MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Does Alex Pereira Truly Have Israel Adesanya's Number Or Will Izzy Reclaim The Title At UFC 287

Episode Date: April 5, 2023

After a one week hiatus, the UFC returns with another pay-per-view this Saturday when Alex Pereira and Israel Adesanya rematch in MMA (and compete against other for the fourth time) in the main event of UFC 278, and so the No Bets Barred boys are back to discuss. This week, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew are joined by an old favorite, Tony Calatayud of Dan Le Batard Show fame to break down all the best action at UFC 278, and there is almost immediate dissension in the ranks as opinions differ on the the main event, and who will win this fourth fight between Pereira and Adesanya. The rest of the breakdowns go similarly as there are a ton of live dogs this week and action abounds on all sides of the card. Then, to wrap things up, Jed introduced Tony to The Next Big Thing in MMA Gambling, the ChatGPT Bet. Tune in for Episode 40 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Tony Calatayud: @10DayTony Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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We are back. It is another edition of No Betz Bar, this time for UFC 287. Alex Pereira Israel Adasania 2? Alex Pereira, Israel, Adesania 4? Which one is it? It depends. It will be the fourth time they're fighting in combat sports. We are making a return to Miami.

first time in almost 20 years that the promotion has been back. And that means we have a special guest. Tony. Come on. I'm going to butcher your last name if I say it, bro. The only man to turn to. Say it, say it, say it. Calladio.

Yes. That's it? You're kidding me. Let's go. Nailed it. First try. I'm super excited. The last time I was here, boys, I want to say it was 278.

The head kick heard across the world. That was it. That was the last time I was here, I want to say. And we were like, oh, sleepy card in Salt Lake City, like, who really cares? And then, boom, that happened. So, like, you know something good is going to happen this time because I was here for a great one last time. But I'm excited to be here to work some juju. I need you to work some juju for us.

Actually, you were like one of the first that we really indoctrined into flyweight under. Yes, yes, 100%. And heavyweight overs, too. Yes, heavyweight overs. I'm in both camps. I've been preaching to the masses. Like you've converted me and I've been preaching to the masses like my boys back home and all across that are in DK states. I'm like, hey, make sure you guys are betting flyweight unders.

It's the gospel. Please do it. I know we've had some trip-ups along the way, but the gospel still goes. Oh, the gospel still goes. That's for sure. Unfortunately, none on this card to get any action. Just a quick recap going into last week. No UFC, Gamebred boxing, fight circus, PFL, Bela, T, T, Lato.

or anything you consumed, anything you bet on this past week, both Jed and Tony. Nothing for me. I had a bachelor party this weekend, so I were off the grid, off the map. I actually went full off the grid, didn't even bring my laptop and just disconnected except for to watch the, obviously final four, men's and women's electric game. Yeah. The budget meter was crazy. My Keynes too.

Oh, my case. Tough one. It's my- Tough one for our Keynes. All right, so I will say this. My roommate is a diehard Miami fan, so he was paying close attention. And the Elite 8 game, when you were down 10, 12, however much it was, took Miami plus 525 on the money line the comeback. It was a thing of beauty.

Huge. I'm Keynes till I die at this point. 305 for life. Yeah, that was a tough one. It's just, I don't think, I'm trying to remember where I saw it, but somebody, had said that it was the hardest road to a final four or championship game in history that Miami had to go through

to make it to the final four and to like win a championship. Like every team was just a murderer's row of like legit college basketball teams. And it was tough. But there's only so much that a small team can propel itself when you see Yukon and they've got a guy 7-2 and Sonogo who's like 6-10.

And just, dude, their front court was huge. So it was tough. But I did not bet anything. fighting-wise. I was plugged in here and there, seeing the results and stuff, but I didn't have any cash.

I've been saving it for this week. That's the smart way to do it. That's the smart way to do it. I took some Belvoir action. I took some PFL action. Lost everything. I mean, it's just a money gutter. So you're due. Perfect.

I mean, you say geez, but I'm talking like four bets and like 1.2 units worth of exposure. I mostly just made it as geez that this year. Oh, yeah, man. It's gotten to the point where like I'm almost talking about myself and the third person as a mosh. I'm just like, oh, Connor's on that?

I'm going to be on the opposite. Yeah, I mean, the confidence is gone. I don't know what to do. I could watch 20 hours of tape and still have no idea what to do. So that was the weekend it was. Can still be proud Miami, Final Four, women's elite eight as a nine seed.

First time it's in program's history, so it's huge. Got to be happy there. Let's get right into it. It's the main event of the weekend. It's the main event of the month, in my opinion, in terms of combat sports,

UFC 287. How's the vibes down in the 305? That's why we bring Tony on. If you don't know him of Lebitard fame, you need to get right. You need to change how you're going. Step your shit up, guys. At 10 Day Tony on Twitter and Instagram.

At 10 Day Tony on Twitter and on Instagram. He's got boots on the ground. Boots on the beach, as I like to say, for UFC Miami. What's the vibe like? How high is South Beach going right now for UFC? So the beautiful thing about Miami is that it could be any given day on any given month, on any given year, and something is happening. So when we were first

talking, like, before we started recording, you're like, how's the vibe down there? I'm like, vibes are great. As always. As always. It's 80 degrees. It's sunny and it's February. It's 87 today. So it's a hot one. Sounds tough. As a man that likes hot weather, that's like my dream. Oh, dude. So we were touring, uh, we're actually leaving. So our studios for, for Levitart show are on South Beach at the Clevelander. We're actually moving, uh, studios to a other studio kind of in downtown Miami right across the street from what is now the Casaya Center, which I will never call it that. I will,

that's the last time I'm ever going to call it that, the AAA. Our studio is going to go right across from the AAA. So I was watching it and I was like, oh shit, that's right. UFC 287 this weekend. Like I'm super excited.

The vibe across the city. People have not thought about it yet because we're a late arriving crowd in Miami, right? Like that's why the UFC was very hesitant to put, shows and events down here because it's like, man, are we going to have all these late arriving people? Is it going to make sense? Are we going to stack the car with wrestlers and nobody's going to want to watch? Like a lot of things to consider. But if I know one thing, it's Miami and I know that we're going to show out Friday night, it's going to be the talk of the town. Saturday morning, people are going to get really excited. I know people that want to get in the building and it's

upwards of four digits that they're going to have to pay to walk into the AAA. We're talking about like 1,500, 1,500, 1,700, 1,500, $1,500, $1,500, $2,500, $1,500 for like reasonable seats, right? We're not talking octagon side. We're not talking, you know, you're sitting between Joe Rogan and John Anick. Like, I'm talking about up, we call it uptown at the AAA. Just to get to walk in, it's like $1,700. Oh, my God. It's crazy.

But the vibes are going to be, the vibes are going to be crazy. Like, I know for a fact that Miami's going to show out, obviously, you got Game Bread on the card. Like, he's going to draw a crazy amount. of people. Izzy Pareda 2. I was at Izzy Pareda 1 in New York when we weren't able to link up, but that was, we'll get to that, we'll get to that, but like, it's going to be crazy. And I'm, I'm, my wife's upset. I will be in the building. Let's go. I will be in the building. Come on. I would not, I would not miss that. My wife's upset. She wants me to get her in. I couldn't, I wasn't able to pull those strings, the guy that I was talking about, didn't want to

pay four figures. I was me. I didn't want to pay. Sorry, honey. You're going to camp it on the couch. I'm like next one. Next one. Next one. I promise. Next one. Yeah, vibes are great. The fights are going to be great. Like, I'm super excited. In another 20 years when they return to Miami, that's when I'll get you in.

I promise. I mean, the vibes for me, I'm pretty hyped. Like, I'm not going to be in Miami. Wish I was, Fantastic City. Been there a few times. Every time I go, I think I start to love it a little bit more. What I am going to do, we're doing a watch party. There's going to be some Miami Vice themes.

We're going to keep it, you know, the pink, the blue, the white. It's going to be good. Here's what I'm thinking. And a man with, if I'm not mistaken, you got Cuban roots? Yes, Cuban on both sides. 100% Cuban. What I'm thinking is, I think I'm, you know, New York, big food town. I think I'm going to hit a Cuban restaurant for like a late lunch, early dinner beforehand.

Yes, sir. Is there anything that I need to get? What's the dish, the go-to dish? Wow. It depends. Like, do you want sandwiches? Do you want, like, actual food? Wow.

Like, there's a bevy of stuff across the Cuban cuisine that you can get, right? So if you haven't had Cuban food before, it is not high in spice like other Hispanic foods. It's a very savory cuisine. There's a lot of sweet. There's a lot of salty. Man, I'd probably say if you want to eat good and you want an actual plate of food, you have to get what's called bistet and panisalo, which is essentially fried steak. Oh, they take like a slim, super thin palomia steak.

and then they bread it like they would any country fried steak and bring it up you put lime on top you get that with white rice with black beans with with platonito maduro oh delicious so if that's i'll text it to you bit panizau or if you're in the mood for a sandwich you got to get a Cuban or you get what's called a croquetta preparala which is have you had croquetas before yes okay so that's that imagine a Cuban sandwich you've got Swiss cheese you've got ham you've got pork and then what they do is they take the croquettas and then they like smush them inside the sandwich press it down together this body built by croquetta parolara right here so the first thing you said if i went into like a a real authentic Cuban restaurant and I asked for them they're going to be like

yep we got yeah they'll be like all right let's go this guy knows what he's talking about yeah bete et en panizao which literally means breaded steak that's oh I love it I love it you're going to have to text to me I'm going to practice it a million times and then I'm going to walk in and I'm just going to, they're going to look at me, that's all I'm going to say. They're going to be like,

this guy knows what the fuck he's talking about. And you tell them, Moro, and they're going to be like this guy. That means you get Mordos, which is the black beans and rice, and then Maduro's, which is like the fried plantains.

You're locked in, dude. They're going to be like, what part of Cuba are you from? I'm going to be like, yeah, yeah, that's sure that that's what they will when they look at you. That's what they're going to say.

