MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Is Ilia Topuria The One To Finally End The Reign Of Alexander Volkanovski?

Episode Date: February 14, 2024

After a lackluster UFC Vegas 86 card, MMA's leading promotion returns with arguably the first good fight card of the year. UFC 298 is headlined by a featherweight title fight between Alexander Volkanovski and Ilia Topuria and a host of other marquee matchups, and the No Bets Barred boys are back with a full breakdown of all the fights. Conner Burks and Jed Meshew kick things off with a brief recap of last weekend's card and lamentations about the tough start to 2024 both men had had. Then it's on to UFC 298, with a deep dive into all the fights on the main card, and breakdowns of the rest of the action as well. Has age finally caught up to Alexander Volkanovski? Is Ilia Topuria the next big superstar? What's at stake between Robert Whittaker and Paulo Costa? Is Ian Machado Garry actually "The Future"? And what about Merab Dvalishili vs. Henry Cejudo? All this and more are discussed on this week's episode. Tune in for episode 78 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Support for this show comes from the Audible Original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the Machine. The Earth only has a few days left. Rosco Cudullian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the Audible Original Blockbuster. The Downloaded, it's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking,

What are you willing to lose to save the ones you love? The Downloaded 2. Ghosts in the Machine. Available now, only from Audible. Defenders and cybersecurity are always there when we need them. They should get a parade every time they block a novel threat and have streets. sandwiches and babies named in their honor. But most of all, they deserve AI cybersecurity that can stop novel threats before they become breaches across email, clouds, networks, and more.

DarkTrace is the cybersecurity defenders deserve and the one they need to defend beyond. Visit darktrace.com forward slash defenders for more information. On y'all, we are back another edition of No Betts Barred this time, UFC 290. hit to Anaheim and Alexander Volkanowski attempts to defend his featherweight title against Celia Teporia. Yeah, this might be my one of, if not the most, top three easily most anticipated fights of 2024. I mean, that's fair. Totally reasonable, right?

I don't think it quite gets there for me, but if it misses, it's just by a lot. At one point in time, I mean, this was certainly up there. but we've since had a few pretty big fights get announced, you know, some pretty big bangers coming along the way and some developments. So like, you know, I'm, I would rate, I mean, this is a great fight,

but I would rate the eventual DDP Israel, this and your fight. I've been wanting that fight for almost a year at this point. So like that's, that's now in play. That's very much above it. But I mean, this is a top fiver for sure. And no issue if this is number one for you.

I mean, there are, There's a lot of play for this one. Yeah, I think it's the stakes, really, that push it over the edge for me. I mean, big stakes. Like 72-ounce porterhouse stakes on the line here. Yeah, we're talking legacies. We're talking the, I mean, the shape of a division is on the line here. The shape of a nation.

Yeah. Multiple nations, perhaps even. Yeah, I'd say at least a few. At least a few are on the line. Can't wait for that. last week uh Vegas apex 86 yeah joy Piper let me down man needed a finish needed a win didn't get either got a losing week uh we were in the exact same boat I obviously you know watched you talk about it with talk you talk through it with aerial on the m a hour this week uh yet again Connor I did this really fun thing where I didn't

lose a unit but I lost less than one full unit I have done that every week of of the NBA gambling year thus far for a total of minus 1.46 units this year. It has been, every one of them too has come down to like, well, main event, can I get the main event right? And then Joey Piper and all of the things that I kind of wrote off when we were

talking was like, you know, I want to see some things out of Joe Piper, maybe some concern, but not really. You should be able to get there and do it. And then he didn't. And there we are.

Yeah, it was about three minutes, two minutes left in the third round and I like the idea it popped into my head I was like Jackermans is probably going to win this by decision and then like two minutes into the fourth round is when I fully was like Jackermanson's going to win this by decision and I'm going to have a losing week yeah I mean I'm similar this main event cost me I was doing great up until then or I was doing well and then last week it was the co-man too much exposure on on Moikano and Dover not going not going

the decision. And, yeah, I lost both those. I mean, the unders are just, they're not hitting for me this year, but we're going to keep, we're going to keep banging away at him. I can tell you that much. Shoot or shoot, baby. Shooter shoot. Yeah, I tried, I tried with my book to get on a live line at Hermanson in the third round because I, like, you was like, feel like I know this fight's going all of a sudden. Like, Hermanson is just landing the jab at will suddenly. It's like, okay, well, can I get on the live line? And then I could never get the there was never a live lineup that I could hit on. Yeah, I looked pre-fight too.

I saw a plus 700 for Jackermanston by decision. I was like, it's probably hedge. Then I didn't hedge. And I was like, why? Why did I not hedge? Two barletes finishing on it, and I still didn't hedge. But alas, I got a lot of action this week. Okay.

I got a pretty good amount of action. Every fight but one. Every fight but one. Do you have any idea? I'll give you one guess on what fight it is that I don't have. have action on. I'm going to guess Oban Elliott Val Woodburn. Incorrect. I can't. Oh, I can't wait to get into that one. I mean, my, I am licking my chops getting to that one. That is a one I'm really looking forward to breaking down.

I'm trying to count this out because I actually might have action on everything except for one. No, except two. I love that. I love that. I love that. I mean, the, the 2024 perennial losers thus far to this point get after it on 298. It feels like this is. feels like the first real card of the year. I mean, we could throw, you got to throw everything out the window. It was like a little real, but not all the way real. This is the first really full on. There's some fights I love on this. There are fights happening. I've taken a totally different tack to my normal betting strategy, not intentionally. It just sort of happened. I don't know how that's going to work, but we're going to find out, Connor. That is what we are going to do. So let's get right

into it. Let's jump into the main event of the evening Alexander Volkanowski. taking on Ilya to Poria, five rounds, featherweight division, titles on the line, legacies on the line, and what do you know it? There ain't nothing better in the world than looking at a fight like this with stakes like this. Alexander Volcanowski minus 130, Elia Toporia plus 110. It's not a full-on coin flip, but it's about as close as you can get to one when it comes to the odds. is Poria never lost. Volk never lost at Featherweight.

Is that good? I mean, is that good? You look at this guy Volk's resume and you're just like this. This guy wins a lot. This guy wins a lot. I mean, I know he lost twice last year. Obviously, I up a weight class against Islamakash. I don't have the best visuals coming off the 294 performance,

but like this dude wins a lot. And then, I mean, if you just look back at both of these guys last few performances at featherweight, They have just been unbelievable. I mean, the Iliate Toporia win against Josh Emmett, like I was like riding a high after it because it was just such an incredible performance. And then he made Bryce Mitchell just look like a chump in there. I mean, he just beat him pillowed a post until he eventually finished him. And then Volk, who were his last two?

