MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Nate Diaz Pull Off The Upset Against Jake Paul, Plus Best Bets For UFC Nashville

Episode Date: August 2, 2023

Fresh off the heels of UFC 291, the combat sports world keeps the hits coming with another mega weekend of fist-fighting action with the long-awaited showdown between Jake Paul and Nate Diaz taking place in Dallas, while Cory Sandhagen takes on Rob Font over at UFC Nashville on Saturday. And with all that action, No Bets Barred is back to run you through the best bets of the weekend. With regular host Conner Burks traveling to cover the Paul-Diaz fight, Jed Meshew recruited MMA Fighting.com's Alexander K. Lee to jump in and break down some bets this weekend. Topics discussed include Diaz's chances to pull off the upset against Paul, whether Font could be a live dog against Sandhagen on short notice, the bevy of barnburners set for Saturday on the Nashville undercard, and more. Tune in for episode 56 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Alexander K. Lee: @AlexanderKLee Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster,

The Downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible.

What is up, y'all? It's another edition of No Betts Bard, and you might be listening and saying to yourself, that doesn't sound like the dulcet tones of Connor Birx, and you are correct, because it's our hero. our fearless leader Jed Meshu is taking the reins. Because Connors,

Connor's got things happening this weekend, guys. The MMA hour is live in Dallas for Jake Paul versus Nate Diaz. Maybe that's Diaz Paul. I'm not entirely sure which way I feel like going. But with Connor on the road, we decided, hey, let's get somebody to step in for him. Let's let this man do the work. And because I so graciously appeared in Conner's place on Tough Hang this week,

his tough hang co-host, his tough-hank compatriot has so graciously agreed to appear in Conner's place on No Betts Bar and I'm talking of course about the Prince of Positivity himself, Alexander Cayley, AK. How are we doing? Hi everyone. People are getting a lot of us in the last 48 hours, Jed. I'm just imagining someone just wrapping up the Tough Hang podcast and then this just popping up next on the playlist and boom right into No Best Bard with Jed shoe and A.K. Lee. I'm happy to be here. I hope other people are happy that I'm here. And I'm really actually excited to talk about this weekend's events. Yeah. It's a look, those people are just going to be, this is a pleasant surprise for them.

Because the more of you and us, you and I together, the better. I've long said that, even when you ignominiously kicked me out of the wonderful missed fist call in to to tyrannically run it solo. That was years ago now. That was years ago now. But you know what? I can hold the grudge, buddy. Some wounds never closed all the way. Let me tell you, if there's one thing I can do, it's a hold on to something till the bitter. Let's just hop into it because there's frankly sort of a lot to talk about this week.

Am I allowed to tell people to not follow my gambling advice ever on a show where we're about to talk about gambling advice? Well, of course, Connor and I say that just about every week. Not about you, but about us. You should for no reason. You should for no reason. Just mention me. You should go like, and especially A.K. Lee, don't follow it.

He does the predictions every week on NAMUFINN.com. Expressly, not for gambling purposes. Please do not ever gamble on this man's words. Not every week, because the last two weeks I had to do those. You did. Not the last two, because you did 291.

You sat out for bad. Uh-huh. What? You got to see the de facto women's bandamweight title fight. All right? You are a lucky man. Who did you pick? for that fight by the way uh i picked myubuina silva i

nice and what was the what about the gambling angle what was the i didn't listen to that no bet's part what was the uh what did you just will tell people stay away from that fight oh i might have bet oh no i picked holly home until the night of the fight when she walked out and was like oh she looked super old uh she did and so i ended up betting a pretty hefty amount to sort of get back to square one but i had a bet down on uh holly home by decision I believe was the gambling angle because, you know, it's how it goes. Yeah. But it's enough about things long ago.

Let's briefly talk about 291 before we hop into this weekend's events. Because this weekend we got we got all sorts of action. I don't think we're going to talk about all of it, but we've got one and PFL holding events on Friday. PFL playoffs are starting with a couple of notable fights. We've got one Rugrug versus Buccecha, John Linnaker in action. so a lot going on on Friday, but Saturday is the big one. UFC Nashville headlined by Corey Sandhagan versus Rob Font, and then the actual biggest one, Jake Paul Naitiaz.

We're going to get into all that, but very briefly, I just want to talk about 291 for a minute. Connor is not here, but I do happen to know his results from last week, a winning week for Connor up to 2.84 units. Didn't do great on singles, but cash two parlayes, and that's all it needs. I myself also had a winning week. I was up three and a half units. Did much better on singles.

And cashed the one, the one parlay I had was a gimmick parlay of Michelle Paheta by decision and Alex Beheada by decision, just parlaying both of those two up. And so Michelle Pahedda bounced, but Alex Pahedda actually won by decision. So it became. a single. It became a single that ended up winning because I put like the smallest. I put a dollar

on it and it was plus $2,700 for both of those by decision. Still ended up being, you know, like plus 600 or whatever it was for Betta. Damn. That was smart though. That was the Pettetta by decision. Well, I mean, I of course would have gone Yon by decision. That would have scared me away. But yeah, man, gutsy. Gutsy. Gutsy Pettita by decision. I like that. That's a good gimmick. That's a good gimmick. I also thought Yon was winning and I ended up losing my money there. was your big single? What was your big single that landed? Besides that one, obviously. So I had, I had Derek Lewis and Justin Gagchi both as singles. Derek Lewis was plus 210 when I got him, so cashed that. And then I had, you know, I had Otis Medich as well by as a plus 175 and Jake Matthews

inside the distance were sort of all the singles. Your boy, Jake Matthews. You know what? He's still working it out for you. Look, he's your faith in him. Yeah. I, I thought it was a by-low opportunity on him against the Q's own, he was not a huge favorite against the debutante who is pretty mid. Uh, I will also say I was, I was freaking six seconds away from cashing a Bobby Green by decision ticket. Yeah. If Tony doesn't roll for that knee bar and then that happens. But, you know, ifs and butts, candies and nuts. This, uh, this, uh, this, uh, this, uh, this, Tony Ferguson losing streak has just been one of the most miserable experiences, I think, for any fight fan, whether you're a gambler, non-gambler, it's just been a bad time.

Yeah. It's been such a bad time. I mean, it would have been great if he could have held out for six seconds. But he couldn't even do that for you. I bet you were not the only person out there, I think, who had. I am certain that I was not alone. I also, I won't, not that far off, Blahovic by submission prop bet at plus 500. So a couple of close calls.

Heavyweight overs took a shot last week. We are still all time doing well on heavyweight overs, 13 and 10 overall for plus one and a half units. But Derek Lewis did not let that get past seven minutes. So tough scenes. A.K. briefly, how did you feel about 291 before we hop into everything this week? It was so enjoyable. What a fun card that was. I was a little distracted.

I was covering Crawford's masterpiece win over. Earl Spence Jr. That was just magnificent to watch. And a pretty good card overall. I did I did run Bud Crawford. So that was pretty fun too. Nice. Because I couldn't really watch it doing UFC coverage, but got to see a lot of people being like, this is incredible. And then I won. And then I got to go back and watch it. It was like, oh, this was in fact incredible. Was it just a straight up a bet on Crawford? Yeah, just straight up on Bud who was, I think like minus 150. Okay. Okay. Yeah. I remember, I was trying to remember who was the under. It wasn't crazy. Like neither guy was heavily favored. And why would they be?

The dude was massively favored, and I really thought Bud should have been much heavier favorite, and that bore out. So you saw minus, you saw minus 150, and you were looking at your chops. You're like, hey, wow, that's, let's go. And I paid off. That was fantastic. But yeah, USC-191, I think a lot of us like how it looked on paper, and it played out that way.

People said that the name value was on the main card, and I said, I was hyping up the prelims a lot. I was saying, I think you have a lot of potential for exciting finishes here. We definitely got some good ones. Roman Koppelov shoutout, robbed of a $50,000 bonus. And the main card wasn't even that sad. I think we were all afraid for Tony Ferguson, Malkiazza, Derek Lewis. Kesa, it was a little sad to see how rough he looks right now. He's on the other side of 30.

He was coming back from back injuries. And I think in any sport, those back injuries usually get worse, not better. I don't know. I'm trying to think of a sport where someone had back injuries and was able to come back at even like 80% of what they once were. Maybe Dwight Howard in the NBA, but even then, he was clearly declined from his prime. So I'm not saying Case is done, but I'm saying that performance was a line of a lot of people were discouraged by it.

