MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Sean O'Malley Get Revenge Against Chito Vera At UFC 299? Plus Ngannou vs. Joshua

Episode Date: March 6, 2024

UFC 299 is here and it is ridiculous. This Saturday at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla., UFC 299 takes place headlined by a bantamweight grudge match between champion Sean O'Malley and former foe Chito Vera. That's just the tip of the iceberg though at 299 is one of the most stacked cards in recent memory, with some people even suggesting it could be better than UFC 300 on paper. Plus, Francis Ngannou is boxing Anthony Joshua this weekend as well so with this amount of insane action, the No Bets Barred boys had to bring in a third chair. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew are joined by Tony Calatayud this week as he's boots on the ground in Miami, and the trio dives deep into all the insane action awaiting us this weekend. Can Sean O'Malley get his revenge on Chito Vera? Has Father Time caught up to Dustin Poirier? How will Michael "Venom" Page look in his UFC debut? And can anything stop the ascent of Jailton Almeida. All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 80 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Tony Calatayud: @10DayTony Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

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the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine.

Available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back. Another edition of No Betts Barred this time. UFC 299, baby. It feels like this one's been a long

time coming, been a lot of talk about this one. Promotion returns to Miami, Florida. Cannot wait. I mean, just going through this card, doing all the research, I realized I cannot wait for this card on Saturday. I love that it's Miami. I love the fights on this card. And with it being in Miami, you know what we had to do. You know what we had to do. We had to bring in old T.C. Got the call on Sunday. Jed said, do we bring in Tony? I said, we got to bring in Tony. Are you kidding me? Our man, Tony Kalada, you joins the program. How we feeling today? What's up, boys? I am so excited for this fight, for this card, for everything.

For everything. I'm fighting between us right now is what I was talking about, by the way. The fight between us three, a three-way fight that we're about to have going through these fights. But like, the UFC has now made it something that they're going to do every single year, an annual event in Miami, which means I'm at least booked for the next. I don't know how many years on this podcast anytime they come to Miami. So I'm very excited about that. I mean, you're basically the third chair at this point. Might as well be at this point.

I mean, we don't have too many other guests. You know, we have like, it's essentially we have people on location. We got Bayeune over in England that he comes on, Bayouin. Who else have we had on this show? We had AK when he was boots on the ground in Canada. Yep. We had Mike on for the Boston card. I mean, you got to have some association with the town the UFC's going to or he ain't getting in, all right?

Exactly. And fortunately, we're going to Miami a bunch of families. So, will you be there? I will be in the building. Of course, you know, it's my home city. I had to make sure that the boys had a representative out there. I will be locked in for 299. I don't know where yet, right?

I might just be a floating guy. I might be cage side. I might be up in the box. I might be somewhere in the mix with the people. Like, I don't know yet. No idea. Either way, boots will be firmly planted on the ground. Quickly before we get into the card, I mean, and I mean quickly.

Last week, slaughtered. I got killed, crushed. Second worst week ever. Finished down like 8.34 units. I mean, I'm on a roller coaster ride this year. I mean, I'm a flamethrower for a couple weeks, and then I'm just a complete dumpster fire the next. Jed, did we log the first winning week of the year?

We did. It was a miracle. One full unit and a little bit of change. And, Connor, it came about in the greatest fashion of all, I got to tell you. because while it was a tough week for you, it was not a great start for me because I, I like you, believed in the Bosheropros. And the-we-fated-Haw-A-Wa-Wan.

Yeah, we faded Halwant. Yeah, we faded Halwant. That didn't go well for us. The Favorites Parlay immediately was crashed. But that was a good thing for me because I realized after we hung up, after we finished recording, we pushed the pod live. I was talking to the aforementioned A.K. Lee. I was going back. I took a little more time to look at the card than I had pre-pre-prep.

and I realized that I had missed the greatest gimmick bet of them all, which is the, the Biggie boy parlay. Biggie boy and y'a boy on the same card. Got to parley together. Obviously, I couldn't do that with the favorites parley existing because, you know, those two bets can't exist together.

But the moment that Batcharat lost, I rebooked the favorites parlay except the main event. I just put the other three legs in and punched it. and then I put together the Gires, and your Rosen strike, Biggie Boy Parley, both of them cashed. We finally get a winning week. I mean, we're still down for the year, Connor.

But we broke the seal. That's what matters. We broke the seal. I was very nervous when I proposed that question because it's just like, you know, I joke about how bad of betters we are, but I mean, we do tend to win. We do tend to win.

We do tend to win. And I was like, man, me coming off my worst week of the year, you know, second worst week of all time. If Jed hasn't logged the winning week yet, I mean, what are we doing here? Like, it's just, but there we go. Now we build the winning streak for you, and now it's bounce back season for me at 299. I mean, probably not building a winning streak because I have so many bets this week. If I finish positive, I'll be amazed with the amount of action.

They all sound like winners to me. They all sound like winners to me. I've got a decent amount of action, not too exposed, but picked my spots on this one. And let's dive right in. Let's get right into it. We got a lot of fights talking about tonight as well. A couple other promotions as well, a couple other sports as well that I want to get into at the end of this bad boy.

But let's start. Main event, 299, bantamweight championship of the world. Sugar, Sean O'Malley facing Marlon, Cheeto, Vera right now. Sean O'Malley, your big favorite. I mean, I was a touch shocked at seeing this. At minus 300 at some books, was not expecting to be seeing that. current odds. My internet is just not loading.

I want to say he's like a minus 285 right now or something on Draft King's sportsbook. Around like plus 215 coming back for Cheeto Vera. Minus 258 on Draft King. Oh, minus 258. So he's coming back in a bit. Either way, he is a sizable favorite in this one. I'm actually surprised that the line is not minus 400, minus 500 now that we got the announcement today,

that he will be fighting in pink championship shorts this weekend. I mean, that was huge. That was a huge moment to say. I mean, the champ does what the champ wants. I mean, that was, I'm a sucker for the shorts colors. We're still waiting on a purple pair

for maybe Brendan Allen and Ian Gary, but we're making steps. It sees you got the power when you have the belt. You can kind of make the calls that you want. To the fight itself. It's a pretty sick fight, man. Rematch, obviously. Cheeto Vera won the last time out.

There were some complications with the leg of Sean O'Malley. You know, was it Cheeto Vera that caused it? there was it just a freak injury either way chito vera comes away victorious and that's essentially why he is getting this title shot on saturday i mean he he got beat i know it was a split decision maybe the worst split decision in history by chio by cori sanagan handily last year uh but now he's still getting the title shot what do you guys think how do we how do we play this one out jet i'll let you start oh i'm excited uh i also just want to this is called podcasting connie you didn't do this this happened off air we've been promised

A lot of, oh my God, I'm sorry for not teasing. Lock of a millennium. That is not radio etiquette for me. We have a guarantee that we are going to be receiving on the prelims of this very show, a lock of the millennium from one Tony right here on the program. And you know what? I'll do a double tease. I got a plus 5,000 this week that I actually feel decent about.

I have a plus 5,000. We will get to that later. 50 to one odds. I can't wait to get into it with you. But that is for much later in the program. we're going to be teasing a lot of stuff that I've got a new gimmick I'm dropping this week which I'm very excited about love a gimmick and I've got to actually know if it's plus 5,000 I got to figure this out but it's going to be a big number as well but let's talk about the

main event first because it's why we're all here uh I can talk about this fight forever but I don't want to because there's just so much obviously want to get Tony's expertise in here here's my short summary of this fight and where I'm coming from boys I went back rewatch the first fight. I gotta say, Sean Amalley looked better than I remember I'm looking like

in that fight until the sort of drop-foot weirdness that happened. Granted, the fight really barely got started before it ended. You know,

a lot of weirdness happened. Very different fighters at this time. But it made me feel a little worse about kind of where I've been the whole time because where I've been

from the moment they announced this fight was, I think you know, very's going to win. I don't think he's remotely close to the best band of way

in the world. He did just get run up and done up by Corey Sanhagan. Not that long ago. Marab would do exactly the same, if not worse, to him. But I think that this is a tough matchup stylistically for Sean O'Malley in a lot of ways because at some point, Cheeto's going to get you.

And the way to beat Cheeto Vera we have seen, like a lot of dudes have outstruck Cheeto, without landed Cheeto for a long time. Dominic Cruz was handily beating Cheeto Vera until he wasn't, because that's the sort of fighter Cheeto is. I think these two dudes are going to hit each other a bunch. And it's real simple, you couldn't knock out Cheeto with a steel bar. Like, you could hit Cheeto in the face with a shotgun blast.

And I think he's just going to be like, all right, cool, whatever. Let's keep going. And the same cannot be said for Sean O'Malley. Not that he's not durable, but few men are built like Cheeto. And so this, to me, this feels not stylistically the same, but the strokes are similar to Max Holloway, Joseo Aldo is beating Max Holloway in both of their fights. but he could not hurt Max Holloway and could not keep Max off him. And so eventually he just succumbed.

And I think that the same thing, O'Malley's going to have to fight perfectly for 25 minutes. That's a real tall task. And I just, at best, I think this fight is 50-50, if not advantage Cheeto in this respect. And so I'm getting a big number on Cheeto plus 240 is what I got him at. And there's a ton of value there. So I took the bet on Cheeto Vera. Wow. Tony, what's it at you?

My thing is, what Cheeto are you going to see? Because if we saw the Cheetah that came out against Corey, this one might get wrapped up quick. Because I feel like Sean's at a different level right now. And yes, Sean hasn't been tested to the likes of Cheeto except when you go back and see the fight against Cheeto. And like you said, he was a lot better than you remember him being. I have to go back and watch that fight because I don't even remember. Like I have to have that refresher and I will in the next couple days. but for me it's like what what sean did to KO Aljo I not that I don't want to say I saw I didn't see it coming but it was just so clean the slide and finish with the right hand that I was like oh my God okay Sean is like moved to like another level now so for me I think he's just got too much confidence he he's looking across this division being like who can really touch me like this and Cheeto can

but I'm very worried about the Cheetah that we're going to see. Like, hopefully, obviously you have the misinformation campaign that's been running like Cheeto had a bad camp, Aljo's saying, and then Cheetos coach comes out and says, no,

he's had a great camp. He's knocking people out in drills and stuff. And it's like, who do we believe, right? I don't know where Aljo got his information from. But Cheeto is one of those fighters that if he comes out a little bit off, like I think, I think O'Malley can win easily.

