MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Does Jailton Almeida Keep Rolling Against Derrick Lewis At UFC Sao Paulo?

Episode Date: November 1, 2023

The No Bets Barred boys are back this week with a full breakdown of UFC Sao Paulo and the main event matchup between Jailton Almeida and Derrick Lewis. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a discussion Francis Ngannou's surprise performance against Tyson Fury before diving into the betting breakdowns this week. Topics discussed include whether Lewis has a chance at pulling off the upset or if Jailton is simply too good, whether Nicolas Dalby can remain "The Brazilian Slayer," and just what are the chances of pulling of one big Brazilian parlay? Tune in for episode 67 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose

to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now, only from Audible. ...to the Vox Media Podcast Network. Going on, y'all, we are back. Another edition of No Bet's Bar, this time, UFC, Sao Paulo.

Motion heading back to Brazil. My man, Jailton, Almeida, taking on Derek Lewis, on short notice. in the main event. Excited for this one. Second time in Brazil this year. Rio earlier back in January, I had a terrible,

terrible card that time. But hopefully a nice little Brazilian bounce back, as they say, on this one. I mean, first time in Brazil in, like 10 months, 11 months.

Sal Paolo, not back to Rio. I like that. We're mixing it up. Mixing it up a little bit. Just getting a little tasty. A lot of Brazilians. A lot of the heart.

I mean, you would expect it, but a Brazilian in every fight, I believe. Let me confirm that a quick look over, but I think we've got at least one Brazilian in every fight. Actually, it might just be one Brazilian. Don't even have any Brazil on Brazil violence. I like that, actually. I like that. I mean, the home crowd is going to have someone to cheer for in every one of these.

It means we could, if we were so inclined, cook up a big Brazilian parlay. Just put it out there Just 13 fights Imagine the payout for that Would be a monstrosity 13 fights Quite a few underdogs Quite a few could be

Maybe we have to do it I don't know We'll get into it Connor Because it's exciting We're like now we're back You know We're like we're back Back in the swinging things

We had a couple of A couple of things there Just a little teaser But took some more time off I feel now we've got a good little stretch are waiting us to close out the year. Yeah, I mean, we got this. 295. We'll have a couple more fight nights. PFL world championships. Don't forget. I mean, it's a Thanksgiving tradition at this point. Never forget. UFC Austin's going to be great. UFC 296. So yeah, we'll have a nice

little stretch here to close out the year. But this week, we are focused on UFC South Paulo. Before we focus on that, I've got to ask you one question. Please. I ask you one question. How nervous were you Saturday? I know you were a man with a big position. Yeah, big position. On Mr. Tyson Fury. Not a monster better. Yeah, I had several hundreds on Mr. Tyson Fury had had that bet for a long time.

I wasn't that nervous just because I was cheering so hard for Francis. And I had kind of begun to accept it from like, round two. So it wasn't like it was like, it wasn't like it came out of nowhere and like Francis picked up the pace at the end and like closed the gap. It was from the opening bell, I was like, oh, man, this is, this is not what I expected it to look like. And then when he dropped him in round three, I was just like, mother, like I might be losing this money. There's a very real world where I'm losing this money. So I kind of started to accept it. I also kind of started to be like, wow, can you imagine?

Can you actually imagine a world where Francis Ngano gets his hand raised here? And that was a world where I was willing to live in. So yeah, like I really wasn't that nervous. I'm not going to lie to you, I was with my girlfriend. She knew how much I had on it. She's much less invested in the fight game. She was much more nervous than me.

She was like, when Tyson got his name and out, she was like, oh, thank God. Like, thank God. Split decision. Yeah, I was like, I took a nice little breather. and honestly set it on the MMA area yesterday. I'll continue to say it now. And it's just like a perfect outcome for me.

I was about to say. Francis shows now. It's like you couldn't have threaded the needle better. Yeah, I mean, it was just threading the needle. Yeah, it was especially like I was obviously eyeing the live odds all throughout. And like in like round eight, Tyson was like minus 110. And I was just like, man. I took it minus 400.

I was like, I got so much CLV. This is unbelievable. Could I just wait until round eight. Could I just wait until going into round 10. Got him a plus money. Got him a plus money. There was so much opportunity out there. Yeah, yeah.

That wasn't fun. I'm probably not going to do that again for a while. Though I did, the lines aren't going to be available, unfortunately. That was like a, that was a six-unit bet. I was willing to put 10 units down on a three-leg parlay, but the lines are not going to be available because it would have been a prop parlay. And it would have been the main event this weekend, Jelton, Derek Lewis, and then the co-main and the main event next week. Tommy Aspinall versus Sergey Pavlovich and Alex Pereira versus Yuri Parasca.

You're feeling confident on some things, huh? All of them to not go to a decision. Oh, well, I'm confident on those as well. Five rounds. If I could have parlayed all three up of them, you know, maybe take the under three and a half in the main event this weekend, under three and a half in the co-main next week. and then that fight doesn't go to a decision in the main event next week. I mean, I would have unloaded. Unloaded the clip.

But we're not going to get that. Unfortunately, prop markets, much slower than the normal markets. So, yeah, any wagers for you? I know obviously you were supporting Big Frank, but any wagers on the fight? No, I ended up not making wagers. I'm really glad it didn't. I almost on one of our shows made a tattoo bet with one Jose Young's. because I was supporting Big Friend

and I was predicting Big Friend to be victorious and he was like, well, don't you tattoo bet me? And I was like, that might be a bridge too far. And then I would have been very upset with the decision

if that's, it would have been the exact wrong way for me, in contrast, you threading the needle perfectly would have been tough. But let me tell you, when the knockdown came,

it's about as excited as I've been all year long. Like, that was just, There's been some great moments this year. There's been some absolutely incredible moments. I know one guy, I believe it's Dan's stuff. He does work for the Action Network.

