MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: How much does Jared Cannonier have left against Gregory Rodrigues?

Episode Date: February 12, 2025

We're heading back to the APEX! This Saturday, UFC Vegas 102 goes down headlined by a middleweight matchup between former title challenger Jared Cannonier and rising contender Gregory Rodrigues, so No Bets Barred is here to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew flies solo to break down this lackluster card and all 13 fights on it. Topics discussed include how Jed did at UFC 312 (hint, not great!), if Cannonier still has anything left in the tank, why Calvin Kattar shouldn't be as big of an underdog against Youssef Zalal as he is, which other fights are worth paying attention to this weekend, the latest update on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 117 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up? We are back with another edition of No Betts. Are you? And I'm not going to lie to you. It's not a great one. This is usually where I get you hype and I say, hey, it's going to be a great week into fights,

but that is just not the case. Because this weekend we are talking about the return to the Apex. That is UFC Vegas 102. The March to UFC Apex 200, continues in full this Saturday in the world's most famous apex. But first, to do a little bit of a recap over last week. UFC 312 went down. And I use the words went down very, very literally because I went down.

It was a terrible evening for me out in the wonderful, wonderful Sydney, Australia. I ended up losing another two units this year to bring my. grand total to minus four, a little over four and a half units on the year. Certainly not a major amount, not insurmountable last year. We were not super, I mean, we never got very high and we were certainly kind of in this range of losses, but a disappointing start to 2025, no doubt. I cannot predict a title fight right to save my life, basically, other than backing the guy who I just sort of had to back forever.

but the most important thing did happen last week. The climb does continue. Ladies and gentlemen, 10 legs down, one third of the way, through as Drickus duplice, Sean Strickland, over one and a half cashes. We are sitting in a spot that, frankly, I did not think we'd get in. It is absolutely ridiculous to try and string this many bets together. Pulling 10 of them together is pretty darn impressive already. 20 more to go.

certainly not home yet, but very, very, I mean, that was just a stress-free one. We love a stress-free climb bet, particularly since it's the only thing that's going right for me in 2025 from a gambling perspective thus far. Hopefully we can change that this weekend, though, because for some unknown reason, not only to God, frankly, I have placed a fair amount of action on the card this weekend. And notably, though, there will be no climb bet this weekend. There's one bet that kind of jumped out that could be climb eligible. And when we get to that fight, I think you will accept my reasoning why we just decided to take a week off.

We don't want to tempt fate. Ten stories up the building is that is a long way up. And any misstep here means we got to start back at square one. And I'm being, you know, maybe too cautious, some might say, but I am going to be a little. little bit more cautious here and just pass entirely on the climb this week. So let's dive in. I'm running solo. So you know how these shows go.

It's going to be pretty, pretty quick this week, especially because, quite frankly, a lot of fights on Saturday. Certainly a lot of fights. But none of them are what I'd call terrific. Even your main event. Maybe a little bit of intrigue. Maybe a little bit of interest if you were a fan of one or the other. guy, but we're looking at a solid 13-vite schedule with very, very few bright spots.

If there is a bright spot, I suppose it's the main event because one of our favorite fighters is going. The main event, a middleweight matchup between former title challenger Jared Canoneer, taking on Gregory Robocop, Rodriguez. Hadriguez is your betting favor around minus 220 to comeback on Canineer at plus 185. quite frankly I think these odds are probably a little light on Robocop Canineer we all know what's up he is 40 years old he is coming off back to back losses

the unanimous decision is Kyle Borallio prior to that the TKO by Nasrudin Imovov certainly those men are two of the seven eight best middleweights on earth and Kenanier is getting older no shame in that but we you know know, it does not take a sous-sayer to read the tea leaves on this one. Kennedy is 40. I know Robocop looks like he's 40. He is only 32.

