MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Creating The Official MMA Betting Rulebook

Episode Date: September 21, 2022

It's a down week for the UFC but not for the No Bets Barred boys, who are back to cover all your gambling needs. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew give a recap of their bets at UFC Vegas 60, and then do a brief rundown of their plays for this weekend's Bellator Dublin event, before spending the bulk of the show creating arguably the most important document since the Magna Carta: The Official MMA Betting Rulebook. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose

to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another edition of No Betts Bard. No UFC this week.

We are aware, but we're still going to make a little something happen. Bellator 285 going down in Dublin. Shakur Stevenson, fighting Olympic gold medalist Robson-Conseo. Yeah, I got that name right. I did a little research there. Wow, I'm impressed.

Yeah, thank you. Thank you. It took me three minutes to YouTube, his name, and listen to Joe Tessitore, say it multiple times on a broadcast. A little something special on the back end as well. I'll let you break that down a little bit later on. So we'll have some fun with that. And we've got to recap UFC to UFC Apex 60.

Sorry, I'm getting ahead of myself already looking at paper views after the week that was. My man, Jed, how are we doing? I think I know the answer to this, but how are we feeling? I'm doing A plus plus. And it was, we talk about it all the time. We both want to have winning weeks. I'm sorry that yours was not as good. Thank you, Daniel Zell-Huber.

Daniel Zell-Huber. We talked about it because we're going to talk about him in a minute as well. Shout out to him. No, no, no, seriously, though. Shout out to him. I appreciate it, man. Yeah. I had an almost perfect week, which is not a thing that happens in the gambling world.

So I was flying high. I hit every one of my bets on no bets barred except for. And frankly, let's be honest, I take zero blame for this loss because I didn't know I was going against God and greater forces that exist. The Pat Sabatini was the only. The only loss I had, he obviously loses to Damon Jackson. And I text you win that fight when they were making the walkouts because that was the moment I learned that Damon Jackson's brother had died that week. Yeah.

You know, I choked on my cheese stick a little bit when I heard that. I was like, oh, man, we might be getting into something bad. But sometimes I do, it's taboo to even, like, bring this up in the gambling sphere. But like, I do go back to, like, Walt Harris after his daughter. died. A lot of people bet on him. He did not win. I was actually at 277. Anthony Smith is making the walk. I'm watching with a bunch of my friends and they announce about the passing of his mother. And one of my friends is like, oh, betting on him. Plus 450. His mom died betting on him. He's going to win. Obviously doesn't work out for him. I think the best thing to do in fights like this,

if you're aware of the statistics, stay away from it. You just never know how someone's going in, taking that heavy emotional toll with them into the cage. Sometimes they'll fight like Damon Jackson. Nothing to lose. Let it rip. Sometimes, you know, they might not be up for the fight. It's dicey. But yes, I'm with you. Exactly. Like, that's my thing. I wouldn't have bet on Damon Jackson because I'm totally with you in that. Like, I've seen it go the other way so many times. But there's no world in which you could have compelled me to put money against Damon Jackson. Yeah, because then I'm cheering for Damon Jackson. Exactly. Like, dude, it's a terrible thing that happened to them. I'm not, I don't want to see it get doubled down by him, losing. in a fight. Like, it was an emotional scene afterward, him crying in the cage.

But yeah, our bet was immediately in danger when I found out about that. As soon as I heard it, I was like, oh, this is, because I was still having, you know, didn't have that many bets prior to that, but had success was like, oh, well, now, now the bad things are coming. But other than that, Jillian Robertson hits. Jillian Robertson and the underhits. And the under hits. So, listen, I'm going to break the fourth wall here just real quick.

I drove pretty far to get that cheese steak on a recommendation from Big Joe Green on our show staff. Terrible traffic in Brooklyn on Saturday ended up being about a two and a half hour round trip. Yeah, it was bad. It was bad. I got cussed out twice on the way there. One dude was hanging out his window cussing me out. It was pretty intense. You know, people are crazy in New York, so I just didn't really respond to it. So I was streaming, had the phone up on the dashboard. board streaming sitting in gridlock traffic when Jillian Robertson got the sub. At that point, I was like, I can't miss right now. I'm 3 and 0 already on the day. Everything went bad after that. But yeah, that's where I was at, getting my cheese steak just to be halfway through it

and all of it go bad. Can't miss. That's what I was thinking. And that's why the gambling god spited me because that thought entered my head. I was like, man, I just can't miss these days. And then they were like, you cannot. Yeah, psych. You cannot have that thought.

So she gets the sub, which I gave out as a prop bet in my gambling preview column from Mayfiting.com, great website. She gets the end. She gets to win. Everything's kosher. Anthony Hernandez does the damn thing. Oh, my God, he looks so good, too. Oh, he looked.

He looked the best of the card. Yeah, I was going to say that was like my best bet of the day. Like, he just went in and just, God, he looked so. That's just what you want to see. in a fighter that you take in like that minus 150 to minus 200 range. He looked so good. Yeah, because it's like, oh, he should have been minus three, minus four. There's one-way traffic.

Looked every part of it. Dominating. Bows are Nassimento. Just doing the thing. The funniest part is, you had the over, I had the under, and it was very stressful for both of us. Both of us. I was, like, I think I texted you in the first round. I was like, man, I don't, because our street.

were not lined up. And I was like, dude, I don't like what's happening right now. Oh, when they came out for like that first minute, it looked like car crash territory. I was just like, this is hitting. And because I had that thought, Nassimento immediately went for a takedown and just lay and prayed. I thought this dude was supposed to be a BJJ, like a wizard and he was just going to submit him. Yeah. And that was the thing you immediately text me.

It was like, obviously my stream's a little ahead of yours because I would feel a lot better right now. That was right after he hits the takedown. Then in the second round, Bozer wobbles him bad with like 15 seconds to hit your over. And I was like, because I'm cheering for your over. I was like hoping for a perfect world. We get a TKO with like 2.25 left. Thread the needle. Yeah, and we just thread the needle.

I was like, oh, no. But then like in my back of my head, I was also like, oh, yes, for my own bet. It was an emotional roller coaster. That is the best way to describe it. And that's why I will always bet heavy waningovers. I know that I've been doing it, the experiment. I'm not willing to say that they always hit, though they have been nailing it lately. But it is the most fun I have betting is just watching these two big old beefy band just try to ruin my dreams.

It's fun as fun as fun. I have to get some transparency here. Every heavy weight over you're just going to blindly take? Pretty much, yeah. Oh, okay. I mean, we'll see if eventually it starts burning. me enough that I have to be a little more discerning. But yeah, if there was a Bellator heavyweight fight this weekend, I would be hitting the over.

There are none. My man, my guy, Jilton Almeda, just got a fight made for 280 against Shemail. I'm going to hit it. You're going to take it? I don't like it. It's not going to make me happy, but a man's got to have a code. A man does have to have a code. You mentioned no heavyweight fights on.

Bellator, I'm depressingly looking over the lineup to see there are no flyweight fights for us to hit an under. There never fly weights in belly, which is why it's a trash organization that we don't support. Exactly. Flyweight is the greatest division in all the sports. Last night, the Anoy Contender Series, flyweight fight, I didn't take the under because I couldn't find a two and a half. They had the under, or they had the one and a half line like over minus 180.

It's like, dude, then give me a two and a half. I like even money under two and a half. Third round, knockout. Like, these things are, I went back in the stats and we'll get back into this later. We've done well on flywood unders throughout the whole year. I track all my bets and everything. The flywood unders have been pretty good to us. That's because they never miss.

