MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Stephen "Wonderboy" Thompson Turn It Around Against Kevin Holland At UFC Orlando?

Episode Date: November 30, 2022

After taking a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC is back with a vengeance with UFC Orlando, headlined by a welterweight scrap between Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland, and the No Bets Barred boys are back to cover all the betting action. First, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew recap the 2022 PFL Championships where Conner nearly went a perfect 15-0, before diving into the 15-fight UFC Orlando card. Conner and Jed end up at odds on a number of plays, but they're in unison where it counts, with the return of flyweight unders and the people's heavyweight champion of the world, Tai Tuivasa. Plus, Jed cooks up a disgusting little two-team parlay that pays out a whopping +1356. Tune in for Episode 27 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cadulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back.

It is another episode of No Betts Barred this time. For UFC Orlando, Stephen Wonderboy Thompson, taking on Kevin Holland. Solid card. I am very much looking forward to that. Before we dive into that, PFL championship, six fighters won a million dollars, got the belt last Friday. Jed, how do we feel about that event, then? Six fighters, won a million. Basically, everybody who tailed you won a million dollars. Oh my God. Can I get into that real quick? Just, uh, absolutely. Yeah, so like the night's going on and, and, you know, it's just like win after win. And just racking them. Racking them up.

Like racking them, man. Like at one point I'm with New York, Rick, he turns me. He's like, how are we doing tonight? And I was just like, yeah, we're doing pretty good, man. And like, in my head, I'm like, I'm perfect so far. Like I'm like six and all on singles, already cashed a couple parlayes. Every other parlay is still alive. I'm not telling anybody about it.

It's like a, it's like a pitcher going through, you know, a no hitter, a perfect game. I'm like, I'm just not even going to bring this up. We're not going to jinx it. We're not even going to talk about it because something is going to lose eventually. We get to the main event. It took a long time. As long as long as. Literally as long as possible.

Oh my God. I was like, at this point, we're going into the main event. Like, everyone's having a good time. I am just like, oh, my God, like I'm on the precipice of a perfect night. And not just like a, you know, yeah, you know, we went two and oh on singles and we hit a parlay, like a nice clean sweep. Like this would have been 10 and oh on singles, five and oh parlay. Like we're talking about like a hefty ass perfect night. Going into it, I need over one and a half, Kayla inside the distance.

that would give me the perfect night that would cash three parles, cash two more singles. We hit the over one and a half with relative ease. And once that over one and a half hit, I was like, oh my God,

I am a Kayla Harrison. Finish away from getting the perfect night. Like, the perfect night for me is elusive. I've come close many times where I usually just miss one bet. It's elusive for everyone, buddy.

Dude, elusive. Like I'm convinced at this point it's never going to happen. UFC Paris, I missed one night. singular bet. Yeah, so there was one point in the third round

Kayla Harrison got her back briefly. And like, you should have seen me rock it out of my seat when she got her back. I was like, oh my God, this could be it. Like, I was in, like, I was almost like as close to euphoria as you could get. If she had locked in a choke, you would have seen me like doing circles around this arena.

But alas, it goes to decision. Kayla Harrison does not get it done. and it's the ghost I continue to chase, the perfect night. Well, maybe one day happen. You know, one day. You just got to keep plugging away. Yeah, I mean, we've talked a lot on the website about that whole loss. We don't need to get into that too much.

I will say, man, I'm really glad that we did the rule book and that the rule about hedging exists because I was texting you at the time. I put together, you know, a little six-fight PFL champion favorite parlay, a juicy plus 600 at the number, and five of them up, one to go. And I was like, Kayla's the last leg. Like, it's Kayla. She already won this twice before. Should I hedge? You were like, I'm letting it ride.

Yeah. So you're asking me if you should hedge. In any other situation, I'm saying yes. But because I had the perfect night on the line, I was like, I'm not doing it. Like, I'm riding or dying with this. And I respect that about your game, but I ultimately was like, it was the price from Pacheco at that point was so high that a hedge cost me very little. Oh, yeah. You had a plus 600 ticket on a parlay with one leg to go.

You essentially had Kayla Harrison at plus 600. The hedge is too easy at that point. Yeah, because Pacheco was also like plus 600. So I just had a two-way bet for plus 600. It's not like you're getting Pacheco at plus 130 and you have to like really lay it down. down to hedge. Like the plus 600, it was too obvious. Yeah, it was, it was just too. And that was it, because the whole time, the, the blocker in my head was not, is should I do this? Clearly, I was supposed to. It was just, it's a lot cooler to hit a six-leg parlay than to hedge out

one, way cooler. So I'm actually living that right now. World Cup group stage, like to qualify from the group, I've set up a beautiful hedge. I took Senegal, USA, and Denmark all to advance. all I need is Denmark now. They have to win today. So I took a nice Australia or a tie plus 180. It's lined up beautiful. Had to hedge. There was no world where I wasn't hedging.

Got a hedge. Also, how about them boys? How about them, man? They made it stressful in the end. But alas, USA moves on to the knockout stage. Horrific tactics and all around not good structure from the team, but got the dub. That's all that matters. Like some analytical stack guys.

like broke down like how terrible like the last 15 minutes were like almost all of our Iran's expected goals came in like the last five minutes of the game like the subs effectively did nothing like all of our so no Zimmerman was a good choice was was solid to anchor but it was it was right was terrible oh dude right was the worst player on the field I wish you could have seen me pacing around my house when they were like oh this could be a a penalty. I had USA Money Line. I obviously had the USA to qualify from the group. I was sweating, man. I don't think I sat down for the last 20 minutes of that game. Yeah, Burrhalter made some awful choices. And we're through though. We're through. We got through.

That's all the matter. Got through. But geez. It seems this isn't just unique to this situation. It feels really true for like every sport. I think coaches just out. think themselves way too often. Because like, sure, Greg Burhalter knows more about soccer than I. I'm not here to pretend that he doesn't. But like, if you just watch that game in the first half when Iran was playing for a tie and all they did was give up looks at goal and we had full run of the game and eventually one fell.

In the second half, we're just looking to hold a 1-0 lead like cowards and Iran has the run of play and he's getting chances. Like, you just can't do that. It seems so obvious to me. I was begging for just like, just like two minutes of possession in those last like 20 minutes. The last 20 minutes, we did not string together two passes. It was clearances and like a one pass. I could agree with that in all of sports that like these coaches at the highest level I'd think themselves.

I mean, there's so much pressure on them. Like I feel pressure when I have a bet and like I have crazy nerves when I have a bet. I couldn't imagine like you're that emotionally, financially, your job is everything is tied to this and you're the one making the decisions. Like, yeah, I could see how you out think yourself. I mean, that's just, yeah, we're getting two in the weeds. We have a shitload of fights to talk about. I say in a soccer pod, boys. Yeah, I said soccer.

This is a fighting one. Yeah, PFL ended up still being a great night for me. You got the hedge in. Yeah, I mean, overall being there, they put on a pretty. pretty good show. They do. The production value is high. Like, it makes, they make it feel big in the arena.

There's a lot of just random celebrities walking around. Yeah, I mean, like, if they came back to New York, I would definitely go again. Yeah, no, it was, uh, and they, it appeared certainly from my home vantage point that they made an even bigger effort for this event, first pay-per-view, you know, the garden, et It seems like they were really all in. And it works. Look, I gave it a lot of shit beforehand. I still think a lot of my criticism were valid.

But it's hard to view that night as anything other than a success for the PFL. Yeah. I mean, and you got great storylines like Brennan-Lak-Nay. I think Pacheco winning is actually good for the BFL. I fundamentally disagree. Oh, I think it's good. I know Rick made that argument on Monday on the MFF. MMA hour.

And it's just clearly not correct. You don't think so. Pacheco is not a star. And that's, and like I don't, I like Lewis Pacheco. I have for a while. I think that she is much better fighting she gets credit for. The PFL should do their best to try and make her one. Harrison is, Harrison was a unique star who was not a star because of a cult of

personality. She's stark, she had two Olympic gold medals and had some personality. Pacheco beating us. her isn't elevating somebody like is that's the other end to that side too the idea of beating stars makes stars there has to be a baseline to work with Nate Diaz elevated to a superstar when he beat Connor because Nate was already beloved and has has a gravitas to him. Dustin Porre similarly can elevate when he beats that Pacheco for her quality as a fighter nobody cares and Harrison is not even a level of a star that is going to springboard somebody up.