And I wish Michael Case is the best. I know he's going to have a great career in broadcasting too. And if he continues to fight, I hope he gets some winnable ones because that was tough. Tony Ferguson, we went over it. Derek Lewis, there go, an inspirational moment. And then from there, you know, I think the main car was pretty good. Alex Padena, Blakhovich, I don't know how much action people were expecting. It was a tense fight to watch.

Maybe it wasn't the most action-packed fight, but I think there was a good bit of tension. And then you end up with an amazing headkick, which people are calling the 1-A-A or 1B knockout of the year along with Israel Addison, and Padena. So I thought really, really, really fun card. This is the kind of card. That's a perfect example. You don't need a real title fight at the top. I know they threw the BMF in there just so they could say, hey, I know that's a U.S.C.

review. You don't need it. You don't need it. Just give us name-out, give us logical matchmaking, and this is the kind of, MMA so sweet fun. We always say that. That's what this card was. It was fun.

Look, belts are fun. Totally okay with the BMF. I didn't even think about it. My big failing last week, because I, on straight predictions, I missed two. I missed Bejara-Bahovic, which I don't feel bad about incorrectly calling that fight. I thought Jan would win a very close fight, competitive. you know and then i just was dead wrong about quies i was like i feel like kiosk can probably take michael uh kevin holland down and i think i didn't uh didn't factor in the back injuries

ruin you i think that that's a great gambling tenant moving forward there's a back injury that guy's gonna lose he's just going to lose because i don't know the back's pretty important part of uh really life just any facet of life certainly for combat sports okay the good The next time Kevin Holland fights a grappler, I wonder what those odds are going to look like. Because I think people, I wonder if odds makers are going to be able to look at this fight and set the line, you know, somewhat like reasonably in Holland's favor because like, oh, look, he stopped Michael Keyes's takedowns. He's got grappling defense now. And I, I feel like the next wrestle he fights. If he fights like a Sean Brady or something, it might not go well for him.

But I don't know. Oh, Sean Brady is a pretty good matchup for him. I don't know next. Maybe. Who did you pick for him on Otno this week? For Kevin, I just want him. He keeps saying he wants to fight at 185. So I was like, oh, go up to 185. And you know who else to fight at 185? Michelle Pareda. So you two can fight each other.

And then you guys can figure out, I mean, Kevin Holland can figure out he probably belongs at welterweight. Michelle Palletta can figure out he probably belongs in middle weight. Yeah, there you go. I love that plan. Yeah. All right, that's 291. We've got a lot to talk about.

And to the chagrin of some people, they're going to be upset. They're going to be upset, AK. And I don't care. Because, sure, we're an MMA website. We're going to talk boxing first because it's the biggest thing happening this week. Probably the biggest thing happening this month. You know, you can, I guess, I guess your opinions can vary how much you think UFC 292 is a big deal. And it certainly is a great fight.

We're going to see if Sean O'Malley really does draw eyeballs like he certainly thinks he will. But Jake Paul Nate Diaz, it is the influencer boxing match that's, been building for 18 months, two years. It's the biggest thing happening this week. So that's where we're going to start because we got to talk about it, okay? How do we not talk about this? The kids are talking about it, Jed. The youths, the users are talking about this. And so before we get into the UFC National Card, I just wanted to fire out Jake Paul Nate Diaz takes. What are we things going to happen? Do you, I mean, the lines as they sit right now, Jake Paul, a minus 390. favorite the comeback on Nate Diaz at plus 280 the over under is set at seven and a half i believe

a k that this is a 10 round fight so uh non-nate round fight are giving us uh i mean the the the over under odds are basically a pickum minus 125 minus 110 on either end of it so the odds makers are saying it is equally as likely as not that we get a finish in this bout functionally so what a your thoughts on this fight? Is there anything that tempts you into a bet here? Oh, so much. So this is why people know I do not bet on MMA and I should definitely not bet on boxing because I see a lot of these big numbers and I'm like, wow, it can't hurt to sprinkle $2 on there, $5 on there, $10 on there. And that's how you end up just throwing $50 out the window because you think you're ahead of the game. You think you're smarter. You think this is combat sports.

anything can happen. It's how the town of Las Vegas was built. It's how the town of Las Vegas built. And while this is true about combat sports, and every now and then, you'll only need to hit on like one wild bit to really feel good about yourself and to tell yourself, yes, I am back. I am gambling is great. I get it. I understand the appeal.

And so this is, you know, I'm only doing this because I'm on the show, Jed, because I felt I had to dig deep into this. The first thing I'll say is when the fight was made, I think I was like most people. And I'm sure you're too. You were like, we were thinking Jake Paul is going to kill Nate Diaz, right? Oh, so when the fight was first, not even made, when the talk, when we knew that this was what was happening, when Nate was like, I'm going to leave the UFC, I'm going to go take over another sport. We all know what's coming. I was extremely confident Jake Paul would kill him.

I will say, after Jake Paul lost Tommy Fury, I felt that added something. I don't, it's ultimately not going to change my interpretation of what's going to happen in this fight. but if he had gone out there and beaten Tommy Fury, I think losing to Tommy Fury made this slightly more compelling in a very meaningful way. Because if he beats Tommy Fury, it seems very nonsensical to be fighting Nates. And maybe you at home are like, this is already nonsensical. And I can't totally disagree. But yeah, I'm with you.

When the fight was actually announced, it was like, I want to see what the odds are. Because I'll be backing Jake Paul that summer day. But Jed, now my mentality has changed. You're right. The Tommy Fury fight definitely affected how I was going to call this one, which is probably exactly what the Osmigists want. The Osmigists are probably happy that there's any doubt at all in Jake Paul's skills probably helped him make the lines a little bit more appealing for some people.

I mean, Jake Paul did not look good in that Tommy Fury fight. And I understand Tommy Fury. Tommy Fury is a boxer. He is, he is, you know, by the strictest definition of the word, he is a boxer. He's a classically trained boxer, of course. He comes from the Fury boxing family. He had kind of come up the more traditional way. Everyone likes to point to his record.

Oh, he's the record of guys he's beaten is like 12, like 174 and like 10 or something. And I'm like, yeah, that's boxing when you're starting off. Check the record of most pro boxers who have like, you know, 100 amateur fights before they go or, you know, 10 pro ballots before they fight someone meaningful, you beat up cans, you beat up, that's what Tommy Fierre was doing. It is one of, I want to briefly touch on that because it is one of my, I don't, I don't even know exactly how to frame this. One of the things that irks me the most in this, in MMA is the dismissal of, of that path forward and the idea that you should be fighting tough opposition right at the start of your career.

Yeah. I don't think that's true at all. Senseless. I think what, I think, and one way that you can just sort of very obviously view this is, boxing's been doing this for a really long time for well over 100 years. And they're doing okay. They think of how many sports have lasted 100 years and are still as meaningful and representative today.

They know what they're doing. There is a reason for this. And I think that it's a huge. huge blind spot in MMA that prospects, we try and rush along all prospects. If you are a random dude who is just starting out the first day, we're going to throw you against somebody evenly matched versus if you are Boehnickle and we are trying to rush you on and get there, sure, every once in a while you will get a John Jones. Like the Wyatt Earp theory applies. Law of Large numbers, one out of a hundred thousand is going to turn out to be that dude. The rest of them,

they're going to be learning bad habits or still figuring things out. Whereas instead, it's good to have you just beat dudes up for a while to learn how to beat people up. It's very important skill set to have and to manage all of this. And if you are getting into fights like that, you can fight people all the time. You can fight five, six times a year because you're not going into these big, hard draining battles that you need to take time off to recover.

It's one of the things I think MMA does the worst at, and that has always been a pet peeve, as you were saying, about Tommy Fury, and to an extent about Jake Paul and sort of their development process along the boxing lines. Yeah, I've seen people hold that against Habib, like, the point of Habib's record, they're like, oh, before the UFC, he was flooding nobody. He went like 20 and 0 or whatever, 50 and 0 against nobody's. I'm like, good, good, yeah, he was developing, he was skills. He was developing his body.

He was building. And guess what? He's maybe the great fighting. Sage Northcut should have been like 16 and O before we ever fought in the UFC, beating up boxcar willies and Jay Ellis is and whoever you want to drag out of there. It's so it's so dumb that we see someone go like four and O'N O'O in the regional scene and go like, oh, well, I want to see them in the UFC. I want to see them fight a top 50 guy.

I'm like, why? Why? Why do we do this? Also, just think of how much more fun it is when guys come into the UFC with those records. Yeah, it's great. With Ozit Maxim coming in at 16 and O, and you're like, okay, I'm going to stand up. And even if I don't know anything, I can just look at that number and say, I'm more interested. This is something, it is so much better down the line for development.

