MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Sean Strickland Do It Again And Upset Khamzat Chimaev At UFC 328?

Episode Date: May 6, 2026

Khamzat Chimaev is set to make the first defense of his UFC middleweight title. This Saturday, the UFC returns to Newark, NJ for UFC 328, headlined by a pair of major title fights. In the main event, Khamzat Chimaev defends his newly-won middleweight title against former champion Sean Strickland, and in the co-main event, new flyweight champion Joshua Van makes the first defense if his belt against Tatsuro Taira. Will both new champions retain their titles or will new clood continue to reign? No Bets Barred is here to tell you. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by Billy Ward of The Action Network to dive into all things UFC 328. Topics discussed include if Strickland has a chance to pull off another upset, whether the odds are right in Van vs. Taira, which underdogs are live throughout the rest of the card, The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 155 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@JedKMeshew⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Follow Billy Ward: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@Psychoward586 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Follow on Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Read More: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard, and it is the big one. Maybe not the big one. I guess the big one probably is UFC White House, aka Freedom 250, when that happens in five weeks, six weeks, something like that. I don't even know. But I think this is the biggest card of the year thus far. I think it's the best card of the year thus far. It is UFC 328.

Hamzaa Tchamaya defending his middleweight title against former champion, Sean Strickland, plus a flyweight title fight between Joshua Van and Tatsura Tira, taking place along with, quite frankly, just a bunch of other great fights. And joining me this week to talk Turkey, as it were. You know him from the Action Network and his various superiors, on this podcast.

I'm speaking, of course, of the great Billy Ward. Billy, how are we doing? How excited are you for UFC 328? Yeah, pretty excited. I think it was you that I heard this from, you know, a couple weeks ago, but either 327 or 328 was going to be the best on paper card, depending on where the flyweight fight landed. So it is 328 as it is now.

I think that was your idea originally. I was. I'm robbing credit from somebody else at your great website, MMAFighting.com. But yeah, so I'm pretty excited for this one. for this one. I actually had pretty good time last week, both gambling, won most of my bets, and just entertainment

value of the 4 a.m. Eastern time card. So, flying high. Three winning weeks in a row, back in the green for the year. Yeah. Look at you go. I had a great time last week. I did not watch any of the early

prelims live. I did wake up in time to catch most of the main card. Though I had some other stuff going on, I wasn't like super locked into everything. And then I had to the boxing and stuff. I also had a very profitable week last week. Not quite back to even par here, but up to four units, a little under four units,

around the four. So just down two and some change for the year. Hopefully we can battle back, but I'm not enthusiastic about my opportunities this week because I have a lot of action. Last week, because that card was not very good on paper, I went into it, and I was like, you know, I'm just going to have fun. I'm going to get back to old school. I'm losing money. Who cares? Let's have fun.

A couple of heavyweight overs cashed. We had a great time. I mean, we didn't, but I did. Everybody else probably didn't enjoy as much as I did. And, you know, just getting back to basics. This week, I got a lot of bets, got a lot of dog action,

and we will get into it right now. Quick disclaimer. I don't know if you will end up If any of it will make it on to the final audio, I have hopeful that it won't. There's construction going on next door to me. And so I'm going to do my best to keep that limited. But if you hear it, apologies in advance. Going to be dealing with that for the next couple of weeks.

Here's what we're not going to be dealing with. We've got three days left of it. And then we don't ever have to do this again, Billy. The nonsense that is the main event that weekend. Horrific fight in the middleweight division is. Thomas Lichmah puts his belt to the line for the first time against Sean Strickland. As we record, this media day has just kicked off. We won't get to the big hitters until a little bit later in the afternoon, certainly.

But you can bet a lot that things are, I mean, things have already been a bit wonky when you've got these two dudes and the way they get down. It's the Sean Strickland Fight Week. A lot of stuff is going to happen over the next 48, 72 hours. And finally, we will get a fight on Saturday. and it is a very, very good one could be a good one. It's at least an interesting test for the new middleweight champion, who is a sizable betting favorite minus 550 at my book, Trontschikin plus 400.

The background on this one, Chimayev, of course, undefeated 9-0 in the UFC, coming off his title win over Drix Duplessi at 319 last summer, one of the more dominant yet uninspiring performances of all time. at no point in time did it ever look like he was going to lose. Also, at no point in time that it ever looked like we might be in danger of having some fun watching him fight. Sean Strickland coming off, not the biggest one of his career. Obviously, that will be Israel or this and you.

But, I mean, really a statement victory over Fluffy Hernandez in February that functionally got him here, right? Like he was out of the title picture. He had lost the DDP twice. He was just kind of a name. But Chameh takes over and Strickland puts on a great performance. performance calls out Chimaev and screw Nassar Dine Imov and everything that should be happening. Sean Strickland kick the shit out of a surging contender and is liked by the company. So here he goes.

And as much as it's a nonsense fight in that regard, I am genuinely probably more interested in the style matching between Strickland and Chichland than Chimayev and Imov. And so, Billy, let's just start here. I think we're probably going to spend the most time talking about this fight in the co-main event, the two best fights, even though the rest of this card is actually quite, quite strong. What are you looking at the most for this fight? Like, what do you, it's striker versus Grap, but we know, but like, is there something specific that you think dictates how this fight ends up playing out?

Yeah, you know, you mentioned it being a nonsense fight in terms of deservedness, and that's true. I will say the fact that he was able to not hit the ground at all against Anthony Hernandez, who has just grappled everyone into a corner over and over and over, kind of makes this fight seem more legitimate and more interesting than had Sean Strickland just, you know, jabbed and teeped another striker to death, like we've seen him do so many times. The big thing for me is Sean Strickland's ability to even defend,

take down attempts. What I mean by that is not stop the attempt when it comes, but prevent the attempt with his footwork and his jabs and his teeps and all that stuff. That's a skill that I don't think people talk about much because it doesn't show up in the stat sheet. his 76% takedown defense rate is solid. It's not elite, but very good. Fluffy only attempted one takedown on Strickland over two and a half rounds,

which that's crazy for Fluffy, right? He goes nuts with those. I think it's going to be an interesting matchup if Sean can keep the distance and use those long weapons to just limit how much Hamzot even gets the chance to shoot and run him into the cage, especially in the bigger octagon. You know, almost all of Strong's fights lately have been in the full-size cage, but that I think plays his style well where Hamzad, if you put him at the apex

and he's only got to take two steps to run you into the cage, you've got nowhere to go. I'm really intrigued by this. I think the other thing for Strickland is he doesn't really get held down. No one at middleweight has held him down for more than an average of like 20 seconds per takedown. And we know Hamzat's got some cardio issues. He looked fine against DDP,

but DDP didn't make him work really at all. So it's kind of easy to have good cardio if I just get to lay on top of you for the better part of 25 minutes and not do much. I'm torn here, and maybe you can help me with it. I want to just take a sprinkle on Strickland's money line at better than plus 400, but the plus 9.5 point spread is plus 195, plus 200, depending on where you look. That means he just needs to win one round and survive to the end.

