MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Marlon 'Chito' Vera Keep Things Rolling Against Cory Sandhagen At UFC San Antonio?

Episode Date: March 22, 2023

This Saturday the UFC concludes an eight-week stretch of events with UFC San Antonio, headlined by a bantamweight matchup between Marlon 'Chito' Vera and Cory Sandhagen, and the No Bets Barred boys are back to break things down. To kick things off, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew recap UFC 286, where Conner continued to struggle, while Jed somehow pulled out a good weekend for the first time all year, and where UFC flyweight contender Muhammad Mokaev established himself unequivocally as an Enemy of the State for Flyweight Under Nation. Fortunately, Flyweight Under Nation is still thriving as this weekend there are THREE bouts that fit the description and so Conner and Jed dive deep into their UFC San Antonio breakdown, featuring a copious amount of over/under plays, and the debut of a new type of wager that could prove to be the Next Big Thing in MMA gambling. Tune in for Episode 39 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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To the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is going on, y'all? we are back another edition of no bets bar this time for UFC San Antonio. We're heading back to Texas for a massive Bansomway bout. Marlon Cheeto Vera taking on Corey Sandhagen. Gonna be fireworks. Cannot wait for this one. Jed, UFC 286 in the books?

How are we feeling, man? I'm feeling. Well, great from that. I got to be honest. We're going to get into the San Antonio card. Apologies preemptively to the listeners. I have so little action on this card. I don't think you need to apologize for that, if they're winners.

I mean, we got to say. I make no promises on the winning. You can't make promises. It got to say, I mean, this is the no-bets-barred card. Like, this was tailor-made. It really does have a lot on them. But I know you had a tough 286. 286 was my best.

It was a tough 20-23. I mean, can I just say it's tough 20-20. I need to see one go through the hoop, man. Going into Saturday, this will be my venting session. I don't really like to do it too much on the MMA hour. Going into Saturday, if you had told me I was going to finish down five and a half units, I would have laughed in your face. I would have been like, nope, I did so much tape study.

I was very careful, kept it tight, only risked like 12 units. And sure enough, I ended up there. Ended up down five and a half units. The bad run to start 2023 continues. down like 16 units on the year. It is, it's tough sledding to start it out. It has been a very, very difficult year. But I had a good, good week. It was my best week of the year by a lot. Let's go. Let's go. That helps me. Seven. Let's go. So I, I originally I wasn't, but then I was up so big. Like, I was already locked in for a

win. So then I threw a shot on Leon, which obviously ended up paying off. So it was, the the Chris Duncan parley just just cashing by the skin of its teeth it was a bunch of good time so it was a rare week I did not foresee D1 Duncan coming out man I was pretty shy by that I wasn't sure he won that fight either

yes I mean 3027 according to Paul Sutherland was actually pretty shocked it was not fun watching that having a fight does not go to a decision. I mean, he managed to get dropped at one point. He managed to do that. But still, found the scorecards and found the dope. And that's why I'm trying, I'm not getting too high, because had a good week betting wise, but a couple of those came, you know, I had Marvin Vittori

by decision. I know many people did not agree with that particular outcome. I actually, on the watch party, we do the chat bets. And the chat bet was Marvin Vittory by decision. So I was actually on that, you know, a small amount that I do for the Chapes. Yeah. And as soon as they said 3027, I was like, oh, Roman, sweet. Like, George and M.M.A. Let's go. And they were like, Marvin. I was like, I don't know about that one.

I did not know about that one. That one, I had the, I had G2, which, you know, I think is less controversial. Less controversial. Less controversial. But certainly there were a number. I mean, the 108, the 108, I still just don't. Very weird scorecard. I mean, dude, like, low key.

he was kind of on skates in that first minute. Like, Fiziv came out hot. Like, the fact that that... Oh, yeah. That got a 10-8, but Romanov against Tibera did not is madness to me. Now, here's the thing. The thing is, that wasn't even the worst judging scorecard from that fight.

The judge who gave Gagee the first round is just so... That's a awful score. I thought, dude, I thought it was Fiziv 1, 2, Gae 3, Fiziv get his hand raised. but like I don't I don't really have any complaints about it despite having Fiziv um yeah close fight is it thing I thought I scored a Gagy two three but I had no it would have no issue if if Fiziv took it and that's kind of how several of them were and I just happened to come out on the right side of most of those betting wise so still still cautious which is why I'm heading into

San Antonio with so few bets I'm not feeling myself yet No, no, no, no, no. I'm going to need to be fully in the green before I start feeling myself again. I can promise you that. Confidence is at an all-time low. All-time. I really, really think through these things before I hit place bet. I can promise you that.

I really think through it. And there are a lot of spots this week that I thought through it. And I was like, nope, I'm not going to fire away. Because to be totally honest, man, to be totally honest, don't love this. Don't love the card, period. Like we are propped up by a sick main event that I cannot wait for. Not that much beyond that. Everything else is pretty bad.

I saw someone tweet and I really, I'm actually on no money lines. I saw someone tweet this and I very much agree. It was this card has a lot of untrustworthy favorites and a lot of dogs with very little bite. And yeah, it's just kind of. That's a good tweet. I don't know who said that, but shouts because I like the word. I should have retweeted it. I felt like I saw it maybe when I was riding on the train and I didn't have service.

I should have retweeted it. Great tweet, though, because that's how I feel about this card. I'm on all props. And I've got seven bets, no parlayes. And I don't know if I'm going to get around to a parlay. This is fantastic. So we have what would appear to be a very similar card lined up because I, I'm on no straight action, though. I have an either or bet that I want you to, when we get to it.

but I have, I'm going to make one or two bets. And it's either going to be a prop bet or a straight bet, and I just want to help you talk me through it. But then the rest of it's all props. I have one parlay. I think I can talk you into this parlay, because this feels like a parlay that's up your alley. But as I was looking at this hall...

There's a couple of parlay pieces out there that I was thinking about. There are a couple. And that's while I was looking at this car and I message you, I was like, man, I'm going to have like five bets on this free... And that's okay. That's okay, because guess what? I have three flyweight unders. And then...

