MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Sean O'Malley Upset Merab Dvalishvili At UFC 316?

Episode Date: June 4, 2025

UFC 316 is finally here. Kicking off a stacked summer of MMA action, UFC 316 goes down this Saturday, headlined by a pair of bantamweight title fights. In the co-main event, Julianna Peña puts her ...women's bantamweight title on the line against Kayla Harrison, and then in the main event, Merab Dvalishvili gives Sean O'Malley a chance for revenge and the men's bantamweight title. And, of course, No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Morning Kombat's Long Island Luke to preview Saturday's big card. Topics discussed include whether or not O'Malley can upset Dvalishvili, Peña's chances at ruining the UFC plans yet again, Patchy Mix's debut against Mario Bautista, the best undercard action, the latest updates on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 129 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew Follow Luke Noseda: ⁠@MainCardMinute⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. And this week, it's finally a good card. Frankly, the first of what promises to be many good cards. We'll have a little bit of a break somewhere mixed in there. But I think we are eight weeks away from the apex. We don't go back to the apex until August because this week, the roadshow begins.
Starting point is 00:00:36 We head to Newark, New Jersey, and UFC 316. has become a bit of a tradition around here. Didn't do it for 315. That was in Canada. Had to get my buddy, Alexander K. Lee, the king of the north to attend. But outside of specific circumstance like that,
Starting point is 00:00:54 you know how we like to do these pay-per-view cards. I am talking, of course, about this week's guest from the main card minute from Morning Combat, Luke, how we doing, buddy? Jed, good to be back. Appreciate you always having me out for the pay-reviews. You know, little hurt I wasn't off for three years. but you know, AK, great replacement, great episode.
Starting point is 00:01:13 Glad it worked out for you guys. The king in the north. You got to, you know, unless you are secretly Canadian, we can't pass up one of the few times that we go back to the Great White North. We got to show them love. Also, that card was largely not that fun anyway, which has been a bit of a theme here. The last several events, UFC on ESPN, whatever, UFC Vegas, one. which was now even looking at Wikipedia they have already changed it to USC on ESPN Gamerot versus Klein because of all the nonsense.
Starting point is 00:01:51 Ludovic Klein in a in a main event this year. What a treacherous card. Luke, how did that card treat you? Because it was bad. It was a bad watch, but it was actually a good card unit wise. Obviously main event became a void. I did have that in a parlay. what did I have on this card?
Starting point is 00:02:11 I had Macy Chasson. Oh, I got those wrong. All right, wait. I had Dustin Jacoby not to go the distance. I had Rames-Brahimaj not to go the distance, parlayed together. And then I also had, shit, why do I? I'm looking back at this card.
Starting point is 00:02:28 I'm like, because it's a wildly figureable card, buddy. Oh, I had Gamrod parlayed with the main event. That's what it was. So it just became a single on Gamrod. Either way, I finished up about two units overall. Nice. I, uh, I had multiple bets that fell apart.
Starting point is 00:02:41 Mark Al Madero's fight fell apart on final week. Obviously, the main event. I was pretty heavy on Aaron Blanchfield, fell apart moments before they were supposed to walk, which is real shame, because given the circumstances, would have felt even better about my Aaron Blanchfield bet if Macy Barber had decided to tough it out and go in there.
Starting point is 00:02:59 But the most important thing, we continued to climb. Let's go. steps down as I was genuinely astonished that the Garmark Klein over one and a half was only minus 500. I was like, have you guys seen Matush Gammarot fight ever? This thing is for sure going long. So felt great about that bet.
Starting point is 00:03:21 And we march on with the climb. Got a climb bet this week as well. Another one that I'm very pleased with. I hope that won't be my undoing. But let's dive right into things this week. Luke because UFC 316, this is the pay-per-view nobody wanted. When you look at the upcoming slate, people were very excited with the announced fights a few weeks back.
Starting point is 00:03:46 Like, look at all the great cards we've got this summer, and that is true. And then they added this one in there, but the reality is I don't know many people super excited about this weekend. And in part, that comes down to the main event, a rematch between Rob DeValishvili and Sean O'Malley. They first fought, of course, just nine months ago with Davalishvili winning a very clear unanimous decision win, competitive in moments, but more people scored that 4-1, Davalishvili than they did 3-2 for O'Malley. O'Malley has not want to fight since then, but getting another opportunity because Dana White privilege is real. That being said, he is a fairly sizable underdog, plus 260 on O'Malley.
Starting point is 00:04:31 Davalishvili, your favorite, around minus 325. Obviously, on track to have a great year. He upset Umar and Margamatov back in January to defend and retain his title. Now he's getting what looks to be a favorable matchup for him. Luke, how are we feeling about this main event, both from an entertainment standpoint and from a gambling standpoint? All right. Well, first I've got to say, I'm a big Marabh Homer.
Starting point is 00:04:56 So, like, from an entertainment standpoint, I'm probably more enthused than most people. and even I am not that enthused in this matchup. Personally, I would have preferred to see the Peotrador Yan rematch. I know he, like, rag-dalled Peotrater-Yon, but, like, at least that was long enough ago and there had been fights in between where, like, I could see them running that back. Marab's won 12 straight fights,
Starting point is 00:05:17 including four former champions. Sean, you just mentioned coming off the Marab fight, so a little weird. Marab did double Sean's significant strikes in the first fight, and was able to take him down six times. I really don't think Sean's going to be able to shore up his takedown defense in nine short months to be able to improve it all in that department. But at the same time, he did spend 25 minutes in the cage with Marab.
Starting point is 00:05:39 So there's a chance this fight is a little closer. Maybe he gets some better reads this time around, could catch Marab with something. But this is Marab's fight to lose, dude. A rematch so close together usually favors the winner of the first fight, especially a unanimous decision victory in the first fight, not like a fluky finish. Worth noting, did predict on MK's end-of-year prediction show that Marab would still be champ at the end of the year and we'll defend his belt three times this year. And that was going into the Umar fight that you just mentioned where he was a big underdog.
Starting point is 00:06:09 So, you know, looking like a genius if he can pull this off against Sean here with six months left in the year to get another title defense by principle, got a back Long Island's adoptive brotherin Marab de Walsh Wheely here, money line got him at minus 270 and parlaying it with another fighter on this card. We'll obviously talk about it later. Also, fun fact, got him at plus 270 against Umar. and now he's minus 270 here against Sean. Something special about that 270 in Marab, right?
Starting point is 00:06:37 I mean, minus 270 is a great price. Wherever you got that, going to be tough to find that for much longer, I would imagine. Look, if you're trying to sell yourself the story, you have to tell yourself the story that Sean O'Malley is pitching, right? He had a torn laborman his hip that prevented him from doing any wrestling or grappling. That has been repaired. Thus, he is more prepared to fight Marab.
Starting point is 00:06:58 Maybe you can squint your eyes and be like, ah, the broken toe for Marab, that's what's going to do it here. These are hard stories to tell. I do think Sean O'Malley has a chance to win this fight because I thought he had a chance to win the first fight. I don't think that that chance is amazing, but he is a dynamic striker.