NFL should still do their best to make a star out of Pacheco, and maybe this can create a best of five series. And from that, they can, you know, but it is always just better for your stars to win. It is always better because there's more to work with. And it is better for them. I don't think it's catastrophic the Harrison lost. It's definitely not catastrophic. It adds parity to the league. I mean, everything leading up to it was just like, why would I pay $50 to see Kayla Harrison just dominate again?

she's fighting can she fights absolutely nobody her resume is nothing like i at least feel like this gives a little bit of parity to the pfl yeah but it's not parity that anyone cares about is the thing because it's not i think i think the care is going to be limited no matter what with the pfl unfortunately maybe but like you you see the pfl dude came out on twitter the other day and was like offer still stands to chris cyborg like that's their end goal is that fight is is doing stuff like that and that inevitably loses some luster here. Oh, for sure. I don't think it's catastrophic.

Like at that point. Oh, it's for sure off the table. Cyborg will never fight Kayla Harris now. And so like you lose that. And it's, again, it's not catastrophic.

It is always better for your stars to win. Like just as a blanket rule, you may, there may be silver linings and some positives you can take, but it is always better for your stars to continue winning. like that just as a rule in fright promotion. I hate to break up this wonderful conversation here. There's a clock in here and it is doing some ghostly shit right now.

Like it is the hour hands moving, the minute hands moving, but it keeps going back to normal, like right as I look over at it. I mean, this thing is going wacky. Is a haunted studio? If it was, if it was 1 a.m. right now and I was in here by myself and it was pitch black and I saw this thing doing it, yes, I would think this place was haunted. It's kind of freaking me out a little bit and it's staring me right in the face. no one else can see it.

Well, I've got you on video. So if some real, like, insidious stuff starts happening, I will immediately close my laptop and run away. Yeah, I mean, now that I'm talking about it, it's completely stopped doing it. I'm starting to think the clock might be able to hear me. Maybe it can. Maybe it's Rick back there just turning knobs and messing with you. That would be incredible.

Yeah, if it doesn't do anything the rest of the show, then it can definitely hear me. And I'm going to feel uncomfortable every time I come into this studio. All right, though. PFL. We've got 15 fights to talk about my guy. We got to quit vamping. Yeah, let's agree to disagree on that. Let's move right on to UFC Orlando.

Solid card, dude. We get it in front of a crowd. Very good. We get a lot of big-name fighters. I am very much looking forward to this. Saturday's just going to be a day. Just started out at 10 a.m. USA Netherlands. Roll it right into the Big 12 championship at noon,

right into the big one, SEC championship at 4 o'clock. UFC Orlando starts at 7. Then you get the Big 10 championship at 8 on a side TV. I mean, smoke them if you got them, right? I mean, that is just what I'm talking about. Big day. Before we get into the fight, last divergence, very briefly. How are we feeling for Saturday?

I feel great, man. I mean, win or lose, we're in, and I think we're just going to win handily. I agree that win or lose we're in. There's a world where LSU, the only way LSU has a chance is to get in, is to beat us. Oh, no, I think they're 100% out. You think they're cooked either way? Oh, yeah, that loss to Texas A&M is that that's spelled over. You have three losses now.

It's impossible to get in. I guess, I guess. But then that just means. You couldn't, you couldn't bet. I mean, Ohio State doesn't play this weekend and they have one loss. There's no way they would jump them. I mean, I guess that's true. But then if we lose, then it's going to be what Michigan, Ohio State, us TCU still?

Or like just Ohio State slides in instead of USC? If we lose, it gets really. it gets really weird from there. I think it might be, all say we lose and then Michigan, TCU, and USC all win, I think we would still be in, but we'd probably be the four seat at that point.

Oh, that doesn't matter. If we're, if that's our final four, then I'm cool with it. Like, that's fine. The four would remain. We need TCU to win is my biggest thing. We really would like TCU to win. We need USC to win.

Friday night, USC get a dub, like if we get Georgia USC in Mercedes-Benz, they have to travel across the country. We got to take an hour and a half bus ride. Gosh, you can't kill them. I mean, it would be really sick if TCU beat Michigan, too. I mean, well, that would, honestly, I don't care either way. I might be more scared of TCU than I am of Michigan.

I would feel decent about our chances going into a Georgia, Michigan-TCU, USC play. I would feel exceptional, if those were. our chances. Just this thing where we never lose again, man, let me tell you, Connor, huge fan, huge fan of never losing football games again. I don't know if you've seen our regular season schedule next year. Also, like, we're likely to go 12 and 0 there as well. Well, I think that we're probably likely to do that forever moving forward.

All dynasties end, but yeah, for the first-debel future. No, no, no. This is the future dynasty of all dynasties right here, baby. Can't lose. All right. enough about that. Now we can get on to these fights. There's probably some dude in England

listening to this right now and I'm like, I literally don't know what these guys are talking about. I'm turning it off, goodbye. England has zero SEC championships, so... That's true.

That's true. Step up your game, England. All right, let's do it. Main event. Walterway about Stephen Wonderboy Thompson going up against Kevin Holland. Right now you can get Kevin Holland for minus 155.

Stephen Thompson coming back at plus 135. The overrunner is set at three and a half. This is an interesting matchup. In my opinion, I believe that this is actually a favorable matchup for Kevin Holland. Like lately when we see him go up against these Derek Brunsonses against the

or against the Marvin Vittories against the Hamzots, you know they're going to come in and try and wrestle him, try to grapple him. That's a huge disadvantage for Kevin Holland. Stephen Wonderboy Thompson is not going to do that. I mean, he is an excellent fighter. His skill set is incredibly high, but we know what he is likely to do in this situation. The Burns fight, the Bilal fight, we saw him struggle heavily in the ground game.

And for once, I feel like Kevin Holland is the much more well-rounded fighter in this situation. I don't know that I would call him much more well-rounded. Maybe that's a stretch. That might be, I would say, that might be taking some liberties there. The more well-rounded fighter. I agree he is probably the. more well-rounded fighter. I don't think this is a great matchup for him, though.

And I am, I have not yet made a bet on Stephen Thompson. I strongly want to. The thing holding me back is that he's 40. You know, he's about to be 40, and it's very hard for me to bet on a 40-year-old against a surging young kind of guy, especially kind of. But it's, Kevin Hahn isn't going to take. take Stephen Thompson down. Oh.

Like I don't, like, he maybe can get... I think he might. I think he can get, like, one. It's not, like, I don't think he's going to get, have repeated success scoring takedons. Stephen Thompson is not a bad defensive wrestler. And Kevin Holland is not a good wrestler. Like, maybe he can get one or two. It's not, but it's not going to be ballol, you know.

Yeah, it's definitely not going to be ballol. Just tackling him a hundred times or whatever. You would have to think that the game, the ground game. is going to be part of Kevin Holland's tactics. I mean, you would hope. I mean, if you watch the last two Stephen Thompson fights. Yeah, but predicting what Kevin Holland is going to do feels like it's a full errand. It is a dangerous game.

I mean, yeah, you mentioned it Stephen Thompson is 40. So Kevin Holland is going to be 10 years younger than him. He's going to have a 3 inch high advantage and a 6 inch reach advantage. Now, Thompson is, you know, if the fights, stays at range if it if it's just you know karate style striking obviously this is stephen wonder boy thompson's fight to lose but i actually do i i think that kevin holland is is going to get weird i watched the charlie on tiveros fight which obviously ended weird with the with the head slam broke his neck type type deal but it felt like as soon as stuff got weird for kevin holland as soon as like

things looked sketchy because charlie ontovaros can't put people out he immediately shot for takedowns. I really would not be surprised if you tried to take this to the ground on several occasions. I mean, it wouldn't be surprised if he'd be surprised. Like, I just don't know that he's going to succeed. Like, that's, if you told me, yeah, Kevin Holland is going to succeed with takedowns, but like, sure, he's going to win this fight. I have no idea if he is or not. And on the feet, like, it's not a whitewash. Like, Kevin Holland's very competitive on the feet. And maybe Kevin Holland can just land like a big shot a la.

Darren Till, and then that gets the judges. But if Kevin Holland can't score takedowns, I think this fight would favor Stephen Thompson even at 40. Like, just he's really good at managing distance, setting his angles, his traps. And Kevin Holland is a more dangerous striker, but I don't know. Like, Jeff Neal is a hell of a striker, really good fighter. We've seen that now. And Stephen Thompson just had it out on him.

Yeah, it's for five rounds, 25 minutes. Yeah. And it's like I don't, I, this to me is a total doggar pass fight. Like I cannot trust Kevin Holland with my money at, you know, minus 150. Like there's just not, I don't know that I trust Stephen Thompson, frankly. At the, just because he's 40. And that's like, again, that's the biggest touch point for me to not bet him. But I'm in full doggar pass mode on this one.