All right, I cannot wait. Just talking about it is getting me even more excited. By the way, before we get, before we hop in, I have to give you your flowers because I don't think there's a better watch party outside of the one that I do, obviously. MMA hang out. Yeah.

I was going to say, shout to the MMA hang out. Yeah. You guys put on such a great watch party. Wow. Because I watched the clips after because obviously I'm in the middle of our show. So like I'm not keeping tabs on everything. But dude, when I see your visuals, when I see like what you guys put on social, you are absolutely killing it.

I appreciate that. The fives, dude, everything is absolutely A1. I sincerely appreciate that, especially coming from you. I've been a part of the MMA hang before. I wish I could have done it more. Now it feels like this is sort of a staple for us at M. M.A. fighting. Jed has been a part of it a few times.

Shout out to Valentina Shepchenko, of course. I mean, we got some stuff playing for this weekend. I will say that. We've got some stuff in store for the Miami show. Well, since I'm not doing the show, if you send me a link, I may be able to pop it up in my phone. I don't know how you guys work that. I mean, I don't know.

I'm available for boots on the ground. If that's, I don't know. Whoa now. Whoa now. Are you going to do some sort of media something? Like, are you going to have a Wi-Fi access? I've got the credentials. I've got the credentials.

I don't know what I'm able to do in there, but, you know, it's our home arena. I can figure out something to do. Just in case if you want to get some boots on the ground. I'm going to keep tabs on that. This is a real thing. I hope that wasn't you were just being polite. No, no, no, no, no. Absolutely not.

Absolutely not. Fantastic. Thank you again for the kind words. Let's get into it, boys. UFC 287. Israel Adasania taking on Alex Pereira, second time in the Octagon, fourth time overall in combat sports. I cannot wait. I don't know what's going to happen. I need you guys to tell me. Jet, I'll start with you because I'm going to start with Tony on the co-main event. Just for me personally, seeing Israel out of Asa-a-sanya as a favorite, as a huge of an Adasania, a huge of an Adesania, fan as I am. I cannot go back to the well on a favorite that just lost the belt. We know the record. It's there. I ignore it every time. They're like three and 12 in immediate rematches. I just lost money on Kamarer Usman at chalk odds going in for the immediate rematch. I can't do it again. Jed,

how are we feeling about this one? Look, we say this all the time. You're taking a smart and reasonable approach and I cannot do it. I'm not going to hate you for it. look, this is, this may be the pick I feel the stupidest about. And that includes the fact that I lost my entire bank called Valencia Shepchenko earlier this year. If this goes one kind of way and I'm sitting here holding a dumb ticket, I will feel like an idiot because I'm back in Israel a Disney this time. I didn't pick him last time. So I feel at least good about that. That is interesting.

You did take Alex last time. Yeah, the odds were a lot better and I felt that it was there. And I understand why he's his is a favorite. And this is textbook. Textbook, gambler's fallacy. He can't just keep losing. Like, he cannot continue to lose to this man. He's still good.

Because they are very clearly evenly matched. Like, yes, I know Pereira has three wins in three fights. But in each of those fights, the first one, arguably is he should have won the decision. The second one is he almost knocked him out and was well. well ahead before he got knocked out. And in this last one, the same thing. Put him on skates at the end of that first round. Couldn't close the show.

Ran out of time because it happened all very, very quickly, was kind of cruising to a win and then the last charge of Pereira. And I cannot believe that these two dudes would fight four times that every single one of them would go Pereira's way. It just doesn't track to me. And so what I said last time, the reason I picked Pereira, then it still stands. I think that he is favored to win this fight in general

because why I thought he should win or could win last time, I guess, the better way to say this, is Izzy is just way too cautious now. Like he is unwilling to throw himself into the fire. He, for fear of getting knocked out, and what that ultimately ends up doing is it means he has to spend 25 minutes being perfect. And it's so hard to do that.

The margins are so small. We saw that. And particularly when in the fifth round, that becomes an escalating path of danger, too, is the other part of it. Because when Pereira knows he's behind like he did in the fifth round, his coach has told him, you got to knock this dude out. And he is not Jared Cannonier. He's not going to sit there and take a moral victory of making it to the final bell.

Or I'm just going to trust the process. and eventually I'll end it. He is going to make something happen round over, round over round. I simply don't think he should fight him that way. And I have to believe, even though I said this last time and I was freaking wrong, I have to believe that Israel Dissan, who is much smarter and better at fighting than I am, and that his coaches and city kickboxing, who are some of the smartest, best coaches at fighting in this whole sport, can see what everyone else can see.

and they will tell him you cannot give ground this time. By hook or by you just got to stand toe to toe and chuck them. And if you go out on your shield, okay, I refuse to believe that he's coming into this fight with all these stakes and all this pressure. Because if he loses, it's it's it's lost four. We are cooked at this point. It's never happening again. I refuse to think that he is going to try and Toriador his way through this. This time, I think he comes to, to, to,

to settle up. And if he does that, I think he's got a real good chance. And so, because I'm an idiot and I refuse to learn lessons, I'm going to pick Israel Dyssinia and I'm going to bet him at minus 135. I love it. I love it. I mean, that whole speech just got me pumped up because I feel this, I feel the same way. I like, as good as he is, as much success as he has had over his combat sports career, he's 23 and 2 in MMA. Like he is unbelievable. I refuse to believe what you just said back against the wall this is it you lose this one it's done bro it's put the bed that guy has your number and he will always anytime you're mentioned in the conversations of the greats it'll always be yeah but Alex Pereira he was four and oh against you'll never get to fight him

again no no they're never letting you fight him again at four and oh it's just like dude beat you twice in kickboxing beat you twice in mMA it's done how how many times do you have to keep doing this And the thing is, Pereira, if you watch countdown this week, he is under the belief that he is just that guy to Israel, Adasania. He says in kickboxing, there was a guy that he just could not beat, and he believes that if he fought him again today, he wouldn't beat him again. And he is that to Israel Adasania. He just has his number. Adasania is here to disprove that. I think that he is going to have to be aggressive. He cannot get his backup against the cage again. That's where Pereira just thrives. That's where he tees off. That's where you're in his world. He has to

push this fight. He has to pressure Pereira. He has to bring the fight to him. And because I think that I went with the under four and a half, I did it last fight. Oh, so am I. Barely cashed last fight. Barely cash last fight. As I was accepting that

Adasania just lost his belt in the craziest fashion ever. I was just like, what was this time on that again, guys? Like, was it the other four and a half? Can someone check the clock on that for me? Like, I was like, freaking out. I think we get it again. I think Israel Adesania is fully capable of finishing Alex Pereira. Everyone's going to point to it.

End around one. Yes, he had him hurt. He had him wobbled. He had him in advantageous positions on the ground where it looked like he may be able to get a finish if he didn't run out of time there as well. And then obviously the argument does not need to be made. Nothing needs to be stated.

Alex Pereira is alive for a K-O for 25 minutes. I love that bet because I'm with you on it. I think we're getting a quicker finish. I consider taking an alt-line under, too, of something a little earlier. I just, I think this time Izzy has to make a fight of it for real. And if that happens, one dude is going to sleep. They are not going to be getting after it in the middle and make it, you know,

longer than 15 minutes. I would seriously doubt that. I think, I think one thing. And if we can see Izzy protect his legs, right? I know Beto was absolutely chopping that front leg. And it didn't look like it. But that's, that bothered Izzy big time. Like he wasn't able to be himself with that leg so compromised.

So like we know that Izzy had him within five seconds of that first round. If it goes five seconds longer, he's asleep. And obviously the rest of the story is history. But maybe Padeta is just that guy, right? Like he is a terrifying person. Obviously I know Connor, you've seen him in person and like stood next to him. Like when I saw him because I was at the, what was it, 281 in New York, right? When him and Izzy fought.

So we were up. there for the card. We were there for everything, right? So we were at the ceremonial wayans. And I remember we were probably 10 rows back from the stage. Izzy comes out, all of a sudden, Beneda comes out in the headdress with the face pain. It's like, this dude is not human. This guy is from another planet. I don't know where they got this guy from. I don't know why it took him so long to come to the UFC. But like, he is terrifying. And maybe he's just that boogeyman. Right. Like, we just saw it with Camaro and Leon. Like, he was, Leon was in his head. And he was, he was, And there was nothing that Kamara could do.

He looked a totally different fighter to me this past fight, right? Maybe we see Izzy trying to make some adjustments, but just mentally not being able to take the next step and have the hurdle of, okay, I can beat this guy. Like, does that first round loom large? Does he remember the fact that, oh, I had this guy on the ropes. I had him on skates. Five seconds longer he's caoed. Like maybe. But as of right now, and I'm a huge Izzy fan, I think we all are, right?

My wife's favorite fighter is he. Like she gets legitimately nervous and wants to like throw up every time that his fights comes on because she doesn't want him to lose. And we've gotten to a point where like he didn't lose. But now it's bad ada. Now it's personal. Now he says it's all online. If it's not now, it's never. And it's like, well, like you're going to have to do it against the baddest motherfucker on the planet at middleweight.

Like can you do that? Do you still have that gauge to like step up to that level and beat a guy who has beaten you three times? I don't know. Like for me, I think, and as much as I hate to say it, I'm going to take the plus money. I'm going to take Pareta. I just don't have the confidence in Izzy right now. He's going to have to prove me wrong. I can't blame money and a guy who's won three in a row against the two.

He's the champion, by the way. I can't blame. I cannot blame anyone for either side. If your brain just goes to, he's not going to go home four. He's too good of a mixed martial artist. Or I'm getting plus money on the guy that's three and no against this. Like he's in his head and he's just that guy. I really can't blame either side.

I'm just on the under. I think we get a banger. I think it's a classic and I think someone does go out. And we either are looking at the trilogy in the Octagon or, I mean, the end of this for Israel out of Sonia. Does he just like, that's it? Like there's nothing else to say? Like he'll never get back to that middleweight belt. Like if Beneta has it, it's over?

