MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Lerone Murphy Make The Jump to Contender Against Josh Emmett at UFC Vegas 105?
Episode Date: April 2, 2025The UFC is heading back to the APEX. This Saturday, the UFC returns home to the world’s mightiest APEX for UFC Vegas 105, headlined by a featherweight matchup between Josh Emmett and Lerone Murphy.... It’s not the best card ever but nevertheless, No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by the Action Network’s Billy Ward to discuss the fallout from UFC Mexico and their respective journeys with The Climb. Then it’s on to UFC Vegas 105, where the boys discuss whether Murphy can make the leap to contender status against Emmett, what underdogs are worth a play this week, who are the best options if you’re doing your own Climb on Saturday, and more. Tune in for episode 123 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Billy Ward: @PsychoWard586 Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.
What is up, y'all?
We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard, and it's, oh man, it's so exciting.
It's arguably the best one we're ever going to have because we're talking about UFC Vegas 105,
so you know it's going to be spectacular.
That is right, this Saturday, Josh Emmett, Lorone Murphy, a bunch of other fights that aren't particularly great.
But in a twist of fate, decided because of this.
card is so bad uh reached out to our old friend billy ward said billy hey i'm giving you about
six hours notice want to hop on and talk about this this poopy card because there's some things
about last week we could talk about which are much more fun so welcome to the show everybody you know
him you love them the action networks billy ward billy how we doing yeah i mean i couldn't let you
face this horrible card alone like that just seems like it'd be really mean to you to try to have to
carry this whole show on your own so doing pretty good enjoyed last week as you referenced
referenced. Not expecting to enjoy this week as much.
Yeah, last week was fun. That's really why I reached out to have you on because things are,
things are footbill. Things are happening right now. Don't you worry. We will ultimately get
to Vegas 105 discussion. I'll be up front. I don't actually have that much action on Vegas 105 this
week because a lot of the fights I just don't feel really confident in or I'm just not that
focused about. But first, we got to talk about Mexico.
and let's talk big picture because,
Billy,
it was a damn fine week last week.
Brandon Moreno gets the thing done.
Very, very good performance against Steve Erseg.
4946 is across the board.
Some people out there I saw it had a bit more generous scoring for Steve Ersec.
I think ultimately the right guy won.
How do you come down on last week's main event?
Yeah, I agree with you,
right guy won.
The way I saw it,
both two and three could have kind of gone either way.
I don't think either guy could be mad with losing those rounds.
If I'm a judge,
And this is not at all how they're actually supposed to do it.
But if we've got two back-to-back 50-50 rounds, I'm giving you each one and just letting the rest of the fight decide it.
So by my entirely made-up system here, it was judged accurately.
Again, I know that's not actually how we do it.
But, you know, here we are.
I actually think that is legitimately how that happens.
That's not how you're told to do things, obviously.
But it's sort of human nature to be like, okay, this round is close.
But I, you know, I guess I'll favor Brandon Moraine.
know, the subsequent round is equally close.
Just give it to the other guy.
I think that that is human nature.
I do that all the time when I'm scoring.
So I'm right there with you.
Some other big outcomes, Manuel Torres, just runs over Drew Dober as Mike Beltran
tries to get him killed.
So that was pretty fun.
A bunch of other awesome things.
But more importantly, Bill, the reason you're here today, a big thing happened.
A very, very big thing happened last week.
The climb, Billy, halfway.
We are at the midway point.
I never thought I'd be here.
15 up, 15 to go as we cashed two bets.
And we were chatting about it, basically the whole event in real time.
One of the more stressful events I've watched in recent memory as I had Rapha
Garcia and Raoul Roses Jr.
And both of them at various points in time really looked like they did.
not want to win their bouts, but they ultimately did.
And Billy, we are at the halfway mark of the climb.
Never thought I'd be here, bud.
Yeah, I was really nervous for you looking at this card, you know, Sunday, this coming card,
I should say.
It didn't look like there'd be any climb candidates, but we threw a couple in there at the last
minute, still not lines up everywhere.
So I'm very excited for you.
And for myself, I'm doing one as well.
I'm about half as far as you are.
I shared Raffa Garcia with you.
How were you feeling on that one?
Because we were talking through it.
as it was going.
And I got to tell you, I
wrote it, I was like, we're done.
It's over.
I was so convinced.
I mean, it was pretty clearly
one, one after two rounds.
And it feels like the guy who wins the second round
typically comes out on top, right?
Like he won the second round, he's coming on.
Not how it played out last time.
So I don't know that we necessarily deserved it.
And wasn't even one.
Two judges at 3027.
So like, had I known that,
I would have been, I would have like,
okay, but I, after I was so,
like, oh my God, Garcia's just, he just quit fighting.
I was like, what are you doing?
Like, you're winning.
Every time you walk forward, you're winning.
You're just retreating a bunch and not doing anything.
I was losing my mind watching it because I didn't even want to do it.
Like, I asked the Magic 8 ball and it was like, it's fine.
You can trust in Rolfo Garcia.
He bombed out my previous freaking climb campaign.
And I was like, okay.
And I was just staring at it.
I was staring at it in my hand saying, I can't believe this is how I'm going.
going out and miraculously we did not.
So, uh, I mean, the generous reading of that is he knew he was at altitude.
He was confident he banked the first round.
We'll just take it easy in the second round.
You know, you win one and three.
You win the fight.
Again, when I say it was one one, it very much should have been one one.
I don't know those scorecards were like, we'll take it.
I'm not going to argue.
But yeah, that was that was a lot.
I'm not totally emotionally recovered from that.
But I'm looking forward to doing it again because I think the two.
obvious candidates this week are not going to like dominate and get a first minute knockout.
So it's going to be a little bit more sweaty.
If we go there again, I'm still on the fence myself.
Oh, real quick, I meant to say, I shared this with you privately, but for any fellow climbers
out there, what I did is I put a live bet against Rafel Garcia at the end of the first round.
It was like plus 800 on his opponent just enough to cover my next attempt at the climb.
So I thought that was a decent way to hedge.
you can have your next climb payout ready to go in case it fails you know obviously it'll take away a little bit from the final payout but at 10 or 15 bucks an event that was worth the psychological cushion that it provided for me absolutely been worth the psychological cushion at that point and uh frankly i you were lucky because at least rava garcia like i you were done early and that's where i was like okay but then i had like four fights and then i was immediately put through
more emotional trauma as Raul Roses Jr. held a man for seven minutes and refused to do anything.
And Vince Morales, like, I saw some people out there score for him. I think that that's generous,
but I don't think it's necessarily insane. It's very, very generous, but like, it was a very
stressful day. And at the end of that day, I came to a conclusion. I'm not cashing out.
I can't cash out. The climb is for 30. I want to be very, very clear about this.
However, this is my project.