And then let's talk about the big one because hit a lot of things, but a lot of people gave some shoutouts. And we were talking about it before. hand. I don't want to pretend like I am a genius. Like this was like I saw something in Reddit, but every week on MMMFighton.com, great website. I give out a long shot of the week. Great column. That where you give that long shot out.

That's a great column. Thank you. I give it because it's fun because it's fun to dream to take a big swing at something very, very stupid. And my general parameters are I want it to be over plus a thousand. Like that's really the only rule. Occasionally I've had to bend it when something, nothing was even remotely acceptable. This week, I picked Corey Sandhagen by fourth round TKO.

Want to be clear, that hit, I made plus 2,500, and so did the people who tailed me. Shout out to y'all, because frankly, some of you all put more money on it than I did. And you are reaping the benefits of that. People love plus money. People love plus money. But I just want to be clear, I am going to absolutely celebrate the hell of the way. You have to. It was not at all the way I thought it was going to happen and it probably didn't deserve to happen. But it happened. It doesn't make any difference because we were talking about it beforehand.

That whole, I didn't think it was going to hit just because I thought that fight was going to be stopped after the third round. I was like, man, that cut is terrible. Can't do it. And then they let it start. And as soon as he lets it go, I'm like, oh, my God. Oh, it's in play, baby. This is in play because that thing is only going to get worse.

And the whole time, I'm like, dude, stop the fight and check the cut, stop the fight. Electric five minutes for you. Electric. And when we get to the stool and Cormier is saying, there's no chance this fight continues. I'm thinking that, I mean, there shouldn't be. There's no world. But Gregory Rodriguez, the fight before shouldn't have been allowed to continue fighting. His face was literally falling off.

Yeah, we can see veins and arteries. Yeah, man. And that doctor was just letting him go. So I was like, oh, if he stops it now, this is. is it. If he doesn't, this will be the saddest. I will have ridden the roller coaster and crashed. And then he leans over and whispers in herbs ear. And I'm like, oh, that's it, baby. He, that's it. He's stopping this one. And then I jumped off of my couch. I can only imagine. I can only imagine how crazy you must have gone. I mean, that's, that's a huge number. That's a huge number.

I can say definitively, unless it's like a future on golf or a future that's like a season long thing, I've never hit something like that on a single play. Dude, it's, it was electric. And that is, that's why gambling gets you, man. That's why we do it. Because things like that happen. I was sitting there, parlay, the MMA hour parlay got killed San Dagan in that one. The over one and a half had already hit.

I was sitting there twirling my thumbs, just kind of enjoying the fight. Energy was fairly low watching it. Had I had San Hagen round four, I would have been, much more intrigued into what was happening. And that's why betting was fantastic. It is because, like, low-key, that fight wasn't that fun. Not really. No, not really.

On the merits, but I had a great time. Oh, God, yeah. It's hard to have a bad time when you're hitting $2,500 still. It is very difficult. So it was a great week. I mean, it's always a bummer when you come one short of the perfect week. I've been doing this, giving out picks on the MMA hour for a year now. Three times I have come one short.

Most recently, UFC Paris. I came short on a stupid bet. Zero gone by sub is the one that I missed at UFC Paris. You can't even count that as missing the thing. I know, but I have to. That's just a shot in the dark. To have a perfect week, everything's got to be green. Everything's got to be green if I'm going to have a perfect week.

I'm still chasing it. It's got to have a code. It's elusive. It's elusive. It's my white whale. It's my white buffalo. or whatever you want it to be. The first week you hit it, we got to throw a party.

Oh, dude. When either of us has that. It's a parade. Actual perfect week where every single bet that you put in, every single dollar that you give to the bookies comes right back to you. With some friends? Oh, we got to celebrate. Oh, yeah. We got to celebrate.

It's going to happen. That's the new high to chase. That is the new high to chase. Oh, I've been chasing it. I've been chasing it. It's my ghost. The perfect week. if I ever get up 100 units all time for MMA hour picks and I hit a perfect week,

the retirement talks will start creeping up. Oh, just walk away on top. Leave the gloves in the octagon. I guess leave my wallet in the octagon, whatever it is, and just start enjoying a much more stress-free life. Leaving your wallet in the octagon would be the absolute best thing. God, it'd be so great if I got a perfect week and hit the over 100 unit mark at an apex show that I was in attendance. And then they let me go into the octagon afterward to take pictures.

And I just ceremoniously left my wallet in there. That would be all-time stuff. Do it for the MSG card. I mean, make it happen. But until then, we keep chasing those ghosts. And that's what we're going to keep doing week after week until we catch them. Boating from flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Oh, what?

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It is not. It's not. I'm not going to sit here and lie to the masses that I tape studied for hours on in for Bellator 285. What? You didn't? Probably the most intraste. freaking things about this card for me. Benson Henderson, Peter Quilly,

Yoel Romero, and Melvin Manhoeff are fighting, which is pretty cool. And the card is in Dublin. I know the Dublin crowd is going to deliver. The crowd is, that's the thing. I think this card is mostly poop, but this crowd is going to deliver. Like that is...

Peter Quilly, zombie. Come on. Like, they're going to be going hard. Yeah. Yuel Romero, somehow the younger fighter in this matcher? I didn't think that was possible in actual MMA, but all things are possible through Bellator, the promotion.

Actually, a somewhat decent poster for Belator, too. They got rid of the gray, black, red, and white color scheme where they literally just plug in the picture of the fighters. They did a little something, something here. I like it. Oh, it's because it's because the Dublin, so they got to put some green in it, you know. Yeah, yeah.

Shut up. But it does look better. It is certainly a better. When you take 15 minutes to design a poster, it does somehow look better. I mean, you could just pay a graphic designer like $500 and get a sick poster made. It's MMA promotions just mail it in so much these days. Dude, I follow like 15 artist accounts on Instagram and Twitter that most of their product is just creating. sick posters for events.

It's just like, dude, commission those guys. And like, your product immediately gets better if your poster's sick. I hate to say it, but it just does. Like, that's how it's the same as a book cover. Like, it draws casual interest in. A wine label, a beer label. Like, I'm going to be drawn in if it looks fancy. Yeah, exactly.

I mean, like, I'm trying to remember the dude's name. you follow uh the guy who used to do just nothing but ufc posters and then he ended up getting like he he ended up doing an in an avengers end game poster because like all he would do is create like those things and that's just he got got semi famous in the industry from from this artistic stuff and then he did it i can't think of his name off the top of my head yeah i'm not gonna lie i'm also not going to sit here and lie to tell you that I know all of them. One of the ones that I know the most that is consistently putting them out. Boss logic.

Boss logic. All Boss Logic did was make infinite MMA posters about fighters and events and stuff. And some of them were really cool. Some of it was all a bit in the same style for my taste personally. But it was at least unique and different. He did so much of it that he eventually, and then he started branching out to doing movie stuff and then he like actually did in Avengers end game poster like through with marvel and stuff like there's a ton of talented people out there you could you could care about these little

small things but they and Belltor's just mailing it in oh for sure for sure needing art is one that I really like he does some sick stuff he does like old school VHS tapes with the poster on it all right we're getting way too deep into the weeds of Bellator 285 post let's get into it I have no single place. I have two just nasty, nasty parlays that I can almost guarantee we'll lose. It's going to be Friday afternoon because it's in Dublin. Beautiful crisp all day. I should be outside enjoying it. Instead, I'm bunkered in my living room, watching Showtime pay-per-view, and someone that I should have never even trusted my money with is going to let me down. That is, I can see into the future, and that is in my future. whether it's Carl Albrexson, whether it's Darag Kelly. I love that you took Carl Albrexen because we could talk about it. I thought about doing the same thing. I've got one parlay and one straight play.

