MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | Going All In On Valentina Shevchenko | UFC 275 Best Bets

Episode Date: June 8, 2022

Things are a little bit different this week for the No Bets Barred crew as Conner Burks is out of the country, so instead, Jed Meshew is joined by MMA Fighting writer Mike Heck to break down the best bets for UFC 275 — and without Conner to keep him in line, Jed puts down wagers on five different underdogs, plus an all-in bet on Valentina Shevchenko. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded.

It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible. ...up, y'all.

It's your boy, Jed Meshu, and we are back for another episode of No, Betts, Bard, and you might be wondering to yourself, self, why is Jed introing this? Where is the esteemed? Burks, he's not here. He's abandoned us. We're going to get to that in a moment, but he's off gallivanting around the world in Paris and France and all those highfalutin places. He's leaving you, he's leaving me. And so we had to make the call. We had to get somebody

to step in, to step up. And I think we found the best guy possible, you know, a man I, I'm sure you're very well familiar with, maybe the greatest guy at MMA fighting It's questionable. He's certainly better than that no-good Connor Berks who left us high and dry. Mr. Mike, heck. Mike, how are we doing? We're doing great after that incredible intro. I mean, poor Connor just taking a beating on all ends on the MMA hour here.

I mean, good God. Vance not even here to defend himself, Jed. Who takes vacations, Mike? That's who does that? It's not an acceptable thing to do, especially when we're coming off a bad week. because there's no other way to put it. Neither of us did all that great last week. Both he and I had losing efforts at UFC Vegas 56.

I don't have his bets from there in front of me to recap. I know that he finished down a number of units, and I also finished down a number of units, though I blame that almost entirely on one singular outcome, and it's the fact that for whatever reasons, the gods hate me. And I don't know why they do, Mike, but in her entire career, Caroline Kovilkevich, she never gets finishes.

That's a thing she's never gotten one in the UFC. And I was dead right about everything on that fight. I was like, I don't understand why Kovalkavich is the underdog. She won the last fight. All of the signs point to her winning this fight. It makes zero possible sense that she would be the underdog. And so she's going to win, and she's going to win by decision because it's the only thing she's ever done.

And then what the hell happens? She goes out and she chokes out, Felice Erig. and my weekend comes to a sad, sad end. But, you know, we press on, buddy. That's what we do here. And we're going to press on to a really good card. UFC, well, really good might be a stretch. Let's say that's a stretch.

A really good main card. It's a really good main card, exactly. 275 is, it's pay-per-view. It's a Singapore pay-per-view. And for the fans, this is going to be a little bit of a different episode, a little less structure. We're still going to have vague structure here, but we're mostly just kind of going to shoot from the hip here. Talk about the fights you want to talk about. See the stories, the things that we think are interesting here, especially from a gambling perspective, and see where it takes us.

I do have Connor was, even though he's a dirty rotten scoundrel who abandoned me, he was kind enough to at least send me his picks. So I will get to those through the course of business here. But we have an important place to start, Mike, a really important place. And frankly, there's no better person to talk about this place than you. Because the main event of UFC 275, it's a big one. It's the light heavyweight title. It's light heavyweight champion Glover to share, putting his belt on the line against the guy I have. And I think one more of our co-panelists that the MMA fighting rankings have as the number one light heavyweight in the world, Yiri Prakashka.

Now you, Mike, we're going to go right into the betting perspective here because you, have been banging the drum for Glover. For months, you are the captain of the Glover's going to beat Yeri Perashka Bandwagon. And I think, I think you, you've got me on the ropes. You've got me, I'm right there. I'm ready to commit to the underdog bet. I just, I need a little push.

I need you to finish. Body head, body, body, body head, Mike. So put it away. Sell me on why Glover Tashara is going to retain his title as the best light heavyweight in the world. Okay, so Glover just needs one takedown and he retains the title. I mean, that's literally, that's the premise of this whole fight. Can Glover, can Yuri Perashka keep Glover to share from bringing this fight to the ground?

Because if he can, he has a very good chance to win this fight. And even on the feet, Pashka is a wild man. He's got power. But you know what else's power? The 42-year-old man has power. Just ask good old Yanni Blako about that sharp little... He's got that old man strength? That sharp little left hand that was the beginning of the end of that championship fight back at October.

I cannot get Dominic Reyes in full mount on Yuri Prahashka out of my head, Jed. I can't get out of my head. And even the dog who somehow even in Florida finds a way to get involved in these conversations, he agrees with me that Glover-Deshirea is probably going to have to walk through a little bit of fire. He's just going to tackle Yuri Prahashka. He's going to find his way into full mount. And when he does that, Yuri ain't getting up.

He's just going to sleep. He's getting strangled and that's it. So here's what I'll say, Jed. Here's what I'll say. If you are very confident in a Yuri Pahashka victory, good on you. If you want to take the Yuri Pahashka, I believe it's minus 140, KOTKO, betting line.

Have at it. But make sure you head yourself. with that plus 350, Glover to share by submission prop because, I mean, at least save yourself something. All right? Because if this doesn't happen,

you're getting plus 350 on Glover by submission. That is an insane line that has just a tremendous amount of value for a fight that if it goes to the ground in any way, shape, or form, that will be the result of this fight. It will be Glover to Share it by submission. So, can Yuri keep it up?

If he can't, he's going to get submitted on Saturday. it's going to happen very quickly. So if you're going, Yuri, hedge that bet with the plus 350. I believe that's what it is on Draft Kings as we speak right now. Yes, plus 350. Hedge yourself with a plus 350 to share it by submission prop. Okay.

So I want to talk through this some more because like I said, you haven't quite hit the finishing combo on me, but I'm there because while you say you can't get the Dominic Reyes in full mount out of your head, I, the thing that, actually has has moved me closer to your line of thinking is what you said at the start is when I was go back and watching tape eerie is a wild man year he has also been like hurt in both of his ufc fights vulcan osdemir caught him with a good one had him you know not wobbled wobbled but certainly had him stunned and backing up and obviously dominic reyes landed a monster shot on him right before he in turn got finished like a moment's later and it's and like you said the i i i saw

Sort of when I was just kind of vaguely thinking about this fight was like, well, it's a takedown or bust fight, right? It's two outcomes. Either the taketowns happen or they don't. But I also think there's a world where Glover can just knock out Erie. Certainly, I think the more likely scenario is he would hurt him and then tackle him and then submit him. But I am, I'm starting to really think that he just has a lot of ways to win. He can knock him out on the feet. He can tackle him and just pound him out against the cage.

He can find the submission. whereas Uri is just just has the one way. Yeri has never has won one decision in his entire career. I have no idea. I can't think I'll stop my head if I remember him ever submitting a person. He is all gas, no brakes, baby. That's why we love him. And it's why it would be great if he was the late heavyweight champion.

But the big thing, the thing that's holding me back, the E-blocker here, here's what I need you to sell me on. Gloverter shares 42 years old, Mike. He's 42. He's fist fighting at the age of 42, and that is, he is demonstrably not as good as he was when he was younger and couldn't win the title. So now that he's 42 and worse, he is somehow the champion and he's going to retain his belt, I need you to make me forget that he's 42. Tell me why that shouldn't be the deciding factor for me. Because before this incredible six-fight winning streak that he's on right now, he was drinking like a fish.

At least that's what you told our old Guillermo, Cruz. So tech, before this streak started, he was probably like 50 in fighting years. But since kind of putting the hooch down a little bit, he's gotten younger. He's gotten younger. Here's another thing, Jed, that I'll throw in there, that the great John Anick brought up that I did. You don't even really think about. Yerry's a get-or-get-got guy. But you know who also is a get-or-get-got guy when the going gets tough?

