MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Finding Value In A Triple-Header Weekend | UFC Vegas 57, PFL 5, and Bellator 282 Best Bets

Episode Date: June 22, 2022

Conner Burks returns to the No Bets Barred podcast after his European vacation — and he comes back just in time, as there's an MMA triple-header this weekend for the boys to break down between events from the UFC, PFL, and Bellator. Conner and co-host Jed Meshew are also joined by gambling neophyte Alexander K. Lee, who recaps his first foray into MMA betting, and laments the judging at UFC Austin that cost him a winning weekend. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Alexander K. Lee: @AlexanderKLee Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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trauma at other people? I don't even know how to answer that question. Allison After Nexium from CBC's Uncover is available now on Spotify. To the Vox Media Podcast Network. Going on, y'all. I am back after a hiatus away from the States. But more importantly, We are back this week. Another edition of No Bettsar. That's right. Let's go. We will be breaking down UFC Vegas 57.

It's Rukian versus Gamrod. We've also got A.K. Lee with us who replaced me last week. I'm sure he did a much better job than me. We're trying to work him into the betting game. He's still got money left in his draft king's account. So that means he has to continue betting. But we've got him alongside to recap the picks from last week. How are we doing, guys?

I'm so excited that you're back. I've felt. I felt abandoned. I felt lost. You were gallivanting around the world in France and countries unknown. He's so cultured. In the trenches taking grenades. That's where you left me, Connor.

And so I had no choice but to bring A.K. on and try and convert him to the ways of the gambling. The gambling cult. AK, your first, well, I guess your second event since you sneakily bet on the one prior. For the show. For the show. For the show. For the show. For the show.

But your first event, you know, with a guiding hand with a little bit of help, are you, are you a convert now? Have we done it? Because I know how you did, but it's not about how you did. We say it all the time. Betting is gambling is fun. It's supposed to be fun. It's obviously more fun if you win.

But did you feel alive this weekend as watching the fights with your hard-earned cash down? The methodology fascinated me that you, as you were breaking up. it down with me on the show. And I wasn't the only one, by the way, Jed, I think the one benefit of having a neophyte, like myself on was, like, we got at least one or two comments that were like, like, people who were, I think, like, somewhat casual betters. And they were like, oh, it was great to hear, like, Jed kind of have someone to explain this step to and, like, bounce it off up. Because you guys are hardcore gambling guys. I got a lot of that. I had a lot of people reach out to me with, with that sort of thing, which is great. It was an unintended

side effect. It was not at all the point or purpose. I was really just trying to corrupt you as a person. But, you know, I'm happy that some other people who, you know, are new to this or or not as experience as Connor and I could maybe learn a few things and certainly enjoy your ride. Yeah, you may have dragged some other unfortunate souls into it. There may be some serious collateral damage here. But I will just say, yeah, so anyone who wasn't, you know, necessarily keeping track of kind of how you walked me through how to bet a card like this, where did I go? Well, first of all, I went nuts on the PFL. You said never bet. We bet vibes. We bet vise, which paid off with Mr. Joaquin Buckley.

We had him up against the cat thrower, Albert Dariyev, and I was kind of like, is this a good idea? And you were like, you're like, you can't throw. I listen, I don't like, I don't want to tell him the cat abuser, but. Just so we're clear, the two people that you bet vibes on in this past card, because you just bet against the bad, the baddies. Mr. Adrian Yannes and Mr. Walking Buckley, they both cash tickets, baby. So Vibler is a dog, too. He was. Luckily as a dog. Is it strong, I'm just saying really strong, strong showing for the vibes last week.

It was. And I'm also a big fan of Gregory Rodriguez. So it was, you know, you told me just parlay him and Yanaz. It's like if you like them and you feel good about them, parlay them. So that one hit, that was nice. And that was it. Everything else was disastrous. Only because Chrisley's stupid. I'm sure you guys will dig into that more.

But I will say, yes, Chrisley, I think screwed a lot of us. If he just scores that round four properly, I think. I think a lot of us would have come out in the, I mean, I would have come on the plus. I'm sure you guys still did. You guys have all kinds of crazy betting arrangements to, you know, make sure you're always coming ahead. And so you can make your globe trot in Conner's case. But it was stressful. It was stressful.

Like, I just had Robocop Rodriguez by submission. So when he was pounding on, who is he? Marquez, I'm like, just take his neck. Take his neck. Like he was, and for one moment, he took his back. One moment, Jay, he took his back. And he's like, no, I love punching. I love punching.

too much. He's like, I'm a multiple time world jujitsu champion. I've done that. Like, I know what it's like to win jujitsu competitions, but I love punching people now. And I'm like there's so many times where I felt like he could have submitted him. And I'm sure you guys have easily won that fight by submission. It was a good bet that didn't cash. Because a plus 350, I still think if you gave me that bet, that same run that fight back tomorrow, I'm still taking that bet at those odds every time. Because it wasn't like he couldn't have done it. He chose a different route. Yeah. Darren Wynn was insane. I probably, I should not have gone. But I mean, whatever, I read a lot underdog pick, whatever. But that immediately, within the first

30 seconds, you're like, yeah, this isn't. Yeah. It's instantaneous. See, but no, that's one of the that's, that's a good bet because you just know immediately that you can tear up that ticket. No stress. Yeah, that is true. The stress is completely eliminated. Yeah, I had, I had just landed in the airport. I had haze and a parlay in that one. And I just checked Twitter quickly. I couldn't get the stream up. And I just saw just tweet after tweet people being like, what is Duran Wynn's game plan? Like, what is he doing here?

Like, this is disastrous. Like, they need to stop the fight. His game plan was to get elbowed in the head a bunch of parents. Did you all see the breakdown he did of his own fight? Oh, my God. Tremendous. Substantially better effort put into that than in his fight. And honestly, just great.

At least if you're going to physically take it on the chin, at least be able to spiritually take it on the chin as well. So props to you, Duranwin, because that is legitimately hilarious content. He's a thoughtful guy. Would bet on him again. He's a thoughtful guy. I like the viz from it.

And then the other thing besides the main event, you told me again, never parlay underdogs, but I just thought it'd be funny to throw $5 and like all these crazy underdogs in the PLFL card. All of them lost. Every single one. Oxalus,

Bruce Soto and Manfio. One of them hit, though. One of them hit, if someone had bet on Dilan Monty. And he was like a 500, I think, plus 500, something like that. Oh, he was up there. Yeah, because he did so poorly in his people.

He felt all just get pretty high. Hey, I'm just saying you guys got a card this, what this Friday? Yeah, this Friday. I haven't looked at the odds yet. I'm sure you're going to be there, Jed. Oh, you will be there. The next two PFLs are in the A. Wasn't the last one as well, right?

I may go to Media Day tomorrow. It was, but I was out of town. Now, I was unable to attend. I want to clarify again. I don't want to gamble on M.A. And after I'm done with this little experiment, I never will again. And I don't encourageful to do it. But did you guys see what happened to this upcoming PFL card?

Yes, I did see that. I would love to get into that because I already had a parlay in on this PFL thing. And then they tweet out today, half the card has changed. Like, what is this? Dude, like, PFL has. So do they put out odds already or how does it work? So right now. So I missed this.

What changed? All right, dude. So, I mean, like, Dennis Goldstav and Ante Delizia both lost their fights. I had them in parlayes. It's just like completely new opponents. let me pull up the card right here. I mean, they just tweeted out, like, we're supposed to be excited about it. Like, they're just like, oh, six new fighters entering the PFL.

Like, they, like, switched around opponents. Like, I think Dennis Goldstov's opponent is still on the card. He's just, I think Sem K was his opponent. And now he's just finding someone new. And, like, they still haven't dropped the odds on it yet, but it's just like, the, like this, along with the pre-taped conspiracy thing. Like, it's just like, PFL, man. It's just like kind of, it's like kind of a joke. I'm so excited.

I had no idea. I saw Brendan Loney tweet something about an opponent change, but that was, I didn't realize that this was a broader thing. I just thought it was, oh, somebody fell in and fight week, okay? Yeah, so we got one Adams now fighting. Maurice Green's on the card now. Yes. Wow.

John Jones will be in the building to support him, apparently. John Jones says he will be there to support Maurice Green. so. Yeah, so they have, so we lost five fights, and it is only a 11 fight card. We lost, we didn't lose the fights, we lost five opponents. Yeah, yeah. I don't know. You guys can, but I will say now, if I bet on PFL, right, I will just bet on individual

dogs, right? Jed, that would be your advice, right? Not trying. Oh, my God, always bet on never parlay underdogs. The last thing I'll say about this past weekend. Unless you're doing exactly what you did. The only time, it's not acceptable, but you're just throwing a, fiver for fun on a moon shot parley but if you had done them single you could be coming in here

being like dude i cashed a plus 500 on parley's like i'm a genius right yeah uh but it's okay because oh please just this past weekend so you guys can get rid of me uh last thing i'll say because i never want to talk about gambling ever again uh that that that count like that main events that had to be the definition of kind of like sweating out it like it was it felt close it felt like every like at no point was i watched the fight going like oh yeah this caterer bet's a sure thing. And then you get the split screen. You know it's going to be a split decision.