I thought about putting Carl in the parlay, big number. And then I was just like, I have absolutely no idea if he's going to actually win this fight. It wouldn't shock me in any possible capacity if you lost to Carl Moore. Battle of the Carls. Let us say. Name rights fights. Love name rights fights. You have to know that Bellator.

Bellator did that, you know, booking. That was something they're leaning on heavy with the promotion of Belator 285 is the Battle of the Carls naturally. Carl Overson is a top 10 light heavyweight in Belator. Going to be tough. Opener against an Irishman. But yeah, Carl Moore has not fought in, what is it, three years, I believe. Yeah. There's no reason to bet on Carl Moore, but it's also just very difficult for me to bet on.

The one reason I can give you is it's Bellator. It'll be a weekday afternoon technically. And that's when Parley's get killed. That is when Parley's get killed. If you bet on Daniel Zell Hoover last week and you watch that performance, just such a let-down performance. It's okay when the Parlay gets killed. But when you just have to sit there and watch for three rounds and it's like, wow. this guy has nothing.

Like this was a very bad pick on my end. This card is chock full of them. Anyone is this week's Daniel Zell Hoover. The amount of times I've been burnt on a Bellator parlay where the guy just comes out, I think it was Cody Law. At 282, I was in attendance in Connecticut. He was the only leg that missed across like three parleyes.

And he came out and just laid a goose egg. Goosey. He got 3025. There's like a minus 800. And I'm the idiot that plays those things. I mean, look, we all make some choices. This is a good one. You know, you got to have action down. There's nothing else to have action down this weekend. It's Belator Dublin. We have to do it. So listen, I'll just give it to you straight. I got one parlay that's four legs. It's Brett Johns. You know, support my people from Wales. That is something I do. former UFC Yeah Gotta like that I mean

He's also like actually just a pretty decent fighter Yeah I like Brett Johns I kind of thought he got a raw deal In the UFC I mean his UFC losses are Aljo and Pedro Munoz Those are extremely

Like quality losses Yeah Aljo champion Pedro Munoz was top 10 fighter at the time Or maybe he became top 10 just after but it's high quality stuff all right now let's get nasty this is where he fell into the traps in bellator uh you know prospect up and coming hometown irishman one and no professional record derog kelly eight and no amateur watched him in his last fight looked great gets a finish in under two minutes now it gets

kai stevens uh yeah i'm just going to say the irishman isn't going to let me down dera kelly's is leg two of my parley. This is, if you're looking for really insightful analysis, this ain't where you're going to find it, at least not on my end. Can I ask you one question? I know we don't want to get too bogged down. I want you to ask me.

Kai Stevens is an Englishman. Do we feel that he might be fighting for the queen? Wow. In this battle of the Irish versus the English. You know what? I'm going to negate that point. I'm going to say Throg Kelly, is fighting against the queen.

Against the queen? Well, that's the other side of the two. They both have powers. Who's going to overpower the other's power? Historically, the English have won that particular. It's redemption time. It's redemption time at Bellator Dublin, Belator 285. Can I stop going both?

Are we going 285? Or we go in Dublin? Oh, just go Dublin. We'll go Dublin. Even though they've done a bunch of Dublin's, it's still, you just do Dublin. It's like every time the UFC goes to London, and it's UFC London. It doesn't matter that it's actually like their 17th trip there or whatever.

All right, let's keep it going. Another Irishman with not a lot of fights on this record. It's carrying Clark. Short notice opponent in Rafael Hudson. Yeah, just like what Clark's been doing, you know. Oh, do you? Okay. I can't even pretend to know what Kirk has been doing.

I don't know what these guys are doing, dude. I'm just throwing together a little action, a little dumb parlay. He's got a short- Luigi Ireland guy, okay. Yeah, dude, he's got a short-notice opponent coming in who has not been impressive of a late, lost three of his last four. Professional shoot-o-Brazil,

the logo looks like a Mortal Kombat logo. I'm a little worried about that, but I mean, other than that, dude, he's one and three in his last four, Kary and Clark, you know. I think double C, C-squared, as they call them in Dublin, gets this one done.

Plus, just know where your bread is buttered. You know, that's one of my things. You have to know that I'm going into this. They're trying to give him a win. For sure. You've got to kind of think of the squash matches that are getting set up here. I also am going into this, knowing I'm going to lose. It's liberating.

I am the Avengers, Belator Dublin. One of these guys is Thanos. And as they're laying on the mat after getting 30, 24. Ford as a minus 900, they will look dead into the camera and be like, I am inevitable. And I will say, I know,

why do I keep doing this? I know, but I still fight. Fight the good fight, buddy. Next leg of the parlay, fourth and final leg of this parlay, Yoel Romero.

This is one I actually feel good in. Soldier of God. Like, we're ready to go. First, first dog of the week for us, Alex Polizzi, regret that.

Yowl Romero just did what he had to do. We missed. The funny thing is everything you're saying I track with. I have Yowell Romero. I've got one parlay. It's Yol O'O. Romero and Brett Johns, and then I have a third open leg

that I'll fill in with something else in the future, probably the next week's UFC card. Oh, nice. Steve. Maybe. Like those two fights still only got it to like minus 250 if I just parlayed the two of them together. Yeah, because my four leg parlay is minus 102 because if that doesn't, if that doesn't

sound sharp, I don't know what does. I don't know what does. Sharp is cue ball, baby. I mean, sharp is a tack over here. The best part of this, though, is YOL is going to be the one that bust your parlay. It's going, it's not going to be, Karen, it's not going to be any of the other ones you don't know anything about. It's going to be Yoel Romero. He's in the most frustrating way possible, lose to Melvin Man.

Yeah, in the Battle of the Elderly, Melvin Manhoof, 46 years old, is somehow going to best YOL Romero. Yeah. It's, oh, I know exactly how it's going to happen. Yoel's just not going to do anything. I was going to say he's going to throw six significant strikes over 15 minutes. And then when Melvin Manhoa hits him, he's just going to put his hands up and be like, what? Yeah. Melvin's just going to kick him in the leg 10 times.

You all does nothing and you all loses a splitie. Like that's a thousand percent what's going to happen. I'm looking forward to it, to be honest. I'm looking forward to it because when you already know you're going to get hurt, it's tough to really bring you down. So that's the four legs. Brett John's, Carrey and Clark, Throg Kelly, Yowler, Romero, minus 102. with Vegas sees me walking in,

they start shutting windows when you're putting together four-legged parles at minus 102. But then I added our boy Carl Albrexson, top 10 light heavyweight in Bellator. Top 10. And then Mads Bernel,

former UFC fighter, what could go wrong there? That's a little sixth legger. That pays out at plus 212. So yeah, I put out a poll here. What could go wrong? Well, nothing.

I almost had Matt's Bernal just as the third leg of my two-leg parley. So the hot dog pick this week is Diana Silva against Liam McCourt. She's actually moved to being a favorite now. And I almost got on board when she was a dog. And then I was like, do I really want to put my money on 10 and 7 Diana Silva in a low-level women's featherweight out at Bellator Della? And I said, no. Nope, let's save that.

So I just threw a half unit on each of those parles. Throw a unit in the incinerator. Why not? If it works out, that'd be sick. Why not? I respect it. I also took one straight bet on this card. It's prop, though.

