MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Nate Diaz Pull Off A Miracle Against Khamzat Chimaev at UFC 279?

Episode Date: September 7, 2022

The No Bets Barred boys are back to break down UFC 279 which takes place Saturday September 10 in Las Vegas, headlined by a welterweight bout between Nate Diaz and Khamzat Chimaev, in what could be the final fight of Diaz's illustrious UFC career. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew dive deep into UFC 279, with Conner posting bets on every single main card fight, and Jed taking a pair of long shot wagers on the main event. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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And on y'all, we are back. It is another edition of No Betts barred this time for UFC 279. Chachamayev taking on Nate Diaz. We're coming off UFC Paris, which was Magnific. Jed, how we doing, man? It was magnificent. I enjoyed every minute of it.

You know, we haven't talked since and how was your Parisian breakfast, you know? Did you do crepes? Because I sure did crips. I didn't do crepes, just croissence. And it was fantastic. It was fantastic. Nice, buttery,

Blakey crust. It was great. A little ponder chakala, you know, just get the chakrysano going on, too. I didn't. It was plain. Throw an egg on there, though. Nothing too crazy. But I lost my beret midweek, too. I had a beret from when I went to Paris and was doing all that midsummer. I flipped my house inside out, turned it over.

Like I'm rummaging through closets, like a cartoon character, throwing things out, looking for this beret. Couldn't find it. Never found it's been an hour and a half looking for it. It's gone. Wow. I am astonished then that the French fighters went five and oh if you weren't even repping the parade.

How about those French fighters, dude? I mean, I'm fully transparent. Since I started on the show, I had my biggest week ever at UFC Paris, love Paris as a city, have been studying French, and then the stars just align and our French fighters just cash it out for us. I'm high on France right now. I've already placed a World Cup future on the French national team. It's good times to be a Frenchman. I mean, it is excellent times.

I, we didn't talk about it, but I, you know, I write a gambling column, obviously, from Mayfinding.com, great website. Great website. And for my long shot of the week this week, I couldn't really find anything that I super liked at, like, really long odds. And so I said, F it, let's just parlay up all the French fighters. let's do it. I know we had talked about doing the French favorites parley, but you add in ferocetam there. That parley got pretty juicy, plus 787, something like that.

I don't doubt it. It was kind of juicy just with the favorites. It was like plus 239 with just the favorites. Still had a lot of meat on the bone, but you had ferocity on the bone, but he was a plus, because he was a plus 200-something underdog. So that was a beautiful way for my UFC Paris experience. to go. And like, shockingly enough, if I'm not mistaken, the only one that there was like

serious concern around was Cyril Gahn when he got dropped by Tuila. Oh yeah. I mean, the Ghan, I think that was the biggest concern. But I mean, some people thought I'mov, especially that third round with Buckley, because Buckley started turning it on. I thought he clearly won the fight and won the decision. But yeah, I mean, I guess also, as I'm thinking back on it, William Go Me, only one of majority. Yeah, that was actually a little sketchy. So it was a little sweaty.

I mean, there were some moments there, I guess, where things could have gone very differently, but they didn't and instead were heroes. That's what it comes down to. They didn't go differently. When I lose, you don't hear me, you know, talking all that smack about what could have been. And when I win, I'm not going to do the same thing. Nasredeen, he's a bad.

Man, dude, he's like to go toe to toe to like that with Joaquin Buckley. He was eating some big shots. I was pretty impressed with Emovop because when we got to that fight, I was getting a little bit worried because I had him in a few parlayes. I was like, man, he could really bust everything for me now. But he showed out, man. He was, I was impressed by him. Oh, yeah, man. I think a lot of this kid, look at me, sound like Dana White.

I know. Listen to this, man. Yeah, he sound like a coach, like a little league baseball coach. You think a lot of this kid. I think a lot of this guy. You know, he, because Buckley's a solid fighter, he's not a great fighter, but he's a very, very serviceable win. And I think Imov is going to now get a real opportunity moving forward because he's got something, especially they're going back to, let's be real, they're going back to Paris. After that crowd.

Also, I don't know if you knew this, you probably did, because you're a much more intelligent fan than I am. I had no idea about the whole banning thing, and that's why they had not been there. Like, I had no clue of that. That was a great graphic by the UFC. Shout out to their production team, giving that whole explainer and timeline of how we ended up in France. But I had no clue. So I was like, oh, no wonder they've never been to France before. Yeah, no, I definitely knew that.

And I'm more intelligent fan. I mean, I think they would have been here sooner, but the whole COVID thing, you know, derailed travel plans for a while. But yeah, this is going to be a yearly stop for them now. You know, the same way London is they're going to be coming back to Paris once a year at the minimum. I have a serious desire to attend the next one, especially if Cyril gone keeps winning. A couple other. Do you know Betz Bard Road Show? Dude.

Because I love Paris. One of my best friends lives in Paris. A couple people, I feel like it's the hipster thing to be like Paris sucks. It's this international city. It's not that great. I'm like, you're tripping because I spent seven days there. And I had an absolute blast. And I am like craving going back.

Seeing the scenes from Saturday, I was like, wow, I really want to go back there. I started looking at flights. That's how like into it I was. I was like, these are more affordable than I remember. Rack up some Amex points and then just, you know, do the little points. Let's just lock it in right here. Next UFC Paris, we're going. We're going to take no bets part on the road.

We'll go. I love it. I love it. I love it. A couple other things. Heavyweight overs seem pretty real to me. They are the realist. I'm willing to just call it right now.

Heavyweight overs don't lose because if they were ever going to lose, the fact that that fight got out of the second round, I mean, I thought it was done. I thought it was done. I was watching it was like, oh, well, the experiment has died. It's all over. And then Cyril Gahn got up. Immediately.

Then when he hurt two of us, Vasa was like, oh, no, the experiment is still over. The experiment is still dead. And somehow it wasn't. So if those two men trying their damnedest to kill each other can't make that bet lose, nothing can. And what do you know? We have a heavyweight fight on this card, Connor. So shout out to Cyril Gahn for immediately getting up after getting his face blasted off of the canvas by Taito Ivasa.

I would still be in the hospital right now if I took that shot. and even bigger shout out to Tai Tui Vasa. Shout out to you for only being in the hospital. I'd be in the ground. Yeah. I mean, like, actually, I would, yeah, that's a true point. I would be dead. It would be deceased.

We wouldn't be recording this right now. You'd be attending my funeral. Shout out to Taitui Vasa for just eating those gut shots. I, you know, subways can get crowded, very crowded on the subway this week. And, you know, everyone was trying to, like, jam their way in. and I kind of got shoved. Someone got shoved into me and, like, their backpack, like, went into my gut. And it kind of knocked the wind out of me, gave me that just, like, kind of like gut hit.

I was like, ugh. And then I thought I was like, wow, Taitoivasa took that, like, a hundredfold just over and over and over from Cyril gone and just kept moving forward. I cannot commend that dude enough. Like, that dude is a warrior. There is, I said it on our post show on MMAFinding.com great website. It is incredibly impressive to recover from getting rocked. Like shows you've got a lot of conditioning.

You know, you've been here before. You got a lot of toughness, a lot of grit. It's the hardest thing in the world to somehow just be okay with getting rocked to the body. So if you've ever taken a liver shot or just been hurt to the body, you're just, you don't recover. Like if you put me on skates, you know, and give me a minute, I'll get my wits back about me. and then we're okay. But you just never get better from the body shot. And somehow, Tuivasa just declared that he was okay.

It's like, no, never mind. It's fine. I'll just keep going. Dude's tougher than a $2 steak. Nothing but respect for that, man. I don't know if you saw his Instagrams. He went to Disneyland Paris after the fights. And he was battered, dude.