I think he could get back to. to the belt by Pereira moving up to 205 and is he taking it over. Which would be huge, by the way. Gosh, in terms of legacy, man, I mean, this as incredible as Israel Adasanya was, all the way up until that yon fight, untouchable, this dude was unbelievable. And he was a huge favorite to become a double champ. If he loses this one, I mean, the legacy definitely takes that hit. And he's just done if he loses this one. I think he's kind of done either way. this is his last realistic shot to win the belt in my mind. So if he doesn't win the belt here,

he can get to another title shot, particularly if Pereira loses to Hamza Tcha Myev or Robert Whitaker, both fights that are very loseable fights for him. But I don't, Izzy's going to have to string together wins historically once a long-reigning dominant champion starts to lose, that begets more losing, and they just kind of fall off.

the game catches up, people adjust. There are a bunch of new young hitters coming, and if it's not Pereira, I really like Hamzot's chances against Dizzy. Yeah. So, like, it's, he needs to get this one or else he is, I mean, he's objectively not going to get a title fight as long as Pereira's there, and he's probably just then going to be in fun fight territory. Maybe he tries to move up to 205 if he loses, actually bulk up to make the transition this

time instead of just going natural, you know, put on a little weight. But Pereira is huge and has fought a 205. And there's always the opportunity that Izzy bumps up and then Pereira says, you know what? I'm going to do it too. And at which point Izzy's then just still screwed any which way he cuts it. So this is, this is it. This is all or nothing for Izzy right here. Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget Online Casino is live, bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple.

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It's must watch television. cannot wait to see how it unfolds. Let's get to the co-main event, another one that I'm very excited for. Jorge Gamebred Mazvedal taking on Gilbert Burns. Right now, Gilbert Burns, sitting at a minus 450 Jorge Mosvidal coming back at plus 360. This is why we bring you here, Tony. This is why we bring you here. I'm tasking you with this.

Boots on the ground in 305 to tell me why. Gamebred gets his hand raised. man um it's it's it's so tough man because i love george right like he embodies what this the real part of this city is right like it's not south beach it's not spring break it's not clubs it's not that stuff it's like it's like the people in westchester that are blue collar people that work three jobs for a living that try to put food on people's tables is the people in Cutler Ridge, the people down south. It's like the people out in West Kendall, like, the immigrants that come here looking for a better life, like that's what George is.

Right. Like, that's what Miami is. The real Miami is that. Right. So when you, when you put up somebody like George and a journeyman fighter by every stretch of the word until that moment with Ben, until, you know, the flying knee, and now he's a powder keg and it's exploded and now he's one of the biggest fighters on the planet. But like when you put somebody with that, with those roots, with that like just that community behind him, it's tough to go against him. Right. And like, it sucks that it had to be Gill because he's just such a powerhouse, right? Like, he's somebody that when you lock that cage, it's like, oh, shit. Like, this is going to be a tough one. Right? Because the fight between him and Hamzaat was like, Hall of Fame level fight. Like, that,

That was an absolute banger. I think this one's going to be a big time banger too. And it had to be for Miami, right? Like they had to put Izzy Pereira too. They had to put Gil and they had to put Monsoro. Like, they need bangers. And I think this one's going to be a banger. I know George has been doing a lot of soul searching, a lot of trying to get his mind right.

I know that he's recently left his management, the FRM team. He's now kind of on his own, doing his own stuff, like trying to, trying to almost recreate why he fell in love with the sport. And his training, his cardio, his team is getting smaller. It's getting more precise. Why is George going to get his hand raised? I think that George is ready to fight a fight against Gilbert Burns. He's mentally there, right?

I think something happened after that Kamara loss, that knockout that everybody saw all the sweat flying down. George is in another dimension. like when that happens and obviously we just saw with kamarro recently when that knockout happens you rethink everything right like no fighter goes back in like oh no i'm good like let's just re-rack it like i'm good to go like there are there it's seeing ghosts right like well who is it i think it was sam darnal with the jets he's like yeah i'm seeing ghosts out there like i'm just throwing the ball i don't know to who but there's just somebody there and they're picking it off i don't know like that back

of your mind thought process of like damn am i is there is there going to be a feign right that I don't see coming. Is there going to be a leg that I don't see coming? Like I think George has worked through that. I think he's in a space where mentally he's good, physically he's good. I know his hand is doing a lot better. It's going to take a KO, just flat out. And I don't know if that's going to be able to happen.

Right? Like, Gil is a fucking ox. Like the dude is built different. He's a bear. He's a bull. Whatever animal attribute you want to give to him. Like he's just built different. If George can catch him, he can.

he can win. If it goes to decision, I mean, I'm not too big on George winning by decision. Like, it's got to be a K.O. To answer your question. Like, George gets his hand raised if it's a K.O.

All right. So here's what I did. It's in Miami. I couldn't stay away from George Mazurl here. I will pay the price of admission, it being 0.8 units this week. That's my price of admission. To just live a little.

as Jet always says, just to live a little, just to experience, just to feel alive of game bread being there. Now you're speaking my language. What I did, what I did. I am actively making Connor Burke's the worst gambler and I love it. I did half unit George plus 380, 0.3 units, George by K.O. plus 700. If he knocks Gilbert Burns out, fan for life right here, you will see me, I'll get the 305 tattered on my chest. Like I will go absolutely eight. Just to feel alive in that moment, I'm willing to pay the price for emission. I would rather feel alive paying this 0.8 than pay five units to win one on Doreno. At the end of the day, if it's a 110, 110 fight minus 110 each way, yeah, I'm probably backing

up the brinks on Gilbert Doreno. Like this feels like a fight that he's likely going to win, especially if he goes to the ground. If it stays standing, man, I think George can hang. I'm surprised. I thought the energy, because I saw that you had a bet on, on, on Jorge Masvidal, Connor and obviously with Tony. Come on, baby. I thought there would be a lot more positive energy.

This is a very reluctant appeal. Like, well, I hope George can survive. He's a plus 400 for her. He's exactly. He's 38 years old. That's, that's my point is he shouldn't be a plus 400. I'm not saying he's going to win this fight. That's what I needed to hear.

What should he be lined as? Plus 180 plus 200? 200. 250. Like that feels correct. And I'm not even factoring in the Miami part of this. Be real before you get on this. How crazy is this crowd going to go for it, Tony?

Like this is like a real hometown guy that like people are going to be going bananas for? I can't describe what it's going to be the moment he walks out. Like the place is going to. going to go insane. I didn't want people to be like, yeah, like stand up. No, no, no, no, no. Like, I wanted to be like, there he is. That's our fucking God. Dude, the roof is going to blow off the place. That's what I need. That's what I need. I feel so much better. I feel so much better now that. Like, there's going to be people that that are there just to see George, obviously, right? Yes. There has been such a growth of the sport down here, right? That is, you can directly tie to

George, right? Even going back before the knockout of Ben Ascrum, before all of this stuff, when he was fighting in Parine on Kimbo Slices' YouTube page, okay, when you had a grainy video of him in big-ass jean shorts knocking dudes out at 19 years old. Like, there's been people that have been following George since then. We're talking about 2003, 2002, 2001, that now come full circle, see him as one of the biggest draws in the sport that he's basically like resuscitated down here. I don't even know if it resuscitated the right word because like it was dead. There was nothing. Right. Like he's been the first person and be like, all right, everybody, let's go. Like, this is it. Like, we're part of this now.

Incredible. Incredible. Now, Jed, now you tell me why he should be a smaller underdog and why he's going to win. I mean, this isn't like that bad of a fight for him. Again, I don't think it's a great fight. Like, I would pick, if we're just going head-to-head picking, I'm going to pick over burns to win the fight he's i think he's certainly faster uh with his with his striking i don't know that he is better but he packs a punch and he's got much quicker hands and he's obviously a world champion jiu jitsu player but he's not a great offensive wrestler he is a competent offensive wrestler but and people i think people have a bad conception of what hori moscow is as a as a defensive fighter and a defensive wrestler he is excellent at both now some

some little person listen to this is immediately losing their mind like Kobe Covington took a town a million times do you know how many times Colby Covington shot um also a million he got six takedowns on 15 attempts and this is Colby Covington constant forward pressure relentless takedowns that is now what Gilbert Burns does has never shown he can't keep that up for 15 minutes even if he can do it for the first five and as good as Burns is on the ground he will win if this fight is on the ground, it is a stretch for me to think that he is going to like pretzel up Jorge.

Like Jorge is a very, very solid defensive grappler, super durable on the feet. Yeah, they can get caught. They're going to be competing in every phase of this game is kind of where I stand. And I think Burns has, Burns is a little bit more athletic and has some natural advantages coming in here.

But Maserol is, I'm trying to think of the right way to phrase this. Mosvadole adjusts very well and knows how to kind of work around what he's seeing early on in a fight. He is going to come in here. He's going to be juiced to the moon from the crowd.

Just amped beyond all belief and I think they're going to get after it. I doubt Burns scores that many takedowns and if we're talking about just a straight striking match, Horace Mospadol can lose that one. He's not going to, lose that at a 80% clip to Gilbert Burns because that's what the odds are. The odds are saying this fight is 80% Gilbert Burns and that's insane.

I have written down in my note. I said, I'm not saying that Jorge Mazvedo is definitively going to win this fight. I'm saying there's a greater than 20% chance. Yeah, exactly. Like he's at like 80% that Burns is going to win is nuts. To back you up on this, it feels like it's almost a step down in terms of the wrestling going from his last three matchups being coldly covetedina, Camaro was gone twice. Like massive step down in the wrestling. Obviously, the BJJ, if he does get in in bad positions, that's a whole other thing. But I will say, 27 fights across UFC and Strike Force, guys never been subbed.

Like, he's been taken down numerous times, never been subbed. The last time he subbed had to have been Toby Amata, which is the most insane submission of all time in some regards. I love it. Or reverse triangle and bellator literally a decade ago. So tell me, Jay. are you on George? Yeah, I'm on Horri Moswell plus 380.