You talk about threading the needle. I think I saw him take Tyson Vier to get knocked down, but win at like plus 700, plus 600. That's a beautiful bet right there. That's a beautiful bet right there. Yeah, I saw Dan post that. I'm not sure if that was his bet or someone on the Action Network who bet it. Shout out to who. Shout out to whoever pulled that one because...

That's a dart right there. I mean, that... That's just reading the future. I also say, like, I am a little disappointed. I said behind the scenes last week, after talking about it, I was just like, fight goes to a decision plus 500 is not a bad shout. And, of course, I never pulled the trick. Yeah, that wouldn't have been bad because, I mean, I, you know,

I thought Francis was going to win, obviously, so I didn't think he's going to win on the cards, but I could see a world when it happened, and then we got it. This dude's always had a great one. It's amazing. All right, let's move on the UFC South Paulo this week. We are heading back to Brazil.

It may be a little Brazilian steakhouse this week in honor of it. But we start with the main event. Fogo? Oh, shout out to Fogo, man. A little Fogo, D.C. But we shall see if that is in the cards. Jailton Almeida, taking on Derek Lewis. Derek Lewis stepping in for Curtis Blades on short notice,

heavyweight main event right now. Jailton, Almeida. is sitting as the minus 485 favorite Derek Lewis coming back at plus 370. Love Derek Lewis. Gave us one of the best moments of the year, that flying knee back of UFC 291. But you also, buddy, you also. Yeah, but Jailton Alamed is my guy, man. He has been an absolute money train for me.

I'm not sure if I've lost a bet on him yet. I have, I have. I took him round one against Shemiel. But, I mean, you talk about parlay anchors. this is you know we might as well call him anchor almeda because he will he will anchor just about any parley you've got he won't make you worry about it either so it's always the tough choice man it's just like i'm i'm taking ammaida i'll have almeda in parley's let's be clear there it's do you take him in round one do you take him in round two do you take him by sub do you take

them by K.O. You always got a lot of options. Something that I'm eyeing and I'm curious as to what the price is going to be for a same game parlay of Almeda and the under one and a half. So if you go round one, 14 of his 19 wins come in the first round. If you do the under one and a half, 18 of his 19 wins come under the one and a half. Derek Lewis, his last two losses coming around one, but a lot of those coming around two and three. But if you, if you're not, if you're do his last six losses under one and a half. That's five of his last six. For some reason, with these heavyweight guys, I mean, that extra two and a half minutes matters. I do think Jailton wins. We've seen the grappling deficiencies that Derek Lewis has. I know it's Derek Lewis

just stand back up, but I mean, you can go to a fight just earlier this year against Sergei's feedback. I mean, the grappling deficiencies are clear. Statistically, a 52% takedown defense. How many takedowns is Jailton Almeida going to need in this one? You know he's going to shoot. So yeah, I think he gets it done. It's just how and when. I mean, I'm sorry to be this guy, but I'm going to go against you here. Maybe not logically or reasonably or rationally, but Derek Lewis simply doesn't believe in jujitsu. And if he cannot believe in jujitsu, I can believe in him. The man is just going to stand back up. I think there are a couple of things going for him here.

I am still just deeply unsure. I just don't know what to make of like half the heavy weights these days. Sergei Pavlovich just keeps running over people like Prime Francis and Ganu. And I don't actually know if he's good at fighting or not. Every time he touches somebody, they just die.

So he's obviously good at fighting but like how good is he? No idea. Jeltaa made of the same thing. He just front kicks and then he shoots a double and he takes you down and and the game is over. And we haven't seen any depth to him.

We haven't seen him really even face any pushback. I just don't know what to make of that. And Derek Lewis, he has the best jujitsu in the world by not believing in it. And I think, you know, you mentioned, yeah, earlier this year, absolutely, the Spivak thing, it happened. Right, right. You can't discount that. We'll say, I have a- Just like nine months ago.

I do have a broad question about. the difference in who Sergei Spivak is versus Jailton Almeida physically. I mean, Jailton Almeida looks amazing getting off the bus. But we all know that this dude is a light, heavy weight, who's just not cut in weight, just to compete up here. Sergei Spivak, big dude, I think he can have more success thwarting the just stand-up game when it's Derek Lewis. I'm kind of interested to see.

So for me, I'm taking the shot. I mean, why would you ever bet Derek Lewis as an underdog in this spot? you can get an extra few points of value on the K.O. prop at plus 400. If he's going to win this fight, he's going to knock him out. Like, it's just going to be a classic Derek Lewis, do, you know, swinging lunchboxes and stuff in one take down or standing up and hitting the dude. So I'm honestly shocked that there's that much of a difference between the KO and as a regular.

I was genuinely surprised. Jeltena Al-Meda, I bet online right now, minus 450. Jelton Al-Meda inside the distance minus 525. That's just, that's math right there. The inside. So here, this was the thing that I thought was weird in this same line. Derek Lewis by K.O. plus 400 straight up plus 350. Inside the distance plus 360.

Got to worry about that. I don't worry about that. I get the inside the distance, but you're giving me 40 points as if Derek Lewis is about to submit Jelton Almeida. Just make it the same, my guys. No, but the Jailton Almeida, he is minus 450 on the money line. He is minus 525 inside the distance. How is that even possible? Just.

That why would you ever do? that. You're losing 75 points and he has to win inside the distance when you could just take the money line. I mean, this needs to get adjusted. That does seem odd. No, yes, it's definitely. Why would you do that? Money's a $4.50, money line. Minus 525 inside the distance. It makes no sense.

