MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Tai Tuivasa Go Full 'Bam Bam' Against Marcin Tybura At UFC Vegas 88?
Episode Date: March 13, 2024The UFC is back in the world's most famous APEX. Following the sensational UFC 299, the world's leading MMA promotor returns to its home base for UFC Vegas 88 this weekend, headlined by a heavyweight ...fight between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura, so of course the No Bets Barred boys are here with a full breakdown of the card. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew speak fondly of the wonder that was last weekend in combat sports, where UFC 299, Anthony Joshua vs. Francis Ngannou, and a Cedric Doumbe fight all took place. Then it's on to the business at hand and a deep dive into UFC Vegas 88. Can Tai Tuivasa recapture the "Bam Bam" magic and knock out Marcin Tybura? Will Kennedy Nzechukwu like the new "Kenny Nunchucks" nickname Jed has chosen for him? How will the other Bryan Barberena, the other "Bam Bam", do on Saturday? All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 81 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
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What is going on, y'all?
We are back another edition of No Bet's Bar.
This time, UFC Apex 88.
One step closer to the great UFC Apex 100.
And it's a UFC card.
It's definitely a UFC card, Jed.
How are we feeling, man?
The March continues to Apex 100.
This is.
This is just another stepping stone on the race to Apex 100.
I'm so excited for us when that day finally comes.
I don't know.
We've got to do a blowout episode.
Are we going?
Are we dropping the 1500 for the VIP experience?
Oh, maybe we just should.
I mean, I feel like it's just like a necessity.
It depends. It depends how much the UFC decides to invest in it.
You know, if they, because it would be fitting, right, for them to not care.
Oh, yeah, no sell it.
But maybe for 100, maybe they do care a little more.
And then I don't know.
We'll have to see.
We've still got a little bit of time.
But before the end of this year, my friend, we will be Apex 100.
And it'll be a pretty special moment.
So, like, the only tickets that I can find for this weekend are,
are $4,000 apiece.
Pricy.
Yeah, that's the craziest part is that they may get this VIP experience,
so like the tickets are just like ridiculously expensive.
I mean, yeah, that's a bit pricey, yeah.
I can't, I can't do that.
I can't do that.
I feel like we could get reimbursed, right?
We just put in the ticket.
Just take, hey, yeah, just caught me this four grand, Vox Media.
Thank you.
This is a business trip.
Thank you very much.
Let's see.
Here we go.
Packages for Vittori versus Allen.
That'll be UFC Apex 90,
which, you know, is obviously still a special event.
Oh, starting at 3,000 per person.
Man.
That's a lot.
Yeah, I'm thinking UFC, all right,
April 27th starts at 1750 per person.
Regardless, I'm thinking that just can't happen.
Probably not, but again, let's wait and see where we're at.
You never know.
Maybe we'll win the lotto before this.
you know what's crazy is you can get a the championship level VIP ticket for Atlantic City which is obviously a fight night coming up
you get premium floor level seats a dedicated VIP entrance happy hour with UFC fighter and a meet and greet
post-fight octagon experience to get pictures an official UFC fight night atlantic city ticket
and that's only $1,300 per person I mean but
that's not at the world's most famous arena.
So, you know, it's just an Atlantic city somewhere.
Because, again, you're forgetting the entire Apex experience really just comes with all of that
because it's four dudes in a gym watching fist fights, you know?
Sure.
That is true.
Last week, 299, unbelievable card.
Did well on 299.
Did not do well on boxing and PFL.
Yeah, I was, I was,
on the fight going longer in Francis and Gano, Anthony Joshua. That did not happen. Uh, did not happen at
all. I sure didn't. Cedric Dume got a splinter. You know, it was just a rough scene. So it was nice to
start bad and good, uh, rather than the inverse. But, uh, yeah, still a down week for me,
but, you know, I counted as a winning week because I won on UFC and now we're going to win on
UFC again this week. Uh, how about you, my friend? Uh, I mean, we're just sticking just
straight to form, buddy. I, I, I love it.
lost a quarter of a unit because really amazing with how many bets you had as well.
I honestly, the fact that I only lost that much was impressive.
And I got to tell you, once again, as has been the case just about every week,
we've done this show this year, came down to the main event, had a position on Cheeto,
was never close to winning that bet.
I want to be clear, it was never competitive.
But, you know, I was right there.
I was a little in the green heading into the main.
event and uh and then that happened and if if i hadn't taken the chat gpte exacto bet if i hadn't put
a quarter of a unit on p yonder to win in the third round if i just listened to chat ch pt overall
uh we would have broken even so instead we're down just a little bit uh i took a major position
after our show on uh anthony joshra straight up because the number kept coming
down. Like I had a decent position on him by decision and I felt okay about that. Super wrong. Couldn't
have been more incorrect about that call. But the number kept coming down. I got it at minus 340 for
Anthony Joshua's straight up and I was like, this is, I should have, I should have bet more,
but I put an unreasonably large sum on that, which saved me in the boxing realm. Then like you,
the doom-based splinter. I didn't foresee that one, Connor.
Didn't see the Splinter TKO coming.