And then, like, I still felt good about it. I still felt like he would have gotten two of the judges. And then you see the scorecard. It's just the whole, I think I ran the whole gamut of the baiting on a main event emotions. That, that, underdog. Oh, he's a favorite.

It's where you feel stuff. Oh, yeah, Kato was the favorite. It was one of those fights where I was, like, halfway through round three, I was like, all right, let's pull up the live odds. Like, let's see what the books think of, like, where. we're at right now and it's just like after three rounds it's like minus 120 minus 110 i was like all right this isn't helping me at all in the fifth round like cater was like a minus 475 at one point in the fifth round so like like man i'm starting to feel better about this i think he got two four

five then you hear the split you're like i think he's still then enough didn't work out for us it i mean it's like you said at the beginning of the show i ended up like a half unit last weekend if cater gets gets the nod i end up like four four and a half units so it's just like just like just hurts, man. I don't like it. Jed, I don't like it. But you're going to be doing it forever because, as you said, you're going to do it as long as you have money and you're just never, you're going to win.

You're going to stay a winning better from the lessons we taught you. Okay. And this is now going to be a thing you do for the rest of your life. And you're welcome, okay, is basically, I'm going to enrich your fight experience and you're going to spend the next 30 years being like, man. Man, I'm so glad I put money on fights. It's so much more fun. Because if we have flipped it, if, if cater gets that split decision call, you're going crazy in your house, in your apartment, wherever.

You're like, yes, yes. You're coming on the show. You're like, I love this. Like, can I join full time? I'm, I'm in love with this. But that didn't happen. So this is we are in reality. And I am upset.

It didn't happen in that time. Okay. Plenty of opportunities for it to happen in the future. And hey, again, circling back to last week, KK, at least you, your main event bet, you know, sweating out a split wasn't for literally every dollar in your bank account like I was with Valentina Shepchenko. Oh my gosh, yes. Holy hell, that was, again, still the worst feeling I think I've ever had in fights sports. We haven't talked about this, Jed. I was thinking about you at 6.30 a.m.

And when I was watching the fights in my hotel in Florence, Italy, it comes like round four. I was like, Jed has to be freaking out right now. I was not in a good way. I was hopeful that things were the tide was turning, but especially those first two rounds like, oh, I'm so dead. I'm the deadest man that's ever lived. I can't do the show anymore because I'm going to have to go get a second and third job to afford rent for the next three months. Wow.

It was. Wow. It was that. It was the biggest single bet I've ever put down. Because I thought it was a sure thing. And I was right. I want to be extremely clear. I was right.

She won. You called that. She did not lose. She just made it much more stressful on me than it needed to be. But, you know. I live better at plus 120, so I felt pretty good about that. Oh, you should feel good about that. All right.

Okay. do you have we're happy that you are now on the gambling train do you have I mean you gave us a lock of the week last week Oh did you do you perhaps go I need one this week this week this week this week I'm kind of dry I need one here Yeah I don't have a lot of bets this week so if you have a lock of the week That will help boost our numbers because I Oh my Nirmagamatoff I am very low on locks with week this week a lock of the week gosh I I'm actually kind of looking forward to this card Just an enjoyment standpoint oh again I was also looking forward to not

talking about Betty again. But what are the odds? What are the odds for Shobot? I assume he's the favorite. He's sitting around like minus 400 right now. He is a very comfortable favorite. I feel good. I don't know.

It's kind of a boring lock. And last week's lock, do we say what last week's lock? I said last week's lock was the Jeremiah Wells and Corp. Jeremy Wells, Cort McGee. Which I also bet on. Would you? So we're clear. So we're clear.

AK brought that entirely unprompted. That was not part of the, the bets I was setting up. for him. He was just like, I also have a lock of the week. It's this one. I was like, that actually sounds pretty good. I thought that's what you do on these shows. It immediately lost. What are the chances? Yeah, the best advice is always being humble when discussing gambling.

Yeah, I, again, at the time, I was like, that's actually a really good bet. I ended up betting on it as well. It didn't pan out for me all that great. It was like, oh, that seems also very true. And then immediately lost. So do you have another great lock of the week for us before we cut you loose? I'll go, yeah, listen, can it be a lock if I don't think about it for more than five seconds?

Sure can. Oh, right. Chris Curtis. It's about the level of confidence. Chris Curtis. Let's go. He's going to knock out Hedolfo Veda. Ooh, so is the lock of the week just Chris Curtis,

or is it Chris Curtis by K.O.? Chris Curtis by K. Wow. Let's check the odds on that real quick. Chris Curtis. The odds are minus 125, So I would suggest to anyone betting that you actually just bet Chris Curtis because he's somewhere between minus 135 and minus 150.

He is minus 135 right now. Actually, you can get them at, you can snag him at bet MGM right now at minus 130, just five points short of minus 125. Yeah, that line is so close. Even though I agree, because I know this off just off top of my head because, spoiler, I also am betting Chris Curtis. It's one of the very few bets I have on this card. And I very much wanted to bet him by K.O.

And then I looked at it. It was like, there's almost no difference. So I'll just take the man straight at that line. So wise. So wise. I see, I don't know how these things work. Well, that's why we're here. Well, AK, we appreciate you coming on to recap your two-week betting experience.

Oh, magical. And I look forward to the many more with this robust draft king's account that you have now. It will only continue to grow. and we are very excited to follow this journey with you, buddy. So thanks for coming. Thank you for having me. And Connor, welcome back. Thank you, sir.

I appreciate it. Welcome back, Connor. Happy to be back. Happy to have heard about your experience, man. It sounded like, you know, it sounded like at the end of the day, did you have any fun? No. All right. No fun of that.

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All right, shout out to A.K. Lee, for joining us. Just glad to have them as a lifelong member of the betting community at this point. Let's get into it, though. Let's get into this week. Let's move on from betting experiences past and look to the future here with UFC Vegas, 57, Surukian Gamron. I just don't have that many betting experiences for the future. I was part of the reason I was excited to have AK is, look, my last week was very eventful this weekend. not so much honestly

I have I just have a few bets down and a parley that also touches the PFL I have one sorry the parley touches Bellator I have a bet on PFL and just I've got a few bets that

like I'm going to throw up there and see if maybe you maybe you can talk me into saying that all right let's pull the trigger just to do it but there's just so little interest for me from a betting perspective on this car. Some of these fights are great, but I personally just don't feel, we were texting about it before, you know, yesterday or whatever. It's really hard for me to put money on Josh Parisian

versus Lama Doe, you know? Like, how do you do that? We can get into that. I, I kid you not, I think Alan Bedou is going to win the fight. And I went, not once, but twice, put him in my bet slip and was about to pull the trigger on Alan Bidot. And then I was like, let me just go back one more time just to make sure I really want to do this. And I talk myself out of it both times. I'll dive more into why I did that when we break down that fight a little bit. But yeah, it's a good card. Like I'm looking forward to it.

I think there's a lot of pretty good talent on it. From a betting standpoint, though, I don't really love it, especially when you have a pay-per-view, possibly the biggest pay-per-view of the year just over the horizon waiting for you with plenty of spots that I like. I've already got quite a few bets in. next week. Yeah, I think we talked about this before 275, you know, with the pre-paper-view cards,

both, I think, intentionally, I think the UFC does set it up to some degree that they're front-loading pay-per-views with more of their name talent, and also just kind of feels, just vibes of, well, this is less exciting than we've got Israel, this and you're coming next weekend. Like, that's, that's a tension grabber. And as much as I love the main event here, the rest of this card, even though I think many of these fights are okay, it's just like, whatever, dude, let's just move on to 276 at this point. I'm in love with the main event and the co-main event beyond that, though. None of them I'm like insanely excited for it.

Like once someone gets their hand raised, then, you know, the title Eliminator, Josh Bresian versus Alamadot, I'm really going to get excited because the last two fights, I think. are super sick. Yeah, I really like the main card opener, too. Chris Curtis, you know, I mean, anytime Chris Curtis fights. I love that fight. Yeah, but like those, I'm totally with you. I think those are the three best fights on the card for sure. There are some other ones that I am, at least have some passing interest.

There's Omar and Magamette. I, my, my curiosity is peaked. I have curiosity. I don't, uh, what's, what's the quote from Django? Uh, You had my curiosity. Now you have my attention. I only have curiosity for Umar at the point in time.

This fight does not have my attention at the moment. All right. Well, uh, let's get into it. Let's dive right in. Well, obviously, you go through the main card, all our bets, and then we'll go through the prelim fights that we have bets on. We'll start off with the main event. It is a lightweight bout five rounds, which I am so excited for this one to be. Arm and Sarukian going up against Mateus Gamrod.

I mean, this is a fight, dude, and I'm glad that they made this, the main event if they were going to. Gamrot, former double champion KSW. I mean, he's a split decision away and you can make a serious argument that he won that fight against Garam from being undefeated right now. Surukian, absolute monster, 17 and 1 in his last 18, the loss coming to the potential next title challenger in Islam Makashv. Best lightweight in the world, baby, Islamakashv. Yeah, yeah, and that was his debut and he's just absolutely dominated sense. I mean, to be totally honest with you. He was also like 22 years old at that.

