MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Is It Do Or Die For Henry Cejudo Against Song Yadong At UFC Seattle?

Episode Date: February 19, 2025

On Saturday, the UFC returns to Seattle for the first time in 12 years with a fight card headlined by a bantamweight bout between former champion Henry Cejudo and Song Yadong. It's a card that's been decimated by late-notice changes, but nevertheless, No Bets Barred is back to break it all down. This week, host Jed Meshew is joined once again by the Action Network's Billy Ward to dive into the fights. Topics discussed include whether this is do or die for Cejudo against Song, if Anthony Hernandez is a safe bet in his rematch with Brendan Allen, which of Jed's favorite prospects are most likely to disappoint him, the latest update on The Climb, and more. Tune in for episode 117 of No Bets Barred. Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Follow Billy Ward: @Psychoward586 Subscribe to MMA Fighting Check out our full video catalog Like MMA Fighting on Facebook Follow on Twitter Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Service fees exclusions in terms apply. You're listening to the Vox Media Podcast Network. What is up, y'all? We are back for another edition of No Betts Bard. And this week we are talking UFC Seattle. And is right, we are going back to the Pacific Northwest for the first time and a hot minute for the UFC. And fresh off the heels of a deeply, deeply forgettable card that, frankly, I would like to forget.

Because in due so hot on UFC Vegas 101, and so we will only briefly discuss that. But first, let me introduce my co-host for this week. You know him, you love him. He's an old hat at this point. Been around the block for us many a time. The Action Networks, Billy Ward, Billy, how you doing? And how was your UFC Vegas 102?

Yeah, forgettable was a good word. I made like between half and one unit of profit. So cool. You know, it's always better to make money than lose money. But not one. I'm going to be bragging about or really thinking too much about moving forward. Honestly, the fights weren't as bad, though, as I thought that would be. It was mostly entertaining, just not anything any of us really cared about, I think, going

forward. Yeah, it's one of those things, right, where the fights weren't terrible. If you, going into the event, I called it an apple picking card, if you just had other things to do with your family man, Billy, you know, you've got other obligations. You need to spend more time with your family instead of every set of. Saturday night watching fights. This was a weekend to take off. If you had nothing to do, it was fine.

But this will be the last time anybody talks about that card is this podcast today. And I prefer that. I lost three units. I'm now getting just murdered this on the year. I'm down eight units overall. Can't seem to find a rhythm. Can't. I think I've had like two winning weeks and they've been very small and a couple of real bad losers.

So I'm glad that we're forgetting about it because it. it was not a good event for me. Hopefully Seattle will be a better one because I need it, frankly. I need to feel what it's like to win again. And I don't know if that's going to be the case. I'm sort of all over the board this week, Billy. Before we dive in specifically to the matchups, how are you feeling overall about UFC Seattle?

Obviously given the fact that a lot of this car has changed in the past two weeks. A bunch of fights have fallen off, gotten moved. last minute bouts just been added to sort of fill space here. How are you feeling about UFC Seattle overall? Yeah, it's the card they tried really hard on, right? But like they were trying to give us a lot, and it just doesn't seem like it's working. Kind of interesting that we've got a couple, like, street signings,

both making their debut here. Neither of them were super late notice call-ups or anything, too. So there's some interesting bits on here. The card could have been better. I think the co-man event is awesome. it's the rare rematch that actually probably should and needs to happen where you know we've got Vittori DeLi D'Idezai 2 running back a year later coming up as a main event in a couple weeks that we could live without this is actually a very good rematch in the co-main event as a grappling

fan that's one to make it worth watching just for that alone for me yeah they tried tried really hard is the exact right way to put it because they have had to try and if I think if this fight card had existed as it was originally constructed on paper, I'd be pretty excited about it. They usually are putting the UFC's putting a better foot forward when they are going on the road. It's been a while since they've been to Seattle. You know, they were trying and it just, we could, at that point, we'd be quibbling about like, this is sort of a weird main event for Seattle, but whatever. But now it's like, yeah, Henry Suu-Hung-Yadong-Yidong is one of the pillars keeping this card from

really sinking into apex-level stuff. So we'll see. I hope it will be fun. Certainly there's the potential for some good things. And there are at least a lot of names, either on one side or some of these fights both, that I have me interested in a lot of the outcomes this weekend. And obviously, this weekend is not just about the O.C, though, unless you have a reason to, we will gloss over the boxing, but there is obviously very big boxing things happening

with the card of the century. however they're marketing the grand Riyadh season is actually labeled Riyadh season this time around. The better be have Bivel 2 with like six other insane fights are actually happening this weekend as well. So there's a lot of combat sports if that is your thing this Saturday kids. But Billy, let's dive in. Main event, former Bantamoyton Flyway champion Henry Suhudo taking on still incredibly young prospect Song Yidong. I think he's only 20. Song is still 27, which is insane. He feels like he's been around for a decade. So, Hudo coming in, he is winless since returning from his retirement, trying to get back on track,

trying to make a run of thing. Songy Dong, three and two in his last five, losses to Corey Sandhagen and most recently, Piotr, Jan. Billy, I read over on the Action Network, so I kind of know where you're going for some of the action we're talking about here, but give us your breakdown of the main event and sort of where we're going, because I'm going to need your help with a couple of things this week, and this is one of those fights. Yeah, it's a really interesting one because Henry Suhudo could be totally washed, right? He's 0 and 2 since coming back. There was three-ish-year layoff before that. So dude doesn't want to fight in basically five years at this point, but he came back and fought two former champions who were probably stylistically, like the two

absolute worst people for Henry Suhudo to have to fight in Al Jermaine. Sterling and Marabh Válezhili. Song Yadong is a much better matchup for him because Song Yadong historically struggled with grapplers. Over there at Alpha Male now, which seems to be helping him a little bit. But again, Podre Yon took him down two times. Ricky Simone took him down two times before getting knocked out. Corey Sanhagen took him down one.