Tough to add that into the capping.
Yeah.
Hindsight's obviously 2020,
but the amount of money that I had on Francis and Ga-
or on Tyson Fury against Francis and Gano,
I should have just been doing the same.
Same thing, yeah.
Because it really is,
what happened in that match is what I expected to happen
against Tyson Fury.
So hindsight's 2020.
We went down with our boy,
or I went down with our boy,
hoping that he wouldn't get knocked down or anything like that.
But that's the game we play.
Speaking of boys, Connor, tough for you last week.
I mean, arguably the single biggest boy in the history of this show for you takes his first L.
Yeah, he's won me a lot of money.
He has won me a lot of money over the years.
And he looked very much like he was on your way to do it again.
Yeah, between parlay pieces, between props, between everything.
Yeah, Jilton Almeda has been kind to me over the years.
And yeah, going into round two, it was looking.
looking like he was going to continue to be kind to me.
I mean, the way that he was just absolutely manhandling Curtis Blades in that first round,
it was very impressive.
But yeah, I got caught with something coming in for a takedown.
And then just, I don't know if he was, excuse me, I don't know if he was like already out.
And that's why he didn't move at all.
As Curtis Blades landed like 15 to 20 elbows and hammer fist down in a row on his head.
But yeah, it's unfortunate.
It saw a lot of like fraud check.
I don't really know if that's the case.
It's kind of just heavyweight MMA.
Is anybody that loses to Curtis Blades now a fraud?
People don't understand.
It's still Curtis Blade season, Connor.
That man will be the heavyweight champion of the world one day.
The greatest prospect in UFC history.
The man has always been the next champion for the last seven years.
Yeah, I mean, he'll be back.
He'll be back.
He's still pretty young.
He's still, you know, filling into that heavyweight.
frame. I definitely do not think he goes back down to light heavyweight. I saw a couple of people
immediately, like, time to go back to 205 for J-Leth. And it's like, let's just relax. Like, we lost
the Curtis Blades, top-tier heavyweight. Like, we can come back from this guys. It's, it's going to
be okay. I felt like this weekend was like the weekend of, of being reactionary. It was like,
Cedric, Cedric gets the splinter. And it's just like, so glad the UFC didn't blow a bag on
this guy. Could you imagine how dumb they would look? And Ghana loses. It's just like,
He should have never left.
What an idiot.
This guy is a complete failure.
And then, you know, you get into UFC 299.
Jailton loses like, now to go to 205.
Dustin wins.
It's just like, can you imagine being so stupid to put your money on BSD?
Like it's just like the reactionary takes that I saw this weekend were we're firing off.
It's a big weekend.
Whenever there's a big, big weekend like that, plus people were already primed, too,
because heading into it after we recorded.
But before the weekend, we get the Jake Paul Mike.
Tyson so everybody's everybody's ready to start shooting from the hip with their takes yeah it's
this is good energy i'm i'm pro it it was look last week i love the word takes i love the word takes
it's literally just an opinion it's just your opinion no it's like it's like a take is even
less of an opinion like because that's the critical as a take man myself a take is a it's a loosely
held opinion even you know if if there's the scale of firm belief to
to I don't have any opinion at all.
Take as much closer to the latter side.
I like that scale.
I actually like that scale.
Yeah.
So it was great.
Last week it was incredibly fun.
I mean,
it was so good.
I wanted to give a pass for this week.
And I'm even willing to give a pass to all those people out there just firing from the hip
because that's what this is about.
It's fun times right now,
baby.
I mean,
it really is crazy getting on Twitter after some of these events.
Like I always growing up in like the NBA and NFL space,
I always thought those fans were reactionary.
I think MMA fans take the cake.
Oh, for sure.
I really do.
You're the word, like, the phrase, you know,
you're only as good as your last fight.
That's been around combat sports since time and memorial.
But it is so prevalent here.
I mean, look, we had Demetius Johnson,
a man I respect immensely,
both for his fighting ability and his mind about the sport,
popping off afterwards being like,
I think Anthony Joshua would beat Francis Singano to cage fighting.
I think that would happen.
It's basically a striking battle.
We saw how that win was...
I mean, unless Francis changes up, DJ, my brother in Christ, DJ, we just saw Francis change
it up against Cyril God.
And that's not even factoring in the whole leg kicking thing.
Come on, man.
But it takes central.
Everybody was feeling it.
The energy was high.
It's great.
Fire them off.
Fire them off.
I mean, it's a great time to be alive.
It's a great time to be on social media in the combat space.
especially with everything going on.
A little bit of a lull, a little bit of a dip here for the next few weeks.
But, you know, it's just you get the energy right.
You get the power back for UFC 300 in April.
And we still got fights, which is a good thing.
And we start this weekend with UFC Apex 88.
Tai Tuivasa.
Before we hop into that, we got to throw one last shout out on 299.
Our boy, our boy, 10-day Tony.
I mean, he gave us the lock of the century, the millennium.
I don't know.
I don't remember if it was.
the century, the millennium, whatever it was.
But Roblese to spawn, Spain, 18 seconds.
Heavyweight overs died swiftly.