Starting point is 00:07:18 Marab does not, his Maraub striking defenses primarily, he will take you down a bunch and he has a good chin. He can get hit. You know, we've seen him get buzzed at moments in time. Sean O'Malley is talented enough to catch him. The question is, can he finish him? Because Maraub is so very durable.
Starting point is 00:07:37 And even if he gets caught, he has that legendary cardio, recovers very quickly. And then he's just doing the same thing over and over again. And I know O'Malley had at points had success defending takedowns. I think the third round, he stuffed like three of them. Those weren't really committed shots from Rob. I just struggled to see what is significantly different unless you really think getting off social media and weed is better for him, you know, really think that the hip injury was was more of a big deal than we think about it. I am just unconvinced by those
Starting point is 00:08:09 arguments. That being said, I do think these odds are about correct, right? You know, Vosal's really about a three to one favorite. That feels right to me. You know, I don't hate anybody putting MRAB in a parlay. But right now, as of recording this, I don't know how long this price will stay the same. But over at Fandul, you can get DeVos. Philly on points at minus 150. To me, that is a terrific line. Marab doesn't finish people.
Starting point is 00:08:37 It's just not going to happen, barring Sean O'Malley breaking his ankle or something or his hip falling off. Like, he's just, if Maraub's going to win, it's going to win by decision. But same token, I think if you're a Sean O'Malley backer and you want to bet him, you might as well just take the K.O. prop.
Starting point is 00:08:54 You're getting a little bit of extra juice on that. I don't think he's winning a decision, and I'd be frankly astonished if he'd, tap Marab. Like, if he's going to win, it's going to be a Sean O'Malley, K.O. So get the extra juice there. But minus 150 for a decision, I don't think that price is going to stay. The price might not even be the same by the time this episode drops, frankly.
Starting point is 00:09:14 So I jumped all over that as soon as I saw it. I was hoping to get that at plus money. Once I saw it was minus 150, like you said, I was like, fuck, man, this is just going to keep trending away from this, isn't it? But 11 of his 12 UFC wins by decision. So it seems like a lock. of anything. Yeah, I mean, he was nowhere near finishing O'Malley in the first one.
Starting point is 00:09:35 And if we take any bit of the O'Malley was hurt, I don't know why we would then be like, Ah, Marab's going to win. This time against a better Sean O'Malley, he's going to finish him. Nope. If, I think unless Marab, you know, gets that Balaahmahman-Kanello hands in his head, I think he's going to carry the day the exact same way he did nine months ago. because this fight happened nine months ago. There's nothing to debate about then.
Starting point is 00:10:04 It's why this fight was reviled when it was announced. I have never seen Luke in all my time in the sport. I cannot remember a title fight being more universally hated than when they announced this one. And it would be cool if Sean Amalley won, frankly, just because that would be something different. But I don't think that's in the cards for us. I think your Long Island brethren's going to get it done. Let's go. that takes us to the co-main event.
Starting point is 00:10:30 Now, this is a fight that people are actually excited about insofar as people get excited about women's bantamweight fights. Because Giuliana Pena, your UFC women's bantamweight champion, two-time women's bandamweight champion, taking on the princess who was promised Kayla Harrison. Harrison, massive betting favorite, minus 625. One of, if not the biggest favorites on the card. I'm looking at it right now because I actually think she is the biggest betting favorite on the card. I think so, too, yeah. She sure is the biggest betting favorite on the card.
Starting point is 00:11:00 Come back on Peña, plus 455 for the two-time champion. Pena, man, she's had a weird career. She is, despite being the champion, she is only three and two over her past five fights in the Octagon. Famously, the lost to Manan Nunes being one of those. And then a split-decision win over Raquel Pennington to win the title at UFC 307 in October. A split-decision win that many people do not feel she deserved.
Starting point is 00:11:27 to win, but nonetheless she got it. She has the belt. Harrison. Also, last fall to UFC 307, she took a unanimous decision win over Ketlin Vieira in a, let's call it, underwhelming performance. She is 2 in the UFC since coming over from PFL and finally
Starting point is 00:11:43 doing the thing. Her entire point was, I'm coming to the O.C. to win the band and weight belt. Here, she is getting that opportunity. Luke, is Kayla a deserving massive betting favor here? No, dude, not? I mean, she's going to win. I think, but not at this price.
Starting point is 00:12:00 I tried, I really tried to make any two-leg parlay with Kayla money line in it, and I couldn't even get it to plus money because that's how big of a favorite she is. Big, big number. You mentioned Pena only won three of her last five. She's only also fought once in the last three years, that Rocky Pennington fight. She also only has one win over a ranked UFC fighter, that being the Rocky Pennington win that I think more people than not think she didn't deserve that win. I mean, I had a Pena decision bet in that, so I can't complain it.
Starting point is 00:12:31 But Kayla, she's won three straight. You mentioned two and O in the UFC. She's looked good despite probably cutting half of her body weight in the process. Pena will have a three-inch reach advantage, but she also has a pretty terrible 23% takedown defense. And we all know it's going to be Kayla's game plan to take her down. but we've also seen Kayla fall flat in a five-rounder before against Larissa Pacheco. If Pena can stuff the takedown, I truly think she can have success on the feet. It's probably going to be a pretty one-sided fight in favor of Kayla, but the price is just way too high for me.
Starting point is 00:13:06 I'm taking the alt total rounds, the over two and a half. I got it at minus 200. I haven't in a parlay that we'll get to as we go. Pena's hit it in five of her last six and Kayla's hit it in three of her last four. I'm not going to lie to you. I don't love that bet for you because I think Kayla Harrison is about to run rough shot over Joel Hanna Pena. Really? There are many reasons why.
Starting point is 00:13:29 The only question I have in this fight is how bad is the weight cut effect, Kayla? Because she has never made 135. She's made 136 and it has looked like hell doing so. That extra pound, it may not seem like a lot. It's almost everything. And so if that is just truly too big a bridge for her to cross, frankly, she might not make it. We got to see if she's even going to make it.
Starting point is 00:13:54 I'm assuming she will. Consum of professional, been in athletics for her entire life. But what will be the cost? If that really affects it, it's the only way I see Juliana Pena winning, because here's the thing. Julian Pena isn't good. And I say this is one of the very few human beings on earth who picked her to beat a man an an Nunes when she upset a manna Nunes.
Starting point is 00:14:15 I do remember that. She's just not good. Like, look at the people she's, beaten. Jessica I, literally a decade ago. Katzingano, almost a decade ago. It's Katzangano. Nico Montaio, Sarah McMahon, Amanda Nunes, obviously that is an incredible win, but then she got her stopped in the rematch. A couple former champions in there, just saying. And then I don't believe she should have beaten Rakhala Pena. Juliana Pena is not good. What Juliana Pena is, is tough. She's tough and she's scrappy, and she can take a shot and has a dog in her to keep fighting.
