MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Going All Out With A UFC 280 Gambling Extravaganza

Episode Date: October 19, 2022

It's the week we've all been waiting for as UFC 280 takes place this Saturday in Abu Dhabi. Featuring two title fights and numerous other marquee matchups, UFC 280 is the best event of the year and the No Bets Barred boys have you covered for all your gambling needs. For this huge events, co-hosts Conner Burks and Jed Meshew are joined by Deputy Editor for MMAFighting.com (great website), Shaheen Al-Shatti, and the boys immediately get into it discussing the main event lightweight title fight between Charles Oliveira and Islam Makhachev, the bantamweight title fight co-main event between Aljamain Sterling and T.J. Dillashaw, and every other bout on the card, including the featured main card bout between Petr Yan and Sean O'Malley. In the end, the boys end up with an absolutely ludicrous number of bets, with action on every fight on the card including Jed's continuing experiment with The Constanza Paradox, and a very special parlay. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Shaheen Al-Shatti: @shaunalshatti Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two,

Ghosts in the Machine, available now, only from Audible. ...to the Vox Media Podcast Network. It is going on, y'all. We did it. We made it. The UFC 280 fight week. We have been waiting for this.

Let's go. I mean, how long has it been? How long have we been waiting on this? thing, Jed. I mean, we're going to get into it later, but I've been waiting for well over a year for a particular coronation that we are going to have. So I've been waiting a long time. Big, big week. No explanation needed. I am joined, as always, by Jed. You just heard his voice, but we are proud to be joined by a very special guest this time around. He is the deputy editor of MMA fighting. Deputy Editor, Jed, I don't know if you've ever heard that, but if you got

deputy in your job title, I feel like you are doing something correctly. I mean, you're, you're underselling him because he has a different title. It's actually the greatest writer in the world. The greatest writer in the world. And there's proof to back that up because he is world MMA Award nominated Best Journalists of the Year. I don't know if you, if you know that space in movies, your Oscar nominated, TV Emmy nominated, Music, Grammy nominated, Broadway Tony nominated in the world of MMA journalism, your World MMA Awards. The Fighters Only World MMA Awards nominated Best Journalists of the Year,

and that's exactly who it is. It's Shaheen Al Shadi. What is going on, my man. My guys, what an intro. What's up, fellas? It's the best of the business. I am tremendously excited to be here. That intro got me thinking,

how can we win a Tony at M.A. fighting? Maybe we can put together a little musical number, or something to wet the appetites? I don't know. We need to throw it out there. I've pitched you plenty of Tony material. Let's just be real.

That is objectively false. And if you ever had, I would have said yes immediately. Well, I didn't pitch it as a play. I did pitch it as an elongated story, but we could rework it into Tony material. I don't want to give it away on broadcast because somebody else will write it before I, before I get around to it. If we're going to get Tony,

we're going to have to get Mike Heck involved. Oh, that's a given. Absolutely. Master of ceremonies. Master of the music. No, you fellas, I am so excited to be here. A huge friend of the show, obviously, big supporter of the show. Y'all make me some money constantly. And so let's make the people some money. I'm so stoked for this. This is like the best card of the year. It's tough to argue that it is, and we are stoked to have you. A quick little recap last week, Grasso Orogeo. How are we feeling after that? Jet, our man, Raphael is Sonsai. You talked me into it. Pride of Alpharetta 3004. Let's stand up.

Easy 3027 over Victor Henry. Feeling pretty good. Flyweight unders? Yeah, dude, they just don't miss. I don't know if you know this. There's still a thing. Still out there. Even when they're not flyweight.

Even when one guy misses weight still happens. Still the lock of the century. We got another one this weekend. So I'm feeling great. I had a great weekend. We're going to breeze right past the main event where I foolishly tried to carry on your legacy of the women's flyweight unders and that failed spectacularly.

It was one of the rare underbeds where I immediately knew it was gone. I was like, oh, wow, this fight is not getting finished. So you were like hyping that up to me. You were like, there's no way this gets finished while I'm sweating out a Grasso by decision bet. So, you know, I was playing the reverse janks. I was like, you never know. In the back of my head, I was like, this thing is not getting finished.

It just kills me because when I did the research, like, all right, grassow by decision. that's where we're going to go. And then I was like, oh, wait, I can't do that because of the thing. I have to do the thing. And then you didn't even do the thing with me. So it was out on an island. It didn't work out for me. But basically, whatever other bet did.

So it was fine. That is fine. It was a good week for both of us, both winning weeks. Hopefully the nice little appetizer takes us into this beautiful main course we have planned with UFC 280. Oh, yeah. Can I quickly? I mean, just very quickly. The flyweight under's thing has been the most money.

I have ever seen in my entire career of doing this. It's unbelievable. Almost to the point where, like, I feel like you guys need to almost, like, stop pushing it so hard because you are actively going to start moving these lines up. Like, that is the power of no best part. I genuinely think we already do. They canceled one last week. They canceled one of the flyweight fights last week because they got so nervous.

They see the number that we got it at. The UFC was like, we're going to have to call this off. Vegas can't take the hit of two fly white unders. Y'all is menace. Roy Val was. getting that done. Like we know Royvout was getting that done for us. Whether he won or he lost, he was going to make that chaotic enough. He was going to do it in under 12 minutes. That's for damn sure. You know, you're really on to something, Shane, because they gave us a one and a half with

Mohamed McAyev. We'll get into it a little bit later. This is what I'm saying. You fellows are doing this. We're changing the world. They are. You know, and I will just to wrap up our discussion. Yes, please. We have a new theory that I'm very excited about. It was put into play last week. And let me just say, buddy, another electric bet. The Costanza rule is absolutely in play. Like just if every, if you didn't listen last week, the Costanza rule basically breaks down to do the dumbest thing possible. If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite must be right. And it absolutely worked with Totorova Chores right. I bet the over one and a half, a healthy plus 190, smash. it and almost immediately after it hit the over the fight ended.

It was beautiful for you. I was sweating out the under one and a half. I was waiting on a subway, waiting on a ride home. And yeah, I was standing there, you know, sweating it out. And then of course, because I also needed not to go to a decision so I wasn't too upset about it. But yeah, I was like, wow. The whole time I was like, this Kostanza effect is really going to work out for him. I can't believe this.

It really worked out. We have a big problem because there's only one fight that I think. think the Costanza role plays into for this fight card. And I really, really don't want to bet Costanza behind it. I really want to bet with my, with my logical brain. And I think on principle of the matter, I can't. But man, we'll get into that later. Well, that was a beautiful segue. What a tease. We don't have to spend too long on Grasso-Rugio, though. It was a phenomenal card. We've made it through the four weeks. It felt sort of barren. We had the week off. Then we had Dernion. we had the week off, then we had Grasso Orooggio.

Tough sledding, you know, I'm not going to get two in the weeds getting mean here, but we made it to 280. We made it to the light at the end of the tunnel. And here we are. I cannot wait for this one afternoon card for us in the States. We start with breakfast 10 a.m. That's when the card starts. It's going to be beautiful.

So let's kick it off. Let's start off. The main event, the vacant lightweight championship. It's going to be five rounds if it lasts that long. Charles Olavera going up against Islam Makashev. Right now, you can get Islam for Makhine. minus 190, Olivera coming back at plus 160 over under, set at two and a half under going for minus 160 right now over for plus 130. Before I let you guys go on this, I do have to say Jed is aware

of this. I have a future bet on Islam Makashv to be lightweight champion. It's great bet. On December 31st, 22, a plus 240. I have that. And then they posted a future line for Charles Islam, and Charles was at plus 340. Didn't put nearly as much on that, just a little half unit hedge opportunity. So cheering for Charles, that is where the smart financial thing to do is for me to cheer for Islam. Sorry, I just said Charles. Chearing for Islam, that is the side that I'm on. I know Jed will be happy to hear that. But yeah, now that that's out of the way, I don't know what's going to happen in this fight. Any scenario would make sense to me. Charles K.O., Charles Sub, Islam, K.O., Islam, decision. Really, the only thing that I don't, that I would be shocked if it

happen would be a Charles Olivera win by decision. I would be very shocked if that happened. I would be, yes. Because Islamakov is going to beat the shit out of Charles Oliva and that's why I'd be very shocked. It's going to happen. Look, I, like, sometimes you just got to have a corner and you got to stay on it until you die.

And this is my corner. I've been saying this for over a year. We were talking about it in the pre-show. This is the dude. I've been saying the Machachev is the best lightweight in the world. since to be retired nothing he has done has shown me any different

I thought reflexively looking at this fight like I was just like yeah Islam's going to kill him and I still think that's the case after I watched the tape after broke it down so I obviously have Islam straight I got him at minus 180 of the price I got another little bit which I'll get into there

but if you guys want me to give you the full breakdown on why I think so I'd be happy to tell you why because I have a lot of thoughts on this fight but I want to go to Shaheen see where he feels what he feels is happening before we get into the nuts and bolt here. Sure.

I mean, this one, man, I mean, I know people keep saying this is sort of the discount, the Walmart brand, Habib Tony. And that hurts my heart in a way because I wanted that for so long. And I still, to this day, Prime Tony beats Prime Habib, whatever. We don't need to discuss that. I know I could see Jed shaking his head right now. But it doesn't matter. We don't need to discuss that.

But I can see the comparisons and I can see where sort of people are reaching for that. But to me, it just feels so very different. And Charles Oliver, like ultimately when we get to making our best in our picks, I will be on the Islam side because I believe along with Jed, guys, it's hard to say that guy's not the best lightweight in the world. Like Charles earned it. He deserved it right now. He has that title.

He's beaten pretty much everybody else in the top five for the most part. Like he gets his flowers. Like if Charles Oliverer is ever going to get his moment to get his flowers, it has to be right now. But Islam Makachep just feels like a different era coming, just bearing down. on this division. That man has been untouchable. It was like the same era that was previously here, and we just took a little break from it for a minute. It's just, he's Habib. He's Habib 2.0.

Listen, I don't say he's like Habib 0.7. Yeah, okay. I like that. So here's where I'm coming from. I am in 100% agreeance with you guys. I think Islam Makashv is going to win this fight. I wouldn't have placed the bet in December of last year, you know, instead of celebrating the holidays with my family, I'm finding lines on Islam Makashv, being a lightweight champion. at the end of 22. I am in agreement with you. The thing that worries me, the thing that scares me the most is Charles Olivera.

Every time I keep doubting him, he keeps pulling it out. It just feels like he has elevated himself to this new level where I don't even know how he's operating the way that he is. But what you said, he's getting through everyone in the top five, retaining his belt, even with everything that happened with the weight against Justin Gachey and everything. He just continues to surpass my expectations of him. and if he did it again on Saturday, I would not be shocked. I would still be pretty shocked.

And I've doubted him the whole way. Really? Even if this will really be shocked. If he knocks Islam on his ass and then gets his neck and chokes him out, you will be shocked. I'd be pretty surprised. Do you have any flashbacks from the Valentino confidence? Never. Connie, you've known me for a while now.

Confidence is not something I lack regardless of if there's reason or rationale behind it. I just, this fight, look, a smarter man than I probably would have some trepidation given the fact that I have been like, yeah, well, Dustin's going to tool him up and Gachy's going to tool them up. And I'll even Chandler's going to tool them up. I don't know if you guys remember those fights. They all did. Just beat the hell out of him. Now, they didn't win the fights because Charles Olivera became way tougher. Like, that was always the knock on him with that he was a quitter.

and then he didn't. I have a theory on how that is, and one piece of it is that you know, you grow, you improve. The other part is that, yeah, the other part is really, and this is the core principle of what I think. I think this is a horrible style matchup for Charles.