And that alone is a big, big, big advantage for Hodriguez coming into this. Not to mention the fact Hodriguez is a world-class grappler. And Canadiere has never been like the best defensive wrestler. The question for Robocop is always, to what extent will Robocop get drawn into a fight that doesn't serve his best interest. He is a world-class crappler. Usually does use that. Like, more often than not, he's going to stick to the appropriate game plan.

But every once in a while, he'll just get in there and start chucking him, just mixing it up and can get drawn into brawls and getting drawn into a brawl against Jared Canaaner, even at his advanced stage, let's say, still a dangerous proposition. That being said, I just, I don't think that that's anything to worry about here. Yes, Canaaner has faced and beaten much better competition. competition, but father time comes for us all. I think it has been definitively pretty obvious that he is slowing down, getting worse. I expect Rodriguez to be able to get this fight to the floor.

I consider taking an over two and a half bet that is around even money, frankly, a lot of books, just because I do think Kennedy is tough enough to probably last a while, but I don't know. I had all seemed risky, and given where I'm out on the year, trying to be a little less risky, broadly speaking. And so I just have a bet on Robocop straight up at the minus 220 price because I think that that number is should be minus 350, maybe even a little bit higher given the circumstances. And so I'll take the value where I can find it as we try and chip away into this deficit for 2025. Moving on, your co-main event.

And this is a co-main event. It's not a penultimate fight. Certainly two dudes with meaningful names, relevant fighters in this weight class. the weight class being a featherweight contest is what we are talking about next and calvin cater the almost guy forever at this point taking on the surging yusuf zal zal a huge favorite minus 390 the comeback on katar i'm sorry kater i don't know why i pronounced it like a country in the middle east the comeback on kater is plus 325 and kind of obvious to see why these odds are the way they are. Kater has lost three in a row, four of five.

Granted, that is all come against the lead opposition, you know. You're talking about the Al Jermaine Sterlings of the world, the Max Holloways. But losing four or five is a, that is just a tough run. And coming off that unanimous decision loss where he was not remotely competitive against Al Jameen Sterling at UFC 300. Very, very tough scenes for Kater and where he's at in his career. And the exact opposite for Zalalal, you know, drummed out of the UFC in his first attempt Since returning, he has been lights out 3 and 0, all of them by finish, all of them by submission,

and now he's getting a crack into the top 15. I do kind of think there's a little bit of value on Cater here, though. Yes, the trends are bad. Certainly do not want to basically discount the fact that Cater is not winning a whole lot of fights all that often. but still, this is a big, big price to have against a man who certainly has faced a better opposition. He's only losing to top tier opposition. And for as good as Zol has looked since returning, not really in the same ballpark as far as what they've accomplished. Stylistically, my question is entirely about how Cater looks because historically, Cater has been a really good defensive wrestler.

And we know that he is a great boxer. Not the best boxer. Max Hollowey taught him a lesson there, but a great boxer with good takedown defense could be an issue for Zalal. Except the Aljo fight was so bad for him. He got taken down at will. I just have no idea if that is a sign of things to come. If he had an off night, if Aljo is just that special even moving up a weight class. I don't know.

And so I decided I'm going to take a flyer on Kater, not going to put a full unit on it. Just a little splash here to see. hey, is Cater still have something left? Because I think that he probably does. He's not that old, 36. I think that, and certainly if he can stuff the takedowns, I think this fight gets very competitive, very, very quickly, and these odds will be viewed as incorrect win,

loser draw. So a little bet on Calvin Cater straight up at a pretty big plus 325 price. Ontario, the weight is over. The gold standard of online casinos has arrived. Golden Nugget Online Casino is live. Bringing Vegas-style excitement and a world-class gaming experience right to your fingertips. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, signing up is fast and simple. And in just a few clicks, you can have access to our exclusive library of the best slots and top-tier table games. Make the most of your downtime with unbeatable

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Edmund Chabasian taking on Dylan Budka. Shabazian a minus 320 betting favorite Budka plus 2.95. Shabasian was supposed to be the future of this weight class. years ago and instead he has lost most of his fights over the past several years. He is two and five over his past seven. And he is coming off that submission lost to Gerald Mearshaart in August. He just never fulfilled whatever promise he had. The opposite side of that is Dylan Budka never really showed too much promise and has not

even been living up to that. He is a contender series guy, a lot of contender series guys on this card. You're going to hear that phrase. over and over again. He was in the 2023 season of Contender Series. In that season, I did not have him rated highly at all. He's still young. He is 25.