Starting point is 00:14:58 The problem is, she's not good. And as you pointed out, her takedown defense is not what anybody would qualify as strong. Kayla Harrison is going to get her. Amanda Nunes took her down at will, and Kayla Harrison is just a much better submission grappler. We have twice seen Julian Appendi get tapped out by, let's also be honest. here noted submission specialists Valentina Shivchenko and Jermaine Durandumie tapped
Starting point is 00:15:26 her. Like Julianna Pena is just going to get taken down. She's going to get tapped out. If she can last into the fourth round, she's certainly going to have a cardio advantage. She is not cutting half her body weight to get down. Maybe she can make something happen. If she
Starting point is 00:15:42 were just a more dynamic fighter, I would like her chances better here. But the thing is, she's not like Amanda Nunes just died. that's how she beat her. Mandanunez got so tired from beating the soul out of her that she physically couldn't move and then Giuliana managed to tap her. But like, it's not like she comes out and is going to put the myths on Kayla Harrison. She's not a good striker either. So I just, unless Kayla is totally shot because of this weight cut, I struggle to see her not having her
Starting point is 00:16:16 way and absolutely demolishing Juliana Pena. And that's not a huge. huge, I am a, like, I like Kayla erson, and I do think she's good. This is not a statement of me being like, she is the greatest. This is really a condemnation of Trulana Pia. Who I do not think much of as a fighter. But you said so.
Starting point is 00:16:35 So over two and a half could hit. She's tough, and that is important. If Kayla Harrison was just trying to punch her in the face, I would say this is a great bet. She's going to try and choke her out, which I think is questionable. Because I'm just, if Jermaine de Rand to me can tap you, Kayla Harrison can tap you,
Starting point is 00:16:50 And that's really my core concept here. We're also talking another former champion, Jaron DeRandumie. So like, you are technically correct. Right. In that regard. I got Kayla Harrison inside the distance at minus 150.
Starting point is 00:17:05 And I feel great about that. I hope for your sake, she taps her in the third round. I hope for all our sakes, Kayla wins, though, because I can acknowledge. Luke,
Starting point is 00:17:18 it would be one of the funniest things of all times. If Pena twice stopped the Kayla Harrison Amanda Nunes' super fight that they've been trying to make for five years. Two times on both ends of it, she was like, nah, I got this. I'm going to step right in here. That would be undeniably quite funny. That would be sick. Okay, that is the two big fights of the evening. And then the rest of this card loop, before we dive into it, just big picture.
Starting point is 00:17:43 How are you feeling about it? Because I don't care for it on paper. I think that this card is pretty weak outside of the main two fights. And again, the main event is not a fight that I think is great. But I will say, I got a lot of action on this fight, on this fight card. So, well, it might not be the most enjoyable watch. I don't think it will be. There are a lot of fights, a lot of underdogs, a lot of just good action out here.
Starting point is 00:18:08 How are you feeling before we move into the rest of it? I mean, you already know I got a bet on every fight. So obviously got the action. main card i think a little better than you're giving it credit for not a two-fight card you know we got the patchy mix debut in there yeah he's fighting mario bautista could end up being a boring fight but like it's still an exciting debut gasolum pifer i feel like we might be on the same page it doesn't really do it for me i don't know why i just feel like it's not going to be that great luke hollins should be fun like there's a chance that wins like fight of the night but does it do anything no and then
Starting point is 00:18:43 like the rest of the prelims are pretty weak dude when i was going to through these prelims, I was like, damn, this is a paperview card. This is, uh, not to beat a dead horse. I know everyone's been saying this for months now, but, you know. It's, it's tough. There are a couple of fights that are like. The rest of his main card, I, uh, you mentioned the patchy, makes myr-Batista fight, which we'll get to shortly as the best one of them.
Starting point is 00:19:04 Um, the things are meaningful there. The rest of it is maybe it'll be fun. I'm not particularly, it doesn't matter. Yeah. Yeah. Um, but let's dive right in because you did mention. the feature bout of the evening, a middleweight contest, Kelvin Gastilum, taking on Joe Pfeiffer. This fight was originally scheduled for U.C. Mexico back in March.
Starting point is 00:19:25 But Pfeiffer pulled out on Fight Day and then blamed it on Mexico because he fucked up his weight cut. I got to be honest with you, I have zero patience for Joe Piper. He is just the exact sort of human being I would rather never hear from. but that being said he is four and one in the promotion coming off the knockout win over mark and julya at ufc 303 kelvin gasolm one in one since dropping back down to welterweight lost to sean brady but then picked a benignum decision win over uh daniel rodriguez back in june so full year ago gasolm plus 300 underdog pie for a sizable betting favorite at minus 380 uh luke i broke this fight down back in march ucc msu mexico and thus my thoughts are exactly the same.
Starting point is 00:20:14 But what do you think about this before we get to me? So I changed since March because I remember I originally had a Joe Piper moneyline bet in March. I think the price was a little cheaper. Since it did. So back in March Piper opened as a minus 500 and then a ton of money came in to lower him down to a little bit worse than he is now. I think he was like minus three something. Yeah. I remember him being like high twos, low threes.
Starting point is 00:20:40 And I took that. But this time around, again, couldn't really find the value on it. Dude, Gastilum, only 33 years old. He's been pro for 16 years. Dude, he and Lucay are the oldest 33-year-olds you'll ever see. And Gregory Rodriguez, just from face. Well, Gregory Rodriguez, I think they don't have his birth certificate right. He's 43.
Starting point is 00:21:03 They just read it wrong or something. They missed a one somewhere in there. But, yo, Gasolam lost three of his last five and six of them. of his last nine. Pretty tough run here. Three most recent losses did come against top seven guys in both welterweight and middleweight though, so, you know, not bad. Piper, you mentioned, rebounded nicely with that quick K-over, Barry O. He will also have a five-inch height and four-inch reach advantage here. He does also have, like, scary knockout power. Dude, nine of his 13 wins by K-O, but gaslum, he's got a chin, never been K-Oed in that 16-year pro career. Given the chin and experience
Starting point is 00:21:39 to Gasolum. The line feels too wide to take Joe Piper this time around, but I also don't believe enough in Gasolum to be like, ooh, let me take Gasolum as a dog here. So I'm instead taking a super risky over one and a half, and I'm parlaying it with the over two and a half in Pena Harrison. So you probably really hate this jet. Plus 129 for those two. It is obviously worrisome. Piper's only hit it once in five UFC fights, but Gasolum is like a guarantee to hit it. He's hit it in six straight fights. And again, given his chin, I could see this going long. So I'm riding with the over one and a half.
Starting point is 00:22:15 I don't actually hate that over one and a half. I do hate that you parlayed it up with one that I don't feel confident in. But I had the same breakdown I had at USC Mexico. I don't believe in Joe Pfeer. I don't think anyone should be Joe Pfeiffer. I think Joe Pfeiffer is, Joe Pfeiffer has the hallmarks to me of a fighter who actually gets fraud checked. in that his game is entirely athleticism and power. And, like, there's not, like, this robust well of skill behind it.
