MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Is Arman Tsarukyan Ready For The Big Time Or Will Beneil Dariush Rebound At UFC Austin?

Episode Date: November 29, 2023

On Saturday, the UFC returns to action with UFC Austin headlined by a lightweight matchup between Beneil Dariush and Arman Tsarukyan, with another ranked lightweight fight between Jalin Turner and Bobby Green serving as the co-main event, and the No Bets Barred boys are here to break down their favorite bets of the weekend. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a brief discussion of college football and their beloved Georgia Bulldogs (who play Alabama in the SEC championship game on Saturday) before diving into this stacked event. Topics discussed include Dariush's chances as an underdog, Jalin Turner stepping in on short notice, what former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo is going to look like up at bantamweight, and wither now is the time to get off the Sean Brady bandwagon. Tune in for episode 71 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two, ghosts in the machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprise his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love?

The Downloaded 2, Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Support for this show comes from the Audible original, The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever.

Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster, the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, what are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The downloaded two, ghosts in the machine.

Available now, only from Audible. What is going on? We are back another edition of No Betts Barred. This time, UFC Austin. Promotion returns to the lone star state for the main event of Benil Daryush taking on Armin, Sarukin, fantastic fight. There's a lot of great fights on the main card. I'm very excited for this.

4 p.m. start too. We're getting a crowd. We're getting a great main card, a good card overall, and it starts at 4 p.m. Can you ask for anything better, Jed? I mean, let's just get into this right at the top. I got two things I want to talk to you about this week. We'll get into one of those coming up. Here's the problem with the 4 p.m. Connor,

Because there's one big problem. This week, of course there is. And it's this week. So, all right. I got to be honest, as much as I would love to watch Veronica Hardy take on Jamie Lynn Horth or, you know, Ihor Potieri take on Rodolfo Bellado. I mean, we all want those fights. We've been waiting for those fights.

For years. You and I got some business right around 4 o'clock on Saturday. So here's the thing. I'm a two TV guy. Always been a two TV guy. Also, parlay that with for serious games, for big games. If I'm not going to be in attendance, my ass needs to be on my couch or a very close friend's couch with, you know, as much streamlining as possible.

I cannot, for a game of this magnitude, I cannot be out at a bar, can't be dealing with the bullshit, like no sound. Oh, can we get that TV change to CBS? You guys mind changing that for us? I appreciate it. The $10 drinks, everything. I need to be in my own environment. I need to be in control.

So the way I'm going to be doing it on Saturday, big screen, obviously full blast, sound bar SEC championship game for sure. Small side TV, completely muted. We'll be glancing over every once in a while to keep tabs on the UFC Austin card. The good news is we're just saying before we got on, main card's beautiful.

Top four fights are unbelievable. Cannot wait for the prelims? You know, prelimbs aren't that great. So like by the time the main card is starting, like we'll be in the later stages of the Georgia game. And by the time we're getting to the final four, Georgia game will be over and hopefully we will be the SEC champions. I mean, God willing, I would just be terrific. And, you know, not even, I could selfishly say that I want it for us, Connor. And I do. We want it. We want Georgia. which is, you know, back to back to back. It's just what we want.

But I'm really more thinking about the selection committee because if, you know, heaven forbid, knock on wood, Bama beats us. The selection committee is going to have a really tough time on Sunday. I think we're out. I think we're out. I think we're out. But what do you do with Bama and Texas? They're going to have too many hard choices to make.

I want to save them all of that. Would the dogs just get another W? 50 in a row or whatever. scene number we're at. I honestly can't believe the stats that we've started to pile up. So let's just, let's do that, Connor. Why we do that, you know, when we get that job, then cash some tickets. It'd be great. You mentioned it. It's just that easy. Win in your end. I mean, let's just, let's just do that. Because if we don't win, if you're unfamiliar with the scenario, if you're strictly an MMA fan, we won't spend too much time on this. Just a brief

minute here at the beginning of the show, the number one ranked Georgia Bulldogs will be taking on the Alabama Crimson Tide, who we will find out their ranking this evening, probably around seven, but with a win, they will be in the college football playoff. That is undoubtedly a sure thing for them if they can knock off the top team. I am not 100%. Okay, the only way that they get left out, in my opinion is if you have 13-0 Michigan, Washington, Florida State, and then they do the right thing, which in my opinion is the right thing,

put 12-1 Texas over them. I mean, why do you play the games if they're going to go to Tuscaloosa and they're going to beat Alabama in Alabama? And then when they're both 12-and-one conference champions, you're going to put in Texas over them? That's nonsensical. On the flip side of that,

are they really going to leave out the SEC? I think they will. I think they have to. Because if they don't, it is such a bad look for them. I agree. To be like, hey, actually, this doesn't matter. This is really just a cash grab. And sorry that you won your game too early in the season.

Should have taken that loss back in September instead of doing it. It's can't do it. Right, because they make this argument of like when you lose. It's just like, why do you play the game then? Because you have to go 12 and 1 to be in the argument. So, like, I mean, if they had lost that Bama game, they would be out for sure. It's just like, I don't know, sometimes you can get nonsensical, but man, yeah, leaving out the SEC.

But then they make the argument best four teams. FSU lost their quarterback. Are they really one of the best four teams now? I'm here for that argument, but it does. You can't. You just can't do it. If you leave out undefeated FSU, the state of Florida may start an insurgency. I mean, I thought they've been fraudulent all year.