And it's just a little pet peeve of mine. So when you said that, I wanted to jump in. Yeah, no, it's important. And I will clarify, it's not like for anyone who watched any of those Tommy Fury fights. And some of them are pretty, I think they're pretty viewed. You can find something on YouTube, I think. It's not like he looked, Tommy Free look amazing in those. He looked awful in many of them.

He's still, like, he's fighting cans and not looking great. I think that's the issue. But he won that Jake Paul fight. I don't think there's a lot of controversy around it. Jake Paul did not look great. Tommy Fury didn't look great in that fight, frankly, but he looked much better than Jake Paul. So I can't help. You know what Tommy Fury look like?

A boxer. He looked like a dude who could jab and wasn't old and thus could do it for the entirety of a fight. I guess it. He just looked like a dude. who knew at least enough of what he was doing. And that was frankly all it took. It took base competency to finally defeat Jake Paul. Base competency and athleticism.

Because Anderson Silva is very competent. But he's a Methuselah. He's a thousand years old. He looked old. Yeah. And so like he can't do it. He cannot keep an output over eight and ten rounds. Whereas Tommy Fury could.

And that was it. Like that was literally the entirety of that fight was Tommy Fury. knows how to jab and keep his feet in position and has the gas tank to do this for eight minutes for eight rounds and i guess that's our big concern for nate dyes here is he's not he's the less he's he's less athletic he's smaller and i've just seen with jake paul that's pretty much usually all he needs to to win a fight with his uh rudimentary boxing kill i don't think that's an insult to jake ball i think anyone with his level experience he has rudimentary boxing skills that's just where he is right now doesn't mean he's i'm not saying he's like horrible i'm saying for his level of experience he's

exactly what you would expect him to be. His level of experience and resources. So I've turned. I've kind of turned. I'm like, I know it's a big athletic and gap, age gap, everything, size gap. But isn't Nate Diaz a good fighter? He's a good fighter. He's not a Methuselah, as you described Anderson Silva.

He is up there in fight years. He does have wear and tear. So I kind of like a lot of these Diaz option, like a lot of these Dias vets. Oh, okay. I know, I know. I can't help it. So I, I, I like Diaz by decision. I know what it's at.

That's what it's, I saw, yeah. Diaz by decision, according to our friends over at Draft Kings. Yeah. Let me find this out. Plus 750. Was that plus 750? I like that a lot because I don't think, I don't think Diaz can knock him out. That would surprise me a lot.

I don't know. I think the odds for Diaz-K are pretty hot. I can't see it. I can't. There's always a chance of. Ticchio, some kind of flory cut stoppage, but it's going to be a cut stoppage. It's more likely that Jake Paul is going to win by cutting Diaz, not the other way around. And Jed, I like even more.

I have some other things to look at, but I'll say it just right out the bat. I like Diaz by decision. And I like even more, Diaz to be knocked down and win plus 2000. Plus 2,000. Now, that's a very fun bet. I do think he'll get knocked down. I do think at some point, Paul's going to catch him, slowly knock him down. And that's what, you know, it's going to create a moment of excitement of the fight.

But otherwise, I think D.S. can scrap it out. So, and I won't go as far as predict, you know, you can go majority of decisions, split decision unanimous. I'm not comfortable even speculating there. Sure. But I like the odds of him win. So I would like, I may put down two singles, one Dias by decision and one Dias, uh, knocked down and win.

Well, the knockdown, knockdown but win is real Ireland win, but crumbs get, crumb gets the snitch. Shout out to Harry Potter people. Okay. I, I can't. I'm not with you on it. Okay. I think Nate Diaz just loses to people who are more athletic than him, basically at this point in time, in MMA.

Granted, boxing is a whole different world. There is a universe, I think, where Jake Paul just tries to get Nate Diaz out of there, gasses himself out, and then really gets into a problem, a la the first Conner fight with Nate. But I think because of that first Conner fight, Jake is probably not dumb enough to make that mistake. Maybe he has a very hot first round trying to put it on Nate and then settles into a better rhythm with his leaping weird jab and just power over hand rights. I think Jake Paul is going to win this fight. I'm going to have Jake Paul in a parlay, just a two-leg parlay with the other chalkiest person you could probably pick this weekend, which we'll get into. But I also, looking at the line, Jake Paul is favored to get a knockout. He is minus 150 for KOT, KOTQ on Draft Kings.

And I don't think that's happening. I think Nate Diaz is still Nate Diaz, incredibly tough. Outside of a cut stoppage, which I think is probably a little less likely than an MMA, just because there aren't elbows, there aren't the kicks. Yes, boxing gloves been known to cut. But I don't think this is low-level boxing. We're not going to be dealing with a huge volume of strikes coming from either end of this. I don't think.

going to be a lot of singles, a lot of pot shots. I doubt Nate busts open too badly that the fight cannot continue, particularly because a cut stoppage in this event feels bad. I feel like that would not be satisfactory to many of the fans. So I think he's going to make it to the cards. And the price on that, Jake Paul by decision or Tech decision is plus 350. That feels like that that's a huge delta between Jake Paul by decision and Jake Paul straight at minus 390.

I have a bet down on Paul by decision at that price. I think that that is probably pretty undervalued right now. Okay. Okay. I will tell people if they're a little unsure. I don't think go the distance is that bad. Just the fight itself goes the distance. If you're sort of, if you're out there and you really just feel like putting some

money down, but you're not comfortable saying Diaz or Paul, go to the distance plus 165. So, you know, it's not terrible. We're still getting plus money on that. But I think you're right. You should draw a line in the sand. You've got to be Team Diaz or Team Paul heading into this one. No half measures.

So plus 165 is nice and safe, but I agree. You either go, what did you say? Paul is plus $3.50 by decision. Paul plus 350 decision or Diaz plus $750 decision. I would tell people, pick a side, pick aside. I think that's very accurate. Just the thing I also noted that I want to point out because it seems insane to me. the knockdown totals,

Jake Paul to win and under one and a half knockdowns is minus 135, meaning that Vegas views that as the most likely outcome, is that Jake Paul wins and there is less than two knockdowns, which is either Jake Paul wins by decision or Jake Paul wins with one knockdown, which I don't know. It feels like that sort of is incongruous with, the idea of a of a TKO KO stoppage because if he gets one knockdown he's gonna he's not gonna one hit or quit Nate you know so it just feels a little incongruous to me I'm not

entirely sure what to do with it but I did note it and was like oh that's a bit odd but I like where we're out on the Paul Diaz do you have any other fights that you care about are interested in any bets on the rest of this boxing I'll at least touch upon it because we have some names on here this but before that I for anyone I If people want to really get crazy with the main event, it's not even that crazy. This is, this is influencer boxing.

This is Jake Paul we're talking about here. This is Nate Diaz making his boxing debut. How do you feel about DQ odds? So, Jake Paul to win by DQ at post 5,000. Yep. Very interesting. Just because I think that,

I think that Nate Diaz is a professional and won't do it. But it would be objectively hilarious if Nate just shot like a double leg. because he's losing. He's just like, shoot a double on the man. I'm not banking on that. I'm banking on, and by Diaz by DQ plus 6,500.

I'm banking more on like, I don't know, accidental low blow or not accidental. You know, shots are still too low. Rabbit, like too much rabbit punching from Diaz. Or either Jake or

either Jake or Diaz's crew just gets in the rain and starts being chaotic. Just something stupid happening, right? Like, I don't know. I imagine this is typical for any boxing matches, probably in the 5,000, 6,000 range. So there's a probably reason you don't bet on these things. But again, this is not a normal boxing match.

This is still influencer boxing. This is still Jake Ball. This is still Nate Diaz. This is still combat sports. So I may do it again. Like I said, if I'm betting on this card, I am, guys, I'm doing $2, $5 bets here. I do not like to bet on combat sports. So I would sprinkle it in just for fun.

But I have no confidence. But just letting people know, there's, you know, those DQ, DQ odds are always out there. And we are talking about chaos personified. in this matchup. I will also say that because I didn't even think about it until this exact moment. You're throwing, hey, I kind of think Nate can maybe win a decision. Honestly, getting a, if you think Nate's going to win a decision, there probably is a pretty good argument that the decision he wins will be split because this is boxing.

Tommy Fury won the split decision. Somebody's just going to give Jake around unless Nate is. really beating pillar to post. And that's plus 2,200 for NAPI split decision. So you could sprinkle a bunch of things, have some fun. That's it, though. This is how people, again, this is, you're right, this is how Vegas was built. This is how people are left destitute, this is how these online gambling websites, draft kings.com, by the way, great website, use the promo code at the MA hour. This is how these gambling websites become billion-dollar endeavors is. Take numbers. There's people here and there.

