MMA Fighting - No Bets Barred: Is It Safe For Vicente Luque To Fight Rafael Dos Anjos At UFC Vegas 78? Plus Jake Paul Vs. Nate Diaz Aftermath

Episode Date: August 9, 2023

The summer is almost over but the UFC keeps right on rolling with a return to the Apex and UFC Vegas 78. Headlined by a welterweight matchup between Vicente Luque and Rafael dos Anjos, there are 12 fights on the docket this Saturday, plus a Friday Bellator card and Anthony Joshua doing his thing in boxing, so the No Bets Barred boys are back to break it all down. After taking a week off, Conner Burks returns to the hosting chair where he and Jed Meshew discuss the aftermath of Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz, before diving into this weekend's events. Topics discussed include a heated debate on whether UFC Vegas 78 is the worst card of the year, the moral quandary of whether you should bet on the main event, and whether you can trust Anthony Joshua to get the job done. Tune in for episode 57 of No Bets Barred. Follow Conner Burks: @connerburks Follow Jed Meshew: @JedKMeshew Subscribe: http://goo.gl/dYpsgH Check out our full video catalog: http://goo.gl/u8VvLi Visit our playlists: http://goo.gl/eFhsvM Like MMAF on Facebook: http://goo.gl/uhdg7Z Follow on Twitter: http://goo.gl/nOATUI Read More: http://www.mmafighting.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Available now, only from Audible. On the Vox Media Podcast Network. When on, y'all, we are back. I am back after a week off from No Bet's Bard. This time, we are breaking down UFC Apex 78, and Bellator 2.98 as we slowly approach Bellator 300, the biggest MMA event of the year. We'll get there later in the show before all that.

Chad, how we doing, man? You missed me last week or what? I did miss you. Shout out to A.K. Lee, stepping in, you know. One of the best. One of the greatest. Carrying the ball while you were off gallivanting in Dallas for three, three MMA hours last week.

Three MMA hours last week. A lot of M.A. hours. you telling me man I'm certain that was a lot of work for you plus the hat the belt buckle I mean you're doing all the things how did you do gambling wise last week because I'll be honest

I had a great week lost one singular unit I don't know if anybody if anybody saw this on the show my parley pals pick was over eight and a half in the Amanda Serrano fight I individually bet over eight and a half

in the Amanda Serrano fight and I had Amanda Serrano by decision. We went to a great Tex-Mex spot. Shout out to Signor Bean in downtown Dallas. And the Amanda Serrano fight came up. Heather Hardy, not looking great. She's older in her career.

Not really sure why she took this fight and everything. And our good friends, New York, Rick, and Mike Hack, adamant. Never been a safer bet on this earth than the under eight and a half in the Amanda Serrano. Heather Hardy fight. Oh, we start. going at it. We start going at it. I'm just like you guys are insane. Amanda Serrano's been to five straight decisions over eight and a half and six straight fights. She's already been to a decision with Heather Hardy. Doesn't matter about where Heather Hardy is at in her career. She is still tough.

She's still a dog. And they're pretty friendly about this whole thing. There is zero bad blood between them. She keeps talking about how- I think that part was key. All of this, they're calling me a lunatic. They're acting like I am crazy for this. I was like, all right, if you guys are this adamant, if you guys are this positive, then bet it. Put your money where your mouth is. You can get the under for plus money right now. Like, take it then. Sure enough, I get a text the next morning from New York, Rick. I mean, also, Mike Heck is like done by round three, done by round three. If there was an under four and a half, I would take it. Sure enough, next morning, weigh-ins. Rick text me and he's just

like Heather Hardy was just crying on the scales because the weight kept was so bad. She's like super duper in bad shape. I'm even more certain about the under. He signs up for a betting account just to place this bet. Puts a substantial wager on the under, sends it to me and everything. And I'm like, wow, you. Hey, respect, put his money where his mouth is. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

But the problem is I was like, I ride with my guys. And I mean, you have now, you've now not just entered my brain, you've infiltrated it and taken it over. Cash out the over eight and a half. Oh. Cash out the Amanda's Rano by decision, like plus 140 on that. Oh, ha, ha, ha, them both out. Cash out too easy. Like, cruise control winners.

Cash them both out. I mean, I, she was a minus 10,000? And I was getting decision. A woman who's been the five straight decisions. at plus money? She was a minus 10,000? Yeah, cash out two bonafide winners, two stone cold winners,

and replace them with a loser. I put real, real money on a loser after that. And then I also went on the Friday show and changed my Parley Pals pick. Parley Pals pick was still right. Rick lost it for us. He was doing a lot of losing last week now that I think about it.

But because of that, because of all of that, I lost one singular unit on the week and that one singular unit being the under eight and a half on Amanda Serrano, Heather Hardy. Four straight winning weeks snapped by my compadres, my coworkers,

my, what I thought were friends. Friends wouldn't do you like that. I guess not. Friends wouldn't do me like that. But here's the thing. Everyone always says you either winner you learn. I definitely learned. stand on your hill don't let people talk you into bullshit just

you got to believe in yourself we got you would not believe how if you could have walked in on the conversation how heated it was at this text Mexican restaurant how much we were going at it you would have been like what are what are you guys talking about like is this uh you know is this a political discussion no we're talking about the over the under

and the man to Serrano heather Hardy fight so yes lost one unit that's on me I can't blame anyone. I cannot blame anyone because I did cash out the bets. I did place the bets. That's on me.

But I just had to tell you how we got there. Got to that point. To you, though, a winning week, an excellent week I'm hearing. Yeah, I lost a lot of bets, but I went about 50-50 overall on bets, but I cashed just under five units. Because if you had come on the show last week, I don't believe you took a side in the main event of Paul Diaz. No, but tell me you had Jake Paul by decision. Sure did. Oh, buddy.

Honestly, the best bet of my year. Plus 350 for Jake Paul by decision was an insane number. I butchered. I butchered that Paul Diaz card so bad, dude. Because I was on the over. I was like, this is going long. He's not going to knock Diaz out. And I stared at that Jake Paul decision number and I never pulled the trigger.

I like, oh, man, I had so much regret after that card. I was just like, damn, I botched this. I fumbled this. Yeah, I, there was a very brief. It was honestly one of, that was one of the few times was like, am I crazy? Why is this number this way? And after you got past the first round, after you got past the first round, there was like next to no concern about it. Yeah.