Then they lose Jordan Travis. Now I really think they're fraudulent. And I bet Florida plus 200 thought I was going to get there. Looks spicy for a minute. Looks spicy. I mean, maybe they just lose to Louisville. That is very much in play. Oh, very much, especially Louisville coming off a loss.

Like, I mean, we just saw Auburn come off a horrific loss to New Mexico State and then literally choked in the last 40 seconds to Alabama. So Louisville is very much. They've been trying to choke it. I mostly, I just want to take care of business. And what I want, Conner, is I want you and I to have a show, you know, come January, we're talking about whatever the fight night card is. And we're talking about the Natty, us versus Michigan.

I think we're the two best teams in the country. And I want to settle up. We were supposed to settle up last year. Michigan did not handle business. And so instead we got, you know, just a squash match Natty. I want Michigan. But first we got to beat Bama and then we got to beat this fight night card. Yeah, Saturday, 4 o'clock.

I mean, things get serious on Saturday at 4 o'clock. You know, all year we've been massive favorites. I've never really been concerned. Auburn game, live bet them when they were plus money. South Carolina game at halftime, live bet them minus 140. Always had faith. Bama. Bama's kind of been the kryptonite.

You're always worried when you see those damn old. old fashioned ass, boring ass, crimson-thied uniforms lining up across. They are touched by God. Like how they didn't lose is just. It's absolutely insane. That's the most like walking in the light moment I've seen. I was watching with buddies and we couldn't believe that game. So like how is Auburn doing this?

Like how are they doing this? Couldn't believe it. The good news for us is all we got to worry about is that. Don't got to worry about X beat next and Y. beating X and X beat and Y. Just got to focus on the team right in front of us. Just got to handle business on Saturday. Yeah, it's going to get real serious.

It's going to get real nervy. It's, yeah, because it's not like 2021 where we lost. We were still in. This is looking like the season. And if we don't win, we're in a fucking New Year's 6. Bless my heart, if that happens. Because like you said, the amount of wins that we have, the records that we are setting is just absolutely mind-boggling.

30 straight games or whatever it is. We're going for three in a row. You just got to keep it perspective. It can be gone like that. It can be gone like that. Look at Clemson. Talk to a Clemson fan after the 2018 season and be like, hey, man, I feel like.

We're going to be good forever. Now they're like seven and five. And they're talking about dabble potentially leaving. Can go quick. Can go quick. But this is not a college football podcast. This week it can be. Even though this, like we said, this is a hell of a fight fight night.

I can talk about the scenarios that could come into play on Saturday for hours because it is... Instead, you want to talk about Wellington Tourman? Truly fascinating. But instead, I do want to talk about Wellington Termin taking on the returning Jared Gooden in his second stint in the UFC. So we will do just that. PFL, before we jump to that, PFL, rumors circling that it was your best week of the year. It was. this is so dumb

like gambling is so stupid we went into that show last week and we're just like hey man we're gonna keep it tight and you know I think it was like a 35 minute episode yeah just gonna shoot the breeze have some fun just fire from the hip did no research

wiki cap the whole thing at one point you correctly informed me that I misread Chris Wade versus which which fight Chris Wade had won against Bubba Jenkins it's like well the best already in, that bet ends up pushing because the fight gets scrapped. So that bet's just a no bet. And then I up over 10 units. That's just to hit almost everything. It was just the stupidest,

silliest, the least amount of work I've put into a card this entire year, easily my pet showing. That's the way it goes. This is a very dumb game. And because it's dumb, Connor, I decided I'm going to roll this heater. I've done no prep here. Done zero. I'm firing from the hip back-to-back weeks because, you know, worked once. Why not? This is all vibes. Everything is like, I don't know. I think that dude's going to win, and that's going to be my breakdown. I can't wait to hear what you've got this week. Congratulations on a massive week. I had a winning week. I was a winning week wasn't a massive week. I'm not going to lie. I was, I mean, I was one or two very close losses away from having a massive week. Pacheco gets the knockout. I mean, we're really cooking.

and Sky Nicholson fight went into the ninth round, had it gone all 10. I mean, then I'm probably right there with you around 10 units. Also weak stoppage too. Week stoppage, thrown in the towel. I mean, come on. So very close, but I mean, that's just a variance in this game. Hopefully I'll have some more lucky, advantageous breaks. Moving forward, I mean, just three more betting weeks left in the year.

It's looking like I'm going to finish in the green again this year. Hopefully things don't go too bad. I'm knocking on wood. But I'm hoping I can finish with three straight winning weeks to close us out of 2023. And then we're just going to start it all again in 2024. What a year it has been. And let's dive right in. UFC Austin.

Talk about this main event, man. But Neil Darius, who before he lost to Charles Oliver, was riding an eight-fight win streak, was one win away from fighting for the lightweight title against Islam Makashchev. unfortunately gets finished in the very first round. He's now taking on Armand Sarukian. Prospect who's been around the game for a minute and feels like there's just always been the belief that like one day we're going to get that rematch between him and Islam, but this time it'll be for a title supremely talented. Comes in as a minus 278 against Benile Dary Euse. Daryush coming back at plus 225. Fantastic fight.

Am I wrong? For thinking the line is a little wide here for Benny D. Like we just saw at 280 when he fought Gamrod, very similar skill-wise. I mean, Sarukian and Gamrod went to an absolute war. Very similar skill-wise, prospect, incredible record, likes to use the grappling. Benile Der Eush, plus 220 dog there, got it done. Yeah, my vibes are saying I'm taking Benile Deruesh at plus 235, because I think I think this does feel wide.

