MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Can Tatsuro Taira make the leap against Brandon Royval at UFC Vegas 98?

Episode Date: October 9, 2024

UFC 307 is in the books which means it's time to head back to the APEX! UFC Vegas 98 takes place this Saturday, headlined by a flyweight contest between former title challenger Brandon Royval and rising super-prospect Tatsuro Taira, and No Bets Barred is back to break the whole card down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by former professional fighter Billy Ward of Action Network to dive into all the UFC action this weekend. Topics discussed include Royval's chances at denying the wunderkind Taira, just how past his prime is Brad Tavares, and the possible return of heavyweight overs? All that, plus, Jed unveils his newest gimmick: The Climb. Tune in for episode 103 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Billy Ward: @Psychoward586 Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No, Bets, Bard, and we got a special treat for you because I was thinking to myself, I was like, guys, what does UFC Vegas 98 deserve? It deserves something special. We are fast approaching the 100th Apex card,

and as we make our way there, I thought we'd bring in a guest this week. And so it's not one of the regulars. You know, you know all the MMA fighting. people. They're here all the time. We reached outside of our normal, our normal sphere of influence to, I would argue the most, maybe not the most, I don't know how to phrase this. The biggest, the biggest group of sports betters I know, degenerate gamblers they may be, but mostly they're winners, and they usually give you some really fun, exciting props. And talking, of course,

about the guys over at Action Network. And I have with me today, I mean, Billy, let's just say, do we want to say the brightest mind at Action Network? Is that, do we feel comfortable in saying that? I'm talking, of course, about Billy Ward. Billy Ward, come on in here. Get on in. Yeah, certainly not that. We got some Trump, guys.

I learned a lot of people there. I would say the most MMA focused person at Action Network. I mean, I was trying to big up you, Billy. I was trying to make things happen, but you're a very humble man. Billy, just, you know, for the first time listeners to you, to our program, maybe even introduce yourself, you know, let us know a little bit about what you're about. And then, frankly, we'll hop right into talking about this upcoming weekend, maybe a brief recap of last weekend and go from there. All right.

Yeah, I'm a predictive analyst over at the Action Network. I cover a lot of DFS as well as sports betting stuff. also a former pro-MMA fighter, current jujitsu competitor on occasion when the sports schedule allows it. So the combat sports side of it definitely my passion also covers some other stuff. But if I could just talk about UFC and contender series and PFL and fight pass invitations and all that stuff, that would certainly be my dream job in terms of betting and all that stuff. I mean, it's a fairly great dream job. Maybe we'll get you back on in the future if you want to be doing some stuff.

about contender series and we don't get into those weeds we're we're very middle of the road we got a UFC card we branch out to boxing you know but uh I I follow the contender series I do a bunch of writing for me fighting about it but I have yet to a branch out to the gambling on that and I want to get involved in the daily fantasy I was doing it for a little bit it was really hard for me to make any any any success there so we'll see how this goes your test run maybe we'll bring you back And you can teach us a few things about some other things. But before then, a brief recap, we got to talk about last week, Billy. Don't have to talk about it long, but UFC 307, UFC went back to Salt Lake City.

I, as a bad podcast host, did not go back retroactively and see how you did on the event with the tips and plays you give out over on Action Network. But, you know, run it down for us. How did you feel about the event? Did you do okay? what did you get wrong? What did you get right? And then I'll tell you how my experience was, which was excellent, frankly. Yeah, it was one of the better cards I had in a long time. I was 5 and 0 through the prelims. I had a Roman Belize inside the distance prize. I do remember seeing the Deleizze inside the distance was like plus 400 or whatever. So saucy,

very saucy. Had some really good ones. It was flying high coming into the main card. And then I was on the wrong side of Jose Aldo split decision, Rochelle Pannington split. decision. And I sprinkled a quarter unit on Roundtree. Didn't really expect to win that one. So ended up being a good night. I think I made about three units. It was very close to being a great night. But the Utah judging and referee made sure that that didn't happen, as a lot of people pointed out this week, one of the worst performances from a commission in a one time. I did get one split decision. I had Tisha Pennington.