380 is just an enormous number that it doesn't deserve to be this way. I'm not kidding. He's been working on his wrestling too big time. Like that's another thing. I think he's learned from those three fights. Obviously with Colby Camaro, like legitimate, the best, you know, the best wrestlers almost in the UFC. It's like, how do I get better?

I need to get out of positions that make me very easily submittable, right? And how do you do that? You get your wrestling up. and he's been working on his wrestling a ton too. Like, I'm telling you, George is the way he's talking right now is that he's in a different mental space. He's cleared from that, the bad energy of the knockout. He's working on his body, he's working on his wrestling.

Like, I think he's going to be legitimately a top-tier fighter when we see him next. Just not only the juice factor from the crowd, but just all the work that he's been doing on himself. Like, I think we're going to see a really, really, really stand up George Mosvado right now. Oh, I need it. I don't even think he needs to work on his take down. offense, honestly. That's been the most overblown part of this whole fight to me.

He gives, like, when he's fighting Kobe Covington and Kamar Usman, the two best wrestlers in division, he only gave up, takedown to like a 33% rate. Gilbert Burns ain't doing that. Like, it's just not, this is a striking match for the vast majority of it. And again, Burns really quick, got good power in his hands. He's a little rote, those very similar combinations over and over again. He can get countered. Jorge is going to have a pretty, not a huge, a discernible reach advantage and is a good technician. Like this is a much closer fight than the odds are. I don't, to go back to what you said earlier, Tony,

I don't think he needs a knockout. I think a knockout would help, and I think that can totally happen, particularly because I suspect Jorge might be throwing heat to start based on that crowd being around him. But I think he can also just kind of outpoint Gilbert Burns over 15 minutes. So, yeah, I'm all the way on Jorge, on Jorge, plus, 380 and because I also

kind of tagging in around this I don't think a knockout's particularly likely by either dude both guys are really durable that's for sure both got finished by Kamala Usman so that makes it a little you have some concerns there but I mean that's the only time Mosbyal's

been finished since Toby Amata I believe Burns has only been finished twice in his entire career was the it was Usman and then Dan Hooker back at Lightweight when he's cutting a lot like I mean we just saw Burns go hammer and tong with Hamzaa Chimae for 15. I might rewatch that fight today, by the way.

Just to get back in the mood. Please do. It's an unbelievable fight. Like, it's, it was one of the best fights to evolve last year. I took the K.O. simply because of the number plus 700. I mean,

that's a big number. And, I mean, his last five wins are by knockout. Like, we've seen Gilbert Burns chin get check before. It doesn't happen often. But, like, if he wins that way,

I need to have a little bit of action on it. So, like, I mean, I like it. I'm taking a splash on the over. or two and a half because it's plus money. It, like, it, it makes, it makes me this much more excited for this fight having a bet like that on it. I mean, the way this year's been going, I'm going to lose anyway.

I might as well only lose a little. Like, if I had Gilbert Burns, I'd just be sitting here sweating. Like, might as well just like enjoy the ride on Horace and Mossville. And it's like betting, it's like betting the unders in football or basketball or something. You're sweating for something to not happen. It's like, come on. What are we doing here? Let's, come on.

That's what it's going to be like. Feeling alive, Tony. And that's, that's the entire premise of heavyweight. overs. Well, yes, you're banking on something not happening.

That's specific, yeah. Tension. That's the, that is, if you're parlaying up Gilbert Burns this weekend, that is what you're hoping.

That just like nothing happens. He gets to take down and you just beat some pillar of post. All right, let's keep it rolling then. Maine and Co. Cain cannot wait for. I'm looking at the poster right now.

I love that they went with like a Miami film poster. Like it wasn't just like, it doesn't look like, like some sort of like NFT. And they're just like, here it is. Like the Australia poster was just like neon yellow. Like,

it's like, this is amazing. Doesn't the vertical throw you off? It throws me off because it makes me think that Alex Perthas fighting Gilbert Burns. Okay. I actually have a comment on that. I was thinking about that this week. Because they split the color halfway down, it makes me feel better about it.

Like the fact that, you know, Gilbert and Jorge are one color. Carrera and Adasanya are the same color. See, no, but that's why they should be different colors because they're clashing. They are the competing sides of the red and the bulls. blue in the octagon. Like I, looking that poster makes me think Pereira's fighting Gilbert.

I've never understood the stack thing. Yeah. Like I, like, when Jorge announced Gamebred boxing this past weekend on the MMA hour

a few months ago, I had to make like a makeshift poster for it. And I did like the side by side things. And people were like, oh, like this makes it look like X, XYZ's fighting X, X, Y,

Z. I'm like, I'm putting them right next to each. Like, simply. You know what the fight is, dude. Come on.

Yeah. Come on. It says it in the text. Like, please. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, another fight that has the potential to just be a banger.

Rob Font taking on Adrian Yanez. Right now, you can get a Yanez for minus 180. Rob Fon coming back at plus 155. I think this one is going to be great. I think it's going to be fireworks. I think if anyone's going to get knocked out, it's going to be Rob Fon, but I don't know, dude. I know he's been knocked down in his last few fights, but he's got a chin. Dude, you've got to put him fully out.

Never been knocked out. Adrian Yanez. And fought some hitters. Important to note that about the never been knocked out. It's not like he's been fighting a bunch of pillow fested dudes. He's, you know, we're talking Marlon Vera, Josialdo. Chauda. Our brand hits, obviously, like, it's, it's some boys in there.

Yeah. And then, I mean, Yanaz has a chin on him as well. I'm taking a dog again. I'm going Rob Font. I took him at plus 160. You know, we've seen Janez against much, much lower level of competition. I'm talking Randy Costa. Start pretty slow.

Davey Grant took him a while to get out of the gates, one of very close contested split decision. Who does not start slow? Rob Font. He is going to weaponize his volume. Now, we've seen it cost him lately because he's gotten dropped against the likes of Aldo and Cheeto. He was winning each of those rounds till he wasn't. But I mean, dude, Rob Fon coming out and putting up 150 strikes, 175 strikes is not completely out of the question. Both these dudes are tough, in my opinion. It goes to a decision. There's Rob Font sitting up 163 to 111 on strikes, wins 29, 28. I mean, this, this is a step up for Adrian Yanez. Rob Fon is a veteran of this game, man. Like, I still think he's a top 10 band-em weight. And we're getting him at plus 160. I took the shot on the dog here, man.

Interesting. So this gets to something I really, I didn't recognize about the card until I started diving into it. A lot of live underdogs this. Oh, man. speaking my language and like could you could make a case for almost every one of them you could very much find yourself betting exclusive plus money this and because we're saying it's going to be like 11 chock city it's going to be 11 on Saturday and they're going to be like we're 11 fights in here in Miami and we've yet to see an underdog win can horhe maas but all do it's going to be chalk all the watch party is going to be sick yes oh yeah yeah it's going to be awesome watching me lose all my money okay

the one time Connor doesn't go for the chalkies in the world is the one time you should cash them. I'm not a complete just chalk eating donkey square loser. I'm like, this is the week we go dogs. It's going to be all chalk. I cannot wait for it. I love it. And on that note, I am not taking the dog on this one.

This is one of the ones that, look, we talk about it occasionally on this. You got some people, you got boys. Adrian Yanez He's one of my boys Okay, I respect that One of my boys Rob Font People who listen to MMAFighting.com

Will know that Rob Font previously was a boy I previously maybe Have made some statements like Rob Font might be the best Band of Way in the world That was a little bit premature I'm a hand up

I got a little over my skis there And his last two performances have been a bit tough to watch Because he's getting a little chinier Super durable incredibly durable hadn't been finished once in his career and worked through fighting those hitters. But the difference in the Cheeto Vera fight was largely that he just kept getting hurt. And same with Josealdo.

He kept getting eating shots that put him in a bad place. Adrian Yanez is my boy. He has, as you noted, like, is a big step up for him, like going to be his pretty clearly his biggest step up. But he has looked so good. He has impressed me so much. I think he is ascending and you always want to be on the on the ascension you don't want to be on on the potential downslope which is really what it looks like where Rob Font is I think we're going to get some great boxing but I think the speed of Adrian Yanez the fact that he can keep pace with with Rob Font I know he starts slow but his volume builds and builds and really one of Rob Font's best weapons is just that he outpaces opponents and I think Yanez is going to be able to quickly catch him and get after him there uh fight's going to be sick. I'm taking Adrian Yanez by decision though, because again, brought up on really durable. And it's just the decision line is off. It's plus 240 for Adrian Yannas by decision, which is kind of

insane when you can sit like, look at this fight and say Adrian Yannas is a minus 180 favorite. The over is two and a half rounds at minus 125. Like both of those are expected to happen. The most likely outcome per Vegas is that Adrian Yannas wins this fight after the 12th. minute mark and yet decision is plus 240 that just feels off i like the shot taking the shot i actually really like that that that number plus 240 for a decision is like i was i was like okay i'm i'm thinking rob font plain and simple volume i think he's going to be able to outstrike them you know have the durability to to go through the entire fight not get you know taken down caoed but plus 240 i'm like ah I don't know.

Must be switching sides of the decision. I like much better. I mean, you're getting plus 130. I wouldn't take Adrianianianez at minus 180. That price is not. This is a doggar pass of your straight betting for sure. Yeah, I just have the straight bet.

I wanted to add some font by decision. I was hoping we were going to get something crazy, like a plus 400 or something. It doesn't look like we're going to get that. It looks similar to the honors by decision. I mean, it very well could end up like that Davy Grant fight. It could be incredibly close.

goes to decision. Someone wins a splitting. Wouldn't be surprised at all. What are the splitting hods? I didn't even look at them. Split, split, split. Win by decision or majority or splitty. Plus 1,000 for Yanez by majority or splitty.

Plus 1,100 for font by majority or split. I just feel like that's like anytime I try and do that, that never works out for me. Like sub-prop bets? Yes, exactly. Like sub-propetts. Fight to be one. by split a majority is plus 550.