Look, I am super high on Armand Sarukin. I have been for a hot minute. I won't say I'm like the highest. You know, Mike Heck has been preaching the gospel of Armand for years and years. Like, is absolutely convinced he's going to be a champion. I am very convinced Armand Surukian is going to be a top 10 guy in this division for five, six, seven, eight years.

He's going to fight for a title. And, I mean, heck, he's got a great chance to win one because he is so good. But it's also lightweight. Like, I'm not going to predict anyone to be a lightweight champion other than Islamakov. I was pretty early on being like, yeah, that dude's going to hold the belt. It's just lightweight, it's just full of killers. But by that same tokey, no, he knows, damn killer. Van Nail Darius.

I mean, metal tested. Like, this dude has been through the fire. And you brought up the fight that, like, I guess is probably giving me the vibes. And it is the Matush Gamron. This Gamron is Ruky and a priest. similar fighters like the different um i'd say surukin i know he lost to gamrott i think surukin is a little bit higher ceiling than gamrot does because he's still so young and he's definitely a little bit better on the feet than gamrod is but he lost that fight because gamrott could not get takedowns and was just

just got shoot up on the feet by benny der eush i think surruchian can fare a little bit better on the feet than gamrott did but i think the same things are at play here if you can't get takedowns Benny D's going to do great. And I think at this price, love to take a dog shot on Benny D. Yeah, I haven't played it yet, but I am, I'm really considering it.

Like, it just, like, it feels like the same thing as that Gamera fight. You're giving him to him, plus to 20? I mean, this guy, like, I know he, obviously, he got knocked out

in the first round against Charles Oliver. This guy was a favorite, a favorite against Charles Oliver. I bet him against Charles Oliver. Yeah, like, also, So, Armand, like, I know he beat Joaquin Silva, and, like, if you look at the stats, it looked like a fairly one-way traffic. He was like a minus 1,000, and that was sweat city for the kid.

He got wobbled pretty bad at one point. Obviously, he ended up getting a win, and he got the win by finish. But, yeah, I mean, I just feel like this is going to be more competitive than almost minus 300. And, like, if I'm saying that, then it feels like I got to just take the shot. Like, do I think Armand is going to win? Yeah, probably, probably going to win. But, like, maybe, like, minus 170. Like, that feels more like I'd be like, oh, okay, yeah.

But, yeah, I guess a ton of money has coming on Armand. I know he opened at shorter odds than this. Or, yes, shorter odds than this. So, yeah, it feels like we're on the same page here. Great fight. Great fight. I mean... Would not mind that going all 25.

Would not mind it one bit. I mean, it would be terrific. It goes all 25. Interesting start. Last week, we were... We had a bit of dissension. So this week we've gotten on the same page. Probably means we're going to fail.

But that's all right. You know, a lot of fights left. Boarding for flight 246 to Toronto is delayed 50 minutes. Ugh, what? Sounds like Ojo time. Play Ojo. Great idea. Feel the fun with all the latest slots in live casino games and with no wagering requirements.

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From festive and cozy fashion to luxe beauty and fragrance sets. Our special selection has something for every style and price point. Visit our Holt's holiday shop and store or online at Holt Rens. Let's keep it rolling to the co-main event of the evening. Jalen Turner coming in on short notice to take on Bobby King, Green. And right now you can have Jalen Turner from minus 218. Bobby Green coming back at plus 180. I'm a big fan of Jalen Turner. Kind of crazy that he's 13 and 7. Just feels like his record should be much better than that. Always puts on entertaining fights. Same thing with Bobby Green. I think this is going to be going to be madness. Wouldn't be surprised if someone got finished here. I mean, Jalen Turner, when he wins, it's typically by finish. Probably going to be staying away here, though. Paying over minus 200, Jailen Turner on short notice, he's got to make that cut all the way down to 155. If he's successful, then, you know, I think he's probably going to get this one done. If he struggles with the weight cut, if this fight gets

extended, it could get kind of dicey. So I think I'm just going to stay away. I'm just going to enjoy this one. I'm a huge Jalen Turner guy. I've been, been real high on him because the boys got traits. Like, I love a man with a superpower. Like, those are the guys I'm trying to back in this game. And Jalen Turner is enormous. He's just the most enormous lightweight that's maybe ever been. And he's been damn good. And he keeps developing. He's had a tough, tough little run, you know, like showed something against Gammar. I know, though he clearly lost that fight, but he kept battling through and then Dan Hooker I put that down to just being

an unbelievable performance from Dan Hooker I mean like world class like to eat the shots that he ate I think he broke his arm yeah in that fight and to like just keep powering through like the heart that Dan Hooker showed few guys are going to be able to replicate that

yeah just absolutely unbelievable stuff and I'll be honest I was excited to come onto this event and bet against Dan Hooker and Bobby Green. I was ready to place that bet because I said after that fight, and I think that it's, I believe that it's true until proven wrong,

which always can be. I think that's going to be the final fight of Dan Hooker, the guy. Like, you see guys just leave so much themselves in the cage after win. And Dan Hooker just took so much damage to gut through that. That, like, I think. The head kick that he ate, like, puts out 99% of the Earth's population.