Yep. There's always going to be another card. There's always going to be another card. That's what you got to remember on weeks like this. There's always going to be another card. Just two weeks away. Two weeks away. Muhammad Mahjav.

The man who hates flyweight on this. He hasn't come out and publicly said it, but he's done every... Actions speak louder than words, and his actions say. They actually demand that he hates. hates flyweight unders. A certified enemy of the state at this point. I think we had said that he was a person of interest. There's a warrant out for Muhammad Makhive at this point.

He says that he didn't want to tap because, you know, he couldn't deal with the pain of losing. I just don't think he can deal with cashing a flyweight under. I think he just hates him that much. That might be true. He made a mistake in his first fight in the UFC. He got too excited to cash one. immediately. And then he looked back on it was like never again, never again. So I think at this point,

I mean, he may not be fighting for like a year given what happened Saturday. But the next time he fights, he may have carved out an exemption to the flywood under rule. Yes, which would be take him to go not to go to a decision because he does have two finishes post the two and a half. I think he's going to rush back. I think he is so determined to become the youngest UFC champ ever that he's going to rush back. It's what it sounds like and that's a terrible idea, but it's his life. It is his life. And he's got a year. How you feel see fit, I suppose, but enemy of the state. Enemy of the state. How are we feeling? We got three. We have three this week, which I knew he had two for, for whatever reason, the, uh, the Salvador Altamorano fight.

just kind of slipped my mind as well. I was like, and I was looking and I was like, are we at three? Are we feeling, how are we feeling broadly about the flyweight unders this week? All of them have great potential. All of them have great potential. The only thing that I don't love is that I was forced to take a one and a half on the De Silva fight. I mean, that just, you can't play, unless you're just going to lay like minus 600. You can't play two and a halfs anymore on De Silva.

Oh, is that just entirely gone? because I saw that it's not up on draft kings I was just going to wait for it to drop the two and a half yeah the alternate fight line oh you know what are you going to do put it in a parlay it's going to be like minus 400 is it really going to be that big

geez I mean his fight doesn't go to a decision on some books is minus 700 right now holy buckets well I guess we're taking out of the under one and a half then that's fine I did get the I did get the two and a half on the

on the other two. Yeah, we can get into it. Each fight has a flyweight under warrior on there. A man that has been kind of us. I mean, that is each one. We'll get into it. We'll get into it. Let's dive right into the UFC San Antonio, though.

Recap 26. Time to move on. Winning week? Busted out? Bust out of the slum? Maybe. I mean, maybe. Maybe.

picking our spots, being really tight, you know. I don't even have 10 units of exposure this week. I love it. I love it. Oh, I definitely don't have 10 units of exposure this week. So it's great. Even if it's, you know, not even going to say it. Don't even put that juju out into the world.

Love it. Fest the winning week. That's what we're here to do. That's what we're here to do. It feels like I'm doing it every week now. I mean, I just got to see one go through the hoop. Just got to see one go through the hoop. Just got to see one go through the hoop.

He's going into the pay-per-view. Just got to see one go through the hoop for the month of March. Please need it. Yeah, you just break the seal, you get it. We get to take a week off to settle in, you know, get ourselves back to square one, and then we come out guns blazing for April. Yeah, yeah. Though there is game bread boxing a Bellator card, the first PFL card of the season,

and Anthony Joshua's fighting, so there's a good chance I will have a bet or two down heading into that weekend. I mean, almost certainly. Sure. But, you know. Main event, Bantam weight, bout, Marlon Chito Vera taken on Corey Sandhagen. Right now, you can have Corey Sandhagen for minus 165.

Marlon Vera coming back plus 140. Over under, set at four and a half, over minus 155 under plus 125. How are we feeling about this, man? I mean, love the fight. I mean, it's just an unbelievable fight. This was when I started looking at this fight, this is when I knew it was going to be a tough week. I think the line's pretty good, man. I think the line is right about perfect.

And so it's really tough. And when you kind of look at the guys, there's not a lot. It was really, I wanted to find a bet I loved here. And I just simply couldn't. There's so much going on. The thing I've settled on for a bet, and we could talk about the fight itself.

My issue with picking aside here is I love Marlon Vera. He's one of the most fun fighters. I think that this isn't a great. stylistic matchup for him. I think Corey Sanhagen is way too durable and can simply outwork him over 25 minutes. I think Marlon obviously has looked sensational the last few years and could always land something, but Corey's been finished once. It was Aljo taking his back and sort of bulldozing him in a way that I don't think anybody anticipated. He's been in there for 25 with Peoria. It's really hard for me to imagine. So in that play, in that case, I'm having to look at Vera's going to win this fight, not by like landing one finishing maneuver, but by just sort of landing the more substantive strikes over the course of 25 minutes, even if he gets out pointed or outlanded, he will land the more damaging blows, a la the Rob Fontwin.

Yeah, he's going to have to make it look like that Rob Fontwin. Yeah. That's what you're saying is exactly what I have written down. Is this going to be the volume of Corey Sandhagen or the damage of Cheeto Vera prevailing here? Yeah, my issue is I just, I think Corey Sandhagen is better than Rob Font, particularly mixing up. Like Rob Fonts got great boxing, but Corey Sandhagen can, it's a little more dynamic, got a little more tools in the, in the shed.

And so I think he'll just be able to land more, and the strikes he will land will maybe not be as powerful as Vero, but he's going to land, you know, one and a half to every one. Still feels like that favors him. So I have circled down, like maybe I take a dog bet on Vera, but I don't think I'm going to. The thing I settled on to place a bet on this fight is the over two and a half. Just using it as a parley piece, it's minus 335, and it's, like I said, Sandhagen's been finished the once, Vera's been finished zero times in his career.