Yeah. Yeah, so it feels like you're O'Malley, you're Cheeto. I am somewhat split. The way that I think the fight goes, I think that Sean O'Malley is going to win. I think this is going to go five rounds, and I think that Sean O'Malley is going to, for the most part, outpoint Chee-Overer, and avoid getting got like Dominic Cruz and people of the past. Maybe he gets hit with a few power shots, but he doesn't go fully out. I just can't deny the fact that more than likely, if it goes five rounds, so therefore, Shugashon O'Malley has survived all rounds. He will have outstruck Chito Vera. I mean, if you look at it, other than his last

fight against Pedro Munoz, he typically starts slower. He typically gets outstruck by a wide margin. I mean, he has a negative striking differential throughout his UFC career. And Shugashon O'Malley is putting up like 7.25 significant strikes a minute. Like he puts up insane volume. I can't imagine a world where we get to the end of 25 minutes and it's a mostly striking affair and Cheeto Vera landed, you know, 40 more strikes than Sean O'Malley. I imagine he's going to outpoint him on the cards. But what Jed was saying,

over the course of 25 minutes, Cheeto Vera does have an ability to get you. I mean, he did it. He beat Rob Font by essentially just catching him what at the end of like two, three rounds. Like he got so thoroughly outstruck numbers-wise, but he was hurting Rob Fon, bad, just clubbed him bad. And he ended up winning a decision that way. Dominant Cruz, that was a tight, tight fight.

If that goes all five rounds, there's a very real chance that Dominic Cruz gets his handraising that one. Cheeto Vera catches him out of nowhere with a beautiful head kick. Is Cheeto going to catch Sean O'Malley? I don't know. But I also agree with this in what Jed said. you cannot put this man, Chito Vera out. Not only does he not get dropped, he doesn't get knocked out, he doesn't get knocked down. He wears punches ridiculously well. He's like Palo Costa the other week. That's crazy. He just doesn't look like he got his ass beat, even if he did get his ass beat.

So I think Sean O'Malley is going to have to go all 25 minutes with this guy. I know Sean O'Malley has knockout power, but Chito Verre just has one of those chins that you're just like, this dude is just not going down. So what I think is going to happen is it's going to go 25 minutes. Sean O'Malley is going to out point shoot O'Fera and retain the Bantamweight Championship. But I do not have enough confidence in that to play him at minus 250, minus 300, whatever he's at right now. So I'm just staying away on a side and I'm just going to enjoy this main event. Interesting.

I thought you were going to. So I have my other section of notes here that I'll get into right now is I have considered doing a two-way hedge or waiting for draft Kings to open up the either or betting options of O'Malley by decision but I cheetahe by Keough. If you're betting O'Malley, you should just bet O'Malley by decision. He's not finishing Cheeto because Cheeto cannot be finished. Like if he finishes Cheeto, this dude really has taken it to an, a next last. If he finished Cheeto out, I will be.

If he finishes Cheeto, I will, I still won't like it. I will not even complain about them doing them being like, let's do Iliate to Puria. Like I would be like, all right. I mean, it's dumb, but he finished Cheeto. so sure, maybe he can finish anyone. He's not finishing him, and that price is plus 100 right now. Like, if you want to be a O'Malley backer, take the buy decision prop. And I've considered, like I said, considered hedging there because, you know,

plus 100 there and plus 240 on Cheeto, I feel like I've got every aspect of that fight covered pretty cleanly. So I just assume that that's where you're going with that talk because I agree with a lot of it, man. I think we're on the same page with this read of the fight. So I actually have it written down. I literally have O'Malley decision, Cheeto Verrakeo. If they have a bet, I will place it. Obviously, those lines are not available to me just yet. That prop has not dropped.

But it's something if there was a good price. I mean, if it's minus 300, I'm not playing it. If it's minus 200, I'm probably not playing it. But I think that those are the two most likely outcomes here. Another thing that does worry me, like, we have never seen Sean O'Malley go the five rounds. We never really seen him like get like rocked real bad. And like, I mean, the yon fight. Other than the Cheeto time when he killed him.

Of course. I'm saying like fight through it. I mean, the yon fight was like, that was gritty as hell. And he got tagged a couple times. Yeah. That was a gritty-ass performance. So like I don't doubt that he can go five rounds at all. I mean, especially at Bantamweight.

the dude is like 29 years old. He's in ridiculous shape. Like I don't really have concerns for his five-round cardio. But we do know Cheeto can go five rounds. So, uh, that's, that's interesting because I don't have concerns about his cardio,

like broadly speaking. I have a lot of concerns about his cardio holding up to the style he wants to fight. Because I mean, we're going to have to be moving a lot. Yeah. He wants to move a ton. And it takes so much. And we even saw in the yon fight that that,

the end of like, by the third round of that fight, they are settling in and just kind of chucking them flat-footed. And I got to tell you, man, that's where I'm coming from on the Cheeto thing. This fight is not going to look good for Cheeto early. He's a slow starter historically. Sean is a very fast starter. In their first fight, Sean was moving, cutting angles, switching the stances. He was given a ton to look at.

And if Sean could do that for 25 minutes, he's going to win, like, easily. I just had a lot. That's a lot to ask for. And as he stops being so mobile, as he starts being in the center, we saw with Pedro Munoz, Pedro Munoz in the first round of the fight with Chito was moving a lot more, cutting more angles. The fight just drags on, it gets slower. And then you are in the pocket with Chito. And brother, that is not a place you want to be.

So I got huge questions on what Sean O'Malley looks like in rounds three, four, and five. Even if he's banked two rounds in the front, like, I just think this fight is awesome. I think this fight is super competitive, really close, and plus 240 is a big price for a dude that I think has close to a 50-50 shot, if not better, to win this fight. Yeah, one other thing I'll say on it is we've talked all about Cheeto's durability. He is, I've built a house. I've built a stone structure built on three pillars of durability this week. pillar number one is Marlon Chito Vera. This is a pacifist parlay.

It's a strong pillar. I'll be taking the over one and a half in this. I mean, never knocked down. Never knocked out. Never been finished. Ten of his last 11 have gone over the one and a half. I don't think Sean's knocking him out. I don't see Cheeto knocking Sean out early.

I like this one to go over the one and a half. Pillar number one of my beautiful stone structure built on three pillars of durability, which I will get into as we move through the program, but is a pacifist parlay that I really do like. So over one and a half is all I have on this. You're betting Cheeto. Any bets on this one for you, Tony? I'm going to go decision.

I'm going to go O'Malley by decision. I know they haven't dropped yet, but I feel like that to me. I'm going to have a lot of stuff in here. Probably going to parlay a lot of stuff too. I think O'Malley wins, and I want to cover myself on the fact that, you know, it's going to be tough against Cheeto,

but I think by decision is his route to victim that we talked about. So I'll probably take O'Malley by decision. Here's actually something I'll throw out to you right now. O'Malley by decision is plus 100. Is that what you said, Jed? Yeah. If I'm not mistaken, you can get fight goes to a decision at like minus 110.

So it kind of feels like you should just cover your bases. Like, I mean, you're really like, I mean, minus 130 on one book, minus 115 on another, minus 110 on another. Yeah, plus 100. Yeah, that just kind of feels like you should. Just take FICO's to a decision at that point. I don't know. I don't know that Vera Beat like finishes him.

But what if, dude? You're talking about 10 cents. Minus 110 and plus 100 and you can add the whole win. Yes, for that price. You're right. You're talking about no difference then. I feel like that's the way you go. That's actually kind of surprising.

When on one book, it is minus 115 and it's plus 100. That is such a minute difference. Anyway, those are our thoughts. On the main event, should be a great one. I mean, can you imagine the scenes? It's just going to be scenes no matter who wins. I can't wait for it. It's going to be fantastic.

And speaking of scenes, let's go to the co-main event, 155, five rounds, Dustin the Diamond Porier, taken on Benoit Saint-Denie. Benoit, St. Denis, your favorite, minus 198, Dustin the Diamond former interim champ Porier plus 164. Your guys' thoughts.

Tony, I'll let you start on one of my most anticipated fights of 2024. I saw Benoit knock Matt Fravola's head into the 17th row at MSG and it was like I knew he was good

and again, Matt Fravolta, not to the level of Dustin, but tough, tough son of a bitch. Like, Matt Fravolta, right? When I saw what Benoit did to him, I was like, damn, wait a second. Like, Benoit is a real, real legit fighter.

And I think stand-up, he's great. I think on the ground he's great. Like, for me, it's going to be really tough. And obviously, you have all the legacy points for Dustin, right? Incredible chin, knockout power. Like, he has all these things going for him. 30 fights in the UFC, like he's an elder statesman now of the promotion. But it just feels like the tide has been turning from legends of the game.

We're in that generational mark now where it feels like the guys that are that next up are kind of taking care of business. We just saw that with Ilya and Volk. To me, that was the moment where everything kind of broke. And everybody who's now that next generation trying to come for the old guys of stuff is here to do it. And I feel like Benoit's just too good. I always want to give Dustin the benefit of the doubt just because of, the, you know, the benefit of the doubt just because of his legacy and who he is. But for me, man, when I look at anything minus 200, right?

Benoit's right there at the line of minus 198. If you lock it in early, it'll probably move a little bit towards Benoit, I feel like, towards, towards Saturday. I think I'm going to take him just straight up. I'm going to swallow the 198 and just take Benoit. I just think he's a force of nature right now. I mean, he is disgusting, dude. I mean, it's like he debuts on short notice up a weight class against Aliski.

Dos Santos, and he lost, but it's almost like he proved, like, to get him out of that octagon, you're going to have to kill him. Like, that fight should have been stopped 20 different times, and, like, Benoit just kept it going. He's like, he's like the French Terminator. Like, he just, like, he came in and he did an interview on the OMA and he's talking about how, like, he wants to bleed. Like, he wants to be tested.

He wanted to be violent. He wanted to get to. to a point where it's like both of our wills are being tested whose will is going to break first. Like this is literally what he said. Like he is definitely a little bit crazy. Like even when you talk to him, he's a nice guy, but you're like, there's violence behind those eyes. That is a scary looking man.