It was extremely, extremely clean the whole way. There was a brief moment. Oh, the drop. When he did drop them. No, I wasn't that concerned about him dropping there, but the drop. A.K. suggested a fun moonshot of. I think I heard about that. Nate Diaz wins, but Jake Paul gets a knockdown.

Like, he was really threading the needle. The number had to be huge. It was like plus $4,000 or something insane. And once he knocked him down, I was like, there's a world where he just gasses himself out trying to finish Nate here. And then Nate, he pours it on and AK spikes the greatest bet of Nobets Bar history. Greatest bet in Nobts Bar history easily. Two things.

When Nate Diaz got knocked down from my fancy, point, I thought he got knocked out of the ring for a second. I mean, it looked like he did. I was like, oh my God. I was like everything that was going good for him is washed away by getting knocked out of the ring right here. Stayed in. Two, I actually thought it was going to be closer on the scorecards, like watching it

in person and obviously not having social media and anything. I can believe that. When we went to the scorecards, I was like, it's going to be 196, 93, Jake, and then 297, 92's. but I want to say it was like 98, 91 across the board. Or something like that. I did think Jake won. I'm sure the energy in the arena favored Nate.

So like, because I gave Nate three rounds. And, you know, but it's hard for me to give him five. Fun event, fun event regardless. Beautiful, brilliant call by you. Man, we should have done, I should have done the MVP decision parlay. That would have been beauty. out of it. Frigan beauty.

Alas, we can get it all back. October 14th, KSI, Tommy Fury, Logan, Paul, Dylan Danis announced yesterday. Sure. See, like, these cards. Can we bet that fight doesn't happen?

Does any book take action? I haven't seen any yet, but you want me to let you in on a little secret? I love secrets. I actually think it's going to happen. Wow. As much as I'm ripping on. That is the boldest take.

of 2023. I think it's going to happen, dude. I think his back is two against the wall. I think misfits, the zone, prime, everyone who put this fight together, I think there had to be something in the contract. If contracts have been signed, there has to be something in there about a penalty if he doesn't show up. Like, there has to be something in there.

And then just three. I know he's like if he doesn't show up the clownery level like we've got McGregor talking about it McGregor is like the return is here I'm going to be in the building like yada yada yada like I feel like there's going to be so much pressure on this guy to show up

that he actually does it this time I don't know man I it would be Listen if I'm wrong I'm not going to be shocked Is the case it's funny either way If he pulls out again it's honestly the best bit in combat sports going at the moment. And if he does show up,

then he's going to get beat up by Logan Paul, which will also be funny. Will there be a bigger baby face on planet Earth than Logan Paul if Dylan Dennis makes it to that ring? There might not be a bigger baby face in the history of planet Earth. And can you imagine if Logan Paul knocks him out? The guy, he is killing it in WWE.

if he can go to a crossover boxing event and knock out Dylan Danis, he will be a hero. He will be a hero. Yeah. It's incredible that Logan Paul is going to find himself far more successful than Jake Paul, who has been unbelievably successful in this avenue just by knocking out Dylan Danis. And then they're going to, and then they're going to like, they've planted the seeds on this beef they have with each other, and then eventually they're going to fight for like $25 million dollars apiece and then they both just retire and and everything's hunky dory for the paul

brothers it's all it's all along con and got to respect it uh way one last secret before we move on on this when dylan danis came in studio you know he hung out in the back for a while pleasant guy nice guy that tracks yeah i enjoyed his company he's he is very clearly putting on a show because nobody loved him enough at different points. He just needs a hug. The man just needs a hug, and that's all. And I hope somebody gives it to him, and then he can come out and move on with his career. Because not that long ago, Connor, he was a legitimate, not a legitimate fighter, but like, hey, here's a guy who can be pretty good in the grappling game.

Like, I want to see what happens. And now he's a joke, just a total joke. Training with Connor, supermodel girlfriend, like, you. Yeah, it's crazy how much his career is going off the rolls. All right, that was last week. We'll save the, I've had my fix on like crossover influencer boxing for now. Until October, yeah. Until October.

See, and then it fades away. And then October's big month, man. We're going to do that card, which I'm sure there'll be some good UFC events as well. We're going to do that card. Straight into Abu Dhabi, straight into in Ganu Fury. Yeah. Nice little run, beautiful fall weather, the dogs will be on. I mean, it's looking forward.

The odds will be in the middle of being undefeated for whatever it is. 40-something games at that point. Yeah, five or six to know at that point. All right. We have to talk about this week, though. UFC apex, 78, baby. I love that you say we have to talk about them because we do have to. This is not a choice.

I do not want to do this. I'm very much happy that we have the pay-per-view next. week and then Singapore and then Paris and then another pay-per-view and then the no-cha fight card because this one I'm not going to lie I struggled I struggled like diving deep on it I won't lie I just didn't at some of these fights like I'm if I wanted to break into this I don't care enough and I'm not going to get there I have a hot take for you Connor please feed me in response to your Dylan Dennis my hot take is that this is the worst fight card

the UFC's ever put together. No, no, no, no, no, no. No, we cannot say that after the Holly Home fight card just a month ago. The Hollyholm fight card had two title fights. Stop. Stop. Stop.

Stop. No. Don't get me this. What fight on this card is meaningful? Yeah, I mean, that's fine. But there's just no way that this is worse than that card. I personally believe that this is a worse fight card than anything we have seen this year. Please stop, dude.

I'm pulling it back up. The only good fight is the main event, and that main event is exceedingly not meaningful. At least there have been meaningful fights on other fight cards. Are you implying Norman Dumont, Chelsea Chandler? I mean, that was for the vacant women's featherweight. You want to know what's hilarious? title fight? One of the most entertaining

fighters in the UFC guaranteed fireworks, Terrence McKinney. Last two fights have been on absolute dog shit cards. Yeah. He's going to be doing a lot of heavy lifting

on this car. I gotta tell you. I'm looking at this card, dude. This card was so bad. This card was so bad. Dutakova versus Stella Nunez. Melsik Bagdasarian,

Tucker Lutz, Juniang Park, Albert Dariyev. Look, the Iron Turtle? Give me the Iron Turtle. Nah, dude, you can't say that when we have a card. Like, Vicente Lucke RDA, that's like, those are big name bangers right there. Like, we're good.