It's these two dudes are going to be throwing a lot. They're going to be landing a lot. It's going to be great offense and a great fight to watch. both really durable, and we're going to see the championship rounds in this fight. I'd be pretty surprised if we didn't. So just taking the over two and a half as a pilot piece. And that's where your head's at. That's the only thing I could really find on this fight. What about you? I'm essentially in lockstep with you. I mean, like both these dudes, the toughness of them. Cheeto, 30 fights in his career, never been knocked out, never been knocked down

in the UFC, never been subbed. Like, he, he's the epitome of toughness, Sandhagen, the Same thing. You mentioned it, the Aljo, just like bulldozing is the only time we've seen him finish, and I doubt that happens here. What I did took this on Fandu. Fight starts round four minus 210. So, like an alt over, essentially. I mean, if you look at their fights, it's a functionally very similar bet to the one I'm making. Very similar. Yeah, I mean, five of Cheetos last seven would have hit that Sanhagan, five of his last eight would have hit that. And just Paring these two dudes their ability, I think. So sorry, just to clarify. Sure. Of those, the five of the last eight, since it's start round four, are you just anything that went to a decision in a three-round fight? I'm just assuming they would go to a fourth round if they went to a decision, yes. Trying to make sure.

Not a nice clarification there. Yeah, just pairing these two dudes with their ability together, I think it's just going to be a bang. And what you said, I think it's going to be sick offense. What I did do to have a little fun, a little sprinkle. I don't know why. Just a little something whispering in my ear. Oh, vibes. I love the vibes, bet.

I don't know why. It's also the line, Cheeto Vera by decision plus 650. Small poke, little quarter unit just tossed it out there. Don't hate it. Like you said, you like Cheeto Vera. I like Cheeto Vera. Seems chill. I'm going to join you on that for just a little quarter unit.

Just a little quarter unit, just a little something. I think the fight's going to go long. I think it could be really close. I think Vera's going to be turning it on as we get into the championship rounds. There's a world where this thing goes to the scorecards, and we're sitting there like, man, I don't know who won, Texas judging. Plus 650. I mean, Corey Sandhengen is plus 135.

Like, that is a massive discrepancy. And I just, I don't, I'm not certain Vera is going to get him out of there if he wins. Like, there is a world where he just has the bigger moments. I mean, we saw Piotr Yon drop Corey Sandagan. I think that could happen here and Vera not finish him. I love this bet. Calls back again to the Rob Font one. And like I said, I kind of want to be on Vera just because I like him

and I think that this is a dog or pass situation if you're betting it straight up. But again, I don't even like the price at plus 145. So plus 650, it feels like that's worth just a little sprinkle. Love it. I think it's joining you. Let's do it. Let's go. I think it's going to be fun to cheer on.

It will certainly be that. Quarter unit of risk. The longer this fight goes, the more fun I'm having, unless it's just a demolition by Sandhagen, but I just don't see that happening. It would be shocking if it was a demolition, yeah. There's just no way. Like, Marlon Schrovere just has too much hard.

Like, he's just too much of a dog. Too much of that dog at him. Like, he's just, it's going to be awesome. And if it loses and Corey Sandhagen wins by decision, I can be cool with that because I also like Corey Sandhagen. I mean, these are just two fighters that I like. and it's going to be awesome. Like, perfect way to end the night.

Very much looking forward to it. Think this San Antonio crowd is going to be hiked. They showed out in Austin. I think they show out here in San Antonio. I think so. I think Marlon Vera is going to get a hero's welcome, and it's going to be a big night. Oh, sign me up.

Sign me up for that. All right. Let's move on. To other fights that I don't care nearly as much about. Marshall's buyers travel far and wide, hustling for great deals on amazing gifts. So you don't have to. They've bagged this season's Italian leather handbags.

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The fact that we only spent like eight minutes on the main event shows that we're probably going to spend like two and a half minutes on each of these next one. And let's start that trend. Let's start that trend with the co-main event of the evening. It is a women's bantamway bowed Holly Holme, I'm taking on Yanos Santos. Formerly... Kunizkaya.

Yeah, formerly Kunitskaya. Great to have her here. Here's where I'm thinking on this. Hollyholm, minus 240, 41 years old, in a fight that almost certainly will go to a decision in Texas.

I'm just going to pass on it. I'm just going to go ahead and pass. I thought you were about to do something. You really had faked me there. Yeah, I'm just, I just don't have interest in betting either side of this fight. I am in full agreement with you. I, uh, if you're betting, I think a very, very small part of me was like, I could maybe throw

a quarter on Yanukunskaya because Holly Holmes 41 and she hasn't looked good in years. So like, at some point. dead you know i uh i was like this is dumb i just shouldn't bet on this fight at all but like you okay this is almost certainly going to decision it's probably going to a decision dude it's definitely going long kind of based on the holly home has not finished anybody since 2017 the head kick knock out of bechkohea she's only been finished twice in her entire career kunetskaya or santo sorry not a huge finisher um there she has been finished a decent amount But again, home is a lot more of a cage, clinch stalling fighter these days.

I'm taking the over two and a half. Price is at minus 280, and I've got that paired with the Santaginvera over two and a half. And I have one more coming up for this three-leg parlay. The pacifist parlay this week is what we're putting together. I might be able to guess what it is. I, we can get to that. It feels like we're going to talk about the fight. I feel like you may know where I'm going with it.

I think I do. So, yeah, not even really looking forward to this comment event. No, it's going to be terrible. This is definitely side TV, elite eights on, you know. Shouts to the UFC, though. This is two women's ban and weight fights on this card. There were like 13 ban on women's ban on weight fights in the entirety of 2022. So look at this weight class that they're trying to actually have people fighting again.

Amirous fight out on Haley Cowan. It's going to be a... It's the main card, or it's the card opener. Yeah, curtainjerker. What more could the fans in San Antonio possibly ask for? It would be greedy to ask for more than that. Because I don't think we're talking about that fight, are we? No.

