MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred | How Many Underdogs Can Pull Off Upsets at UFC Des Moines?

Episode Date: April 30, 2025

The UFC is heading to Iowa for the first time in nearly 25 years. This Saturday, UFC Des Moines marks the UFC's first trip to the Hawkeye State since UFC 26 in 2000 as the promotion brings a stacked Fight Night card to the capitol city, headlined by a bantamweight matchup between Cory Sandhagen and Deiveson Figueiredo. So, of course, No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined by The Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into the UFC Des Moines card. Topics discussed include why "Figgy Smalls" is such a big underdog in the main event, how Jed's boy Reiner de Ridder might fair against super-prospect Bo Nickal, what other underdogs are live bets for this week, the latest discussion on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 126 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: ⁠@JedKMeshew⁠ Follow Billy Ward: ⁠@PsychoWard586⁠ ⁠Subscribe to MMA Fighting⁠ ⁠Check out our full video catalog⁠ ⁠Like MMA Fighting on Facebook⁠ ⁠Follow on Twitter⁠ Read More: ⁠http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

When I got a great deal on a great gift at Winners, I started wondering, could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. At just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw for my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss?

Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners, find fabulous for less. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. My name is Jedmishu, VemmaFind.com.

You probably know that if you're listening to this. And joining me this week as, you know, I was thinking, it's like UFC, Iowa, UFC, Des Moines. I really hope they're not trying to make this be called U.S.Demoyne because it should just be UFC. Iowa, frankly. It's like, you know, I was. basically a suburb of, uh, of Michigan. And so let's bring our old friend Billy Ward back to action.

Billy of the Action Network. How you doing this week, man? I'm good. I'm concerned that the actual like hashtag the UFC account is using is UFC Des Moines because I've had to type it a few times this week. And I'm not happy about that either. I was really hoping for Iowa. There's just no reason to make it UFC Des Moines.

Like are you guys holding an event in Iowa City anytime? Just make it. UFC Iowa. It's fine. It's totally reasonable to do that. So I don't know. It's very nonsensical, but whatever, I guess. Before we get into this week's call, which is actually pretty good, Billy, a couple of housekeeping notes. First, UFC Kansas City. That was fun, eh? We had a good time, or at least I certainly did. How about you? How, uh, and how's your climb going, by the way, Billy. How's that, how's that rocking these days? Well, the climb continued, and I won my bet on Ian Gary in rounds four, five, or by

decision, and nothing else. So I would have had more fun had I made some money, but it was an enjoyable card overall, and the climb is now 10 steps deep. So it's getting... Oh, look at you go. It's getting serious, and this is the first week where I had one that I was like, on step three, I would confidently take this on step 10. I'm starting to get a little nervous. So I feel the stress that you've gone through already. Oh, yeah, man. Every step after, once you get to double digits, it really is different. Because you're just like, shit.

Like, this isn't easy to actually do. Even if all of the bets seem simple. At some point, someone's going to slip on a banana peel. So welcome, welcome to the Thunderdow, Bill. You're going to have a great time moving forward. We talked about it, obviously not on air last week. But, like, I was so stressed last week about it that I took, what was obviously a win, like, I won, by the way.

We're 16 down now, over halfway, officially at this point. But I was like, I don't know. Maybe Anthony Smith pulls some voodoo out. I'll just take fight. I'll just take fight doesn't go to decision because the odds are the same. And obviously, that was a huge. I overthought it. I didn't because it was still a great bet.

But it was obviously outlandish to be as keyed up about things as I was last week. So welcome to that. You're going to have a great amount of time. What was your climb bet last week? I had Zhang Min Yang. So we were thinking the same thing. I mean, it was kind of the same bet, right? Like, it wasn't getting finished super quick.

So we're on the same page. Again, easier at step 10 to do that. Although I do have a slight question for you because everyone else who has ever bet on MMA has always said the one rule is you don't bet on retiring fighters. and you are the only person I've ever say you don't bet against retiring fighters which is a weird take why why would you do it you never know it's the only time that's ever failed with robie law there is no tomorrow for them billy have you not seen the replacements there is no tomorrow for them and that makes them very dangerous people i don't want to be i again at this stage you're going to find billy at this stage every single bet i make for the climb the dominant thought is how dumb will I feel when it loses?

Because I'm anticipating the loss now around every corner. How stupid will I be? Which is going to bring us to some topics of conversation this week, Bill, because I don't have a climb bet down. There are few that I'm kind of looking at. But we'll see. But let's get into this week very quickly. I did win half a unit last week.

so we are slowly but surely digging out of the colossal hole. I dug myself. I'm still down about nine units on the year. So not great, Bob. But we're working our way positive. We've had winning weeks for the last few. I can't imagine I'm going to have a winning week this week. Just looking at my slate, though.

So let's dive in, Billy, because UFC, Iowa, I'm just going to call it UFC, Iowa. They can't make me call it Des Moines. Pretty decent card. back-to-back good cards as we head into UFC 315. And this week's card is headlined by a bantamweight banger, Corey Sandhagen, taking on Davison, Figurato, Sandhagen, a substantial betting favorite, minus 500. The comeback on Figgy Smalls plus 380, Sandhagen.