That's the thing. Because I think Gaichi and Porier are really bad style matchups for him too. I think they did not fight smartly. And what I mean by that is, Charles has weaponized the fear of his guard. in the same way that Fabricio Verdum used to do because he got hit and hurt. And if you go back and watch Michael Chandler, Michael Chandler punched him and he didn't give a shit.

He dropped right down in the guard and kept beating on him like he's redhead stepchild. And, you know, it was pretty close. Round comes to an end. Charles is able to survive. Round comes to an end. He's back on the feet and he gets to do his thing. The problem for Gaecci and Porier was both that they didn't want any part of it. If I go to the ground with him, I'm going to get the, like,

Like, that's, that's a dangerous proposition. It's actually way less dangerous than you think it is. Of all, he's the, the submission leader in the UFC. Can't take that. That is a number you cannot remove from him. Only two of those have come, like, traditionally from the back and guard work. Yes, he's active. He looks for sweeps and stuff.

But people have had success being on top of him. Kevin Lee had success being on top of him. Like, Nick Lynch had some moments there. Paul Felder just, Elber was freaking Jason. Like, you, the, the fear of his guard is way worse than the actual danger. But because of that fear, he was able to, and I'm not, I think Gachie heard him once or twice. I think he fell to his back like three times in that fight. It's just, it's just a defensive reflex. He gets a standing 10 count of I get hit, I drop down. You're

not going to play. I get to recoup myself, get back up and do it again. At that point, it's really honestly a genius thing to do to weaponize that fear. because it has created a bad math problem for his opponents of every time you hurt me, I get a break and I get to recover. The one time I hurt you, I'm on you. I'm just going to attack you. I'm going to get the takedown. I'm going to start looking, being predatory with my grappling.

That is a really bad math problem. Marketschev doesn't give two shits about that math problem. Oh, cool. You want to go to your back? Sweet. That's where I want to be. I think on the feet, Mokachev could have success anyway.

I don't think that's going to come to play. He's just going to tackle Charles. Charles is going to do it. The first round is the only round I think Charles is really dangerous because he is active with sweeps and looks for stuff. I just don't think he's going to have any success there. If you go back and watch the Kevin Lee fight, and that's second round, Kevin Lee, the first round,

Charles is moving. Things are happening. Still think Kevin Lee is coming out ahead in those scrambles, but Charles is in it. The second round, Charles is. getting flattened out, getting dominated, getting controlled. The third round, Kevin Lee is gas, shoots a bad takedown, Charles hits the galley on him. If Kevin Lee has more gas than that and doesn't take a bad shot, he can still lay on him.

I think Islam is just going to take him down, beat him up, sit in his guard, hang out and be comfortable with it. And that's, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I just, I watched all the fights, man. I can't see a way where that isn't the outcome. here. So you know my bet. I also took a shot on a prop, uh, Makachev in round four plus 1800. Oh, I have that too. All right. Oh, do you. Nice. The theory just being that, you know,

Connor, at the top of this when you said any outcome wouldn't shock you, I would, I will be more shocked if Islam wins a decision than if Charles pulls off submission certainly because when Charles loses, he, he loses. He's been stopped in seven of his eight losses. He doesn't lose a tough split decision or whatever. He gets beat up. And that's, you know, that whole book on him is mostly put to bed. I think Asaam's going to bring it back up because I think when you spend 15 minutes underneath the dude beating the shit out of you, you're going to start looking for ways out. Or it's going to be easier to say, I don't want to do this anymore. This sucks. And I think, you know, we've seen Charles fight for a long time. I think in the fourth round is

just when it gets to be too much. And that's when first round's competitive. Second round, Islam takes over. Third round, he's starting to really put it on him. Fourth round, Charles is done. So it took a shot on plus 1,800 there as well. Ask him a breakdown of the fight. Y'all can talk on it.

Beautiful breakdown. I have to lead with that. That was a beautiful breakdown. If you're going to be that confident, you might as well have the reasoning behind it. And, I mean, you have me convinced. You have me at least feeling better. I didn't need any convincing.

I will say that. I am on Makashib's side here. but you've definitely made me feel better about my bets. You mentioned round four. So I actually did take a prop in addition to my futures here. It's Islam in rounds one, two, or three at plus 150. So hopefully if he gets a finish, one of us is cashing a ticket there and it doesn't come in round five. Yeah, if he gets a finish in round five, that just threads the needle in the worst way possible for us.

Yeah, that would be a sweater. I will say, the way you lay that out, I think was very eloquent. Because we hear often about guys weaponizing pace and that sort of thing, right? And you're right. Charles, at this point, with the success that he's had over these last couple years, he has really weaponized his reputation in a way that is really unique. And I don't know that there's a lot of, like, comparisons to it. Fordome is like the only other dude.

He is lightweight Verdome. Like, that's very, very similar careers and games. He's obviously extraordinarily talented on the ground. but you're right, it is mostly reputation of this idea of being scared to be sort of in a top control situation with Charles Oliver, because you're right, a lot of people have had, maybe not a lot, but people have generally had success when they're in that environment. And that's Islam's bread and butter. My one worry in this whole situation, though, when it comes to laying money on Islam is just the pure chaos factor. And that's when I go back to the Tony comparison, that was always the thing that I always held out on with the Tony Khabibibat. is just the pure chaos that Charles will create in this fight.

And he is so good at creating chaos with these guys' confusion and just sort of making things weird, making things feel grimy. And a lot of that is sort of the falling back to his back strategy that has worked out incredibly well, especially against Gagchi. Gichi was terrified to go against the ability to create confusion and chaos in there can lead to very wacky results. And we've seen it consistently, especially with this Charles Zola, Levera run, which if you just look at it, pound for pound, might be the single most entertaining

championship run we have seen since, what, like Connor? And that's not even really a championship run because he didn't have any title defenses. Like, it's up there. And so that would be my one pause, would be the confusion and chaos factor that this man inherently brings into this. I'm 100% with Eugene. It's what you just said, the chaos thing. That's what I always go back to with Charles. And it's the way that he is so calm amidst the chaos in these recent fights. I know he's, used to have the quitter, you know, label around him. But now, like, if I was just watching back to Gaichi fight, and it's just like, he gets knocked down. It's what Jed said. He uses that time. All right, come down the mirror. Let me recoup.

All right, stand me up. I'm right back to what we were doing. Let's go right back to it until he finds his shot. And then as soon as he finds the shot, drops down to the ground with him, doesn't get the initial choke, stays calm. And then just as soon as Gaichi tries to get back up, the neck over first round. It's just like he's demeanor. And then he just stands up, the belt thing and that's it. Like, it's just like the way that he can't handles chaos and creates chaos is such an advantage for him. I'm with you, Shane.

That's why I don't have the confidence that that Jet does going into this. I understand everything you guys are saying. I just think Habib and Islam don't, they don't mess with chaos. They are inevitable. And that's like, that's why I think this is a really, like, I cannot envision. Habib is the only dude who is a worst style matchup because he is more athletic than Islam like that's really the only difference

like he's just a better athlete so he would really totally truck Charles but like I just I don't it will be incredibly impressive I'll have to eat buckets and buckets if Charles pulls it off just an infinite amount of it

I may I may delete my Twitter and just hide forever if that happens I mean if it happens just post the Nuna's Pena video over and over again. I mean, that's true. I do have that one. I do have that one. But it's just like that will make me, I still wouldn't even make me a believer because

I still won't understand how it happens. All right. He'll obviously be the best lightweight in the world, but it's still, this is a, his process is awesome and it's really fun. It's a really smart way to use, like, to build his game. it has like a clear timeline and obvious deficiencies and I can't see it like it shouldn't continue to work this well is my main thought like at some point this should stop because he's not defensively responsible like at all you like look at the history of UFC champions none of them

are bad to feel like have bad defense like none of them do it's just it's one of the things of the sport. You mentioned that defensive responsibility. Every time that I am about to bet on an Islam-Makashv fight, every time I go to the stats. Do never gets touched. It's insane. Can we talk about the lucky number 13? He has never

been had more, his opponent has never landed more than 13 significant strikes on him in a fight, but three times they have landed exactly 13. Like that makes no sense to me. According to the UFC like stat leaders page, all time he has the few

with strikes landed on him per minute at 0.86. Like the defensive numbers that he has around him are insane. Yeah, he's, that, that's part of why he's inevitable. Like, the only way I honestly see you beating him is if you have to be a John Martinez, who pulled one hyperviolent moment out of his ass. And like, that's it. And for as much as, as much as people want to give, like, Israel a disinia grief and stuff, the primary skill set that makes champions have long and productive careers is they have incredible

defense. And then if on top of that you have a really good chin, then nobody can get you out of there. And that's a different math game, right? You have more skills. So on a longer timeline, you will win any fight. And it's it. It is impossible for me to look at Charles Oliver how frequently he gets hit and be like, that dude is going to stay atop for a very long time.

And it just seems that Islam is like the exact worst man for him to fight in this moment. That being said, I will say, Charles Olivera is a killer be killed type of fighter. His past 18 fights, he's had one decision, whether it's win or loss, he's gone to the judges once. So I will say those Islam Makachev inside the distance at minus 105 numbers, juice that up a little bit rather than minus 170. for the straight money line, go inside the distance minus 105. I like that quite a bit. Also, I will sprinkle a little round two, round three, round four. Two is like 550, three is 1,000.

Round four is 1800 and the over is at plus 130. I just see a fight very much like you laid out, Jed, where it gets to round three, round four, and just the wearing down of Charles Oliver, just the Islam being overwhelming and getting into that place that maybe he used to go to. And maybe that doesn't exist anymore. Either way, just overwhelming Charles slowly and just making him demoralized.

I see that sort of how this is playing out. I actually love that you just said that. I'm with you. I love the idea of just taking the inside the distance prop. I mean, it's everything that you said, how chaotic everything gets. He is literally a killer-be-killed fighter. I mean, if you also, Islam, he gets the lay and pray rep, but seven of his 11 wins are by finish.

Like, he's no stranger to getting a finish. The last four have all come by finish. And if you just look at the two fights combined, 42 UFC fights for the guys, 35 of them have not gone to a decision. I just think it's one, in my opinion, like it is, we always talk about parlay fodder. I think the fight does not go to a decision is a fantastic parlay piece. I've already got it in a couple parley's. Took it once at minus 350, took it again at minus 400.

Just the way that these guys fights, whether it's Charles making it chaotic early, he gets a finish or he leaves himself open to getting finish. or if it's just the wearing of Islam over the rounds, I just, I would, I would really be shocked if we, if we are seeing the, the horn go after 25 minutes and we, we have to sweat out a decision. What is the, what's the fight doesn't go the distance prop? Right now it's minus 450.

Yeah, there you go. Still hefty. So it keeps going up. That's where people see it. I mean, yeah, it's, it's going to be hefty. I mean, for, for a guy, Chehien just said it. Would you say 17 of his last 18 have knock onto a decision? Yeah.

Yeah, man, the dude, and he doesn't do it. He doesn't go to the cards. Also, the ones that have, he's never gone to a decision in a five-rounder. I'm pretty confident when I say that just off the top of my head. Yeah, because the purpose was the three-rounder. Yeah. Seems very unlikely that we're getting a decision. So that is a good parley piece.