Yeah, he's a problem, man,
and I'm really looking forward to watching a fight
because the fact that he got that knockout,
like moving backwards is just so crazy.
He landed like 85% of his strikes in that fight.
He's 35, too, which is he's still got time in the heavyweight division.
That's a baby.
Just keep matching him up, dude, and I will continue to watch him
because any guy that comes in like that at the heavyweight division is
is fireworks to watch.
Another shout out, JDM on the flip side.
The two Jays, my two boys, Jelton and Jack.
At least we got, it was like a metaphor for my weekend.
Started bad with Jilton, ended great with Jatim.
JDM hurt me, though, because I had him by decision.
Because I was like, oh, yeah.
And then he wasn't going to win that decision.
No.
But then he did win the first.
fight so credit to him.
But I did just want to throw a shout-out, Tony.
Because if you do something, like throw out a lock of the millennium.
No matter the line.
It better come through.
And the fact that it came through in 20 seconds, sure, maybe Josh Friesian shouldn't have
charged up, hands-down, chin up in the air against a bronze medal, Skarteca.
But, you know, sometimes that's just going to happen.
So.
Listen, in the lock of millennium, dude, it doesn't matter that he was like minus 300 or whatever.
where if you could go to a money market manager and he's like,
I can guarantee you just by the end of this week,
we'll have a 30% increase in your money.
Would you take it?
I'd take it, and that's what Tony gave.
In the day of the week, yeah.
I mean, it's fantastic.
Wow, how can we do that, Mr. Market Money Manager?
We're going to put all of your money on Roblese to Spain.
We're buying some Cuban real estate,
and that real estate takes place in the Octagon this weekend
at UFC 299.
Everyone else have a good day.
All right.
Main event,
UFC Apex 88,
Taitui Vasa,
taken on Marcyne,
Tybura,
closely lined
affair going down.
Minus 25,
Taitoivasa,
plus 105,
Tybura.
Listen,
I mean,
it's criminal
that Taitoivas is
fighting the apex.
It just feels like a guy
that should be
on a short list of dudes
that shouldn't be
fighting at the apex.
He always walks out
to a fun song.
he buys into the crowd.
He is, if he's going to win, it's almost exclusively going to be by knockout.
And then when he gets the knockout, he's going to get up on the cage.
He's going to grab someone's shoe and he's going to chug a beer out of that shoe.
Now we got him in the apex, no crowd, yada, yada, yada.
That's beside the point.
I think he's live for a K.O. here in the very first round, Marcine Taibir been knocked
out five times in his career.
It just feels like if Tai Taitoivas is going to win, he's going to come in here.
He's going to scrap.
He's probably going to throw Tybira off of him a couple times.
he's going to catch the chin and he's going to put him out.
Do I trust that to happen?
I just don't know, man.
I went back and watched that Volkov performance,
and I know the size discrepancy, obviously,
was not in Thai's favor there.
But, man, he just got beat like a drum, dude.
It was rough.
And there's a world where Ty Biori can take this thing to the mat
and have similar success.
My pick is going to be Tai Tai Tui Voss around 1-KO,
but there's no bet for me on the main.
So I've got two bets and they are both on Tai Tuivasa because I love it
Well I mean last week listeners avid listeners the show remember that I've debuted a new gimmick and that gimmick is just betting on whoever has the coolest nickname on the fight card last week that was on Osu Amabayev
which his
Spine Ripper
Spine splitter
Spine splitter
Yeah my mistake
It's something different
Like in the actual language
But I don't have it up in front of me
I don't remember
But I was like yeah it's cool
He absolutely won
3027 so I did not bet him to win straight
Because I'm a fool
I made some extra changes there
But the bet itself
Of just picking the guy to win
That's 1 and 0
We're gonna keep that going
Because bam bam time Taito Evas
I mean that's just
I mean, look at him.
It's some solid nicknames on this card, by the way.
Shout out to a couple of dudes on here.
We got some good ones, but I got to be back on my boy, Bam Bam.
And I'm just going to go ahead and get ahead of this, Connor,
because avid listeners, they might be saying, which Bam Bam, Jed?
If you know one thing about me, I love a gimmick parlay.
There are two Bam Bambs in MMA, and they are both fighting in this fight card.
I'm obviously tagging them up together.
So I liked Ty Tui Vasa straight anyway outside of any gimmicks,
but I can just plug him into all the gimmicks,
and it works like just gangbusters for me.
But I do genuinely like his chances against Tibera.
A little less so with Brian Barbarina, but we'll get to that.
I mean, Tui Vasa has not looked good lately,
but the way he loses is to dudes who have legitimate,
dangerous offense, and that is just not Marcyne Tibera.
if he loses this fight,
I think he's just all the way out,
which would be a shame,
because Bam Bam's that like the Bam Bam Bam moment.
I mean, that was just so electric, Connor.
I think that that moment's coming back.
I think this is a good style matchup for him to get back.
And he's got the coolest nickname on the card,
so for sure we're backing him.
My very next question of you once you said you were backing him
because of his nickname was if you were going to do the Bam Bam Parlay.
I saw that.