I took the over one and a half in the manhuffe-o-romero fight because exactly we were talking about. I actually just don't think Yuel is going to fight him because he doesn't do that. So it's like it's only minus 110 for over one and a half. I don't mind that. This feels incredibly likely, honestly. Yeah, I don't mind that at all. I'm not going to lie to you.

A lack of research, a lack of really caring. I wasn't even aware that the props had been released yet. Draft Kings has like a full prop spread on some of these fights, which is surprising to me. I'm shocked at how much Draft Kings is going out on Beltoe 285, every single fight available. They've got nothing else to do this week, I guess. Just like, well, I guess, sure, let's set some lines here because, I mean. We're not making enough money from the NFL, so we might as well add in the Bellator picks. I mean, it was looking and I was like, oh, there is.

I knew there'd be an over under, but then when I looked into it at D.K., I was like, oh, there's actually everything. Like, I could pick YOL by K.O. minus 175, which probably hits, but I wouldn't feel good putting my money on it. I don't know. Yeah, I might cook up a nasty little prop stew later this week. See what I can do. See what I can do. I'm already a unit down.

We'll see how bad we can get it. You got a chase to get it back. Yeah, that's all I got on Bellator, 285. Sorry if we're letting the people down. That's all I got to. Look, you guys are lucky we're doing this. We didn't have to do it this week. There's no UFC, but we did it for you, for the people,

so we could support you guys for supporting us. Yeah, I can say now the next, off week after the electric Janjohn-Nan, McKenzie Dern card, UFCA pick 61, will likely be podcastless in the in the off week. It seems likely.

I gotta say, man, though, like, it's a bit of a bummer, right? Because we've got this down week, next week, tough hang. Like, that card is a tough hang. Tough. And then another down week.

And then we start getting the gas. Then we get another fight night card. Well, I was going to say that the fight card after that also a little bit of a tough hang. It is. Arrugio Grasso main event. Arujo Grasso main event. Yeah, but that's the Amuse Bouch for UFC 280.

That's, that's, that just wets the palate. I'll agree with that. It's the hors d'oeuvres at the wedding. They're walking around with the tostinis, the crustinis, whatever they call them. A crab cake? Crab cake. Oh, spring roll? Sure, I'll take two.

Bring those around next time. Sliders, I'm down. Yeah, it'll be a nice little thing, calm before the storm. Get you ready. It's 280. Who, I can't wait for. But then we go 280. Then we go Arnold Allen, Calvin Cater made event.

Then I'm sleeping on whatever's after that. It doesn't even matter. And then we go 281. That four-week stretch is going to be fire. So I will say that the one after, between Cater Allen and 281. What is it, Aspen Lad, Sir McMahon got. Redone is the main event of that one? It's a tough hang.

There's not a scheduled main event as of yet. Sick. Looking at the card, I think the main event is probably going to end up being Mavsoor. I have Lov, Bryce Mitchell. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. The best fight on the card. I mean, that's a good fight.

You've got Miranda Maverick, Shania Young, you know, some other fighters that are, actually, it might be Marina Rodriguez, Amanda Lemosch. That might. also be also down for that i'm a huge marina guy yeah and it's a it's it's okay but it's it's a weaker card but again it won't matter appetizing i don't want to be that full going into you want to i don't want to be that full going into it yeah i uh i'm definitely starting to to to come full circle realization that ufc while there's no off season the main season is is like oh the summertime

yeah it's like mid-february to august like march to august we were just getting back Bangor after banger after banger. Yep. They, uh, I mean, they're, their prime stuff is, they're throwing down the middle high heat when it's Super Bowl weekend, basically, until the end of the summer. Yeah. They're trying to, because you get an international fight week in there and you do just that whole stretches.

Great times. It's usually going to be big, big stuff. Great tons. And then they'll close, they close the year pretty strong because you're going to always get the MSG in November. You're going to get one or two in December. Yeah. Yeah.

Yeah. So they usually close the year pretty well as well. The fillers around it, you know, they're fulfilling their contract with the ESPN Plus. I understand what they're doing. And we appreciate it because, you know, sometimes those are where you find the gold. Sometimes those are where you find the plus 2,500 quarry standing at round fours. Sometimes. That's where it is.

Speaking of the plus 2,500 Corey Sandhagan, I'm going to use that to transition us to our final segment. Wait, wait. I have to put the, I have to stop this beautiful transition. And because I got a bet on Chikor-Stevenson. Robson can say so. Just breaking out into boxing. Yeah, at Friday night in Newark, where else would you rather be?

Newark, New Jersey, hometown. I actually got tickets offered, and I said, no, I will not be in town this weekend. Wow. Yeah. Oh, you're on town. Yeah, that probably would have gone. Are you going to the UJK.

Kent State game? Is that what's happening? Yeah, that's going to be sick. But, yeah, Newark, not the easiest place to get to. I'm taking Shakur Stevenson by decision minus 160. He is so juiced up because he's going to win the fight. You can't take him straight. It was leaning maybe as a knockout because he's such a huge favor,

but I actually did a little bit of research into this one. Can say so? He's no pushover dude. Olympic gold medalist, 17 and 1, never been knocked out. Survived Oscar Valdez, who has knockout power for 36 minutes. Chikor Stevenson really not the biggest knockout artist. Nine of his 18 wins, which is not that. incredible in boxing.

And then three of his last four gone to a decision, four of his last six have gone to a decision. I really just think Shakur Stevenson is just going to style on him for 12 rounds. So yeah, I'll lay some chalk on a Shakur by decision. Hi, Shakur is, I'm looking at minus 2,500. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That is, that's a big number. The thing I hate is that on general principle, I kind of, you kind of.

of want to bet on Conceau just because like... One of a gold medalist. Exactly. He's an Olympic gold medalist. He at least knows how to box. And I know that amy boxing and pro boxing not the same thing. But like, if he was plus 2,000, I'd take the shot. But I'm looking at him as like plus a thousand.

Yeah. Just like that's... That's Vegas for you. The Vegas knows what they're doing. They're creating a gulf there. Yes. It's the vague. It's the juice.

The house always won. wins. So much juice there. It's so juicy. Yeah. I can't. I can't do it. But man, on general principle.

That's boxing for you, though. When people ask why I'm not a huge boxing fan, it's because 90% of the fights are minus 2,500. It's tough to bet boxing. That is absolutely for sure. Chaucor Stevenson had a run where every single time he fought, I was like, oh, of course Stevenson's fighting. And then I checked the odds and he was minus 10,000. Yeah.

That's just sort of how it goes in a lot of ways. It's a tough hang. Yeah. But I wish you the best in your boxing. Yeah, it's probably going to lose. I'm ready to lose everything this weekend. It's all right. Very nihilistic honor this week.

Listen, I'll be all right. I'll put down like a total like two, two and a half units if I win something. If I lose it all, I'll win it right back on UFC Apex 61. Oh, yeah. And 280? I mean, 280 is going to be the perfect night. I already have like seven bets down for 280. I'm not going to lie to you.

And you're going to hit all of them. Hit Monofier-O at an opener on minus one. 75, pretty proud of that. Yeah, I... The viewer has to have moved. Yeah, she's like, mine is 280. Yeah. Best fightout, it's on notification.

Shout out. Always have them on. Dude, I love the notifications. You were just so on point. I mean, I said, well, I knew I was betting Fior-O. And as soon as I saw that, I mean, you should see me when I see some of these odds drop because I know how fast they move. I frantically try to place the bed.

