MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Petr Yan Rebound Vs. Merab Dvalishvili? Plus, Whoops! Jed Lost All His Money

Episode Date: March 8, 2023

UFC 285 is in the review but that doesn't mean the MMA game is stopping. This Saturday in Las Vegas, the UFC returns with yet another fight night card, this time headlined by a pivotal bantamweight matchup between Petr Yan and Merab Dvalishvili, and so, as always, the No Bets Barred boys are back to discuss. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick off the episode by discussing UFC 285, an event which was undeniably ugly for both. Conner ended up down a few units but that paled in comparison to Jed whose "All In On Shevchenko" plan backfired catastrophically. Now Jed is down to the felt and looking to build back up, and so the boys dive into UFC Las Vegas, with both men weighing the merits of continuing to back Petr Yan, questioning the possible outcomes for the Battle of Alexanders in the co-main event, and digging deep to find value on the undercard. Then, before wrapping things up, Jed offers up a pair of Bellator 292 bets, just for good measure. Tune in for Episode 38 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another episode of No Betts Barred this time for UFC Vegas. No number next to that one. No, we are not at the apex. We'll be in front of a crowd in Las Vegas for Piotr-Yan versus Marab de Valishvili

should be a fantastic card. Jedman. How we doing, bro? We'll get to 285. We'll get to 285 because we've got to talk. One, do you know why this is UFC Vegas and not UFC Vegas X, Y, or Z? Because of the stadium that's at?

Yes, but do you know why they're at this stadium? because slap fighting has to take place of the airship? Sure is. It's incredible that they're going to whichever, I don't even remember

what the venue is, but it's fantastic. Just throwing a kink in the works for friggin slap fighting. But... I don't hate it. I mean, it's just going to make them money and we get this fight in front of a crowd.

I mean, that's a very positive way to look at it, Connor. I appreciate that, that optimism for a, you. But it's not a terrible fight card. It's not great. And I'm saying this now.

I'm sure I'm going to say it on other programs this week, but I want us to be the first access to this important take of mine here, which is this. Yeah. For all those people out there. And there are many of you that say the claim erroneously that Bannamweight is the best division in the sport, I offer you this card because we have five Bannamweight fights on it. and there's not one of you who are going to stand up and be like this is the best fight night card of the year i can't wait for this this card is pretty mid and that's okay to say it's certainly not bad the main event's great but all you people are here being like bannamwait it's the deepest best division we got five of them and y'all aren't just climbing the rooftops screaming about how excited you are so but couldn't you create that stands couldn't you create that with a card with five with five lightweight fights

I don't think so. You're going pretty far out of the rankings here. I don't think so. Lightweights are dope, man. Like where do Victor Henry and Tony Gravely stack up their equals in lightweight? Ooh, this is, I didn't even think about doing this, but that's a fantastic thought experiment. Let's use Tapology, because Tapology is not like, does not say this is the end all, be all or anything, right? Tony Gravely, according to Tapology, is like the 36th best Bannumweight fighter.

which frankly feels a little high. I'm not going to lie to you. That feels a little high to have him there. 36 lightweight is Alexander Hernandez. I know which of those two guys I'm taken to watch fight. What about Victor Henry? Let's see. Let's take a look.

Victor Henry is the 22nd best Bannamweight, according to tapology. That seems excessively high. There's a better argument here, though it's the 22nd lightweight. according to typology is Mark, the Olympian, Mark O. Madsen. I would say that he is a better fighter than Victor Henry. I would not say that he's the most enjoyable guy to watch fight. Mark Madsen and Alex Hernandez is also not getting me out of bed in the morning.

I'm more excited about that fight than I am. Victor Henry getting in there with Tony Cravely, I got to say. I'm going to, Connor, this is a great idea. I'm going to spend not the rest of this program, because it's not really a topic for here. I'm going to, I'm going to do the Mario Batista Guido Canadi one. Okay, Mario Baltista.

Mario Batista is the 28th best bantamweight fighter. Tapologies, Bantamweight rankings are concerning to me. All right. I got Lightway right here. That gives us Jared Gordon. I said, Jared Gordon is that for Lightweight. And then Guido Canetti has to be low. 57.

Okay. Thank God he's 57. He's a page tour, at least. Okay, so Jared Gordon versus OAM. OAM. You're saying this as if I would be, like, be, like, clamoring for OAM, Jared Gordon. I would much rather watch those two lightweight fights than the two BAM weight fights were getting. I'm not here to say Bannamweight's a bad division.

I just, I was talking about this with the esteemed Alexander K. Lee a few minutes ago, and I was like, I would have thought in the dark five Bannam wave fights we'd be talking about the best fight night of the year the way some people talk about 135, you know? Let's make it a UFC fighter it would be Benoit Saint-Denia at 58. So Jerry Gordon, Ben-Wa-Saint-Den-A.

I love that that's, that little stretch of lightweights is the French-Canadian names going on there. Well, you could have lucked out with a 54th and we could have gotten Alexander Volcanowski, which is the 54th ranked lightweight. Oh, good for that.

have him ranked as that way. That would have been spectacular. He has to be higher than that. Like if we got a, if we got a, let's let's have him fight up a little bit. Alex Volcanovsky versus Fairzaiam. Yeah. You got to win those fights, man. I'm going to take Volcanovsky.

You got to get in the cage and win those fights. Yeah, I don't know. I feel like that's a, that's an unfair comparison. Like we like we obviously don't have a title fight in here. Like, I love the main event. I can't wait for the manna. It is spectacular. I also can't wait for the Saeed Narmagamanda of Jonathan Martinez, which is also on the main card. I am very much looking forward to that. I'm excited to talk to you about that fight as we get there. But we've digressed a lot. I don't know if you could tell. I may or may not have been intentionally trying to divert us away. Live talk. Should we start with this? Should we start with a disclaimer for all our listeners out there that you are listening to two losing gamblers for the year of 2023? I don't know what happened when

New Year's Eve hit when the ball dropped. Yeah, I'm down like six units on the year. It feels like every week. Actually, the last three weeks, I have started off so well. I didn't lose a bet until the main card this week. And like it feels like it's like, finally, we did it. This is the one we're going to breakout. We're going to be up seven, eight units for the card. We're going to put this bad start in the dust and then everything flips. Dude, entering the fourth round of the Valentina fight, especially when she was looking pretty good, I was like, this is it. I think I'm going to finish up like 10 units tonight. Like this, we finally found the breakout. And then everything went wrong from the fourth round. For the next like, what was it, the combined like six minutes of fighting that we had for the rest of the

evening, everything went wrong for me. Valentina law. The over one and a half in the John Jones fight did not hit. Zero gone lost. Everything went to shit for me. And like what looked like it was about to be a monstrosity of a night, I ended up down two units. Damn. Especially all. Thank God you hedged out.

Thank God I hedged out. Thank God I hedged out because it would have been such a terrible flip. It's so for those who somehow aren't aware, I lost all my money. all of it. Do we have like a quantity here? Do we have like a unit? Like if that makes you feel better about it? Um, I don't let's, I lost four figures. Let's put it that way. Jesus Christ. So a couple of things because I'm feeling better about it. I got to be honest. The first thing I'll say is to piggy back off what you were saying, I was feeling so good on Saturday because like you, it's been a tough 2023. I just can't feel like I get dug in.

I mean, there's just no momentum, had a couple of really tough weekends. It's like, it's like, it's not like I'm like completely shitting the bed. I could, I could potentially get out of the red in one good fight card. Yeah, one good weekend. But it's just like every time I feel like I'm about to break out, everything goes wrong. Mm-hmm. And so I felt the exact same way. Like, I was up heading into the co-main event.

Obviously, that was going to dictate my whole weekend because I was all in on Chivchenko. But I was feeling very good. Even my losses this past weekend. prior to that. Like I, like I took a shot on Jalen Turner at almost plus 200 in a fight that was very competitive. And that he dropped to Matush Gamrodt twice.

Yep. As it was ending, I was like, I don't regret it. I was like, as it was ending, I was like, I don't regret this bet.

Exactly. I don't feel bad about that bet. I don't feel bad about the Esteban Rebovich bet in, in the card opener, like a competitive bout. He had his moments, could have done better, just a growing opportunity.

He was plus 230 or whatever. Like, I don't, my loss is I was, more than happy to take on the chin at that point and say I took some shots. And then it all comes crashing down with full credit to Alexa Grasso. She prepared for it, got it there, did it, broke my heart. You've probably seen the clip.