I thought of you, not taking it,
but I definitely thought of you.
I mean,
I don't love the Barbarina part,
but we can get to that in a little bit.
And also,
just so we're clear,
not all nicknames are created equal.
Tai Tuivasa Bam Bam Bam is better than Brian Bam Bam Barbarina.
Like it's still a solid Bam Bam for Brian Barbarina.
Like still a solid nickname,
but I think Ty wears it better, you know?
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Sure does.
It feels like it fits him with his body type.
the co-main event, Brian Battle, taking on Andj Lusa. And right now, Brian Battle is your favorite
minus 175, Onj Lusa plus 145. Speaking of nicknames, I'm going with Poo-Bair here. I've backed Brian
Battle a couple times in the past. It's a pretty good nickname. Actually, both these guys,
the Last Ninja is not bad for, uh, for Anglusa. Uh, like the size advantage here for Brian
Battle, three inches taller, three inches of reach. I like he's going to, I think he's going to be
able to mix in the kicks really well. I think he's the better grappler, even if
Anjulus does go for the takedowns. We've seen Brian Battle struggle with takedowns in the past.
A lot of people point to the Renot-Fock-R-R-Fact-Ret fight, but that's a different beast in my opinion.
I mean, Renat has had a lot of success at the UFC level since that fight.
Don't love seeing 14 minutes of control time, but I just don't see Anjolucin doing that to him here.
And I like the gas tank, man. I like the gas tank of Brian Battle. So I rate Brian Battle pretty
well excited to see him get back into the octagon and i will be backing him on the money on
i love this because we're at odds my good sir i have never picked and josa to win a fight
inside the ufc however many he has four or five whatever it is better get picked against him in
every single one of them that changes today because why not uh but mostly i like how he has looked
lately his last couple of fights on lusa and granted if you're going on strength of schedule
Brian Battle has fought much more difficult opposition, certainly, than Reese McKee and AJ Fletcher, you know.
But I just do like what Anjolusa has looked like, particularly in that Reese McKee fight.
I guess when I say strength of schedule, they did both fight AJ Fletcher.
They did both fight, similar there.
But I thought he looked really good.
I am concerned about the cardio aspect.
That is certainly the thing here that's the biggest to me.
But I think on the feet, Brian Battle has imposed.
But he still just seems slow to me.
Andge,
Luce is going to outwork him, out volume him on the feet.
If he takes to the ground,
then it gets interesting just because I do think
battle is the better grappler, to your point.
I'm just not sure he'll do that.
And I think Anzlouca is probably good enough to,
as a defensive wrestler to keep that up.
I expect him just to be a pretty competitive fight,
but I just think And Juselousa will outwork him
as long as the gas tank holds up.
So we've put an underdog better on Anjlusa.
tough for me to go against the Swiss, you know.
I mean, that is my homeland.
Tough to go against them.
Your homeland is, I did not realize Switzerland was your homeland.
Oh, amazing place.
I mean, it's a lovely place.
Cannot wait to go back.
So yeah, tough for me to go against the Swiss,
but I will be backing Poobert here.
Let's keep it rolling to the featured bout.
Kennedy and Zichu going up against Oven St. Prue.
Your biggest favorite on the card,
Kennedy minus 575
OSP plus 425
What do you make of this fight?
Buddy
I mean
I have two things to say about this fight
The first is
You know me
I've been believing in
in Canadian Zuchuku for a long time
And it has continued to bite me in the ass
Sometimes it look great
Sometimes look dumb
Now you want me to believe in him
To the tune of minus 500
Minus 575
Oh I'm sorry minus 575
I can't do it.
Just can't do it.
But I would like to, I don't know if this is out there anywhere else, if it is.
I'm sorry for stepping on your corner people.
But in the process of this, I'm recreating a nickname for this man because I got to tell you,
African Savage, that's just not working for me.
It's generic, I guess, Nigerian, but African Savage is just not a cool nickname.
I'd like to rebrand him Kenny Nunchucks.
and I feel pretty good about Kenny Nunchucks as a nickname.
And if he consents to going with this, then moving forward, I'll exclusively bet on Kenny
Nunchucks.
So somebody get it out to him.
Let him know.
Kenny Nunchucks is the new name.
And if he's like, all right, hell yeah, then I'll just bet him every time until the end of his
career.
Yeah, I feel like that's a valid argument.
I feel like that's a valid argument.
I think Kennedy would welcome that and really be pushed by the fact that you would bet on him
every time for the rest of his career.
I mean, you got to get support.
You got to build support any way you can.
And considering his last fight, he just got absolutely run over by Dustin Jacoby.
He's in a spot where he needs help, you know?
Yeah.
So trusting him at minus 575 is just not something I'm going to do in this situation,
especially against the guy in OSP that can hurt you.
But on the flip side of that, I don't know how much OSP wants to be there.
I don't know how much he should be getting in the Octagon this weekend, 40 years old,
been knocked out in three of his last four fights.
I think Kennedy is going to knock him out.
That is what I think is going to happen.
So instead of paying the minus 575 on him, I'm going to take by KO at minus 145.
Yeah, he had one standing guillotine, but eight of his 12 wins come by knockout.