He just, he willed himself through the fire. And I think that that takes something out of you seeing before. I think that was going to happen. I was ready to bet on Bobby Green. Obviously this happens. I think Jalen Turner is going to do great in this fight because he's enormous. I think Bobby Green is not a guy who's going to repeatedly wrestle him. I think this fight will be real fun.

Bobby Green will scrap, but he's scrapping with a much bigger man. And we've seen Bobby Green get hurt. I'm taking Jalen Turner inside the distance plus 115. Plus 115. Wow, it's plus money. That too is a bit tempting. Yeah. If it were minus, I probably would also be staying away or I'd be trying to spike. Like, is it TCO? Is it submission?

Like, it's more likely if he gets to finish, it's going to be a K.O. Because Bobby Green hadn't been submitted in like eight years or something really long. But we've seen him do the club and sub thing. And she's got those super long arms. So I'm playing it a little safer and just going for turning inside the big. We are aware that Jalen Turner has never won via decision. That played a factor in my choice. Bobby Green has been finished six times.

That's tempting. That is tempting. I didn't expect that to be plus money. I'm not going to lie. I'm not going to lie. I didn't do the diving deep there. I might have to add a poke on that. I might have to add a poke on that.

I love talking you into. stuff with my vibes. I mean, when the guy wins, it's exclusively by finish. He's an absolute killer. Bobby Green is tough, but like he's, I would rate Dan Hooker's ability to battle through the fire higher than Bobby Green's.

Bobby Green's a little older. Bobby Green's been fighting a lot, you know? I don't mind that. This is fourth fight of the year. Four fights is a lot of fights. I don't mind that one bit. Let's keep it rolling. Rob Font, on the Bantamweight debuting, Davison Figurado.

Another just fantastic fight here. Right now, Rob Fonk, coming in as the slight favorite. You can have him for minus 135. Figgy coming back at plus 114. Quite a few question marks coming into this one, like surrounding how Figgy's going to look here at 135. Rob, obviously, he is getting older at these lower weight classes that doesn't typically mean good things for the aging vets

at the smaller weight classes. He's going to be at a size disadvantage, which he typically did not find himself in fighting at 125. On the flip side, I mean, Figgie can crack. And like, we've seen Rob Fon hurt several times. And also, Fon is older than Figgie. Yeah. That's a great point.

That's a great point by you, man. You know, I can't argue that. I can't argue that. I only know this because Rob Fonton doesn't seem like he's old. And then every time I look at it, it's like, he's actually like in his like 36 or 37. Geez. Yeah. Aging.

Yeah. Really, I said all of that. I said all that just to be like, this fight's very close and I don't know who's going to win. And I'm just going to sit back and enjoy it. I love this. You're going to be picking up some more under. card action which is great because I I'm playing a lot of the stuff here and I'm playing Rob Font um I considered Rob Font by decision because historically that has been where most

of his bread has been buttered um but but I don't know too many questions figgy's going to be real small in there against Rob font Rob's got that great jab he's going to have the length figgy is explosive um you know and that's we've seen Rob kind of struggle with that in his career. I mean, basically his losses to Cheeto and Aldo where he had more volume, but they just hit real hard and kind of landed on him and hurt him. So, you know, that certainly is a concern. But Figgie's coming up a weight class against the guy who's quite large and very good.

And I'm just staying on Rob Fon here. So just take it. Rob Fon is my guy. Rob Fon is my guy. Head on the watch party one time. Great guy. I cashed the underdog ticket against Adrian Yannas earlier this year. Rob Fawn is my guy.

I was supporting, be supporting old Robby on Saturday, that's for sure. It's going to be very interesting to see Figgie at 135. Yeah, we got to get Figgie versus Cody Garbrand. I mean, that's the fight we got to have happen. One day, one day. For now, though, let's enjoy this one, because it should be fun if nothing else. Let's keep going to another fun fight, Sean Brady. So many of them.

I mean, this is a great one. Sean Brady is taking on Kelvin Gasol in the return. After seven years away from welterweight division, Kelvin Gaslam back at 170. And right now he is the underdog to the once beaten Sean Brady. Right now, Brady minus 120 Gasolm coming back at plus 100. You look at Gasolum's IG page? I have never do this. dive. It's a weakness in my game. I certainly didn't prep here. What's, what's, what's a,

he's looking nice. He's looking fit. 32 years young for our man training and a fight ready. He's still so young. I mean, he looks good. He looks good. Let's pull it up. Let's pull up the gram. Blockhead for old KG. Like, Sean Brady's not a knockout artist. Like, I feel like if he, if he avoids the takedowns, if he can stuff the takedowns, he has a, very large chance of winning this fight. That's the question. Is he going to stuff the takedowns? What do you think here?

Because I have thoughts. I'm going to lean, yes. I'm going to lean that he's going to be able to stuff the takedowns. And I know that everyone's like, oh, everybody's off the Sean Brady train because of the Bilal fight. I was actually on the Sean Brady train during the Michael Keaza fight as well. And that third round got Doi C. I mean, it looked like he was just about to get finished in that third round.

And if Kelvin Gasolam can stuff to take downs here and use just pressure and volume, I really think he can give Sean Brady some trouble. Now, there is that world where Sean Brady just like leveled up, like the loss caused him to level up. And he just comes out here looking like a new beast. But dog odds, don't mind, Kelly. I understand everything you're saying. I'm not going to follow you into this one. I think you've got the right breakdown on this, obviously, if Kelvin can stuff him.