I actually did play the favorite. I played Kevin Holland. I got to sprinkle in on him early, very early when he was still a plus money. But I played him again at minus 150. That'll be what I'm posting here. Yeah, I mean, I'm just going to trust them. I'm going to trust in a Trailblazer to do this. Maybe that's a, you know, a fruitless endeavor.

The clock's doing it again. By the way, in the second I looked over, it stopped. I saw it in my peripherals. Love it. You just got to hunt with the peripherals, buddy. Just stay frosty out there. Yeah, I'm starting to really believe there might be a little haunting going on. I saw it in the, yeah, just right over my computer screen.

I'm just going to do it. I'm going to say he goes, he goes out there and get some takedowns. I just like, I can't imagine if he has any coach out there, like, just being like, yeah, let's just 25 minutes striking more. Let's do it. like I feel like you either get the takedowns or you knock them out. That's how you win. Say this goes to a decision.

Say it goes to a decision and there's one takedown landed the whole fight. It could be a 49-46. Stephen won, boy, Thompson, went. Yeah, and I think Holland can knock him out. Like, that's a thing that could happen. I just, I have no confidence in what this fight is going to look like or how it's going to play out. So I am not on an action.

If I were, it would be Thompson. I do have the little Connor Brubon. special. Oh, yeah, give me that. Over one and a half as a leg of a parlay. Minus 285. Like, honestly, pretty solid price for this fight. Not terrible, dude.

Especially if you're thinking Holland's going to score takedowns, like. Yeah, also, also, yeah, like, Kevin Holland is a pretty durable dude. I know last time out, obviously, it didn't last long, but I feel like that was, you know, a different kind of circumstance. So, Stephen Thompson, he's been knocked out once. facts and Stephen Wonderboy Thompson is not the biggest K-O artist out here.

He is not the biggest not the biggest finisher. I mean, he hasn't finished anyone since February of 2016, almost seven years ago. So yeah, I don't mind that over one and a half play at all. Sorry, yeah, no. I just in the parlay, I thought

about taking fight goes to decision at plus 150 just because, I don't know, that feels live, feels really live, frankly. Kevin Holland is a chaotic fighter, though. He is, but if he's going to not be chaotic because he's going to shoot for takedowns, then goes to decision feels super live.

So there are a couple of things that are, like, interesting to me. I'm just on that over as a parlor leg at the moment, though. It should be an interesting fight. Can we give some respect to Kevin Holland, too, on the activity? This is going to be a 17th fight since his Contender Series debut in 2018. Yeah. Fights at least three times every year. I say this all the time.

The UFC is really bad at building stars, and fighters seem to be inherently bad at becoming stars themselves for the most part. This is how you do it. Like, everything else, like you need some other mixes in the ingredients as well. You know, you need to have personality, et cetera. Mostly, you just need to be on people's TV screens, like a ton. Because how did Hamzaa become a star? He fought four times in the span of like,

a month and he yelled a bunch and then he turned in great performances. And so it's like, this kid's the future and everybody saw him fight a bunch. So then there's a touch point in people's head. Oh, that's that dude who's beating the shit out of everybody like in 2020. Exactly. Beyond people's TV screen a ton and have exciting fights.

Yeah. And like that's the recipe right there. Plus Kevin Holland has a pretty fun personality. Yeah, he's got a personal. And like that's all he did. It's all he did was he had fun fights. He talked a little bit of shit. and he fought a lot.

And it's, he's not Connor, but he is a known commodity. And so young fighters, if you're trying to be a star, do those three things. You got a better chance than most. All right. Well, that's the main event. Right now, your doggar pass. I'm on Trailblazer, and we'll see what happens. Very interesting fight in the Welterweight Division should be pretty fun to watch.

Next up, we'll stay in the Welterweight Division for the co-main event. It is Rafael Dosanos going up against Brian Barbarana. Right now you can get Dosanos for minus 540. Barbarana coming back at plus 420. I parlayed up RDA at minus 400. I mean, I think if he just stays disciplined and doesn't engage in a brawl that Barberana just loves to do. I mean, if you just watch any Barberana fight, it feels like he's always engaging in

brawls, especially that last fight with Lawler. I think if he just doesn't engage in that, I mean, this should be his fight all day to lose. I just think he's the better fighter. He has the better grappling chops. He can mix it up more. Yeah, I feel like he just gets this done. Full, full agreement. I, because Barbrain is so tough, durable dude,

and RDA's lost a bit of his fastball. It's only three rounds. Instead of taking RDA as a parlay piece, I propped him by decision at minus 135. But yeah, this is just going to be classic RDA. Pressure takedowns, pressure and takedowns. body kicks pressure and takedowns and just grind out 15 minutes. I doubt Barbarano will win more than a minute of this fight total.

Just a full-on showing from the former lightweight champ. Yeah, I mean, I think most people are in agreement with this one. I will be watching it closely, though, because if RDA and them do just start brawling like madmen, definitely you can get nervous. Yeah, but... Cheeks are going to clench you up a little bit. RDA is just not a guy to brawl like a madman. Like, that's just not what he does.

Also, can we just talk very briefly? This fight's weird as shit, right? It's kind of a weird matchup, huh? Yeah, like RDA is like a top 10 lightweight in the UFC's rankings. And he's just taking a welterweight fight against... Sure, a guy on a three-fight win streak. But Brian Barbrain is not He's not close to being ranked

Like he's not I mean I guess maybe he is close Just because he beat Robbie Lawl Who's probably on the fringes But This is just a weird I don't know who this fight serves I don't know what this fight's about

Or who it's for It's just a fight I wish I could tell you man Over 1 and a half Isn't a terrible play there If we're getting into a chalky parlay I'm holding out for like The ultimate chalk like a three leg

minus 200 of Tuvisa Pavlovich doesn't go to a decision and then Ducote Hill and Cortez Chibus both over one and a half. I mean, we're talking Chalk McChalkington.

Yeah, this is his school board chalk, right? Geez. Does it lose, though? Probably because we're not allowed to have fun things, Connor. All right. I know something that isn't going to lose and it takes place in this next fight.

It is still on the main card. What could it be? It's a fight between Mateus, Nicolao, and Matt Schnell. If you're familiar with the names, then you know that fight is taking place in the fly weight. 125 pounds and under. 125. I think you know what that means.

Played it as soon as it opened. I got it at plus 120. Matt Schnell is a man of the people. Matt Schnell is a man of the man of. no-bets barred nation seven of his 11 UFC fights have gone under the two and a half uh I mean like he just does it he just makes fights chaotic and and he goes in there and he makes sure that they don't go over two and a half uh he loves collecting UFC cards too he's big on that uh I mean how can you not love the guy I mean I'm all in on him yeah Mateus Nicolaouou sure he goes the decisions

but kind of a lot but whatever we got Schnell in there we got Chanel and Nicola is a man with two Japanese neckties on his resume. Like, how are you? This is a Japanese businessman, and he is going to do the business for us under two and half, easy game. Simplest bet on the card, frankly. I mean, I watch zero tape to make this bet. Didn't need it.

I already know how this works. Aim and fire, you know what's going on. I did parlay up, nickel out, minus 335. Oh, okay. Yeah, I just kind of think That feels risky Ooh You think Schnell

I did kind of think Schnell But man Going back and watching Like Sumadarji doesn't have a torn ACL Going into that fight Matt Chanel's probably not

Walking out of there With his hand raised It looked like On multiple occasions That the ref was going to stop it In favor of Sumadarji He's just been on He's just got that dog in him

Schnell's just got that dog baby He does have the dog in him the x-rays came out there is a dog in there uh just overall i mean nicola i just like i just think he has him covered everywhere like i just think he is is better in the striking i think he's better in the grappling i think he's better defensively uh and yeah hopefully it's just a a crazy chaotic fight uh i hope so too chaos would be ideal for for both our sakes i don't have any action beyond besides the under because why would you you know you've got one guaranteed win just just take that move on

to my next guaranteed excitement, even if not a win. I was going to say excitement. I do think if it does go to a decision, then Nicola was likely getting his hand raised, so I guess like an emotional edge. I don't know. I don't need it. I know we're getting to finish.

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Probably the fight I'm most looking forward to on the card. I absolutely cannot wait for this. This is the people's main event. It has to be. I'm comfortable with them not giving this a main event stat. Because we don't, this doesn't need five rounds. There's no way this needs five rounds. No, there's like absolutely no way.

It's a heavyweight bout tied to Ivasa taking on Sergei Pavlovich. Right now you can get Pavlovich for minus 200. Tuvisa coming back at plus 170. Over under is set at one and a half and this number has tanked. What did you take the over at? The over is plus 175. Wow. So I'm on under one and a half.