OSP, like I said, he's been knocked out in three of his last four fights, five times overall,
40 years old
I think that
it's just what's going to happen
feel like they're going to come out in the first round
chuck them
Kennedy's going to catch him
and OSP is going to fall
I mean I absolutely hope you win
I just but when inevitably
Kennedy Dunchucks
fumbles the bag
just know that I know how you feel
because I have been in that room
many times at this point
brother if he gets knocked out by OSP
It's just like, man.
You ain't got much left, Kennedy.
You ain't got much left.
He's a maddening fighter because he has all the tools to be something.
And it's just not getting there.
Doesn't have a great chin either.
I mean, he's been put out.
It's tough.
All right, let's move on to a banger of a fight.
Christian Rodriguez, moving up to featherweight to take on Isaac Dolgarian.
Right now, Dolgarian, your favorite, minus 192.
Rod coming back at plus 160.
Yeah, bang, I think this is going to be a great fight.
People's champ, Christian Rodriguez, took the O of Raul Roses and Cameron Simon.
Now, you know, few misses at Bantamweight.
I think the last two fights and on Contenner Series he missed at Bantamweight.
Now he's moving up to Featherweight where he has fought before.
I fought Jonathan Pierce there.
Unfortunately, took an L fighting Dolgarian, who is just a savage in there.
between his pro and amy, 10 fights, 10 wins, all by first round finish.
I think this is two exciting prospects in there.
They're getting a great matchup in this one.
Don't know who wins.
I feel like I see a lot of people on Christian Rodriguez, but the line keeps on dropping towards
Isaac Dolgarian.
What I did take is fight does not go to a decision.
The way that Isaac Delgarian finished Francis Marshall was just a very violent affair
And like I said, amateur pro, 10 fights, 10 wins, all first round finishes.
I don't have any evidence that says he's going to just gas out.
Like, I haven't seen anything from that.
So if he continues it into the second and third round, I don't see why he can't get
a finish there as well.
And if he does gas out, Crod, seven of his 11 fights have not gone to the decision.
I'm paying minus 1.30 for it.
When you got a guy that just gets first round finishes, I just got to play it.
It's just in my principle.
So that's what I'll be taking.
Fight does not go to a decision.
Searrod, Isaac Dolgarian.
Yeah.
If this fight goes to a decision,
I'll be fairly surprised,
given the way,
I mean, just like you said,
that Dolgarian fights,
any concern at all
if you are a Dolgarian backer
that our boy,
Crod has never lost
to an undefeated fighter.
Because you brought it out,
I mean, he's out here.
Oh, Roses Cameron, Simon, Simon.
He's out here just ruining prospects, and Dolgarian might be the latest.
Because of that, I just have opted to stay away here.
Dolgarian, I think, should win, but he's really green.
And C. Rod has been doing great things lately.
So I just stayed entirely away from this fight.
So against fighters that have never recorded a loss in his professional career.
No, professionally.
Beat Jose Leon, beat John Fam.
Who could forget the Ryan McIntosh fight?
Unfortunately, Ryan McIntosh has 36 professional loss.
So he's also undefeated against dudes with 36 professional losses.
Yeah, that's a good point.
It's a smaller sample size.
Yeah, so can Sea Rod dole out his third straight one to the guys with these O's?
That's going to be very interesting.
He changed his nickname to And One instead of Crod?
That's not.
That's now you're really cooking something.
Kennedy Nung-Chucks was pretty good.
and one is amazing if that's what he does.
He just keeps adding ones to be well record.
It'd be really good.
Really good.
Midwest Chapa,
get any consideration for nickname of the week.
No, no, no.
I just don't like anything about that, honestly.
Doesn't hit me in my feels.
Not anything.
I will say it is unique.
There's not going to be a much other Midwest Chappas running around.
I like, I like it.
It's unique.
Let's keep it rolling on the main card.
Women's Bantamweight bout,
the premier division in the UFC.
Pani Kianzad taking on Macy Chazon,
and you can get Macy Chazon for the short price of minus 238,
Kianzad plus 195.
All right, so she is on missed weight at featherweight.
Now she's at Bannam weight.
I'm not racing the player at minus 238,
but I mean, if she makes the weight,
she's going to be the bigger fighter.
she'll likely win
but I'm just not gonna
not gonna pay the juice on this one
first off
Pantyanzad Bonsai that's for my money
that's the second best nickname on the fight bar
Not bad
I'm glad it's the second best because I don't think she's gonna win
and if it was the best I just have to be backing her
I do think Jason probably wins
I don't feel massively confident
but she's gonna be like the bigger fighter
Canzad's fun but has never gotten there
but Connor we know where this is going buddy
this is a women's bannamweight fight
in 2023 women's ban on weight fights
went to decision 73% of the time
if Kianzad misses weight and this becomes a featherweight
slash catch weight fight 100% decision rate
on featherweight fights women's featherweight fights in the
UFC in 2023 we're taking overs
they've been by far my most successful bet this year
they just keep cash in there's
a women's Bannamway fight.
Because the price here is fairly big,
it's minus 360 for the over two and a half.