Coming off, the unanimous decision lost to Umar, Normaqa Medov back in August, what was functionally a title, Eliminator bout, and Figgie, three and one since moving up to Bantamweight, but also coming off unanimous decision loss, his against Piotr-Yan back in November. And what we kind of thought might be a title eliminator about until they were just like, ah, screw it.

Sean O'Malley can get right back in there and challenge for the belt again. So, Sandhagen, huge favorite bill, minus 500. That's right along the lines for any, you know, enterprising young individuals doing their own climb.

Do you think that's a good climb bet this week? I do not. I don't understand this line at all, and I was excited to come on here and have you explain to me why it's that wide. Are we downgrading Davis and Figaredo for losing to Poderian?

The same Potor Yan that also beat Sandhagen when they fought. Like, I don't understand the logic there at all. This is only lost at Phantom White, and it's a guy that Corey Sandhagen has also lost to, so that doesn't make a lot of sense. And they have, if you look back

through the last handful of fights, They fought basically the same dudes with basically the same results. And yet Sandhagen is a five to one favorite. Absolutely would not climb there. And I have gone so far. I put a quarter unit on Figgy at plus 370 early in the week. I think the angle on Sanhagen is probably live or like late props, like the four or five decision. I think that's when he probably has the most success.

But I don't get the width of this line. And maybe you can tell me what I'm missing. So I discovered this line was as big. as big as it is, Billy, because a listener hit me up on social media. Sorry that I do not have your name at hand, like several days ago and was like, am I crazy? What the hell is going on right now? And I looked at it was like, hmm, that is pretty big there, certainly bigger than I would

have anticipated. I then sort of like actually watched and broke down sort of how I think. the fight will go. The line is still probably too big. I do think this matchup lines up very nicely for Corey Sandhagen. He's just, he's going to be gigantic compared to Figgie Smalls in there. He's got like seven inches of height or something astronomically ludicrous on him.

Has the cardio edge as well, you know, has never been knocked out. It doesn't really get jawed in the way that like maybe Figgie could tag him early. And the Umar fight. showed incredibly improved wrestling defense, and that's sort of Figgie's back pocket as he can go to the grappling if he needs to. I do think that this lines up pretty well for Corey Sankan to just have a good day on Saturday. Still don't feel like the odds are good.

There's no chance in hell I'm climbing with this. Let's let us just be extremely clear about this. Don't really want to even bet Figgie just because I kind of, this feels very much like a Corey Sanagan win for me. which then sort of brought me to that if I were climbing, the over two and a half I'm a little interested in as a climb bet this week. I don't have any action on this fight at this point. And I'm not even sure I want to do that because I don't know, Figgies old, Corey San Diego's tall, throws one knee up the middle, maybe Figgie gets cracked,

and that's 15, I'm sorry, 16 successful steps down the road. Talk to me about the over two and a half. How good should I feel about that as a climb opportunity? It's tricky because it's almost like the inverse of what we saw with Smith and Zhang last week, where if you told me that this fight is definitely going over two and a half, I would probably put a climb bet on Sandhagen. I just don't see Figurato winning minutes down the stretch. I think if he wins, it's going to be with early power.

So I guess, and like this is crazy, please don't do this on step 16. But if you're starting a climb right now at step one, parlay the over two and a half of Sanhagen, that would make some sense to me. I think those are pretty heavily correlated. I would stay away from this one for those of us, you know, up in the double digits on the climb. The two and a half, probably I like better than San Hagen, but I'm still not. I still wouldn't take it for a climb. If I could have gotten the one and a half at a reasonable price, that would be climbing.

Yeah. One and a half is like minus a thousand at the offshores right now. So there's no way that that's going to be an available. option for me in a reasonable thing. So I think I am mostly just not going to bet the main event, which is a bummer because I think I've bet every main event this year. This will be the first one. But I do sort of think, I feel you, feels dogger pass with the line, but I think I'm

just passing as a result of it. And I will say part of the thesis on holding that figurato tickets, I think he'll probably have some big moments early on and you can arbitrage with Sandhagen at some point if you're live betting. And even if the line doesn't get better on Sanhagen, if you get to the second or third round, you can probably pretty confidently bet on Sanhagen and cover your investment.

So I'm not living and dying with this figurato bet, but it shouldn't be this wide. Yeah, I'm Figgy's not going to win like a fourth round TKO out of nowhere. He's winning early or he's, I mean, you know, we don't want to say he can't win a decision, but if he's going to win a decision, you know that that's coming because he's won the first three rounds,

It's not, ah, you clean, swept the back three. It's not really how that fight's going to go. So a boring main event analysis from myself. Let's have a little more fun as we get to the co-main event on Saturday, though, Billy. And it's a middleweight contest with one of my guys, Riner to Ritter, aka Henneye to Hitter, aka RDR, aka the Dutch Knight, taking on Bo Nickel, MMA's greatest prospect. nickel pretty sizable favorite minus 325 de chrder plus 260 on the comeback rdr are three-fight winning streak two of those in the UFC submitting both gerald meershardt and kevin holland and i just tapped kevin holland back in january and bo-nickle four and o in the ufcccc in the