So I can't complain too much because that one could have gone against me. But I'm going to Yeah, I was also on that Aldo. You know, it happens at all. I won the robbery, just unfortunate outcomes. But I ended up just over three units, so still in the positives for the year. I had been having a bit of a skid, the two events prior. So train back on the tracks as we move into, like I said, Vegas 98, just the Cadillac of MMA cards is upon us. And I have an exciting new gimmick that I'll be debuting. It's retroactively debuting because I actually did it for last card to start.

but we'll debut that. But let's start right at the top of the order for us because UC Vegas 98 goes down this Saturday, obviously at the apex. And your main event is a flyweight contest. A couple of flyweight bouts this week. This one, the biggest, easily the reason people may pay attention to this card. Former title challenger Brandon Royval taking on

super prospect Tatsuro Taira as it currently stands. and by currently, I mean, at the time of me doing these notes, Roy Val is an underdog at plus 1.80 thereabouts, Tetsu, Retire, minus 220. And as the guest, Billy, we'll throw it right to you from the start. How do you feel about this? You do have something up already on Action Network kind of covering this fight, which I tend to agree with your breakdown,

but let's dive right into it. What are we thinking here on the main event? Yeah, I had in there that the line was fairly valued. It feels about right. Tyra should be about a two to one underdog. If I had to make a bet right now, I'd probably still take the Tyra money line. The one thing that concerns me is he's never gone five rounds. He was supposed to last time but finished it in the second.

Roy Val has gone five rounds a ton of times. Roy Val lives and trains at altitude. You got to think the cardio's on the Roy Val side where Tyra also with his grappling style, that tends to wear you down a little quick. I think, you know, once these props come out, Tyra in the first three rounds, Tyra in the first two rounds, look to come in live on Roy Val or Roy Val late. I think it's probably how I'm going to play it.

Try to get big plus money on both sides. Kind of hedged there because it feels pretty binary. If you told me this one ends in the second round, I'd be fairly confident Tyra wins it. If you told me it ends in the fourth or fifth, feels like Brandon Royval rallied, you know, had the cardio dug a little bit deeper there. But that's what I'm saying at this point in the week.

Yeah, this is a very, I love this fight, man. The rest of this card, it is whatever. I am enormously high on Toucher Tets for a Tzu. Tyra. I think that he has a very good chance to become the first UFC champion born in the 2000s. He's 24 years old, and he has kind of delivered every step of the way up last time out. I know the circumstances in the Alex Perez fight, the finish was a little awkward, but I can't really take that away from him. It's not his fault. And arguably it was exactly his fault that Perez kind of blew his knee out. He made it happen, right? Like he did a thing that caused an injury.

That's not a fluke. That was, that's the whole point. Yeah, it's, it's just, it was just a wonky outcome, but I am hugely, hugely supportive of this guy. And at the same time, I have been doubting Brandon Royval consistently. And even if he hasn't made me pay, like in, in the last fight against Alejandro Pintoja, Royval did not, you know, embarrass himself, certainly. He didn't win, but I was like, yeah, he's going to get finished. and then suddenly Roy Val's out there, and I know he was disappointed in the performance,

but he lasts five rounds with the champ. I have just been consistently underestimating this guy. That being said, it's a main event, and I will always have a bet on a main event fight. It's very silly, but come on, what are we here, if not to have fun? And so I'm actually going the opposite way on you a little bit because I was burnt by Royval not so long ago. He's been more difficult to finish,

as I think he has placed more of a primacy on his defense. And I do think he can win this fight late, but I think Tetsu, Tira Tiraira will be successful early. And so I'm looking for that point spread number to come out. And I can either get the finish there with him, with Tira, or I can get sort of a 4-1, you know, 4-1 decision going down the line if we end up going that way.

When I was taking notes, the point spread option wasn't out there at this point, so I don't have a bet yet, but whenever that drops, you know, minus five and a half points or whatever is what it would end up dropping, I'm sure, at. I'll be on the Tyra side of that. Yeah, I like that. It's a good way, too. And then, again, if you're watching this live, that doesn't preclude you from a Roy Vale live bet if he's still hanging in there in the third fourth round. That's the way I prefer to play these is with the live rather than pre-fight trying to pick when they win late. You just get more outs.

And then if Tyra gets a quick finish, you also didn't make that bet and lose that money. So I think that's a sharp read too. And those five and a halfs are easier to cover than the minus three and a half in the three-round fight. Three rounds are just impossible. Yeah. This one, you know, you get a little bit of wiggle room. I talked about that a couple weeks ago and made a note to myself to bet more of those and then forgot until you said it. So thank you.