I can kind of do whatever the hell I want.
And if we're being honest right now, I'm having a bad year.
I'm down 15 units on the year.
The climb actually is over that.
The climb would have me like five, actually six-ish units up on the year,
where we're at on just the climb if I stopped doing it right now and just reset.
Not going to do that, Bill.
Can't do that.
I still believe in this mission.
I do think we can sort of 21 this, where you know,
you play the game 21 and you if you go over you go back down to 11 right like you don't you don't have to
restart at the top and so that is what i've decided to do i'm going to take uh a few a few hundred
dollars out nothing major just going to take 400 bucks out that will cover all my this is this is the
fourth iteration of the climb so that i'm now back to square one on all my previous climb bets
uh the total climb bank roll is still fairly robust right uh for this iteration the the next
next step instead of being 2100 will be 1,700 and some change.
So I just want the transparency out there.
I feel like the halfway, I thought about doing this at 10, doing a 10 and a 20 step to just give yourself some cover.
I feel the halfway mark, it's pretty justifiable to be like, hey, cover your ass a little bit, man.
Don't just be totally exposed out there.
What I find interesting about that is that you have grown more emboldened since we last spoke on this because Saturday night,
You told me you were going to take even more than that out, but you've now, you've walked yourself back.
You're like, okay, I can do this.
I'm a climber.
This is what I do.
I don't need to take the 500 out.
I'll just make it 400.
Because correct me, if I'm wrong, the justification on the 500 was the four you've already done and 100 for next time.
Now we don't need the 100 for next because we're going to the top.
We're not going to need it.
Honestly, like, honestly, and this is the silliest, silliest reason.
But like, as I was looking at this in my head,
1700 feels better than 1,600.
It was like, I'll just leave it in.
I don't need it.
This is really just like, I genuinely, when I started this, did not think I'd ever get to
this far.
Like, it's a pipe dream.
You want to get this far.
It's obviously insane that we're here.
But like, the first three iterations, I bombed out at like four, six and two or something.
Like, it just wasn't, it's really hard to put a 30 team parlay together, which is functionally
what this is.
And so like now I'm just like, yeah, let's keep, I'm having fun.
This is, it's, it's easily the most fun I have every week and or most stress I have every week.
But I think it would just sort of be a bit ambitious to be like, no.
Because ultimately, it doesn't matter.
I'm basically skipping one climb step at this juncture to recoup all my previous losses and get me back to square one.
And I honestly, like, I thought about.
it a lot. After the Raoul Roses Jr., that was like, I should, I definitely need to do this.
At some point, we're going to fall. We hope we don't. Knock on wood, want to keep rising.
But mostly, I'm not, like, I don't have to do it how any, this is my shit. I can do my
thing. I'm in charge of this. This is my concept. I'm doing it. And so if you are climbing along,
you can do whatever you want, because I've had, really, I've had a lot of people in the past couple
of weeks. This is really taken off where people have hit me up, DM me like, hey, what are the rules?
like how do you do it?
And I was like,
do it however you want to do it, man.
Like,
here's how I'm doing it and it's,
I have fun,
I'm having fun with it,
but many more people have come around to this being like,
hey,
and you don't have to do it for a hundred bucks.
You do it for 10 bucks or whatever.
And it's fine,
but we are very close,
Billy,
to a genuine problem that I did not anticipate.
Of,
I don't really,
I'm going to have to figure out a way
to get these bets going,
because we're really near,
like,
what a maximum bet will be allowed.
for me.
So I've got to figure out who will take
two grand worth of action on a sports book
assuming we move successfully.
But that's one of them good problems.
You know, if the problem we have for the climb
is how are we physically going to make the bet
because nobody will allow me to take that action,
I will consider it a grand victory for us all.
Billy, how far long are you on your climb?
Okay, so I'm glad you mentioned the bit
about, you know, all of us doing our own climb can make up our own rules willy-nilly.
In theory, well, I am counting myself as on step eight.
I have won six bets.
Many of those were well within the minus 500 threshold.
I have a spreadsheet with where I should be at after seven wins,
and I am slightly higher than what seven wins would have given me exactly five hundred.
So I'm giving myself a freebie step based on all the extra profit I have generated.
I am also, you know, a couple bets away from running to the same problem you have.
fortunately I live 15 minutes away from three physical casinos with sports books so I'm going to be
run around like crazy on a Friday night with a bunch of cash in my pocket if this goes to your level
fairly soon which will be scary and annoying and also collecting the tickets will be a pain but
that'll also be a fun gimmick to be involved in that so it's definitely way worse to have to do that
that like I've been talking to friends and like who live in play like near casinos and just
trying to figure out a way like assuming this keeps going I've just
just going to have to find another way to do this or just call it victories like ah i got 18
bets and at 2 500 the book capped me so here i'm at but the other problem with that is like
some of the stuff we're taking physical casinos won't let you play on either so like it's uh
i've been doing exclusively money lines so far so like that i think will probably make it easier like
that will definitely make it easier for for you um you know they're all going to take my bets get stuck
into money line bets moving forward or
over under's most books have that
like very linear stuff we'll see
as we go as we keep climbing
I'm assuming the in-person sports books
especially between three of them you could get
five figures down pretty comfortably on
minus 500 favorites because it's not that much
reliability to them at each one so
we will see again that would be a wonderful
problem to have other than the
uncomfortable reality of physically
transporting that much cash around in downtown
Detroit but that's that is a different
problem to solve that is a different
problem. When I lived in Vegas and was gambling professionally or attempting to make that my career,
that was always the worst day. I would like go to the bank with just like a, you know, like one of
those leather like zip bags and be like, hey, can you put six grand in this please? And then take it to the
casino and drop it on the bets and then beholding these just like little pieces of paper for a lot of
money and waiting and be like, all right, here's the cash out.
Now I need to go back to the bank.
So I'm not just walking around with seven grand in my pocket or whatever because that's
rent.
So totally get you.
But one of them good problems, we hope to have them.
You know what's not a good problem, Bill?
This weekend, it sucks.
Newsy Vegas 105 is not a good card.
I think people are confused.
I know my good friend Mike Hack at M.AFinding.com was,
fuse because the main event is pretty fun.
Meaningful.
Kind of like a good matchup.
Interesting.
Got a lot of questions.
I think the rest of this card is terrible.
But what say you, I guess?
And instead of asking you about the card, let's just dive right into stuff because we're
already talked for a bit.
We need to fire on in.
We don't need just be here for an hour to talk about this garbage card.
The main event, Josh Emmett taking on Lorone Murphy, a featherweight contest.
Murphy, your betting favorite, mine is 270 to come back on Emmett.
plus 220-ish, depending on your book.
A lot of these lines I took from the UFC website,
and many of them moved.
I tried to adjust, but I might have missed some.