I might add it to this two. I mean, if you look at them to 27 of the 42 have ended in the first two rounds combined for the guys. So, yeah, I can't say it enough. I felt the same way about Yuri Glover, and that barely didn't go to a decision. It really, really. That whole fight was insane and wildly different than anything I thought could have happened with it. It's a nice thing to keep in mind that quite literally anything can happen in this sport.

I mean, yeah, you know, that's the entire premise of the Costanza theory rests on that very idea. All right, so we are all aligned and we think Islam Makashv is going to be the new lightweight champion of the world. Me and Shaheen are proceeding with a touch more confidence and Jed is putting his entire reputation on the line on Islam getting this done. It's pretty true. I'm not putting my entire bank account.

Let's be really clear here. I like that. That's a standard set of bets here, but I honestly, the biggest concern, and I'll end here because we've got other fights to talk about, the biggest concern I have is that so many people think I'm insane. And I'm just like

maybe I'm too confident. Because, like, nobody thought I was crazy, like, Valentina can never lose or whatever. But so many people who I respect are, like, that's nuts that it makes me think, well, maybe I'm just, maybe I'm on my bullshit right now. And I can't see the forest for the trees. But we'll find out on Saturday. Yeah, one argument I'll make against those. I think Valentina was like minus 800 and Islam is like minus 180. Yeah.

That's the thing. I'm genuinely shocked. He's my, I thought that he would be like a minus 250 at the minimum. He opened it, like, minus 400. Yeah. That's kind of, I thought that maybe that gets bet down because that's a pretty high opener, but like minus 250, minus 300. That's where I thought. The fact that this is close. People come around. They respect the man. Respect. Check theollives. Yeah, that's a, that's a fact. All right. Minus 400 is outrageous. Jesus. That's why I took the half edge. That's why that was back in, I think it was like February 27th. I took the bet. I thought it was a little disrespectful as well.

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Every fight's good. It's amazing. I can't wait. Right now we got the men's bantamweight championship. Al J. Stirling going up against T.J. Dillishaw. Sterling right now can be added for minus 175. Dillishaw plus 150 over under set at four and a half over minus 205 under plus 165.

What are we got? We got any bets for this one? I do. I know as well. Oh, okay. Do you have straight action? Are you propping? I got straight action.

I'll just come out and say it. I took Al Jermaine. Not with the utmost confidence you're on T.J. Oh, for sure, dude. I was surprised by those underdog, underdog odds on T.J. Are you as confident as you are on Islam? I'm pretty confident. I'm not as confident.

I have one very real question about T.J. And it's just that he's old. Like he's 36 or about to be 30. He's in the neighborhood. And that's just really old for anything that's below 185, basically. It's about to be 37, actually. He was about to be 37, yeah. Yeah.

We've also only seen him fight one time in the last 45 months. Yeah, that one doesn't concern me as much because I saw that fight, and I think that he still has it for the most part. My gut told me that I would have been on T.J. And then when I cracked tape, I was like, T.J.'s going to kill this dude. Like I think this is going to be a Hinnon Borough-esque styling on Al Jermaine Sterling, assuming that being old doesn't really catch up to him. And let's be clear, because right now,

Carly got some listeners who are like, well, you're just a hater. I was the guy at Eminemay fighting who was standing for Al Jameen Stirling. Shaheen can attest to this. When everybody else was on their bullshit with Putin, Piotr Yann is the number one ranking. Ben Way in the world. It was me and I don't remember who the other stalwart was that said Aljo deserved the ranking. I have stood by this man not for any of his beliefs or things that he says, but his in cage performances, but this is a bad fight for him, man. Like this is, if T.J. is still

mostly there, it's really tough for him. Aljo has one really good skill. It's taken the back, right? Like, he can do that. That is a tough game to pull off against T.J. Dillishaw, man. T.J. Dillashaw is a really good defensive wrestler. So is Peoria. But do you just take a guess, guys? Do you know how many, like how long collectively has somebody controlled T.J. Dillishaw during all of his UFC fights? That's a great question.

I don't have the answer to. Oh, man. 88 seconds total. I was going to say I put the over under at two minutes. It's not up. 88 seconds total, the longest of which was dominant crews with a whopping 33 seconds of control time. off of four takedowns. The man is spring-loaded.

He just pops right back up if he gets taken down. And he's not going to do the Piotr-Di-on. Here's my back. Because that's not how he does. Like he's, I don't see Aljo getting to the back. And I have no confidence in Al Jemian Sterling as a striker. And that's just it.

Like he, he's not awful at it. He is so obviously uncomfortable doing it that it makes me uncomfortable watching him. Like he does everything a little too fast. a little too aggressive. It looks like a guy who doesn't want to do this. And so his response is to do too much of it. And that's what happened.

It's what happened in the first Peoria fight? What's started to happen in the second? He's a little too frenetic. And T.J. Dillashaw is a fluid striker. I think he's, I don't think Aljo can get the takedowns. I think T.J. is just mostly going to tune him up on the feet. I don't know if we get a stoppage or not. But unless Aljo can come out like a house,

on fire, find the back, and finish the thing, and he is really good at that very thing. Maybe he can do it. Nothing I've seen in Dillishaw's career makes me think that that's probable for how to beat him. So I've got T.J. Underdog Od. The odds keep moving more towards Aljo, which is also very surprising to me. I thought that T.J. would get a little bit more comeback as a fight junior.

I guess people would just hate man on the juice, but I got Dillishaw at plus 150, and I feel pretty good about that bet. We can talk about moving on next up, but Shaheen, let me hear what you think about this one. Sure. And Jed, can I give you one stat to play devil's advocate and see what you think about it? Sure. Does it concern you even the slightest? You open this by talking about T.J. Dillashaw's age.

If T.J. Dillashat was to win on Saturday and become the UFC Bantamweight champion, he would be by far, by far the oldest undisputed UFC champion under a, under, of 170 pounds in history. Lightweight, featherweight, bantam weight, flyweight, he would by far be the oldest champion to ever become undisputed and hold the belt at 36. Does that concern you? Because that, to me, tells you.

That's the big concern. Right? Because in these lower weight divisions, it is such a fast, quick trigger division. It's divisions that it's all about reflexes and just speed and timing and all of that. And those are the first things to go once you get up to 40. in middle age, does that concern you in the slightest with your confidence? Concern?

That is the concern in the fight. Like that's everything else feels very straightforward. It is just how much juice, pun, somewhat intended, does T.J. still have left in the tank. I think he still has enough because he looked mostly good in the Sandhagen fight. Sandhagen presents very, very different challenges. I want to be extremely clear. I do not think Dillishaw would beat Peoria. or Corey Sanhagen in a rematch.

And there may be a couple of the first fight, frankly. I mean, technically, but technically he did. But yes, that thing. If they rematch, I think San Hagan would actually get the job. Chad plays the technicality on wins when it's the fighter he's backing. When it benefits him. When he's making the claim, he's like, no, I was just clarifying for the listeners. I agree with Shaheen.

I don't actually think that TJ won that fight upon rewatching it earlier today. but he did technically win in case anyone is wondering. But yeah, his issues in that fight did not look to be age-related, so much as they look to be, that's a tough style fight for him. And I think he would lose the belt almost immediately, should he get it this weekend. But, you know, I just think Aljo, I think Aljo is a really bad matchup for a lot of people in the division. I think T.J. happens to be the rock to his scissors. Yeah, so for me,

Come in a event, UFC 280, I'm going to just have to put a bet down. That's just going to have to happen. So I did somewhat force this. You know, if this is happening on a normal week, I might not take it. The argument that I'll make sure. Always force bets.

That's what the smart gamblers do. That's what the Sharps do. That's plus EV for some bets, baby. Plus EV, baby. One thing on the DJ side that would concern me, it's everything that she just said. It's how old he is. We've seen him fight one time in 45 months.

I know you said the issues that were presented to him against Corey Sanhagen weren't age-related, but I do think he is past his prime. You know, you're talking about how much juice is left in the tank. Prime T.J. Dillishaw. You guys seen photos of that dude and fight? It looks like he might be on juice again. He looks like he has juice in the tank for this fight. Take that how you will, listeners. Yeah, I mean, the youth of Algeman, I think, is going to be advantageous for him. And then you mentioned the takedowns, not being able to get the takedowns. I know. 88 seconds for T.J. Dillishaw, you just mentioned that fantastic stat. That's a nice pull on that.

Al Jermaine attempted 22 takedowns against Peotriott and only landed two of them. That's a terrible stat for someone that needs to get T.J. Dillishol down. But all he needed was those two. And that is why he's still a Bannon Way champion. Over the 25 minutes, do I think he could pull something off again? I'm going to lean toward the sides of yes. And that's why I'm backing Al Jermaine's starting here. I'll give you a little bit of support, Connor, just statistically, Jan is actually better takedown defender than T.J. I don't. Yeah, I think Yon's like 90% or something.

He's like, he's very high in that regard. I don't think the way Aljo shoots takedowns, it plays the same versus the way T. Because Dillashaw, Jan is great, but his movement is very static. He's, he's pressuring you. He's mostly flat-footed, whereas Dillishaw's doing the bouncy Dwayne Ludwig switchdance of stuff, which I think actually makes it a little more difficult for Sterling's particular brand of getting inside and taking you down. So, you know, if you want to be a Sterling backer, take confidence in that. I will say I actually agree with you as well on the line moving on Algeman.

I think I took it. I'm stunned. It keeps moving towards it. I took you like a week and a half ago at minus 141. And I'm actually surprised that it's continuing to move in Aljo's realm because I know a lot of people that are backing Dillish. on this fight. A lot of people that, uh, their opinion I respect pretty highly. So I won't be shocked if, if Dillishaw gets the bell back here. My only answer is that I was surprised when I looked at the odds today and saw that Dillashaw was was the favorite or the underdog. Yeah, I assumed he would be a slight favorite. My, my thought is really that he's old and

rightly or wrongly, we don't have to litigate this here. It's not, not the time or the place. A lot of people think that his entire run is tainted and useless and that. none of his wins previously count. And that's the only thing I can, that makes sense to me because the in cage product, this fight is, should at worst be 50-50. I think if this goes to a decision, you're almost guaranteed a 48, 47, maybe even a split. I feel like it's going to be, going to be razor thin. I agree with that.

Interesting. I agree with that. Dillishah, to me, like, I don't have a bet I particularly like on this fight, but Dillishaw, by decision at plus 300 feels like the best value. value on the board. I almost took that. Like I said, the comp for me here, and not a stylistic comp, but I think just how the performance is going to look is, is Henning Brow.

I think Dillard Shaw is really just going to put himself a class above. And so I think the most likely outcome is decision, but I also could see like a late finish as Sterling gets a little more tired and a little slower and gets teed off on a little more. So that's why I just took the straight action at plus 150. It's good enough value. All right. So I'm going to be on Al Jumaine. Jed will be on T.J. Dillashall.

That is the Bantamweight Championship. All right, we got the two title fights under our belt. Now we have the true Bannamweight Championship to talk about. Yeah. The People's Championship. Fun and tender on that, it is the people's main event. It is the men's bandamweight bout. Kiotr Yon going up against Sean O'Malley.

Right now you can get Yon for minus 265. That number is coming down. Some books have it at minus 250. Sean O'Malley coming back at plus 225 over under set at 2.5. Over minus 210 under plus 170. So truth circle. We're among friends here. I'll just go ahead and get this out of the way.