Bet online dropping the ball there. Shut up to bed online. The thing is like it's like his submission number is just like it's like the Raoul Rosas last month. It's just like you kind of got a zig one other, there's Zag. It's going to be sweaty because if he gets him down, he'll, like, probably get full mount and, like, you don't know if he's going to get the, you know,

rear naked choke or he's going to try and pound him out. Like, it's, uh, it's tough. I think this could be a good zag spot if you're, if you're committed to Jailton Almeida, um, going for the KOTCO and the pound out finish. But for me, I'm, I'm taking the shot plus 400, Derek Lewis. Let's keep this, keep this train rolling for, for the Black Beast, you know. That would be magical. If he comes out and just delivers a flying knee immediately again,

one might actually be a terrific tactic against a man who is going to shoot a double leg immediately. And two, it would just be dope. Yeah, I mean, of course it would be dope. But I mean, the flying knee I don't see happening. But I mean, yeah, he's obviously alive. He's live for a knockout. Derek Lewis is just, he's always alive for a notch. He's always live for a knockout.

So I'm going to look at the Almeida and the under one and a half, same game. But like if they're if they're giving me like minus 200 on that, I'm just not not taking it because the under one and a half is like minus 350 and his money line is minus 450 or whatever it is. Fight doesn't go to a decision minus 3,000. That's a might still be valuable. I believe in that. I think that is a winner. That just.

I don't see a world where this where this does where this does go to a decision. All right, so I'll be on Jailton. Definitely have him in Parlay. We'll probably end up taking them round one just, you know, for a quick little fireworks. It does that. Kind of like a, kind of like a, a nerfy, no run first inning.

Like it's kind of just like a quick in-out. Just trying to figure out where you go with that. Nice. You know, it's a nice little fun bet. So yeah, you own the underdog in the Black Beast. I like it. Let's go to the co-main event. Your thoughts here on the underdog. It is our man, Nicholas Dalby,

taking on Gabriel Bonfim and a welterweight bout. And right now, think Jailton's a big favorite. Bonfine minus 625, Dalby coming back at plus 455. I mean. Has no one told them? Did the books not know? Nicholas Dalby, yes, 22, four and one. throw that out the window because this fight is taking place in Sao Paulo, Brazil,

where Nicholas Dalby, undefeated in Brazil, undefeated against Brazilians, undefeated against Brazilians while fighting in Brazil. Last I checked, this one in Brazil. King of Brazil. Gabriel Bonfim. Oh, he's Brazilian. Yeah, I mean, this is, I mean, Nicholas Dalby, he's drawn to Englishmen. in Dublin.

He's lost to Americans in Sweden, fought the good fight, but came out with an L against Germans in Poland. I mean, he's done it all. But what he hasn't done? He loses to a Brazilian. The man is, he's, I mean,

I know pit bull, Mr. Worldwide, but I mean, Dahlby, Dahlby's pretty Mr. Worldwide. Yeah. And he apparently hates Brazil because all he does is defeat its chosen people. The guy has had to have fought in like a record number of countries. Obviously a ton of fights in Denmark. He is a Danish fighter.

And just fought against a ton of different nationalities too. She goes through his resume. Yeah. But then he's fought in England. He's fought in Brazil. He's fought in Ireland, Croatia, Germany, Sweden, England again, fought in Wales. The UAE, the U.S., Brazil. again, England again. I mean, the guy is, it's quite a few countries, quite a few countries.

Either way, yeah, I'm throwing a sprinkle on Dolby. I mean, I just have to do it. It's for the gimmick. Is he going to win? I don't know. Gabriel Bonfim finishes pretty much everyone in the first round. And if not, he's probably going to finish you in the second round. But Nicholas Dalby. I can't, I can't knock you or argue with you. I wanted to have the hutzpah to throw on this one. Wow. And I would have. I would have. have under all the talk we had i would have under normal circumstances connor there's one big issue here and i'm going to feel i'm going to be filled with regret when this inevitably loses but you're doing it for the gimmick i'm doing the other one for the gimmick

because bond theme brothers there are two bomb fames there's two bomb fiends fighting on this one card the bomb feme brothers parlay i mean we've been here before we've we've seen it happen before and and it's it was a winner was a winner the last time we We ran the Bomb Feme Bros. Parlay. And I, who am I to argue with a winner? You gotta keep running it back because someone's gonna pay you off. Dolby's also a winner. And this is a bit, you know, we've kind of like really dug our heels into.

He's plus 450. I mean, what is the Bonfine Brothers parlay, like minus 275? That's like minus 255. It's not ideal, certainly. But the other part of this is if I take Dalby, then I'm gonna, and I don't have the two Bonfemes, I have like three bets. this card. I'm actually not going to lie.

I'll just go ahead and break it. I am also. So, like, I technically am also on Gabriel von Femme in the big Brazilian favorite parlay. That's a seven-leger. Yeah. Well, Connor, can I throw this out? Because the big Brazilian favorite parlay, while we were talking, I decided, you know what?

Let's do the Brazil parlay, just all of them. 13 fights, 13 Brazilians. If you want to parlay all that up together, which I am probably going to do for the gimmick, I'll only be placing $1 $1.00 on it though because plus $88,000. Wow. $659.

One buck going to get me a whole pile of cash if this one snipes it. So I'm going to do it just to do it but say goodbye that dollar probably. Yeah, that's quite a big if.

I mean, all 13 of them pulling it off. A lot of underdogs. A lot of underdogs. So here's the craziest thing. Like if you get to the main card, with it still alive, like, things would get real interesting. Yeah. I mean,

it's real interesting. If I get to the main car with it alive, I am going to be, if we get, my dream, Connor, is to have it, have 12 legs up, and we've cashed them all. And then we're getting to Jailton Almeida, Derek Lewis. And somehow I am now in a world where Jailton Almeida winning is terrific, and then Derek Lewis is going to win. I'm going to have found a way to be sad with my budget. That's going to be a tough ticket, man.