That's the best thing you can say going for him because Budka's not like a massively talented fighter. Chabazian certainly is the more talented fighter. Do you want to lay this price at him? Is purely the question. And God, I don't think you should. Granted, he is actually pretty safe regarding. betting history as far as a favorite. Six and two as a betting favorite, most of his

losses he was the underdog who's expected to lose. So if you feel like backing him, you can take a little bit of confidence that Vegas seems to have him pretty well pegged as far as installing him as a favorite versus a dog. But for me, I just I have no interest in

laying nearly this price on a man who has let us down time and time again. So no bet on the feature quote unquote bout of the evening. And that takes us to the first of two Bonfeme bouts. That is right. It is going to be a bonfire, a bonfeme bonfire on Saturday night in Vegas because both brothers are competing. And if you have listened to this program at all, if this is your first time, welcome.

Check back, you know, at a few next week when we're doing something better than this trash card. This isn't going to be your best effort. But assuming you are a long time listener of the pod, you know me. You know I love a gimmick. There is nothing I love more than a gimmick parlay and the most obvious gimmick parlay that has ever existed. It's right in front of your noses this week. Both Bomb Fem brothers are going. Both Bomb Fembrothers are in the parley. It is as simple as that they are both betting favorites, both right around minus 200. Ishmael is taking on Nazim Sattakov. This is, you know, outside of the gimmick aspect of the this fight. I do kind of like this fight, right? I think Ishmael Bonfim is probably the better brother,

though I'm not entirely certain of that. He is coming off the unanimous decision win over Vince Bachel in May that was a rebound after losing to Binwasandani. No shame in losing to BSD at lightweight, frankly. Sadecov, meanwhile, 2-0-1, and he's coming off a draw against Slava Clause well over a year ago. So certainly momentum in Baumfim's favor. And I do think, that this is a matchup that favors him. I think he's a cleaner, better striker. And if Sadekov gets grappling going, this gets a little more competitive, but none of that matters. My breakdown is entirely there are two men named Bomb Fem on this card. They are going in a parlay together. Ishmael is the first leg and we will get to his brother, Gabriel Bonfim,

in just a little bit as we keep on moving down the road. And the next fight we move on down to right back to the middleweight division ladies and gentlemen our third one on the main card our final middleweight fight of Saturday night or our first one I guess of Saturday night more appropriately Hidalvo Vieira

taking on Andre Petroski Vieira minus 250 to come back on Petroski plus 210 both of these dudes been around the UFC a little bit this is a fun matchup it could end up sucking like let's be very honest about it but it

could end up being awesome because both men are, well, it feels wrong to say the thing I was about to say. Vieira is a world-class grappler. And when I mean world-class, I mean world-class, seven-time ADCC champion, four-time world champion in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, world-class. Petrovsky, not nearly as decorated, but fairly extensive grappling history of his own. Certainly, this is how both of these men like to get down when they step in the cage. There is always the risk that this will be, okay, turn into bad kickboxing.

But if it turns into scrambling grappling, that will be sick. I kind of still think it will. And obviously, I favor the 11-time world champion, Hodeliofielo Villar, one of the best of his generation as far as grappling arts go. He is minus 250. The comeback on Petroski is plus 210. And so, you know, maybe a little higher of a price than I want to lay for straight-up bets. but given the nature of this card, I got a few of these, and I'm just on Vietta straight.