I am just blatantly fading you here. I hate to say it. You got to do what you got to do, but I'm going to be sad. I'm going to have an electric day. You talk about an electric bet. this is going to be an electric bet these guys have a combined 17 UFC fights neither has ever

completed a takedown 13 of their 17 fights have not gone over the one and a half you talk about swang and bang for the area this is a fight that they are going to come out here and swang and bang it is going to be whoever touches who first

that's pretty much how this one is going to go it's uh it's electric i couldn't be more best fight in the card my favorite bet every weekend the heavyweight over most electric bet in combat sports and i also i don't know about you connor but i i i had a feeling that we might be sympathical here because sure sergey pavlovich big strong dude big big man please looks like iven drago looks like he's straight out of a rocky movie yeah just a comically large gentleman terrifying hits very very hard reach reach

of a boa constrictor, 84 inches. But you know who just, who doesn't give a shit about it anymore? Does not care at all. Couldn't care less is Bam Bam, Tatu I Vasa. This man, I don't know if you know this, I don't know if you remember

Derek Lewis, most chaos in UFC history. Black Beast one of the hardest punches I've ever seen in my life. Taito Yvasa was just like here. I ate them. I mean, eat those lunch boxes. I'm going to throw right back. And you know, that that's where this comes down to me.

I know for with 1,000% certainty that Tai Tui Vasa can take a punch from Sergey Pavel. I know that. I know that in my heart. He might not be able to take a hundred of them. We saw Cyril Gron eventually got him out of there. And like, let's talk about like, dude, he took a beating before that fight finally got called. And he caught Cyril Gond bad at one point. Yeah.

Like he really, I look like he was going to finish Cyril Gond. He impressed the shit out of me as like a plus $500. His most impressive fight, bar none. Like bar none. And in a loss. And that's the thing. I know that Bam Bam can take a shot at least one, probably a few. I have no idea if Sergey Palovich can take a shot from Bam Bam because not many people can.

Not many people can. And so when I looked at this and the betting line is somehow plus 180 for Tai Tuivasa, never seen better value in my. my life. I'm on the underdog. Thank you, Lord. Thank you, Lord, because not just everything that you just said, but also, if you can go to sleep at night with your conscience laying money on Sergey Pavlovich minus 200 over Bam Bam, over our guy, Tai Tui Vasa for the area, like, if you don't want to cheer for Tai Taitoivasa, if you don't want to see him starch this dude flat and then get up on

the cage and do a nasty shooey. Like we just aren't. And you go to Disney World. We aren't on the same page. Disney World is absolutely happening. Like that's the only reason he took this fight. We broke that down before. That's the only reason he took the UFC Paris fight so he could go to Disney World Paris.

Like those are just clear things. Like I played Taito Ivasa. You said plus 180. I guess I was dumb here. I took him at plus 145. Well, no, I would have thought at the time I would have thought. I would have been like, there's no way this line moves further to Pavlovich. That's what I said.

I took him at plus 145. And then when the K.O. prop came out, I'm not going to lie. I hit this as soon as it open. I was shocked. I was expecting like a plus 200. I was like, I'll throw some more cheddar on K.O. at plus 200. I got it at plus 350, threw another half unit on that guy.

I mean, I'm on the under. Like a tie two. We got plus 215 is the current prop that I got the KO at. So I beat you on the straight action, not on the KO prop. Yeah. Yeah. I lost on on Thai straight. one on the K-O prop.

I was really shocked at how that opened. Tye's the man. I'm doing a shooey or two on Saturday. There's just no doubt about it. I say shooey. I meant shooey vasa, the official drinking merchandise of Tai Tui Vasa. I will be doing that several times.

I mean, got it. It's a banger, dude. It's a banger. I want to ride with my guy. It's just that easy. Let's get a nice clean knockout where we don't even take that much damage

and let's get up on the Perth card. I love it. It's beautiful. Also, last thing on this fight, because we're, oh, well, first, Wolfpack Wager, just in case we were on a clear. You're doing a lot of barking on Saturday, I can tell you that much. A lot of barking. Go dogs. Last thing on this, though, is who is laying minus 200 on Sergey Pavlovich?

They're people, I guess. Who, if, listeners, if you are one of them, I want you to reach out, hit me up on. Twitter. If before this show came out, you were like Sergey Pavvich minus 200, got to come at me. Because I got to talk to you. I got to understand what in year ahead is like, I feel very

confident laying minus two on Sergey Pavvich here. That makes me no sense. I never want to shame someone for their bed if you're not shaming them. I want to know. I am genuinely curious what they can see that makes them confident in

minus 200. That number is large. If Pavlovich gets the first round knockout, I'm sure everyone's going to run to us on Twitter and you know, gloat and all that. That's fine. Do it? The hindsight betters are my absolute favorite. They'll hide in a cave

until their bet wins and then they come out banging their chest. You got to have that same energy pre-fight as well. Yes, dude. This fight, sure, Sergei Pavvich, huge reach advantage, nice win streak of first round knockouts and everything. At the end of the day, dude, these are two

heavyweights that absolutely chuck them. They just throw them. They can knock anybody out. And it just comes down to who hits whose button first. These guys aren't going to take down. These guys aren't going to go for takedowns. They're not going to try and wrestle. They're just going to throw them until someone goes down. And who catches who first? That's all it comes down to. I mean, yeah, I just, I was stunned at this line. This line is maybe the most shocking line of the entire car.

hard to me. There's one other that's in that that is is in contention for that claim, but I thought this fight would be a pick-um like if not tie as a favorite and then for this to be this it is just... I mean he's athletically underrated dude. Guy can slip

punches, he can counter, he can take a punch like no one's business for the area, bro. That's all it comes down to. For the area. Let's get it done. Bam-Bam. Oh man it's going to be so sick if he wins. Yeah, it's the best. That's a guy that like I want to cash bets on.

Like there's some people that I take bets. I'm like, yeah, if it wins, sick. What do we think he's walking out to? Oh, man. I don't know. Yeah, he switches it up every time. He does. He mixes it up.

I don't know. I got it. I didn't think about this until right now what his walkout's going to be. There's nothing more legendary than like the after party. I would say maybe the Rocky theme song. Oh, that would be so sick. Since he's fighting the MMA's Ivan Drago. I mean, there's nothing more legendary than those posts.

Like, Taitoviwivovost. doesn't have an after party like the day of. He goes on like a three, four week bender after his fights. Win or lose. I love it. Yeah, it's the best way to celebrate. You know, long fight camp. We got to get ready to get dialed. Here we go. And no better place to celebrate than the happiest place on earth, baby. You know he's going there. You know he's going there. All right, let's keep it rolling. Middleweight bout. Jack Hermanson going up against Roman DeLite. DeLitsay coming in on short notice. Her Manson right now can be at for minus 190. DeLiezi. plus 160.

Short notice, pretty big step of in competition. If the Leite can get this done, especially in the fashion that he's been doing lately, like, I feel like his star power, like, yeah, like really begins to rise. Yeah, I mean, if he can,

got ourselves a contender on hand. I have no idea if he can or not. I will just, I'll lead us off and say, I don't have any action. I was briefly tempted by Deleesee, just because I think he's pretty underrated. And we might be seeing a guy ascend. And I certainly think we've seen the best Hermanson has to offer at this point.

But the short notice really makes it tough for me to feel confident on Deleideze. So it's a doger pass and I'm passing just in general. Yeah. I actually played Hermanson when the line was a little bit shorter. I played him at minus 150. Yeah, the short notice, the step up in competition, like Hermanson has been in there with some of the killers in this division. I felt like he showed improvement last time out and his striking against Chris Curtis.

Obviously, if DeLite tries to wrestle, we know Hermanson has in there. I mean, he was preparing for Derek Brunson. Yeah, I just feel like this is going to be kind of just like a vet too soon short notice. You look back and it's just like, yeah, you know, not the best circumstances for DeLite. I kind of feel like it's a win-win for Roman though. Like if he comes out here and gets a knockout sick, if he loses people are like, I mean, he stepped in on a short notice against, like, a UFC veteran. Yeah, I don't know.

I mean, if he wins, obviously, it's great. I think a loss isn't catastrophic, but Deliades is also not. Catastrophic, dude. Yeah, but the thing is, he's also not a spring chicken, you know. He's 34. Like, his, he needs to be very intentional with his fights. And so I think losing here is a setback. And I don't know how many setbacks, a 34-year-old,

can really reasonably suffer if they're trying to make a real run at contention. So there's downside to taking this on short notice pretty clearly for me, and that's the biggest factor. I think if this was full camp, I'd feel a little more confident in an underdog bet on DeLizze. I think the line would probably be shorter, too, if there was a full camp. I probably would just be staying away period if this had been a full camp. Yeah, I've just decided to stay away period in general.