Yair and Max? I think that was it. And those were just absolute dominant performances. I mean, even going back to the Korean zombie fight, he just looked on an entirely other level than the division. So I don't really know what's going to happen. I really don't. What I'm leaning on and I alluded to this on the show yesterday,

I really think this is going to just be some high, high level warfare. And I think it goes all five rounds. I think we get a decision out of this one. I played fight does not go to a decision. Or a fight does go to a decision plus 150. Volk, I mean, I know the head. kick. But that was his first time getting finished in 10 years. He has shown durability in the past. Six of his last nine went to a decision. Five of those were five rounders. Iliate Teporia,

numbers not really there as much. Dude gets a lot of finishes, but he just went five rounds with Josh Menneman. And I think this is by far as tough as test to date. I think it's going to be a war. That's a bold claim to be a great point. Bold claim to suggest that Alexander Volcanovsky is I'm a little challenge today, and I can't. I mean, you were going out on a limb there, sir. Yeah, so that's kind of my take. That's kind of my take. I think it's going to be a great fight.

I think it's going to be an unbelievable fight. I think both guys are going to have moments that are like, whoa, this is getting crazy. I feel like there's going to be some tides turning. And I think it goes five rounds. Did you rehash the Georgia parlay? I mean, I know we lost the first leg of it. I didn't. I did.

So you're just right. I mean, the listeners can't see you, but you're looking at a Georgia beanie right now. And that's, that's just for the spirit of it, not for the bets. Well,

we can get into that when we talk about our other Georgian on the card in Marab de Valishvili. If I was full supporting Teporia, I would be wearing, you know, a Georgian Spaniard hat, maybe a little German flag on there as well

because he was born in Germany. I just can't. I know I did it with the Georgian parlay, but that was such a beautiful gimmick that it warmed, my soul to bet it. But when you're talking about, I just, I can't get to the window again. I can't bet against Alexander Volcanovokinovsky twice.

Can't do it. I mean, fair enough. I do love your read on it because if your read goes down correctly, I think my read is going to be successful because I think Alexander Volcanozkin is going to win this fight, my man. Wow. I. Here I was thinking we were about to get on with like a nice little breakdown of his old man. the betting promo that he did.

That was a terrific bit from him. This is incredible. I mean, this is, we, I never thought I'd see the day. I thought we were going to get a breakdown of how terrible the acting was. They should have done this. They should have done that. And how you were slam in Ilya to Poria. Wow.

I mean, this is, this is incredible. People really can't change. I mean, you just never, you never know what you're going to get from this. I haven't changed. I've been on this track the whole time, my man. And it's, it won. That was a terrific work from, from Volkanovski and team.

Oh, so good, dude. That's the type of stuff that I've wanted from him for the last three years. When I have had my beef with him, it's not about him as a fighter. I've always said he's one of the best fist fighters I've ever seen. It's just a little bit about his approach. And it feels like, hey, went up twice to lightweight. We don't need to rehash all my thoughts there. There's a lot of wax down on that.

We don't need to get back into it. Feels like he maybe is in a better spot now coming back down. and he's he's sort of scratched that itch and he can be the kind of champion that I always hoped he would be. For this fight, I know a lot of people are on Ilya. I understand it.

I mean, if you listen to the man talk, he sells it. He makes me want to believe in him. Like, I mentioned this in, uh, in our Slack channel, uh, when Ilya was on the Emma hour.

I mean, this dude has that Connor McGregor energy around him, that he is just speaking truth into reality. and I think if he goes out here and does what he says he's going to do, I think he can be the biggest star in the sport not named Connor McGreg. I really do think that. I just don't think he can go out there and do what he says he's going to do as I kind of, I wanted to believe in it, and I certainly win vocals like, yeah, we're going to make the turnaround.

I was like, that seems like that might be a little bit fast. The more I've thought about it, the more tape I've watched, I think it's just a little too soon for Liottapporia. I think that he could have been the man in a year. year or two, but the, and he still could be, because I want to be real clear about this, the gap in his performance from Josh Emmett, that that performance against Josh Emmett was everything I sort of wanted to see to solidify him as the next dude, because the performance against Bryce Mitchell, obviously still very good, but a lot more holes there, a lot of recklessness in a way that wouldn't pan out against Wokanovski, paired all that back, looked phenomenal against Josh

Schmidt. I still do think he has some tendencies that could get, you know, worn down over time, but he just hasn't had that yet. Volcanovsky, one of the smartest fighters in, I mean, in the history of the sport, the way the tactical approach he brings, his ability to make adjustments mid-fight. I think people are taking the wrong lessons from the Islamakachev fight, which is not Volkanovsky's getting old or whatever. It's, Islamuchchiev's the best fighter in the world. And so, He is that good. It is not a reflection of Volk is too small. No, I think every time we've seen Volt come back and compete at featherweight,

like, yeah, your Rodriguez was last year. That was a pillar to post ass weapon of a dude who is a very, very good featherweight. I think Tuporia's really only real method to win here is to get the knockout. I just don't think anyone's really going to win a decision against Alexander Volcanovsky because of his ability to make adjustments, because of how well-rounded he is, because of his strategic eye and sort of knowing how to attack opponents via tape study,

I just don't think you can win three or five against him unless you are, is a machtov. And so Tupori is going to have to knock him out. And if the chin is damaged, if he's too old and he's a little slower and it's enough for Tepoira to catch him, I won't be shocked, but I'm just going to assume that that's not true.

I'm going to assume that Volk knows what he's doing, that he is prepared for this and that he's still got enough in the tank here to fend off the next generation of contender at least this one out so i'm taking alexander vorkovsky i i mean personally i wouldn't be upset if i was wrong but i do think he's going to get the win and i will say connor i made this bet but because it was so close i had to ask i went to the i went to the i went to the i asked chat cheap t after i had already plugged in my own back curious there. Chatchipt says Alexander Volkanovsky unleashes a thunderous combination that sends to Puria to the canvas in the fifth round. He's banking on the chatchipt says a fifth round

TKO for Alexander Volcanovsky after quite a little battle and that's the thing I didn't want to take I looked at Volk by decision it's like plus 275 or something. I I could see it like obviously I think that's maybe the most likely outcome if Volk wins, but too many, too many open ends. I've been getting burnt on prop bets. Dan Igay killed me last week. If I just bet Dan Igay straight instead of Igay by decision, I'd had a winning week. So I just went Volcanowski straight up, minus 120. Minus 120 on Alexander Volkinovsky against a first time title challenger.

Plus, I mean, yeah. So when you put it like that too, it's like how many times you get Alexander Volkanovsky against the dude whose best win is Josh Emmett, which is a good win. But like still, you know what I'm saying? Was Jaya Rodriguez's best one, Josh Emmett, as well? Well, I mean, technically the Brian Ortega win existed.

However, whatever your thoughts are on that. I actually credit him that, but it's obviously weird. Just forget Brian Ortega is like, oh, yeah, how weird that was A and B that, like Brian Ortega is like a top five featherweight. Yeah, because it's not good. He just like never fights either. But let me also say, Conno. that there's, I would be lying

if I didn't admit that this is a bit of an emotional hedge because I will be, I will shed zero tears if this bet fails. I will be there will be no sadness in Mudville, if it would be Tuporia knocks out Alexander Volcanovsky. So I got you coming and going.

So you said that like you won't be shocked if Teporia knocks out Volk. I wouldn't say that I would be shocked just with how skilled Teporia has looked in his last few fights. And I mean, his entire career, honestly. I mean, the dude just has, other than the Jai Herbert dropping him with the head kick, he's looked like damn near unbeatable. I wouldn't necessarily be shocked, but like it will be so crazy.