We've parlayed it.
Again, sneak preview, stay listening.
There's another women's Bannamway fight.
We're living our truths here, ladies and gentlemen.
Parlayed those two together for a women's Bannibalite
pacifist parlay.
Over's two and a half.
And we can get to that in a couple of fights here.
I look forward to it.
I truly am licking my chops for that one.
Let's finish out the main card.
Gerald Mearshardt taking on Brian Bam Bam Barberana.
Right now, GM3, your favorite, minus 245, Barbarana plus 200.
We know where you're at.
I got nothing.
The path to victory is clear for GM3.
Very clear.
Take him down and submit them.
Like, that's just what you got to do.
If stay standing, Brian Barbarana is live.
He is a dog.
He can finish people.
But if it doesn't, I think he's getting tapped.
It's, I mean, it's just going to go so poorly for him.
It like the stats, I don't have the stats pulled up in front of me because it was like 30% six defensive wrestle rate or whatever, but just the numbers.
Markman Murdof, Murdof, him down 13 out of 16 times.
Gunner Nelson, one out of two, but he tapped him immediately.
Huffield de Sondros, four out of six.
Matt Brown, five out of seven.
Like, he just, he is not stopping taketowns.
GM3 is the naturally bigger man, sort of a natural middleweight in there.
probably can get the taketowns,
but GM3 is also a guy
who you can get out of there.
Bam Bam's tough as they come.
There's a reason he's plus 205 or whatever,
but we got to live the parlay.
He's parlayed up with Ty.
Also have tie straight,
but parlayed up with Ty and we're going to hope
that Bam Bam can get it done in a real grimy way.
Yeah.
I mean, if you look at his last,
if you don't count the Robbie Lawler fight
and you look at his last seven fights,
he's been taken down 40 times.
Out of like 57 or something attempts.
I will say there is one sliver of hope in that.
And it is that Matt Brown and Darien Weeks took him down like over 50%.
And he won those fights.
Probably maybe shouldn't have won the Matt Brown fight.
But he did win those fight despite giving up a lot of takedowns.
If he can get taken down and survive and then just do the damage when he is on his feet, get back up.
There's a path, but this should be a GM3 fight if he can fight smart.
Yeah, I mean, these last seven wins are by submission, so I would not be surprised if that's what happens here.
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Let's roll on to the prelims.
Mike Davis taking on Natan.
and right now Mike Davis is a sizable favor minus 310 Natan Levy plus 250.
Other than the inactivity for Mike Davis, I mean, obviously, you know, these layoffs are
concerned. We haven't seen him about a year and a half now. I think Mike Davis is it will win
this fight. Like if he's coming in here healthy, ready to go, he's the much better striker in
this situation. I actually think he has the better wrestling as well. I like the cardio. I mean,
I think he wins this one by a clear decision or he could even finish Nathan Levy as well.
Well, here's the thing about that long layoff.
Natan Levy is coming off almost the exact same layoff.
That's great stat.
Mike Davis last fought October of 2022.
Natan Levy fought two months later in December.
So he is also coming off a pretty extended layoff.
And like you, I agree.
That would be the concern.
But Levy is coming off something similar.
Stylistically, I think that this fight lines up.
up. I mean, granted, a year and some change for both dudes, anything could be different either side of it.
So that's why, and with the price this large, I just don't have a bet, but I do think it's going to be a good night for Mike Davis.
I parlayed him up. I'll get to that second piece in just a little bit. But next up, Josianne Nunez.
Josian Josie Nunez, great nickname there. Taking on Chelsea Chandler. Right now, Chandler is the underdog plus 114.
Josian Nunez minus 135.
My pick is Chelsea Chandler
just because of how big she is
and the fact that Josian Nunez,
we saw how much she struggled with Farazahn,
size advantage that she had.
Not many people struggle with that test,
but I'm not betting on this.
I have no bets.
I mean, I'm betting the way you know
I'm betting I've taken the other two and a half.
I will say Josie has been historically
a finisher and opposed to this,
but her last two fights
have gone to decision.
She's fighting Chelsea Chandler,
who aside from having a major size advantage,
because basically everyone's going to have it against Josie,
you know,
Chelsea's a Caesar Gracie Stockton girl.
Like, those folks don't ever get put out.
Like, they're durable as all hell.
She's never been finished.
I don't think Jos is going to be the first one to do it
if she's having her way.
And Josie herself has been fairly tough,
so taking the over.
parlayed that up again with the Kianzaa chase on over and that pays out plus
115 for the women's Bannonweight pacifist parley
How about a Josian Nunez minus 250 on the over one and a half
And the Kianzat over one and a half minus 550
You get an over one and a half parley at minus 152
That's a great I mean that's a great price
That's tempting to me
It's a very good price I very much like that price
That is very tempting to me
I might have to add that I might have to add.
I will just say neither Nunez nor Chandler have ever been finished.
So I think there's,
because clearly that's the one that's more dangerous to not hit the over two and a half.
But if you're just going full safety measures,
totally understand it.
I know you'll have a one and a half.
And I think, again,
I think that's a great bet.