It's going around. But I'm feeling a little better, Connor. Let me tell you why. Two big reasons why I've managed to pull myself up out of the sad sackery of this past weekend. The first one, that is actually pretty serious, and I did want to say this on the episode for, I think, reasons that will become pretty clear. We just established the last four figures. It wasn't good. Let me say this just before you go into this.

I don't know how much people bet. I am not, like, a big unit better. These people that send me in slips where they're betting $1,500 on a plus $600 or something like that, I am like a $50 unit better. Like, that's, like, I am small. So like a four-figure loss to me, like I would be in shambles the next day. So it's, I wasn't doing great. But the reason I wasn't in shambles is I followed the single most important rule of betting. And it's that you never bet what you can't afford to lose.

And I didn't take out a mortgage on my house. I didn't bet my rent money. I have a gambling bankroll that I've built up over years. And I just put it all down. Did I lose with that whole gambling bank? Well, sure, did it. Don't feel great. Not here to tell you I had a good weekend or that any of this is okay.

Just here to say I'm not destitute because I didn't do something dumb and there's some guy coming to break my knees for it. And so ultimately, yes, it's several years down the drain functionally. But we, you know, we all make mistakes. We all do dumb shit. And I am still eating food. So we're okay. The second reason. Tell me.

The second reason I'm okay with it, Connor, is, and this is probably a spin zone, but I don't care. I'm free. Do you understand this? It's only once you have died that you can truly live. What is dead may never die, Connor. And now I am free to start back. I have a clean slate, a fresh start. The whole bad year I'd been having, I just put that in the rear view.

we're going to load up a hondo spot into the draft king's account and we're just going to start building back up brick by brick baby so it's a new journey it's a new me all the negativity is behind me the past is for cowards and we're on to ufc las vegas i love it i love the stoic view of it i mean there's only one thing you can do is move on nothing and i mean nothing will change the outcome of saturday night can't bring it back that is email Nope. That's for certain. Hey, just can't do it. So I won't sit here and be like you gambled responsibly.

You know, we can't see that putting your entire bankroll on a minus 800 is gambling responsibly. But you gambled responsibly. I gambled responsibly. I did not bet responsibly. All right. That's a nice spend zone for it. That's a nice spend zone. I did not gamble.

I gambled responsibly in that the money I lost, I could lose and afford to lose it. I did not bet in any definition of responsible. Yeah. And I paid the price. Yeah. I mean, that's really all there is to say about it. Any more max bets,

any more bankroll bets on massive favorites? So I actually thought about this because part of me now wants to do it a lot more because it's a cheap and easy way to build up a bankroll quickly if you hit, right? Or lose it all, yeah, or lose it all. So my bankroll right now is the $100 I'm about to put into Draft King. So what are we doing? Are we doing $1 units for right now or what? I think we're going to do five.

I'm, you know, 20% of the bankroll. That's acceptable. We're back. But this is definitely at that point, right, the impulse to say, I can always just load another hundo if this goes tits up and I can just fire a $100 bullet after $100 bullet. I'm going to not do that on principle. that's something that's actually something that I always talk about that if you're cool like I always see it on on bet

mma tips just people that every one of their bets is 11 units and I'm like then that's not an 11 unit bet that is a one unit bet and your unit is 11 11 units like you you have to stay honest with the units like $50 is a perfect size for me with with how much I make with my lifestyle with how much I'm a willing to lose like you said like I don't want to be life and death over every single bet. I wanted to be disappointed when I lose and it'd be cool when I win. And I think I've found the perfect medium of that for right now. But like these people that are just like 11 units, 11 units, 11 units.

It's like, no, that's your one unit. It's just a unit. Yeah. If you're just doing it. But yeah, I'm just going to take this as an opportunity to start over. So you can do. Functionally, and this is certainly equivocating to some extent. but I am still a overall I've not lost money gambling, even though I obviously took a major hit

because I didn't just throw in 5K or whatever into a bankroll and start gambling with that. I built it up over time and I got there and we're just going to do it again. We did it before. We could do it again, hopefully a little wiser or a little luckier. And, you know, maybe that's the way to get all the bad energy of 2023 out. Been having a tough year. Maybe. Maybe. That might have been in.

One thing, and now I can grow. That might have been in. I mean, I love that ideology because, Lord, do we need it? There needs to be some sort of a ju-ju change. And you want to know the sickest part. Every time I keep going down, I'm just like, all right, this is more motivation because it's just going to be that much sweeter when we're getting back in the green. There's actually a couple points during this episode that I'm going to hit on why I'm a sicko,

why I'm deranged. And I mean, we'll get into that and into these fights. But yeah, I mean, it's, I have to say. now that we're two months in and my profit has mostly come from Bellator and boxing like I've had a really successful year so far

in both of those UFC has not done me well at all been a hard year in the UFC man I know like that's what I think and that's what you think and then I get on Twitter and people are like I'm up 87 units so far in 2020 like John Jones submission

plus 650 John Jones submission round one plus 8,000? I'm just like, sick. Wow, I really just suck at this, huh? I mean, John Jones submission around 1 plus 8,000. I don't know if that was the actual lot. If that was the number, we should have all bet that. That was great.

It was plus 60 for the sub. It was plus 60 for the sub, which in hindsight, it's just like, oh, Cyril Gone sucks at the ground game. And like, John Jones could definitely submit them. Like, hindsight's always 2020, though. Shouts to whoever you put, you retweeted them, whoever did the one 300 grand on a $1 bet that man

props to you that is the sickest thing I've ever seen in the gambling world I would be done giving out picks on the MMA hour that'd be it I'd just put a tenor on it instead of the $1 $1.00 on it You just made $3 million of a 10 spot Can't even think like that but yeah

I mean it'd be like I won I wanted MMA betting I'm done this is my retirement party Thanks for coming. I did what I had to do. All the money just goes into an IRA and is going to sit there and that's where I retire later. I'm signed into a lease at my apartment. I'm paying off the rest of my lease and then, yeah, just like thrown it into an IRA. I don't know what I would do with it.

I'm not going to even get into imagining it because it's not going to happen to me. I mean, I haven't hit a sub prop in like 17 years. I'm not going to talk about hitting exactness. I think I'm going to have to start doing that. I'm going to, I think every week I'm just going to make the sickest, grungiest parlay and put a buck on it and and hope for the miracle because can you imagine the content if we get on here and no that's barred later this year after I lose it all and then suddenly I win 500 grand on a friggin eight-leg sub prop partly yeah maybe who knows who knows uh UFC 285 that's in the

books that's behind us couple of fights I will say oh my god card was amazing I'm not going to lie, dude, honestly, there's sometimes, especially in these moments when I have yet to find much success in 2023, where I'm like, damn, I kind of want to just take a break from betting, not give out any picks, not have the pressure and just enjoy the fights. And like, a perfect example of that was Saturday night. I wish I could have just like taken it in. I looked at Mike and I was like, I'm kind of jealous of you that you just got to enjoy all these fights instead of like, having fun. Yeah, I mean, there's night, there are nights where I'm like, damn, I don't wish I didn't bet like it there there is a pressure that comes with it uh and obviously you're you're jaded if if your

fighter loses yeah i mean for sure there are definitely nights when i think when i just think about when i was a fan of the sport instead of someone who worked in here and just how it's a different perspective and it's not quite the same and it's still dope i love my job but the joy isn't it's it's different so i i can understand you there was that a great pump-up speech to get into ufc vegas or What? Are you excited to hear we have to say about this? Like, are we going to give out winners or what? Like, I feel like half the audience was just like, all right, let's, you know, let's go to a different pot here.

No, I think that they're, they're ready to ride with me. Look at that honesty. Look at that raw honesty that we provide. This is it. This is week one. This is the winning week. This is when all the time turned. No one can ever say that we, uh, we're faking shit.

Oh, that's for sure. That's for sure. So, come join me, guys. We're about to take the first step on. on our $100, we're going to turn it into a grand, and then we're going to turn it into $100,000. That's the plan. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes.

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Our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com. I can't wait. Let's do it. Let's start with the main event at UFC Vegas. It is a men's bantam. about Piotr Yon taking on Marab Davalishvili. Right now, you can have Piotr Yon for minus 260.

Marab de Vallej Vili coming back at plus 220. So right off the bat, here's where we get into it. What is wrong with me? Why do I continue to do this to myself? Well, now I'm interesting. First Aljo fight. First Aljo fight, I play Yon. Disqualification, lose my money.