Emmett's 3 and 2, it was past 5.
I say coming off the knockout of Bryce Mitchell,
because it is the most recent thing he did,
but that was in December of 2023,
so that's well over a year ago at this point.
Whereas Murphy's on a seven-fight win streak
since that draw against Zubaira in his UFC debut.
He won a unanimous decision over Dan
Ege at U.S. 308. However, I actually scored that fight for Ege. I thought Ege won that match.
But still, seven in a row for Murphy. How are you feeling about the main event this week, Billy?
Yeah, I mean, we know what the UFC is trying to do here, right? We got a 40-year-old who hasn't
fought in almost 18 months. He's a name we know, but we need some title contenders. So if we can get
Lerone Murphy over by getting through Josh Emmett, I think that's kind of what they're shooting for
here. I think the line's about right as far as the money line and all that stuff. Only
I'm interested and we'll see where the price comes
once these come out.
Josh, I meant by knockout, you could even juice that up
by doing the first couple of rounds.
If Murphy has a weakness, it is
his durability. He got dropped by Dan Igay,
as you alluded to. I believe he got dropped
by Zubaira, too. Yeah.
And Emmett can still hit hard.
I don't know if he can do much
else at this point in his career, but he's got that.
So I think we're starting to see
like $5.50, a little bit higher
than that. I might have a little
sprinkle on that, but that will probably
be my only action in this main event.
So I have action, and it is the first time I've ever done one of these bets, I think, on
this show, because I really like it, actually.
I think it's, I think it is a very good bet, and it is a Josh, Josh Emmett, decision, no bet.
So a couple of books, Fandual is one of them.
I think Jeff Kings does something like this as well.
Basically, for those who don't know, you bet on either side, but it only triggers if the
bout is stopped. If it goes to a decision or a technical decision, the bet is rendered a push.
You get your money back. And so for me, I think if Josh Emmett is going to win this, it's going to be
because the big right hand lands, he just draws Lorone Murphy. And Lorraine Murphy is a decision
merchant. He basically exclusively goes to the cards. Josh Jim, it's still fairly durable.
Granted, old, long layoff, but pretty durable in his career. Lorne Murphy, just not much of a
finisher. So I think this is either going to be an Emmett-K-O.
a Murphy decision.
And so the no bet kind of insulates me.
It's plus 142 right now at Fandul.
So you can still get it at what I think is a good price.
It's basically, in my mind, this is either I get a plus 140 bet cashed or I don't, I
take no risk, very minimal risk at this.
So that's where I decided instead of just doing the Emmett by K.O.
I also, frankly, kind of think Josh Emmett is a little bit undervalued in this.
Laura Murphy just feels like a very big favorite.
And for a guy who's not as dynamic as Emmett, even at Emmett's advanced age, I don't hate his chances to pull off the upset.
I still think Murphy is going to win, but it's how I sort of hedge.
The decision no bet feels like it covers my bases and I still get a nice payout if Josh Emmett does the damn thing.
Yeah, and that's, we're thinking along the same lines here.
It's just kind of a risk tolerance thing.
If you want to bet a little to try to win a lot, you go with the knockout.
If you want to most likely bet nothing but have a shot.
shot at winning a little bit. Then you go, it's a decision. No bet. I like that.
Sir, I am 15 units down on the year. My risk tolerance is not high. Did actually did have a
winning week last week. So two in a row now, two winning weeks back to back. I won half a unit.
So it was not a big week, but a win is a win and we are building momentum.
I got you beat on the tiny win. I won 0.02 units last week.
Nice. Just how it shook out.
Buy yourself a pack of gum.
I had a bet on Gaston
that got cancelled
I also had a bet on gas on
gasoline that got canceled
So we would have been bigger winners
And in our hearts we were
But
That was it because the
The bet on gasolm was for a half unit
So if I lose
I would have ended up like
0.01 or something positive
And had I won gas
I got gas on plus 400 at the time
So it was been like
Oh good win versus still like
Not as still break even basically
So tough scenes on the Joe Pfekevacallelam, but we press on.
You know what's better than the one big thing?
Two big things.
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And we press on to our co-main event, Billy, Pat Sabatini, taking on Yo Anderson, Brito, in another featherweight contest.
Brito, the betting favorite, minus 205th, come back on Sabatini plus 170.
Sabatini, 6 and 2 in the UFC, coming off a submission win over Jonathan Pierce back in October.
Brito, five and two in the promotion.
Split decision lost to William Go Me in September, though, if you look at MMA decisions,
most people seem to think that Brito probably deserve to get the W there,
and he wasn't a five-fight win streak could easily be a six-fight win streak
heading into this match-up.
This is a fight, Billy, that I am deeply fascinated
while also not being interested, if that makes any sense at all.
Like, I don't know what to think about it, and I have a lot of thoughts about what could happen.
And also, if you told me that this fight got scrapped from the card,
I'd be like, okay, no, whatever, it's fine.
Yeah, that's about, I'm struggling with it, too.
I want to be on the underdog here in Pat Sabatini.
Like I often just bet Pat Sabatini and all the Philly,
Henzo Gracie Philly guys, I think they're all fairly good.
The one thing,
Brito is pretty clearly the better striker,
and I think Sabatini is probably pretty clearly the better grappler,
but Brito often grapples sometimes even when he shouldn't.
So that's what's kind of putting me towards Sabatini.
With all that said, the line seems to keep going up on Sabatini.
So I am not making any bet now.
I will have a full-flight preview at Action Network,
where I more often than not will be giving out Pat Sabatini in some way, shape, or form.
But I think we'll get a better price on Thursday or Friday than we're seeing right now.
I think you and I are seeing this fairly similar because I do have an underdog bet on Pat Sabatini.
And I like Joe Anderson Brito as a fun action fighter.
I just have really concerns about the stylistic matchup.
Yes, Sabatini has been knocked out in both his UFC losses.
I think you can also explain those losses away a little bit.
One of them is, I don't know if you guys know this,
pretty decent guy named Diego Lopez who knocked him out,
might be the best feather white on the planet.
And the other was Damon Jackson.
But that, and while that doesn't look that great,
that's also Damon Jackson who had superpowers that night,
because he was fighting despite his brother passing away very lately.
and like he just he was super charged that night i think you could have sat prime john jones in there
against him and dame jackson gives him a run so like pat sabatini i don't really take too much away from
those losses and as you said he's just a better grappler here and you're interested in brittow
not like the best offensive wrestler can do it but mainly like one of my bigger issues is if if britton
gets taken down, Sabatini is going to win. And if he doesn't, then Brito's going to win.
Like, that seems like a pretty clear dynamic here. But we have seen Brito be controlled on the
ground for pretty long stretches before. And so I just think that he is going to be willing enough
to engage in the grappling to give Sabatini the chances. I think Sabatini can hold up to the power
shots. I won't be shocked if I am wrong. And Brito pulls it off, but at the odds plus
170, I liked it enough. And his money keeps coming in on Brito.