A big one and a half guy.
That's a good price.
Half their,
you know,
Justice Chandler,
been under it before.
I mean,
I'm only getting like,
on a $100 bet
when I'm getting like
60 extra bucks
for the over
two and a half parley
versus your over one and a half parley?
Might have to check it out.
Chelsea Chandler,
seven fights.
Got to appreciate that.
You got to appreciate that.
Got to.
How do you not appreciate that?
You know, seven professional fights.
She's got to appreciate it.
And she's, you know,
yeah, I might do it.
I might do it.
And honestly,
it feels like Josian Nunez
is a friend of the over one and a half.
If you look at her,
if you look at her fights,
you know,
uh,
He had three straight fights where she went over by one second, by one minute, and then by two minutes.
I might need to start asking the question, is she betting on herself in the overs?
Supplementing her income with over bets.
All right, I might add that.
I might add that.
All right, let's keep it rolling to a men's flyweight fight.
This one could be prime for some violence.
O'Day Osborne taking on Jafel Filo.
And right now, Filo is your favorite minus 180.
O'Day Osborne coming back at plus 150.
I do not have a bet here, but I was really tempted by Jafel inside the distance at minus 110.
He's finished 14 of his 15 wins, and O'Day Osborne has been finished in all four of his UFC losses.
Three times in his career, he has been subbed.
That feels like the most likely Pat the victory for Jafel Fielo here.
Look, I think we haven't really spoken about it, like pointedly.
I think we know that flyweight unders aren't necessarily back.
But I decided to just, you know, just throwing in for the nostalgia.
O'Day Osborne has been a very good flywood under man.
His career, six of his eight in the UFC have hit the under.
Fulio, a big finisher on the regional circuit.
Under two and a half rounds, minus 200 is what I got it at.
So I like it, just taking the shot, you know.
It'll just be fun.
Just want to feel alive again, Connie.
Yeah, all the time's sake.
All the time's sake.
Try to recap magic.
All right.
Next up, Tiago Moises, taking on Mitch Ramirez.
Right now you can get Tiago Moises for minus 360.
Mitch Ramirez coming back at plus 285.
Yeah, short notice Mitch Ramirez, man who got knocked out on the contender series,
taking on Tiago Moises, younger, more skilled, fought the much more difficult level of
competition, more experience.
uh moises is my pick yeah moises is my pick uh Mitch Ramirez was not that impressive
off the contender series given the fact that he got knocked out so good for him
shouts to you for finding a way into the comp anyway but uh I I believe the Tiago
moises will win honestly I think he's pretty good parley fodder I don't have
him in anything right now just because there was nothing else for me I might just
put him in an open parlay um just leave him as a leg to pair up
something in the future that's also open because big moisesk guy like he's he's my kind of fighter
you can do a little bit of everything super fun uh or at least him from me and like he's he's
going to lose to the guys he's supposed to lose to and he's going to beat the guys he's supposed to
beat he is going to be a brilliant gatekeeper to the top 20 uh and i'm pretty confident mitramier's
is not in the top 20 so yeah yeah i used uh teago moises s with mike davis that is uh that is my
That's a reasonable parlay.
That's what I'm rolling.
That's probably going to be a popular parlay this week.
I could see it.
I could see it.
Let's keep it rolling.
Josh Kulabal, taking on Danny Silva.
Right now you can get Danny Silva.
4 plus 160,
Koolabow, minus 192.
I think this is going to be a fun fight.
I mean, Danny Silva just gets into wars, dude.
Him and Angel Pacheco combined for 401.
It's fun of so.
Significant strikes in their contender series fight.
Coolabow, like, you try to,
for takedowns has never accomplished one.
He is 0 for 13 in his UFC career
on going for takedown. So I think
they just get after it. I think they
push the pace. Danny Silva
forces him to engage. Cool about
has power. So I think it's
fun. I don't have a bet, but I think this is a very
fun fight. Very fun fight.
Danny Silva, most recent season, the contender
series. He was in my big pause in a
puppy category as a prospect
to legitimately watch, make some noise.
Like you said, the fight with Angel
Pacheco was great. Pacheco,
even like that fight was super fun
Pacheco's making his debut later this month
the last card this month
whichever one that one is
in a couple weeks here
dude silver's just great man
fast good athlete got great boxing
he's he's gonna enter the UFC and be one of the better
boxers in the company
and I think that's gonna serve
him well against cool about
taking a dog shot on my boy Danny Silver
from Contender Series plus 161
I don't mind that at all
I think the volume could be overwhelming for Kulabau.
Because, I mean, you said it.
Josh Kulabow can't get takedowns.
And I think Danny Silva is the better boxer,
got the better mitts on him.
Maybe not as much pure power as Kulabalai has,
but it's not a slouch there.
And I know he can have the dog fights
because we saw it on Contender Series.
So I like the man.
I'm supporting him.
Yeah.
Shout out to Mr. Danny Silva.
Next up, Corey McKenna,
taking on Jacqueline Amaram.
And right now,
McKenna is your favorite at minus 125,
Ameram coming back at plus 105.
Anything on this women's straw weight bout?
