MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Flyweight Unders Are Back At UFC Vegas 62!

Episode Date: October 12, 2022

After taking a week off, the UFC is back this Saturday with another Apex event in UFC Vegas 62, headlined by a women's flyweight bout between Alexa Grasso and Viviane Araújo, and that means the No Bets Barred boys are back to cover all of your gambling needs. After a brief discussion on UFC Vegas 61 and Bellator 286, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew dive into this week's card, celebrating the long-awaited return of flyweight bouts, and the corresponding UNDER bets that go with them. Then, Jed debuts a brand new gambling theory that he's testing out on this weekend's card. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, Ghosts in the Machine, available now only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another edition of No Bet's Barred this time for UFC Apex 62 Grasso.

Versus Oroo, we are back from a week off of UFC. See, last time we talked, it was before the much anticipated Dern versus Yon, UFC Apex 61 card. Long time. No talk yet. How we doing, man? Thriving, as always. I mean, it's a great week, buddy. We got fights again.

We've been getting a lot of weeks off, especially because we've got another one coming up and, you know, not next weekend, but after. It's been a bit of a late, late end of year lull. So I don't even know what to do with myself with all. this time off. Yeah, it is good to be back. Especially last weekend, there was almost no combat sports period. We got overream, but like that was... I couldn't find a place to bet on that either, so... I couldn't bet on it. I struggled to watch it, so I kind of just caught the highlights from, if I'm going to be honest, if we're going to be in the trust circle. Oh, you are. You are such a lucky man. I got the wonderful responsibility. Honor. I think honor would be a better term for it.

probably more accurate of covering that event for everybodyfighton.com, great website. Great website. And it was a tough hang. No finishes on the entire card, all decisions. It's more fighting time.

It's more fighting time. You got your money's worth. Perhaps not in quality, but certainly in quantity of the content. If you paid for that, you got every, literally every minute worth of it that you possibly could have. Some of the undercard stuff was like at least a little fun, but it's just tough hang,

man, just tough, tough hang. Yeah, I can imagine having to sit through that entire card. I can definitely imagine. It's sort of like a boxing card where you're just anticipating the main event the entire time through. So, you know, a quick, very brief discussion on Dern, Yon. I mean, just shout out to Jan, that's all I got to say. Sure. I think. we were both right. Is this the argument you're making? We're both right here? My takeaway of this fight is that we were both right.

Because I know, I caught heat from this already, and I know that you're going to fire some more shots at me for it. I scored the fight from McKinsey Dern. Well. Because she lost three rounds decisively, but she won three rounds even more decisively. I gave her 10-8s and both. I was going to say, so you're saying two 10-8s. Two-ten-eight.

So my initial score was that upon rewatch, I actually scored her to draw. I still gave Dern two 10-8s, but I also gave Jan a 10-8 for round three, where she, like, really tuned Dern up and had her hurt on the feet. Like, she had that big left hand that stumbled there. And, like, I gave her a 10-8 for that as well. So I think that math works out, right, as a tie. I don't, I think that math works out as a tie. It was a cluster of a fight is a short version.

Yeah, I'm trying to remember the last time in a fight where the rounds were just so clear and so decisive who won them. Whether you gave them 10-8s or not, it was just like- There's no doubt who won the round. Yes, round 1, 3, and 5 was yon. Or no, rounds 1, 3 and 4 was yawn. Round 2 and 5, Dern. Yeah. Like unquestionably.

And I can't lie to him. After round four, I was like feeling big brain. I was feeling real big brain. I was like, this fight is going exactly how I planned it. Mackenzie Dern. Round two Dern is becoming a somewhat of a mythical fighter here. She somehow just like dominates round twos every time. I knew I had a little sweat left in us.

I checked the live line and Yon was like minus 800. I was like, this can't be that easy. This cannot be that easy. And it was a roller coaster all the way to the end. it sure was because I was right through with you I was like at some point she's going to finish this right because I felt you felt big brain in four boy I felt big big brain in two it was like oh yeah right like too I was like this is over all right this is what I feared the worst like but when she made it out of two I was like watch this round three yon's about to come alive in round three I still thought

she was screwed because she looked so tired because she got her ass beat in round two I was like This is done. Now the takedowns will just come easier for Dern. She'll just be able to get a clinch and just muscle it down. And this is over. If she ever learns to not try and submit people and just to punch their freaking heads, she'd be so much more dangerous. But that's just not who she is.

And she couldn't. Yon had great defense. Credit to her. I did not think she could last as long on the ground as she did with Dern and not get tapped. But she did. And it was enough to edge out a win on the score parts. Yeah. Pretty exciting fight. I can't lie. You know, I chalked that one on my scorecard. You got the, you know, big Brendan Allen, Christop Jocko battle we had. Oh, just a, just a delightful battle. Yeah. I mean, God, he looked great, bro. I was like, wow. I didn't last song. Yeah, that one, I see at least that one you knew very quickly. Like, oh, okay, well, cool. I had to sweat the 25 minutes of being like, darn, come on.

Yeah, and it was like a... Do the thing. It was a real sweat, too. That whole 25 minutes, I think on both sides, whoever you had. It was a serious sweat. Yeah, Jocko. And, like, he got a reversal in, like, the first, like, minute and a half or, like, he, like, got right back up.

I was like, okay, yeah, yeah. This is how I thought this was going to go. And then immediately went south. Yeah, just instantaneously. Honestly, the best performance of Brendan Allen's career. He looked... He looked like I thought. I was like he's 27.

He's about to come into his own, Jocko's a little old. I had that one dead to rights. It's really cool when fights go exactly how you envision them in your head and you cash a ticket on it. It's just like, wow, I'm a genius. I mean, I don't know how the world hasn't seen it yet. But yeah, that was that card.

It was an okay card. This, you know, an okay card. A little appetizer. Before we move to the appetizer, I do want to talk about me being a genius one more time. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I didn't give it out on no-bets barred because the lines were not out yet. But on the gambling column, all right for my fighting.com great website.

We then had prop pets down for Bellator. God, I forgot Bellator even happened. Yep. I had a mixed bag. All of the straight shots I took failed. But I did hit on A.J. McKee by decision at plus five. $500. Tasty, $500.

So that bet alone made up for all of my losses. And then with Brandon Allen and a couple of others, I cashed a profit on the weekend. I'm honestly shocked that in a three-round fight, it was as high as that for someone that was like a minus $500. That was partly why I tell you. I was like, I know A.J. McKee is a really, really great finisher. But Spike Carlisle, a tough dude, man. Just a tough hang.

That was a sweaty bet. Let's be real at various points. Especially in the beginning. Yeah. Very early on, I thought, well, this is the stupidest bet I've made this weekend. But just hung in there. Let it go. So, you know, good weekend overall.

And now that we've said that, we can go to the amuse bouch of UFC 280. Yes, it is the, you know, the salad dish, the soup that lacks a little flavor. you know, everyone, not everyone at the table finishes it. And it's kind of like, all right, it's time to move on, you know, to the bigger things, which is 280. 280 is the filet mignon that you're waiting on right now. We just had the, you know, salad, maybe not enough dressing, you know, maybe a little blend, not enough going on in it. No, no olives, no croutons, just kind of lettuce and maybe a light vinaigrette is what we're looking at here, UFC Apex 62. But 280, man. Oh, my God. That steak is going to be. worth it. Something worth it, for sure. I have fights on that card, but I am incredibly disappointed that we lost

Jailton Alameda, I have to say. You know, my bank account's disappointed because that man is guaranteed every time out, but... Yeah, it's like a president and founding member of the Jailton Alameda, you know, fan club, stand club

over here. Disappointed that we have to wait till I think it's November 5th. you know we're going to survive uh we still have 14 fights on that card and more importantly we still have what do we have this weekend like 13 i think it's 12 5 12 all 12 is such a good number of fights 4 o'clock start to you know i'm gonna not gonna lie to you'll fight card this weekend is i'm having it on a side tv okay you got to got to watch the big game j vandy is just YouJ Vandy might be an iPad game just on the table as a monitor.