And that gave you two. He's only, what, 25 right now? Yeah. 25 years old? Yeah. I mean, yeah, I think 25. This dude is going to be, I think both these guys actually are going to be serious, you know, as we move on in the lightweight division. But for me, parlay piece, I'm going to side with Sarukian in this one.

I mean, just how dominant he has been since that lost is Lamakashv. Like, he's not just beating people. Like, he is dominating them. He's well-rounded. Great striking. Defensively sound. Obviously, the grappling. he's got excellent grounded pound.

I mean, size disadvantage doesn't really matter for him. I was on Joel Alvarez against him. And wow, he made me look like a dumb ass in that one. I mean, he just made me look stupid. I think he's going to be able to land the bigger shots here. You know, with the grappling exchanges, I think he'll be able to win. I think it'll probably go to decision and he gets it done either winning four or three rounds. And he gets his hand raised.

So I'm with you. I've got through Guinness of Barley piece. MMAfighting.com. great website fantastic website fantastic website

yeah Mike heck great guy at a great website he has been driving the arm on Surukian bandwagon for literal years he he in our ranking shows anytime I talk to him

anytime Surukin is about to fight he is on the soapbox shouting that this guy is going to be a lightweight champion that you know all the stuff we've already said and that a rematch with Islam Makhachev down the line, he thinks he's going to win.

And in a lot of respects, I think I agree with him. Like, this is one of, this is the super prospect right now for me, maybe in the entire sport, maybe one or two other guys that, that could jump up there in that conversation. But he is, I would be stunned if he never fought for a title. And I think he really does have an opportunity to win one down the road.

because of all the stuff we said At the same time I love Matush Gamrot I think Gamorot is an incredible fighter I have him He's in my top 15 at lightweight He might be in my top 12 This dude is really really good But this is just an unfortunate circumstance

For him Because he He's not an awful striker But he's not like a great one He's very limited But he's willing But he doesn't have a ton of craft to his game where his game revolves around getting the takedowns,

and Sarukin is just a monster, dude. Like, he is so... Islamakchev struggled taking Surukian down, again, when Surukin was only 22 years old, and then his UFC debut. Now, maybe to some extent you can say, well, Islam didn't know what he was dealing with. You know, they were a bit underprepared

for just how physically relevant Surukin would be, even being smaller. And sure, there's an argument there, but at the same time, like I don't, he is just a hard-nosed dude in that regard. I don't think Gamrod's going to be able to have a lot of sustained success scoring takedowns. And hell, even Islam found out like, even if you get takedowns, you can't keep this dude down. Like, he popped up so quickly in that fight.

And I think that that's it. This fight is going to be contested where Sarukin wants it. And I think he can take Gamrod down and we'll have more success in that regard. But I also just think he's a cleaner. better striker. So I've got him as a parlay piece. I can't decide if this is... The reason I don't have a prop bet here is I have no idea if this is going to go to a decision

if Sirukian can just kind of... We've never seen Surukin in five rounds before. I think his style will play really well to that added 10 minutes, but I want to see it before I can be like, yeah, he's going to get a late stoppage, especially over a guy's tough as Gamron. So give me Armand Saruki, and I've got him in the parlay as well. Yeah, right now over under sitting at four and a half, both of those, the over and the under are at minus 115. So the books don't really know how that one's going to go either.

I'm all right with not playing that. I'll just use them as a parlay piece here as well. When I was at the, I was at a wedding when I was in Italy, international wedding, a couple people from Armenia. Somehow my job came up and they were like, oh yeah, Arm and Sarukian. Like, yeah, we know he is. He's a beast. So yeah, local hometown hero. How could I go against them?

Can't. You just can't do it. I mean, the people know. The people know. The people know. You talk about vibes. I follow Armin on a, I follow Sarukian on IG. Oh, yeah?

Good vibes, man. Is he? Oh, good vibes. I like. He's got the social, he's got the social setup, bro. He's dropping videos like edited with music over him. He's doing good. I like to, I've, I'm in a place where I only want my serukian knowledge to come from

Mike Heck because he's such a cheerleader for him and was like, I don't need to know anything. If Mike doesn't tell it to me, the only thing I know. about this man is what I see in the cage. And it's working for me because I would have picked him just on vibes. Like, just been like, I don't know, Mike is so convinced this dude's the greatest fighter in the world that he's probably going to beat Matush Kamrat. And then I watched the tape and was like, oh, yeah, he's actually going to beat Matush Kamrat.

Yeah. I mean, Mike Heck, MMA fighting, Armin Sarukin Insider. So shout out to Mike. Great website. Great guy. We'll keep it rolling to the co-main event of the evening. it is a welterweight bout. Neil Magne doing again, stepping up against tough competition.

He's going against Shavkat, Rokmanov. Rockmanov right now sitting at minus 390. Magni coming back at plus 320. The over, two and a half is sitting at plus 105 under two and a half minus 135. So the parlay with Armin, hopefully it will still be alive. Leg number two will be Arminov. Leg number one will be Shavkat, Rockmanov. I just think when it comes.

Just a two leg parlay here? Just a two leg. Pays out minus 130. Yeah, I mean, it's, I understand, please continue. Yeah, I mean, it's a step up in competition for Shavcott. I mean, this is probably going to be his toughest test against Neil Magny. UFC veteran is like understating it. Dude's been around forever.

But I mean, he's just looked unstoppable. 15 ones, 15 finishes. Like the, I rewatch that Carlston Harris fight. I mean, just like the precision he had when going for the standing ground strikes to knock Carlson Harris out were just, I mean, I was. just like in awe, rewatching it. I remember when I watched it the first time, I was like, wow, this dude does not just like swing for the fences. Like he, he, like, he really aims when he's striking on these ground strikes. It's, it's insane. I mean, he can end the fight at any second. He can do

it by knockout. He can do it by submission. Half his wins are by knockout. Half his wins are by submission. He hasn't been fighting bums either. I mean, he's going up against guys with 20 plus fights, great records since he got to the UFC. I just think the only path to victory for Magny is likely by decision. He's not really the biggest finisher. And I just have a hard time thinking that 15 minutes in the cage with Shavkat, Raghmanov, he's not going to find an opportunity to finish the fight. And I think that's what he's going to do. I'll also be playing. Fight does not go the distance. Took that at minus 155. I was going to play Shavkat inside the distance, but Shavkat inside the distance was minus 155. So there was really no point in me playing that. I guess the books don't think Magny's going to get a finish

either. So, yeah, I'm on I'm on Shavkat Parley piece, finish up Armin, and fight does not go the distance. I mean, it's a minus 400 favorite, 15 and 0 15 finishes and you're giving me fight doesn't go to a decision at minus 155 just out of principle I had to take that.

Okay, so this is, this is a spot where I am I'm in trouble. Because my head says that Shavkat Rakmanov is a good parley piece. even at kind of an expensive price you have to get him out right now.

Because, I don't know, Michael Keesa, who I still am not convinced is very good as a welterweight. Even though he obviously is good, I still just can't get over the hump that he was like a moderate lightweight. I have the same issue with Gilbert Burns. Like he was an okay lightweight and then becomes a great welterweight. It still is very struggling for me. He was able to take Neil Magny down and just kind of control him on the ground. I think Shofcott can have a lot more success on the first. feet than Keisa did and replicate that success on the floor.

But my gut is just telling me looking at this. Oh, yeah, this is where Neil Magni just kind of derails a hype train because Shafka has so much behind him right now. I mean, there have been comparisons to Hamzaat, you know, because of the way he has coming and finished everybody and looked so good at this weight class. And I, for whatever reason, I can't quite, I believe in Shavka, I think he's, really good dude. I think this guy's going to be a top 10 guy for a long time.

This feels my gut is telling me that this is where one of those this is the last gasp of Neil Magny the incredible underdog appears because here's a little stat for you my guy. Neil Magny, 8 and 5 as an underdog. His career in the UFC

he has been an underdog 13 times and he keeps doing the damn thing. This is a man who is extremely comfortable in the position of being overlooked and just proving people wrong. And yes, he's about to turn 35, but he's riding a two-fight win streak in this. If he can just stuff takedowns and just compete on the feet, his volume, his cardio, the way his game works out, I think can have success.

So I don't have a bet down. I considered, like, I intuitively thought Rachmanov as a, as a parlay piece. And now I'm thinking about putting an underdog bet on. Magny. Just a vibes bet. A plus 300 vibes bet. I mean, I love like, we're letting our hair down. It's the summer. We got fight week next.

I mean, why not ride a, like I was, I was going through UFCStats.com. I'm doing it. The dude's got a million fights in the UFC. I was like, my God, this dude has been around forever. And like, he's got a lot of wins too. You just said it eight and five as an underdog. One of us comes out of a winner. You either lose, like what?

What are you going to put on a half unit? Like a point fours. I'll go all the way. I'll put a whole unit down. A whole unit on a magnet. Go for it. Why not? That's what I'm doing it.

I'm pulling the trigger right here on air. Plus three hundo. There's just, this is the exact fight that he, the Neal Magni is here for. He's the gatekeeper to the top 10. So if Shafka comes in and does the things he's been doing, that obviously the book you expect than this dude is real deal Holyfield as legit as it gets

but if he doesn't if Neal Magny does the thing that Neal Magnet does I won't be shocked and I'm look this is not with my head people this is not based on the tape because the tape says Shofcott's going to win this is pure vibes bet I'm going

with it Neal Magni plus 300 let's cash ticket oh it's dude I'm not even going to be mad because all these bets that I'm talking about I'm really not going that heavy on the parley is my biggest bet, but like I'll sacrifice the, I'll sacrifice the parley for a six. That's very selfish of you.