And then you look at him fight, dude. He backs up every word of that. He can knock you out. He can submit you. He just seems like the next dude at lightweight. Like, it just seems hard to go against them. Dustin Porre, on the other hand, I mean, absolute legend of the game. Like, also just, just as a quick note, eight, Fight of the Knights for Dustin Porier,

Benoit Saint-Denie has never won by decision. Like, it just feels like we're primed up for, like, just an absolute war here. Like, big step up for Benoit, too. So, like, we might get a little regression on him getting early finishes. Like, this thing goes three, four rounds. Like, it's just going to be. so awesome. Like, I just don't, like, I feel like we're going to get a bloody war at one point. Dustin Porre is going to waddle, pull the pants up, Enwa's going to stick the tongue out,

be like, let's do it. And they're just going to meet in the center of the octagon. Like, I just have such high expectation for this fight. I just don't even know that they can live up to it. I mean, this is the, this is one A or one B for the front, the preseason fight of the year, you know, votes, right? Like, it's, it's this and it's Gaichi Holloway. Exactly. I mean, That was you took the words out of my mouth. And I mean, when you were talking about BSD, it was just like, yeah, you know who else said all those same things? Justin Gaci, because that's who been Mwantan Dini is.

He's just the next generation of Justin Gachis, the next dude who's coming in. I want to make car crashes. I want to see who's will is stronger than mine. I'm a crazy person. And I don't feel amazing about this because we watch a lot of tape this week. But I'm on Dustin Poyer for exactly that reason. season because I think Benoit Sandini is younger Justin Gaichie right now.

I think he's got time to develop, but we saw Dustin Poirier fight this version of Justin Gaetchi basically. And we saw how it went. It was an insane fight. It was super fun. Gaetchi was winning a lot of it until he was losing it. And the reason he ultimately lost it is because at that time, Gachi did not understand the value of defense and sort of just didn't like it.

and I want son to knee. I got to tell you, man, gets in a lot. Super tough. Like insanely durable, much like Justin Gachey, but he does not have a ton of self-preservation instincts in him. And so I think on the feet, when this part was immediately announced, my first thought was, I can't believe Poye took this. Like, that's an insane move.

What balls? And then I was like, actually, as I think about it, really get him now. Like, get him now because, because, because, because, BSD is going to put his chin out there, and Poyer is going to hit the shoulder roll, get the arms up, find clean counters on the inside. The questions I have are twofold, I guess threefold. The first is is Poye's chin still there? Uh, are you getting knocked out by Gatji last time? The way you got knocked out, I think most people are getting knocked out by that, so that's not really an indicator, but a lot of tread off the tires. I just don't know. If his chin is still, you know, pretty solid,

then I feel great about his chance of standing up. But, BSD wrestles a ton more than I think you think he does. He's a legitimate BJJ practitioner or judo black belt. He's got a lot of grappling to him, and that has always been a weakness of Dustin Porre, even though he's solid, that is a way to make, hey. So if Porre is kind of boxing him up on the feet, can BSD just start getting takedowns?

What does that look like? And then the third and kind of biggest question I have is it really struck me as I rewatch Gaci too. Porre's game hasn't changed in years. Like, he is, he's just been the same fighter. Like, he is not even really adding that many wrinkles anymore. He's just sort of refining what he does. That's a lot of tape.

And Gagie came into that fight with so many plans for what Porre brings to the table. And because there's just a ton of tape on him. And BSD doesn't have the same thing. Has BSD been crunching the tape? Have they made a great game plan? Is Poyer going to do the same old, same old stuff? And is that going to get him caught?

So I love this fight a million times over. I am betting Dustin Porre because I do think he has a clear advantage on the feet. But I don't feel like massively confident. But the last thing I'll say, Porre is 71% success rate when he is the underdog. He's winning at a big clip when he is the underdog. So you're making a lot of money betting on underdog Dustin Porre

and I'm going to try and ride that again with plus 185. I love it. Plus 185. that's a nice that's a nice little number number i'm i'm wondering in bSD like i'm surprised bsd opened at minus 130 i'm i'm surprised i was curious as to how big this number was going to get i thought it would hover around i didn't think he'd get you know close you know minus 200 but people are in and i get it he's fun as hell like he just moved up to minus 205 bsd by the way as we speak they must have heard your your bit they definitely got a stab there they definitely they definitely heard your bit

I took two openers this week. You know, I know it doesn't help the people. I did take BSD when he was sitting at minus 135 on Draft King Sportsbook. I just, I don't know. I just can't like he's, I'm on the hype train. This is like, this is a classic CB bet where I get on the hype train, bet it right when it opens. I'm like, this is my guy.

I'll, uh, I'll support him and then he loses. And then I'm just like, eh, man, I might have caused that one, that might have caused the train to crash. So yeah, I'm riding with Benoit. I like you. I'm not going to be Florida if Dustin Porre pulls this off. I mean, it just feels like it would be the most Dustin Porier thing. Everyone's talking about this being his last fight ever.

Talking about him potentially retiring. He goes out there, finishes Benoit, St. Denis gets on the mic, and he's like, I ain't done yet. I got a few more left end. It wouldn't shock me. And if he goes out there and finishes him like that, I mean, we're talking about Cheeto getting a title shot right now. He goes out there and finishes. It kind of doesn't matter.

He probably is the frontrunner for Islam Makachev, because Gaichi and Max Holler are going to beat seven shades of shit out of each other. No man is coming out of that fight ready to turn around on a month and a half, you know, eight weeks notice to fight him. Same for Oliver and Sarukian at 300. Like, that's just too quick a turnaround to fight in June. The possible contenders for Islammachev are the winner of this fight, if they can make that turnaround and the winner of Matush camera

Hafeld Osangas, which we'll talk about later. And if I love Matush camera, I think he already should have gotten the title fight. But if Poetheye goes out here and dummies up BSD, they're going to let him fight Islam, man. Like, they're just going to do it. That would be crazy. Be honest. Justin Gage would feel a touch lighted if that were to have. He should.

And when I was rewatching the Gaget-Poyer fight, the whole. whole time I was thinking, I can't, like, I don't, I'm not upset about it because the max fight rocks, but catchy looks so damn good in that fight. I want to see him fight Islam. And might not ever happen now. Like, I don't know. We'll come to that later, but we'll come to that next month. Crazy world. M.MA. Unwrap holiday magic at Holt Renfrew with gifts that say I know you. From festive and cozy fashion to Lux Beauty and Fragrant Suts, our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holtz holiday shop and store or online at Holtrenfrew.com.

Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions. Speaking of Crazy World, next fight up, a welterway bout. We get the debuting Michael Venom page taking on Kevin Holland. Right now, Kevin Holland, your slight favorite, minus one. 35 Michael Page plus 114. It's an interesting one, man. This is like, it's kind, it's almost like Kevin Holland like finally meets his match.

Like weird style six foot three at welterweight with like an 80 inch reach. Like normally Kevin Holland has like this massive, you know, reach and height advantage and like he's not going to have it this time. Oh, man. I've been kind of going back and forth on this. one, but something in my gut, something deep in my gut, just tells me that Kevin Holland is going to win this. I just think the level of competition that he's fought, the durability that this man has shown throughout the course of his career, and just his will to get down and scrap, it just feels like Kevin Holland is going to win this fight. I don't know. MVP, 36, almost 37 years old,

Kevin Holland five years his his minor just just feels like Kevin Holland decision 29 28 he catches MVP with like a big shot at some point during the fight

I don't know some of them he says Kevin Holland does something in you say MVP brings up like a high head kick just out of nowhere and smokes Kevin Holland that would be crazy does that factor somewhere in

that would be crazy but I don't know man Kevin Holland like doesn't get smoke He's been finished one time and it was by Wonderboy and like Wonderboy had to like kill him and they were like Kevin, you can't fight anymore man. You can't go back out there, dude. I'm sorry, but it's over.

Like he like, didn't he have like a broken hand and then like his whole face was cut open and like he was still just like. He got massacre. And like the worry is betting on Kevin Holland is that there's a path to victory. There's a way to win the fight and he just doesn't take it. Like the Stephen Wonderboy Thompson.

fight. I bet Kevin Holland and he got takedowns and he was like no, no, we ain't doing this. We ain't doing this. This is, I am so surprised by this one. Really? Really? Yeah. Particularly

repeatedly mentioned the Wonderboy fight and it's just like, that's just what this is. Only it's worse. Because Wonderboy, like there's a clear path to beating Wonderboy. Everyone knows it. He's still right, right, right. It's not like MVP is a better defensive wrestlers of the wonder boy watch logan storely who's an accomplished collegiate wrestler

struggled so much with a fight against him and and we're talking about a dude who can match the physical tools he has like i won't be stunned if kevin hollens this out just because mvp is getting older but i think that this is perfect matchmaking to come hey here's this guy who's built some popularity up like michael chandler we're going to slot him in we're going to give him a super winnable fight he's going to win it and then who the hell knows UFC's going to England maybe it's Leon versus MVP

and they just do that in like we know for a fact that they don't want below Muhammad to fight for the Walterway belt they have said it a million times he comes in here he gets a win over a style that Kevin Holland just lost to like just lost to it I don't think MVP's going to knock him out and you know do the

poker ball throw at him or whatever but I think that this is I don't think Kevin Holland can get the takedowns. And we've seen MVP get outstruck once in MMA. I mean, BKFC's different story. But in MMA, the only time he's really been beaten, because I thought he beat Logan Storley, with Diego Lima.

And that fights a fight. He was winning until he was super lost it. Kevin Holland, I don't think is going to do the same. You could probably tell I'm on MVP, plus 115. I like the bet. I think that this is the exact sort of matchmaking that the UFC is transparently trying to get in a good spot with. And I think they're going to do it. Is there anything to be said that Kevin Holland is just kind of like a big game fighter, right?

In those moments, like last year in Miami when he fought Ponsonibio, he was absolutely lighting Ponziabio up. And it just feels like when the lights are on, Kevin Holland decides, you know what? let me get a little extra juice here i know the boys are watching back home there's something to him i i want to take the dog i want to take MVP i want to take his debut i love his fight style of the way that he mixes and kicks and weird angles but i'm i'm super torn on this i'm super torn on this because it feels like i didn't think about miami maybe he's just at home in in miami i don't know i don't know but i am with i am with you though tony like i did go back and forth on this a couple of times, but it's just, it's just something in my gut.

Almost like, yeah, it feels like the bright light's going to turn on for Kevin Holland. I almost feel like Kevin Holland's going to be like, you know, trust the gut. I'm not letting no fucking Bellator motherfucker. Come over here and beat me. Exactly. I'm not doing that. I feel like, I feel like if there's ever been a question of his motivation, I feel like he's going to come into this fight motivated to try to be winning.