I mean, Bama Tennessee, I think is going to get the rights to the big TV, Braves playoffs. That could be happening. I mean, okay, it makes sense, Tennessee, Bama. I'm just saying, UJ. struggled. Maybe Vandy looked frisky for a half last weekend. Yeah, we're back. We're back.

We handled Auburn with ease this weekend. We did. I am shocked that the Vandy game is at 3.30 this week. This just had a nooner written all over it to me, but I don't get why it's not. Is it in Nashville? If it is 11 o'clock. It's at our barn. Ah, bummer. Yeah, it's a, I think, I'm pretty sure this is our homecoming, because we usually schedule Vandy to be our homecoming game. Yeah, I've been to a to a game or two in Vandy in Nashville, 11 o'clock local kick. It's great. Go in. I mean, you know, just beat the brakes off of them. Yeah, it's usually mostly red in the stadium. All right, enough about that. We have to break down UFC checks. We're just doing everything we can not to talk about this fight card.

Well, we got to talk about it, and that's what we're going to do here. Let's kick it off at the main event. It is a, yeah, I was just about to say it. I forgot to say it before my little intro there. You said this is a good week for what this card lacks in maybe entertaining fights and consequential fights with big stakes. No consequences. The women's flyweight division, I guess.

There's two fights that have consequences on this card. It does make up for it in flyweight fights. Oh, man. So many of them, they're just handing out like candy. It's Halloween come early. Shout out to the UFC. Shout out to the UFC. So the main event is a flyweight bout.

Let's get into that. The women's flyweight division, it is Alexa Grosso. Going up against Viviana Rujo, right now Grasso can be had for minus 2.15, Arrucho coming back at plus 185. You got anything on the main event, sir? I do. I don't like it, though. I have one bet. Do you have, before we get into it, do you have anything? Two bets, one just big old chalk soup, chalk donkey prop. You can go ahead and assume that that's the over one and a half.

Oh wow, that is minus 750 is what I got it at. So it has to be juice to the moon. To the moon, but that's what we do around here. And then I have a prop on the fighter. I'll just dive right into it. So like I think this fight goes long. These are two tough girls,

Arrugia dog in her. I mean, if you go back. How long do you think it goes? I think it's going to go to a decision. But in my chalk donkey soup parlay, I took the over one and a half. So I guess I can just take the short road there since I've just said that I think it's going to go to a decision. I mean, two tough girls

here, two dogs. Not much finishing capability going on here. Yes, I know Alexa Grasso submitted Joanne Wood last time out, but before that she had seven straight wins by decision dating back to her Invicta days. I think that Alexa Grasso was going to win by decision. Arrucho dropped by Andrea Lee, just eating shots the entire fight. Yes, I know she won the fight, but like, you can kind of depend on Aroja to get hit. She is more than likely going to get outstruck in her fights, five of her last six fights. She's been outstruck in. Alexa Grasso skilled boxer, I like what she can do on the feet. I think she is going to just outpoint her across the five rounds. I think they're both durable. I think they last the 25 minutes. And I'm thinking 48, 47, 49, 46, maybe a mix of

the two across the scorecards. I do worry a little bit about Arrucho with the takedowns. Grasso doesn't have the best take down defense. We've seen her struggle against the champ. I know you don't like, you know you don't like saying it. Against the champ, she's struggling. She's the champ. She's just like the fifth best straw in the world. She is a good wrestler, though. We saw her struggle here. She's a great wrestler. Arrucho's a dog too. She's not going to quit. So I do think, you know, it's going to be competitive. But I had to get a little action on the main event for this card. So I'm not going to say forcing, but if this card was next week, I wouldn't be taken. This fight was next week, I wouldn't be taking this bet.

I agree with a lot of what you said. I am absolutely forcing a bet on this one. And I got to say, buddy, I'm disappointed in you. Oh, please. I'm really disappointed in here. Tell me. Yeah. It's just I was on the gospel of flyweight unders because they are a lock.

They never miss. You recently decided that women's flyweight unders also counted towards this, that they were part and parcel of the whole deal for you. And so when I said at the top that I wasn't happy with my bet, I took the under four and a half at plus 180. My brain, every analytical aspect of myself said, oh, probably going to decision. Grasso is going to win a UD here.

Neither of these women get finished all that often, neither of them finished that much. All of my brain broke that down. And then I looked at it and said, it's a flyweight fight. Connor and I, we stand for one thing. And look at you now. I don't know how to react to this. I feel betrayed.

I'm going to be honest. Yeah, I'm not going to lie to you, man. I tried to get there. I tried to get there. Like, I'm trying to think of the. Arroger gets hit a lot in Grosso. She does. She does get hit a lot.

Can box? She can box. She, can box, but that doesn't necessarily mean she can knock people out. Ruzha's getting a little old, you know, a little bit old. She's about to be 36.

Dude, listen. If the reason that I lose a Alexa Grasso by decision bet that I low-key kind of forced because another flyweight under hit, I'm okay with that. Okay. I promise you I'm okay with that.

I forced the under here because my brain wanted to take fight goes to decision at minus two. 200, but my heart. We'll get into it a little bit later, but I think I made up. I think I'll make up for it in, uh, in other ways. I'm excited. I have one bet on, well, I guess technically it's two bets on this card that I'm incredibly excited to talk to you about. So yes. Let's get closer to talking about those and let's be done with this main event. Yeah, that's the main event. Uh, Grasso, decision outpoints are or there's an early finish when we cash another flyweight under. Uh, one of the two. It's, For me to imagine Arrujo can consistent, like can win 15 minutes of this fight. I can see it winning pockets, but that's kind of how I feel. I see Arrucho getting around for sure, maybe too. But I think I think Grosso is going to be able to turn it on as the fight goes on.

I think she gets it done. So Grasso is my pick. I did force a little by decision action on that as well. All right, let's go to the co-main event. It is a men's bantamweight bout, Jonathan Martinez, going up against Cubby. Swanson Martinez right now minus 205 Cub Swanson plus 175 fight goes minus 135 fight does not plus 100 so I have nothing on this fight I'm pretty hype for it I wanted to bet on it but just the more I looked into it I just don't really know what's going to happen Dragon Martinez he's

looked he's looked great of late the leg kicks I mean I've been on a few times and just watching him just chop the legs of everyone he fights is is a real enjoyable sight when when you bet on him, you just watch him outpoint him over the three rounds. But Cub Swanson seems to have turned it on of late, won three of his last four. And Jonathan Martinez, the chin, while he hasn't just been knocked out, you know, in a ton of fights. Obviously, Davy Grant got to that chin. He has been knocked down in several of these fights.