Like, his, not just his body, his face was bad. Like, he really took a serious beating. I mean, for sure. He especially, I mean, early on, Gahn was getting things going. But in that third round, Gahn basically came out and was just obliterating him with the jab. Not like a poking jab. I mean, this was a piston in his face. So I am in no way surprised that the Tuy Voss is wearing it.

Because he took a huge beating in that fight. Last thing. Probably going to be some people mad about this. Charles Jordane, round three. No. Get out of him. The amount of people that I woke up to on Saturday morning taking Charles Jordan in round three, we set it on no bets barred. I don't know why people were taking that.

He has one round three finish in his 10-fight UFC career. Not a thing. Shout out to my guy Nathaniel Wood. Gets it done. Decision. I mean, I was hype watching that. Going into round three, I was like, all, let's see. Let's see if this mythical fighter everyone loves putting money on is a real thing.

It was not. I mean, I have nothing else to say. except for. You said one last thing, but there's one more, one last thing. Let's go. One last thing. How about them dogs, baby? Oh, my God. I was going to move on. I was going to segue from that. I mean, you talk about a beating. You talk about a beating, man. I mean, that one was... Oregon's wearing it worse than tie right now.

What is it like on that being on Oregon and being like all working all offseason, you're getting the defending national champs in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, to kick off the season. You got a new coach just came from the school. You're all hype. You're going to do it. You're going to shock the world. You're going to pull off the upset. And then just to get just manhandled. Like you just got sunned. Like you're sitting there when it's when it's like 42 to three and you can't do anything and you're just like, wow. Like we cannot compete on this level. Yeah, man. There was a know a couple of people, you know, from the Oregon area. And one person who I will not name names, but reached out to me and was like, man, Oregon used to be good.

What the hell happened to us? And I was like, I don't think it's an issue of you guys being good or not. I think we're just those dudes. Like this is, I mean, also, you do have Bow Nicks as a quarterback. So that was, you know, I wouldn't have had a ton of faith in old Bo Nix. But I do feel a little bad for him thinking he's escaping the SEC. beat down going to Oregon and then first game of the season

two picks just completed maybe four passes and just got harangued all day just an absolute demolition pillar to post and our guy he wasn't my guy last year I'm gonna be honest with you I wasn't I liked Stetson

I liked the hat but I wasn't I thought he was going to be the thing that brought us down ultimately I still thought he was the right choice to be our QB because that man has no fear in him, and that's the kind of quarterback I want. I'm all in on the hat this year. Give me Stetson. Give me Stetson to win the Heisman.

We talked about it on Saturday. Oh, absolutely, baby. 18 to 1, let's go. 18 to 1? I thought it was like plus 12,000. Oh, oh. The odds moved. Oh, man, there's got to be someone out there with a plus 12,000 ticket,

because that is tasty. I mean, yeah, at that number, that's great. But the odds came down, buddy, because UJ is the real deal. That's it. Like, we are, our cupcake schedule is going to get us into the SEC championship. No issues. Maybe Florida will at least be a fun game this year, but we're going to run rough shot over our division. And then it's us versus Bama.

And it's just like last year. We're going to get two cracks of Bama. Because Bama's damn good. I'm not here to. talk trash in Alabama. But we're going to play him in the SEC Championship and then we'll probably play him in the Natty again because I have no fear of Ohio State.

C.J. Straub can get the hell out of here. It's all about that SEC baby. And the Hatman is going to move to 2-0 in national championship games and he's going to get a Heisman. You're telling me that if we go undefeated, this man's not going to be brought up to the stage for the Heisman, I don't buy it.

I don't buy it. I think it'll at least be in New York, which means they'll have to go on a covert mission undercover and, you know, shake the hand of old Stetson B who could go down as a legend for Georgia. He already is. He already is a legend, but the legend can, yes, can continue to grow. Shout out to Stetson B. shout out to the dogs. They will keep it rolling. 12 and 0 is the expectation for this season. All right.

Let's get back into the UFC. UFC 279. Been waiting on this one for a minute. I've been waiting on this one for a minute. So let's dive right in. It's the main event. Welterweight bout. Hamzat Boers Shemayev, 11 and O.

Going up against Nate Diaz, 21 and 13. Shmai of minus 10.50? I think that line has moved since I wrote down the odds. I want to say he's now minus 1,200 as of now on Draft King's Sportsbook. No, he's 1050 at D. Back up to 1050, okay. It did move. It did move deeper towards it.

but some money came back in on Diaz, obviously, because we're at 1050 still. Over under set at 1.5, over minus 150. Under plus 1.15. Yeah, man, I think Hamzaa Tremayev is going to beat Nadeas. Bold. Bold statement. You're really going on a limb here.

Going out on a limb? I think he's going to finish him, dude. He's bigger. He's stronger. He's faster. He's 10 years younger. He's incredibly skilled. He has got...

wild finishing abilities. And I mean, Neidee Diaz, legend to the game, dude, last 10 years, 10 fights, 4 and 6, he's 37 years old, he's looking for his way out of the UFC, Shemaya's got everything to fight for, hasn't tasted gold yet, wants to taste gold, needs to taste gold. So have a hard time without injuries happening, seeing Neidea's getting his hand raised. Yeah, he's not going to. but that being said this is

an incredibly not interesting fight right like I think the 95 to 99% of the times this fight happens the least interesting outcome happens but because it's Nate Diaz because your imagination can run wild with you

I have some interesting things I've got I've got some real real long shot oh please tell me please tell me I have a lot of bets down. Two of these are just total absolute flyers,

not putting anything even remotely resembling real money on, but just to live a little. I also, you gotta live a little. I mean, we'll start, because I don't know how much or what action you have here. I do have Chimae have an apparelite piece on this fight. Cool. Are you with me in that, or is that number two high to parlay them?

I'll just, I'll just ruin it now. snagged him when he was just a touch under a thousand on draft kings at minus 950. I also have fight does not go as a parlay piece at minus 500. And then earlier this week on Vandal I snagged Shemai of KOT

KO plus 115. I mean fair. I think all of those are absolutely reasonable. Is the KOTKO number still that way? I want to say it's down to minus 105 last I checked? Shamiiv by KOT

D.K. It was minus 150 on DK. So, who, who. Don't mind that little line movement right there. Yeah, you should not. That's probably enough. I mean, honestly, I'm still probably just, that's going to be the outcome, so I still take it. But so I've got Chama Chameh's straight in a parlay. I also, I'm taking the over, the over one and a half, minus 150.

I can respect that. Nate Diaz has only been finished three times in his career. one of them was against Mastodal relatively recently. That was a cut stoppage. The other, you know, Josh Thompson kicked him in the face, and he got tapped like a million years ago. I don't think whatever your thoughts on Nate Diaz are, and I do think he's going to lose this fight pretty convincingly,

shoe leather tough man. Like, this dude just does not get out of there. I think if I also don't know how Chimaa is going to approach this fight, right? Like, I think there's, I mean, obviously this, smart thing is he just comes, tackles Nate to the ground, beats his face off, smash, you know, that's what he can do. But we saw against Gilbert Burns, he wanted to come out and Chuck Mitz. I think he can do that against Nate Diaz and not really get into danger because he always

has the back pocket of a takedown. But if he does that, I love Nate's chances to survive, you know, seven and a half minutes in that regard. So I got Diovao on Chameh, Diaz. I've got Chimaeuf straight. And then for funzies, I took two little shots here. First shot I took, probably not going to cash, but I wanted to live. It's Nate Diaz by submission, buddy.