That's not enough. That's not enough juice there for me. All right. So we're disagreeing, but kind of an agreement there. I got fun. Y'all got Yanez by decision. Just on the number, though. I think we make that very clear, right?

Just on the number. I think that's going to be a great one. I mean, this whole main card, dude, is honestly, the last six fights are like really must, must see for me. So let's keep it rolling. Kevin Holland, taking on Santiago, Ponziabio, right now you can get holland pretty big favorite coming in minus 240 and uh santiago panzanivio coming back at plus 200 um up to 205 yeah 205 here i like kevin hollandere um but like the hand

injury just a few months ago when he fought wonder boy the decision making especially when you are betting on him can be wildly frustrating at times. I experienced that against Wonderboy. Ponsinibio's like a, like, he's, he's a game opponent. I'm a little bit surprised that the line is this big. I've been, I've been really considering, I know Ponsonibio's tough. What are you thinking, Jed? You're nodding. He's trying to get you. Follow that line out. Follow that line of thought out. I have nothing on this fight right now. I'm surprised that the line is this big. Ponsonibio's very game. Kevin. Holland historically known to shit the bed.

I see people on terrible decisions. Kevin Holland. That is, you should never, I wouldn't trust Kevin Holland with a lot of money. I wouldn't trust him with a little money because I've watched the man fight and I have chosen to believe in his, his chances. I'm operating on a new theory here. One, I just show clear. I'm taking a bet on Ponton's Nibu at plus 205 because all of the stuff that you outlined.

I'd also like to follow it up with this theory. I think that Kevin Holland might not be good. He's not bad, but I think Kevin Holland might be one of those fighters who we feel differently about, we think higher of, because he had some big wins and big moments that in hindsight in retrospect, a lot less good than they probably should, like, than we thought at the time and that we're carrying in our head. And we just elevate him because he's interesting. And he says these fun things and he fights crime in his spare time. And so we all, we think better of him for it. What if you look at it, like, I mean, he got tuned up by Stephen Thompson and Hamzaa Chamae. Those were not.

The Hamzaa fight needs to be thrown out, by the way. We cannot talk about him and Hamzot. Like, that fight didn't even happen to me. I mean, it sure happened and he sure got rolled up. That was a fantastic part for me. I was only only two and a half at like minus 110. Yeah, it was the easiest bet of my fucking life. It's like, it comes out fighting who?

Okay. They opened it like, two and a half, like minus 110. And I like almost like had a heart palpitation trying to put everything in my account on it. That's great bet. But like before that, I mean, just look at the resume, right? Like we think of him as a very good, like elite fighter, but his wins at welterweight. Tim Means and Alex Oliva. These aren't bad wins, but they are not, they're not anything to really hang your hat on, particularly Alex Olivaire at this stage.

All of the best fighters he's faced have done him. Like, Stephen Thompson wasn't close. Hamza Chamaev wasn't close. Marvin Vittori wasn't close. Derek Brunson, wasn't close. Like the good guys he's faced, the only exclusion to that is Honolado Jacar I Sozo, who was old. And we weren't like all the way sure he was washed, but it turned out, yeah, he was pretty washed at that point. And so like, that's his best win, his best performance.

And you can't take that away, but you can frame that with context and be like, what if he's just like solid? What if he's just a solid fighter? And he's not a great one. And in the comp, like on the other side of it, Santiago Ponzanibio is a good fighter. Like he at one point in time, we had really high projections for him, has fallen short there. but outside of the Li Jing Liang like loss, which he got, he got roasted. Coming back, super long layoff comes in, gets roasted. I mean, he's Miguel Baezza and Alex Marono are comparable wins to Tim Means and Alex Olivaura.

And he has split decision losses to Jeff Neal and Michelle Paheta. And those were very competitive fights that he was in. Like he beat Neil Magny, which is a much better win than Kevin Holland has on his resume. Like that's he Gunner Nelson Still a better win Like I know that was a long time ago But it's Ponsonibio has a better resume

He is very game Kevin Holland Does it fight smart all the time And even even looking at statistically Like Ponziabio is going to work a little bit harder I think Ponziabio can score takedowns If he wants to

We've seen Kevin Holland not very good in that realm So at plus 205 I'm just taking the shot on Ponzi scheme Does the being down two rounds didn't on going into the third against a short notice Alex Marona the last time I'll concern you at all no because he won the fight I look at W's Connor I look at a look at the scoreboard and that scoreboard says Kio I will say I know he ended up getting finished I think that's where a lot of this line is from honestly is that I think Kevin Holland is like incredibly durable so

let me throw something out there to you just floating it on by Ponziabio by decision plus 600. I don't hate that. That's a big difference. Don't hate that at all. I like you. You're adding. Yeah, I mean,

Ponziabio is, I mean, he obviously is a finisher, but Kevin Holland's pretty durable and he's not an otherworldly finisher like Hamzaa Jameh or whatever. So don't hate that. I think I might,

I think I might throw a shekel on that, a little quarter unit on a, on a little Ponziabio by decision. I don't hate that. My broader point on this fight is largely, you should just not be betting Kevin Holland at this price. That's what I like.

Because that's just not a good... I see she's not a good thought. I see people unloading the clip on it. All right, let's keep it rolling. The final fight on the main card. Then we'll let our man Tony free. Raul Roses. He's got to hang for one more.

He's got to hang for the Gaston Curr. Yeah, yeah. That's fair. That's fair. 18 years old, Raul Roses, getting in there on another pay-per-view card this time on the main card taking on Christian Rodriguez, the Anthony Pettus product. Right now, you can get Raul Roses for minus 225 Rodriguez going back at plus 190. How are we feeling about this one, Tony? We trust in the

18-year-old to get it done at big favorite odds. He's so dynamic too, right? Like, he's such a good fighter and like when he was in the in contendenters series it's like you want somebody that young to be that good now my worry is biggest stage in the sport at this moment for this month uh on on a card that's going to have mazvaraa too like is he ready for that kind of light right like that part worries me being 18 like i just obviously everybody's different but i just think back to when I was 18. And like I played high school and a little bit of college sports and it's like there's some lights that are really bright, right.

And when you walk into the AAA, the MDA, the Kassaya Center or whatever the hell it's called now and you see oh damn like this is this is real like what kind of guy will you be? I want to say I have 230 here on draft Kings. 230 feels a little high like I haven't dug in on what the other prop bets are. I would take him money line just because I think he's a better fighter than Christian Rodriguez.

I just really want the hype to be real. The UFC needs somebody that young to be just getting W after W after W and growing the sport. That's what it feels like to me just from a very macro perspective. Like the UFC needs this. What do you think of this, Jed?

You know, you really summed it up for me in a way that I didn't even realize when you were introducing it, Connor, and it was, are you trusting the 18-year-old? No, he's 18. I wouldn't trust an 18-year-old to drive my car. Why am I betting money on him at minus 225 odds? He might win this.

Look, Christian Rodriguez can grapple, which is really all Barra Rosas Jr. has can do. So this fight could get interesting. I expect Roses is going to win. The UFC clearly is building him for something. They're not idiots. They know how to matchmake. They are giving him wins or fights that he should win can maybe work out,

advance himself, test out different parts of his game against an escalating level of opposition. He's probably going to win this fight. He's 18 years old. Like, he might wake up and just have like a bad acne day and it jacks his hormones to shit and he can't fight. There is no clue what the hell in 18 is going to do getting into organized fist fights. It's like any world is possible here. I generally am on the belief that you should fade him,

but you're not even getting a good price to fade him at this point. Like this isn't some plus 600 thing. So this is just a straight up pass for me. I'll watch it and I'll assume Robert Roses Jr. wins, but I would never trust an 18-year-old unless I have a lot more reason to than this. Yeah, I'm staying away from it. I think he probably wins. Like if this was like a minus 130, you'd probably catch me playing him.

I saw at one book he opened minus 125. Like if it was in that realm, you could probably start talking me into like, yeah, I believe in this kid. Yeah, minus 25. I just don't really want any part of this. I'm looking forward to it because if he does keep winning like you said, Tony, it could really mean something serious, especially with him being a Mexican fighter. We know how much the Mexican community.

Mexico's taking over, man. Dude, dude. Mexico's taken over. Do you guys see, do you guys see Rosas as part of like the lineage that? that the USC's trying to prop up a la like O'Malley, Patty, those kind of guys, they're kind of feeding them a little bit more of, hmm, what's the word? Like I think you said it, Jed, like winnable fights where it's easy for them

to just keep going up the ranks and keep getting more, more notoriety. Do you think he's part of that lineage or it's like, all right, we're just going to kind of usher him in and hope that he continues to beat these guys that we're putting in front of him. To be honest to me, man, like if you're 18 fighting the UFC, see, I feel like it's tough to just, like, feed you winnable fights. I think Christian Rodriguez is on a similar level as him. Like, he's an Anthony Pettis product.

Like, he speaks very highly of him. He's had some fights under his belt. Obviously, the Jonathan Pierce fight, that was just, like, a fish out of water type thing. Like, it's just too much too soon. And then maybe that prepared him well for this Raul fight. I don't think they're feeding this guy cans yet. I think he's too young at this point to even, like, assume that. I think every win that he can take, every step.

he can take is just huge for him as a fighter. I don't think they should feed him. I mean, I actually think they should feed him cans. I don't think that's what this fight is. His next five fights should just be against other contender series signies. Like just people who maybe can scrap a little bit, but who aren't pedigree, there isn't, there isn't a clear like, oh, this guy can win. He's 18.

He has to develop. Like, I don't care when he says, I'm going to be the youngest chance. and ever. That's nonsense. It's almost objectively not true and certainly incredibly unlikely. That's that's not how you develop and get better as a, like you just, he just needs hours, needs ring time, needs to work against real opposition. Frankly, they, they don't do this enough, but they should treat him as if he is just on a developmental deal and fighting other dudes that he, same opposition he'd face in a regional circuit just happens to be on a UFC paper or the prelims of an undercard.