That's what we're here for. This fight's going to be amazing. I'm really excited for the scrambling and what goes on there. And hopefully it will be awesome because the rest of this card, It may not be that exciting. And speaking of which, we move right on down the line to the co-main event, a middleweight contest between divisional staple Brad Tavares and Juniung Park. Tavares, your underdog plus 150, Park coming as a favorite, around minus 170-ish.

And I'll take the lead on this one because this was a pretty easy read for me. Brad Tavares is old and that's pretty much the breakdown of this fight for me. I like Tavares. He has been a stalwart of this division for very long time. I think it's pretty obvious he has fallen off considerably from where he was, you know, a few years back when he was a top 15 guy for year after year after year.

He's two and three in his last five. He was knocked out twice in those losses. One of those wins is over the shell of Chris Wydenman. What can we even mean of that? And meanwhile, just the momentum is all with Park. Park is on a heater before that kind of splity to Andre Muniz. A lot of people think he should have won that fight. And realistically, the way Juni Young Park has lost in the UFC,

if you come and you take him down a bunch, that's how you're going to get the victories. And Brad Tavares, I'm sure he has shot a takedown at some point in the UFC, but I cannot recall it. I think that this is just going to be a striking fight. And, you know, Tavares' chin isn't what it used to be. It doesn't have the same volume you used to have. I just feel pretty confident in laying the chalk here with Park at these odds. Yeah, 100%. This is one, we were talking a little bit about the luck ratings piece I do,

which is trying to get ahead of some line movement. You know, I look at guys who have lost split decisions that could have won or the other way around or had freak occurrences. What I put in there, and this goes to the Brad Tavares. says old thing. One and three in his last four, and that win was over Chris Widman in his first fight back from a knee injury. And then Park, his only loss in his last four or five was a split decision. So all the signals point in the same way.

I'm with you. Looked it up while you were talking. The last takedown Brad Tavaris landed was against Israel, Adasania in 2018. Okay. So six solid years, and that was against... Maybe if he'll turn you into a grappler no matter who you are, too. The guy who's the most obvious I need to shoot a takedown off. in the history of the sport.

A couple of other things that I just, I was at least looking a little bit on the over one and a half, just because I really like that. And Brad Tavarro, as though he's not there now, you know, used to be a basically guarantee to go long in fights as potentially a parley piece,

not taking anything on it, but just another line that I always kind of look for. And we'll keep moving on. We'll go to the best division in the sport. lightweight baby grant dawson taking on rafa garcia d'ausen a minus 400 favorite garcia plus 340 on the comeback billy let's start with you what's your read on this fight yeah i wouldn't have looked at this this early in the week had we not been doing this but grant dawson by submission plus 440 right now at bet rivers and some of those books like that uh he's

won more than 60 percent of his fights by submission and he's a minus 400 favorite so if you do the math on that, that's a ridiculous line. I know Raffa Garcia's tough guy to finish, but Grant Dawson's grappling is worlds better than anyone Raffa Garcia has fought. I thought it was a typo when I first saw the line, went and checked, made sure they took my money, but it is real. You can get it. I would do that immediately. That'll be my prop squad pick if the line doesn't move all over that one. I don't know much more to say about it. If he's going to do it, I hope he does a little later because this one, I am in fact taking the over one and a half rounds. And I get to debut the new gimmick and very excited.

Because over at Action Network, you guys are being like smart people and trying to make money. I'm just trying to have fun, Billy. And I have a new gimmick. And it goes a little something like this. I don't know if you're on the TikTok, Billy, but I am because why not? And however the algorithm determines things, I, within the last week, started to get, a ton of, you know, generic white guys talking about parley's, and having discovered that a 30-team parlay of minus 500 favorites, nets a $100 bet to be like $23 grand or whatever.

I think it actually ends up coming like 25 if you do 31 of them. And so it's just a series of like, hey, guys, we're going to be placing one minus 500 bet a day for a month, and we're going to turn a hundred bucks into 20 grand. obviously it's insane and 30 team parles do not hit but it seems like a really fun gimmick if I'm gonna be honest and so every fight card I'm titling this the climb we're trying to climb 30 fights at you know big favorites to get us a hundred measly dollars up to 20k and will we get there almost surely not when we lose we'll start back over and we'll we'll return to the climb And last week, we started the very first climb.

I mentioned this on our UFC 307 watch party. It was Alex Pereira. I was like, what a better way to start this new gimmick than Alex Pereira. And so we started. That's a cash baby. Alex Pereira bringing home the bacon. We made like 20 bucks on that $100 bet. And now we're rolling it all over again.