I knew it. I knew it was coming. Plus, 1600. I know it was coming. I don't think it's going to happen. Can you imagine the scenes? He's got it tight and Shamiya of taps. The world would implode on itself.

I know. And it's never going to happen. And the number is high, is not high enough, frankly, it plus 1,600. But dream with me. Just dream with me. I'm dreaming. That's what this is about. This is about what if I was, so we did a roundtable other this week on our main

our concrete website. Great website. About what would be the most Nate Diaz thing to happen at UFC 279. And I mean, there were two real options I thought for it. The first is Nate comes. encounters him somehow. Like, Jamaya was overconfident. Nate is just really durable and tires him out and maybe gets the sub in there.

So I'm going to take the shot at the plus 1,600 just for funzies. You're talking to a man that love isn't even a strong enough word, adores, adores taking submission props that are never going to hit. You do love. I've made a career of taking losing submission props. So who am I to throw any shame here? I love it. Let's dream a little bit.

Let's live a little bit. Let's live a little bit, a little bit. And also the other, I don't think this is going to happen either. But just in case, just to cover my bases. Because I, you know, the most Nate Diaz thing is perhaps that Nate pulls off a miracle submission and gets the W in the most incredible way. the second most Nate Diaz thing to happen and honestly the thing that I have been preaching for months long before this fight even got official

just back when Nate was coming on the MMA hour great program to say give me a fight I just want to fight anybody so I can move on the UFC was handing him fights he didn't want to accept like Jemaya because they're trying to send him out on a loss and I've been saying for almost a year now except any fight, any fight whatsoever that comes his way. Walk out, as soon as the bell rings, just tap. Just tap.

Tap immediately. Submit, I lose. He has fulfilled his contractual obligation. He can fire up the two-finger salute to Dana White as he leaves the cage. It'd be the most Nate D.S thing in the entire world for him to go out like that. Total boss move. Some fans may hate it. I would love it.

I see. I'd love it. Yeah, and so as a result of that, I decided I would take a little baby flyer on fight to be one between zero of round one and 59 seconds of round one. Yeah, what's the line? The line is plus 1,000, so it's not even like a super juiced line. Yeah, I thought that was going to be like plus 3,000 or something. So did I. When I was first conceptualizing it, I was like, all right, give me, this is going to be a plus 10,000 or something.

I'll take it just for the lulls. and then the price here I shouldn't bet. Like, I'm just being real. This is not a value bet. This is a negative, poor, stupid bet. I don't care. I love it. I love it.

It would be the funniest bet I've ever cashed in my life. Oh, my God. It would be legendary. It would be unbelievable. You'd have to frame the ticket next to a picture of him walking out of the octagon with both his middle fingers up. Dude, that's a great idea. I'm going to do it for, I'm going to talk to our social team to just make sure they've got

that ticket over, you know, right. underneath Nate doing that for an IG post after it happens because unbelievable stuff. Oh, my God. I don't think either of those two flyer bets are going to cash. I think they are both probably not good value bets either because the odds should be longer than they are. But I'm trying to dream and I'm trying to have some fun and I would have a ton of fun in this regard.

So that's where I'm out on this fight. As much as I have involved with Shemayev, which actually isn't like a ton, a fight doesn't go the distance would also cash in both those situations. I would lose those bets with a smile on my face if either of those things happened. Like, I just like, I would be dying laughing if, like, Diaz had it locked up, I'd be like, I cannot believe what I am watching right now. Like, this is unbelievable. Honestly, I believe, I guess the odds reflected too.

I believe in him, like, coming out and being like, nah, fuck the UFC, I'm out. That one's really possible. Yeah, more than I do the submission one. The submission one, I would be, it would be Leon, like, actually times two. I would be that shocked. I mean, I would be astonished, and that's why I almost instead took the KOT, KEO, prop, because the price is much higher at plus $2,500. But because the only way I can even really create the scenario is that Chamev says,

I am comfortable striking with you gets a little out over his skis Diaz maybe catches him with something and then but when Diaz does that I mean he finishes on the ground and mostly he's going to finish with a submission there so I still just decided

the sub is a funnier bet and it's because if you throw up the triangle and fire double bird that Dana White with a triangle on Maya I might die of happiness but that's like a frame worthy That's like a picture that would just go down in history, if that happened.

Oh, yeah. Dude, if Chameyev had any sense of the moment or was just a good hang, he would just throw this fight to Nate Diaz, just for the greatness of it all. A one-armed rear naked while he's got the middle finger up to everyone in Chimai of stabbing. It would be unbelievable. I mean, no, it would actually be unbelievable. I wouldn't be able to believe what I was saying. I genuinely do not believe that as a thing.

Yes, I would be slapping myself to wake up if that happened. From an actual analytical point, speaking on how Shamiyev will handle this fight, I think coming off of the Gilbert Burns fight into this one is like the perfect setup for him. I just think that his coaches said it to him between every round. What are you doing? like you have a path to victory here, like you are going into his game, you are handing this fight to him,

I think he'll come out and do what he needs to do to win with the least resistance, in my opinion. Also, were you, was that a Nesquick you were slugging? Yeah, baby. Shout out to Nesquick, the bunny, bro. I love it. A little chocolate milk for breakfast, you know, just start the day off.

Well, you know, chocolate milk is great recovery after you hit the gym. You know, you clang and bang, a little chocolate milk in you. It's what big milk tells you. Yeah, it's great. It feels great for you. Yeah, I think I disagree.

I think he's going to come out and try and strike for a little bit. I think at some point he will shoot the takedown, but I don't think this is going to be a Liegeon, uh, Jingleong fight. Oh, no, I agree with you there. I think that for as much as his coaches want to tell him stuff, my sense, and this is entirely projection, not like I know shit, my sense is that he is going to is that chimayev believes he is invincible and he is going to do

things that maybe not aren't smart or the or the best idea um because that's what he did against kilver burns and even though they were telling him he's like i don't care because i don't think he knows any limitations to himself and so i think there's a real chance he comes out and just is like because he has respect for natee as he talked about it Like, yeah, this dude's a guy's been in the game for a long time. So Warrior, really tough to finish, et cetera. I think he's going to come out and chuck hands with him for a long time. And honestly, maybe you can just get the job done cleanly that way.

Wouldn't be impossible, certainly. And I think maybe later in the fight he'll start going for takedowns to get the finish. But, you know, like I said, I think this fight is going. I think this fight is probably going to make it to the third round. So I'm on the over one and a half as well. I think it's just going to be fun. It's going to be fun at the end of the day. No matter what action you have down, you have to watch it.

It's must-see television. No matter how you think the fight is going to go, you have to have your eyes on it to see what actually happens. I don't know if I agree. Really? You could have a good conscience knowing that it's on and just like watching the late-night college football game? 100%.

What? I'd be antsy. I'd be anxious. I'd be like, turn the fight on. I'm just so confident in how this fight goes. This fight doesn't mean anything to me other than it finally frees up Nate Diaz to pursue his other interests. So I'm happy in that regard. Oh, I have to see what happens.

In real time. I don't want to watch highlights. I definitely don't want to watch highlights because it's probably going to be awful. So I'm just this thing is. Dream a little, man. Live a little. You're taking the sub prop, dude. Come on.

Well, I am, but that's more, I'm taking those props because those are the ways that I can make myself have hope in this fight. Because overwhelmingly, this whole UFC 279, you know, they used to name fight cards instead of just being like Chimai F Diaz. UFC 279 is UFC 279 snuff film. Like we're watching some of our fan favorite fighters just get publicly executed for no, honestly no good reason. So this is a fight card I'm extremely not excited about because the top two fights. It's honestly better on paper than I thought after I gave it a deeper dive, but the top two fights are their sadness bombs.