Trust tree. July, these lines dropped. I take yawn as soon as it comes out minus 275. Mr. Smarty pants over here. Big brain stuff. You know, beat the line movement. I think he's going to smoke them. Line drops down to like minus 400, minus 450 at some places.

sits there for about a month, month and a half, two months. And in the last like 10 days to two weeks, it is just getting steamed right back up. And it's going to look like I have a pretty bad line here on Peoria, especially playing a single at that big a number. But, you know, just breaking down the fight, I just think this is a huge step up in competition for O'Malley. I think Yon got a great test in Corey Sandhagen

for a stylistic matchup against Sean O'Malley, long, rangy striker that's going to throw some weird stuff at you. And I thought that Peoria handled that. that well. I mean, those last four rounds took them all even despite it being a super close fight. And I just think that this fight has a 2928, Kyoto-on victory written all over it. I feel similarly. This one, this one really got me because I was excited to take an underdog shot on Sean O'Malley if that got gassed up. And for a minute it was. And then it's come right back down. And I'm just like, I can't bet O'Malley at plus 230. So I don't actually think he's

going to win. I just thought people were gas in Yan way too high because I said this when the fight was announced. I actually think I said this on our post-fight show after Jan lost to Sterling, how I'm really interested to see what Jan looks like coming off this loss. Not because he's coming off a tight loss, but because Peter Yan is a five-round fighter. Like his style, the way his game works, thrives with more time. And three rounds, he is basically given off. given up every first round he's ever fought. Like he doesn't do as much. The first round is functionally what cost him in the rematch with Sterling because Sterling got

the takedowns and back control in two and three. The first round, Sterling just did stuff and Peirder doesn't do anything while he's getting reads. And that against O'Malley, like he's going to lose his first round almost certainly. Amali's a fast starter. I think he is going to come on strong in two. But in three round fights,

if you're if you're just punting one round to the approach, opponent, they only got to win five more minutes. And really, they only have to win three more minutes of that fight and then not be dead by the end of it. So I am really, the way his career came up, that never really hurt him. Now he is going to be fighting people who have a lot more tape, a lot more understanding of what his game is. I'm just really interested to see. I think Sean O'Malley is probably a good test for him in this regard because he should be able to get this done. but you put him in a three-rounder against some of these other hitters at Bannon weight and like, I mean, Jose Aldo would have beat him in a three-round fight.

Like, that would have happened. I have a lot of question. So I really wanted to take a shot on O'Malley, particularly O'Malley by decision, at a big, big number. And that number is just not where I wanted it to be now. It's too low because the public loves them the sugar show. So I have Yon in a parlay. Well, I don't have it yet because I'm still trying to figure out exactly.

I don't want this parlay to be, but I'm going to be putting Yan as a parlay piece here because I do think the style matchup, even with throwing away the first round, still favors him tremendously. Exactly what you said is my biggest concern going into this fight, because I also favor Pierrean. And I think Piotrion would win decisively in a five-round fight. Wouldn't have a question about betting him in a fiver. I would feel so supremely confident in betting him in that fight.

But just this is a man who has not fought for 50-year-old. 15 minutes of three-round fight since, like, what, 2019? We're about to go into 20-23. Like, it's been a long time, man. And he has adjusted and molded his style around these longer fights. And like you said, downloading the information round one, just sort of letting it come to him. You can't do that, especially against the guy like Sean O'Malley in a 15-minute fight. Like, you exactly what you said.

Sean's probably going to win the first round of this fight, and then it comes to, can Piotor just win the next two? So that's my biggest concern as well. So I don't know. But I do, I mean, this is Peodorian's fight to win. If they fight 10 times, it feels like he would win nine. I think so. I like Peter Yon decision minus 110. I kind of even like Yon inside the distance at plus 250.

Like if you can get a little bit of juice on Yon to do something special in the round three, like I kind of dig that. See, I had the same. I was trying to look at a prop where I could feel better. I just don't, I can see either of those things. I can see him getting a late stoppage on Sean. I could also see him getting just winning a 20, 2928. So it's just tough because O'Malley's, O'Malley should be better than he is, is all the other

problem when I was looking at this and I wanted to. And then I actually watched the tape. It's like, actually, Sean O'Malley is missing some really important components to his game. I think that's what's ultimately going to cost him here. He can't, he can't create offense unless you're giving him something to work off of. He very clearly watched Connor McGregor growing up. Like, he very obviously that was a major influence on his style but he he misses like a lot of the small things that Connor did that are really important he can't pressure effectively he doesn't really fight off angles all that well and so it's like like Pedro Munoz beat him like won the first round but just not engaging by just being like I'm going to stay away I'm going to stay all the way away

from you and you can't do anything as long as not run at you like holy impavia or um Chris Mutino, like you can't just fire off shots into my face. You're going to do dumb leg, like sweepy leg attacks and front kicks. He can't generate enough offense to win the later rounds, which is why I think he's kind of screwed here. I would like to see him to actually develop as a fighter because he has a lot of really good weapons. Listen, I like Sean O'Malley. I like watching him fight. I like the show that he presents.

I mean, he's a showman. I'm down for as many of those as we can get in the UFC. I just think it makes the product better. to me it just feels like just a big jump in competition i mean it's what you just talked about with pedro minos i mean that was his his toughest test to date uh and he lost the first round and then it ended in and you know a no contest with the i poke i wasn't wildly impressed from there i mean yeah he's looked impressive in the striking against guys like hollian piva who are running at him you know i mean chris matineo that's that's a short notice against a guy who's

not ufc level thomas almeda like he has not fought anyone, in my opinion, close to the stature of Jan. And then just watching back that Jan San Hagan fight. Yeah, the Cheeto one is a weird one too. But that didn't go well for him though, right? It didn't go well. I also don't think Cheetos quite where Yan is, but like that's it. And he lost that fight, I feel decisively.

But the Cheeto, the Cheeto, oh, sorry, go ahead, Carter. No, no, no, go ahead. Go ahead, Jane. I was just going to say, like, the Cheeto fight is emblematic to me of, of, I think, one of my big questions I still have for Sean, that, that also gives me pause going into a fight like this against a murderer like Peoria or Jan, which is just I still don't understand for however long this dude's been in our life

and Sean's surprisingly been in the UFC longer than you would think. It's sneaky long time. Yeah, like it's way longer than you would expect if I just asked you blind to say it. Oh, yeah. He has 10 UFC fights. Over like seven years or something.

2017. Yeah, five and a half years. This is year five for him. This is year five for him at this point. My one question that we still haven't seen even delved into really with this guy is how is he able to sort of handle adversity in any positive way because he has been a frontrunner his whole entire UFC career for the most part the one time we did see it actually really two times we saw him deal with adversity were the Munoz fight

and the Cheeto fight and both of those ended either weirdly or he lost it like I just I am not confident yet that he is able to get hurt and deal with it and battle back or getting a big hole deal with it in battle back, whereas I definitely know that Peoria Yon can absolutely do that. He is that dude. Yeah. He is that dude for sure. The line movement is definitely, you know, you hate to get a bad line on things. But I do know, and I feel good about the fact that, one, I think Kiotr Yan is just, A, a level above.

And two, he is going to fight for my money. I know that over the course of the 15 minutes, this dude is going to have no quit, no much. You always want someone that you bet on. One situation I do want to throw out to you that, watch. watching back a couple of Yon's older fights after looking at the statistics is a world where Yon takes this to the ground. He's going to do it. You think so?

I agree. He didn't do it against Sandhagen or Aljo, too, but he had 16 takedowns over the previous six fight. Well, one, he did, didn't he, he didn't take Aljo down, but in their second, in their second fight, he spent for long periods of time on top after Aljo had crappy shots or whatever. Sandhagen, he didn't really need to, he was winning the fight. Also, San Hagan is like long and a little tricky in that regard. I mean, he basically said on the MMAR with the Elwha,

a Juani great program earlier this week. Like, I don't think this is just going to be a kickboxing fight. Like he is a good wrestler. He's a very good top position grappler. I think he is going to mix that in. And I think in rounds two and three, he's really going to start taking over with volume and with takedowns. I'm glad you see it that way because I really think that's something

we're going to see is Jan taking this to the ground. And what you said, Gene, him dealing with adversity. What if Yon starts pounding him out on the ground? How is O'Malley going to react? Is he going to try and fight back or is he just going to, you know, he didn't get all that well when Cheeto did it? Did not react well at all, I would say. So that's something that I'm pretty intrigued in watching.

I think at the end of the day, though, I do think Yon is the one getting his hand raised likely 29, 28 decision. Full agreement across the board. Let's go. Hey, those Yon decision odds, minus one. 10, baby. Let's go. Pretty good odds for that, honestly. All right, those are the top three fights.

I might take a shot that. Biggest three fights, you know, on the card. We can start moving in a little more here. We'll keep it rolling on the main card. Wow, the disrespect for the next fight up, which is honestly maybe the most interesting fight in the card for me. That's insane. That is absolutely insane.

If you take the stakes out of it, if you're just talking about the fish fight. But you can't take the states out. No, but I'm just saying just on a, on a fake basis. Yeah, what are we talking about? That doesn't work for me because I think I know how that fight goes. That fight is going to be an ass kicking. I have no freaking clue what this next one is doing, man. Yesterday on the MMA, I was the only one that was most intrigued about the main event.

Like, I'm going to be like, I'm going to have to be sitting on my hands when they're making their walks out to the auction. I'm the most excited about that fight for sure. But I, like, I just have less intrigue because I feel really confident in the outcome. If I'm wrong, well, hell I'm wrong. You know, we already got that. This one, I have no idea. No clue to happen here. I was hoping you were going to have something good for me here because I do not have a bet.

Oh, all right, all right. Because I'm me. Of course I have a bet. Benile Darius, taking on the base. But it feels crazy. Oh, I can't wait to hear about. Oh, God, I'm excited. All right, it is the fourth fight on the main card.

It is a lightweight bout. It's Bineal Darius going up against Matthias Gameron. Right now you can get Gamrod for minus 190. B'Neil coming back at plus 160. Over under set at 2 and a half, over minus 185 under plus 1. 50. I got nothing on this fight. I have zero bets. I was kind of hoping you guys would be like, we're going to have to lay the smack on the underdog in Bonaill, and I was going to be like, all right, let's do it. But I have two bets. I have two bets, but I'm intrigued in what

Sean has. Because if he feels crazy about it, I think I know what bet you have, just by you saying that. But is it a straight bet or do you have a prop bet? Is that the bet that you feel crazy about? I have a prop bet. And for some reason, for some reason, just keep about to me. I think I think I think I'm on it with you. It feels wrong, but the Constanza principle feels like it's in full effect here where it's just like maybe I have no idea what I'm talking about, and this is actually the right way to go. Mine is that this fight just generally,

because I don't know, I don't have a read on this. I don't know who's going to win. So my bet would be just doesn't go to decision plus 120, which feels wrong because it feels like this fight is definitely going to go to a decision. But also these two dudes are just absolute savages in there, and they're always going for something. And it just, it feels like this is the type of fight where we could see chaos. I agree in a lot of principles with that.

Not where I was at, not where my bet is. Because that feels less crazy to me, mainly because one of my bets goes directly against this. I am on Benny Daryush, which I am surprised by, because I was talking with the great Mike Heck earlier today of MMMAFind.com great website. Great website. And I was like, you know, I think I got to take Gamrot before I dug into the tape and stuff. It was like, I just love Matush Gamrott. Like, I think he's awesome. That fight with Armand Sarukin, it's never going to get the love it deserves as a fight of the year contender.