Easy, peasy limit, squeezy. We move on to the opening main card fight of the evening, a featherweight contest between two condender series, dude, shocker of all shockers. Connor Matthews, taking on Jose Delgado, Delgado, your betting favorite at minus 275, the comeback on Matthews plus 25. Matthews, he is 0 and 1 in the other. of C was a 2023 Contender Series guy fought once. Patton fought since Delgado, making his UFC debut off of Contender Series, the most recent season. Matthews was just not a somebody I cared about coming off 2023.

I rated him as a just another guy, the bottom category. He's competent. He's durable. Nothing jumps off the page. No flash reverb to his game whatsoever. Delgado has a little bit more of that. He is well-rounded. He's got a lot of volume.

Comes from a good team. He's an MMA-Lab product. The issue is he does not have a lot of athleticism. Not a ton of power, though he did get a knockout on Contender Series. I had him rated as a round three to round four guy. By that sort of back of the napkin math there, I favored Elgado to win, I don't want to lay this price at it. Just too many variables to be betting on fights like this when there's plenty of other opportunities for us on this guard. and frankly, just later this month in the upcoming months as the UFC roster and schedule keeps filling out.

That takes us to the prelim card, and we will rush through a couple of these, but not this next one, because I do think it's a pretty good fight. It is a women's strawweight contest between Angela Hill and Ketland Souza, and this is pretty much pick-um, depending on the books. You might find the price up or down a couple of points, but very, very even. and Hill, you know her at this point. Angie Overkoe been doing this for a very long time in the UFC. Over her last five fights, she's three and two,

and she's coming off that unanimous decision lost to Tabitha Ritchie back in August. Susa, meanwhile, made her UFC debut and coming in as a flyweight, didn't go so hot, drop down, and things have been going much, much better. She's 2 in 0 since her turning to strawweight, and she's coming off that submission win over Yasme, Yarduguay back in September. Based on that, and honestly, this just feels like the odds are a little wrong here. Not like maybe the public bet, like the odds just shouldn't be this even.

I know people love Angie, and I know Angie's been doing this for a very long time. Angie is 40. Actually, let me check that. Maybe she's not 40. She's close if she's not. Oh, no. She, in fact, turned 40 last month, about a month from the day. am I'm recording this in fact.

So Angie is 40. Ketland Sousa is much younger. Certainly, well, certainly is not. I do think she is the better grappler. Should it go to the floor? Not something she does,

but on the feet, I think this is very competitive, if not even maybe a slight favor to Sousa, who I think brings more power than Angel Hill does. And if she can mix them a take down or two, this should be pretty formulaic. I have a very simple policy. and it's fade 40-year-olds when they're fighting,

especially if you're getting prices like this. And Ketland-Souza is not a bad fighter, so I have a bet on Ketland-Souza. I got her at minus 105 at my book, but again, you're going to find her, pick them plus or minus a little bit on that point. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners, I started wondering,

could I get fabulous gifts for everyone on my list? Like this designer fragrance for my daughter. It's just $39.99, how could I resist? This luxurious will throw from my list. my sister. This gold watch for my partner? A wooden puzzle for my niece? Leather gloves for my boss? Ooh, European chocolate for the crossing guard? At these prices, could I find something for everyone at Winners? Stop wondering. Start gifting. Winners find fabulous for less. Our next bout of the evening is when we are basically not going to talk about because at the time of recording this pod,

it changed within, it changed about 30 minutes before I record this pod. Jared Gordon, was supposed to fight Cowie Fernandez, and instead something occurred. Fernandez withdrew from the fight due to visa issues, and he is being replaced by promotional newcomer Mashrabian Ruzabayev.

I have had absolutely zero opportunity to look into Ruzabayev, see anything about kind of what he, how he competes. So, given that, I don't even have a breakdown on this fight. They're on

odds of. So there's no bet so we can move right along to a flyweight contest where Hafeel Estevom takes on Jesus Aguilar. Estevame at minus 340 betting favorite. The comeback on Aguilar plus 300. Estevon is 1 in the UFC coming off unanimous decision win over Charles Johnson. I used coming off pretty loosely here because that win was back in November of 2023. He has been out for some time. Both men from Contender Series again.