Given Hamzat's complete disinterest in finishing DDP, I think that might be the smarter bet, but I kind of want to just take the sprinkle on the money line and put a quarter unit on it and have some fun. What do you think, Jed? I think I'm going to not be very helpful for you whatsoever because when after Strickland beat Fluffy my immediate thought was I'm pretty interested in watching him fight Homsop

like I just for there's a lot of stuff you said right like the fact that he denied Fluffy to even engage with him was like okay that's he's probably a more interesting test than he moved off just straight up right and even last week I was still like yeah trying to figure and then as I thought about this fight more. I watched a little bit more tape. I'm pretty sure Hamzaa Chmive is about to absolutely thump.

Sean Strickland and that will all just, like, everybody who has, again, I think for justifiable reasons, been like, hey, man, like, this is, this is interesting, you know, Hamzaa Chmive's got some cardio issues, right? Like, if Sean Strickland, pretty good at stop and takedowns, pretty good at not getting held down, you know, kick him in the belly a bunch, drag this into the, third, fourth, fifth round and let, you know, let that cardio take over. The takedowns will come less. Every time there's been a guy who's been able to keep Strickland or keep Chimaive on the feet, you know, your Gilbert Burns, your Kamau Usman's, those fights have gone a lot more difficult

for him. And so all of that totally makes sense to me. And then I look at it, I'm like, yeah, no. My total analysis of this fight is basically like, nah. Because, like, I think the thing about, like, the DDP fight is the, is, and this is weird, is the concerning fight to me. Because he was so disinterested in trying to hurt him. And that's simply something we've never seen from Hamzaa Tchamayev before, right? Like, his whole thing is that he is actively trying to hurt people. Ask Robert Wittaker's face how it feels to fight Hamzaa Tchamayev, right? But against DDP, he simply just got into undeniable positional advantage and held it.

I was like, I'm fine. Here, at no point did he ever really try. And maybe this is just like the most bozo way to read a fight. He totally is possible. But it was kind of just felt like in that fight, he was like, I just need to win. He didn't really have any animosity towards DDP, you know, like there had been some. How could you? Yeah, there'd been like some trash talk, but it wasn't really even like heated, you know, it was just like these are dudes who are about to fight each other trash talk.

And so he wasn't like motivated to hurt him. And it was like, I can't lose from here. Let me just get this belt and do this thing that I need to accomplish here. With Strickland, you know, it's like I think he wants to hurt Strickland in general, you know. And like, I think Fluffy Hernandez is one of. the great overachievers in this sport. Yeah. And that's awesome.

And I don't think we as a fan base credit stuff like that enough. The golf and athleticism between Fluffy Hernandez and Hamzat Shemayev is vast. And so like, yeah, some basic footwork and a big cage made it hard for Fluffy to get to Sean Strickland to even initiate takedowns. Hamzot's going to move at like 1.5 speed compared to Sean. Sean Strickland and just like dive on his ankle almost instantaneously. I think maybe Sean Strickland can can, you know, stuff a take down or two. Maybe he can scramble back to his feet.

But like, DDP is not remotely the level of athlete Hamzai is. We've seen, like we saw that. To me, that is like one of the bigger deciding points in that fight is like, yeah, this guy's a way better athlete than you. And he still took Strickland down a bunch. Now, he didn't control him, but DDP's not, like, the greatest positional control grappler. He really has, like, a big man grappling game. And that's not what, like, Chima, like, Chamaia's grappling game is not, like, I am just very strong. Like, he is a positionally dominant wizard.

I think he's just going to tackle him, move to his back, and choke him out. So much so, like, I kind of wanted to look at the over, like, the over one and a half. Because I was like, yeah, but I don't even, like, I don't have any prop that I feel good about here. maybe taking a sprinkle on a sub but you could probably guess where I'm going with it, Billy. Hamza's like Shamao's going to be McClemm. I think he's just going to run

Sean Strickland over and afterwards we're all going to be like, yeah, we probably should have seen that coming. Like we're all going to be like, we talked ourselves into this being more fun. He just, that's one of the three best guys in the world. And yeah, he's just really good, man.

Guess we're about to see what happens at Lay Heavyweight. No, that makes it sound of, I guess to reframe my question for my bet, Do you see a world where Strickland makes it to the end but doesn't win, right? Like, is there a situation where he loses the first two or three or three or four, you know, comes back in the fifth? Or is it either Strickland's going to finish him late or just get smoked early? I think it's possible Strickland won't finish him late, though I would tend to think that

if this goes to the fifth round, I'll be pretty surprised. It's because, like, by then, Strickland should be in full Strickland mode. Tremaya, I would have. assume if we're that late, Chima was gassed. Unless it's just that, you know, Chamey have had a kid and he's just an older person. And so now he's a less risk, you know, he's more risk averse and DDPs him.

Like, that could happen. But I just, I think that it is much more likely that either Chamey of wins early or somehow Strickland survives and wins late. All right. That's convinced me, especially because I only have to lay. less than a quarter unit to make one on the money line. The other fun comparison, or not fun.

Yeah, I would definitely go Strickland Money Line over the Sprite bet. If I was betting one of those, Strickland Money Lons the way I'd go. I'm kind of just a little bit worried. This is a Mokai of cop too, because remember those guys hated each other and tried to brawl and then it was just like the least action fight ever.