unanimous decision win over paul craig in november was the last time we saw him uh which is probably bad frankly bo nickle needs to fight more often. I don't know what they're doing to manage his goddamn career, these bozos, but saying that, this seems like pretty good career management, certainly the sort of matchup you you to anticipate for a guy like Bo Nickel. How do you feel about these odds, Bill? I am also on the underdog here, but I'm very excited about this one. For those that don't know, I always do the co-main event, vet and preview over at the Action Network, so I will have more in-depth thoughts later. I actually went back and watched all of Paul Craig versus Bo Nickel,

which would not recommend. Why would you do that to yourself? Because thank you. You set me up. I wanted to see if I thought Bo Nickel would have a striking advantage or disadvantage against RDR. And I think if this one stays on the feet, RDR probably wins it. Like you put big gloves on these guys and let him go. I would probably make RDR a favorite. Like he doesn't quite have the power. And his striking is also sloppy, but it's not as ugly looking as bows. And then his bow going to want to take him down or is this going to be the Paul Craig fight 2.0 where he's so scared of the submission threats, he tries to just hold him along the fence and make it a boring fight. So I see a path for RDR. It's not the easiest because he's given up a lot of

athleticism here, a little bit of youth, a lot of speed. But the odds is that, I think you have to bet him. The only thing I'll say is everyone's going to bet Bo Neckle on like Friday and Saturday. The casuals are going to pour in on that. So keep your money in your pocket on RDR until late, because that's when we're going to get the best line. I would be pretty shocked if he doesn't hit plus 300 at some point. A lot of parlay money is going to comment on Bo Nickel as this event gets closer. For people who know my work, they understand what I'm doing here. I'm not sure there has been a bigger proponent of RDR than myself in the entire MMA media space.

I find him deeply fun because he's deeply silly. Like he's just a very, he's like, Damian Maya, if you made Damia Maya gangly and less good, it's, he's so quirky and unique and I loved him in one being such a weirdo and adopted him and have supported him. Even when he fought my other one boy, Anatoly Malikin, twice in just the worst fights you've ever seen. I can't believe they booked that fight twice. I will support him forever. I think that this matchup is tailor-made for Bo Neckle to win, but I got to be honest,

I am starting to have serious concerns about Bo-Nichael as a prospect. Like, not that he won't be good or whatever, but Bo-Nichael is a generational prospect coming in. This is a guy who very likely, likely is maybe a stretch, had a very good opportunity to make the Olympic team if he had stuck with wrestling. He just happened to come into the freestyle circuit

at a time when he was behind two of the best American wrestlers of the past 30 years. But if he kind of stuck his nose down, there's a real good chance he could have made a world team, sort of been a successful wrestler, and said, nope, made one pass at it, came up just a little short going to MMA. And his career has just been weird. Like he doesn't fight. He should be fighting every other week, basically, against anybody just to get tuneups to learn how to fist fight.

And instead, Cody Brundage, I know he ends up beating Cody Brundage. Cody Brundage, that fight was harder than it should be for a guy who should be the caliber of Bo Nicol. And then Paul Craig, everybody anticipated he would obliterate Paul Craig. I got a lot of respect for Paul Craig as a fighter. Bo Nichols just didn't look comfortable in that fight for most of it. Because he's not because he's fought eight times because he fights once a year, which is insane.

So RDR, obviously a huge advantage. the experience. I don't, he's probably not going to win, but I'm, I'm going to support my boys forever. He's my guy. I'm going to be backing him. But like you, I certainly think this price is going to get better. So if I'm going to back him, I'm going to wait until Friday after weigh-ins when I suspect the money will peak and we can get him at plus 300.

Yeah. And to expand on your point, like, Bo Nickle has looked progressively less impressive, which each of his appearances in the U.S. which is not a great sign. Some of it is the level of competition, and I made a further mistake. I watched the Paul Craig fight with the commentary on, and they were really trying to sell you

on the generational talent that was Paul Craig. But, like, it was Paul Craig. They didn't have him in there against Prime Anderson Silva, and he looked like that. And RDR is every bit as dangerous with his submissions as Paul Craig. So if you're not going to go to the ground with Paul Craig, are you going to do it with RDR?

And if you don't go to the ground, then what are we doing? And there's a high potential this fight is a very disappointing ugly kickboxing match. But I think that's probably for the best for RDR. Yeah. And that's the thing. Like, Bo Nichols should just be comfortable taking anybody down. Like, do I already are as good grapplers.

Is he really going to tap Bo Nicol off his back? Probably not. But he, Beau, it seems like Bo has a very rudimentary tactical understanding of, ah, I will just win the striking, but he is not good at striking. He can hit people hard, and if you are Val Woodburn, he might club you, but he's not good. Granted, neither is already are. So, like, he might still just be able to win doing that. But I hope this is a transformation performance.

If Bo Nickel's going to win, Opie comes out and looks like a world beater, because otherwise, and be like, well, I don't know what we're doing, but we're not optimizing Bo Nickel, because Bo Nickel should be an incredible fit. fighter at this point. Or we have a title contender in RDR. Like there's no losing from this booking, I will say. It's true. Either Bo Nickel continues to climb the ladder or we go, yeah, let's give another one guy a shot at the title. Let's see what happens.

Like, that'd be fun. We should already be giving RDR. We should already be giving RDR. I can't tell you how much I would love my two middleweight sons RDR on Drickus DuPless fighting for the belt. It would be my favorite fight that could be booked right now other than DDP versus Yuri, which is now that we have had Eddie Hall

Marius Pugnowski, DDP versus Yuri is the best fight they can be made in fist fighting. Can I derail you briefly? Oh, sure. I listened to much of your content this weekend pushing the idea of Eddie Hall versus Francis Nagano. And I hear you, that's not a bad idea.