For a chill little plus 300 cashier for my boy. Like I'm, I'm cool with that. I love it. I love it actually. That is very self, very selfless of you. And I appreciate your support, man.

I don't, you know, and I can hype up the pod if you cash that. I mean, like this guy just called it, uh, plus 300. I mean,

yeah. Neil Magny do a Neil Magny thing. I will not be betting it. I believe in Shafcott, and I think he gets it done. But, I mean, yeah, you're in a great position because worse comes to worst. You're like, plus 300, dude, of court. Like, Shavcott, you're supposed to win. Like, great call, parlaying up, Shavcott Rockman off, the 15 and O guy with 15 finishes.

Great call. Like, the minus 360. Yeah, like, oh, congratulations, dude. Or you cash and you're just like, you parlayed shop, like, saw it from a mile away. Or even if Shavka, even if it's just a close fight, then I'll still feel good even if I lose. You know, I was like, oh, I had the right side of that. My money was down on the right odds.

It just wasn't a winning. Remember Homsah was minus 550 and was in a razor-thin close fight with Gilbert Burns. Just like two months ago. Easily. Yes. So, yeah, I don't blame you for it, man. I mean, Magny's a stud. He's like, what, 26 and 8 in his career?

He's comfortable with being an underdog. He's got a size advantage in this fight, too. I'm really excited for this one. These last two fights I'm going to be hyped for. There is no doubt about that. So, yeah, I'm parlaying it up. I got fight doesn't go the distance, which if you cast your Magny ticket, Magny by decision,

I mean, I'll just be in shambles over here on my couch. Oh, that's true. Actually, what I should do instead of betting Neil Magni is betting by decision. What are we getting that at? The man, I don't know, let's find out, because the man doesn't win by not decision. I didn't even think about that. That is a much better line,

but it's probably like... Plus 500 at some books. Plus... Yeah, plus 500, plus 525. I'm seeing it a couple of places. Yeah. Now we're talking. So, dear listeners,

instead of Neil Magne straight at plus 300, in case you guys didn't know, 16 of Magne's 26 career wins have been by decision. He has not finished a fight since 2018 against Craig White, a man who has no Wikipedia page. And so I'm going to go ahead and say that Shubh Kat Rahmanov is a better fighter than Craig White and can make it to the scorecards.

Magnin by decision at plus, you know, 500, that seems, that's a tasty line that I'm, I feel way better about the bet. At plus 300, I still was okay, plus 500 for this prop. That's, I'm very, I feel. very good at least about laying a full unit on that. I love it. I love it. If this catches, it's going to be electric. I will be wiping my tears, but there'll be, one I will be tears of sadness for my bankroll. The other I will be tears of joy for my guy, Jed, cashing a plus 500 against the hype train known as Shofcott.

That's what we're all about. We're all about positive vibes here, supporting each other. People helping people. Positive vibes. It's all about the vibes. All right, let's keep it moving. next fight up we've got amen's heavyweight bout title eliminated Josh parisian currently sitting at minus 105 going up against alan bedou going at minus 115 over under one and a half minus 180 for the over plus 145 for the under it's the parisian versus the frenchman uh my main question is just why is this on the main card like i they have such a love for for heavyweight fights Like these, I saw someone tweet that this could be a Belator prelim, but here it is sitting on a UFC main card.

Like, neither of these guys are ranked, they're not going to be ranked, they're not going to contend for a title. I just don't know why we have to have this on the main card. Like, I feel like, I feel like Morozov versus Hale Impaiva would fit better on the main card, but what do I know? Oh, I mean, it would for sure. We're talking about two just not very, very good. good fighters. And that's

the end because Parisian he is one and two in the UFC. That split decision win, you know, could have gone either way. And Bedou technically is oh, two and one, no contest, but he lost for Guguanasimento

who just popped. Yeah. Yeah. I'm sorry. Lost, lost isn't understand. He got obliterated by the Giacna Semento. Nassimeto was also on Ritalin. You know, like But he was very focused. He was extremely focused.

We saw how focused he was when he blew the doors off the Doe. So it's, I'm with you. This fight honestly would make a lot more sense if it was on the Paris card in a couple of months. Because, like, I don't really understand why it's not. Both because Beaudot obviously is French and it's just funny that Josh Perugian's name. You should put this fight on the UFC. Paris card in September. I don't.

Joe Silva would have 1,000% had this fight on that card. So I don't know what the hell Sean Shelby's done here. But I personally don't have a bet. I do have an almost bet if, just because like I said at the start of the show, I have so few

bets down. I put a few almost bets. Like things that maybe aren't the worst ideas. What's the almost bet coming to? It doesn't go to decision prop at minus 1.45. I don't want to be on either side of this because I don't want to lay my money on either man to succeed. My gut says Bodeau's probably going to win in part because I think he will want to win so he can

fight on you at UFC Paris in a couple of months and a loss here maybe maybe two rails at. But they're just two heavyweights who aren't very good. And so I have a feeling this might this won't this won't make it to the cards. I truly don't have any idea and it would be a dumb bet to make. But I was just, I was reaching. I was trying to find things that were enticing. And betting on heavyweights not to go to the decision is, is not a bad place to start.

Yeah, I put Alan Bedell in my bet slip twice. I really did do that. One time I even typed in the amount of money I was going to put on him. But like I just went back and like, I hope it was so much money. I hope you're going to put all the money. It was one unit. It was one unit. Or to win one unit.

But I mean, like, this guy is 0 and 3. in the UFC. Don't give me the O2 and one. Not something, though, riddlin, come on. Focus. So he's actually eight and four, and I went back and I was looking. Six of his wins are against fighters. Oh, yeah, that record. That record's tough, baby. Six of his wins are against fighters

that are, like, well under 500. Like, I'm talking like 13 and 22 type guys, and then three of them have zero wins. Two are O and one, and the other is 0, and 5. Like, this guy is beaten essentially no one. One of the guys was zero wins was a win

just before he signed with the UFC was there was one he had one bout between it and the UFC that's like that's a tough tough scene yeah so like I sat there and I was just thinking

we got UFC 276 next week I also have Bellator I have PFL I don't need to be betting on this so I am passing completely on this fight I think that's that's obviously the smart move I don't feel good about my props so I'm not putting it in, but if you would come in here with a really strong vibe, and then like, you know, these two dudes are going to swang and bang,

I would have said, all right, let's do it. You know, let's, let's have some fun. But this is, this is a fight. This is a fight that I want to bet on strictly because bad heavyweight MMA is hilarious. Yeah, I was going to say it'd be a hilarious thing to do. And it's a really fun way to have money down that you don't care about. But I can't, like I said, I can't even find a bet that, like, I even feel good about. So I think just the past year is the play.

Yeah, like I want to be hilarious and like we take fight doesn't go to a decision together. But then like if there's like a minute and a half left and round three and it's just like this is going to a decision, I'll be pretty upset with myself. Bad heavy weights can go to decisions very easily as well too. You know, they both get tired after five minutes and minutes. They just hold each other against the fence. And it's both the worst fight and a bad gambling outcome. That's a bad. That's a bad. combo. All right. So yeah, we'll keep it clean and we'll do no plays on this one. So we'll keep it riding with a lightweight bout. It is Diago Moisesz going up against Christos Gagos. Moises at minus 230. Yagos at plus 195. Current odds over under two and a half, over minus 135, under plus 105. This is another fight. I don't have anything on this one. I think Moises

gets it done. I really do. But just at those odds at minus 230, I don't really have any interesting and getting involved. Yeah, that's exactly my thoughts here. I am very close to wanting to get involved because I think Tiagra Moises says his really good fighter, frankly. I mean, you look at his record. He has a couple losses before the UFC.