Glover Tashire is a get-or-get-got guy. If he feels like he's down two rounds in a fight, guess what he's going to do, Jed? He's going to get right after Yuri, and he's going to try to knock his face into the third row. And he's going to go out, get or get God. So he actually has some semblance of chaos to bring to the table as well, even at 42 years of age. And guess what happens when you're 42 years of age or you're the champion of the world? You don't have a lot left. So you're just going to empty that tank, and you're just going to get everything you can out of these last couple of fights.

And from what I understand, from speaking with Mr. Anick, who actually went to Connecticut a couple of weeks ago to visit with Glover Tashara, he told me that just the mere mention of Yuri Perashka's name gets him all giddy inside. It's not even just like, well, this guy's a tough fight. Like, I got to bind my peas and cues. It's just like, yes, I get to fight that guy at UFC 275. Strike conditioning on point. Power on point. everything on point. Healthiest he's ever been in his career, he's telling people.

And people, it's not just saying it. People have actually seen it. And they see the attitude. They see the look on his face. He is excited to fight this guy. This isn't just like, oh, I better get him down. I'm going to submit him attitude from Glover to Chera. This is a, I hope we get into the fire pit because I'm ready.

I'm ready if that's where we want to go. So Glover's just got this confidence to him. He's got this kind of mature. this old man, I'm just better than you, and I have way more experience in these big time situations than you will ever have Yuri Perashka. So bring your best son, bring your top knot, bring it all, because I've seen it before. I've seen it and I've probably beaten it at some point in my career. I'm excited to see it. I think Glover is a very good chance to win this fight.

And again, like you said, Glover could knock out Yuri on the feet. He is way more ways to win this fight than Yuri Perashka does. Yuri just brings such an exciting style that we tend to forget that. But like you said, Dominic heard him, but then you just got spinning elbowed into the ether world. But Glover can stop Yuri with strikes. He can submit him. If this fight gets to the ground, it's over. It's over.

So I don't understand the hesitation here from a lot of people, especially if you're super in on Yerry, how you just don't put a little something on one of these props for Glover. I think this is a hedge fight ever. if there ever was one, if you're going for Yuri. If you're all in on Phrashka and you're not hedging Glover here, I think you're making a horrible mistake. I will for sure agree with you on that. I think it is very obvious how to share can win this fight, and there are just some interesting, you know,

props that are value hedges there for you. I'm not as confident about this by submission, honestly, just because I do think that probably is the most likely way he wins, but for whatever reason, the upset in my mind is being visualized as as a TKO with just punches from on top. And that's very weirdly at plus 800 odds for Glover to share to win by KOTKO, which I honestly think I might just throw a little flyer on because that's that's pretty big number. But you've done it, Mike.

You have convinced me. Yes. I'm in. This is the gloat. I think he's going to win and then he's going to retire. If he doesn't, Glover's screwing up. You go out on top, my guy. He's going to go.

he's going to get the job done. So my first bet of the evening is going to be on Glover Toshara at plus. Where's he out right now? He's at plus 170. That's just a big number. Plus 170 is a pretty big number. I mean, that's like a 36% win probability, something like that. 37, maybe 38.

But yeah, that's a huge number. And also, just because, you know, I like math. Mike, who doesn't like math? Glover. Five and three is an underdog. Five and three is an underdog And his last three fights he was an underdog Obviously won them all

That's why he has the belt So he's looking to make it four in a row That's pretty big time for Glover right there That's that man is paying off some bills If you've been backing him for the past three years So And also let me just throw Let me just throw

Another name out there Who has nothing to do with this fight But actually plays an important role In my opinion Glover to share is training with Alex Bejada on the daily. So it's not like he's not seeing insane striking ability. It's not like he's seeing insane power.

It's not like he's seeing spinning stuff and just outlandish type of striking. He's seeing this every single day from this guy. So it's not like I just, Yuri can bring some different things to it, but not a lot that Glover doesn't see on a, like on a daily basis. Like flip-flop one or the other, two very violent guys, two incredible strikers, but two guys who aren't terrific.

pick on the ground. And I bet Glover has a lot of success of that room against Alex Beheada. So I just, I feel really good about this Glover pick. I feel really good about it. And you have, you have been, you have been steady the whole time. There's been no deviation from you for months and months. I mean, since this fight, since we knew this fight was happening, you have been staunchly in the Glover camp. And you wore me down. You wore me down. I'm here. I'm with you. I'm on Glover. Also, I do, there's another bet here on this, on this particular fight that I've got added in. We'll talk about that in a second because it's important to mention me and that that scoundrel

Connor Berks, we have a head-to-head once again. We've been having a few of those. It's been, it's been tough going for Connor. He is 0-2 against me in, in the head-to-head matchups. Granted, some of, you know, the Holly Home, Ketland Vieira, obviously that was a very contentious decision. I was on Ketland Fiera though and won that, but he is taking you, Bajshka, he got him at, let me look up the number that Connor texts me for. He got him at pretty close to current value, minus 185. So not that different from what the current line is. So,

but he and I are doing yet another Civil War. I'm looking to go three and no against him, really run that score up. And then my other bet on this card, we've both alluded to it, actually, in one way or another. I think taking the under three and a half rounds is a perfectly fine bet, but I have a fight does not go the distance in a parlay. That number's at minus 500, so, because I do agree with you or everyone. That Yuri Pashka, the man is going to win or he is going to lose, but he is not going to take 25 minutes to do either of those things.

So this fight is not going to, the judge is not necessary here. Minus 500 is a fine parlay piece. I've got it in a three-leg parlay. I'll tell you about the other legs as we get to them. I like them. I like your picks. By the way, if you're feeling a little froggy, if you're having a super up night,

you've won all your bets. Like, you're just going ham on this entire card and you're just feeling it. And you're like, wow, that Mike Heckeye, he's been very confident this whole time. The Glover-Teshire wins in round one prop is plus 800. So just putting that out into the universe if you're feeling a little frisky.

I mean, I love friscieness. So plus 800 wins in round one. I mean, why even stop there? Why not go Glovercheria wins in round one by submission? Oh, there you go. It's plus 1k right there. Plus 1,100 round two. I mean, there's so much fun that can be had here.

Gambling is so much fun. And there's so many fun things. I have a bet that I don't have a line on yet, but I'm really excited about we're going to talk about much further down the card. That's a very stupid bet. But I have a specific reason for it. And whenever the line drops, it's going to be like plus 10,000. And it's going to be the most electrifying minute of my life to see if this hits.

We'll get to that in a minute. That's what you can call a tease in the business. So stay tuned to the pod, guys, as we build towards that. Simons has your holiday outfits sorted. Be ready to wow in a wardrobe designed to celebrate the season. Revel in luxurious velvet, shimmering satin, elegant silhouettes, and sparkling details. Whether you're going full glam or keeping a casual, you're sure to shine bright in our festive party wear, no matter the dress code.

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but first we've got to, we've obviously got to talk about the co-main event. It is a women's flyweight title fight between Valentina Shibchenko, the goat, and Tyler Santos. And I have many, many thoughts here. Mike, I really doubt you'll disagree with any of them. But I want to, I want to offer you the floor. What do you have to say about this fight, any gambling lines, any thoughts that you might have in on the co-main event and the greatest female fighter we've ever seen? I mean, there's some interesting prop bets here, but listen, we all, it's the, we're not, we're just delaying the inevitable here. We know what's going to happen.