It's probably going to be like number five on our list by the end of the year or whatever. But it was awesome. And I think Armand Sarukin is as inevitable as another dude we're going to talk about later this card, as is a Marguachev. That guy's holding a belt. There's no doubt in my mind. And so for Gamrod to lose, I think I scored the fight for him, but most people seem to believe that Armand won that fight. That fight is razor close. And for Gamrod to hold his own in that regard with it and basically be the 1A, 1B with Surukin gives me a lot of confidence in the man.

But Benny Daryush, there's just something about him. Like he's the most underrated fighter in MMA since Leon kicked Camaro in the head. I think that that's probably the title he gets now after Leon Kikamara in the head. The grappling in this fight is going to rule. It is going to beat some of the sickest shit you guys have ever seen. Go look at the wrestling exchanges between Gamrod and Sarukin. Benil Darius, the world class has thrown out too much. Benil Darius legitimately a world class grappler.

These exchanges are going to be awesome. I just think, I think this is close to a 50-50 fight. Daryush is plus 160. There's value there. And frankly, I kind of think after the tape that Dary Ush should be the favorite. He has more tools to win the fight. Gamrod is going to put a wicked pace on him. He's maybe a little bit more athletic than Bini Daryush, but Daryush is sneaky athletic.

And my issues, Gamrod is not nearly the striker that Daryush is. Not that Darius is a great striker, but Gamrod is really, really limited there. And Daryush is very willing. Daryush is a pretty damn good defensive and offensive wrestler And I think he is the better grappler Watching the way they exchange I think that there's a world here Where Gamrot tries to create scrambles and exchanges

And Daryush is able to hold his own Hold his down And I could be all the way wrong though Because I mean I've seen Gamrod fight man That dude's awesome So it is really hard for me to know But at the odds

I think Darayush has more tools So I'm taking him I also sprinkle just a little baby On the long shot of Derrush By submission at plus 1,000 Gamrot never been finished ADCC Like European champion or whatever

Like an unbelievable grappler I think Derrush is just that good man That like there's totally a world Where that could happen And plus a thousand Sort of just felt like firing a shot at it Oh I mean I actually can't say that I like that

because of the reasons, as you just say, about, you know, Gamrod's grappling chops. But I do like the Derrish. It's kind of been whispering in my ear, you know, he's on a six-fight windstreet, UFC vet, like, well-rounded, his well-rounded gets. He's, you know, he's going to be able to hold his own in the grappling department. He's never been taken down more than one time in a fight. I'm kind of with you. I haven't placed the bet yet, but this fight just feels 50-50 to me.

That, I mean, that's it. It feels like a 50-50 and it plus 160. that's a lot of value on Darius. I don't feel confident that this bet is hitting. I know, neither do I. But there's something about like the 50-50 I can see Darius. It's a coin flip. And like I don't think Gamerant can really challenge Daryush in the ways that we've seen

him struggle specifically getting clipped. Like that's not Gammot's game. On the other hand, like Gamrot landed a bunch of, who was he fighting who kept kicking him and he kept grabbing and taking him down? I can't remember this. Like that's very much a thing that is in play where Darius, good kicker, throws a body kick, Gammar, just grabs it, takes him down, and then can hold position. I could see this fight playing out a ton of different ways, but at these odds, give me a fire on Daryush.

Does the layoff concern you at all? Because if you look at how long B'Neil has been out, there's no possible way he's going to be in rhythm to start this fight. Right? It's 17 months. Gamrod's fought three times since the last time we saw Benile Darius fight. And I love Benile Darniush. He's been underrated in this division for a long time. In retrospect, the Tony Ferguson win looks a lot different than it did in the moment

to the point where, like, Gamrod would be, in my opinion, the best win that Benial would have on his record by far. Well, I think that's for sure true. No, I'll tell you, honestly, the thing I'm more concerned about is it really feels like the MMA gods just hate B'Neil Daryush, that's way more concerning to me. That plays into the layoff. He's had just the unluckiest stretch during this 17 months.

It is much less a science math. It's just like, I don't know, the M.A. gods are vengeful bastards and it feels like Darius piss them off somewhere along the line. And like, this is the exact moment on the cut. I mean, he's already been screwed.

He is fighting another top lightweight contender on the undercard of a lightweight title fight, and he is somehow not the backup for the main event, which is the most disrespectful thing I've ever heard. And I'm a dude who has ranked as a markage of the greatest lightweight in the world for a year over everybody else. Like, it's unbelievably disrespectful. It just feels like the universe hates the man. And it would be really par for the course for him to catch this L in this position.

And that is very, very concerning to me. Also, I don't believe that he's 32 or 33. I feel like he's 50. He seems like he's 50 years old because I thought he was 30 like 10 years ago when he was fighting Scott Holstman and stuff. So it is shocking to me that he is like in the prime of his athletic career. That still blows my mind. I have no trouble believing Matush Gamrot is in his mid-30s. He's got some salt and pepper too.

It must have just been salt and pepper. He's had something for a while though. I know. Some of us go bald early and some of us get salt and pepper early. Yeah, he's got the salt and pepper. And again, I think he's a better athlete than he gets credit for, but he doesn't have the most impressive physique. He just feels like an old guy. Like Damian Maya felt old for his entire life in the UFC. And Benio Darius feels the same. It's really tough for me to bet him against a guy like Gamrod. But everything else points to be like Darius has where the value is. So this fight I'm stoked about because I have no idea what's going to happen. Anything could happen and I would believe it. I'm even more excited now that we took a trip to conspiracy corner. I'm here for that.

Man, I introduce you to Bryce Mitchell. He's got some ideas and some thoughts for you. You know, I could convince Bryce on a couple of things. I'm pretty sure. I don't know if I'm going to get around to playing Benil, but it's going to be in the back of my head the entire week. I mean, the line I think is going to keep moving towards him, too. Like, I think Gamerat's going to be, what is he right now this moment?

Minus 190, I think. Yeah, he's definitely going to close at minus 200 or above that. I feel really confident that that action's going to come in on him. But how much of that is just an out-of-sight, out of mind thing, where we just haven't seen Benile for so long? And we've seen it. I also think people love like a hot prospect. He was a double champion KSW. He's 21 and 1.

He's coming off to win against Armin Sarukin. I feel like people love, I mean, look at Victor Henry last week. People were running to the window to parley-in-lop and minus 400. Fools. Fools were doing that. Yeah, I mean, that's a direct shot at everybody. After our board from Alpharetta got it done. Yeah, man, it's some of it's that, Sheen, some of it's just that, like, what's,

Penil has awesome wins, but he's still not high in the popular conscience because he takes time off, because he's taking a bunch of time off. because he just feels like he's not. He feels the exact opposite of inevitable. And I don't think Gamron feels necessarily inevitable, but on that spectrum, he feels certainly much more towards, yeah, this guy is a thing he's happening.

He is ascending. All right. We're all kind of leaning in B'Neil. Maybe Jed's already locked in the play. That is the fourth fight on the main card. Let's get to the last one. It is a women's flyweight bout. Caitlin Chukagian going up against Manon Fioro.

Fioro coming in right now at minus 205 Chukagian plus 175, over 100 set at 2.5, over minus 350, under plus 270. I am a huge Manon Fiora fan. I think it is a damn shame that we lost her off of the UFC Paris card. I think it's great. I mean, what's not to like? You don't like Menon Fioro? No, I think her fighting at Paris would have been good,

assuming it was still the Chukagian fight. I think had she fought Jessica and Jod. as was briefly there, that would have been horrifically bad and not a thing we need. Because it's way more fun when Minotinouro is like a contender than another body who got backed up by Jessica and Drodge. It's neither here nor there on whether or not she was going to get bagged up by Jessica and Drash. 4 and O in the UFC, the Beast, rightful name, has yet to drop a round. Got real deep into that today.

Ten rounds she's fought in. Not one single judge has given it to her opponents. striking differential is off this world 4.08. I mean, she can mix in the takedown. She's got great takedown defense. She's aggressive. I just see her getting it done. I think she's going to be quicker than Chukagin.

I think she's going to be more aggressive. I think she's just going to outstrike her over the three rounds. Mixing the takedowns. I mean, we saw Hebus get Chukagin to the ground. I think Minofio is going to have similar success. And I think she gets this done via unanimous decision. Sean, where are you out on this fight? because I have, I'm in a pickle.

I'm in a bit of a pickle because the power, the overwhelming power of Chukagian by decision. That's so. Chikagin by decision. It's so difficult to overcome. It's really tough, man. I was really going to be shocked that if neither of y'all had Chukagin by decision, I'm not going to lie.

I don't even know what the line is. I didn't even want to be tempted. I didn't even look at it. By UD, by UD, it's plus 275. splity plus a thousand it's a big decision is there a normal decision line hold on let me pull it up right now I was more looking at the

Shaggy and my decision is plus 240 is what I saw yep that's still overall and the fact that she's even plus 175 feels like value there it's crazy when you look at these two because I think we look at these two and Menon feels like this up and coming young new name prospect they're basically the same age it's just a matter of when they started

like Chukagian was already three and one in the UFC when Menon made her like MMA debut like the fact that her real one or her because she had like an Emmy career didn't she MMA has a like pro-MMA people's ages to you yeah it's it's

as much as I try to get over to overcome it I can't it's Chukagin by decision for me like Chukagian plus 175 feels delicious Chukagian decision plus 240 feels like the move over 2.3 rounds at minus 370.

Feels like a parlay piece if I've ever seen one. I've just feel like I've seen this fight a thousand times before where some big prospect who's going to go do big things in this division meets up with Caitlin Chuggan and we get a very boring 15 minute decision. And we know who wins those. I love this energy. That bet calls to me. I can't make it because this whole fight is really weird.

I'm really interested in it because I like Manaw, I'm not sure she's very good at fighting. She's not bad at it, certainly, but like, she doesn't do anything that I can look at and hang my head on. She doesn't jump off the page. She does not jump off the page at all. Like, she is, her greatest strength is that she is a plus athlete in a division that is mostly not athletic. And that is a huge help for her. But like, she can wrestle a little bit.

and ostensibly she should be a good striker, but she's really not. Like she is, she is fast and has some power because she's an athlete, but her mechanics aren't great. She, the Jennifer Maya fight, man,

like that's the fight that really made me, because I came into this, like Connor being like, Manaw, let's go, Fioro. And it was like, she's going to win Chuggan, getting a little older, Manon's ascending, etc.

And go back and watch it. And it's like, Jennifer Maya is not what anybody would consider. a dominant striker, like a really good striker. But strictly by the value of Jennifer Maya saying, F it, and chucking them, like just coming forward and chucking them, put Minot on on the back foot a bunch, made a really uncomfortable, made Minot look for the takedowns. And like, Chukagin's a bad striker, too.

She's not very good at it. But what she, she is enthusiastic about it, if nothing else. And like that, this feels, I can't bet furo minus 205. I just can't do it because I think the line should be tighter because Chukagian's got that dog in her. And Monon just doesn't have the acumen, like the technical acumen to make me feel that she deserves that, that juice against somebody who only loses to the best of the best. I kind of want to take Furo by decision because this is definitely going to the full 15. But like it's just hard. I'm just staying away unless one of you was going to really sell me on something that I could get behind

and maybe I take a shot on the split decision. Pitch me. Can I give you the elevator pitch? And it's a simple one. Absolutely. Give me the elevator. How are you going to feel on Sunday morning when you're sitting there? Look at your account, looking at your slips.

And Caitlin Chukagy, and by decision was plus 240, so juicy sitting there. When's the next time you're going to get Caitlin Chukagin by decision of plus 240 and you didn't take it? How are you going to feel? That's the pitch. That is a decent pitch. You sold me. I'm in. I'm actually there.