Starting point is 00:22:46 He's just a big dude who hits hard. He's pretty athletic. That's why Jack Hermanson, of all people, just dummied him because Jackermanston is good at fighting. He's not flashy. He's not exciting. Jackermanson is a professional fighter who's been doing this for a very long time and is good. And so he's like, ah, here's some fundamentals. And Joe Pfeiffer did not have an answer.
Starting point is 00:23:05 It's like, I don't know what to do. I'm getting jabbed. the shit is happening. He didn't die when I punched him in the face. I guess I just lose. That is a concerning thing against the guy who's not going to die when you punch him in the face. Kelvin Gasselm is super not going to die when he gets punched in the face. Being said, Gasselam, this isn't a good middleweight. That's the big concern for him here. He's just much better at Walterway. I know he can't make weight, but I refuse. I refuse to believe that Kayla Harrison can make 135 and Kelvin Gasselm can't make.
Starting point is 00:23:37 170, he just isn't disciplined and hasn't been in his entire career. So he's fighting at that disadvantage. It wouldn't shock me if Pfeiffer was able to just hit explosive takedowns and kind of control gas to him. But plus 300, big price for a dude who I think is more talented than Joe Piper. And so I took a little half-unit play on him. Same thing I did back in Mexico. I felt even better about that because Joe Pfeiffer's swing a real hard plan would be terrible
Starting point is 00:24:06 at Mexican elevation, but not quite the same for Newark, New Jersey, but plus 300, feeling okay about it, really do like the over one and a half. You said it was over one and a half you took, right? Not over two and a half? Yeah, one and a very much like that.
Starting point is 00:24:22 I think that's a solid play from you. And now let's move on to a bantamweight fight that I am begrudgingly excited for Mario Bautista taking on patchy makes patchy, making his UC debut coming over as the Bellator champion minus 175 betting favorite.
Starting point is 00:24:39 The comeback on Battista, who is plus 150, both men on seven-fight win streaks. Though technically Mario Batista is actually on a one-fight losing streak because you will never convince me he beat Jose Aldo at UC 307. You could argue the same for Patchy Mix, by the way. The Magamund-Magumann-Magamad fight was very, very not clear cut. Let's put it that way. So both men in similar circumstances, except for people are very excited about. Apache mix and I got to be honest Luke I've never seen this sort of a open revolt to a fighter it is
Starting point is 00:25:15 hard to remember a fighter who previously mara batista his whole career was fun like even with the aldo fight I remember being like well this fight is stupid and doesn't really make sense but batista's really fun guy so like this will just be fun and then and the biggest opportunity of his career he was the worst fighter of all time and really hurted his self in the court of public opinion. I think he can get back to being fun here against patchy mix, which Luke, I think, makes his fight quite fun, right? Like, we're just going to get a really exciting, scrambling mix them up, aren't we?
Starting point is 00:25:52 I hope you're right, Jed. I could see Mario Batista just biting down on the heel thing and doing the exact same thing he did to Jose Aldo. I mean, I don't know if he's exactly fan favorite. Like, dude, he's getting memes made after him of, like, him and Tom Aspinall in the cage together. It's like guys only want one thing and it's disgusting and instead of John Jones, it's Mario Bautista.
Starting point is 00:26:13 hilarious. Anyways, both these guys coming in on their seven fight win streaks. How about this though? Five of the seven guys on Bautista's win streak no longer in the UFC. Granted, one of them is Jose Aaldo who retired, so we won't really count him. But the other four cut due to bad performance. Also, we all know he lost that Jose Alto fight anyway. Three of the seven guys on Patchy's win streak.
Starting point is 00:26:35 former Bellator champions, and he finished two of them, mentioned he probably lost his last fight too, but he did get the nod, and he's finished Magamad Mogamette of before, so we're going to let that one slide. Patchy's going to have the height and reach advantage. He's elite on the ground, 13 of his 20 pro wins coming by sub.
Starting point is 00:26:51 Baltista was subbed in his UFC debut by Corey Sandman Sanhagen. I'm riding with Patchy Mixed Moneyline here. I parlayed it with Marab Moneyline, plus 125. That is also the New York parlay, Jed, those playing at home. I love New York Parley. I am also on the Patchy Mix money line. I think he is just a better grappler than Mara Batista.
Starting point is 00:27:15 I also think he's a more dynamic striker, but I mostly think we are going to get scrambles. I think they are going to be rolling on the ground. I like Mix's length and his ability to sort of transition a little bit better than Mara Batista. You know, I believe patchy Mix can get the sub, which is why I'm taking the money line here, because there is like, I'm kind of interested in the idea that Mara Batista might be probably good enough to make it to the cards
Starting point is 00:27:42 and you can get plus money if you want to pick a method here for Mix, but I am too scared to pick a method. I'll just take the money on minus 175. And I hope he gets a finish because Bantamway desperately needs patchy mix to put out a statement and then just immediately fight the winner of the main event
Starting point is 00:28:00 because God love Corey Sandhagen. doesn't really deserve a title fight. Piotrion probably does deserve a title fight, but do any of us really want to see Mrabian too? Not particularly. So patchy mix, come out here, make a statement, and let's get something fun and exciting for Marab's final bantam weight fight of the year
Starting point is 00:28:22 and your year-in prediction, buddy. He says he's going for four this year, so he might do another one after that. Oh, I think that that's changed, because in an interview he gave this week, he's like talking to Aljo this week he's like I want to take a break after this fight so I assume if he's taking a break he's not trying to get four in this year though Maraub's crazy maybe he is who can say true but that takes us to the main card opening bout of the evening a welterweight contest Vicente Lucan taking on Kevin Holland Holland minus 260 betting favorite to come back on luke a plus 215 luke two and three over his past five coming off the technical submission of Timba Garumbo at UFC 310 and to December. Holland, also two and three of his past five, coming off a unanimous decision winner Gunner Nelson back in March. I have very strong feelings about this fight, but Luke, let's start
Starting point is 00:29:12 with you. What are your feelings about this fight? I mean, you'll see in a sec, but you mentioned Luke I lost three of his last five. They all came to top 11 guys, including the former champ, Balal Muhammad. He's not out here losing a bad guys. Holland, you mentioned just beat Gunner Nelson, but he had lost four of five before that. Granted, his role against top 15 guys, including the current champ, Jack Della Madelena. Either way, Holland's going to have a six-inch reach advantage here, and Lucay does get hit a lot. But Kevin Holland has a clear weakness, his takedown defense, and Lucay has actually proven
Starting point is 00:29:45 he can wrestle when he needs to. He took RDA down eight times in their fight. Also, Holland has five wins at Welterweight in the UFC, and all of them came to guys over the age of 34. Last I check, Vicentee Luka's still 33 for another five months here, baby. We got five months and we're good. 87% of his wins come by finish. Holland's been finished six times before, including his last two losses.