I think we're probably are likely to get that unless he just is undeniably dominant every time out, then eventually they'll just load him up, move forward with it, and then, you know, we'll keep going. But I don't think it's this is how they market. This is how they promote in general. Sometimes they will give you a quick boost up and see if you can hang a la John Jones. And if you can, then you're just at the top. And if you're not, then they reevaluate and move back. Are you surprised at his main card?

no uh well maybe a little bit i wouldn't have thought in his second fight he'd be the main card on a sizable paper view that we're getting here but uh i i would have just imagined that it would have been another fight night main card and then maybe the next one's paper view like this feels big right like i like it feels like the lights are huge for him in this spot like it feels like like you said if he should be on the card in like san antonio where it's like okay i get it right but when you're here it's miami it's mottes It's Izzy Perida. It's like a big deal.

And then you've got Raul Roses. You're like, all right, we hope kind of he's, he's one of the next guys in line. It just feels weird sticking him on the main card. I don't know. I agree. I think there's also the potential that they're doing it because eventually, and by eventually, I mean, there's a time limit to 18-year-old works because he will become 19 and then he'll become 20 and they'll sign another guy who's younger than him.

So they may need to at least not push him promotionally up the rankings ladder, but at least push him promotionally in terms of high value spots on cards because they have a very limited window where he's the youngest fighter in the UFC and Joe Rogan can flip out about that, right? And so this is this is what they're getting. And I think it's going to work for him. Like if he gets to win in this spot, it's just going to continue to elevate him and hopefully he can carry the ball and run with it.

All right. So that's what finishes off the main card. And the next fight, one fighter is upset with Raul Roses being on the main card. It's Chris Curtis. He's taking on Kelvin Gaslam. The return of Gaslam after almost two years away from the octagon. He comes back in a very closely lined fight. Right now you can get Chris Curtis for plus 105. Gasolm coming back at minus 125. What are we thinking on this one, Ted? So I wanted Tony to stay here because this is important. Tony, you were, you know, we mentioned it, one of the first guys to find out about Flyway Dodgers, the doctrine of them. Which I'm very grateful, by the way. I'm working on a new thing, Tony. And I wanted you to be here so you can also be a ground floor investor in the chat GPT bet. Oh, we're back.

So I debuted this last week. Go deep in detail on how. I love this already. One, AI is taking over. We're all, it's important. Hold on, hold on, hold on. We need to hold on a second. So what I just need the rundown of what this actually means.

So you went to chat GPT, who eventually will take over the world at some point, right? And you asked it what? So you can't, it's an interesting thing because you cannot ask chat GPT, like, who is going to win a fight. it will just kick back a response that says, I'm not a predictive algorithm or whatever, so I can't do this. So you got to get a little more creative. So it literally tells you,

this bet is going to lose. I don't know what the fuck I'm talking about. Look, it just says I'm not a predictive algorithm. So, you know, you take that at face value and you continue moving forward. Dig a little deeper. I got a little creative. I figured it out a little bit better.

And we got ourselves to a place where I can create a chat, GPT bet basically where I can input. I figured out how to write a question to chat GPT with enough inputs that it can then essentially tell me who's going to win. We tried this last week at UFC San Antonio or two weeks ago. I guess it wasn't last week. Two weeks ago at UFC San Antonio and it was shockingly close to accurate. I did it on the Trevin Giles Preston Parsons fight because that was an even money fight.

It was a pick-em fight, so I chose to do it on that one. And I don't have the script in front of me, but basically it was like, it's a back-and-forth fight, two guys going at it. Preston Parsons kind of wears Trevin Giles Down, manages to finally get them to the floor and score late submission. And there were about three of them that were within moments of getting the tap. I am losing my mind watching this because I think I've broken. I have solved it. I made it. I was like, I've done it.

I've done it. And it just barely doesn't hit. And then Preston Parsons loses split decision. So it is 0-1 officially. But I'm not done. I got to see this through. I got to keep going. And I was looking at the fights, looking at the car, I was like, I want to do it on

Kelvin Gaston, Chris Curtis, because I had a hard time getting a personal read on this fight. I'm historically bad at predicting Kelvin Gaston fights for whatever reason. And I'm not very good at Chris Curtis. fights either. So I was like, you know what? I can't do it. A. I can. So we asked Chat GPT about the Kelly Gasol and Chris Curtis fight. And here's what ChatGPT gave to me. It's kind of a long thing. I don't want to read it all for the sake of it. But the short version is Gasolm's more aggressive, pushing forward, looking for a knockout. Curtis is more measured,

using his footwork to avoid incoming attacks and he builds up an early lead. Gasolum's relentless this pressure is able to eventually kind of wear down Curtis. And, I quote, as the fight wore on, it became clear that Gasolam's toughness was taking a toll on Curtis. The fighter began to slow down. Gastilum seized the opportunity, launched a flurry of punches that rocked Curtis and sent him crashing to the mat. Gastilum follows up with ground and pound, raining down blows on Curtis until the referee steps in to stop the fight. Gastilum emerges victorious, his hand raised in triumph as the crowd roars with approval. So that's what we're looking at.

ChatG-T is telling me, it's telling us, really, the people, the Kelvin Gasol's going to get this win. It's saying by K-O, and I have to again pose the question to you, Connor, do we just bet the winner, or do we bet Kelvin Gasselm by K-O-T-K-O-D-Q? Kelvin Gassum currently minus 125 by K-KODD-Q plus 500.

Did it say a round? It didn't say around. Okay. I haven't factored that into adding it out. Until the knockout, which could happen, but I don't really see like too likely just because of how tough Curtis is. And like Chris Curtis is a durable, durable man. Kelvin Gasolm is not like a knockout artist by any means. Up until that point, like it sounded like pretty accurate.

Like they're just like trading blows and then like Gasolum's toughness is what wears because like Gasolum is is tough as nails as well. I don't know. This is your bet. This is your thing. I will say I'm on Gasolm kind of for what chat GPT's says. I feel like he's just he's just going to out volume and like he's not going to get that counter-KO punch that we've seen. Chris Curtis have success with so many times, Joaquin Buckley last time out. We saw it happen. Like we saw it happen against Phil Haas. Saw it happen against Brennan Allen. He, he has used that many times to win. I don't know if he's going to be able to use that here against Kelvin Gaslam. Gasolam's also fought the best of the best in this division had it obviously the war with Adasana. So I am on Gasolam. Whether you go with

K.O. or not, I'll leave that to I think I'm going to bet Gasselm, but I'm also going to sprinkle on the KO so I can have all ends of this covered. I'll be on K-O with you. Plus 500, I like that. I needed you to be here, Tony, because if Chatsy

PT bet becomes the new thing, I wanted you to be able to take full advantage of breaking gambling. I broke gambling. I love it. Because, I mean, we can transport this over to football season, come football season. I mean, I should have done this for

the final four, frankly. Yeah. Didn't think about it, but like, I'm shook. I'm going to continue to work on this. This is like finding Biff's Almanac. Like, we have it in our hands.

That's what I'm saying. We just have to harness the power of it. This, and I think we just take it's a third round knockout. Like, because I'm telling you, go back and watch the Preston Parsons fight, knowing that chat GPT was just like,

it's going to be back and forth and then he's going to eventually get a sub. There was a couple times where I was like, no way this is happening. Like, it looked like it was locked up. It looked like you're the most excited I've been all year watching a fight. Yes, like it was like. For Preston Parsons, Trevin Giles.

Yes, it was crazy. It was crazy. Like, obviously, like, I don't think we really any, I think you may have posted something about it, Jed, but like it was sort of a behind the scenes thing. A couple of the MMA fighting guys ran on it too. And like, we were going bananas. Like, I was like, the chat was popping off for the chat, GBT, BT bet. I'm locked in. It was locked in.

It was electric. So I, I, I, I, I am. I'm desperately hoping this hits because I don't care if I lose every other bet this weekend. If I've found the Rosetta Stone to gambling, that's all I mean. If Kelvin Gaslam is standing over Curtis and just wailing on him and the ref comes in, I'm going to lose my mind to AAA. You'll be the guy. We're editing the timeline right now.

You're going to be the guy that's like the crowd gave him so much approval. It's going to be you and everyone around you. Yes, like we're editing the timeline. All right. That is the main card. That is the featured prelim. Tony, thank you so much for joining us, brother. Boys, always a pleasure.

Always a pleasure. I will be boots on the ground if you need me. You got my number. You hit me up. I got our bets locked in. Let's make some money, huh? Let's make some money, bro. Have a fantastic time.

And you enjoy. Enjoy, dude. Enjoy. It's going to be fantastic. First time in 20 years. I know. I know. Hopefully not the last time in 20 years.

Hopefully we get some more of these down here. Because I would love to go to a car down in Miami. Dude, yes. Next time, I'll be here. We'll make it happen. All right, brother, Tony, be easy, man. God's appreciate you. Peace.

Peace. All right, let's keep it rolling on the prelims. Next up, Michelle Waterson Gomez taking on Luana Pinero. Right now you can get Gomez. Waterson Gomez at plus 140, Panero coming back at minus 165. I don't have any action on this. Strongly considered Michelle Waterson. Really like the idea of Michelle Waterson plus three and a half points.

So when it goes to the judge's scorecards, you get that hand. key cap and essentially she just has to win one round so i waited for that to come out it came out at minus 210 not playing that at minus two 10 i was hoping to get like a minus 125 or something on it like give me give me something good minus 210 i was like okay all right i'll just stay away from this fight so yeah i uh i don't know i want to bet pinero i don't know if i'm going to or not watson's 37 should have lost five in a row i know she got the win over angela hill splity that she probably didn't deserve. It's just hard for me to, I certainly can't back Michelle Waterston at this price. I'm a little unclear if Luana Pinero is good, but she probably has

enough juice in the tank here. But instead of betting it, even though maybe I'll do it, instead of doing that, you know what? I just thought, you know what we should do here? We have on this card several women's straw weight fights. And I'm going to parley up some overs. I thought about doing three of them, but the opener between Jacqueline M.R.M. and Sam Hughes, I have no confidence in that hitting the offer in that particular fight. And frankly, neither do the sports books as the over under two and a half is a pickum, basically. So instead, I'm parlaying up the over two and a half, Michelle Wardson-Gomis-Gon-A-Penero, with the over two and a half in the Cynthia Calvio Lupido-Gonnes fight. They're both thrown

minus 300 the payouts minus 140 basically um and yeah like it's waterston is in general durable she's been subbed a couple of times piniero has a few subs on on her uh resume but she has not fought anybody uh to the level of michelle walterson at this point so i think we're just likely in for a straw weight over so give me the straw weight over all right a little pacifist parley for the uh woman's A little passive is Paulet. I'm cool with that. Let's keep it rolling. On to the next prelim, Joe Pfeiffer B.