You know, they are not going to make anybody happy. I don't think. All right. So come 1230, you are cool with watching, you know, top 25 matchup, Baylor, BYU on ESPN rather than the pay-review. Oh, buddy. You're acting as if there's not other things going on this Saturday. I mean, let's be clear, don't care at all about Baylor, Baylor, BYU.

But Saturday evening, I'm actually not entirely sure I'm even working 279 because I think I might be from my fighting.com great website covering the latest in influencer boxing. Oh, who's fighting? Wasabi? What? Wasabi? Who's fighting? I don't know who Wasabi is. This guy says he knows an influencer boxing, but he doesn't know how to savi is.

I don't know influencer boxing, but I think I'm just being roped into it. We've got Adrian Peterson Levy on Bell, Battle of the Running Backs. There's some people fighting. Anton Ensign Gibb or whatever that dude's name is, I think. That guy's fighting. There are some things that are happening. Saturday that I think I'm supposed to cover actually for us. So, you know, those are at least probably going to be somewhat competitive matchups.

So I wouldn't hate watching those instead of the main event Saturday. I'm not saying that everyone needs to share my feelings. If this gets you excited, hell yeah, enjoy. Oh, I'm pumped. But I, this main event and this co-main event are needless and painful to me in a lot of I will agree with you on the needless aspect. You mentioned the co-man. Let's dive right into it.

You know, in classic no-bets barred fashion, we spent the first half hour on the main event. Now we're just going to ram jam the rest of the card in real quick for y'all. I love it. It's easy. Lee Gengli. Gingley. That's where we're going with. Minus 305 going up against Tony Ferguson plus 255, underset at 2.5, under minus 125 over minus 105.

We've had a couple weeks to have these lines, and I parlayed Jingling Lee and Jailton Almada. But that was when Jailton was fighting Shameel. So now I am stuck with a Jinglinglyi single play at minus 240, which I actually don't mind that line. The line keeps moving the other way, so. Yeah, I'm cool with it. And I'm confident that Jingleang Lee is going to. win. You know, Tony Ferguson four months ago had his consciousness separated from his body for the first time in

his career, sent to the shadow realm, sent to the land of wind and ghosts. And now he's back. Four months later, up a weight class. First time he's fought there in a decade fighting a full-bodied welterweight who just happened to be one of the biggest power punchers in the division. last four wins are by knockout, eight of his last 10 by knockout, have a hard time seeing this going very well for Tony. Yeah, it's just not going to.

I agree. I've thought Tony Ferguson was washed for some time. He has shown some signs of life. He's 38 years old, man. He's 38 years old. He's moved to a new weight class because he can't stay at lightweight anymore because they keep making him fight great dudes in that division. He doesn't want to be, for whatever reason you're trying.

Maybe one last push in a different weight class. If he had done this a few years ago, I'd have had a lot more hope for him. But it's just not the way it is. He's 38 years old. I mean, the leach is not a young man either, but he has looked a lot younger recently. He's had good performances recently. I also have a huge amount of questions about, I think Tony Ferguson's style was not meant to age particularly well in general,

just because he's a slow starter. He's not like the best defensively. He isn't a huge finisher. I mean, he can finish, but it's not, he's not like a one-hitter-quitter where he can change fights on a dime. He is going to take over as the fight goes on, increased volume, and that to me, that style age is pretty poorly as your durability drops off. If you're a slow starter and you don't have, like,

lights out button in your own back pocket, you're going to have to survive seven minutes before you can really get going. That's tougher the older you get. You're also talking about a dude tough as nails in Jingling Lee, never been knocked out in his whole career. Incredibly, incredibly durable. And also just the entire, Tony's entire career to me, I know that I'm sound like a hater and that's okay because I've been on the corner for a while. I thought that a lot of it was smoke and mirrors. I thought he was a very good fighter, but that 12-fight run, I think it was 12. I mean, it's great.

It's 12-fight run. You cannot ever knock anyone for one in 12 in a row inside the UFC. But I thought that a lot of it looked a lot better than it was in reality. And I just have an infinite number of questions about him. The way Tony trains has never been good. He's been bouncing around camps, trying to find something. He has all the makings of a dude who is done, but doesn't know he's done yet and can't accept it. And so I'm with you.

I've got Lee in a parley minus 300 is the price I got him for the parley. I think if you wanted to take Li Zhang Ling by, I'm sure I butcher that name, by the way. So my bad, not a strong suit of mine. We've talked about it many times. If you've got him by K.O. at plus 110. I don't think that's a bad bet at all. Yeah, I can't really disagree with you there. Due to my exposure on him already, though,

I'm going to hold off on adding anything like that. Plus, I mean, technically before the Michael Chandler fight, Tony had pretty good durability, so maybe he comes back, but I certainly can't trust betting on it. Yeah, I can't. That's why I'm not on it is because maybe Tony is, Maybe moving up to Walterway adds a little bit of durability, but just no.

Also, just very briefly, the social gloves thing, not only is there Adrian Peterson versus Levian Bell, Swaggy P, Nick Young versus Blueface. So, I mean, the stars are out in wherever the hell this is taking place, California. I'm not sure. But, you know, if you want to watch that instead of watching ADAS, Hamzaa Jameh. I don't. you know, I don't mind it. I'm okay with that choice being made.

I actually do mind it. I'll harshly judge anyone that does that. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious wool throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner?

A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss? European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners find fabulous for less. All right. Let's keep it moving. Main card. Next up, catch weight out 180 pounds.

We've got Kevin Holland at minus 195, taking on Daniel Rodriguez, the return of D-Rod at plus 165, over under set at 2.5 under minus 120 over minus 110. Banger. Can't wait for this one. Best fight on the cord. Sorry, I was yawning. Best fight on the card. We got to get a little caffeine in that chaco milk for you. I was pretty excited for this.

Then I started watching a little bit of the tape. I'm very excited for this fight. It's going to be fireworks. I can't wait for it. So whenever there's a pay-review card, I'm really watching the odds dropping heavy. and I took Kevin Holland right off rip. I saw my minus 150.

I was like, yes, love that, taking it. D-Rod's been out for a year. You know, Kevin's probably the better play here. Post-bett, I don't even know why I did this. Honestly, I can't get rid of the bet now anyway. Post-bet, I was going back and watching some tape. I loved it when I placed it. Definitely don't love it now.

I'm especially looking at some of the stats. I'm like, maybe I shouldn't have just rip the trick. triggered so quickly on this one. The line has actually moved in my favor, but this is one that if I lose, I'm not going to be shocked. Like, D-Rod has sick boxing. He's durable.

The reach advantage is huge for Kevin Holland, but yeah, it's going to be a great fight, dude. Great fighters going up against each other. It's going to be fireworks if it's going to be a close fight. But yeah, I'm riding with my guy, Kevin Hollen. I love that breakdown because I'm on D-Rod. Right, sweet, sweet, sweet. Yeah, I did not have whatever vision you had on Kevin Holland.

I am surprised that the line is moving towards him. Dude, sometimes I get these notifications of lines dropping and I get a little too, a little too like, you know, I'm just like, oh, got to play, got to play it, got to beat the line. Yeah, which I did. I don't, I'm not in love with Kevin Holland minus 150. I really am not in love with Kevin Hollander minus 195. Yeah, that's a real tough hang.

I've got Daniel Rodriguez at plus 165, and I love that number. I think that a lot of that line movement has to be. The only way that makes sense to me is that line is just because people know who Kevin Holland is, right? And Daniel Rodriguez has been out for a year. Even when he was in, he's not a guy who makes a lot of waves. he just goes in and puts in good work. But, I mean, Daniel Rodriguez is just a damn fine fighter, man.