And what can Cub Swanson do? Cub Swanson can crack. I mean, his last two wins are by knockout, featherweight division. He's got the third most knockouts, or I mean, third most knocked out. all time. He definitely carries some power at the band and weight division, so I don't know if I fully trust that. So I don't know who's going to win,

and I don't know if it's going to go over or under. So I decided to just stay away, sit back, and just enjoy what should be a bangor of a fight. So I took a bet on this fight. Let's go. I'd love to hear it. You know, the thing about Cub Swanson is he's old. Connor, he's an old man. He is.

He's almost 40. I say he's almost 40. And that's, you know, the weather is changing. It's getting a little colder, and I don't know about you. I'm, you know, I'm in my... Nees start hurting. Nees start hurting when you wake up. You wake up and you think, ah, you got to get loose.

And your knees really start hurting when Jonathan Martinez is kicking the crap out of your legs. I mean, the kicks are... I mean, when you're cheering on a Jonathan Martinez bet and he's just chopping that leg, you're just... It's like a... You're watching a horse, you know, where the guys start slapping their own asses. They're cheering on a horse. That's kind of how I get with Jonathan Martinez's leg kicks, as it... as the fight goes on.

Yeah, just chopping the tree down, Cubs old. You know, those legs don't want to take that. He's just a little too old. I like Jonathan Martinez. I think he's got a bright future. And I think Cubs, look, what you say is right, Cubs won three or four. That one loss was Skia Ciccate. There's no shame in that loss.

None. But, you know, I am fading the old guy here. I have Martinez in a parlay. It's a two-leg parlay. I'll tell you the other leg. It's prelim fight. We'll get to it. But I'm just, I'm saying disrespect your elders.

We talked about the other week. No respect for your elders on this fight card for me. Cove Swanson, you had a hell of a career. But I think this is the end of the road. All right. I, yeah, I respect it. I like Jonathan Martinez. I like both of these guys.

Should be a fun fight at the very least. All right. Next up, main card. Men's. Fly away back. We have Ascar Ascarov. Men's flyway bow. It is.

Ascar Ascarov going up against Brandon Raw Dog Roy Val. Ascarov minus 240. Roy Val plus 200. Yada, yada, yada. Let's get to what we want to get to. The over under is set at two and a half. Over two and a half minus 135. That means we're getting the under two and a half at a little plus money right now.

Plus 105. Yeah, I'm on the under. Do we even need to break it down? Do we even need to break it down? Under. Under two and a half. Here's a real breakdown. I'll keep it brief. I'll keep it short. This fight goes two ways for us. Ascarov makes this as boring as possible and he becomes my new villain. He becomes my new enemy. Or Brandon Roy Val, being the crazy SOB that he is, gets here and makes this fight frantic and chaotic and someone gets a finish. within the first 12.5 minutes, because that's all that matters to me. Some people have said,

oh, Connor, Ascar-R-A-R-Av has gone to a decision in every single one of his UFC fights. Okay, let's play the Ipso-Flipso. Brandon Roy Val has never gone to a decision. He's always got under two and a half. But the Bontorine fight, Bontorine tapped, and it would have been within the under two and a half. So go ahead and retroactively cash that ticket. So this is an, what is it, an immovable object. A movable object faces an unstoppable force.

We're going to go with the unstoppable force in Brandon Roy Val to get this done for us. Can I, can I sweeten the pot for you just a little bit further too? Sweeten it. Because everything you said is right. Look, let's be extremely clear. Brandon Royval, he is the definite, he's the guy we love. He is a get-old get-got. This man is coming for your head or he's giving you his.

that is the only way he fights. Yes, Asker Ascrov, decision machine. Machine. The worst. But he can finish people because in his 11 fights prior to joining the UFC, tell me. Do you know how many of those were finishes? I don't know.

Three? All 11. 11 finishes. The man has the ability to get finishes. Wow. He just hasn't. And when you, this is not an unstoppable force and an immovable object. This is an incredibly stoppable force in Brandon, Rory Fow against an object that's ready to move.

I think if Ascroft does get the win just by virtue of who Royval is, he gets to win, be a submission. He gets to take down, gets to finish. But if he doesn't, if Royval wins, the only way he wins is by finish. So I'm all going on the under. Ascar, he had the backpack for quite a bit of time on my guy, Kai. Like, there were some dicey moments there. Kai, obviously, being the elite flyweight that he is, was able to avoid it. I don't know if raw dog is going to have any intentions of doing that.

I mean, that man, it's killer be killed. Like, raw dog is who we're depending on, but Ascar can be the hero that we never knew we needed in this one. True. Great time to put on that cape, baby. Just put on that cape, be the hero, Ascar. And let's make some magic happen. Let's keep this money train rolling. This fight goes, Ascar, Ascarov either dies the villain, i.e., he wins by decision,

or he lives long enough to see him, or he fights long enough in the UFC to see himself become the hero, i.e. getting the finish here. I love how you clarified that as fights long enough in the UFC, because fights long enough is exactly what we don't want him to do. Exactly. fights long enough in the UFC. Has enough fights in the UFC to where he becomes the hero. You know, that was a little Batman-inspired quote for you there

as we try to cash another FlyWid Under. I haven't lost yet on Flyweight Under this year. I'm not ready to lose. My heart isn't ready. My heart is not prepared to lose on a Flyweight Under. Boating for Flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time.

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Winners find fabulous for less You know it would be just great Connor I mean aside from if there was a heavyweight fight To bet the over most electric bet in the entire industry Great bet It would be great All right, go ahead, go ahead, go ahead. I just want to ask you about the Taitouyevasa, Sergey Pavlovich, heavyweight over.

We're taking it. Is that going to be over half? I think it's going to be over one and a half and we're still going to take it and I'm not going to feel great about it. But like I said, it's the most electric bet in the industry. Electricity is what that bet is. Continue with your thought, though. I also, I hate that fight. I don't know why that fight's happening in Orlando.

They're going to Perth in February. What are we doing? Put Ty in Perth. That is, I wrote this weekend in a column like a fan Q&A mailback column that I write. Somebody asked like, Fantasy book, UFC's return to Perth. And I put Tuivasa Pavlovich as the fight. Like that's the fight that I won. It makes sense.

It's a banger. Dude in Australia. Why are we doing this in Orlando? I agree with you. I have a conspiracy theory. put a little bit of research into this. Pretty big conspiracy theory. This is actually me introducing it to the world.

So, you know, let me know, scale one to ten, how much of mind is blown. Taitoivas, last time he fought, it was in Paris, France. A little city in France called Paris. Post-fight. Small town. Small town. Post-fight, despite the loss, still went and visited Disney World Paris, Disneyland, Worldland. I don't know which one. Guy loved it. It looked like he loved it if you follow him on any

social media. This guy loves Disneyland. He heard UFC Orlando. He heard UFC Perth. He said, does Perth have Disney? Is there Disney World Perth? They said, no, sorry, but you know, the OG is in Orlando. He said, okay, are we fighting in Orlando anytime soon? And they were like, yeah, December 3rd. He was like, all right, I'll fight in Orlando then, thanks. You don't want to fight in front of all the Aussies in front of the hometown? No, I want to go to Disney World is what I want to do. So I'm going to go in there, knock out Pavlovick, and, you know, that's how it is. This is an A-plus-plus conspiracy theory.

I don't even think it's a conspiracy theory. I think this is just a fact. Yeah, listen, you know, area Hawwani on the MMA hour, he's his own man. He's his own journalist. You know, great interviewer, asked good questions. But if Taito Ivasa comes on the show, we're going to have to somehow, yeah, we're We're going to have to run Burgundy, Ariel, in some sort of fashion to get him to just read the question, is the only reason you're fighting on UFC Orlando because you love Disney World?