Second Aljo fight. Play Yon heavy. super exposed on Yan, he loses by split decision. O'Malley fight. Play Yan heavy. All of these, by the way, except for the first Aljo fight, super juiced up numbers. Favorites in all of them, those last two,

super juiced up numbers. And then the Sandhagen fight, when he was juiced and he actually won, I played the over. Yes, it hit, but alas, I just can't seem to get these, these Peotrean money lines right. That sounds like you're about to do it again, though. now here he is. Minus 200 or greater. And I just, I like, I can't not convince myself into how he wins the fight. Like I just, I just feel like this is a stylistic matchup that works well for him. The fact that it's five rounds, I think also benefits Piotr Yon. I mean, we just saw the Volusvili go 0 for 16 on takedowns against Jose Aldo. Yes, he was able to get a bunch of control time against the cage, rack up a pre, was boring,

decision win. I was on Marab there and I was like kind of laughing as like everyone was just like going nuclear on him and like saying like he needed to get cut. He ruined Aldo's retirement, everything like that. Alas, he couldn't get a takedown. Jose Alto's career takedown defense 91%. Peter Yon's career takedown defense 90%. Like Peter Yon is a is a pretty good defensive grappler. And if Marab can't get this down, like Yon is in my opinion going to style on him on the feet. I just think there's just, oh man, I keep getting myself too deep into talking into it. What I did do, I played it to win a half unit. I grabbed them at minus 200 to win a half unit. I was like, so you just took them straight. You took them straight. I'm not going to get too overexposed. Did one unit to

to win a half unit, but I was like, I don't know. I just feel like Piotrion gets this done. Also, you have to remember like, in my opinion, this is a must win for Piotrion. Have to win this. Like, can you really go one and four in your last five? Now, like, God, you're talking about losing the Aljo twice if you're counting in the DQ. And you lost to his teammate Marab. I just feel like the motivation's there. My original play, I added Jan. I think it was on Sunday, but I did hit the over.

I took the over four and a half minus 175. This to me, like, I mean, Marab is just like a decision machine. They call him the machine. His real nickname is actually the decision machine. Decision machine. The only time he gets finished is that Ricky Simone, like, literally taking the soul out of his body. I know he got a little bit wobbled against Marlon Marius, but he was able to overcome that. Peter Yon doesn't really carry that knockout power.

Like, I think this one probably goes to a would say. That finish came at just super, super late. So I like to hear a lot of what you're saying, because I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I did not take Jan straight for the other reasons you said. this is a decision waiting to happen. Jan, by decision is plus 110. So that's where I put my money on this fight.

Just putting a, you know, five bucks. That's the unit size with this $100 bankroll. So just putting a five or down, yon by decision. And I think almost everything you said, right? Like very good takedown defense. I think maybe Marab could get him down the first round.

But as the fight goes on, that will just get harder and harder. Yon is the more polished striker. But Devlar's really is tougher than a $2 stake. I mean, I've seen him overcome some big shots and keep fighting. And it's not really the way Yon works. There is some chance in my mind that Yon could get a late finish here if he really starts racking things up later in the fight.

But I think the most likely outcome here is Yon takes a decision. So I've got that. And I also, I came to that bet second because the first part of this, I don't know where I'm going with it, but I've got an open parlay leg that it's the Connor Burke's special, right? Like I just, I looked at this fight and I said, there's no way this fight ends before 12 minutes and a half. Oh, you took the over two and a half.

The over two and a half is minus 450. That feels like a very, very good price for that particular prop line. So that's an open parlay leg that I'm going to figure out something to pay. with it. I'm hoping maybe you've got something that entices me to add to it, but... You said that's minus 250. Minus 450. Minus 450. Minus 450. I was sorry. I was about to say... Minus 250. We would be doing the bet it all on that. No, no, no. I would have... Like, I would have had to cash out the over four and a half because I got that at minus 175. I was like, oh my God, 10 minutes for 75 points.

I would take that all day. I mean, yeah, dude, it's... I took the over one and a half in a in a prop parlay in addition to already having the over four and a half. I mean, the over one and a half. It's minus 900 and a half. Which is... I don't know what you got it at. Oh, Jesus. Oh, I got it at minus $5.50. That's why I went to over two and a half because I originally was like, okay, what's this? The difference between one and a half and two and a half is double.

It's minus 900 versus minus $4.50 on draft kings right now. Oh, that's, I mean, that's an insane on price. That's an insane price. I mean, I took it at minus $5. That wasn't on draft kings, but yeah, I mean, if you look at it, like each of their last, all of Marab's 10 UFC fights have gone over the one and a half. and then Jan, his last 10 UFC fights have gone over the one and a half. I would be shocked if it went under the one and a half,

and that's why it's going to go under the one and a half. Obviously. First round submission by Marab de Balasvili. But, yeah, I mean, also you've got to speak to these dudes' durability. You said how tough Marab is. I mean, Jan, like, Jan is hard. Has anyone ever finished him? I don't think so.

I do not believe. I'm pretty sure he is not. I don't even looking at her off the top of my head. He's never been stopped. Four losses were a DQ and three splities. if I'm not mistaken. And Aljo had his back for like nine full minutes and couldn't get a finish.

I just, I mean, O'Malley heard him, but wasn't ever really close to finishing that fight. Like it's a damn, bro. You talk about this man's career, dude. 16 and 4, one loss by DQ, his own fault, and three split decisions.

I mean, yeah, he's... I mean, this guy is like some, like a couple good bounces. Just the first one, pretty cleanly, the Magamad Magamatov fight. The DQ loss is what it is. I thought he very clearly lost

Al Jermaine Sterling in their second fight. So it's a sputty, but I don't, but I thought he beat John Amalley. I still think he's a couple, dude, he's a couple good bounces away from being 20 and 0 right now.

Correct. Which is crazy to think about. Like we're talking about bantam weight goat conversation. He might have three, four title. defenses like it feels like this dude has had a couple bad bounces it's it really is crazy i think that's maybe why i can't quit him i just can't quit peyriyant and i love marab de valshvili he's a fellow

georgian you know he is a fellow georgian got a couple of uh georgians on this card so not that georgian but different georgians so uh all right so we both think it goes long we both probably think peyre yon gets his hand raised and that's that that's the main event i'm looking forward to this one dude. Marava's a madman. It should be a very good fight. It should be very entertaining. Let's move to the co-main event of the evening. I'm very excited to hear what you have to say about this. It's a heavy weight about Alexander Volkov taking on Alexander Romanov. It's the battle of the Alexanders. Who will be the one standing? The great Alexander? Who will be Alexander the great after this one? Right now, Romanov minus 154, Volkov coming back plus 134. So I know that you're high on Romanov.

at least up until the Tibera fight, do you still have the same sentiments? So the Tibera fight, it makes you reevaluate a little bit, right? I mean, it has to the way fell off. I don't know what to expect here from this fight, and that's because that Tibera fight was so, is that a one-off? Was he just not prepared? Something go wrong in camp. He just came in, thought he was going to breeze through it, then couldn't.

Here we go. Tybura shows a little resistance, and this is an experience. he grows and learns from, or is this a real weakness? And here we go. And I love the matchmaking, because I think this is a great fight in that regard. I decided that I've got to take Alexander Volkov at the underdog price right now, plus $130. Wow.

I'm shocked. So there are a couple of reasons. The first one is the most important bet on this fight. It is a heavyweight fight. Yeah. The over is one and a half. half. I actually feel pretty okay about that being. In nine of Volkov's 13 UFC fights, he's hit over one and a half and four of Romanov six over one and a half. It's minus 165. I've got that bet down.

But I'm also taking a shot on Volkov. Wow. And a lot of it is based on the Tibera fight. Yeah, I mean, you were talking about the future of the heavyweight division here. I mean, he had looked so good. And then the first dude, he couldn't immediately run over on the ground. that proved to be very, very difficult for him. Well, here's what I'll say. Here's what I'll say about Taibura. He did run over him on the ground. He 10-8.

Should I re-watch that? That should have been a draw. Like, he 10-8ed. If that is not, if that first round, which two of the judges scored it a 10-9, if that first round is not a 10-8, I do not know what is. It was complete domination for 90% of the round. Absolutely true. But then he just, he was done.