You know, like we've seen this over and over with Song. If those guys can take him down, who's to say former gold medalist Henry Sehudo can't? The risk that he's totally washed is enough that I wouldn't be super confident betting on Suhudo, but at plus 225, maybe even a little bit more now, I'm going to take a little sprinkle and find out. I don't love that it's five rounds for

Sehudo. It's a lot harder to wrestle for 25 minutes than it is to just wait till the end of the round and hope you can knock a guy out. If this were a three-round fight, it'd probably be like a full unit bet for me on Sehudo. Five-round fight, I'll take half a unit at more than two-to-one odds that he can get Song-e-dong to the ground and kind of just

ride this one out. So we are agreed at least in principle on that, right? Like, I have a bet on Henry Suhudo plus 225. Song Yadong, just a really big favorite around minus 270. And I won't be astonished that this bet loses, right? Like, Song Yadong is over a decade younger. Suhudo hasn't won in five years. I don't think Suhudo's wash, but he's also 38 in a weight class, which is really hard to be 38. And Song has, like, you know, yeah, he lost a peyote, but I think there were positive signs in that fight for him to be improving against scrapplers.

Jan got him down a couple of times. Didn't really hold him down that much. And so, like, there are certainly some real concerns for Suhudo. But I also think this is, we're going to get Suhudo's best shot here, his back is against the wall. If he loses this one, I think that we are probably talking a real retirement next. Maybe he just tries to do a legends thing and get a Jose Aldo matchup or something. But close to Pink Slip Derby time.

retirement derby for him. So there's that. But here's what I need your help on this week, Billy, because you know the climb. Everybody loves the climb. It's terrific. We are 10 legs down on the climb right now. The climb bankroll has gone from $100 up to $850 and a little bit of change. And we got to put it somewhere.

And I got a couple of choices this week. And one of those choices is in the main event this fight. I skipped the climb last week, which there's. Thank God I did because I basically won one bet last week and I probably would have lost it. And the climb is the only thing keeping me up this year. With my bottomed out terrible year of profits, the climb is keeping me alive. And so I don't want you to choose now. I just want you to have this in your head.

I haven't placed the bet, whichever, because whichever of these climb bets I don't use is going to go into a parlay. And the one I do will not go into the parlay. And the bet in this one, Suhudo Song, Outs. over two and a half minus 450. I really think that this, I feel pretty decent about this just because kind of where they're at, this fight seems to me like it is going to go long. Both men have the ability to finish,

but they're both been pretty durable in their careers. I don't think either is going to try and come out and go gangbusters. And so just keep that in your mind. Tell me what you think about that before I tell you the other ones as we move on. How do you feel about the over two and a half as a climb? Yeah, I actually meant to come on here and tease you about skipping last week because you get on step 10 and all of a sudden the pressure builds and you're in your own head and it's a it's a whole different experience than it was on step two or whatever. But no, I like that. I think it lines up pretty nicely with how I'm imagining this fight or how I'm imagining the path for Suhudo.

I mean, you can poke holes in all of these. I think the worry here is maybe Suhudo is just totally washed in a step slower and Song You dong hits real hard. there's always going to be flaws in all of them. So I don't hate it. I like where you're going with this one. That is definitely the worry. It's why it honestly, as I was looking at stuff, I was like, let's talk through this with Billy.

Let's get a, let's build a consensus because you are right. It is so much easier to climb when it's basically a standard unit bet, maybe like a two or three X bet. Now I'm 10 legs down. And to fall from here, 10 legs is a third of the way. I am still not close to being done with this journey. But to fall from here means I got to go all the way back. I've honestly been having a moral dilemma on whether I should pull like the original

100 unit bet out at 10 legs just to, so now I'm not losing money on this total climate iteration. We're not. We're pressing on. We may do that later. Maybe if we get to the halfway mark, treated like 21. I can only go back down as long as the thing. But the pressure is higher here.

And for last week's dog trash card, not going to do it. week. It's a better card, and there are some things I like. So keep that in mind. We've got the other ones coming up here, and I'll let you know when we get to them, because we're about to get to one right now, our co-main event, Billy. Like you said, it's a rematch and perhaps a necessary rematch, a rematch of a former LFA middleweight title fight. Brendan Allen taking on Anthony Fluffy Hernandez, Allen, a plus 240 underdog. Hernandez, who did win the first go-around minus 275 betting favorite. Alan was on a seven-fight win streak.

I think he peaked at number seven in the UFC rankings, but lost a unanimous decision to Nessar Dean Imov back in September. No shame in that. Imov may well be fighting for a title in his next bout. Fluffy is writing a six-fight win streak coming off that TKO win over Michelle Paheta in October. Billy, there's a possible climb here, so keep that in mind. How are you feeling about this rematch? me a breakdown.

I don't think you can go with Anthony Hernandez as the climate. First of all, it's only minus 300-ish. That is a little risky. Would not go there. I'm a little bit interested in Brendan Allen. Anytime we have rematches, I bring this up, there's the two trends that matter a lot is the person who wins the first fight, wins the second fight more often than the line implies. But the younger fighter tends to win the second fight more often than the line would imply.