The main event is better than that main event. Way better. But it's not nearly as meaningful as that main event. And that's like my big problem in this card. There's one. Meaningful, I guess. Like, if, yeah. I mean, if you're highly concerned about 135.

Meyer Boyna Silva probably got a title shot with that win. That's like, we can quibble about this card's quality. You can't say that that's not a meaningful fight. Yeah, but it doesn't matter to me. I don't, like, it doesn't matter. Does this Luke A-R-D-A fight matter to you? It's probably going to be more entertaining. That's why it doesn't matter to me at all.

Like, it probably, I don't even know that it, on paper it's certainly more entertaining, but Meyer Boyna and Silver choking out Hollyholm was pretty fun. It was pretty fun, but, uh, but Francisco Prado-Otman Azateer. I mean, AJ Dobson, Defon, and Choukwe, like, this is an awful card. It's so bad. I'm not defending it, dude, but you're saying the Holly Home Main Event Apex card with absolutely zero stakes on it is better than this. I believe that that's the thing is, I think that card had more stakes on this card. This card has zero stakes.

That card didn't have a ton of stakes. I'm not here to say that it's a great card. They had one fight with stakes, and it's Meyer Buena Silva being the 10th rake person in finishing Holly home. That's one more mistakes than what we have this week. Nah, I disagree strongly. You don't have to agree with me?

I'm not going to. This is my stance and I'm sticking with it. You're not backing me down. Not on this one. All right, let's get into the main event because I actually do have concerns for it. Oh, concerns. What kind of concerns? Vicente Lucke getting knocked out by Jeff Neill and having a brain hemorrhage? Oh, well, you know, I guess that's fair.

I won't lie. I forgot that that brain hemorrhage part, not ideal. Yeah, like, I'm so personally for me, like, I'm staying away from it. Ooh, that's probably a good answer. I won't even pretend. I entirely forgot the whole, like, serious medical condition thing. I was just looking at this as a, oh, here's a fight that sort of matters. He did get medically clear.

So you want to feel okay about that, I guess. But in my head, if I'm looking at this as a fight breakdown and take your mileage however you want people, you don't have to follow me, I think this fight really favors RDA, not factoring in the potential medical issues of Luka. RDA, I mean, Luka's biggest issue lately, and by lately, I mean, for most of his career,

has just been wrestlers. Yes, Jeff Neal, fight thing it happened but prior to that Balah Muhammad took him down a whole bunch and it's just sort of a thing a way you can make hay and Artea has been very good at doing that RDA is really good pressure fighter and for RDA his issue has been losing two wrestlers

and then Hafeel Fazeveh, but Hafeel Faziv is also awesome so it's still really really durable it's been knocked out a few times but and Luka can always do that but I think this is just on the merits, RDA is going to pressure him back, it's going to whip the body kicks in, going to score

takedowns, going to kind of win the fight that way. But I wasn't even thinking about the medical concerns here. So I think that's a reasonable choice not to bet on this fight. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think it's going to be a great fight, especially if Luka is healthy. Like, this has potential

to be a super-duper sick fight. But yeah, just from the medical issues and like, I kind of like Luka. Like if he comes in, like full throttle, he's going to be the bigger dude in there. Like, I think he has more finishing potential when it comes to the fight. But he's also seven years younger. Like, RDA is 38.

I know he's in great shape still, but. It's wild to me that Lou Ge is 31. Yeah, yeah. He an old 31, man. I mean, yes. And old 31. Both these dudes, man. They make up for the earlier in the card in terms of a.

experience. Both these dudes over 30 fights, RDA over 40. I mean, you got some of these undercards. They have like a combined 15 fights between them. Tough. I will say, Connerberg's special is, I would say, in full effect on this fight. Over one and a half. Let me jot that down.

Let me jot that down. The over one and a half feels, that's the thing. I also don't, I don't have that many bets in general on this weekend. And in particular, because a lot of props not up. Old Draft Kings doesn't even have over-under's set at this point. Yeah, I noticed... Recording Wednesday morning. That feels a little crazy, right?

It's super insane that they don't have any over-unders on Wednesday morning. Like, we're talking... Oh, they got one. Oh, they just drop it? Parisian and Buda. Oh, we got that? Hell yeah, I needed that. Oh, you know where I'm at.

Two and a half, baby. Yeah, yeah. I'm actually looking forward to getting into that fight. Yeah, so I'm staying away. You said over one and a half is a parlay piece. Parlay piece. All right. Let's move on to the co-main event.

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Cove Swanson's fighting Hakeem Dawoodoo on this card? And you're here to tell me that this isn't the worst card you've ever heard of. I can't believe how much you're defending the Holly Home, Myra Buena Silva card. I love it. Yeah, you know, I won a good card, but I think this card's just really, really awful. This card's really bad to me. Let's agree on this.

They're both not good cards. They're both Firm agree Incredibly Apex cards They Last week I came up with a new rating system For cards

Based on the Michelin Star system Where Yo, this is great So it's a one star card If the card is happening In Atlanta And I would go to it It's a one star card

The card's happening In Nashville You know somewhere that's drivable And I would make the drive Take the you know Take a go out of my way to see this card, two-star card. And then if I would take a special trip to fly to Vegas or whatever, it's a three-star card.

What if it's in Atlanta and you wouldn't go? Then it's a zero-star card. Every apex card by definition is a zero-star card. I may need ways to really, like, give even worse scores than just as... It's not all apex cards are the worst things I've ever seen, but all of the worst fight cards I've ever seen have been apex cards. So, might need to add some nuance in there. Yeah.

This is a zero star card for sure. You know what? I'll give it to you. I'll give it to you. You can make the argument because of the Holly Holmeyer or Buena Silva fight. Because Buena Silva finished her and might get a title shot off. Oh, if Holly Home had done awful Holly Home things, it would have been terrible, certainly, and probably definitively would be worse than this.

But we also don't know what this card is going to be yet. This card could be a tough hang. Shouts to your wonderful shout. There is one, uh, two, uh, three fights where both fighters have less than 10 professional fights.