I mean, within the first six fights, half of them are like plus 150 plus 280. I mean, the ticket's probably going to be dead the very first fight of the evening. Yeah, very well might be. Yes, that could die from fight one. All right. That was the co-made event. Let's, uh, you're going to be part of laying up on fame completely deserting the Brazilian beast, Brazilian slayer, Nicholas Dalby.

but whatever, you know, streets won't forget. I think Nicholas Dalby is going to, he's going to Francis and Ghanu this. He probably should, maybe he should win. He's certainly going to vastly overplay his odds, but Bomb Fem's just going to get the dub in the end. In all seriousness, I really, I'm throwing a quarter unit on this just for the bit.

I do think he's going to play closer than minus 600. I fully agree with that. Like, I think those odds are long. this Gabriel is the better bomb theme but Dolby's just shoe leather tough Yeah but I went back and watched that Jesse Ronson fight I could see this fight going the exact same way Like I know it got it overturned to a no contest

But like he did get finished in the first time Yeah So like There's a world where that happens Either way quarter unit All burn it in the name of the Brazilian slang The Danishman Nicholas Dolby I'm gonna have to wear my Christian Erickson

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Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over-deliver. Service fees exclusions in terms apply. The rematch, everyone has been waiting on three years in the making Rodrigo Nassimento taking on Dantel May's heavyweight bout. Right now, Nassimento coming in minus 192, Dantel Maze plus 160. Thank God. Thank God.

Thank God. We're getting this back. Yeah, I am hyped, man. I am absolutely just buzzing over this one. Not going to take a side of. Been asking for it. Ben asking for it. Not going to take a side other than Nassimento and the big Brazilian favorite parlay.

But I am going to take this fight does not go to a decision. I am aware going into it. This could be just a sloppy heavyweight out that goes all 15 and I'm just kind of like, God, why did I do that? But if we look at the statistics, I mean, Nassimento, 10 of 12 fights didn't go, Mays, 11 of 16, you know, that's 75% of their total career fights. they're also heavyweights that always has to come into play um we've also already seen this fight and it ended in the second round i'm getting fight doesn't go at minus 160 like just strictly

by the numbers i'm i'm going to have to play that i respect it uh this is at least the first fight we're somewhat aligned on in that uh i'm trying a new thing Connor i've decided um the ufc's doing this thing where somehow they're just rebooking fights that have already happened that no one cares about. When they got the contract for this, were they not just like... The deja vu? All right, I guess. What's going on here?

It's weird. No controversy first time, right? I don't know. Okay. You know, we, I'm going to learn a lesson because a month ago, maybe a little longer ago, we got the other fight everyone was claiming for. Marina Rodriguez, Michelle Wardson Gomez, too. And I was like, I'm going to zig this time.

I'm going to zig this time. I'm going to zag, you know. We all saw Marina Hadriguez beat her. Warrison Gomez, she can come out. She can wrestle her three rounds. She's going to do it. Didn't go that way at all.

We just got a more definitive performance out of Marine Adriguez. Sure did. And I'm going to take a lesson from that. I'm going to say, we watched these two dudes fight. Had a pretty clean outcome. I'm going to say that that same outcome is going to happen again. So I'm taking Nassimento by submission plus 225.

Nice. You know, if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Don't fix it, dude. Don't fix it. I like it. I mean, yeah. We've seen the fight before. So hopefully... I know that this outcome can't happen. I know that it is live. Sub, yes. I think it's going to be very live. Because I've seen it happen. I think it's going to be very live. I'm hoping that we get a double hitter in this case. I am cashing and you are cashing as well. Because if he gets the sub, then that means the fight didn't go to a decision.

I had something I was going to say, but I don't have to be. it anymore. So let's move on to the next fight. Cayo Baralho taking on Abis Magamadov in a middleweight bout. And yeah, you gotta explain something to me. Please. What is going on in this fight? Mr. Comain himself.

She's in the, I don't even know what to call this. A featured middleweight, it's not even the only featured middleweight main card fight. Mr. Co. Man himself taking on Mr. Main Event. It's her main event. And then they're just here, buried in the main card. Buried in the main card.

And I also have to say on top of that, we got Abis at like plus 110 to like plus 125 three months ago against Sean Strickland in a main event. And now, you know, buried on the main card. He's a plus 215 to Kyle Barala. I mean, it's a game moves fast. Game moves fast, man. I'm like, damn. Like, is it worth the play against Baralo?

Is it worth going with the dog on Abis? Yeah, I mean, this is, I think it's going to be a good fight. I think it's going to be a good fight. I don't know how it can't be a good fight because I think Baralho is immensely talented. And Abis Magamatta was going to come in here and push a pace, whether you like it or not, because he's only got so long. I mean, we saw it in the Strickland fight. I mean, he gassed out.

He's going to push a pace for seven minutes. Seven minutes. Seven minutes. And that's why I am. Taking the fight does not go to a decision. Kind of a tale of two fighters here. Baralho, six of his last eight, have gone to a decision. There's a world where he just like survives the barrage of Abis

and then dominates for the last half of the fight and gets a decision win. I understand that. There's a few of these bets that I'm going into this weekend. I actually don't. I've seen a few people being like love Sal Paolo from a betting perspective. Don't, I don't love it. I feel like I'm kind of playing a minefield. You know, like there's a world where I'm losing.

But when it comes to the fight itself, the way that Abis comes in, push his pace, can finish, can be finished. I mean, 13 of his last 15 didn't even see a third round. Like he's almost always hitting the under two and a half. A lot of those, he's hitting the under one and a half. Suspect cardio. And then on the flip side brawl, I know he doesn't get a ton of finishes. But we've seen him on several occasions in the UFC. He has an ability to dominate fights.

And he does have a finishing capability. And if Avis is just completely gassed out, I would not be surprised. if Baralo can get the finish late. So I think it could be Magamato Verli. I think it could be Barolo late. So bite doesn't go to a decision. That's the play for me. I like that.