I can share, I can spare $5 on this. I could spare. Just letting people know. You know, it's fun. It's fun to talk about. I don't know how fun is to actually be committed to betting on this stuff. I guess I'm going to find out this weekend because I'm going to put my money where my mouth is in some of these things. Oh, you're going to have a great time.

I am. It's going to make it more interesting because I like both cards. I know we'll talk about Nashville more later. I like Nashville. I like the Jake Diaz card. But I'll like them a little more with that little extra, extra bit of excitement. The rest of the card, some huge favorites. Again, that's typical for boxing undercards.

Amanda Serrano and Heather Hardy, props to Heather Hardy for getting this fight, by the way. She has worked her way into quite the incredible, like, boxing career and at combat sports career in general, getting that, you know, putting in that work with Bellator. And, you know, being a champion earlier and probably getting the biggest pay days of her career now in the later stages of her career, that's what you like to see, right? Someone, someone who probably vastly underpaid earlier on and now cashing in those championships. X Heather Hardy, you get it. Huge underdog to Amanda Serrano, of course, a big, big, great fighter, heavily promoted by MVP, minus 2000 Serrano. So there's no value in that, I don't think, obviously.

But Serrano by KO minus 135, maybe a decent parlay piece, Jed? I don't know how you feel about that. I would just bet it straight at that price and not parlay it with anything. I'm going to put Serrano in my super chalk soup parlay because she can't be Heather Hardy. It's not going to add really anything to it, but might as well. You know, sometimes a dash of salt can really make a dish pop. Amanda Serrano is going to be the dash of salt for my chalk soup. Yeah.

And I, again, I like Heather Hardy a lot. I would not call her a live dog, frankly. Not even. As a accomplice as she is, this is her second fight was Serrano. It wasn't particularly close the first time. I don't see why I'll be different this time. So I'm not, I have no comment to Chris Avila, Jeremy Stevens, and I never will. The other, the other box match I'll talk about was Shadasia Green.

I think she's the biggest favorite in the card. Minus 20,000 against her opponent, Olivia Curry. Shadazia Green is a destroyer in boxing. She's 12 and 0, I think. She generally finished everyone. I couldn't find just an under six and a half. I think that would have been easy bet to take or easy parlay piece. So I'll go like if you really

If you really feel like you have to bet on something besides Paul Diaz Which you don't again, you know, we're just talking Paul Diaz from most by now But Shadaisia Green first winning in the first round plus 1,400 Now she hasn't done that in a bit she hasn't done that a bit It's a fun bet she hasn't done that a bit I admit I am super ignorant to the accomplishments of her opponent Olivia Curry I know she's seven and one that's pretty much all I know about her She's also very tough to put away she does not get knocked out so that's why

Shadija Green first round, KO is where it is, plus 1,400. But I'm also a really big believer in Shadija Green's punching power. And I think she's getting a huge platform here, probably the biggest platform she's had yet. And I wonder if she's just going to show out and just smoke a curry. So it's been a while for Greens

since Green's last first round finish, but she definitely has a potential. So again, if you're feeling frisky, you got a couple of bucks or a couple of loonies, as we say up here in Canada. And you're watching the whole card. Why not? Why not do it? If you're feeling froggy, just jump. That's right. And look, we did it. So if you hated everything, I'm sorry. It's time to talk about Nashville first. First, we're going to pay some bills with some lovely advertisements. So listen to those. And then we'll be back with UFC Nashville discussion.

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All right, we are back, and it's time for actual MMA discussion for, we were talking about this in the green room beforehand, A.K., pretty good card. Not going to lie, I may have disparaged it previously, somewhat low on name value. Let's at least be honest about that, but a lot of really, really fun fights on this UFC Nashville card, AK. before we hop into the bets and the breakdowns, overall thoughts on this card.

I like it. I don't think it was unfair of you, Jed, to judge most of these cards. That's, I think, the way it is with a lot of fight nights these days is just at a glance, it's hard to get super excited about them. You can usually look at the top two, three, five. You're like, okay, this part looks good. And then there's a lot of unfamiliar names, either recent contender series signings or fighters who have only fought like once or twice.

in this case, I think they have a good, great mix of veterans on there. They have some up-and-comers. I think they've got a couple of really, I think, interesting flyweight fights on there. So this one, it doesn't take long to see the appeal in it. But a lot of the cards these days, you have to dig a little bit deeper. And once you start digging in, you sort of start talking yourself into like, oh, this card's better than people think. I think I've said that I have no idea how many times on the preview shows that we do every week. and that's why people are always questioning my ratings like oh i think this card could reach like a

you know 8.8 out of 8 or like how good i think cards cards can be because i dig a lot before i do a lot of research for every card probably too much so i'm maybe uh talking myself into some fights uh more than they should be talked into but this card i think i think you saw jett i'm sure you've looked it over a bit and you're like you know didn't take much to see why a lot people are calling this uh a nice sleeper flight night card. Yeah, I still think you're too generous with your overall card rating scores, but that's that's just a difference in ideology, basically. But yeah, as I was diving into this one, again, very low on name value in general, but particularly the prelim fights, I mean, most of them are pretty much guaranteed to be bangers. So a lot of good action. We're going to start right at the top.

we're just going to do a breakdown of kind of everything. Some fights I don't have much to say on other than cool, and we'll just go through it that way. So right at the top, the main event, Corey Sandhagen taking on Rob Font in a 140-pound catchweight bout. The odds as it stands right now, Corey Sandhagen is your betting favorite at minus 340, the comeback on font at plus 270.

It's a five-round fight, of course. So the over-under is set at four and a half, minus 125 on the over. over the wide speculation as this thing is going to the cards. So I want to start right here, AK, I'm going to have action on this fight card. I'm going to have action on this main event as well. And I'm taking the underdog Rob Font. So one thing to note, the man who you once had ranked as a top five ban to wait. I absolutely did at one point in time have this man ranked as a top five Bainterweight.

To note about Mr. Robert Fon. coming in on short notice originally Corey Sandigan was supposed to be fighting Umar Narmakro Medov. It was going to be the arrival of Umar as far as I was concerned. He was going to make his true, hey, I am here.

I am the next champion. Be warned. Injured pulled out. Rob Front steps in on a couple of weeks notice. And I think we're getting a very competitive fight. So like I said, I'm going to be backing Rob Font. I am also taking the Conner

special of over one and a half rounds, the alternate fight line total as a parlay piece. That's minus 450. But let me give you my font breakdown here. I think this line is simply too big for me, is where I'm drawing the line. Last week I debuted this new idea that I was going to tinker with moving forward from a gambling standpoint of we're just going to bucket fighters into tears instead of I think this fighter's better or this fighter. I just think they're, I'm just going to put this.

in tears. Like, hey, these guys are about the same level. Maybe one's a little bit better. Maybe the style matchups a little bit better. But if they all fought the top 20 dudes, they're probably going to come out with pretty similar results at the end. And that puts them in the same bucket. I did that with Dustin Porre and Justin Gachie. It's like these two dudes, they have fought the same dudes over the past several years to eerily similar results. They're just similar fighters. And one of those fighters, you're getting at plus 130 and the others at minus 150. So if they're in the same tier, I'm going to take, and I feel confident about them being in the same tier, I'm going to take the underdog. You can convince me that Corey Santagin is in a one tier up

of Rob Font. You could convince me of that, but I'm not certain. I think there's a very good argument that they are in the same tier of fighter, and more specifically, think Corey Sandhagen is getting a little bit overvalued right now. Yes, he is coming off a tremendous performance against Marlon Vera. A split decision that was nonsense. He won four of the rounds convincingly, not sure what happened there. But look, back-to-back wins, Song-e-dong, Marlon Vera. That's great.

My issue with Corey Sandhagen is those fights feel like they line up very differently against Robert Font here. Rob Font has suffered a couple of losses. He lost to Marlon Vera, and he lost to Josealdo, but before that had won four in a row, and he just rebounded with a huge one over Adrian Yanez. This is a striking battle, and that's the thing is. Corey Sandhagen beat Marlon Vera by mixing it up, by scoring takedowns when he needed, out-voluming him on the feet.

And that's the way, that's the book on beating Vera. He is a big power shot guy. Doesn't throw a huge ton of volume out there, and you can sort of outwork him. And Corey Sandhagan, terrific job in mixing those two approaches to never really let Vera get started. Rob Font is not that dude. It's just not the same guy.