I think you're right.
If you want to hold off on this, you can probably get, you might get Sabatini close to
plus 200 by Fite.
He's already there now at some books.
Oh, is he?
I know.
Yeah.
And we're recording this Tuesday afternoon for anyone wondering.
But yeah, Caesars has moved Sabatini all the way to plus 210.
So definitely hold out.
The one more point on what you said about the takedown.
It's also entirely possible.
Rito shoots for a takedown and gets reversed or initiates the grappling and screws it up.
That's what happened against William Go Me.
So, like, we don't even need Sabatini to really force the issue probably.
We might need him to.
Brito might come in with a better game plan.
But there's a decent chance that Grito kind of does it to himself,
which is helping me justify my lean towards Sabatina.
I think that, I think that's fair.
Moving on to a Bantamweight contest that I don't think we'll spend too much time on
Cortavius Romeus taking on Chengho Lee.
Like I said, a Bandemate contest.
Chang'ho Li minus 175, Romius plus 145.
Changioli won Road to UFC 2, and that was the way Road to UFC works.
It's like tough for your UFC debut is the championship.
He beat Long Zhao with a split decision to win that, hadn't fought since.
Romius, contender series dude who lost Gaston Bolognaz in November in his promotional debut.
Billy, do you have any major thoughts on this one?
Not major.
The plus 145s you referenced are mostly gone now.
I took plus 140 on Romeas yesterday.
This is a shameless plug for my luck ratings that comes out on Monday.
Please read those.
That's where I give out all my early in the week picks.
Beyond that, I think the contender series level of competition broadly is much better than
that of the road to the UFC because the contender series gets fighters from all over the world.
The road to the UFC is strictly Asia.
and Chung-Holi needed a split decision to win, you know, against the best Asian prospect.
So that gives me a little bit of a lean towards Romeas.
I would not take him as a favorite.
I like to do plus 140.
Plus 120 is kind of a maybe for me.
Do what you want with that.
But, yeah, the better price I like Romeus, other than that, I'd stay away.
I just don't want to be involved in this.
I didn't really like Romeus coming off Contender Series, frankly.
I thought he was extremely replaceable.
you know, fun enough guy, explosive,
but he is small, even for Bannon Wade,
he's probably a little small there,
reckless and not a great grappler,
and I didn't watch any of the Roads EOSs,
but for the Zhangal, or the Zhao Long fight.
So I had just a full pass for me, especially,
especially, Billy,
we've got something that you know can't be a pass for me.
You know, my guy, Kenny Nunchukhucks,
getting the thing done,
Kennedy-insichu, taking on Martin Badi,
heavy weight contest.
Kenny Nunchuk's 2-0 since moving up to the weight class.
He is your betting favorite.
Mine is 280.
The comeback on Budai plus 230, Budai.
I looked this up today because I wrote a note and I was like, that can't be true.
When I was first like putting my notes together and I was looking over it,
Boudai is 5 and 1 in the UFC, which is absolutely baffling to me that he is 5 and 1 in this promotion.
only lost to Shmiel Ghaziev, but man heavyweight is a tough division in Israel.
It's really what I have to say here.
Coming off a split decision, went over, Andre Arlowski, the man who retired,
Andrea Arlowski from the UFC taking on Kenny Nunchuk's Billy.
I think the listeners probably know where I'm going, but what about you?
Yeah, he should be at best four and two because that was not a win over Andre Arlofsky.
I don't know how it's going that way.
fairly clearly.
I don't like to say robbery, but we're getting dangerously close there.
I don't really care.
I don't like heavy weights.
I wish there were less heavy weights.
But Kennedy, Nuzuchuku, Wu, proving the adage that if you're an at-all-athletic
205, just go up to heavyweight.
It's going to be so much better for you up there because these guys are not very good.
I'm not seeing like the point spread lines yet or Nizuukwu by finish.
If we get any of those, like even close to even money, I'll probably take it because
he should roll here.
But that's my only thought.
Yeah, Kennedy, Inzachuku inside the distance plus 105.
Where are you seeing that?
That is at, give me a second.
I should be a better podcast host and have all this stuff up, but I'm not so you just got to live with it.
Bet Online has that line up.
Yeah, Inzachuku, inside the distance plus 105.
also seeing that at Betway, so those are some offshore.
I don't think Betway exists anymore.
Does it not exist anyway?
The best fight odds still has it up there, but I don't know where they're getting those lines from,
because Betway is now some weird online like casino site.
Well, we'll see when that drops on the non-offshores if it is something similar,
but even if it's remotely close to that, I'm taking it.
Look, you can't ever trust Kenny Nunchucks minus 280.
I wouldn't trust him at that price because it lets you down.
But he hadn't let us down at heavyweight.
It's not like he needed to be a light heavyweight.
He's gigantic human being.
The concern for Kenny Dunchucks always is that his chin is not the greatest.
But Martin Badae is not a dude who's really going to test that too much on you.
So like the big weakness for Kennedy here is removed.
And more importantly, I think he's going to get a knockout.
I think he's going to get a knockout with elbows.
because he's got some pretty damn good elbows,
and that's how Ghazi have killed Budai.
So why won't Kenny Nunchucks just do the same thing?
Honestly,
was really, really tempted to bet the under two and a half,
basically even money.
But it's that price because Budai is so good at going to decisions, basically,
whereas Kennedy is not.
But I think instead I think I'll just be taking the inside the distance for Kennedy,
because I definitely don't want double exposure on this fight.
But Kennedy, inside the distance, plus 105 or anything close, I'm on top of that.
And that takes us to a middleweight contest, Brad Tavares, taking on Gerald Mearschart,
arguably the most important bout of the evening, because this is, I mean, we're talking about
two legends of middle-weighty, middle-weightiness.
I mean, these guys are as middle-weight as it gets through and through to their bones.
to Vares, one in four, it is past five.
Split decision lost to Junior Young Park back in October.
That won win, Chris Wyden, by the way.
But he's still your betting favor, minus 240 to come back on Mearsharth, plus 210.
Mearshark coming off the submission loss to Reiner de Ritter back in November in RDR's UFC debut.
Billy, how do you feel about this just high-level middle-weight contest?
I kind of love it because we've got GM3 who,
effectively has one way to win and that's a submission.
Like all but one of his wins have been a sub.
And Brad Javar's who does not get submitted.
He's never been submitted as a pro.
He's been a pro-MMA fighter since I was a junior in high school and I'm 35 right now.
So like that's a long time to not get submitted.
So I am going to look for the overs or the fight goes to a decision because I don't know what would interfere with that.
I'm not seeing it up yet at any of the onshore books.