Now, I'm saying all this and then we could come out there and like we could just see one of those performance where it's just like, dude, what was he doing, man? He was down 20 to 18 clearly on all three scorecards, and he started talking shit to him for the last four minutes. I think it's bold of you to assume that Kevin Holland wouldn't have been talking shit for the 10 minutes before that. Yeah. If I could bet one thing, it would be the over under on the first time,

kind of like the mics catch Kevin Holland saying something because I would bet the under. Like, I don't even, whatever the number is, I'll take it. It's a really interesting fight, man. It's a really interesting fight. All of the main card fights are super interesting, which you can probably tell because I've taken three underdogs. I mean, if MVP knocks him out, who will be...

If MVP knocks him out, he's fighting Leon Edwards in England for the strike. I don't know. I don't know. They hate Palau. They don't care about Palau. I know, but I don't know. There's got to be somebody else.

He's got to be MVP. He's right. There's a one win. Michael Chandler. Michael Chandler got it off of the Dan Hooker. Friggin' Dan Hooker. How was MVP ever a champ in in belator interim maybe did he did he fight no because the interim was for one in one point

the interim was the storeley fight which he lost he should have won but he lost it Michael Chandler was a long reigning champ in Belator and then came over here and like I know he got it off the Dan Hooker and then he came over and had lost and he got it off the Dan Hooker like I think I think there you said no because I think you go MVP went I wonder if the Belal thing they were scared of, they were scared of the 300. They didn't want to put Belaw Muhammad in the main event of 300. I wonder if MVP wins.

He gets a top tier matchup. I mean, MVP and Gary in the co-main event. I mean, what do you do? God, please don't book that. That fight would be horrific. You could build a sick card in England. I mean, you could do Tom Aspinall in the main. You could do Leon Belaw in the co-main.

Tom's already booked. We'll get to that in a little bit. Oh, breaking news. I mean, Tom is going to be fighting Giorzino Rosenstrike at UFC 301 if Giorzino beats Curtis Blades. No, no, Jailton, Almeida. That's what I mean. Sorry, I don't know why I said Giorzino. Jailton, Almeida, yeah.

I like that. I like that call from you. Maybe your boy comes back. Aldo return? I mean, that would be terrific, but I don't think so. I think he's out of the game. All right, so I'm on Holland. Mr. Jett is on MVP.

Tony, are you chilling on me? this one? I'm, I'm, no, you got to choose a side. Got to choose a side. Don't be it. Tony. No, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm, uh, I say that. I'm going to take Kevin Holland. I'm going to take Kevin Holland. All right. All right, big mouth it is for two of us. MVP for Mr. Jed. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, Gilbert Burns taking on Jack Della, Madelena. You guys can see it. The audience can't see it. I got one of my JDM shirts on. I've got several. I'll be wearing another one tomorrow. I can tell you that much.

Right now, JDM, minus 162, Gilbert Burns plus 136. Another line that has just gotten steamed into oblivion. JDM opened as a fairly big underdog, but people seem to think that he's going to win. And I'm biased, and I think he's going to win too. Let's just say he's going to stuff the takedowns, turns into a striking match, and he just boxes up, Doreno from there. I mean, Doreno coming off an injury. I know he's had plenty of time to recover.

37 years old. I'm taking JDM. I'm taking JDM. Shocking. These will Hafezby, Dan. Shocking. Who could I ever seen you taking Jack Della? I mean, I got another one of my favorites that got better out as well.

If you don't have Giacomo and Almeida parlayed, I'm just disappointed in you as man. Wow. Just singles, just singles, but I'm going fairly heavy on both of them. I mean, you're not going to parlay up your two boys when they're fighting on the same card. That is, I mean, I can't believe that. I want to say that they've fought on the same card on several occasions. I bet you parlayed him up previously. What do we think?

Derrino, hometown boy gets it done? I, this was a really weird fight for me because I, I have a long history with Gilbert Burns of underestimating him to my peril. And I'm a little gun-shy about it because I think, like when I first learned, I was like, I don't know, Gilbert Burns is a really good shot of, like, upset in the Applecart. Jadiam's not had his best performances the last two times out.

Basil Hafez, obviously, that's short notice, but that fight was very concerning. And then Kevin Hollins, tough fight. Good fight, won the fight. But you can see him as he is climbing the ladder a little bit more. He's starting to stumble a little more. He's not running over people in the same manner that he was previously. And Gilbert Burns has been a dude who's tough to run over. I mean, just ask Hamzot.

That being said, I would, under any other circumstances, feel real good about a JDM by decision bed at plus 350 because $350. Plus 350 is a big price number for decision. Gilbert Burns is very durable. JDM is getting more, you know, it was back-to-back decisions as the last two fights.

And I think the texture of this fight looks like Gilbert Burns can box and got fast hands, but he's getting a little older, getting slower. Jack, you know, sticks on the outside, stuff to take downs, you know, outbox them, but can't find a finish.

I am so gun-shy about betting against Gilbert Burns because for years I have been like, he's not that good. Like, I don't know what to tell you guys. It's not that good. He's fine. But we're talking about a dude who was like an okay lightweight, but also he got dummied up by Dan Hooker, and then he comes to Welterweight,

and he's just beating a bunch of bad old dudes at Walterweight. But he keeps doing it, and I keep looking like a jackass. And so the prospect of betting against him will make me feel real stupid if he just comes out there and is like, hey, Jack, time to learn a lesson, son and takes him down three times and sits on him for 15 minutes. So I'm torn. I don't have any action down. I have.

I put in Jack by decision. I pulled it out. I haven't hit the inner. I can't figure it out. Tony, I knew where Connor was going to be, but I want Tony to get me over the line or not because, Connor, you can't be trusted.

You're biased here. What's today's day? Happy 305 day, by the way, boys. I mean, you got to celebrate. I didn't even plan this, but it's perfect for us to be doing this on 305. I mean, it's as good as it gets. Well, Tony gives his spiel in this fight. I'm going to be pulling up my JDM bet slip.

And I'm going to tell you when I place the bet. I've been sitting on a JDM bet for months. Of course. Your thoughts, Tony. When I look at Drafking Sportsbook and I see that JDM is a minus 162 favorite, yet 61% of the bets are going on dog Gilbert Burns. Makes me a little worried. Makes me a little worried because I want to take Gilbert Burns.

For some reason or another, I love Gilbert Burns and I love watching him fight. I was at the Miami, obviously Miami last year when he beat Mazadol. I was at the Sahudo Aljo fight in Jersey, sat cage side when he fought Balaw. And Balal fucked him up. Like, I remember he, Doudini walked in front of me, shoulder sling, limp, his leg was absolutely, like, destroyed from those lower leg kicks at Bala. By the way, if you haven't seen Bala Muhammad in person, I know the UFC hates him. I know everybody doesn't want him to get a, a welterweight title shot. If you see Balaal in person, his lower half, he is tree trunk for legs.

He is huge. I was like, Jesus Christ. I love how much shit Belaw gets because, like, he would just absolutely fuck all these people that talk shit about him up. Like, they would, he would just, unless you are a top three welterweight in the world, you have nothing to offer below Muhammad. Literally. Unless you're Shavkat, Rakmanov, it does not matter.

He is a, he's also jacked out of his mind. Like, not only does he have tree trunks, he's absolutely jacked. He's huge. So when I saw that, it was weird, too, because. We saw Gilbert fight Neil Magny in January. Then quick turnaround fought George. George barely touched him. Like he was fine to fight again.

And then, and then Balal just destroyed him. But it was like three quick fights where he basically took like five weeks off the entire first half of that year. And obviously with the injuries and all the things that happened, we haven't seen him in a while. So it feels to me like can we see the, the Durino Burns that we saw against Neil Magny,

against George, who look good on his feet, who has a take down ability. J.D.M, again, kind of like a question mark, right? Like, I want, I want to bet Gilbert, but I'm worried that I'm going to take a Mark suckers bet with the rest of the public and then throw money away when J.D.M. takes care of business. You said all these people are on Gilbert Doreenio Burns. 61% of draft kings betters right now are on.

Where do you find that info? That's terrific. You know, I got it on the iPad. I got on the iPad. DK partner, I mean, DK partner. That's some good stuff right there. Just a reminder. J.D.M. opened as an underdog.

I bet him on December 18th, 2023 at plus 130. So his number has dropped drastically since then, despite the bets coming in on Gilbert Burns. I also bet Jelton Al-Made a minus 111 on December 18th as well. I did go back and bet more on Joltenham. made it once he got to plus money just uh just FYI but uh yeah so I've had a I've been sitting on my two boys for about two and a half months now it'll be it'll be it'll be real great

if you should parlay them together if neither well now I can't parlay them together I've got too much exposure to them keep going too much exposure would a would a JDM now yeah it would definitely be bigger than plus 130 at this point but irregardless I'm going with JDM you're thinking about JDM by decision I'm gonna do it it's only thinking about talking himself into a Gilbert Therino Burns bet. I am. Just for 305. I just,

I have to do it. I'm going to take, I was going to say, you got to do it on 305. Yeah. Don't bet it tomorrow. Then it's a waste of a bet. No, no.

It's today. I think I'm going to punch him to buy decision bet because if I'm wrong, then I'll just feel stupid. But I feel stupid all the time. And if I'm right, then I'll finally have been correct in betting against Trino. Bingo. All right.

Let's go to the last fight on the main card, Peleonon, taking on Song Yadong and right now just about a coin flip Piotrion minus 115 Song Yidong minus 105 this fight is amazing this fight is amazing

I feel I feel like they should sign a contract before they go in that no one can go for takedowns let's just box it up boys let's just do some striking because these are two of the best boxers in not just the Bannonweight Division but but all of the UFC and they're both tough they're both so tough like I just

Just imagine that this one is going to be a war. And then you go to the stakes. Song Yudong can catapult himself in the top five of the Bannamoy Division. Piotr Yan is trying to avoid four straight losses and essentially never seeing the potential the title shot again. Career is over if he loses this fight. Everything is on the line. Sick fight.

High stakes. Start of the main card. Rock is crowd. Like, it's everything you ask for. I don't know what's going to happen. My pick is Piotr Yon. I'm not sitting on the fence. My pick is Piotr-Yon, very close fight,

a little bit tough to trust him coming off of a three-fight losing street. But on the flip side of that, the three-fight losing streak is to the champion at the time, Al Jemaine Sterling, the current champion, Sean O'Malley, and the bona fide number one contender in Rob the Vallechevili. The future champion. The future champion. Past present and future belt holders is the three-fight losing streak for Piotr-Oen. Like, it is nothing to scoff about.

