MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Finding Value On A Lackluster UFC Vegas Card, Plus The Final Bellator Event Ever?

Episode Date: November 15, 2023

The No Bets Barred boys are back this week with a full breakdown of UFC Vegas 82 and plenty of Bellator discussion as on Friday, Bellator 301 takes place in what may end up being the final event in promotional history. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a small recap of UFC 295 before diving into the double header this weekend. Topics discussed include Paul Craig's chances at pulling off the upset over Brendan Allen, Chase Hooper being such a big betting favorite, the shocking lack of quality betting opportunities on the UFC card, and the wisdom of putting together one final Bellator favorite parlay that is sure to get busted. Tune in for episode 69 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. What is going on, y'all?

We are back another edition of No Bet's Bar, this time. UFC Apex 82, we return to the world's most famous warehouse. The best part about this card, Jed, is actually not the fights. It's not that it's at the apex. That's not hard, but okay. Keep telling me. The best part about this card? 2 p.m.

start here on the East Coast, and that is just beautiful. Absolutely beautiful. It's not bad. It's not bad, man. If you're a west coaster, this is, I mean, this is just heaven. You wake up, have a little brecky, some fights. Man, sometimes I think I wish I lived in California. That would be ideal for exactly a situation like this.

But yeah, 2 p.m. O'Connor, don't get it twisted. Friday is when the festivities start. Bellator 3.01. Quite possibly the last Bellator event in history. And if so, they're going out with the bang. So it's a, well, I would say a big weekend, but the UFC cards trash. So it's a medium-sized weekend of fights.

Unequivocally, the Bellator card is better than the UFC card. Not even close. Not even a contest. Yeah. It's, I am looking forward to that Friday night. One last run of that Showtime pay-per-view, that intro hits. And you're like, it's time to lose some money. It's time to have a parlay busted by a guy that you took at minus 800 that closed at minus 4,000.

and then he loses 3027 decision. Man, I'm going to miss those days, Connor. Tradition like no other. Let's go out with, let's celebrate this last one. Let's go out on top by losing money on aggressive favorites. That's what I do best. It's what I do best. We'll get into Bellator 3.01 at the end of the show.

Before we dive into anything, UFC 295, solid week for me. How did we do at MSG? Almost dead even, almost broke dead even. Hit a couple, lost a few, basically hit the same as I lost. You know, great. Just spinning my wheels is all I was doing from a gambling perspective on Saturday. We're just waiting for that hot streak to come. I mean, it's always right around the corner.

You know, I didn't feel bad because I had a great time. And that's what mattered the most. $2.95 was an electric card. Tommy Aspenall, cashing out. out, you know, hitting, it was, it felt better because the bets I won came later in the night, whereas I dug myself a hole and then I dug out of it to get to even. But so, you know, that was also fun, but it was just fun as hell to watch. Oh, the main card was amazing. Look at the man. Tommy Aspinall. Look at the man. Ben Wassandini. I mean, the main card is

freaking just finish after finish after finish. Three of them in the first like two minutes or whatever was awesome. It was great time. Yeah. Shout out to your. UFC 2995, a very fun card, shortest main card of the year so far. Ooh, that's a good stat. No wonder it was so fun. And look, the rest of the card was also pretty decent. They know there were some spots that maybe could have been a little bit better, but I had a great time overall.

I don't know if this was the best card of the year, but this is one of the, I'll even say it, one of the few cards this year, I feel like I got my 80 bucks worth, you know? that's a good uh that's a good comparison rate uh of like was this worth the $80 purchase uh i think 291 was that was a very fun card 21 i would definitely agree uh 290 i also believe was worth it um 289 was not here uh 287 i think was 285 i think was 285 i think was 284 you can sell me i i understand if people don't everybody doesn't feel this way. 293 probably was just because the Strickland upset was so monumental. Looking back, it was, yeah.

It didn't matter. But, you know, spent the 80 bucks and just watching that in real time is probably worth the 80. 284 definitely was. So, yeah, I don't know. It's about a 50% hit rate. That's not bad. Not bad at all, man. So, yeah.

295 in the review. 20 days of the week. $296, I'm going to assume is going to be worth the $80 because that main card is absolutely beautiful. It's got potential. Main event don't care that much about, but everything else is spicy. So, yeah, and I mean, honestly, even after the game card.