And we're putting it here into Dawson Garcia over one and a half. Odds are minus $5.50 right now. And basically, I know Garcia has not fought in like two years or something insane. It's like a very long layoff for him. But he's never been finished. Never. And all of his finishes are submissions. That's just he does not knock people out.

Meanwhile, Grant Dawson is Grant Dawson. He gets knocked out occasionally, but he does not get submitted ever. I do think he is the better grappler. But he usually goes a little long. longer. Eight of his 11 bouts have hit over one and a half. For Garcia, all seven of his UFC bouts have hit the over one and a half. So the climb continues step two right here with the over one and a half in this fight. I love that. What I really like about it is that you're not doing it all on parlay. You're rolling it each time because I always rant about parley's on UFC cards

because it makes way more sense to just let the first one settle than roll it in. it in, roll it in because they're all sequential. I get why you wouldn't do that on like an NFL Sunday, but then these people hit six in a row and say, oh, should I cash out the seven months? No, you should have bet them each one by one as they happen. So I love that aspect. It's denying me my rant about why doing those big parlayas is stupid. But you found the workaround, so I can't even complain about it.

I love what you're doing with it. Look, big parlays aren't stupid. All parlays are stupid. And I'm very upfront that this is a dumb, a dumb gimmick. But I know that I'm going to have fun because I started doing it outside of MMA with my friends on like football and stuff. We've already blown it twice in the span of a week because it's impossible to hit 30 things in a row, basically. But it's a very fun gimmick. And we're hoping to keep this going at least for a little while.

Let's keep moving on the women's straw weight as we move down the main card. Julia Pulashtry coming as a minus 125 favorite over Corey McKenna plus 115 to come back on McKinna. Billy, do you have any? I'll be honest, I don't have a lot on this fight. So do you have anything on this fight? Not a ton. I certainly haven't bet this yet. My kind of systemic way I look at this is with these lighter women's fights that we expect to go to a decision,

you typically want the underdog because that gives you both the out of them actually winning in the out of the judges giving it to them when they don't. And there's not enough damage, really, that there's often a clear winner in some of these, some of these rounds. With that said, I like the Pallastry side a little bit better. She's not a heavy favorite, like you said,

minus 125, minus 130. McKenna should probably be an atom weight, but they don't have that in the UFC. She is tiny. I think Pallastry has a physical edge here. Pallastry's 0-1, but she fought a fairly tough opponent. McKenna has beat some fairly bad opponents. I kind of don't know how to read that.

how that balances out. Not betting it myself yet. We'll probably watch some tape later in the week and see if I can talk myself into something, but we do not have to bet every fight for anything. Don't feel compelled to get something down on all of them. Yeah, I feel exactly that way. You know, Palastrian was off last season,

a contender series. I had her rated as a developmental prospect. She's got some good. She needs a lot of work. McKenna, just the quality of her wins and frankly her losses is very, questionable and neither woman is proven enough for me to feel good either way and so look there whatever 13 fights this saturday i have plenty of other action i'm good without a bet here so yeah

uh nothing on this one we move to a fight where i do have some action though and uh the fight i'm speaking of course daniel rodriguez taking on alex morono in a welterweight contest Mr. Rodriguez, your current favorite at minus 185, Morano, the comeback plus 170. I'll keep this very, very simple. I understand the potential reticence behind backing D.Rod at this point of his career. He's lost three in a row. He's 37. Maybe he's just done, you know, maybe his time is over.

But the way he lost those fights were largely being taken down repeatedly, frankly, by significantly better fighters and Alex Morono. Marono is an underachiever, or an overachiever, sorry. And so you can never count him out of a fight. He's got that dog, that's scrap to him. But in a fight that I think is going to be largely contested on the feet, I think Dana Rodriguez is just a straight up a better striker, more powerful, better combinations. And Marono can maybe make this little scrappy, but looking at the other side of it,

the guys Marono is beaten. I just think the quality of opposition it favors Rodriguez as well. Three losses scares me, but not enough. I'm taking the Danny Rodriguez price and we'll see if it bites me in the ass. Yeah, one of those losses for DROD too

was to Kelvin Gastilom, who decided he wasn't going to cut weight and had way more energy and that whole thing. So you can kind of almost scratch that one off the record and not counted against him. I don't have a bet on this one yet. It seems like a lot of money's coming in on DRAD. So if you like that side, fast. If Marono gets to like better than plus 200, I might have to jump on that because it's getting

it's getting there. You open around plus 150. High is plus 175 now. So that's what I'm watching some line movement on. But as it is right now, I think it's about where it should be. So unless it moves big one way or the other, I will be passing on that fight. Morano is six, uh, four and one no contest as an underdog. The man has a pension for, for off the upset. So wouldn't be the worst thing if he gets the plus 200 to maybe take a stab there. And then your main card opener, Abdul Razak Al-Hassan, taking on Josh Frimd in a middleweight contest. Al-Han, your favorite minus 155, the comeback on Frimmed at plus 135.