I know he got dominated against. Marab, but I just feel like looking back, that was a bad stylistic matchup for him. I think the Song Yadong one is much more beneficial for him from a stylistic standpoint. But I just don't think I'm confident enough on this, this read on this pick to place a wager on it in a fight that I know I'm going to love. And in a guy he's going against in Song Yadong that I find myself partial to. I like Song Yadong. I very much appreciate his personality. And I don't remember. really want to root against them. So love this fight. Pick his Piotr-Yon. No bet in terms of that. I'll get to my parley piece in a second.

I want to hear what Tony has to say on this one. I'm, I'm, I'm, I want to ask you guys a question and think when that illegal knee came from Piotr-Yon. It altered the universe forever. It altered his entire life. Because he, he would have been champ for who knows how much longer. and that happens. And I just want to say and everything changed. I went back and rewatch that a couple times this week. It's just wild that he did that.

Algeman Sterling is so clearly grounded. And if he couldn't even see it, the ref calls out like, grounded, grounded opponent, and then he just blocks off the name. And he had been grounded the whole time. Like I, this is the thing that we'll never be able to prove I said at the time, and I still, I've never backed down this. I think that that DQ is entirely justified to me because even by the like, that's how I would want it ruled.

But even by the standards that are currently applied to MMA, the only reasonable explanation for what happens if you watch that is that he is, Peoria is standing over him. He is firing uppercuts into Aljo's arms with the left hand like on his head and just trying to hit him with. the uppercuts. Aljo is catching them all in the arms, but staying on his knees. And Peter just gets pissed off that Aljo won't stand up and fight him. And so he knees him. Like, it is the only thing that makes sense because it is so clearly, I know he's down because I'm trying these uppercuts. Man, quit being a child, stand up and just knees him. Like, it is ridiculous. Yeah, it's, I had not watched that in a while

and like it's been you know three years or whatever since it happened at this point going back and watching it is like it's like a bit shocking just how dumb of a move it was by Peter John the single dumbest move in the history of MMA and it just fucked his career not only that he does that to Aljo

Aljo has to get a fake disc in his neck gets his neck fused comes back and then tosses It's like you would be ready for that fight, wouldn't you? But like, you fucked up. You'd figure, all right, this, I was destroying this guy the first fight. Let me take care of business the second time legally. And then he does what he does.

And then that's it. And everything else just kind of falls apart for him. And I mean, honestly, if you take it from Aljo's standpoint, it's just like, that fight ends up finishing those five rounds. Aljo's never touching that belt, dude. Never. Never. It's crazy.

It is such a major sliding door's moment. forever. It's just, all that being said, I'm going over on rounds two and a half. Okay. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love it. What's the, what's the number? I think it's a great bet. It's a little high. It's minus two. It's like minus two. It's like minus two. Two 80. Okay. That's a little parlay piece that's a great thing. Both these is durable as hell. This is my, this is that the structure I'm building. Ooh, the durability pillar number two comes in the form of one, Piotr-Yon, uh, never been finished. 11 straight over one and a half 16 of his last 17 this guy is just he is a friend of the CB

special one and a half songy dog seven of his last nine over one and a half great scrap don't think either of these guys get finished so i feel good in the over one and a half that is like two of the pacifist parley i like it um kind of let me get you over the line here because i mean we had to bring it back, baby. This is, it's a evenly lined fight, and I like you, it was like, I don't know, a lot of ways this fight could go. Let's, let's throw it

to the AI overlords. Let's let the machines settle. Here's our chat GPT, better of the week, boys and girls. Let's go. Chat GPT is doing great. We're at like a 74% success rate since I've initiated this. It is... Hard-ass computer. I am truly not sure why I

bet at all, and I don't just send everything through chat GPT. Given that I have had one winning week in 2024. But it's great. I could give you the full dramatic read, but we'll just do the ending of the fight, as it were. As the final round commence, both fighters dug deep,

summoning every ounce of strength and determination they possessed. Jan searched forward with calculated aggression, unleashing a relentless onslaught of strikes, while song centered with lightning, or countered with lightning fast combinations refusing to back down. In the closing moments, Jan seized an opportunity,

landing a thunderous head kick that sends song crashing to the canvas with precision and poise. Jan followed up with a series of ground strikes forcing the referee to intervene. So that's right, ladies and gentlemen, I am taking Piotr Yan straight at minus 115. It was the price I got him at.

And I also threw a little quarter unit sprinkle on Jan round three, KO at plus 1600. Wow. Yeah, I had a feeling that was going to be a big number. I mean, I love it from the computer. I honestly, I love either outcome in this fight. I would love like a classic just like, Peodor Yan just puts on this just technical masterclass.

And it's like, oh shit, Jan is back. And like Jan is a contender again at 135. And I'm cool with Song Yodong winning. And it's just like, this guy is legitimately top five material in 135 now. I think he's got star power. I think he does have some star power. He's got swag, dude. He knows out of dress.

He's got the Chinese. He's got the Chinese market behind him. So I'm cool with either outcome. I'm just really, I'm really looking forward to this fight. I'd be okay with the song, except for the downside is that it does doom Piotrion, which is tough. Yes, which is, which is just like, just like two and a half years ago, it was just like. Everyone was like, he's going to hold the bell forever. I was going to say, like, it wasn't like, it wasn't like, it wasn't like, it wasn't like,

opinion. It was like fact-based. He's like the greatest one 35er to ever get into the octagon and he's never going to lose the belt for all of eternity. Everyone was so high on him that literally within an hour, less than an hour, honestly, he's like 30 minutes of Henry Suhudo retiring and vacating the belt in the cage. Dana comes to the post-fight presser and is like, he doesn't do what he did with Habibri. He's like, he's not retired. Trust me, we're going to figure out. He's like, yeah, so Henry's gone on in two months. we're going to have Peoria Yon fight somebody for the vacant belt.

He was just immediately, Henry's out of here. I don't give a shit. Piotrion's the next dude. I mean, there was a lot of strong arguments for pound for pound, number one, going into that second aljo fight. I mean, it was, it was great.

I also just want to add this because in doing my ridiculous research for this stuff, I did come across a gimmick bet that I can't take for obvious reasons. But Piotrion, I mean, Sorry, Song Ya Dong and Cheeto Vera. Share a birthday, December 2nd, big day in fight sports. So if you're feeling fraudy, you get a couple. That's a ridiculous gimmick, but it's very ridiculous, but you get a couple of underdogs, you know, sharing a birthday, the December 2nd Parlay, just throwing it out there.

December 2nd Cheeto Dong Parle. It pays out plus 505 if you're feeling frisky. I'm not on it because I am on Peoria on because of the robots, just wanted to put that out there for those inclined. I love it. All right. Main card, absolute delight. Just a treat for us fans.

Five fights. Fantastic fights. Got a lot of fights to go. So that's why we're going to crank this speed up as we're almost at an hour. Let's go to the featured prelim of the night. Curtis Blades taking on Jelton Almeida. Right now, Curtis Blades. Your favorite, minus 115?

Jelton Almeida minus 105. I already ruined it earlier in the pod. So Jelton Almeida, minus 110. back in December. As if he could listen to his pod didn't know. Yep. And took him again at plus 110 this week. Yeah, I guess I'm supposed to just give up on Jailton Almeida because he 50-40 Ford, number

10, Derek Lewis. I mean, I'm just, yeah, I guess I'm supposed to just get off the hype train now because it was a boring fight. Yeah, I understand it wasn't the most exciting one. He just needed to show his wrestling chops. He needed to prove to you that he could go to five rounds, all right? Let's not act like 19. wins before that didn't all come by way of first or second round victory. He had to prove he

could go the five rounds. So that's what he did. He went to five rounds of 50-44 Derek Lewis. How'd Curtis Blades do against Derek Lewis? He did not win. Didn't 50, 40, 40-for them. Now you're giving me Jeltenhammeda plus money. He was on the way to doing that before he got knocked out by a big old lunchbox. Mm-hmm. So in all reality, like, no one shoots takedowns on Curtis Blade. His takedown offense is shockingly low statistically. It's 33% because he's had six takedowns attempted on him in 16 UFC fights and four of them were successful.

And like three of them were in his like first fight or something insane. Hey, it was like forever ago. Yeah, three landed in the first fight. He's been taken down like one time in the last like eight years and I think it was Volkov. It could be east took him down three. three times. It was his second fight because he debuted against Ngano. That's right. Yeah, I think Jelton Almeida is going to go for him. Curze Blade said yesterday on the M.M.A. hour and he's kind of proved it in his last several fights. Dude's committed to the

hands. He's got wrestling acumen. He's committed to the hands. He wants to show you that he's got him. And, you know, he does. He does have knockout power. And he likely has better striking than Jelton Almeida. I don't doubt that. But yeah, his chin, not fantastic. I know it's usually power punchers, but I think Jelton Almeda, you know, it's, it's the Bugs Bunny pistol. Time to get back to the old meme. Time to start finishing people again. Let's go ahead and dump them down. A little lunchboxed ground and pound, open up the choke, rear naked first round. That's what I'm going with. Jailton Almeida. Money line. Hit it twice. I'm also on the under one and a half, under two and a half, minus 165. Minus 165 on the under two and a half in a jailton al-Meda fight where

20 of his 22 fights have gone under the two and a half. Blades, eight of his last 11 under the two and a half. Do we really think that Jelton Almeida has just become this lay and prey merchant? I don't think so. I think someone's getting served. And I think it's going to be Curtis Blais. Jelton Almeida, Bochum UFC 301 against Tommy Aspinall. And then my heart will just be pulled in two.

I won't be able to watch. I'll be nauseous beforehand. I'll be sick. I won't be able to, I, you can't make me choose between the two. Tony, are you backing this man? CB, can I get you to do. under one and a half at plus 120. Thought about it.

I thought about it, but I said you're going to give me two and a half at minus 165. But you should do that. That's better. I just feel like, I mean, we're talking about Jelteno

made a 20 of his 22 under the two and a half. Blaze 8 of his last 11. This is a heavyweight fight. 63% of the betters agree with you. 63 on Jalton. I think I'm going to take, I'm going to take the rounds.