A welterweight championship in the world. I'm looking forward to it. Yeah, but it's Kobe Covington. He hasn't beaten anybody relevant in like 10 years. I don't know what we're doing. He could be someone relevant in Leon Edwards and win the Walter Wade title. He's definitely not going to do that. Then Leon's trying to go to middle weight.

It's a whole thing that's annoying. But the rest of this card is awesome. The prelims, terrific. Love the prelims on this card too. Can't wait for that, but that's a bit away. Yeah, I mean, coin foot. Yeah, I'm going to make a lot of money on Leon Edwards. Okay.

All right. Make a lot of money on Leon Edwards. Max bet that weekend. Maybe. Maybe I could be talked into a max bet on Leon. I'm not going to be the one talking you into it. But I am looking forward to Johnny's sick. Let me tell you this.

I won't be Max Bend a goddamn thing this weekend. And that's where we're heading right now. We are heading to the U.S. I don't have good vibes about anything that's happening. I have some bets down. I do have some bets down. And so that's where we're all head. UFC Fight Night, Brendan Allen, Paul Craig, Apex 82, main event, as I just mentioned.

mentioned Brendan Allen, Paul Craig, right now. What a main event. Main event or last fight of the night? I mean, honestly. Right now you can get Brendan Allen minus 425, Paul Craig plus 330. Yeah, Paul Craig, second fight at 185. I'm actually going to use Brendan Allen as a parlay piece. I think his BJJ can hold up to Paul Craig's.

I think he can survive it. And then on the feed, I do think that, Allen is far better. We've seen Paul Craig sort of just give up on the feet and just kind of demand that the fight goes to the ground. And sometimes that's not successful for him. Johnny Walker, Volcano is the mayor. But I do think Alan is improving in the striking being a kill cliff. Paul Craig also, he's been finished in five of his last six losses. I just, I know he had a great debut against Andrene Muniz. I mean, Brennan Allen is also coming off a win against, you know, he has and Andre Monez. First to sub them, you know, the younger guy, I feel like he's more on the rise than Paul Craig, who's kind of making a desperation move down to 185. So I will be setting with Brennan Allen, and I'm going to use the under as a little parley fodder.

I mean, Craig, 22 of 24 in his career, have not gone to a decision. And Allen, 21 of 27, these dudes are definitely finishers. It's one of those, this is actually one of those special ones where, like, they're trying to make the sale to you. So they put on the poster, Brendan Allen, 11 first round finishes. Paul Craig, 13 wins by submission. It's like when they get like a Derek Lewis main event, it's like most knockouts ever. I mean, they got to sell this somehow because the name brand ain't getting this one across the finish line. I have exactly one piece of breakdown written. And it is, Allen is a much better striker

and I think in parentheses can keep pace with Paul Craig's grappling. Part of me was maybe briefly tempted by Paul Craig dropping down. I mean, MMA math, he beat Andreemunez faster. You know, there's that for you, but I was like, yeah, kind of wide odds.

What if I'm feeling saucy? And then I asked the Magic 8thall and it was like, do not do that. Do not bet on Paul Craig as an underdog. And so I didn't. So there's no action on this. I think the under is a decent little play, but I have two parlays that I feel quite good about and thus didn't want to take any extra extra points here. So for the first time and a long time, I have no action on the main event this weekend.

I will have Alan and Craig in a parlay piece. I'll expect quite a few people to not only be on Paul Craig, but also Paul Craig by submission, big juicy price tag next to his name, but I feel like we're in agreement on how this one goes down. so let's keep right on rolling. To the co-main event of the evening, Jake Matthews taking on the undefeated 24-year-old Michael Morales. And right now, you have Mike minus 285, Jake Matthews coming back at plus 2.30.

Michael Morales, people are saying he's creeping up on Chido Vera as the pride of Ecuador. I mean, that's lofty expectations to place around a young man's neck. I mean, I won't go there, but I never said that. No, no, no, no. I do want to be clear. I never said that. I'm just saying some people are beginning to make murmurs. There's rumblings about the potential of Michael Morales continues to win.