And there is one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight,

eight fighters that have less than 10 professional fights on this card. A third of the card has less than 10 professional fights. Love, love that. Not the issue for the co-main. Cub Swanson, how many pro fights do you have like 40? He's got to be. Yeah, 41, 41.

And is this how we send him out? Is this a retirement fight for Cub Swanson? He's going out four. Kind of feels like it. Four straight apex cards for him has not fought in front of a crowd since 2019. I mean, I hope that he doesn't retire in the apex. because it feels like he deserves more than that. You know, he's back up at featherweight for this fight,

so maybe he'll look a little better. It doesn't feel like he's going to win this fight, but I'm not like overly sold on Hakeem Dawadu either. So I hope that he just keeps going. Cubb wants to keep fighting, and they let him make his exit, you know, the next time they go to California or something, you know. I don't know if or when they are going back to Cali,

but let him at least retire in front of a crowd. I do think he's probably going to lose to Dawood. Good news is Dowdoo's a decision machine, seven of his last of his nine fights in the promotion, gone to the card, so Cub probably doesn't get this door blown off him. And again, I don't have the lines because they aren't out there. I'm going to be cooking up a non-violence parlay

with the over one and a half in this one as well. Love the over one and a half in this one as well. I don't mind that. I don't mind that. Yeah, I'm just going to stay away from it. I just feel like, yeah, I don't know really where Cub Swanson is at in his career right now. Obviously, he's at the end of it. The Kim Dawoodoo is kind of the same way. Like, he's obviously got a lot more time left in the tank, but the Julian Arosa performance is concerning for me at this point. Yeah, it's Doesn't give you a lot of confidence Doesn't give you a lot of confidence Either way That should be a fun co-main event

In the featherweight division And Topsoons is usually pretty fun Yeah, we'll keep it rolling though We'll keep it rolling because I actually have stuff To get into on this next one Light Heavyweight bout The Light Heavyweight debut for Chris Dawkes

Taking on Khalil Roundtree right now Roundtree minus 1-8 Daucus plus 150. So I took Daucus, no, lies. I took Roundtree by KOTKL minus 105 in hopes that we get the Khalil Roundtree that when he's on, he is one of the most violent dudes in the UFC.

I mean, just two fights go against Carl Roberson. Like, that was such a beatdown. I don't even know the word for it. Like he just like, just, it really was like the, he was fighting him like he owed him money. Like he just absolutely dogged out Carl Roberson. It was, it was one way traffic from the jump ends up finishing him. Now, on the flip side, Chris Dawkes is coming down to 205. I think he's doing that because of the results that he was having at 265,

three straight losses by knockout, been finished in all his losses, five by K. And I just don't know how that's going to work out for him. going up against the guy in Khalil Roundtree, who when he's cooking, man, he has put many a dude's lights out in very violent fashion. Five of the seven UFC wins are by KOTKO. I feel like Chris Dawkes, like he's not going to have a huge size advantage at 205. He obviously had to trim down quite a bit. And I really don't think he's going to have any sort of speed advantage here. And I just think at the number, I think Khalil Roundtree is going to get him out of though.

It's not quite a Wolfpack wager because it's not plus money, but we have the exact same bet. We have the exact same read. The exact same breakdown. I mean, he's, Chris Dogg has been, been iced in three, three in a row, and he's making his drop to 205, which is probably a more competitive division than heavyweight against a guy who's a solid 205er and hits real hard. Seems too easy almost for this one.

all the way with you, Cleo Roundtree by KO, TKO. Enough said, really. Enough said. Let's keep it rolling. Next up, women's straw weight bout, Pollyanna, Vianna taking on Yasmin, Lucindo. And right now you can have Lucindo for minus 205, Viana plus 170.

I kind of feel like this is the striker versus grappler. Like I think Lucendo would sort of style or on the feet if it stays there. but it goes to the ground Viana is live that is for damn sure either way I'm just going to stay away from this one just going to sit on the couch and enjoy yeah I'm also passing it

to me it's a doggar pass situation because I do think if Viana can't get take down she's probably cooked here she's not a great wrestler which is a bit of a problem but you know things happen you can wind up in the ground and I almost wanted to play Pollyanna, but there's just too many, no need to, really.

It's just a little too concerning, so sticking off it, but I like your read. We keep it rolling then to a middleweight bout. Tefan-inchukui taking on A.J. Dobson right now. Tofong can be added for minus 142, Dobson plus 120. I mentioned it earlier about the amount of fighters on here with less than 10 professional fights. Both these guys have less than 10. pro fights they're both coming off back-to-back losses it's a super closely lined fight i just have no interest in laying my money here we've got a pay-per-view next week uh don't need to be

to be forcing bets on guys that i can't really be trustworthy in in what they're going to do in there yeah i mean i don't even know what you are basing a bet on here um must just if if you're out there and you're basing something, you must just have a real good read on how this fight's going to play out because just look at the guys they've lost to, the guys they've beaten. Nothing really jumps out as a pretty clear advantage one way or the other. So fully with you, I, you know, by definition, I'd call it a dog or pass, but you're not even getting a great dog price. It's just over 50% basically.

So, yeah, no action. We stay in the middleweight division and we take our talents to Josh Friends. Jamie Pickett right now. You're going to have Fremd minus 345 Jamie Pickett plus 275. I think Fremd is going to win. I mean, Jamie Pickett has lost. Three straight, five of his last seven. I just don't really know if he's going to make it too much longer in the UFC.

But minus 350 on Josh Fremnd, who yes, he looked great against Dumas. but before that against Treshaun Gore and Anthony Hernandez, not so much. Yeah, I don't know. I don't really want to lay minus 350 on Frum Deer, though I do think he wins. Yeah, I have the same result, but the inverse of math there of.

I kind of want to believe in Jamie Pickett here, or at least from a betting standpoint, and I kind of want to bet him, but at the same time, I also just don't want to have my money tied up in Jamie Pickett. I think these odds are way, are a little long here. Just I don't trust Josh Frimm to that extent here. But I also just don't want to bet Jamie Pickett. Didn't we both bet Jamie Pickett against Denise Tallulan?

I think we did. We called it the Night Wolf Wolf Pack Wagers. I believe that that is correct. He ended up getting finished in the second round. Yeah, of course we did. Of course we did. We've been on Jamie Pickett. But yeah, that's that. Let's move on to the prelims, a men's bantamway bout. I actually have bets on the next four fights.