But yeah, anything maybe inside a minus 200 or so.
one goes to a decision, I think is the way to go.
I guess Brad Tavares could knock him out in theory.
It would probably be the biggest risk to that, but I don't expect that to happen.
So if it goes to a decision on the offshore's minus 160, the over two and a half right now, minus 175.
I am going to be taking action on the over two and a half when it becomes available to me, assuming it's anything remotely near that.
For all the same things you said, fun fact about this fight, they were born.
Brad Tavares is three days younger than Gerald Mierschart.
They were born within the same week.
So they're both old.
They are both semi-washed, if not fully washed.
Like, in my head, this was the hardest, the hardest fight on the whole card for me to not bet.
Because my brain is just like, you should just bet Brad Tavares.
Like, you should climb with Brad Tavares.
Gerald Murschart can't take him down, and he's just going to lose a really bad, ugly kickboxing match.
And then I was like, Brad DeVar's one in four
and his past five.
And his wins over a wash Chris Wydenman.
You should not bet on that, man.
That's a dumb idea.
He's also been giving up takedowns lately.
Like, historically, elite takedown defender,
like 80% statistically, like very, very good.
Junium Park and Robocop both got his ass down multiple times.
And Jeremy Schart is not as good of a grappler as Robocop or whatever,
but like he only needs two of them.
You get two of them and don't get knocked out,
which isn't really Brad DeVar's his strength.
length. And so, like, I just, I talked myself out of betting the side.
There's somehow the line moves and Brad Tavares comes to minus 200 or better.
I'll just have to at that point. Like, I can't talk myself out of that. But the over two and a half,
I really like that. The over one and a half drops, I guess here is, here's the time for me to say
this. I don't have a climb this week, Billy. There are a couple of options out there. Maybe we'll
change our mind as things go a little further. Maybe as we get further down this card, you can talk
me into one of a couple of options, but I've thought about it long and hard. I don't really like
the options I'm seeing. One of them that I could like, the over one and a half in this contest,
depending on what that line drops at, because Tavares has gone over that 21 times in his 25
UFC career fights. Like, he goes long in his fights. And so maybe I could be talked in that,
but that line is not up anywhere yet,
so I don't even know what it might be.
But yeah, that's where I'm at here, Bill.
I am seeing on some exchanges the over one and a half in that fight as minus 338.
So it would be fairly good price for that.
But I'm guessing it'll be a little bit worse than that because the exchanges take out the juice,
but minus 350, minus 370, something like that.
Yeah, maybe, I don't know.
I think I'm honestly just going to pass on the climb.
But when that comes up, that might get thrown into a parlay with just some
other juicy stuff just to add a little bit of sauce to an otherwise whatever card but i will be taking
the over two and a half when that drops at a book i am available at and that moves us to our final
main card fight to talk about and another middleweight contest uh last week great card one middleweight
bout on it supposed to be two one fell off this week we get a heavyweight bout we get a couple
middleweight outs we're just we're having a party here as torres finney makes
his long-awaited
UFC debut against Robert Valentine.
Valentin, honestly not sure how to say that,
so sorry, Rob.
Finney, your betting favorite,
minus 240,
the comeback on Valentin
plus 200.
Finney, famous,
famous Torres Finney,
three and O one contender series.
The only man to go three and O one
Contender Series fought twice last year,
finally got a contract,
hit his first fight last year,
he was like,
it was kind of boring and Dana Warre was like I don't think you're ready and he was like I've already
won twice here give me a contract you give every other winner a contract and I've done it twice
let me have it and then they're like I'll make you a deal fight again he fought again that time
he finally gets a finish now he got a contract there dude who's got personality uh you know
got a great looking body one small problem with him uh I don't know if you're aware of Torres
Finney, Billy, but the smallest man alive.
He is a middleweight that looks like Jeff Munson.
If you are old enough to remember Jeff Munson, he was a 5-9 heavyweight who weighed
260 because he was just full of muscles.
That's Torres Finney.
He is gigantic, but also incredibly small.
And he's fighting Robert Valentine, who is like a pretty standard issue middleweight as far
as size.
I'm going to check this right now, but I believe he's 6-2.
Yeah, 6-2 versus 5-8.
You know, just a tough physical disparity here.
So, Billy, how are we feeling about Valentine who is coming off of the Ultimate Fighter?
Also, technically not making his UFC debut because how the Ultimate Fighter works, he lost in the finals,
but his first true fight in the U.S. seen outside of the tough confines, how you see this one going?
Yeah, six inch gap in height, but only a one inch gap in reach, which is a good sign for Torres Fenni.
It's funny, I think of him and Cortavius Romius is kind of inextricably linked.
one of Finney's Contender Series fights,
Romeas was on that card as well,
and they have the exact same build.
I believe that was the first one if they serve.
But they have the exact same build.
They're both way too short for the division,
but super strong and can wrestle a little bit.
I think Vinny is better than Romeas, like skills-wise,
all things considered,
but they just have a weird link in my brain because of that.
I think he should win here.
I think probably the best way to bet that we'll get
is if we can get some takedown props,
which Traff Kings has been doing lately,
on Torres Finney
because I don't think
he just destroys him on the ground
but I do think he gets a couple
takedowns.
You know, maybe Valentin Frey
gets up once or twice,
maybe he doesn't
and the round starts over
and we get another takedown
so if we can get like over
one and a half takedowns
at plus money
I'd probably take that
we'll have to see where it's at
but that is one
we'll be looking at
the, for lack of better term
player prop market.
I think that's a really good idea.
I will be honest,
I did not,
I approached this fight
and I know exactly
how this fight will go
Like, I know the question I need answered, and it's, can Robert Valentine stop a takedown?
But I just wasn't going to go watch the Ultimate Fighter to view tape on him.
I just, I hit up AK and was like, hey, you watch tough.
Tell me about Robert Valentine's.
Like, dude, that was a year and a half ago.
I don't remember.
And I was like, fair.
Well, I'm just not going to bet it because I was not going to go look into the grappling potency of Robert Valentine.
I'm going to guess Torres if he wins, and he wins by, look, he's not.
lost on the feet big dude he can throw hard and he like he's a gigantic person despite being of
diminutive stature but like just not going to do it but i do that would be a good bet i think looking
at the prop market for the takedown number i'm pretty interested in that because i think the ufc should
want torres finney to do well i think there should be a set-up fight for him he's got a story he's got
really great personalities live on the mic he just is never going to make my
of his career because he is so small it's just impossible like he would be an undersized
lightweight from a height perspective and he's fighting a middleweight like it's just going to be really
tough for him to make hay in this way class i think but he's also undefeated and i'm sure he's
been the shortest man in every one of his fights because that's sort of how that works at that point
so maybe he'll prove us all wrong uh you know what's not going to prove us wrong though billy
this prelim card because it is going to be as bad as i think it is maybe some fun stuff will
happen, but nothing that you're going to remember or talk about will happen.