Brennan Allen's a couple years younger. It's not because we think that Brendan Allen is more in his prime than Anthony Hernandez. It's just that if Brendan Allen was 22, 23 new to the sport when they first met, Hernandez was closer to his prime. Then, you know, Alan could have made further improvements here. I think we're all kind of writing off Brendan Allen just because he lost in Asserti and Imov.

But Imov might legitimately be the best middleweight in the division right now. I know that's a bit of a stretch, but he's third or fourth at worst right now. It's a tough, stylistic matchup for both guys. Both guys normally have a grappling advantage over everyone they face. I'm not sure how it plays out here. If this were a five-round fight, I would be all over Fluffy Hernandez. He's just shown himself to be better deep into fights. Three-round fight, given the odds we're getting,

I'm probably going to have a sprinkle on Brendan Allen, kind of like the main event, not super confident, about a half unit. If they neutralize each other's grappling here, like we saw with Petroski Vieira last week, who wins a sloppy kickbox? match. I don't know that it's not Brendan Allen. I don't know that either guy can get the takedown or can do it repeatedly. So sloppy kickboxing match. That kind of odds, I'll always take the underdog. The three round is what gives me some pause here. If this or five, Brendan Allen would

be the climb. I'm not Brennan Allen, sorry, Anthony Hernandez. Fluffy would be the climb because I do think he's going to win this fight. And I still, even at three rounds, I feel really confident. Brendan Allen, because I think that there is some writing him off because of the immovav. I also think that, like, the fight with Chris Curtis was not particularly good. The Chris Curtis rematch was just not a compelling win, and many people thought he didn't win that. I think he probably did, but, like, just a real whatever of a bout there. And so, you know, then if you're starting to poke holes, like, okay, you beat Paul Craig and Bruno Silva and Andre Muniz, these aren't. necessarily great wins and Fluffy Hernandez, I think is the superior grappler.

I think that he can get takedowns. Brennan has still just never been a great defensive wrestler, and I don't think he can threaten that much in the grappling, though that is the question. So to me, I do feel really strongly that Fluffy is going to win. At minus 280, it would be a bold climb selection, right? Like, I would be hanging myself out there. And that, you know, with great risk comes great reward. But that is partly why I am a little concerned here.

So that's, we've got one more possible for our climb. So we won't make a decision yet. But currently, you're telling me to stay away from Fluffy Hernandez at the bet. You're even betting against it slightly. So I guess we'll write Fluffy off of our climb. And I just want you to know that if. If Fluffy hits and whichever climb bed I choose to go with loses, I'm going to hold you personally responsible.

I'm going to be pretty upset. That's fair. I just, it's very risky. And again, five-round fight, I'd be 100% with you. This should be a five-round fight. I don't know why it isn't. We're trying to build these guys. But the nature of three rounds and the odds we just see like a bad kickboxing match,

let the judges decide a bad kickboxing match. I don't think you want that kind of stakes on it. We're not. We're pulling out, and that's okay. So Fluffy Hernandez will be the first leg of a parlay that I'm building. But let's keep moving on down the line because our next bout that we got to talk about is Frankenstein. Just sort of happened. A catchweight bout at 140 pounds. Rob Font taking on Gene Matsumoto, Font, the underdog plus 150.

Matsumoto coming in a round of minus 180 betting favorite, depending on your book. This was supposed to be Rob. Fomte v. Dominic Cruz, which honestly was, I thought, a good solid matchup between two old dudes don't have their fastball. You know, probably the retirement fight for, like, it was 98% going to be the retirement fight for Dominic Cruz. Instead, Cruz separates his shoulder again and just retires. So in steps, G. Matsumoto on a few weeks notice.

And we've got this a bantam weight match that's just happening at a catchweight. so weight can hopefully be made appropriately this week. Fon, been a tough little run. He's two of six in his recent stretch here. He is, though, coming off a unanimous decision win over Kyler Phillips. Losses have all been to really good names, and when he has had this step back in competition like he's getting here, he has managed to sort of fend off the next generation.

He's keeping that gate, Billy, and Matsumoto is trying to storm the gates, undefeated 2 and O in the UFC coming off contender series and a huge leap in competition for him. His previous win was a unanimous decision over Brad Citona, who a lot of respect for Brad Cotona. He and Rob Fon, not in the same ballpark of accomplishment and level. So how do you feel about the feature about this weekend, Bill? You know what's better than the one big thing? Two big things.

Exactly. The new iPhone 17 Pro on TELUS is five-year rate plan price lock. Yep, it's the most powerful iPhone ever, plus more peace of mind with your bill over five years. This is big. Get the new iPhone 17 Pro at tellus.com slash iPhone 17 Pro on select plans. Conditions and exclusions apply. Yeah, I would probably be betting on Matsumoto if it weren't short notice for him. I just worry about him down the stretch.

Kind of a high output guy, both with striking and grappling. Like, he's just out there doing a lot. And I don't know how confident I feel that he's. He can do that over three rounds. I think he was scheduled for a different fight a couple weeks later. They moved it around. Not a great sign that he needs the catch weight, right? Like that means he wasn't that close to fight weight,

which could make it a little bit tougher for him down the stretch. As it stands, probably going to pass. I think it would be Rob Font for me to fend off another up-and-comer. Don't love betting on all these old guys at, you know, more than two-to-one odds. But, yeah, it's just the short notice of it makes it hard for me. I don't think we have round props or over-unders or anything. up for that yet at least not where I've looked so it's doger pass for me but I'm leaning towards the pass I mean if you'd bet a bunch of old people last week that would have paid

huge dividends all the old people kept winning which is really where I failed I was fading old folks didn't work we do have a couple of round props over over is two and a half rounds minus 400 ish minus 420 and then if you start getting into the specialties like minus 750 for over and a half. People who have listened to this program, if you're listening now, you're probably a longtime listener, and thank you. We love you for being here. They know both that I am a big Gene Monsomotiv fan.