Billy, what do you got on this one? I hate to say, I don't love betting either of these guys. Neither of these guys make you feel good about investing your money in them. If I had to do it, it would be Josh Friend. I think Abdul Razak Al-Assan, his nickname is Judo Thunder, but all he does is swing bombs. Fremd is a big strong dude. If he can get a hold of him, I kind of like, I don't want to use, I don't want to say boring fight, but a dirty fight from Fremd, I think is a pretty clear path to victory.

Shove him up against the fence, lean on him. Frem's a big boy. Al-Hassan used to be a welterweight. I see the path there for Frem, so at plus 140 or so, don't mind it. This is another one that would really feel a lot better if I got a better price on Fremd. And I can't imagine who I would lay minus odds on and bet on Al Hassan and feel good about that. So can't take him as a favorite. That is a hundred.

Not many of them. That is a hundred percent right. This is a really easy dog or pass for me. And I'm just not betting Josh Frimmed at this level of dog. I need more value there. I cannot trust Al Hassan. I am not sure he should ever be a favorite in the UFC, frankly. But at the same time, if he's going to be the favorite,

maybe Josh Frim just the guy to be the favorite over. Just stay away from this one unless you got a real good read that I'm missing. Not for me, sir, not on this one. That brings us to the prelims now, where Chidi and Jokawani was taking on Jared Gooden in a welterweight contest. In Jokawakwani, a minus 185 favorite. Gooden plus 160. I'll just lead us off here and say, I got nothing.

You know, Chitty wants to be striking this. Gooden also wants to strike despite, I think he probably would have an edge on the ground if he chose to take it there. I don't think he's going to, and thus I just, I don't want to be involved in this fight, and I'm sitting it out. What about you? I kind of like the night train side. That would be Jared Gooden, for those not familiar with the nickname.

Cheedy, one and three in his last four. his win was a split decision against a guy who's 0 and 4 in the UFC. So, like, when you see that at a guy, he's 35, almost 36, that's not a great sign. You know, I don't know if he's physically losing it or just not as interested, not as motivated, whatever. He seems to be trending the wrong direction. I was somewhat impressed by Jared Goodwin's win over Wellington Termin. Not that Wellington Termin's a contender or anything like that, but he was a guy who would beat some other people in the UFC. So to get plus 160, which I think is the best odds on night train.

right now. Don't mind that at all. As we've said a couple times, each of us, if we can get a little better price, and I think we will, I'm going to hold out for that. Also one where maybe that plus three and a half, I'm gooden, if he gets a take down on one round and steals that and manages to not get knocked out, I think there might be some value there.

Want plus money on the plus three and a half, though, and we might not get it. We'll have to see what that post set. All right, and that moves us on to another flyweight contest, the second of three on Saturday. CJ Vergara stepping in to do his duty as the man who gets rolled over by fun prospects. See faces Ramazon Timorov. Timorov making his UFC debut. He's minus 250.

Vergara. You can get him. If you're line shopping, you can get him almost close to plus 245 right now versus the Timorov thing. So very, very loose with the lines depending on the books you're using. And Billy, this one's really,

really simple for me. I'm not betting it just because I generally have a rule against betting on people making their debut unless I have a really, really, really good reason to just because things can get wonky, the bright lights of the show. Sometimes it might be a little different. But this should be a Timorov win straightforward. He's going to stand up. He's going to put the mitts on him.

Vergara has never been stopped by strikes, though, so maybe you can make it a little scrappier. and Vargar's just the guy. He is the prospect jumping off stone. Whatever the word I'm looking for there, you know what I mean. This is what he does. Timrov's coming in for that. And so I'm picking Timorov to win, but there will not be a bet for me. Yeah, only thing I have on it is if we get a reasonably good price on Timorov by finish,

you know, minus 150 or something like that, would be interested in that. You know, I could see a club and sub here. It looks like he's got decent graph. I haven't watched a ton of tape on him yet, though, so I'm not anchoring myself to that. But yeah, keep an eye on the prop markets once those open up. Might be able to find some value there. But I'm with you. I'm not laying minus 300 on a guy coming into the UFC, even if he is fighting C.J. Vergara.