If this dude's because what you said, I believe at the beginning of the show is true, that if this guy goes out there and he's able to finish Bokonovsky or even just win clearly, or just when, just gets the belt, 15 and 0. just took out Alexander Volcanowski, the sky is the limit. There is no limit on this dude's stardom. I mean, he's just like... So it does not exist. The way that he speaks, the good-looking dude from Spain, Georgia,

repping it, trying to bring a card to Spain. Like, as you imagine, if he's able to pull that off. I mean, he's just got the it factor about him. And it'll just be crazy. I mean, it'll literally change the shape of the featherweight division. You were talking about everything is just opened up for one through eight. Like who like who does Volkinovsky fight next if he wins this fight? Mosar, Evluev.

Yeah, for sure. It's a boy of a fight. It could be, it could be Max Holloway, Rodriguez. It's Alexander Volcanovsky. Yes, yes, I'm sorry. There's going to be an immediate rematch. I'm sorry. Like, but I'm saying like if he wins and then he and then he defeats him again and like he does move on from Volcanowski with the belt.

Like, it's just like, like, Ely is not getting a rematch after this if he loses. That just isn't, that just isn't going to happen. Like, it's just like featherweight division in balance with this fight. It's amazing. It's what you dream of. It's what you ask for as an Rame fan. I just can't wait for it. It's what I've been wanting for some time.

So I am pretty pumped about this fight. And either way I win, either I'm going to make some money or I will be emotionally satisfied at the end of this. I'll be bummed for Volk. he loses, but, like, I still am a Toporia fan. Like, I'm a fan of his. Like, the, like, he's, he's really good for the sport in my opinion. So, uh, while I will be bummed for Volk, I will be like, this is exciting, uh, in the featherweight division. So if Volk wins, you think he stays at 145? He's been talking like he kind of doesn't, I'm getting sort of a vibe that this may just be the last one for him if he wins. It could be. Which I, again, I'm also fine with that if he wants to vacate,

I'm not fine with him saying I want to go back to lightweight and fight some dudes because then just fight most of love. But if he wants to vacate and go up, then yeah, hell yeah. It'd be fun as hell. Can't wait. We get answers come Saturday night. Let's move to the co-main event of the evening. Support for this show comes from the audible original, the downloaded two. Ghosts in the machine.

The Earth only has a few days left. Roscoe Cadulian and the rest of the Phoenix colony have to re-upload their minds. into the quantum computer, but a new threat has arisen that could destroy their stored consciousness forever. Listen to Oscar winner Brendan Fraser reprised his role as Rosco Cudulian in this follow-up to the audible original blockbuster with the downloaded. It's a thought-provoking sci-fi journey where identity, memory, and morality collide. Robert J. Sawyer does it again with this much-anticipated sequel that leaves you asking, What are you willing to lose to save the ones you live? Love. The downloaded two ghosts in the machine. Available now, only from Audible.

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That is moving more in the favor of Robert Whitaker. Costa plus 205. I think this is an awesome fight. It's always good when you see Paulo Costa actually getting the octagon. And that's not to say that he always pulls out of fights, but he just seldom gets there. I mean, we haven't seen him since August of 2022, October, 2021 before that. Sometimes he fights in the crowd?

Yeah, sure does. Yeah, so, I mean, like, we've seen in the last two and a half years, we've seen the guy twice. So it's always fun. I mean, he's a fairly exciting fighter, and then he's going up against Robert Whitaker, one of the best at 185. I don't have a play on this fight, though. No play.

Wow. No play. I'm curious to hear what you've got. So I've got, I have a play. This is the fight. This is the only fight in the card that you have no play on. I never, ever would have guessed that. I mean, at this point, my mind's halfway to the Val Woodburn fight.

I mean, I just like, I can't wait to talk about that. I mean, who needs to talk about Bobby Knuckles versus Paula Costa when you got Val Woodburn coming up fresh off the bow nickel demolition? That's what I'm saying? That's what I'm saying. I mean, I'll miss you. I'm itching. So I think there's a world where I probably shouldn't have taken the bet just because of the odds.

but I took Robert Whitaker straight up, but got him minus 2.25. I mean, lines moved a little bit, probably going to move a little more. I could see this closing around like, yeah, like minus 200 or something. Yeah, something in that range. I thought about parlaying him up with another kind of big number that I took a little later in the card. But I think this fight, unless Robert Whitaker is just cooked, which I don't think is the case. Like, you all know, I've been big on DDP for a long time. I thought that that win was more a DDP thing than a Robert Whitaker is kind of fading.

Bob has come out, you know, and said that I underestimated him. Maybe I didn't take him as seriously as I should have. And that, you know, kind of what happened. I doubt that he's doing that with Paulo Costa. And frankly, I kind of think he even could just stylistically. Paulo Costa is a very one-track fighter. He is the bull. He's the dude who's going to come for Chuck Rib Roasters,

swing big heavy shots. And Robert Whitaker style is just really well suited for that, you know, the bouncing karate. It's got better footwork, move on the outside cut angles, catch Paula Costa coming in. I hope this fight is more fun than I think it will be because I think that there is very much a world or Robert Whitaker just kind of, you know, taps him at distance and then maybe mixes in a couple takedowns and Policosta can never get going at all. But I think Robert Whitaker has a lot of advantages here.

And unless suddenly his chin is just starting to fade, which it could be. I mean, the punch that dropped him from DDP. DDP is an enormous, powerful dude, but, you know, it's not, it was not like the cleanest haymaker that kind of hurt him and put him in in a world of trouble. So even so, you know, Policost is not the most active. I'm taking Bobby Knuckles. This is actually, like, very similar to the main event. I like both these guys a lot. Very similar.

I like both these guys a lot, man. I'm, I'm cheering for both of them. I'll be happy with either outcome. It'd be cool. I mean, this would be a huge win for Paulo Costa. I mean, this would be pretty massive for him. I will say that I am, if I'm cheering for one side, I like Bobby Knuckles. I love Robert Whitaker.

How can you not? I would probably be rooting for Paulo Costa just because if Paula Costa beats Bob, then the potential for a Paulo Costa versus Jikas Du Plus C title fight and the absolute insanity that that would be. It's not like sign me up for that sort of fight. Like Rob's not getting back to a title shot. Like he'd need at least one more, probably two, given the way that fight with DDP went.

It would suck to see him lose because that would kind of be a demarcating line for his career, I would assume. But Paulo Costa versus DDP, UFC, South Africa. Hell yeah. I'm there. Yeah, I mean, a worst case scenario for Whitaker is if he loses this fight. then they book DDP Hizzy right after this for the middleweight title. And it's just like lost to both guys.

Now he's very far away from a type of shot. He could get Strickland in that scenario. Yeah, could just be like, hey, let's get Sean Strickland. Maybe I can get myself back in it. Yeah. But yeah, looking forward to that one. I mean, I think it's going to be a grand old time in the co-main event. Let's keep it rolling next up.

Another fight that could get interesting. That could get fun. Jeff Neal taking on Ian Machado. Gary. Right now, Gary minus 230, Jeff Neal plus 190. This one's going to be contentious, I feel like. These guys don't really like each other very much.