He could potentially overthrow Cheeto as the pride of Ecuador. I didn't say that. The problem there is Cheetos about to become the UFC Bannamweight champion and I think pride of Ecuador is going to be pretty locked in tight once that is. But I do think Michael Morales is going to keep on winning. I think he's going to keep winning this weekend, mainly because I'm just done with Jake Matthews. I'm out. We talked about this his last time out against Darius Flowers earlier this year.

He hooked me. I was like, oh, this man's going to do it. and then Simmel's Burger showed him what's up. And he comes out and, yeah, he beats Darius Flowers. But who is Darius Flowers? You know what I'm saying? My guy, I'm just out. I think I got caught up and now I'm off.

I've got the ick. I have the ick for Jake Matthews. We're not going to be doing that. Michael Morales, I mean, he's bigger. He's faster. He's younger. He's arguably better in all of the phases of the game that are going to take place here. And so I have Michael Morales in a two-leg.

parlay with another fighter on this card. But yeah, give me the future pride of Ecuador. He'll be there to take over once Cheeto has won the belt, you know, put up a couple title defenses and moved on to something else. You want to know my notes for this one? Not fully sold on 24-year-old Michael Morales yet, but I am not getting fooled into playing Jake Matthews again. Not even at this price, because you mentioned it.

After that Andre Fialho win, I mean, he looked like prime Alie in that one. Cashed a beautiful underdog ticket for me. I think for you as well, but now we have seen Fialho's last four opponents do that to him as well. So yes, I will be staying away from this one. I think that's probably smart, but it's not who I'm going to be. I love a big shiny 15 and 0. That is something I can get behind any day of the week. All right. Let's keep it rolling to the featured bout of the evening. Chase Hooper taking on Jordan Levitt right now. You can have of Hooper minus 218 Leavitt coming back at plus 180. Your thoughts on this one? I'm just going to come out. I have no bets. Maybe Jordan Levitt's getting disrespected with this line. He came out and said

that he will make the bookies pay for what they're doing. Hopefully he's not actually betting. You know that you can't do that anymore. But he does say that this is a ridiculous line. I'm just not trying to play Chase Hooper at over minus 200. I've been burned by the guy a couple times. So another one that I will just be sitting back and enjoying. Well, man, I straight up agree with Jordan Levitt on this one. Like, I don't know who's laying this price on Chase Hooper, but you're a more trusting soul than I am.

I can absolutely believe Chase Hooper wins this fight. It's not like Jordan Levitt's great. You know, they both are primarily grapplers and Chase Hooper, certainly a little bit bigger and probably I mean, certainly a more volume heavy striker. Chase Hooper is not a very good striker, but he's willing to strike, and Jordan Levitt's not really a guy

who's going to punish him on the feet in the way that we have seen Chase Hooper kind of struggle. But I just, I'm not going to lay this price on Hooper. I'm taking a dog show. I think this should be a little... Maybe Hooper can be a favorite, not this big a favorite, though. I think Leavitt has it right. I think he's being a little bit disrespected here,

and he's cast as an underdog. before. I'm hoping he does it for me again here. Chase Huber did open up at minus 258 on draft kings, now minus 218. So the money is coming in on the Monkey King. We keep right on rolling. That's where you want to be as a better. You always want to be following the public money. That's just smart gambling. Yeah, it never goes wrong. Never goes wrong. Never. Though I do have, I do have one bet this week. The public is historically smarter than Las Vegas. Yeah, always, always. Yeah, so I do have one bet.

That has massive line movement. I'll get into that later. It's actually taking place in Chicago on Friday night, but I do feel very confident about it. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo? Great idea.

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Aguirre coming back at plus 575. You're taking another dog. shot here. You going plus 575 on Aguirre? I'm not because I really like Peyton Talbot. This year we, earlier this last month, I guess now, debuted a new article that I'm going to be doing every every year, twice a year, I guess. Reviewing all the Contender Series signes from the previous season at the end of it. And Peyton Talbot is one of the guys I put in the category I titled Big Pauls on a Puppy. Basically, I was like a very solid prospect, young dude with some real potential to him. And look, I mean, we know what's going to happen here.