I mean, John Strickland is not going to be violent because he doesn't know how to be violent unless it just happens. he knows how to talk a big game and then jabbing teep a lot I there's a world where that happens I just really I think Chamaev is because I also think that like

outside of it everything else I do think Hamza Chamaev is a very smart fighter like he understands the game and to me it's you know I'm not a not a professional fighter not a coach whatever to me it just seems like very clearly the structures of this fight are very simple of like you want to actually try and finish and hurt this guy early because if you're in rounds four and five,

you're probably at a disadvantage. So like I just, I think we're looking at a Robert Whitaker style fight from Chamey. That is, that's where I come down on. I might look like a total bozo. If I do, I look,

Sean Stricklander's champion will never be my favorite thing. It will be undeniably cool if he pulls this off and has like, the two biggest upsets in the history of the middleweight division almost like just two totally insane what a strange strange career he would have so you've convinced me it'll be the money line for me you guys heard it here first look it would be it would be uneniably funny if it happens a little tragic but also quite funny uh let's move on down to the co main event of the evening

in my opinion, the best fight currently on the books. I said that last week about last week's main event, that fight has now happened. And so this, the Joshua Van Tatsura Tira fight, I think that was 1A, 1B with Carlos Protest, Jack Delamadalena. Now it is, in my opinion, the best fight that the UFC currently has scheduled. Couldn't be more excited for what we were supposed to get it last month at 327. Some sort of not an injury to Vann, but a delayed recovery from a prior injury.

They thought they'd be good in time. They wanted a little bit of extra time, so it got bumped a month. Josh Van Defense, his newly won flyweight title against Tatsura, Tyra. I believe, I didn't check this, but I'm like 99% sure. I'm as close to 100% sure as it possibly could be. Actually, never mind. I'm 100% sure. I'm going to really check this.

The first time a UFC title will be contested by two men born in the year 2000 or more recently. as Tetsu Retire and Josh Van are both just babies. They're just a baby. I tweeted that Monday, Jed. You stole that from me. Maybe I stole that from you. But I've also been saying for like four years that Tetsu Retire is going to be the first UFC champion born in the year 2000.

And then Joshua Van beat him to it via circumstance. So it was on the radar. It was on the radar that we are, look, I'm getting old. Everything that makes me feel old is on the radar. And 2000s babies fighting is a thing that makes me feel old. Joshua Van, you're betting underdog as the champion plus 150. To come back or Tatsura Tiber coming in is a minus 185 favorite. Van on a six-fight win streak.

Obviously won the belt at 323 in December. TKO win over Alessandro Pantoja. Of course, there's an asterisk. There's context. however you want to phrase it. A valid win, but certainly a weird one. And I do wish Josh Fan would quit acting like it was a great win. I know that that's, you know, fighters or fighters, but like, you're not doing yourself any favors by being like, I broke his arm.

Like, yeah, you did. Read the room. But, like, sometimes you can just be like, yeah, man, I'll fight him again. And I'll beat him like it could be okay. Anyway, he's on a six-fight win streak. Tyra is only on a two-fight winning streak, actually. But TKOed multiple-time champion, Brandon Moreno, also at 323 in December. Best performance of his career, certainly.

Bill, let me ask you this question. Are you surprised by these odds? Are you surprised that Tetsu Retire is the favorite? I am. And, you know, I had this one in my luck ratings as one of the early bets I was making. And it was kind of a, if we get more than plus 120 on either side, I think I would take it kind of bets. but the only thing that gives me a little bit of pause is if that injury or there is something off with Van that caused the delay, does that explain why the odds are what they are? Because otherwise, I would make this pretty much a pick-um.

I mean, both guys have one loss in the UFC. They bounce back from it well. I think, you know, Van probably has the better, well, I know. I'm going back and forth with myself on the Pantosia. He needs to walk a middle ground, right? Because you don't need to apologize for it. It's not like he did anything wrong. You are the champion.

and but you're right in that like settle down you didn't be thrown this great champion by legitimate means i'm not saying like throw the belt away or you know you don't have to but you just don't you don't have to say anything about how it's about like yeah i broke his arm it's like i'm trying to remember somebody then like not to i think it was curtis blades and i could be slightly misquoting this so don't take this as gospel but it was like curtis blades was like Tom Aspinall broke his body on mine when at like in their first fight is like technically yes but no this is not I checked the leg kick and his shin snapped you know you he fell over and what caused it was his arm brace and that's you know again a valid

win justifiable but we we can live in reality here we don't have to lie to ourselves about this being the greatest win of your career. It's just not. Visit BetMGM Casino and check out the newest exclusive. The Price is Right Fortune Pick. BetMDM and GameSense remind you to play responsibly. 19 plus to wager. Ontario only.

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And I'm starting a brand new podcast. Wait, don't swipe away. It's called That Sounds Like a Lot. I'm going to start by breaking down whatever insanity is happening in the world. And then I'll sit down with a comedian or actor or writer or honestly, anyone who responds to my DMs. This is not the place to get the news, but it is a place to feel a little bit better about it. You can watch on YouTube or listen wherever you get your podcast.

That sounds like a lot. part of the Vox Media Podcast Network. Yeah, so, but to bring it all back together, I'm sorry, I caused that divergent here. I thought the Moreno stoppage was a little bit early, if I remember that one correctly. Like it was a little bit questionable for Tyra. And then that's- Like a hair. It was reasonable on rewatch, but in real time you felt like maybe give him a little bit more chance.

Yeah, it wasn't horrible. I'm not saying it's a robbery, but that's something that I'd like to see Brandon Moreno get the shot to come back from. And the Moreno's also looked bad for, you know, kind of an extended stretch at this point. So that win doesn't hold up as well as it otherwise would have. The big thing for me, though, is Van has very solid takedown defense and even better get-ups. And I don't see Tyra out striking him. Tyra's a good striker. This is not like a binary striker versus grapple matchup.

But Van puts out so much more volume and then also has better power that over a five-round fight, I think that sways the judges his way as long as it stays standing, even if he doesn't get a finish. and I don't see Tyra just starching him. I don't believe Tyra has any knockdowns. Oh, no, he knocked down some part. But he's not, you know, some huge power puncher. And Van moves really well, doesn't get hit a lot, other than when he got tired and chinned by Charles Johnson.

But getting surprise-caoed by Charles Johnson is how you make your way to the top of the flyweight rank. So how you prove that you're the best flyway in the world. Right, yeah. So, like, that's just, that's, you know, like the, what's it called the coming of age? I say it's a right of passage. There you go. That's the word. I was like, we're the right of passage in the flyweight division. So that doesn't count. But yeah, plus 145 or so, I'm in on Van. I think I would take Tyra if he were plus 145 to be clear. But I think there's a very close fight where if Tyra can get some takedowns and win some rounds that way, great.

He'll probably get the fight. But I believe Van's output and just volume on the feet will sway the judges his way if it doesn't end early. Yeah, you and I are pretty, pretty walked in on this one, man. I think if these odds were flipped, I would also feel the same. You know, I would bet Tutsu or Tahra at plus 150. I don't think either man should be this big a favorite or this big a dog. I do wonder if the lingering van injury concerns is playing a part in this line. You know, he's definitely a little bit smaller in Tutsu or Tira. But everything you said, right, like I think Van can minimize the effectiveness of Taira's grappling.