And that's a well reason. I'm ultimately sticking away on this one. Don't blame you. I kind of looked at Barrio inside the distance for a lot of the same things you're saying, but his lack of finishes really does sort of concern me. I don't even know really what to make of the Avis. Sean Strickland fight.

It was so weird in the moment and then how it played out. And then afterwards, maybe Sean Strickland is way better than we think. Like, just too many question marks. And that's why, like, this fight sort of is indicative of, I don't love betting on this card. There are a lot of these fights have a lot of questions, got a lot of questions. I'm not really sure of some of the spots. Despite the fact that most of the fighters on it, like, are pretty well-known commodities. We've got a lot of footage out there to study.

It's just one of those where either the odds aren't not appealing or, like this one, I can't feel confident either side. So it's taking away on this one. I like it. I like it. Let's keep it rolling on the main card. Rodolfo Vieira taking on Armin, Petrosian. Right now you can get Petrosian minus 112.

Vieira minus 108. Go ahead and grab your coin. Give it a flip. See where it lands. I mean, it's actually kind of similar to the last fight that we talked about. I think Vieira is live as hell, especially in that first round and early on in the fight. But as it progresses, I feel like Petrosian is going to have the advantages, and I feel like he'll be more alive. I could see a finish here.

But ultimately, I am staying away from this one. This one, I just, I don't know. I mean, Vieira could just come in, take him down, choke him out, or Petrosian avoids that, survives, and either gets a finish or a close decision when. I just don't know what's going to happen. respect it uh i like you wasn't sure so i threw it to the robots and you chat gpt of the week con of bucks on a bit of a bit of a cooler right now two in a row have missed for chat gpt so a lot of heat on the robot a lot of heat on the robot i mean we're still 12 and seven uh lifetime with it

still still right more far more often but this is a pivotal one 12 and 8 versus 13 and 7 feels different. So a true coin flip, and I thought this was ideal. Here's what Chat GPT has to say. In the second round, Petrosian show, actually this might be the first round. I cut off the round part of this. I'm not sure. Petrojan showcases exceptional moitail lands, powerful kicks and precise punches, but Vieira remains composed. Weather's the storm, looks for an opening, manages to secure a clinch and execute a beautiful trip takedown, getting the fight to the ground. Once on the map, Vieira swiftly transitions the dominant position, secures an arm. triangle choke with his world-class BJJ skills on full display.

Fierre tightens his grip and Petrosian has no choice but to tap out submitting in the first round. So, chat GPT, bet of the week, Hadolfo Vieira, the multiple time, infinite number of world jiu-jitsu champion, he's going to put those skills on display. That would not shock me at all. I'd be like, yeah, sure. Of course he did. Either that's going to happen or he's going to gas himself out.

and lose a tepid point decision. But the robots have spoken. Chat GPT. We're getting back on track this week, kind of burks. Let's go. Let's keep it rolling. Last fight on the main card, Ishmael Bonfim, the other Bonfim, brother.

I think we know what you're going to do here, taking on Vince from hell pie shell, the aged veteran coming in at 40 years old, is a big underdog, plus 390. Ishmael Bonfeme. minus 520. We know you're doing it. I am also doing it.

I will be using Ishmael Bonfeme as a parlay piece. Benoit Saint-Denie, I mean, I know he looked great, but man, that loss is going to age well because Bonfeme is an absolute beast. BST is a monster. I think Ishmael bounces back here. I think this is a good fight for him to bounce back. I mean, we haven't seen Paishell in a year and a half, where, I mean, Mark Madsen had a decent amount of success against the dude at home.

Bonfine coming off a loss. I feel like this is a big bounce back spot for him. Don't know if he finishes him. Bachel's tough. But, yeah, I think he gets it done. I agree. I don't love the price, if I'm being honest. I think both Bonfine brothers are maybe a touch higher than I'm comfortable with.

But a gimmick is a gimmick. The Bonfine Brothers parlay hit. We're going to keep riding it as long as they're on a card together. I'll be betting them together. That's just the way this is going to go. One thing I will say, Bonfine, four losses by submission. Pichel wins by submission?

Zero. So, yeah, I mean, how could he lose then? He only loses by submission. Can't lose. And Pachel doesn't win by submission. Can't be done. It's a done deal. It's a guarantee.

A guarantee if I have ever seen one. That was short. That was brief. That was the main card. Let's move on to the pre-list. these are going to be short and brief from my perspective as well. Sounds good to me. Elves Brenner versus Esteban Rebovich.

Big Marcel tweeted that this fight is in question. It was taken off the ESPN page. It was taking off UFC stats. It's still on UFC.com. So yeah, just keep an eye on that bad boy. You know, nothing confirmed, of course. But right now, Elves Brenner is the favorite minus 155, Rebovich plus 130. I mean, is this just the dog fight of the day?

I mean, these are just two dogs going at it. Neither dude ever been finished. We've seen them in wars. A comeback on Garam by Brenner. Unbelievable. I mean, it was absolutely unbelievable just a couple months ago. Killed my parley. That was tight.

And then obviously, Tukov also, he killed my parley there eight months ago. So, yeah, elves parley killer Brenner is his name. I will not be betting against them. But with the fight in this weird questionable thing, and that could all just be rumors. I'll just stay away for now. I think that's reasonable. Kind of a new, a first is about to happen, Connor Birx, because I wanted to bet Estimaruvic. I was like, he's kind of my boy.