This is going to be a long-range striking battle for most of it. I don't think Corey Sandigan is going to go to wrestling that much, even if he does. I don't think he's going to have a huge amount of success. And in a pure striking batch-up, maybe I favor Corey Santagin very slightly. He has a better diversity of strikes and probably a little bit more power. but Rob Font, a very, very good boxer, very good at using that range.

And we just saw against Adrian Yanez, a guy who I think is an incredible boxer. Rob Font sort of dummied him. So the coming in on short notice makes me a little concerned here, but I think this is just going to be largely a boxing, a striking matchup. Maybe Sandhagen has more success with the kicks, but I think we're talking about a fight that's going to be competitive. And so at this price, I'm getting Rob Font at a very large, 270 plus 270 i'm taking a shot on rob font uh to to get the w here why not font by decision um

because i feel a little more concerned about that one it's a great question because i certainly considered it uh five round fights give me a little bit of pause always yes corey santagin uh is incredibly durable the only time he's been finished the algeramain sterling submission five rounds is just a long time. Rob Font is a pretty solid finisher historically. If this were a three-round fight, it wouldn't even be a question. I'd be taking Rob Font-Fi decision. That extra 10 minutes, you never know. It just feels like I'm playing with a little bit more fire there. And if you look at the line, I mean, Rob Front by decision is plus 550. So you're definitely getting a bigger price. And that's maybe worth it, honestly. That might be worth the extra juice. But still at plus 270,

it's a big number and it encapsulates maybe something freaky happens we get you know Corey Sandhagen rolls his ankle and and something weird knock on wood don't want that to happen but it's the price is big enough as it is straight up but I understand the appeal of a Rob Fomp by decision bet yeah I just can't see I like the Rob underdog pick I just can't see him knocking Cory out or God forbid submitting him plus 2000 submission that would be incredible a little club and sub, low club and sub action. That would be fantastic. Right.

So I would definitely tell people to stay away from that. It seems highly unlikely, but we've seen stranger submissions. And again, club and sub that I don't bet normally, but that has to be one of the most gratifying or disappointing or more disappointing. It's more often disappointing, probably. Always disappointing. It's always disappointing. You're always on K.

And then that happens. The guy is essentially knocked unconscious, but then the guy slipped, then the guy on top slips an arm triangle. Don't worry. We're going to be. talking about that situation in a couple of fights and how I was very disappointed by the submission. I don't know if I'm betting this one at all. I might throw, I see, I thought you were going to go Sanhagen tell me that this was part of your chalk soup parlay. It is not. Okay, if I were doing,

I have not thought of a parlay ahead of time. If I were doing a chalk soup, I'd probably just throw Sanhagen in just straight up to win. I wouldn't, I wouldn't pick it. Yeah, well, all these methods are also plus. So I would just go Sanhagen to win. But yeah, that font by decision is appealing. I don't want to jump to the next fight yet, but I will say both San Hagan and Tatiana Suarez are pretty big favorites. So I'm interested to see what kind of ideas you have here to spice these up a little bit. So, I mean, you already did the first one, just going, just going font. Though I will say, if I'm picking font, I'll go that extra, I'll go the extra mile and go, I like that plus 550 decision. That's, that's hard not to look at if you're picking font.

So how do you, if you're thinking San Hagan's winning, what do you think is happening here? There's just not, so I just tell people, San Hagan Decision Plus 140, K.O. Plus 175. Neither of those are particularly appealing. Like I said, I'd rather just put him in as a parlay just to win straight up because you're right. So much can happen. Decision, sorry, submission plus 650 sounds great. Rothont has been submitted once. His only stoppage lost is Pedro, yeah.

Yeah, his grappling and submission. With a gilly. Yeah, his grappling submission events is pretty strong. And I'm not saying saying he can do it. In both cases, I guess I don't see this. He's incredibly durable. He's incredibly durable. That's why I have the over one and a half.

Both dudes tremendously durable. The over one and a half alternate line on this is minus 450, which I feel ecstatic about the line being that point for this one. I'm saying it at minus 340 on another site. It could be on another site. I have my parli. built on draft kings okay as you should as you should um but yeah there's probably other lines for that so over one and a half that's a very solid bet i can't i it's only how much only minus four only minus 450 on draft kings i can't see this it would be very shocked to see some guy end this fight

early um i if it's going to end early i think it would be an injury sort of situation something something wonky happens like that you know yeah yeah again fingers crossed that doesn't happen for other guys. So yeah, I'm comfortable just saying either do Sanhagen to Parlay or if you have fonts. You're right, Jed, love the upset pick, but I'm saying go that extra and get, go take a bite of that 550. Hey, if you're feeling that way, I support you. Next fight up our co-main event, Tatiana Suarez

taking on Jessica Andrage women's straw weight battle. Suarez is your favorite at minus 360. the comeback on Drog is at plus 285. The overrun on this fight is two and a half with the under at minus 2.10 comeback at plus 160 for the over. A.K., what do we think about this co-main event? I like the matchmaking. I mean, it's not really matchmaking.

I just got into just stepping in for Virna Genjiroba, I believe. I'm trying to see how much notice that was. I think it's not super late. It's like two months. It's like a little, sorry, six weeks, six weeks. So it's not like a crazy short notice thing. It's not quite, it's somewhere between short notice and just alternate fight. Right, right.

It is a little less time. But that's also somewhat normal for Jessica Andra. She's pretty. She has made a living doing this in the most recent years. She is doing the stay ready. I'll jump in on any opportunity path. Now, that might be starting to catch up on her. As I said before, Soros is a pretty huge favorite.

I see her at minus 360 on Traff Kings. it makes sense. So she's making it finally here, making her proper turn to 115. She had her comeback fight at 125 against Matanda La Rosa. It looked pretty good in it. She's going to have a size,

strength, grappling advantage over Jessica Andrage, of course. And I was trying to make a case for myself like, oh, well, does Jessica Andres really get dominated by grapplers? And I'm like, okay, we just saw Aaron Blanchfield two fights ago, manhandler. Valentina Shepchenko, when they fought,

used a lot of takedowns also to neutralize her and eventually finish her. I mean, all she did was body lock. and man, yeah. Yeah. And Titanic Sorris is an elite grappler, will be bigger,

has a lot of these same characteristics that have foiled Androge in the past. So I definitely can't just straight up say, oh, well, go Andrage, you know, plus 285. But I see somewhere

Andrage by K.O. plus 500. And that's, if you're picking Andrage to win, I think that has to be the only way. I don't see her. Not, not that Tantan Suarez hasn't gone to at least one decision that we're like,

oh, like maybe her going the distance isn't always great for her. But I just don't see that in this scenario. I think she has to get caught. So for me, almost like what I said with Sanhagen, I'd rather throw Suarez into a chalk soup. But I like Androge a lot. And I do think she's a serious test and a more tougher opponent than Vrna Janjarova, who's a good fighter. But I think Androge is just a bit better.

I like that. I like that plus 500, Androjosh. A chaos. A chaos. Yeah. Look, if you're going to bet Jessica and Drudge, just take the K0 prop, that is, that's what's going to happen if she gets it done. This is the fighter I was referring to as chalk soup, Tatiana Suarez.

Ah. I think, I think there is a legitimate argument that Jessica and Drudge might be getting close to cooked. She, the, the Janja non-fight is just so concerning to me. Aaron Blanchfield, I can, I can write off, particularly because, you know, It's weird to say she might be in cooked. This is our fourth fight this year already. And she put the wood to Lauren Murphy in January.

Aaron Blanchield, you can write that off. It's upper weight class against the future champion of that weight class. And for my money, the best pound for pound female fighter on the planet. Janjan, really concerning. Like, that should have been a fight that lined up well. And she looked disrespectful in the way that she approached it, just leading with her chin and charging in and got, got clipped.

And that makes me concerned about what she is in general. And oh, by the way, remember just a moment ago when I said Aaron Blanchfield's the best pound female fighter on the planet, Tatiana Suarez is going to be in that conversation. She's coming off a super long layoff and she got back in the cage for the first time in, like, four years in February. Look, it was maybe a little slower than some anticipated, but four years of a long time off. I think Suarez is going to be back in the groove. and very quickly I believe this woman is going to claim the straw weight belt.

I think that this is just a situation where in Drogh might be too tough for her own good. She keeps taking fights that maybe she shouldn't like this one, like the one with Blanchfield. And I think we're going to get an extremely similar fight to what happened with Blanchfield. I love Suarez to win. I think Suarez is a really good chance to get a finish. I looked around, couldn't decide between submission or T. KO props basically for that. And so then it's like, do I really want to go inside the distance?