And Kelvin, you know, was a wrestler, pretty decent. In the way that people are getting off the Sean Brady train, and that's a real thing that's happening, I'm hanging on to it just a little bit longer. I'm not dying on it, but I'm hanging on just a little bit longer. But mostly, I've just never been on the Kelvin train. Just never been on the Kelvin train. He is one of those dudes, like him and Darren Till and there are a couple other guys who just had the ability to lose and get bigger and bigger fights despite losing. I mean, look at his resume.

I pulled it up to make sure. Like, the Chris Curtis fight had a little bit of controversy in there. That's his most recent ones to win. Everything else, though. like he beat Ian Heinish and then he lost five fights like that's the run he's head the grand it's a middleweight and a lot of really good names in there one of those is the israel disneyer fight one of the best fights of all time where he was super competitive but like he just hasn't been beating people enough for me to be like super sold and now he's making this weight cut back a weight class I think you should have been in the whole time but he was like so adamant I can't do it can't compete there like it just can't make it and now suddenly he is that can't gives me some pause, like, why, where are you at mentally that this is the change you're making when you denied for years that it was viable? I got too many questions about a guy I don't even particularly support as a fighter. He's just one of those dudes. So give me Sean Brady.

I'll take because it's almost to pick him, got him at minus 120. Take Sean Brady. I need two takedowns, Connor. It's all I need. Two takedowns cash this bet. I like that breakdown. I like that breakdown. It kind of feels like the inverse of what a lot of people are saying this week. I like that. So yeah, budding heads on this one. One of us will be a winner. Should be another fantastic fight, man. I mean, this is the perfect plan on Saturday that we're watching either Clay Gwita or Joaquim Silva get their hand raised, just as, just as George is hoisting the SEC championship trophy and it's just like, all right, now we're good to lock into these last four fights. Now we're good to lock in. Yeah. I mean,

It's going to be great because I also, I'm working Saturday evening because there are a couple of other events. Originally, I was going to be working on this fight card. I was like, hey, guys, I'm going to need you to check that back. I got to come on a little later because the Georgia game was like, cool. So I'll be punching in, ready to go to work with that, you know, another title in the trophy case, and then ready to watch the big stuff. So it's going to be fun. Hopefully, hopefully.

Let's keep it rolling. Knock on wood. Clay Guida, back in the octagon, 62nd. professional fight for our man taking on Joaquin Silva just as a 16th just a little bit of an experience deficiency here for old

Joaquin but right now he is currently the minus 325 favorite Clay Guida coming back at plus 260 this breakdown's easy for me Clay Guida 23 career losses

11 of come by way of submission. And you're going to tell me he's fighting a black belt named Netto BJJ. There it is. I can confirm that is in fact what Joachim Silva's name is. That's all I needed to hear. Silver by sub plus 300. Maybe a little club and sub.

Does it concern you the walking Silva? But he doesn't have a submission in the UFC? No. Correct. It doesn't. You got a zig one other zag, baby. Hey, that's, what's the war? and Buffett quote, you have to be

brave when others are afraid and afraid and others are brave. Okay, I love it. I love this energy. Listen, man, I mean, he's got, I understand that he's got hands. I think his last five fights have ended by K.O. Whether he wins or loses him. He's down for a scrap. He's got knees, too.

Had a very impressive flying knee knockout in the UFC as well. I'm thinking clubbing himself. I'm thinking he hurts old Clay. What's the price? I mean, also, He did have plus 300 on that. He did have a nice gilly on Neil Magny in a grappling tournament. Clay Gweed, it likes to get gillied. He's gotten, he's lost by guillotine choke about five times in his career.

So yeah, that's open. I love it. We're breaking the curse. We're breaking the curse. I was about to say, just for the sake of our listeners, I want to point out that by virtue of you betting sub-prop, it's our, you can just There's no way it's getting. If you had the ticket before listening to this, burn it. Because it's dead.

It is dead. I am going to put Joachim Silva in a parlay. Just because Clayweed is 1,000. Joachim Silva's seems very good at fist fighting. He's athletic, man. He's quick. I feel like there's going to be a strong differential there. Yeah.

And you mentioned it. Like he was real competitive against Amon Surikin, who I think is one of the eight best fighters in the world in his weight class. So yeah, give me Joachim Silva in this setup as a parley piece. I also am on fight does not go to a decision. I really do think they're going to push a heavy pace. And Silva, like I said, five straight fights, whether he's winning or losing have ended inside the distance. So that's that one, 41-year-old fighting. Got to love it. Legend, Qua, Clay Gwita. Let's finish up the main card, Puna, Soriano, taking on Dustin Stolsfus. This is where the card kind of starts, you know, taking that turn.

It does. Right now, Puna, minus 270, Stolzvus coming back at plus 220. Tough. I was going to say it's tough to trust Dustin Stolfis. I mean, one in the UFC, singular win over Dwight Grant, even the contender series, the Joe Piper win. Like, I understand that he, like, he did slam him and break his arm, but, like, not the most conventional win.

Foon. Fought decent competition though, given that. Sure, sure, sure. Puna's not like, I mean, he's not, he's not the most trustworthy guy, but I do think he has some advantages here, especially if it stays standing. And with Puna's wrestling base, I tend to agree or he's going to be able to have this success. I feel like Stolzvus, if he tries the wrestle, he's not going to be able to make it work.