You're going to feel stupid. Betting is supposed to be fun and it's way funnier if Chukagian wins just an ugly, ugly decision here. Because the ultimate thing is I don't think Furo is going to show out against Chukagin. She may well win this. fight. But it's not going to be a she tunes her up or styles on her. She's just going to be a little bit faster, a little bit more athletic, maybe he scores some takedowns. This is going to be grimy. And Caitlin Chukagan defies the laws of science. She just wins grimy fights. So you sold me, Sean, I'm in. Let's go. Let's go. Sure. Sure. You know, I get it. You did just

mention the Maya fight. You know, 3027s across the board as, as bad as you said, she looked thoroughly outstruck her, you know, did get those takedowns. I guess my pitch against it would be how are you going to feel in the morning when, you know, you almost took them a known FiorR, which will be green. I'll feel fine. Chukagin will be red. I can't take Furo at minus 205. I could talk myself into Furo by decision at minus 110, which actually means what I should be betting on

on this fight instead of my decision is just fight goes to decision prop. Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, I did play the over two and a half. Yeah. Like the over two and a half is actually the bet that I should. should just put into a parlay, but it's way more fun to shout death taxes and Chukagin by decision on Saturday afternoon should she finally get her hand raise. So I'm not going to pull her full

unit on it, but I'll take a shot because let's have some fun, baby. Let's have some fun, baby. Let's have some fun. That is the main card. I will be on Firo. They are on Chukagin by decision. Let's get into the prelims. First up, Welterweight bout. We've got Balaamah going up against Sean Brady. Brady right now can be had for minus 145, Belaw coming back at plus 125. I have never bet on Belal Muhammad before. Is there a real thing I'm going to start now? You think you're going to or you're not going to start now?

And I don't think I'm going to start now because I took Sean Brady as soon as these lines dropped and I would take him again right now. You know, I'm not going to go full cheese steak like we did with Pat 7. Teeny felt like we kind of jinx the guy put a little too much pressure on him. Don't put that jinx on me. You're the man who ruins bets with your shirts and all the stuff. You're the jinks here. I've watched the MMA hour.

I know how the shirt game works. Don't be wearing a Phillies jersey or whatever come Saturday. We can't do that. I do have a little something in the air for Saturday. You'll find out about it then. You guys will both be happy with it. I can assure you that. Or the T-shirt curse is just fake and people love pushing narratives.

It's, you know, been working the Bill's jersey pretty nicely lately. Von Miller every game, you know, three and one, no big deal. Big one over the Chiefs on Sunday. That's neither here nor there. Felt like we might have jinxed them on the cheese steaks. Not going to do that again. But since then, I mean, we got Shaheen here in the Patty's Pub shirt. Phillies are in the NLCS.

Eagles are 6 and O. Is the prodigial son, prodigal son of Philadelphia going to, let us down? I think not. Sean Brady remains on defeat. He gets the winner of Belawahmahman. Don't hate it. Shaheen, how are you feeling? I don't hate it either. Are you taking him straight

or are you taking him by some sort of prop? No, no, no. I just took him straight. This is a close enough time that I took him straight. Yeah, I mean, like I said, bet against Balal in Lucke, lost money. Bet against Balaw with Wonderboy, lost money, too. Like, it was like, Third, fourth round, you're like, I'm losing money on this.

We're done here. It's not going to work out. Let's go ahead and move on to the next one. So, yeah, it's a time-honored tradition for me at this point, losing money, betting against Belal Muhammad. And hopefully it doesn't continue on Saturday, but I'm happy to give him the opportunity to continue it. This does feel like the moment it will end that occurs for you.

Because you just mentioned all those different fights. Those were great stylistic fights for the way Baham-Bel-Mohman has been approaching his career in this chapter, this title run that he's on, right? He's very wrestling heavy, very grappling heavy. A lot of, you know, maybe it's not the most exciting, but he's getting it done. That's not going to work against Sean Brady. You have to think, right? Like that is very much in Sean Brady's wheelhouse.

Lots of takedowns, lots of grappling, lots of ground and pound, lots of top control. Like Sean Brady feels like the dude coming up at 170 who's all about that life. I just can't. When I visualize this fight in my head, I cannot see Balaamahman pulling a 50-minute late. and prey on Sean Brady. That just doesn't feel conceivable to me. So I'm with you as well. I'm on Brady.

I kind of like Brady by decision at plus 150 because both these men are, I don't think anybody's getting stopped in this fight. Like, Palala is a very tough individual. I also just generally like goes to decision, fight goes to decision at minus 225. Either of those feel like kind of nice pieces. Love what you're saying there, Shaheen. I took the over two and a half in this one,

parlayed it up with the previous fight. We just talked about Minotafiro, Katie Lent Trukegan. That's a parlay piece. minus 117. I like that. What's that come to? Do you know? It's a reasonable parley.

It pays minus 117. One, oh, okay. All right. I'm writing that down. It's a reasonable parley. So I am on Brady by decision. I took that at plus 150 for all the reason Sean said. I think that there's a world where we'll all wins this fight.

Oh, there's definitely a world. It's why I didn't want to take Brady at the straight odds. This is one of the bets that I, I don't, I like it, but maybe shouldn't have made it just because, like, I, I think Brady should win grappling. Should it happen? But both of these dudes are really, really good defensive wrestlers outside of their offensive wrestling. They're both really, really good. Like, you don't take Blah Mohamed down.

You don't take Sean Brady down. And in a striking battle, Sean Brady is pretty, is still pretty raw, pretty rough around the edges on the feet. That's true. You're talking to a man who has him, I think, ranked number six in the world. It might even be five in my Walterway rankings. I think this dude is going to challenge for a title. But Ballal is, he's certainly more active on the feet. I don't know if he's better, but I think there's a world where he can outwork him now.

My big question here, the ultimate tipping point for me is, Ballal kicks a lot. Brady's very good at catching kicks. I was earlier talking about somebody catching kicks. I was crossing my wires. It's this one because Keesa kicked Brady a bunch. and Casey got taken down a bunch and dominated. So if Ballaw comes out, though,

and that body kick that he likes, Brady's probably going to catch it and dump him. And that's kind of where I feel the most confident. Brady can have success finding takedowns, but I think this is going to be a really tough fight, like really close back and forth battle on the feet, maybe some grappling exchanges. I could see Ballal winning.

But again, this is a bet where I should just be betting the Goes to Decision prop. It's obviously a much smarter bet, but instead I was like, yeah, screw it. Let's go Brady by decision, because I do think he's going to win. Yeah, I'm 100% with you, man. I mean, I think that Brady's strength is what Shaheen said is going to benefit him.

And it's going to negate a lot of the matchup stylistically that the advantages that Belaw's had of late. I mean, one of the biggest one is Sean Brady is just a bolder, dude. He is just a strong dude. He's a thick boy. Yeah, I think that's going to play a huge for him, great wrestler, BJJ Black Belt. That Keesa fight is awesome where Kees is gripped against the fence. And he goes, oh, you really are strong. He just says that.

while he's fighting Sean. Yeah. I actually think that Kia is a fight. That like ending where it got kind of sketchy and he sort of got dropped against the fence. You know, I feel like that's good for him. Kind of getting a little scare in him. He's at a year off. I think he's only going to continue to improve working out of Hino-Gracy-Filly.

So I like Brady to get it done. I think I can end the streak here on losing money on below. I think so. I will say that I'm betting a lot on progression. I think he is going to be better. If this were a five-round fight, if this were a fight, our main event is like it's real tricky. Like I ball could really win rounds four and five here and make this a real interesting one.

But yeah, I'm, this isn't. It's only 15. I think Brady should do enough to win 15. Yeah, I think it's going to be interesting regardless. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay. Life's the trip. Make the most of it at Best Western.

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groceries that over deliver. Surface-based exclusions and terms apply. All right, let's keep it moving. We've got to move through these remaining prelims. It is a middle-weight bout up next. Mok-Mud Muradav going up against Keio Bahalo. That's a mouthful to say. Saying it fast.

I'm just kind of reading, you know, casually. That's a tough one. So right now you can get Bahá'u for minus 200. Muradav for plus 170, over under set of two and a half, under minus 115, over minus 115. I teased it, Jedd to you, and a Slack message, you know, no response, whatever. I guess we're just ignoring Slack. That's a busy day, man.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. How about going on. Excusees, excuses. I said I found another sub prop that I plan on losing on. I'm on a wild streak right now. I mean, it's got to be getting up to like six or seven sub props in a row that I've lost on. I mean, I just dial these things up and they're just fire them off into the sun. They're just automatic losers.

But I have done... Fire them off into the sun. I have done just a little. that on Kyle O'Brawlo here. Let's go. At plus 550, I'm taking the sub prop. So I watch back some of these fights. Muradav 4'7.

Maybe, just so we're clear, this is a wolf dog. This is a wolf pack wager baby. Because I have the exact same exact same subprud plus 550. I'm confident you're about to say all the reasons I am on the same subprop with you. I would love to because I spent more time than I'd like to have met watching through a numerous amount of these guys' fights. All right, go back for Murdov, last fight, GM3. GM3 gets the back in round one, gets it in round two, ends up tapping him in that round

submission lost. You know, he's got power, Muradav. He gets kind of reckless, 17 of his 25 wins or by KO, but sometimes he can get a little while. They can start swinging for the fences, opens opportunities for his opponents. I think that's what's going to happen here. If you go back and watch for all those last two fights, Petrosian, gets the back talking hooks locked in body triangle type stuff all of round one gets it again in round two

go back again to the godsie fight round one round two body triangles in now the one that concerns me i'm talking back time for almost the entire round one thing that concerns me is exactly what you're about to say yeah he's not converting all this back time into submission victories but i'm hoping that he changes that here i hope you know i guess the experiences that he's working with this is the one where he's going to lock it up. Muradav, a little bit of fish out of water on the ground. So I'm going to do it. I'm going to take the shot. Hopefully we're just ending a bunch of bad streaks here. Hopefully we end the Balal losing and hopefully we end the subprop losing as well. Let's see two facts. It's a celebration, right? Let's go. I love it. I have so many bets on

this card, which is probably why I'm going to do poorly where I have fewer bets on the fight night cards. I always win. Let me tell you two facts. You left out. I don't know whether you know them or not, but let me give them to me. Let me. Let me. Let me. add a little context here. First, less important, but four of Murdov's seven career losses by submission, one of those losses was a TKO clavicle injury. So four of six true losses, man's been tapped out. Man gets tapped out. It's a thing that he does. More importantly, I just find this delightful to have realized. I don't need to break down the grappling of Cal Barrio because I can just tell you one fact.

This man went to a decision in a grappling contest with the one and only Jailton Almeida, heavyweight dominant grappler, and Cal Barallo, you know, middleweight dude held his own, lost on escape time in overtime against the Jailton Almeida. Dude, dude can grapple. Dude's got the grapples on him. Yeah, I mean, that warned my heart when I saw that as a,

you know, a diehard Jailton Almeda fan. Yeah. I knew you loved that one. I mean, I'm actually incredibly disappointed that we lost Jailton off of this card. We have to wait until November 5th to see him again. I'm not because heavyweight overs would be pretty tough when Jailton's fighting. That actually is tough. Another one we lost, just a quick, you know, side note.

We were supposed to get Randy to Ritter on Amazon Prime Video 3, one championship. Already are. Yeah, we were supposed to get them and we lost them. I was looking for a nice, like, Mokayev, Jailton, Reiner to Ritter Parlay, now that we're getting one-ons, but sadly, it won't be. I will just say outside of the prop, I also just took Barrio straight at minus 200. This is this one-way traffic, man. Like, he's a good athlete, going to get the takedowns.