Well, I have to talk about it then. But do you not have some concerns that Caitlin Chukagian by decision is the death and taxes? I know it's a thing. I've won on it several times, but the beast is my girl. Marina and Manon are my two girls. I love Mano. And I think she should win, but I am concerned. But we'll talk about that in three weeks.

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All right, let's get into the last segment. We've got a special segment. We're going to close it down, because I, I pitched this to you the other week when I knew we'd have this off week because one of the things that I get the most is when you were off on your European adventures, you know, going to Paris, seeing Cyril Gahn and all that. Take me back. Had a couple. You left me here in the trenches, taking grenades. And so I brought in some people.

I brought in Mike Heck from Mayfine.com. He places a wage every now and then. It was a fine episode. but I brought in Alexander K. Lee, who had never bet him in May before. And the entire premise was, A.K., I'm going to teach you how to bet because a lot of people, especially new fans, maybe they don't know how to bet. I've gotten so much feedback on that sense. One, I will say, we turned A.K. into a better.

And God, I love it. That man is now talking to me constantly about action. He's doing stuff. It's the best. It makes me so happy. But I get so, I've gotten so many messages. from fans from listeners being like, hey, I was a really great episode. Like, I haven't ever really bet MMA before. And so I got to learn some stuff. Or people just asking for more teach me how to

bet things beyond just ride, you know, riding the rails with us. And so what I decided we should do is we should help these people out because we're friendly guys. We want everybody to come in, have a good time to do it the right way and to have some fun. So I thought what we were. We would do. So we create the MMA betting rule book. You know, you got to have a set of guidelines, principles to live by. I've got some. They're not written down. They're not codified. But let's do that right now. And so I've got a list of several items. You've got some items. And we're basically just going to talk through the rules by which to bet MMA and how we do it. And so I'm going to lead us off. Please do. And then I'll throw it to you because rule number one, the

most important thing when betting MMA to take into consideration is that flyweight unders never lose. Never lose. Never lost. They are the lock of the century. We did the math. We did the science. This is backed by science.

Five out of ten, Dennis recommend it. It's the rule number one, as far as I'm concerned for M.A. betting. I mean, I went back through my bets for this year, and I am 7 and 0 betting on flyweight unders. Wow. First one I did of the year was Schnellroy Val back at 274. And the biggest thing about these things, none of them have ever seen a third round when we take these. Just killing it. Almost all of them are first round finishes.

is Jillian Robertson this past weekend, we delved in to the women's MMA flyweight undersers, worked out for us. Don't know how regular of the thing that's going to be, but I am happy to jump on the opportunities when they present themselves like they did this past weekend. I'm serious. Flyweight unders are my favorite bets to make.

When I see the flyweight's making the walk, those just athletic, strong, just great-looking people, that walkout to the octagon, I'm pacing around my, my house. It's, it's not just the financial ties. It's the emotional ties at this point because I'm so buried deep into the flyweight under strain. Oh, yeah, man. It's, and it's just electric. It is just electric to watch. Because, you know, they, they come out for action, full gas, all gas, no breaks, baby, and it's, it's great. And I'm glad we found this. I'm glad we are the, we're the people who discovered this, you know,

It's been passed long. It's made waves. National Radio, Dan Levitard show. Don't know if you guys have ever heard of it. It was presented to them. They denied it. They denied the book of Flyweight Unders, and it cost them. Yeah.

Yeah, our man, Tony. Our man, Tony presented it to them. We need to talk to them. Yeah, it was the Silva Ultimarano fight. They faded it and took the over and lost. They just got obliterated. They didn't lose. They lost badly.

I didn't know this. I'm glad to, I thought we got through to Tony. And obviously, Tony couldn't get through. Couldn't get through to others. That's, I didn't know this. All I'm saying is Newton discovered gravity, Ben Franklin discovered electricity. We discovered flyweight unders. You judge who's given the most to mankind.

I think the answer is simple. Get the checkbooks ready for October because I've already got my eyes on quite a few. We got a few of them coming up. And the retirement count needs to be padded. Got to build up retirement. That's how we do it, baby. All right. While we're on the subject, I'll give one.

This is one that has been tested and proven. Always bet on the Magamad. If the man has Magamad in his name, I don't know if there's ever been a female Magamad. I'm sure there has been at some point. But if there is a Magamette in the name, you bet on that. They are 50 and 8 all times. in the UFC.

Don't know how it translates to Bellator or other sports, but there is a man by the name of... Can you repeat those numbers just for the people in the back in case they didn't hear that? 50 and 8. 50 and 8 all time. That's pretty decent. Pretty good in my opinion,

hitting at that kind of a clip. Yeah, 50 and 8 all time. Don't know if it transfers to Bellator. We're going to test those waters when a little man named a magomed magomedov takes on patchy mix double the magamad double the magamad makes up for it being in belator i will definitely be betting on him to be patchy mix in december uh that is the rule that i present to you i love this rule i had a very similar rule down of if a man's if a man's name has ov or uh yeah the oves yeah any of the oves

or chev in it, it's just don't, don't bet against them. Just never bet against the aves and the cheves. Very similar rule. I'm fully on board with you. The next one. Yes, go. The next one I would like to present. And I want to let you wax a little more on this,

because I spoke some about this with AK when we were talking through it. Actually, no, I'll table that for a second, because I will say the second most important rule for me personally, And arguably, it's the most important rule. It certainly was until we discovered fly weights. Betting is supposed to be fun. MMA betting, the entire purpose of doing this is not to pad the retirement account, even though that's what we do.

It's to have fun. And so my betting philosophy is guided entirely by that. If there's a bet that I could make that's not as fun as a bet that I could make, I'm not going to pick the one that's less fun. I'm going to pick the bet that is fun to do. If there's any reason that a bet might not be fun, let's say theoretically, a tragedy occurs to a fighter, he has a family member die. I'm not going to bet against that because it's not fun to bet against a man who's battling through things like that. Betting is supposed to be fun.

Take that shot. Add that extra leg to the parlay. Throw a couple bucks down on a plus $2,500 long shot. have fun with it. That's the most important rule other than fly weights to me. Yes, I couldn't agree with you more. It's the first thing that I wrote down. I mean, getting bogged down sometimes in the MMA betting Twitter sphere is just nauseating. How serious some of these people take this stuff. Like, I get that you're playing with money and I get that it sucks when you lose. But it's just like you can't be so miserable when you lose. Like give yourself 10 minutes, give yourself 15

minutes, whatever it takes, huff and puff, do whatever you want when you lose a bet, and move on. Like, this is meant to be fun. Have fun with it. Make the stupid bets. I have people hitting me up after Pat Sabatini loses, and they're like, I think it's time you stop these gimmicks and getting t-shirts and getting cheese steaks and doing this, that and the other. I'll never stop.

I'll never stop because it's hilariously fun, especially when it hits. If Pat Sabatini goes out there and wins, say the rolls are reversed, he wins in the first round, I got one cheese steak in hand and I'm dancing around my living room if that happens and it's hilarious and it's fun. I'm never going to stop doing that. It's fun. That is what betting is supposed to be. You are not going to retire on this. You are not going to pay down your mortgage with these winnings.

You would have to have such a massive bank role and have such a disciplined process to be able to do that. You're not like if you're just getting in this just for some action, that's not what is going to happen. So have fun with it. Please. Exactly. Yeah, I mean. Is it? I will now offer to you for the next one.

Yeah, I mean, like while we're on the sort of the more serious rules here, one just like explanation thing is, you know, speaking of being disciplined is units. Kind of a phrase that gets thrown around and not everyone knows what it means. A lot of people, you know, that don't take it as seriously or are new to the betting sphere, kind of, you know, sort of laugh it off and everything. It does kind of sound like a little bit pretentious, a little bit douches, It's super sounds douchey.