So let's just cruise right on into it.
A flyweight contest is the prelim-made event.
Odey Osborne taking on Luis Grouli.
I think I butchered that.
Don't really care.
I'm sorry, Luis.
Ode, three-fight losing streak.
A couple of fighters on this card who are probably getting their walking papers with
the loss.
I would say O'Day Osborne is one of them, Grulay, making his debut off contender series,
where I thought he was, I graded him as a middling prospect,
and then I went back and re-evaluated, and I think I got this wrong.
I think he is a better prospect than I gave him credit for.
But what say you, Billy, do you think he's at least good enough to get past Odey Osborne?
I don't know.
This is, I don't have a lot of strong thoughts on this.
I have in my notes that I'd be interested in the under or fight ends inside the distance,
just because Ode can crack.
I mean, he's dropped a lot of dudes.
He somehow manages to lose fights after knocking you down, far too,
often. But if he doesn't knock him out, it seems like Gruelly should do whatever he wants.
So that's kind of my only thought. I did not go back and watch tape on either of these guys.
I mean, I'm very familiar with O'Day after all these years, but I thought Gurulie maybe lost
his contender series fight against Nick Pitchinini, but I had a bet on Pitchin Annie, so that might
be why I thought that watching it live.
This is very competitive. Yeah, I mean, it was close. He got taken down 10 times, which isn't a great
sign, but Pitchin any didn't do anything with it, and he's a D1 wrestler. So you can kind of look
past that because O'Day Osborne ain't going to do that.
O'Day Osborne sure ain't going to do that.
The Pigeon-Annie fight is just funny because they were clearly setting up.
Pigeon-any fought twice that season the first time
doesn't get the contract.
Maybe even lost but shouldn't have lost.
Is that?
I'm trying to remember if I'm remembering this.
No, he won a split decision the first time.
And they tried to remake that exact same fight.
But then the guy he fought the first time pulled out last minute, which is when they
got grueling.
So Pitchinini is one and one on the contender series with both split decisions.
He deserves to be one on one on the contender series.
I'm not sure if I would say he deserves it for to be those.
You could argue either way.
He has been in two extremely close to 50-50 contender series fights.
Yeah, that was the Jack Duffy fight, which I actually did think he lost.
And Jack Duffy should have gotten a contract.
They didn't do it.
And then they're trying to get him back because he's Pigeon A's D1 wrestler,
like a guy who should be in the UFC, you know, based on pedigree,
you can't quite get over the hump and groulet stopped that again uh that being said
gruelly is not a great prospect because he's old he's 31 and a flyweight i mean you're just old
a 31 especially with how many good super young guys are coming through this weight class but uh
he's a d2 wrestler fury fc champ good grappling good cardio can strike a little bit like i think
that he can be i think he can hang around the ufc and basically at this point o'day alsborne
is the litmus test for can you hang around the UFC or not.
So I think Grulay is going to win.
And I was going to bet him straight.
And then I was like, I don't really, there's another guy who's in the almost an identical
situation to me as Groulet.
And so I've paired him up with one other fighter on this card because they were just my, I was,
as I was going through, I was like, I think the exact same thing about the Grulay fight.
I could bet him straight, just tied him to another dude because we'll see it in a few
moments as we get to it, but
not up next because our next fight we were talking
about a band-to-way contest between Davy Grant
and Daniel Santos.
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It was the night before the gathering and all through the house.
The host rapid cozy cashmere throw from Home Sense for their spouse.
Kids toys for $6.99 under the tree.
And crystal glasses for just $14.99 for their brother Lee.
A baking dish made in Portugal for Tom and Sue.
And a nice $599 candle perfectly priced just for you.
you happy holidays to all and to all a good price homesense endless presents perfectly priced santo's
minus 180 grant plus 150 uh davy grant's been in the uc forever coming off unanimous decision
win over ramon tovaris back in december santos on a two-fight win streak after losing his ufc debut
coming off a unanimous decision win over johnny munoz but that win was in june of 2023 so close to two years
since he last fought super long layoff, pulled out of a couple of fights Santos has.
So I just frankly can't feel good about where he's at.
But how about you, Billy?
How do you feel about where Daniel Santos is?
I feel that if he had fought four months ago or whatever instead of two years ago,
I'd be jumping all over minus 145.
Also worth noting David Grant, three and two in his last five, both losses were split decisions.
I didn't go check the MMA decision to see how close they were.
But, you know, you think over a long enough period of two,
time you're going to go 50-50 on split decisions. One would think 70% of tapology predictions are
on Davy Grant right now. That tells me if you like Daniel Santos, you will get a better price
later in the week. If you like Davey Grant and you're hearing my voice right now, you should have
already bet it because it's going down and down as we speak. That's about the extent of my thoughts.
Probably not betting it myself unless we get like even money on Daniel Santos or something
crazy with the movement. So it's interesting.
that you say that right.
And so when I say interesting
that you say this, you said
split decision losses
for Davy Grant, I did go back
and look at this because I thought
was important. And I just wanted to refresh
myself and the Adrian Yanyes won
everybody agreed
that he lost that fight,
that he did not win that. And that's what
my memory tells me.
Most people seem
to think he beat Daniel Marcos
as well. And I am even
amongst that group.
And so, as a result, do you know what that makes Davy Grant?
Makes him 2-0 against guys named Daniel,
because prior to making into the big leagues,
he beat a man named Danny Walsh or Welsh.
Welsh is what it looks like in my notes.
So against Daniels, he should be 2-0.
He is, in fact, one-in-one,
but in a just world, he would be 2-0,
and now he's fighting a Daniel coming off a two-year layoff.
I don't know.
Kind of interested.
I see why the price is coming down on Davey Grant.
I have yet to bet it mainly because when I first was looking at this,
the line was much higher than what is currently available to me.
And I don't really want to bet Davey Grant at like plus 115 or whatever.
But if you are one of the few books that still has them up by the plus 150, plus 140 range,
much more interested in that.
I don't have the bet, but just saying,
should be two and oh against Daniels.
Cannot argue with that logic.
That is flawless.
And that's the sort of handicapping
to get you to a 15 units down for the year
in case you were wondering.
Let's pick it up.
Got five fights left to talk about.
God, I hope we don't spend too much on this one.
Deanna-Balbita taking on Deoni Barbosa
in a women's strawweight,
I'm sorry, women's flyweight content.
test. Belveda plus 575. These odds are all over the place because some books have Barbosa
at minus 800. You can find her down at minus 600-ish, 620-ish. Belveda, 2 and 5 in the UFC when I said
earlier about fighters who lose probably getting their walking papers. She is one of them
that I was talking about. Barbosa 1-1. That one lost Miranda Maverick, a ranked fighter.