Yeah. Who's actually not bad. C.J. Vergara is fine. I don't want to disparage him. No, he is. He has a role, and he plays his role. And this is his role. But I don't want to be betting this fight.

Our next contest, I am. I am going to be betting, though. I'm talking about a featherweight contest between Jonathan Pierce, JSP, and Pat Sabatini. Pierce, your favorite, very slight minus 130, Pat Sabatini, come back around plus 115. And Billy, I'll just lead off again because I already teased it. I do have a bet on this. And very simply, the bet is Pat Sabatini. You know, I think Pierce wants to come out.

He wants to wrestle, wants to wrestle some more. And then if there's time for it, he's still wanting to. wants to keep wrestling. Whereas Pat Sabatini, look, he also wants to be a top position grappler if possible, but he is willing and capable of grappling off his back. We have seen Pierce get reversed when he gets top position. David Onama did it like a hundred times or something insane. Sabatini is, you know, gotten got, I guess, by big guys throwing combinations, big punches very,

very powerfully and that's not really Pierce's game either. You could convince me that Pierce is the better wrestler. I probably would even agree to that. But I think the overall better grappler here is Sabatini. I think he can compete at wrestling. And if he's ever on top, Pierce has trouble. So I'm getting a pretty decent price on the underdog here at plus 115 and a guy who I think should be a slight favorite. So I'm on Pat Sabatini.

You know, I really like when I come on these podcasts and we can disagree. I think it makes better content when we can go back and forth on a fight. It does. But that's not going to happen here because I am all on Pat Zantini as well. You are 100% right. JSP would win a wrestling match between these two, but submission grappling and MMA wrestling is not wrestling. It is an entirely different thing.

Pat Sabatini has gone in there with guys who just grapple on pro grappling events and look incredible. If you blitz them real hard and start selling them things at his chin, you might catch him napping. That's a thing that happens. There's a lot of guys I've known like that. But that's not something we have to worry about with JSP. Yeah, Sabatini Plus 120.

Love that bet. I almost never bet more than one unit on our flight, and I'm very tempted to say that I'm going to be doing that here. Don't hold me to that. We'll probably back out and not do that. But, yeah, I love that, Sabatini. If you lost at Diego Lopez and then the weird Damon Jackson fight where he got caught early, I don't say that happened.

Yeah, and the Damon Jackson one, And it's hard because, you know, Damon, Bill Simmons used to have a thing about, and I forget, it might have been Kurt Warner, who before Super Bowl or something said that he was fighting, that he was playing for God and puppies, something like that where, you know, there was a lot going on there for Damon Jackson in his personal life that, you know, makes that hard to take anything beyond that being a one-off performance from action. Jackson. Moving on, a welterweight contest. Thimba Garimbo versus Nico Price. Garimbo A's pretty sizable favorite here, minus 285. Come back on price, looking around plus 250. Billy, tell me, I have a thought here, and I won't lie.

Like, I did read your stuff. I kind of knew that you were on your similar vein with the Sabatini. I don't know if you and I are in the same place here. I have a very strong stance about this fight, and I would love to see if maybe we can get a little of that contention that you were previously speaking about. Well, we're not going to get it here because I don't have a strong stance on a side in this fight. I almost feel like Thumba's one of those guys where he should maybe never be minus 300

in a UFC fight against a reasonable opponent. I don't know that I'd quite go that far. At the same time, like, what's the path for Nico Price here? Don't love that. this is when the lines have not come out yet but if we get plus money on like under two and a half or doesn't go to a decision I think that's where I'm going

both guys kind of got that glass cannon to them or they're going to swing they're not that interested in defense they've got some big holes in their game could kind of see either one taking advantage of it I'm more than willing to be convinced on a side here though if you have a strong feeling I have a very strong feeling

and honestly you you tapped into it uh... then McRumbo shouldn't be this big a favor over like reasonable opposition. I know that he has this wonderful backstory and he's the rock's favoriteist fighter and all of that. And he has promised that he's going to be

the welterweight champion. Nothing that I have seen from him in Cage makes me believe that this price is warranted. Nico Price got his problems. He's not here to tell you that he's the greatest fighter. He's a really fun action fighter and always has been though. Frankly, he has fought and beaten and certainly lost to better opposition than Garimbo.