Like, he is, his boxing is elite. Like, it is so very, very good. And he should be undefeated in the UFC, right? Like, I mean, he should arguably be undefeated his career. He lost the Splittian in the regional scene. And he lost Nicholas Dolby. I thought he won the Nicholas Dolby fight. And maybe if he is undefeated, he's got a little more cachet to him.

But his dude's just, yes, Kevin Holland has the reach. Kevin Holland is a solid enough striker, but he's not like the most fundamentally sound boxer in the world or really just fighter in the world. And I think Daniel Rodriguez can box him up on the feet. I don't think there's a lot of grappling that takes place in this fight. I think it's going to be a really fun fight. It's probably that both guys are going to have moments.

But I just, I love Danny Rodriguez as a fighter. and I think this is a great, great fight for him. So I love him at plus 165. I also, both men are super damn tough, super durable. I also have a bet on the over, two and a half minus 115. D-Rod's never been finished in his career. Kevin Holland has been submitted a couple times, but he's Kevin Holland. You know, this dude went 15 minutes with Tiago Santos when Tiago Santos was...

Tiago Santos. Yeah, before Tiago Santos turned into a boring lame fighter, he went 15 minutes with him. You know, he went 25 minutes with Derek Brunson and Marvin Vittori. I mean, this guy is, he is incredibly durable. So for sure, I've got the over, over two and a half at minus 115 here. I don't mind that play, and I don't mind your dog play either, but I will be backing, you know, the crime fighting Kevin Holland on Saturday night. And what should be one of the best fights on the car? Top three are very interesting to see, so I'm looking forward to them.

Let's keep it going on the main card. Maybe not as interesting as Kevin Holland, Daniel Rodriguez. It's a women's bantamemate out. It's Irene Aldana going up against Macy, Chezon. You can get Aldana at minus 170. Chezon coming back at plus 145. Fight goes minus 180, fight does not. Plus 150.

I'm riding with Aldana. I'm just keeping the chalk train going over here. I just think she's got the boxing advantage. I think she's got the power advantage. I know she's a smaller fighter, but I don't really rate Macy Shays on that highly. I think her path to victory is getting into the map, but I think Aldana's got decent takedown defense. Other than that home fight, she's really had excellent takedown defense, has pretty consistently stuffed almost every takedown that's been shot at her. And I think she's just going to outbox her to land the bigger shots throughout the 15 minutes and maybe even knock her out.

I mean, she actually has potential to knock people out at every. a 135. Yeah, I don't have any play here. I have one that I'm looking at, and I would love your thoughts on it. Please tell me. Though, based on what you're saying, I think maybe you would counsel me not to. The over as well, I'm just stealing your bit on overs and unders lately. Over's a great, good.

Yeah, over two and a half is minus 195. It's a bit of a number, but Aldonix cashed in eight over 10 UFC fights. She's, I mean, she has put together some finishes in recent run, but not a ton. And Chason's pretty durable. You know, it's pretty tough, pretty tough out. So I'm looking at that. I don't feel, honestly, I don't feel confident enough either way to bet either woman here. I think Aldana should win, but she has never entirely impressed me.

And Chiaen is the opposite. Chesaun is somebody who I've thought has the bones to be good. but hasn't quite found her game yet, then maybe she won't ever find it because she is, you know, aging a bit. But this is the exact sort of fight that I could see Jason finally putting it all together and Aldana being in trouble. So I'm away from this fight entirely, but I am still kind of considering that over two and a half bet.

Look at this, a smarter man than me, not forcing a bet on the main card action here. I got a bet on every fight on the main card. I respect that. Doing it right for the pay-per-view. Doing for the people. Yeah, it's pretty much it on that one. Let's keep it rolling last fight on the main card. It is a light heavyweight bouted.

It is Johnny Walker. Coming at plus 170, getting dog money on Johnny Walker, going up against eye on Kutalaba, minus 200 for Kutalaba, over under set at 1.5, minus 150 for the under, over at 1.5 at plus 120.

Yeah, I got some violence props in play on this one. I think it's just going to be a pretty hectic crazy fight. 25 fights apiece for both these dudes. Combined of the 50, 43 have not gone to a decision. Walker, six of his last eight have been finished in the first round. Kutalaba, six of his last nine have been finished in the first round. Win or lose, these guys typically don't go to a decision.

Yes. The answer is yes to your question of, am I still haunted by the Diago Santos, Johnny Walker five-round staring contest? Do I think that's going to happen here? No. I think Santos and Walker have that sort of, you know, gun-shy capabilities about him. I think Kutalab is going to come here and force Johnny Walker to engage in a fight. And in that circumstances, Johnny Walker still has power.

Johnny Walker still has finishing capabilities. I think Kutalapa does as well, plus Johnny Walker, not the best chin in the UFC. So I do think that this fight goes short. I use fight doesn't go as a parlay piece and I am on the under one and a half. Oh, I love it. I love everything about this because I'm on the exact opposite side. Let's go. By the distance?

No, no, no, not. Oh, okay. I was that. I want to be as, you were just giving me credit and props. Being a smarter man than you for not betting on Chi Eason Aldana don't need to. I decided to not be smart for this particular fight because this isn't based on logic. or sense or reason because I cannot argue with a single thing you said.

I fundamentally agree with every aspect of it. But... Tell me. I'm on the over one and a half at plus 120 for one very, very specific reason. And it is... It's the thing that haunts you. It is that since moving to SBG Island,

Johnny Walker has been an incredible... incredibly boring individual. He is no longer fun Johnny Walker, the fighter. He just kind of sucks ass now. And we saw that in the five-round tap fest with Tiago Santos. Jamal Hill, he was trying his best to not be fun. And then Jamal Hill. Jamal Hill made Tiago Santos fun again.

Jamal Hill can make anyone fun because that's just who he is. I will in no way be surprised if Yon Kutalaba walks forward and makes it. makes this a dog fight really fun, really fast, just so you've said. But he is also, you know, he's gone to decision two of his last three fights. He's, I think there's absolutely a world where he does push the pace, but I can see this fight just being awful because Johnny Walker doesn't want to be fun anymore. And so, since it's only one and a half, if it was two and a half, there's not a world in which I'd touch the over here.

Only one and a half. I'm taking a shot. Pure gut instinct, shooting from the hip here. No logic reason. Obviously a bad bet. But I think it's going to happen. Something's just telling me,

and so I'm going with my gut. You have to trust the gut. From your standpoint, it is either going to be a bet where you're like, this was so... Oh, this is going to lose early. I was going to say,

it's either going to be like, wow, this was so easy. They literally just stared at each other or Kutalaba just got on top and was just like controlling or something like that. Yeah, or it's just going to be like just PTSD type scenes of like, oh my God, what is happening right now, just chaos and it's going to end fast. Oh, yeah, absolutely. And I think that's, so that's the other part that I think was not mentioned enough.

Kutelabba loves old wrestling. Like if he just wants to stand up and chuck hands, Johnny Walker don't have a great chin. the bet will die quickly. Kutalava shoots a lot of takedowns, gets a lot of takedowns, spends time on top. If he just tackles Johnny Walker to the ground, you could eat that whole roundup without a finish quite easily, I'd see. And then I just got to make it two and a half more minutes in round two. So plus money, I took the shot, and I don't regret it.