Oh, wow. I only have one bet. I'll have two bets. Marcus McGee taking on JP buys, bays, you know, tamano, tamano. Right now, Marcus McGee, in his second UFC fight can be had for minus 360. JP buys coming back at plus 285. Again, I have a lot of props this week, no money lines for me. I'm going to take Marcus McGee by K.L. And maybe these are just the chalk donkey square plays. Minus 135. I know he got a sub last time out, but JP has been dropped eight times, eight times in his last five rounds of fighting.

It's not very good. got dropped multiple times in three of those five and KO'd twice and all of this at the flyweight division. Now he's moving up to Bantamweight to fight a guy that's bigger than him and who hits hard. I mean, Marcus McGee, six of his seven wins come by KO, got a knockdown in his UFC debut on short notice. There's obviously potential for the club and sub here, but I have a hard time seeing Marcus McGee not coming out. here and catching J.P. at some point. I mean, it feels like, I mean, Cody Durdon has one knockdown in his UFC career and it is against JP. I think Marcus McGee is going to catch him. It's great. I might steal this bet for me just because I could use some more action on this card.

And I can't disagree with the single thing you're saying. I mean, I think Marcus McGee is very clearly going to win this fight. And the way he wins fights is by knockout. So I didn't realize that J.P. Bies have been knocked down that many times. Eight times. Eight times. I mean, him not getting finished.

Him not getting finished by Montel Jackson is crazy. He dropped them four times. Like it just felt like he wasn't, I don't know. But yeah, I think McGee's most likely path to victory. Obviously set by the odds, that's clear, is by KOTK. Yeah. I know he got the subtle last time. Minus 1.35. I mean, yeah, it's still probably worth the play. Yeah, so that's what I'm going with. It should be an exciting fight.

Next up, another exciting fight. The man, the King of Chaos Lightway bowed. Terrence McKinney back in the Octagon after just a few weeks away, taking on Mike Breedin right now. You can have Terence McKinney for minus 245 on Draft Kings, Breeden coming back at plus 200. I mean, it's a tradition unlike any other. Greatest thing in combat going for me right now, Terrence McKinney Fight Week, playing the unders. Don't care how much of juice it. I took the under one and a half, minus 227.

Free money, basically. Do I say the stats? I guess it's going to have to come to an end eventually. 18 of 19, Connor. Under one and a half. 19 career fights under one and a half. 15. in the first round.

So that leads me to my second bet on this fight. Terrence McKinney, round one, and yes, I'm playing it at minus money. He has 13 professional victories, 12 of which came in the first round. If he's going to win, it's probably going to come in round one. Took it at minus 125. Breeden also, caoed in the first 90 seconds in two of his last four losses. I mean, I think McKinney has the advantages here.

I think he's going to come out here and do what he does and look to get the finish early. I wouldn't be surprised. I'm a little scared off on betting Terrence McKinney right now just because he's looked odd. It's just been weird to watch his sort of career when he came in. We talked about this a month ago, Terrence McKinney previously fought.

The win over Matt Vivola is, I mean, has aged beautifully. And he's at times looked really good, but he's also looked really bad in spots. And that just, he's a glass cannon. And so probably does get breeding, but the quick turnaround coming off a loss, I'm just a little wary of betting on McKinney personally, but I'm absolutely on the under one and a half. Yeah, the fight doesn't go to a decision is fantastic parlor fodder.

Oh, that's just terrific. L.A. Fahner. Minus 600, minus 700. Whatever it is. Terrence McKinney is a getter we got. And I think that's what's going to happen here. We keep it rolling to a featherweight bout. Francis Fire Marshal taking on Isaac Dolgarian. Delgarian make his UFC debut. Right now, Marshall can be had for minus 166.

Dolgarian plus 140. I don't really know what to expect here Like Dolgarian's 5 and O But he's not really fighting the highest level of competition He hasn't fought in 18 months either But he is thrashing the dudes that he fights And I mean I go back to his amateur career as well Four fights there

He's fought one fine opponent And yeah fine A bunch of people with 500 records Yeah What I am on is the under two and a half took it minus 130 Dolgarian

has never been past three minutes and if you go back to his amateur career nine fights has never been

past the 312 mark yeah I mean if you're going to give me the under two and a half at a good

price at that point yes sure it could be the debut takes the step up this is the one

that finally goes to a decision but Francis has finishing capabilities as well five of his seven wins

come by finish I I feel like Dolgarian's gonna do what he thinks he can do here come in try and get that early finish and if he doesn't i think marshall's going to wear

on him and get the finish i i like the price so uh you know under two and a half for me on this one i got no action here just too many variables that i don't feel confident in place i mean yeah yeah yeah i see a lot of people that having a lot of confidence in the in the dog and bulgarian but um i wouldn't be shocked if he came out and beat him of course nothing would have no confidence in a There is not one outcome shocks me in this fight. Not one. Isaac by sub, Francis by sub, Francis by knockout, Isaac by knockout either of them by decision, split decision, majority decision,

unanimous decision. Not one outcome would I be like, what? I can't believe it. I can't fathom how that happened. I really think there's only one result on this card that would just absolutely shock me. It's Timney going to decision. Yes, yes, yes. It's if the McKinney fight goes to a decision.

I would be like, wow, good things really always come to an end, huh? Yeah, nothing gold can stay. Because Terrence McKinney, since we started this podcast, has fought five times, and I have been on the under one and a half, and fight doesn't go to a decision in a parlay every single time, and every single time it has delivered. I mean, great follow on Twitter, exciting guy. please continue the run

let's get him to bounce back to so we can get them in more exciting fights all right we move to maybe the most anticipated bout on the most anticipated card of Saturday evening heavyweight bout Josh Parisian taking on Martin

Boudet or Martin Boudai whichever one some sort of combination of that right now you can get Boudai for minus to 18 Parisian coming back at plus

180. I know you're on the over. Gotta be. I'm going to be in the over in some capacity, but I'm actually going to take Boudai by decision, took it at plus 200. Really? Yeah.

It's down to plus 165 right now, I think plus 170 on a couple books. That sounds more right. Plus 200. It's a good price. That's a good pick. Yeah. Yeah.