He was a big pause on a puppy prospect for me off season seven of Contender Series. Those prospects are 15 and 3 in the UFC thus far. I have just been blindly betting them to honestly pretty solid success. more importantly though there's one thing i really really love in this world and it's a gimmick parlay nothing i love more than a gimmick parlay gimmick parley gimmick parley didn't work last week didn't work the week before third times the charm there are two prospects i love named jean on this fight card pairing them up baby super simple this was the easiest bet i made of the week uh you're going to give me both of both of guys who i thought were great prospects coming

off their season of the contender series, guys who have looked very good in the UFC, parley in them up. So I'll be tipping my hand to our next fight as well because I have Gene Matsumoto in a parlay with John Silva. That pays out around minus 113. And Billy, we can just effortlessly move into that next fight because Lord Gene Silva, taking on Melsic Bagdasarian, honestly, kind of a bit of a weird matchup here. But Silva, massive favorite, one of the bigger ones on the card, minus 5.

75. Bagdasarian, plus 425. Silva had a terrific debut year last year, 3 and 0. One bonus, one weight miss, also moved up to lightweight, just for a fun one with Drew Dober and then knocked out Drew Dober. Bagdasarian, 3 and 1 the UFC coming off that unanimous decision went over Tucker Lutz back in July. You know where I'm at, Billy, where are you at on this one? Okay, so I got to ask, does the Gene Parley, also preclude you from using Silva in the climb?

Because I thought that's where we were going with this other climb option being Gene Silva. It does not. Gene Silva absolutely was in consideration to be the climb. I ultimately looked at the other options I've told you and then one more to come. So you can sell me that Gene Silva should be in the climb instead, but the mean gene parlay had to happen. You just can't not do that parlay if you're me. I like how you're saying it had to happen, but your preamble was like, it lost last week,

it lost the week before. It's, oh, in the last time. It's got to happen, though. Yeah, but those were different gimmick parleyes. This gimmick parley must happen. And also, like, I'm trying, now I've got to go back and try and remember what the parley was that failed, that failed last week. Oh, those were the bomb fumes.

It just failed, this whatever, which was annoying, but sure. And then the one before that was a contender series prospect parley. And Cody Steele was the dumbest man alive. I can't be blamed for Cody Steele not fighting smart. He just refused to grapple. And so there we go. Because otherwise, that would have actually been cashed majorly. So I believe in the mean gene parlay.

And I refuse to back down. But I am more than willing to put John Silva in the climb because I'm a big fan of Lord and fighting nerds in general. Yeah, and that's where I thought this was going with it. I told myself I was staying away from the climb after I lost my last one on some other, I believe Cody Steel-esque situation where someone chose not to grapple. It was Rania Nakamura. Just let's see if we can kickbox.

Let's see what happens. That was so brutal for me as well. Yeah, and I had a bunch of money on steel, so I'm with you. But we're up here saying, you know, had I not lost, I would have won, which is true. But, no, I think Meltzik is actually good. People forget about him because he's been really inactive. You know, his last fight was almost two years ago at this point. He only had two in, like, the two-year stretch before that.

But he is a good kickboxer with a kickboxing background. We've never seen Gene Silva outstruck by anyone, even the much bigger Drew Dober. And if there is any grappling in this fight at all, Gene Silva just has that easy button he can hit if the striking doesn't go for him. Fighting nerds are awesome, at least the male fighting nerds. It hasn't worked out as well when they've had female fighters join them. I'm all over Gene Silva. Probably will be the climb play for me.

I'm going to see what kind of odds I can find just to rebuild another climb, which I'll hopefully next time I'm on with you still be working on. Look, I got to tell you, of the many great ideas that I think I have, the climb is the best one because without it this year would be a total disaster. And instead, now it's really morphed into. I almost don't care like when I'm watching fights. It does not matter if my evening is going, like last week, sucked because I didn't have a climb bet. A week before, I also lost like four units or whatever at 312.

I had a couple more winners there than losers, but I just didn't give a shit. Because it was entirely and explicitly, hey man, can I get to 10? Can I get to 10 steps up? I need Drickett's 2 plus C, Sean Strickland, to go over one and a half rounds. And then when it happened, it was like, gravy. We're good, baby. So I encourage everybody to climb. Climbing is incredibly fun, even if it's not the best business decision you'll ever make.

Moving on down the road to our final main card fight, and it's a weird one because a lot of this card, already been some weirdness, cards about to get a lot more weird with last minute fights, odd places. This fight came together very recently. Alonzo Minifield taking on Julius Walker. in a light heavyweight contest. Minifield, minus 220-bedding favorite. The comeback on Walker plus 185.

And if you're saying Julius Walker, who is that? He's a guy making his UFC debut. He's a 6-0 fighter. Obviously, you know who Alonzo Minifield is. He's been around for a long time at this point. Is coming on a two-fight losing streak? Got knocked out by Osamot, Mersikanov, and Carlos Ulberg in his last two fights. but he is a vet he may even still be ranked.

I didn't actually think to look that up. Is he still holding a UFC ranking right now? I hope not. That would just be terrible. Oh, he is number 15. So the number 15 light heavyweight in the UFC is fighting a debutante who is 6 and O and been a professional for two years. It's a weird one, Billy, how we feeling?

Yeah, it's, well, you didn't even mention, and I don't blame you because there's much weirdness to mention is Menafield lost both of those fights last year by knockout. So he's been knocked out in the last nine months twice pretty badly. Also 37, 38 years old. The other gimmicky bit of this, Menafield played Canadian football. Julius Walker was a D2 basketball player. So we're settling the age old MMA debate, what's a better base for MMA football or basketball?