That's really the question on offer. Yeah. Because, you know, if they spend 25 minutes on the feet, Tyra probably doesn't get blown out. But he probably loses very comfortably. He's coming along as a striker and maybe has like more single shot power than Van does. But hands are way are not nearly as fast. He doesn't work in combination as well.

Like if you told me they're going to kickbox for 25 minutes, I would very, very comfortably pick Josh Van. And Van's been so scrambling. I think Tyra was going to have to consolidate positions. So he's going to have to get takedowns into backtakes, right? Like not just get takedowns because Van will just, he's spring-loaded. He pops right back up. And so, you know, I was just surprised to see the odds here.

Like I think Tetsuotire is a much better fighter than Ray Saruya. But the general texture of the matchup is not that dissimilar. and Joshman beat their shit out of race Fourier, you know, like that fight wasn't 30, 27s across the board. Both men are super young, and so that also adds a variable here of like, young fighters just tend to get better at

wildly different rates than other people. Like, we don't know what they'll be like this time out. Because straight up, Tatsu and Tyra's performance against Brandon Marano stoppage, questionable or whatever, it's not a robbery, not an awful stoppage. but like maybe a hair early. That performance was so out of pocket given like the very difficult fight he had against

Brandon Royval that was a split decision but by no mean should have been a split like he just lost that fight, you know, fought well but lost that fight beats Jungsung Park. Okay, sure. But like it was so beyond anything we'd seen from him to just like big brother Brandon Moreno. And maybe that's a little bit Brandon Moreno's on the decline, you know, as you said. But like you just, you never know. These dudes, when you're 23, you might just like finish puberty or whatever and suddenly be way better in three.

Like that's just how being a young athlete works like this. And so I love this fight. I'm super excited for it. I am on Josh Van. I got him a plus 150. Purely a value bet. I just, I think this should be lined very close. And so I would take it on either side.

here's the other thing I was surprised about, Billy. And maybe this sort of gives the context that I was missing, as I thought about it, for like why the odds are what they are. Did you look at the over under on this fight? Looking at it right now, yeah, three and a half. I thought it would be much more likely to go to a decision than they're saying right now. Even the over one and a half is only a minus 350, which I really assumed would be like,

because it was when I was looking at climb bets. It's like, you know, the over one and a half, half is probably going to be minus 500 something minus 600 it's minus 350 vans hit that over in nine of his 10 UFC fights the only one he hasn't hit that over in is the pantosia injury right like that's uh and then you get to the minus three and a half range and it's basically pick a mods for that like that is i was surprised and so i i also took a i was debating doing a double climb this week with the over over one and a half at minus 350 uh and then i I ultimately just decided that I don't want it.

I want to enjoy this fight a lot more than having to be stressed of like, can this just make it seven minutes? Tatsu, I like Josh fan, but Tatsu, Tatsura has been one of my boys for a while. And so, like,

if he grabs the back and chokes him out, I want to be happy about that immediately. And so I just, I think that early stoppage is good. If it's early, it's going to be Taira. Almost certainly Tire has never even stopped. So, like,

if maybe that's why the odds are, what they are. They just think Tyra was going to get the back and choke him. But I did just take a bet on the over three and a half because I won't care if that bet loses. And that feels like a good value bet to me. Yeah, I like that too. I was kind of surprised as I was looking at it. I will say psychologically, two climb bets in the last two fights of the night is probably a bad move. Like you just don't need that stress looming over you all night. And the thing is about the Shama, if I was talking with A.K. Lee about this earlier today. Chimaev is I won't that will not be a sweat I will know almost immediately if I'm winning or losing right and like that's the thing you don't want to be just like oh is he going to get there's like Jamaya gets early easy takedowns I've won and if he doesn't I've lost it'll just take me 25 minutes for the bullet to find its way home you know so like that's I can make my peace I've jumped out of the airplane there is no parachute I'll land when I land and that'll be it so I don't want to have to be it so I don't want to have to be be stressing on the over in a half here. There were a couple of others potential climb actions. I guess still could be if you talked me into them, but

let's get to them because we've talked, you know, we've spent 25 minutes talking about the two big fights. That's good. The rest of this card's still pretty good and we've got a ways to go. As we move to the feature bout of the evening, can't believe I'm about to say this, Billy. A good heavyweight fight.

Like a genuinely interesting heavyweight matchup is Alexander Volkov takes on Waldo Cortezocosta. Volkov minus 1,80. WCA plus 145. Both fighters are four and one over their last five. Volkov arguably could be five and O, though I thought he beat gone, but I scored the Almeida fight for Almeida.

Don't think it's a robbery. Yeah. But could be five and O right now. Probably is actually the dude who should be fighting Alex Pereira for the interim heavyweight belt. Alas, here we are. Coming off the, as I mentioned, the split decision win over Jelton Almeida at 321 last October.

WCA, one of the breakout fighters of last year. You're currently riding a three-fight winning streak, TKO Derek Lewis in January at UFC 324. Billy, how do you feel about this heavyweight fight? Yeah, it's interesting. I'm with you that Almeida, like, should have won the fight, but it felt like the judges just decided to draw the line in the sand on Jailton Almeida. We're not going to reward you again. We're not doing this. We're just not doing this anymore.

Yeah, like, I don't know if someone put a call in or they just all hive-minded it of like, no, that's not how this is going to work. So that was interesting. I also thought he beat Cyril Gan, to your point. I was kind of surprised here that the under two and a half is as high as plus 170. I get the logic because Volkov goes to a decision or not. But Salca Boy is knocked out his last three opponents.

Yeah, four of the five on his last, four of his last five wins, sorry, mumbled that one. And it feels like Volkov is either going to get a taked or he's going to get Salsa Boyd, where he just gets a ton of volume in his face and eventually gets overwhelmed and falls down. So I am taking the under on this one. It seems like there's been a little bit of a market over-correction to the heavyweight overs thing. And the joke was last year when we went like three months without a heavyweight finish that had been Waldo Cortez-A-Costa who had the most recent one. So he's a guy I think who's going to decide things earlier or not. I don't believe he's been finished in the UFC, but a grappler like Wolkov,

getting on top of him. Not that Volkov's a great grappler, but I think he's a considerably better grappler than pretty much everyone salsa boy has fought, right? So I think there's a fairly binary outcome. Yeah, I don't, I, it's sort of my breakdowns,

like, is Volkov gonna just wrestle? We've seen him do it. He should. He did it against Gone, you know? I'm like, this isn't a dissimilar matchup to the Gone one. And so, like, yeah, like, he definitely should. Maybe you will. I was surprised at how, because Volkov's enormous, but he actually doesn't have that huge of a physical edge against WCA.