You know, it's a better idea? We have Rougug right there in one. Eddie Hall versus Rougueg, that's like actually a compelling fight. So that's also a... fun. But I just... Heavyweight championship

of something at this point. I don't know why. Also, Rougug robbed Anatoly Malikin, by the way. Don't care. It doesn't matter. Look, if we have to do that,

yeah, but I just don't think Eddie Hall would say yes to fighting Rougug. He doesn't know... But he said yes to Nogano? He doesn't know who Rougou is. He doesn't know who Rougoub is. He's just be like, yeah, sure.

I'll try and fight that dude. That seems cool. But the Nganu thing, just not going to happen based on the still unsubstantiated reports, but seem like they might have some validity to them. I don't want to speculate too much about what's going on with Francis and Ghanu, but not great headlines for him this week. So Eddie Hall versus, I don't know, three people this time.

Maybe instead of the two people, three people can get the job done. Or just Roo Group. It'd be so fun. Like, they're doing the same thing. They find the same way. It would be very silly. and I'm super in if they do that. In a ring, too.

Like, people would lose their lives in the front row. It'd be awesome. Yes, they would 100% go through the road. I'd be so happy to see that. Moving on to the future bout of the evening. Back to Iowa. The feature bout of the evening, because when you think Iowa,

you think Santiago Ponsonibio and Daniel Rodriguez. Also, this Iowa card, incredible. We've got two Peruvians and two Canadians. They're going to Canada next week, and they put two Canadians on this card. I don't know what the hell's going on here,

but Santiago Ponsinibio, Daniel Rodriguez, in a welterweight contest, Ponzi scheme, minus 125, Danny Rod, plus 105. Ponsonibio,

three and five, over his past eight, uh, is coming off a win, though. TK over Carlston Harris in January. D. Rod was on a three-fight losing streak, but took a split decision win over Alex Morono in October.

Both men are past their primes, Billy, and is it Daniel Rodriguez and underdog odds? No, I'm better at Santiago Ponzo Nebio, and this one's kind of easy for me. They are both two and three over their last five. Two of those three wins for D-Rod were split decisions, so both of his wins. He has not won a non-split decision since he beat the ghost of Kevin Lee in 2021. Same record for Santiago Ponsonibio, two of his losses were split decisions, and he's got knockouts in his two wins.

they are weirdly similar fighters, except Santiago, Ponziadio has much more power. And if we're judging based on damage and who's closest to finishing the fight, pretty clearly going to be Ponziabio. This line has moved a little bit. I grabbed it slightly better, but I'd still take the minus 120, minus 125. I think he's going to look minus 180, minus 190. They're going to land about the same amount of strikes, but Ponziabio throws them all real hard. And we also just have like a better camp.

One guy comes from ATT, another guy. I think he still trains, Drods still trains at a 10th planet gym, which probably like, I don't know why we're doing that in MMA. Like if you're going to compete in Jiu-Jitsu great, but you could probably do better. So, yeah, you know, we got the camp, we got the game plan, we got the power. They're the same age. They have the same record over the last five-ish years, but Ponzo Nebio has some advantages. Yeah, I'm actually bet Danny Rodriguez at underdog odds.

I basically think this fights a coin flip. And I think D-Rod is the better boxer. And honestly, the biggest deciding factor, I would slightly favor Danny Rodriguez. He just has a better chin. Historically, has had a better chin. I think he still takes damage better than Ponsonibio does. They're not going to grapple. They're just going to hit each other.

Ponzi will kick him some too, but D-Rod will punch him. And I think D-Rod can take the shots coming back at him. And I'm not as certain about Ponsonibio. So the, I guess second because of RDR whenever I do bet him. I got a lot of underdog action this week, and this is one of them. So that's why I'm going to lose money this week. Almost all of my bets are underdog bets. There's just no chance they pay off.

Moving on to a bantamweight contest, Montel Jackson taking on Daniel Marcos, one of the Peruvians I mentioned, fighting in Iowa, Iowa, the Peru of the Midwest. That's what they call it. Montel Jackson minus 200. Daniel Marcos plus 165. Back-to-back Daniels in our fight breakdowns. Uh-oh. This is a pretty, I'm not doing it. There are a lot of really fun parleyes.

There's a Daniel parley. There's Canada parley. There's Peru parley. There's Rodriguez parlay. Not doing any of them. Could have a lot of fun with all those. But this is a sneaky good fight. Montel Jackson on a five-fight winning street coming off the knockout of

Desmond Blackshear in July, 18 seconds. just blew his doors off. And Marcos, four and O in the UFC with one no contest, coming off a split decision win over Adrian Yanyas, that I think he probably should have just won straight up. But so it goes. Really good matchup here in the Bannonweight Division. How we feel in Billy?

Yeah, I'm interested in it. I'm also concerned with how infrequently Montel Jackson fights, you're saying that about Bo Nicol, but this is like our yearly Montel Jackson appearance. Once a year. And he's not old exactly, but he's 33, and he's not really like a name in the division. So I feel like you kind of got to get going. And also he's real big for phantom weight at 510.