I have no regrets. I love it. I love it. I mean, it makes for good banter when we're on the opposite side. Oh, yeah. That is your main card for UFC 279. Let's dive into a couple of these prelims. It is a men's featherweight bout

Hakeem Thawadu going up against Julian Arosa. Right now you can get Thawadu. For minus two as I scroll to find it. I don't know why I didn't put it in my notes. He's minus 215. Minus 215. I swear that was the last fight I looked at as we were going there. The over under is set of two and a half,

over minus 160, the under plus 130. You want anything here? I'm not, though. I'm open to you selling me on Hakeem Dawadu. I am not. I don't have a bet, but if you make a compelling case, if I was betting someone, it would be DaWu. And if you can make a compelling case, I'm open to it.

The case isn't that compelling. I like Hakeem Dawadu. I really love watching them fight. And I mean, this week, I just, I love chalk. I mean, I normally love chalk, but it's... You do love chalk. It's especially strong this week. So, yeah, I played Dawoodoo.

Got him at minus 190. I know Oroz is taller, but just Daoudo is just such like a technical. Like he just is such a great striker, getting to watch him, the Trisano fight. He looked fantastic across the 15 minutes. Second best striking differential in featherweight history. 2.67. behind only Alexander the Great Volcanowski. I know that's just a stat, but I do like what he's got there.

He doesn't have a ton of power, but Orozah doesn't have that great of a chin either. Four of his five UFC losses coming by knockout. But I think the likely outcome is Dawadu just strikes him to death over the 15 minutes. Outpoints him and gets a unanimous decision, 2928, 37, something like that. One thing I do, I do have concern that could probably keep you off here. is erosa taking it to the ground i mean we saw dowdo struggle against i've loved in that department obviously i've loved a different level of grappler and wrestler but yeah there's always that case with erosa you know maybe throw something up get dowdo and something sketchy uh but yeah i'm just

rocking with my guy meeting game oh i figured out i figured it out i figured out why you made this bet actually as i'm looking looking over things again it's it's because julian errone Rosa beat Charles Dordane in the third round. And so you're just salty that he's, that third round Jordan is not a thing. And you can't, I know the fans are all about third round Charles Dordane. You are all about third round Charles Dordane. And obviously, Rosa was like, that's not a real thing. And so you're just mad.

That's it. That's the bet. You caught me. I respect it. You caught me. Actually, I wish I had put two and two together earlier. and I just better Rosa because he ended the third round Jordan Shstick. I don't know why that thing bothers me so much.

I think it's just like the sheer popularity of it. Like everyone, like, I'm just scrolling Twitter. Dude, I'm scrolling Twitter on Saturday morning and everyone's just like, and I mean, of course, like, had to put the sprinkle on third round Jordan. Like, you know it's got a shot of happening. And I'm just looking at his UFC record. Got a shot. I'm like, he's been finished as many times as he has.

finish someone in round three. Like, where are these statistics coming from? Like, please, someone tell me, wow, I'm going to have to buy out of my Dawadu and just bet on Orosa. Well, I mean, you can now because the line has already moved more towards Dawoodoo. You know what? I'm just going to let Erosa be my hero. He's either, you know, wins and I should have never doubted the man that ended round three Jordan. Or he gives me a loss here, and I cash a bet.

and he also is the guy that ended round three Jordan, and he's just a hero in my eyes. Yeah, I see, look, it's a win-win bet. Those are the terms of bets I try to make. Great call. Exactly like in the main event. If an atheist blows up everything else I'm doing, because then he's a hero and I'm okay with the loss.

You know, it's a win-win. That's how you want to be betting. You didn't sell me. I'm not going to be taking Dowdoux, though I do think Dowdou is going to win, but at this price, maybe he gets tackled. I agree. Roses not nearly the same as EFLV,

but he's not a bad crappler. You know, things could happen. I already have plenty of action. I don't need to find it anymore. So nothing on this one for me. Yeah, I have an insane amount of action, and a lot of it at shocks. My ROI is not going to be looking too great

if I lose a few of these. All right. This might be my favorite fight on the card. It's definitely my favorite, second favorite fighter on the card. It's another catchweight bout. Typology has this listed as couch weight. I haven't seen any reports of that,

but I'm going to trust the boys over at the T. Catchweight bout of 220 Jelton Almeida going up against Anton Turcalsh Almeida a huge favorite you can get them right now 4 minus 660

Turcalsh coming back at plus 490 I'm decently exposed on this fight I got Jailton in a parley minus 660 that's with Hamzot fight doesn't go minus 435 in a parley with the Walker and Hamzad not going to the distance

and then I grabbed at even money on Sunday evening, under one and a half. I mean, in the 26 combined fights of these guys, they've gone under the one and a half 24 times. That's 92% of the time for those doing the math at the home. No need to grab your calculator. I got you. Jailton is just a freak. He's a giant of a man, insane submission skills. Anton's 8-0. He did have the unrelenting wrestling on the contender series. I think he got like 11 takedowns, but just think this is a different kind of beast he's trying to take on there.

Short notice, too. I agree. I have two bets on this fight. One of them is an obviously smart and good genius bet. The other one is, I mean, I know that this is a catch weight because that is what

typology is saying. That's what Wikipedia is saying. I'm unclear why there's such a thing as a 220-pound catch-weight fight. because that's just a heavyweight fight is all that is. And because this is a heavyweight fight, even though it's not, it still feels like maybe it is a heavyweight. I couldn't tell.

I couldn't decide if it was heavyweight or not. I'm viewing this as a no-lose situation because I've taken the over one and a half at plus 140 on this fight. That's going to be sweaty. I'm going to be honest with you guys, with you dear listeners, best friends listeners. If this cashes, this fight is a heavyweight fight. Oh, yeah.

If it doesn't cash, this fight is a 220 catchway fight. I love that. I love that. It's a, again, a no-lose bet. If the over one-and-a-half catches for you, the science experiment is over. It's as sure as the fly-way unders. 24 of the 26 fights these guys have fought in, the under-one-half hit. Yeah.

That's why I said it's not a fight based on. the math, especially because this isn't a heavyweight fight, it is a catchweight fight, but since it feels spiritually like a heavyweight fight, I just had to. I had to take the shot, so that's what we've done. And then the much more reasonable bet, I do have Jailton Almeida and a parlay piece. It's a four-leg parlay with Chameh of Lee Almeida. I've got a fourth leg. We'll talk about the last leg in just a second, though. All right, sweet. We're both on Jilton there. Let's keep it rolling. Prelim's a real heavyweight back. out. It's Jay Collier taking on Chris Barnett. Right now you can have Jake Collier for minus

410. Chris Barnett plus 330. Over under. Heavyway bow. It's set at two and a half minus 115 each way. Before we get into the over under, I do have Jay Collier as a parlay piece. This is just math for you, just like the Mago Med stat last week. Made it look easy. Great stat. Here's one for you. It's been making its rounds on the internet. You may have already seen it. I know a lot of people have since Jake Collier entered the UFC in 2014. 11 fights, five wins, six losses. He's gone. Loss, win, loss, win, loss, win. The entire time, dudes lighten up the stats like a Christmas tree. Red green, red green, red green the entire way. Pessimists of this world say Jake Collier has never won back-to-back fights in the UFC.

The good news is, I'm not a pessimist. I'm a pessimist. I'm a pessimist. I'm a, an optimist. I am a half glass full. And what I see is Jake Collier has never lost back-to-back fights. Never lost two in a row, man. The dude, I feel bad for the sparring partners because what is Jake Collier doing? He's coming off a loss. I would not want to be in that gym when Jake Collier coming off a loss walks into that place. I bet it is hell. I bet it's hell for those sparring partners, for everyone that's got to train with him. Yeah, never lost back-to-back fights coming off a loss. Simple math, people, parlay piece.