Nick's going to try and take him down. Talbot, he definitely needs to work on his defense, but he's got great pressure, big, young, got good boxing. I would never bet Talbot at these odds, mind you. He's way too green to be betting to be laying this kind of juice on him. But I'm not going to bet a guarer just because I think Talbot is going to get it done here. Yeah, I'm with you on what's going to happen. And I really do think if Talbot stuff's about two takedowns and it stays standing, I think he's just going to, I think he's going to spark Aguirre.

Fights over. If he steps two, fights over. We're done. Yeah. Yeah. And I actually am with you. If Aguirre gets this down and he can get a good position, like the butt cheeks are going to get clenched of a lot of parlay people around the country. I did parlay Peyton Talbot up on Sunday evening.

So this is Sunday evening. It's now Tuesday. So 48 hours ago, he was minus 550, and I was like, man, should I really be playing this on such a green guy? And I said, yeah, yeah, yeah. I feel very confident he's going to win. These lines now, he could close minus 1,000. On bet on line right now, he's minus 900. And that's just insane.

Like, honestly, that's just like worth a shot on a McGuire. Just like Talbot's 6'0. He's good promising, but he's six and a year. It's 25. Yeah, I mean, this is, this fight should just be happening at Bellatoris, what it should be. Honestly. I did also play Talbot by K.O. Minus 140 on that.

That's not a bad price. We'll see what happens though. I mean, Apex cards are what burn me. I mean, they burn everyone. But, you know, regard has never been knocked out, right? I don't think so. I think his loss was a decision earlier this. year right so okay first time for everything though first time for everything let's keep it rolling on the

main card six fight main card amanda heba's taking on luana piniero uh no bet for me here think hevis probably gets it done but uh right now he was sitting at minus 250 piniero at plus 205 the chin for he bus is getting a little bit sketchy i don't really think pinero's one to crack it but move back down to 115. I don't know. There's a lot of fights that I just really don't want anything to do with financially this weekend. See, I agree with that exact sentiment.

That's why I'm on this fight because I was trying to find fights on this card that I wanted to be involved in, strictly to get some fights on this card. Because I'm not even on the main event. This is the one, I won't say I feel great about it. It's one I feel better than like, picking nicholas moda

trey ogden or whatever these fights are going to go talking about and i do i just really like he bus have kind of always always been a fan of hers um yeah chin maybe getting a little questionable but i don't think benero is the one who's going to take there um i think hebas is probably the the better wrestler i mean not probably hevis is the better wrestler and grappler

and certainly can compete on the feet um and we've seen hebas stumble but she stumbles when she's getting to step up in competition. I'm not sold that Piniaro's there, even though she's on a pretty good run right now. So Hibas is the other parley piece with Michael Morales, the two of them I got pays out just under even money. All right. There it is. Amanda Hibas. Michael Morales, that's the two-leg parlay. Let's go to the last fight on the main card. This one ain't even up on tapology yet, but it has been reported. Johnny Parsons out of the fight against Uros Metti. And now, our man, Maltobek Oralby, stepping in on short notice.

He's got three LFA fights. Folks, you need to look at this name because I had to go listen to it about eight times before I think I have something close to it. Used to looking at tough to pronounce names, this is one of the toughest. M-Y-Y-K-Y-T-Y-E-E-X-K-O-R-O-L-B-A-I. Molte-E-O-B-A-I-M-O-B-A-I. That, I'm glad you went and this is why you're a professional. You did the research. You went and looked and listened and heard.

I would not, I mean, Orwell-Bai I might have gotten, would not have gotten Moldebeck. That's just not Mick Tibic. Like, I don't know what I would have had, but it wouldn't have been the right one. Yeah, won't pretend. I watched zero LFA on this. I probably have seen them because I tend to watch LFA. Nothing's jumping out at me, like on, you know, off the top of the old dome here.