Starting point is 00:30:09 I'm taking a flyer of Vicente Lucke here, plus 220. Let's go. I mean, technically Vicente Luque is 33 years old. Well, in fight years. Realistically, he's 72. All right. 72 years old. I think this fight might be fun because Vicente Luque is historically exciting.
Starting point is 00:30:30 fighter and Kevin Holland tends to be. This fight is just, I think Kevin Hollis is going to kill him. Honestly, I just think Kevin Halll's going to kill him. Kevin Holland is a good welterweight and a bad middle weight. Like that's, that's just it. Like he should not fight at middleweight. He's very bad when he fights a middleweight.
Starting point is 00:30:47 That's why when he goes to middleweight, he just loses. It's like, oh, here's R.D.R. Roman Deleidze or whatever. Like, he's just not a good middleweight. He is perfectly suited for welterweight. He's enormous for the weight class, at least lengthwise. still like not that, you know, big as far as musculature and sort of just general weight, but he is gigantic, long, lanky. Vicente Luca is old and his chin is not the same that it used to be.
Starting point is 00:31:14 Yes, he can beat Timba Crembo. Timber Cimbo is not good at fist fighting. Kevin Holland is, Kevin Holland is a much better defensive wrestler at welterweight, frankly. Governor Nelson found that out as well. I think that this is just going to be Kevin Holland teeing off on Vicente Lucke. I hope Lucay's chin holds up and this can be a really fun and exciting scrap. I am questionable that it will. And as a result, I, you know, kind of wanted to take Kevin Holland straight.
Starting point is 00:31:43 Minus 260 is a little bit more. Wait too much. It's just more, like you just don't feel good about hitting a minus 260, frankly. It's like, okay, yeah, duh, you hit that way to go, kid. But it's also not even something I really want to parlor. So I decided instead, let's have a little fun. I do think Kevin Holland wins by knockout. The K.O. prop is plus 140.
Starting point is 00:32:02 I'm on Kevin Holland by knockout at plus 140. I can't say I hate that because like plus 140 is a good price on that. But I can't believe you were even considering Kevin Holland money line. Just price alone. Like this seems ridiculous. That's the reason I'm taking Luke. The price is just too hard to do it. Also, I have this in my notes.
Starting point is 00:32:21 And I know that this is, this is a me bit of stupidity. but it's real. In my head, and I know that these aren't the same fighter, and I know, in fact, that Vicente Lucay is a much better fighter. I have always equated Santiago Ponsonibio and Vicente Luque as like,
Starting point is 00:32:39 you know, like the scorpion and sub-zero of Welterweight, right? Like, they're the same. They're just pallet swapped, and Kevin Holland obliterated Santiago Poncevibuos. It was like 41, though. You got to give... Again, Vicente Luce is nationally 41.
Starting point is 00:32:54 I know his age, his birth certificate would disagree. I'm not doubting my eyes. My eyes tell me that man is old. So here we are. He's also, we forgot to mention he's reps New Jersey, born and raised in New Jersey. So like going to have a hometown crowd on his side. We got to factor that in a little bit. I don't.
Starting point is 00:33:15 Kevin Holland's going to say some very mean-spirited things. And then he's going to uppercut him in Lucke's chin is going to crumble into dust. Because he's got a lot of mileage. She's an incredibly fun fighter. There was a period where I wanted him to, I lobbied strongly for him to get a title fight. Didn't happen. Don't think it's ever going to happen. But he's hell of fun.
Starting point is 00:33:34 And the hope is that he can be durable enough to be fun on Saturday. That moves us into the prelims. And one of the better fights of the whole damn thing, a fight I'm very excited about a flyweight contest, Bruno de Silva, taking on Josh Van. Joshua Van, minus 550 betting favorite to come back on Bruno to Silva 4 plus 410. Both men, good little runs right now. Silva 4 and 1 over his past 5, though he is coming off that lost. He'll cop at UFC Tampa back in December.
Starting point is 00:34:06 Van, three-fight winning streak, unanimous decision went over Ray Saruya at UFC 313 earlier this year. I certainly have some action on this one, but how are you feeling, Luke? You mentioned Silva coming off that loss to Manel and the four-fight win streak before that dude, but three of those four guys no longer on the UFC roster. I don't know how much we can buy into that. Also, Silva, so not active. He's only had three fights in the span of Josh Vann's entire 15 fight pro career.
Starting point is 00:34:37 Josh Van looked damn good in there pretty much every single timeout except the Charles Johnson fight, but we'll let that one slide. He didn't look bad. He just got killed. Yeah. He is also the U.S. UFC all-time leader in strikes landed per minute. He lands almost nine strikes per minute.
Starting point is 00:34:53 Silva gets hit more often than he lands. Also, there's a 12-year age difference here. I like Joshua Van. I hate the price on it, even though I do think he wins. I'm probably going to take him by decision. It's minus 1.30 right now. I'll probably parlay it with something to get it plus money. Five of the six UFC wins have come by decision, including three straight.
Starting point is 00:35:14 So I feel like this could go long. I think it's very likely to go along, Josh Van. The one criticism I would have is he is not much of a finisher. You really do like your high-end prospects to be guys who can get people out of the cage. It is a lot harder to win decisions time after time than it is to just get people out of there early and leave no doubt. That being said, I am a big supporter of Josh Van. I think this kid is very likely to at least fight for a title if not hold one. super young is 23 compared to Silva's 35.
Starting point is 00:35:50 35 at flyweight. That's bad. You don't want to be 35 at flyweight. You don't want to be 35 at any weight class. You know, under 170, as the great Luke Thomas often reminds us, but you really don't want to be 35 at flyweight unless you're Davidson Figurato. It's about the only person who can pull that off. I just think Josh fans great.
Starting point is 00:36:11 Got tremendous takedown defense, super high volume. and I don't think Bruno Silva is going to one hit him in a way like Charles Johnson can or did. And so this is my climb for this week, in fact. Minus 5.50. I just, there are some other things out there, but like, Kayla Harrison, the price was a little too big. And frankly, I don't even know if she can make weight, so I didn't really want to put that here. I feel very confident in Josh Van to get it done. And I certainly hope that that happens because if not, I'll be a very, very sad boy on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:36:42 What is the bank roll up to right now on the client? We are over three grand right now on the bank roll. It's getting to actually be a problem. One, when I embarked on this journey, I didn't actually ever think I'd get this far up the mountain. This was a gimmick where I was like, I'll die. Like, the highest I'll ever get is eight in a row. We're 18 down. And I didn't really think this through.
Starting point is 00:37:05 We're like having some difficulties getting action down with this level of bankroll and not living next to a sports. book that I can go physically hand money to in this regard. So we're working, we're working our way through it as best we can. But the bankroll right now, over three grand. And that's with pulling some out after the halfway mark. So that's, um, let's go. Let's keep it going. Let's go Josh Van.