So that'll be a fun one here. I'm actually weirdly interested in it. I like the resume of Julius Walker. he beat a tough vet in his last fight, a UFC vet theoretically, in Bevin Lewis the fight before. Got some decent grappling, which we don't see a lot of these heavier divisions. Like if you can just grapple at all, you're a step ahead. And Alonzo Menefield is damn near 38 years old and has been knocked out twice in the last nine months. So I'm going to take a little sprinkle on Julius Walker, but I'm not going to bet him straight up.

I'm going to wait until we get method of victory. Take him inside the distance. I don't think he wins an extended fight here because. an extended fight means men of field just shoved them up against the fence and tackled them over and over if there's a stoppage here i think it means walker either found a slick submission which i saw him doing one of the fights i watched or knocked out a 38 year old with a bad chin so you'll probably get four to one at least three to one on that at some point in the week when those pop up that's how i'll be playing it yeah this is um just a weird one i have no bet on this fight because i think

that it's just smarter to pass here for me. My head says Lanzumnefield should win this fight. I want to watch some Julius Walker. And he looks exactly to me like a guy who should make it in the UFC in like a couple of years, but like a dude who has six professional fights and has been fighting for two years. Like he, this is a guy who should be fighting for a spot in the UFC on Contender Series, not entering the Lions Den at the number of 15, even if Mennefield is maybe washed. and certainly in a tough run.

I want to give him a little bit of grace. His losses are to ranked dudes. So, you know, to me, feels like this line should be more heavily weighted towards Minifield, but I also absolutely understand why it's not. And despite me thinking it should be weighted more towards Minifield, I still can't find it in me to pull the trigger in a bet on him. So I guess actually the line is probably well put because it is not enticing, more betting on Minifield.

So just a pass for me. I, you know, if I'm picking straight up, I do think Minifield probably gets it done. Good enough defensive wrestler. And Walker just needs a ton of work, I think, still. But if he comes in and looks great, terrific. We could always use relatively young, light heavyweights. How old is Walker?

It's like 26, 27, 25. So, like, yeah, this is just a guy who should be on contendos shades and he's getting a top 15 dude. So if I were betting, I would bet Metafield, but no action for me. I do have action on this next fight, though, Billy, because one of my guys is fighting, and that guy is not Ion Kutalaba, but Ian Kutalaba is taking on Ibo-Azzlin in another light heavyweight contest.

Kutalaba plus 150 underdog, Aslan, around minus 180. Ian 2 and 4 in his past 6, coming off a split D win over Evan Erzlan in September. And Aslan, a contender series guy, guy was pretty high on off the contender series. Two and O in the UFC. Vince stopped Raphael Cirqueira, who we'll talk about actually later in this show back in October. I won't bury the lead here for me, Billy. I am on Ebo Aslan. I'm on Ebo Aslan was yet another big pause on a puppy competitor for me off season seven of Contender Series.

Guy hits hard, hits pretty often. Kutalabas is a guy who gets hit a lot. shoots takedowns except for ibo aslan's really pretty solid at defensively wrestling and so i think kutalabah is just going to end up brawling and in that i strongly favor ian to get the win and so i have a bet on ibo aslan minus 170 and i also have the under two and a half minus 260 because if hebo haslalab somehow doesn't knock him out which i do think is more likely then kutalab is going to take him down a bunch and iboazlan uh throws real hard i don't trust his gas tank to go super long here. So two bets for me on this one. Billy, how do you feel about my bets and or your

bets? I mean, my bets are your bets. I didn't take the under two and a half just because the price tag on that is not. It doesn't feel worth the squeeze. But yeah, same side of this one. I bet Ibo Oslin at minus 150 when it opened, talked about that in my luck ratings at actionnetwork.com. It's where I just put out my early bets that I think we're going to get some line movement on. We did. I would still absolutely play it at the current minus 175. or whatever it is, probably would take him up to about minus 200. I don't think this version of Ion Kutalaba is really too much of a threat to any remotely decent. I mean, his wins in the last, like, six fights are Ivan Erslan by split decision and Tanner Bojure.

So it doesn't really tell you much about him, and he's been knocked out a bunch of times, which is always scary. Been submitted. Kind of every bad thing that can happen has happened to him. Yeah, I'd go up to about minus 200 on Ebo. Yeah, I honestly thought about, I ended up in a weird place because I had like two many parley legs, but also not enough. So a couple of these, which are prices, because anything over minus 250, I'm usually more looking to just throw in a parlay with something else similarly lined. And I guess I could have ended up doing that. But as I was just moving through, just said F it took the under two and a half minus 260 there.

I think it's also just perfectly fine parley fodder with a couple of other. things coming up. But our next one, I have, oh, I do have a bet on this. I forgot that I have a bet on this one. It is a featherweight fight. Andre touchy, Feeley taking on Melchiseo Costa. Feeley plus 100 minus 105ish, depending on the book. Lines moved a little bit.

Costa minus 120, pickum odds, like pretty evenly lined one here. And kind of makes sense. Both dudes, like three and two in their past five. Costa coming off a submission win over Shilene Nirdambiaki back in June and Philly beat... Hold on. Philly beat Cub Swanson. That's right.

Took a split-y over Cub Swanson also in June. I have a bet here, but it's the chat GPT bet of the week, Billy. And so I hope that you can bear with me here because we're bringing chat GPT back. 21 and 14 overall in chat GPT bets. So it's picking it 66% clip, which given my current minus 8 units on the year, perhaps I should only be betting with chat GPT. I'd be doing better, particularly taking them close to even odds. And let me tell you what's going to happen here, Billy, because the robots deem it.