But are there even odds up on this? Yeah, no odds up for this one. Just yet. One thing that I do want to see is what the under comes in at. Medesh, kind of like Charles Oliver, Tom Aspinall, Jessica Andrage type. I always just play the unders and usually work. out for me. He's never been to a decision or by 10 of his 13, no decision. And I think he fought like

a few weeks ago in LFA and got a first round knockout. So curious to see where that comes in. Maybe I do another violence parlay. But we shall see. Let's get to the prelims, huh? Hold up because that is, I do want to say that is the shame. Because with the Parsons fight, I was, this was going to be one of my bets when I was doing. I was like, oh, Rosemite, man never goes to a decision. Not the doctor. plus we all love slug or not Johnny Parsons and then that didn't happen so I liked eros Medich by KOTKO I'm not sure I feel the same way about this young man from LFA yeah I was I was on the under the under two and a half minus 200 felt good about that but unfortunately we will not get to see that happen curious to what they line it now all right next up Nicholas Moda taking on

Trey excuse me Trey Ogden right now you can have Nicholas Mota for minus one

minus one wow I am just having a hard time there it is Nicholas Mota minus 135 Trey Ogden

plus 114 14 you got anything on this fight I'll do not a briefly considered

moda strictly because Extreme Couta is having such a moment. But there's about to be a big run of these fights where I'm like, I don't really have a ton of great thoughts on what's about to happen on Saturday. And this kicks us off with that stretch. So nothing from me.

I did go with Moda. Obviously, a concern is the chin. He's been finished five times six, if you include that tough fight that he had. But Oggins never caoed anyone. And on the feet, I think Moda is just far more dangerous. I think he's defensively sound enough to get the job done here. I think he stuffs the takedowns, especially early.

I think he can be the first one to knock out. Trey Ogden, the Samurai Ghost. A lot of good quality nicknames on this fight card. Yeah. Yeah. For anything that this card lacks, it doesn't lack great nicknames. All right, let's keep it rolling to the next fight. Women's Bantam, wait,

bout. If you weren't having a good enough of a time, now we get Aileen Perez taking on Lucy Pudolova and right now you can have Pudolova for minus 1 198 Perez minus

198 Pudolova coming back at plus 164. I have nothing on this fight. I don't know about you. No, I think Perez is going to win. I don't want to lay this odds. I perked up when you said Puddle of a minus 1-19.

I was like, ooh, oh, did something happen? No, no, no. Yeah.

I think Perez is going to win, but how can you have a ton of confidence in her, given what she showed thus far? Yeah, that was a mistake on my part. We keep it rolling to a heavyweight bout. The man,

the myth, the friend of Tommy Aspen on Mick Parkin, taken on Cayo Machado. Right now, Mick Parkin, big favorite. Minus 360. Kio Machado,

coming back at plus 285. I do have a bet here. I actually took Parkin by CAO plus 160. He's minus 330 on the money line. He's a heavy way with five of his seven wins coming by knockout. Both these dudes are high volume for the division. Don't think Machado is very defensively sound. I think someone's going to get clipped. I'm going to go with the man taking the inspiration. Taking the pride of Manchester, the pride of Wegan. Tom Aspinall using that motivation. and doing the exact same thing on Saturday night. Mick Parking, K.O. Plus 160. I love the energy, but you know my rule.

Not betting on fights between guys with 10 fights, you know, got to give me a little bit more. I'm certainly not betting on Mick Parkin, who I believe will win, but it's not enough grease on the wheels here for me. Yeah, I don't blame you. I don't blame you. You got to pull something on this one. Let's keep it rolling to the next fight. Joe Anderson, Brito.

taking on JSP Jonathan Pierce, very closely lined fight right now. You can have Joe Anderson Brito minus 130 plus 1.10. I'm sorry. I'm just struggling reading the odds today, man. We're just off our game. JSP coming back minus 1.30. Don't have a side. I am on the under. Brito cracks. Pierce is live for a finish. Three straight first round finishes for Brito, 11 of his last 14 have ended by finish and jsp 14 of his 18 fights have not been to a decision so i will be going with the under two and a half in this one would you get the under at minus 165 money's come a little in on that um but i like to bet um i have nothing on it but your breakdown's exactly what i have written i mean pierce always always going to be live for a finish but Rito hit real hard, and that also makes him very live.

So didn't want to take his side. It was too close. But I do think that under two and a half is a good bet. Next up, our man, Jose Johnson, taking on our other man, Chad and Hellinger, right now. You can get Chad plus 154, Jose Johnson coming back at minus 192. I do not have a single bet on this fight. Yeah, that's a, that's going to be a no, no for me, dog. I'm not involved in this one either.