Joe Pfeiffer versus Gerald Mershardt. Right now, Joe Pfeiffer coming in at minus 190 Gerald Mierchard coming back at plus 160. I played Mierchart. I took a plus 168. I'm a little surprised by that. Yeah. I mean, dude, I'm just like Piper guy. I mean, dude, I like Joe Piper, but his level of competition compared to Gerald Mershart

is not quite on the exact same level. I'm just not fully sold on him. He's looked great. He had a grappling match with Eric Anders. Looked good in that as well. There's a world where I just have egg on my face. Almost every bet that I make this weekend, there's a world where I just have egg on my face.

Like, that's just something that I'm kind of accepting here. There's a lot of ways that I could potentially lose these bets. This one, Joe Piper comes out. Starch is Gerald Mearsart. We've seen it happen before. It wouldn't be the most shocking thing ever. but this is his first real test mearshart is always dangerous throughout the 15 round throughout the 15 minutes i thought he looked great against the big power puncher in bruno silva somewhat of a similar

matchup piper's probably better on the ground than than sylva is but always live always dangerous veteran with miles more experience than joe piper uh and i think there's there's a world where he gets this done should have waited honestly on the sub prop i see a couple of books out there with like a plus 375 plus 400 he's won 11 of his last 12 by sub so that's probably the smarter thing to do but just took him straight i do think that would be the smarter thing to do this is going to be a fun week because you and i have a lot of competing interests i like joe pifer i i sort of assumed joe pipher would be one of your guys you know just um up and coming riser see just feels like he's a feels like he should be a connor burke's guy got to be honest so i'm down with

Pfeiffer, but a little surprised. You, uh, you know, he's not an automatic bet for you. Um, and but I'm taking him by K.O. Gerald Mearsart, look, he's not not durable, right? Like, he's, he, he's just incredibly experienced, but seeing him get knocked out a couple of times, not too long ago, uh, Joe Pfeiffer got them hands and I'm, uh, it's minus 105, basically, basically even money. And I, I just like Joe Piper. I'm, I'm here to support. I'm, I'm here to support. support this is this week i am uh pretty much just backing prospects i'm like i like these people on the come up let's go for it so give me joey p i uh i think that one of us is going to end up looking nice and sharp here either the pifer by ko is going to hit

or gerald meershardt is going to hit yeah i think i think mirroar by sub if you're getting it like plus 300 is a little interesting for certain yeah i mean i saw one book of like like plus 375 for it. But I already laid the straight line on it. You know, a little bit of MMA math, stolfus. Just tapped him. All right, so that is that fight. I think it should be fun.

No matter what happens in it. I do believe it will be fun. The next fight. Might be fun for you. I don't know if it's going to be fun for everyone else. No, it's going to be miserable. It is Carl Williams and Jay Sherman, facing off in a heavyweight, bout right now

Carl Williams coming in at the short price of minus 475 Chase Sherman going back plus 380 short notice Carl Williams he just fought a few weeks ago won that bout by decision and let me tell you what I'm going to do here I'm going to do just that

I'm going to take him to win by decision plus 175 I love it we're on the same page not because I'm taking by decision because that's not what I do here it's a heavyweight fight shouts to Tony who remembered the majesty of it. I don't care that it's short notice.

Carl Williams is a decision machine. Last two fights gone to the cards just scoring. I'm like, I'm honestly shocked that he's minus 500 and his, I got his decision prop plus 175. It is, especially because, so draft Kings doesn't have an over under set on this fight at the moment since it is short notice,

but looking around elsewhere, I'm seeing it come in around minus 125. So they think this fight's going along and that he's winning. Very unclear why the decision. I just have to assume it's because Chase Sherman has been submitted in or knocked out a bunch. But he's also lost a bunch of decision. Of his 11 losses, five are in the cards. He's not some wilting lily.

He can hang at least a little bit, particularly if all Carl Williams is going to do is shoot takedons and then gas out and get real tired. So this is one of those best. bets it's the over it's how i'm always am but this first the first round will tell the tail if williams it burns a lot of energy in the first round and we're getting into minute seven minute eight at the start around two and it starts getting real heavy weighty then that's when i'm alive that's when the the excitement comes because anything could happen and hopefully nothing does and we just make it all the way to the final bell for you good sir my my my worry is is that either car william

Williams gasses out and Chase Sherman takes advantage of that. Like, you also have to kind of think Chase Sherman's going to gas out. Or Chase Sherman just, like, does, like, so, like, in the fights that, like... I want this to be a Sherman, Parker Porter, with wrestling kind of fight. Yeah, so, like, when you talked about, like, he doesn't wilt, typically he doesn't wilt when it's a striking affair. It's when it goes to the ground, which is what Carl Williams does. but also at the same time,

Carl Williams doesn't submit people. He's just like kind of just like a pressure wrestler. It's going to be dicey. I can guarantee that because the second, I'm talking the second that the Carl Williams-Bredski fight ended just a few weeks ago on the UFC Las Vegas card, the Piotrion Mrab de Voszvili card. The second it ended and I was on Carl Williams,

I was like, that man's never getting another dime of my money until he grew himself. And here I am, betting him by decision again, And here you are. Now, I like this. It was greasing, dude. I do think it was, it was a lot of stuff happening in that fight. It was a great heavyweight over.

It was a great heavyweight over. Oh, yeah. That'll be a good one. Just four fights to go. Let's, let's breeze to be bad boy. Carl Williams could become the figurehead of heavyweight overs. You know where he's from. I mean.

You know where he's fighting out of. We like our boy is all I'm going to say. Friend of the podcast, fighting out of Atlanta, Georgia. Friend of the podcast. Atlanta. Let's go. I mean, tough not to like him. Tough not to like him.

And, you know, according to the topology, he's currently the 69th best heavyweight fighter in the world. Nice. Yeah, can't dislike that. All right, next up, we go to Cynthia Calvillo

and Lupita Gonides, a straw weight bout. Cynthia coming down for the first time in a few years. Right now you can get Lupita Godinez minus 275, Cavillo coming back plus 230. Again.

And let me run something by you here. actually. Oh, I love it. So I took Cynthia Calvia just like threw a half unit on her at plus 240. It's really more of a, I don't necessarily trust Lupida Godinez. And I don't necessarily think Cynthia Calvio is like fully, fully washed. I think she can compete in this, especially if if Lupita is not going for the takedowns and getting them successfully or if she even goes for the takedowns. And if it becomes a boxing match and she uses the pressure, I think she can win this. Plus this is just mid-tier women's MMA. And it's like a huge line. And, Lupida Godinez for three losses in the UFC have all come as a minus 220 or bigger favorite.

So there is someone out there right now that has parlayed up Lupita Godinez and all three of her losses at minus 220 or bigger and is going back to the world this weekend. I can almost, I can almost guarantee it. Here's what I'm going to throw by you though. I got plus money on Calvillo, Mirchart, Gasolam, Font, and Mosvidal. What I'm thinking is a little like all dogs go to heaven parlay. I love all dogs go to heaven. That's a phenomenal.

I love this so much. Here's the thing. What do you think I mean by all dogs go to heaven parlet? I just parlaying up a bunch of dogs. I was saying all dogs go to heaven and they all lose. And I just take all the favorites as like a barrier if I just go over on these underdogs. Oh. You're saying.

I don't know. I think you just parlay all the dogs together because I want to have the plus 400 thousand dollar success story i want that to be can you imagine the places no bets barred would go if we won 400 grand on like a four dollar bet so right now if i parlayed up gasillum calvio meershardt font and mazvadoe it pays out at plus 191197 still got to get some more still got to get some more going there but what is what is that one i mean i think we just got to you just got to parlay the props props and rounds you know Wow.

It's really, it's mesmerizing looking at it. Just like the thought of throwing one unit on that and it's somehow hitting because $50 would win me $10K. I mean, it's a lot. It's a lot of K. It's also not going to have. Also, I'm hoping that two of these win.

That's like if you want, that's the most insane to me is think about that. You're talking 50 to win 10K, right? And that's like a lot of big underdog. and that's not even in the neighborhood of the plus $400,000 super hitter. Like you have to, you have to add like 12 more plus 300. Let's go Santiago by decision.

Let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go, let's go Mir sharp by sub. What else are we working with here? That's got to be getting us someplace. I mean, we're already at 25, let's, let's add one more. more and like we'll really start going on. Oh, wow. Let's see. Let's see what they're giving it to us at.

Mosferol by decision is plus a thousand. Now we're, we're inflating quickly now. Let's go, let's go Adasanya by chaos. Starting to cook. Just for the hell of it. Plus 300 there.

Now we're getting in that range. Now, now $10 wins us $12,000. Oh, now we're starting to really talk my language, just a hope and a prayer. Yeah, I mean, yeah, I guess like that's what you're doing. A hope and a prayer.

It's like the lottery. You're playing the lottery only instead of ping pong balls that you have no control over. You get to at least feel some level of connection to the event. Okay, I'm not going to lie. I got it to, I actually do not hate this three-leg parlay. Ponsonabio by decision, Mirsharp by submission. Mir Sharpe by submission Adasanya by K.O.

is plus 10,400. I don't like, I really don't hate that. That's not awful. Certainly not awful. What if I threw in Rob Font by decision? That's gonna keep moving it right on up. That gets just a plus 40,000. It's a lot of thousand.