It's been in the UFC not that long from a time period, but he has consistently fought two times a year. So he has racked up actually a number of fights in the organization. But all of his losses have come to top lightweights. like Neil Darius, Demiris, Izmogelov, Islamoakov, and then Joel Alvarez. Alvarez also missed weight for that bout too. So, like, talking about a dude who has fought, I mean, he's got wins over Bobby Green

out, Cheninas Michael Johnson. Like, those are good damn wins, too. This is a guy who's fought a lot of really impressive, like, it's been a really difficult lightweight run. And he's fared okay. And the kind of the biggest thing you can say on the other end of it is, Christos Diagos has he's also fought some good people i mean charles olivera granted before olivera became olivera arman surrucine in his last bout but he doesn't have the same wins uh that moises does

but i mean it's exactly what you said i 230's just a big number even though he's younger even though i think his game's better i think he has more opportunity to develop all that sort of stuff i just can't quite make that decision especially because um uh jaguar's training out of sanford sanford sanford has become a really really top shelf gym and that that always kind of gives me a little bit of okay i don't i mean ATT versus sanford like that is a very high level matchup and a lot of things could go wrong laying that big a number

even on a guy i think has a bright future like moises s does yeah i'm with you man i mean if i'm going on tapology if i'm going on the verdict app i'm going to pick moises s but as far as betting goes I'm not going to have anything there because I learned this past weekend. My two biggest bets, Dawkes and Cater, both loss. And like, when you're losing those pretty juiced up numbers, it hurts. It hurts a lot more than when you're losing the dogs. I wish you could have been on last weekend because when you sent me your bets and you had

Dawkins, I was like, ooh. I wish you would talk me out of it. I don't know about that one. Because I was with you on like, I didn't bet the Cater main event because I just, I didn't feel like I had a good read on it But I would have picked Cater and I do think Cater won obviously But the darkest one was like Last week I did a round robin with six

This 16 round robin three team part lane And Cater just missed making it Because I was like actually I'm not nearly as confident Because home home boy is really physical The dude who beat him I can't remember No no I'm sorry I wasn't talking Cater that

The leads in. It's like, that dude is just a physical, like, he's a physical fighter. And I think what I told A.K. at the time was my head wants to believe that Tarkas is going to win this. But I also can't help but think about Chris Tarkas and how he's not very good at fighting. Yeah, I wish I'd know. That makes, that influences my vibes on Kyle. Yeah. I just landed as soon as the card was starting.

and first thing I get on Twitter is the highlight of him getting knocked out. I was like, wow, I got it together. I had bookends last week. I started with a loss, went perfect on like six straight bets, and then ended with a loss with Cater. Yeah, two biggest bets to losers. So, yeah, I ended up like five and two on my bets, but only up a half unit because of the heavily juiced ones were my losses.

But anyway, we keep it rolling on this one. Next up, men's banter. wipe out. It is Umar and Armaghamedoff going up against Nate Maness. Magamadav minus 9,100 right now. Maness coming back at plus 625 current odds over one and a half, over minus 160, under plus 130. And this one, I do have a bet. Not really a most plus EV bet taking a specific prop at even money, but I am taking Umar by sub. I went back and watched that Maness versus Johnny Minos fight. Uh, I mean, Maness, dude, he was in serious, serious trouble in the first round, like he was literally saved by on the horn.

Munoz takes his back at one point, postures up, completely flattens him out. He is just wailing on him for like the last 30 seconds. It looked like it could have been stopped at any moment. Didn't get stopped. Gets out of the round. You could make a strong argument. I know there was a point deduction because Munoz just kept kicking him in the nuts. But you could still make the argument that that was either a draw or Munoz won that fight.

I mean, Minesh just, he struggled. gave up his back and just going back and watching tape on, Ramagamatov, like, the dude is just so technically sound and skilled, his striking the way he uses the kicks. Obviously, you know, his ability to use the question mark kick. Munoz also found success with kicks in that one. And just over the 15 minutes, the way that Munoz took his back, I just don't see how Umar does not take his back. He's able to take pretty much every once. He can do it in the blink of an eye. Four, I think is three straight wins are by rear naked choke. Four of his, last five or by rear naked choke.

So yeah, with a guy obviously juiced to oblivion, it's almost not even worth putting him in a parlay at this point. I felt like getting even odds on, in my opinion, his most likely outcome to win a fight, I will take that. I can't argue with anything you're

saying except I just don't want to be involved in this. Like I mentioned earlier, this fight has my curiosity. Everything you said about the Munoz's fight holds true. but Maness is pretty decent at avoiding takedowns for the most part, and we have just seen Umar Nomahmedov face a little resistance that I think by far the most likely scenario is he does just tackle him and sub him, but I could see Maness hanging on.

I could also see this becoming one of those things where, okay, against Johnny Munoz, Munoz has a specific game plan, he's really excels at taking the back, but like, you're still going to try and fight him in the way that your style goes, whereas Maness is going to just come into this and be like, all right, I need to fight specifically not to let Omar and Muromadov do his thing. And that then makes it very difficult. In some ways, it simplifies things. I always argued this with Habib.

Habib actually had one of the most, the easiest careers in that his fights were always identical. He was going to take the dude down and smash them, and the other guy was going to try and prevent it. And so the range of things he needed to prepare for was substantially smaller than like Frankie Edgar, who wants to mix the martial arts or whatever. So I think that's totally in play for Umar here. But I just at this number, at this odds, I don't have, I don't feel great whether Umar just pounds them out because again, Johnny Meun was was beating the hell out of Maness. Like it, there's so many variables. I don't feel any any kind of confident I'm passing on this fight. Yeah, I agree with you.

I mean, it could be, I had it at UFC London. It kept me from having a perfect night at UFC London. Takashi Sato goes in against Gunner Nelson. I had Gunner inside the distance. And it was just like Sato's game plan. Yeah, it was like Sato's game plan was like, I do not care the result of this fight as long it is me not getting submitted. Yep.

Like he just, like I think it was 30, 25. Like he just got pillar to post dominated. But it was just like, I will not get submitted in this fight. You just protected his neck the entire time. You're like, all right, you pound me out if you want to. And Gunner obviously didn't want to. So it was just, hey, you're just, I'm going to see the final scorecard here, baby. And like, that's a world where this could happen.

And so that's why I'm out. God, that was such a, like, promising bet to, like, Saddo's last three losses were by submission. I mean, he let Bilal Muhammad choke him out. Miguel Baez is like, oh man, and Gunner Nelson only, only ever wins by submission. I had so, I had just so much hope for that one. That was really a bummerer looking back on that one. Either way, Umar Nabatov by submission. Hopefully, I don't get the same fate as I faced with Gunner Nelson in that one,

taking that one at even odds. We'll keep it rolling. The final fight of the main card, it is a middleweight bout. Chris Curtis going up against Adolfo Vieira. Curtis at minus 140, Vieira, plus 120. Current odds over one and a half at plus 125, under one and a half minus 155. Chris Curtis, the favorite in a UFC fight. We finally see the days of him cashing dog tickets be over.

I know you have a play on this one, so I will let you take the floor. I do, but I'm excited because you, the way it sounded is that we might be at odds here. You may be on Vieira. I can't tell if I'm right or wrong, but I have Chris Curtis. I'm not. Actually, I'm hoping you talk me into Curtis because I've thought about playing a couple of times. Because, yeah, your eyes got wide when I said Chris Curtis earlier. I'm taking Chris Curtis for very simple reasons here.

It won't shock me if Rodolfo Vieira takes him down and submits him because Rodolfo Vieira is a multiple-time world champion in Brazilian jitsu. Like, that's the thing that he's good at. But Chris Curtis is a damn good wrestler in his own right. I mean, Phil Hawes was a Juko national champion, a wrestler of Iowa State after he got out of Juco, like this is a dude who can wrestle and had almost no success whatsoever against Chris Curtis in that regard.

And again, Chris Curtis came in his underdog, stuff takedowns and just sort of did the damn thing against Phil Hawes, you know, knocked him out inside the first round. And that's the thing for me here is Vieira, is not, he's not, you know, naked on the feet. Like he can do some stuff, but it's certainly not where he excels. But he, his gas tank can certainly be a question. And if he is going to be shooting deep takedowns from outside,

Chris Curtis is just stuffing him. That gas tank is just going to keep going down, going down. And Chris Curtis is incredibly violent. And so every time that Vieira doesn't succeed on a takedown, Chris Curtis is going to hurt him. and I just like that combination. Again, this is a bet I'm not hugely behind on. You know, I don't have a big stake in it just because one takedown is potentially death to it.

And that is, it's obviously a very scary proposition. But I just, I think he's going to be able to stop those takedowns. He knows what he has to do. He has to survive five minutes. He has to keep Fiera upright for five minutes and come that second round. I think this is his to lose. I think Chris Curtis is going to be prepared to do that. And like we talked with AK, I think he's going to win by knockout,

but there's just no point in playing that line because it's so close to Chris Curtis straight. So I've got Chris Curtis as one of only two singular bets that I have. I now have the Magni by Decision prop. But Chris Curtis is one of only two straight plays I have this week. Yeah, so like the obvious outcomes here are Chris Curtis by knockout, TKO, something like that, or Adolfo v. by submission. Like for some weird reason, just like deep in my gut,

the fight goes to decision sitting at plus 475 is just like. Oh, that seems insane to me. I don't know why it's tempting me so hard. I'll support you if you want to do that. But the only other bet that I would frankly suggest on this, like on this fight is just to do a hedge with Vieira by submission at plus What if, uh, and then you've got both outcomes covered? Yeah, by submission is plus two, ten, huh?

Uh, what about, uh, Chris Curtis by decision at plus, uh, 10.90? That seems incredibly unlikely. I think the only way he goes to the decision is, uh, if, like, Hadolfo is successful with the takedowns and Curtis just fights off the submissions and, like, that would be Viera winning a decision. I don't think it's going to a decision. I don't know why I'm so tempted, but, uh, I mean, if you're really trying to add some wackiness into it,

you could go for the Anthony Hernandez special, Curtis by submission at plus 2000. I mean, you know, we've seen world champions. The Llamar gets submitted before, so maybe it happens again. Seems unlikely, but it's not possible. Yeah, I think I'm just going to completely stay away on this fight, but if it goes to a decision, think of me.

We're just remember. That's a safe bet. We have 276 around the corner, no need to overextend. Exactly. I'm completely with you. All right. So that is the main card. Let's keep it rolling, though.