And I think Puno will make him pay on the feet. He really does have serious knockout power. Stolves and knocked out in the UFC. I think Puna gets this one done. I agree with the Puna getting this one done. I mean, mainly, and again, I'm wiki-capping this whole thing, guys, so don't bet your lives on this. But Dustin Stolfe's lost to Abbas,

and I'm just not sure that that's a good loss. You know, I mean, beating Abbas gets you a title fight, as we all know, makes you one of the very best in the world, losing to him probably at least in my mind doesn't uh doesn't do that that well so uh you mentioned puna's got the we know he's got hits real hard taking a shot on puna by KO plus 120 love it love it love it let's keep it rolling to the prelims i don't have nearly as much action here i really don't have that much action at all this week uh not my favorite card from a betting standpoint Misha Tate taking on Julia Avila.

And right now, Julia, 28 months away, had a baby, has had surgery. But she is the minus 155 favorite. Misha Tate coming back at plus 130. So you tell me, 28 months away, baby, has had surgery. Tate, 17 months away coming off a not a. Best performance, I'd say, against old Lauren Murphy, one in four and the last five, one win coming over, Marion Renaud. Didn't even look that good against a retiring Marion Renaud. I say all that because I'm passing.

I will not be. I think I really wanted to talk myself into a bet here just because, you know, Misha Tate, former champion, like to have some action on a fighter of that profile. But particularly if I'm just trying to shoot from the hip, like I don't need to. look at tape. I just be like, I remember all of Misha Tate's fights. How did this go? I can't get there on any price for either side. I think Avila's probably going to win, because Tate has looked so, so bad since returning, but Avela's been off for a lifetime and certainly wasn't as good a fighter as Tate was at their peaks. Again, I think Avela's going to win, but probably shouldn't be like this big a favorite,

just given the circumstances. So this is a full. stay away. This is a poison fight. Don't touch it. Yeah. Yeah, I'm not a, not a big advocate is betting on, of betting on this one. So I did bet on on it by using the over one and a half as a parlay piece. Just a little action. 12 of her of Tate's last 13 and Avella, three of her four in the UFC over the more and a half. Honestly, Tate's real tough, like real terrible. I was going to say, not going to finish Tate early if it happens. Not going to one. Yeah, I was going to say, Tate, the only time she went under one and a half was against Amanda Nune. He's like, we can give her a small break there.

Yeah, also because she took a hellacious beating in that fight too And was still trying She's still trying All right, let's keep it rolling Cody Brundage taking on Zach Reese And right now The 6-0 debutante is a minus 218 favorite Cody Brundage coming back at plus 180

Yeah I'm using the under 2 and a half as a parlay piece Reese 6 and 0 6 up up six down all first round finishes. Brundage, eight of his last 10 under the two and a half. Strongly think someone's gonna get got here. When it comes to his side, like, I don't know.

I don't know anything about Zach Reese. He's six and oh and has not seen a second round. And Brundage, like, he got bailed out by illegal elbows last time. Like he should be on a four fight losing streak and he should be eight and six. So just not really trying to trust either of these guys. I think this is a terrific bet from you. If I was doing over underbats or whatever, I would absolutely have one of those.

That would be a piece because Reese, I know Reese, because he was on Contender Series, and I mentioned this either in the last show, was the show before last, I can't remember. Did a big write-up post-contender series, breaking down like all the prospects who got signed and sort of slotting them in categories.

And I had to create a special category for Zach Reese and two other gentlemen off the show called Defense is Optional, because if you watch the, some fight. They, all offense, absolutely zero interest in protecting themselves at all times, as per the referee instructions. So I think he's probably going to be Cody Brunge, who's very good, but this is a man who puts his chin out there. And, uh, someone's getting got. Uh, I think Reese will do the getting, but I would not trust him with favorite money. So I love that underbett for you, for you. I love it. I hope it works out for me. Let's

Let's keep it rolling. Joe Selecki taking on Jakar-Close right now. Rekar, your favorite, minus 122, Selecki plus 102. Kind of like the Rob Font figgy fight, feels like this one's going to be very close. I mean, the odds are indicating that it's essentially a coin flip, just like the Rob Font fight. Yeah, I just, I don't know who is going to win here. that's that's that's that's my breakdown i mean what an absolutely remarkable i mean that's what the people come here for the angles that's what the people come here for but yeah i just uh you're not sure on this one i uh i would lean joe selecky but like you i'm unsure uh i've just i've been burnt by dracar

close uh betting against him some previous times in his career i've been burnt by joe selecky betting on him so uh this is kind of a double down on we shouldn't bet you at all. That's a lot of not good action. We're getting it both ways and in the teeth. So yeah, Draccar Close just kind of overachieves in spots where I don't think.

Again, I would because if I'm just picking, I'd take Joe Selecki, but I'm not going to put money down on that. Same. Sounds good to me. Let's keep him moving. Joe Selecky got to like plus 140 or something. I might be tempted, but he's not, the number is not going to move that far.

so. Let's keep it rolling to these next two fights I'm very much looking forward to. Steve Garcia taking on Melquiselle Costa right now. Costa is the favorite minus 238 Garcia coming back plus 195. What a brawler Steve Garcia has turned into. I mean, he's always kind of had that K.O. in them, but like, in these last few iterations of them, it is just stand and bang. I love it, man. I mean, he will

go out on his shears. Seven of his last eight fights ended by Kio, win or lose. I mean, I think he's just going to come in with the same game plan here, and I think Kosta is going to oblige, and we're just going to see two dudes go at it, and someone's going to get dropped.