I worry how that ages. Like that just seems hard to be 135 pounds and 510 well into your 30s. I'm a little concerned about that. I like the power from him. And I think this is going to be like kind of a brawl for much of the time because Marcos will get in there and mix it up. I haven't bet this officially yet, but I'm looking at some unders or maybe fight doesn't go to a decision. The under two and a half is plus 165, so it doesn't go to a decision probably also plus money. I think we could see a bantamite finish here.

I think the weight cut for Jackson as he gets older is going to take some durability away, but he also has a ton of power. So see some risk both ways. Had to pick a side, I'd probably lean Marcos, but I'm going to watch some more tape before I settle on that too much. So I did pick that side. I leaned to Marcos. I got him a plus 170 on the action. I think this fight is probably a coin flip at this point in time. I have all the same concerns you do about Montau Jackson.

Also, like, his win streak is solid, but it's not like everybody, Daniel Marcos beat is good. Like, they're all good fighters, right? Like, he beat John Castaneda, good fighter. Adrian Yanis, good fighter. Davy Grant, good fighter. Whereas, you know, I don't. intend the disrespect, but I can't say no disrespect.

It's like, Ronnie Yaya was a good fighter a decade ago. You know, like, JP buys is, JP buys. Like, these are not, it's not really the same level of opposition. Dan Marcos has shown a good chin, really good defensive wrestling, if Monta Jackson wanted to mix things up. I just think this fights a coin flip and you're getting a good price at plus 170 on Marcos. So yet another underdog bet for me. currently, I have all underdog action, uh, and I won't bury the lead here.

That's, we're going to continue that not for this next fight, but very, very soon. Our next fight, though, is still in the Bannonweight Division. Cameron Smotherman taking on Surhey City, City minus one three five, Smotherman plus 115. Smotherland won his UFC debut. You didn't have a decision went over Jake Hadley back in October, whereas city has had the weirdest UFC career. He won on Contender Series, but

it was garbage. He should not have beaten Ramon Tavares on Contender Series. So the UFC is just like, F it, we'll sign you both and do the rematch in the UFC. Tavares had another fight on Contender Series before they signed him. They gave him a round of him.

Oh, there you go. I don't remember that. I just remember that this happened. And then they fought in the UFC, and this time he loses to Tavares by split decision, but that was a garbage split decision that he lost to DeVorez in the UFC. And then he wins a split decision over Garrett Armfield. But that was a garbage decision. So the last three times Surrey City has fought,

the judges have gotten it wrong, wrong. Twice in his favor, I guess, though. So good for him in that regard. Weird fight going on here. How do you see it, Bill? Yeah, I have the same concerns. I guess the one thing I'm, It's hard to say with Smotherman because he lost on the Contender Series in

23, like pretty quick. We didn't really get to see what he was doing. But it does seem like he's probably made some improvements. He's the younger fighter here. You know, he took some time away. It's only like a year younger. I thought Citi was older than that. But, yeah, you know, like we're kind of trying to project in the future a little bit here

for Cameron Smotherman. I think he's far more athletic and has far more tools. And I can't bet on a guy on Sir Haydie who got dropped by Ramon Tavar. And taken down four times by Garrett Armfield is also something that happened, although he's done that to other people. So long story short, I will be on Smotherman. I have not bet it yet. I'm not sure the best way to do it, whether it's just straight up or maybe by knockout, because you get dropped by Ramon Tavares, I'm going to have some concerns about your chin. So that might be the angle I go, but I'm still kicking that around.

But some form of smotherman investment for sure. I look forward to the next time we speak and you being like, well, Surrey City won a bad. split decision that he didn't deserve and I lost my bet. I have no interest in betting this. The only thing I am going to look when it drops, you know, later in the week Friday, I'll just take a quick peek and see what the fight goes to split a majority decision line is. Just, just take a peek. Because, you know, might throw a dollar or two on it because that appears to be Sirius

City's lot in life. you know, like if I was being totally honest, yeah, Smotherman probably does win this fight, but I don't want any part of this action. I do want part of this next action, though, Bill, because Jeremy Stevens returning to the UFC, a lightweight contest against Mason Jones. Jones, I believe the biggest betting favorite on the card, minus 575, come back on Stevens plus 425. Stevens, terrific career going on here.

one in seven with one no contest in his last nine mMA fights oh one and one in his boxing record but three and oh and bkFC and finished eddie alvarez back in january uh mason jones tough first stint in the ufc of one like one fight lost a bunch of them got cut with four no and cage warriors and now he is back against jeremy stevens and billy i'll uh i i just won't bury the lead here think these odds are probably right, but my lizard idiot brain can't be like, Mason Jones isn't that good. And Jeremy Stevens did just knock out Eddie Alvarez.

And sure, MMA and BKFC aren't the same things, but plus 425 is a big number. So I put a quarter of a unit on Jeremy Stevens because I don't need to put a lot. If he wins, it pays out to cover a whole unit functionally. So probably just wasting, you know, 25 bucks. Figure it off it, why not? Yeah, I'm surprised you went that far in the other direction because this is the one that I'm, one of two that will touch on the other one in a second

that I'm strongly considering it's a possible climb. Jones, if memory serves, actually voluntarily asked to leave the UFC, they did not cut him. He was one, two, and one with a no contest. Losses to Mike Davis and Ludovic Klein, nothing wrong with that. Hell of a fight against David O'Nama.