So I think she's got some leeway here.
Billy, how are you feeling about Deoni Barbosa versus Deanna Belbita?
Yeah, this is one of what I believe two reasonable climb money lines on the car,
you know, just excluding totals and stuff.
Not the one I'm taking, partially because the line has moved so much,
but partially because I believe Barboso will win here,
but I believe she will win a fight where there's a lot of not super,
like, noteworthy kickboxing happening,
and Barbosa probably gets the better of it.
but if a judge got distracted or somebody texted him in the middle of a round,
he might just score it for whoever.
So I don't feel super confident that Barbosa is going to do enough to stand out on judges
who probably care about this fight as much as we do.
I think that's reasonable.
For me, this was one of two realistic climb options for me this week.
It's not even really an option anymore.
The lines that are available to me are simply too high minus 800 in spots.
And I don't, it's one of those where I was like,
Oh, no, I can't bet it because of, oh, no, it's too high for me to bet it as the climb.
That's such a shame.
Terrible.
I definitely really wanted to bet this.
I think Deani Barbose is going to win.
I think she can get the grappling going as well.
If she can score a takedown, Danible Bita got tapped by Molly McCann.
Deanna Bobozo is a better grappler than Molly Friggen McCann.
But this is one of those where I'm just like, I don't feel that bad about not having to have money on it.
And I think that's all that needs to be.
about this contest and so we moved to a welterweight fight.
Reese McKee taking on Daniel Frunza.
Frunza minus 170, McKee plus 140.
McKee desperately looking for his O to go, trying to finally get a win in the UFC.
He is 0 in 4 in the promotion across two separate runs.
This is his second trip to the UFC.
Still is yet to win.
Split decision lost to Chitty in Jokawani in March.
Frunza making his UFC debut off of the most recent season of Contender Series.
Actually, yes, most recent.
That is correct.
It was a 2024 season.
Billy, how are you feeling about this Walter Wade Scrab?
Yeah, I did a bit.
I think I was on the show with you when I talked about there being two different Kevin
Hollins that exist at Middleweight and Walterweight.
I feel similarly about Rees McKee with outside of the UFC Rees McKee being like
the next George St. Pierre and inside the UFC, Reese McKee just can't get a win to save
his life. Very interesting. Cage Warriors' champ beat some future UFC guys just outside of the
promotion. Jai Herbert, I believe he finished in like 90 seconds or something. So why that hasn't
translated over? It's not entirely clear. One of the reasons is his debut was against Hamzot,
which probably just took his soul. Because if I made my UFC debut and they gave me Hamzot,
I probably wouldn't come back the same person either. With all of that said, I kind of like him as
underdog here against Frunza. Frunza won by Finns.
on the contender series, so I don't want to say he was lucky, but he was also knocked down
and taken down twice before then reversing position and finishing with ground and pound,
if my memory serves. I didn't think Franza was that great to begin with. He probably should
have lost that fight if his opponent could capitalize on the opportunity he had.
And, you know, McKee's coming off with split decision loss. You think the luck's got to swing back
here eventually at some point. I don't know if it's here. I have actually lost a decent amount of
money betting on Reese McKee, but I'm, I'm ready to get hurt again.
I've made a fair amount of money betting against Reese McKee.
So we are in opposites here.
You said, you know, it's hard to figure, I'm paraphrasing, because I don't have your deck
quote, though you just said it.
You know, hard to see, like, why?
What's the disconnect?
Why can't you win?
Because if you just go and look at his topology, you can notice a pretty clear difference
between the kinds of dudes he's fighting in Cage Warriors and the kinds of dudes he's fighting in the UFC.
and to me, Reese McKee is just like the exact, the exact line of UFC caliber.
Like I said that about O'Day Osborne earlier.
He's it.
If you, if you lose him, don't go to the UFC.
If you beat him, you can be in the UFC.
Like, he is the demarcating line for UFC caliber fighter.
I don't know if Daniel Franza is that.
We're going to find out.
I thought that he was a fine prospect.
But I mentioned earlier, I feel exactly.
the same way about him as I do about Luis Garoulet.
Like, okay, there's some stuff here.
And I guess he is going to win because I don't think I,
Reese McGee is going to win because he can't win.
History says he can't win in the UFC.
And so, but instead of having two separate bets on two dudes and I'm just like,
I kind of think you're going to win.
But I don't know.
I just paired them together.
Pays out plus 138 with the two of those guys kicked up together.
And if I lose, that's fine.
But, like, I think I'm just comfortable fading Reese McKee at a reasonable price forever.
Goes back to Cage Warriors, bet him all day.
Comes to you to see, fade him.
And you can put your kids through college just following the rhythms of Reese McKee's career.
That takes us to a strawweight contest.
The first of two straw bait bouts we'll talk about.
Luma Luke Boone Me taking on Estella Nunes, a Luke Boonee,
arguably the biggest betting favorite.
I know that Deanna Barbosa is also very big, depending on which book you're at.
Luke Broomie, minus 650.
Estella Nunes plus 475.
Loma, three-fight win street.
Unanimous decision win over Brun in February.
Estella Nunes, oh and four, yet another fighter who, I don't even know why she didn't get her walking papers.
The dislocated elbow fiasco against Victoria Dutakova in July of 2023 is the last time
we saw Stella.
She is a short-noticed replacement.
If I was a better podcast host,
I would remember who she is replacing.
Ariane Carnalosi.
Oh, man, Loma got a change in opponent there.
That would have been a harder fight.
Maybe still one, certainly a much more difficult fight.
Is this who you're climbing with this week, Billy?
Are you climbing with Loma?
Well, kind of.
I am.
As I've mentioned, I've been doing some of this on exchanges.
I posted a bet for Loma at minus 505, like as soon as they announced this one,
and got about half of my climb bankroll filled there.
So I'm going to probably end up having to take the rest of it at minus 590 or whatever the best other prices.
But yeah, I think Loma will look much, much better here.
Estella Nunes, I'd say a good bit worse than Belbita and coming in on short notice
and hasn't fought in a long time, like just kind of everything working against here.
I think Loma's actually fairly solid, like not going to be a future champion or anything, but, you know, his losses came to Angela Hill and Lupi Goudinez and beating everyone else.
That's nothing wrong with that.
Yeah, this is the one that was the closest for me to pull the trigger on the climb with, just because Estelle News is bad.
She's bad.
She's very, very bad.
Price is a little higher than I'd want it to be for a climb.
And I was just like, you know what?
I double dipped last week.
We'll take a break.
it's okay not to put one.
Probably going to double dip for 3.14.
We'll see how it ends up shaking out as I start to focus on that once we're done recording this, frankly.
But this is the one where if you're out there doing your own climb, this would be my recommendation.
Depending on what price you can get her at, I just, sell anews is bad.