He thinks a couple inches taller and a couple inches in reach, but not like dwarfing him. And so the question is purely, is Volkov going to wrestle? And I'm not sure. And so I ultimately settled on a bet that I don't know that it is a smart bet, but feels right to me. I'm taking Walter Cortez-Coste as an underdog, you know, plus 145. I think there's a lot of value in that line. And if Volkov doesn't wrestle him, I do. I think exactly what you said.

Volkov, WCA is just going to put volume in his face. WCA is super durable, never really been chinned. This is Volkov's 51st fight. Like, that's just a lot of fights, you know? And, you know, it's just who didn't look incredible in his last fight against Elmada, very different styles, obviously. But give me the young guy on a heater. right now versus the dude making the walk for the 50 first time just kind of kind of feels like

i'm getting some underdog value with wca here yeah i think i conceptually agree with that but with the under two and a half being 30 cents better i'd rather have i think most of waldo's wind condition is a finish at some point just from volume and damage so i like what you're saying but i think the better price is enough to tilt me i will also say i was shocked at how confident they are in the heavyweight over here because I wanted to bring, I brought heavywood over his back last week. I was ready to run it again. I was like, I'm not laying, I'm not laying this number. I'm not laying 500 on a heavy over.

That can suck it. Yeah, there's been an overcorrection to say the least in the market. They did last week. I'm spooked. We move on to the welterweight division. Another banger man, Sean Brady taking on Joaquin Buckley, Brady minus 160, Buckley plus 130 as the dog. Brady three and two of his last five coming off the TKO loss to Michael Moore.

Rale is at 322 in November. Buckley, meanwhile, form one of his last five is coming in off a loss to Kamal Usman at Atlanta in June. So I don't really know what this fight means. You know, like, I guess this is a loser leaves town matchup as far as being a genuine, well, like in the Walterway title mix. But I don't know that the winner gains too much, but Billy, who do you think is going to be that winner? I'm leaning towards Brady, but I'm not confident enough to bet it with what the money line is.

They both just looked so bad in their last fight. And they both kind of fought like a lesser, or not lesser, but a similar fighter to who they're facing this time. Right. So Brady fought an explosive athletic striker who just beat the brakes off him. And Buckley fought a grappler in Usman who took him down and controlled him pretty easily the whole time. And now they're getting each other. And it feels like we're kind of doing that matchup on both sides. again to some degree.

I think Brady probably gets the take down here. I'm just worried that Buckley finds his chin early and finish them. And Buckley's not a bad wrestler. I didn't think Kamara Usman was going to have a shot at taking Buckley down with no knees or whatever Usman's got left. Which makes you feel like if it goes long at all, there's perhaps a live betting opportunity on Brady or you could do a Brady and over SGP. Same thing.

If you like the Buckley side, you can do that in the under. But I think at least for now I probably aren't not going to. going to have anything pre-fight on this? Oh, I think we might have a little bit of a different read here because I think there's a live betting opportunity on Buckley if you're so inclined.

So if you go back and watch the Usman fight, Buckley basically sucked with stopping takedowns until the later rounds when he started to have a lot more success actually keeping Camaro. Like, you know, that fifth round, Usman was in survival mode because Buckley finally stuffed a bunch of

takedowns. he should be better defending takedowns than he is him giving up a bunch to kamar oosman was really like yikes moment for me yeah because sean brady not a great chin if you can stuff his takedowns you're probably going to beat him that has just been what the truth of of he is a past fail test as far as defensive wrestling goes but he's really good at wrestling in general you know like michael morales is awesome like it's michael morales like i don't it's fine um Brady is mostly just taking people down, just hostles him down,

and I think he's a better offensive wrestler than Kamar Usman. And so I have a lot of confidence in Brady to get takedowns early. The question is if he doesn't get a finish, can Buckley catch him later, right? And I am not certain about how that goes.

But the deciding factor for me was a thing I was saying about Buckley, and everyone was. Like, this wasn't just me saying this, but like everybody was talking about Buckley's Windstreet at Walterway. I'm like, it's pretty smoke and mirrorsy, right?

Like he's on this great run. He'd run six in a row or whatever it was. But even at the time, we're like, okay, Andre Fialho, sure. Are you fine? Alex Morono? Sure. The ghost of Vicente Luque,

who is still winning fights, which I don't understand, but like everyone has agreed that Vizentee Lukie's been washed for years. There's Sultan Ruzabayev, okay. the 40-year-old Stephen Wonderboy Thompson, 40-year-old Colby. He fought a bunch of old washed dudes. And then we were all like, and he's getting another one with Usman, and he will beat him.

And then he didn't. And so it's like, I don't know, you're fighting Sean Brady, who is in his athletic prime and good at fighting. I'm going to back Sean Brady here. Maybe if Brady doesn't finish him early, I might take a sprinkle on a Buckley-K-O in the third round or whatever. but I like Sean Brady's getting takedowns here and having a classic Sean Brady performance. All right, so then what do you think about Sean Brady laying the three and a half on the point spread

because that way, you know, if you're saying he probably needs a finish, that gets you to plus money. I think there's going to be some alternate point spreads later in the week. You've kind of convinced me of that too where he's either going to dominate or get knocked out. So if you look at the Brady side, get a little better price on it.

Fine with that. Also, no. Yeah, probably where I'll end up. I'm not on this, But there is a very obvious Sean Parley that can be made this week if you're, if you are so inclined. I am not, but it's out there. Last main card fight, lightweight contest, super weird fight.

Just super weird fight. Probably don't need to talk about it too much. King Green take it on Jeremy Stevens. King Green minus 325 Stevens plus 250 for Lil Heathen. Green's on two-fight win street. T.K.O. Daniel Zell-Huber in Mexico to definitively affirm that Daniel Zell Huber is my nemesis. Stevens mostly has fought in BKFC. He returned to the UFC in 2005 and lost.