That's to me what I'm going to do, probably. I'm seeing a lot of people on Curtis Blades. I've seen a couple people tweet the infamous lock. Lock of the week. Curtis Blades, Big Curtis Blade. Let me say two things. One, glad to know that this isn't the lock of the millennium.

That's still to come if you're listening. I can't wait. I'm salivating for the lock of the millennium. And you're seeing another person right here taking Curtis Blades because Yeah, it's the least shocking thing. You sold me that Curtis Blades is the greatest heavyweight in the world, like 12 different times. I bet Curtis Blades to be the heavyweight champion in my future bet last year. That did not work out.

Better against Babelovich. But this is everything you said. I just want to take all those words and say them and then just add on to the end of it of. Curtis Blades is great wrestling. He's not going to get taken down. Curris Blades is a better striker. Jelton Almeida is not Derek Lewis.

He's not one of these dudes who's going to hit him. I do. He's better than Derek Lewis. He's better, but he's not going to punch, you know, Curris Blades in the face. And that's what Carter is struggling. with getting punched in the face. There is a world, because I even looked at a hedge possibility for Almeida by

K.O. at plus 550, just because, like, he's big dude. He's athletic. If he lands one, Derek Luz, not the greatest chin at heavyweight, which is tough. But I think that he is probably the better striker. And if Jailton just gets takedown stuffed, which I think is likely to happen, at least for a good portion of this, fight gets real tight, real interesting. and Curtis Blades, I can't quit you, taking him. And of course, Connor, you said the most important thing of all.

This is a heavyweight fight. Heavyweight over is a back baby. Last week, I didn't get a heavyweight over because Jarzino is, you know, an enemy of heavyweight over nation, and I regretted it. I sat there and I watched that fight going to the fourth. And I was like, I can't believe, I can't believe I didn't stick to my guns. Jelton Almeida is an enemy of heavyweight over nation as well. He is a massive, I was going to say, is Jilton Almeida not an enemy of the state?

I mean, he has one thinker. But Curtis Blades is probably like, he's in the cabinet. He's on the board of directors for heavyweight overs, the company. And I'm going, it's over one and a half, minus 150. I'm taking that. So I'm on both of those. And I might just throw a little spring on Almeida by KO at plus 550 just as a hedge to what's going on here. Plus 550 is a lot.

I was thinking maybe. The old Zig when they zag and maybe like an Almeida, if I could find like Fandul sometimes has it, like an Almeida, K-O round one or two at like plus 1,500. I mean, that sounded nice and spicy to me. Because the other part of it too, you know, CAO doesn't just mean on the feet.

He could just do the Jailton Al-Mada, get him out and punch him out. 100% he could. I mean, he's done it several times in the UFC already. It's just like, oh, the choke isn't really there. Let's just play you like. Junior round one, KO, I'm seeing plus 1,200 right now. Round 1, K.

All right, so let's give me round one or two. Round two plus 2,000. So I don't know around one or two. I don't have those up yet. All right. I mean, I got to dig a little bit deeper to see if I can find something on that. But that might be something that I had. I love the zig when others, when others, Zach.

I'm seeing a lot of people saying submission. Boating for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo. Great idea. Feel the fun with all the latest slots in live casino games and with no wagering requirements. What you win is yours to keep groovy.

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Our buyers have got you covered. Marshals. We get the deals. You gift the good stuff. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Caitlin Cermanara Chukagin, recently married since her last fight going up against Macy Barber.

Right now, Macy Barber, your favorite, minus 205. Cermanera Chukagian plus 170. I got nothing on this fight. I mean, Chuk just took 17 months off. She's almost 35. She's getting a young, like, brawler in there. I feel like Macy Barber wins, but I don't really want to play the minus 200 with the quality of this card. I think this is a very smart stayaway, and I haven't decided if I'm joining you

in picking his side. My notes here are, what's this going to do to Chukagian now that she's Cermanara? You know, it used to be death taxes, Chukagian by decision. By decision, yeah. I don't know. Is that in play? I'm going to assume that at least the over part of this is still in play, because you know my policy, Connor, I've stated it many times.

We're taking overs. Women can't finish fights. We're taking overs on women's fights in 2024. Just based on the math of how that worked in 2023, over 50% of this fights went the cards. Macy Barber, of the past 10 fights combined, Barbara and Chukagian Serminara slash seminar, nine of them gone to the cards. I'm taking the over, over two and a half here.

It's minus 350. Got that parlayed with another leg. You'll hear about that later. And I might want to take Barber here. It's a big price, but she's probably going to win. And this is a very dumb reason. but have you guys seen the the German tongue twister song on TikTok that has made the rounds? Well, we'll dive into this because I can't explain it well, but it's a German dude singing a tongue twister about Barbara.

And so the like the noise barber comes out like a billion times and it's stuck in my head. And it seems like a better sign. It's a sign. It kind of did. I looked at, I was like, maybe I'm supposed to here. And so I might just do it just because who cares? I've so many bets down. What's one more, you know?

Exactly. You cowards, choose a side. Give me the future. Give me Macy Barber. Come on. What are we doing? I love it. Macy Barber is the pick, but I will not be betting on her come Saturday evening.

Let's keep it rolling to the next fight. Bandom wave bout, Pedro Munoz, taking on Kyler Phillips. And right now, Kyler Phillips, your favorite, minus 2.30. eight Munoz coming back a plus 195. I got a bet here. I got two beds. First one, Pedro Munoz plus three and a half points. If you don't know what that means,

you add up the three judges of scorecards at the end. Essentially, he just needs to steal a round. And I feel confident in his ability to do that. I do feel like this line is a touch disrespectful to Pedro Munoz. I mean, he has fought some of the best guys in there, and he has an ability to keep it close. He also has an ability to win as an underdog. Just go back and watch that Chris Gutierrez fight.

He is incredibly durable. He has great cardio. He stays in your face where Kyler Phillips tend to slow. I could see Pedro Munoz winning this first or third round fairly handily. I could see him winning the fight outright. I mean, if you go back and watch the O'Malley fight, he won that first round as well. So I think the line's a bit disrespectful. Minus 155 for the plus three and a half points.

Just need him to steal a round. I trust his durability. He is the third pillar of durability in this one. 28 pro fights, never been finished. Eight straight over one and a halfs. 12 of his 18 UFC fights have gone to a decision. Don't think he's getting finished here. I think he gets around over one and a half and plus three and a half points.

We're finally somewhat on the same side as something because I'm taking Pedro Munoz an underdog. A lot of dogs for Jed here. All the dogs. Which is why I was like, oh, I have my first winning week. what if I just bet all underdogs and just light all my money on fire? What can go wrong? It means I don't have to hit as many of them to be successful,

but I need some dubs for some of these in Miami. But yeah, I just think this line, like you said, a little disrespectful. Kyler Phillips is a dude who has impressed in flashes, but also been a little inactive and hasn't quite made the leap where Pedro Munoz been doing that. If this is the leap for Kylea Phillips, great. Like, fantastic for him. He does have a win over Songy Dong, obviously.

But I think Pedro's still got some juice. He's going to come out. He's going to kick the legs. He's going to put the volume on. Super durable. Kylo Phillips is going to fade a little. And plus 200 feels like he's got a shot there. What say you?

I'm not on this one. As I called you guys cowards for the fight before, I'm not on this one. But Munoz feels to me like getting plus juice there. Like that feels like the right play. All right, let's keep it rolling. Next up, we're running out of fights here, and that lock still has not been dropped. I am highly anticipating this one.

I am waiting. Let's go. Next fight, Michelle Pereira taking on Michael Oleg Seychuk at middleweight, and Michel Pereira is your favorite minus 148, Oleg Sechuk plus 124. I'll keep a brief. I'm liking middleweight, Michelle. Six-fight win streak. I know just recently in the move to middleweight.

This fight is amazing. I mean, Michael always, Oleg Seychek always comes to fight. But I do feel his route to victory is, like, heavily dependent on getting the knockout. He swings for the absolute fences. Michel's got nice movement, tough as nails. He can also mix and takedowns, which I like. I'm taking him here to get a dub, another dub here at Middleweight. That has pushed me over the edge.

I knew that, I thought that you might be here. DeMolador has been one of my. favorite fighters pre-UFC he was an insane person doing backflips and all the capoeira stuff came into the u.s. I mean, it just feels fitting for Michelle Pereira to be fighting in Miami. It does. And now that he's up in middleweight, he doesn't have to worry about the gas tank as much anymore.

He can go back to being a crazy person. This is low-key, the best fight, like, on this card. Like, it's not as good as the other fights, but it's going to be insane because Pahedah can be insane. And Olox-Sachic. Oleg Seych is insane. He's a crazy person. He is going to fight crazy, and Pahedah will be happy to oblige him.

This fight rocks. I was on the fence just because Oleg Sechuk is a crazy person. But if you're in, I'm in Pahedah, I got to back my boy. Let's go. Let's do. Michelle. What do you think, Tony? Over one and a half rounds I'm getting on Draft King.

So that's probably what I'll slam there. Yeah. Yeah, I don't mind that. I don't mind that. I mean, I could see this one going one. long. I feel like Oleg Seych is going to be the one doing the knocking out if we do that. Let's move on to a light, heavyweight belt. Did you skip a fight?

Did I? There's a lightweight fight that I feel like Matush Gamron, RDA? I don't know where you're lying. I scrolled right through. A quick, quick pass on it. I just didn't know if it was in your ordered or not. No, no, I scrolled right through because my breakdown is so short. But it is Matej Gamron taking on RDA right now.

Matej Gamron, minus 470. RDA plus 360. I part laid up Mateus Gamrod when he was in the 300s. I just feel like his game plan. The game plan was put out there by Luque last time out. Like get takedowns, mix them in, and just kind of work them over the five rounds. I mean, RDA is getting old. He is four and six in his last 10.

And in those six losses, he has gotten taken down 36 times. Damn. I wonder what Gamrod's going to try and do here. Feels like the game plan is there. 33 years old RDA is almost 40. I think Gamrock gets it done likely by a 30-27 decision. Tony, is this the lock? No, this is not the lock.

I am so much. This wants to be my lock. Like, this is of all the bets I feel good about this week, and I feel good about a bunch of them. Gamrock decision minus 145. Like, he's going to take him down a billion times. he's not going to finish him because he doesn't finish people all that much in general. If he does, it's by submission.