On to the prelims. Sometimes the best gifts aren't gifts at all. Their experiences, journeys, something that unwraps them. This year, help them explore their past with ancestry DNA. Help them discover where they come from and who they're connected to. Now with even more regions, exclusive features, and incredible detail. They can see where they're from and the paths that shape their family's story. This holiday, give more than a gift. Give AncestryDNA. Visit ancestry.ca for more details. Terms apply.

So fun fact, Connor, I have zero bets on the prelims. Wow, so this is just, am I just going to take the mic and run with this? So you, I have one fight left on the prelims that, you could, I have an almost bet on that you could convince me, but it's one that you're already going to talk about. So the, the, like, there's some spots that maybe I could get involved in, but none of it is anything I feel the least bit confident in. So my bets now are for other organizations outside the UFC. So please, take the wheel and drive. I got three prelim bets. Let's rip through those and then we'll get to the other organizations because I will, as you will be in attendance at PFL, I will be in attendance at Bellator 282.

I love our Friday night ahead of us. Yeah, I kind of unloaded the clip a little bit on Bellator. As soon as the lines drop, I was, you're going to be there. I mean, I was sitting in the Duomo in Florence, Italy, when the lines dropped, I got the notification from fight odds.io. Yeah, and I was placing bets while on a tour in Florence Italy. So, yeah, we'll get into that after this. Let's keep it rolling with it.

I love it. That's a serious man right there. My girlfriend's like, what are you doing? I was like, Belta 2D2 lines just dropped. Hold on, hold on, hold on. Like, so yeah, it was some real degenerate stuff. That's extra DGIN right there. I'm proud of it, though, because one of the lines is a beautiful line at this point. All right.

Prelims, Bantam, wait, bout. We've got Howley and Piva going up against Sergei Morozov, Moro right now sitting at minus 140. Piva at plus 120, over two and a half, minus 180, under two and a half. plus 145. I am rolling with Morozov on this one. I got him at minus 1.30. I think we're honestly getting him a touch discounted after he got finished by Douglas Silva Day and Drodge.

He just got rocked in that one. He could not recover. I just thought he looked fantastic in that fight until he didn't. I mean, the first round, he was just dominating. He got the knockdown, got the takedown, outstriking him, got some control time. But then he just got rocked and he couldn't recover from that.

Got knocked down a couple more times. End up getting it. subbed out. But I mean, if you look back at his record, like, he's really only losing to the best guys. Like, he's 8 and 3 in his last 11. His three losses, Mofsaar Evlov, Evloev, Umar Namagamadov, Douglas Silva Day Androj. That is a combined record of 58 and 4 between those guys. I mean, he is, he is not losing to Scrubs when he goes out there. That's not bad. Yeah, not bad. That's not a bad number. I mean, in the one fight in between, uh, he just looked fantastic. when he went up against, who was it,

when he went up against Khalid Taha, I went and watched that one back. I mean, pillow to post. He got it done with ease in that one. And I just like, when I go to this one, when I look back at, I think he's going to have a wrestling advantage.

I think he's going to be able to mix in the takedowns. He's been training at American Top Team looking at his Instagram. He's been training with Mohamed Mikhail, guys like that. I think he's going to be able to get the counters off against Piva. I mean, we saw Holly and Piva's struggle against Sean O'Malley.

he was kind of getting dominated in the counterpunching. And a weird statistic, he's been outstruck in three of his four. UFC wins. The only time that he outstruck his opponent was against Mark De La Rosa, not the best UFC fighter we've ever seen. I just think Morozov, he's going to be able to hold his own. He's going to be able to land some punches. I think he's going to hold more power in those punches as well.

I think he's going to mix in the wrestling, and I think he's going to be able to get it done by unanimous decision. It's going to be a close fight. That's why the odds are so close, but I think Morozov gets it done. Well, you sold me. I'll tag along here Oh wow

Wow now there's some pressure on it No no pressure This is the one fight I had a potential bet on as well Honestly the big thing Keeping me off him more as I've bet before Is just Pive was really strange And it doesn't make sense to me

Win over Kyler Phillips Who's quite good at fighting Oh yeah That is That's like very Because the rest of his career Makes total sense to me you know, like Zagas, Zoom, whatever, Piva missed weight by a whole bunch and is not like awful at stuffing takedowns and Zagas is a tiny, tiny man because that was a flyweight bout.

So, like, it all makes sense. But then he just, he moves up to Bannon Way and beats Kyler Phillips, which is really, like, I still, I think I'm overrating him because of that. And so it made me a little concerned enough to stay away. But, I don't know, you've got confidence in it. I would like to have a little more action down on this card. I just don't have a lot. I mean, Color Phillips,

like, I guess the one thing that I could say is Kyleor Phillips just, like, fell off a cliff in that fight, like gas tank was. He looked so good in the first round. Yeah.

Like, gets the knockdown, like significantly outstrikes him and then just has, like, essentially nothing left in the next two rounds. Yeah. I mean,

I just, I don't have any bets on this card. I have Chris Curtis. I now have Magnetian. by decision, then I have Serokee and it'll parlay. So might as well add one, and I don't hate your reasoning, so I'll take

Marozov. We can roll that together. The almost bet I had on this fight, though, was just an overbett. Piva Marazov over two and a half. It's minus 180 right now. Seems incredibly likely to cash. Should I stick with? Sell me on it. Do you believe

is that stupid or genius? I mean, I think it probably goes to a decision. I don't think that's Like I mean Pivo what he has one knockout in the UFC Uh sure I want to say that's the case Yeah he has yeah Mark Dehlerosa

Yeah that's it Yeah I mean I just feel like this is This is gonna be a fight I think it's gonna hit the mat I think Morozov's gonna get a take down at some point I think he's gonna score take down I think it gets extended So we're just

going to stick with the more if I'm betting the more azov I don't need to add another bet here I'll just take moreazov no over for me we're going to do all that but now I at least have three then Pives is just going to K him in the first sure but now I at least have four bets down involving this card so that's at least slightly better all right well more is off Kazakhstan forever hopefully we can cash both are oh yeah also Kazakhstan just rolling right now as a as an yeah yeah there was a uh I don't even know if I can say this. There was a Kazakhstan billionaire at this wedding I was at. He was very intimidating.

I tried to talk Shabkat with him. Man, you got fancy friends. I tried to talk Shavkat with him and he was like, I don't like UFC. Triple G. I was like, oh, that makes sense. I mean, I love Triple G, but Triple G's 400 years old. He showed me pictures of him and Triple G.

So I was like, wow. Well, when you said he's a billionaire, I assumed he had pictures of Triple G. Like, that just seems very likely. Yeah, I was pretty disappointed. I was hoping he was going to be like, oh, I know Shavkat. I'll be at his next fight. I love Shafkat. I also love Moresov this week at minus 130.

I put a billion dollars on it. Well, you know, maybe he'll hear this, and then we can move forward. Yeah, I can't imagine that that's going to happen. All right, let's keep up. We've got reach, buddy. We have reach. It's going to extend. All right.

Let's keep it rolling. Next up, flyweight bout. Cody Durden going up against J.P. Durdon, even money, Bayes, minus 120. Overrunner set of two and a half, over minus 160, under, plus 130. This is another one of those fights that I came close to putting a bet in on a fighter, Cody Durdon, and then I had to rethink it, and I just couldn't pull the trigger. I mean, neither of these guys are really that talented.

What I did do is I did some more research. And I took a lower level flyweight out to not go the distance. I took it at plus 120. If I'm just going to be honest with you, emotions could be high in this one. A lot of stuff going on with JP Byes right now. Durdon coming off, you know, lasting about 40 seconds against Mohamed McIyev.

Both of these guys really need a win. And then deeper on to that, J.P. Bayes never want to fight by decision. Durdon, 10 of his 12 wins are also by Finlay. finish. I think there's going to be a lot to prove here. Coming aggressive, two guys who typically when they win, it is by finish. I think playing it at plus money is worth a shot for me. Yeah, sure. In general, I don't, like, that's just a bet I never look to to find the over-under.

Like, if I'm looking for over-under-some fly-way bouts, it's to go over. But, yeah, I mean, these guys aren't very good. I, though, like you, this was one where I considered Durden as an underdog. So it's like, I don't know. He's like, I think J.B. By's, it's worth, like, it's not a who's better. It's who's worse. Oh, yeah.

It's not a who's better fight. It's who's worst fight. And I think J.P. buys is worse than Cody Durdon. But then, like, you was like, oh, I should just not put my money on Cody Durd. That would be a better use of my money for it to be anywhere else besides Cody Durd. So I passed as well. I would appreciate if someone out there could make a power rankings of Alan Bedou,

Josh Parisian, Cody Durden, and JP Bays. Oh, I mean, Parisian and Bidot are awful. They have got to be worse than either Bays and Durdon, I think. But we'll find out. We'll find out this weekend, I suppose, who's the worst of the worst? All right, last one up. Let's finish up the prelims here. It is a bantamweight bout, Mario Bautista, going up against Brian Kelleher, Bautista minus 165.

Kelleher, plus 140, over under, set of two and a half, over minus 125 under minus 105. I'm playing Bautista here. He's 28 years old. I think he's ever improving, training at MMA Lab. Kelleher, he's getting up there in age, 35 years old. Don't think he's making as many improvements as Bautista is. Last time out against Perin, I mean, Bautista looked fantastic. He looked really good in the striking.