Oh, you're dead. dead that was it he had four and a half minutes of gas was that altitude was in utah it was at altitude but you having that little gas when you're dominating that's the scary part because i can understand and explain it's at altitude is back and forth he just didn't have it he was never in a position where he had to work really like he is controlling

he was in his get arrest positions or whatever and just had nothing, it wouldn't shock me if he just does that, just dominates Volkov because his ceiling is very high. But Volkov also has a very good takedown defense, and he's 70% statistically, which is pretty good. He's very long and rangy, real good with the knees coming up the middle. And he's been submitted three times, but one of them is the Tommy Aspinall one, which aside from the fact that that Tommy Aspinall, is a whole different breed. Also, Tommy Aspinol jawed him beforehand,

so I'm not really confident Volkov was all there mentally at the time. He's in the ground. And the other two times he got submitted were in 2009 and 2010, like over a decade ago. He is not as good at grapplers, Alexander Romanov. I'm not saying that, but he's defensively sound and sensible enough. He's a much better striker than Romanov. No doubt. And Romanov is going to have to work through that length, that long-range fire to get in.

Romanov maybe gets a takedown, maybe wins the first round. But if that gas tank is what it is, I think he's in a whole world of trouble for the next two. So plus 130 kind of just felt like the right play. Yeah, I can't really blame you just because way the gas tank issue. but the way that all those fighters were reacting in Utah, I'm willing to give him a period of grace here. I want to see this Volkov fight. I also think the matchmaking,

the UFC still has a belief in this guy. I don't think they would just, I think Volkov is a tougher test than Tibera is, and he's doing it coming off of a loss. With that said, it is as toughest test, so I can't really blame you for taking Volkov. The striking is there. Like, if this doesn't go to the ground,

I mean, this is going to be one-way traffic. He's going to be able to stick at range and just pick him apart. But I do think it goes to the ground. I mean, we've seen Volkov taken down before. I know he does have that 70%, 71% take-down defense. And I know it was taken down by Great Garopplers in Tom Aspinall and Curtis Blades. I think Romanov is going to be able to get it to the ground. And one of the biggest reasons I played Romanov at minus 122, I think this is just a buy-low spot for him.

Like, I mean, in every other fight, sure, the competition was not great, but like every single fight before this, like we're getting them at minus 300, minus 500, minus 2,500 against Chase Sherman, like one of the biggest favorites in UFC history. And say he did get Tybor out of there in the first round. Obviously, he didn't. This is playing hypotheticals. But say he did finish the job in round one. I mean, what is the line looking like? Minus 250, minus 300, Romanov? He's a much bigger favorite than he's currently.

sitting, that's for sure. I'd say minus $3.50. I'm taking this as a buy low spot. If it does not work out for me, I mean, and then Romanov closed and shut case, dude has a gas tank issue. You cannot trust him at all. Much

too big of a step-up for him. But just with where this is at, I'm going to buy Alexander Romanov low. I mean, I can understand the logic. Here's what I'll say. The fight that scared me the most is obviously the Curtis Blades fight, right? like that's a five-rounder he gives up 14 takedowns.

Volkov does. That is a lot of takedowns in a mixed martial arts competition. You're getting ragged all essentially at that point. If you're taking 14 times over 25 minutes. He did. I will say in his defense, though, eight of those came in the first two rounds. As he got a little more comfortable, you see Blades take down success goes down a lot. He ends up missing on more than he hits over the back three rounds.

This is only three rounds, but... That could have been Blades getting tired. Yeah, I was going to say that could have been Blades getting tired, and that could happen to Romanov, like, for sure. Yeah, functionally, this fight just comes down to, is Romanoff's gas tank as bad as it looked as last time out? I'm guessing no. That's my guess.

And I'm guessing, yeah, pretty much is... That's the idiots breakdown to our breakdown of this fight. Yes. I will also give Romanov credit. Like, he is very active once he gets it down to the ground. Like he's looking for ground and pound. He's looking for submissions. He's looking for ways to finish you.

If he can get Volkov flat on his back, I think he can finish him. But yeah, I mean, I will also give you this, another beneficial part for you. You're getting the much more experience, the much more proven fighter in Volkov. And you're getting the guy that the longer the fight goes, whether I believe his gas tank is better than his last fight or not, it benefits Volkov the later this fight goes. And you're getting him at Dogg. I'm also getting the guy who, by your own admission, which I a thousand percent agree with. You said this is a tougher test than Tibera.

A hundred percent agree with, and he lost the Tibera fight, and yet this tougher test is an underdog odd. But I will say it was a weird loss. Like he comes out completely runs this dude over in the first round. I remember we were texting during that because you had the heavyweight over on it. And you're like, well, this is not hitting. It was terrible. No way this is hitting.

Like he was just absolutely there was nothing Marcine Tibera could do it. I was like the stats on it are Marcyne Tibera lands. Hachadida de chal lands one strike for the entire round. Alexander Romanov lands 64 and racks up four minutes and 27 seconds of control time. Like I don't know how two judges can. I don't know how two judges were like 10.9? Like, I don't know. It could have gone either way.

That's just so crazy to me that they were just like, that's a 10-9. That is not a 10-8. I re-watched it too. And it was just pure domination. Now, obviously, like, I mean, the second round was fairly competitive. The third round was like, Tyboro was, like, kind of dog walking. Oh, yeah. He had nothing coming into the third.

He was dunzo, donezo. I also like that's the other thing I go back to is like buying low like if Romanov was like minus 200 there's no shot I would I would be my hand would be forced to take Volkov but yeah like this is this is almost even odds hopefully it works out um really shocked I'm shocked the way you were talking about him pre-tibor fight it didn't take much to get you off of him it did not that fight you're talking the future of that you bad the fight was so bad that it really hurt my feelings and I carry that with me apparently. I guess so. Let's keep it rolling though. Let's move on to a light heavyweight bout. Nikita Krilov taken on Ryan Span. This was supposed to happen a few weeks ago as a main event on an apex card. Alas, we are here. And right now you can have cry love for minus 166, minus 170, Ryan Span at plus 145. Pretty much the same thing as a few weeks ago. I don't know here. Let's talk about it. This feels like we've done this before.

Yeah, yeah. I mean, so I'm still on the under and in parlay pieces. I don't care. Four, five, three, two, whatever the rounds are. I don't expect this to go that long. Span, 23 of 28, haven't gone to a decision. Cryloff, 34, 38 have not gone to a decision. I just imagine the way these guys fights, someone is going to get finished.

What I did add, I don't know what it is. I like, it's a universe bet. It's just kind of whispering in my ear. love the universe. I don't know what it is, man. Something tapped me on the shoulder. And they've been telling me Ryan Span by submission. Ooh.

I don't know why. So you're going on the prop action, huh? Ryan Span, submission plus 500. I don't hate this at all. Here's always, I break it down. Crylov, he's going to go for takedowns, in my opinion. I don't see why he wouldn't. Ryan Span holds the power advantage on the feet.

Is he afraid of that gilly? I mean, that could be it, but why, would he be he go back and watch the paul craig fight dude was chomping at the bit to get to the ground with paul craig the second that fight starts he doesn't have a lot of self-preservation instincts the second that fight starts he immediately goes for a takedown which looked great and then ended up being his own undoing and he gets triangle choked in the first round because he took it to the ground with paul crack why he wouldn't just try to stand and strike with him i don't know um i mean the gilly like can we talk about the gillie there needs to just be a a hoop mix tape

whatever the UFC version of that is for Ryan Span guillotine. Eight of his 12 submission wins have come by guillotine. I mean, yeah, there's a world where he goes for a takedown, can't get Ryan Span down, and Ryan Span jumps gilly, or he catches him with something on the feet and then tries to do that. But another reason is just, Span shockingly for the power that he has on his feet,

12 of his 21 wins are by submission. Cryloff. Five of his nine losses have come by first round submission. four of his last six losses he got submitted in it i will say this though a majority of them are by triangle chokes which doesn't seem to be uh ryan spans forte he's typically guillotine or uh or rear naked i think there's a world where this happens man the way that both these dudes fight how chaotic they are the the high probability that this one ends up on the mat i sprinkled sub plus 500 sub round one plus 900 little sprinkles get a little get the heart pumping and

And hopefully Superman can be my hero on my sub prop dry spell. I'm not opposed to this at all. I will, I think it's important we give this caveat out to the listeners. Connor is physically incapable of ever hitting a subprop. It's impossible. It's impossible. If you're listening to this and you've already placed Ryan Span by submission and you have a physical paper ticket, rip it up.

Yeah. We're just done here. Yes. That's as easy as that. By the nature of Connor making the bet, it is now any possibility that it could have hit has gone away. Yes, no doubt. I don't remember where I was at last time, but I just had the unders. I didn't have a side.