I'm not getting that much extra value on his Suarez inside the distance. I mean, you are getting some minus 175 versus what she currently looking at, like minus 360. So there's some there. But I instead was like, eh, I'll just throw Suarez in the parlay. So the four leg parley was Suarez in it. And I think she got a great chance to get this done. What's what's in this parlay so far? Jake Paul?

Jake Paul, Tatian Suarez and Sandhagen font over one and a half. And Amanda Serrano, which it is a four-leggar brings us to plus 106 on the parlay. The Amanda Serrano doing doing God's work to get it from minus 105 to plus 106. Just sneaking it over that plus line. Just getting us into the plus money. And so we move on. Oh, well, I will. Oh, you got something else?

Well, just no, no, no temptation on. Well, I'll say there's a reason you're not tempted by this. Suarez by decision plus 260. No, I think she can stop her. That might be fools gold because Jessica Andrage, her last, she gets finished. When she loses, she gets finished. She has not lost by decision since the second Rose fight. And that was three years ago.

So, like you said, if you feel like she, probably getting a little change. She's only 31, but she's like 40 in fight years. She's 35. This will be a 36 pro fight. She's fought a lot. This is also her fourth fight of the year and we're in July.

I largely don't like that. I think that that is historically has proven to be a very dangerous thing to do to fight with that level of frequency at this high level. And mostly though, I think we're, I genuinely think we're just getting a carbon copy of the air in Blanchfield fight. Patiana Suarez is huge and a great crappler. I think this is going to look almost identical to the Blanchold fight. The question in my mind is whether Suarez goes for ground and pound finish or gets a choke,

I would say slightly more likely that we get a submission finish here for Suarez that she locks up an R&C, but I could see either outcome. So I think it's, I just, I'd be a, won't be stunned. I wouldn't be a little bit surprised that this fight doesn't, goes to the judge's scorecards. Jessica Andresch, 36th pro fight. She's been fighting for 12 years. She started at 19. And she's been in some battles, too.

She has been in some, she's been in some fights. She's been in monstrous wars. She does not fight a low octane safe style. She has been in some serious fights. And 12 years is the magic number, too, man. Is that what you, is that, is that, was that your, uh, your stint? 12 years is where it starts. 12 years isn't a cliff, but...

And depending on division as well, depending on division, of course. Certainly, but... And they're always outliers, but by and large, if you're doing 12 years, because it's not just 12 years of fighting, it's 12 years of training.

Yeah. It's all of the... It's the gym fights that you don't see. It's just a really long time to put your body through that level of duress. Maybe it won't. Maybe it's just the Janjanon's better than I thought, and And Androja overrated her,

and Aaron Blanchfield is amazing. And And And And Andraja, just still has it. But particularly at straw weight, I think that will help her. But I think even if even if we are getting the best Jessica Androge that has ever been, I still like Tatia on Suarez to beat her. Yeah. And respect to Jessica Androj, UFC Hall of Fame. She better be making the UFC Hall of Fame. UFC Hall of Fame. Whenever she retires, she'll be getting a damn of that. You can be sure. Oh, yeah, yeah. So I will officially say, stay away from Suarez by decision. I, we'll do a warning. We don't do a lot of,

I feel like you don't do enough warnings on the show. You and G.C. You don't do enough warnings. I will say, don't be like me. I saw that plus two 60 Suarez by decision. I started rubbing my chin like, hey, that seems like it. But again, And Josh just does not lose by decision often. Like it hasn't happened in three years. When she loses, she's going out in her shield. So stay away.

That's a stay away from Suarez by decision. All right. We are getting a little bit long on time in general. So we're going to make, we're going to move through the rest of the card quicker. Because I don't have something. I don't have something to say about every fight. so we can move real quick. That's the thing is I don't have things to say about all of them.

Many of these fights are going to be very competitive and good, but they just aren't as substantive as the big three fights this weekend that we've talked about. So moving on, we are talking the featured light heavyweight, not the, because they're a multiple actually, a light heavyweight fight happening on the main guard. It is Dustin Jacoby taking on Kennedy, Inzuchuku. Inzuchu is your current betting favorite at minus 155, the comeback on Jacob. be at plus 130, the over under set at two and a half, slight money towards the over on that one. AK, do you have any thoughts on this fight that need be shared?

No, love this fight. Can't wait to watch it. I will enjoy it, stress-free with no bets on it. I'm trying to see if Justin Kobe hits your 12-year. Oh, yes, Justin Kobe is in year 13 of his pro career. And while I think he's still great- He also has a lot of miles on him. In kickboxing and MMA.

A lot of miles. Yeah, and I love Dustin Chikovie. I think it still be a great competitive fight, but I think Insichuku is trending in the right direction. And I think his minus, when I see here on that, minus 25 is just right. I wouldn't bet I wouldn't bet against it. So I have been a big Kennedy-Nzachuku believer

when you were talking earlier about the club and sub being terrible. I, for 288 was like, man, I love Insichu. All of his wins functionally are by knockout. He's never submitted anybody. And Devin Clark, man, loves to be finished. Loves to be finished. Give me Inzuchuku by KOTKO as my prop bet. And gigatine choke win for Inzuchu.

Heartbreaking stuff. But in general, I love Inzuchuku. I do think he is trending upward. His physicality is amazing. That being said, a lot of his bread is buttered with his kickboxing game by being a big, huge dude who hits pretty hard and having a little bit of. of aptitude for what's going on and against Dustin Jacoby. Not entirely

sure that game works that well. Jacoby an accomplished kickboxer. Certainly the better technician here. He's got a deeper set of skills. So I wasn't entirely sure what to go. And if I felt like the price on Inzachuku and a fight that could be competitive was

viable. So, AK, this is going to be your first. I'm excited for you because I'm bringing the chat GPT. But I had to turn. I had to turn to the robot. because I couldn't figure out what I wanted to do. How did it do last week? Chat GBT, GBT, I didn't have one last week.

That GPT has been incredible. It is nine and three overall. Oh, my. Pay out of plus four, four point six units. It is printing money, the chat. The robots know I've been trying to tell you all to get on board. We lost flyweight unders. Chat GPT is picking up the slack, and it's back for this one

because I was torn between head and heart. A big long run down from chat GPT. I don't want to give you the whole thing, but I will say this. The brief kick on it. In the first round, in Zichuku showcase striking versatility, landing leg kicks and connecting with jabs,

but Jacoby remained composed and resilient, weathering the storm and finding his own openings to strike back. And the second round, the pace picks up. Both fighters are exchanging combinations with urgency. Jacoby avoided being out kickboxed for the third time in a row, because that's basically what's happened in his two previous fights, decides to mix it up with a takedown. When it knew that?

Wait, does Chad Chubit, the recap, it wrote up? Did it mention that he's been outstruck and his out kickbox? Chad JPD knows that. The robots know all, buddy. That is scary. So he's mixing it up with a takedown, which is an interest. We'll see if that ends up playing out. And then in the closing minutes of the fight, In Zuchuku

unleashes a devastating combination of punches and kicks that staggers Jacoby. He follows it up with a crushing right hook that sends Jacoby to the canvas. But with the final seconds ticking away, he presses forward. He's unable to get the finish. The fight ends.

Both fighters acknowledge each other's abilities. And in the end, the judge's scorecards, give Kennedy and Zuchuku a unanimous decision victory. So the chat, TPT, bet this week is Kennedy and Zuchuku. I got him at minus 148 at the time. So that's where we're at on him. But feeling good, the heart won out over the head.

The robots have decided it. And we'll just try and keep this money chain rolling. That's not bad. That is, that's good stuff. It could go, it could go 10 and 3. You could hit double digit wins this weekend. Is a spectacular showing up that. You should ask about Diaz and Paul.

That would have been the thing. I didn't even think about it. I really should have. If Jacoby shoots a takedown in the second round, then we'll know that the robots really have it all figured out. That's scary. Next fight up, a featherweight contest. Diego Lopez taking on Gavin Tucker. Lopez is your betting favorite at minus 175.

