MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Flyweights (And The Unders) FINALLY Get A Main Event At UFC Vegas 74

Episode Date: May 31, 2023

UFC Vegas 74 takes place this Saturday headlined by a flyweight showdown between Kai Kara-France and Amir Albazi, and you know what that means: the No Bets Barred boys are back with a thorough breakdown on all their favorite bets. Co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew celebrate the first non-title fight flyweight main event since 2017(!) by laying some action on their beloved 125ers, plus a ton of other bets up and down the card including some KSW action. This week's bets include the aforementioned Flyweight Unders, Jed comtinuing to reach into the gimmick bag, and even a little dissension on some prelim bouts. Tune in for Episode 47 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine,

available now, only from Audible. What is going on, y'all? We are back. It is another edition of No Bet's Barred. This time, UFC Apex 74. We are back in the friendly confines. But it's okay. It's okay because the main event, the main event of the evening on this week is none other than two men getting in there that weighed 125 pounds the day before. We get a flyweight main event.

This is going to be the, yes. Thank you. I was wondering. I was wondering. I was waiting for you to come in. We're getting the first men's flyweight non-title main event since 2017. first men's flyway main event period since 2020. This is well deserved after the week off.

I was like, oh man, we're going back to the apex. But not only are we getting the main event being a flyway fight, it's my guy don't blink high care of France as well. That's a good guy. This is my dream. Not only that, we're also getting a second men's flyweight bout. Tim Elliott back in the octagon. Tough, tough circumstances for him.

We can get into that a little bit later. but two men's 125ers on this card. I mean, this might as well be international fight week for men. I mean, we needed that week off to recharge because we knew all of the activity coming for us because, I mean, we got a heavyweight fight. You know, I love me, a heavyweight banger. We got a light heavyweight fight that's a spiritual.

We'll get into that because before, Connor, you know me. I'm a man who does the research. I put in the work. Do you know the things that have happened? since we last saw a non-title fight flyweight main event. Fill me in, please. August 5th, 2017, we all remember. Pettis Moreno, Mexico City, wonderful event.

Since then, we've had two World Cups since the last time Flyweight's main event, Connor. Just a few, like two months prior, Patrick Mahomes, you know him, Patrick Mahomes, pretty good at the old football, had just a few. been drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs the last time Flywates led a UFC card. Billboard's number one song was Despacito by Luis Fonzie and Daddy Yankee. Wow. And in movie theaters-Beeber on that too? He just the Bebes is on that. Love it.

In movie theaters, Connor, Spider-Man Homecoming, the first Spider-Man movie with Tom Holland. There have been three Spider-Man movies with Tom Holland since Flywights have main evented in a non-title fight. And this was, this was April of 2017? August 5th of 2017. August 5th of 2017. I was getting ready to start my final semester at UGA. That's, uh, that is how long it's been. That feels like an eternity ago. That, uh, yeah, I didn't even think of it as far as personal. I had been with MMA fighting for one year, just over one year, which also feels like an eternity ago. So it's crazy, man. It's crazy. Uh, but yeah, well, deserved, we're back, main event. Not only that, first men's flyweight fight since the April 29th

card with Cody Darden and Charles Johnson. So I mean, by the time fight night rolls around, we will have gone a full month, May. No men's flyweight fights. No men's flyweight fights. No men's flyweight may. That's what they've been calling it on the message boards. I don't know if you heard that, but, you know, you can't have too much excitement in the month of May. Just the disrespect for for our guys down on 125 is unbelievable. Cannot wait for that. UFC Apex 73, we did okay. I had a nice winning week.

Nothing too crazy. I had a good week. I finished up a little over four units, so hit several of the gimmicks. Chat GPT nailed it. Heavyweight overs hit. So, you know, we did all the things. That McKenzie Dern inside the distance, but I remember specifically talking on this show

about how that was going to be. be fun because there was going to be moments where it looked like she was going to finish. It was not fun. It was fun for like the first two rounds. And then when it started sinking in that like, oh man, like she's just probably not going to finish this. It was not fun. I regret making that better.

That was a, that was a tough one. I will say credit to her. She was trying. This wasn't. She was trying. This wasn't the Anja-Anon where she wasn't. She was putting the lumber to Angel Hill. The knee directly to Angel Hill's chin where she was completely.

completely wobbled into the hip toss. That one's going to haunt me for a while. But shout out to McKinsey Dern. Great stuff from her. Not only are we going to get into UFC Apex 74. I don't know if you got anything. KSW Coliseum 2 this Saturday. First time they did it,

it was the second biggest MMA show in history. 57,000 people live. They're doing it again this weekend. Pretty stacked card for KSW standards. I'm a big KSW guys. KSW rules. At the end of the show. I got a couple bets that I've already laid down and a couple more than I'm

in once the props dropped for them. So let's dive in. UFC Apex 74. We start the main event. Men's flyweight bout. That is the first time in the history of this show that main event has been followed by men's flyweight bout. And I have to say, feels good.

Feels good, man. This is our Super Bowl. It is our Super Bowl. Yes, absolutely. The culmination of men's flyweight. Also, not going to lie, it's kind of a banger. Oh, it's a super banger. Like, I am really looking forward to this fight.

Right now, Kai Kara France, minus 110. Amir al-Bazi, minus 110. I mean, this is a coin flip of a fight. You're getting two different stories here. Like, it's the jump for Amir, Kai, grizzled vet. It's, I think it's a tough fight for both guys, honestly. It's really who can have the success. I mean, a lot of people talking about Amir's grappling.

Kai's got great take-down defense. We saw it in that Ascar-A-R-A-Scarov fight. Like, fantastic takedown defense. But, I mean, Amir al-Bazi is no chump on the feet. Like, I think they're going to be trading. If it stays on the feet, we've seen Kai get put in compromising positions on the ground. We've seen him sub before. I think Amir al-Bazi can have success.

But I think Kai-Kara-France can have success, too, because I talked about the striking. I still think Kai-Cara-France is going to be the better striker here. He's got a ton of power in those hands at 125. It's tough. I mean, you know who I'm riding with. You know I have a bet on Kai Kara France. It doesn't really like, we're podcast only, but I'm rocking my Kai Kara France. Don't blink shirt right now.