Kelleher. I mean, three and three in his last six fights. All three wins is a favorite, all three losses, as an underdog. And he comes in as an underdog here. Bautista, he's also going to have a three inch high advantage, five inch reach advantage. I think he's got the striking advantage in every single way except for power. I think that that's the one concern is boom, catching him with just like a looping hook. But I mean, I think when it just comes to volume defensively, technique, I think. I think Bautista is going to be the better striker here. I think with the height, reach advantage, stay at range, rack up the points, avoid the takedowns, avoid the guillotine of Brian Kelleher, and get it done by unanimous decision. So, fun fact about Mario Batista in his five UFC fights, I have correctly predicted one of them. Let's go.

What do we have this week? I obviously don't have any concept on when he's going to win or lose, and so I'm staying away. everything you said sounds right but just don't want to be involved in a fight I have no good feeling on okay all right

it's very simple that is that's basically my breakdown of every undercard bout on this like I briefly wanted to be involved with Carlos Olberg over to Fon Nchukwai and then I was like oh I should not do that

because I actually don't really have any idea if either of these guys can fight or not and that would be be very dumb of me. So that's just where we're right. That's why I'm on to the PFL. I literally did the same thing. I almost,

there were so many fights that I almost put a bet in on this week and I just ended up not doing that. You mentioned the PFL though. Love the PFL. Yeah, I created a little, yeah, great guys, a really sound organization. It's a smart cage, baby. I'm excited to spend 12 hours with the smart cage on Friday. Oh, yeah, I forgot.

I will be home and in bed. Pacing is tough. after Bellator 282, and you will be on the fourth fight of the prelims at the PFL. Ref cams, that's sick, though. Yeah, so like... Love a ref cam. I put in a parlay that I absolutely loved. Felt like a lot of squash matches.

Bruno Capoloza, Ante Delizio, Renan Ferreira, and Dennis Goldsov. And, yeah, I guess like half the card changed. So I lost two of those. So now I'm writing that instead of even odds, I'm writing it at like minus 203 now. So shout out to the PFL. Basically the same. Yeah, I mean. Basically the same.

Super sick. Yeah, we still don't have odds for the updated fights. All of the old opponents are still there. I mean, like, Dennis Goldsov and Sam Kee are still on the card. They're just fighting new people now. You do this on Tuesday before a Friday card. All but, like, odds on draft kings, bet 365, five dimes, bet way.

Like, and we just, we're just going to switch up the whole card. I mean, tight. Like, who, who can say what happened? Not the BFL. Not the BFL did not say anything. They put out a tweet that was like, update, we've got a whole new lineup. I'll ask about it when I, when I go talk to the wonderful people at the PFL this week, I'll be like, hey, what the hell happened?

they'll probably not give me an answer, but maybe the smart cage will tell me. It knows all. It is a smart cage, so I'm going to ask the smart cage from sitting by. It's a small cage, a offspring of the Disney Channel original movie, smart house. Great movie. Oh, that's, I am desperately trying to interview the smart cage for a piece that I think would be hilariously fun. That would be so fantastic.

And that would be the first question I ask it, because that's great, great. Yeah, so yeah, I'm riding that. Minus 206 parlay now on two fighters. I am waiting for the fight doesn't go, the distance props to drop because I think you're going to see a lot of knockouts with the heavyweights going, especially in some of these mismatches. So the pacing should be even better when you get back-to-back 36-second fights and you're just sitting there.

A lot of time to talk to the cage. I'm excited. get all the questions in. Does it integrate with the nest? I'm going to find these things out and tell the people. Does it have Alexa? Oh, it might be a Siri. Oh, no, it's probably Alexa.

It's probably not a Siri, let's be honest. So what are we got? What have you placed a wager zone? I have one simple wager on the PFL. I think I mostly like to stay away from the PFL because the lines get very juiced. The lines are just always so juiced and like, yeah, Purner Capital is probably going to win. but like do I also want to lay minus 600 on Bruno Capulosa?

I don't. I don't really want that to be a parliq piece. So I think there's some other places like kind of honestly pretty interested in a shame and Marius underdog bet, but I haven't had enough time to go back and watch tape to determine if that's where I really want to be there. But I just, he's been looking really good since joining the PFL and Lance Palmer has been on a bad run lately. But the only bet I have.

I took Anthony Pettis over Stevie Ray. I got the number at minus 170. That number is still coming down. And it's pretty simple. I think both of these guys are, it's a competitive fight. Steve Erie is not a bad lightweight, but I think Anthony Pettis is just better.

I think he still got a little more tread on the tires than Stevie Ray. And I don't really see a way for Stevie Ray to consistently score points and win this fight. And also for him to create offense, will be putting himself at big danger. So numbers maybe a touch higher than like I'd optimally want it, but I think anything up to minus 200 I feel comfortable taking pet as that. So I just picked him up straight.

Right on. I like that. Very, very simple. And then I also have one, I know you, like you said, you unloaded the clip on Bellator. I only have one Bellator bet. It's to, you're going to be shocked. It's in the main event and it's to complete my earlier parlay. with Armand Sarukian.

So let's just roll to Belvoir. I like the sound of this. Because I'm taking Gaygard-Musasi to beat Johnny Eblen because it's Johnny Eblen and Gaygard-Musasi. Yeah, Johnny Evelin jumped in there fast, man. I remember when I was betting him as like a minus 900 favorite against like a farmer like four months ago and now he's getting a title shot. Yeah, I mean, look, I think Johnny Eblen is, well, one,

tremendous nickname, the human cheat code is at least clever and different, so good for you. I think he's a good fighter. I've talked about him being for sure, for sure. A quality I actually think I have him ranked in my middleweight rankings at like 15 or something, because I think he is a legitimately good middleweight and could beat a lot of

top ranked UFC guys. The problem is, this is just a fight that Gagard Musassi excels at. We saw him beat the absolute brains in of Austin Vanderford. And that was a fight that coming into it. I was like, I don't know. Moose hasn't looked great.

He might be past his prime. Vanderford is really tough-nosed grappler. He can take him down. And then, no, he just beat the hell out of him. He also did the same thing with John Salter.

Like, this is a style matchup Moose is incredibly prepared for. And I got to be honest, I have absolutely no idea why he's only a minus 260 favor right now. Like, that makes zero sense to me.

So I parlayed him up with Sarukian. Those two together pays out like minus 110, basically. So that's, That's the only bet I have here. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I'm with you. I'm all in on Gaggart.

I'll be wearing my Ajax, AFC jersey to Bellator on Friday, supporting the Netherlands. Shout out to Gagherd. Yeah, I got these tickets like a month and a half ago, and I'd just been waiting for these lines to drop. I was just praying that Gagard would be playable. He opened up for me at minus 200. Just, I took that.

Pretty much split it between him and Danny Scygarde. Tabatello, which on Bovada, he opened up at minus 155. I pretty much just split everything in my account on these two guys, which was two and a half units on each of them. So yeah, I'm looking forward to hopefully cashing those. And then line's still available right now. Brennan Ward versus Kane under two and a half at minus 180. I mean, Ward is just, he's the definition of killer be killed.

hasn't gone over two and a half, but one time in his career. I mean, he is just a reckless fighter going up against the guy in Kane that has that knockout power, that ability to do it to finish a fight, so I just don't see that one going to distance. Then I got a parlay,

Lucas Brennan, Cody Law, Anatoly Tokov. That one pays out at minus 147, and then I have another parlay, Brennan Ward and Mandel Nalo, plus 127. I have way more units, invested in.

Yeah, that's a lot of, that's a lot of action. I mean, I'm going to the fights. Come on. What was that? I mean, sure. All right. Sure.

Yeah, I think there are some other places that, like, have some marginal interest in Magomed. Magumatov versus Enrique Barzola. I would love Danny Sabs if he wasn't minus five billion that he is now. Yeah, I don't, he, I don't know what Bovado was on dropping. No. Like, I have no idea.

When I looked at the line, I was like, oh, I would have parlaying. him at a much lower number, but that's just a ridiculous price to pay at this point. I don't know, you know, like all the rest of it. There are actually some decent. This is honestly a better offering the Bellator generally gives, but I just, I feel extremely confident about the main event, so put it in a parlay and decide the rest of it can, you know, because I can't watch them because I'm going to be captivated by the smart gauge. So I don't need to have action down for excitement.

I can text you. I can give you my own days. because I won't be able to watch it anyway. Oh, thank you. I will not have time. As you know, the PFL pacing is going to keep me wrapped and added attention. I'll have no time to check Bellator. I can't wait until you text me about the big upset that crushes my now minus.