I got a bit of a soft spot for him, watched him fight way back, just kind of took a liking to him. Ellsbrinner making a habit of kind of overcoming a lot of adversity. A habit of it. Mounted to be a favorite. I don't know how he's going to do when he's a big favorite coming into not a big favorite, but you know a favorite. I mean, how do you get up at 4 a.m. in Silk Sheets. How do you get up as a favorite if you're Elvis Brenner? You tell me, I don't know. Maybe he needs to be an underdog to have the success he's had. Wouldn't have had it. I was ready. But I wasn't sure I thought about it. I said,

you know what we should ask the eight ball. Let's ask the eight ball. Let's go. Wonderful magic eight ball. It's right here. You can see it Connor. It's still still doing the thing. The eight ball, by the way, way, the eight ball was on the one of the fights, whatever the fight was, the Lacerda fight that got canceled for the last event we covered. Shut up. A ball did not get a play there, but I was like, eight ball, should I bet on Estimar Rivich as an underdog against, you know, the, the underdog killer, Els Brenner.

And it said to me, very doubtful. Very doubtful. So I shouldn't do it. So what we've done, we haven't bet. Okay. We're recording this for posterity. We want to find out if Riebevich wins, then the eight ball gave us some bad advice. But if Riebovich loses, then the eight ball knew what it was talking about. So we'll keep track of that moving forward as we accumulate more data on the eight ball's capabilities. It's almost like a pick rather than a bet there. Pretty much.

Yeah, you got to appreciate that from the eight ball. Shout out to the magic eight ball. What did you say the record was? The record on the eight ball is one and a two right now, but the one was a plus 450. Still plenty of room. So plus money. Plenty of room to bounce back from that. It's early.

Small sample size. Got to have a lot of data points. Let's keep it rolling. Bansom weight out. Daniel Marcos taking on Victor Hugo. I mean, the records on this are insane. 15 and 0 for Daniel Marcos, 24 and 4 for Victor Hugo right now. Marcos, big time favorite, minus 250.

Hugo coming back at plus 205. If Marcos doesn't get taken down and submitted, he's probably going to win the fight. I concur with this assessment. Like crazy in saying that? No, I concur with this assessment of the fight. I mean, if you just look at it, just like the last wins for Hugo are kneebar, heel hook,

leg injury. Didn't watch that tape, but I wouldn't be surprised if he just ripped the dude's leg. Got another heel hook, an arm triangle choke. I mean, guys got a plethora of submissions that he can go for. I'm staying away from this one. Do you fight win streak for the man? It's not doing too bad.

It's not bad. I think Hugo by sub is like a pretty big number. I'm not going to lie to, uh, what's come down hefty. Open plus 500 now down to plus 325. Plus 500 wouldn't have been a bad show. That's come down a little bit. Yeah, come down quite a bit.

I'm staying away. Any play for you on this one? No, uh, exactly this. I mean, UFC debut looked pretty good on the contender series, obviously, but Daniel Marcos has been, I mean, undefeated. and it has been decently impressive. Nothing to sneeze at getting a win by hooker by crook over Davy Grant.

So just passing. Passing. Let's keep it rolling. Welterweight bout Renat, Fakhrettonov, taking on Elizi, Celeski, Dos Santos. And right now, Renat, one of the bigger favorites on the car coming in minus 360. Dos Santos coming back at plus 285. Yeah, I mean, this is probably we're not tough its test.

I mean, that feels easy. Going into the away territory taking on a season vet of the game, but I ain't going against them. That ain't happening. I saw someone say they were like, this is his toughest test. He's never been more than like a plus 250 in the UFC. How's he past minus three? Or hasn't been worse than minus 250. How's he a minus 350?

Because he's looked like a minus 10,000 in all three of his fights. hasn't lost a round yet. Had seven rounds. Three of those were 10-8s, and another one was a first-round finish over Kevin Lee. Is that good? Yeah, and in his first two fights against Brian Battle and Andreas Mikhalidis,

he racked up like 27 minutes of control time in 30 minutes. Like, he's relentless. He has insane top control. 22 and 2. I know his comp before the UFC wasn't great, but like, I ain't out in the dude. I ain't doubt in the dude. I ain't out.

I fought Eric Spicely before coming in the UFC. A couple of other, not all of its great. He's not an Eagle FC guy, is he? No. No, good. He's a U.A.E. Warrior's guy, I think. I'm excited for the doc on whatever happened to Eagle FC. I bet on Eagle FC a few times.

We'll get to work on that for you. Shout out. Shout out. Not only did he fight Eric Spicely. He knocked Eric Spicely out in 55 seconds. In like a minute. Yeah. Killed him.

So, yeah, I mean, I've been sitting on it for about a week. I took him straight up minus 250. probably should have just thrown Jailton in that bad boy too but yeah I'm just riding a single heavy single but I I've bet on him a couple times before but against them not fun betting against them no terrible choice uh yeah I think guys really good I think he's one of the top 15 welter weights in the world

I think EZD is a good fighter good quality scrapper can can make hay but no easy easy money maybe not easy money Maybe not easy money, but this will be the toughest fight for him, but I think we're not going to pass this pretty comfortably. I've got him in the other parley I have, aside from the Albrezzo parlay, which, of course, I will be taking for one single dollar to win 880 of them. But aside from that, I've got Farquedinov in a parlay with one more thing yet to come. Wow, looking forward to this one.

Let's keep it rolling. To a light heavy. It's just chalky shit. I love it. Love chalk. Sign me the fuck up. Light heavyweight bout, Vitor Petrino taking it on the surging. The resurgents of the surging. Modestis Bukowskis, he is now riding a four-fight win streak took out the ever tough. Didn't see that coming. Took out the ever-tuff Zach Pauga last time. out, but he is once again being doubted as an underdog against Big Vitor plus 180 for Modestis, Vitor minus 218. Yeah, I'm doubted Modestis. I took old Vitor minus 193.

He's at home. I think he's got the better cardio. Think he's more active. Think he's got more past the victory. He can mix in the takedowns. Modestis has yet to land a takedown in the UFC. I think there's just more avenue. news for them. I think there's a decent amount to like in this matchup.