I saw it. I felt like I kind of had to take it. I mean, all three of his UFC wins are by decision. Prisian is a tough dude, man. Only one, only, only been knocked out once in his UFC career, but I feel like Buda is going to use the kill inch, control him. I think he's going to land the more defining shots throughout the rounds. I think he has the ability to out-volume him. And yeah, I mean, I won't be surprised at all if this goes to a decision. And if it does, I would really like to be holding this plus 200 ticket. Um, rather than a minus two hundred. hundred to 15 on the budai money line i mean that's a yeah the the the gap in value there is just terrific um like you said three decisions three fights for budai parisian's gone over two and a half

and four of his five uc bouts um it's probably why the over two and a half line is minus money but it's not even huge minus money it's minus 135 so you you could get a budai over one and a half same game parley at plus money plus one 10 Don't mind that. Don't hate that at all. Don't mind that one bit. Don't hate that. Because there is a world where Boudai gets a late finish.

Late finish, yeah. Given where the line is, if you were getting the Boudai by decision at plus 200 or something, still, I'd probably take that over that SGP. But if the Boudai Bai decisions drop to plus 160 or whatever, that same game probably probably better value there. Yeah, I mean, he's been over one and a half several times. Yeah, like every time. I mean, yeah, one, two, three, four, five straight times for Parisian, five straight times for Budai. Yeah, that's not a bad show. You're getting that one a plus money.

I feel decent about that. That's a good find. I support that. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm quite looking forward to this match. I may do that when that opportunity becomes available. But until then, I'm on the over two and a half. Heavyweight over is bouncing back.

Daryluss. Derek Lewis was hard on heavy. Oh, yeah. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, that was about as bad as it can look for the old H-O's. But I was also on Derek Lewis by Kehoe, so it's fun. Oh, it's beautiful. Brilliant.

Friggin' brilliant. Yeah, one of my biggest regrets not being on Derek Lewis said. That would have been such a fun bet to catch. I still had an immense amount of fun, even losing one of my biggest bets of the night, but that's okay. Hit pause on whatever you're listening to and hit play on your next adventure. This fall get double points on every qualified stay.

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Service fees exclusions and terms apply. We keep it rolling. Strawway Bout. Monserat Ruiz taking on Jacqueline Amaram. Right now. Amarim. I mean, I'm just switching these names up every time I say up. is minus 238 your Ruiz plus 195 um i think it's either a ummarine sub early or Ruiz wins by decision

i have zero thoughts on this fight so i will i've done no research on it so i'll absolutely take your word i mean ummering looked like she was going to get the submission 80 times in the first round last time out against Sam Hughes and she was just never able to finish it. So yeah, wouldn't, how many, how many submission attempts did she get that round? I mean, I'm saying this and it's going to be one. But yeah, I mean, I just don't know if she's built to go the full 15 minutes. Okay, she got three. Three submission attempts total.

Yeah, three submission attempts total. And they were all in that first round. Yeah. It looked like she was going to get it quite a few times. So I really think this is either her getting the sub earlier or Ruiz is just going to wear on her throughout the fight. I mean, she's a beast on the ground. But no real interest in playing it. Definitely no interest in playing Amarima at minus, minus like 250 at this point.

I mean, if I'm going to do anything, I'm going to play the sub, which is minus 165. Yeah, I have zero interested in this at all. I'm going to stay away. Minus 165. Man, I have just no interest. Yeah. Why would you have interest? I was hoping that it was maybe going to be like a plus 100 or like a plus 110 or something, but like, man.

All right, let's keep it rolling. Men's Bantamway about late notice. DeMond Blackshare needed really some of the bolster this card because, yeah, as we're going through it, I'm actually starting to agree with you a little bit more. I mean, this is it's bad, man. And the best part is, the best part is, I just

have to say this. The defenders will be out in force. Oh, they're going to be... Don't you dare say one bad thing about this card. Can we pick it up the pitchforks and coming for us? Don't you dare. Well, you know what? It doesn't even matter because you hate on the UFC

every single week. All you ever do is hate on Dana White and the UFC. I'm like, dude, I freaking love the UFC, man. I gave the UFC plenty of shout. Nashville? Very, very solid card. The UFC

is unbelievable. They're a freight train that cannot be stopped. Like, the next four pay-per-views are stacked to the gills. Like, they are on fire. It's okay. If every once in a while, they put on a dog shit card and we state as

much, it's all right. We're straight. Shooters, Conn. That's just what we are. They've got to meet contract obligations. We're still getting fights. I understand that. We're still going to put bets down. We're still going to break it down. All I'm doing is stating this card might not be as quality as the card next week.

That's all I'm saying. I mean, I don't think it's even a might as a certainty. What? How many contender series people are on this fight card? It's got to be a billion. You see the contender series last? night sure did not me neither I know they hired five people because they had five people win I just want to shout out I want to just give a strong salute to everyone that bets the contender series like and has like a full you are the real troopers and all this like you guys really are in ways I've never been I feel I love it when I see people that are like plus seven units on contender series I'm like fuck that's a great way to spend a Tuesday night that is badass uh shouts to you i feel so bad when people like post their recaps and it's like minus 3.72 units

on contender series i'm like uh god that's a tough you spend a Tuesday night watching contender series losing money on it and then like you you already feel like you're behind the eight ball heading into the weekend because it's the same week like there's nothing worse than uh just like getting your ass kicked on like a contender series a friday night pfell a friday bell to a friday bell tour. There's nothing worse than going into Saturday, going into the UFC card and you're already down like three and a half units. It's just like you wake up with a nasty taste in your mouth.

Like it's just like, ugh. But yeah, a lot of contracts given out last night. I guarantee you that however many there will be five contracts awarded every episode this season because that's what it is. I mean, yeah, you got to fill the cards.

You got to fill the cards. You got to make Jose Johnson versus Damon Blackshear possible. How is it? How is it possible? Can you actually explain to me that we're getting a six-foot bantam weight taking on a 5-10 bantam weight? It's true. Gotta be two of the tallest dudes in the division, right? Like, got to be. It has to be. I thought Sean O'Malley was the tallest, and he's, I think he's 5-11, 5-10. I don't know what Sean O'Malley is off the top of my head. Let's see.