Starting point is 00:37:32 I mean, that's thing. We want to keep it going to do it. Reasonably I turned a hundred bucks into like four grand at this point. I should probably just call that good. and start over fresh. We'll just pocket a grand and then keep going with the rest or something. We pocketed 500 out of it to pay for the previous failed climbs and to book the next one. But that's smart.
Starting point is 00:37:55 Like, you know, 40 to one return or whatever. She probably is like, yeah, we're good here. But we keep going because that's the whole purpose of this gimmick is to do this. So everybody, cross your fingers. We're all team Josh Van on Saturday. Let's go. Moving on, late heavyweight contest. This isn't a good one, but I think it'll be a short one.
Starting point is 00:38:18 Osamot Mersakanov taking on Brinson Hibetto. Merzikanov minus 530, the comeback on Hibetto plus 400. Mirzikanoff, 4-0 in the O.C., coming off a TK win over Alonzo Minifield. I don't remember if that's the one that got him ranked or if the one before that got him ranked, but he is a top 11 UFC light heavyweight. Was supposed to fight Johnny Walker, and that would have been very silly and very fun. Johnny Walker pulled out. Brinson Hibaro steps in.
Starting point is 00:38:43 Habero just two and two in the U.S.C., but he is on a two-fight winning streak at least, and picked up a Camorra win over D.R. Nerga Zoya. I butchered that, and I don't care. We're blasting right through it because nobody cares about D.R. I'll just lead us off here because my breakdown of this is incredibly simple. Hibero does not particularly defend himself all that well.
Starting point is 00:39:08 He doesn't care much for defense. His belief is that an offense is better than defense. And Mersikonov swings a real big hammer. I suspect he's going to swing that hammer right into Hibaro's face, and this fight will be over. Probably in the first round, but certainly before we get to the judge's scorecards. As a result, looked at Mersikano by K.O. minus 275. That's just a big price for a prop, but I'm not interested in. So I put together a three-leg parlay that I frankly am not in love with, but I do really like
Starting point is 00:39:37 Merzikanov as one of the legs. So if you can find other legs that you like, you don't have to follow my other legs, but the Merzikanov leg, it's the one I feel the best about in that parlay. All right. Hell yeah. Merzikanov, he's looked good each time out, dude, but he fights so freaking infrequently. He's only fought four times since getting signed in 2021. He is coming off a 10-month layoff here, too. Habero, once a year. It's great. Come in, kill a dude, go home. Hebero was probably one judge's scorecard away from getting cut from the UFC. Would have been his third loss in a row against Kyle Machado got the split decision nod. Now you mentioned two-fight win streak. Most intriguing stat here to me has to be Habero's 10-inch reach advantage. And considering
Starting point is 00:40:19 he's such a big underdog, that's kind of tempting. But Mersikadov lands twice as often as he gets hit, and you mentioned Habero gets hit more often than he lands. So all signs here do point to Mersikanov, but I don't like the price. I'm staying away from the money line. I actually love the over-wereux. I actually love the over one and a half here at plus money plus one 30 merzikanoff's hit it in all four of his ufc fights and hiberos hit it in two of his last three so you're right jett it probably ends with a merzikanov KO but as long as it happens seven and a half minutes or so into this fight i'm i'm cool with it i'm fine with i'm fine with anything as long as merzikanov wins uh at this point frankly but uh godspeed because brinson abero you're going to be sweating that
Starting point is 00:41:06 Every time Hubero's hands are by his ankles and Mersikanov's swinging one at him, it's going to be an electric seven and a half minutes for you. At least it'll be absolutely for sure. If it doesn't hit, at least it'll be an exciting fight, you have to think, right? Like, yes. Look, you're talking to the man who was the progenitor of heavyweight overs. I understand just wanting to feel alive out there with a risky bet. And I think you've got that. It's funny of heavyweight.
Starting point is 00:41:34 I literally was just going to do the same transaction. It's a perfect transition because speaking of heavyweight overs, Sergei Spivak taking on Waldo Cortez-A-Costa in a top-15 heavyweight matchup because this weight class is terrible. Spivak, minus 140 betting favorite WCA plus 120 with the comeback. Spivak three and two over his past five. The TK lost to Jailton Al-MATA back in January's most recent effort. Cortez-A cost on a four-fight win streak, which got him ranked, though,
Starting point is 00:42:04 most recent one was a knockout win over career light heavyweight Ryan Spann, who moved up to heavyweight. That just happened in March, so he's staying at salsa boy staying active. I also have very clear thoughts about this fight, but Luke, what are your thoughts about this fight? I mean, I think we can allude to the same thoughts, but Spivakman and his last 10 fights, he's only lost to the last two heavyweight interim champions and the fight you mentioned, Jalton Almeida, not bad losses whatsoever. Cortez Acosta on that four-fight win streak.
Starting point is 00:42:34 or yeah four-fight win streak won six of his seven UFC fights but four of those wins came to guys with losing records in the UFC so you know he's not really fighting anyone but is there anyone at heavyweight yeah no not really I think the biggest X factor here is actually going to be the wrestling from Spivak he averages almost five takedowns per 15 minutes and Cortez Acosta was taken down three times in his lone UFC loss if he can't get the takedown we may get lulled into another inevitable Cortez Acosta decision I know he did get a finish against Ryan span in his last fight, but he is literally who comes to my mind when I hear heavyweight overs. Oh, yeah. Salsa boy just pops up in my face. Yeah. So like for Hill forever being over two and a half guy, uh, Spivak known as a finisher, but Cortez-A-Cost and never been finished.
Starting point is 00:43:19 So either way, I could see this one going along. They actually set it at one and a half, I guess because Spivoc's in this fight as well, but over one and a half minus 160 right now. I'm definitely taking that in a parlay. And I really don't think that's a bad price at all. I don't think that's a terrible. I am on Spivak. I think Spivak's good.
Starting point is 00:43:38 I think people don't really recognize it because his losses are so bad. Like when he loses, he dies. But he rarely loses. To your point, he lost a Cyril Ghan, former interim champion, you know, at worst, like a top five or heavyweight. Tom Aspinall, heavyweight champion. Jelton Al-Meda, a guy I think everybody fairly universally acknowledges in one of the five best heavyweights probably should be fighting for a belt.
Starting point is 00:44:04 very, very soon. And then his other loss, you know, he lost to Marcine Tibera, but he just avenged that last summer. And then Walt Harris in one of his early fights, right? Like this, I think that he is just a rock solid heavyweight that because his losses are so memorable, people forget. And stylistically, I think this should be a breeze for him. Cortez-A-Cost is not a great defensive wrestler, as you point out.
Starting point is 00:44:29 I think Spivac gets him down. I think he's got a real chance to be the first to finish, Chwaldo Cortez-A-Costa as well. So I'm on the Spivak money line. I took a little flyer on the Spivak by submission because plus 400, that seems like a tasty enough number to throw a little bit and see what happens. I like that. I might tell you on that.