And now we're doing... I'm sorry, yes, 2020, 25. He was fighting there in 2005 too long. Yeah, he was still doing there, but he returned 2025 and lost. And I don't understand it. We've got two men almost 41 who's like, still pretty relevant to this weight class. And the other is Jeremy Stevens, who's relevant to BKFC. but do I don't I don't get it uh I considered king green I'll just take the lead here

billy I considered king green for a parley and then ultimately or not a parley as a climb piece and ultimately he's going to win but I don't care I don't understand this fight and I don't want to be monetarily invested in it so this is one of a full pass on this fight for me I think green's a fine parley piece but I don't get it it's weird I'm out yeah I was thinking green is the restart my climb bet, which I tend to restart the climb whenever I'm back on with you. For real lucky, I'm continuing a climb the next time I come on, but that's exceedingly rare. The other thing I like green by finish at plus 175 or so, I think Mason Jones chose not to finish Jeremy Stevens in Iowa is kind of out of the goodness of his heart because he wasn't really

under any threat. Yeah, at least made sense of Stevens in Iowa. Like, I don't know why you see. I don't get this fight at all. But I believe that had Mason Jones really wanted him out of there, he would have made it. And King Green can still crack. So, yeah, if you want a more serious bet, I think Green plus 175 finish is a good sprinkle. Other than that, it's a climb piece.

We move on to the prelims now. And another fight, we just don't need to talk about too much. Monstrous favorite, a tabo go to a minus 1,000. Like, minus 1,800 at some books. He's just, the Vegas understands what's going on with this. this man for now. Aziz, plus 700 comeback.

Ateba is 4-0 in the UFC coming off a unanimous decision win over Andre Pulaev at 324 back in January. Diaz, one in the promotion and lost his debut to Ming-Ing dropped down to middleweight against Jordan Santos and

won a unanimous decision in March of 2025. So he's been out of the cage for quite some time as well. Gautier is too big a favor to be a I love, everybody knows I'm super high on Gautier. I can't be betting about minus a thousand. It looked, my book doesn't have prop bets down for this fight yet. It looked like by K.O. is in the minus 500, minus 570 range, something like that.

If you want to do your own climb, I think it could do a lot worse with that, but me, I'm passing. You know what you can do to get this climb started, Jed? And this is my original thought before we mentioned King Green is you can take a table of somebody that I used to know, Gautier, parlay him with Jordan Santos' opponent this week, Jimmy Soss, and that gets you to minus 475. So that is my lean on how I'm going to start the climb. I always do that out when I settled in on it. That was considered as well.

So. But it's not two steps of the climb. No, it's a one step on a plate. Both these guys together. But yeah. There are steps. Baby steps. Yeah.

Shout out to Sean Zerlo, my partner at Action Network podcast for the somebody that I used to know, nickname for Lativa. He really needs to work that in there. It's perfect. But yeah, those are my thoughts. If you just came out to it, that'd be great. That'd be even better. Someone's got to get on the horn.

But, yeah, I think that's a pretty safe couple of bets to make, given how this matchmaking has lined up. It's funny that they took the two guys that fought each other who are bad and put them both in the get-smashed matches, too. I enjoyed that. Man, I might just have to do that. I might just do Hamzot, Ataba, Jimmy Suss, and it's two steps on a climb instead of a three.

Yeah. probably going to end up doing it. Check back with him if I'm in the rest of the week. I'll let you know. But that seems pretty likely. He's going to kill Oz Diaz, and that's fine. You might have to do it now, though, because I think these lines are going to continue to swell. I can only assume that they will.

We move on to Heater. Somebody call out the sandworms because we've got a thumper on our hands. Joel Alvarez taken on Yaroslav, Amosov, Alvarez, plus 140, Amosov minus 175. Alvarez's four-fight win streak Inamson went over Vicente Lucca in October Amosov made his UFC debut in December submitted Neil Magny with an anaconda joke I love this fight

Billy I love this fight and I want to tell you in honor of last week when I just got back to my roots having fun just bed with my heart and my vibes I wanted to come in here and bet Joel Alvarez I wanted to do it because Joel Alvarez has been like my guy forever like for years I've been like

he's actually the most fun lightweight but he fights very sparingly and nobody and everyone just forgets about him and then people came around to it and then he moved to Welterweight and continued to not fight all often and so we've lost the best parts

of this man's career who is like kind of like a Carlos Condit reinvented in some aspects and he's just going to lose this fight is the problem like I want to bet my guy he's absolutely going to lose his fight. And so instead, I'm returning to my roots and having fun in another way,

which I will explain momentarily. But I am not betting my guy, Joel Alvarez. I hope he wins. He will not. Ambasov is going to tackle him. And Alvarez is not going to be able to sell them off his back. So I disagree. I think Alvarez has a shot here. I'm not saying he should be a favorite. Here's the thing that always frustrated me about Joel Alvarez is that he was a really good submission grappler who just refused to shoot on anyone. He just wouldn't do it, no matter what happened, even if that was his advantage. All of Amosov's submission, not all, most of them, most of his grappling success are like Anacondas and darses and stuff like that. That relies on you putting your neck in there and going for something offensively, which Joel Alvarez has proven time and time again.

He's not going to do. He'll just stand and trade with you. I think Alvarez can defend takedowns. He's got the reach and the length to kind of stay far away. I don't actually think of Amosov as like a great wrestler. He's a great submission grappler who can wrestle and looked really good wrestling, you know, in the PFL and other lesser organizations. And if this is a kickboxing match, I think we'd both favor Alvarez, correct? 100%.

My guy. So plus 150. Both guys weirdly have good, like, front head choke series is because they're both long and can just wrap their arms around you from anywhere. I think it'd be very dangerous for either man to shoot here because they're going to shoot themselves into some tough spots in terms of those Anacondas, darses, etc. Which then means maybe we get a kickboxing match that favors Joel Alvarez, give him to me at plus 155 or so. I desperately hope you're correct because I... I'm not even that big of a fan either.

Dude, I've loved Joel Alvarez. He's so fun to watch. And I remember, like, I'd been preaching Joel Alvarez for, like, years. And this was back when E.K.C. Lidden was still with the enemy fighting. And the joker close fight. I think Casey was still with us at Jackard. Maybe it was Elves Brenner. It might have been the Elsbrner fight instead.

Where afterwards we were doing a post show and Casey was just like, I get it now. He's just like, you've been talking about this dude forever and it's just like, yeah, I get it. I was like, yes, he's so fun. He's had 20, like, five fights and all of them are finishes. He's the most fun, dude. If he fought more than once every 18 months, everybody would love. of him. So I hope you're correct. I'm hoping now that he's not cutting 90 pounds

to make lightweight, we'll get a little bit more. It's only been six months since his last fight, so we're doing okay. It'd be awesome. I think he'd be great at Walterweight. I think this is great. I think Jaylen Turner should do the same and he might have a better career up here too. We move on

to the actual lightweight division and not the Welterweight division. As Grant Dawson takes on Matush Hrabeshki, plus 145 for Abeski, minus 180 for Grant Dawson. Both men coming in off losses. Dawson off the TK loss to Manuel Torres in December at 323. And Robeski coming in off the majority decision loss to Ludovic Klein at 321.

