? I mean, it's crazy. I thought this was the place that never slept. All right. Amir al-Bazi.
Starting point is 01:26:39 That is the stone cold, cannot lose. Tony will quit his job, divorce his wife, sell his house for no way. sell his house for no money if it loses lock of the week. Yeah, absolutely, 100%. No pressure. I will walk away from everything and become a vagabond and just live out in the keys where there's only vagabonds and fugitives. Yes, not a bad place to do it.
Starting point is 01:27:02 We'll get a nice laminated cardboard sign. I bet Amir al-Bazi. You know why I can't. Yeah, and lost. You know why. Because everyone knows Amir al-Bazi, obviously. Everyone knows Amir al-Zi. Much like Lucy would love the world is aware.
Starting point is 01:27:20 That's the one I'm a shirt for, right? Yes, exactly. And not only do they know Amir al-Bazi, they also know what happened at UFC 278 in Salt Lake City on the early prelims. They know what happened. I mean, who isn't tuning into Salt. Salt Lake City early prelims, sign me up. Weird place to have it, right?
Starting point is 01:27:39 Super weird. I mean, very weird. Okay, just making sure. Just making sure it wasn't me. Super weird. No, it is weird. It's kind of an odd card. And then we get the Diaz-Hamsat one next, which that is pretty much carrying that bad board.
Starting point is 01:27:52 Then we got to go a month and a half until 280. Diaz-Hams-out, we're going to obviously talk about it in two weeks or whatever. That's one of the worst fight cards that's ever been put together. I might be at the fight. Just throwing that out there. Sick. I mean, you get to see Hams out in person. That's what we're doing it for.
Starting point is 01:28:09 I've always, I mean, actually, no, I was going to say I've always wanted to go to a public execution, but that's very macab and not true at all. But yeah, you can enjoy that. I just really want to see Hamzat. Yeah, dude. I don't blame you, bro. Hamzot is the man. Like the man.
Starting point is 01:28:29 YouTube has a lot of videos of just like bears, just mauling shit. You just watch that. It's basically the same thing as what's going to happen at 279. All right. That's a preview. That's for our worries on September 10th, I believe it is.
Starting point is 01:28:44 We still have to get through UFC Paris before we even start thinking about Hamza Tchamayev and him stamping his title shot in the welterweight division. That is 278, though. That is 278. Salt Lake City. My bets for this. I have Marab de Valishvili plus 145, Tibero Romanov, over one and a half minus 150, Palacostas, inside the distance minus 160, the Silva-Alta-Mirano under two and a half plus 115.
Starting point is 01:29:10 Albaazi, Figuero, under two and a half plus 140. A lot of props. Prop heavy week. Then I hit some parlayas. Let me just rip through them. Maverick Woodson, Usman, plus 124. Maverick Woodson, Usman Albazi, Pedro, plus 228. And then I just went real chalky, square, loser, degenerate parlay.
Starting point is 01:29:30 Pacheco in the Pfell, Larissa Pacheco. Pedro Hunsucker doesn't go the distance. Usman Edwards over one and a half. Pudilova, Wu, over one and a half, minus 650. That pays out of minus $37. Those are all my plays, obviously riding with Tony's Stone Cold Lock of the Week. It's the Stone Cold Lock of the Week. You have to.
Starting point is 01:29:52 Century. I think people are, I was going to say decade. We've now up to Century. Lock of the Century. Yeah. I had one other lock of the Century earlier on Lebitard show. I actually gave it was Angels over the Athletics and it was the Locker the Century. Stone Cold.
Starting point is 01:30:09 The Angels won in 12 by one run. I mean, winning is winning. matter how you get it done, bro. It just matters that you get it done. I mean, this is getting ridiculous. Have we ever seen true darkness? Have we ever seen total darkness? Because I think I'm sitting in it right now.
Starting point is 01:30:24 I wish we had video for the listeners. I literally can't see you. I cannot believe. All you can see is like the Nike swoosh in my neck. This is from the computer light. What happens if I turn the computer light off? Oh, you're in pitch if you turn the computer light. This is total darkness.
Starting point is 01:30:38 Behind you. I can't see anything else. People are like, oh, in space. It's total silence. its total black darkness. I'm experiencing it right now here in New York City. Turned off the laptop light and I, in fact, can see nothing. This is insanity.
Starting point is 01:30:53 All right, let me close this down then real fast. I have prop bets on Usman by K.O. plus 275. And I'm with you on the Leon Edwards by decision at plus 1,000. Oh, yeah, forgot to mention that. Thank you. Got Polar Costa inside the distance at minus 150. My man, Jose, the king of Rio Aldo, plus 105. Again, the Romanov by sub plus 375.
Starting point is 01:31:16 Romanov-Tibera over, one and a half, because we think that heavyweight overs might also never lose, but we're not certain. I've got a Tyson-Pedro by K.O. at minus 2.15. I've got Wu Yan at plus 110. Of course, I've got the two flyweight unders, minus 165 and plus 120 on that, respectively. And then I got a four-leggar.
Starting point is 01:31:38 I got Usman Edwards over two and a half. I got Romanov. I got Miranda Maverick. and I got Poodle-Lov-W over 2.5. All that pays out at plus 150 for you. There it is. UFC 278, Salt Lake City, Utah. Couldn't think of a better place to have this one. World to wait championship on the line.
Starting point is 01:31:58 Is it coming home? Is it coming home? They couldn't do it in the Euros. Maybe they can do it with Leon Edwards, get the champ for the UK. We will find out. It would be incredible. And I am happy to say we will not be back next week because there is no UFC event.
Starting point is 01:32:13 We are ending the 12-week run. It has finally come to an end. No UFC event next week. And I personally am a little bit excited to take one week off, you know, just get the brain right. Huge shout out to Tony. Tony, thank you so much. Do I even do it?
Starting point is 01:32:28 Do I even go for it again? Yeah, let it rip. Coladio? Yeah, I nailed it, dude. There it is. I'm a natural. You would have to learn it. And I would be on the prelims getting housed by somebody.
Starting point is 01:32:38 I'm a natural at this point. I'd be a light heavy. weight. I think I can get down to 205. I'm probably like walking around way maybe 215, 2.17. I get down to 205, fight light heavy. What do you think? DJ came in studio yesterday. He's pretty thick.
Starting point is 01:32:54 I think I could cut down to fly weight just use a huge reach of damage. Get down to 125 on the scales, you know? I can't see you, but I know you were flexing. Yeah, you saw the flex. I mean, we'll go max brightness here. Oh, there he is. Oh, the kids back.
Starting point is 01:33:11 God, I look like, I look like a guy doing a producer job on a local news station at 2 a.m. I mean, you're doing great. We've talked way too long. Yes, we have talked way too long. That's it. Tony, thank you so much. You know where to catch them.
Starting point is 01:33:26 Levittar show. M.MA hangout, critically acclaimed, award-winning MMA hangout. That's it, 278. See you in two weeks. Love you guys.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.