Valentina Shochenko is going to retain her title. She's going to win this fight. My dog is barking again. Again, he agrees with me. It's the, maybe it's the new wolf pack sound effect when you and Connor agree on a pick again. But say when you get the dogs barking like we had with Glover, because it's not technically a wolf pack with Glover because it's you. It's not me and Connor. And Connor obviously is against us.

But you and me can have a wolf pack. We can have our own wolf. pack, Mike? Yes, there you go. The Shiloh pack right there. Him just bark. The Shiloh pack. The Shai Pact.

The Tilosantos UFC debut concerns me a lot in this fight. I know it was long ago. I know it was Mara Borella. I know she has won all her fights since then. It concerns you that the greatest female fighter of all time is about to take on a woman who lost to Mara Borello. I agree. It should concern you for Tilos Santos.

It just tells me that when the moment gets a little too big, She is just not ready for it. Now, we've seen very strange things happen in M.A. I just don't see Valencia. I think if Valentina slipped on a banana peel, she would slip into some sort of spinning kick and knock Tyler Santos out. So I don't see any slipping on a banana peel here unless it leads to a violent finish. I have to kind of look at the props a little closely,

but I think this is one-way traffic. It's just another showcase fight for Valentina Shvchenko. I think Tyler is just the next woman up right now. I mean, it's just what it is to me. She's the next woman that's going to get defeated. There is one prop that I, I mean, I kind of like the, the Valentina finish props here because they're all like decent value. Like, I don't think she's going to finish in the first round,

although the experts seem to think she's going to get this done quickly, plus 380 if we're talking about finishes. But I just see a Valentina perfect game coming here. I think just two hard rounds in the third round when Tyler just gets up in the stool and she realizes what is standing in front of her, Valentina Shofchenko is going to put her out. And it's going to be ugly. Third round TKO, just one of those stoppage who are just like, whoever the referee is, thank you. Thank you for saving this woman.

Thank you for letting her live to fight another day. And still, Valencia gets on the microphone and just cuts a fiery promo on Giuliana Pena, on Amanda Nunes and just says, hey, you're not fighting for the Bannamway title. You're fighting for the chance to fight the greatest women's fighter of all time and you're going to lose. And then she takes the microphone away from Daniel Cormier

and drops it in the octagon and then marches, dances her happy ass back up the aisle. Dances her, yeah. Third round TKO, I think this is one-way traffic. I think the first two rounds she probably could put Tile away. She's just not going to. and then she's just going to mercifully put her away in the third within inside of 12 minutes this fight's over.

Third round TKO for the Chevy truck is plus 1,400. And I don't hate that at all. So I have so much action on this fight in particular. Is this your Rose Dobby-Utis, Carlos Sparza S kind of? Or is more on this one than that one. This is, oh, this is so much. This is, I'm going to, we're going to talk about the big bet at the very end of this segment because I'm going to do something I literally have never done before because it's bad,

but it's not bad, and I'll explain. But I, for funsies, I obviously have taken an action on Shibchenko by KOTKL plus 200. Everything you said, look, Tla Santos in many ways is just a, what's the word I'm looking for? I want to make sure I choose this carefully. A dollar store version of Valentina Shibchenko. She is a pretty good boy Thai artist who takes people down. down like a lot randomly and is okay on the floor.

She's pretty physically gifted, especially in comparison to the rest of the division, but she is just nowhere near what's going to come for her on Saturday. And so this fight to me, I think the most likely outcome is that Chivchenko actually just does the same thing she's been doing pretty recently, where she gets a body lock, just muscles Santos down, and then just elbows are face off because who can stop it? No one can stop that. No one's been able to stop that. It's just what she does.

And so I think that that's probably going to happen here. So I'm taking a regular bet on Shevchenko by KOT, K.O. That props at plus 200. I also have Shevchenko straight tied into the aforementioned parlay with Tashka, does not go the distance. Shevchenko right now, straight, is minus 630. And that's where we're going to get to my big bet, because minus 630 is an insane number. It sounds enormous. It's really not.

It's actually low-key, not a huge number. That is an 86% win probability on a fight that Chivchenko is going to win 99 times out of 100. Sure, this is MMA and anything can happen. And so maybe Chivchenko throws a kick, snaps her leg, a la Kana McGregor. Oh, no, that would be terrible. But if they fought 99 times, I would feel comfortable in saying that Chivchenko wins. 98 of them. Like she is just such a favorite here. So for her to be at minus 630, I, I truly don't understand why that number is that low. Like, she was minus 720 against Lauren Murphy. Yes,

Lauren Murphy's not the athlete, Tyler Santos is. But like, come on, Jennifer Maya, minus 50s, what she opened at is Karmouche minus 600. Like, I can only assume it's the gaudy record that Santos has, you know, 18 and 1, 191, whatever it is with, with that one loss that we talked about. It makes no sense to me. I joked on last week's episode that actually I was just going to, I wouldn't have any straight bets this week. They would all be parlayed with Valentina Shvchenko just for that little bit extra juice. And I don't think that's wrong, frankly.

It's not. Still think I could totally do that and be fine. But I decided the better way to do it is I'm going to break my rules. I'm going to do a thing I never do. I'm going all in. You do it at a poker table. When you've got the nuts, you pre-flop and you've got bullets, and you just shove.

And I'm going all in. So I have the bets I'm making today. And every other cent in my gambling bank roll that is not tied to the bets I am making, it's all going on Chevy truck straight at minus 630. Yes, it's a big number, but it's going to pay out. This is, I'm risking it all for the biscuit, but that risk is so low. And yeah, the payoff's not huge. But if you put minus 630, I agree, that's a big number.

you can still make a good return if you're putting in all of your money on that. So I'm not suggesting anyone follow suit here. This is obviously exactly the sort of thing they tell you not to do in any gambling venue. But I'm just saying, think about it like this. If you put 10K on Valentina Shibchenko to current odds, you'd make 1,500 plus bucks. That's not, I mean, if I walk down the street and I see a $20 bill, I'm going to pick up that $20 bill. And it's the same sort of thing. So that's what I'm doing.

I know that that is a crazy maneuver, but I am shoving every cent I have that isn't tied up in other bets this weekend on Valentina Shepchenko. I'll be sweating the co-main event, but I won't be sweating because she delivers every single time. She is not going to have an Amanda Nunes, you know, fall from grace. That's just not who she is. So all gas, let's go, baby. I love it. I love it so much.

I love it too when it wins. If something happens, if this is the one in 100 that it doesn't work out, I'm going to be a sad, sad panda. But I can rest easy knowing that my compatriot, Connor Birx, he's along with me. He has Valentina Shavchenko in a parlay. That parlay is with Yuri Glover does not go the distance.

So he and I actually have a very similar parlay set. And the third leg, we're going to talk about right now because it's arguably the best of it. best fight in this whole card, Mike. Like, I mean, you know, the other fights are great fights. I'm not here to talk anything bad about title fights. But the greatest women's fight of all time is happening in the, I don't remember even what we call this, the feature bout of the main card, a women's strawweight battle

between Wiley Zhang and Yuanianjajik, two former champions of the division in 2020. Am I right in that year? It was 2020. They had the fight of the year in like January of 20. 20. Honestly, the greatest female fight I've ever seen. One of the five best fights probably of all time. And they're running it back. It's three rounds this time, which I think is a huge difference maker, especially in what's going on here. But what are your impressions here? How are you feeling about this fight, Mike? So right now, looking at the betting lines,

Zhang Wei is a minus 155 favorite and Yowana is plus 135. So my initial thought is there's a lot of value on Yohanna at plus 135. This should be this should be line closer. This should be at worst, Yana plus 120. At worst, it should be plus 120. So I think we're seeing some value on Yanna.