Billy, this is very simple for me. Rebeschi is also awesome. I've sung his praises. I'm not like a huge Robeschi fan, but just like he is a dude who's always in a scrap. And he sort of, to me, is kind of the one of the perfect examples of why, I always say lightweight. It's the best division in the sport because Breskes never been a top 15 guy. You know, he's always been sort of a top 25 guy for a very long time.

And every time out, you know you're going to get a banger. Like he is just, he is going to scrap. He can give anybody a tough fight even if he can't beat them all. I think he's going to lose to Grant Austin. And I think the tenor of this fight is the exact same as the tenor of the previous one. We've got one guy who's fun and exciting and one guy who's the fun police. And so the fun police parlay of Grant Dawson, Yaroslav Amasov, is in effect both men at minus 180, pays out a plus 142. That's how I'm having fun with these two fights, because they're not going to let me have fun by watching the two guys who are more fun.

Well, Jed, I hope you're double wrong because I am taking Rebecca here. Not straight up, though, by knockout at plus 275, and my logic here is pretty simple. If he's going to win, that's how, because he can't hang with Grant Dawson for 15 minutes. Grant Dawson doesn't have a great chin to put that kind of mildly. Rebetsky can grapple well enough, I think, to maybe keep this standing a little. And if he finds the chin, he's going to get it. So it's plus 275. His money line is plus 145.

Those should be the same number, effectively. Maybe not quite, but it should be like plus 145 plus 160. He ain't going to win no other way. So if you're giving me basically double the price on Rebetski by knockout, I'll take it. You want to get real funky? Make that a parlay with like under one and a half rounds, because it probably doesn't happen four minutes into the third round after he got taken down for the prior 12 minutes either.

So, yeah, I've got a lot of little sprinkles at big prices this week where I just need one or two of them to come through, and this will be one of them. You could also parley up Grant Alsmer, Sean Brady, for the guys who are real good at wrestling and not real good at getting punched in the face, parley. So that's also on offer out there. We move to the final fight of the mid prelimbs, a lightweight contest.

Jim Miller still doing the, the damn thing plus 250 jared gordon minus 325 miller you named decision lost of chase hooper at ufc three 14 not this most recent april but the one previous in 2025 has been out for a year gordon coming off at tk lost to rafa garcia at san antonio in september billy i will again take the lead here to say i'm here to have fun i don't know if there's anything more fun and betting on 48-year-old Jim Miller in his 47th fight. Jim Miller has had more fights than he's had years on this earth. And I will, you know, I even think, like,

Jared Gordon's probably too big a betting favorite, frankly. My $2.25 is a really big number. But I'm going to support Jim Miller. Let's, on his road to 50, if he's going to get to 50, he needs to get some wins. This feels like a winnable fight. Let's go, Jim Miller. I refuse to call you your stupid.

badass nickname. He's just got a fight like once every two years until UFC 400, so he can be on that one, too. That would be pretty wild. Honestly, then not putting him on the White House card feels offensive to me. But it's not a... It's not, but you still should put him on there. Yeah, you're probably right. Jared Gordon, not coming off of TKO loss to Rafah Garcia, is coming off of TKO

lost to that car that hit him like the day before the fight. Well, fair. For some reason, he's still fought. Fair point. Yeah, I think I'm with you. That's fine. Another little sprinkle on Jim Miller. Probably do that just to feel something during this fight because you're right.

That would be the better outcome. Nobody's going to be watching this fight rooting for Jared Gordon. No one's going to be like, I want Jared Gordon to have bad things happening. It was a perfectly fine young man, you know? Not a young man. He's old, too. I said, this is another fight where they're both born in the 80s. We got the final fight with the 2000.

That's the 80s matchup. Nobody wants him to win. So why fight that? Why not just have my money down where my rooting interest will be anyway? we move to the middleweight division for our early prelim section and the fight quality is now going to drop off. We had nine really good ones. Some other interesting stuff or interesting sides, but we're going to drop off. This, I think, is the last one that I would qualify as an outright solid.

Like, I'm genuinely invested and think this is a relevant fight. As Roman Koppelov takes on Marco Tullio, Koppelov plus 170, Tullio minus 210. Koppelov, though, riding a two-fight losing streak coming off the unanimous decision loss to Robocop, Gregory Rodriguez, at UFC 322 in November. Tullio, meanwhile, suffered his first UFC loss to Christian Leroy Duncan in November as well. Billy, how do you feel about this one? Where kind of you're going with on this middleweight contest? Yeah, I'm leaning toward Koppilov here.

I feel like the market or the general trend here is people think Tullio is just going to dominate him with his grappling. Tullio's going to dominate Coppulov with grappling, but like he barely ever gets taken down and does okay when he gets there other than against Fluffy Hernandez, just fought Grod and Coppulov was the one landing takedown. So I think it plus money, Capulov obviously has the kickboxing background. Got to take it. It's plus 160 or so. We'll see if we get a better price later in the week. Yeah, I'm also in Roman Coppola here, you know, plus 170 is a big number I think he's being a little

undervalued the two fight losing streak's never something you're confident in but how he's just way more proven fighter Tullio his losses are to good dudes right like Romacobalov's losses are the Robocop who we think we all think is I mean he is a top 15 rank guy but like

a very good fighter and then Paula Costa that loss is aging beautifully quite frankly whereas you know Tullio hasn't fought or beaten anybody the best guy he fought crushed him in CLD it wouldn't shock

me if Tullio wins this but I do think this is a price that I'm willing to take a value bet on Koppel off at so that's where I've gone we go to the film I'll have a full preview of that one up on Action Network after I dig into some deeper tape

so yeah look for that probably Friday look for the featherweight division for our next contest is Pat Sabatini takes on William. Go me. Sabatini on a three-fired win streak right now, which I did not realize until looking it up. Coming off a unanimous decision win over Chappi Mariskele at 322 in November. Go me, five and one in the UFC. A lot of splities, majorities, weirdness going on there,

but he is coming off a unanimous decision one over Robert Wuchala in September. Billy, how do you feel about this? Are you interested at all in the Pennsylvania parlor? of Pat Sabatini and Sean Brady. I was going to bring that up. You beat me to it. I met a lot of those guys in my pro career because I fought a ton in Pennsylvania.