So it's a masterful, masterful performance from Feeley. Weather's an early storm, adjusts his game plan, and uses veteran IQ to neutralize Costa's aggression. Costa shows promise and durability, but can't overcome Philly's technical advantage and experience. 29-28s across the board. Feeley sweeps the last two rounds, wins the UD, and so I have Andre Feeley. I got him at minus 105. I couldn't get him at plus money by the time I made the bet.

How are you feeling about ChatGPT, Billy? I'm feeling encouraged by ChatGPT. I bet Andre Feeley thinking the line would continue to move, and I could kind of be asset and arbitrage both sides. So I'm stuck holding Andre Feely bag that I didn't necessarily want to be holding coming into this fight. So if Chad GPT co-signs that position, I'm going to be happy about it. I think he's the better fighter here.

I don't think Costa's that great. I think he kind of got to the UFC on short notice because they needed a Brazilian dude in Brazil, and they've given him a couple winnable matchups to keep him around. And any time he fights someone decent, it doesn't go super well for him. feeling another guy getting up there in years in a division where we don't love that but looked good against fellow old Cub Swanson I think he's just a different level than Melki Costa I just worry about the age yeah I broadly speaking agree outside of chat GPT I probably would have just passed because I feelie feel he feels old despite

only being like 34 like he feels like an old 30 whatever he is and so But I do think he is the superior technical fighter. And if Chad GPT says it, two out of three times, Chad GPT is correct. So we're going to keep riding that pony until the wheels fall off. As we move on to the final possible climb bet, Billy, another one of my guys, Monsor Abdul Malik taking on Nick Klein. Malik, Monsor, minus 800, big favorite, Klein plus 550.

Certainly a bit higher than we want the targeted climb. rate to be, but I'm a big Monsor fan. He was one of my top prospects on the most recent season of Contender Series. I likened him to Shades of Walking Buckley. And Nick Klein, also from that recent season of Contender Series, he was a mid-level guy to me, guy who might hang around for a little while, doesn't jump off the page as anybody that will be super exciting. A bit of a late notice on this one, though.

Abdul Malik was supposed to fight Antonio Tricoli, then Klein steps in on that. So this is the other possible climb bet, minus 800 on Malik. If not, he's going to go in a parlay with, at this point, Fluffy Hernandez. There's an open leg that's not a climb bet, but I do, we'll talk about it in a moment. And so should I use this? Are you just going to sell me on Gian Silva to be the climb? Where are we going here? I didn't think this would even count as a climb bat because like most books have already.

But we're minus 1,000, a lot of spots. You can still find that minus 800 if you dig. Had you got, had we been talking like Sunday night and it was still minus 550? I said, absolutely. This is the obvious one. If you can count it as like a half step or whatever. Yeah, by all means, I think Melly makes this. If it was minus 550, this would be the climb.

There would be no questions asked. Okay, cool. I'm glad we're on the same page of that. Yeah. I mean, I'm probably not batting it. It'll be a big DFS option for me, Man Sir Abdul Malik, because I think he's just going to roll here. But, yeah, I'm 100% with you.

If you wanted anyone else doing their own climb, if you're on, let's say you got past Jed, you're on step 16 or whatever. Call it 16 and a half, you know. Take that minus 1,000 and keep it rolling. Minus 1,000 is definitely too much for a climb. Look, like a lot of this is art. You know, there's no, we're not being too specific.

I've had a couple of higher ends because also, there are times when I will throw a fluffy Hernandez and have a lower end as well. And so it all kind of evens out. You don't want to just be hitting minus 800s. I can kind of make myself allowable here for this. So I think I think I'm going to do this as the climb, though genuinely you are convinced. Actually, screw it. We're going to Jean Silva.

Gene Silva is going to be our climb. And then we don't have to worry about the rest of this. mainly because I love Gian Silva. And so I'm super, super cool with that being my climb bet with where we're going, fighting nerds for the win, just stick with the momentum of that gem. And instead, Monsor Abdul Malik will join Fluffy Hernandez's Suhudo song. And then we're going to add one other leg coming up that we'll talk about in just a moment because it is in our next fight, Billy, a bantam-wake contest between Ricky Simone and Javid

Basharat. Simone, fairly sizable underdog here, plus 235, comeback on Basharat minus 290. And Simone's in a bit of a do-or-die situation. He's lost three in a row, lost a UD to Loke Dog, Vinisi Solivera back in June. Basharat coming off his own loss, the first of his career to Amin Zahabi back in March. Pretty wide line. Not sure that it is, it's not correct, though. It may well be correct, Billy.

How are you seeing this sort of back-against-the-wall moment for Ricky Simone? You know, I didn't think of it until you said it, but could they actually cut Ricky Simone? I mean, he had a five-fight winning streak before this losing streak. All the top dudes, depending on your feelings, not a loke dog. But, yeah, that's interesting. I didn't even consider that so now. I think stylistically, it's actually a pretty decent matchup for Ricky Simone, and that he should be able to get takedowns when he needs them.

against Javid Boshat. Boshat a little bit scary on the ground to tangle down there with. To me, we don't have these odds yet. This is a classic plus three and a half point spread when that comes up at Draft Kings, assuming that is even or plus money. The wrestling should steal at least a round for Ricky Simone. I'm kind of expecting this to be a close decision one way or the other. Javid doing a little bit more on the feet,

maybe a little bit more threat on the ground, but Ricky dominating the takedowns and the control time. So those are not up yet as we record this. If we get anything with a plus in front of it on the point spread on Ricky Simone, that's where I'm going. Yeah, I do think this fight is going to be a little close to than the odds suggest. The open end, the the parley leg that we are using here, the Seabourke special over one and a half here, minus 600.