And I am just deeply unsold on Garimbo in general, much less at minus 300 functionally price point here. So this is just a full value bet on Nico Price for me. If it loses, I won't be stunned because Nico Price is a flawed fighter. But this will be, I think, the best win of Garimbo's career by a considerable margin. So at this price, it's just like, I don't know what I'm missing. I'm not doing it. Nico Price is the play.

The only reason I can't get there with you is I have bet both on price and spots like this and against Grimbo in spots like this. And I've lost some decent money doing that. Like I thought Price was free money against 90 year old Robbie Lawler. We know how that worked out. That was a mistake. That was a mistake. Thumba Grimbo won that one.

So like I could just be gun shy and like letting my own biases and my own fear influence this but yeah i'm with you i conceptually am with you i just can't can't pull that trigger right now look you should always be dictated by your fear i am super disappointed that you tried to outvalue the the gods robbie lawler deserved that win and betting on nico price that's sacrilege we don't accept that but how often does anyone get what they deserve an m m ms it to a good in a good way or a bad way right there the one time it happened and I wouldn't trade it for the world. That's fair.

Just a couple more fights. We are ending with a whimper. This card as we moved down the line. A heavyweight contest, Huggy Bear's back. Chris Barnett plus 328 sizable underdog to Junior Tofu's minus 360.

I had very little to say about this fight so I'll throw it to you just a second, Billy. My breakdown is, yeah, Barnett hasn't fought in two years, and while he is very fun, I don't know, honestly, probably shouldn't be this big of an underdog, but I am in no way laying the number here for Toffel or Barnett either side. I'll watch it. It might be a fun little scrap.

They'll come. They'll throw things. Chris Barnett might do a wheel kick. Junior Toff will probably knock him out at some point. It's just how it'll go, and I don't need to be involved in this as a better. I'm mostly with you. I'm not, I don't think any of us can even be confident which Tafa he's going to fight at this point. It's true.

So, yeah, hard one to bet on you might make it a void just on a different Tafa showing up than who we originally expected. If you are really sick and can't watch a fight without having money on it, burn out's the side, I guess. Dog or pass. It's a big dog price, sure. The other one I want to see, if we get like a really big price on fights goes to a decision, there's a really good chance these guys both get tired kind of quick. And if no one gets knocked out in a minute or two, that one on an actual, I think this might be plus EV and worth thinking about.

Got to see what the prices are. Those aren't out on a Tuesday. But heavyweight fights either end early or not at all. That's typically how it goes. Because once they get tired, submission rates go up late in fights. Neither of these guys know what a submission is. It could happen. That's all I'm saying.

I need a big number on that. Don't lay juice on that. Sir, you're speaking music to this podcast here. As the founder of the heavyweight over nation, we absolutely would love for that to happen. And honestly, I can see it. It's very live. The heavyweight over is very live here. Your not penultimate pin first, your second fight of the evening,

Daniel Argueta taking on Cody Haddon in a bantam weight contest, had any minus 180 favorite Argueta plus 165. This is the last fight I have action on, but Billy, I also know that you had a early breakdown on this. So let's go with you, and then I'll clean up here. Yeah, so I do the Contender Series articles, and if you catch this before this week's come out,

be sure to check out tonight's version, which means I wrote about Cody Haddon, like, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, something like that. He was just on this season. I was very high on him then. I am very high on him now, especially against Dan Arguehetta, who hasn't really won a fight in like two years.

You know, he got submitted last time out. He had the weird, had Ronnie Lawrence in a submission, maybe kind of. Keith Peterson pulled on Ronnie Lawrence's hand and then said that that was a tap, even though Keith Peterson was the one who did it. Then he had a no contest after losing.

Kind of everything pointed the same way on Cody had in. Get on that now. It seems to be moving against it. That's the one thing I would say. I think the best price on Cody had. Haddon is the sooner the better but yeah I'm big on that side of things here yeah I'm very very big on Cody Hadden as well I do our contenders series right for me fighting last year the guys that I did it a little differently than I'm doing it this year but functionally the guys I

would call round one prospects as they comp to the NFL draft they have gone 16 and two since the last season of contender series with one of those losses because being Carly Judis, who I thought won her split decision there. And that's that's the category I'd put Haddon in. I think he is a round one prospect. This guy's bright, bright future here. Flyweight, don't look now, just a ton of up-and-coming talent coming through this. Argueta, he actually lost to a guy that I had to say top-graded prospect last year in John