It's as easy as that. I'm riding with my guy. I took him at minus 110. But it's no easy task. Miro Bozzi is 16 and 1 for a reason. Something that I did notice that is kind of weird. They're pretty close to the same age. Kikara France, double the fights.

I mean, he's been a very active, active dude. He's getting out there. He's scrapping all the time. When did they start? I don't actually know. I'm trying to remember off the top when that happened. But yeah, it doesn't totally surprise me. Kikea of France is a very, very active fighter.

And Albaazi, certainly early in his career, as I'm pulling it up and looking at it, did not do a whole ton of fighting. He's picked it up, you know, fought twice last year. But usually like one, maybe two. a year seems to be his cadence. Your thoughts on this fight. So I thought about chat GPTing this one because dead even fight, but I couldn't because, I mean, what if chat GPT went against you?

I knew where you were going. And that's the problem with us podcasting for this long. This is our 47th episode, Connor, by the way. We're coming up on the big 50. Big 5-0. Coming up on the big 5-0. So, you know, I know when things are going to happen for you sometimes. And how were you not going to pick KKF?

Like it was very, very clear what was going to happen here. And so I wasn't even going to pretend to even think about Al-Bazi. Now, as it so happens, I even agree in concept that KKF a little undervalued here. The difference in competition pretty stark. I mean, Al-Bazi doesn't have any wins nearly as good as something. that KKF has. KKF also has some losses to kind of the top tier of opposition, which is a bit tough.

Like maybe Al-Bazi is just one of those dudes. I'm not sure that he is, though. I think what we've seen from Kikar of France, his last few fights, I mean, he was competitive with Brandon Moreno before that body kick, put him down, and, you know, looked very good against Ascar, Ascarov and Cody Garbrand, obviously. I think he's there. I think if he can keep this on the feet, which he is historically pretty good at doing, I do believe he has an advantage with the Mitz.

So I'm taking Kai Kare, France. Obviously, we're taking the under. But the question is, what is the under? Connor. Okay. So can we talk about how slow the props have been? We're recording this right now on Wednesday morning. Just dropped.

Or at least I just see him on Draft Kings now. Oh, on Draft King Sportsbook. And what do they have? Just under three and a half? over under 3.5 minus 160 for the over under plus 130, which is great because in my notes, I have, I think they're going to set this line at 3.5 and if I can get plus money on that under, that'll be great. So plus 130 under 3 and a half, feel great about it. They do have the full pop suite down.

What if I told you the 4.5 was even money? I mean, I'm going to stick with the 3 and a half, but I have. I don't hate the four and a half one. I mean, you're getting a full extra five minutes and, you know, I guess, yeah, 30 cents is a decent, is a decent tradeoff. But honestly, man, I'm not going to lie. The sides aside, no pun intended there. I mean, I knew who I was going with going into this. I actually really like the fight doesn't go to a decision under four and a half, whatever you end up taking.

Like, these dudes are. Four of both of their last fives have ended before the fourth round. have ended inside of three rounds. I mean, Albazi, 14 of his 17 have not gone to a decision, and nine of those ended in the first round. Like, he has serious finishing capability. He's cashed flyweight under's force before one, very close to the bell back in December.

And then Kai, I mean, yeah, he was a little bit of a decision machine when he first got into the UFC, but of late, you said it, four or five have not gone to a decision. I mean, since this show has been involved, Kai has been pretty helpful, aside from when he fought Asker Asker, Ascarov, one of the enemies of flyweight under nation. So yeah, I mean, I am a fan of this under.

I mean, we knew we were going to take it. I love that it's five rounds. I love the stylistic matchup. I mean, I think both guys are alive for a knockout. And if Albazi does get it to the ground, dude, we have seen Kai put in tough positions. We have seen him sub before. You've lost for a finish there.

Yeah, I mean, I'm down for it. So, I mean, I think this is a great flyweight under main event. I'm glad it's not a Cody. Dird and Charlie Johnson five rounds. We might not get a flyweight main event for another six years if that was the one that came up. This needs to be a banger. Keep our 125ers up at the top of the car.

Let's go. Let's go. But yeah, so we're in full agreement then, which isn't surprising at all. Not surprising at all. All right. Let's move on to the co-main event. It is a men's featherweight bout. Alex Casares taking on Daniel Paneda.

Daniel Paneda just fought a few weeks ago and looked good doing it. First chat GPT bed was that? I think that that was first chat GPT bet, actually, now that I'm thinking about it. I mean, we just have to show some love. Like, just got to show some appreciation anytime Daniel Paneda fights. 45 professional fights for this man. He has achieved. Unbelievable.

Almost 30 wins? He has never won by a decision. This man is not here to get his hand raised. on the score of cards. He's here to make it known who won the fight. I mean, absolute beast, and he's coming back off like a pretty quick turnaround, and I don't really know who I like in terms of a side. I think this is going to be kind of a funky matchup. I'm only seeing one and a half right now, and it's like plus 160 for the under. I don't mind if the prop drops for the two and a half and it's like a playable price like a minus 125 or a minus 130 i i would not mind an

under two and a half in this fight under two and a half is much more palatable than than the one and a half don't like the under one and a half because like it feels like they could be going through some motions but maybe like a uh if there's a fight ends by submission at like a tasty line i doubt you'll get a good line but yes if there's something tasty there both of these dudes love to submit and love to get submitted. They love getting submitted. Paneda, sub six times, Casas, sub seven times, and they have a combined 26 wins by submission. Yeah, that's why I don't think you're going to get a good price on that prop.

But if you did, I would take it. One thing I just want to note, because I don't think the last time we talked about Paneda, I even realized it. This dude fought Mike Thomas Brown. He has been around forever. Forever. Ever. Like that's, I would have thought that anyone who fought MTV in the UFC had long been retired.

But nope, Daniel Paneda, just still just getting out there fighting four times a year or whatever it is. So I don't have a side. I think this is Casera surpassed for me. Paneda had looked pretty good at his last time out. But Casares has looked really good lately. Six or seven, loan losses to Sadiq Yusuf, who is very good. good and that was a competitive fight. I think the length for Casares can give Benadus some problems.