Jake Collier had to do it. I'm a Collier campaigner. That's what I'm calling myself this week. I am for Jake Collier. And I think he gets it done, size advantage. I think he's got a skill advantage. And I think he gets a sandraised. I love this week because we have so much dissension just everywhere.

And we are dissenting on this one as well, my man. You're going, Chris Barnett? Sure I am. For a few reasons. First, let's just get the needed thing out of the way. I'm taking the over two and a half. That was obvious I knew you're taking it. Minus 110.

All the reasons we've talked about, it's a heavyweight over. Collier has cashed it eight of his 10 UFC fights. Chris Barnett, we're not going to talk about Chris Barnett and overs. Sure, that's not a thing that he mostly does. but that's fine. Jake Collier doing it. Let me talk to you about this fight. Some people might look at my bets and say,

so you're taking the over, two and a half, and you're also betting Chris Barnett at value because plus 330 is a big price for a guy who I think is a little bit more athletic. I won't say it's the greatest fighter, but incredibly experienced, fought a lot of dudes. Jake Carier lost to Andre Arlowski. Like, not like lost Andreelofsky. I mean, I'm just the math.

You can talk about the math? I'm just looking at the hard data, which is that's an L in the column. And also, let's be clear, Andrei Alasky in the year of our Lord 2022, you shouldn't be losing splities. You shouldn't be going to splities with the man. You should be winning him. I know. I love Ander Lovsky. I love him more than most people, but we can all be realistic and honest about what he is at this moment in time as a fighter.

Listen, there's a world out there where Jake Collier, who Carlos Felipe and Andre Arlofsky split decision losses, there's a world where Jake Collier is four and one in the heavyweight division and his only losses to future champion Tom Aspinall. We don't live in that world, but there's a world out there. There is even first word. I'm just saying that Jay Collier is what was his price minus 410

a man who just lost Andreelovsky like a couple of months ago shouldn't be a minus 400 favorite over anybody six of his last seven you're acting like Andreelovsky's falling off the face of the earth Andreelovsky has he just continues to win

by magic and heroism but if you are a good fighter which Chris Barnett is not But what I'm saying is if you're a good fighter, you should beat him. And so by not beating him, we've established that Jake Collier is not a good fighter. And so no not good fighters should be a minus 400 favorite. Wow. It is simply too good a little price.

I'm really underestimating my guy, J.C. here. Also, you're calling him J.C. And I believe that we should recognize the names people want to be called by themselves. The prototype. I cannot in good conscience support Jake Collier. because do you know what Jake Collier's actual name is? Oh, wow. His first name is Rodney.

Oh, that's sick. The man who chooses... I know the man who chooses to go by Jake instead of Rodney, that's a suspect individual as far as I'm concerned. I wouldn't trust that man with $5, much less with a minus $4.10, because his decision-making is obviously poor. Because if I was named Rodney, I would be Rodney. I wouldn't be Jake.

That's the most nonsense thing I've ever heard. Well, this has become personal. As a Collier campaigner, I feel victimized in this situation. I mean, you're coming straight from the neck of old RC. I mean, I'm going to have to stock up on some RC Cola for old Rodney Collier. If he was RC, I would be all in. Rodney Collier is a great name. Jake Collier, forgettable.

Just an incredibly forgettable name because he's an incredibly forgettable fighter. Chris Barnett, rightly or wrongly, Chris, Barnett is not a forgettable fighter. This man is... Oh, no doubt. I love Chris Barnett. At one point, he fought out of Athens, Georgia. So how can I not support the guy? I think he still does. We're shitting on Jake Cawley if you're going to a splitie with Andre Arlowski, UFC legend. Dude, like two years ago, Chris, Chris Barnett went to a split decision with Rishon Jackson, five and six action Roshan Jackson. Yeah, but he got the dub and that's all the name of this baby. Wow. We are moving goalposts.

Also, you just, you said what was going to be the capper for me for you. This is a guy who fought out of Athens, Georgia. Yeah, I know. I mean, it's the 2020 is the year of the dog. I mean, we've got, we got the national champion, Georgia Bulldogs, our boy, Matt Stafford, NFL Super Bowl champion. And you're going to bet against Chris Barnett from, you know, formerly of Athens, Georgia? Yeah, formally. His topology says he fights out of Tampa.

I guess he had to get out of Dodd. because he, you know, couldn't handle the heat in the kitchen or something. I don't know what was going on there. Wow. So this is not just become a financial battle. This is a personal battle here. Jake Collier versus Chris Barnett. Oh, yeah.

This is, I'm all in writing. I'm nervous now. You're a Cardi Campaigner. I'm a Barnett bandwagon. Like, that's where I'm at. Give me Chris Barnett. Give me Beast Boy Bandwagon, Huggy Bear Band, whatever you want to call it. That's the bandwagon.

We're on. I'm taking him at plus 330. Listeners, choose your side on this one. Call your campaigner, Barnett, Bandwagoner. This is like if you're in Alabama and you get a new neighbor and you go over and you say, who you for, that's what they say. And the question is Alabama or Auburn, Michigan, Ohio State, who you for, these rivalries, Packers, Bears, who you for.

For no-bets Bard, who you for? Are you a call-your campaigner or are you a Barnett-Bannwagoner? and we need to know before we continue any sort of relations. That's right. Because this is tested now. This is, I'm going to be nervous. I'm going to be on eggshells for this one to see if my guy R.C. can pull this off. I'm going to shotgun and R.C. Cola right before the fight starts just to give Rodney some power.

Oh, I love. See, you can't call him Rodney. He's choosing not to be Rodney, though. He's Jake. He's Jacob. Like, what a Jacob. Come on. Be Rodney.

Rodney is a name. I'll speak for all jakes out there. I hope there are some listening. Not every Jake is a Jacob. I mean, I guess that's fair. He is officially Rodney Jacob Collier. Oh, he's just Rodney for me. He's Rodney, he's R.C.

He's whatever you want to be. I mean, Rodney's a great name. I know, right? That's a fat, heavy way, man. I was like, it's the best name. It's like, why are you not Rodney? Rodney is an optimal name. That's a fat heavyweight net.

We've spent far too much time on this not very good fight. I don't think we've spent enough. But alas, we'll continue. It's a women's featherweight bout. Norman Dumont going up against Daniel Wolfe. Norman Dumont, the same price as Jay Collier, minus 410. Daniel Wolf plus 330. Yeah.

Norma Dumont. A minus 410. It has to be as similarly shocking as Jake Collier as a minus 410. Oh, I couldn't disagree more. Well, the good news is we're actually on the same side because I parlayed up Norman Dumont at minus 3.30 because I watched Danielle Wolf's contender series fight. And anyone with any sort of MMA chops, which I believe Norman Dumont does have some, should be able to handle Daniel Wolf. She got leg kicked and had no idea what to do with herself. I get she has the boxing resume.

2714. I don't know if it's the rules, so I'm not that familiar. I don't know if it's the rules, but zero knockouts in 41 boxing fights? I mean, it wouldn't be the rules. Yeah, like I don't know. No knockouts? Was she doing four-rounders? I didn't look at her boxing resume at all.

If she was just like a four-rounder, like, fighter, that wouldn't at all surprise me. Don't get it going. Though it didn't get a knockout out of there. She actually, like, that contendezed serious fight, like, she was, like, getting outstruck, like, for real. I want to say the stats on it was like, she got, like, almost, like, close to doubled up on the significant strikes.

I don't know. She's 38. I don't have, like, a ton of, like, I don't really have any confidence in her. I think Norman DeMont just just come in, dump her on the ground, and finish her. I mean, that's exactly correct. That's why, like, when you say, this is the exact thing I'm talking about for the previous fight, where she should be, Norman DeMont should be a minus 14 favorite.