They're going to come in and get after. Who does like Ian Gary at this stage of M.A? Man has made some enemies. Not entirely sure why, honestly. I mean, to some extent, I do know, but it feels like he's made more enemies than he maybe deserves. Layla Machado, Gary, likes him.

His son likes him. Charles Olivera likes him. Post a picture of them. It feels like the whole shoot. Shoot the box. I'm like, a lot. I've met him and Gary a couple times.

He's coming to studio for the MMA. He was always really nice. He chopped it up about golfing. I like it. Yeah, I really don't have any issue with him. I mean, I don't like everything he says,

but like I... Of course, yeah, his cringgy-ass moments for sure. I mean, like the... He's a little performative, yeah. Yes, that's the perfect word for him. When he took to trading cards on the mountain in Brazil,

I was like, this is very, this is very performing. He's a little performative in a way. I like him, man. I mean, the cuck shit gets old. It gets old. I was just, I just, honestly, that might be part of why I like him. It's just as I was like, you guys recognize that this is insane, right? But anything to have to do with him at this point is just like, it's honestly, I never even

thought this was funny, but like now like the Dana White oiled up stuff has gone past the point of being like such a niche joke that it's now like too mainstream and it's not funny anymore. The cuck stuff is just like nothing, anything to do with him. It's brought up. It's just like, all right. The joke has played itself out. Of the many reasons to dislike Ian Gary, that's the dumbest one possible. But I definitely don't think Jeff Neal likes this guy because one thing that I didn't love that he and Gary did was throwing the mugshot on the, uh,

on the t-shirt and then playing dumb about it. It's not ideal. Afterward, uh, I mean, the dude is, is doing what he has to do to work. Is it way back from a bad moment, getting a DUI and you're going to throw the mugshot on the t-shirt. I get all's fair and love and war, but like, then to play dumb about it, just like, I don't know why he's so mad about it. That's the part that bothers me.

I actually don't care putting on the shirt. Like, it is not a, it is not a choice I would personally make, but that's sort of been my stance for kind of all this sort of discussion. The Kobe Covington stuff, too, like, just holistically. I'm actually pretty okay with, yeah, everything's fair. I don't think children are fair, like, because they are minors. Like, you shouldn't attack someone's kids. But everything else is totally fine. And, but you got to own it, right? Like, if you're going to say it, say it with your whole chest, not like, not like, oh, just, just kidding or whatever. Lean into it. So I right where to the press conference on Thursday?

Yeah. Like if you're going to be a pretty gristly. But yeah, enough of, you know, the outside stuff to the fight itself. I think it's going to be, I think it's going to be fireworks. This is similar to the main event in that I got a feeling in my plums, man. Just got a feeling about it. Blums. Feel like it's going to be, feel like it's going to be fun.

Neil, he's got big power. We've seen Gary wobbled before. We've also seen Gary show solid finishing capabilities. throughout his UFC career. I mean, the Magny one. I don't know how many people are taking that beating that Neil Magny took from Ian Gary last time out. Neil, seven of his 11 UFC fights have knocked on the distance, Gary, three of six.

I just got a feeling that this one's going to be fireworks. I think both dudes have finishing ability. I think someone gets got here. I took the under two and a half at plus 140, and that is my play on Ian Gary, Jeff Neal. I like that in part because I do think that if someone's going to get God, it's going to be Jeff Neal. I looked at Ian Gary inside the distance,

Ian Gary by TKO because inside the distance seems pretty likely that if he's going to get a finish, it's going to be a knockout. Almost jumped at the price because it's like plus 300 by K.O. But again, I'm still kind of smarten from the Dan Ege knockout, just obliterating my Dan Ege by. decision prop and i just took e and gary straight up at minus 210 because it's it's it's a close enough price for me to be comfortable with i i just think this is the truth um i think chafkaa rkmanov is the next walterweight champion unless you know the the rumors ero hollani putting it out there that

there's at least some discussion of humzaa jamaev uh facing leon edwards out of nowhere but if that happens whatever but i do think shavkat's kind of the guy and waiting at welterweight. But after him, I think Ian Gary has like future title challenger potential champion written all over him. And as good as Jeff Neal is, that's never been kind of his tier. He is a tier below that. IMG is still getting better and better.

Jeff Neal probably even going to come in maybe a little too heated to this one. So I just think a lot of things factor in for IMG and I'm taking him to get the dub. Yeah, there's like quite a few moments on this card that like could just flip the MMA world on its head. And Gary gets chinned by Jeff Neal. People are going to lose their tops. It's a really interesting fight card in that construction because that's absolutely true. At the same time you look at it, it's like, wow. So the co-main event, great fight.

Like I love the fight and things could shake out and be like really big. But also it's a pay-per-view that's just. just being headlined by Volk Toporia. There's not a second, there's not an under title fight for this. Like, there's a little bit of, a lot of fights that could have a lot of meaning, but also somehow maybe even feel like they're flying a little under the radar in some way. So, but it's awesome. Speaking of flying under the radar, this next one, fourth fight on the main card.

Exactly like this fight. Marad de Balasvili. Your number two ranked Banim weight, taking on Henry Zudor, the number three wing, Bandomweight in the world. Former double champion, by the way, coming off of the loss in a title fight to Marab's best friend and teammate Al Jermaine Sterling. And technically, Al Jamein's fighting in 145 now. This is number one versus number two in the bantamweight rankings by my metrics here. And when you look at it, Marab minus 218, Suhudo plus 180. I'm wearing the Georgian beanie for a reason. this is our Georgian brother.

He always has been from the time that I started this. I mean, I've been riding with Marab. If you just go back, the Aldo fight, I was in the trenches with Marab. When everyone was screaming, their hate towards the man

for putting on such a boring fight against Al-O. It's the relentlessness, the cardio. Also, just go back and watch the Yon fight. I mean, he looked so. good. He looked so good there. Actually, I might have been on Yon in that fight. I might have been on Yon. Look, look where it got me. Look where it got me playing traitor against our Georgian brother. Yeah, I got a ride with him. Rod the Belshvili. We are opposed, Mr. Berks, because I'm riding

with Henry Sehudo. I don't feel great about it because Henry Suhudo is not my favorite person in the MMA space. In a five-round fight, I would take Marab six days out of, I'm a out of the week, like there would be absolutely no question in my mind. Five rounds favors him. Three rounds, I think this gets real frisky because Marab looked amazing in Spirion, but Marab, the straw that stirs the drink for Marab is still the wrestling. And, you know, we saw against Aldo. He doesn't necessarily have to get the takedowns if he can just push against the cage,

hold you, kind of do whatever work you can, dictate the terms. I don't know if you know this, Connor. Henry Sehudo, he can wrestle. just a little bit, just like a little gold medal Olympian bit of wrestling. I don't think Marab's going to have a ton of success with that, particularly because Aljo had some success. I mean, not a ton. He was like four for 20 or something on takedowns.