We saw him struggle a bit with Feeley in that regard. I don't feel confident laying the number, though. The number feels about right. I think the odds are pretty well set. But if I were to take a side, I'd be on Casares. All right. That is the co-main event. We keep it rolling on to the next fight a lightweight bout.

Jim Miller taking on Jared Gordon. Right now, Jared Gordon is sitting. at minus 180, Jim Miller coming back at plus 155. I thought about Gordon for a little bit. Then, you know, like getting knocked out a few weeks ago. I mean, I know it was a clash of heads, but he still went out cold. Don't really want to lay chalk on him. Then I thought about round two Jim Miller.

I mean, legendary guy. Legendary fighter. Played it last time. But then I looked at it. Jerry Gordon's been finished five times. only in the first and third round. Jared Gordon hates getting finished in the second round so much that he's never done it.

I don't know if it's going to happen. That's when he's in rhythm, you know, between minutes five and minutes 10, he's, he's fighting. It's an immoable force means an unstoppable object. However that saying goes, Jim Miller, round two Jim Miller is coming against round two,

Jared Gordon. One gets finished. One doesn't get finished. I mean, it's going to be a great round two if it makes it that part. It's going to be a great round too. I was the other side.

I kind of thought about playing Jim Miller for a minute. But again, I think these odds, at least on the straight action, are pretty good, right? He's 44. Yeah, I mean, you know. It's really old. Is he 44? I'm sorry. I might be thinking of Andreiro-Lovsky.

I think Jim Miller is 40. 40. He's going to make it to UFC 30. I'm sorry, he's 39. He's going to turn 40 in August. I'm sorry. That was disrespectful for to Jim Miller. I was thinking of Andrei-Lovsky.

When you said 44, I kind of thought you were just being facetious. And I was like, wait. Now, that's our Lobsky. Who we get into later this car? We're going to talk about Andre a little bit, a little bit later. But look, I think this fight probably, like, I think Jim Miller can win, but he's going to have to be able to wrestle because he has just, he's just going to get outworked on the feet. Jim, you know, Jim Gordon, not the right guy. Jared Gordon, just kind of a volume king on the feet.

And if you look at it outside of the Hernandez fight, which was a super high pace and where Jim Miller got the worst of it, he has only eclipsed 50 significant strikes once since 2017. The man is not throwing a lot and Jared Gordon is. Both dudes are pretty durable in regard, in that regard. So instead, I'm taking the over two and a half here because Miller really has only been finished by like dynamic. guys Charles Olivero Donald Soroni Michael Keesa that kind of guy and Gordon isn't much of a finisher and similarly mostly pretty good guys have gotten Jared Gordon out of there and almost 40 year old Jim Miller I'm not sure he's got got the juice in him to do it so I'm taking

the over two and a half but that's my only action here all right respect I don't mind that that at all I mean Jared Gordon is I mean I know he had the the Bobby Green fight but he is typically a a longer fighter in terms of his fight length. All right, we keep it moving to the second. Men's flyweight out on this car. It's Christmas, baby. It's Christmas. They're handing out free money in Vegas this week.

That's what they're saying. I mean, we can get into that in just one second. Tim Elliott taking on Victor Altamarano. I mean, let's go ahead and just talk about the under. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. What? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo, great idea.

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Yeah. They've gone to decisions. Altamarano. We have the same math on that. It's bad. Hey, listen, Altamorano. three of his four have gone to a decision. It's tough, but here's what I'm going to say.

Tim Elliott's been through a lot in the last few months. The James Krause situation, the Gina Mizani situation, the Kevin Krum, all the whole bundle, the whole kitten caboodle. It's, as they say, tough right now for Tim Elliott. He's gone to Twitter. It feels like he's more locked in forever than ever. It feels like he's more motivated than ever. And I just want to pull up two tweets, Just two tweets that Tim Elliott had this week. One, when asked about the fight, he said, I am going to finish him. I am done with three-round five.

Love that. They said, are you going to go for a K.O. or a submission? He said, I'm going to be searching for the K.O., but more importantly, I'm just going to go in there and do some wild shit. I mean, what am I going to do, not trust the guy? I mean, yeah, were you calling him a liar? Am I calling to him a liar? call Timeli the liar. Not after the run he's had. There's no way I'm calling this guy a liar. It feels like he is, he's a good faith man, and he is the good guy in all of this, and I'm not

going to call a good guy, liar. And that brings me to point number two. I played Tim Ellie, minus 160. I'm just going to go ahead and do it. And you know what I'm going to do it? I'm going to call it a bro bet. Just another bro having another bro's back. Need some support right now. Tim Leigh needs some support. He's down in the dumps. I'm going to support. Tim Elliott. I want to see him win. I want to see him get some mic time. I want to see this man, not just winning the octagon, but win in life. Because the situation that he's in right now, if you don't know it, Google it, uh, wife cheated on him with one of his best friends. It's tough is an understatement. Like, if I can actually put myself in his shoes, like furious doesn't even begin to describe how I would be. I would be, I'd probably be in jail. The fact that Tim Elliott is able to take it out on the this camp is really great stuff and hopefully he brings it to the octagon. So yeah, bro bet, Tim Elliott, took him in minus 160. If I lose, you know, I'm going down with a bro.

It's all right. I mean, what's great is we just saw not the same situation, but, you know, similar strokes of after McKinsey Dern beat Angela Hill down, the narrative is, I was taking my anger. I had a lot of anger from some other things going on and I took it out on her. in there. Tim Elliott is getting the exact same opportunity to do so. Didn't even consider that factor to the fight. It either goes one and two ways. It either goes, I had so much on my plate, I couldn't come in and perform, or that was my driving force, and I just absolutely beat ass. You got to water boy it, you know, just visualize your enemy across the cage from you.

I love it. My thought is that if we're going to hit this under it's going to be a submission not a KO. Just because Tim Elliott's kind of a funky grappler and Altamorano, he's only been subbed once professionally but he got R&C three times as an amateur.