I just had the unders. I looking at, I was like, I think I'm still just back on Ryan Span because I think I had decided to pull the trigger on him, but I don't remember what happened. I always liked the Span side in this. I haven't really considered playing. I think it's a darker pass if you're just doing straight action here. And so I'm firing on Spain. It's plus 145. It's the same.

The price really hasn't changed. You thought about taking him Ryan Span inside the distance like plus 190? I mean, that's probably a better bet, but I'm stupid and didn't even look at it. So where we're at is plus 145. Probably a better bet, though, Connor, for being honest. I consider that one pretty strongly, like making that like a full unit bet, not just like my little sub, like 0.4s and 0.3s. Yeah, no, I think that. that's certainly not a bad one.

I think it's going to be a sick fight. I mean, I think it's going to be really good. It's going to be chaos, going to be fun. Krilov does not have any self-regard. Like, he is just going to throw himself into the fire. And he's either going to get burnt doing that or he's going to break down Spann and take over as this fight wears on. Like, it feels very obvious that this is two true outcomes.

Either Span's going to win this by just lamping Krilov coming in or catching him the gilly or krillow's going to survive the first round and just put a pace on span and he's going to fold. I said it the last time, I'm choosing to take Ryan Span at his word. I obviously have not been doing enough of that this year as I actively was like, John Jones is full of shit. I don't believe him when he says he's going to wrestle. He immediately wrestles and submits his dude.

As soon as Cyril gone over-extended. Yeah. The second it was an option he did it. Ryan Span said last year, most recent fight, I haven't ever really trained for a fight. I was just getting in shape to make weight. Now I'm actively like treating this as a real career and focusing on it. And that's why my last two performances have been so good. I think he's going to make it 3 and O in that regard.

And we're looking at a new future contender. So I took Ryan Spanit at Doggods. All right, man. I don't hate it. Plus, I have to say, I just have to say this, sprinkles always make me feel alive. You always have that in your back pocket to look forward to. It's just like, oh, I forgot we took that crazy prop.

Like, there's a chance it hits. That'll be so funny if it hits. I have that for Ryan Spend, Nikita Crile. I love it. And we're on the same side of what we're hoping for. So I lost on way bigger, way worse bets. My full exposure is 0.7 units. I can live with that. I can live with that. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next up, a featherweight bout Ricardo Ramos sticking on Austin Lingo right now.

You can have Ricardo Ramos for minus 3. He's 60. Austin Lingo coming back at plus 2.95. Yeah, I parlayed up, Ricardo Ramos with Mario Bartista. Lingo, like, might be the better boxer here, but he's coming in off a 20-month layoff. He's withdrawn from two fights in that time. And, like, now he is probably getting, if not certainly getting his toughest opponent to date. I think, I think Ramos has looked pretty good of late. And I think he's, other than the boxing, he's probably better everywhere this fight goes. and I think he gets it done. I just couldn't play anybody in this fight.

I have no confidence that Lingo's going to win this fight. Picking straight up, I'm going to pick Ramos, but this is not a price that I can feel all that confident in with Ricardo Ramos. These lines have gotten steamed pretty huge this week. I took Ricardo Ramos on Sunday at minus 250. Okay. He's minus 360, right? now.

I don't know what's up with a lot of the same price. Got a lot of action moving on it. But, I mean, we're talking about a guy who's lost two of his last four, you know, like just against better competition than he's facing here, obviously. But I just, he's lost almost as many as he's won in recent run here. I'm just not. Can't, can't lay minus 360 on him and feel super confident in it. So pass for me.

All right. Let's keep it rolling to a men's band some way about your favorite division. in the UFC, Saeed and Ermaga Medoff taking on Jonathan Martinez. This is a great fight. Great fight. Right now you can get Saeed for minus 245. Jonathan Martinez coming back plus 205. What are we thinking here, dude? Because I, if I'm not mistaken, we're both pretty big fans of dragon, the kicks, the way that he works at range. He's a nasty little player. What I did, Kyle. Tell me what you're thinking. What I did is I took that $5 for this bet.

And I just lit it on fire because I do not feel confident in betting Saeed Nirmagamatov in this fight. However, I was on or bound to do it because, Connor, if there's one thing I love more than anything, it's a gimmick parlay. And originally there were three Nirmugamatov's fighting this weekend. Abu Bakr had to pull out. We've still got two Nirmis fighting. Saeed and Ushman over and Bellator. Ustman and Bellator is a minus a billion. It is steamed to the moon.

Minus 2,100 is what D.K. A fight that could go to a decision, too. Very well could go to a decision. Yeah, but Benson-Indersen can't win this fight. At least I don't think so, but fuck, what do I know? I thought Alexe Grasso couldn't win this fight, so never trust anything I say. I felt honor bound to do a Nirmagamatov Parlay. I don't feel good about it.

I'm being entirely honest. It's like, I don't think the value is on betting, Saeed and I'm going to met off here. Maybe he is the cleaner striker and the more well-rounded fighter. I'm not even sure that that's true, but like maybe that, but he is too passive for this. Like I think Martinez is going to work at a much higher rate than Saeed. And if they get into grappling exchanges, then sure, I'd say Saeed has the advantage, but I love Mona, not Mona fought last weekend. I love Jonathan Martinez's leg kicks.

I think he's a very live dog in this fight. I'm sort of interested in betting him, but for the fact that I just have to rock the Nirmie Parlay. Here are the two sides that I'm thinking here. Either Jonathan Martinez as a dog or Saeed Nurmaghamedov inside the distance like plus 180. I like in my opinion I feel like that's kind of mispriced like Said four of his last five wins in the UFC have come by finish I feel like he's always alive for a finish even when we saw him struggle in that round one in his last fight against Kakramano and it looked like he was going to get outwork to a decision and then he just pulls up a guillie pulling victories out of nowhere for sure it feels like he's just always alive for a finish throughout the entire fight night I feel like If he's going to win, it's going to be inside the distance.

And you're getting a minus 240 turned into a plus 180 at that point. Like you're making a shift of almost 400 points for what I think is his most likely the outcome. But then I'm kind of like you, man. And then I'm like, is Jonathan Martinez? Like, how live is Jonathan Martinez? Like, if it stays at range and like they're just getting into a striking contest, they're both tricky as hell on the feet, they both have crazy kicks.

Yeah. Jonathan, that's a super winnable fight for Jonathan Martinez. Very minimal. But if Saeed's pushing pressure and he's really trying to force the grappling, like I feel like this is Saeed all day. And I feel like he probably finds a finish. I'm at odds to, dude. I don't know what to do. Either way, I like a plus money play.

I don't like laying the chalk with with Saeed outright. I like either taking the inside the distance or Jonathan Martinez straight. If you were being responsible or not responsible, if you were being a smart better, then you would just not bet this fight. I think I'm probably just not going to bet this fight. I'm going to be totally honest. Yeah. I think that's basically what I'm hearing from you.

I think the correct answer is simply don't bet this fight. If they had like the double. And Jordan is a fan, buddy? Yes. Facts. You're just talking about that. Facts. Facts.

If they had like a Saeed by finish or Jonathan Martinez by decision bet, I would do that. Do they not have that up? Well, it's always like Syed by K.O. or Martinez by decision. They also don't have. those up yet on DK but also yeah it's fair they don't do the the the double chance and double ended that makes sense yeah um yeah i think i'm just going to stay away and then then then yeah you're making smarter choices if saeed wins a decision if saeed wins a decision then i'm just

like cool cool i'm glad i stayed away yeah i think i'm gonna cheer for jonathan martina's though i think i'm gonna be cheering for jonathan martine's uh all right support that because in general i would like to, but I have to root for Nirmie because I don't. If somehow Usman loses on Friday night, then sure, we can all be all aboard the Martinez train. But assuming he doesn't, I got to rock the Nirmie Parley. All right. Let's move up to the last fight on the main card. The light heavyweight bout Vitor Petrino taking on Anton Turcalsh. Right now, you can get Vitor for minus 115, Turcalsh, minus 105. This really just comes down to what do you think is going to happen?

Do you think Petrino's going to knock him out? Or do you think Turcals is going to be able to get the grappling going and just sort of rides it out to a pretty dominant decision win? If you have a feeling on that, props to you. God bless you. You're probably making a really good bet that is going to look really great in hindsight. But I have no idea. I don't know.