I watched that one back recently. Like, I remember being very impressed by him in the first run, that he went and killed a bunch of people in Cage Warriors, as you do. And Jeremy Stevens is 40, how many years old now? He's somehow not 40. He's about to turn 39. I'm saying, he's not 40 yet. That is insane.

He was in the UFC 35 years ago, but he's only 39. But, yeah, I mean, so I'm crazy for thinking of this as a climb candidate, is what I'm hearing from you. I mean, no, rash. He's probably going to win. But in my head, Stevens is a big number. And I do just want, I want to let you know an important factoid. If Mason Jones wins,

Jeremy Stevens will be the first fighter with the Wikipedia page that he has defeated. Every other opponent with a Wikipedia page he has fought, he has failed to get his hand raised against. So, David O'Nama doesn't have a Wikipedia? Sure doesn't, buddy. What? Top 15 featherweight, I think now, right? we got to stop using the Wikipedia test that

that is incredible please tell David Onama is ranked and does not have a wiki those rules That's the death of the Wikipedia theory Because I know we've It's the best That's been the thing for a long time It's the best

When we got ranked guys with that one I don't know how much validity there is there Yeah but that David Onama fight sucked again It's like whatever so Eh But look, it's probably going to work. I don't want any part of it because also, you know, it would be cool Jeremy Stevens came back to the UFC basically explicitly for this Iowa card, one fight left on his deal or whatever it is, to just come and throw bowlos, see what happened. So he's probably almost certainly going to lose, but I threw a quarter of a unit on it.

But cool things don't happen in this sport. Like, that's the biggest rule, really, is if something would be cool, it would certainly not going to happen. Like whatever's going to be sad is the likelihood That is very true But I try to be positive, Billy Uh positivity as I hear For instance

Let's be real positive about the women's Bannamweight division Which is surging right now As Yana Santos takes on Misha Tate in the first or the main event of the prelim Whatever the hell you call it In a fight In a fist fight's happening Yanna Santos plus 120 Misha Tate minus 140 your betting favorite that is right misha tait in the year of our lord 2025 is a betting favorite

over a ranked opponent because i'm pretty sure yanna santos is ranked they both have wikipedia pages so that that's at least good uh i could give you the deal who cares what is going on in this fight how do you feel about the bets yeah i mean i think Santos is pretty clearly the side here because misha's only two wins since coming back we're against people who immediately retired after and like explicitly we're going to retire heading into the fight. I mean, and you always lose your retirement. Santos may in fact retire after this fight.

She hasn't told us she's going to. Anyway, that's not, I don't care enough to, about the money line side on this, not really what I talk about. Over one and a half in this fight as a potential climb option. This is the other one I'm thinking about. We don't have onshore lines yet. But I think it'll be in the range that that counts. Give me your thoughts.

So this is, I have this circle as a possibility. The main concern is the offshore lines have it at minus 650. And that number is only probably likely to go up. And so by the time it gets to a place I could have it, my guess is it's not going to be in range. I don't hate it. I do want to see if it's within something reasonable, I probably will end up climbing with this. instead I have it circled as a over one and a half parlay with a couple of other bouts on the evening since I think the price is simply going to be too big definitely

on board if it's arranged for being a climb. Tate has hit the over one and a half and nine of her past ten fights the one time she didn't. She's fighting a manor-nunes. Santos has hit eight of her past ten fights. The two times she didn't hit it once she was fighting Chris Cyborg, one of them, and then Arrini-Aldana caoed her. So I think the over one and a half, if that price is near climb zone, I think that that's an obvious jump.

That being said, Bill, I am going to disagree with you on the side. I have decided to bet Misha Tate here. I know that Misha Tate's coming off a 16th month layoff and I know she hasn't beaten anybody good. Yana Santos is on a three-fight losing street before beating Chelsea Chandler. We saw what Chelsea Chandler did just last week. She's not good either. this is not high like these women are ranked because the band and weight division is terrible but throughout her entire career there's one immutable truth about yanna santos she can't stuff

a take down to save her goddamn life she simply cannot defensively wrestle whatsoever and while misha tate is a far cry for when she won the belt i think she can still tilt over at the waist and run forward and that should be good enough to get yana santos on the ground frankly And so I just said, screw it, let's bet Misha Tate. Honestly,

I maybe made this bet at the time when I thought I wasn't going to have a lot of action on this card, but I don't regret it one bit. Let's have some fun. Misha Tate to win and more than likely

the over one and a half will be in a parley and not as our climb this week. Yeah, sure. I mean, again, I think I'm betting out of Santos. I'm not going to argue with anyone about it.

I might not watch it unless I have a climb bet on it. The only thing I will say in her defense is two of those three losses were within like six months of birthing a child. So like, I'm going to give Giannas Santos a little bit of a pass on the last two losses. It's all I'll say. I've never birthed a child, so I can't speak to how much that affects one. Just seems like it wouldn't help, you know. Almost certainly can't help. Here we go. This is a great fight bill. As we go back to the

middleweight division, Ryan Loder taking on Azamot, Bekoev, Bekwev minus 395 favorite. Loder plus 310. Loder, the Tuff 32 winner beat Robert Valentin to win that season of tough, also doubled as the UFC debut. Beckerwev won is UFC debut. Earlier this year, UFC 311, he T-KOed Zach Reese. I do have a bet here, Billy, for a very specific reason, but I want to know what your thoughts are on this fight first.