I have no real, real true reader under, I can't visualize exactly how this fight looks in my head. And so I'm like, we're out. Well, don't need to. I have plenty of bet, plenty action down on this card. All right, let's keep it rolling. It is another middle-way bout. Eric Anders taking on Kyle Doggers right now. You can get Doggust for minus $200.

I'm just coming back at plus 185. She wanted me to bet on a former Alabama football player, the dogs, when the SEC champion. It seems ambitious to say the least. That's not happening. I can just tell you right now, that's not happening. Yeah, I'm just not going to do that also. Anders, I mean, he's 3 and 7 in his last 10 with won no contest. If you just watch his fights, he's a low volume.

He hasn't landed more than 65 strikes in five years in the UFC. I mean, he's a good stat. Decent wrestler, like, doesn't really handle the jihitsu game well. I'm playing Dawkins really just to fade Alabama, but also I think he gets it done. I respect the fading Alabama strategy. Yeah, I mean, we're really going deep there, but like I just, I could not trust honors with my money even at plus 185. Yeah, so this is similar to the last middleweight bout. Only the inverse where I, there's a zero percent world where I can trust Eric Anders.

I just don't love the price on on Kyle Dawkins. Like, it's not awful, but... Did it have his orbital bone broken by Roman DeLite last time out? Yeah. His whole face fractured. He sure did. And then, you know, Jamie Pickett, Jamie Pickett, the Kevin Holland fiasco, lost to Phil Daws. It's just, I don't feel confident putting my money on Dawkes.

And there is no way I can dog bet. like Eric, Anders, like that's just an insane thing. So I just looked at the middleweight fights on this car. I was like, I'm just not going to bet them because that's where I get myself into trouble.

I'm going to find myself in trouble this weekend. I've got a little bit more action than I intended to. You, when you hit me in telling me, it was like, that is so many bets. And I get it. Like,

this is a quality card, but that is, you have a lot of bets down. Yeah, I've got a one, two, three, four,

five, six, so, Yeah, nine bets. It's going to end up at three parlays after I get my chalky overs and doesn't go to this. I love it. Got a couple one championship bets. We'll get into it at the end, too.

Let's go. All right, let's get to the prelims and let's rip through these bad boys. Let's start with some straw weights. Angela Hill taking on Emily DuCote. Right now you can have Angela Hill for Even Money and Emily Duccoe coming back at minus 120. I've got nothing on this, but I'm holding out for that chalky. over that shocky over one and a half minus 750 minus 800 that's that's what i'm talking about but other than that i got nothing on this love that show you over uh i have two bets on this one so the first uh hill

ducote goes to goes to decision minus 360 that's leg two of the parley paired in with uh the thompson hollin over one and a half these women don't just they they simply do not get finished i think and they're combined like 48 or 50 fights. They have three finish losses between them. They were very durable. Neither are huge finishes in their own right. It's just going to go to the cards. Feel really confident in that.

And then I took a shot on Emily Ducote. At minus 120, I would have preferred maybe a better price, obviously, but this is kind of me fading Angie. And I hate to say it because great personality. You love it. Everybody loves Angela Hill. can you not she is 37 going about to be 38 in a division where you cannot age gracefully frankly like that just isn't how straw weight works decote is not the greatest fighter in the world

but i kind of view this fight looking a lot like angela hill tisha torres decote is going to work at a very high rate and angela i think angela hill is just never going to get going uh you know maybe when the deeper props come out, you could convince me to bet Dakota by split decision because there's one thing Angela Hill loves, it's losing by split decision. One of her favorite activities of all time.

Absolutely loves it. Yeah. So if that line drops and it's some big juicy number, I might throw another one on there, but in general I just feel like Dakota's going to outwork her and Angela Hill's, she's too old.

I'm doing a lot of fading old people, on this card, Connor. Gotta be honest. We got a lot of old people. Ages Jed here. Hates old people. Ages Jed. I don't hate old people.

I don't believe in their ability to win fist fights at 115 pounds. All right. Well, I mean, I guess let's keep it rolling on the aging wonders train. Next up, it's a lightweight bow. You got Clay Guida going up against Scott Holzman. Right now you can get Holtzman for minus 150. Gwita coming back at plus 130. What do you got here?

You're not on this fight. No. That just blows my mind. What? You think I should be on Guida? No. I think I should be on Holtzman. Yes.

When I said that, you know, the Tai Tui Vasa line was the weirdest line. The contender is I expected Scott Holtzman. Look, Scott Holtzman is 39 years old. Yes. He is an old man. His last two losses are to Matush, Gamrod, and Benil Daryush. I don't know if you heard of him. Both dudes are pretty damn good.

Like, ain't. And he was doing, like, he had moments against Daryush. Like Daryush had some trouble there for a minute before he got the spinning back fist K.O. Clay Gwita is, is 40. He's about to be 41, about to be 107. I, like, he is so washed, dude. Like, I don't understand.

Like, he has pulled some wins out because he fought Michael Johnson, who I think we talk about later and he pulled out an R&C but he is he is cooked he is all the way done done I could not believe that this line was only minus 150 and maybe this is insane and maybe

next week we'll get on here and be like wow Jed you put a lot of faith in Scott Holstman who's not like a great fighter Clay Guida is the washedest man of all time and I'm getting minus 150 to bet against him with like a good athlete hell yeah took Scott

Holtzman, I feel great about it. Most confident bet on the card? Yes, it is, I'm not betting more money on it just because like, it, it seems ridiculous to me to bet like multiple units on Scott Holtzman in general. But in my head, I cannot, like, this is the widest, wideest between where a line is and where it should be for me on this card. What would you line Scott Holtzman at? I thought he'd be minus 500.

Like, no, no joke. I genuinely thought he'd be minus 500. All right, so should I lock in Scott Holton right now? Like, you're making a fairly good sale for it. I can't tell you how to go because I'm not going to pretend like I did a ton of tape study on how they line up stylistically here. This was when I looked... I mean, you're saying that a minus 150 should be minus 500.

I genuinely think that, like, when I looked at, I was like, okay, because that's how I do my bets. Like, I make lines before I look at what the betting lines are largely, just as a guideline. to be like, okay, like, I think this will probably be here. This will probably be here. And so then when I look at what the actual lines are, I can be like, well, I'm very, I have a huge gap on this. Let's go look into this and see where I did it wrong.

In my head, I was like, I don't know, I think Scott Holtzman would be like minus 500. And then it's, it's super not. It's got an ultimate minus 150. Let's throw a unit and a half down on him. I just, if he loses, I will be. the dumbest man in the world, I guess. I know. We will make you eat crow next week on the show.

I cannot wait for this. Absolutely can. I'm locked in on the ageless wonder that is Scott Holtzman against the washed, worthless, according to Jed, Clay Gwita. You know, I was going to say that that is not how I described it. But you know what? Let's just go ahead and say because, look, also, you're going to feel great on Saturday when they walk out because Scott Holtzman may be 40, but that man is body beautiful baby.

Just looks great getting off the bus. A good body beautiful bet. Looks great getting off the bus is all I'm saying. When I'm 40, if I can look half that good, I would be enthused. All right. Scott Holtzman, I love the enthusiasm. I've just locked in another bet. Hot sauce, baby, let's go.

Back to back weeks of 10 singles for old C.B. be over here. If you go perfect except for this bet, I'll feel so terrible. I can promise you that's not going to happen. I actually, like last week was one of those weeks we're going into it. I felt pretty damn good about my bets and like it worked out well. This week, I can see where I start getting into treacherous waters. Okay.

Hey, but at least you know, you see it coming. Not going to change. Not going to do anything different. Just going to steer into the storm. There you go. I'm on a pretty hot, hot streak right now. I can stand to sacrifice a couple units in the name of some fun. Let's keep it going, though.

It is a lightweight bout, Michael Johnson. The aforementioned Michael Johnson taking on Mark D.KCasey right now, you can get Mark the bone crusher for minus 305. Michael Johnson coming back at plus 255. That parlay I mentioned with RDA, I added Mark Dea Casey to it. Ressel. That's it. that's all your coaching points that's my whole coaching points wrestle wrestle wrestle let's not

make this fun let's make it boring let's make boring bone crusher come back last four wins he's got 26 takedowns on attempted 40 I mean listen if the takedowns aren't there yeah I mean this fight could could really start to switch up but if the takedowns are there I think this is going to be a fairly one-sided fairly boring marty Casey dominant decision one Man, we are at odds a lot this week. Let's go. I'm taking Michael Johnson. I don't feel good about it.

I want to be extremely clear. All the confidence and feel goods I had in the last bet, ain't none of them here because I bet on Michael Johnson. And how could any man in the world feel incredibly confident betting on Michael Johnson? 2018. I know he is better than that. I know he is better than 2018, but... Yeah, but like in some ways he's the lightweight Eric Anders, you know?