I can't, I mean, Jose Johnson probably wins, but I'm just not going to back a man who got twisted, you know. It doesn't seem like good bets. Yeah, yeah, I don't blame you. Blame you there. Let's keep it rolling, you know, a no-bets part exclusive here. Another one, not even on Tapology yet. Christian Leroy Duncan, CLD.

It has been reported he'll be taking on Dennis Touloulin on short notice. Just made this one. Don't have odds. Another one that I'm not going to play a side, but I like the under. 7 and 9 under 2.5 for CLD, 9 straight under 2.5. So if they make it a playable number,

maybe I'll do a, maybe I'll do this fight and the MET. I'll do a short notice under 2.5 parlette. I think that's what I'm thinking. Ooh. Now that's something. Now you're cooking. that's how you make chicken soup out of chicken shit or whatever that line that Brock Lesnar said

a bunch of when he coach tough was. Just solid. That's how you make the best out of situations like this where they're not even, it's fight weak. Tapology didn't even them up. What are we supposed to do with this? So I like where you're at, but yet again, I'm going to not have a bet.

Let's keep it rolling. Flyweight. Flywood under is not back. That's confirmed heartbreaking. in there. Probably not going to be back. Oh, we hoped. And it looked pretty good. In that first round, they were going.

I mean, they were going the whole fight. But, man, it's unfortunate that it didn't work out for us. Those flyweight bouts were like, no. Yeah. And it's probably not going to be back with this one. Raphael Estevom, taking on enemy of the flywood understate,

Charles Johnson, a very closely lined fight. Estevan minus 135, Johnson plus 114. I will be playing the over one and a half just kind of as like a little sort of as like a little jab to Charles Johnson. You know, he's he fooled us once in the Jimmy Flick fight being like this guy's a flyweight under and then, you know, four or five in the UFC via decision. So, yeah, I feel good. I feel good about the over one and a half hitting here. Use it as a little parley place.

A little jab, a little, you know, a little get back on on Charles Johnson. I love that so much. I almost spite bet the over two and a half just because Flywood Under seemed to be rubbing in our face. But then I thought I couldn't live with myself. I can't do that to something that was so good to us for so long. That was a great era. It was a great era. Let's get to the last fight of the night.

Lucas Alexander taking on Jekka, sorry right now. Lucas Alexander, big favorite. Big favorite. Minus 470. Jekka plus 360. I'm using Alexander Napalai. Jacka's first fight at 145. He lost to our boy Jubilee that our man Breeden took care of.

All three of his losses are by finish. I just rate Alexander higher. I think he's going to be able to get this fight to the mat. I think he's going to be able to get on top and he's going to be able to finish the fight. It's going to be a shocker. betting this fight because I don't care about it. Not even a little bit. I looked at this fight

and I was like, you know what? I'm, yeah, I was like, you know what? I'm just going to not focus on this. I'm going to go do some Bellator work because those fights are fights they care about. I love it. I love it. I'm cast out with one, two, three bets

on this card, but I am going to add a fourth. I think I am going to tell you on the Brito JSP under two and a half because I do like that, but a good deal. So I'll have four fights on this card. And I guess there's some world where the Magic 8-Ball told me no on the main event. So if Paul Craig wins, I'll know I can't trust the Magic 8-ball. But if he doesn't, I'll know the Magic A-Ball still has my best interest at heart.

But, yeah, it's going to be a pretty weak Saturday betting-wise for me. Yeah, it took Brito Pierce under two and a half, Moda Money Line, Talbot, K.O., Parlayed-Lade-up, Lucas Alexander, Peyton Talbot, Brennan Allen, and I will parlay up Johnson Estevallum over one and a half, and Alan Craig, under three and a half. And then maybe do that short-nosed replacement under two and a half parlay. But yeah, small betting slate for me. I also do have a two-week parlay with Lucas Alexander,

Larissa Pacheco, and Kayla Harrison. Shout out to the PFL World Championships next year next week. But yeah, Bellator 301. we hit the Chicago, some great fights on this one. We're not going to go through every, every fight. I mean, there's 16 of them. But I mean, you got Yaroslav Amosov, 27 and O. You got Sergio Pettis, patchy Mix.