I think it's 203 part of that. I hope for your sake that that doesn't happen. Yeah, I also do like a nasty, disgusting, like Ante Delisje, Bruno Capoloza, Renan Fiera, Dennis Goldstov, Lucas Brennan, Cody Law, Anatoly Tokov, Shavkat, Rokmanov, Umar Namagabayov, like nine leg, three promotion parlay, like ultimate chalk at like plus three, 49 or something. Love it. Yeah, it's going to be coming in short now, but that's, that's, that somebody's going to blow

that up and that's going to be tragic for you. As I placed it, I was like, the question is, like, not if someone's going to kill this, it's who's going to kill this. Who's, who is the, who is the D who is just going to ruin it? It's a nine-leg parlay and M.A. Like, I'm just the, I'm just dumping money into an incinerator. Hey, but you know, sometimes, sometimes it's fun to light money on fire. I mean, as long as as the hope is still alive, I'm going to be having a blast. And then it's going to feel like my soul got taken out of my body when you text me that, uh, uh, uh, clits and a bray who just knocked

out Renan Fera. honestly that is probably the most like like of the ones that I can remember that you said that one is the one and inferior should win but like that is definitely the one that's going to I want I need the fight doesn't go the distance lines to drop because I'm going to parlay up quite a few of those on PFL I really think you're going to see a lot of knockouts I love it that it I guess that's it all right I think I say I don't have a lot of bet so we honestly spent more time this week, but I guess we talked about three promotions.

But yeah. Yeah, I'm littered all over the place. Like, I'm a little bit lighter on UFC this week. I'm heavy on Bellator because I'm going. And then, yeah, I'll have a couple gross PFL parlays that I can hopefully cheer on. Hey? Well, I will, my very brief recap of my bets.

You talk me into Marazov at minus 140. I've got Chris Curtis at minus 155. We've got Anthony Pettis at minus 1.7. over in the PFL. I have Neil Magni by decision at plus 500. And then I have a parlay with Gagad Musassi and Armand Sarukin that pays out at minus 110. Very light week. Yeah.

I have Armand Sarukin and Chiav got Rachmanov parlayed to pay out at minus 130. I've got Rachmanov Magni does not go the distance at minus 155. I've got Umar Namagamato by sub at even odds. I've got Sergei Morozov at minus 130. I have got Cody Durdin and JP Bays. Does not go the distance at plus 120. Mario Bartista at minus 155. Those are my UFC plays.

Bellator 282. Quick rerun again. Gargum Musassi Money Line minus 155. Minas 200. Danny Sabatella money line minus 155. Ward Kane under two and a half minus 180. Lucas Brennan, Cody Law, Anatoly Tocov, Parley, minus 147.

Brennan Ward, Mandel-Nalo Parley, plus 127. and now a Bruno Capulosa, Renan Faharia, Parlay at minus 202 or something. Before we get out of here, I realize I didn't mention this at the start of the top of the episode, but I need to. For my own sake, I need to unload this because while the other week I maybe got away with one in the Valentina Shvchenko all-in bet, which is a dumb bet. Last week I made another dumb bet because I thought it would be fun to do a round Robin with six favorites. uh for three team parley so functionally as i explained last week had ten parleys down splitting between

kevin holland phil haas gore de paula uh yannes stamen um who else was in there i don't remember actually maybe that was just it i ended up at basically breaking even uh i had a plus i won like plus 0.01 unit or something last last week it's a winning week because glory to paula got freaking robbed and ruined my round robin. My round robin ended up basically breaking even, what with my successful parley's out of it. Had Gloria DePaula correctly gotten the judge's decision because I think she very obviously should have won that fight,

instead of ending up 0.01 unit, I would have ended up a staggering, like, plus 7.5 units. Actually, I think that number is closer to 8.5, but I don't totally have the number down because I obviously didn't win it. so I can't just go check the bank. Because I lost six parleyes on her, which is all of them had a unit on them. And then the various cashes off them.

So that very bad decision really, really hurt me. And I just wanted to say, with AK not here, because I didn't want to bring it up with him on here. Because then you'd be like, yeah, don't bet on M&A. It's stupid. It hurts my feelings, but I still had a great time because I should be a millionaire right now. Oh my gosh. So everybody? That hurts bad.

The cater decision, I would have ended up like four and a half something units instead of up just point five. Like, it's actually like, it's pretty disgusting that, like hearing this break that you got. Yeah, split decision. My God. And then like the last three weeks now, like the fickleness of me having a big week and instead like either having a losing week or a small week. Thin margins, baby. You're talking thin. The split decision in cater was like a four-unit swing or a three-and-a-half unit swing.

The Jung-Yawanna fight, not lasting two more seconds, not lasting two more seconds, was a monster swing for me because I had a huge parlay on that one. Yeah, that gave me a losing week instead of a winning one. And then the week before, Rosenstrike Volkov, the main event, if it finishes round one, I have a winning week. If it finishes round two, I end up like plus six units. But yeah, obviously the knockout came early. I mean, it's just like, but here's the thing.

Here's the thing. Soon enough, these tides that are flooding us, it'll be turning our way. And it's just like, wow, got a lucky one. But I finished up eight units last night because of it. Yeah, that's the thing. When, like last week when I take a very unfortunate break and still end up, you know, functionally breaking even. Yes.

That's okay. Also, just before we wrap, because it bears mentioning, while you were gone, we happened to have a head-to-head battle. And you've improved your record to two and one against me now. Let's go. Because I took the underdog bed on Glover-Teshire. You obviously said you're Perashka. I ended up picking Perashka to win that fight, but I still had my underdog bet on him. And talk about thin margins, maybe.

talk about thin margins. I mean, what an insane fight that was. I mean, you were, what, 32 seconds, 28 seconds, whatever they did that? I was a failed guillotine attempt or just any number. And that was one of the fights I talked to say K about, like, at that point I honestly didn't care because I still had a very successful week because I went all in on Chivchenko, so it didn't matter. But I was also just so relieved from the Chivchenko thing that, like, any outcome didn't

matter. I would have been substantially more upset if, like, I would have been substantially more upset if, like I had just bet a reasonable number on Chivchenko and like that had been the difference between a win and a loss. But yeah, talk about thin margins, man. That one, I felt great at various points. But also that was just one of those fights where you can't even be mad because both guys had so many chances to win.

Oh my God. It was such a good fight. It was such a good fight. The more I think about it, I think it may be actually the best fight of all time. But that's not a conversation for here. I like, I can't even tell you how crazy I went. Because the camera angles were weird and like you couldn't fully see it. You didn't see what happened.

And you're just like, I was like, oh my God, I lost it. I lost it. It was so insane. Unbelievable. But yeah, so we are. We're back. Did you have Yonna? Oh, yeah.

Dude, I had to you. I said, I thought that that was a wolf pack that failed. Oh, God. I had, because I had Yonah. She got crushed, dude. Got obliterated. God, it wasn't even. and then she got caoed.

And the worst thing is, it ran through my mind with like 237 left. I was like, all right, seven seconds. Like, this is a straw weight fight. Like, she's not just going to like knock her out clean cold. Like it'll be like a weird TK or something. And then she did. Yeah, she knocked out clean cold five seconds later. I was just like, that was one of those ones where like I knew how much that cost me.

Because I also had the 35 to one future ticket on you on it to potentially be champion. I had you on the money. And I had you over one and a half. It was one of those ones where, like, I had to, like, walk around, like, pace around for a little bit because I was like, oh, that, that hurt. Like, that hurt. That hurt back. Because, like, if they got to the over one and a half would have been like, all right, whatever. Parlay is still alive and I feel really good about the parlay.

I can still win this week. It's not a big deal. Like, that was just, like, the biggest, like, smack in the face of, like, losing week, burn the future ticket. See you later, dude. Like, oh. That's why we do it, though. I'll say that's the name of the game, though, baby. you will.

Buddy, it's been great to have you back. I'm so excited that we're back and that we're coming back in a strong week where we're both going to events and neither of them are the UFC events. And we're back big time now. Like it's kind of just hitting me

that we're finishing this. Like I'm not going anywhere anytime soon. Trust me. If my bankroll wasn't bad enough while I was in Europe, my wallet was even worse. I can promise you that. I will be in New York for the long run here

so I will not be missing any episodes anytime soon. So yeah, it should be fun. Next week, UFC 276. Are we hyped or are we hyped? If it's any other answer, you are a liar. So hyped. We should get somebody to join us for that.

So let's talk about that. We should absolutely have a guest. We should place a ton of wages. I already have. Yeah, I think I've got like seven wages in already. So we're in good shape in that regard. Yeah, like, if I just go and look, like I already have a parlay. and then I'm not going to

I'm not going to spoil me yeah but I've got one two three four five six seven singles and a parley already in two plus money plays yeah it's going to be

dude every it's going to be a great week it's every fight on the card every fighter has a wiki page except for Ian Gary and Driscus Dupli who are both should have Wikipedia

I was going to say, I kind of like Drake. Dude, they're both, they, both of them are going to win their fights. Woo, I like what you're saying because I might already have a bet on both of them. Yep. All right. Well, that's for next week. Yes, yes. We need close us down.

We're getting too excited here. Uh, we still got to deal with UFC Vegas 57 Bellator 282. PFL number five in the smart cage. Boots on the ground over in Mohegan, Connecticut. Boots on the ground in Atlanta, Georgia. It's going to be a great weekend. Hopefully we can bring in a little bit of cash. to have a little bit extra to bet next week on UFC 276 International Fight Week.

This has been No Betts Barred. Thank you for listening. If you made it this far, I mean, you're really a diehard here because we went extra long this week and he caught up on everything. Thank you so much. See you next week. UFC 376. Love you guys. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network.