RDA is extremely durable, great grapple. Like, we all know what this fight looks like before it even happens. And the price is reasonable. Minus 145 Garemopi decision. If I had a lock of the millennium, I do not. That would be my lock of the millennium. Yeah, it's not a bad look. It's not a bad look, man.

I might, I don't know. I already got him fairly heavily in a parlay, so I might just rock without it, but I like that. I like that by decision. Don't take him, like, if you're parlaying him up, but don't take him at minus 475. Like that would just be just by decision. He's clearly going to win a decision. You're taking a lot of juice out of that.

Back to the light, heavyweight out, Felipe Lenz, Ion Kutalaba. Right now, Kutalaba minus 135, Lens plus 114. Hard to really trust either of these guys feel like, I feel like it's a Kudalaba fight. So Kudalaba is probably going to finish Felipe Lenz or Felipe Lins is going to finish on Kutalaba and I just don't know what's going to happen. So I'm just staying away from it. You're a smarter man than I am.

Tell me what you're doing here. I'm just going with the Incutalaba. Felipe Lins is not good. He's decidedly not a good fighter. He has dropped down to light heavyweight and the last. I don't know if you guys know, it's the last heavyweight who dropped down to 205 that Ian Kutalaba fought. Man by the name of Tanner Bosa, or Bozer, and he absolutely annihilated him.

Filippa Lins also fought Mr. Tanner Bozer and himself was annihilated. It's M.M.A. math is largely dumb, but in this, it can be instructive that Yon Kutalaba is better than formerly fat, now much more svelt, but still not very good, Felipe Lins. So taking Eukutalaba minus 120. Anything for you, Tony? Nothing. I'm off this one. I'm waiting for the lock of the millennium.

We only have three fights to go. I have a feeling where you're going to go. Let's see if you go that way. Next up, heavyweight bout. Robillis, the Spain, taking on Josh, Parisian. And right now, the Spain. Your favorite minus 345, Josh Parisian, plus 250. We see the Cuban flag waving.

What's lock of the Millennium? Roelvelis de Spain, the big boy. Okay? I need you to go over and watch some of his fights. The last three fights for the big boy. I watched all of them. The last three fights for the big boy. 20 seconds.

20 seconds. Type one though champion. Leg kicks from all over the place. Here's what I want to know. I went back and I, this is the tape study that I did. I went back and watched the bronze medal match at the 2012 Olympic Games. That's commitment.

Anybody watch it? One of the best fights I've ever seen. I did not. Just a quick stoppage. It was incredible. All right, cool. I just wanted to see if you guys were going to like play me. I'm going to watch it now.

Now that you... I was going to be like, oh yeah, I watched it. Oh, how good was that? And I'm going to be like, yeah, yeah, you lie and MF her. The opponent did not show up. Despain just had to walk out there and he won by withdrawal. So that's... I mean, that's how he got the bronze medal.

He was too sure. Yeah, yeah, yeah. He didn't want that. He got the bronze medal. Um, so I'm rocking with the Spain in a parley, and I'm rocking the under two and a half as well in a parley. Oh. Anyway, his opponent could not compete.

Okay. I've, I've Googled this up. Dabo Modibo Keita, who was representing Mali, was unable to compete. Uh, and thus, Robles wins. Robles, shut out. That's how he got the bronze medal. I did actually watch some of his Taekwondo bouts, and, like, I mean, he lost, like, a gold medal match by, like,

a buzzer-beater. It felt like for Taekwondo standards. Yeah, I mean, I'm on him. I mean, I don't care what you say. 19 seconds of tape. We don't really know anything. He hasn't fought anybody. I don't care.

I don't know how to get that across to anyone. He is a 6-7-87-inch-inch-reach. Cubano coming in there to take heads. I mean, I'm on the hype train. I don't care if he gets fraud checked. I don't care if I lose my money. When he does starch Josh Parisian in the very first round, I'll be going crazy because I'm on him.

The question is, how can we get the price down? Because round one knockout is still like minus 170. I'm telling you, the gig is up. Like everybody knows, everybody's seen Roelis. And they're like, oh, okay, this guy just throws cinder blocks at people in the middle of the ring. Excellent. Okay. and then he could kick your head off into the 14.

I was going to say he snaps these kicks, dude. Like, nobody's business, dude. He looks incredible. Again, he's fought eight tomato cans, not the point. The point is in Miami. So I'm clear. Every person he fought in MMA had a zero zero record.

Exactly. That's what they're trying to tell me. That's what the man is trying to push on us. That's what the haters want you to think, okay? The haters want you to think hasn't fought in anybody, doesn't know what he's doing, just a big guy. No, I'm here to tell you future. of the heavyweight division outside of a lot of other guys.

This guy right here, Ruelis, Spain, the big boy coming for everybody's stuff in the heavyweight division. He's got the Cuban blood as well, just Baron Manuel Romero just won at 46. So the Spain being 35 means nothing. So, Tony, what is exactly the lock? The lock is you're going to have to put a lot of money down and make a lot of money here. That's the lock. There's no way that you're going to get anything better priced. This is what you got, baby.

minus 345, empty the clip. I know it's going to suck, but you're going to make your money back. I am seeing he has now dropped to one in round one minus 250. Okay. There's a little bit of an angle.

Again, very highly priced, and I hate to be the guy to give a lock of the millennium that's a minus 350. I'm just using them in a parlay. It's just that easy. I'm telling you guys, this is the guy right here. I love it.

He's definitely going to win. Josh Preachian isn't good. Before I give you my very brief breakdown. I would like to say the single most disappointing thing about Robles and really just about this whole week is my mortality because Roblese, Despaena is one day younger than I am. He was born the day after I was and he has an Olympic bronze medal and is making his UFC debut. And I have neither of those things. So I kind of hate him on principle that because, I mean, we were born around the same time.

He's going to win. He's going to beat Josh Parisian, but, Connor, you said it. It's a heavyweight fight. We're taking heavyweight over his baby. It's one and a half. Yes. Yes.

Spania has been absolutely annihilating people. There people who don't know how to fist fight. They've literally never fist fought before, and he's killing them. And that's great. Miles Banks was 1 and 0, all right? And 4 and 0 in his amateur career.

Thank you. Okay, come on. Have a little strike. Steve Payne, 2 and O in kickboxing. one in O in his amateur career. You're going to see Travis Gregor on the regional circuit here fairly soon. I can guarantee you that.

Okay. My point being, Josh Prejan, I'm not here to tell you he's good. He's not. But he's fairly durable and he has fought other real people who have fist fought. He's been in there with Parker Porter. And if you've taken the

cinder block shots from Parker Porter, no Olympic bronze medalist is going to scare you. he is going to hang around, make this ugly, and last for seven and a half minutes before succumbing to leg kicks. So we have taken the over one and a half at plus two ten. Thank you very much. I don't hate that. There it is. I do hate it.

I was spending my first time knockout. All right, just a couple more fights to get into here. CJ Vergara taking on Asu Almabayev, and right now Amabayev is your favorite. Minus 535. C.J. Vergara plus 400. Yeah, I'm taking Osso here. I'm taking Amabayev. I parolid him up with Gamrod.

He gets takedowns. He's got solid top control. Position over submission guy. Racks up control time. We'll take the submission if it is there, but is willing to just kind of lay on top and just be heavy. C.J. Vergara have been taken down. I could see this fight going similar to the Tatsuro Taira fight. Tira racked up like seven minutes of control time across like nine minutes of fight time.

And then got the choke when I presented himself. Not really sold on him being like an Uber prospect, but I think he gets it done there. Connor, I noticed something very important. Yeah, yeah. You didn't mention the weight that this fight will be contested. The flyweight fight. It's 125 pounds. It sure is.

It sure is. I'm not taking the flyweight under. But I am here to unveil my newest gimmick bet, boys. I've been workshop in this one for a hot minute. I almost deployed it recently, and I was like, oh, let's wait for a better one. And I feel like this is the time. Decided that every fight card moving forward, I'm going to blindly bet on whoever has the coolest nickname on the whole fight card. Okay.

It's very subjective because I will be the determiner of what nicknames are cool in or not. Yes. Very subjective. Altu Amabaya's nickname is Zulfiqar, which, one, is just kind of a cool word anyway. And then let me, why don't you boys get a history last? Let me tell you what Zulfurqqq brother over here. I won't stand by this forever, but based on my internet research, Zulfiqar is the name of the sword by Ali Ibn Abid Talib. Super sorry if screwed that up.

But he's a pivotal figure in early Islam. He's the first Shia Imam and sort of helped establish the religion of Islam. His sword was apparently named Zulfiqar. And though there is some dispute to the exact, like, meaning or interpretation of that, one of the interpretations, the one I'm choosing to believe in, is the severer of spines slash the spine splitter. Wow. I've got to tell you, spine splitter is a pretty sick-ass nickname.

If that is the direct translation, then that's the winner. There's some good nicknames on this card, Kung Fu Kid, Sugar, Diamond. There's got a big word. Spine splitter is, you can say. The pig boy. Fine splinter is bad ass. And that's what I've chosen. And so I'll be taking the spine splitter inside the distance minus 105.

And so then I can feel like I'm in the flyweight unders and I'm backing my new gimmick. So that's where we're at. Love it. Anything for you on this one, Tony. I'm taking the gimmick. He just taught me what the gimmick was. I mean, there it is. Spine splitter is just incredible.

You got me in Spine splitter. Yeah, you got me. Incredible. Last but not least, the rematch we have all been waiting for. Joanne Wood taking on Marina Morose, the rematch from 2015. Opening the card up right. Moro's armbarder in 90 seconds. That was the Gonzaga versus Crow Cop 2 card for those that remember.

We all remember. Marina Moros minus 230, John Wood plus 190. I'm not playing Joe Ann Wood at 38 years old going into retirement fight. I'm not laying minus 230 on Marina Moroes. Therefore, I will not have a bet. I think that's smart, but Connor, we know what this is. It's a women's fallaway fight. And we're taking over.

This is the other half of the women's flyweight over parley. Woodmore is over. It's minus 325. You have those two together. You get about minus 1.45 for those two overs. And I've taken it. There it is. That's a boy.