This feels like a competitor series fight. here's the truth. It's not just that you don't know. Vegas doesn't know. This is a pick-em-fight, and this is a pick-em-fight for the exact reasons. They have no clue what's going to happen. This isn't like we have mountains of tape, and this is simply too close to call. This is, they've both fought like eight times, and we don't have any clue.

There's no idea of what's going on here. So if you're bed in it, props to you. I think that if I was, like, if you put a gun to my head and we're like, hey, you've got to make a bet on here. One, I'd ask you, why is this the fight that we think that we need to be forcing action on? But I think I'd probably be looking at the under, an alternate under two and a half or whatever, just because I agree that it's probably either going to be a knockout or the pleasure man. Shout out to A.K. Lee gets the grappling going, finds a finish in that room. but you just should not be betting on this fight in any regard, really. It's interesting that it's a main card fight.

I'm not going to lie. I'm not sure why because there's six fights on this main too. This would be pretty clearly the fight to drop from it, do a five-fight main, but it's all on ESPN Plus. It's all the same. Yeah, it doesn't really make a difference. Marshall's buyers travel far and wide, hustling for great deals on amazing gifts. So you don't have to.

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Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, it's a heavyweight bout. You got a couple of these on the card for you.

Is this a heavyweight bout? That's an important question because I'm seeing conflicting reports of heavy weight weight in this year. Tapology does not have this listed as a heavyweight bout. The UFC does. You have it listed. This was not, earlier it was not listed at heavyweight. Okay.

The UFC does. These guys are probably going to weigh in around the same weight. 2.35. Yeah, it's going to light heavies. Yes. They're going to be somewhere in that range. That's where they both weighed in last time. This is a heavyweight belt.

That's important, obviously, for me. Lucas Dreski taking on Carl Williams. Right now, this is one of those lines that has gotten steamed up big time. Carl Williams minus 200 Dreske plus 170 Yeah so like I played

Carl Williams blind Like you want to know why I think you can probably guess why You want to know why Georgia boy I mean Atlanta top team's very own Like I mean

American top team Atlanta American top team Atlanta I prefer Atlanta top team Thanks though I respect it I'm glad that you You noted that

I took it at a much different line though dude I'm not gonna lie Like these lines have really gotten steamed up. Yeah. I was talking actually again with A.K.A. Lee before this. And it was just like I can't bet against Carl Williams because he's trained at ATT, Atlanta. Got to respect the group.

I don't have any confidence. And I could never lay this price on him, though, because I have no, again, no confidence in the outcome here. I will say it is, it's a heavy wave fight. We had to do it. We're taking the over, two and a half. It's minus 115. I don't know that I feel good about that either, if we're being honest. But let's hope that things get real heavyweighty because it could certainly get very heavy weighty amongst these fellows.

And that's the dream for me is that this goes long. Well, I think there's a real chance of that happens. I went back and watched the Dreske Boudet fight. I mean, it felt like Dreske did enough to win that fight. I mean, he significantly outstriked Boudet, but I guess, you know, Boudet was landing more damaging shots. I don't think Draskey carries a ton of power here, dude. I mean, there was never, there was never even a moment where Boudet was in trouble, man. Like, yeah, he's got five knockout wins or whatever it is against super low-level competition.

But, like, I mean, through the 15 minutes, he landed like 125 significant strikes, and there was never a moment where Boudet looked like he was in trouble. And I don't know how long this is going to stay standing for. Like Carl Williams. I think Carl's probably going to get it to the floor. I mean, as an underdog, as an underdog, he went in there and just ragdolled a Penn State wrestler. Like can't really speak too much on Dreskes take down defense.

But from the opening bell, Carl Williams, beautiful level change and gets, secures a takedown and then racks up like 12 minutes of control time and lands a lot of shots. He works from the top too. I feel good about Carl Williams here. I think there's a clear path to victory. Come in, take him down, win the fight. I support you. I think it both will figure over, too.

I think it both is well for you over. I really hope so. I'd like to ask you a question as we move on about the fight that's not on our list. Because I was a little surprised, particularly after hearing that you took Carl Williams in the dark, ATT Atlanta guy guy, Hafeil a son-out, Marietta guy. I knew. I knew you. I knew you. I knew you.

I knew this. I knew. I knew you. I knew. Or Alfreda, sorry, Alpharetta guy. Here's my thing. Here's my thing.

I think he did what he had to do for us against Victor Henry. That was a beautiful cash. We got him at like plus 300. It was, it was unbelievable. He did what he had to do. And, you know, his time is done. I, like, I'm a guy who's better on.

So you're not feeling confident about, about David Grant for him. Is what I'm hearing. David Grant's, David Grant's a chaotic man. if it stays standing, I think Davy Grant's probably going to get the better of the exchanges. I don't know, man. I also have to remember that as Sunsau is 40.

So I am on the fence on this one. That's where I was. The idea of Davy Grant reflexively makes me think that he probably should just hit Hafeu Sunsau, but he's not the best defensive wrestler. a son's out is a very smart fighter he's composed on the feet Grant's a little wild

can probably avoid the big shots I think particularly getting my underdog odds right now again think that this could be okay the thing honestly that has kept me away is I thought he would be a little bit bigger of an underdog I thought I'd be getting a bit more of a price on and plus one 20

is not a huge kick for me here and so it's it leaves me uh it leaves me asking questions i guess i was hoping coming into this blind i was hoping maybe you had something a feel a vibe here obviously not the case maybe i i want to see when we get a little more prop action down maybe see what a son's out by decision is there is i guess the fear of a submission a suntow was a bjj blackbow but that hasn't ever really been his game for the most part So a Suns Out by decision Maybe we get a little bit more line release on it But I'm circling this fight

Plus 220 Suns Out by decision plus 220 Oh that's That might get me Here's what I've learned That might get me into it from there Here's what I've learned Just because I'm a fan of someone

Just because I'm going to support them Does not mean that I have to place a wager on them Could have come in handy With Seraghan last week I can just I mean Volkanovsky as close as that fight was,

my tickets still would have been losers had I bet on Volcanovsky supporting him as a fan. Just because I'm going to be cheering for a Sunsau. Seeing fighting out of Alfreda Georgia gets me going. I mean it just wraps me up. Doesn't mean I have to bet on him.

If I was going to this event, I would be placing a wageer on Raphael of Sontow, no doubt. But because I'll be watching for my couch... 14 of a Sonsal's 28 wins by decision. and that's a lot. David Grant. David Grant.

I mean, been submitted a number of times, but not all that recently. I don't know. I don't know. I may, I'm not pulling the jury yet, but I'm very much considering

just betting a son's out here. I'm not doing it yet. I'm going to continue to think. I might have talked off the ledge. But my defense is, if you're having this much. That's a great argument. Arrugment, stay away.

I think we're in a learning process together. I think that's what we're doing here. I hope the listeners are writing on this together. The bets, I place too many bets. That's just point blank true. When it comes to a UFC card, I place way too many bets. I actually would love if I could get my bets down to like limit like five singles and like one parlay every card. I'm getting better, but I still have eight singles and two parlias for this card.

I've actively gotten worse since we started doing the show. Yeah, I mean, I got eight, I've got eight singles and two parleyes. And I think that's it. I think I'm done. I think that's it. I think if you're having this much inter-question. I have eight singles, one parlay, and then an open parlay leg. Here's what I'm going to do, Connor, and then we can move on.

Not going to bet. Yes. if this price moves to plus 150, then I'm taking the shot on him. And that's where we're not going to play the prop. I don't think it will. But if something happens, if David Grant gets steamed up and we get a Suntz out plus 150 or higher, at that point I'm going to jump on it. I don't mind that.

I don't mind that. A man of principal, a man that plays at prices. Numbers matter in this in this game, folks. Numbers definitely matter. Yeah, I mean, I don't hate that you brought that up. I don't hate that you did. Obviously, you had to him fighting out of jewelry. Georgia. I mean, if we were really, you know, being degenerance, you'd do the Georgia parlay, and it would be Marab.

I considered it. I considered it for sure. I mean, maybe that's your D-Gen play of the week. Marab by decision, a Sun-South by decision, Carl Williams by decision, the Georgia decision parlay? Can I tell you, can I tell you the real D-Gent thought I have? It goes back to an early one. I'm not on it, but. Scratch that it. Volkov in round three. Is it plus 1,400? And plus 1,400 Volkov in round three. And I was just, I was just hovering over it. Like, I'm not going to lie. I never even looked at the number, but that dude. What if Romanov gasses out and Volkov just puts it on him as the fight goes on?