And here's the thing. I thought Yonna won the first fight. I thought you won the first fight. It wasn't clear. It was a very close, competitive, absolute battle, but I thought Yohanna won. Since then, Yowana has had time to get her mind right

to take a much deserved breather from the sports. She got away from it for a while. And Zhang Wei Lee went on to get knocked out viciously by Rose Nama Yunus, and then went to MSG, changed everything about her life, her game, went to fight ready, changed everything

about herself, and still lost. There's a lot on the line here for Zhang Wei Li. I very confident Yohanna could win this fight. And I'm not a better, but let's just say I had let's just say I had some units to play around with.

Normally I would try to find like a sneaky prop somewhere. I'm sure the fight goes to distance prop is going to be mighty juicy. I'm not sure what the number is. But if I'm making a confident wager here on someone at Plus Money, Yawani and Jacek, I'm pretty darn confident in taking that fight. I just, I felt like Yowana was the better fight of the first time around. I feel like Zhang has suffered a couple really tough losses since then. and I know she fought Rose very competitively the second time,

but Rose did not fight great that night. She really didn't. And John caught her on a rough night and still lost on the judge's scorecard. So give me, Yuana, to win a decision here, I feel pretty confident about that. And if I'm placing money and I see a plus 135 line or higher, I'm jumping all over that because I think it should be closer. I think there's value on Yonah plus 135.

And that's a line I would take. Or Yonah by decision is plus $2,000. as it currently stands. There you go. I would probably go that route instead. And this is, honestly, this is, I think, the most difficult fight

of the evening for me to call because everything you're saying is true, but also I don't, everything that you're saying is also not true in that, in that it's all correct,

but that the other side of it is also very concerning. Like, yes, Yuan has had some time to recover. Counterpoint. She also hasn't fistfall anybody in two plus years, two years and several months. That is a very concerning thing when you're coming back to fight somebody like Wiley

Zhang. Yes, I thought Yawanna won the first fight. I rewatched it. I rewatched it a couple times since then. I rewatched it this morning before we did this just to kind of get another look at it. I don't think, I think that it was fine if you scored it for Yawanna. I think probably Wiley Zhang should win, quote, unquote, based on the fact that Yoanna's face was disfigured for the rest of like the next three months or whatever.

But that fight, there were two clear rounds, one for each of them, and then three rounds that you could have scored any way you wanted it. And I would not have a problem with it. They were evenly matched. But I, in that fight, I for sure scored a, you know, in a three round fight, I would have given the wind of Yawanna. But the big issue here is that wasn't a three-round fight. It was a five-round fight. And Wiley-Jang fought like it was a five-round fight. And the things that she is good at, the skills, the stuff that she has, the attribute she has,

she is much, I won't say physically stronger than Yuanah, because actually in the clenches, I thought Yohanna did better than Wiley did in the clenches. But she's a much more powerful striker than Yonah. I think she's faster than Yonah, and that's kind of what we saw in that first fight, where Yonah was a little more technical, but she would get dragged into extended combinations and just the speed and power and the ability for Wiley Zhang to hurt her without really getting hurt equally as bad. badly in return, leveled the playing, leveled the striking field enough. And that was over five rounds of three rounds.

I think Wiley Zhang has a much greater opportunity to just kind of empty the tank out and say, all right, keep pace. I'm the better physical fighter. Keep pace with me. And I don't know if you want to do it, especially coming off a two-year layoff. I just don't know what she's going to look like. And similarly, I have no idea what Wiley Zhang's going to look like after, you know, two losses in a row pretty detrimental.

to her long-term career, frankly. She lost the belt in brutal fashion, and then she comes back. Like you said, she changed everything, tried to be focused and ready, caught Rose on a bad night, though not her worst night, as Carlos Sparza has proven does. Not Rose's worst night, but caught her on not a great night and still couldn't quite get the job done. And so I don't know what she's going to come into this fight. There are so many questions for me here that you can convince me of any bet. You can't convince me of a Wiley Zhang straight bet because at minus 155, that number is obviously insane. You can convince me of a yuan at underdog value at plus 135.

I think that's a totally reasonable bet. But I think for me, I only have one piece of action here at the moment, though I'm still vacillating between whether I want to take a side. And it's just I have the fight goes to decision prop. That's at minus 225. I've got that parlayed with the aforementioned one to share Parashka doesn't go to the distance minus 500 and Chivchenko at minus 630. It pays out basically even money at plus 101. So I've got those three parlayed together. And my advice to any better is this.

You know, if you're still taking my advice after I just said I was going all in on a fighter, which is an awful idea to do. But if you're taking advice, I don't, neither of these women's getting a finish. I just don't see that happening here. And the by decision props are much more juiced. So like we talked about, you know, J-Chic by decisions plus 200. I think there's value there. And frankly, if you're inclined to be widely Zhang better,

Zhang by-decision is plus 140. That's a pretty big gap from minus 155 because Yonah isn't someone who gets finished historically. And they've fought before. It just seems really unlikely that either woman gets a stoppage here. So if you want to have a side, I would strongly encourage you to have a by decision prop. Then again, that's what I said last week. And then Carolyn Nicole Kavich decided she was going to suddenly submit Flee's Herig.

So it's why gambling is stupid and people shouldn't do it. But it sure makes the damn thing fun. Agreed. And I just, I mean, I'm with you. I don't like the betting line. I think it's off. Now, if by Saturday, you're like, oh, I'm going to take a bet on this fight. And then you look and Siouana plus 115.

probably not worth the juice in my eyes, but plus 135 right now, and it might even go up. If you could catch it at plus 135, plus 140, or even higher, it's worth a look. It's worth a look.

But if we get below, even plus 120, I think we're okay. But if we get below plus 120, I think we've gone a little too far the other way. Yeah, I would, I for sure wouldn't take it at that.

At plus 135, plus 140, you're talking basically a 40% win probability, which I think there's, I think this is close to a coin flip. So I screw it, Mike. I'm just going to do it. I'm just going to pull the trigger on it.

I'm going to put for two very specific reasons. One, I think you're right. I think there's enough value here. I'm going to go place a bet on Yuanian J.cic to win this fight straight at underdog value. I'm not going to take the by decision prop just because I'm already getting underdog value. I'll be fine without the buy decision. And mostly because if I take that bet, you know what happens? We have a wolf pack wager because Connor Berks is also taking Ewanian J. Chick to win this fight.

Underdog odds. He got it plus 150. Oh, oh. What do we call? Is this the tripod bet since all three of us are on Yanna? I'm not sure we call the tripod. We got to figure this out, though. We'll find something.

But our pack is won stronger, and we have three bets on Yonani and J.chick to win this fight. So probably not going to win now. but that's okay. Wolfpack wagers are, I think, one and two at this point. So tough hang for us so far. But now I'm evening it out. I'm teetering us in a different direction. We have room to grow.

So that is exciting. And Connor also, like I said, Connor and I are parlay, which we came to entirely independent of each other, pretty close because Connor, I have the fight goes to decision at minus 225. Connor has a fight goes over one and a half rounds. I don't know what he got those numbers at, but his total parlay comes out to a minus 128 payout. So we have the same three bets functionally, just slightly different, slightly different odds for our parlay.

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the fall bakeoff to perfect Penelope Johnson? Okay, a bit TMI, but we're here for it. So download the app today and get zero delivery fees on your first three orders. Instacard, groceries that over deliver. Service fees exclusions and terms apply. And now we come to the interesting part, because now I have a couple of other fights I sort of specifically want to talk about because I have some action down on them. And I guess we can go with main card fights, but we're going to play a little faster and

looser here because I don't have a ton to say on some of these fights, but I do just kind of want to talk about it. We don't need to spend eight hours here, you know, Mike. So the other main card fights, Ruggiero Bontor and taking on Monell Cape, cap. Is it cape or cap? It's a cap. It's cape in my heart, but I guess it's cop. A cop.