Not every book has this up, certainly not yet. A couple already do minus 600. I just will be really surprised if this doesn't. I do think Simone can get the wrestling. going to some extent. I do think Basharat will defend a lot of it and can threaten off the ground, but I just see this fight going long. Ricky Simone, while being on the cusp of maybe like really a precipitous fall from being

a ranked guy to now possibly four in a row, he hasn't been getting dusted, dusted, and so I think that this goes long. That will be the fourth leg of this parley, which I will have to piece together and figure out the odds on. But the parley is Mansour Abdul Malik, Fluffy here. Hernandez, Suhudo Song, over two and a half, and Simone Bashra over one and a half. It's going to play pay plus money. I'll figure that out as we go along.

But we're going to wrap this thing up because we got three fights, and I don't have too much to say about the remaining fights on this card. And I have almost nothing to say about this next one, Billy. It is a, I believe this is actually going to end up as a catchweight fight, a 175-pound catch-weight bite, because this was thrown together in the past 36-8. hours. Nikolai Veritnikov taking on Austin Vandiford. Nikolai lost his UFC debut to Danny Barlow last year, and Vandeford finally making his UFC debut, perhaps best known as Mr. Page Van Zant. He and his wife have been campaigning

for him to get into the UFC, finally do it on short notice as the Seattle card needed names, needed people, needed bodies. He gets it. He is an underdog, though, plus 135. Not a lot of books even had lines at the time I was compiling this info and nikolai minus 155. Billy, I will get my prediction out of the way. I have no bet as is too new. I couldn't really go back and watch too much. My gut honestly says that there might be value on Vandeford as an underdog just with the grappling chaps, but I would not take that to the bank nor put any weight behind it.

I have no action here. What about you? Yeah, I got nothing. I didn't even realize until we were recording this one exactly. when they had put this together or that they had put it together. Not great, two guys both around 35 making their UFC debut. I mean, Vratnikov debuted last year when he was 34 and changed. So, yeah, I don't care.

This is just, we need content, right? Like, we got to feed the content machine. We need some guys like this. Every once in a while, I don't care. Pretty much exactly it. They wanted to get this fight card up to 12 fights because so many fell off. They make it happen here very short notice. And good for Austin Vanderford.

He's been one to crack in the UFC for a while, happy from to get there. He is a competent fighter, you know, former Bellator title challenger. He's been around the block a little bit. So, uh, fine. No, no issue with the matchup. Just didn't have any time to, to dive in. And I'm comfortable with that. Our penultimate fight to discuss, Billy, I don't know, weird one, too.

Like, also just a very curious fight. Nurse Sultan, Rusebayev, taking on Eric Mekonico in a middleweight matchup. Min is 270. McConaughey, McConaugh, plus 230. Just a weird one, considering Rouselbao's last fight, was against Joaquin Buckley,

who's now, like, just outside of the title fight at Welterweight, and McConico is making his UFC debut. He's had a fairly standard issue regional career. I say that because I couldn't actually find a lot of tape, so I am just having to look at the names and records of people. Couldn't act like I went and tried to find it couldn't and so to me this is the stupidest bet I have on the card Undeniably Billy but because it's not based on anything other than this seems dumb

Roussabai being a minus 270 betting favorite over a dude who I can't even find video of Seems wrong considering he was all like pretty close to a pickum against Wachene Buckley like a few months ago So I I just am on Ruzabayev here At minus 270, honestly, I probably should have him parlayed up with the Aslan Kutalaba under two and a half, something like that and make it a little tastier. But I didn't really want to tie him to anything else because this is a stupid bet on my part. But it's one I already made, so here I am. I thought this was the other one when you were teasing earlier that would be in consideration for the climb. It couldn't possibly climb with this.

I get the hesitation why you wouldn't. I just thought that's where we were going. I guess the only thing that makes me a little bit nervous is there's a boy of his coming up to middle weight or back to middleweight after going down to Walterweight. I don't know what we're doing, pick a weight class. He's a big, big boy. I don't know why he did Walterweight in the first place. Mechanico recently fought at light heavy weight, but is mostly a middle weight. Be Mackey Potolo, if we remember coconut bombs.

That was probably fun, but as you alluded to, nobody can find it. You can't watch it anywhere. Another guy close to 35 making his UFC debut. Don't really care if I was on a couple steps into a, maybe, I don't know, maybe I'll climb with this one. I might have to tweet that out as step one of my climb, get some good momentum. It's only minus 300. Dude, that's the other thing, too. He's 30, he's like almost 35.

And like, this is going to sound disrespectful because it is. Like, he's just, like, the last stretch of his career has been in tough enough. Like, it's just like, how is this dude not a bigger under? And I can't watch him fight. I can't climb with him because I physically have never seen him fight. So maybe he is the second coming at 34 and, you know, winning decisions and tough enough. But like I just will have no idea. I truly don't get like to me this.

Yeah, I guess Rizaboyev coming up. Maybe that's it. Just feels like Vegas had this dude as almost a stone pickum with Joaquin Buckley like six months ago. And now a dude I've never heard of and cannot watch fight. who is 35 is like a 2 to 1 underdog. That just seems wrong. And so I bet it. I bet it out of principle, Billy, but I can't climb with this particular principle.