As I was taping. As I was taping. As I was taping. It's not a finisher. Volkov kind of is. Like. As I was taping it. What's round two?

What's round two? Hold on. I'll look it up for you. But as you were taping it while I'll look this up. Uh, I, I, Volkov round two is plus 850. Okay, that's not nearly as enticing, but, uh, it's much less big of a number than plus 1,400.

I'm, I'm actually, whoa, I'm seeing a book with plus 1,700. That is even more enticing. Wow, that has come down drastically at one book. It opened up at, uh, dude, it's actually hilarious that you say that because that exact thought process crossed my mind. If he survives,

dude. We gotta do it then. If he survives round one, well, I don't mind this because it's just like a sprinkle. Like we're just like... Yeah, we should put a buck on it. One percent of my brand new bankroll is going on this then.

Gotta do it. I mean, I don't mind like, is there like a Volkov 2 or 3 prop out there? Uh, is that like... Ooh, probably not. I don't, well, maybe.

I don't think D.K. does it because I think D. I think D.K. does one and two and then three in decision. And they're paired. Yeah. And they're paired groupings. I mean, that makes sense. All right. I haven't placed that yet, but like, I might just have, like, I do my graphics for them.

I might just have a whole Sprinkles graphics this week. Oh, just. So ice cream cone sprinkles? Just. Yeah. I mean, it's, it's actually funny that you say that because that is something that I seriously consider was Volkov. I feel so confident now that we've both considered it.

I'm throwing a buck on it and, you know, maybe we'll make a big, big juicy game. All right, that's 0.2 units for you. I'll throw, I'll throw 10 pieces on it. Point two units for myself as well. Yeah, I don't, I don't mind that. I might even make it a full quarter unit. I don't, no, I'm not. Don't do that.

Point two units, point two units. Point two units. Point two units, like that's, that's it. Get in, get out. I'm interested to hear your thoughts on this because. I won't even pretend like I have any of them for this bout. Are you talking about Dumas versus friend? I sure am.

I mean, it's like if we want to get into it, like if you're on MMA Twitter, like this seems to be the bout in contention this week. This is the point of all arguments going on right now. It feels like everybody's on Dumas and anyone who isn't says that anyone on Dumas is just a square loser. I mean, it's hot in the streets. personally I don't get into that kind of stuff don't really care what anyone else bets like I like seeing people win but in terms of like what else people bet I don't really care I took

Dumas at minus 140 uh I like first of all for me it was dumas or stay away sure it's I know it's typically dogger pass but like I'm just I'm not putting my money on friend uh went back and watched the Trachon Gore fight like yeah he had he found some success but like I don't don't rate Trashon Gore very highly. And he got finished in the second round by Trayshon Gore. And sure, he survived 15 minutes against Fluffy, but it was never really in doubt who was going to win that fight. I just think Dumas is going to be the faster guy with the better grappling here.

And I think he's going to push the pace and try and get a finish here. And I don't think Fram is going to like that. And I think he's going to get it done inside the distance. I respect your breakdown. I could never trust my money on either of these fighters. I'm not going to bet on a man named dumbass. You just can't do it. You hold a little bit of contention towards him

because he wanted to charge for an interview. Did he really do that? Oh, I thought you would have heard about this. Yeah, he wanted to charge someone $100. That's, I had not heard about that. I don't hold any ill will. I mean, now that everyone's involved in it. Now that everyone's involved in it, I wish I didn't bet on it.

I understand that feeling. Is he the dude that the, I think I actually maybe remember hearing about this, so I didn't recognize that it was him. Yeah, I don't, I mean, good for you, I guess, if you think you can get it, but I am extremely confident that no one should ever pay that man for an interview until he puts some more wins under his belt in an organization than matters. Yeah. Yeah.

Who knows? I can end up being wrong. That's okay. And I'm sure on Twitter, you know, this will be. this will be the deciding factor of who is a competent gambler and who is not. That's just kind of how Twitter works. I think last week it was the MAB, Marquez fight. I think that was like, there's always the one each week on Twitter that people like decide

that that's the who knows what. Yeah, that that's like the defining factor in Sharp for Square. A couple weeks ago it was on Drogh Blanchfield. I was a square that week. I was a sharp the week after. Who knows what all happened here? But yeah, I mean, it's not going to be a bet that I say that I have a ton of confidence in it. Yeah, sure.

Yeah, we'll see. I've gotten a decent amount of CLV this week, which means absolutely nothing. But that is, you know, that line is moving more and more. So I guess if you're going to want to play friend, maybe you hold off a little bit. One that I have that isn't on the list of fights that we're going to talk about. I just want to throw it out. Secret secret bet. J.J. Aldrich versus Arianna.

I tell me because I want action on this fight. When you have a chance to bet on bad women's flyweight fights, how do you pass it up? J.J. Aldrich is, you know, her last loss was there in Blanchfield. Age pretty well. It's not a bad loss. She found some success there, too. So sure, she got finished. Ariolski has just looked terrible of late.

Like she has not looked good at all. Finished in her last three losses, all coming by some sort of knockout or ground and pound. She's never lost by submission. Ariani, JJ Aldrick has never won by submission. Now, that would be too big brain. I'm not going that far. I love this galaxy brain tank.

That's going way too far. That's going way too far. far. I mean, that would just be an insane thing. What would we say to J.J. Aldrich by knockout? Knowing she hasn't knocked anyone out since 6 and 8 Cathena Low in 2016. Yeah, that is a tough hang. I love the ambition. I cannot follow you into this battlefield.

What are you thinking? If you were going to put action down, what would you be thinking? Probably JJ Aldrich by decision. I don't even know what that price is right now. I mean, it's minus money. It's minus money. Yeah, well, yeah. She's minus like 300 something.

So, and all she does is win by decision. So I'm sure it's minus like 180 or something. Yeah, I mean, some could say she couldn't even finish a pizza pizza. Others. Big brains. Some can say. I'm seeing plus 100 to minus. 1-20 around on best fight odds.

So, you know, about even money. If you made me bet, it would be that, or I would take maybe an over, you know. Maybe I'll parlay up over one and a half when that alternate line drops. But I'm just not betting. I'm trying to be a little bit smarter after losing literally my entire bankroll. That's probably a good thing to do. I don't know why, man. I don't know why.

I might throw a quarter unit. If the universe is calling to you, just throw a sprinkle. I might throw a sprinkle. Down on J.J. Aldrich by knockout. Throw a sprinkle on the universe calling to you. Okay, here's another one that I'll throw out to you. J.J. Aldrich minus three and a half points. That covers the finish.

But it's also her being pretty dominant in decision when minus 130. The last... I like that a lot better. Listen, the last... The last two that we threw out point spreads, I said John Jones, minus five and a half plus... 180 that would have gone well the one that we really talked on last week that none of us played that we should have was tabitha ritchie minus three and a half plus 165 we really messed up

not taking it just just an idiot maneuver from us realistically just an absolute bozo maneuver I mean when was the last time actually I kind of like this because I'm looking looking back through Lipski's run right now her loss is outside of the finishes. I mean, she got 3027 to cross board by Molly McCann. 3026s against Joy and Calderwood. What does J.J. Aldrich like to do? What is she talking about?

There's no way. This is 20. J.J. Aldrich? 3027, Jillian Robertson? What's the price on that? 3027 Vanessa Demopolis? I love this. What's the price on this?

You could be selling me right now. Minus 130. for the point spread yeah oh okay here's a here's a really interesting world she she 3027 on one scorecard which that's all you need and then 29 28 so she would have covered this spread in wow yeah she would have covered this spread in all but two of her UFC wins so one two three four five six seven so five of her seven and Lipski would have lost this in all five of her UFSI And all five of losses, I'm lucky in. I'm in.

I'm in, minus 130. Let's go. Mine is, I think I might get crazy. This is, we found this just together, unity. Adding more bets, that's what I definitely needed on this card, is more bets. I still might throw the quarter unit, sprinkle on J.J. Aldrich by K. Oh, you know this. You know this from, from my Dana Hooker days.

When the universe says, I just, this is happening. And I just said, Dan Hooker, TKO round two, it's going to happen. Boom. You got to follow the universe. J.J. Aldrich minus. I like that much better than the K.O., but there's... The points per bet I'm actually a big fan of. So I'm on that with you.