In a flyweight fight, I strongly, strongly, strongly suggest you not do what I've done, which is I talked myself into Rizzeria. a bonterin. I did it. I did it. I thought looking at this fight, I was like, that is, Minot Cop is going to win this fight. It's going to be very easy. It's not even going to be a struggle for him. Straight, simple. He's a better striker. La, blah, blah, blah. And then I watch tape. And then I can't, I can't shake the fact that I think Minow Cop might be one of those guys who is really fun and people really like, but he's just not actually like, he's not elite. He's great,

and he's good, and he's a great fun fighter. but he is not a guy who's going to make that leap even though he has a lot of the tools. The things that sold me here is one, cop is a minus 220 favorite. That is a comfortable favorite and I don't feel comfortable with that line at all. I got Bonterin at plus 180.

And the big thing against Bonner is he's 0 and 3 with one no contest in his last four and that one no contest was a win but it got overturned because he popped for a banned substance. Now he did get that written off. as a tainted supplement. Got, I think, a three-month reduced suspension there.

But he also missed way for that fight. So there was a lot going on in the one fight he hasn't lost in the last couple of years. But I just, I can't shake that I don't think cop is, fights the smartest fight all the time. And Bonterin is not like the best striker in the world,

but he's not terrible, and he's really good at getting clinches and securing takedowns. and a theme of the bets I have this weekend are striker versus grappler matchups. I'm taking a lot of grapplers this weekend because a lot of grapplers are underdog odds this week. And so I think this fight to me looks a lot like Bontor and Kikara-France, which if you know fighting, you might be like, well, Bontra got knocked out in the first round. So why are you taking Bontor in this fighting?

It's been okay. But that's what you think this fight is like, because I think Kikara-France is better than L Cape and I think Bonturn, Bontrne was hustling KKF for that first round. Like he took the back, he had it for most of the round. He got up. He also ate some big shots from KKK France before he got knocked out. And his problem was he ate them and then sort of looked like he got a little overconfident. Like, okay, I took a big shot.

That's fine. I don't really need to concern myself. I just need to kind of put my head down and move forward. And then he didn't see one coming and it killed him. So I think he's going to have learned from that. He's not going to be nearly as bad with his decision-making that regard. And I just like his ability to get some takedowns. And you said it for the main event.

I'm saying it here. I think if Bon-Turin gets one, two takedowns, he's won this fight. So I'm back in the underdog again at plus 180. Tell me why I'm crazy. I mean, you make a pretty compelling argument. I mean, I get it. If we're taking straight money bets, it's dog or pass, especially at minus 220 for Manel, because he is very.

exciting guy. We have most people, especially hardcore fans have very high hopes for Minel Cap. They thought he could come in ways in before his first UFC fight as a championship alternate. We saw big things for him. And then the bell rang for his first

two fights and we were like, who the hell is this guy? This is not the guy that was running through Risen to win Bannamweight Gold and just absolutely starching people mostly in the second round. Last couple of fights, you've kind of just seen it. He's just Like, eff it. This is the UFC.

I can't, I have no more time to get my feet wet in this promotion. I have to win a fight. And he goes out and has two vicious knockouts. Now, he's been a, and he's always been a consummate slow starter. It's, it's always been that way. First round, end of the first round is where he starts to get cooking. Second round is where he gets real cooking. And he's finishing guys quick in the first round, which is uncharacteristic for him.

Normally it takes him around to get going. Not quite like Piotr-Yon, but some Jan, some Janisms where he uses that first round to kind of get some information, and then he takes that information in the second round for violent finishes. Now he's just like, let's go. I see an opening. I'm just going to go for the kill. I don't like Cape or Cop at minus 220.

I think that's way too far of a line. I think this fight is closer. But, and I know we haven't really seen a prop there, but the one prop I do see that does have value free going Menel Cop is cop inside the distance at plus 120. Why do minus 220? Because Cop's not winning a decision. If he's winning, he's knocking Hazirio Boncerin into the next week.

He's going to knock him out and it's going to be violent and it's going to be vicious. So if you're going to take cap, go plus money, find it wherever you can. But if you just want to play it a little bit safer, I think cop inside the distance if you go on that route, a plus 120 is a way nicer spot than minus 220. Less sweat. And if cop's going to win, that's probably how he's going to do. He's going to finish him. So, yeah, I like that line a lot better.

but I'm not against you at all. Bontorine is an interesting dog pick. I just feel like cop, especially fighting in Singapore. It's a big thing for him, being back in that area that people know him. They're not going to be loud and boisterous through the entire fight, but they're going to be on his side. There's going to be a little buzz behind him this week, more so than Hager-Bonterran.

And I think this is a nice little, it's an important fight for him, but it's also kind of a nostalgic fight for him being back into that region of the country to compete. Yeah, the region is an interesting thing. I didn't really consider, but I agree with you. If you're gonna, if you feel like Minow Kopp is the guy, get him inside the distance, get him it by TKO, KO, because the man has one decision win in his entire career. That's, that's just not the way he wins fights. So he's a bit Yeree-Praheshka-esque in that regard.

So, you know, he, I think if you want to do that, that's where you go. But I, I just couldn't help it. I just watched the fights. And it's not like Cop even look like, yeah. Yes, great highlight, real knockouts. But, like, Ode Osborne had him uncomfortable in spots. Zalgis Zuma Golov, which I probably screwed that up, so my bad hand up, also was really putting the action forward on him, made Kopp uncomfortable a point in that fight.

It is, I mean, yes, he also knocked both them out at the end of the first round, but still, it's just he hasn't shown everything that I wanted to see when he came over. And so maybe it's that. maybe I'm just reacting to him not living up to my pre-UFC expectations and saying, you get plus 180 on a dude who's going to take him down and take the back, that feels like value. So I won't bontor in. My colleague, Connor Berks, does not have any action on this fight, which I'm a little bit surprised about, honestly.

I would have loved to have to have him explained to me because I would have thought for sure he was on Starboy by COO. that feels or the under like he loves over unders that feels like somewhere he'd want to be but you know i guess that's where at last main card fight jack delamadalena versus ramazon myev ameve which one is it mike you know these better than i do i think it's amive but it could be wrong ramazon amive jack telomadelana man how the mighty have fallen Ramazan Amive was a hot shot prospect and he is coming in as an underdog for the first time in his career.

He has never been an underdog before. He is to Jack Della Madelana, a man with one UFC fight to his name, but a lot of hype, a lot of potential. Opening of this, or current odds have this fight at Madelaine at minus 150 with Amir at plus 130. Where do you stand on this bout, Mike?

I stand... It's a close fight. Jack Della Madelana is a really good prospect, and I actually salute to the matchmakers. I think this is the perfect piece of matchmaking right here. How good is this kid? If you could beat Ramazan Ami, then you're pretty solid. I think Madelanah's got a lot of skill.

He's still a little green, but he's also a big student of the game. And I think the best thing he could do is go back, watch the fight between Amive and Ami and, Anthony Rocco Martin. And that's your game plan. Just kick that man in the legs 500,000 times. And you're probably going to win the fight. One of the why?