The world. The fans need to know. Yes, the world. We need to know. The Disney World needs to know. Man. So, yeah, we got way, way off track here. You had some sort of thought before we got to interrupt this?

We're just really trying not to find out to talk about this card. My thought, we don't need to talk with my thought because we'll get to it in a little bit. It was just going to be a joking transition. So we don't need to do that anymore because we've already been far too off the rails. I don't even know what the next fight up is. I do. And I can tell you it. It's a main card, middleweight bout.

It is Dusko Tororovic going up against Jordan Wright. The over under is set at one and a half. Right now you can get Todorovic for minus 195, right, plus 165, over under. you know, under minus 210 over plus 170. I hit the under on this. The second that the prop became available to me. I mean, this is, Jordan Wright is killer be killed, and I'd like to introduce him to the closest thing to that in Dusko Todorovic.

I mean, if you just look at it, Jordan Wright, he makes a decent hammer. He makes an even better nail, which is what he has been doing lately. Jordan Wright has never been over one and a half in his career and 12 times he didn't even go over a half round. Toto Rovich, not as great, statistically speaking, for betting unders, but three of his last four of ended in the first round,

and overall 12 of his 14 fights have not reached the third round. So two finishers that can also get finished. Sign me up for this one ending early. I knew that this was where you're going to be, and this was the photo I was the most excited to talk about. It has to be. Because I have a new theory that I want to put in play, buddy. I have a new theory.

You know, we tested and proved the flyweight under theory. Heavyweight overs, similar. Tested improved. I have a new theory that I've decided. I'm listening. It's taking all the science, all the math that we learned from flyweight unders and heavyweight overs. And it's taking it one step further. And that theory, I'm calling it the George Cassidy.

stands a rule. And are you Seinfeld guy? Do you ever watch Seinfeld? I have watched many episodes, have not sat down and watched every episode. One of my, tell me if you remember the episode. One of my favorite episodes is when George, you know, sad sack band that he is, realizes that every instinct he's ever had in his life is wrong. And if every, every instinct I've ever had has been wrong, every one.

And so the opposite must be true. And so then he starts just doing the exact opposite of what he would in any given circumstances. His life flourishes. He thrives. I'm putting that into play here because like you said, every instinct we have, every mathematical, scientific, tactical, tactical, analytical, any breakdown you have says this goes under one and a half. but what if we're all wrong, Connor? What if every betting instinct we've ever had is incorrect? That's why flyweight under's hits.

That's why heavyweight over's hit. Oh, I like this. So once a card, I'm going to Costanza a fight. And this is the fight that was the most Costanza to me. Yes, 14 of right 16 fights haven't even made it out of the first round. And yes, Totorovic only has two decisions his entire career. I'm betting the over one and a half at plus one. and even more enthusiastically goes to decision at plus 450.

Wow. This may be the dumbest bet I've ever made. It varied. But I want to put the theory into play. I like, I love testing theories, especially on cards like UFC Apex 62 Grasso versus Rujo. I can't, I can't, I can't say that I'm riding with you. I'm on the under one and a half.

to. And I have also parlayed, I've also parlayed the fight does not go to a decision. I mean, this is your journey. Uh, I will be watching. Both of these men are due. Both of these men are due for a sweaty decision. And, you know, let's, let's just, let's, let's, let's try in theory craft thing. Like, right. Okay. Right. It's getting a little older. You know, he's, he, he knows. He knows that he hasn't been to decision. But you know what else he knows? He's lost three or four. You know, this is not a sustainable way to have a career. He wants to stay in this game. He's going to come in a little more tactically.

It's going to fight a little more soundly, a little more Greg Jacksonie. We're getting a decision, baby. I feel it in my bones, deep in the plums, and I am hammering it. Let's go. Listen, I'm never going to go against someone betting on their instinct and betting on their gut. So I can't really say anything here. Just other than have you watched Jordan Wright? fight before.

I have, again. They get pretty chaotic. My entire theory here is that everything I think I know is wrong. And, you know, a lot of life I've been proven, if I had lived that way through most of my life, I probably would have been incorrect a lot of times. So we're testing. We are a podcast of science and learning. And we're about to learn something scientifically for damn sure.

I like it. I like the Costanza theory. I like the Costanza bet, just going 100%. against what you believe, you know, to maybe prop up your argument a little bit more. Apex card, kind of a low-key card, a little bit underrated, you know. You can just see this whole card. I'm just seeing Jordan Wright. It's like, I'll just go in, wrestle, sneak out of decision, and keep my ass in the UFC.

Got to keep getting that check, baby. Got to keep getting that check. No crowd there to, you know, kind of. To get them electrified, you know? I'm just saying, we'll see. We'll talk about it next week. Yeah, or they just come in and just start swinging for the fences, one of the two. Maybe they do that, but they both just get really tough overnight, and neither of them falls after 15.

Who can say? Dusko, Dusko actually is pretty tough. Like, he's gone to a decision with Gregory Houdriguez, though Gregory Hatteras sneakily goes to more decisions than people actually realize. I know his fights are always crazy and chaotic, but I've lost some fight, doesn't go to a decision on Haudriguez Robocop fights before. But yeah, Jordan Wright. Not a great now. But maybe he comes out Dober chinned up. Never know.

We'll find out. I'm excited. This was, what you said at the beginning was correct. This is the type of theory you test on a card like this. Yeah. I don't need to do this on 280, but I wanted to put it into play. I'll tell you what. I am going to be the most electric fan in the entire world come Saturday.

I actually think I am too. I love, I think my favorite bet is, is unders and doesn't go to a decision because you're cheering for both fighters and you're cheering for the exciting thing to happen and you're cheering for violence and when it hits, it's awesome. It's too short to bet overs. Like, I mean, that's a fact. And like, it's just like when it hits, it's awesome. So, yeah, like I just love betting violence and that's what I did this week. I have quite a few violence bets.

I have a lot of other unders and, you know, doesn't go to decision. But this one I decided to let's do change up in there, you know. Giving high heat down the middle, got to give them a change up at the off speed. You talk about looking like a genius if this hits. You have to come out about how analytically speaking and strategically in the fights, this is why this happens. The math, the math said. I just felt like it was plus EV to go take this one by a decision. All right, let's keep it rolling.

Main card, light heavy weight bout. We got Mishircinov going up against Alonzo Minifield. Right now you can get Sirkenov plus 175. Minifield, the favorite minus 205. Another one and a half over under set of one and a half over minus 105 under minus 125. I said I got a lot of violence bets. Took another one here. I am on the under one and a half.

If I also parlayed up, the fight does not go to a decision. Mishy Sarkhanov, guy does not like going to decisions. I feel like that's kind of sneaky about him if you don't watch him too much. Ten of his 12 UFC fights have gone under the one and a half. Only time he went to a decision was against Jocko who likes going to decisions. That's his whole brand in this fight game. 16 of his 23 career fights ended in the first round. 20 of the 23 did not go to a decision.