Muradov, he loves to get submitted. He loves to get wild on the feet. He's, you know, if Murdov grappled Jail, and Almeda, he's getting tapped out. And that's really all you need to know as far as my breakdown of this fight goes. I don't know that I have much to add other than asking you two fellows, like, what do you think it is that Cal has on the UFC matchmakers? Like what dirt does he have on the matchmakers?

Unclear. First two fights, co-made events, and now he's on like the best card of the year when everyone's going to be watching. What is this guy about? This is the worst spot he's had, which is saying something when you're on 280 and you're fighting a matchup that should favor you to have a stunning performance. Is the neck tattoo and the glasses combo? I don't know.

He's a very handsome man. I was going to say, he's a good-looking Brazilian dude, yeah. I think they just want to push it. He's a card carry member of Team Handsome, but he is definitely not a card-carry member of Team Exciting because none of these fights have been anything so far. Until he gets the neck this fight and you're going to be like, that guy, he's got the chop submission artist is what you're going to be saying after he catches this plus $550 for us.

I agree. Plus 550. That line was so juicy. I was like, how do you not take a shot on that number? That's what I said too, but you know me and my sub props. I like to sniff out the obvious ones that never hit. Oh, actually sharp stuff over here. It's already down to plus 500.

Oh, look at us go. I can't believe we're both on the subprope. I'm so excited by it. I'm very much in on this with D.Fellas. You sold me. Yeah, let's go. Give us a shot. That's all I care.

Just get close. Close. Get to where I'm like really smart. He's going to have back control. It's whether he pounds him out or goes for the, goes for the throw. I think he's going to take the throat. All right. Let's keep it rolling.

We continue on the prelims. It is a light heavyweight bout. We got Vulcan Ozedimir going up against Nikita Crylov. Right now you can get Cryloff for minus 165, the minor. And you can get Vulcan coming back for plus 140. Over under has now they have posted one and a half over minus 150 under plus 120. I say that because I'm on the under two and a half at minus 145. I know what you guys are probably thinking.

Connor, Krilov, three of his last five have gone to a decision. Vulcan, three of his last four have gone to a decision. Let me stop you right there. Just those three decisions are the only time Krilov has ever been to decisions in his entire career. 37 professional fights, 34 of them have gone the under two and a half. Those are pretty good statistics in my book. 27 of those 37 have ended in the first round.

Vulcan, not as juicy there, but 16 of the 24 have gone under the two and a half and then 12 ending in the first round. Just think these are big dudes, light heavyweights, finishing capabilities can be finished. And I think Krylov is just going to come in here, make this a pretty chaotic fight and someone's going to end up getting finished. Shihina, how you feel in here? It's as if I wiped Nikita's last fight entirely out of my mind. Like, I genuinely forgot that he beat Alexander Gustavis.

You just didn't want to feel that feel. In, like, the easiest way possible. Yeah. Like, I saw that on Wikipedia. I covered that fight. I watched that fight, and I cannot remember that fight. I did not remember that fight existed until I just saw it on his record. Yeah, man, I don't know.

This is a tough one because when we talk about chaos, like, right, Charles, over there, chaos, like, all the chaos talk we've had today. These two dudes are about that life. These two, Nikita in particular is chaos incarnate. Like, any, trying to predict what's going to happen in Nikita Krilov fight is just exhaustive process. So for me, I favor Ozedimir on the underdog odds. To me, this feels like a 50-50 fight. So to get him at plus 145, which is what I saw the line at, that feels like the best value on this, but I don't feel strongly one way or another about this. This feels like this could end in five seconds or it could just be the worst 15-minute decision of the night.

Yeah, man, this one, I ultimately don't have a bet down, but I may pull the trigger by fight. And I reached out to our colleague, Alexander K. Lee, a great writer at a great website, mifide.com. Go check it out. Pretty good website. Because he's Oseemir. Osemears's his boy. He had Vulcan hanging just fastidiously in the rankings when everybody else was checking him out. And Ozdemeer comes out, gets the Paul Craig W.

And MMA math does say that Oostomere wins. Be Paul Craig. Krilov, obviously, did not beat Paul Craig. Sounds strategy. Yeah, I wanted to bet Ozdemier at the, underdog gods. I can't get the Yeri fight out of my head, though. And I know Yeri's Yeri, and he's the champion of the world. But Yeri also specializes in a particular brand of chaos. And the closest thing to him is Nikita Krilov. Like, that dude is just going to bring anarchy

with him. And the decider that made me not Badozim here is Krilov's never been like knocked out. He was beaten up by Sal Palali at heavyweight. a million years ago. But he doesn't get dropped. He doesn't really get hurt on the feet all that all. Like he's just, he's insanely durable. And he's going to bring that storm of chaos.

And I don't, I think Oseemir can hang with him for a little bit, but a year he ended up getting him. And I kind of feel like, like, Krilyov's going to get him too. So I'm, I have circled Krilov inside the distance at 140.

I haven't pulled it because I still, I just have so many bets that I kind of think that I should not bet this because there's no reason to, but I want to bet this because it's going to be fun as hell, I think. Yeah. I mean, I'm with you on the chaos parts. Who's going to win? I don't know.

I think either Krilov goes in there and just gets him out of there easy in the first round, or he does what he does and makes the fight chaotic and Vulcan catches him. I mean, Vulcan, he hasn't gotten a knockout in three years, but he still carries that power and he is capable of it. I know you just mentioned Krilov not really getting knocked out by someone, but it's always a possibility anybody can get knocked out anybody can get got it's a fact all right that's all we got on this one all right these next ones uh you know we won't be as as sharp do you have a play on the tukukov almeda or the nirmagamatov godzi fights jit uh i have a play

on two uh tukov almeda i do not have on the on the nirmio margazia fight yeah so i really just wanted to throw it out there you know just kind of a thought process here uh you know sort of inspired by our guy Javier Mendez joining the M.M.A. yesterday. I was thinking maybe like his team parlay. I don't know if I'm going to get around to it. Considered it. Nirmagamatov, Takugov, and Islam pays out at plus 304, one of my books right now. Just kind of wanted to get your, you know, pick your brain, get your thoughts on that. I considered doing it for a gimmick, but then I just had so many other bets. It was unnecessary. Also, shout out to Sean Shelby and company, because like Godziev has fought Baralio or fought Petrosian who also fought foralio.

Like there's a bunch of dudes who have all fought each other all just hang around on this card. So it actually made watching tape really easy. I had to watch like substantially fewer fights. Like, oh, I can see both of these two gentlemen in this particular battle. Godzi is the one that I think might jam up your parley. I just, I remember a medov should like theoretically win that. but he's misstepped in spots where he shouldn't have. And I just don't have any, I don't carry the confidence with him that I do.

And Omar Gadsyev is not like an awful fighter. So there's that. I took a shot on Tukagov, just to throw this out there. This is minus 155 and that number feels low. I get why it's there. But because this Tugov is not only a striker. Like that's what he prefers to do. He wrestles a lot and he's very good at it.

and I think he will just do that to Alameda and have a lot of success. And he can, it's pretty even on the feet with them. Almeida's maybe a touch faster and certainly has more variety. But that I shouldn't have made the bet. I was just, I just couldn't, I couldn't help myself, but fire bet. I considered it. I actually strongly considered it. Just Almeida lost to the parlay killer, Daniel Zell Hoover.

That, that, uh, I would be lying if that didn't, if I said that didn't play a role. It feels like me making a personal attack on them. Sometimes you have to do that. Sometimes you hold grudges. I thought about it. Haven't gotten around to it. I still am considering. Is it A.k.A.

Would it officially be the AKA Parlay? I had it as the coach Habeeb parlay. Because I had that written down as well. That feels like the coach could be parlay, which to me, it might, you know, it's a theme night. It might be a magical night for the whole. I love father's playing idea. You know?

We had the magic with the, Oh, shit. You just sold me on it. Yep. Coach Kabee. parlay i'm in i'm placing it right no it's not coach kabib it's father's plan the plan the plan because father's father's plan i did father's plan was the islam won the belt like then he it solidified him as the coach and this is the culmination of father's plan and that that that right there sold me like i

because i wasn't going to do it but like i don't how do you walk away from that t fopop you can't father's Plano's plan parlay. I'm in. I'm in. I'm in. Now I have bets on every fight on the card. Now I'm wondering. There we go.

I got that up to three plus 320. I don't know where the line is 320. I believe it because both Nirmamatov and Tugov are sub minus 200 and so is Islam. All three of them are tight. Listen, you have a play on Tukov. You're very confident in Islam. All back the confidence here. Remember, I'm looking at Nirmagamatov right now.

I'm looking at how it's spelled. I see a. It does. It does. I see a Magamette in there 50 and eight all time in UFC if you got Magamette in your name. It's true. There's one of the rules is the Magamette name. Also, like, very clearly they want this parley to hit.

Like, these are, they didn't make this fight card and go to Abu Dhabi with these guys for them to lose. Like, it's clearly the book. God, that's great stuff from you, Sheen. I can't even, the father's plan parlay. I mean, you have paid dividends. Listen to the dogs barking. And I love it. I love it. I mean, they're hyped about it too. You got a lot of dollars barking on this card, baby.

I will also, we can kill all this. Apologies. Apologies on that. It happens. I will just round it out by saying. I have three dollars in a baby in my house. It's chaos. You have a lot of things. There is, I don't have a line down yet. I am a little bit interested just to see what Tuka Gavov by split decision looks like. Because he's gone to several of those in his career. And I always just want to take a, just take an eyeball and see how I feel about it. Because I could also see this being a tighter than we would want it for the father's plan parley.

But Father's plan, man, I'm in. Just to even throw in more support on the Father's Plan parley, before we even started this fight, I was with you, Jed. I had to two golf minus 155. I also had to two golf decision plus 165. Feels like if he wins, that's how it's probably going to win. Zubai, you talk about Benilandar, you should be one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC.

I wouldn't put Zubaira there at all by any means. But when you look at his level of competition, it is very clear that he is fighting extraordinarily good fighters for the most part in his career. And he's beating all of the fighters who are not at that extraordinarily good level, right? And even the ones he's losing, not a Moikano. Exactly. And both of those, Moikano and Duado, those are both split decisions. I'm super high on Laronne Murphy.

I think Lerone Murphy is going to make a big impact in that division whenever he can make a sustainable run. and be pretty active. Otherwise, it's just W's up and down the board for Zubaira. I feel like this is another case that we just haven't seen him very often and for a long time we haven't seen him. He's been on such a long layoff. I kind of really like those decision odds at plus 165. It's not bad.

I'm starting to think I'm going to add Zubaira as a single. You guys have sold me this much. I need to bring us back to the father's plan parlay because I don't think this matters, but I do want to put this out there to make sure we establish. shit. Those three in the father's plan parlay, rock solid. Is there any inclination, any thought? Bala Muhammad spent some time with the boys, with, with, with, with Habib and companies. That's not, you know, his team, but he's been there, been working with him, certainly in Abu Dhabi. Does he have to make an appearance, or is he just clearly not part of father's plan?

He's not part of. How could he be part of father's plan? That feels like you're bastardizing the idea of the father's plan part of. I'm just, no, I'm just making sure. that we established it because I don't want him in my parlay. Thank you. Thank you because I don't want him in my parlay either. Yeah. I have lost a lot of money making bets against Belal Mohammed and I continue to do so. And I have no plans of changing that anytime soon.