But the way they wrestle, the way Marab and Aljo wrestle so different, Aljo, an enormous physical specimen, Marab has even talked about making 125 at points. I just don't think he's going to be able to get his. sort of pressure chain wrestling going effectively. And it's going to be a striking bout. And Henry Suhudo, one, man loves a headbutt, just one of the sneakiest headbutters in all of him in May with that big old noggin of his. Ruffs never seem to catch it.

But also, he's just like a pretty good striker at this point in his game. I think that on the feet this fight is 50-50, maybe even a touch advantage towards Sehudo. And so I'm getting Suu to a plus 180 for a fight that I think is pretty good. close to dead even. Again, five rounds, I would absolutely be on the inverse. But three rounds, give me plus 180 on Henry Suhudo for the value. Two things I want to throw out to you.

One, Aldo and Jan. Just throwing it out there, just statistically speaking. You know, no opinions here, just fact base. Better take down defense percentages than Henry Suhudo. Two great defensive wrestlers. look, numbers don't tell the story. I'm going to go ahead and tell you

that Henry Suhudo is a better wrestler than either of those gentlemen. Better wrestler, I understand. Algeman Sterling, four takedowns? On how many attempts? Do you have that in front of you? 15. But if Algeman Sterling went for 15 attempts and got four of them,

when Marab attempts 60 over the course of the three rounds, I mean, that's, I'm doing the math here, that's like 20 takedowns. That's like 16 takedowns. I don't think he's going to attempt 60 over 15 minutes. I'm just saying, I mean, I think last time it was a takedown attempt every 30 seconds against Jan. So, I mean, we'll do the math 15.

So he's going to get like 30 takedown attempts in there. So let's double it up. He's going to get eight takedowns. That's my guess here. I mean, it's just the guy is relentless. I would love for draft kings or somebody to have an over under number on takedowns completed because I I would smash the under. I want an over under on take down attempts.

On attempts, I would smash the over because he's going to get stuffed and he's going to keep shooting and shooting and smash the over on attempts and smash the under on completions. Just throwing those things out for you. Number two, Henry Suhudo is sitting at plus 325 to win by decision. That's probably a better bet. That's something that really tempted. That's something that really tempted me. I'm not going to lie. I like Marab and I, I'm going to say Marab wins this fight, but the difference between,

I played Marab at minus 166. I mean, Marab is also by decision minus 115. Henry plus 325. I mean, I think if you are taking Marab, it should be by decision. Like there is, you could convince me Henry gets him out of there. I think it's deeply unlikely. and honestly, like I said, it's a better bet. If I was just betting the smartest bets possible,

and honestly, I might actually just add this bet in right now. What's the over? Two and a half? The over two and a half is minus three hundred. Is what? Minus 300? I'm saying minus 320, but that's a... Oh, I'm drafting sportsbook right now.

Yeah. Fight goes a distance minus 275. That is... That feels like a thing that's... This fight just seems extremely likely to go to the job. judge's scorecards. Might, maybe it would be better to bet the Sohudo, you know,

plus three and a half on the points. Because I do just think this fight's going to end up being like really close, a lot of clenching, you know, a classic Mara Abd Vález-Svili fight. It's going to look like the Jose Aldo fight, except for I think Sohudo will have a little more success getting off the cage. Speaking of that,

what is Henry Sehudo by the points, plus three and a half? when I thought you were the one oh by the points I do not know plus three and a half is that minus one really not really played marab honestly like if I had not already played marab you you can get a better number on henry suhito plus three and a half than you can on marab money line that feels this feels like a fight that's going to a decision seems really really likely that decision prop minus 115 marab henry plus 325 i just that's a big gap that's a big gap it's a big gap in a fight that i strongly believe will come down to one round so i forgot to say uh earlier i took the over one and

a half as well as if i goes the decision i took the over one and a half in the in the main event as a parlay piece uh and then i continue the sebrick special added the volus felix al hivoudo minus 550 to that and that actually has two more legs to it. We will get into those later. I mean, Marab, 11 straight over the one and a half. Henry, 12 was the last 15 over the 1.5. Hopefully, knock on wood, feels likely. Feels like that could happen.

All right. Let's go to the last fight on the main card. Anthony Hernandez, Fluffy, taking on Roman Coppelov. Right now, Hernandez, you favorite at minus 238, copulov plus 195. is Anthony Hernandez middleweight Marab. I've never considered it under that construction, but I get, it's not a bad comp. Just want to throw it out there.

I remember Rob lands 6.55 takedowns per 15 minutes. Fluffy land 6.79 takedowns per 15 minutes, though. Fluffy is very accurate. He's shooting and he lands a lot, 58%. It's like second best in middleweight history. and for that reason. Great fight. Both dudes coming in on four fight win streaks.

I am going to take Flaviernanez. I think he gets the grappling going. And I think he wears on Koppelov. Subs live. I could see a ground and pound. I think it's a great fight. I think Hernandez gets it done. I mean, if he's the middleweight Marab,

then I'm just anti-Morop this week. I'm on Koppelov. I was going to say, well, if he's the middleweight Marab, Coppelov's the middleweight Marab. Coppelov is the middleweight Marab. middleweight Jose Al, though, because he's got like a 92% takedown. He's an unbelievably strong defensive wrestler. Now, granted, that has not come against the best opposition in the world.

I mean, certainly Fluffy has much better opponents on the resume. But look, Romicoploff is here, stuff takedowns and Chuck Haymakers. And that's a man after my own heart, you know. Just going to get in there, get crimey with it. Shove you off, throw a big haymaker. Yeah. And again, I'm getting plus one. 80 on him.

So my breakdown is pretty, honestly, pretty simple to the previous fight, except for, well, and fluffy, I mean, absolutely, he's shown some durability. But we've also seen him get kind of God, he got run over by Kevin Holland, et cetera. So Roma Coppolaev hits real hard. I feel more confident Coppolaov can get a finish than I do, so Hudo can. and I'm getting the same price for a similar style fight. So I took it. All right.

I love it. You just got to hit one in your profit. I got to hit both. If I miss one, then I'm in the red there. But let's move on to the prelims first up, or I guess the feature prelim of the evening. Amanda Lemoche taking on McKenzie Dern.

Right now you can have Lemosch minus 130, Dern plus 110. What are you doing on this fight? where are you going? This is the worst bet I've ever made. I do it every time. Yeah. I cannot quit McKinsey Dern for reasons that boggle my mind.

I don't know why I can't just be like in my head the last time we did this, Connor, we were just like, all right, McKinsey Dern, Jessica and Drodge. Jessica and Drogh has been doing real bad lately. Terrible. Maybe McKinsey Dern can finally like get something going. good against Angela Hill. She looked like she maybe had finally figured out how to actually wrestle against Angela Hill.

Yeah. Yeah, Jesse and Josh just absolutely ran over her. Four knockdowns. I cannot, cannot quit her, though, because she has such an A plus skill, because she, if she gets the fight to her world, it is so bad for her opponents. And Amanda Limos, she's not a defensive wrestling standout. I mean, Jan Jan Janan just, I won that fight by just taking her down a bunch. You know, just like, all right, I'm going to take you down and sit on you.

Super durable. And this is a dumb bet, particularly because, you know, Darn's coming in short notice. But I can't quit her. I'm going to keep just firing money after her and lighting it in the incinerator, you know, every four months when she competes. But that's where I'm at. The Wiley fight with Lema, she's talking about. Riley, yeah.