Menafield, you know, kind of like to do. go right fight, the other side. He's not as great before of his eight UFC fights gone under the one and a half, 12 of his 15 career, not to a decision and, you know, nine of a minute in the first round. It's again, two people who have finishing capabilities going against someone that can be finished. I like the under here. Yeah, man. I don't feel confident in the under just because it's, I think maybe I'd,

didn't realize even some of the numbers he threw out at me, but I can just see a world where this hangs around a little bit, but I am on Alonzo Midefield to get the job done. Sirkinov, I think he's just done. I think he is just finished. Yeah, talk about like a real like falloff. Like he came to the UFC looking pretty good and he is just cannot get it together now. I know it's super, it's super weird. He came in pretty unheralded.

and then just made a hell of a debut, won a few big fights. And then since then it just, when he took the big step up, it fell off entirely. He's lost four or five, six of his last eight. His wins are Patrick Cummins, which I'm not sure how much that win matters. And Jimmy Crute, more importantly, though, he did the thing that I, to me is the clear a sign that a fighter is done. When they make the cut down, they say, hey, you know, I'm not having success at 205. I'm going to cut to middleweight.

Immediately doesn't have success at middleweight and just says, F it, I'm going back up. A slight heavy weight bout. He failed in his two middleweight shots. He's, I think he is just shot. And so I think Menofield's still got a little juice. Middlefield's pretty good at defending the takedowns. If Sarkinov can't get takedowns, he's definitely dead like sitting dark. and even if he can, I think Minifield can maybe defend long enough to get back to his feet

and where again he is the apex predator in this match in that regard. So I took Minifield straight at minus 200. It's the only straight action bet I have. I've got a few other straight wagers tied in parlayes, but it's the only empty straight action bet I have. Yeah, Sarkinov was a minus 440 against Vulcanolz de Mear just five years ago and got knocked out in 28 seconds. and then his next fight after that, he was a minus 175 against Glover to share. Sports crazy, man.

That is stunning to think that he was that. Like, that just shows really where Glover was at that period of his career. Facts. I mean, this sport, dude, it's... Who knows what the landscape looks like five years from now? I mean, it's crazy to think about it. Hell, Serkenov could somehow be the champion. Wow, this is the run.

It starts right now. Again, Glover became the champion. pin so who can say I just think he's done he's 36 I think I think he's finished so I'm taking minifield all right menofield it is let's keep it rolling the last fight on the main card it is a men's bantam weight bout we got manna martinez manna martinez going up against brandon davis right now you can get martinez for minus 155 Davis for plus 135 over under set of two and a half over minus 135 under plus 105 um so I took the fight does not go to a decision, another violence bet.

Don't have the stats, don't have the numbers really to back this one up as much as the two previous fights. It's the vibes. It's sort of like the styles that they fight. It's very reminiscent of the John Castaneda Daniel Santos fight that happened a couple weeks ago that I took the fight doesn't go to a decision on. Cash did no biggie. By the way that they fight. These guys come in, they pressure, they don't stop coming. I mean, go back in, like, Martinez was getting dominated by Ronnie Lawrence throughout the first two rounds of his fight at UFC 271.

And then the round three, he just came alive, dropped Lawrence twice, almost got him in an arm bar. Like, this guy was going for finishes the entire time. He does not quit despite getting, you know, arguably 10-8ed the first two rounds. Like, he's got the motor in him. He's got the finishing capability. He's got big knockout power. Davis coming off a knockout loss where he got iced by Dona Baccaroll. I don't know if I trust the chin as much, but if I don't, I mean, he can make fights chaotic.

He's not afraid to get into a brawl. And I can see that happening here. I can see these guys just going in and trading and someone getting finished. So I like the price of minus 110. So I took it does not go to a decision. I like what you said because I do think that this will turn into a pretty chaotic brawl. I just, I like Manda Martinez, you know. I think he's got a little more juice.

Yeah, I think he's got more juice than brand. Davis. James Krauss guy. Love what Kraus has been doing with Gloria MMA Fitness. Davis isn't going to take him down a hundred times like Ronnie Lawrence did. I just like Martinez. Normally at this price, minus 155, I just bet Martinez straight. Instead, though, parlayed him up. Parlayed him up. Oh. Parlayed him up with Jonathan Martinez. Little Martinez parley for you, actually. Nice. Paying out plus 144 on the Martinez.

Martinez Parley. Nice, because we had so much success with the Randy Parley. Let's keep the name Parley train going. Yeah, look. The Randy Parley failed because Randy Costa isn't very good at fighting. And that was a mistake on our part. But I think the Martinez Parle is going to hit. So plus 144, I took the Martinez Parlay.

And we'll, you know, I don't have anything as fun as we did with the Randy Parley. I tried to think of something couldn't come up with anything. I mean, let's just cut it to short. Let's start calling it the Marty Parlet. The Marty Parley. Get Kamar Usman. Can we add him in here? Just Marty Usman?

Nice. That was actually nice. Marty Parle, I support you there. I do think that Mena Martinez gets this dunked. I love it. So that's where I'm at. I don't have much else to add to this fight. All right.

Let's keep it rolling. Prelims. It is a men's bantamweight bout. We have a Raphael, a Sunsau, going up against Victor Henry. Right now you can get Victor Henry. Big favorite off of his debut. He is going at minus 330, Raphael, Sunsau coming back at plus to 75. What a flip the script. Last time out against Barcells, he was like a plus 400. Now we're getting him at minus 330 against the, you know, an accomplished veteran of Sun Sal, but the age is getting up there. I don't have anything on this

fight right now. My mind could be changed if you say something juicy. it's not going to be. Then tell me what you have. Let me pitch you. Let me pitch you here. I am better listeners, fans, friends who are downloaded and listen to this podcast. Let me tell you, I've made bad bets on this card already. You probably could figure suss out the ones you think are me being a little stupid.

I've been stupid on this. This is probably the stupidest bet I've made. But I'm staying by it for a couple of reasons. I'm taking half-fail a son's out. I'm not taking them straight, though. because yeah sure plus two seventy five like that's that's a lot of number there give me a sunts out by decision at plus 500 that's the number i'm on it's the bet i'm on a couple of factors in this the biggest one the primary one is i like rafel a sunts out he's an

a tttlanta guy technically a tt alfredi his own own gym up there but he trains at the a ttlanta dudes it's a gym i used to train at back in the day when i trained great guy love them got to got to rep the home team didn't mention that about Ben Davis. Ben Davis, bit of a traitor. From Atlanta, fights out of Mississippi, Connor, so another reason not to back Ben Davis.

Brandon Davis? Yeah, sorry, Brandon Davis. Don't know why I said Ben Davis. But yeah, so, Hafeel of Sunsal, Atlanta guy, reping him. The other reasons here are, I know Victor Indy looked great in his debut, but I know a Sunsau's old, Henry is not a spring chicken.

Dude's like 35, approaching 36. A lot of experience, you know, out in Japan and Pankras, some of those organizations. But he has never been a true world beater. And Hafeu Asunsao has really only lost to top guys. So this could be one of those where a Sunsau is old and past it, but he looks a little better than the line looks at least. So on that. And just my other thoughts here are that a Sunsau is. I think he is a fundamentally really, really sound fighter.

He's a really difficult fighter to face for most dudes. And I'm not sold on Henry. So Henry's never been stopped, and Assunzau is not a big finisher. 11 of his 14 UFC and WC wins gone to decision. So at plus 500, I probably would have just taken a shot on a Sunsau at a straight underdog anyway, just because I'm a mark. But at plus 500, I'm going to take the shot on him. for by decision.

So this gym that he trains at, you know, we're talking through this. It's Ascension MMA and Alpharetta? Yeah. So it's a, I think it's ATT Alpharetta. It's the actually maybe he has his own now. But so the ATT Atlanta is run by a hundred calcarno Nero. It's an ATT affiliate whenever they've got, whenever any of those guys who have made to the U.S.