Like, he should be better than maybe he is. You really shouldn't feel confident even. And this is how Vegas wins. This is how they win. They get you to bet because I can't help but see the traits and be like, man, look at the highs from Michael Johnson. And the other end of it, too, man, I don't trust Mark Dykeasy at all. Like, I don't trust that man even a little bit.

And I know that he has looked good recently, but he has not looked good against, like, the greatest competition in the world. And if he can't get takedowns, like you said, this fight gets real frisky. And I maybe, he probably can. And then this is that this will be a stupid bet. Michael Johnson has historically been solid at defending takedowns. Not the greatest takedown defender in the world.

But I mean, we're looking at a guy who still has a 79% takedown defense rate for over a lot of years. And he is, I think he is definitely the more dangerous striker. A lot more speed in the hands. A lot more popping the punches. and I just kind of think that he's going to be able to stuff enough takedowns to make it interesting, certainly at this price point. So he's actually at plus 260 right now. The money keeps coming in on Diakisi. I don't know if that's going to maintain or what.

My guess is, yeah, I was going to say my guess is that it will and you can wait a little bit and get Johnson at an even steeper price. But I just locked him at 260 for a shot. The good news is you'll kind of. to know. Oh, immediately. Immediately. Like, if D.K.C.

He just blasts a double leg and, like, takes him down and, just holds him down for most of the first round. It's like, yeah. Yeah, I mean, obviously he's got the more powerful hands, but, uh, I'm, I'm looking for an Alon Patricke,

uh, kind of fight from, from Michael Johnson, you know? Stick to the game plan here. Bone Crusher. That's my, that's my, that's my, this is my, like, Alon feels like a friend. I know that Alon Patric is Brazilian, but Alon feels like a French way to say Alan, Mark, with the C, feels very French.

You know, I'm hoping Michael Johnson can just beat French-ified names. I like that. I like that. I'm digging for reasons beyond the fact that I don't trust Mark Daikisi and I can't quit Michael Johnson for some reason. Yeah, I mean, if you, yeah, I think what would it be if you, if you played $100 on Michael Johnson, his last six. I usually, oh, I haven't done it for the last six.

I usually, I usually do these before fights, or I see, like, what the ROI on betting fighters is, just because it's like an interesting dynamic to look at. I bet that you're still ahead in Michael Johnson, his UFC career. Oh, UFC career? Maybe, maybe. Certainly not his last six fights just because of his one in five, but. And he won as a minus 150 favorite.

Yeah, but his overall career, he had some big, like, At Dustin Porre, I bet... Plus 150. He was only plus 150 for that? Which is shocking because that comes middle... Like, you're in the middle of a lost streak sandwich. That's true. Also, the Artem Lobov win, I bet doesn't...

I bet the Artem Lobov fight doesn't come with a lot, with a lot of value on it. But, you know, Barbosa, Underdog... Joe's on, plus 220. Yeah, like, I think you're still actually ahead. with him just because he's had a lot of underdog wins. Tony Ferguson plus 27. I was just say Tony Ferguson.

Shane Roller plus 210. I think you're still ahead. If you bet a hundred bucks on him every time out, I think you've got a slight, a slight bench. Dude, he's been in the UFC for ever. For a lifetime. Just a lifetime.

Forever, man. Like 2010 is when he made his debut on the Ultimate Fighter. I was a sophomore in high school. Lost to James Kraus in 08. Just forever James Kraus James Kraus

He's got a fighter on this card He will not be there will he I don't know I don't want to get back into this Because we still have fights to talk about man There's a shitload of them this week And we're coming up on the hour mark And we're not even halfway through the prelimbs

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Men's further away about Darren the Danger Elkins. Matt, damage Schnell or Danger Schnell? I think he's danger. So we've got the danger. Yeah, we've got the damage and we've got danger. Yes, we've got the damage and danger. Yeah, if it's hard to remember the damage, you just look at Darren Elkins' chest.

and you can remember. There it is. He's going up against JSP, Jonathan Pierce. Right now you can get Pierce from minus 450. Elkins plus 350. You got anything on this one? I do. So I have Jonathan Pearson Parley.

Sweet. Me too. Tell the people why we did that. Because Jonathan Pierce is a much better fighter than Darren Elkins at this stage of their careers. You think JSP's going to wrestle? I don't know, maybe. could. I kind of think he can win this fight in any manner in which he chooses. Oh, I was actually joking. He lands like seven takedowns every 15 minutes. Yeah, but he also might like not just because

they don't know if he needs to. Like he might just outbox Darren Elkins because. Yeah, Elkins is kind kind of dangerous on the ground too. Yeah, like they're grappling with Darren Elkins is certainly the better outcome for Darren Elkins, even if it's still probably a really bad one. Like it's a guy just, I think Jonathan Pierce can win this fight in any fashion he wants. and thus, I don't know, like, he's going to wrestle some. I don't know if it's going to be his normal. Let me just, and it probably will because, you know, you fight to your style. I mean, his last four fights, four takedowns, six takedowns, five takedowns.

Like the guy loves getting takedowns. 60% accuracy, too. I mean, there's just no world where he doesn't win this. Frankly, so I've got him as the third leg to my parlay that I've mentioned with the Hill, Dakota, it goes to decision Thompson Holland over one and a half. All three of those pay out at plus 110 together. I also just strongly kind of wanted to do Pierce parlayed up with Scott Holtzman, even though just because in my head, Darren Elkins and Clay Guida are the same guy.

They're the exact same fighter. They've been around for 100,000 years. Ressel, grinder, toughouts, high volume, etc. They're both a billion years old and we'll lose. And so I wanted to just do the fade the old wrestler parlay, but Holtzman somehow was only minus 150. So I threw Pearson to my other parlay. Add Holtzman to every single parlay this week.

Just every single you take, just add Scott Holtzman and make it a two-leg palet. Oh, but then if Clay Gwita like wins by DQ, I'm going to hate my life. No, I'm just kidding. I'm just kidding. It would be so d'all. I just love like I would never have. guessed when we were about to start recording that you're like, just like

lock, like stone cold confidence would be on Scott Holtsman. Just click, we just bad. He's old and bad. I don't know. Hey, just Jed. Hey, just Jed. Don't bring your grandparents around Jedd Michoud, folks. We've got a lot of old people on this card, by the way. Just a ton

of old bodies. Yeah, a lot of people celebrating 40 soon. We're betting on freaking, uh, it is shocking to me, by the way, that we are, that I'm betting on RDA8, but it's also because in my head, I know that Brian Barberina is somehow only 33. I know, I know. He is 46 in my head. Brian Barbarana should not be four years older than me.

Brian Barbarina. Brian Barbarina shouldn't be younger than me. Brian Barbarina could be my dad. I'll say it right now. I don't care if he's only four years older than me. Brian Barbarana could be my father. Just absolutely. It blows my mind.

that he is that much younger in our... The guy had merch at one point, and it was lunchboxes, like steel lunchboxes, like he was the heavyweight champ in 1940. Like, how was he 33? There's someone's faking this. He's Benjamin Buttoning. Yeah, I don't believe it whatsoever. He made his UFC debut when he was 56,

and now he's just aged back to 33. Yeah, just, hey, if he keeps doing it, that's a great way to make a run to a title if he just gets younger. I mean like honestly I cannot believe it also his topology picture is it goes hard bro with the red with the blood streaked across looks like I need to pull up old uh Brian Barbarina also I just I thought about it and I couldn't do it for obvious reasons there's a bam bam parley to be had on this fight card bam bam Tai Tui Vasa bam bam bam Brian Barbarana Wow. Both underdogs.

Wow. It really, I'm very interested in it just from a gimmicky standpoint. Because, I mean, let me figure out exactly what that looks like from a... Gotta be huge. Gotta be huge. I mean, I would suspect, I'll do that while you tell us. Do you have anything else to speak on YJSP? Oh my God, it's so big.

Over a thousand for sure. Plus 1356. Probably not going to be. I'm locking it in right now. I don't care that I am actively betting against Brian Barberina in another one. Because I feel great about Ty's chances, if he pulls this off, I'm getting extra. I'm locking in the Bam Bam Parley. Might be a donation, but I'm here for the fun of it.

I love it. Because if Ty wins, then that co-main event, I'm a winner either way. RDA gets the dub When Bam Bam wins Boom Bam Bam Parley plus 1356 I said that I love it a few times I don't know if I

If I Speaking of another play Don't know if I love it But had to get some action down Women's flyweight bout Tracy Cortez I love I sell me I wanted to be here

I want something I want to feel alive in this fight And I don't have a bet You have to feel alive People's main event part two after Ty Toeva. Love this fight. It's the prelim main event for sure.