Sorry, not Janjan. Well, that's all right. Janjanan took care of McKenzie Dern. I actually, I had the strongest, the strongest feeling that this is where you were going to be. You were going to be on McKenzie Dern because it almost feels like it's just a tradition on this podcast. It is. It is. It's on McKenzie Dern.

And I'm on whoever she's fighting. It's been working out better for you than for me. It's been working out, man. And it's almost been working out like really well. I mean, Jessica Andraj, big dog last time. Angela Hill, obviously, that was an incredible performance by McKenzie Dern. Jan Jan, Big Dog in that one. Tisha Torres.

I mean, it's Dern. Ders should have beaten Yon John. I still don't understand how you get mounted and don't throw a single punch. That's what I was going to say. You were like when McKenzie Dern gets it to her world, like it's a real big problem for opponents. I agree. Like she's unbelievable. But like she's gotten it to her world in several of.

these last five fights and she has not gotten a submission in any of them. She's had opportunities and she hasn't been able to do it. She's so many opportunities got her. Listen, and I know Lemos got run over by Wiley Zhang, the best one 115 are in the world unequivocally. There were a lot of moments where it looked like Lemos was going to get subbed and she was able to get out of it. I think she can avoid a submission here.

And on the feet, I think there's a gap. I really do. I know she looks good against Angela Hill, but like I think Amanda Lemo, she's, is much more skilled on the feet to McKenzie Dern. Listen, man, I was on Marina Rodriguez. I was on Tisha Torres. I was on Janjohn, I was on Angela Hill, and I was on Jessica Andrage.

I ain't stopping now. I'm on Amanda Lemos. I think she bounces back after that tough outing against Wiley Jean. You know what's going to happen, Connor? Dern's going to get a takedown in the first 12 seconds. She's going to get to mount. She's going to refuse to punch limos for four minutes and 35 seconds. she's going to keep trying to like set up some sort of a choke

Lemmo, she's just not going to get choked. It's going to be a 10-8 round. Then they're going to restart on the feet. Dern's going to be gassed and Lemo she's going to tee off on her for the next 10 and win a split decision. I mean, that sounds like a plan. That sounds like a plan. I know, dude, listen, I know stats don't tell stories of the fights,

but I'm just looking at the stats from the Tisha Torres fight, which just have to say, watching it live, I was like, oh, Tichita Tcha was won that for sure. split decision win by McKinsey Dern. I mean, like round one, she outstrikes her. Round three, she like doubles her up on strikes. And then round two was close. I don't know.

I don't know. I mean, there might be a judging factor there for old McKenzie Dern. But either way, I'm willing to die. I die on my shield here. I mean, die by the sword, live by the sword. I'm not going to stop fading McKinsey Dern. And it's nothing against them. You shouldn't. You shouldn't.

I should stop, but I can't. Just become a tradition. Support for this show comes from Chase. If you're a fan of women's sports, you're always looking for ways to get closer to the action. And your Chase card can get you exactly that. With a Chase card, you can experience more. That means access to presales, preferred seating, and more savings.

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Stock up because they will sell out. Get up to 52% off when you go to g-r-un-s.co and use the code Vox. So that's that fight. Let's keep it rolling next up. Three in a row we are opposite on. A lot of dissension here. You're on the dog on all of them, so you are the smarter man. I can tell you that much.

I'm McKinsey, Duren. I am not this part of it. Next up, Marcus Ruggiero, the Lima, taking on Justin Tofa. This is just your definition of a slobber knocker. Right now, DeLima minus 142, Tafa coming back at plus 120. You playing the over here? We're not, Connor, and I've decided, I thought about it. Because, you know, heavyweight over is they back. I mean, they've been back this year.

But I think we maybe made some mistakes with Heavyweight Over. and flyweight hunters last year is not recognizing that there are enemies of the state and that when enemies of the state, they are excommunicated from the nation and thus cannot be party to any gambling. They're just, it's a no-fly zone. And I got to tell you, in this one, both are Gero Delima and Justin Taffa are enemies of heavyweight over nation. I mean, Tava randomly had like a decision, but then the rest of it is basically first

from finishes one way or the other. And Roger DeLima, the same, like 11 of his 17 in the UFC art finished in the first round. These dudes, I mean, you're not getting a good price at it, but betting this fight to finish in round one is probably the best bet you can make on it. This is one of the two fights I do not have a wager on, though. Okay. I agree with you. I think this is Slobberknocker. I think it probably ends early.

feels like probably someone's going to get K. owed in the first three minutes. But here's my thoughts here. Going into the Derek Lewis fight, Marcos Roger de Lima had never been knocked down or knocked out in 16 prior UFC fights. That was his 17th. I don't view him as chinny, especially doing that at the UFC level, especially doing

that in the heavyweight division is very tough. On top of that, he is three and one when it goes to a decision in his UFC career, Marcos Ruggiero de Lima, that is. Taffa really, like, all he has to offer is to stand in bank. Like, he's not taking this to the ground. Marcus Ruggiero del Lima can also do that. Can take it to the ground. So I feel like when, also another little stat here, when fights get extended,

Marcus Ruggiero de Lima almost always has a takedown and his three decision wins, which are his last three fights to go to decision. He has three takedowns in each of them. I think he knows what the game plan is for Justin Taffa. I think he comes in here. I think he does mix in the takedowns. Don't think that means it gets extended. I think that means I'm going to zig while some say K-O.

And I'm going to zag on over to that subline. Don't do it. Don't do it to yourself. The Lima by submission plus 600. Don't do it to yourself, Connor. Because I'm going to put in a bet right now as we're talking. Because you sold, I mean, that's a compelling argument. but instead of taking a submission prop that you have a zero percent success rate on

through our, you know, 80 episodes of this show, looking at it right now, RDL inside the distance is plus 120. Yeah. That, you know, that just covers all your bases. Your explanation, your breakdown was perfect. RDRL inside the distance, I'm going to add that to the slate plus 120. All right.

I love it. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love it. I love it. You can't keep a 0% percent percentile rating if you don't

keep firing off shots. And that's what you got to do. Oh, I guess if you don't, you can't. I'll just say Kyle Shanahan's keeping a 0% rating in Super Bowls. I'm the Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan's Super Bowl is my submission. One day I'll get one. One day I'll get one.

And plus 600. He's got a couple in the UFC. I just, if I'm, if I'm, if I see the Lima this week by chance, I won't be in Anaheim at all. So the chances of that are zero. But if I see them likely, I'm going to pull up on them and be like, Game plan's easy here, man. Just get the takedown.

Find the neck. Get the suck. I'll give you 5% of my winnings. 100% take down defense from Justin Taffa. 100%. How many people have attempted? I have no idea, but I just looked at the stats page 100%. I'm going to check.

Yeah, Justin Taffa. Yes, the thwartor of all takedowns, Justin Taffa. No one succeeds. None against Jorgon de Castro. No attempts in this second fight. Carlos Filippe. Carlos Filippe, O for one. Carlos Philippe over one.