She's just terrible.
I may end up throwing Loma with Deani Barbosa and maybe pick one other giant line that comes out and just pop up.
them together for a fun little parlay, just have something going.
But no, I'm just going to pass.
I think I'm good without having to sweat the second or the third fight on this card this
weekend, especially because I may not be watching live.
So that's the other thing, too.
I am not working this event this weekend.
So I don't know which fights I will be watching live.
And there's not a chance in hell I'm climbing, like, and not watching it live.
But there's also not a chance where if I'm doing something on a Saturday night,
be like, guys, hold up.
I had to break out my phone and watch Loma Luke Boonme
fight Estella Nunes for the next 10 minutes.
I'm not doing that either.
I'm worried about that myself.
I'm doing a judicious tournament this weekend.
And I'm going to be that guy who's like, hey,
guys, I get out of here.
I might leave the medal at the stand.
I got to go watch Loma Lopoomenez versus Stella Nunes.
So, you know, see you guys later.
Somebody grab it for me.
I'll catch you at the gym on Monday kind of thing.
Yeah, that's, I love that.
I mean, I hope you get that medal.
Do big things and hopefully Loma gets us there.
Both of my divisions look like they will have three or less people.
So the medal is guaranteed.
Good odds.
You got good odds.
I also hate that they give you a silver medal.
Put me and finish, baby.
And they'll give you a silver medal if you're in a two-person division.
They don't care, which is I don't like that.
I don't want the last place metal.
But, you know, sometimes it's worth it.
Just collect the hardware.
They don't ask how they ask how many.
Let's talk about these last two fights real fast.
Victor Henry taking on Pedro Falcow in a Bannamweight contest.
Henry, minus 170, betting favorite Falcow plus 140.
Henry coming off the submission loss to Charles Jordane back in November.
Foucao lost his UC debut in April of 2024.
Important to know to Victor Hugo, is it possible that Pedro Falcow can't beat a victor?
He is anti-victory, as one might say it.
What say you, Billy?
I have not done nearly the level of research you have on this card, obviously.
I think Pedro Falcow, by sub, if you get like 5 or 6 to 1, is interesting here.
Henry just got submitted Falcow, BJAJ Black Belt.
I think he just competed on the recent or one of the recent Fight Pass invitationals
and beat like a guy who just grapples, which is a good sign.
It wasn't the last one.
It was like two or three ago.
But, yeah, that's the only interest I have in this one.
Just throw it out there.
Five or six to one, we can do BJJ versus Ketch wrestling.
here in 2025 like it's 30 years ago just for fun.
I mean, you've got to go catch wrestling all day, Victor Henry forever.
I have no interest in betting on this fight or frankly talking about it beyond what I have.
So good luck to both competitors.
Wish you all the best, especially Victor Henry, who is training partners with Casey Lydden,
who works with us, obviously.
And that takes us to the opening bout of the evening.
Kind of surprised it's the opening belt, but maybe not surprised it's the opening bout.
It is a strawweight contest between Vanessa Demopolis and Toledo,
Allen Carr. Earlier this week, Demopoulos was a, not a big betting favorite, but a clear
favorite minus like 145-ish. That number has come down. There's a lot of even pick-um odds here
at various books. One-tens either way. Demoplas 5 and 3 in the U.C. becoming off the
on-bar loss to Jacqueline Amarin back in September. Al-Ancar one-in-one in the promotion.
Very interesting sort of history with the promotion, frankly. She was a lot of.
on Contender Series in 2023, fought to a draw with Stephanie Luciano did not get a contract.
Luciano did get a contract, but Alan Carr was then signed to the UFC a few weeks or months
later to have a fight where she goes in, wins the fight, and then rematches Luciano back in August
and loses the draw there, a rematch of their Contender Series draw.
that time she loses straight up to Stephanie Luciano in a decision.
So that's the history of Toledo Islandcar.
Do you think that history continues with the win over Vanessa Demopoulos?
Because the money has come in a little bit on her.
I do.
I'm part of that money.
I bet Toledo pretty early.
The long and short of it is both women are fairly good at Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and not much else.
But when I say fairly good, Toledo Alincar was like world-level championships in as early as like 2017.
She has three IBJJF Nogi World Championships as a black belt.
And like when Toledo Alancar was doing that, Vanessa Demopolis took up Brazilian
Jiu-Jitsu as a hobby around that time.
And it's since gotten her black belt and is good.
But there's a wide level disparity between black belts.
There's a chance this just turns into a crappy striking match, like a fairly high chance,
in which case I'd probably favor DeMopolis, I guess, but whatever.
But if there's any grappling, Toledo should win it.
There should be some grappling.
anything close to even money I like Delilah.
I'm also part of that money.
I got Alancourt plus 120.
I really like her to win this fight.
I don't think there's like,
I think Demopoulos need to make this strike match.
She's not a good defensive wrestler is the issue.
If Alancourt just walks forward into her,
Demopoulos might just fall over
and the advantage on the floor,
maybe we'll be surprised.
You know, maybe Demopoulos will really show some game
that, because she is a good graph.
in her own right, but there should be levels.
And I just anticipate Alancar getting this to the ground and showing her class against
Demopoulos.
I think stylistically is a very good fight for a little surprise that she opened as the dog.
So I took her as soon as I saw it.
I think she should be a clear favorite in this one.
And so my first bet of the evening is to lead Alancar.
And that's the last bet we will talk about.
Billy, thank you for joining me for this UFC Vegas 105.
And let's be real climb discussion.
Uh, I wish you all the best on the climb this week, Bill, because I, I am too much of a coward to do it.
I'm basking in the glow of the halfway up the mountain.
You'll get there one day.
You'll know what the feeling.
You earned it with the double dip, though.
The double dips.
Sometimes you got, I, I sweat it out that one.
So I deserve a break here.
Billy, where can the people find your work, find you, anything you want to plug promote?
Now is the time to do so.
Yeah, actionnetwork.com.
I will have a full.
review of Joe Anderson greetovers, Pat Sabatini, as well as our best bets.
And you can find me Saturday morning at the Hype Athletic Center in Western Wayne if you
are in the Metro Detroit area.
You know what I'm talking about.
So come say hi if you're doing a grappling tournament this weekend, and I'll see you around.
Go say hi to Billy.
Go to grappling tournaments because they're lovely.
And most importantly, come right back here next week because while this card is trash,
next week is not.
UFC 314 Alexander Volcanowski returns, the vacant feather.
a title against Diego Lopez.
I will just say it because I believe it to be true.
This is the best card of the year thus far on paper.
Knock on wood, nothing happens.
But we have a guest.
You probably know who it's going to be next week.
But I have some exciting news for next week as well,
which will be revealed in due time.
And until then, thank you for listening to No Best Barg.
Love you all.
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