But let us move on to the final fight. We will discuss the first fight of the evening. Honestly, could be fun. I think it will be fun. Good opener. Modestis Bukowsk is taking on Rafael Sokiera in a late heavyweight contest to open the car. Bukakis is three and one. in the UFC coming off a submission

went over Marcine Prochno back in July. Rafael O.N. 1 lost his debut. We already mentioned it, to Ibo Aslan back in October, was undefeated before then 11 and 0 to start his professional career until running into Ebo Aslan. Billy, I actually know that you have some thoughts about this one because I did read you over on Action Network. Tell me where we're going.

Yeah, I like the underdog here. It's kind of just a what don't we know. he took the fight on short notice against Ibo Aslan. He was supposed to be fighting on the contender series that season. Two different opponents dropped out, and then they said, you know, screw it. We need to feed the content machine, so we'll just feed you to Ibo Aslan on your way in. I don't love that he got TKO'd in less than a minute four-ish months ago. I would have liked to see a longer time off.

But he looked really good before that in all of his fights. Looks like a good athlete. I think just physically he's going to have a lot of tools over Modestus Bucca. who is technically good, but doesn't really overpower anyone. His wins on this time back in the UFC are bad. It's Tyson Pedro, Zach Pauuga, and Marcin Pratchneo. I don't know if any of those guys are still on the roster. They probably are.

Someone went up to heavyweight and is now ranked. But he got knocked out by Vitor Petrino in there. Circularia could probably do that as well. I don't think he's going to win necessarily, but at plus 260, I don't know if we can still get plus 225 came all the way down so i'm glad i got it earlier when it was a higher line can still find a plus 250 out there i would take that i don't think bucoucass is that good you said he was three and one in the ufc he is three and one this time around in the ufc after going one and three his first time in the ufc and kind of getting bodied and pushed around by big strong dudes

who hit hard in most of those losses fair enough fair enough uh i actually agree in principle with a lot of what's going on there. Let me tickle your fancy with one other thing here, though, Billy, because I already have a bet on this, and I'll get to that in a second. What if instead, you know, you say you don't know that Havel is going to win this fight, plus 240, 260?

What if you're looking at a plus 375 for Cirquietta by KOTKO? Because when Bukakis loses, the man gets knocked out, and in his career, prior to me, Eating Ebo Aslan, Raphael Serchiata, he knocks some fools out. Eight of his 10 or 11 career wins have come by KOT, K.O. And so I haven't done that because the books I can use, not available yet for a K.O. But there, I did, though, take the under two and a half minus 210 because Serkieta is pretty much a killer-be-killed guy and Bukakis gets killed.

So either he wins or I do think Bukakis, if he can survive. and just sort of be a better fighter can probably find a finish as well. So how are you feeling about any of that, Billy? That one's tricky. In principle, I don't think it's far enough away from his money line to feel worth it. But it makes a total sense. If he's going to win that, it's kind of like betting those on Derek Lewis, right? Where you get like an extra 20 cents on it.

You're like, I mean, if he wins, that's how it's going to happen. You feel real silly like the one time those guys win a decision. But, yeah, I get it. I think had I not got the better line earlier in the week on Circular. Korea probably be joining you there. But yeah, sure. I mean, why not? That's the thing, because like at plus 240, I kind of just don't even want to make it. But if instead I'm just saying plus 375, I'm like, he's only going to win one way. And now I'm a lot more interested in that. So I haven't pulled the trigger because I haven't had the opportunity. Probably will do that,

assuming any of the books I have can get close to that plus 400-ish number for, you know, like a half unit, quarter unit, something like that. But I am on that under two and a half. I do think that that will cash in Billy. You know what that means? That means we're done. We did it. UFC Seattle is in the books.

Listeners now know all the correct bets to make. Who is going to win? Who's going to pay them money? And come Saturday, we can all be rich. We can be continuing our climb. And then we can continue on. Are you excited, Billy? Because, I mean, following this, we get to go back to the ape.

UFC Vegas 103 uh that sure there's a fight card coming up bill you excited about it I know what you're doing here

and I get it it's an incredible main event though Manoa cop versus Osama my name five rounds of fly weights and I'm happy I don't care who they are really like that should be fun very silly co-main event too so yeah I mean

is it the best card no you give me a flyweight main event the apex and hashtag we'll watch here's the thing it's a good fight. It's not even, it's, it's a worst fight than the one we originally had, so I don't even feel good about it. Because Brandon Royval versus Mano Cop,

no doubt about it, title eliminator, pumped, like, yes, I actually really like Osama Bob, I think he's very good. I think that fight could end up being not the most entertaining, compelling. Whereas when Brandon Revalvall's fights, it's always a watch. So like, even the main event, despite being an objectively good matchup,

I can still knock it because the one we were supposed to get was better uh truly on paper i think one of the worst apex cards in a while and so that's tough but then we get to go to ufc 313 so i guess i guess it's all fine billy before we get out of here tell the people where they can find you where they can follow you everything about you and uh then we'll skedaddle yeah head over to actionnetwork.com if you click the ufc tab at this point mostly just me under there i will have a full preview of brandon allen versus Fluffy Hernandez covering that co-main event, which is kind of why I was a little cagey, didn't have all the answers to that one yet. Then over on Twitter, Psycho Award 586, or the artist

formerly known as Twitter, and that's about it. I guess you can join the Action Network Discord as well, if you want. We chop it up, talk fights in there, but yeah. Well, thank you for stepping in to talk Seattle. Not a bad card. One of the better ones you've been on for, frankly, so good enough for that. And, Billy, it's always a pleasure. We will certainly have you back soon. Thank you all for listening. We will see you for UFC Vegas 103, guys. Unw me all.

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