Good folks. Yeah, I am a little bit, but what I'm actually going to do here is this fight to be won by split or majority decision at plus 400 because it is a William Go Me fight. That line just came up right before we hopped on here to record. So, yeah, that's how those fights end.

And with Sabatini wanting to grapple, go me wanting to kind of strike, just the perfect setup for the judges not to know what to do here i i mean i love that that's a that's a fun bet that's about we're having some fun with uh i don't know if this was smart i bet william go me um he's like way bigger than pat sabatini he's been taken down like a fair amount in his fights but he oddly has won all of those fights that he gets taken down a bunch in like i do think he's a better striker. And it's pretty clear Sabatini's going to be coming in to grapple.

And so if he can stay on the feet enough, I honestly, probably if he wins, it is behind a splitie. And so there, but plus 170, I was just, I was vibing when I was putting bets in earlier. I was like, yeah, let's go. And I took a couple shots that I did not need to do. This was one of them. Here we are, you know. I don't hate it.

He's going to get taken down, pop right back up, and land. like not that many strikes and we're all going to go I don't know who won that round. I don't know who won the round. That's going to be every round that fight. He'll be every round and he just needs to win two of the judges. I feel like however whatever the result

is when we're waiting for the judges to announce this one I'm going to feel okay holding a plus money ticket just like I got plus money could be either dude. That's value baby. You want to flip coins at plus 170 not at minus 210 100%. We go

the middleweight division, a fight we previously mentioned, and I don't think we'll have a lot to say. Passengor Susquev, aka Jimmy Suss. I believe we coined that nickname. Minus 650. I'm pretty sure that was me and Mike Heck. Minus 650 for Jimmy Suss, Jordan Santos, plus 475. Jimmy Suss, 2 and O in the O.C. knocked out Eric McConoco at 322 in November. Santos coming off a unanimous and went over Danny Barlow in October.

Odds are high for a reason, Billy. Jimbo going to get her done here. You could do the Jimmy Parlay if you want to do Jim Miller and Jimmy Suss as well. But I think I'm going to end up doing the adding Sistakiav and Tabor Gautier as one leg to the climb. I will say vaguely interested. Sucer Kayaev, I think, will win this on the feet instead of on the ground. Jordan Santos has been pretty good at defending takedowns. Sucer Krav sort of has that as a back pocket skill,

but I think he can win anywhere this fight competes anyway. That's the problem. Yeah, like he might not be able to take him down, but he might not even want to or need to. I feel like the real obvious parlay here is the Chechnya parlay between Jimmy Suss and his mentor, it's too obvious. It's too obvious.

I didn't mean to suggest something. But yes, that is. So lowbrow for you, but yeah. That is. I mean, training partners, mentorship, whatever. The Jimmy Parley is way, way more fun. parlay that you could do if you are so inclined.

And that brings us to the final fight that we will speak about the first fight of the evening a flyweight contest. Pretty fun scrap, but I don't know what it means. As Clayton Carpenter takes on Jose Ochoa. Ochoa, minus 180 bidding favorite,

comeback in Carpenter plus 145. Carpenter's on a two-fight losing street, got submitted by Jeff Ophelia in October. Ochoa lost an Osama Bia of in July, and he has just had a really rough run in the U.S. of Lonnie Kavanaugh, Cody Durdin, the guy he beat, and then Osoramabayev. There's a lot of really solid fighters in there, Billy, for Jose Ocho, which I think is why

he is the betting favorite against Clayton Carpenter. Yeah, but Carpenter's losses are to Tegiro Lembekov and Jafel Filio, who are also, like, good and crucially like a real bad style matchup, I think, for Carpenter specifically. I don't have anything on this one. I'm going to try to get to a full betting preview of this, if I can get some time to watch some tape on these guys. Obviously, first fight of the night, not a high priority, but I am maybe leaning a little bit towards Carpenter, but don't put too much on that now until I get more research

on it. So you and I are actually exactly aligned here, because I, if I had to make a bet right now, it would be Carpenter. I do think he's a better wrestler. And in his previous matchups, he has not been. And that has been a, you know, that's a hallmark of his game. I think you can take Ochoa down and probably win that way. And so plus 1.45, it feels like there's value.

But also, I just, by the time we were recording, I have not done a super deep dive into this fight. Because, like, when you're doing the prep work, some of these fights, like, I'll just level with y'all. I haven't watched a ton of Jordan Santos' Jimmy Suss tape. Like, I have watched some. I don't need to. Yeah, I've watched some, but I know what that fight is

without having to, like, go back. and like even like some of the like king green jeremy stevens i watched no tape for that like that's i've watched both of those dudes fight 40 times like i just have a mental roll of decks but like clayton carpenter josea joa that's one where i kind of need to go back and we watch the fights to see if something jumps out and i just haven't had time big picture it does feel like clayton carpenter there's value at this number um but i haven't i didn't put a bet down uh on this fight and i think given the amount of action i already have on this card. I probably just won't because I don't need to have that much going on. I'm with you on that, but I like to have something on the first fight. You know, there's something mentally about that. You want to break the seal? I get it.

You want to dip your toe in right out of the gate. Look, some fighters need to get hit in the face so they know they're in a fight. You know, that's what you're looking for. Billy, I almost debuted a new segment for this week, but it's not quite ready. So tune in next week,

ladies and gentlemen, as I think next week we might be ready we're working on it i workshopping what it's going to look like but uh billy thank you for joining me to talk about uc328 tell the people where they can find you plug whatever you got a plug and let's let's get addle yeah action network dot com the action app will have all my bets we also have a discord where we chop up fights so any of those things and then on twitter i will post my full card and whatever i decided to do with the climb although it's probably the Jimmy Suss and Oh, why am I blanking on the other guy?

Who's the, Atiba Gotiatea? A table of Goti. Parlay, yeah. I like it. Do it. Join me in that. We'll do that. Follow Billy and all the things. Do all of that. Stick with enemy fighting.com for the rest of this week as we have all of your 328 needs covered.

And then next week, another big one, quite frankly, next week. No, I am not talking about UFC Vegas 117, Arnold Island versus Moki Costa. Though that fight bangs. I'm speaking of course. MVP's MMA debut on Netflix, Ronda Rousey, Gina Carrano, and all the ensuing nonsense that goes with that.

Newsflash, Ronda Rousey, probably going to be a climb next week, given the current line. So stick with us to all of that. Thank you for tuning in. See you next week. Love y'all.