I think Vito Petrino is going to win. I think I didn't care enough to bet on this fight at minus 220. Shout out. I'm really trying to avoid betting on fighters who have less than 10 fights. That's the smartest decision you could ever make. I think I'm getting myself into trouble by betting on some of these guys. So I'm just like, he's going to win, but I'll just watch it. I don't need to have a bet down. It's a great move. It's a great move because I have another bet on a fighter with less than 10 fights on this very long? Got a few options left still to come. Let's keep it rolling. Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget online casino is live. Bringing Vegas style excitement and a world-class

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19 and over. Physically present in Ontario. Eligibility restrictions apply. See golden nuggettcasino.com for details. Please play responsibly. Strawway bout. Denise Goams, my hero from earlier this year, got a knockout in 20 seconds as an absolutely massive underdog

against Yasmin, Yarauega. She's taking it on Angela Hill. Pretty big step up in competition for her, but she is the favorite. The Nisi is a minus 125, Angela Hill, coming back at plus 105. Your thoughts? So I briefly flirted with the idea of betting on Angela Hell's an underdog, and then I was like, I should not do that. I don't need to bet on Denise Homes, by the way, you know, in this scenario that I'm crafting.

But Angela Hill, I mean, just getting old, fought a ton, a lot of mileage. Nisi Gomes really young, has shown some flashes here. Don't need to do that. So instead I looked at it and I was like, Deniseie Gomes Young shows some flashes might win. But why don't we just take the over, the over two and a half minus like 300 for that? Angela Hill, like every other fight she has goes the distance. And she has never, I repeat, never been finished with strike.

She's been submitted twice, but, you know, you fight McKinsey Dern and McKinsey Dern can't tap you out. I don't think Denise Goem's going to be the one to do it. So taking the over, that's the other leg of the parley with Fakhredinov comes out to minus 135 for those two legs together. She also ate some insane shots in that McKenzie Dern fight. She's tough as nails. Insanely durable. Honestly, I really, like, watching the tape, I feel like that's Goam's biggest advantage here is just. like that landing a massive power shot.

But I don't know if she's going to be able to put Angela Hill out. I mean, if you look at the people that Angela Hill has been fighting, I mean. Killers. Yeah, dude. I mean, this feels like a step back. Like, I mean, she's got a one over loopie for God six. Like, fought Amanda Lemosch to a split decision. You know, been in there with Tisha Torres, Emily Dakota, Fierna Gengi Roba, you know, shout out

to Ashley Yoder as well. I mean, you got to throw that one out there. I did. I took a shot on Angela Hill as an underdog. Oh, no, I regret not having the ball. No, I just like, yeah, she's old, but like she just fights people ridiculously close. And you're talking to front of this is Denise Gould's fanboy. I mean, when she knocked out Yasmin, just a few short months ago, I absolutely lost it.

I mean, it was one of the best bets I've ever cashed. Plus 350 disrespectful to my girl. But yeah, I mean, now it kind of feels disrespectful in the way of, Angela Hill. I mean, we saw we saw Goams just like straight up out, grappled pillar to post. Luma Luke Boone me. I think Angela Hill's

got some avenues for success. Gomes gets hit as well. Angela Hill far more experienced. This isn't a wildly massive confidence play. I will tell you that much. What did you get her at? Plus 128. I think you can get like plus 117 right now.

So it hadn't moved that much. Hadn't move that much. Yeah. I wish I'd done it. We could have been howling, just wolf packing it up. Howling. Well, when Angel Hill gets knocked out for the first time on Saturday over the two and a half, so late in the third round, I don't think you'll regret it. Let's keep it rolling.

Another straw weight bout. Montserrat Ruiz taking on Edward Amora. A big one here. This is the one, the one we all wanted. That's what we've been saying. And the UFC delivered. The UFC always wins. you have to remember that.

Eduardo, Mora, coming in, minus 5.50. Montserrat Ruiz coming back at plus 410. Yeah, I think Moore's just going to crush her straight up. Six inches taller, six inches of reach, more dangerous fighter. Ruiz really just doesn't have much to offer. Been knocked out in her last two fights. Don't know how, like, UFC caliber she is. seems like she only really has success with smaller straw weights

and yet this fight is happening on it i mean you know i guess you need set up fights more is getting one so yeah there's nothing to add to this like this is the reason the odds here have more is minus 600 or whatever she's just going to crush her yeah uh i thought about playing more inside the distance but man i don't like doing inside the distance at straw weight that is just that feels dangerous. I'm just going to say it, not just straw weight women's in my period. I just feel like I've paid several times where it felt like like, I mean, just most

recently, even at the highest level, Zhang, like that one inside the business was brutal for you. Like, fuck, man. Can we get a finish here? But yeah, I just having a parlay. It's Jelton, Ishmael and, and, uh, Edwarda, you know what I mean? I didn't have it. Yeah, didn't that, Gabe?

Because I thought we were going to do the whole, you know, Nicholas Dolby Brazilian kill. Moving on, you know, we'll move on to the first fight of the evening, the last fight for us. The fight that will ruin the Brazil parley before it even gets off the ground. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Cal-Fernandez debuting that's going to start off the parlay, taking on, I think, 12 fight UFC's, 14 UFC fights for the man, Mark D.KC.

seven and seven in those. D. Casey right now, the favorite. Minus 142, Fernandez, coming back at plus 120. I'm on Bone Crusher. Guys made me pay before that. Michael Johnson fight was a sight to behold, especially with how sure he was

that he was that he won, but... I forgot that. I just remember that fight because I was on Johnson, but I forgot that he was like, I won. What are you talking about? Not just like one? Like, as they were announcing it, they were like 30, 27, and he's just like, yeah. let's go got another dove

and they're like 3027 Michael Johnson and he like was in disbelief despite the entire arena knowing that he lost the fight

yeah I think like use the wrestling use the cardio use the experience use the competition edge I know those aren't tangible

things but just get it done Mark I'll say this right now Mark D.C. He loses this fight officially done with the case done you're officially done done done lose this one i'm never betting bone crusher again ever but i mean you know i just got back from england got to support my englishman

hey i uh i respect that i i mean i'll be pulling pulling for fernandez just because you know brazil par like god do um it looks good getting off the bus say that about him looks real good getting off the bus. I've watched some LFA fights. He seems okay, but it's hard to judge too much on those LFA performances. So obviously the biggest test of his career will in no way be surprising if Chikizi wrestles him, you know, kickbox him some, mixes the martial arts and comes away with actually a decision win instead of a delusional.