There it is. All right. That is UFC 299. Before we move on to other topics and then close, I do just sort of want to throw this out. I'm tinkering with just taking an out. absolute moonshot on the main card underdog parlay because I think we all think that the underdogs in the main card all at least have a chance at winning you tie them all together it's plus

10,000 CB wow so you would be going with marlin chito vera dust in the diamond pourier michael venom page gilbert burns and song you don't yeah it's plus 10,150 if you tie them all together just as an absolute moon shot just put a buck on and see what happens that's a half That's a heifer. Yeah, I don't know. I don't know if that's going to happen. Five for five underdogs, I would be shocked. I would be, but unlike with other fight cards,

like I could at least see that happening on this one. Yeah, I wouldn't be. Like last week, I would have never imagined we could get, you know, six for six on main card underdogs or whatever. So I just, I wanted to add it up and see it. And it is a big number putting it out there. But let's talk about boxing because we got to do that.

Before we do that, I just want to throw out is Cedric Dumbay minus 115. the biggest sucker play of the century. I bet him plus a hundred, hondo, so I'm a, call me a sucker, but. Where did you get that line at? Hold on.

It's on fight odds right now, but I bet it. I'm seeing plus 105 now. Wow, I'm seeing plus 114 for Cedric Dumbay. Jack Kings has a plus 114. So that's, I should have waited. So I was coming to. you is this the sucker bet of the century because sedge dune bay opened as a favorite and he has now open at minus 145 he has now been bet to the underdog and man if he loses all the hype is gone

yeah i feel like i got to ride him though i feel like i got to ride i mean look if if you want to bet against him that's that's your prerogative but i i choose to believe in fun things and hope and and joy and betting against him in favor of um freaking bice and Angkor, Chamsuda. Like, that's just, no one's having fun with that. Yeah, I also, like, know nothing about Bucky. I'm not going to lie. I mean, is he just going to take him down?

He's an in a big factory, dude. That's all I got. And I don't think a ton of that, Jim. I think it's fine, but not great. Um, all right, I just wanted to throw that out there. Let's go to boxing. I'm taking the sucker bed too. I'll take it at plus 114.

It's great. It's great price. Better price than I got. To boxing. Anthony Joshua, Francis, and Ghana going down in Saudi Arabia this weekend. One bet that I am on for sure, and then I want to throw a couple of more out to you. Anthony Joshua under a half knockdown, so no knockdowns recorded, plus 200.

Four of his last seven have gone to a decision. Francis and Ghana, 21 professional fights, never been knocked down, never been knocked out, fought in the heavyweight division in the UFC, didn't have either of those things happened to him. Took a massive elbow from Tyson Fury last time out and just kept on walking. dude has got a chin on him. And I'm not sure AJ is the one to knock him down at plus 200. I really like that.

I have a bet that would support your theories here. What's here? I've doubled up on Joshua by decision at plus 400. Baby. So I got two more bets I want to throw out to. One of them being Anthony Joshua by decision, I mean, if he looks like he has of late, which has just been fantastic,

think it feels like no matter how tough Inganu is, he's probably going to get out boxed over the course of the 10 rounds and like plus 400. I mean, I just don't know if AJ is going to be knocking Inganu out. Like I said, four of his last seven have gone to decision. I wrote about this for my fighting this earlier this week. You can convince me a lot of things happen in this fight. The thing that I would be by far the most surprised with any outcome is Joshua knocking out in Gano like cold. maybe he gets a TKO rough stoppage. I still don't even think that's likely. For instance, Ghanu has an otherworldly chin.

Like, people just truly, I don't think, respect and understand enough. Steepin Mietich is not what anyone would call a soft hitter. And Steepin Mietich could not finish Inganu when he was dead on his feet at the four-minute mark. For 21 minutes, Stipe was hammering him. And in Gano, to your point about Cheeto at the start of this whole thing, Fresh as a daisy, look totally fine.

Like he, his chin is unbelievable. And I know Joshua's a big hitter. He's not the biggest hitter at heavyweight boxing, and you're putting them in 12 ounces or 10 ounce gloves. I'm not actually sure what they're fighting in. It seems deeply unlikely to me that he actually knocks Inganu out. That being said, I think Aganu Vat, like wildly overachieved against Fury. I don't think the same thing will happen here.

But Joshua is going to have to be really, like, safe because he doesn't, like, he can get got and Inganu is a dude who gets you. So I think this fight is going to look like a sort of classic, hey, here's a veteran boxer teaching a dude who doesn't know anything about boxing, because that's really what Inganu is. He doesn't know there yet. And so Fury had some moments like that. I think Joshua will just be a lot better. If there's a finish, it would be late because Inganu just gets too tired and the rough stops a string of punches. But I think this is a pretty clear Joshua decision win. Like that's my read on it.

And so plus 400, I doubled up on the bet. Here is the last one I want to throw out to you. The 50 to 1. Francis Inganu to win by split decision. 50 to 1 is large. We were that close to getting it against Tyson Fury. I mean, I'm with you. I think if Ingana wins, it's going to be razor close.

I don't think he's going to run away with it or he's going to need to knock AJ out. and I mean, you know, say Francis and Gano gets a knockdown, things get kind of tricky. Maybe everyone's like, oh, he won that six to four. But then you got, you know, the weird judges and boxing. One of them gives it to AJ. Francis and Gano gets his hands right. 50 to one. Maybe.

51 is sort of just worth a dollar. We were one judge away from getting it against Tyson Fury. It was that close happening. To me that this fight is just going to be way different because the Fury fight existed. I think Joshua just is now like, oh, this is real. And I don't think, like, I think if, I don't think he's going to be able to get a finish. And so I guess if you're going to back him, that's probably a better way to go. I just have a really hard time seeing Inano win this fight.

Right, right. I guess the only thing that I'll say to that is like everyone said that last time. And he didn't win the fight. Right. But he came very, very close to winning the fight. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. All right. You're being a bitch about this.

Like, come on. He was so close to winning the fight. He was like, like it was incredible. Like he was incredible. If he does something similar, that will be great. I will be pretty surprised if he like does it. I know.

because I am with you. I am with you. Like I keep trying to force myself to be like, and Gano's going to do it. It's way more fun to believe in Francis. Like, it's way more fun. And by the odds. If it happens.

What are his odds for a K.O.? I know. He's going to, he's going to. Francis by K.O. is plus three. Plus 450. Oh, plus three. At drafting right now.

I think here's what I'm going to do. Joshua, no knockdowns. AJ by decision and then tiny, tiny, sprinkle in Ghana by split. I mean, that's just fun. So sure. Yeah.

I'm just super with you on kind of our broad read. I think this fight will not be fun to watch after a few rounds in. It will just be a lot of jabs from Joshua, a lot of motion, just a ton more volume, because that's where Fury really screwed the pooch. He just did, he was more active than Francis, but Francis was doing nothing for big stretches of that fight. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm with you. I'm feeling better about the AJ by decision.

After talking through it. You got anything on it, Tony? I'm excited to see it, man. Anytime Francis gets into either an octagon or a ring, it's just electric. It's electric. It was a lot closer than we anticipated between Tyson Fury and Francis the first time. It was a never-in-doubt. It was never in doubt.

Do you know how much money I put on Tyson Fury? I was really concerned. Minus 400. And I was sitting there like, oh, my God. It was such a terrible emotional. moment because I was like, this is also,

this is amazing. And then I was like, this is the worst thing that's ever happened to me. It was, it was so bad. I mean, and I really did think

Inganu was going to get his hand raised. I really did think he's going to get his hand raised. Anything else on this card? I might throw a couple quid on, on Inganu knockout. Oh, it would be amazing if it happened. A couple quid.

Five bucks, ten bucks. Just have fun. Gambling's supposed to be fun. Say it all the time. Exactly. Anything else on this card, Jed. I have nothing. I kind of thought about Zhang just because I like him.

And he's probably going to be Joseph Parker, but I don't. That would just be full on gambling. There would not be a ton of like knowledgeable insight. There's like vibes. I am taking Jolly Zhang on vibes. Sure, many people will say that he represents China, but he also represents the great state of New Jersey, where I have got boots on the ground.

He trains out of the beautiful city of blue. Longfield, New Jersey, got to back him, parlayed him with the big boy, my neck of the woods, Tony neck of the woods. It's the Jailie Zhang, Robles to Spahn. Just the big boy parlay. That pays out at minus 109. And that's the action, man. I got a lot of it.

I honestly, we should not go over our bets there. Let's not go over it. I have 10 singles and four parlayes. I'm counting up right now. What are you got, Tony? Anything locked in yet? Not locked in. Once we finish this, I'm about to lock everything in because obviously in Florida,

we have a little bit of a different system that we've got to go through. So I'm going to start locking in stuff now. Even though a lot of the rounds bets and like decision CO, like those prop bets are still not open. Yeah. In Miami at the moment. But when they do. What do you have there? Hard rock?

Hard rock, yeah. Shout out. Shout out. DK partner for life though. DK Sportsbook, go check that out. Is D.K. going to have a lock of the century bet up for this UFC card via your partnership? I can, I will, I will call the people that need to be called and put and tell them, hey, MMA hang out, lock of the millennium.

Millennium, not century even, sorry, I undersold it. Millennium. Millennium. Lock a millennium and they're giving you an odds boost from minus 350 to minus 325. Come on. Come on. All right. any parting words for the people as we go into 299 a nice 90 minute no bets barred for you

gotta do it when it's when it's something this good i mean call me crazy i don't think we're gonna go 90 next week is all i'm saying oh my god next week i think is like let's say it right now let's just let's just make a pact 35 i think next week is like three bet maximum it depends on how this week goes. If I'm flush, maybe I'll just throw a lot of it out. I mean, we know I'm taking a heavyweight over next week. We know that's happening. So then...

Oh, and it's a tie-to-evasa-way. Plus, there are two women's band-em-weight fights on that card? Partying those over is like, you guys can build my betting slip right now without knowing a single thing. The winning streak for Jed starts now. We go back to back. I am bouncing back, and the king of Miami

is taking the loot home. from Kaya Arena. Kasea Center. Kasea Center. I don't even know where I got Kaya Arena from. We still don't even call it that, so don't worry about it. American Airlines, is that what we still call? Always AAA for life, baby.

Boys, it has been an absolute pleasure breaking this down with you. I think I'm that much more excited for this week, this whole week, Thursday, Friday, Saturday. We're sucking it all up. We are the chumps, the fish, the suckers of the sea on Thursday. We're both riding with Cedric Dumbay. then back in a little AJ by decision on Friday and then we're just all over the gaff as they say on Saturday for 299. That is that. Thank you, Tony. Thank you, Jed. We'll see you next week for Apex 88. Let's see y'all.