They were actually on the same season of Contender Series. Aguilar ended up losing his debut against Tatsu or Taira. We know who Tatsu or Tzuo Tira is. But he's put three together since then coming off a submission win over Stuart Nickel back in August. Though he did miss wait for that. So something to kind of keep in mind. I don't know what to make a vestibom. He comes off Contender Series.

doesn't fight for a long time. Fights then doesn't fight for a long time again. That inactivity is tough to gauge. Aguilar, honestly, overachieving from the expectations he probably had for him coming in off contenders series. Well, with those three wins in a row, not against the best opposition, mind you. But it is what it is. My guess is Estabam just tackles him because Aguilar is not a terrific defensive wrestler. Estevom can and King Grapple.

I just can't weigh this price. This is, this is very, very big numbers. We're seeing a lot of very big numbers this weekend, honestly, which is partly why my bets are pretty, frankly, just not all that interesting or exciting. The exciting one, though, comes next, because this is the second leg of the Bonfim, Bro Parley, Gabriel Bonfim,

taking on Chaos Williams, Bonfim minus 220, comeback on Williams plus 190. You never know in this sport, but I'm going to go ahead and say that if the Bonfine, Bres Parley busts, it's because Chaos Williams hits real hard. Because that's it. Like, Chaos Williams is extremely powerful and has the ability to land knockout shots in brutal, devastating fashion.

Also, a really good wrestler. Like, not like an amazing, but a very solid, rock-solid defensive wrestler. Von Femme, I do think, is the, like, the better technical striker. He gets hit far, far less than Kemp. Chaos Williams does, and certainly he can mix in that ground game. The question is, can he mix in that ground game? I don't know if he can. I don't know if Chaos Williams is going to go there.

If he could, Bonfim wins this all day. Because he can't, honestly, under normal circumstances, I doubt I would bet this fight, but you've got to live your gimmicks. If there's nothing else you learn from this podcast, ladies and gentlemen, I hope it's this. A man must have a code. A man must stand for something. And what I stand for is gimmicks. Because let me tell you, in fact, we can go back to last week, U.S.C. 312.

On this very podcast, I am talking through my gimmick parlay, which was I was going to parlay all the round two fighters, the guys I graded as second round prospects together. There were four of them on the card. And I cowered out as a big, sappy, stupid coward. I said, I don't know, John and Mikkeliffe has a really tough fight against Kevin Juset. Maybe I'll remove him from the parlay and just do the favorites that I graded his round two. And then what happened, ladies and gentlemen, Mikulev does the damn thing against Kevin Juset.

And as I was watching that fight, I was furious at myself. It was the dumbest thing I'd ever done. Now, granted, Cody Steele immediately was the stupidest man alive as far as fight IQ goes and got thumped up by wrongs who properly. and either way the parley would have busted but I felt like a coward because I didn't live my truth. I didn't live my gimmicks. I will not make that same mistake again. Like Kendrick, I learned from my mistakes and I am aiming lower or higher depending on how you want to go.

Gabriel Bonfim, Boffin Bros. Parlay pays out at plus 118 with the odds I got both brothers at. Keep on moving on to a bantamweight contest. one is one I'm actually pretty pumped about because I really like one of the fighters in it. Vince Morales is a plus 140 underdog taking on promotional newcomer Elijah Smith. Morales obviously was in the UFC

for some time, went away, fought on different circuits, made his return last year and lost a unanimous decision as Taylor Lapolis back in September. Smith is the guy I am pumped about because he is a 2024 contender series product. He is one

that I thought very, very highly of. He was a round one prospect. I could have had him ranked higher in the round one rankings as well because he has a lot of natural ability. When I say explosive wrestler, I mean explosive wrestler. Better striking than you would think. Big long frame, very, very athletic.