All right. That's the Fahmahue on Saturday, you know? Oh, yeah. No, I'd have to be a T-shirt. Get the fight kit. Yeah. Get the Balal fight kit. I don't have to go to one at the same time if I'm going to do that.

Maybe they have a 50-50. or something that I can do two at once. All right, those are those fights. That's the father's plan parlay. We're all locked in now. I cannot wait to cash that. It's going to be absolutely legendary if it does. We got three fights left to get through.

This is probably going to break the record for the longest episode, but that's what happens when you have Mr. Shehina, I'll shoddy on, and that's what happens when you have a card like UFC 280. Next up, it is a middleweight bout, Armin Petrosian going up against AJ Dobson. Right now, Petrosian can be had for minus 205. Dobson coming back. plus 175.

The over under is set at two and a half under minus two, ten over plus 165. I don't have anything on this fight. The only thing I considered was a violence prop. I could see this one ending early. Oh, you got over or you got the over under at two and a half, eh? Because I have the over under at one and a half and I'm on the under, baby. Under one and a half. That's my bet here.

Let's go. AJ Dobson is not a man who likes to, likes to, likes to get paid by the hour. He gets paid by the minute. He's in there to get the job done quickly or not. Only one fight of his has gotten out of the first round. It was his most recent one against Jacob Malkoon. Jacob Malkun just tackled him and sat on him for 15 minutes, and that's what happened.

And that's not what all in Petrosian is about. He's about chucking them mitts. AJ Dobson, he wants to come out and throw hands. And this is less about Petrosian and mostly just that the way Dobson fights, if you're not going to tackle him, it's going to be over. Somebody's getting knocked out early on. So one and a half I took the under. I would feel really great about taking under two and a half, honestly.

What about under two and a half at minus 200? Yeah, honestly, that's better. That is a better bet just because you get a little bit extra room. And it's minus 110 for the under one and a half. So you're still on the negative side of the dollars. All right. I'm making that right now. Look at me and just adding all these bets because of you guys.

But yeah, I took minus one, minus 110 for under one and a half. and feel really good that Dobson is going to force the issue in this fight. Sick. Glad you convinced me on that. Didn't take much convincing. Last bet I convinced you on was a winner. It was a plus 3.30 winner.

This one isn't as tasty, but still a winner. Winners are winners, baby. All right, speaking of winners, the next fight we go to is a prelim bout taking place in the men's flyweight division. Do I need to say anything else? No, we could move on. We get in the podcast right now. That's all that needs to be said. You know what's going to happen here. Mohamed Makayev going up against Malcolm

Gordon. Right now you can get Makaiyev for minus 850, Gordon plus 600, yada, yada, yada. I would say who cares, but I care because I did parlay, Macaev up. But the more important part is the over under is set at one and a half over minus 125 under minus 105. Smash it, baby. So all I can do is smash it. There's nothing to be said. There's nothing to be said. It's a winning bet every time out. I also Pauliade Mikhail and I took Makaiv inside the distance at minus 200 because Mikhail is going to win and this is going to go under one and a half. So obviously, Mikhail is winning inside the distance. So it's just very simple math at that point. I won't break this fight down beyond saying Mohamed McAyev is going to hold the belt in the not too distant future.

There's a real good chance to hold two belts before his career is all said and done. And Malcolm Gordon has literally never stopped a take down in his UFC career. Three people have – or three shots have been had on him. All three of them got him down. McAev will add a fourth and he won't need to add a fifth. It's one and done going to finish this. one to wrap real quick. And if Malcolm Gordon wins, that's going to hurt my bank account more than a Charles Olivaero win is going to hurt my pride. I love it. Because I'm pretty exposed on

Mackayette at this point. I love that you are. If people are still doubting us because I'm with you, you know, minus 850 is a draft king sports worker right now. Every other book across the board, he's minus a thousand or up. Yeah. If you really, if you want to be like, these guys are bullshit, you know, flyweight unders, that's just a dumb bet. You know, they're only eight and no so far. Please, please keep thinking it's a dumb bet so we get better odds. If you were really long to convince you, the guy that he's fighting, the guy that the minus a thousand and up at almost every sports book right now, Muhammad Mahayev, the guy that

he's fighting in Malcolm Gordon, 10 of his last 11 fights have gone under one and a half, win or lose, three of them, or loss is one of those he got submitted in, two of them, he got knocked out. Nine of those 10 ended in the first round as well. So you got a minus a thousand going up against the guy that, cannot stand he absolutely hates going over one and a half uh i like it i love it i played it at plus 105 uh and you're kind of talking me into an inside the distance bet on uh mahomet macaab as well might i add a little more juice to the flyweight under proposal i would love nothing more

a little something to get this into plus odds maybe i don't know just throwing it out there Mahama Mahayev TKO Kho plus 280 That doesn't feel bad for a little splash Mahamai of submission plus 160 That doesn't feel bad for a little splash Yeah that's a tough little splash A little dash Submission feels better because three of golden

Are you going to pick it right? Are you going to choose it right? That's always the tough thing It's tough because Makaya really does mix up his TKOs versus submission So that's why I just took the inside the distance Just because I didn't want to play the game of pick of picking spot effort just you're going to get the job done before the judges are necessary an absolute beauty i cannot wait for that one i'm with you dude i mean until otherwise shown other until i see something

otherwise than what i've seen from mohammaikaev the plan is to just keep waiting until he holds the bell i mean he's forever dude is an absolute beast hopefully as he moves into the top 15 we'll get some much more playable lines rather than him just unlikely honestly he's just always going to be a big favorite i actually agree with you uh all right the last last battle. You don't do it every time. We don't do it every time, but for 280 for for Shaheen-Oshadhi. We talked about every fight on this card. Last one to get into it's a women's bantamweight bout. Lina Lansberg is taking on Carol Rosa. Right now you can get Hosa for minus 295

Lansberg plus 245. Over under set at two and a half over minus 285 under plus two 25. I'm on Carol Hosa money line. Took her at minus 230. Landsberg's 40. She hasn't want to fight in three years. She landed one significant strike in 15 minutes against Sarah McMahon. I just, I don't think Carol Rosa is a world beater. Is that a real step? One significant strike over 15 minutes against Sarah McMahon. I don't think Carolosa is a world beater, but I do think she's Alina Lanceburg beater. Shaheen, I have things I need to say about this fight.

So why don't we turn to you before we get into all my, all my beers? You didn't sound happy with the. I'm not. I'm not. Either the Lena Landsberg slander or the Carol Hosa support. I'll explain it in a moment, but I want to see where Shaheen is before I... I'm looking forward to this. You won't have to wait long.

Unlike you, I have no thoughts about this fight. This fight is representative to me of how bad this division really is, so I will turn the microphone over to you, Jen. So here's the problem, buddy. Everything in my brain says that Carol Hosa is going to win this fight, that Carol Hosa by decision at minus 110 is just one of the safest and best bets on the card. But as I was looking over this fight card, I was trying to find a Costanza, to find the Costanza to test.

And many people would have said, Muhammad Mikhail is the Costanza, but he's not. And there's a very specific reason that the McAyev fight isn't. I can see how Makaiv loses because he's still only 23. he's still getting his legs under him. You can see a prospect loss for a guy like that

in a situation like this. Like that is inexplicable thing to happen. It would not all the way stun me. But when I looked at this fight, the note I have written down is, how is this line this low? It is Lansberg is 40. She's not good at anything.

Like she's just, she's not a good strike. She's not a good wrestler. Rosa isn't a great fighter. but she's 27. She's hitting athletic. She's better athlete. Probably better in all facets.

I do not understand how this is minus 305. And so I want to bet Rosa by decision. I want to put Rosa in a parley. But that's the whole purpose of the Costanza. The whole purpose of the Costanza is that I can't. I cannot fabricate a way that this bet won't win. And so I must be wrong. And so I don't feel good.

about it. And the Costanza theory may immediately die, a horrid, horrid death right now. But I am nothing if not a man of science. I'm going to test out my theories. I'm going to test them and see how they go. We riding on a heater from last week with the over one and a half in the Totorovich fight, we took the shot on 40 old Lanzberg, plus 255. I can't believe that you did that. At least it's the main car. It opens the card. I'm going to know immediately. if Costanza's real or not. This is the test, and we're putting it to it. Here's the good news for you.

Last week, the Costanza theory, you put it to the test on the Todorovic Jordan Wright over one and a half. I was on the under one and a half. Once again, your Costanza theory is up to the test on Lena Landsberg. I am on Carole Hosa. Once again, I got a good line, just like I did on Tordorovic right. Line moving really means nothing.

If it's a loser, it doesn't matter at all. Is history said to repeat itself? I hope not, but God, will it be one of the funniest thing ever if Lino-Lansberg comes out of here and gets a dog? It will be the second funniest thing that's ever happened to me in this sport after Giuliana Pena, knocking out of Mendeninus, me calling it. That will remain the best thing that's ever happened to me. But if Costanza wins this test, man, I'm going to ride this pony forever because it's awesome. But yeah, like I said, everything in my head says that you're right. I think my brain says Roos by decision is one of the best bets on the entire card.

And yet, I'm on Lina Landsberg plus 255. God, I can't wait for this. Look at that. All right. So that's it. It's going to be a journey. That is UFC 280. 14 fights up, 14 fights down.

I have entirely too much. action a winning week is a miracle at this point i mean i'm talking i can't what do i have 11 singles and four parles like oh my god yeah i have so much action this is going to be one of those ones where you're just looking around just firing off everything you just got to check the accounts uh when everything's over it's going to be madness it's going to be magical it's going to be beautiful i cannot wait 13 parles holy hell you have 16 singles down well there's not a fifth bet some they are our fight I have 15 bets and then one that I'm the cry love bet that I'm probably going to take with the with the father's father's father's play parley and petrosian dobson under that you

convince me on to that got me on every single fight we're on every I'm on every fight because of the father's playing in the guy we're recreating 276 or not I don't think that worked out well for me if I recall it actually did work out well I had a pretty good week at international fight week but that's that that's UFC 280 the super Super Bowl of MMA. If you made it this long, longest episode of No Bet's Bar in history, Shane, very busy man. Thank you so much for staying this long with us. Absolutely. Are you kidding me? This was a blast. I cannot wait for this father's plan parlay to hit in all of us. Just the best part of the show. That's the that's the money

parley. That's it. The fact that you brought that to us is yeah, that's a great addition. Father's plan. Why is the best in the business? And we get we get a flyweight under. We get Costanza. Father's plan. Everything's coming up bus it's going to be delightful i've already had a fantastic day after leg two of father's plant hits with takugov and we'll only be five fights into the card and we'll already have constance a theory tested flyweight under down halfway over halfway in the father's in the world i know i almost want to order a switzerland i might be the only lanzburg fan in the world i want i want to order you a swedish flag start the day with some

Swedish meatballs, maybe go to IKEA. Go get some Swedish fish. Just march on those at 10 a.m. Oh, my God. This has to happen. All right. That's 280. Saturday.

Big day. Big, big day. Cannot wait for it. Shaheen, any last things you'd like to say before we let you go? Let's make that money, boys. That's all I need to do here. Let's make that money. UFC 280.

Enjoy the card. Just soak it in. Just soak it in. These pay-per-views. You just got to enjoy them while they're here. cannot wait for it Saturday day cards in the U.S. Back next week, Arnold Allen fights, something going on at the Apex. We'll talk then.

Love you guys. To the Vox Media Podcast Network.