Tim Elliott's a little bit funky. He's got some arms. He can, you know, maybe slide into Darsh if Altamorano takes a weak shot or something like that. So I think I would say if we're going to finish, give me a submission over a KO. But I love this bro bet.

I have a lot of action this week, but I may feel compelled. You know what? I'm jumping in, joining the bro. Let's go, bro. Just support another. Bro. Pro support and bros. Come on, man.

We're here to support Timmyel of it. What's one more bet? Hey, I actually have to say, I do have a lot of action this week between KSW and the UFC card. No parlets. I don't have a single parlay. Very reasonable. I have one, but it's a gimmick parlay that we'll get into because I only have one par-like open leg

that I could have taken for a parley inclusion. And so instead I'm just going to bet it straight, I think. Okay. All right. Well, that is the Tim Elliott fight. I'm probably just going to play fight. It doesn't go to a decision. It's still like plus 195. Not going to go crazy on it, but I'll be there.

I'll be there. Tim Elliott finished where we're popping champagne. Let's keep it rolling. women's flyweight bout bank card stacked with flyweight bouts men and women it's Corrine Silva taken on Ketlin Soza and right now you can have Corrine Silva for the cheap price of minus 225

Ketland Soza coming back at plus 190 I mean I guess it was just the time off I don't know what it is but I'm just going Flywood Under is crazy here because I also So, I love it. Played the under two and a half in this one.

I can definitely see that. I'll be honest, I did not do a ton of research on this fight. We had a long weekend. We were doing other things. You want to tell you why I took it, the research behind it? I watched two fights for each of them, and I can understand the thought. I do think, I mean, Kareen Silva is a very good, is a finisher. She gets finisher, and I think she's going to be the bigger woman.

I just didn't watch enough of Caitlin Sozo to be like, I feel confident in making bet here. So, Corrine Silva is the female Daniel Paneda. I mean, they are a match made in heaven. They should, you know, really think about going on a date after this card because

Green Silva has never won by a decision as well. 15 wins for all of them coming via finish. Also, 18 over 19 pro bouts have gone under the two and a half. Kelent Sos, on the other hand, 12 versus 16, have not gone to a decision.

They have finishing capabilities, Silva much more than Sosa. Both have been finished numerous times. I think that this can happen. I think we're very live to finish under the 12 and a half. Also, like, all those stats there, like just like neither of them ever going to decisions and getting under two and a halfs. I feel like if this was a men's fight, it would be lined differently. Like if all these stats applied to a men's...

Now, that's an interesting angle. If all these stats applied to like a men's... a lightweight fight, I feel like the under two and a half would be like minus 225 or something. That's interesting. That's very interesting. Obviously, styles makes fights and the way that you finish people is obviously going to have an indication on the line. But with how often these girls do not go to a decision, I will play the minus 105 on it. I'm cool with that.

I'll also let you know. I mean, I haven't fully done the research. But as I had started looking into it, like two thirds of women's flyweight bouts this year have not gone to decision. So, you know, things happen in that regard for you over well. Something to keep an eye on. I love it. Let's keep it moving. Last fight on the main card, Jamie Malarkey, taking in short notice replacement, Mohamed John Nymov. Right now, I mean, Malarkey is just like a ridiculously big favorite. He's like minus 385, minus 435 plus 350 coming back for Nymov. Interesting note. Two late reporting.

placement fighters, both from Tajikistan. Connor, see, you know me. Oh, this is it. This isn't it. This isn't it. This isn't it. I wanted this to be it. I really did, but I can't bet name of.

I could talk myself into betting Gafferov. I cannot bet name. Yeah, dude, it's a tall task, man. It's a tall task. Jamie Malarkey is, all right. Can we talk about Jamie Malarkey going from the biggest underdog on the card against Garam, and now he is the biggest favorite on the card against Naimov.

That just right there indicates that I don't really want any part of this fight. Yeah, no part of this fight. It is, and that's it. So you and I are exactly here because, like, I don't know, it wouldn't totally stun me if Naimov came in and pulled something off here, but he hasn't beaten anybody good. I have a healthy skepticism for dudes coming off a tough enough. enough because like that promotion has produced one good fighter ever so and that was natan levy

so you know whatever i i just can't be in but i really wanted the tajikistan parley i was so ready as i was like looking over the card for it was like well just write that one down chalk it up easy parley and then then i just couldn't do it yeah i mean it'd be it'd have huge odds but Yeah, I mean, maybe if the price is right on the fight doesn't go to a decision, I mean, I could probably get talked into that. I could see Jeremy Malarkey just working them down as the fight goes on. Yeah, maybe, but I already have a ton of action and simply don't need to just be finding more to find it.

But speaking of, what is the price on this? Let me try and pull this up and make a parlay here. We can move on. It'll be hefty. Let's move on to the prelims. a welterweight bout Oleski Eliza

Zelesky Dos Santos kind of a tongue twister there for me versus Abu Bakar Nirmaga Madov right now

I mean I think it's Zaleski is a very very short favorite minus 115 to Nirmagamadov's minus 105

I just have to say going back and watching the tape the fact that the last time we saw Zoleski do Santos in the octagon

was the infamous referee not calling the fight against Benoit St. Denis back at UFC 267 is crazy to me. That feels like a fever dream. I was like, how has he not fought since then? But he hasn't, and he looked fantastic, and Benoit Santhani has now won two straight fights in the UFC. But then on the other side, man, I mean, you have a 17 and 3, Nirmaga Meadow of coming in here. classic wrestler-striker matchup. Can Abu get the wrestling going? If he does, he wins.

And then obviously, you got to go to it every time. Fighters with Magamette in their name. Don't we have a rule about Magamette? I mean, fighters with Magamette in their last name are 52, 9, and 1 in UFC history. 85%, 86%, somewhere right around there. That's tough to go against. I mean, you have expertly laid out exactly the reason I'll be backing Abu Bakar Nmugammergometov because at minus 105, that's a 50, 51% probability of winning.

80% with the Madov rule? That's just math. I'm getting 30 free percentage points here. When else do you get a guy with the name Nirmargo Madov at just about. not even odds. It doesn't happen. Now, is Ava Bacar not nearly as good as other Narumako Madoves? Absolutely.