Tucker comeback at plus 145. A.K., what are your thoughts on this guy? Tucker is plus right now, plus 145. I do think Lopez is being a little overrated because he looked really good. against mobsar i get it we all saw that one note i have on this sure we Lopez getting a lot of credit for losing the mob star he's still lost competitive way yeah great fight great fight he still lost that said um with respect to my fellow canadian Gavin tucker the pride of uh newfoundland labrador uh i should say Halifax i don't know i don't know where he represents i know he's

born somewhere in those area uh he's super old uh Gavin tucker's 37 37 years young that's all he's well past your 12 year mark of competing he hasn't fought in a while he's just past a 12 year mark he's just he's just past he's 2011 he's just 2011 he's uh he's been out with he's been dealing with a lot of injuries um this is a good combination of i would not tell people that uh that it's worth throwing an underdog but i hope he pulls off the upset again i got to support my canadian and again i don't think de jela lopez is that good i don't think he's as good as some people might be thinking after that mobsar fight but he is a good good fighter. And I just think they're just where they are at in their careers. It would take a lot for

Gavin Tucker to pull this one. He's got the experience advantage. You know, that's always good. But I think in this case, it's not going to be enough to pull off the upset. So I'm not touching this one. I'd never just tell people maybe just stay away from that plus money on Tucker. He has the experience advantage. Look, the Billy Q win remains a very, very good win for Gavin Tucker. And Lopez, again, always a little bit of trepidation when a guy is getting a ton of credit for. a loss, which is basically what's happening with Diego Lopez. There's a problem here, though, in this fight for me, and it's that, I mean, you pointed out a number of concerning issues for Tucker, adding in much smaller man.

Diego Lopez is going to dwarf him in the cage. And the big issue for me here is Diego Lopez showed very, very good, very slick off his back. And Gavin Tucker is going to want to go to that wrestling that has a calling card, a hallmark of his style. I think there's a world where Lopez is just too physically capable. And I'm taking a very, very small shot on Lopez by submission. The price is plus 245.

It would be the first time Tucker's ever been submitted. But we saw Lopez have a lot of success against Movesar, who is better than Gavin Tucker. I think that there's a world where this happened. So just taking a very small play on Lopez by submission. Yeah, I think that's very reasonable. All right. Moving on a light heavyweight matchup, Tanner the bulldozer, Bozer, taking on Alexa Kamer.

Bozer is your favorite at minus 155. Kamer, the comeback at plus 130. AK, do you have any thoughts whatsoever about this? No, I took no notes on this, because I assumed this was going to be a chat, GVT fight of the week. I was like, What could Jed possibly know or have to say about Alexa Kamer or Tanderbroser?

Camer, I think, coming back for the first time in a while, because I'm pretty sure that when I started looking at this fight, I was like, when, where has Alexa Kamer been? Sure enough, last fight, June 19th, 2021, 777 days exactly since his last fight. I don't know if that's, I shouldn't have said that because I'm sure there's gamblers out there whose ears are lighting up at like 777. Like, that's a good sign. I got to put that kind of money on Camer. I didn't even think of that for that is. Don't do the Luxemacher 777 underdog bet currently plus 130 on that draft Kings. I'm a little surprised the underdog because Tanner looked really bad in his light heavyweight debut.

Though I think it's also easy to write it off. It's just like he got caught. Like it just wasn't a good. You know, he fought you on Kutalaba, who's super unpredictable, a great finisher. Kamer, it's been a while since we've seen him. I kind of understand why Bozer's coming in as a favorite, but I'm a little surprised. I thought this would be closer to a pick-em, which I guess it kind of is, cameras plus 130, Bozer minus 55.

It's not like he's a huge favorite, but I'm surprised it's not just like minus 110, minus 110 for both guys or something like that. Like, this is a weird one. I should have done the chat GBT for this. We should have done two chat GPs this week. So here's why I didn't do a chat GPT because I love everything you just said, A.K. I'm just not sure Tanner Bozer, who has lost four of his previous five bouts and hasn't really looked all that good.

should be a betting favor over anybody. Right. The Kamer, not great fighter and off a long layoff. So maybe I sort of at least understand the thought process here. But I went back to the buckets. I feel like these guys are probably in a pretty similar tier at light heavyweight. And Kamer is at I got him at plus 136. So I'm taking a shot.

I don't feel like, won't be shocked if I lose here. I don't feel great. It's probably a riskier bet than need be made. but let's looking for some more action on the card. And you got a guy who's a betting favorite despite losing four of his past five bouts. So give me, give me strong, strong style MMA.

Isn't that who Kamer represents? That's more than I know. I think, yeah, he's with Stepe and Jessica and come from a strong style fight team. Right. Give me, give me Stepe's light heavyweight protege against the bulldozer.

I think, I think that one's going to feel weirdly good if it hits. I don't know. I know you make a lot of bets every week. I think that's one like if it hits, you're just going to, you're going to feel like a little spark inside, Jen. And you're like, yeah, I'm glad I'm glad I, I'm glad I snuck that. I think you're going to feel like I'll tell you what. It's going to make me care about this fight that I otherwise would not care at all about.

I got Canadian. Again, I got a Canadian in there, so I'm invested no matter what. Half of the important part of betting is to just make me care about things because I all largely try to bet on fights that I don't care at all about. I do sort of care about this next fight. The final main card fight, Ignacio Bahamondez, taking on Ludovic Klein and a lightweight bout. Bahamondez, your betting favorite at minus 225.

They come back on Klein at plus 185 over under set at 2.5. A.K., I think this is a really fun fight. I'm very excited to watch it. I don't have any action on this fight, which I think is the first one on this card that I have not bet on. I was going to say first that I was surprised that this is the main card opener because you got some big names, some good names of prelims, Billy Corntillo, Damon Jackson, Carla Phinebs, Houselso, even Cody Durdon and Jake Hadley, who both kind of gotten somewhat of a push from the UFC, like I'm surprised they put them on there. But I think, like you said, it's a fun matchup. They expect this not to go to the distance. They definitely expect someone to get a KO'd or submitted. I haven't seen the props, so I don't know what the odds for on those. I just think Klein it, and I think Ignatio, Bahamandas is really good. So I'm like you, I'd probably just stay away. But Klein is a wild card.

Like he's a, he's a really talented finisher. Is he a guy who's going to be a top 20, top 25 lightweight? I don't know. I don't know if I'd have the confidence to say that. But he is a wild guy. So him being almost a two to one underdog is a little surprising to me. So that's, that is an underdog pick that I can support if one were so inclined to put money on this fight. But I am a believer in Alexandria, Agnachio Bahamanda as well. So I will say personally, like you not touching it but uh cline almost plus 200 is it's not uh it's not the worst thing yeah klein is a bit of a wild card i think he's hurt by coming off i know he had a draw against jai herbert but he probably was losing that fight um before the point deduction so

it it is it's hard for me to rate him whereas bahamondez um also a bit of a weird career i mean losing a splitie to John McDessie, but otherwise has looked really good and looked like an exceptional finisher. I think that's one of the huge points here. It's been very good with his takedown defense, and he is going to just fight at a much higher pace. So I do favor Bahamondes, but not enough to bet it, basically, is sort of where I'm at this moment of time.

Which brings us to the prelims. We're going to rapid fire through these, because this is getting lengthy. I think the first prelim up, not 100% sure on the order because I'm seeing conflicting spots out there. I don't think it's finalized. I would probably finalized on Thursday, early Friday. Well, per tapology, which is who we are going to be using as our guiding light at this point in time, Jeremiah Wells taking on Carlston Harris in a welterweight contest. The Wells is your betting favorite at minus 135. The comeback on Carlston Harris at plus 114 over under, set at two and a half with the under minus 190.

They do not think this particular fight is going to the judge's scorecards. At least Vegas doesn't. A.K., I'll just let you know, I'm on Jeremiah Wells in this one. I think this is one of, if you look at the prelims, we've got three

really, really good fights, and then two flyweight bouts that are quality. But maybe they won't be super exciting. But I do think this Wells, I'm sorry. Wells Harris. I was trying to say Harris and Carlston is one word. I think the Wells Harris fight is going to be really, really good.

I mean, look, Harris only lost in his UFC tenure has been to Shavcott, so he can't really blame him for losing to Shavcott, can you? And otherwise has looked exceptional. I mean, finishing impiccassanaganay, I think. Yep, Impakasanganae, yeah. Impa Kisongenei and Christian, Aguilera, because she's coming off the Jared Gooden win, whereas Wells, Wells looks like he might be the real deal as far as a prospect goes. Prospect is questionable because he's 36, I guess, but we're talking about a dude who has not lost in forever coming off a win over Matthew Simmel's burger, who is a bit of a wild card himself, beats good dudes, lose the good dudes, but a number of very good performances from Jeremiah Wells.

is the guy who can maybe make a late career push towards a top 15 spot if he can keep doing this. And I really think I just like his chances in this in this bout because of it. Carlson Harris, like I said, very good fighter. I think Wells is the better, is going to be able to control the wrestling, which will be a huge thing. And that's sort of how I view this. I think he's just going to win those exchanges. he'll get the better of the grappling unless he will get his hand raised.