I don't like, I don't... It's a lot of thousand. I don't hate that. What is Steve Garcia by K.O? They don't have it up yet. They don't have it up yet. Oh, they don't have that one. I was gonna say, I was gonna say,

I mean, this is a long shot of all long shots. What if I just threw five on it, just for the hell of it? That's two grand. Why not? I mean, what it's $5 at really? Yeah, I think I might do it. I might throw a five around that.

God, I hope you hit it. It would be the best. I'd be so. Rob Fon decision, Adasanya, K.O. mere short submission, Ponzi Niveo by decision. Yeah, I mean, it's not going to hit, but I don't mind throwing a fiber on it.

I certainly don't mind throwing a fiber on it. Let's live that dream. Back to the Calvio-Gaudenez fight, though, just for the sake of it. First thing I'll say is, I already mentioned up taking the over two and a half. I mean, good fighters, Godinez is just not a big finisher.

Never has been. Calvio is mostly durable. and when she has lost, it's been by sub. That's not really Godinez's wheelhouse. So I think we're long for the cards here. I will say, I think I mentioned this on a previous pod when we had a Lupi-Gaudenus fight. It makes you feel a little bit better

about where you're at here. Statistically, you can't deny these numbers. Lupi-Godenas has never defeated a woman taller than 5-3. Sintecalcovio 5-4. I heard that. So that's a hard data point. It's a hard data point for you to kind of feel a little bit better about the Calvio backing. I mean, I don't hate it.

I don't hate it. Yeah, I mean, if Lupy comes out here and just ragdolls her, I'm not going to be shocked. You're not going to be color and me shocked. It'll be okay. But yeah, I'm on Calvio. Big dog odds. We'll see what can happen. Let's keep it rolling.

Three more fights to get into. Ignacio Baha Mondes taking on Trey Ogres. and Tre Oggden, technically on short notice, but he's really just stepping in because he lost his fight two weeks ago. Right now, Baja Mondez minus 345, Ogden plus 285. Not really interested in playing anything on this. I like Baja Mondez. Don't mind him as like a parlay piece. I think he's just kind of the better fighter here. Everywhere this one goes, I think he's going to be able to pick him apart on the feet, bigger, taller, ranger. I like Baja Mondez to get it done. I don't have any disagreement with you.

I think he does get it done. I don't have a bet. No price for me on this one. Just already have plenty of action down. Didn't feel like a prelim card that I wasn't going to do a ton of research on. So I think he's going on. But that's all I got.

Plenty of action, but I've only got like eight units exposure right now, which I like. I like it. Just cautious, close to the chest. Close to the chest. Let's keep it close to the chest. All right.

A couple more fights to get into. here. I actually do have something on this next one. Steve Garcia taking on Shiley Ann Nordenbeca last time we saw Northern Becker out there. Dicey, dicey saw some sketchy stuff happen. Fought Derek Minter last time out, line, went to oblivion. But I'm going to go ahead to say that. Dominant win. Dominant win, yeah. Shout out to the Derek Minter subbedders on that one. That was sick. Shileyan minus 205, Steve Garcia plus 175. I'm actually on the under two and a half. So get a minus 135 Garcia brawler. Six of his last seven ended in the first. your second round. He's going to bring the action. Charlene is low volume. He's not going to be

able to do that here unless he just pushes the wrestling and lays and praise. In that case, I'm just going to have to eat the L. But I think Garcia is going to turn this into a brawl and someone's 29 of Shailiane's 39 wins or by finish. I think we see another one here. I agree completely. That was perfect. It's just, I mean, yeah, I, this isn't going long. This just isn't going long, you know. Steve Garcia is fun, man. He's a fun-inous fighter. Very fun.

And if he comes in with a pre-existing injury and James Kraus in his corner, then we know for sure if this fight won't be coming along. Zing! Stevie Garcia! Heides for no man. Yeah, I got nothing. All right.

Well, then let's finish this bad boy off. It is a strawweight bout. Jacqueline Amiram taking on Sam Hughes. Amiram, big favorite. Minus 245, Sam Hughes plus 205. thought about playing up parlaying up amiram uh she's you know undefeated most of her wins by finish all of her wins by finish via first round submission one ko on a record but i don't know i don't know this is this is prospects this is unknown i decided to stay away i think that's a reasonable

answer uh i didn't even want to take the over here because ummeran's her ability to finish is really concerning against the fighter like Sam Hughes, who's fine, but not exceptional, just a fine fighter, has proven to be relatively durable in her career, but I don't have any idea how good Amarin really is, and I'm not willing to bet money on anything just kind of as we're figuring it out at this stage.

So I'm picking Amaran to win. I'm not going to lay the price here or at any of the props. Just think she's going to get it done now. Yeah. I'm with you. I think she probably does get it done and it'd be exciting to see her get a finish. She's definitely got some star potential with how many finishes she's gotten. Yeah, she could be really, really good. And that's the end of the card, but I have a question for you before we wrap and get out of here, Connerbergs.

There's also a PFL this week. Do you have any action on the PFO? I love that you asked me this because I felt like it brought some life back into me here. strongly considering Marcelo Nunez, minus 225 against Mo Green. Okay. I don't hate that at all. Yeah, it feels like that's like a nice one for him to get it done. I don't mind that. I like, I mean, the numbers getting blown out now.

Lord have mercy. I think Larissa Pacheco is going to steam roll Julia Bowdo. Yeah, numbers are big. minus 800 now. Ali Walsh, I think he almost certainly wins. Number's too big for me to bet, but I'm with you. Yeah, I mean, maybe like some hundred years. Tell me, tell me, tell me.

I just have a, I don't have a bet, but I have a question. And it's, why is Bruno Capoloza a, like, two to one favorite over Mateo Schaeffel? I know Mateo Schaeffel wasn't good. These two dudes fought less than a year ago and Schaeffel won a UD in the 2022 regular season. that ended up being, you know, the thing that kept Capoloza out of the playoffs, defending, would have been a defending champion, I think. Yeah. So, you know.

I have no idea. Just unclear why he's a big favorite. I could see him being a favorite. He would appear to be a better fighter, but being a two to one favorite over a guy who, the most recent fight of his was a loss to shuffle, just seems very odd to me. I mean, they were thinking, like, Capoloza was like the future for PFL, a minute there. Like he was finishing everyone and he was,

I mean, he looked like he would have been. He's a minus 560 going to that last one. He was born storming a bunch of people who aren't very good. Yeah. So, I mean, the odds have come down a lot in that regard, but I don't, it feels like, I don't know. I'm not sure I want to take the bet, but just feels a little weird. You know, we were just talking, we talked at the top about guy in the rematch being an

underdog despite winning. We've got that again. at a bigger price point and much worse fighters when we're talking capitalizing chaffel. So it caught my attention and I wanted to get thoughts from you. I might take, I may take like an under prop

or a fight doesn't go to a decision on the Renan Ferraria fight. That always feels kind of safe. But yeah, so far, I might just put up a chalky Pfl parlay. Who are you thinking of putting in there? Checo, Pacheco, Oliwash. I like Elena Klesnick,

as like a person but Aspenline's probably going to win that fight just getting shocking with it Goldsov maybe in there you know Anytime you see this like the Marina Mokinat

Tina fight I have no idea who that is but she's a minus 500 and I don't know why I would be lying if I pretended to have a deep understanding of either woman competing in that one. Yeah, I mean, like, are we going to build one up right here? Let's, let's say you go, let's say you go Larissa Pacheco and Ali Walsh. I mean, you're only at minus 3.30 after that.

What we had next? Do we believe in Goldsoff against Jorg and de Castro? I would add Aspenlatt. Okay, let's add Aspenlatt. I think Aspenlatt's going to beat Elena Kolesnick. That gets us to minus 166. gets us in there maybe we're just one more now we're getting maybe maybe Marcella Nunes

maybe Marcella Nune is in there minus 2, 225 that'll get us to plus money for sure now you're at plus money now you're at plus money now you're at plus money and that's just a chalk soup PFL chalk soup

I don't hate it don't hate it I mean maybe that's just maybe I just be really dumb and just add Marcelo Nunes to that parley Yeah, I think that's what I'm going to do I like it

I love your strategy for this weekend of underdogs in the UFC chalk out the wazoo and the PFL. It's a great combo I think it's going to work out well Yeah, I can't wait Hopefully it's a winning week There's no telling if it's going to

The way my year's going Hopefully it's a plus 10,000 week Oh yeah, I forgot I'm going to throw that fiver in I'm going to throw that fiver in That would be That would be something as the kids say. Man.

One book just dropped that line on Elyo Teporia, Josh, and it is moved quickly. Oh, what was the line? It opened up at minus 200. It's now minus 260. Don't like that nearly as much. I don't like that number. Don't like that number.

All right. That's it. We can talk about that number when time comes. Got quite a few bets already for Kansas City. Can't wait for that number. that one, you're going to be boots on the ground, if I'm not mistaken. Sure am. Sure am.

I'm not. Be there for Kansas City. Very excited. Yeah. Love the bar. Love the barbecue. Got Max and. And our boy.

I don't know if he's, I don't know if he's our boy, but he's certainly my boy on Arnold. Oh, then you're fucking, you're crazy. I'm very excited. Yes. Our boy. Yes. Arnold Allen is, you, you were throwing out Joe Piper earlier like you were

like, oh, yeah, I thought Joe Pfeiffer might be one of your boys. Arnold Allen is like, I thought he was, I thought he'd be your boy. Arnold Allen is like tried and true. I mean, I know he's aero boy. Oh, well, him coming on the show as much as he does. Are we, are we going to have ourselves? Pick him. I already bet him.

Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Let's go. Preemptive Wolfpack Wager for next week, guys. Yes, sir. All right, that's it.

I'm done talking. 287. Should be sick. Miami. Can't wait. Watch the watch party on Saturday. See you next week for Kansas City. Jed, get there safe.

Peace. Love y'all. To the Vox Media Podcast Network.