Totally true. Is EZ, yes, pretty good at defending takedowns? Also pretty true. But I'm just going with the Magamad rule. That's what we're doing. We're locked in. I'm feeling fine about it. I don't have anything, but I'm going to support you here.

I'm going to cheer for it because I just want that number to get as big as possible. I want people with Magomed in their name to be like, 1111 and like 16 in the inverse of j silva yeah yeah uh j ellis come on man alice alice that's a respect uh the fact that we both know who we're talking about in that case is quite ridiculous uh i don't have anything and i already have a lot of action down but i'm up cheering for the magamad name stat because it's just so ridiculous wow fantastic let's Let's keep, we're going to make this. Let's keep it rolling, dude.

We're churning, and I think we're churning out some good information here. Knock on wood, hopefully we are. But next up, it's a men's bantamweight fight. John Castaneda taking on the second short notice, Tajikistan fighter, Mawin, Gaforov. Right now, you can get Castaneda for minus 132, Gaforov at plus 1,000. 13. Am I seeing that? Do I need to update that?

No, pretty much. That's right. Pretty much right there. Your thoughts on this fight? I have zero thoughts. I did not do a... After I realized that I could not be betting on Namov, I did not research this fight at all.

So I don't want to give false promises to people out there listening. I know nothing about these two men. So I went back and watched Gaffirov's contender series fight against Chad and Hallegar. I mean, he looked pretty good. He ended up losing a split decision. He got knocked down in the first round.

But he fought back and fought pretty well throughout the last two rounds. Probably the right decision with the splity. But I mean, he's fought in a lot of high-level promotions won LFA, ACB. And I mean, he's

beaten some good dudes. He also is just like a all-holy finish or 10 knockouts, seven submissions. Multiple spinning backkick finishes, which I'm a huge fan of. Which is, I'm a huge fan of. I mean, and then the way Castaneda, who I believe I was riding in his last fight against Daniel Santos, when he couldn't get him out of there, I mean, it was all just kind of downhill from there.

I mean, both of his UFC wins are by first-round knockout. I think if Gaforov can survive, which I really think he can, he's a tough. dude, he's never been finished. If he can survive, I think he, I think he can win this fight. I took a dog shot, plus 120 on the Tajikistan short notice. You were so close to being in the Tajikistan parlay. I actually was not even ever, even remotely close to playing nine months. Though that price is huge.

That price is huge. It's a very large number. Yeah, I saw, I saw Goferov open it like plus 285 on some book. for like three minutes, I was like, whoa. And by the time I looked into it, he was down to like plus 130. Yeah, sounds sure.

I guess that I have nothing on this fight. All right, let's keep it rolling. It is a heavyweight bout. Andre, the 44-year-old Arlovsky that I mentioned earlier, taking on Dantel Maze. And in a shocking turn of events, Dantel Maze finds himself as the favorite, at minus 125 to Andre Arloffsky's plus 105.

Yeah, I mean, like, it's just like, do I want to trust 44-year-old Andre Arlofsky or Dantel Mays? And like, you don't have to trust either. I was just going to say the real answer is neither, but I certainly absolutely do not want to trust my money with Don'tale Mays. After the Homdi fight, he cannot be trusted. He lost again since then. Cannot trust that man.

But please tell me why you're taking the over because I think that's a good blood. I'm taking the over because heavyweight overs are my lifeblood. They're 10 and 7 on the year, Connor. We're up over two units on heavyweight overs collectively. 10 and 7, it's solid showing. And that can't really even, you know, take into consideration all the fun that's had watching heavyweights fight for 15 minutes at a time. It's the best. And I think we're in luck. I think we're getting another 15 here. Andreelovsky is the patron saint of heavyweight over.

Seven of his last 10 have gone to decision. All seven of those who are Andreelowski wins. The three that didn't go to decision, Andreelovsky losses. The man, when the man loses, he loses quickly, and so you don't have to sweat out losing the heavyweight over late. Or he's just going to drag you into deep waters and beat you with experience. So Don'tale Mays is a guy who can have that very thing done to him. You reference the homie fight, tough fight, the Sakai fight, just an awful, awful, clinchy against the fence. And if there's one man who knows how to clinch you against the fence and hold on to you for 15 minutes, buddy, it's Andreiolovsky. So, you know, there's always the world where

maybe Dantel Mays knocks out, Andrei Alowski is 44 years old. I don't think that that's incredibly likely. I do think this fight's going to go long. So I even feel good about this bet just outside of betting it for the fact that I'm betting every heavyweight over. But here's where I run into a bit of a problem, kind of. I do love just quickly, I do love when we give like the disclaimer like I did with the main event.

I actually like the under in this fight. I'm not just doing it for a gimmick here. This isn't me committing to a bit. This is actually something I would. This is not me playing with actual money that I worked to earn for a stupid bit for a podcast. This is me actually liking the bet. Look, the longer this podcast goes on, the less real bets I'm ever going to have. I'm just going to be riding.

Honestly. Honestly. But here's why I run into a problem. And that problem is exactly this. This is the first leg of my gimmick parley because I'm a big Androovsky supporter. I kind of want to bet him an underdog odds for the reason. you said you won't really trust Don't tell Mays. I sure don't trust Don't trust on Tondell Mays,

but trust in 44 year old, trust in 44 year old Andreelovsky's tough. And yet I'm betting Dantel Mays as part of a two-leg parley because Godspeed. It's going to be tough. But when the Tajikistan parlay was ripped from me by the littlest bit of logic and reason that I possess,

I had to find a new parlay. and what else do you find on this card? There are two men on this card with apostrophies in their names. So we're making the apostrophe parlay with Dantel Mays and David Blackshear. It's probably not going to win, but this at least has the other side of it where if Andrei O'Olofsky does do the thing where he gets beat very early and my heavyweight over loses, that means I still have cashed the leg on the Dantel Maze. part of the parlay so one half of the gimmick parley heavyweight overs that's where we're at here

i i just i don't know what to say i mean it's it's the old at it friends don't let friends bet on dantel me's i i fell into the trap at one point in my life a low point of my life i fell into the trap uh against tomdi and every second of that 15 minutes was just pure terror, torture. It was just a bad experience. And now you're going to do it against the grizzled vet and Andrei Arlovsky. I mean, Hamdi, though, was on banned substances. So it really wasn't Don't Dantel Mays's fault.