Starting point is 00:44:48 It's just a little bit of fun, but regular unit on Spivac, I really like his chances on Saturday. That brings us to the final mid-prelim fight of the evening. Chaos Williams versus Andreas Gustafson and a welterweight content. test Williams minus minus 190 Gustafson plus 165 Williams coming out the submission loss to Gabriel Bonfin back in February whilst Gustafson making his USC debut. Luke, that's a bit of a Frankenstein fight here. Gustafsson was supposed to fight last week.
Starting point is 00:45:20 Originally, Chavon Giles, that was replaced by Jeremiah Wells. Both fights fell apart. Gustafsson got bumped to this week. Cass Williams was always supposed to fight this week, but this is now his third opponent, started with Euros Medich. then it became Albert Terevoisian, and now the Gustafson fight happened in the past week.
Starting point is 00:45:38 How are you feeling about Gustafs making his promotional debut, an underdog Chaos Williams, sort of, how you see in this Waterway clash? I could, this has the potential to be a banger, dude. Like, we know Chaos has scary CO power, and Gustafson himself has eight KOs in 11
Starting point is 00:45:54 pro wins, but like, I actually think this also could be a dud. Chaos was taken down four times in his last fight, and Gustafson got two takedowns in his contender series fight, factor in the limited time to game plan for each other, as you mentioned, with all the opponent swaps. I could see them both playing it a little safer here.
Starting point is 00:46:13 I do think there's a lot of value on Gustafson at plus 170, but I find it really hard to trust UFC debutants, especially in 2025. Chaos has only also lost to like pretty legit guys, Gabriel Bonfim, Randy Brown, Michelle Pareda. I may throw a little something on Gustafson, but I am going to be taking the over one and a half at minus 155 in a parley. Chaos is hit it in six of his last seven, and Gustafson is hit it in two of his last four.
Starting point is 00:46:42 I like that over one and a half. I think we read this the same way, because I am actually taking the splash on Gustafson. Got him at plus 172. I'm not a huge fan in general of betting UFC debutants, especially if they aren't fighters I'm in love with. I don't think Gustafin is like some incredible prospect coming off Contender series.
Starting point is 00:47:01 he's already well into his 30s, which is part of the problem. But he is a big, powerful dude and very solid wrestling, and we know that that can have a lot of success against Chaos Williams. He's just scrappy. I think he's going to come in. He's going to shoot a bunch of takedowns. And, you know, Bomb Feme took Chaos Williams down a whole bunch. I think And Andreas Gustafsson is going to do so as well.
Starting point is 00:47:24 And so I think you're getting a really nice price at Plus 170 on him. You're getting that price because Gustafson is making his dad. debut and all of the short notice changes, etc. But do take some comfort that he was already preparing to fight, just bump back a week. Stylistic changes certainly, but I do think that he can just look at this and say, I'll go in, I'll blast some doubles, and I should be able to get my hand raised. So plus 172 on Andreas Gustafson. And that takes us to the early prelims with a fight that might be the most fun fight on the card somehow.
Starting point is 00:47:58 Ariani to Silva taking on Wang Song. in a women's flyweight contest. Song, back to being a gigantic betting favorite because she always is minus 430. Ariane De Silva plus 360. De Silva on a two-fight losing streak submitted by Jasmine Jasidavish back in November. Song, unanimous decision went over Bruno Brazil, her most recent timeout. Luke, these are really big odds for Wang Song, a woman who is one of. I'm trying to remember the exact number.
Starting point is 00:48:28 was responsible for the biggest upset loss in like modern history. It's like number three all time. I was just going to say, I think it's like number three or four. It's like number three or number four all time. That might have changed because the Peyton Talbot loss was also just like a massive upset, but like her loss to Gabriella Fernandez is one of the biggest mathematical upsets ever. And the bookmakers are still like, screw it, let's put her as a minus 400.
Starting point is 00:48:56 I mean, she still looked good last time against Bruno Brazil. No, she didn't get another knockout finish, but like, I understand the price on her. Like, this is her fight to lose. If it stays standing, I favor her striking, not to mention De Silva's been K-O'd four times before, and I mentioned Kong won her UFC debut by Kio. Also, De Silva was taken down in six of her seven UFC losses, so there is a clear path to beat her, and while Kong is definitely more known for her crisp striking, she did get two takedowns in her last fight and she herself has 100% takedown defense so if this fight ends up
Starting point is 00:49:30 on the ground i actually see kong controlling the action no props have dropped yet did you notice that jed i'm not seeing any props for this fight yeah so i probably when they dropped depending on price i'm thinking either cong by k o con by decision or the over two and a half if it's plus money because in her last fight they actually had it at plus money i don't know if they'll do that again but i'd be tempted into that. Yeah, I think she's going to win. I think she shouldn't be this big a betting favorite because we just, we have seen her lose to worse talent than Ariana Lipski.
Starting point is 00:50:05 But I do think she's going to win because it's going to be a striking affair and Wang Song is a very good striker. You know, queen of violence is scrappy, but I suspect Wang Song will win. And I just straight up did something dumb because I wanted to. I don't recommend people do this, but when I mentioned earlier, I've got a three-leg parlay. I don't love the price at Wang Song, like, as I've mentioned many times at this point, still threw in this parlor with a thousand up Merzacanov and one more leg, uh, because I was just looking to put a parlay together and there weren't a lot of things like that I was like super
Starting point is 00:50:38 pumped about. So I did it. I don't think it's smart, but I did it. Hopefully it'll work out anyway. Not getting a great price, but we are, we're committed to it. So Wang Song, uh, is leg two of the parlay. We'll talk about leg three in just a moment here as we have a few couple fights left to go. Next one up is a lightweight contest. Mark Ladeghs taking on Mark Choyensky. Maderos, minus 245, Choyensky, hope I'm saying that right, plus 200. Maderos, 2 and O in the O.C, split decision win over Austin Hubbard back in March. I do think that he deserved to win that splitie, by the way. Choyinsky making his UCD debut in Anthony Pettis lightweight champion, ate no professional record.
Starting point is 00:51:25 Maderos also was supposed to fight last week, same as Andreas Gustafson. He was supposed to fight Balaji Oki. He would drew due to the flu, got bumped back a week, now stepping in, now taking on Troinsky, who's stepping in, who was scheduled to fight next week at Anthony Pettis' fight promotion in a believe a welterweight contest, actually, but got his UFC call, made the move over. I will not bear the lead here, Luke, and then I'll, I'll pull. pull back and let you run point here. I don't have any action.
Starting point is 00:51:52 I do like Maderos as a prospect. I thought very highly of him coming off season 20, whatever, 20, 23 season of Contender series, but I don't know anything about Trojansky. I did not have time to look him up.