I'm jumping in. That has been placed. J.J. Aldrich by K.O. guessing around is too cute. K.O. plus 400. Don't hate that one bit. All right, let's keep this moving because we are running out of time. I have nothing to say on that.

these fights almost. Well, good, because I'm going to be very quick. Men's Bantamway about Mario Bautista, 43-year-old Guido Canetti. Batista is minus a million. Kennedy's whatever coming back. I took Bautista at minus 800. Yeah, Kennedy, wild, decent striker. Sure, he's won his last two fights against Chris Matino and Randy Costa.

Those men cannot be trusted. He's 43 of Bantamweight, and now he's getting a serious test. A dude that has looked fantastic his last few times out in Mario Bautista. I think Bautista has this standing. I think he has this on the ground. I think that's what he's going to do is take this to the ground and finish Kennedy. I got Batiste in a parley. I got fight doesn't go to a decision in a parley.

That's how I feel about that one. I have no notes. We can move on to the final UFC fight. Last one that we get to talk about. It is a men's flyway. Is that one? 125 pounds? 125 in our we back.

We lost out on our last one with O'Day Osborne and Charles Johnson. I mean, it's far away about. No, no, you didn't hear me correctly. We lost out on it. We didn't lose the bet. We lost out on it because Charles Johnson came in heavy. We get this one. I trust both these guys.

Tyson NAM, vet, professional. Bruno Silva, yeah. We're coming in at 125, 125 and a half, maybe 126 if we're feeling froggy when it comes to Wayans on Friday. Here's the thing. Here's why I like this one. I took the under two and a half minus 140. What better way to come back?

Tyson NAM, three wins in the UFC? all three coming by first or second round knock out. Oh, you got it at minus 140. Yeah, what are you? It's coming the other way. It's minus 135 right now. Wow. Wow.

Okay. A little, not what I expected. They, they must, the Vegas must not be aware that Odea Osborne missed weight. And so they adjusted incorrectly. That's, that's where we're going. Got it. Give it to, get it to even money somehow. I don't know.

Everyone keep pounding me over. I'll play it again. I'll put another half unit on it if it gets to even money. I'm down like that. All in. on the flywood unders, baby. Bruno Silva, two wins in the UFC, both by first or second round knockout. Five wins by these guys in the UFC, all by first or second round knockout. Now, sure, you're probably going to be like, but Connor, none of them have been knocked out. What I say to that, just because you haven't been knocked out doesn't mean you can't be knocked out. And if this day's standing,

which Tyson Am has never completed to take down in the UFC, Bruno Silva might look to grapple. I would imagine he's going to. Dyson NAM is stuffed all four takedowns thrown up against them in the UFC. If it stays standing, I feel very confident in someone getting dropped here. Both these dudes have actual serious power at 125, especially Tyson NAM. And I think someone gets put out and I think we cash another flyweight under. I feel very confident just because every flywood under bet this whole year has been stupidly easy in cashing. There's something in the water. There's something in the water down there at 125.

The least stressful bets of all time. I think this is one that goes late second round and then we get the finish. Let me tell you how confident I am. I am more worried about one of them missing weight than I am about this not hitting under because they miss weight then chaos, cause, and effect, anything could happen. But absolutely, I mean, it's obvious. It's a flywood under. What are we talking about here?

Not to be a dick. Not to ruin your day. I don't want to be that guy. Your confidence really carries no weight after last week. I have to say that. It doesn't. I understand that. And I'm...

Neither of our confidence should carry any weight. Like, let's be real here. Uh, 2023, we entered some sort of weird dimension where we just can't get out of the blocks. It's... Look, all right. The past is for cowards. Mine is...

Listen, I'm not having a bad year. I'm not going to say that yet. I'm having a mediocre year. That's how... That's where I'm at right now. I'm not, I'm not ready to say bad yet. I love this. I love that.

I love the optimism. It's a spend. Because all it takes is one big week and then we're back. And then we're so back. Because even if I say I just win like three units this week, then it's like, I just cut the red in half. And now we're just going to get it all back on 286. I'll say you've just convinced me of something. I love the idea of all you need is one big week and you get it back.

I now am for sure just going to throw $1 on a super, super grimy parlay a week that'll pay out infinite dollars if it hits. Because then I have the hope of one big shot and we're there. Is it smart? I just need that mojo. But I just need the one. I need that mojo back. I need my Billy Strut. I need that like, yep, how'd you do this week, Connor?

I did fucking great, man. I went six and one on singles and hit both my parlayes, and I ended up nine units. That's what I need. I just need one of those weeks to shake off the cobwebs. It's like I hate the year reset thing. Like, dude, I bet all the way up until Bellator Horizon last year. Literally the final day of 2022, one, like three units on that. that. And it's like ever since the flip, the script is flip, it's all gone south.

It's, I hate the, I hate the year flip. I have to say, I hate it. That's all the time we've got, though. Before we get out of here, I want to very briefly throw a couple bellator's at you. Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. I know that you're not on any Bellator action at the moment, which seems crazy to me considering, as you said at the top of the episode, most of your wins have come in boxing in Bellator. So, I just really don't like this card. I'm not going to lie. Okay. I mean, it's fair. I'm on the aforementioned Usman, Nirmigamatov, in the Nirmie Parlay. It's, we don't even need to talk about that fight. Okay. I'm going to be taking Michael Page. He is currently listed at minus 120 against Go Ti Amochi.

So, Mission 3rd doesn't worry you at all? No, it just feels like a good, good price for him. Like, this is, it won't shock me if Goethe gets it done. But I think Page is very difficult to get down. I mean, he's proven pretty, Logan Storley played hell trying to get him down, just held him for a long period of time. And he's still a very dynamic striker. So maybe it's a Mark move. I'm taking it anyway, minus 120. I really want to have something on the comming.

I haven't done the tape study to crunch numbers on Shabli and Musayev. But let me ticker your fancy with Moldovsky-Linton Vassel. Currently, Moldovsky, major, major. favorite, but you know what this fight is, Connor? It's a heavyweight fight. Oh. And there's an over, at two and a half is minus 150. I don't know if you know this. These two fine gentlemen have fought before, several years back, that went to a grimy old decision.

Because I don't know if you know this, Valentin Woldovsky only goes to grimy old decisions. That man has never finished a slice of pizza per previous words. outside of the no contest from an accident on eye poke, his last five fights have all gone to the scorecards. And before that, it's like eight of his last nine or ten of his last 11, some huge number. Man just goes to the cards. Over two and a half is minus 150.

Linton Vassel, not a big finisher either. So I'm extending my heavyweight overs to Bellator this week as well. That I don't hate. You gave the numbers for it. You gave while you were taking it. I don't hate that, dude. I actually think, like, legitimately, that's just a very reasonable bet to be making this weekend.

But again, I know I'm a moron. We are both morons. We're in this together. Love the team spirit. You know? Yeah, I mean vassal, like, three of his last four wins are by K.O., I suppose. Yeah, but we've seen this fight. No exact what's going to happen.

It's going to be a lot of hugging. I guess Moldovsky has never been finished before. Yeah. Just feels like it should it be minus 150 for this to be over two and a half. Yeah, yeah. So I'm not saying go crazy. This is the block of the century. Yeah, I haven't placed it yet.

Maybe we can get it down to win the half unit. You know, just think about it. You just, you think about it. And we'll reconvene next week. You'll let me know what you did on it. Yeah, I mean, I can promise you I'm going to take a nasty, violence barlet for bellator these these squash matches typically set up for some first round finishes so yeah i'm i'm definitely going to look into that as lines continue to drop throughout

the week that is all we've got time for though that is it a little bit of bell toore 2902 doesn't really get the gears going as much i mean march is a ufc month you just kind of kind of got to accept that we'll focus on other things in april uh wrestling mania we got tank garsia sure You're going to have to talk me through Russellmania bets. I actually don't know how to do it myself. Royal Rumble is my specialty. That's my cup of tea.

Predict the men's and women's one of the last two years. No big deal. It's almost like it's scripted to me. NBD. It's just no big deal. But we, those are for later. Episodes of No Betts barred for now. Thanks so much for listening.

This is the week. I just have to say it, Jed. This is the week. So we can get back on track, baby. I can't wait. I cannot wait to get back on track. This is... For all of us here at No Betts Bard.

Thanks for listening. See you next week. UFC 286, London. London town. UFC London. Let's go. Love you guys. Listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Hi, I'm Sophia Loper Carroll, host of the Before the Chorus podcast. We dive into the life experiences behind the music we love. Artists of all genres are welcome. And I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks, like glass animals. I guess that was the idea was to try something personal and see what happened. And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts.

Oh, and remember, so much happens before the chorus.