You got to consider that. Don't tell Mays is famous for the video of him humping the dude's face in the fight, right? I mean, if we talk about the, if we talk about the actual, you know, the intangibles here, I mean, Don't they have a 6-6 with an 81-inch range? Yeah, my issue is he's not that fast. Like, he's...

I mean, he's definitely not fast, like, if we're really getting into it. I know, but that's the thing. Like, when you look at the dudes who have really, who have pulled off the knocking on, Andrei Aloski senseless and getting those quick finishes, like, say what you want about Marcos for Jereda Lima. Not a tremendous fighter, but the dude is explosive, particularly early on in a fight.

And that's just not. Not who Don't tell made. Tom Aspinall, explosive. Jairos, Jazeera, Jazeera, Jazeera, Zeno Rosenstrike, explosive. It's not, it's just not who Dontail Mays is. He can get moved around the cage. He's not that fast with the hands.

Alavsky, I'll never be shocked. He's 44, but he just, he's so veteran in this game. I don't, it seems a little unlikely that Dantel pulls out an early win here. Well, listen, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to support Dantel Mays on Saturday. Do you don't have to? I'm not betting on them. No, no, no, no, no, stop, please, please.

I'm definitely not betting on them. I'm just going to support him because of your bet. All right. Marshall's buyers travel far and wide, hustling for great deals on amazing gifts, so you don't have to. They've bagged this season's Italian leather handbags. Designer.

Handpicked the finest sweaters from the rest. Ooh, cashmere. Landed makeup pallets from the brands you love. of rushes too and hustled all those wishless topping toys so plush our buyers have got you covered marshals we get the deals you gift the good stuff hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure this fall get double points on every qualified stay life's the trip make the most of it at best western visit bestwestern.com for complete terms and conditions we spend entirely too long on that fight let's keep it rolling. Men's bantamweight bout. A lot of bantamweight fights on this card, too. Daniel Santos

taking on Johnny Munoz, Jr. Right now you can have Santos for the ethical price of minus 205. Johnny Munoz, Jr., coming back at plus 175. I went against Daniel Santos' last fight, and it bit me, dude. I mean, this guy is tough as nails, and he just keeps walking forward. Knock him down, don't care, getting up, going to keep walking forward. Like, he has that Charles Oliver in, and there's something in the water down at Shootbox.

And, I mean, I think this stylistically works very well for him in a fight against Johnny Munoz. I think he's just going to move forward. We've seen Munoz's chin touched. Doesn't like to get hit that much. He has a great grappling game, but if he takes him down, I think Daniel Santos is just going to get back up.

He's a black belt himself. I think there's a lot of, lot of advantages that Daniel Santos has and I think he's eventually going to get Johnny Munoz out of there. So you taking Santos? I'm taking Santos. Inside the distance. So a very, very logical breakdown entirely reasonable.

I'm going against you. And I want to be extremely clear when I say this. No one should follow me on this particular journey. I want to hear what you have. I have the most concrete of data points, really. You threw out some good ones. But let me give you the concrete data point that I think you must have missed, because if you had, you wouldn't feel as confident. I had to have missed it.

Johnny Munoz, Jr. has not defeated anyone with a Wikipedia page. He's fought two dudes who have wiki pages, lost to them both. But Daniel Santos does not have a Wikipedia page. Johnny Munoz is undefeated against gentlemen without Wikipedia pages. is that's right, a perfect 12-0 against the unwicked who Daniel Santos is among. And so I'm going, I'm betting this entirely as a joke just to see if Johnny Munoz can continue to defeat the unwicked. I mean, that's, I can't, I can't argue with that. I wish I could. I mean, does Johnny Munoz

just quiver in his boots when he... He gets starstruck. Yeah, when he sees Wikipedia. Yeah, exactly. Wikipedia pages. The lights are too bright when when Johnny Munoz sees that they have a Wikipedia page. I love that. I like that we're going head-to-head. That will be a fun. You may have win this one, but I had to test it out.

I wanted to see. I mean, Daniel Santos does get hit. I mean, he is aggressive. Like, anyone can get caught, and especially Daniel Santos. We've seen him get caught a few times, but he just hasn't been put out and he just keeps coming back. All right. Let's keep it rolling. Women's Straw Way, Bow, Jin Ufrey, taking on Elise Re, the people's main event.

I am talking low-level women's in the main event. negative striking differentials. This is going to be a good one. Love negative striking diffs. Especially when both of them have it. I mean, it should be just a great affair.

I mean, Elise Reed's ground game is something to write home about. We've talked a lot on this card about fighters and why would you trust them? Both of these women don't make a great account

for why you would trust them with your money if you're going to place a wager on them. But here I stand. backing Elise Reid Let's go! Yes, your honor as well!

Not just me, Connor, but... Chat TPT! The advancements of technology, the robots say Elise Reid is going to win this one. This is the chat GPT bed of the week, baby. Give me the breakdown, please.

I need the breakdown. Look, I was looking for a fight to Chad GPT. Didn't want to do the main event because I knew where we were going vibes-wise, and I was like, you know what needs... You know what needs the science of artificial intelligence, low-level women's mixed martial arts.

That's what needs to size. Chad, GPT, is here to tell you that the fight progressed with both fighters showcasing their skills, each gaining moments of dominance, Reed's precision strikes found the mark on several occasions, leaving Frey with visible signs of damage, but Frey's experience louder to weather

the storm or retaliate with calculated takedowns and ground control. After a brief moment of suspense, the announcer revealed Elise Reid emerged victorious, securing a hard-fought win, which maybe that's what happens. Maybe it doesn't. But I do believe Elise Reed's going to get this W

because the robots haven't led me wrong. Five and three on the year with the chat GPT bet. We are starting to build momentum. In all seriousness, GinuFrey is 11 and 8. She's 38 years old. She's 38 is a huge state of point. And her last fight,

she got knocked out in 45 seconds to Pollyanna Viana, who No, Finisher. Big supporter. Finisher by submission. First knockout since 2015. I mean, Elise Reed is not the greatest fire in the world, but she will have a striking

advantage in this situation. If Genufre really game plans and comes in here smart, it will be to take down Elise Reed. Elise Reid really has shown nothing once it goes to the ground game. And we have seen Genufre use top control before. I just have no faith in her doing that and I don't know if she's going to get the opportunity. I think Elise Reed is going to have some success

and me saying all of this, this is just a nice. 1.1 to win one easy, clean. I am not going heavy on this. Let me give you one more thing just to seal the deal for you because I don't know if you know this, but Elise Reed, Army reservist.