A bigger orgs have fights. They usually go down to coconut. Creek do the big training there. There is another adjunct gym with the Lima brothers, you know, Pelotor, Pelotor Douglas Lima, Diego Lima, UFC veteran, tough veteran. They have an Alpharetta gym. That's also an ATT affiliate. Sunsau used to train out of that.

It's possible that he now has his own also offshoot. I haven't been up to the gym since COVID, so I'm not. Yeah, so according to Tapology, it's ascension MMA in Alpharet. which the old 3,004 is actually where I am born and raised from. I think I'm going to have to bet Raphael Sonsau here. If I'm being totally honest with you, you said you couldn't talk me into it. I had no idea that he has a gym in my hometown. I mean, I know exactly where this is.

I'm looking at it on a map. Like we're talking about we got the Kroger, the Mickey D's. Like, I played some use baseball and basketball around here. And we got a Sunsout training right smack in the middle of this. I mean, this is the hometown boy. I mean, I'm going to have to do this. I'm kind of vamping for time as I look over this map. This is, you said you weren't going to be able to talk me into it.

I mean, this is pretty crazy, right by this Walmart. I mean, we got the slopes. This is, this is crazy. Yeah, I always want to support people from my Raphael Sunsaw. That's the bet. There you go. I'll throw a little half unit on a Sunsau. Is he going to lose?

I don't know. I threw a quarter unit on the by decision at plus 500 because the number is so big. But yeah, it really is. He used to come to ATST Atlanta all the time with the Lima brothers for the pro trainings and stuff. And he's just a good dude. Reping the Home Squad, always been a fan. I think he's a solid fighter. I'm going to take a shot here against the guy that it just feels weird the Victor Henney's

this big a favorite. And maybe he'll prove me, you know, wrong and that he deserved to be, but just not super, super sold on him. So it took the shot. We'll see what happens. Yes. I'm down. So I just mapped it. This is my old house so I can give out the old Addy, the old John Kula Drive in Alpharetta. I hope someone listening lives in your old house. I hope one of your fans like that would be absolutely incredible. I live in the house that the Connor Burks is from, hails from. 16 minute drive 16 minute drive and I could have been training with a sun sounsel and in Atlanta 16 minutes is around the corner yeah this was this was this was suburb's yeah this was suburbs before I uh my parents moved into downtown Atlanta uh but yeah 16 minutes take old bethany road that's where I used to go to uh you know some open house parties back in the day this is uh wow I have to bet a sunset I have no choice uh I haven't placed the bet yet but I might be able to get talked into a a little bit of decision action, if that's what we want to do.

No, no props up on D.K. at the moment. But, uh, yeah, you could, you could find it some, some other books, I'm sure. Let's make the argument, dude. He's got a win over the champ, beat Marlon Mariahs. Dude, he's, at his peak, he was one of the five best Bannam weights in the world. He's not that anymore, but I'm not sure he's, if you look at his losses, they've all been to pretty good guys. I'm just not sure Victor Henry's on them.

on that level, so. Well, we're certainly going to find out, aren't we? We are. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western. Visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions.

All right. Let's keep it moving. Let's keep it moving. Sorry, a nice trip down memory lane there. Next up, we have a men's middleweight bout. is Nick Maximov going up against Jacob Malcoun. Right now you can have Maximoff for minus 140. Malkoon for plus 120.

Fight goes minus 250. Fight does not plus 200. Yeah. So the, you know, the chalk soup parlay of the over one and a half in the main event. I added the over one and a half here with Sarkanov menafield to not go to a decision to finish the parlay, three legs. wrestlers doing some wrestling or it turns into a striking battle

which I don't really fear either of them getting finished but if you just look at it let's break it down each of these guys has four UFC fights each of them got finished early in the first round of one of their fights the other three for each have gone the full 15 minutes across those three fights that have gone to a decision

Nick Maximoff goes 17 for 36 on takedowns. Jacob Malkoon goes 21 of 54 on takedowns. So across six fights, these guys attempted 90 combined takedowns. I'm going to go out on a limb here and assume... That's a lot of takedowns. That someone's probably going to go for a takedown here. What if what are the odds on nobody goes for a takedown? Can we find some back to give us action on that?

It has to be like. It has to be like, plus a thousand, plus 10,000, plus a hundred thousand. Like, what are we talking here? I think the real actually Barnburner bet to make in this one, you'd have to wait till later in the week to all the props respectively drop is who has more takedowns? who finishes the fight with more takedowns. Yeah, it's not available yet, but I'd love to see the line on that. I'm interested. I'm intrigued, even.

So that's my bet over one and a half. I have no action on this so we can move on, but I'm rooting for you, just because, you know, who doesn't love some wrestling? Yeah, I mean, sure. Most takedowns land at Nick Maximoff minus 160. Can I get a most takedown's attempted line? where we can really get in on some action. Really start cooking a soup up there, huh? I might have to have to have some fun and maybe make a play on most takedowns landed.

Rule number three, betting's supposed to be fun. I mean, Malcun, plus 130. You know, have yourself a day. I'm not touching this fight, but you have yourself a day. Yeah, I don't know if I'm going to lock that in. I'll sit on that a little bit longer. I'll sit on that a little bit longer. All right, let's keep it rolling.

Let's go to the next fight. It is a women's straw way about Pierre Arriguez, going up against Sam Hughes. You like that roll of the tongue there. That's just what we do around here. Sam Hughes, right now you can have her as the underdog plus 150. Pierre Rodriguez coming back at minus 175. The fight goes to a decision minus 275. Fight does not go plus 215. Like you are staying away from Maximoff Malcun. I am staying away from Rodriguez Hughes. Tell me what you got. I'm taking Rodriguez here. Sam Hughes, not very good at defending takedowns. Pierre Rodriguez, It's not like a big wrestler, but she can do it and looks pretty good when she has attempted them.

I think she's just got a lot more juice than Sam Hughes. Not a big Sam Hughes supporter. Pierre Rodriguez, A. No. The way she moves, she's a more confident fighter than Sam Hughes. She's a better fighter. She can get the leg kicks going on the feet. I think she can outstrike Sam Hughes. I think she can.

Sam Hughes is a bad wrestler. So I think she can find success with that if she wants it. And, you know, at its most basic, it's most simple, Pierre Rodriguez never lost, doesn't know how to lose. Sam Hughes knows how to lose. She's done it. That's what they say. Sam Hughes knows how to lose. And she's done it a lot.

So I'm taking the undefeated fighter. I'm taking Pierre Rodriguez. I have her in a two-leg parlay with another piece still to come. So I have two more bets on this card. One of them is the other leg to this parley with Pierre Rodriguez. All right. I like to hear it and I'm cheering for you. I'm hoping the best.

Perfect. And with that, it means we have to move on to our next fight. What could it be? It's a prelim bout. I can tell you that much. And it is taking place in the men's flyweight division. Let's go! It is C.J. Vargarra going up against Tatsuro.

Tyara. I feel like I botched that. I think it's Tyra. I believe you're correct. Tatsuro Tyra. Sorry about that there. Right now you can get Tyra for minus 225. C.J. Fragar plus 190, yada, yada.

Over, under is set at. Do we even need to hear the over? Are we even interested in that? No. The over is minus 200 if you, if you're into that. I'm so interested in that because that means the under. Is plus. Slaver.

170. I'm not going to lie. I missed that. I got plus 160. So I actually missed out on the plus 170 action, unfortunately. I got 165. Oh, wow. We're just all over the place.