No, no, no, no. Yeah, this is a classic reminder, you know, on these non-paper-view cards. If we don't talk about the fight, then we do not have any action on it. That's just a fight that we don't need to spend too much. time on. Let's keep it moving, though. On the main car, featherweight out. Nate Landware taking on Austin Lingo. Right now you can have Nate the train, everybody, for the price of minus two-thirty, 225. The line is moving. Austin Lingo plus 190 over under is set at, uh-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-da-old minus 1-30. Your thoughts on this fight

Seeing Nate Landware for the first time in his UFC career Bigger than a minus 200 favorite Honestly bigger than like a minus 130 favorite Is pretty surprising especially I know he beat David Onama But that was a wild Wild fight back in August Any action in

I have no action because I don't have any idea What to expect would won when Nate Landre fights Don't really have any idea It's just going to be chaos and so i i don't like in my head he should beat austin lingo right but i i also don't like austin lingo has uh certainly in his ufc career has not been the most dynamic fighter so i can't even be like this fight's definitely going to end early like austin lingo may just try and make nat lander boring i don't know if he's going to succeed i don't have i don't have a good reader feel

for this fight. It feels like this price is a bit too high for me to feel comfortable with Nate Landware though. So I'm out. Do you have anything? I don't have anything. I thought about maybe Austin Lingo, but I've sort of missed the boat because I want to say Landware opened at minus 300 and has been coming back, like maybe Austin Lingo at like plus 225 plus 240. Thought about the fight goes to a decision. But like, man, you talk about feeling alive. Yeah. You'd be feeling alive. That's a feel I bet right there. Too tough guys. I can see it happening, but man, you're not going to enjoy the 15 minutes.

I can guarantee you that. So again, another one, I just stayed away on it. It's going to be a recurring theme on this card, I think, man, because it's just... I'm okay with it, dude. I am okay with it. Yeah, it's a little bit of the construction of the car, but it's like you mentioned at the top, like there are a lot of underdogs who I'm almost ready to pull on, but just don't don't quite have enough bite to them.

You know, just, it's just like, okay, I could try and talk myself into it, but I don't feel good about it. So it's where we're all with lingo. All right, let's keep it rolling on the main card. A women's flyway bout, Andrea Lee taking on Macy, the future. Barber, right now you're gonna have Barber for minus 265, Andrea Lee plus 225 over under set at 2.5 over minus 255 under plus 205.

is this the fight to finish the pacifist barlet? How did you know, Connor? How did I know? Is it because neither woman has ever been finished in the UFC? Most of their fights go to decisions. I mean, yes, both of those were key critical components. Also, coincidentally, at the time I took it, over two and a half on this fight was minus 280. the exact same price point as over two and a half in Holmes Santos.

Nice. I was just like, oh, yeah, I'm just definitely tying these two together. And then we paired in the San Tagin there over two and a half. But you take those three, it pays out plus 139. It's honestly like the only bet I feel good on this card. So I feel relatively confident in all three of those pieces of action coming together. So it's like you said, they don't get finished. They're not even huge finishers themselves.

I think we're in for 15 minutes of scoffrey. Macy Barber came into the UFC and I think won her first four fights by K.O., but then has not had a finish in her last five or six fights now. Five in a row. Yeah, five in a row all gone to a decision. I kind of feel like that trend continues. Like, Andrew Laleigh is pretty tough, dude. I could just see it going to a decision.

And the funniest thing about you saying this is, I have a note written down Maybe I'll just parlay the over two and a half In both the women's main card fights I don't know Yeah That number's come down a little bit Because looking at

Looking at draft kings right now I think it says it's minus 25 or minus 265 For the over But you know Previously the over pairing those two together Was paying you out at like Minus 120 or something close to it

All right in terms of the fight itself, I think Macy Barber is going to win, but I don't think I'm minus 265 confident enough to play that. The same, man. It's exactly the same. It's, I spent so much time trying

because I knew we were going to have these conversations. I was like, this won't be good content. I got to dig deep. Let's find something different. Find a new angle, a new angle, a new slant. It's like, nope, like Macy Barber is a little bit better of an athlete than Andrea Lee. And she's probably going to outwork her and maybe even can out wrestle her a little bit.

Andreely's not like a great defensive wrestler, but I can't lay minus 270 on her or whatever the price is. So it's just, but I don't want to bet on Andreley as an underdog either. So this is just finding the props and the totals and attacking those this week is the name of the game. Yeah, the good news is you don't have to bet on Andrew Lee as an underdog. I sure don't, and I'm sure not going to. So it's, you know, just all of my bets this week, almost all of them are just overs and unders. Mine are all overs and unders in the one Cheeto by Decision prop. I even have a boxing bet, and it's a prop.

And now that I'm going to do this women's overs bet, that will also be. be a prop. How do you, how do you feel about this? Because this was the other line that I kind of at least flirted with. Uh, I mean, we both had the same read on it. We're just a barber by decision, you know? It's looking like it'll open around minus 125. There's not a price out yet that I see, but. I don't hate that. If I did take that, though, then I wouldn't take the part like, like, like, like I just do not want to be overexposed on a fight like this. That's sort of my exact thought. It's like, okay, well, I just, I don't need to double bet this, so I'd rather just have this as the parley include. Plus, I could just, I could just see, I can just see it now,

either this fight or the Hollyholm fight goes to the scorecards and you're like, I'm not really sure who won that fight. And you're just like, hoping for the best, hope for the best. Who's Bruce Buffer standing behind? Exactly. Exactly. Yeah. I think I'm just going to take the over, the over one, the over two and a half parley. That's where I'm at. But I just wanted to throw it out. There's maybe if you are a listener and you don't want to be in the totals parlay game, Barbara, by decision is maybe not the worst thing you've ever done.

Yeah, it feels like this is a fight she's going to win. Yeah. All right, let's keep it rolling to a main car fight that I know we both have action on. What? What? How could you know that? Menel cop, because it is what I said it is. it's a men's flyweight bout.

The over under is set at two and a half. Right now, you can get the under. Man, can we talk about draft kings? Like the props and the money lines just being out of order? Can we talk about them just being out of order though? Under minus 155 over plus 125. I like this.