You think the week after Memorial Day, she's not going to be coming here, bringing her best? You kidding me? She probably fought on Memorial Day weekend. just to get some reps in. Absolutely not. I mean, this is just the soon as she could fight after Memorial Day.

Yeah, if they had a fight card on Saturday, she'd have been doing it, but they didn't. So here she is showing out for the troops. That's a great point. That's a great point. Elise Reid, thank you for your service. And we keep it rolling right on to the next fight. Men's Bantamway Bowd again. I mean, we are, they picked and choose the weight classes for this one.

The Juan Lacerda taking on Demand-Blakshare, pretty closely lined fight. but right now you can have Luan Wacerda minus 145 Damien Blackshear plus 125 I know you talked about the apostory thing but I think we're going to be button heads here as well that's reasonable because I'll be honest when I looked into this fight I didn't love it but I loved it better than the Tajikistan parley yeah probably better probably gonna have better luck there I mean Lacerda like I felt like everyone was pretty impressed with his performance against Cody

Stamen Yeah, UFC debut against not the easiest opponent in the world. Now he's back. I mean, I think he's just going to, like, kind of have an edge and advantage, like anywhere. Like, he's got good striking. I think he'll be able to outstrike Blackshare. I think the takedowns will be there if he wants them. Now, like, he could get taken down by DeMond.

That's the path for me. Blackshare's got to get the takedowns. And he struggled to really consistently pull that off in his UFC career. but if he had much more success than the regional level, if he can get that going, then maybe he can pull it off. For sure. I mean, another concern for Blackshare backers is gas tank is it's not terrible, but like it is not one of his strong points.

We have seen him fade down the stretch and some fights. Yeah, like I said, not my favorite parlay I've ever done, but I wanted a parlay. and it was this or the almost sure to lose, DiGica Stan Parlet. Man, that'll be so cool if the Gigi Stan Parlay does hit. I may throw like a tenth of a unit down just to burn $4. It's going to be a big payout, two plus money plays.

All right, we keep it rolling. Light, heavyweight bout, Maxim Grishon. The last fight on the card, we are moving through this thing. Taking on Felipe Lins right now. Maxime Grish, a slight favorite coming in here. minus 135 lens plus 115 um yeah dude i mean both these guys are getting pretty up there in age lens is 37 but something that i thought about lens as a dog but he's had eight canceled fights since 2020 and he the majority of those a canceled fight against maxing grishish and yes including a

cancel fight against maxing grishian and the majority of those he was the one withdrawing um like yeah he looked pretty good earlier this year against an ancient osp but that kind of speaks for itself Grishin too man I mean he's 39 and he's had five canceled fights in the last two years like these guys are they aren't consistently getting into the octagon they're much

older it's not like they're about to make a title run I just I just stayed away like we did the last time we broke this fight down I'm treating this as a spiritual heavyweight over I wonder if I had anything the last time like I don't even remember that

I do remember breaking this down because that was the first time I was like, this is a spiritual heavyweight overfight, and then it didn't happen. Look, Lens was a PFL heavyweight champion. Grishen fought for the M1 heavyweight championship, fought for the, fought in the UFC at heavyweight, has missed weight and had to fight heavyweight several times

a heavyweight. I think I'm picking up what you're putting down. It feels spiritually heavyweighty. So I'm taking the over, over two and a half minus 155. I don't know. This could be a real sweaty, bad fight pretty quickly if we don't get an early finish. So it's every heavyweight over realistically, but I'm going to keep riding them. And that's all the breakdown you're going to get.

I love it. I love it. That is UFC Apex 74. I mean, that was tight. We were on it. I don't know if it's the summer weather. I don't know if it's the flyweight being back. It's a refresher. We just had to breathe it. We're ready to go. 100%. 100%. Now we got 13 straight weeks of it. Gotta love it. You got to love it. I mean, we're going to go all the way through two. the fall. I did want to touch on KSW Coliseum. Let's go. If you're chilling on Saturday

and you have never watched KSW, I mean, this is the card to tune into. I have become a huge fan of KSW. It's just a show. It's just a spectacle from the ring girls to the ring announcer to the fights

themselves. I mean, it's just this Polish spectacle. I'm absolutely enamored by it. It's quickly become one of my favorite promotions. And it's produced some pretty decent UFC talent as well. I mean, you've got the likes of Jan Blahovich, Mateus Gamrod, Driecus Duplasi. Like, I think Yawanna fought in it. There has been some serious talent that's come through KSW. Last time they did this, 57,000 people showed up. The second biggest MMA show ever behind Pride Shockwave, even beat out

UFC 193 in Australia. Five championship fights on that. I mean, they had Puginowski, who if you've never watched a Puginowski fight, he's fighting again this weekend. They had Mamad Kaledov. He's fighting in this weekend. How about this? Ariani Lipski versus Diana Belbita for the flyweight title in that one.

Mateus Gamrot defended his lightweight belt. Their UFC names littered throughout this thing. I mean, it was absolutely insanity. But this card, not as good, not five title fights. There's still three title fights. Puginovsky's on it again. Kali Doves on it again. And then there's this guy who we could end up seeing in the UFC very soon.

I actually hope we do it. Saladin Parnas. He's a French fighter. He's looking to become the third double champion in KSW history. Mateus Gamron. Pretty good name there. And Roberto Soldich, hopefully he doesn't end up the post KSW career as Roberto Soldiers.