Yeah, yeah. I recognize it. I recognize it 100%. I used to be the guy that was like, this guy talks about you and it's what I fucking can't listen to this. It's just a standard measurement. Yes. It makes sense.

Once you understand why people do it, it makes sense. Not everyone has the same amount of money. Not everyone has the same bank roll, which a bank roll is money you have set aside strictly to use for betting, which should be the first thing. you are going to do if you are going to embark on a betting journey. Never bet with the mortgage. Oh, my God. Never just keep plopping money into the account and just keep losing it.

No, track your results. Keep a spreadsheet. Do whatever you have to do. I got too late into the game before I realize what bet MMA tips is. They are a third-party tracking service. Do whatever you have to do to track your bets, track your results, to actually see how you're doing, to see how you're doing. to see how your bankroll is, set aside that bankroll.

And then with that bankroll comes the units. Units is 1% of your bankroll. If your bankroll is $500, a unit is $5. And I can't speak for everybody on this, but for me, the scale is 0.1 unit to 5 units. I rarely ever, in a year of giving out picks on the UMAR, I've never given out a 5-unit bet, that would be a max bet for me. These people that I see that are like 10 units here, 20 units here, Oh, Max bet a hundred units.

It's like, dude, you're just trying to inflate numbers that makes no sense. You're losing the whole purpose of the scale at this point. If you're consistently making 10 unit bets, then that's your one unit. Like, that's what it is. The unit scale is not meant to inflate your numbers. It's meant to give a universal language. If I'm talking to Bill Gates and I'm like, yeah, man, I got a unit down on Maga Med, Maga Medov here. And he's like, oh, how much you put?

And I'm like, $10. He's like, what is the point of this? Because you can come to Bill Gates and be like, I've threw 20 bucks. I was like, is that like a quarter? I don't understand what that means. Exactly. Exactly. What is the point of that for me?

It's a universal language. I have friends that bet thousands of dollars. Sometimes I will give out my picks and they'll send me my picks that I gave out and they have $1,000 on it. And I'm like, oh, God, like, I'm nervous for that. But then it's like, that's their unit size. That's how much money they make. That is what they put on bet.

so it's not that foreign to them. So yeah, it's just a common language. That's all it is. And it really helps with bankroll management. Yep, I've got it here. My, I genuinely don't. I think I will occasionally bet over like 10 units or whatever. Occasionally.

I see people where every bet is 10 units. Yeah, your bet should be a standard unit. That's your unit then. Yeah, 1% of the bankroll and occasionally. And then sometimes, and I'll lead this in to my next one here, sometimes I, even perhaps on this very program, I have not obeyed this rule, which is that there are no sure things. There's no such thing as a lock beyond flyweight unders. And so that's the reason you don't bet more than five, ten units on a thing. You don't put 100% of your bank roll.

of 50% of your bankroll. Please don't do that. Because sometimes you do that on Valentina Shvchenko, and then you are literally staring down bankruptcy and being like, I've made a massive mistake. That's, in all seriousness, that's why you should have a max bet in mind. What is your max bet where you reach that confidence, where you really are like, I don't see how this loses. Like this past weekend, my most confident one was Joe.

Piper. I was like, this guy is going to win. I can almost guarantee it. So say I wanted to take a single on him, I would have a max bed. My max bed in my mind is five units and it would just, you know, I would pull the trigger on that. But yeah, it's like what you're saying. There are no sure things. There are no locks, dude. I've been gambling for 10 years and I can promise you there are no locks in this game. None. And the amount of locks that I've had lose. Oh, dude, it happens. And that's the thing. Your max bet, if you're putting whatever you've set your max bet, it should be like you said.

It should be something that you feel like or in your heart would be like, I would bet my house on it. But you don't actually bet your house on it because you're a reasonable person and you recognize that especially in this game, do they absolutely anything going to happen. Oh, my God. In MMA, too, it's so volatile. And the max bet, it should be a lot. It should be where when it's coming up, this is the one. This is big bet. The vibes are high.

We're a little bit nervous. But it should also be if you lose, your night isn't ruined. Your week isn't ruined. Your life isn't ruined. Yes. Like, you're not going to be a bitter, angry person that everyone around you. Like, there's nothing worse. And I've been guilty of it before.

Then the guy that loses the bets or is having a bad night and he just becomes a sour grape and he's not fun to hang out. with like don't be that guy don't be that guy dude because like if you want people to celebrate and go crazy with you when you went don't be the guy that's sulking and being the worst at the party when you lose absolutely which actually your what you just said there's no such thing as a lock don't go crazy on it actually leads me to a point in my opinion don't chase don't chase and when you lose on great rule when you lose on way too much don't chase it don't chase it don't Don't go after it.

You go into the night with your bets. Maybe you want to throw in a live bet. Maybe you have a plan to do that. Don't chase on it. Just this past weekend. Just this past weekend. I had the losing week. I tweet about it.

Yeah, lost this week. It is what it is. We'll be back next week. Try and win it back. And someone hits me up immediately. Is it time to win it all back on Triple G? And I'm like, no. And I pray that that guy actually didn't try and do that because now, not only did you have a losing

week, now you've just made it even worse. you're just even more in the gutter. Now do you even have that desire to chase even more? Don't chase because the bets that you're coming into, which leads me to another point is do the work, put in the research, are hopefully heavily researched. You have reasoning behind it. You know why you took the bet. When you start chasing, man, you're throwing darts, dude. You start playing on a motion. You start trying to get it back. You, you know, you start betting with your heart over your brain. And things can go bad there. And I just never encourage anyone to chase.

100%. And that's the thing too, because like, if you, when I lose a bet, I at least know I had a reason. And maybe when I go back and look at it, I'm like, okay, that was, I miss evaluated this or I didn't take this to account. But I can feel good knowing that I, I knew what I was doing or had a reason. If you, you throw a dart chasing and you miss, then it's like, oh, I was just being an idiot. Like it wasn't like I was being smart and I miss. something. It was, I was just being stupid. And it's, it's, it doesn't help. It gives you nothing

but regrets. 100%. I'm with you on the don't chase. I'd like to, I'd like to leverage this into my next one, which is also a little more serious. I genuinely mean this to everyone because this was a, I've had some people ask me about this. Always hedge your parleyes. Yes, I, I, always hedge your parlays. A bird in the hands. is worth two in the bush every time. I cannot, if you've got a four leg down and you've hit the first three, and you're just waiting on that last leg to come through, even if it is your most confident leg of the parlay,

it's Canelo Triple G. Obviously, Canello's going to win this one. I feel the best about it. I'm just going to let it ride. Just hedge. Just take the guaranteed payout because there are no guarantees. And so I explained this to AK once. I have a system for hedging.

My hedging on parley's, it's binary. If I feel really, really good about the last leg, when I make my hedge bet, it is just to cover if the last leg fails. Yes. If I don't, if the last leg's up in the air, I make a middle hedge, which is where either way the outcome goes, I make as much profit as possible between the two, right? So one is basically to cover my losses should, should the last leg somehow lose, but maximize the amount I gain even throwing the hedge down. The other is, I'm not as sure. I'll just take the max guaranteed profit either way, but always, always hedge. Yes, 100%.