If you want to bet it now, you can bet it at plus 170. Maybe it goes up even more. What we need to talk about, though, is what we really need to get into here is just going to go ahead and say it. C.J. Vergara. enemy of the state, enemy of the nation of no-beds-barred, enemy of the brand, enemy of the pod. We gotta give them another chance, you know? What's the deal with the Instagram bio, bet the over while you can, slot machine emoji?

You know, it could be anything. It feels like a personal attack. It's what it does. It feels like a personal attack towards us. but I don't know why it would be that way because we're not betting against him we're betting against boredom we're betting against him

him not ascending to the level I'd be happy for him to win just as long as he does in 12 and a half minutes or less you know I I can't lie it's it's shaking me to my core you know I almost did him up and was just like yo at the pod next time if you're really feeling

like it but yeah dude I mean I'd be lying if I said I wasn't scared. I mean, what is that? What am I looking at it right now? I was expecting maybe him to take it down at some point. And listen, I'm on Tatsuro Taira's Instagram page. His bio is obviously in Japanese.

That's where he's from. I mean, I'm nervous to put it into a translator and see if it says something similar. I'm not even going to do it because I don't need that energy in my life, Connor. Because I have the guarantee of flywood unders. And regardless of what C.J. Vergara says and does, that's just not, it doesn't matter because we're going to get the results that the gods have deigned must, must be true. So C.J. Vergara, that's the thing is, I know he's had two decisions in his two UFC fights. But before that, he was on a hell of a. finishing run.

Dude, huge knock on power. Yeah, he doesn't have to be an over guy. So I'm hoping there's a miscommunication. Something has happened. He's not adding the pod. But C.G. Fulgar, if you're adding the pod, let us know. We will have you on to explain your villainy to the millions and millions of listeners.

I haven't looked at the numbers recently. I think it might be billions now. I haven't checked. I haven't done the math lately. But, I mean, we could be looking at. some one championship potential listenership out there. Yeah, I mean, I really don't know what to say.

It's a little scary, but in all seriousness, Gregara does have power at 125. He brings pressure. I mean, he's always moving forward. He's not afraid to throw. Maybe he wilts the young, I think, I believe he's 22 years old. Not a ton of experience on the UFC level. Maybe he wilts Tyra that way.

Or maybe Tatsura. Tira is a very dangerous contender. He is serious submission abilities. Holds a little bit of power in his hands at 125 as well. We saw him get a knockdown last time out, and maybe he gets the finish there. I mean, there are paths where this fight ends early. Outside of us knowing that the under is a lock and never loses, I legitimately just think it can and should happen here.

Tira is a dynamic grappler for Garra. Like I said, man, his run up to the UFC, including his contender series fight, I mean, he was putting dudes away. So I just, I think that there's, I think this is a get-or-get-got. Either we're going to get a submission or big-KO. I like the underbet in general. And because it's flyweight, I love the underbet. All right, sweet. That's what we're rolling with.

I mean, didn't really have to talk much there. We knew what we were going to go with. Let's finish it off. What do you say we closed this thing out? Got to catch my breath. I was frantically looking for my water bottle. I'm parched after this morning discussion. I'll break the fourth wall here as I enjoy this water.

This guy who's probably like 90 floors up, I'm obviously in New York City, just chilling on a balcony. He's been chilling out there. I think he's just having a morning cup of coffee, but it. It's vibes. Looks like a nice view to take in. That's a guy that looks like he bets flyweight unders. I mean, that's how you get to the 90th floor of any building, you know? You bet flyweight unders.

sick balcony all right let's do it last fight welterweight bout it is mike jackson going up against pete rodriguez right now you can get rodriguez for minus 660 mike jackson for plus 490 over under set at one and a half over plus 210 under minus 265 another violence bet for me not much to say here i'm on the under one and a half i'm on the fight doesn't go to a decision uh mike jackson not a ufc fighter uh he's is just, I'd go as far to say he's not really a professional fighter caliber guy. It's a photographer. Yes.

He fought a professional fighter in Mickey Gull and he got finished in 45 seconds. And then we kind of had the circus affair with CM Punk. Dean Barry, the eye-gouging thing was ridiculous. Yeah, and Pete Rodriguez, he is a professional fighter. I mean. Questionably so, but yes. Yes, yes. Yeah, I can't really argue with that.

He did run into a buzz sol of Jack Delamattelana last time out. My guy, Jack D. It's, you know, I'm trying to find the words here to make the really solid argument. But Pete Rodriguez, he has heavy hands. He's 10 of his 11 wins across pro and amateur by first round knockout. And I think that's how this one's going to stay patient. No, you can get a UFC contract with this win. And just, I mean, the career of Mike Jackson, it has to come to an end eventually.

And I think this is it. Yeah, I don't know why Mike Jackson is even getting this fight. Like, I genuinely don't. That's going off a win. It's going off a win. It's just, I mean, that's cool. You don't have to keep people who win. And you can just look, you can use your eyeballs and know who should and shouldn't be here.

But here we are. I have a bet down. this is a bet that no one should follow. It's every brain cell in my head is saying, this is very stupid to bet Pete Rodriguez at this lofty, lofty number. In no world does this man deserve to be a nearly minus 700 favorite. But I don't know, Connor, if you were paying attention earlier, when I said that I had a parlay bet down,

that I had two bets, one of them parlayed was Piero Rodriguez. and I already had the Martinez Parley. And how are you not, you got two Martinez and two Rodriguez's on, how are you not going to take the Rodriguez Parley? I mean, so much success with the Randy Parley. Why not just keep this train rolling, baby? I know. You know, there's nothing I love more than a gimmick bet.

And yes, this number is juiced to the moon and objectively awful. but I don't care. I'm taking the Rodriguez parley minus 122 for that part of the two Rodriguez is together, and we'll hope for a good day. And that's really all I can say at this one. Yeah, I mean, you're going to find out right off the bat how the day is going to be. You get to know immediately whether this fails or not, which is nice. I will just say if you're a reasonable person, like honestly, I think that there is clear value on Mike Jackson at plus 500.

whatever just because there's no world in which Rodriguez should be this big a favorite but that's not the gimmick so I'm living the gimmick yeah I don't know dude I kind of feel like Pete Rodriguez is just going to go in here and knock Mike Jackson out

I mean he should he just shouldn't be priced at minus 700 or whatever the hell is Mike Jackson Mickey Gall's best win? I'm not looking at his resume off the top of my head, but he didn't ever beat a lot of good people. There's no way it's his best win, but... Nah, yeah, I know. He spent his entire career in the UFC.

So it's what it is. But he did get a win in 45 seconds. CM Punk is probably, you know, his best win. Let's be real. Multiple time. What are weird little trifecta? CM Punk, Mickey Gall and Mike Jackson. It's all just odd. Everything about this is weird. But yeah, that's my bet. We can wrap this up. I have one more parlay that I didn't mention. Okay, that's your bet. That's the card. Let's hear this parlay.

The parlay is, I parlayed three other outcomes that we'd already talked about. So we don't have to go back into it. But if there's one thing we've conclusively established over the history of the 20 episodes, by the way, this is episode 20 for No Betts Barred. Let's go us. Thank you, No Bet's Bard Nation. You guys are, you're killing it. If there's one thing we've learned and established, it's the Flyweight Undiers hit. And I don't know if you were paying attention.