Absolutely, no doubt. This is the pre-lim main event. Tracy Cortez taking on Amanda Hebas. Right now you can get either of them for minus 110. I took Tracy Cortez. Oh, that wasn't what I wanted to hear. You were feeling Hewis. Yeah, I am.

I can't bet it, but I'm feeling her. All right. So Tracy Cortez, similar to the last few people, that I mentioned, I guess this is just the wrestling, the wrestling show for me. I mean, she's just relentless with the takedowns. Like, she has landed multiple takedowns in every single one of her UFC fights. She's never had less than six and a half minutes of control time. I see your hand up. You're about to say Amanda Hebas has over 80% takedown defense. That's not actually what I'm about to say. I mean, you said it. You said it. I am aware of

this. Vierna Jingeroba fight. First round. She gets taken down. with like three and a half minutes left, stuck there for the rest of the round. Cannot get up off of her back. I rate Cortez's wrestling better than that. If Cortez can be successful with the takedowns, I think this is her fight. Similar to the D.KSI fight. If the takedowns aren't there, yeah, this becomes an entirely new fight. I mean, Amanda Hebas defensively sound on the feet.

Like 70% striking defense, you do not see that often. and she also just has good striking. Can you remind me what is her takedown defense? 89? 87. So 88. 88. Connor, as a Georgia Bulldogs football fan, would you say that defense wins championships?

Defense does win championships. That's all I'm saying. That's why I was hoping you were selling me on H-Boss, but please, please continue. Yeah. I mean, it really just comes down to, I think, think she will be able to use her strength, her size. Hebas loves the judo reverse. I just don't know if that's going to be there for her.

I just think if it does go to the mat, if she does get taken down. Like, say Cortez, like, if she can have that same top pressure and just keep her down, then the round might be over. I was on Hewis in that fight, and I remember thinking, God, if she gets taken down in the second round, and this fight is done. I mean, maybe. Play Heavans. We'll see.

I like us both having each side of this. I wouldn't see here's. I would not play Hebus. What's Hebus by decision? Because it feels, it feels very unlikely that Hebas gets a finish in this fight, frankly. So that was the thing. And it's very unlikely Cortez does too. Yeah.

The over is clearly a beautiful bet, except for it's juice to the moon. Juice to the moon, bro. So here's the thing. That's how juiced it was. I was like, I really like Tracy Cortez by decision. I was like, let me get like a plus 180 plus 200 and I'm locking it in. I took Tracy Cortez at plus 100. By decision was plus 120 when it came out.

I was like, geez. I was like, okay, I'm just going to play her straight then. Well, I'm seeing Hebaugh's by decision at plus 163 right now. Now, that's a bet. That's a solid bet. I'm going to be jumping on. Plus 163, I mean. That's, I feel solid about the number there.

So I'm jumping on Hebas by decision at plus 163, adding yet another bet to, again, every week now. I have like a reasonable, responsible amount of bets. I'm feeling good. I'm not getting out over my skis. I talk to you for an hour and 15 minutes. And suddenly I end up with 12, 12 bets down, three parlays, a bunch of. of gimmicks. It's why we're here. It's why we're here. Still making money, but it's much, I'm adding a lot more than the plan. Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, the goal is to profit

and profit we have done over the last six months now. Can I ask you one last question about this? I'd be offended if you didn't. So I know that, you know, tapology, everybody has or has or has Tracy Cortez. Just throwing it out there. You check the old IG. she's she's Tracy R. Ortega on on Instagram at this point in time. Oh, oh, what? She changed the name on Instagram. Tracy R. Ortega, I can't speak whether she and Brian Ortega have officially been like, you know, been married. That has to be recent. This has to be recent. Very, very recent. And I don't, like I said, I don't know. I know that she has been engaged to Brian Ortega for a little little stretch. I don't know if they finally got hitched. But her, her IG is Tracy Ortega. It's still

Cortez MMA. Oh, oh yeah, yeah. All right. So the name is Cortez MMA, the official Tracy R. Ortega. U.S.C. Fighter, Creator, Mexicana. Like, she is, I don't know if that changes your because I don't know. I don't know if this is a positive for her. You know, she's got that new, she's, she's just married, she's feeling fresh, she's vibrant, or, or, or, I don't know what to believe. I don't know if this influences your decision. Oh, I just wanted to throw it out there. Notice this the other day. So she took a picture with Brian Ortega. at UFC Long Island and she hand is on full display

giant rock giant rock I mean Ortega I can't tell if that is an engagement ring or a wedding ring I suspect it's an engagement ring because they've been engaged for a minute okay all right so that's been a thing I'm sorry they have been engaged latest yeah they've been engaged I just don't know

it seems like they may now be married based on her IG but That is not confirmed. There's not confirmed reports. I like that. I mean, you can, you're always, you know, at danger to, I mean, if she can, if she can blast a double on Brian Ortega, she can do it on Amanda Hebas. I mean, that's, that's one way to view it.

Or, you know, maybe now she's like, she's, she's in too much of the post-wedding bliss. You know, she doesn't have her A-game on. You're Carla Sparza in this. You know, I mean, we saw what happened. I mean, dude. We saw what happened when Aspazza got married. That's why she's. lost a Wiley Zhang, frankly.

Nothing to do with skilled talent or athleticism. Dude, she is like, she is active on Instagram and there's not one picture of their wedding. Like, you would think she would get something up. Man, maybe she's waiting, you know, wedding photos take a while to come back, you know? Right. She posted nine. She changed your name.

She posted nine pictures from her and Brian Ortega's trip to a bad bunny concert. Maybe they got married at that bad bunny concert. We don't get one. We don't get one wedding picture, but we get nine pictures from a bad bunny concert. Maybe they got married at that bad bunny concert. I don't know. All I'm saying is her name changed. And now I don't know if I can feel confident there.

I'm more worried about the Brian or about the bad bunny concert on October 2nd, just two short months ago than I am. Just partying it out. I mean, Funkmaster was there too. Al Jermaine Sterling commented that concert was lit. Fire emoji, fire emoji. Fire emoji, fire. Three T's on the lit, so phone master must have a great time.

Must have a great, the champ. Just having a great time. I mean, shout out to the champ, bro. He was at PFL. The man's around everywhere. Man is making the rounds these days. Yeah, I mean. With Henry Sehudo doing nonsense.

Tracy Ortiz. Tracy, wow, I just said Ortega. Tracy Cortez. I was reading her Instagram. No, you know what? It just makes you feel more confident. about her ground game that she's with Brian. Brian's never let me down. He definitely, you know, that loss at U.S.

Long Island definitely didn't hurt the wallet for me. Definitely. So, yeah, I mean, this might just be, this might be my origin. I don't think you can blame Brian for that or his body let you down. I know. He did it. His body betrayed you. I actually really like T-City. Listen, I mean, this could be my origin story. The Ortega family could become the villains that I just fade,

relentlessly after that. Fantastic. Or they just become my favorite family in MMA. Hey, you know, we'll see. Only one way. Only one way to find out. Only one way to find out. And that's, that's Tracy Cortez-Ortega plus 100.

There it is. I think we still have a couple fights to talk about. God, I wish we didn't. God, I wish. So many fights. We still have three fights left, but this next one are. I don't know if you have any action on it, but it will be very quick. It is a lightweight bout.

Tom Levy going up against Janaro. Valdez. This will take me no time at all. Natan Levy minus 190, Valdez plus 160. I played the under as soon as it opened, plus 140. Janaro Valdez is in a fight. I knew I was going to play the under going into this. He loves the brawl. Just go back and watch the frivola fight.

I taped that one for UFC 281. Guy got knocked down like six times in one round. Eleven fights. 11 finishes. Yes, I know Levy is a decision maker, but Valdez will dictate the pace of this. He will make it crazy if it goes to the ground just because of how chaotic his style is. I think Nathan

Don Levy is live for a sub. He's got three in his pro career, three in his amateur career. As long as Gennaro Valdez is in a fight, I don't expect it to go to a decision. Sucinct. I have no thoughts on the matter. I trust everything you say implicitly. All right. Then let's move on.

Now we only have two fights to talk about. Featherweight out. Marcelo Rojo. James Carl's fighter? Yeah. Can people in Jersey bet on this? I actually am curious. I would assume not.

Jersey's a little too far out of my way to be able to go to, though I am moving there soon. You can't just hop on over, catch the train to Jersey. I actually am moving there very soon, so I'll be able to check that. If you're from Jersey, let us know if you can bet on Marcelo Rojo, because that will be crazy if you can't bet on this fight. Like, that will actually, that'll be big news. That'll be pretty nuts. Anyway, you can get Francis Marshall at minus 155, Marcella Rojo at plus 135. You've got action.