But how do you feel? I will just say, I love the Wells Harris matchup, the Phillips Barcellos matchup, Cornillo Jackson. All of them fantastic. Yeah, yeah, all great matchup. So I don't have a strong inclination

to bet on any of them. Because I think, as you just said, part of betting is to make fights more interesting. And for me, I'm like, I'm pretty invest in these as it is. And as far as picking a winner, the only one I'm really confident in is I like, I would probably go Corantillo

if I have to pick one of these. guys like as my my lock of these three preliminary fights because um wells Harris like a good good matchup it's very close in the betting odds i see on draft kings right now minus 135 wells plus one 14 carls very close um just almost again pretty close to a pickup right just a slight nod in well's directions so uh i have no feel for that one either way um phillips barcelos not to blow through these too quickly but i'm i'm sure you'll you'll have thoughts in second but i will say Phillips, Barcellos, Barcellos coming in as a replacement.

You know, we lost two Norma Meadows from this card. We did, Saeed. We're supposed to get Saeed and Umar. It would have been the easiest parley of my life. You would have just done the double, the double in the ragged up. That would have been more interesting. I don't have a lot to say about Phillips and Barcellos other than it's going to be a

banger. Again, I would not, I'm not putting anything on that. Same with Corintillo Jackson. If I were, I would throw Corintillo into a parley. That's about it. Corntile just to win straight up in Parley. Boom.

I love that we just blew right on into the Billy Q, Damon Jackson fight. Sure. Because I'm going to be betting. And I agree with you on this one. So I think Damon Jackson just had a really fun run. Look, that four-fight win streak with the Pat Sabatini performance. Like, that's just a really fun run, man. You can't take that away from him.

By the way, just to put the odds out there. Billy Q minus 192, Damon Jackson plus 160 over under two and a half under his favorite there. But yeah, I think Damon Jackson just had a really fun run and that's okay. Like that's a great thing. But, and you can argue that he's just lost to elite guys. Dan Ige, elite featherweight forever.

Ilya, probably the next champion. Molokab, I have very, very good featherweight. Like, you can make the case. I think it's just more likely that he's a fun guy who happen to have a good run and we can feel good about it. But Billy Q is a fun dude who has also just been losing the very quality opposition

at some Barbosa, Shane Burgos. I think he's just more set up to get the win here. And the thing for me is Billy Q, very much a finisher. I'm looking at it right now. Last three wins have all been by stoppage and I think five of six in the UFC

have been by finish. More importantly, Damon Jackson, when this man loses, he gets put out. He has never lost the decision in his career, his five career losses, four have come by knockout, one by stoppage. So I think you could just bet Billy Q by TKO looks like that's out there at like plus 165 or Q by submission at plus 600. But I think instead I just want to go with the safest of all options. The Billy Q wins inside the distance at plus 115. So that's where I'll be on this one. Yeah, that's a good way to go. We should mention

Sean Woodson is going to be competing on this card. I don't know if you saw that, Jed. I assume there's no odds for it anyway. He got his third replacement opponent. I'm going to say locked in, but you know what? I don't know if anything's locked in for this card anymore. His third replacement opponent, his fourth scheduled opponent overall, originally supposed to fight Steve Garcia, who suffered an injury.

Steve Garcia is replaced by Jesse Butler, who said he has to go through some protocol that's forcing to come out of the fight. I believe that protocol being he was knocked the F out by Jim Miller like a month, like six weeks ago. So maybe someone saying, hey, this guy probably shouldn't fight so soon. And then it looked like he was going to be replaced by newcomer Myron Santos. We are now seeing reports, Santos had visa issues. And I believe it's official. He has been booked now, again, against a recent contendous series contestant.

Dennis Bozuchka, Bazukia, probably pronounced that wrong. Sorry, Dennis. That's on ESPN. So that's on the ESPN schedule. It's about as officials I can get Dennis stepping in on four days notice, but I don't think you'll find odds for that fight anywhere until. Odds are not up now. We'll get them later.

I didn't know this, but now that I know he is fighting Dennis Bazuchat, let me just say, I will be betting on Sean Woodson because Dennis Bazookcha, he goes by The Great, which is the worst nickname. Bazooka is right there. Yeah.

Dennis Bazooka Bazucha. Like, it's not hard. It's so easy. Why are we doing the Great? Which is one, like, Dennis, the Menace would be better. Like, it's just the Great is an awful name. It's not even a good name for Alex's. Like Alexander, the Great Volcanovsky is a pretty mid-level.

Like, that's not a very good one. Certainly for Dennis. Dennis, the Great Bazook-Juch-Juker. Like, no. Dennis, Dennis, Bazooka-Bajuca, baby. And fairness. fantasy he probably gets his guess gets called Dennis Bazooka all the time yeah then that's what nickname is man it's not I want to be this person so I get to choose it it's what people call you

Dennis Bazooka it like he deserves to lose for that for that alone I will be backing Sean Woodson whatever the price I don't care give me the price I will be backing it you don't have to follow me people I'm don't bet on this fight don't bet on this fight don't be such a junkie that you can have bet on a fight where Sean Woodson's fighting his fourth scheduled opponent don't be don't do this. Yeah, you, you definitely don't have to. Uh, I don't have anything on either the featherweight fights. Flyweight unders. Flyweight unders. Not betting the flyweight unders. They died. The flywood unders are over. I, I know they've been a roughshy. Both of these are competitive unders. Yes. The unders are two and a half for both of the flyweight fights and they are both functionally pickums.

Uh-huh. So if you want to choose to believe, I am not, you know, I had to move on. Sometimes you got to move on from the good things in your life that used to be to make room for new things like chat ch pt and that's what i've done for this week because i'm here as the guests join me in definitely i would say osborne amabayaev under under one-and-a-half durden hadley i would say don't i i'd be shocked if that goes not shocked not sure i shouldn't say that um both guys certainly capable of finishing but i'll go i would not put i would not go durden hadley it's possible, but I would say unlikely. Osborne, Alamabov, I feel really good about it. It definitely could happen. I think that's going under one to half.

If there are two flyway fights, if they both go under, then Connor and I next week can revisit maybe opening the books up again to look at the flywood unders returning. But they have been playing jump rope with our hearts lately. Yeah. And moving away from the flywood under has been a historically good move for us. But join me on Osborne Elmabobabyev this week. Not Durden Hadley, but Osborne Elmabyev but Osprenell. Okay. One more time. One more time.

Sure. Why not? I already got plenty of bets down. All right. All right. I'll join that. Last thing I just wanted to say is because we didn't really talk about Honey, Boccellus versus Kyler Phillips.

Fight's going to be awesome. Oh, amazing. The betting line on that as it stands right now, Kyler Phillips minus 198, come back on Barcellas plus 165. I could, you could convince me a Kyler Phillips bet here. I don't have one down, but I mean, I specifically, want to talk about this fight because of you, A.K. Because How many Barselaos lost

the team Ravalev, who is on tough and by being on tough, he must be terrible. So, since he is very bad, and Hany Barsallos lost to him, then we should go with Kyler Phillips, who beat Song Yodong.

Remains one of the better wins on a weird resume of beating Song Yadong from Kyler Phillips. Not sure what to make of him after losing the Halen Pavia, but and a week coming off like a year layoff but you can convince me a kailer phillips bet but uh that's it that's all i got for this weekend now now you have me wondering if i should do if there's if there's a loss to an ultimate fighter so lost to someone on the ultimate fighter parley somewhere in this card i'll

have to look it up you probably can find it out you know what if i figure it out i will tweet it out along with the uh with the show well jessica and drodge law had definitely lost to an ultimate fighter i yes yeah this is true i mean rosami unis was on tough and Jessica Dron certainly lost to Rose Nami Yunus. But I mean, you could probably really piece some of that together. I'd have to dive in in a way I'm not ready. Yeah, I'll take a look and let people now, yeah. Yeah, but that's going to be it.

This was a longer episode than probably planned, but multiple events this weekend had to get through. A.K., thank you for joining me. A pleasure. On this wonderful journey. Next week. Never bet on M.A. Unless you're trying to have fun. Next week.

UFC Vegas 79 back in the apex who needs to be on the road and having fun the apex Vicente luke taking on a hafael dos angios and some other fights that are happening on that card gonna be a fight card it's gonna be one of the fight cards and happens this year see you then love y'all the vox media podcast network