But it's a pretty good card. I'm making a case for it. It almost sounds like this is a KSW advertisement. But starts at noon Eastern, I think. I mean, it's just a beautiful timing and everything. If you're going to get the pay-per-view, I think it's like $10. And then on top of everything I just said,

it's going to be in front of like 55,000 people and like a real deal, UEFA certified soccer stadium. So it's going to be pretty tight. And I do have a couple bets. I won't dive crazy. crazy deep into these. But I did play the aforementioned Saladin Parnas. He's going up. He already has the interim lightweight title, so he'll have two belts on Saturday. He's going for the real thing.

Took him at minus 200. I think he's the truth. I mean, he is just incredibly well-rounded. He's 17 and 1. He avenged his one loss. He's only 25. It's just a well-roundedness. I think he gets it done here. I think he has a serious bright future in MMA. Another one. You know of Parnas. Yeah, I love KSW. KSW puts on the best show in MMA and has for years and years. It's just nonstop entertainment.

It is just, I mean, when the ring girl gets up there with the giant flag, instead of walking around the octagon with the card of what round it is, they're on this giant stage and they have this crazy camera angle and they wave this giant flag of what round it is. It's electric. Dude, every, whenever, I don't want to go too deep down the rabbit hole because we've been keeping it tidy, but whenever fans are like, oh, the UFC is great at promotion. I'm like, no, they're terrible.

They have a great roster. A lot of things you can compliment them on. But watch a KSW event and watch a random UFC fight night. And the difference could not be, I mean, even just look at this fight poster. It's so much more creative and interesting than a UFC fight poster. It is, their product is one of the best viewing experience you can get. It's always worth the pay-per-view price. And Saladin Parnas is the real deal.

Oh, yeah. Like, it is legit, legit, like, legit. I watched back some of his tape, like, super good. That's really all I can say is, like, he is just well-rounded as hell. Like, he can strike well. He can throw beautiful kicks. He's got good boxing. He's got a great ground game.

He's got some missions. He really is super sick. If he loses because he moves up, so be it. I would love to see this kid in the UFC one day. It would be fantastic. He'll make it there not too long. He's the future of French fighting, right? I love it.

I love it. All respect to Francis Ngano, heavyweight champion of the world. But getting up there in age, this dude is the next guy. Another thing I love about KSW is that the champions fighting gold gloves. It's just such a great touch. It's such a great touch. The ring guy has like this giant microphone too Like it has like this huge elongated stick on it

I'm getting hype just thinking about it A couple look at the poster you notice the champions have have a little bit of gold adornment around the Oh, I didn't I didn't I mean the poster is great I mean it's like the actual like coliseum look It's so good dude it's so good Other bets that I have quickly here Roman Smanski The money line I took him at minus 225 So he fought this guy Mersaia last year

And if you follow KSW I know you know everyone knows Mersaya injured his hand in that one But it doesn't matter to me I mean he was getting beat Pillar to Post And in that one Smansky was a minus 215

Now he beat him Pillar to Post Goes in knocks another dude out In his most recent fight and now they're rematching we're getting essentially the same price I just have to take it at that point

we saw this in we saw this in PFL the other a few months ago it was like the same thing it's a reasonable bet and then last but not at least don't have a line on it yet if it's a playable line

I will be smashing it but the Spilka versus Puginowski fight listen to Pugianowski is essentially Polish Fador like he is a legend

and he is here for a good time, not a long time. Seven of his last eight, 11 of his last 14, have all gone under the one and a half. Only one of them has been to a decision. These guys are going to come in here and chuck them, dude. There's no doubt about it,

and someone's going to fall. Spilka is like, he has a boxing background. Like a pretty decent boxer at that. Like, he's fought Derek Chazore. He's fought Deonti Wilder. He was like 24 and 5 or something. But he got knocked out in all five of his losses. If you look at his M.M.

record two, he's 2 and O, both early finish wins. Yeah, under one and a half in that one. Yeah, this is not, heavyweight overs do not extend to KSW. Yeah, that is not their purview. I would be shocked if, I really think these guys are just going to, Bell is going to ring, they're going to go to the center of the octagon, and they're going to throw until someone falls. I think this fight will last less than three minutes total.

I'm going to follow you on the Parnasse. I'm going to parlay him up with Reed Frey goes to decision. I think. Because as I sort of just have Reed Frey goes to decision sitting around here, I think I'll parlay that up with Parnassan.

Shout out. I really hope he wins. It's always a treat to watch him fight. I did have one more, Thomas Romanoowski. If you watched the MMAR awards last year,

he cashed twice as a big underdog in 2022 and then won two more times as a slight favorite. He just keeps doing it. I mean, something that's really crazy about him,

like actually like insanity. He fights at middleweight and he has a 66 inch reach, which is just... Tehrex Arms. If he fought Israel Adasanya, the middleweight champion of the UFC, he would be at a 14-inch reach disadvantage and a six-inch height disadvantage. And he is fighting for the vacant KSW middleweight title that I believe Roberto Solditch left vacant.

Or Calvin T.RX arms doesn't mean anything. Just ask the goat, Artem Lobov. That's what people say about Tamas. He's the middleweight Artham Lobov He also is killing it Five straight wins Second longest Streak in KSW behind Phil de Freeze

Three first round KOs I mean I'm rocking and rolling Does Parnas not have 5.0 I know he lost One kind of fluky one I would have assumed That he was back on

He lost to the dude That he then beat Yeah, I know he avenged out. Four straight. Four straight. Four straight. Okay. Yeah.

So yeah, that's it. KSW. Should be a great night. I mean, there are few things in this world that I enjoy more than afternoon cards. Like, if we could just, let's just start every UFC card at like 11.30 a.m.

I would be a much happier man. My life quality would go up. I agree. But you know, my life quality is going up because we did this in under an hour. baby let's go that is it a little uh spring action you know it's it's the summer of the heat we turned up the heat on this one nice and tight uh i mean just gave out an unbelievable amount of bets bangers bangers bangers bangers bangers i would go over all the bets but you're just

going to have to listen because we have to do this in under an hour just because we want to that's it next week 289 we're going to canada let's go to canada Woo-hoo! Love y'all!