For the listening audience, we did not discuss this ahead of time. I'm pretty sure we have the same bet. I haven't bet it yet, but we're going the same way. I think I'm going to take a bet on Ryan Loder at plus 300 or so. He's a former D1 All-American wrestler, and we don't know that Bechwev can do anything other than grapple. He might be able to. I don't know. But like at this level, I'm not sure that he can.

And if he can't take Loder down, do we just get like a crappy version of Paul Craig versus Boe Nickel all over again? Like, maybe. Very possible. If that happens, I want the plus three. 300 ticket, not the favorite ticket. I don't think Ryan Loder's great, but like clearly a good athlete and can wrestle. And people have made careers on less than that. So here we are.

So I am also on Ryan Loder. I put a half unit on a plus 310 ticket earlier today. And not for any of the very reasonable and good reasons you gave, frankly, Billy. Like I could pretend that this is because he's a D1 wrestler and Beckerwev is very one-dimensional. No, no, no. I have a much better reason for. we're doing this and it it's quite simple as i met beckle's fight nickname is iron ryan loader is the man of steel steel trumps iron anyway you cut it so pretty easy determination here one of these guys is bad steel

and one of them is the man of steel so ryan loader plus three 10 i'm not bullshitting you when i say that is legitimately the reason i made this i was like yeah yeah let's do that but I thought you were going to say that people with the nickname Iron have lost their last however many fights in the UFC based on how many Michael Chandler has lost. I mean, that's a great argument. Like irons are 0 and 6 or whatever in their last. And when you add an iron Mike Tyson and Jake Paul, we're just, it's a losing streak for the irons. But no, iron not as good as steel. That is all the technical breakdown you get as we move to a women's strawweight contest.

sneaky good fight, well, maybe not a good fight, given where Marina Rodriguez is in her career, but like sneaky relevant fight, Marina Rodriguez taking on Jillian Robertson, again, our second Canadian with Sarje City on this card, despite the fact that the U.C. is going to Canada, literally seven days after this event, Gillian Robertson, a substantial betting favorite,

minus 325, Marina Rodriguez, plus 260 Rodriguez, one in four over her past five, lost a split decision to Yasmin Lucindo in October in a competitive fight. Robertson, four and one since returning to Strawway and currently on a three-fight winning streak coming off a unanimous decision win over Luana Pinheiro. Do you think these odds are just, Bill?

More or less, I don't have a problem with that. The one bet that I've looked at, and again, I've sought on offshore at this price, I'm not sure what it'll be like once we get it domestically. but Marina Rodriguez plus three and a half, the point spread, was plus money offshore. And I would make that favorite. She's lost a bunch of fights, but she's lost them all close. I think all of those fights in that losing streak, she's won at least a round. I didn't look to see if she won a round before getting knocked out by Lemosch.

But in the other three for sure, she won at least one round, and she has a pretty clear striking advantage over Julian Robertson. So, you know, she lands a couple big shots in one of the rounds before she gets taken down and laid on. then we cover the plus three and a half. I don't think she'll get submitted. Like she's a decent enough grappler where Robertson will definitely take her down, but how much she does with it, I'm not too worried about. So that's what I'm looking at.

You can make a case for the underdog. I'm not going on that straight up, but if plus three and a half is plus money, I'll take it. Yeah, you can make a case. I'm not going to. I do have one piece of action already, and this will be the other. So the over one and a half here,

It's looking like it's minus 375 minus 400 on offshores. So, frankly, would not remotely hate that as a climb option, depending on that price. But more likely looking just to pair it with the Santos state over one and a half and one more that we will talk about in just a moment here. But also, I think that you'll be on board with this one, given your analysis of the fight. Goes to decision minus 135. took a bet on it. Rodriguez has never been submitted.

And at a previous point in her career, I'd feel a lot better about her underdog chances here. She seems to have gotten worse at wrestling defensively over the past. She's really given up a lot of takedowns in the last few fights for most of this sort of losing stretch that she has been on. Jeline Robertson is a very, very good grappler, but probably can't finish her given how Rodriguez is proven,

but she can't get the takedowns. So I suspect this goes to the cards. Like, like I'm a little bit younger than that. I'm getting worse at everything all the time. So I think that's, that's not like a mystery why that's happening. She's,

she's getting old, man. Correct. And Jillian Robertson's still just 29. She is sort of coming into her own. So if, like, if the ghost of decision loses, I'll be bummed. But it probably loses because Robertson taps her.