Yeah, I have nothing to add. I'm not betting this one. because I could not remember. I know that I've watched Costa fight, but I cannot remember the fights. And I wasn't going to watch tape. Yeah. He's got two UFC fights this year.

Yeah. I know, because I know like I looked at his topology. It's like, oh yeah, I've definitely watched this dude fight. I cannot tell you what happened in those fights. Yeah. Steve Garcia, I can remember. Steve Garcia's got great fights, man. I'm nothing if I'm not a Steve Garcia fan.

Garcia is a good little action fighter. Win or lose? Win or lose? He's there to have some fun, man. Let's keep it rolling. To another guy that, Win or lose, we're probably going to have some fun. When I got a great deal on a great gift at winners,

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Instacard, groceries that over deliver. Service fees exclusions and terms apply. Ehor, Potaria, taking on. Adolfo Bellado. Right now, the biggest favorite on the card, Adolfo Velado sits at minus 410. Ehor coming back at plus 320. Kind of feels like this is just going to be an Ehor fight.

It's two big boys, too behemists, at 205 coming in here. Probably going to get kind of hectic. Probably going to get kind of crazy. And someone's going to get finished, probably pretty quickly as well. Six straight fights for Ehor have not seen the third round. 19 of his 24 in his career have ended in round one or two.

And then Bellotto on the flip side, 11 of 12. Sorry, 12 of 13 have ended in round one or two. I mean, feels like someone's going to get finished, too. I mean, yeah, someone's going to get finished and that person is going to be Ihor Potieter. Yeah, look. Yeah, probably. Like one, this is the other leg of my two-leg parlay with Joachim Silva.

You know, just a little two-leger pays out 150, a little Brazilian parlay. Mostly, I would have done this on principle because I'll never forgive the duelist for beating Shogun. Because, like, what an insane way to end Shogun's career with that. one of the dumbest things in recent memory and you know Hidalvo Brazilian he's got to he has to punish this man for what he did to

one of the all-time legends I think he's going to step up he's going to answer the call he's going to send Ehor to the land of winds and ghosts and avenge the great chogun Okay I like this this is the Brazilian revenge fight right here it's right here I would exclusively match Ehor up against

Brazilians if I were the UFC just let everybody just work his ass for what he did to Shogun, how he sent Shogun out, out of the game. Or what if Ihor is the 205 Brazilian Slayer? I mean, him and Dalby cut from the same cloth. Then that, then we got a whole separate section of things. Then you got to book him and Dalby main and co-main event in a Kritiba card, something like

that, you know, get down there and just, just build the energy. I love it. I love it. Yeah, I'm with you. I think it's probably going to be Adolfo getting the finish, but I feel strongly. That under 2 and a half parlayed with the Cody Brundage, two and a half. It's minus 176, but those are two pieces that I very much like a lot. Let's keep it rolling.

You mentioned at the beginning of the show, Wellington Termin, Jared Gooden. This will be right in the heat of battle of Georgia, Alabama, so I will have my full attention, laser focused in on this one. Right now, Wellington Termin is your favorite minus 192. Gooden coming back at plus 160. You know, tournament training with the light heavyweight champ up there at, uh, to share MMA. But it's, you know, who do you want here?

You want the guy that's three and three in the UFC or the guy that's one and four? It's a tough. Both coming off losses. I mean, I would want term in general. It seems more likely. But, you know, Jared Gooden's defense, you know, that loss that he's coming off of, to Carlson Harris and you might think why does that matter? Well, because you know, you know who else Carlton Harris beat?

Imbekasengane. That's right. Inbuqsangenei. Current PFL champion. So, you know, I mean, you're losing to the guy who beat the guy. That's just no shame in that loss. So I think Terman's going to win this fight. I think he's not performed as good of a fighter as he is, but I wouldn't trust him.

I would not trust this bet. It's good to have the night train back in the promotion, man. It's good to have them back. We needed it. You know who Jared Gooden also lost to? Not only Carlston Harris. Shavkat? Is that right?

Impa Kasangane. Oh, did he? Oh. Oh, yeah. Wow. His last two losses are Carlson Harris and Impa Kasunganin. I mean, so, I mean, the two guys, PFL champion and the guy who, you know, beat the PFL champion.

Man, I know everyone was saying, like, man, he got cut from the UFC, talking about Impa Kasangana. He got cut from the UFC in December of 2021. I mean, this guy was fighting in X-MMA-5 Southern Heat a year ago. Yeah, that's what's up. Like, he really came out of the mud. I mean, he was losing split decisions at Eagle FC in the year 2022. Look, XMMA is a lot of, a lot of big names are out there.

You know who headline that XMMA 5 card? Will Brooks and Luis Pena. That's right. Island Bob Ross. I mean, XMMA is a good home for former UFC fighters. It's pretty much exclusively what they cater to. Oh, yeah, Austin Hubbard, Julian. Look at any of their cards.

Julian, let me bang lane. Look at any of their cards. It's all, it's all those. Yeah. Hey, here, a bunch of dudes you maybe were on tough or fought five times in the UFC. Carl Williams. Carl Williams actually fought on it before going to the UFC. So shout out. I think it's just building prospects. That's what it is. Shout out. Last but not least, Jamie Lynn Horth is taking on Veronica Hardy and Jamie Lynn,

your favorite. Minus 142, Hardy coming back at plus 120. Yeah, I'm just flying blind here. The Hardee's came in studio for the old MMA hour last week. Great people. Great people. The confidence that they were oozing. I mean, the way that they were talking about this fight about how Veronica Hardy is just this new woman, this new fighter since the layoff. We kind of saw it in the Julianna Miller fight.