Jared van dera None. Harry Huntsucker, O for one. That's over two. Parker Porter O for O. Austin Lane O'Fer O. Austin Lane,

O for O'Fer O. So he's stuffed two takedowns. From Harry Hunsucker and Carlos Philippe. Speaking of Jared Van dera... That is true. Speaking of Jared Vandera, I shed a tear this past weekend.

Because I don't know if you saw this. But, Jared Vandera got his first submission win of his career, and we missed out on it. He picks up a submission win in Fierce Fighting Championship, an absolute beauty of a guillotine, taps out Malifio. I mean, he jumps to like an absolute stud. But the Jared Vandera sub-props finally hit if somehow you were betting on fierce fighting championship. Good. Putting that black belt to use after all this time.

Finally. The guy gave me an ulcer in my fucking stomach. Okay, I will give him some credit. That was his fourth win by submission. I'm sorry. But first one in a long time. In a hot minute. In a hot minute, man. Ankle lock back in 17 against Idris Wasi. That was his last one. All right. Didn't expect to talk that long on that fight, but let's keep it rolling. Next up, Rina Nakamura taking on tough appearance.

maker Carlos Vera. That is about the only way to describe them. And right now you can get Renanakamura for the short price of minus 1100. Carlos Vera coming back at plus 700. Can you explain this was the tough you did tough hang on, right? It sure was. The chair was, yeah. So Vera was one of the prospects, right?

I'm guessing. It was 36 year old. prospect okay all right just making sure I had that right and yeah he was he got beat by the champion

the champion sure yes but it was two up two down first round first round knockout for him like essentially like he got bounced in the first round of tough the first you know the first fight it was a two round decision loss to one Brad Katona that's champion I mean on the other side of the bracket

maybe he's in the finals maybe in the final but he still wouldn't have won So, like, I'm just not super positive as to why he's here. Speaking of him still wouldn't have won. He's taking on Reni Nakamura. Yeah, undefeated bronze medalist at the wrestling World Cup. You 23 champion, I want to, like, gold medalists? That's correct.

You 23 champion. 28 years old. Legitimate world-class wrestling. World-class wrestling. 28 years old at 135, close around 36 at 135. I think Rini Nakamura is going to win. Bolt. He's for sure going to win.

I don't have any bets on him, but he's for sure going to win this fist fight. I am actually on the under two and a half. I want minus 165 for it. Rinaakamora has shown finishing capability. Carlos Vera, I know. Never been knocked out, but I think a submission is very live for Rina.

Knockout obviously is too. Ecuadorians are tough though, bro. Sure is. Sure is. But I think he takes this to the mess. mat and he takes it to the mat pretty quickly and then i think a submission or i or i finish a lot of yeah if i if he makes it to a decision i mean that's a win for him that's a win for him i think that is for sure if he sees the judge's cards that under two and a half minus 165 let's keep it rolling

next up light light heavyweight bout ming yang zong taking on brenson ribero right now you can get zong minus 130 ribero plus 110 uh i mean i love this fight I absolutely love this fight. I mean, what a fucking fight this is. Why it's on a pay-per-view? I mean, I'm not entirely sure, but it's a thing of beauty. I mean, this is just too big old, muscular, light heavy weights, just gargantuan's getting in there. And they know how to do one thing.

They know how to finish people. Chuck them. And they know how to get finished. Berrault 21 professional fights. 20 have not seen the scorecards. I know one was a no contest. Zhang 22 professional fights. 21 have not seen the scorecards.

13 straight, by the way, for old Ming Yang ending in round one. I feel like this one's probably not going to go along. But I think it's going to be fun. I think it's going to be fun. You got a bet? This is definitely not going to go long. I do have a bet, and it ties in with another one,

so I'll just do them both here. Honestly, like if I'm being totally reasonable hurt person, I think Ming Yang's probably going to win this. But I have parley... Hard to have confidence. I've parlayed Brinson Hibetto with Danny Barlow. We'll talk... You'll talk about Danny Barlow coming up.

The next fight up, the early prelims made. But I've done this for a very simple reason. I've been doing it a little bit a lot lately. I did it last weekend. These are two dudes off the most recent contender series. And conveniently, they were both in the same tier of my... post-contender series breakdown. That tier was named the defense's optional category.

There were three gentlemen that I put in that tier. Two of them are fighting on this card. It just sort of ended up working out that way, but the breakdown, the name says it all. They are dudes who were deeply fun. Those two and Zach Reese. Great offensive fighters have not really learned about self-preservation. and so you're going to put two of those dudes in the same tier.

I'm going to parlay him up. There's just no chance I'm not. So even though I think there's a really good chance Ming-Chance Ming-Ga-Wins this just because how hitable Heverro is, I'm taking him, I'm pairing him up with Danny Barlow in a parlay because that's the gimmick I live for. Supporting my guys work last week. Carlos Pretis Pelagiochi.

Yeah, me, yeah. I mean, pulled it from the fire there. John is pretty hitable too, I just have to say. He's maybe more defensively sound than Habero, but not by much. Not by a ton, yeah. Not by a ton, man. I mean, both these people. Lans first is winning.

It's just however that happens. Yeah. John, six straight ending by way of K.O. Hebero, five straight. I mean, I think this is just going to be standing bang. So I actually have three bets on this fight. Three. On Bed Rivers right now.

That's just good gambling. Great gambling. Fight ends by KO minus 205. Okay, I like that bet. That's a good bet. That's a good bet. Rivers. Hopefully we don't get the club and sub.

Hopefully that would be the worst outcome. I took Habero, K.O. K.O. Round 1 plus 600. I really. Also a good bet. Actually, a good bet. When you got two gigantic dudes getting in there that are just going to chuck them until someone falls, it's essentially a coin flip the odds kind of reflect that.

I think it's probably going to end in round one, too. So it's a good value play. Flip the coin. I think it's going to end by Kio. I think it ends in round one. So there you go. Habera was like plus 600. John was like plus 250. So it's just like it's just like the Suhudo Marab by decision earlier. Lastly, parley piece under the two and a half minus 600. Yeah. Under two and a half there. Under two and a half in the heavyweight fight over one and a half in Maraub, over one and a half in Volk, that's the prop parlay this week, plus 127. four-leg parlay, what could possibly go wrong? I don't know. Four legs have never missed. Four legs have never missed in the history of ever.

Let's keep it rolling. It's the sturdiest form. Sturdiest. I mean, you need four legs to build a house. That's it. Next up, your guy, Danny Barlow. Taking on Josh Quinlan, seven and over, six and one. Gotta love it.

Quinlan, plus 160. Barlow, minus 192. Yeah, you're. your take is Barlow's going to win? My take is Barlow is going to win in the exact same way Burdenson and Barrow does. He's going to come out, going to throw a lot of offense, not going to care it all about his chin,

and hopefully that won't come to bite him in the ass. All right, speaking about getting bit in the ass, I played Josh Quinlan against Trey Waters and he had nothing for him. He was just, his arms were not long enough to fight Trey Waters. Who has much for Trey Waters? I mean, the esteem. Like six, eight at the in welterweight? He's just a gigantic person.

the esteemed Tray Waters. He's got Von Fluid by Gabriel Bonfee. Was that last time out? No, I was in Contender Series. That was great. That was great. Yeah, so he did me dirty there, but he does it.