I was just to say, I mean, do we even need to talk about this fight? really? Other than that this is the this is the other fight to be excited about on this card. Like, when we're fighting is fun, but...

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. But this fire is... Four of the six main card fights I'm pretty excited for. Like, first of all, is this fight gonna happen? Alex Perez has had eight fights canceled

in the last few years. It's only eight. Honestly, I would have... I mean, he has like 11 or 12 in the last four years. And now, like, granted, they're not all of his fault. But like just period, the dude has a tough time getting to the octagon.

Yeah, I mean, it's the old adage, you know. Sure, they may not all be his fault. But if you wake up in the morning and you run into an asshole, you ran into an asshole. If you wake up in the morning, you run into an asshole all day long, you're the asshole, you know. It may not be his fault, but it keeps happening. What's the common denominator here? Yeah, I like that. I'm going to say it happens because this fight rules.

And I don't want it. There's easily the second best fight of the weekend as far as I'm concerned. When it does, when Perez does make it, does make it to the octagon, he puts on bangers because six, I was going to say, six of his last seven have ended in the first round. Five of cops last eight have not seen the third round.

I like it. Eight of Perez's 10 UFC bouts, if you're also including the contender series bout, which I generally do for that sort of stat, hit the under two and a half. I mean, Perez is a champion of flyweight unders. He lives by the code. He doesn't even make a sweat on, dude.

Six of the last seven have ended in the first round. And Minow Cop has big power. I mean, Cop can certainly get it done. Cop's been a little less of a Flyweight Under champion in his UFC stand. That's what I said. Each one of these flyweight fights, we have a warrior.

We have a champion. We have a strong representative. of FlyWite Under Nation. In this one, it's Alex Bresen. He's getting a pretty good dance partner in Manel Cop. Plus, I just want to say that I think Manel Cop has been a bit of a victim of circumstance because he's awesome. It's incredibly dynamic and exciting striker.

Super underrated grappling. Dude can finish. He just sort of hasn't broken out that way, given some of his pairings. I mean, Alexandria Pentosia, insanely durable. Mateus Nicolaou, super, super. super good fighter. So I think that we can't call him an enemy of the state. It's had a tough go.

No, not an enemy of the state. That David DeVorak won. It felt like that was going to finish a couple times. Like a thousand times. Yeah, that was not fun to watch. Hopefully we don't have the same thing here. In terms of the money line, I'm not ready to like put the nail in the coffin on Alex Perez.

I didn't play him as a dog, but if he's finding success, anything, you know, similar to what he's capable of. Like, this isn't going to be a walk in the park for Minow Cop. See a lot of people, like, you know, empty in the clip on Minot Cop. I don't know. I don't feel that confident. I'm only on the under.

I'm not trying to get double exposed on any of these fights. So, yeah, I'm just riding with the under, but Perez could be live, especially if he doesn't struggle to make way. I largely agree with you. I'm not betting cop. I am going to be placing another bet and say going to because I don't have the line option available to me at the moment. But just going to go a little flyer on something. Cop by submission plus 650.

I know how much you love a sub-prop bet. Wow. I know how much you love a sub-propped. So I'm glad to hear that, frankly, you weren't also on this sub-propt bet because then I would just rip up the ticket immediately. but five of Perez's seven career losses have been by submission and while we think of COP as this dynamic striker, which he is, a lot of stuff,

he's got five submission finishes in his resume and you watch the man fight. He's got some trickeration. You know, it was deep on the Camaro against David DeVorek, like another couple of seconds at the end of that first round. That's a wrap. Like,

that's getting a tap. So I was feeling a little frisic. and I'll also just be honest. I was looking at a card with almost no bets on. I was like, I can throw a little small. I like it. I'll have a sub at 650. I don't mind that play.

I mean, Alex Perez, like, that is the weird thing. Like, he's kind of a killer-be-killed guy, but most of the times he's getting killed. It's by submission. I'm not anticipating a win here, but it could be fun. So why not for just a little quarter unit, you know? I mean, four of his last five losses have come by,

submission a prayer choke back in 2015 yeah he's sneakily has been tapped a lot in his career um and again sneaky manel cop got sneaky submission game to him so nice you know i'll take just a guillotine in transition Perez gets a little over excited shooting a double wrap up the gilly so it's a wrap we're done sounds good to me man it sounds good to me because that's a flyer under cash fly way it under let's just all move on let's go we're all going to sizzler let's all go to Sizzler, and let's move on in this main card. Next up, last one on the main card. Actually, it'll be the first one on Saturday afternoon. Men's middleweight bout, Chee-Inty, Injokane, taking on Albert Dariyev. Right now, you can have Cheetah for minus 165, Albert Dariah,

plus 140. I mean, I'm looking forward to this one, dude. I think this is going to be a banger. Like, most of the fights that Cheedy gets into are bangers. All four of his UFC and Dana White Contender Series fights ended in KEO. 18 of his 30 pro fights have ended in Kio, winner lose. Like, he comes in to bang, and I'm down with it. Honestly, from a money line standpoint, like, the Rive has been dropped in both of his UFC fights.

And, I mean, he was just getting beat up against Joaquin Buckley. Battened around the cage. Like, essentially forced to stop. And I think that's a really real scenario of happening again here against Cheedy. I agree with you in that. Again, I don't, this one is, I was pretty close to a money line pull on Cheeady just because I'm very much in alignment with your view on this. Got some big physical advantages too, super tall, super long reach against Derive. It seems like it lines up very well, but maybe I'm just being overly cautious.

I don't know. I can see a world or Duryev can maybe score a couple of takedowns. sit on Chee D for a little while and then this fight gets ugly in a way that's bad for me and I don't want to be laying minus 175. I did the same thing because I didn't I didn't play the money line either. Yeah, it's just I don't just couldn't do it. Are you taking any prop action on this? No, I actually have no bets on it.