There happened to be three flyweight fights on this card. So I said, F it, let's tie all three of them in a nice little bow. Funnily enough, all three of them are plus money. So you get a big, tasty line. Parlay three flyweight unders plus 1430 is the payout on that parlay. So I'm going to win the, when they do what they're supposed to do, when they cash the tickets that they always do, I'm going to be eating a filet mignon before UFC 280. I'm going to be just having some tasty, tasty treats on Saturday night.

Yeah, I did. I had some fun. I parlayed up the, the Tyra Vergaara under and the Asgraw of Roy Val under that. I got that at plus 433. Plus 433. Still delightful. Yeah.

Let's hope that that comes through for us. Nothing would make me happier. Oh, dude, dude, I can lose. I really want to be. clear I could lose every single bet on this card, but if the flywood under's hit, I will be happy. That is, I have an emotional investment in this. Obviously, you know, we should put it out there. Please bet responsibly the flyweight under thing is obviously a stick.

You know, it's not actually a lot of, it's a responsible bet that never loses. Please, please gamble responsibly. They're not coming to my mentions if one of these goes over about how you lost everything. But that's- I've already had people in the mentions being like, I don't know about the fly-way under's this weekend, boss, and I'm like, I do because they never fail. Let's just believe. You have to believe it.

Yes, I believe, and I bet on them, and I staked my actual money on it. So I'm hoping that they come through as well. But, you know, touch a side. You know, a little bit of discipline never hurt anybody. But that's it, baby. We're done. That's it. That's UFC Apex 62.

We did it just a little bit over an hour, clean, tight. You know, the train got off the rails a couple times with the Tuivasa, with the Alpharetta. You know, I'm going down memory lane over here. I'm getting choked up thinking about my high school graduation 10 years ago. And Raphael Assonsov just became a bet. Haven't placed it yet. I'm going to figure out how to do that. My bets in no particular order because, actually they might be, but here we go.

Rodriguez Jackson under one and a half minus 190. Right, Todorovic, under one and a half minus 135. Serkenov-Menefield under 1.5-1-5, Tyra Vergaura under 2.5 plus 160. Ascarov-Royv, under 2.5 plus 105. Martinez-Davis does not go the distance, minus 110. Alexa Grasso, by decision, plus 120. I parlayed up Grasso Arrugio over one and a half minus 750.

Maximum-Malcun, over 1.5, minus 450. Serkanov-Menefield doesn't go to a decision minus 275. That pays out at minus 1113. I did Rodriguez Jackson doesn't go to a decision minus 450. Wright Todorovic doesn't go to a decision minus 550. A little boxing. Don't know if you know what's happening this weekend. Deonte Wilder Heleneas.

Fight does not go to a decision minus 650. That pays out of minus 150. And then obviously the aforementioned flywood under Parlay. Those are my bets. I'll add in a sunset at some point. Love it. As what seems to be par for the course of this point, when you've got maybe these lackluster cards,

I end up with a ton of bets because... Yeah, a ton of bets and then like halfway through the card, I'm like, why did I do this? Like, why am I not like incredibly disciplined on these cards? And then I'm like, next bullshit apex card, I'm going to be really disciplined. I'm going to choose like three or four spots and I'm just going to hammer those and come out ahead.

And then I end up with this card that I have, and I'm taking Raphael Sonsa at 40 years old off of four straight losses because he's from where I grew. up. And that's how you end up losing... That's how you end up in losing weeks, folks. That's how Vegas became Las Vegas. That is why that little spot in the desert isn't some ramshack will fly over town. It's just filled with people and money for that exact reason.

And I did the same, buddy. Because here, I've got Grasso Orujo under 4.5 of plus 180. Got Ascarov-hoevil under 2.5 plus 110. Totovic right over. one and a half, Costanza rule, plus 190, Torovic Wright, goes to Decision plus 450. Alonzo Minifield straight at minus 200. Hafeel is suns out by decision at plus 500. Tyra Vergarra, under two and a half plus 165, and I got three parlays coming at you.

The Martinez parley, Jonathan and Mata Martinez, pays out at plus 144. The Rodriguez parlay, Piera and Pete Rodriguez pays out at minus 122. And then breaking all the rules, the flyweight underparlay. You never parlay underdogs can't say it enough. But this time we did it, we parlayed three plus money bets. The flywood underdog parlay pays out at plus 1430. God, I can't wait for that one to hit. Boom.

Those are the bets. Do what you want with that information. Tail, fade. It doesn't matter to me because at the end of the day, this is just the boring salad with a, light vinegarette that gets us to the beautiful 5A wagu, perfectly cooked, perfectly seasoned steak that we will be having next week with UFC 280. It's a day card. I'm going to say it, middle of fall, I love a day card. 10 a.m. start on the East Coast here. I cannot wait for it.

Sometimes I'm jealous of the New Zealanders, you know, getting to enjoy, you know, waffles and eggs and coffee as they watch their fight cards. That's what I'm going to be doing for these prelims. To say I'm hyped, it's an understatement. It's, my mouth is watering for next week to be in Abu Dhabi. I hope yours is too. Couldn't be more. Can I, let me tell you one last thing about that fight card.

Because I don't know if you know this, but the MMA gods, they can be kind. Or maybe it's just the Georgia football gods because day card. no UGA football to even distract us. We can have full focus on the best fight card of the year to see my boy. Is Lamakachev finally become the UFC lightweight champion? Couldn't be more geared up for this fight card. Yeah, I'll go ahead and tell you. I think I'm cheering for Islam.

I think I'm cheering for Islam because I have that future ticket on him. It was my biggest future of the year. I did take a flyer before the Gaichi fight. on Oliver. His line was just way too big, but it's for less money. So money talks. I think I'm officially announcing my cheering for Islam, but man, Charles is hard to cheer against. Charles is so cool. Yeah, you should cheer for Islam because he's going to beat the hell out of Charles. I hate the confidence. I can't lie. I hate the confidence. I this is, I could not be more confident in a fight prediction. I've been saying this for like a year.

It makes me uneasy. I feel wildly confident in the outcome here. Despite the last 11 fights for Charles Olivera. Yeah. And not despite because of the last 11 fights. Like it's, I don't know what he's going to do. Barring something very fluky, I just don't see it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Wow. I will have to eat that crow because I have been incredibly vocal. Isamargev is the best lightweight in the world. I think he's going to. pants for all soul of error. I don't think I agree with you. I think I'm cheering for Islam, but I don't

agree with you. A lot of people don't. I just is what my eyes tell me. And if I'm wrong, then I'll have to reckon with that. But I don't think I'm wrong. I just don't know what's going to happen. There's not many things in this fight that could shock me. Islam's going to

plant him on his ass and then beat the shit out of him for 25 minutes or less. Charles is going to try a work a guard game, but it's, I don't think that's going to happen. I don't think you can submit Islam off your back. That's for next week. That's the discussion that happens next week. I guess I'll start per- well, no, we should be having a guest next week,

so maybe they can prepare their arguments against Mr. Michoud and Mr. Makashev. I'm tripped up on his name because I was watching tape last night, I've always said Machachev but then Brendan Fitzgerald said Makachia is way more fun it probably is how Brendan says All right well we're just

at this point we're just blabbering we're dilly dabbling UFC 280 enjoy UFC Apex 62 enjoy your appetizer don't get too full because next week is going to be sensational that's when we're back we'll have a guest

it's going to be electric that's when we are at our best pay-per-view week UFC 280 talk to you next week love you guys To the Vox Media Podcast Network.