Mattisimu. My comp for Haddon is like shades of. Not there, but it's like a little bit of that Ilya-level boxing to his game. I think he's come out. I was going to put the Mitz on Argueta, and I am always backing my contender series prospect. So doing so against the last, or I guess the first bet of the evening for me. And Billy, that brings us to the opening bout. The last bout we are here to talk about this week, or this week, Clayton Carpenter,

a minus 185 favorite over Lucas Rocho, who comes back around plus 170. in an opening flyweight contest. So, Billy, I've already said it. I got nothing here. Carpenter's been out 20 months, Rocha's previous contingency's prospect that I thought was developmental guy, needed some work, and I'm not really sure he's gotten that work yet, so I'm staying away, but what about you? So I haven't bet it myself. I noticed something a little weird, though, is Rocha opened, I think, like, plus 110, and is now all the way at plus 170 or so, as you referenced.

A little bit more than half of the people on topology are predicting Rocha to win, though. But we're seeing the price go the opposite way. That tells me that there's a lot of big bets coming in on Carpenter early for some reason. My lean was Rocha. That has scared me off a little bit. If you want to play the conspiracy game that maybe people know something, Carpenter is definitely the side because that is strange line movement when people think the other guy's going to win.

Usually with those situations, I think the smartest thing to do is stay away, but there's probably something there. Keep an eye on that line movement. keep an eye on those public predictions because normally when the public is picking one side, they're also betting them and it's causes the line to move that way. We're seeing the opposite here. That's something that Sean Zerillo, who I do the podcast with in action, uses to project his fights.

And he has got giant red flags popping up at his house right now. That's an interesting bit of information I hadn't even sort of looked into. So, yeah, stay away, guys. That's what we've learned here. and that's that's the end of ufc vegas 98 the road to ufc Vegas 100 continues uh it's it's a wonderful road uh i would ask you for just like a brief teaser on contender series tonight but truth is this podcast will not come out in time for that so billy uh what i can say to you is thank you for being here and tell the people where they can find you where they can find your work

where they can find you on socials, all that deal. Yeah, actionnetwork.com. I got an author page there if you search Action Network, Billy Ward, tons of MMA content, other sports stuff as well. Then over on the artist formerly known as Twitter, it's Psycho Ward 586, which was my fight nickname back in the day. Yeah, you know, I would change it now as a real adult if I could, but as a burgeoning pro-MMA fighter, that was the fight nickname.

And on Tapology, Billy Psycho Award, You can see my glorious five and six record, a few losses to some UFC guys on there. So that is always fun. Well, this was fun, Billy. I want to thank you again for coming back on. We will reach out. We'll have you back again. Hopefully it was something better, you know, because you deserve better than Vegas 98.

You know, I hadn't even thought of it until you said it. And maybe I can come on for this one. but do you think they do a special Vegas 100? Like, do we do something big for Vegas 100? Because that would be the UFC loves their centennials, you know? Maybe we get that. We've been talking about it for years, but not years really, but for a while. Yeah, like, because next week is Hernandez-Pera.

That's Vegas 99. And then November 9th is it. They're going back to Vegas, November 9th. that is the I don't know if it will be the main event I don't remember if this was it but that is the debut of Reneer de Ritter

making his debut against Gerald Miershard at that card and there's nothing else attached that's like a main eventy yet so we'll see if it goes how that ends up being but I doubt they do anything special I really wish they would

it'd be incredibly fun yeah it looks like the first one listed on topology is Luano Paniero versus Gillian Robertson so the flight we've all been waiting for we've i mean people are cody garbara miles johns maybe miles johns gets the main event you know fighting a former champion uh we got cody garbs there that's true i don't know how it was going um oh wait maybe this is this may be the moreno albazi uh fight that is like oh that's in edmonton though they move that to edmonton yeah then i don't know what we're doing here hopefully it'll be something good

it'll probably be sean strickland at the apex um because this the king of the apex. Maybe Brendan Allen, I know he just fought, but we roll him back out there as king of the apex. We won't bring you on back for that. I promise you will get you the next time you come on, it'll be for a better card than this trash. But I appreciate your service today. Make sure you give Billy a follow. Make sure you're obviously following all the things we're doing in refraining.com.

And we'll see you next week. Hernandez Pereira fluffy taking on Demolador and yeah some other fights are also on that card See you then love y'all