Speaking of Sean O'Mallon. Yeah. Speaking of Sean O'Malley, next week's going to be sick. I'm so close to talking myself into it, Connor. We'll get there next week. I'm so close. Stop. I've been trying real hard to talk myself into it.

I mean, if you get talked into it, I mean, we already know last week with Serrano Hardy. It ain't tough to talk me into losers. And I can be down. I can be down. Back to this fight, I have nothing on this fight and no thoughts on it. my notes man this is short notice wait

Jose Johnson is fucking six feet tall at Bansonway hold on Damon Blackshear is 510 what is going on how is this fight going to happen and then I move on to the next fight I'm not betting this

I think Blackshare is like minus 300 or something too yeah I minus 190 I'm sorry you could convince me if you were really selling it to bet on Damon Blackshire just because Jose Johnson's a two-time contender series guy. And I feel like if you just bet against people who took two contender series efforts to get

into the promotion, you'd probably be doing okay. Well, here's the thing. Not only is this fight just a roller coaster and I have no idea what's going on with it, I'm looking at the line. Blackshire opens minus 200, immediately drops to minus 250, then plummets down to minus 350, He stays there for several hours, back up to minus 330, minus 3.30, minus 310, minus 290, minus 265. And all sorts of movement. He now finds himself at minus 185.

So we started at minus 200 just yesterday at 3.34 p.m. Went on that whole roller coaster ride. And now this morning at 916, we settle in at minus 185. A lot of action on the second fight of the UFC 70s. no market on earth that moves more than MMA. It truly is. I talk to people that are

serious betters in other sports and I'm just like, oh yeah, I played it at minus 115, but now it's minus 145. And like, that's not even one of the bigger ones in MMA and they're just like, what? They're like, it moved that much. I'm like, buddy, that's nothing. Like, I played plus monies that close

at like minus 220 or something. It's like some of these lines are insane. guessing real hard on MMA all the time. Yes. Either way, let's get to the last fight of the night

for the UFC card. Juliana Miller taking on Luana Santos. I trusted Miller last time. I got made to look like a fool. Don't need to play it again.

Maybe this is a by-low spot on her, but she has five pro fights. Santos has six. Don't need the curtain jerker for this one. Yeah. I think this is a by-lo spot on her, but I

don't want to hold the ticket because that last one scared me off. I do think sort of objectively this is a biolo spot. She did get beat down by Veronica Hardy. Yeah, Veronica Hardy's yeah, I'm not betting it. Dude, I'm not betting it, but I kind of want to bet it is where I'm at.

She was like a minus 400 and she got absolutely throttled on a woman making like a three year layoff return. I'm looking at the poster right now. Not a bad poster. This is one of those posters that I'll randomly come across in like 18 months and be like, oh, yeah, that, that fight card did happen, huh? That is a fight card that happened?

We did break that down for an hour and a half, and I did spend seven hours watching that. I actually, that happened yesterday with the Viviana Arrugio, Alexa Grasso card. from last October. I don't know if you remember that one. Vaguely sounds familiar. I saw the poster and it's like all these memories come flooding back. I'm like, oh, yeah, that did happen.

What I do remember about that card is we both just nailed Grasso by decision. Plus 130. It was like the easiest bet on all of eternity. She is a consistent winner in that regard. Unless she's finding those, she's ruining my whole life. Unless she's ruining my entire life.

Get back. Get back time in next month. We'll see. We'll see. Valentin is like a minus two something. Like, Bailo. It's a Bilo spot.

Bilo at minus, minus 2.65. We'll see. We'll see. All right. Do you have any Belltor action? Let's talk about boxing action. Boxing. Oh, yeah, Anthony Joshua.

Yeah, what is... It would be Joshua, actually. What is the line on that? Minus 10,000? I don't know, because, you know, Heleneas is, like, recent change of opponent. Yeah, yeah, of course.

Minutes 1,600. I haven't actually looked at the odds. What's Anthony Joshua by Keog? Even though I don't trust this fucker at all... Hisney Joshua by Keogh is minus 400. Over under, is it 5.5. I have, all right, so I have played Anthony Joshua several times by K.O., and several times I have eaten my words for it. I think he's probably going to knock him out.

He's going to knock out. He has this. Did you watch the Hellenius Wilder fight? Sure did. He got just barely touched. It's one of the nasty knockouts I've ever seen. Just like, Deontay Wilder's power is disturbing. I love it.

And like the fact that, first of all, the fact that this dude has 43 wins and 42 or by knockout, it's just so absurd. Just speak to Tyson Fury too, man. Yeah. Absolute beef. That fight is why Francis Ingano has no shot against him. Oh, do you know how much money I have on Tyson Fury? I hope it's all of your money.

Just literally all of your money Yeah no I actually put like 10 units on Tyson Fury at minus 400 That line is long gone he's like minus 1500 But like the flutter in my stomach when I saw it was only minus 400 Yeah had to had to hit the deposit button real quick Great bet Yeah if Tyson Ferreier loses I'm uh rent's not getting paid boys Yeah I mean Anthony Joshua

by knockout might be a decent little play Anthony Joshua What's the fight As a parley piece What's the fight Doesn't go to a decision Minus

Minus 450 Minus 5 minus 500 something Here's what I'm thinking I mean you have to think that Hellenius Is just getting a massive payday

Right Like five days notice Four days notice Here's what I'm thinking McKin' fight Doesn't go to a decision Parlay piece Joshua Hellenius fight doesn't go to a decision.

I love that. There's two fights. There's two fights on this Belator card that I also like really, really like violence for. One being Sullivan Colley taking on Hamza Saleem. Sullivan Collie, dude does not leave the first round. Like, just six professional fights all in. did in the first round just doesn't end the first round

doesn't leave the first round and his opponent is 7 and 6 this just feels like the biggest Bellator like get that back spot the guy is 0 and 2 and Bellator I mean just back in December he got

a CO'd in 50 seconds by a guy who is 4 and 2 yeah it just feels like an absolute set up match for Sullivan Colley. That one doesn't go to a decision. And then just, Bellator is just, it's just so good sometimes.

Like, they're just so on brand Bellator. Curtin Jerker. Michael Blockis, taking on Eli Mefford. Blockis was an All-American wrestler at Minnesota. And Eli Mefford is 0 and 4 and has been finished in three of his four loss.

and I just just feels like a set-up match I mean Belator does great set-up matches Why is it own for that? Why is it own for fighting on a promotion of Belator's level? I think you answered that question already.