I'm just going to sit back and enjoy. Maybe like a fight ends by K.O. If they give you a good enough price, but I really doubt it. Because looking at these lines, this, for whatever reason, this car, to me just looks like they are actively like we don't want action because none of these lines are inciting me to drop money on them i wonder if like a i wonder if fight doesn't go to a decision is a decent parlay piece minus 285 maybe it's not the worst thing i've ever heard this thing i just i i'm out on this fight i'm not making any bets just because i don't feel like i have a good enough sense of it

nothing's calling to me. There are no vibes here. But if it's going to, like, if I'm just predicting, I think Chidi's going to knock him out in, like, the second round, probably third round. But I don't have any feeling to put money down behind that prediction. Yeah, like, I wonder if, like, I throw in a fight doesn't go into the women's overparlay, get it to plus money.

Remember, you don't have to bet. Oh, no, of course I don't know. You're just trying to get one through the hoop this week. This is a week to get one through the hoop. Just clock a couple of green figures. We take a week off, come back, reinvigorated, ready to kill 287. All right. All right.

Well, I mean, I could get that parlay up to plus 150. And who needs a plus money parlay? Not me. Not me. Unnecessary. Instead, I'll lay minus 116. And enjoy when Macy Barricot. the first round knockout.

That's perfectly fine. It's perfectly, but enjoy. At least it'll be fun if that happens. At least something cool will have happened in that fight.

Yeah. Yeah, I guess so. All right. Next up. That's the end of the main card. That's the main card. We are flying, guys. And partly we're flying

because we don't have any action down. So, sorry for that, dear listeners. Yeah, I mean, what is this? Is this the eighth straight week we've had UFC? Ninth straight week we've had UFC? It's a lot. Hold on. and I'll figure that out,

but it's a goodly number. What are we at? I think, yeah, yeah, this will be eight. I think it's, I think it's like 10 of the last 11, too, since,

since that very first card of the year. Oh, yeah, I mean, since the first card of the year, we've, we got the last week of January is like the only week we've had off,

really. We've just been flying, so it is what it is. It is okay for us to, you know, pull back a little bit. I like it. I like it. All right. Let's hop on to the prelims. Next up, we've got Daniel Panetta taking on Tucker Lutz. Right now you can have Panetta the return plus 235. I'm excited to hear you talk about this one. Tucker Lutz minus 280. Yeah, I mean, it really isn't too complicated for me. I took the under two and a half. There's obviously question marks surrounding Daniel Paneda. Hasn't fought in two years. Last time we did see him out, he was getting cooked by Andre Fili before the eye poke. He's 37. but what I do know about Daniel Panetta,

he is a killer be killed fighter. He has never won a decision in his career. Dude has gone under the two and a half, 11 straight fights. 44 career fights, let's not even count the no contest last time out against Andre Fili because of the iPod. 43 career fights,

38 of them have gone under the two and a half, including 23 in the first round. He just makes, fights chaotic. He just brings the pressure. He just he either makes a good decision and gets a finish or makes a bad decision and gets finished himself under two

and a half. It was at a playable price, minus 155. And that's what I went with. That's actually pretty decent minus 155. Yeah, that's what I went with. I don't hate to understand your logic. My concerns here were kept me away is just Tucker Lutz has not been getting a lot of finishes

I can agree with that. A bunch of fights for decisions in a row in his UFC and Contender series and the big long layoff for Daniel Paneda is just like, okay, I don't really know

what to expect here when you're gone that long even though he has done some grappling apparently fight pass invitationals. His tapology is incredible to look at just because he's got two draws from grappling

and then three of his most recent five fights are no contest. which is just not a visual you usually get that much gray out on topology. But I just passed, but I'll be cheering for it. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western.

Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. With Instacart, you get groceries that over-deliver so you can over-share. your preferences. Want russet potatoes with no brown spots? You got it. Want turnips that look light but feel heavy? Easy. Want honey crisp apples that are firm green and definitely not Macintosh like last year when you lost the fall bake off to perfect Penelope Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over deliver. Service fees exclusions in terms apply. Thank you. I appreciate that. Always support you in your dreams.

All right. Well, let's keep it rolling. Next up, it is a welterway bout. Trevin Giles taking on Preston Parsons. Right now, you can get Giles for minus 110. Preston Parsons for 110. Pick your poison. What is the poison that you will be having this week?

I'm so excited because I've been waiting for a while to do this. Okay. I had a gimmick idea, Connor. I didn't share it with you because I wanted to just unveil it. I wanted to get your real-time reaction. This was exactly the week. There weren't a lot of bets down that I was like, I need to find a little bit more action. This is a pick-em fight.

So here's what I did, Connor. Have you heard about this thing called Chat GPT? I have. It's big in the news these days. The kids love this AI. Here's 11 ways chat GPT can change your life. Well, I decided what if Chat GPT can change our gambling life? Oh, God.

What if, Connor? What if we could ask Chat GPT? to determine a fight outcome for us. It will not determine fight outcomes. If you just go to Chat GPD and you say, hey, who's going to win this Trevin-Giles-Preston-Parsons fight? It won't give you an answer. It'll tell you that's not my job.

I don't do that. I found some ways around some things. And so I put this to the test for Chat-G-PT. I want to read you exactly, not the whole thing, because it was a whole big-going thing. I want to read you a selected quote from, chat GPD about this very fight. It's prediction of this fight, as you will, and it's going to determine how I bet.

I've got two options on the bet. I'm going to let you help me figure out what you go's. Here's what chat GPT says about Trevin Giles versus Preston Parsons. The fight was intense from the start with Trevin launching powerful punches and kicks, while Preston darted in and out of range, landing quick strikes and grappling moves. The two men seemed evenly matched. The crowd was on the edge of their seats, cheering and gasped. as the fighters battled on.

In the end, it was Preston who emerged victorious. With a lightning fast move that caught Trevin off guard, he managed to take him down and hold him in a submission hold until he tapped out. Wow. So Chat GPD is saying Trevin Giles is going to get submitted by Preston Parsons. Oddly enough, I want to be clear, I did not say when I was figuring this out, it wasn't like here are the two guys. It was pretty loosely.

oddly enough, nine of Parsons' 10 career wins are in fact by submission, and Giles has been submitted twice. So I'm going to be betting on Preston Parsons the question. And originally when I conceived that I was just going to bet him straight up since it's a pick-um fight, do I bet Treventry or do I bet Preston Parsons straight up? You bet it by submission. You bet it by submission. This is the biggest no-brainer I've ever had in my life.