Because Ramazan Amiv doesn't stop or check any leg kicks at all. He's not interested. Never checks a leg kick. He's not interested in it. Yeah, he's going to keep going forward, hope for a takedown. So if Madalina could stay on his feet and just land leg kicks and just keep him away, mess of the body, maybe you could throw something up top. Maybe those leg kicks will keep scoring.

you could do some fakes, some shimmies, go up top a little bit. Maybe you can get a finish, but I think Madalian's got a lot of ways to win this fight. I'm not going to call him a me of a one-trick pony, but if he doesn't get fights to the ground, he normally doesn't do very well. And when the going gets tough, he has a tough time winning those decisions. Danny Roberts, that last fight, perfect example. Close fight, but Danny got to work a little bit more, and that's why he won. Ramadan's not a guy that's just going to go out there and throw 50, 60 strikes,

and around. He's going to sit there and he's going to, like, if you were to read a book about MMA and like how one would fight, that's how Ramazzan Ami fights. Oh, on page 46, I'm supposed to throw a right hand. Page 48, I'm supposed to shoot and fade in a takedown. Like, that's how he fights. He's a very textbook fighter. I think Jack Delam Adelaena is the complete opposite of that. I think he's willing to take risks. He's willing to take chances. And he's willing to take the risks to get the result he wants, which Ramazon Amive is not that. guy. So give me the athletic Jack Della Madelana to win a

decision here. I don't think he's going to get a finish, but I think this is going to be a fight where first round might be a little interesting for Jack. I think he's going to get cooking the end of the first round. Second round, he's going to start to score, and then the third round he's going to turn it on. And I can see him winning a 29,

28 decision here. Now, as far as the betting line goes, it's not bad. What is it? It's minus 150? It's not horrible. I actually expected this line to be higher if we're being honest because of the hype and this is i actually did a little bit i thought it would be sniffed minus 170 something in that range it wouldn't a surprise it's just because of the the way the betting community sometimes works they just they just look at what it'd be done to me lately

he's the new shiny toy so i might wait to see if a couple more bucks come in on am eve if we're going to do a straight pick but whatever the whatever the fight goes the distance prop is I'm kind of liking that right now. Fight goes to decision. The distance is a good prop. I didn't even look at that prop. So minus 175. Minus 175.

Madelana by decision is. Madelada wins by decision is plus 180. Plus. So yeah. And Meves not a guy that gets finished very often. I don't think he's ever been finished. I don't think he's been finished in the UFC. I am extremely confident that he has not been finished in the UFC.

And I am correct on that. He has been knocked out and submitted once in his career. back in the old M1 days, but, well, the submission was his second ever fight. That was in 2009. So I don't anticipate that being a thing, especially not with, if we're being honest, the Jadium's game is not submission heavy. Yeah, he's, he's a violent striker. But I mean, it's really tough too.

Like, he's durable. He doesn't check leg kicks, but he keeps fighting. He doesn't go down. He doesn't stop. He doesn't weather. He doesn't quit. So I think the durability keeps him in for 15 minutes. But I think when the fight's over, it's a clear jack.

Della Madelana win. Well, you're in good company because our, our good friend, Connor Berks, he has a straight bet on Jack Della Madelena. He has, he gave it to me a plus money, and I am questionable that this fight was ever plus money in that regard, but I assume it appears that JDM opened as an underdog, so. Wow. Good for him. I'm a little surprised that he opened as an underdog.

I would have thought this opened as a pick-em, but... Wow, he opened a plus 130, you're right. Yeah, so he has got money on JDM at plus 120. Obviously, that's not a line you're getting at all. So not entirely useful for our listeners. But for me, I agree with just about everything you said. When I initially looked at this, I was thinking, maybe there's some value on Amive here because you can get the takedowns.

And I love an underdog grappler because two takedowns is all you need in a three-round fight, baby. That's all you need. but he's not a very good takedown artist which is the problem he's a combat sambo champion but it's just he doesn't get a lot of them like he shoots a lot of takedowns that are bad

or don't get finished and he's really wild on the feet at points so I could see this fight going either way for me I honestly think after I watch tape that the odds here are pretty close to spot on if you are feeling a Madelena by decision prop at plus 180 whatever that number was

I think that's okay but this is one of those situations I'm going to pass just because I don't like putting money on guys I don't feel like I have a great read on and whereas as JDM seems like a good prospect we haven't seen him fight that much you know he's he has had a couple of rematches in his pro career before he joined the UFC

which are tough to really get a feel for how much he's growing etc and then he got in the you know he did contender series where he looked sensational and obviously his debut he looked very good as well but I want to see a little more before I start investing because every dollar that I put into him

is a dollar that doesn't go to Valentina Shvchenko and that's not what I'm about Mike I'm about the bullet train and riding that to minus 630 glory so that is the main card that is the big fights maybe not all the big fights

but that is the top five we're getting this weekend. And now it's going to be on to what do we feel like talking about? Because honestly, I don't have a lot of other bets. I have one other bet on the remaining fights in this card. And there's another fight that I'm circling for a bet. But are there any fights in the prelims of the early prelims, Mike, that you think jump out at you and you say, I want to talk about this. I want to talk about, you know, kind of where the odds makers maybe have something wrong or something I'm seeing. Is anything jumping out at you like that? there is one fight that's jumping out of me,

and it has since it was booked. Jake Matthews is a dog money. Scratches me right where I hit here, Dredmishu. It just does. I feel like the Andre Fialo train is a fun one. It's an exciting one, and we like a guy that likes to fight every month. But Jake is just being completely overlooked here.

And Jake is a much more complete fighter than Andre Fialo is. Now, is there a world where Andre Fiala will come out and just put the bricks on Jake Matthews and get him out of there a minute and a half. Yeah, there's a possibility of that happening, but Jake's a pretty smart fighter, and when he loses, he loses to guys that are just better than him.

And I don't think Andre Fiala was better than him. I don't. I felt like Sean Brady was better than him. I felt like... Sean Brady's tremendous. He's a really good fighter. But I feel like Jake's got a really good chance to win this fight.

And him, plus money, just screams value. And something tells you that the longer this week goes and the more people hear from Andre Fialo and Dana White gives them the rub. I think that that line is probably going to get more pushed in Andre's favor. So I actually think this, I mean, you want to get it at plus 115. If you want to bet this straight, go right ahead. I think there's some value there. But there's a chance that that plus money line goes up a little higher for Jake.

But I feel like Jake at plus money, it's really hard to ignore that, honestly. I love that you say this because I'm in. full agreement with you. This was one that immediately when I was looking at the car jumped out at me and then when I went back and watched film, I was like, okay, this feels like at worst, it's a coin flip fight like this. I mean, at worst, if not, it's a slight Jake Matthews should be a favorite here. It's for all the reasons you said. Jake Matthews is a much more complete fighter. And this is just a dude who he's had some setbacks in the UFC. I mean, obviously, but he's a really good fighter. He's only lost to

good dudes. Like, Anthony Rocco Martin is not in the UFC anymore, but he's a damn good fighter. Like Rocco Martin, he lost to Demi and Maya and... Who else do you lose to? Neil Magny in a close fight. Yeah, Neil Magny, two top ten dudes and then that

was his exit from the UFC. Like, great, Sean Brady, I have him incredibly highly ranked in my welter rankings because I think that dude is the truth in the future. So, like, there's nothing wrong with losing to Sean Brady. He's got good wins.

Li Zhang Ling. That's a great win. Diego Sanchez, obviously, that doesn't tick on my fancy anyway, but Emil Weber Mech is a good win. Like, yeah,

he did lose to Kevin Lee. That was also eight years ago or some absurd number back on whenever, 2015, something like that. So it's, I think he's,

he's just one of those dudes who he doesn't jump off the page, right? He is a, he's a lunch pail kind of guy. He wins a lot of decisions well-rounded, but nothing super exciting, doesn't have, doesn't have a lot of finishes or frankly a lot of bonuses in the UFC, despite having been in the company for almost a decade.