I don't tell me. Sure do. I'm taking Francis Marshall inside the distance at plus 110. Marcelo, I mean, outside of the whole Krause stuff, I'm not sure he's a very good fighter for being real. He's also 34 and a bantam weight, so none of these speak great things to him. Francis Marshall, good little prospect, you know, 6 and 0, only 23 years old, looked very solid in his rise up. 5 and O as an amy. Like, dude,

dude's got working with something here. Rojo, this feels like a set-up fight for the new contender series guy. And let me tell you, Francis Marshall, not like a huge finisher, but he is mostly had finishes,

but largely over not great competition when he's fought some better guys. He's gone to the cards. Marcelo Rojo, man, it hates the cards. Just it hates them. He, hey last time this man went to a decision 2016 on tough on the ultimate fighter

last time he went to a decision in real life we don't know there are a couple of performances from the regional that just say win or loss don't have an actual result as a finish there but it could be as as 2012 is the last time we have a confirmed decision that Marcelo Roja went to

this man that was in the tough house. This man loves to get finished or finish people. It's not going to the cards. I think Marshall has just an advantage in this fight all around. I kind of frankly think he's a little bit better in every facet of the game at this point just because I'm fading Rojo

because I think he's old and bad. Yeah, give me, I'm getting plus 110 for it. So give me Francis Fire Marshall inside the distance. I'm actually really glad you said that because you know what Marcello's response? responsible for? He won a fight by illegal bite? Is that what you're going to,

because that's my favorite Marcella Roja fact. I mean, that is a fantastic fact. Fantastic stat. Not a lot of dudes have won fights via bite before. Marcelo is responsible for the birth of third round, Jordane. Oh, I forgot about third round Jordan. I mean, just every man.

Mythical fighter, third round. Third round Jordan. Even though he has as many third round losses as he does wins. The one win in the third round. Dude's got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. UFC fights. He has one win in the third round. Mythical third round.

Everyone's got to get their third round Jordan bets in. You know if Jordane's fighting, that's going to be trending. It's a lock. And who's the man that got knocked out in the third round by Charles Jordain? It was Marcello Roja. I mean, I'm glad. you're fading him. Yeah, got a faded.

The third round Jordan is just. The real third round mythical fighter is Y'O. Romero. Everyone needs to know that. Everyone needs to learn that. Derek Lewis also had a good stretch where he was a, like his third rounds were, were impressive. But yes, Yowell is the one, the true third round fighter.

Yes, there is no doubt about it. All right, let's finish this off. It's a women's straw weight bout. Yasmine Haragi. I was to say, you did the prep for it. So let's make sure you stick the landing. here. Huregi.

Yasmine Huregi. Yes, I've listened to this a million times. I wrote it down phonetically, and when I go back to it, it is still tough. I mean, Huregi, it is a tough one. Versus Estella Nunez, right now you can get Yasmine for minus 305, Nunez for plus 255. This fight was supposed to happen back at UFC San Diego in August. I had the, you know, curtain jerker. I got a little action down.

We were talking off air. You know I love the curtain jerk. action and I just couldn't talk myself into a bay here. Yeah, I might just get a... Yeah, I might just get a parlay kilt on the top, but I did... Oh, then you don't have to stress about it. Tough trusting the undefeated prospect that hasn't really been like thoroughly tested. But like just watching back her fight against Lucinda or UFC debut, I did think she got better as

it went along and just like an absolute banger of a fight for two of these women. I think she's just the faster striker here. Yeah, Nunez probably has the more power, but I'm not. not really worried about a knockout in this situation. She also does have the option to take the fight to the ground. It is clearly Estella Nunez's weakness going to the ground. And we saw her do it in her pre-UFC fights. Nunez, she's probably better than the O&2 UFC record.

But like she hasn't really impressed me. Like, it's not like she's fighting great competition. Sam Hughes last time out. I think Yasmin is the better prospect. And I think she gets it done. How she gets it done? I don't know. But I do think that she's the one that gets her hand raise,

gets 210 and O. Parlayed that with Mateus Nicolao and Tyson Fury by KOTKO. Okay. I mean, I like, I didn't even look at boxing line. So what's that at? Like a minus 330 or something. So yeah, it sounds about right. Minus 310, Nicolao minus 335.

Riga at minus 335 pays out of plus 123. Man, Tyson Fury, just a casual. minus 2,500 for Derrick Chisota. Yeah, I mean, it's already beaten the dude twice, and I feel like he has only gotten better in eight years since the first fight. Kayla Harrison beat Larissa Pacheco twice, and we saw that goes. That is true. Throwing it out there.

That is true. Also, I love the books in this. Like, Fury is minus 2,500, Chazora plus 1,200. They are baking in such an enormous. big there. Yeah, like, give me a break on that. Just absolute ridiculousness. One thing I will say, just like

against that is Chisora is 38, whereas Larissa Pacheco came into her own and like is 28 and like beefed up. Did you see the picture of her against Andrage? No. Dude, like she's like,

she's scrawny like me, bro. Like, and now she is massive. I mean, you heard Kayla say it. after. She was way stronger there than the last couple of times. You know, sometimes a good strength and conditioning program. That's all it takes.

Also, Derek Chazora is one in three in his last four fights, and the one win came by the decision. Is that good? I mean, don't know if you've ever checked Tyson Fury's record out, but dude has yet to lose. Hmm. Well, that seems not as good as Derek Chazora. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Tyson Fury probably gets this one done.

I'm just going to trust them. Bold. It's a bold statement, but I respect it. I appreciate that. I appreciate the respect that you're given for me. Yeah, maybe I'll end up doing Fury Chazora doesn't go to a decision. Tuvasa Pavlovich under two and a half and Hill, DuCote over one and a half. This one 334.

So just a stewy, stewy bit of chalk there. But okay, let's do it. I mean, that's what I'm always down for. Last two things I have to get into. I'll say, we've got one more thing we've got to talk before we bounce as this episode is going long. One championship. Where'd you find these? Bet online.

Okay. Dot a g. Dot a g. Yeah, a little sketchy.g. But, uh, yeah, our boy RDR is going out. Like, he is, uh, he's, he's gonna make it happen on, on Friday. Have we championed the world, baby? Uh, so like, three-weight class champion.

Three, uh, ever happened? I don't, I'm actually, don't believe that's ever happened. So that's what I thought, too. Tapology actually hasn't messed up. Oh, oh, is this for the light heavy? Yeah, he's actually defending the light heavy, unfortunately. That's garbage. Why? Like, why? That's, that's what everyone's saying.

But right now, right now, Now, you can get our boy right here to rid of it, plus money, plus 105. That's, um, this, how is this for the light heavy? This is so stupid. Yeah, I know, you got to go to Onechampionship.com to see. I know, but it's so dumb because Malcolon's their interim heavyweight champ. That's what I'm saying. So this is so stupid.

Oh, this is dumb. Whatever. He will be the spiritual heavyweight champion of the world as well once he wins. What did you get him at? What's the price? I already are at the Dutch night. All right. So, like, dude, the odds were just a roller coaster last night.

I took him at plus 170, dropped like minus 150. Now he's back up to plus 105. It feels like he's settled in at that plus 105 number. Well, plus 150 is a tremendous number. I mean, I don't have this bet available to me at any place in the world at the moment because I don't have betonline. 8.g.

But whenever this does become available at any of the books that I have access to, I'll certainly be riding with my boy, been staying in the dark, the Dutch night for a long time. Three division champion, baby, let's go. Yeah, if he does lose, if he were to lose this fight, it would just further just drive my, you know, my temporary hatred toward the Netherlands.

I mean, we would take that Friday night right into USA Netherlands on Saturday morning. Yeah, that's, that's tough. You know, I got to say that seems like that might be a tough, tough one for us. But, you know, it's fine. We'll split the difference. We get one, we can root, we can cheer on the Dutch, Friday night, Saturday, mortal enemies forever. All right, well, Rainier to Ritter. I'm also on Roberto Salditch making his one debut.

should just be a great week in a combat sport should just be a great weekend of sports period but that's it we made it that's the end we did it

so many fights so many fights were talked about so many things hour 25 on our end that's gonna do it anything else no go dogs

go dogs go yanks UFC 282 next week, Magomed Ancolaev versus Jan Lojofich for the undisputed light heavyweight title. Love that. Love. I mean, I hate everything about what happened, but I love the potential for you and for me and for everybody with that particular fight. But that's a story for next week. That's next week's time. We've already taken way too much time. Way too much time. See you next week. Love you guys. network.