If a hedge is presented to you, which if you don't understand what a hedge is, it's if you have a parlay in and you are down to the last leg, don't do it when there's two legs left because something can go wrong. when you are down to the last leg, and this brings me to another point of not parlaying underdogs, do not parlay underdogs that just take them straight. That's really rule number one. Yeah, there should never be a reason where you're not just taking it straight. I would hate to see you parlay up a plus 150, a plus 170, a plus 110, go two for three, and you could just be swimming in profits instead of having zero dollars. Because you're not parlaying underdogs and you're parlaying favorites,

the hedge out opportunity will be at plus money for you, which means you can take it to, equate to what you bet, which is what I do when I hedge if I feel really confident on it. But hedging is just a great opportunity to just make a situation even better. Like you are now sitting, say you took a parlay, it's plus 200, you have three legs down, but your last leg is minus 400. You are now sitting on a minus 400 at plus 200. The other side coming back at plus 280. Why?

I am never afraid. I'm never afraid to hedge. I'm never afraid to not chase. You just, you like, yeah, yeah. It's insurance. You're buying insurance. And it's all like buying insurance, unless you're playing blackjack, buying insurance is always the way to go.

Yes. Cover your bases. Which also leads me to another point on, you know, hedging. You know, this is actually one of the last serious rules that I have, and then we can get back to the fun stuff. I feel like this is the most serious I've ever gotten on the pod. But one more that I have, maybe some people will disagree. if you like the fighter and you like the number, play it.

Play it. If you think they're going to win, don't be afraid. Don't feel like you have to get peer pressured into only taking plus money plays. Like I see a lot of people falling victim to this. And I'm a proud chalk donkey, man. I'll say it. I like taking chalk and it's been profitable for me. And I find winnings with it.

and it's a system of success that I have found in betting. And I will receive flack for it. Typically on a weekly basis, oh, a lot of favorites. Oh, man, you only take the safe bets and you win no money. It's like, well, I am winning money. I am profitable at this point long-term better in MMA. And it's just a system that I have. You don't have to adopt anyone else's system.

Do what you do. If what you do is just playing four or five dogs every week Can you find profitability with that? Do that. If you play chalk, if you do a mix of both, whatever your system is, play that. Like, if you like a fighter and you like the number, take it. Like, just take it. It doesn't matter.

Like, say you like a guy at minus 170. Take that. Like, you should go into it before you even look at the odds. You should go into it having an idea of what you want to play that guy at. You should do the research. You should do the tape study and then take a look at the odds. That's exactly how I do it. Couldn't agree more.

Don't be afraid of chalk. Vegas knows what they're doing. Vegas, they're no dummies. Vegas knows what they're doing, dude. That's another tip, man. If you think you're outsmarting Vegas, chances are you probably are not. Yeah. They got some smart people, got some supercomputers, whatever they've got.

Another one, just because this has been a thing lately, and this is less of a rule for betting and more of a rule for the karma gods. Because this has happened a lot with a very high profile individual who I won't name. Never knock another better. Like, we're all in this together. This is, we're not battling each other. We're battling the books. And that's, I don't care if a dude hasn't won in 20 bets because it doesn't matter.

Like, because you could be that guy and you don't want to inspire the karma gods to come back on you and say, you bagging this man because he can't hit a parlay to save his life. Guess what? Your next 50 bets, you're going to be tossing bricks out. There's no, it's not the good energy. We're all in this together. No. No.

Positive vibes, man. Like, and guess what? This is another one. This is the last. I have two more serious ones. Not every cold streak is going to last forever. Not every hot streak is going to last forever. last forever. I had eight straight winning weeks. I have one losing week and everyone is reminding me

of how I had a losing week. And I'm just like, yep, it's what you've done for me lately. I understand getting the flack, but hopefully we can bounce back. Yeah, high profile guy. Not going to name names, but I'm pretty sure he went perfect last night and the cold streak was bound to, was bound to end eventually. Like, I don't understand this shitting on other betters thing. It's, I, I have never taken part in it. I don't like taking part in it. Dude, it's supposed to be fun. It should be you against the bookies.

And in my eyes, dude, it's just a little bit of karma. You're just building the bad beats up in your wallet for that. Like, I don't down another better, dude. Like, it's supposed to be fun, man. Like, you are so lame doing that. Like, people who jump on me in my mentions when I have a losing week. It's just like, right? kick rocks, man.

Like your opinion is worthless to me. I don't care. Like, the flag that I see on MMA Twitter is betting Twitter can get ridiculous sometimes. Let me also, I don't, it shouldn't be necessary to say it, but sadly it is. This also, don't ever bag a fighter because you lost a bet. Mostly only the worst people in the world do this. And I'm confident that the worst people in the world are. not listeners to us because our fan base is the best in the world.

But don't do it. Like it's just, it's bad karma and it's just a really shitty thing to do. So don't make sure we're not doing that. Yeah. Yeah. Anything I say about like this week, I've been jokingly mentioning Zell Hoover, but like I'm not going to bag the dude as an actual fighter and man. Like I'm not going to go hit him up on Instagram or Twitter and like shit on his family

or anything like that. Yeah, it's insane. Yeah, I don't know. These are all just rules that we live by. The last one that I have is just do the work, do the research, put in the time. Just like watch the tape, look at the stats, look at the trends, look at what's going on, listen to as many people as you can. And also don't think that people are Bibles. I am wrong so much.

I am wrong so much. I feel like so many people are. Like get as many opinions as you can. Get as many different angles as you can. Fights play out in different ways, man. Sometimes you can be the biggest thing I'm. I always think of is sometimes you can be so sure of a bet. And then the fight starts and you're like halfway into round one and you're like, oh, this is not going how I thought I was going to go.

And then the minutes just ticked by and you're like, oh, wow, this is this is really not going how I thought it was going to play out. And you're like, wow, this is a bad bet. I did not see this coming. So yeah, just put in the work, man. The more reasoning you have for a bet, the better you'll feel about it and the better you'll feel when you lose when you know why you took it when you know exactly why you took it and you lose it in my opinion it's more comforting a hundred percent i've got two more one of them tags into your zell huber thing i avoid debuting fighters i don't that's a smart one it's smart one fighters you can't trust fighters you don't know what they're going to do like i just mentioned bellator is full of them oh yeah well that's

Also, this rule could just be avoid Bellator because you have no idea what's going to happen. The Zell-Huber thing, like, I thought he's going to win. I intentionally stayed away from that fight because you don't know. I mean, they're fighters, they're people. And there's just such a difference between getting to the show and not, even if you can be as confident as possible. It's a little bit of the chaos hammer when they're making their big, big time debut. Everything's different. It's a whole new world.

You just never know. So I always avoid debuting fighters. I really do. I think that's a good one. That's one I had written down. Last one, I think it's one of the more important ones, ties into a lot of the other stuff we've said. Never, ever, ever, ever bet against your own team. Never do it.

I see so many people who are like, I'll bet against the Bulldogs. Then if the Bulldogs lose, I still made money. you are inviting the Carmel Police to just punch you in the face as hard as they possibly can. If you've got a favorite fighter, don't bet against him. I don't care if your favorite fighter is Tony Ferguson because he's going to lose next time out because he's washed, he lost five in a row. If he's your favorite fighter, you can't bet against him. There's no world that you can bet against that, man. It's just not how the game is played.

Here's the thing, too. Here's the thing. All those people that are like, I'll bet against the Bulldogs. And if they lose, I win money. so I'm happy. Flip side, they win, and now you've lost money, and now you look like a fool for going against your team and not believing in them.