He hits hard, man, and like that could come to bite Danny in the ass, like you said, especially because he's not a good, but Danny does have an eight-inch reach advantage, and I think he hits way harder than Trey Waters. What I did here, another one, fight ends by K. minus 136. Left hand to God, that is Mr. Danny Barlow. Four of his last five wins by K.O.

Quinlan, four of his last five wins by K.O. I'm with you. I think they chuck them. Think someone falls. Seems the most likely outcome here. Next up. Good prelims. Like this is good prelim action right here.

I think we're going to get some exciting stuff on these prelims. Next up. I mean, next up you get the one you've been waiting for. Fight of the night, Vowell Woodburn, taking on Obin. Elliot right now. your favorite obi and ellie it just keeps getting bigger minus 310 val woodburn plus 250 um so today's tuesday we're recording this on tuesday if you're listening to this on wednesday what would that make it wednesday that would make it wednesday february the 14th it's

valentine's day valentine's day and you're going to tell me wow The week of Valentine's Day? Wow. The week of Valentine's Day, a man, a man by the name of Valentine Woodburn is going at plus 260. Wow. Is that what you're telling me? The week of St. Valentine's Day and Mr. Valentine Woodburn just happens to be making

his way to the octagon as a plus 260 underdog against Oban Elliott, who's a debutante. Against Oban Elliott, if you go on his Instagram, he's just taken off. and he just barely took off to the States, 15 plus hour flight. He still got to cut down the old 170? Listen, man. I'm not a man of superstition. I don't believe in anything too crazy, but you put Valentine Woodburn on Valentine's Day week.

It's like putting Alex Marono on Shark Week. Things happen. Things happen. And for that reason, Val Woodburn Moneyline plus 260. This is elite Handicapping. I want this to be... That's what they're making the big bucks for.

This is an example of my growth right here, Connor. My growth as a person because I had an option bet here that I was going to pitch to because I've got the double contender series thing. Oban Elliott, also in the most recent series of contenders series, was not in the same tier.

I put them into a special teamer. Last week, I opted not to include Hyder Emile in the contender series parley because he was in a different tier than Carlos Prezest and Belagiochi was. Obviously, Hyder Emil had one of the better performances on that card

would have paid off, but I was like, you know, do I go to the well? Do I learn from last week and say, all right, we'll make it a three-leggar or not? But now,

no chance. I mean, I'm not going to get shark-weaked again. You can't do it, dude. There's no more I'm going to get shark week to get. Listen, man, Oben Elliott is on Cupid watch because he's about to get an arrow sent right his way. And that's going to be in the form of Valintyne Woodburn's right hand. Yeah, I mean.

I didn't even consider this. Thank you for saving me the money. Easy's by the week. Easy's by the week. In all honesty, I don't know about Oben Elliott minus three ton. I mean, it's not. I mean, particularly. under these circumstances.

Yeah, I don't know about that. I don't know about that. So, yeah. Doubly, we're riding the powers of St. Valentine with Valentine Woodburn. And that's that. That's that. Can't wait for that one. Let's finish it off.

Flyweight fight. Women's flyweight, Andrea Lee, taking on Miranda Maverick. Right now, Miranda Maverick minus 192, Andrew Lee, plus 160. Got anything here? I do. So, Connor, it's been a theme, been rocking this theme, going to continue to rock this theme, basically all year long. But I'm taking overs in women's fights because the math says that that is good. If you look at the trends from last year, I have taken the over one and a half in this Andrea Lee Miranda Maverick fight.

I mean, it's a big price. That one's minus 600. Dern Limosh is over one and a half minus 205. It's not bad. So it gets a little better. That parley's up at minus 136. I mean, I'd be pretty surprised if Lee Mavergans faster than that. They both just have a long history of fighting for more than seven and a half minutes.

But that's where I'm at. All right. I don't mind that. I don't mind that. What I'm going to go with... Nonviolence. Just a little nonviolence. A lot of add odds on this card for us, man.

A lot of at odds. You're taking the underwis. and a half? No, but I am playing violence. I am playing violence. And I'm going to take Miranda Maverick to win inside the distance. Plus 400. I know Andrea Lee, she's durable.

Don't believe she's been finished in her UFC career. But I don't think she's been fighting the most elite finishers. I mean, Viviana Arrucho, Roxanne Monteferey. I don't think she's fighting. You know, I know Natalia Silva of the likes, but Miranda Maverick, three of her five wins in the UFC coming by way of finish. I think the takedowns are going to be there for her. I know she's not knocking anybody out, but maybe some ground and pound into a submission.

I don't think it's out of the question. I plus 400 win a majority of her UFC wins have come by way of finish. Worth a little poke for me. Just worth a little poke. As long as it happens at the eight minute mark, I'm fine with that. I'd love that. That'd be a little double-hitter for the boys. I'm tend to add in on Robert Whitaker just so I have something on every fight.

I think that it's fine to not have something. Yeah. Whitaker by points plus 130? Because also you've got the watch party. Maybe there's a bet coming down the watch party pipeline for you. You never know. You never know. But that is that.

That is UFC 298. A lot of action down for your boy. A lot of action. I got Miranda Maverick inside the distance. Val Woodburn money line. Valentine Woodburn. I believe is the name. Barlow Quinlan fight ends by K.O., Jean-Rabero fight ends by K.O.Rabero, K.O., round one. Nakamura, Vera under two and a half.

Marcos Rojero-Delima by sub. Amanda Lemoche, Mli, Maliu, Maneh, Mali, Maneh. Gary Neal under two and a half. Volcanowski-Tuporia fight goes the distance. And then that prop parlay, I talked about, Jean-Rabreau under two and a half, DeLamatov, under two and a half. DeVolishvili Suhudo, over one and a half. Volcanovsky Toporia, over one and a half that pays out at plus 127. Those are the plays. Boy, cannot wait for this card. Cannot wait.

I have mostly straight action, which is terrific. I've got the over one and a half parlay with Dern Limosch, Maverick Lee. I've got a parlay with, you know, my contender series, defense optional boys, Brinson Humbero and Denny Barlow. The only prop play I have other than the overparlay is I added Marco Sturgo. Gereo Delima inside the distance. On this pot, real-time edition. And then I'm on Dern, Kaiphalov, Sehudo, Gary, Whitaker, and Volk, all straight up.

Love it. Love it. That is that. That is UFC 298. Can't wait for this one. We are back next week. UFC Mexico City, Brandon Roy Vowl, taking on. Good fight cards, Connor, back to back.

I absolutely love it. Fight cards in front of crowds in front of cultural cities, Mexico City. week. And then let's not talk about the week after that. Let's not talk about March. Do not need to do that. Brandon Moreno, Brandon Roy Val,

battle the Brandons at flyweight. Who gets it done? Are we going to be playing the under? I think so. I think so. But we'll get into that next week. Enjoy 298. See you.

Love y'all. To the Vox Media Podcast Network. Okay. Only 10 more presents to wrap. You're almost at the finish line. But first? There, the last one. Enjoy a Coca-Cola for a pause that refreshes.