She's, she is not the best fighter that's ever existed, but she is a real legitimate M.A. fighter. She is big. She is a BJAJ Brown Belt. You know, she can do some things. She has a win over Felicia Spencer. Who is actually a good fighter? Granted, maybe she shouldn't have got it, but the fact that she fought Felicia Spencer to a split

decision is far more accomplished than Daniel Wolfe, who wasn't even a great boxer, doesn't appear to be a great MMA fighter, is 38 years old, and I don't know what she does well. Because like you said, she's nominally supposed to be a good striker. She wasn't even that good at that in the contender series. Like, I don't. At all. She's also, she's also, she's 27 and 14 in a weight class that is. very populated.

Like she's the golden glove champ, everything, everyone giving her those credit there. But she was never able to join the Olympics because her weight class was not in the Olympics. And then in 2020, when they finally added it, she got cut during the trials. Yeah, I just don't, I don't see it is the answer here. And so, like, if you're, if, for me, the clearest argument I can make for the Chris Barnett fight is the odds of the same for Barnett. for Wolf and one of those people has a way better chance of winning that fight. I actually, I'll agree with that. Being on the giant chalk square plays that I am on, I will agree that Chris Barnett has

a, in my opinion, has a better chance of winning that Daniel Wolf does. Yeah. So she is Norma Dumont minus 410 is the last piece of a four-legged parlay. Because, I mean, we say it every week. Four-leg parlays have never not hit. I mean, they can't miss. I spend weeks on end racking my brain to remember a time where a four-leg parlay lost, and I've yet to come up with one. I know.

Every week when I have a three-leg parlay, I'm like, I got to find a fourth because once you have the fourth, it can't fail. And it was pretty easy because I just took the chalkiest chalk that can be chalked with Chamae of at minus 1050, 2-9 at minus 4-10, Almeda minus 660. God, you're speaking sweet nothings to me right now. I mean, I am, find the guy that likes chalk more than me. You can have a hard time. And you put all that chalk into a pot and you cook up a stew and it cashes out a plus 109, baby. So just all those very chalky numbers coalesce into a pretty tasty line. I like it for like Parlay minus 109.

That's just sharp shit right there. Come on. It's never missed. It's sharp. It's hard. It's hard. It's money, baby. What can go wrong?

It's MMA. Freak things never happened. Come on. Never happened. These are easy rolling. All right, Norman Dumont is the pick for us. Last thing we're going to get into, it's a men's bantamway bat, Bout, Chad, and Hellenger going up against highly Allotang.

Fight goes the distance, minus 163. Fight does not go plus 120. Right now you can get Alatang for minus 170, and Heliger plus 145. Again, I took a lot of these lines last week. I know people get annoyed when, you know, the line has moved. whatever. I took Al-O-Tang minus 142. I think it's going to be a good fight.

I think it's going to be exciting on the feet. Both these dudes, they've got pretty good power for the Bantamweight Division, both coming off a knockout wins. On the feed, I think it is a pretty close fight. I know Anhellinger is on a 10-fight win streak. I'm not overly impressed with the resume of the 10-fight win streak. You know, a lot of guys that were close to 500, not in the UFC. The disrespect to rise FC, Jess.

Yeah, yeah, a couple 500 fighters, you know, and then he gets the UFC and he fights Jesse Strader who is not by any means a world beater. And Strader was giving him everything he could take for those first two rounds. A couple of the scorecards were 1919. One of them was 2018 Strader, and then he finds the knockout. I think Aletan can hang with him on the feet, but I really do think he's got a grappling advantage there as well. I think he has more past a victory than Enhalinger does. And in Enhalinger's two, you know, the contender series in the UFC. He's been taken down nine times in those two fights and controlled for over 10 minutes.

He's not great on the ground or the mat. And I think Aletang can use that if necessary. And if not, I think it's going to be close enough on the feet that he can outpoint him. And I think there is always the knockout. I mean, Al-Tang hits hard, dude. So I just think there's more past the victory for Al-Latang and what should be a really close fight. So I will side with highly Al-Alding. I think that's a great bet.

I don't have anything on this fight. I wanted Alatang to be slightly lower. I wanted him to be... What did you get him at? Minus 142. Yeah. See, that's... He's minus 170 now.

If he was minus 150, I would be in. I just... And I don't think that number's going to come back down for a play for me. But just because of... I do think it is competitive on the feet, and that gives me some pause, just about betting a guy. I don't feel like...

I don't feel confident. it in Al-Tang, but I do think he's going to win this fight. If he was a little lower priced, I'd probably take the shot. But, you know, Godspeed to you. Thank you. Thank you. I do appreciate that. And that's it.

Those are the bets. That's what we have for UFC 279. If we missed the fight, that means we have absolutely no action on it. So there's really no point in us talking about it. So my bets are as followed. We're going to be all over the place with this in terms of orders to follow along. Irene Aldana Money Line, highly outtank. money line minus 142, Kevin Holland money line minus 150, Kutalaba Walker under one and a half plus

110. Akeem Daoud do money line minus 190. Almeda Turcalsh under one and a half plus 100. Ligianli money line minus 240. Hamzaa Chamaev, KOTKO plus 115. Then I parlayed up, call you. Shout out to my guy Rodney. Jelten Almeda, Hamzaa Jemai, that pays out at minus 161.

I want to add, I forgot to mention this. I want to add a Jelton Almeida, Hamzat Sharmai of B. both winning inside the distance parlay. Not available in any of the books. Yeah, I really hoping I can get it for like a minus 150 or something, because that would be real tasty. That would be real tasty. Then I did violence parlay.

Walker Kutalaba doesn't go the distance. Almeida Turcals doesn't go the distance. Shemaya Diaz doesn't go the distance. That pays at minus 105. And then lastly, a little five-leg action. Call your Almeida. Lee Jang-Lee, Norma Dumont, Hamzaa Shemaya, that pays out of everything.

plus 184. Those are my bets for UFC 279. A whole lot of action and a whole lot of chalk. You, both of those are true. I have less action and certainly less chalk. I've got Chimai of Diaz over one and a half that's minus 150. D. Rod, boy, Daniel Rodriguez, plus 165. I have Rodriguez-Holland over two and a half at minus 115.

I have Walker Kutalaba over one-and-half at plus 120. Huggie Bear, Chris Barnett, plus 3.30, the Barnett bandwagon all aboard Choochoo. I also have the Collier Barnett over two and a half at minus 110 because it's a heavyweight over. And speaking of heavyweight overs, catchweight 220 pound overs, very narrow scientific window we're targeting here, over one and a half on that catchweight 220 pound fight of Jailton Almeda and Toon College at plus 140. and then super chalk parlay, just taking all of Conner's books, Chimayev, Lee, Almeda, Dumont,

all tossed into a pot, giving you out a plus 109 soup, and it's going to be good soup, just delicious, delicious chalky soup. Good soap. Ain't nothing like a chalk soup. So those are the bets, those are the plays. That's the action we've got for UFC 279.

I'll be watching it on Saturday night. Jed will be watching Frank Gore, Adrian Peterson, maybe a little BYU Baylor mixed in there. Levion Bell, Adrian Peterson. Who did I say? Frank Gore, who already boxed like a month ago. Sorry, I got my running backs mixed up there. Levyon Bell, Adrian Peterson, under the lights.

A little BYU Baylor late night action. Can't say I respect it. But he will be doing that. So UFC 279, that's that. We're back next week. UFC Apex 60 UFC Apex 60 Sandhagen song

Yeah It's a fight card It's certainly a fight card You are not wrong about that We will talk to you then Have a break Love you guys