The rematch, Ropheon Stott, Danny Sabatelo. You got A.J. McKee taking on Sydney Outlaw, Patricie Pitbull with Shabli. I mean, there's some good fights to be had, man. Archie Colgan, Undefeated Prospect getting in there. Cody Law has burned me many, many times. Ramazahn. Curromaga bet off. Yeah, there's a lot of good fight.

So do you have any bets down on Belator 301? I got a lot of action on Belator. Well, a lot, maybe overstating it. Okay. I have action on five of these fights. Shockingly, it's all five of the main card fight. So I considered a couple of the unders as well, the undercards. So do you have any action on Belator?

Yes. So single bets that I have is Tyrol Fortune and Marcelo Gohm under two and a half minus 200. Love that. I mean, you're just talking about some big old heavyweights getting in there who get a lot of finishes. I want to say, I think it's 12 of Tyrol Fortune's last 14 have gone under the two and a half. Marcelo Goam. I mean, many, many finishes on his record as well. I don't have the exact numbers. but these guys don't go to a decision often. Marcelo Goem, two decisions in his 14-fight career and Tyro Fortune, four decisions in his 17-fight career. So under two and a half there.

Big heavyweight getting after it. Love that fight. I played Amosov on Sunday. That line is gone now, but I knew I wanted to play him. I thought I was going to have to use him as a parlay, please. I'm sitting on a hefty bet of Yaroslav Amosov, minus 220. I would also use him as a parlay, please.

I really like his chances here. I mean, when you're 27 and 0, it's kind of hard to pick against you. I have been eyeing that. That is very correct. Been eyeing that Statsabatelo line, man. Coin flip, rematch. Stats already got it done.

Only three rounds this time? I don't know. I don't know. Let's talk about that fight in just a second. I'll go top down, because like I said, I got stuff on all five of the fights. I might add a few more if we get some props. I know not every book does Belator props.

We'll see how that shakes out as we get closer. It's the final fight. Final fight card, maybe of all time. Let us eat a little. I am using Amosov as a parlay piece. 27 and O? That's what you would call good, Connor. And 28, no, he's not far away from catching Habib's 29.

and oh, which to my knowledge, is the longest undefeated streak in the history of this sport. So, you know, keep watching on that. I do like Jason Jackson, but I don't like him to beat Yardsalva Amoslav. I'd like him to be not a live underdog, but he is going to compete while getting pretty thoroughly outclassed, I think, in this fight. So I've got him in a Bellator parley. It's him, obviously taking AJ McKee, which is one of the. most talented fighters, you know, in Bellator, a Sydney outlaw, perfectly, perfectly solid, perfectly scrappy fighter.

But we've seen him kind of fall short against the bigger names, the Tofite Messiah, Michael Chandler, I think AJ Mae's key is going to do the exact same. And I'm not breaking any news here. I'm not being a genius where others are not, but I believe that Alexander Shabli, she'll be one of the very best lightweets in the world. I mean, he's on like a 10-fight winning streak or whatever and has been looking very, very good of late. And Patrici Pitbull, I don't think is particularly good.

He's fine. It's a perfectly fine guy, but not the same quality here. I think Shabilly's going to take him. So I've got those three in a parlay that pays out at minus 110 odds. The co-main event, Sergio Pettis, taking on patchy mix. I have been a big patchy mix supporter, Connor. I thought, I think there's an argument he might be the best band-of-eigh in the world. You know, I thought this before Sean O'Malley beat Al Jemaine Stelling.

I'm not saying he is, but I think you put him in against anybody in the O.C's band-in-weight division. He has as good a chance as anybody to get a W. That being said, I've just been, we've been underestimated Sergio Pettis. Maybe not us, but the collective MMA community has. Last three fights he has been an underdog. He has cashed each of those. tickets. Be one archeleta, knocked out Kioji Horaguchi, beat Patricio Pippo. Like, I'm trying to put respect on this man's name. And so for that reason, a plus 2.30, what if he keeps a streak alive?