And that's something that we've just never seen happen before. So I like that price at minus 135. Moving on to a fight that I have a very, short analysis of it's gaston belanos versus quang lee belonios minus 140 quang lee plus 120 uh balanos coming off the name is whenever cortavius uh whatever that dude's name is my notes i can't really read romeas romeas that's what it is of my i can't when you can't read your own handwriting that's when you know you were really scribbling through stuff quickly uh um lee oh and two in the uc tko lost to long zhao in november bill

my analysis of this is Bologios is almost certainly going to win. I do not care enough to bet on it. That's all I got. Yeah, I don't care a ton too. I'm also probably not betting on. I do want to point something out, though. 85% of tapology predictions are on Bolognaos,

and yet he has moved from minus 200 to minus 142 just in the past couple days. That's weird. That means there's some really big bets coming in on Kwang Li and a lot of small bets on Bolognaos, which usually means that Lee is, quote, unquote, the sharp side. That's not enough for me to bet it, but that is enough to stop me from betting on Bolognaos

because that's weird. That is definitely weird. I didn't look at that at all. Yeah, I just don't want to bet it because I don't want to bet on a guy who's O and 2 in the O.C. And Gaston Bologna is kind of fun, but I don't care enough. And when you got 12 fight cards, some of them I'm just going to pat.

I'm just like, eh, don't care enough to do the research. which only so many hours in the day. Not true of this next fight though, Bill, because God loves a heavyweight and so do I. Thomas Peterson taking on Donel Mays. Peterson, mine's 265 betting favorite. Donel Mays plus 215. As the dog Peterson,

one and two in the UFC, coming off a knockout loss to Shemil Gaseev in February. Relatively quick turnaround after getting your lights turned off. And Mays, four, six, and one no contest in the UFC, two-fight losing streak, submitted by Walter Walker in February as well. So both guys coming off of February loss, heavyweight's about to heavyweight, Billy. You don't have any interest in this fight?

No. The one thing I put, and this is just more general advice than anything, if you guys keep an eye on draft kings like fighter props when they first post the stat props, they post, some really awful takedown lines that then get moved pretty heavily. If we see Peterson like over one and a half at plus money, it would not shock me they post that. That I would jump on. Other than that,

I've no interest in this fight. He's going to take down to tell me it's down. He better take Don't Tell Me's down. Yeah, that's all I got. I don't care about this fight. I probably will not watch either of the first two flights. I'll just go hang out with my wife or something until 8 o'clock. He's definitely going to take him down,

and he's going to sit on him for a long time. because that's what happens when these two dudes get in there. Don't tell May's nine of his 11 U of C bouts have gone over the one and a half. Two of three for Peterson have gone over the one and a half. But he's a guy who wants to go long. He's a true heavyweight in that fashion. And so whenever I get the option, this will be the third over one and a half teamed up with all of those. To make just a real nice little parlay for ourselves of awful.

just awful, awful fights to watch going long. That is what that parley is going to be, and that takes us to final bout of the evening for us to discuss the first bout of the evening on Saturday, and I don't suspect we're going to spend a combined 30 seconds on it, as if the women's flyweight contest, Julianna Miller, taking on Ivana Petrovich, Petrovich minus 230, Miller plus 190, both women one and two in the UFC, both women coming off losses, though in Miller's defense, her loss was two goddamn years to go against Luana Santos. Because she is three and three, and some hasn't fought in two years, and the UFC is still like,

yeah, let's give you. Like, no, just let her go. Let her go do something else. I don't know what the hell's going on here. Don't care at all about this fight, Bill. Make me care. Tell me why I should. Yeah, I'm not probably going to convince you.

The only, like, thought I have, you can get a lot better in two years. I mean, I know people who went from never training to pro fighters in two years. like it can be done so maybe she got better since then maybe i don't know that's that's all i got honestly that's as good a spin zone as anybody has that is as good a way to sell it as anybody don't really know what this fight is doing here um i didn't look to see if either i'm sure ivana petrovich isn't from i didn't look to see if juliana miller's from i guess she could california yeah yeah just like uh so uh the problem with the way this show is structured, we almost always end

with a whimper because the opening bout of the evening is never spectacular. This is one of the worst ones you'll ever see, though. But Billy, I should have saved yelling at you about Rook-Rub for the end. 100% that would have been a better podcasting. We end with

some pep, but that's okay. Billy, thanks for joining me for the suburb of Michigan that is Iowa. This is a very good card. Well, it's not very good, but it's a very solid card. particularly coming off the back of a good card. And now that we've done this, once Saturday's done,

it's all roads lead to Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Bell Center, Balal Mohammed, Jack Delamadalina, Valentina Shepchenko, Menofior, the worst fight in the fucking history of the UFC, Jose Aldo Amin Zahabi, Alexa Grasso and Italia Silva, and then, oh, buddy, oh, buddy, I can't wait. I can't wait. Binwasandini Joel Alvarez. Oh, that's one of my boys taking on one of my other boys.

Oh, it's going to be the best. And then the rest of that card, you know, a bunch of Canadians, Jessica and Drodge, some stuff happening. It'll be a good time. Bill, uh, where can the people find you? Shout out anything you want to and we'll get the hell out of here. Yeah, actionnetwork.com. I'm very excited for my co-main event preview of R.D.R.

I'm pretty sure to look out for that one. That's really all I have to plug. right now just because I don't care so much about any of these fights. If they just told me I had to sit down and could just watch that one, I probably would. So here we are. It's a terrific fight. I can't, I'm just thinking about

BSD versus it might be terrible, though. I have to. Oh, it's going to be terrible. There's no chance that it's not, but it might be terrible in a fun way. And that's all we can hope for. Thank you for tuning in, everybody. Enjoy UFC, Iowa. And we will be back next week with a

special Canadian guest for the UFC 315 preview until then love y'all