He's just a dude. He's a good top-20-ish kind of guy. And I have no idea if Andre Fialho is a top-20, top-20 talent. I wouldn't shock me if he was, but at the same time, like, he has some losses that are not great on his record. but he has come in and he looks so great with those two performances and the night bonuses in the last two fights and then a really fun fight against Michelle Pahia like that's that's a really strong start to your UFC career

and so I get the hype but this feels exactly like that where this is a oh here's the hype but this is some of this is unjustified we've got the quiet unassuming dude and we've got the guy that everyone is talking about so for me I am with you I've got Jake Matthews I got him at plus 120th and underdog I'm also really shocked, but Connor doesn't have a bag here. I would have thought for sure we would be another, another underdog together Wolfpack wager. But that's not the case. So it's just you and me, Mike.

It's a Shiloh wager. It's a Shiloh wager. I'm excited about it. I have one more fight I want to talk about, and then we'll go talk about anything else that you want on the card. But this is the fight that I want to put a bet down on. because I think that I'm right. But part of me thinks that maybe I'm stupid. And so I need you to tell me if I'm being stupid Jed or if I'm being genius Jed,

because I can't tell the difference. It's a fine line to walk. And it's the early prelim main event, the abandon weight fight between Kang Kyeong-ho and Dana Batgero. Dana Bakery, and I do you're going to say that and I can't wait to hear you have to say. I'm not good at this. I'm not good at names. I never have been.

So this is the other fight that jumped down on the page of me because, one, there's so much tape on both of these guys. Low key, they have been fighting the UFC forever, which if you had told me coming into this fight, that Kong Kong Kong Ho had been in the UFC for like since 2013. That is 2013 is how long he's been in the organization. I would have told you that I don't believe you. That's just not true. but he has. And actually, if you go watch the tape and you look at his fights, not wildly exciting most of it,

but he's a damn good fighter. Like, he's a really solid, solid fighter. Like, he's in a lot of ways the same as Jake Matthews. Like, he can do a bit of everything. He's not great on the feet, but he's got a sharp enough jab. He's not, like, lost up there. And he has, but he does have one really good skill. He is great at taking the back.

Like, he excels at that. He's got a number of choke finishes as a result of that. he's a fine wrestler not a great one but he's got decent reactive takedowns and trips from clinches like he can do a lot of stuff and dena backgaree is also been in the UFC for 2019 but he's got five fights or something in the organization which is honestly more than i would have thought as well but for me this fight comes down to backerrie's debut against alatang hiley another one i probably butchered where he just got taken down a bunch and that was like he had a really fun really exciting fight, but he ended up losing a decision because he gave up like four takedowns on five shot attempts or something like that. And Kang Kyeong-ho is, I think, a better positional grappler than Hiley is. He is a good enough takedown artist. He's going to be a bit physically bigger than Dena Bakri. And low-key, Backery, since that first debut fight, obviously, Bakri has gone on to have three wins, you know, three quality wins in the organization, and then a loss to Chris

Gutierrez, which I think that's a very explicable loss. Chris Gutierrez is a really good fighter, but he has not had a single takedown shot on him since his debut in the promotion. And that is not what's going to happen against Kang Kiyoha. I think that this is it. I said earlier in the show, I'm taking underdogs who are grapplers in striker versus grappling matchups. And I think that's what this is. I just don't see why Kong Kyeong-ho is a plus-130 dog. This fight feels like it. It should be a pick-em to me. So I'm going to take the value at that. And yeah,

Beckeri throws bombs and maybe he connects on one and maybe I'm sad. But also, Kong has his 1-K-0 loss in his career. He doesn't get knocked out. He usually loses a decision. So I just think he can grapple. And that's, it's another underdog. I got a lot of underdogs this week.

But that's where I want to be. So tell me if I'm stupid. You know, Jed, I'd love to get in this microphone. take the opportunity to call you stupid. But I would, first of all, I wouldn't do that anyways in this setting. Not on my show. We can do it on your show. Yeah, my show, yeah.

On BTL, absolutely. But I'm with you here. I'm actually with you on this. I think this is a great pick. And here's some, here's one other thing that a lot of people aren't factoring into this thing. Kyeong-Hokang was not supposed to fight Dena Bakri this entire time. It's supposed to fight Simon Olivero.

Here comes Dina Bacchri on short notice to step up and take this fight, which is very admirable. Good on him. Dana White's probably very happy. You mentioned the Chris Gutierrez fight. And when you talk about losses to Chris Gutierrez, you think that you probably just got leg kicked for 15 minutes, which is not fun. And you probably lost a decision. Danaga Bacaree got the doors blown off of him by Chris Gutierrez. He's going to be on the bubble.

O'Reilly highlight reel video for years to come after this knockout loss that he took. And by the way, this loss did not happen eight months ago. It happened less than three months ago. How about it in March? The end of March, which is basically like the first week of April. So we're talking like two months ago. Dinaw Bakery just got the boots put to him and then got viciously knocked out by Chris Gutierrez.

That was not a typical, we bounce back in two months to fight again kind of a knocko. That's a we're out for a while kind of a knockout. And before that knockout happened, Chris was whooping on him, bad with the leg kicks, shots of the body, he was landing up top, had him in some big trouble in the first round. I think it's too soon for him to come back. And that makes this thing a little more appealing to me. Because what this tells me is that Danabakhri is going to come out. and he's going to try to knock

Kyeong-Hokang's head into the third row. And if he doesn't, if that doesn't happen, if he gets taken down in the first minute of his fight, he's done. I think he's done. He's going to get the air sucked out of him in that first round. All of his confidence is going to wither away

into the Singapore indoor stadium, just flying into the sky, like the Undertaker after the casket match at the Royal Rumble. His spirit is going to float into the rafters and Kyeong-Hong-Kang is going to grind and gruel his way to a 30-27 unanimous decision. I feel very confident about this. I'm shocked that he's plus money, especially in a short-notice opportunity, but oftentimes we just look at knockouts.

We look at tapology. Just look at, I mean, listen, I like a nod-backerie a lot. I like the way he fights. He's an exciting guy. But we have to look at the level of competition that these two men have faced. top to bottom, Kyeongho Kong has fought much better competition. And since in the UFC,

the Al-Tang Hailey fight, which is a great example here if we're looking at this fight, who was 12-7-1, very similar kinds of records win percentage-wise. Then he knocks out Guido-Kennetti, not in the UFC.

Kevin Atividad, I don't know if he's still in the UFC, and Brandon Davis took this fight on like 72 hours notice after a hiatus from the UFC, and he went on to just knock out a bunch of regional guys and got his way, it made his way back.

These are quality wins. I mean, these are good, fun wins, and he treated the fighters the way he was supposed to treat them. Gyeongho Kang is by far, I mean, compared to the three guys he beat, Young Kong is a much tougher fight. So, yeah, I'm with you. Take the dog there.

I don't know if Connor's on here for a tripod or whatever we're going to call this thing down the line. He's not. He's not, unfortunately. though I'm less surprised by this one because this one doesn't feel like it speaks to where Conner's at as a gambler. Though you did mention some fighters and I will just throw this out for the listeners. Interestingly, these two have fought two of the same people, which is not something you see especially like you'll see it at the tops of divisions when there's a lot of people fighting the same top ten competition. But both men have fought Brandon Davis and Guido Canetti.

Both men won both of those fights. so you can't really take too much from that. Though if you're trying to really MMA method, the non-backerty did knock out Brandon Davis, although granted, as you mentioned, there were some extenuating circumstance to Brandon Davis in that fight. So, yeah, that is, that's where I'm feeling.