He's done it three times in a row, cash, an underdog. Plus 2.30 now, I'm going to do it again on him. And if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But you got to wait and see if Anthony puts in the bet. Feels like Anthony bets on him every time. But yeah, you said, like, we've been, supporting patchy mix and we got some great prices on them this one not so great almost minus 300 it's big it's a big price on him and so like i came into this like before i looked at the odds is like very excited to bet patchy mix probably be close to line set and then i looked at the odds like not going to do it and sergio keeps keeps proving the doubters wrong maybe it stops here but maybe not maybe we all just keep underestimating this dude so at plus 230 taking a dog shot we'll see what happened

And then let's get to that Stott Sabatello fight, Connor, because I have a bet on that fight. More importantly, the robots have a bet because this is your chat GPT bet of the week, Connor. Last week, chat GPT got back on the right track correctly predicted Tom Asperol, even predicted Tom Aspinall first round. Oh, just saying, chat GPT, now lifetime 13 and 7. We're getting, we're starting to put it. We had a little dry run there in the late summer. A couple of cold spots. We're getting back to it.

I put in all the data, put in all the info. And this is what Chatchipete said. I won't bore you with it. It believes it's going to a decision, which I think is fair. Judge's scorecards are read. Decision was met with a mix of cheers and disappointment because Ralphie and Statsz aren't a hard-fought victory. The breakdown was essentially this fight's going to look a little bit similar to their first one,

only three rounds instead of five. Sabatello King has some success with the wrestling, but he doesn't have enough offense. And Stats can stop a lot of Sabatello's wrestling and is a more well-rounded fighter all around. Personally, outside of the robots, I was a little concerned. Maybe Sabatelo can just lay on Stats. It's easier to do that over three rounds and five, but I think, one, I'm just going to trust ChatGBT BT with my life at this point. and I think I would just like this bet anyway, given what we saw. So I'm on Ralphian Stotz at minus 110, and it is the Chad GPT bed of the week.

Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to get around anything here. I was on Stats the first time around. But I don't know. It was a close fight. It was dicey. Should not have been a split decision. Should not have been a 50-45 for Danny Sabatelo. But one of the worst scorecards of all time.

Of all time. It is what it is. But yeah, I might just stay away and watch this one. Maybe I'll use the over one and a half as a parlay piece if we get it because, I mean, maybe I'll just use the over two and a half because I feel like. A terrific parlay piece. Feel like this one is likely, likely to go to a decision. You mentioned some props. We do have props right now for the Amosov fight.

Amosob by points minus 135 by K-O. plus 300 by submission plus 800. I mean, my gut sort of says by points because in general, Jason Jackson has been a very durable fighter. I'm trying to think of when he's a decision machine.

I mean, yeah, he himself is decision machine. I'm trying to think of his losses. I just pulled it up. Ed Ruth's decision. Ankle injury, TKO loss, and then a loss by TKO to

Peter Hassan in 2013. so a decade since Jason Jackson's been finished. Amosov himself, not like the world's best finisher either. So Amazon by decision is, don't hate that, don't hate that even a little bit. Yeah, minus 135. Not a bad shout there. It's a much better price. Honestly, I might just take that one while we're here on top of the parley piece because you can't get the dub.

Why not? I am going to I did do a parley Ramazan Kermagamatov I used your boy Shabli I do think he gets it done against Pitbull and then I use the Alan Craig under four and a half that's when I use that

that violence there so that's all I have on Bellator right now any other bets that you have that you feel strongly on no that's it I mean I might mess around and see if I get any any on the under card the fortune goal might end up tailing you on i think that's a good bet um and why not bet on heavyweight bellator fights if you can you know that's just yeah that's just good yeah i might add something with a j mckee uh but we shall see you know he's a solid fighter he's a solid he's a really good fighter i believe very he's gonna beat sydney outlaw pretty comfortably he's very

very good plus he's got to show out he might be a free agent in months he wants to make sure he's getting top dollar from either the pfl or the ufc whoever's making the bids uh all right i think that'll do it then we've done it bellator 301 in the books sounds good to me or in the books maybe oh it's one of the books think and thank the heavens and the uc just keeps rolling on before we get out here i do have to ask you a question i'll ask it on Are we doing a PFL MBB for next week? That's a great question. I mean, I'm going to have bets down, so we might as well.

I think we can shoot for like a 30-minute real quick episode. Oh, yeah. Maybe even like 25. I can't imagine the odds are going to be spectacular on several of them. Well, then, you'll see us next week, everybody. It's been real. Oh, it's been very real. PFL championships next week.

Thanksgiving next week. See you then. Love you.