Yeah. You're not believing in them. Losing that money is going to sting. Like, it's going to sting. I don't care how big of a fan you are of a team, dude. It's going to sting losing that money. And it just takes away from it. Where if you bet on them, they win his underdogs,

like that Kikara-France against Ascar-Ascarov plus 300 was such a fulfilling bet. And when he lost against Brandon Moreno, I did not sit there all angry. I was like, I know why I made the bet. It's because I'm a Kai Kara-France fan. I back that dude in the fire. And that's that. We move on.

We ride to the next one. I'm with you on that. Or stay away if you have to. Stay away. You don't have to bet. Don't bet against them. Don't bet against them. Because say I had bet Brandon Moreno and Kai had won, I would have felt like such an asshole.

I would have been like, I could have made money and doubled down on this. Yeah, exactly. I see it a lot out there, and it's, you're not, it's important. If you don't believe in karma, you're just wrong. Like, no better. They say that there are no atheists in foxholes. There are no atheists in sports betting. You believe in the karma gods. They are going to punish you. If you, if you don't give them respect. In every aspect of life, I am the least superstitious, superstitious person ever in betting, I am the most superstitious person. I like, if I'm on a hot streak, I won't get a haircut. I won't change, like, I wear like some stuff on my wrist.

I won't change anything on my wrists or anything like that. I get real superstitious, which actually brings me to a point. This is a strategic move on the superstitious part. Hold your bathroom breaks for fights that you have the over on because... Oh, fantastic. The overs are just, they are just miserable to go through. Like, you're lying if you don't think they are. Sandhagen and Song Yadong, pretty certain that one was going to go the over one and a half.

I'm still in my house kind of pacing around, just like any big shot. There was one point in the second round. San Hagen got hit and he stumbled back and it looked like he was wobbled. And like, I was like, no, no, oh no. It's like, go to the bathroom. What you do? You go to the bathroom. You take your time, wash your hands twice.

maybe floss, do something like that, you know, listening. You have the ear out on your friends in the room watching. And if status quo remains, you're like, time's just ticking off. We're almost at that over. And then if they go crazy and you know that the fight is over, he's just chill in the bathroom, wallow in it for a minute, you know, collect yourself, splash a little water in the face, you know, get out that hurt, that depression. Then you come out and you're like, yeah, I heard you guys, I heard you. It's whatever. It's not a big deal.

It's not a big deal. It's not a bit of you. You wipe the tear off your eyes is what it is. Which also leads me to one other point. Do not ever, ever count your chickens before they have hatched. Do not start spending that money. You may not do that. Until it has hit your account.

Just a few weeks ago, I had Kamaro Usman finishing two, three parleyes. And here I am. I am a Kamaru Usman supporter. He has finished many a parlay for me. and I'm sitting there talking to my friends like a jackass in the fifth round and I'm like, Kamar Usman, dude, guy is just a professional parley finisher. This guy just finishes parleyes for me. Every last two years, three years, parlay up Kamar Usma because he's going to finish it.

I'm just like, yep, texting with you and Rick. I'm just like, yeah, this guy just finishes. Boom! All parley's killed. one kick because what was I doing being an asshole and counting my chickens before they hatch, making plans for what I was going to spend that money on before it even hit my account, and he got ripped away from me in one blow, especially in this sport. I mean, never say it's over, never talk about it.

There was a March Madness, UFC London in March. There was a March Madness game on UNC Baylor, Baylor or UNC, one of the two. I think it was UNC, yeah, it was UNC up 25. And I was just like, no, not over, not over. And one of my friends at the bar we were at, they were just like, this one's over, you guys got this one. Baylor came all the way back and forced it into overtime from 25 down. And it's just like, it's just bad juju to say it's over.

It's bad juju. It's never over until it's over, especially in MMA, especially in MMA where it takes, where you can be down 100 at nothing and come. back like that in MMA. Like, it is never over until it's over. Do not count those chickens before they hatch. That's perfect.

That's a great note to end on. We have created the first MMA betting rulebook. I have one less one. This one. This is the one of the lab. This is the one in the lab. Okay. Oh, this is, so this isn't in the rule book yet, but we're working on it.

We've got 15 locked in rules, and now we've got a science experiment. Yeah, I'm a little nervous to debut this to the public. And I don't know how to test this. this history-wise, so we're just going to have to test it moving forward. It's the rash guard rule. When women come out and they're wearing the rash guard, I don't know if I just like, if it's just me picking up on it at the times, I was at UFC Long Island. Two women fought in rash guards that night. Michelle Waterson, Misha Tate. Both got pummeled. Pummeled. And I was like, wow. And then I just kind of picked up on it. There was another woman. I think it was

was on UFC San Diego, she fought in a rash guard. That's why I can't look up the historical things. You can't really Google who fought in a rash guard recently. And she lost as well. And I said after that, I was like, man, don't bet on the woman in the rash card. I feel like that might be bad juju. Loma look boon me this weekend. Comes out in the rash guard.

Loses it mid-fight. It's like, nah, not doing this anymore. Wins the fight. Lost the rash guard, won the fight. This is in the very early stages. It's something to keep an eye on. It's something to track. I'm going to be aware of it moving forward.

But I'd like to say that hypothesis is officially under testing. I love it. The most fun thing we do here is when we have, we are a podcast of science. And when we have theories, we test them. It led us to the great discovery of flyweight unders. Heavyweight overs is still, it's in, we're past beta. I mean, we're ready to get FDA approval, just go to mass marketing with it. We're on the cusp.

And now we've got a new one. Now we've got a new beta. We've got that Leah McCourt, Diana Silva fight for Bellator Dublin. Let's see if the rash guard theory. Yeah, yeah. I can see who's going to come out to Rashgard? Liam McCourt? Is she a rash guard fighter?

I honestly have no idea. I've never considered the Rashguard theory. Exactly. That's the tough part. Who would be? Listen, all I'm saying, this is new ground. Yes, I think, I think Leah McCourt is a rash guard fighter. Yeah, I'm looking at some pictures right now.

It's just something to keep an eye on. If options, let's test the theory this weekend. We'll see. Right now I'm going to be an observer of this hypothesis. I won't officially start taking it until we get a few things. It's tough because you don't know if they're going to come out in the rash guard or not. It has to be a live bet because you don't know what they're going to do. But I'm interested.

You've piqued my interest, good sir. All right. That's all I've got. That's all you've got. Hey, we'll do this in tight 45 minutes. We'll get in. We'll get out. Here we are.

It went much longer than that. What's new. Shocker. Got a little serious there, but, you know, we do get a lot of questions about the betting stuff. Hopefully this could be helpful to you guys. You know, hope I didn't come off too pretentious and look down upon me talking about the rules. But yeah, these are just guidelines that I've learned over the last decade. betting that have, I have found success in consistently placing wagers weekend after weekend.

So hopefully they can be a help to y'all as well because Jed came with some great rules as well. He's been in this game for a long time. So yeah, that was the goal. Hopefully it helped. Let us know. If not, we can just keep talking about Philly cheese steaks and all that. We can keep adding to the rulebook as necessary. Oh, we will be. We will be. We have the definitive MMA betting rulebook. We will be. Nobody else has this. It's our thing. Hop on board.

All right. That's that. UFC Vegas, UFC Apex. We'll cut that out. UFC Apex 61. Next week, Mackenzie Dern, Jan Jan Jan,

Jan, I don't like the dog. I don't mind the dog. There's a lot of options. We'll see what happens. Everybody loves Dern. I don't want the dog. We'll see what I do.

We'll see what I do. That's for next week, though. Thanks for listening. We'll see you then. Love you guys To the Vox Media Podcast Network