Connie, you know my policy this year,
and I'm sticking with it.
I'm taking overs on the women's fights
because in 2023, straw weight bouts,
57% of them, Connor, went to decision.
Corey McKenna, I mean,
she's about 50-50, basically,
on whether she's going to get finished.
or decisions.
Jacqueline Amram
gone to one decision in her career.
So that's concerning.
But we're just playing the numbers game,
taking the over to minus 200.
So 100 will get you 50 on it.
And I'm riding that.
If I have to pick a side,
I'll probably pick McKenna.
She's just real young.
And I tend to favor youth as the upside factor.
You can get so much better between fight to fight
when you're 24 or whatever she is.
But I won't be sure.
shocked if Amram comes in, it's just a little better at this point in time.
Yeah, I feel, I like McKenna too.
The cardio is a big factor for me.
The submission defense, she's proven she's got some of that.
I like the wrestling.
I feel like it's Amiram's going to either suburb earlier.
McKenna is just going to keep it going throughout the three rounds and get it done.
So yeah, not much else to say on that one.
Also, Poppins, solid nickname for Golden.
Solid nickname.
All right.
I'm not a, that's a gym that I don't, not a huge fan of that gym, but Poppins great nickname.
Last fight that we'll talk about first fight of the night. That's Chad and Heliger taking on
Sharra Lampos Gregorio. And right now, Chad and Hellenger is the underdog plus 136.
Shera Lampos minus 162. I got nothing on this one, nothing on the curtain jerker for me.
Anything for you, good sir.
Yeah, another trial Lampos, another guy off the most recent season of the Contender series,
didn't think nearly as highly of him, but that was mainly an age factor.
Let me confirm this, but I think he's like 32.
Might just, might be a little younger than that.
He's 31.
He's about to be 32.
He turns 32 on the 31st.
And so that was really cut why I knocked him, but he showed a little bit of something.
He's got pretty solid boxing, good speed.
He's just a little old.
against the guy like Henleger,
I've just never been super impressed with him in his run.
And so because it's,
I don't know,
I felt weird because it's pretty light week for me this week,
considering last week I had like 23 bets down.
So I was like,
I could throw another backer on my contender series.
Boy,
what might as well.
So minus 155.
I've got a bet down on Gregorio.
I love it.
Yeah,
I'm keeping it nice and tight this week.
And that is the card.
UFC Apex.
We've done it.
88. We're back at the apex next week.
UFC Apex 89, Nami Yunis versus...
Hebas.
Heba.
So, Connor, before we exit,
have you looked at next week's card?
No, I have not.
Better or worse than this one?
I'm real confident it's worse.
The main event is better.
The main event's like an actually legitimately good fight,
interesting stakes, things that matter,
former UFC champion and beloved fighter in the main event.
Granted, it throws Nomi Unis in the apex or whatever.
The rest of that card, tough hang.
Yeah, man.
Yeah, man.
Wow.
Also, I believe that's 14 fights on the card.
14 fights.
Right now, which is...
7 o'clock start.
This is hell.
This is hell.
I mean, you do get one of the Tafa brothers.
Isn't this...
This is the other one, right?
Yeah, this one stepped up.
They swapped roles functionally.
Yeah.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah, I'm sorry, you get Eminem and Shabazzian, Cameron Simon.
Like half of some of these fights are interesting.
Billy Q, Billy Q, Gabriel Miranda is going to be a fun fight.
But just looking on paper.
Luis Pawhalos is another contender series, dude.
It's a tough fight, man.
Well, I have bad news.
Mousman kick it off.
Heavyweight overs are back for the opening fight, though, baby.
I have bad news where Gabriel Miranda is off.
It's Yusuf Salon.
now. Oh, well, I mean, Billy Q's still fun. Yeah, I like Billy Q. Um, neither of these cards are
good, dude. Let's, let's just be real. Neither of these cards are good. Uh, they're not. I mean,
you got an undefeated, an undefeated matchup between, uh, Igor Severino and Andre Lima.
Love undefeated matchups. That's great. Which is just a contender series fight. It's just two guys
straight off the contender series and now they're fighting. I mean, yeah. One of the UFC banner. Uh, yeah,
This is what we have to go through to get the 300.
I mean, that's just as simple as that.
And it's okay.
Look, 299 is one of the best cards in several years.
Yes.
It's great.
We were talking beforehand.
I have long run of the opinion that the UFC should, as a rule, take the week after a pay-per-view-all.
It really should.
Just to let the product breathe.
There are so many storylines from this past week that have come out that no one's going to be-to-
honestly, they probably should have switched these fight cards, just left the main events in place with swap.
because no one's going to talk about this fight card this weekend
because there's still the fallout of everything coming off of $2.99.
So could have let us marinate and that a little bit more.
And then, oh, we've had a week off.
Now let's get back and into it.
But it's not their way.
It's not what's going to happen.
And if you're there Saturday, you've got nothing else to do.
The worst things you can do than watch fights, I suppose.
Sure is.
Sure is.
That's that.
UFC Apex, 88.
We're back next week with 8.
Apex 89.
See y'all then.
Love ya!
You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.