Fuck. I think you answered it. Is that all your Bellator action? Those are all like the I really like those four as a violence parlay. Honestly, you could lose the blockus Mefford just because there are a ton of question

marks around it, but it just is like the biggest, like have like a little bit of like, like, hide the agenda of squash matchery. Block is inside the distance, good parley piece. It's all then collie inside the distance, good parley place. I think Logan Storley is a good parley piece. I have him as far like this. He's very much going to just be Brennan Ward. It's going to be a shame.

Yeah, I mean, Brennan Ward like is, yeah, getting like a main event, a top tier matchup. Brennan Ward, a fun story for Bellator. A fun fighter, too. Fun fighter, too. fighter, let's throw him in there with the least fun guy we've got on the roster. Yeah, what's the deal with that now that I think about it? Yeah, I mean, like, he really is. It's bad vibes, man.

I mean, he has what, like a ridiculous amount of fights that have not gone to a decision. Actually, all but one of his professional fights have not gone to a decision. 23, 22 have ended within the distance, going up against Logan Storley, who's got quite a few decisions. yeah honestly don't understand this matchmaking at all what's the underlined at

in that fight I don't see it up so you can find it on a other book but not in front of me I don't have it looking for it right now I see you are

while you're looking for it I will say I have one other bet on this I'm believing in tall Steve Maori against Valentina Woldovsky it's plus 185 yeah don't mind that I just don't believe

in Moldovsky. He's a fine fighter. He's not a terrific one. Mowry undefeated, you know, big dude, got some ability on the floor. Let's see what happens. Yeah, I don't mind that. Tall, tall Steve Mowry, shout out. Under four and a half minus 135, I don't hate that. Like, I know, I know Storley is like a decision. It's the unstoppable force meets the immovable object. Will Brigham Ward's refusal to go to decisions match up against Logan Storpe? The guy hates decisions. Logan Storley loves them so much, though. Yeah, yeah.

I would say that under four and a half feels more likely to me. Yeah. But I would be, it would not be a comfortable bet, I'm assuming. Yeah, I mean, like, when was the last time Logan Storley won by finish? 2019. Four years ago? Yeah. Also, that was an arm injury.

Just, so it's not like it was a... Well, it's still pretty good, man. This is a tough matchup for Brennan Word. I mean, he is like, Yaroslav Amasov is the only man to beat him. And he's beat him twice.

And that's it. That's the only person who's just done anything to him. So real good fighter. Not the most exciting one, and this is a bit of odd matchmaking, but I'm going to bet Logan's story as a parlorice, and that's good enough for me. All right. Sounds like we're all set here.

I think we're done. I think we nailed the biggest weekend in combat sports history. 17 fights on the Bellator card. 17. That's impressive. That's a lot of fights, man. You guys got to do fewer than that. Belator 300 coming up soon.

It's going to be electric. Major announcements on the show today. Major announcements, major announcements. Regarding Belvoir 300. By the time you hear this podcast, those announcements will probably already be out there, but maybe not. Yeah, they should be. And if so. Yeah.

It's going to be fun. Yeah. I know what we're looking at. Yeah. What are we? What are we looking at? Can't. I cannot say anything.

You're professional, and that's where I respect to. We'll talk about it next week. We'll talk about it next week. Yes, it is bellatory. 300. It's big time. 300? Big time.

Yes. You will know shortly, though. Just a matter of a few hours. And honestly, by the time you listen to it, it will more than likely be out to the world. And we'll have that to look forward to. What I'm looking forward to is next week. UFC 292, the promotion makes its return to Boston. Al Jermaine Sterling taking on Sean O'Malley.

Not just is Sean O'Malley getting a title shot? This might be a three-star card, Connor. No, it's a three-star card. For sure. There's no doubt it's a three-star card. Not only is Sean O'Malley getting a title shot, he's getting his first main event. It just feels like the guy is just like constantly,

like just the star of the show. Now he actually is. He's getting the main event. KSW85, Saladin Parnas, finally making his way to the ring over there. We got Wiley Jean. We got Cody Garbrand, Mario Batista. Don't know what the line's going to be, but Mario Batista by K.O. sounds real tasty to me. Jeff Neal, Ian Gary,

Marlon Chito Vera getting in there. I mean, this is a three-star card. Andre Petroski, Gerald Mearschart. who's going to get subbed quicker Chris Wyden Chris Wyden He's back, baby Brad to Farris

Big dog Big dog Don't ain't Wait he's a big dog Yeah don't hate that I will be betting that If he's a bit He is a big dog

May or may not have already thrown a little cheddar down on old Wyatman Remember when you just said you hit the deposit button I will be Brad Tavar's is not even in good form anymore. Like he's clearly on the downslope. What are we doing here? Yeah.

Yeah. Well. Natalia Silva, I mean, if you like the flyweight division, you like Natalia Silva. I can assure you of that taking on Andrea Lee, Marina Morose, Corrine Silva. I mean, we got Robocop on the card. And 10 fights right now, they're going to add the two. tough finalies, which I think are also going to be very fun cards, very fun fights. Kurt Holliba put on an absolute banger last night against Jason Knight.

And then we might get Rico to Shulow, who's just a brawler that is also from Boston, praying that he wins. And yeah, dude, it's, I'm really looking forward to this card. 2.92 is going to be sweet. It's a very good one. haven't been paying attention to anything you were talking about tough because I was looking up for my house to bet on Chris Wydenman. Oh, yes, yes.

Good. I cannot believe this line right now. Yeah, I got in on them. What are you seeing it at? Plus 2.15. I got in on, I think, at plus 240. But yeah, but yeah, I was, I was pretty shocked. I mean, I was like, who is laying minus 300 on Brad Tavares?

Yeah. One more champion. Who's laying that price on Tavar's? This is a real question. If you avoid the fight, okay. I understand avoiding betting this fight, but it's not a soul alive who should be betting 265 on Tavares in my always wrong opinion. But that's next week.

We got to get out of here. Yes, let's please get out of here. Great times, as always, on No Bet's Bard. Next week, 292. We're shipping up to Boston. Love y'all. Podcast Network.