Got a little bit of ability, like on his feet as well. terrific raw tools to him. The major concern is that he does not have a killer instinct at this point and he needs a lot of development in particular ways. Granted, he is 22 years old. He has plenty of time to develop. I do think he might be better served to develop not on the UFC, not getting guys like Vince Morales this early in his career.

But it doesn't mean he can't win this fight. He has so many tools. who I comped him to a, quote, gentler A.J. McKee just because of that lack of killer instinct. I think that that guy is still good enough to get past Vince Maraz here. I'm excited to see the journey of Elijah Smith. I hope that the UFC doesn't just ruin a prospect by not managing a young man in his career. But frankly, I hope that he's the kind of guy that you could absolutely convince me comes out looking unbelievably better time over time because he's so young, because he clearly has an ability for this that he can pick things up and really turn into something very, very special. So Elijah Smith, super pumped to see him.

I have him at minus 160. And this takes me to my final bet of the evening, our penultimate fight we will talk about. Walter Walker taking on Don Tell Mays in a heavyweight contest. It's going to be heavyweight, heavyweight, heavy weighty weight. Walker one-on-one the UFC lost to Lucas Breske in his debut, which is tough. and then subs junior Taffa back in August. Mays is, he has surprisingly had 10 fights in the O.C. at this point, four, five, and one no contest.

Coming off, he lost to Shemil Gasev back in August, I think this fight is barely straightforward. If Walker can get takedowns early, he's going to run this through. If he can't, both men will probably get very tired, and it's whoever can be more tired win the heavyweightyness. Even in that circumstance, it's still kind of thing as Walker. I just don't trust Don't tell me as if he does not have the most linear path to victory you've ever seen. Probably a bit ridiculous to even lay a bet on this, but I went ahead and did it.

Walter Walker, mine is 200 because I just, otherwise I have so little action on this card. I decided I'd spice things up for myself on Saturday. And the final fight that we will talk about, this is the fight that I mentioned could be a climb bet. It's not because I'm not stupid. it could be. Julia Avala taking on Jacqueline Cavalcante, actually it might be a villa, plus 375, Cavalcanti minus 500. Minus 500 is exactly the number we're looking for in general for a climb bet. I am just not going to climb this high up the mountain. Ten steps up. I'm not placing, right now the bank account for the climb is at 850, not putting 850 down on Jacqueline Cavalcanti.

no matter even if I think she's going to win this fight and I do like I do Avila is coming off a loss to Misha Tate in the year of our Lord 2023 that is just not something that should happen to a UFC caliber fighter frankly Cavalc Conti is you know she's 3 and 0 in the UFC she's looking I won't say a prospect because a lot of split decisions in there but she is looking competent certainly competent certainly like a human being who can can maybe be somebody fresh at women's bantam weight, which is desperately needed. But she's coming up back-to-back split decision wins.

I just don't want to put the climb. Too much is at stake with the climb for Jacqueline Cavalcanti to be. If I lost my bet on the climb at this stage, because I banked on Calaacanti, I'd lose sleep at night. I want to make sure that any bet I lose, I can look myself in the air the next day, and I wouldn't with this one. And so, ladies and gentlemen, that brings us to the end of this card. I told you'd be a quick one. Usually these Apex shows without a guest,

me just cruising through. We are talking a very, very tidy 30 minutes. That's what we're getting here. And hopefully it goes well for all of us. And hopefully next week we can get back on the climb as the UFC takes a road trip and a pretty decent card. I won't say it's an amazing one. Certainly a lot of interesting fights, though.

Obviously much better than this card. And arguably, this card is better than the Saudi Arabia card. we had not that long ago. Henry Suudo taking on Song Yadong in the main event. Brendan Allen taking on Fluffy Hernandez. A couple of other big name fights. Obviously, Dom Cruz is now out of this bout. But UFC Seattle next week, it is going to be a damn good time. Thank you all for joining me this week. We will have a guest next week. Though I do not know exactly who it's going to be yet. So make sure you tune in for that again. Thanks for listening. Love y'all.

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