Which gives me now five underdog bets this week, which is a lot of underdog bets this week. But, you know, I feel good about all of them. And the great thing about underdog bets is, you if you hit them at a 50% rate, you're making money. So that's all we have to hope is that at least 50% of the underdogs are cashing out for my ticket. And even then we don't have to hope because Valentina Shichanko minus 630 and all of my money is going to bring me home to a positive weekend. Of that I am certain.

Are there any other fights to talk about because any other fights that are exciting to you, interesting to you, something that you really want to get off your chest about? because the only thing else I have, I don't have anything to say on it, it is just that Connor also has a bet on Sung Wu Choi versus Joshua Kulibau. He has Sung Wu Troy to win at minus 225. My thoughts on that fight are pretty simple of, sure, I don't think that that's a bad bet. It's just not a bet I particularly want to put my money behind.

I don't feel like I have a great read, especially on Kulibau. We've seen him a few times, but I just, I think that that bet's probably going to cash, but it's just not one I want to put my money behind. So if you, do you have any other fights here that are jumping out at you, something that you're really excited about? Maybe Malcoun Allen. I know that that's the pre-lim main event that people are stoked on, but I just, I had to step away from that fight particularly, but I don't know if there's anything else that's

interesting to you. Yeah, I mean, I get it. Brennan's a big favorite. This fight could probably be. lined a little bit closer if we're being honest. Yeah, that's why I stepped away from this fight because I was very close to betting Malkun for all the same reasons I've bet every other underdog this week. And I was like, I'm going to have, I'm going to have every underdog on the card. Yeah. I just shouldn't bet this fight. That'd be very dumb. Yeah. I mean, but Malkoon is alive at plus

220 because of the same reasons that you would bet on all these other underdogs. He's got that he is like what Colby was seven years ago. and what I mean by that is he just chain wrestles his ass off. He will just break you. He will break you just against the fence. Without even landing a takedown, he's just going to keep coming. And if Brandon gets up,

he's just going to get taken down again. Now, can Brennan be advantageous? He's got very good jujitsu for a middleweight. I mean, there's some smoke there. I get it. If you're taking a dog shot on Malcun, I don't blame you. I would, at the end of the day,

I'll probably pick Brendan Allen to squeeze out a decision just because he's the bigger fighter. And I think there's going to be moments where he can keep Malcun away. And Malcun is not a fast starter. Malcun starts slow and then he gets into the wrestling. Then he tries to grind you out. So if Brennan Allen can win the first half of the fight,

I think he'll end up taking it. The only other one that kind of stuck out to me a little bit was the Liying Na, Sylvania Gomez-Hour is if you're looking for another, like, sneaky possible underdog because Sylvania can crack We saw it in the Vanessa Demopoulos fight, but we've also seen a really big,

a really big problem in her armor, where if she doesn't get a finish with that big shot, she just folds. And Liangna is a very, very tough fighter. She had the loss of her UFC debut to Ariana Carnalosi, but that fight was freaking insane until that fight ended, until Carnalosi just hulked up and put her away. But before that, I mean, the Jacks of,

crowd. That was the first fight with a full arena in a long time. That place went bananas. Liangna was just like, let's go and let's fight. And now she's got the home crowd behind her as a dog against a fighter that she probably can beat without that. I think she's an interesting dog as well.

I think she could do very well. She's durable as hell. And if she could just, if she gets cracked and she survives it, she's got a good chance to win this fight. So that's another interesting dog that I'm surprised as a dog in this fight. Yeah. I honestly didn't, I didn't bet this fight because I just almost never bet on fights with people who,

if one or more of the fighters have one fight in a big promotion, I just, that's just not enough tape. It's the same reason I'm staying away from Jack Delo, Delamadalina, which is, I just want to see a little more. The fact that her one fight was the Ariani Conno Losey fight and, like you said, good, good fight, honestly. I just can't. But everything you're saying from a nuts and bolt standpoint makes sense, that's just not a bet. I'm going to suggest anybody just because that's not. I'd rather bet, again, I'd just rather bet on Valentina Shepchenko

because I know what I'm getting. I know what I'm getting with Valentina Shepchenko, and it's a W. Okay, that is all the bets on the card. Let us close this thing down. I will recap the bets I've got going. And I got to say, I hate that you, you almost talk me into Malcun, and I might even end up going Malcun, because then I'll have seven underdogs on a how many fights are, 12 fight cards.

I'll be betting seven underdogs and then Valentina Shrivchenko. And maybe that fits. Maybe you bet the biggest favorite on the card and then seven underdogs and your karmic justice evens out. I don't know. But I'm thinking about it. You got the wheels turning on that fight as well. But as it sits, here are our bets for the week. I've got Glover-Teshire at plus 275.

That goes directly ahead-to-head against Connor Birx, who has Jir Phrashkat minus 185. I have a prop bet on Valentina Shavchenko by KOTKO at plus 200. I have, here come the underdogs, guys. I've got Regeri Obantern at plus 180. I've got Kyeong-Hok-Kong at plus 130. I've got Yoni on J-Chic at plus 135. I've got Jake Matthews at plus 120.

All of those are underdogs. All of those are straight bets. I have a parlay for Glover to Cher, Yuri Perhushka, does not go the distance. Parlayed with Valentina Shvchenko, parlayed with Zhang, Yonair, and Jachic goes the distance. All that pays out at plus 101. And then my last bet of the evening, the bet I'm going to go make now that I've locked in all my other ones. I'm taking Valentina Shvchenko for the all-in. The lock of the century, lock of the year, lock of the millennia.

Valentin Shepchenko is going to win this fight. I don't know if it's by decision, by submission, by K.O. I just know it's a W. And so I'm taking your at minus 630, and I'm betting every cent in the bank roll that isn't tied up in these other bets, all on that. I'm going all in. It's a real, real dumb idea. But, you know, you got to have fun. You got to have fun.

I've got the aases, and I'm shoving pre-flop with them. My compatriot, Connor Burke's, a recap of his bets. He's got Sung-Wuch-Toy at minus 2.25. He's got Jack Della Madelan at plus 120. He has Yon J.J. Jake at plus 155. That's a wolf pack wager with the extra little sprinkle of juice there from Mr. Mike Heck for a three-weight wolf pack. Yeah, Yeri Perhage got minus 185. He has a prop bet on Yeri Glover under two and a half rounds at minus 170, which I don't hate as a bet, frankly.

But I think that line scares me just because I could see that fight making into the third before either man gets the job done. But then he, and he wraps it up with a parley, featuring Yuanianjajic and Wiley Zhang over one and a half rounds, Valentina Shivchenko and Yeri Glover does not go the distance. That pays out at minus 128. Those are the bets. Mike, thank you for coming on this journey with me. Thank you for stepping in when Connor Burke's abandoned us all,

abandoned the fans, abandoned me. But you would never abandon me because you're a great guy, Mike. You're a heck of a guy, in fact. And that's why we wanted to have you on. I appreciate you so much for being here. This has been No Bet's Bard. We will be back next week to tell you about all our success at UFC 275 and then talk about Calvin Cater as he boxes his way into our hearts and minds.

Thank you guys. Love you all. Good night, everybody. I'm Sophia Loper Carroll, host of the Before the Chorus podcast. We dive into the life experiences behind the music we love. Artists of all genres are welcome. And I've been joined by some pretty amazing folks, like glass animals. I guess that was the idea was to try something personal and see what happened.

And Japanese breakfast. I thought that the most surprising thing I could offer was an album about joy. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts. Oh, and remember, so much happens before the chorus.