Does that prove it? Does that stamp it? No. definitely not but is there evidence that that that could be the case um i mean the the confidence that they showed while i was sitting there i was like yeah throw a unit on her next week she'll throw a unit on her why not so uh yeah little vibes bet what did you get her at plus 130 ronica hardy kind of that means we get to end the show in uh in a way befitting our georgia roots Oh, oh, oh.

Take of Veronica Hardy for similar reasons to you, honestly. Ted Hardy made a good case, man. He's like, she's going to beat the champ. I'm like, plus 130. I mean, fighters have never, and their teams have never said anything before a fight that didn't come to fruition. I know. Not one time have I heard a fighter say something that didn't end up happening in the fight. It's never happened.

But, yeah, for almost the exact same reasons. you know, when the PFL does their Atlanta stint, obviously Dan Hardy works with PFL. Veronica is there. She just hangs out backstage, like, in the media room because there's nothing else to do and we have food. And got to chat with her a bunch, cool person.

It's like, hell yeah, I'll support people I like. Why not? It's cool. Support your friends. It's always cooler, you know. Betting on someone like, if you've met them, if they follow you on Twitter or something, something like that.

Like, it's just always a little bit cooler when that's the case. So yeah, Veronica Hardy, shout out. And that's that. That's UFC Austin.

I'm loving that this is a crescendo card. Like, it gets better as we go along. It plays perfectly into our plans for Saturday evening. Plus, there's a good BKFC event this weekend, too? Oh,

yeah. Mike Perry, Eddie Alvarez. Isn't Mike Perry like a monster favorite? I have no idea, but talk about a banger. I didn't even look at the odds for that. He should be a favorite. I think he's like minus,

I think the last time I saw it was like minus 325. Let me take a look here. Minus 365. Minus 365 for old MP. I'm going to punch it in right here. Plus 290, Eddie Alvarez. Wow. Underground King.

Underground King. We're shooting from the hip fully this week. Plus 290? Why not? That is for the... It's a scrappy dude. That's for the violence belt. That is for the violence belt that was created on the program, the MMA hour.

Shout out to David Feldman for doing that. So yeah, it should be a violent affair. I can guarantee you it's going to be that. I don't make a lot of promises on this show or in general. I promise you that one. See, I was in old Manchester where Mike Perry served as the backup fighter. I met him. Nice guy.

genuinely nice guy could never bet against him now. It's a shame. Well, then I'll be the lone man backing Eddie Alvers. It'll be lovely. All right. Well, that's that. UFC Austin,

BKFC. He's on the Underground King. And hopefully it's a great night of fights. I think it's going to be. I think it's going to be. I'm really looking forward to it. I'm not going to lie to you. There's only one way.

It's a wonderful Saturday. I think that's going to be the way, though. And that's if, a hand is being raised and that hand is holding an SEC championship trophy. The dogs in action, four o'clock. If you're not a college football fan, but you want to just ride with us, it's going to be a tremendous game. Saturday is going to be a tremendous day championship Saturday. Great UFC card in front of a crowd. I mean, it's just easy. Where is Michigan, Iowa? Come on. We all know we're ready for Michigan, Iowa. Michigan is minus 3,000. Give me a break. I might just bet Iowa out of

principal one of uh one of my best friends went to iowa and for the last like five years i've gotten to join along on the on the ride i've adopted them as my second team it's always in forever the dogs but you know we never play each other the iowa football experience is just joy to be a part of uh the team total their first half team total three uh zero point five and it's plus and it's plus 100 yeah that that totally make sense. Unless it's a pick six, they're not scoring. I was going to say they're literally saying saying that there's no way I was going to score. I was not going to cross half field. I wonder what their team total for the whole game is. I mean, yeah, they're offensive.

Honestly, it probably is like three and a half. It's a total of Runder for it. It is dreadful. All right. Man, I'm looking at another book now. Mike Perry only minus 285 on this book. Maybe I'll throw them a little Barlaiski poo or something to support platinum. Either way, enjoy the fights on Saturday, enjoy the football if you partake. Next week, we're back with just, you know, we're honest on this program. It's a stinker, folks, and it's a 10 p.m. main card start. It's the toughest kind of stinker. I mean, you're going to put it up in stinker and you're going to start it at 10 p.m.

Like, give me a break. Like, it'd be way cooler if it was in Shanghai and it was at 4 a.m. I would like it more if it was in Shanghai and it was at 4 a.m. Plus, it's 4 a.m. Saturday morning. I mean, fuck, no. I'm napping by 10, and I already got all my bets done and fights in. Either way, we'll be here to break it down because we're here to break down every single card the UFC puts on.

But the week after that, UFC 296 stacked to the gills. Every single fight on the main card. Oh, a high. Every fight on the main card is a bang-er. Cannot wait for that card. Cannot wait for that card. We'll save our energy next week. It'll be easy, maybe 30 minutes in and out, but then $2.96.

It's going to be a blowout. We cannot wait for that card. See you next week. Go dogs. Go dogs. Love y'all. To the Vox Media Podcast Network.