You bet it by submission. This is why I asked. Okay. So then my bet will be present. Justin Parsons by sub. No action. I don't see that line out on draft Kings at the moment, but it looks like it's going to be plus 300.

It's going to be plus 275 plus 300 is. So that's the bet. And this is my new gimmick when they're down weeks when I'm looking for something. I'm going to see if chat GPT can take us to a winning better. If this, if this hits, this will be one of the most magical moments I've ever witnessed in my life. Can you tell why I was so excited about this? Like, hell yeah. I mean, this is an ingenious play.

The only way to find out is to experiment. You know I love experiments. The only way to find out is to find out. So, chat GPT. The chat GPT bet of the week. It could become the newest member of No Bet's Bard. This could be a three host, a three ring circus here, if ChatGPT is successful. Is the answer to my kryptonite not being able to call a submission bet?

chat GPT? AI? It's answering a lot of things AI. And so I've said it many times. We're a podcast of science. We have a theory. That's what we do. And we're going to see

Preston Parsons by submission the first official no bets bar chat GPT bet. No bets bar chat GPT bet. The NBBCGPTB. It's right off the tongue. It's just that. that easy. It's just that easy.

I mean, this has great potential. This has great potential. I'm going to be, I'm not taking it. This is your experiment. This is your, you know, I guess, hill to die on. But I'm going to be cheering it on. If this hits, I'm going to be the most excited you've ever seen me.

The hashtag NBB-C-G-P-TB. I mean, literally just rolls. Let's get a trending. Let's get a trending on Saturday. hashtag NBB CGBTB. If you're going to tweet at me, make sure you use that hashtag until Preston Parsons gets the sub. Let's do it, baby. All right. And let's roll right from the NBB-C-GPTB into another men's flyweight bout, CJ. Vergara taking on.

I'm telling you, this is the No Best Barred card. Three flyweight unders. I don't know when we're going to get another one, but we're going to have to take advantage here. two and one that's all i ask and i think we're going to get that i'm actually going to joe nameth it oh i love that i love the confidence i'm going to guarantee we go two and one on flywood unders i just did it fantastic i'm saturday night i'm still hoping for three and oh no no no three one three no can happen but we're going at least two and one and let me tell you why cj vergaara taking on daniel de silva daniel de silva if you've ever been to flyweight under's nation

has a statue erected in his honor. He, I said each one of these flywood unders has a soldier from the nation of flyweight unders. And one of our best is Daniel De Silva. 15 fights. 13. First round finishes. Has never.

That's a lot. Ever. In his life, seen a scorecard. He has never even seen a third. round Mr. Daniel De Silva. He comes in and he's trying to finish you. And for the first 90 seconds, for the first two minutes, it very well looks like he could. And then he kind of falls off a cliff and then he gets finished by you. It's two options. He's either going to finish you early or you're going to finish him late in the first round. I mean, the guy is allergic to third rounds and

scorecards. Now here's my issue on the flip side. If you remember, C.J. Vergaara last time out he was slated to fight Tatura Tira. Over Under was set of two and a half. After some deep research, his Instagram bio had bet the over in it. That's right. Now we're going to give CJ Vergara a pass because he's removed that from his Instagram bio. And something that I want to also think about that we need to acknowledge, CJ Vergara is from none other than San Antonio, Texas. This is a homecoming for him. What better way to have a homecoming

than with a first round finish against Daniel and Silva? I mean, I would hope, I would certainly hope that in front of his hometown crowd, he's not trying to bet the overs. I would hope not. No, we do have to say it. As great as Daniel De Silva's record is for playing an under one and a half,

I mean, like if this was a two and a half, I would feel so, so confident, but the books are obviously, the books are obviously wise to that. It's like a minus 380. It's like a minus 400. It's going to be ridiculous when that comes out. C. Edgar has only gone under the one and a half four times in a 15 fight career. We're not here to make narratives. We're not here to lie about things. We're here to be straightforward. You have to know what you're getting into. There's a world where C.J. Vergara does extend this. But I'm going to say that Daniel de Silva makes it crazy, makes it, makes it, wild, C.J. Vergara is tough. He survives, and then he gets the finish in the first round

in front of the San Antonio crowd. I couldn't break this fight down any better, you know? This is exactly what we're always about. I feel very confident that Daniel DeSilva is not going to let us down. He simply doesn't want to let the flyweight unders down. It's not who this person. He unfortunately lost his thought Surotara, but he did not let us down last time. It's not who he is. It's not in his makeup to disappoint us like this. So I'm feeling okay about this one. It's one and a half. So just there's a tough proposition.

They're hard because from the second the fight starts, you're like, finish, finish, finish, finish. Yeah, got to get one early. Just be over. Like, just be over. Yeah, there's nothing worse than starting that second round and you have the under one and a half. Hopefully, hopefully we don't have to worry about that. All right. Let's keep it rolling.

Lightweight out. Manuel Torres. taking on Trey Ogden. Again, I'm playing it under where I really only have one side that loves to get finishes. It wasn't like a, there's no real one this week that's like a marriage of like two finishers that can be finished as well. And you're just like, it's the biggest no-brainer ever. I present to you Manuel Torres.

13 and 2. Pretty good fighter. Exciting fighter, that's for sure. 15 fights. 14 first round finishes. Win or lose. for the guy. Now, what will he look like in round two? I don't know. So I played the under two and a half. There's a world, Trey Ogden extend this. We've seen him do that before. Last time out against

Zell Huber, just very tricky. Zell Huber couldn't figure him out. Rode it out gets an easy decision win. There's a world where that happens. But Trey Ogden, 14 of his 21 fights have gone under the two and a half. So he does have a finishing capability. Just away Manuel Taurus fights, going back and watching some of his tape, he's very Daniel De Silva-ask. Now, most of the time he's getting wins rather than, you know, getting finished himself. I'm going to take it at under two and a half minus 155,

I feel comfortable taking the under. Prove me wrong, Manuel Torres. Don't actually, though. Yeah, don't, don't prove. Don't actually. Man, we really just, this whole card, it is just all over and unders, just... Yes, I'm taking a lot of props.