Starting point is 00:52:03 And I was just like, it's fine if I don't, uh, to like really watch some tape on him. And more to the point, concerned about the flu, right? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:52:11 You don't, in my experience, the flu, it's not like, ah, I'm better now and I will be totally okay a week later. Yeah, maybe Mederos was almost,
Starting point is 00:52:20 done with it and decided he could bump it back. I don't know the rules there, but too many unknowns, too many variables. I just have no action here. I totally understand every point you just made. I mean, the flu situation, you mentioned he beat Austin Hubbard in that split decision. It was close. Austin Hubbard's four and seven in the UFC. And he also beat Landon Quinoes, who got cut from the UFC after going winless.
Starting point is 00:52:42 So, like, Maderos, not the most reassuring UFC record to back this up. Just like you, I'm not too familiar with Chowinski. I did as much research as I could. Didn't watch any tape. Majority of his wins come by sub. Maderos was taken down in both of his UFC fights. I don't know if Chowinski can get him down, but if he can, you know, maybe Maderos is in trouble on the ground.
Starting point is 00:53:03 I do think there could be value on Chowinski, but at the same time, back to my point, hate trusting a debutante. I will instead be taking the over two and a half minus 175 in a parlay. Maderos has hit it in five of his last seven, including both of his UFC fights. and Chowinski has hit it twice in his eight pro fights, but it did happen two fights ago for whatever that's worth. I will trust all of your breakdown here, because you did more look into Chisky than I did.
Starting point is 00:53:34 I did a very cursory, and I was like, I don't have the time to watch this man's tape. I already have so much action on this card. I think it'll be okay if I skip one. I don't feel bad about it. If you're a listener home, and I just lost you as a longtime listener, I'm sorry, but I don't actually apologize.
Starting point is 00:53:52 I apologize for nothing for not going to watch the tape on the Anthony Pettis Fighting Championship. That takes us to our penultimate fight to discuss a featherweight contest. It sure is a fight that's happening. Jekka Sargi taking on Jusang Yu, Jekka, 1 and 2 in the promotions, submitted by Weston Wilson a year ago. You making his UC debut. Jekka is the first Indonesian fighter, so fun fact there. And he had a daughter last year, so maybe now he's got that dad strength. That being said, massive underdog plus 360.
Starting point is 00:54:30 You as a betting favorite minus 470. You don't often see a UC debutante, nearly a minus 500 favorite. Gotta say, not sure that it's wrong, though, here, frankly, Luke. Can't argue with the odds makers on this one. How about you? agree and back to like the madeiros truinsky fight this was the fight i had the most trouble i was like oh my god this fight i got to come up with a bet for this fight uh saragi he's killer be killed in the ufc duty went one and two all three ending within two rounds you is obviously unproven on this level
Starting point is 00:55:04 but at the same time saragy's lone win in the ufc came to lucas alexander who got cut from the ufc and both of his losses also came to guys no longer in the ufc saragy has been subbed three times by three different submissions, which I think is important because I feel like it proves you really know nothing on the ground. You're getting caught in all these different subs. You never lost the fight before, so I do want to lean with him, but this price does seem a little high, even if it's somewhat justified. I'm going to take fight does not go the distance at minus 200 in a parlay, four of use, eight pro fights of knock on the distance, and 17 of Saragi's 18 pro fights of knock on the distance. That's 81% combined.
Starting point is 00:55:46 Yeah, I just can't bet it. Again, I think these odds are fine, but it's also would be insane to lay this price on you. Yeah. And so I just pass. Also, you know, not for nothing. Sergi's only fought one Korean fighter and he was victorious. So maybe he's got that going for him. Maybe that's in the back pocket.
Starting point is 00:56:08 Who knows? But I will not be betting this, which leads you to understand that I do have a bet on the first fight of the evening that we will be talking. about a lightweight contest between Quillen Salkild and Yannal-A-Schmuz. Quillen, minus 4.55, the comeback on our Shmooz plus 350. Quillen, a contender series guy 1-0 in the promotion. 19th second knockout win over Anshul Jubli back in February. Yannalashmuz, 2 and 1 in the U.C. Unanimous decision win over Trevor Peak in September.
Starting point is 00:56:42 I will finish us off and then let you bring us home here, Luke, because very quickly, this is the final leg of my parlay sadly I didn't get the great price of minus 455 for him I got quillin at minus 480 he's a competent well-rounded fighter he's not like a great athlete but he's significantly bigger than you know our schmuz I just think he's a better fighter than y'all
Starting point is 00:57:02 I don't love this but I wanted to parlay I put a parley together Mersikanov's song Salkild minus 130 pays out you parlay those three together and that is what I did so Luke final fight we are speaking about first fight of the evening on Saturday. How do you see it going? I mean, I'm with you 100% on here. Sal killed, he got nine takedowns in that contender
Starting point is 00:57:23 series fight. Ashmoos was taken down twice in his lone UFC loss. Ashmoos himself, though, did get nine takedowns in his last fight against Trevor Peek, but Trevor Peek has literally been taken down by all six guys he's fought under the Zoufa Banner. Like literally every opponent has taken him down. Sal Kild also going to have a six inch reach advantage here, and Ashmoos gets hit more often, or twice is often than he lands. I think Sal Kil could have the wrestling and striking advantage, but I see him wrestling his way to a unanimous decision. I'm going to be taking him by decision,
Starting point is 00:57:55 waiting to see if the line goes down at all. It's minus 120 right now. I was hoping to get it as a plus money single, but we'll wait and see. And ladies and gentlemen, that does it for UFC 316. Saturday, Newark, New Jersey Prudential Center. And then, Luke, it is the road to my homeland,
Starting point is 00:58:14 and UFC Atlanta next week, State Farm Arena, Camaro Usman, Joaquin, Buckley, Rosnam Unis, Miranda Maverick. Honestly, an okay fight car. I wouldn't say it's amazing, but it's not a bad one. I'm excited. It'll be the first UFC event I've been to in quite some time. I don't remember the last one I went to, honestly. I have to look that up.
Starting point is 00:58:33 So excited to be there to do the whole thing. Probably, I mean, hopefully the climb will still be going, but I don't think we'll be climbing next week because, you know, being in Media Row and shitting bricks over my $4,000 bet on Walking Buckley to beat Kamar Usman or whatever. That doesn't seem like a good look. So,
Starting point is 00:58:52 hopefully it'll go on. Luke, tell the people where they can find you and we'll get on out of here. You guys can follow me on YouTube, Maincar Minute. I do weekly bet breakdowns. They're out right now and I do watch longs every Saturday for the fight nights. I'm also on morning combat, 11 a.m. Mondays
Starting point is 00:59:09 and Fridays. We just drop merch too for morning combat, so go cop that. MorningCombat. Shop. Love morning combat. Saw the merch. Excited to get involved in the merch game here. Oh, that would be
Starting point is 00:59:23 terrific. Y'all know where I'm at. And this Saturday, UFC 316, we've got a watch party going on. Me and Mike Heck, got something special playing. That'll be a good time.
Starting point is 00:59:34 Thank you all for listening and see you next week for UFC Atlanta. Love y'all.

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