I think I won this fight. We shall see. You know, you got to be supporting Fernandez. he's the he's a man of aldo the aldo lineage i'm always supporting men of aldo that's your guys is this our shortest episode ever i mean uh we've had a couple of the fight night cards recently have been on the breezier end we're starting to really develop a rhythm for cruising through the undercard fights yeah especially on like a card like this i i am looking forward to this card i think there's a lot of really fun fights on it yeah but just from a betting perspective i'm not in love with it it's just one of those cards

where like, you know, going into it, I'm like, yeah, could be a good week, could be, you know, minus five and a half units. I mean, hopefully not. You're getting so close to that threshold. Oh, my God, I just need one winning week. My picks, Mark D.K.C. Money line, Angela Hill, money line. Vitor Petrino money line. Renot-Fakratanov money line.

Baralo Magamato fight does not go to a decision. Nassimento. May's fight does not go to a decision. Nicholas Dalby, Moneyline. Small, small sprinkle. And then I think I'm going to do like a Jailton Almeada round one just because I got to support the kid. And then Parleys, Eduardo Amora, Ishmael Bonfim, Jelta, heavy. And then a nice plus 564, big Brazilian favorite parlay, Eduardo Amora, Victor Petrino, Ishmael Bonfim,

Kyle Barajou, Rodrigo Nassimto, Gabe Bonfam and Jelton. Almeda. I'm keeping it real tidy this week. Derek Lewis by K.O. plus 400, Nassimito by Sousel, plus 2,25. Adolfo Villano. I actually got him at plus money instead of the minus one-tens odds that are out there.

I got it at plus 105. And then two, well, three parley is the Bombin brother parley. Fakhardinov parley with Hill and Gomes over two and a half. And then the big Brazil parley, 13 fights up plus 80,000 and some change if we get there.

If we get there, this show is over. I'll be taking my $800 and retiring with it. settling down in a nice cottage in the countryside. That would go a long way towards getting me back from the Valentina Shvchenko and Pleasantist at the start of the year. That'd be tight. That'd be tight, yeah.

I think I'm going to go a full unit on the Brazilian big favorite parlay just because I'm cool with being hurt. I'm cool with being hurt. That's what a great way to end the show today. I'm cool with being hurt. Honestly, if I get to a hundred unit. That's a jailist story right there. That's the title of the jail.

this autobiography. I'm cool with being hurt. That's the name of the book. Yeah, if I get to 100 units, we might not be here next week just because, I mean, that's retirement type stuff. I don't understand. I mean, this show will go on because I'll have to keep doing it. But if you want to retire, we'll, uh...

Right. We have to keep doing it. We have to, you know, keep the sponsors going and the lights on in the building. It's got to keep, keep paying those bills, man. unless I hit the big Brazil parlorath and the bills are paid forever so we're fine. All right.

That's that. No bets barred this edition. UFC Sao Paulo. It's next week. Next week. Something coming up here, Conner? Something coming up. UFC 2.95.

The promotion comes to my city. MSG. I can actually see MSG out my window. You're not going to go, are you? Right now. You're going to be watching. the party in watch partying. Doing the watch party, but I'm not going to lie to you.

That's not the reason I'm not going. It's because the prices are astronomical. I believe that. And I want to go as a fan. We could do media. We could do media. Watch party at the arena with the steam, Mr. Mike Keck. That's how we're going to be cooking.

But yeah, it should be a good weekend. Absolutely jazzed. Going to be a great card. I mean, if you're not excited, the card, just go back and look at the co-main and main event. That's just why it's all you got to do. We don't even need to talk about anything else. Diego Lopez, you know, the streets will always be riding for Diego Lopez, know that. Alasanda knee, Matt Frivolos a banger.

Like actually, though, it is an absolute banger. It's like, that's like one of those fights where it's just like not even worried about jinks in it because that one's going to be a banger. That one is guaranteed. That one is guaranteed. That's a fight that's such a banger, I may not even bet it. Just so I can fully enjoy the bangorness of it. I'm probably just going to take fight. Doesn't go to a decision or like an under or whatever

because it's just going to be Bank City. McKenzie Dern, if that interests you? Sure. That would interest me, not with her opponent. But that's for next week. Connor, we get into that next week. A little Tabitha Ricci, a little baby shark, if that's what you're all about.

A little loopie. Kind of love loopie getting after it. That's for next week, though. And we'll talk to you then, boys. NYC, New York, New York. I'm so excited. I need to do the thing. It's going to be what's up.

Let's go. You're for Yuri? I'm not sure where I am on a choice, but at the beginning of every year, me and Sheenow Shadi do a predictions contest to predict three new champions by the end of the year. And right now, the only way we don't go 0 for six is if Uri wins. And then I will win because Yuri was my selection. So let's go.

Let's go. We need to do the damn thing. I think I'm cheering for Poetan. Love both guys. Love both guys. I think Poetton probably beats him. That's my gut reaction before I've looked at, you know, done the breakdowns. But comane, though, you know where I am.

As a Manchester man, you know where my money will be in the Comane event. That's what's up. It's going to be an absolute cracker. But next week, Tommy Espino. See you next week. See you next week. Love me all.