Taking a lot of props. I'm cheering for violence. I'm cheering for violence. I'm cheering for violence. This is the part of total bets. I'm cheering for violence, except for the women's fli- except for the women's bouts on the main card and then the main event itself. Boom.

I love your breakdown. I'm not joining you. I'm locked into where I'm at. And I'm also cheering for violence in all fights, though. I like it. I like it because I got one more violence play for you. And that just happens to be a men's flyway bout. What?

What? She is Salvador taking on Victor Altamarano. Again, Victor Altamorano. We've seen him get finishes. We saw him last time out against Danube to Silva. But he is very live to go to a decision. He can use wrestling. He can extend fights.

That is very live. I've got good news for you, though. Like I said, we have a representative from Flyway Nation. Flyweight Unders Nation in each of these fights. this one, it is Venetius Salvador, our very own Venetia, Salvador. 18 pro fights, 17 have gone under the two and a half. 14 wins for our man, Venetius. 13 by knockout.

I'm just going to say Ultimarano is going to have to deal with that pressure. He's going to have to engage in a firefight and someone is going to get put out. It can also just, I mean, I'm not saying that anything that was said about Ultimano isn't true, but it should be noted. The last time Altamorano, fought a champion of the Flywood Under Lifestyle delivered a first round win

over Daniel DeSilver the last time he fought this guy a guy who doesn't want to be going into the third round we saw what happened so I'm I believe in both parties here to deliver us a finish

in seven seconds or seven minutes or less oh you're on the under one and a half yeah I saw a draft king's move that I took it on draft Kings, two and a half yesterday. Have you taken me yet? Oh, yeah, I did.

What's the price for two and a half? Minus 115. I was going to say you should wait for the under two and a half to come out on other books. Oh, well. Alas, here we are. Yeah. I don't know why they put it out and then moved it. Who can say?

But still, I get plus money on it, so that's cool. I accept that. Yeah, that is cool. Because it's seven minutes or less, baby. I'm believing in them. Seven minutes in a dream. That's all we've gotten this dumb. little life of ours.

It's all we have. I mean, seven dreams and a little bit of hope. That's going to do it. I was to say, you know what else we have? Nothing, because we've done it. That's going to do it for this one. I mean, if you were looking for some hard-hitting analysis on Stephen Peterson, Lucas Alexander, I'm sorry, we can't provide that for you.

Same thing with the Vidal-Kalin fight. Nothing on those. A lot of props. I will say I almost bet Vidal just because I don't think Haley-Cow. should be a favorite over anybody but i also had haley calen line is weird she opened it like plus 200 and then plummeted to like minus 150 sketchy that's super that's super sketchy i also just don't think i want to put money on tamaris fidel but uh you should just not bet that fight i was going to say you know what i like go outside and enjoy like a nice spring afternoon a nice spring saturday and you know

maybe lovely this weekend maybe maybe show up 30 minutes late to to the fight card uh four o'clock start. Can't really complain there. Rolling at 430. Yeah, it should be done. Should be out by 10 o'clock. Nice, easy, clean, hopefully green, hopefully green. I do have one last bet in boxing. David Benavides is taking on Caleb Plant. Yes, sir. Big fight. Big fight. Undefeated David Benavides, 23 of his 26 wins by knockout. Caleb Plant, the one lost to Canelo Alvarez. What I did do a little plus money action. Benavides's juice to the moon couldn't take him. Thought about taking plant didn't really feel too comfortable just because he does fade late. And Benavides has insane power. What I did do, I took David Benavides to win in rounds seven to 12. I think because this is one of

his toughest tests in Caleb plan, I think it's going to go later. And if you look at it, seven of his last 10 wins by K.O. have come between round seven through 12. Caleb plan is one loss being to Canelo, obviously one of the goats came by 11th round TKO. I think he goes longer, but I think Benavides finds the finish plus 145. I don't mind it. A little to win a unit action, you know, so not laying the full unit down to win a unit. We cover all sports too, guys. And now you all know, now you're ready for the weekend.

Oh, that sports? Absolutely. Boxing. Boxing, I very much enjoy betting on. very much enjoy betting on it. I just, I almost never, every once in a while I mostly just enjoy watching boxing. Oh, it's the big fights.

The big fights, I got to watch, got to bet Anthony Joshua next week. Next weekend, a whole lot of things are happening next weekend. So many things. Got a strike for the UFC off week. I mean, those are the, honestly, some of the best weekends when there's no UFC going on, because everything else is happening. But that's for later. because we're done.

That is for later. That is absolutely for later. Are we doing a show next week? Is that a thing? I don't know. Let's reconvene. We'll figure it out. Yeah, I don't know.

Bellator. Seems unlikely because that Bellator card is awful. Like a special level of terrible. Brennan, Marlon Marius. That's one fight. I don't know if that's enough to give me on. I don't even think that's a good fight to bet on because Jackson is going to be a massive favorite. I don't know if the Mosswood.

all boxing thing is even going to have lines out. Maybe there's a world where we just hop on. We go like 15 minutes. We just say, here are our bets. This is what we're doing. Here are our bets. I'll leave us alone. Either way, if not, we'll see you in two weeks because we've got another UFC

pay-per-view coming up, 287 down in Miami. And I'll wait for that one. It's going to be fantastic. Israel out of Sonia versus Alex Pereira. or the second time they'll be facing each other in the UFC, though. Going to be fantastic. That's it for us. We'll see you next week.

But if not, we'll see you in two weeks. You'll hear from us soon. I know that much. Enjoy the weekend. We're out. Love y'all.